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Back to the Table
Strategic Vision vol. 10, no. 51 (December, 2021) Back to the Table
Negotiations needed to reduce rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait
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Shao-cheng Sun
The USS Ralph Johnson operates with an AH-1Z Viper and MH-60 R helicopter near the coast of Misawa, Japan.
photo: Mario Ramirez
Since 2016, relations across the Taiwan Strait have become very dangerous. China’s military threat against Taiwan has intensified. In the first four days of October 2021, China’s air force intruded into Taiwan’s air defense zone more than 150 times in the largest incursions ever seen. Military observers warn that a Chinese invasion seems imminent. In response, the US military presence in the Taiwan Strait has become more visible. Small teams of American troops, including Marines and Army Special Forces, have conducted training sessions in Taiwan with the Republic of China (ROC) military. If there is to be a war between the United States and China, the trigger will likely be Taiwan. This article explores China’s intentions to conquer Taiwan, the impact of losing Taiwan, and the risk of military conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Achieving what the Chinese call “reunification” with Taiwan would be the biggest feather in PRC President Xi Jinping’s hat. The Chinese government has made it clear that if Taiwan declares independence, it would be an instant trigger for war. After Tsai Ing-wen won the ROC presidency in 2016, she refused to accept the “1992 Consensus,” which was embraced by her predecessor, former President Ma Ying-jeou. If Xi thinks that achieving peaceful unification with Taiwan is not going to happen, he will likely resort to the use of force. To that end, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is now ramping up its readiness for an invasion of Taiwan.
The Chinese government claims Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory. It has brainwashed its citizens into believing that unification with Taiwan is a matter of national pride—a sacred mission to realize the “China Dream.” If Xi walks back from his stated commitment of achieving unification, it would be the end of his legitimacy to ultimate power and control. This is a risk he cannot take.
Taiwan occupies a highly important geostrategic position, located at the center of the first island chain. Most Western strategists learn to view Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier. If the PLA occupies Taiwan, this will further enhance its power projection capability and allow Beijing to project military power far into the Pacific Ocean. This would greatly restrict the United States and its allies’ capability to navigate freely. It would also pose a grave threat to their national interests and security.
With the recent rise in the intensity of the China threat, Taiwan has experienced a very close relationship with the United States, particularly after President Tsai took office, during whose tenure relations between Washington and Taipei have greatly improved. For example, the US Congress passed several legislative acts (Taiwan Travel Act in 2018, TAIPEI Act in 2020, etc.) in support of Taiwan, which committed the US government to helping Taiwan improve its international standing. Presidents Trump and Biden have both dispatched cabinet members and other ranking officials to Taiwan, to strengthen bilateral relations. The visits enraged leaders in Beijing, who view the United States as violating China’s domestic affairs. More importantly, the quantity and quality of US arms sales to Taiwan have increased. Chinese media threatened the United States and warned it to stop supporting Taiwan’s “separatist forces.”
US Marines provide security during Exercise Resolute Dragon 21 between US and Japanese forces.
photo: Mario Ramirez
Since World War II, the United States has been the leading power in the Pacific. Today the United States has a significant number of military forces stationed in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. The US military presence is an essential component in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region. If the United States failed to defend Taiwan, regional security would be greatly impacted: US allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines might begin to doubt the sincerity of the US security commitments to them. America’s leadership role in the region would be seriously tarnished.
President Tsai poses with Sandra Oudkirk, the current director of the American Institute in Taiwan.
photo: ROC Presidential Office
Taiwan has a robust economy and is a global leader in high technology. By the end of 2021, it had the fifth-largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, at US$545 billion. Today, Taiwan dominates the outsourcing of semiconductor manufacturing. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes more than half of all made-to-order chips globally, and 90 percent of the most advanced processors used in today’s iPhone, supercomputers, and artificial intelligence applications. TSMC is also making chips for US fighter jets, Mars probes, and the highest-end processes. If Taiwan becomes a Chinese province, this would give Beijing control of Taiwan’s economy and its high-tech industry, and would seriously disrupt the supply chain of advanced chips that the United States desperately needs.
The loss of Taiwan to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would also be a blow for global democracy, and would only serve to further embolden Xi Jinping’s hardline policies. After Xi consolidated his power, he began to tighten social control in China. First, China has been abusing the human rights of its ethnic minorities, particularly the Uighurs in Xinjiang. More than one million Uighurs are currently imprisoned in so-called re-education camps. Second, the CCP’s involvement in Hong Kong’s political affairs has been controversial and violent. The Party’s control over politics in the former British colony triggered a historic record of student protests and police crackdowns. Third, the Chinese government routinely bans anything it deems could reflect Western democratic values, including reality TV shows, boy bands, and foreign computer games. Lastly, in a move inviting comparisons to Chairman Mao, studying Xi Jinping. Thought has been made compulsory in China’s primary schools. The educational control of the PRC has become more aggressive. If a democratic Taiwan is forcefully taken over by China, the democratic values in the world that the United States earnestly helped establish will be seriously diminished.
