Give Peace a Chance

Strategic Vision vol. 11, no. 52 (May, 2022) Give Peace a Chance

Russia-Ukraine war should invigorate Taiwan’s efforts at cross-strait peace

Charles Yang

US Marine Cpl. Drizzt Garcia-Washburn of the 3d Marine Division, provides security on Okinawa, Japan.

photo: Ojian Gosun

The ongoing Russian-Ukraine war has been called the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. Most discussions about the war center on the strategies of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and speculation about Russia’s endgame. The Republic of China (ROC) has been paying close attention to Ukraine’s defensive actions and looking for lessons that it can apply to its own defenses. Despite the tragedy of war, the lessons of Ukraine do provide some reasons for optimism when it comes to Taiwan’s defense and security.

There have been increasing cross-strait tensions in recent years, and what happens in the Taiwan Strait has enormous ramifications for the entire Indo-Pacific. The three major players—the United States, the ROC, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) —should pay close attention to the Ukraine conflict and look for opportunities to foster peace and avoid war.

First, Ukrainian forces have shown a remarkable willingness to stand up to Russian aggression, surprising most observers with their ability to harass and destroy Russian forces. They have also shown that smaller countries can stand up to larger, more powerful countries. This has given hope to citizens in Taiwan, and has boosted public morale. For example, a March 2022 survey in Taiwan on the Ukraine war and Taiwan security revealed that 70.2 percent of respondents are willing to defend Taiwan if China takes military action against the country. This is a substantial increase from the 40.3 percent who said likewise in a poll published just three months prior, before the Russian invasion. It is obvious that Taiwanese do not view the PRC as invincible as they may have before—a development that may be helpful to deter conflict in the region.

Amphibious assault carrier USS Tripoli (LHA 7) cruises through the Pacific Ocean.

photo: Christopher Sypert

Impact of globalization

Second, the war shows the impact of globalization. In the past, military analysts and experts had a challenging time predicting whether tensions would lead to open conflict, and the international community was usually taken by surprise when such conflagrations did occur. However, after having more than two decades to observe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s style of leadership, and especially after his 2014 military seizure of the Crimea, Western governments were able to determine with a high degree of confidence that Russia did indeed intend to wage war again in Ukraine. Moreover, Russia’s intentions and ambitions in Ukraine had been a subject of international scrutiny even before the first shots were fired. Prior to the war, after witnessing an increase in the number of Russian troops massing on the RussiaUkraine border, the head of NATO urged Moscow to be transparent about its military intentions.

The largely unified use of sanctions against Russia by Western governments sends a message to would be aggressors that a country should reduce financial ties with the West if they plan to start a conflict with countries in the Western camp. According to the Institute of International Finance, Russia has been working to sanction-proof its economy in recent years. Moscow has reduced its dependence on the US dollar and other common reserve currencies and built a fat reservoir of foreign exchange reserves as a bulwark against sanctions, trying to protect the value of the ruble. In addition to buying gold, Russia has shifted its holdings toward Chinese and Japanese assets and away from French, American, and German ones. According to a report by the Institute of International Finance, Russian banks have tried to reduce exposure to risks related to a loss of US dollar access in recent years. These steps were taken to turn Russia into an economic fortress.

Several signs show that China is following suit, trying to reduce its dependence on the US dollar, but Beijing has still steadily accumulated US Treasury securities over the last few decades. In addition, while subsequent US administrations have paid lip service to the need for policies of decoupling and diversifying their supply chains away from China, the PRC has followed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s position, enunciated in his keynote speech at the opening session of the 2017 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, in which he rejected such protectionism and instead made the case for advancing the cause of economic globalization.

Following on this idea, PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi chaired a 20 May, 2022, dialogue of foreign ministers from the BRICS countries and emerging markets, at which he called for linking instead of decoupling, and complementing the chain instead of disrupting the chain. In this way, Wang opined, developing countries could better integrate into the international division of labor and cooperation, and share the dividends of globalization.

The PRC has officially applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade pact. This is a big step for the PRC. After all, The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the CPTPP’s predecessor, was a deliberate attempt by the United States to counter China’s growing regional and global trade influence. Beijing promised that it would push deregulation of the private sector, reduce subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and embrace globalization. This suggests that, like the days when “China’s peaceful rise” was being used as Beijing’s public-relations mantra, the PRC still needs a peaceful regional environment in which to complete its financial and geopolitical maneuvering and place its economy into an unassailable position of influence.

Economic backlash

China will need that level of leverage if it is to survive the sanctions and other economic backlash that will surely follow any military attempt to make good on Xi’s desire to annex Taiwan. As to the issue of Taiwan as a possible battlefield, there is one scenario and two trends: Taiwanese are increasingly concerned about the possibility of war, and this has produced some clear perspectives. One trend has been to discuss ways to bolster its defensive capabilities, such as by lengthening the country’s military conscription period from four months to one year. This is an important step to prepare for war. The other trend has been to examine possible ways to avoid war altogether. This is because Taiwanese see how bloody the war in Ukraine has been. It is unclear that which of these two trends—broadly speaking, resistance or appeasement—will gain the societal upper hand, but at the very least, this public conversation shows that the Taiwanese people understand they can no longer rest on their laurels, preferring the status quo for now, and putting off acting on the China threat for future generations to deal with.

