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Balanced Perspective
Strategic Vision vol. 11, no. 52 (May, 2021) Balanced Perspective
Media narratives paint overly-simplistic view of Russian operations in Ukraine
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Aswin Lin
Russian tanks roll through the streets of Ukraine.
photo: Manhhai
It has been several months since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine. The conflict—which was predicted to end quickly, just as the Crimea Conflict did in 2014—did not live up to these expectations. The media, especially Western media, reported that Russia was deadlocked and exhausted, thanks to the heroic efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and people, and of course, the charismatic leadership of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Many media reports are saying that Russia is becoming desperate, tormented by the economic sanctions imposed by 39 countries. It is undeniable that the Russian economy has been hit hard by these sanctions. Protests took place in several places in Russia, and talk of a coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin was also raised. However, is Russia really deadlocked in this conflict, or is there another interpretation of events that we do not hear because it is not being reported by the media? This article will examine why the operation seems to have been moving so slowly for the Russians.
Meaningful results
Many media outlets have speculated that Russia is desperate and Putin is very thirsty for meaningful results. There are already some reports that insisted Russian forces would eventually resort to chemical or nuclear weapons. Such speculation has been especially rife on social media. Is Russia really as miserable as the mainstream media describe? According to an interview conducted by The Harvard Gazette with Professor Matthew Bunn from the Harvard Kennedy School, from a purely military point of view, there is no military target that nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC) weapons can destroy that Russia cannot destroy with its conventional air power and missiles. The main purpose for using NBC weapons would be to frighten the Ukrainian people and force them to surrender.
If Putin wants to force the Ukrainian government to surrender, he could just give instructions to flatten Ukrainian cities with conventional weapons. Russia does not need to resort to NBC attacks. Unfortunately, a lot of Russia’s capabilities remain a secret, which means it is possible that those weapons are non-existent and that the media is reporting mere speculation.
According to the US Department of Defense, on 21 March, 2022, a senior defense official held a background briefing on the current situation regarding Russia’s military operations in Ukraine up to week five. At the briefing, the officer stated that The Pentagon believes that Russia has committed more than 60 percent of its fixed-wing and rotary-wing capability to the Ukraine theater. So Russia has put a lot into this fight, and they still have a lot left. We have to recognize that the Russian Armed Forces are taking casualties every day. The overall situation is very fluid, and there are many different possible scenarios which might play out.
Information war
In the modern age, information is one of the most important weapons of war. Disinformation can sow chaos that can turn things around if properly deployed. Watching endless videos of exploding Russian tanks posted by Ukraine’s government can give Western viewers a false impression that Ukrainian forces are on the verge of victory, especially in the absence of any counter-information from Russia’s side, because the Western media has completely censored that perspective. So far, the public has the impression that Ukraine is enjoying an overwhelming advantage over Russia and is completely crushing Russia’s military out in the field. The unvarnished truth may not be so simple.
A bombed out bridge on the Irpin River in Ukraine demonstrates Russia's destructive capabilities.
photo: Manhhai
Soldiers with the Carpathian Sich Battalion reviewing drone footage of an attack against Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
photo: Manhhai
In the aforementioned interview, the Pentagon official also emphasized that Russia is taking casualties
every day. They are losing tanks, artillery units, helicopters, and fighter jets. However, the Russians are not yet out of the fight. Russian troops are still using the tactics they used in Syria when Putin decided to intervene in 2015. It would be naive to think that Russia is currently carrying out maneuvers like the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Rather, the tactics Moscow is using in its military offensive in Ukraine are similar to those it employed in Syria. In an interview with the Arabic news channel Al Hadath, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pointed out that the Russian use of air power to destroy entire cities and villages in Syria prior to incursion by ground forces is being duplicated in Ukraine.
Moreover, “the former commander of the Russian army in Syria was recently appointed as commander of the Russian army in Ukraine,” Kuleba was reported as saying, concluding that this presaged more damage caused, more civilians dying, and more cities destroyed due to indiscriminate Russian attacks.
The US Congress provided US$13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine’s military in April, before US President Joe Biden in May signed the controversial US$40 billion aid package to help finance the country’s fight against Russia’s attack. Prior to this, Washington had sent Ukraine various weapons and other military equipment. An US$800 million security package announced on 16 March, 2022 included 800 Stinger and 2,000 Javelin missiles. According to Reuters, the United States has trained the Ukrainian armed forces on prior occasions. On 20 September, 2021, Ukrainian soldiers took part in joint military exercises with US and other NATO troops. Ukraine was invited to participate after Russia and Belarus began holding large-scale drills that alarmed the West. Given all this support, it would be foolhardy for Vladimir Putin to think this war will end quickly.
Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoy, chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, told reporters that during the first month of the Russian operation in Ukraine a total of 1,351 Russian servicemen had been killed, with 3,825 injured. This is far below Western media estimates. Citing NATO, The Wall Street Journal reported that up to 40,000 Russian troops, of the 190,000 that had marched into Ukraine, had been killed, wounded, taken prisoner, or are missing in action. While this latter casualty estimate remains unconfirmed, if it proves to be even close to accurate, Ukrainian defenders can be said to have decimated their Russian invaders, according to the original meaning of that term.
At the time of writing, the Pentagon had observed that Russian troops had withdrawn from cities to the north and west, such as Kiev and Kharkiv. Pentagon officials admit, however, that Russia is making progress in the Donbass Region. Judging from this situation, it can be assumed that the purpose of this military operation is the demilitarization of that contested Region. Currently, Russia is on the move, trying to make a circle by attacking Izyum, Lyman, and Severodonetsk. If Russia really can exert complete control in the eastern and southern zones, it will be easier to reinforce personnel and streamline logistics, which will make things more difficult for Ukraine. Based on this assessment, Russia is far from exhausted.
Holding power
On paper at least, the Russian military is one of the best equipped in the world. Putin is also not someone who does not understand conflict and geopolitics. As a former KGB agent, Putin knows very well how to hold on to power. He predicted the sanctions placed on Russia when the military operation in Ukraine was launched. If Russia increases the number of personnel, and the West reacts in order to balance these forces, the priority placed on Ukraine’s defense needs would serve to worsen the economic and energy security of Western Europe.
Russia still has ways of evading sanctions. Barred from the global SWIFT global messaging network that banks use to make cross-border payments, Russian Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoy payments can still be made via the homegrown alternative, the System for Transfer of Financial Message (SPFS), which covers 20 percent of Russian trade. Russia is also still able to use the made-in-China Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). According to David Oualaalou from Global Perspective Counseling LLC, several companies that have imposed sanctions on Russia, such as HSBC and Standard Chartered, are also incorporated into the CIPS system, meaning Russia can still make transactions with certain Western companies, while these companies can still claim to be complying with the sanctions regime. Moreover, Moscow’s main export, energy, continues to flow, with customers such as India and China agreeing to increase trade activity. Indeed, despite the sanctions, Russian oil exports rose by 620,000 barrels per day in April 2022, reaching 8.1 million barrels per day, according to statistics from the International Energy Agency.
Based on the current situation on the ground in the Ukraine war, Putin is unlikely to back down. On the surface, Russian soldiers seem to be stuck in a quagmire, and sanctions have shaken the Russian people. Still, Russia is nowhere near exhausted in this battle, and as the war continues to grind on, the victims who will continue to suffer the most are the innocent people of Ukraine.
Col.Gen. Sergei Rudskoy
photo: Kremlin
Aswin Lin is a PhD student in the International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies at National Chengchi University in Taipei. He can be reached at: aswinagustinus7@gmail.com