The regional and global balance of power would also shift to China if Taiwan falls. By the end of the 1990s, the cross-strait military balance was already beginning to tilt toward China. With annual double-digit increases in military spending, the PLA has acquired innovative weapons in both quality and quantity. At the same time, the PLA has increased its military training and exercises. China now has thousands of ballistic missiles deployed along its coast. Those ballistic missiles are targeting Taiwan. If Taiwan falls into the hands of the Chinese, the balance of power between the two superpowers will greatly lean toward China.
China’s military buildup is aimed at taking over Taiwan and preventing the United States from intervening in a cross-strait conflict. Chinese leaders believe that their biggest obstacle to forcing unification is US intervention. When the United States attacked Iraq in 1991, the PLA intensely studied the US military strategies used in Operation Desert Storm. In any future military campaign against Taiwan, the PLA is preparing to prevent US military intervention. Despite the economic slowdown due to the impact of COVID-19, China’s defense budget in 2021 increased by 6.8 percent. Moreover, China’s military buildup in such fields as cyber, space, information technology, joint operations, precision strike, and nuclear arsenals, are of grave concern to the US military. Facing a rising military threat from China, there are some potential risks between these two superpowers.
In the face of likely intervention from US forces, the PLA is focused on an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy. They seek to prevent US forces from using overseas bases, while denying US assets the freedom to maneuver within striking distance of Chinese territory. China is developing some of the world’s most advanced weapons systems, including space-based weapons, laser weaponry, drones, and hypersonic missiles. In 2015, China unveiled the Dong-Feng 26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that can strike US aircraft carriers as far away as Guam. China’s increased military buildup has pushed the United States to increase its military response in the Taiwan Strait. Since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, US warships have sailed through the Taiwan Strait monthly.
US-China frictions are increasing, and a new Cold War is looming large in the region. With their heavyhanded assertiveness in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as Hong Kong, Chinese leaders have greatly tarnished China’s image in the world. At the start of COVID-19, the Chinese government attempted to cover up the outbreak. This eventually resulted in a worldwide pandemic. AntiChinese sentiment is on the rise. A new alliance was announced between the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom, to counter China’s assertiveness in the Pacific. Far from backing down, Chinese foreign and security policies have become even more hostile. President Xi Jinping also claimed that “anyone who dares to bully us will have their heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel.”
US commitment
US resolve against China is also increasing. When asked by CNN anchor Anderson Cooper if the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack by China, President Biden replied, “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.” A White House spokesperson later walked back the statement, however, clarifying that there had been no change in the US policy toward China. The PRC Foreign Ministry responded that, when it comes to issues related to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, there is no room for China to compromise or make concessions. If a war occurs across the Taiwan Strait, US defense of Taiwan is possible, because of the rising anti-Chinese sentiment at home and abroad.
Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping prepares to receive Russian President Vladimir Putin.
photo: Kremlin.ru
According to some military observers, if the United States intervenes in a cross-strait military conflict to- day, this might result in an all-out war. Since a war across the Taiwan Strait would be extremely costly, all parties should de-escalate and prevent armed conflict from happening. When written in Chinese, the word “crisis” is composed of two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity. Now is the time for strategic planners to come up with creative ideas to diminish the crisis.
Incentives and pressures
German political scientist Stefan Wolff’s study on curbing the tension of military conflicts extracts lessons from Northern Ireland, Liberia, and Timor to show that leadership, diplomacy, and institutional design are effective tools in forging peace. Leadership needs to be determined and visionary in its commitment to peace. Diplomacy needs to apply the right mix of incentives and pressures to help them reach an equitable compromise. Institutional design requires innovative thinking and flexible implementation.
If these three tools have worked on war-torn countries, then the ROC government might consider learning these lessons and taking the initiative. First, President Tsai Ing-wen could publicly express her strong desire to build peace across the Taiwan Strait. Based on the principle of “seeking common ground while reserving differences,” she could propose a summit with Xi Jinping to pursue the solution for peace between Taiwan and China, like the Trump-Kim summit, or the Ma-Xi summit in Singapore. Second, the Taiwan government could request that the United States, or another third party, set up a diplomatic mechanism for dialogue and conflict resolution between Taiwan and China. Other countries in the region could also facilitate a constructive platform to make sure that Taiwan and China can find ways to live with each other.
Third, the governments of the ROC and the PRC have set up the Mainland Affairs Council and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, respectively, for handling cross-strait issues. These two organizations should come up with creative ideas and flexible policies for implementation. Taiwan could suggest a “no independence” proposal and seek crossstrait confidence-building measures in exchange for a PRC promise to forsake the use of force. As stated by Stefan Wolff, the process of dealing with conflict is full of setbacks. It might take a generation to accomplish, but it requires today’s leaders to take responsibility and to learn the right lessons. Taiwan and China need to be prepared to return to the negotiating table if the agreement stalls.
Dr. Shao-cheng Sun is an assistant professor at The Citadel specializing in China’s security, East Asian affairs, and cross-strait relations. He can be reached for comment at ssun@citadel.edu
