ЭКОНОМИКА ПРАЗДНОСТИ
ПОСЛЕ РАБОТЫ: РАЗГУЛ НЕУДАЧНИКОВ И СКРОМНОСТЬ ПОБЕДИТЕЛЕЙ В ГОРОДЕ СВОБОДНОГО ВРЕМЕНИ
ИНСТИТУТ STRELKA
2015
GROWTH OF LEISURE ECONOMY
INSTITUTE
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
ЭКОНОМИКА ПРАЗДНОСТИ Цифровой век принес с собой множество любопытных спекуляций о том, как мы будем работать и отдыхать в будущем. Искусственный интеллект и бытовые роботы скоро избавят нас от необходимости работать полный рабочий день, однако вместо того, чтобы выбрать себе занятие по душе, мы начинаем опасаться раскола в обществе на состоятельных и благополучных и отчаянно нищих. Новые принципы производства делят общество на новые классы — не только по типу занятости и экономической продуктивности, но и по излюбленным видам досуга. Уже сегодня мы с удивлением видим, что некоторые прогнозы о будущем работы оказались ложными. Хотя интернет и гибкий график дают нам возможность работать где угодно и когда угодно, мы регулярно приходим на работу в офис. Несмотря на внимание к экологическим проблемам и стремление к здоровому образу жизни, мы предпочитаем жить в перенаселенных мегаполисах. Мы пристегиваемся в машине, но постоянно проверяем почту за рулем. У многих из нас нет телевизора, однако наши дети все больше «зависают» в iPad и iPhone. Мы работаем в отпусках, но тратим большие деньги на модные программы «информационного детокса». В данном проекте мы попытались обозначить и проанализировать новое соотношение между работой, досугом, структурой общества, развлечениями и самосовершенствованием, которое складывается под влиянием технологических новинок. Если и в самом деле в скором времени нам не придется работать, чем мы будем заполнять наши дни? Оставив простую и скучную работу роботам, станем ли мы более высококвалифицированными специалистами или наша новая работа будет заключаться в обслуживании все более совершенных автоматов? Как мы будем проводить наше свободное время? Какие новые виды досуга появятся в будущем? Будем ли мы счастливее в праздности? Как увеличение свободного времени повлияет на структуру общества? Проект рассматривает позитивные и негативные последствия роста экономики праздности. Чтобы подчеркнуть неоднозначность ожидающих нас перемен, в качестве местоположения нашего проекта мы выбрали полуостров Крым, где исторически соседствовали совершенно различные виды досуга и где легко представить появление новых типов свободного времяпрепровождения. — Даша Парамонова, куратор проекта
1
GROWTH OF LEISURE ECONOMY Our digital era has brought with it many predictions of how we will work and how we will relax in the future. The rise of information technology connects us no matter where we go, making it possible to work from anywhere, but just as effectively making it impossible to escape from work. The inexorable advance of computerized intelligence and roboticization offers humanity the chance to live without labor, but rather than equally inhabiting a permanent vacation, society becomes polarized between the wealthy and the desperate. This polarization is not only economic: the new ways and means of economic activity are separating us into new, different classes of workers, and as a consequence, into different classes of leisure consumers. Some predictions about the future of work are already disproven. Rather than working at home, many people increasingly value the time, space, and company of the office. In spite of ubiquitous internet connectivity and our obsessions with ecology, more and more of us choose to pack into densely inhabited cities. We fasten our seatbelts in cars, but check emails while driving. We despise the TV, but our kids are “switching of” with the help of iPads. We do business on vacation, and meanwhile “digital detox” is trending in social networks. There is no question that our lives are changing in many ways, due to new technology. This project investigates the new relations emerging between work, leisure, social class, entertainment, and self-improvement. If we are truly approaching a time when we don’t need to work to survive, what will we do? Will we be improved by leaving boring work to robots, or will we end up simply serving robots? How will we spend our free time? What kind of new leisure will we have in the future? Will we be satisfied in life? How will the increase of free time affect existing social structures? This project searches the future of leisure for both the positive and the negative consequences we face. As an acknowledgement of the ambiguity of this vacation future, the site chosen for the final vision is Crimea, a historic site of relaxation which is now the center of a new generation of politicized leisure activities. — Dasha Paramonova, tutor
2
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
3
Lots of free time, an attribute of the elite, or ‘leisure class’, becomes a privilege of the masses. The winners work more, while losers have leisure. Professional success encourages self-improvement, while career failure allows a life of entertainment. In the future people will be divided into hedonists and ascetics depending on their ability to manage their free time. 4
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The Future Settlement The Island of Crimea is an exciting destination for DIY-travel. Its spontaneous camps are the cheapest vacation options for those who want to disengage for a while from desperate hope of wealth and irresistible fear of unemployment. At the same time, its bohemian communes and anarchist squats promise the most unpredictable experience to those who want to explore a real life.
