Whither the U.S. Economy? by Robert Moran on National Review Online
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September 29, 2008 3:20 PM
Whither the U.S. Economy? Washington insiders share their opinions on what happens after the bailout. By Robert Moran
W
ith the House of Representatives’s rejection of the mortgage-industry bailout package today, Americans should be asking: What comes next? Unfortunately, StrategyOne’s survey of Washington opinion elites finds little optimism. (Click for PDF versions of our Beltway Barometer overview, as well as its interview schedule and crosstabs.) First, both Republican and Democratic elites in Washington viewed this as the beginning of a costly cleanup and not the final act: 86 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Republicans in this survey said “more will be needed later” as opposed to the 14 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans that think an autumn bailout “will be enough to solve the problem.” This view is only being reinforced in Washington by op-eds like Lawrence Summers’s in the Washington Post, entitled “A Bailout is Just a Start.” ↓ Keep reading this article ↓
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Unfortunately for supporters of the free market, Washington opinion leaders also overwhelmingly agreed (85 percent of Democrats and 80 percent of Republicans) that the next Congress is likely to “spend significant energy on financial services regulation.” But, where is the economy headed? Interestingly, beltway Republicans and Democrats have very different opinions about America’s economic performance over the next two years. In our survey beltway Republican (66-percent growth — 27-percent recession) were much more optimistic than Democrats (35-percent growth — 59-percent recession). As the table below shows, beltway Democrats are extremely pessimistic about the economy over the next two years, with 20 percent expecting a deep recession. Prospectus Strong growth
Republican 3 percent
Democrat 1 percent
9/29/2008 3:59 PM
Whither the U.S. Economy? by Robert Moran on National Review Online
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http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NWUzNDIxNzc3NWM3NTZjYW...
Moderate growth 29 percent 9 percent Low growth 34 percent 25 percent No growth 7 percent 6 percent A mild recession 17 percent 34 percent A deep recession 7 percent 20 percent A depression 3 percent 4 percent With news of Wachovia’s decline, Fortis’s rescue, and the nationalization of Bradford & Bingley in the U.K., this pessimism is almost certain to have intensified. Does this signal the end of American economic dominance? A majority of beltway elites in both parties (85 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats) disagree with the notion that “this financial crisis marks the end of American international dominance.” But again, Democratic pessimism is clear here as well, with 39 percent of elite beltway Democrats agreeing with that notion. If Washington opinion elites are right, this bailout vote may be the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. — Robert Moran is executive vice president at public opinion research firm StrategyOne. The Beltway Barometer is a quarterly survey of elite Washington opinion conducted among a heavily screened panel of Washington area households.
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9/29/2008 3:59 PM