Soldiers from the ROC Army’s 269th Brigade take part in an exercise.

photo: ROC Presidential Office

Taiwan’s Special Forces operators engage in a training exercise.

photo: ROC MND

Reduce tensions

It is therefore incumbent upon all three countries— the United States, the PRC and the ROC—to learn their respective lessons from Ukraine. For Taiwan, Taipei should have the willingness to see the signs and reduce the tensions in its relations with the PRC. After all, people have generally drawn parallels between the war in Ukraine and Taiwan’s situation, and believe that Taiwan will become the main battlefield if war breaks out. For example, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Australian Parliament on 31 March, 2022, via video link, where he suggested that a Russian victory over Ukraine would embolden China to attack Taiwan. “The most terrible thing is that if we don’t stop Russia now, if we don’t hold Russia accountable, then some other countries of the world who are looking forward to similar wars against their neighbors will decide that such things are possible for them as well,” Zelenskyy said.

Another example happened in Japan. During a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo on 23 May, 2022, US President Joe Biden was asked: “You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?”Biden responded in the affirmative.

The ROC government has a responsibility to hold public discourse about the possibility of war in Taiwan. It is helpful to understand different positions while working towards a consensus. However, most discussions in Taiwan have magnified Ukraine’s advantages and focused on its high morale. For example, many media reports have ignored cases where Ukrainian troops have shot captured Russian soldiers. They tend only to report alleged atrocities committed by Russian soldiers. This media bias is not conducive to helping the public understand the horrible realities of war.

Most discussions about what Taiwan should do to strengthen its own defenses have included the need to lengthen the conscription period from four months to one year. ROC Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng remarked that if a cross-strait conflict were to break out, four months of military training would be insufficient, as the soldiers would not be able to deal with the realities of combat. Some people, citing the results of various public surveys, claim that the political climate in Taiwan appears to be shifting, and the idea of extending mandatory service would be likely to get public support.

More emphasis should be placed on creating opportunities for dialogue between the ROC and the PRC. Unfortunately, while ROC President Tsai Ing-wen has signaled a willingness to engage in talks, Beijing continues to insist on adherence to its “One China” principle as a precondition for talks, essentially shutting down that potential avenue of cooperation. As a result, the PRC has not agreed to engage in dialogue with the ROC for several years. One step that Taiwan could take to improve relations with the PRC would be to restart cross-strait exchanges on non-political issues. Perhaps restrictions on the Three Mini Links and direct cross-strait flights could be lifted as a goodfaith gesture, once the Covid-19 pandemic is over.

True globalization

For its part, the PRC should do more to promote true economic globalization, rather than transparently seeking to supplant the Washington Consensus with the Beijing Consensus. China must also cease its provocative air and naval activities near Taiwan. Some countries believe that fair trade is a necessary route to make globe trade sustainable, and are still skeptical of Xi’s sincerity to fulfill CPTTP obligations for fair trade. They note that China has pledged to discipline SOEs, industrial subsidies, and other trade-distorting practices before, and it has a poor record of following through on these and other promises. Xi has sometimes been known to reverse previous reforms and to continue providing state support to SOEs. Therefore, the PRC should continually push development policies for private firms.

F-16s from the 80th Fighter Squadron are parked at the end of the runway at Kadena Air Base, Japan.

photo: Yosselin Perla

Seaman Xi Chan stands lookout on the flight deck of the guided missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) as it transits through the Taiwan Strait.

photo: Samuel Hardgrove

Next, there is a contradiction between the PRC’s provocative air and naval activity near Taiwan and Beijing’s claim that it desires to maintain a peaceful environment. According to the PRC, the provocative activity is aimed at people who support Taiwanese independence. However, most Taiwanese want to maintain the cross-strait status quo, rather than pursue independence right away. The PRC’s provocations increasingly make Taiwanese feel threatened. The PRC’s aggressive actions might actually be helping the Taiwan independence movement. China’s aggressive practices also raise concerns in the United States and Japan, and have resulted in a renewed debate in Tokyo over whether to alter Article 9 of its pacifist Constitution, which prevents Japan from providing meaningful military assistance to Taiwan.

The lessons of the Ukraine war for United States are perhaps most important. For one thing, Biden’s economic sanctions have proven useless to influence Russia’s warmaking. Indeed, despite the US actions designed to dissuade Putin, CBS News reported on 27 May, 2022, that the Russian rouble was the best-performing currency in the world this year. It has been suggested that Western sanctions, far from harming Putin, have only strengthened him.

The US should therefore push the process of globalization when it meets such challenges. In addition, people will also wonder if the next US strategy can make deterrence work when it faces challenges in the western Pacific. Therefore, it may be a good time for the United States to join the CPTPP and return that body to its original stated goal.

In conclusion, although the Russo-Ukrainian War provides reasons for optimism over Taiwan’s security, it is important for Taipei to continue to debate the implications and lessons of this war. Reintroducing mandatory military service as a means to increase its security is but the first step. n

Dr. Charles Yang is an adjunct associate professor in the Department of Public Administration and Management at Chinese Culture University in Taipei. He graduated from the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University. He can be reached at: d88341003@ntu.edu.tw