An atmosphere of DIY-leisure in Crimea. ‘The Garden of Earthly Delights’ by Hieronymus Bosch, detail, 1515
5
THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
Crimea-2060 offers a variety of earthly delights to tourists, locals and dissidents: here you can take a new name, try a new role, join the everlasting masked celebration of Neptune’s Day, enjoy young wine, gamble, sunbathe nude, drink the night away or have a holiday romance. Crimea Island is the embodiment of the fairy tales that nanny whispered in Oblomov’s ear: life here is carefree and idle, you can have everything by doing nothing. Camping castles erect themselves in a minute. Intercity minibuses are replaced with magic carpets that fly above the ruined road network. Underground robotic bakeries produce delicious pies and baklava. The Massandra river runs in a copper pipeline along the shore delivering Crimea Island is the embodiment of amber madeira, garnet port the fairy tales that nanny whispered wine and creamy cahors, — a in Oblomov’s ear: life here is carefree delightful nectar, that simpliand idle, you can have everything by fies life and transfigures realdoing nothing ity. Honeyfalls fill the air with the aroma of lavender, clary sage, and juniper. Firebirds and golden-horned deer are walking around abandoned resorts and amusement parks overgrown with wormwood, valerian and hawthorn — a natural drugstore with antidepressants.
‘Poor but our own’/«Плохонький, но свой»: Russian vacationers adapt to every circumstances to enjoy their short escape, forget all about their troubles, and come again in the next season, hoping for the best. ‘The Garden of Earthly Delights’ by Hieronymus Bosch, detail, 1515
6
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Neglected hotels, patriotic camps, cruise ships and a gambling zone are turned into tech-free reservations, sustainable floating colonies, camps producing renewable energy, dacha communities for the elderly, communal apartments for DIY-travelers and A mixture of Russian archetypes multistory villages for and new technologies is the Crimean Tatars and essence of Crimea migrants. Neofolk Crimean architecture, represented by adorable DIY-palaces boosted by the recession and isolation of 2020s, combines elements of medieval Kievan castles, Gothic-Byzantine churches, oriental temples and desert oases. Ancient cave cities were transformed into labs of leisure immunity, information diet, sleep therapy and time stretching; cell towers — into single-seat observation sites. An unfinished nuclear power plant, neglected in 1989, became the Crimean Cathedral devoted to Alexander Nevsky. Today it offers express worship services, including urgent marriage and absolution grants for outgoing travelers. A mixture of Russian archetypes and new technologies is the essence of Crimea. Obsolete resorts, hurriedly
The cost intensive nuclear power plant project will be transformed into new cathedral, according to the trend of revitalization of abandoned buildings. Shelkino, resort city in Leninsky district
7
THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
Single-place cells for information diet and tech-free sessions in hard to access abandoned medieval cave cities. South-western Crimea
built between 2015-2024, were never repaired, hoteliers prefering to apply augmented reality filters to hide decaying facades and brighten up the outdated interiors. Robotic consumer services opened for 15 million beach potatoes in 2024, right before the end of the tourism boom, were never deactivated — they still clean the shore, prepare mud baths, and produce goods and food. There is wine production, bee-farming and orchid and tulip plantations, and exotic gardens, — cultivating passionfruits, mangoes, papayas, avocados and pineapples, fully processed by robots — belong to Muscovites and can be seen behind the barbed wire.
In 2015 Soviet sanatoriums were handed over to state corporations and hurriedly restored before the high season. ‘Druzhba’ sanatorium in Yalta, built in 1960
8
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The polarization of leisure habits will affect the infrastructure of Crimea: in 2060 it could attract both types of leisure consumers — hedonists and ascetics
9
THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
Young intelligent FITs1 of 2060s, obsessed with partisan travel2, choose Crimea to explore ‘holders of native physiognomy’3. Their adventure studies start in the time-killing zone near Kerch Bridge: the infrastructure of expectation for those who are stuck in traffic is full of semi-abandoned shower-pods, hourly pay sleep-boxes and sex-booths, amusement rides with augmented reality, open air spots for fast holographic cinema and vocaloid4 performances, vending machines with church candles, pilgrim guidebooks and condoms.
1
ree Independent F travelers
2
emains the student R movement of 1870s. In Russian: «хождение в народ»
3
I n Russian: «хранители народной физиономии». The expression that philosopher Konstantin Leontiev used to describe the peasants, ‘the essence of Russian land’
In Crimea Russian soul at the
Here the road stops and endless party goes beyond all limits, brave travelers ‘go there, do uniting different classes and bridging not know where’ 5, but the the gap between the successful and result is always the same — the unlucky newcomers join the celebration of Neptune’s Day and in A humanoid charthe mess of raving initiation lose each other — being enacter voiced by a singing synthesizer couraged to dress up as mermaids, sea devils and water application and spirits or to simply cover themselves with life-enhancing performing onstage as an animated mud from head to foot. projection 4
In Crimea the Russian tendency for ostentatious behavior is fully manifest; here each soul at the endless party goes beyond all limits, uniting different classes and bridging the gap between the successful and the unlucky.
In Russian folk tales: «иди туда, не знаю куда»
5
10
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Russian Trajectories Crimea at any period of its future history will be the most honest reflection of the Russian leisure economy. Today it is minor and distorted. Eventually, every attempt to alter this condition will adjust to Russian cultural constants — mistrust of the intelligentsia, a suspicious attitude to change, strong presence of the state in all spheres of life and the devaluation of personal freedom.
Growth of leisure economy with the prevalence of the entertainment industry. ‘Dance of the Wodehouses’ from Jean Froissart’s ‘Chronicles’, Vol. IV
11
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
In the context of the global shift towards an innovation-based economy the quality6 of leisure7 becomes a crucial factor of common prosperity: in the near future self-improvement after work will be strategically important for professional success.
The capability of leisure products to contribute to your personal development, provide deep refreshment and rise your life satisfaction
6
The Russian leisure indusIn the near future self-improvement try is moving in the oppoafter work will be strategically site direction due to some important for professional success specific tendencies: falling demand for higher educaIn this project we tion, growth of governmental presence in the economy define leisure as time for yourand reduction of private enterprise. These prevent the self, for things that progress of innovations and distort the leisure system. you want to do 7
Today it is overbalanced by compensation leisure that will grow significantly in the next 10 years – within an official framework of patriotic education, the cultivation of religiosity and isolation from developed countries. 8
We may expect a new cultural ‘thaw’ after the next recession, predicted for 20249, and the decline of ideological pressure. Hopefully the desired shift towards an innovation-based economy will force the development of a competitive environment, stimulate popularity of responsible leisure behavior and the following growth of investment10 leisure industry. But essential progress in this sphere is impossible without: əə
eep reforms in education, transforming its forD mat from informative to challenging
əə
Effective collaboration with developed countries
əə
ignificant reduction of governmental presence S in the economy.
apart from your job
Includes leisure products that people choose to reward themselves for hard, boring or meaningless work, or for the time that they have spent looking for a job
8
‘The last year of economic growth’ by Vyacheslav Inozemtsev, 2013
9
Includes types of leisure that encourage your inspirational enrichment, contribute to your professional development and provide a qualitative self-refreshment
10
12
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Factors holding back innovation in Russia Falling demand for higher education Number of students per 10,000 1519 years old
–23% 512 493 393
“Reducing bureaucracy is leading to even more civil servants.” Elizaveta Surnacheva, Kommersant Vlast, #14, 2015
2006
2010
2013 Time
Source: Rosstat
Russia Developed countries
Collapse of the competitive environment and degradation of human capital are specific factors that distinguish Russia from developed countries and shape the leisure economy in a negative way
13
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
‘If the state comes to control 50% of total assets, we will lose; if it holds 1015%, then there will be more positive effects. For an innovative economy the openness and competitive environment are fundamentally important.’ Yevgeny Yasin, an academic supervisor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics
Growth of governmental presence in economy Share of the public sector in the country’s GDP
+32%
Reduction of private enterprise Number of self-employed entrepreneurs (millions)
–34%
70% 50%
40% 38%
8,3
2006
2008
2012
2014
2008 Time
Source: Gaidar Institute, BNP Paribas, International Monetary Fund, expert evidence: Yevgeny Yasin (Vzglyad, 2010), Igor Shuvalov (Vesti Finance, 2014)
5,4
2013 Time
Source: Rosstat
14
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Russia’s distorted and stagnant leisure industry Fundamental reform of education at all levels Effective collaboration with developed countries Significant reduction of governmental presence in the economy Russian potentials Future prospects of Investment Leisure in next 10 years: shrinking infrastructure, growth of isolationism, closed membership, DIY -projects
2024
Moderators of Investment Leisure are going undeground and applying guerilla formats
The necessary prerequisites for the progress of Investment Leisure:
Investment Leisure
The condition of the Russian leisure industry: the serious progress of Investment Leisure is impossible without fundamental changes in education, the economy and foreign policy
15
Now
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
“Today we have no tools for public enlightenment, they were taken from us.� Varvara Gornostaeva, Chief Editor of the Corpus publishing house. The Conjurer by Hieronymus Bosch, 1502
New trends will be adopted by the mass market in the form of conspicuous consumption (e. g. collecting contemporary art, visiting the Antarctic, visiting favelas or undersea hotels)
Present situation Potentials
Wealthy
Poor
Future prospects of Compensation Leisure: growth and diversification, appearance of new addictive products for different audiences, stratified by disposable income. Influence of official policies of patriotic education and religiosity
2024
Simplification of content, personalization of products and growth of ideological determination
Compensation Leisure
Now
16
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The development of compensation and investment leisure in Russia
Number/intensity/ progress
2015
2020
2025
2030
Wave rhythms of the leisure industry: progress of the Investment Leisure is related directly to the political situation
17
2035
2040
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
Singletons Governmental presence in the economy (+ ideological pressure and isolation form the West) Automation of labor Demand for higher education Compensation Leisure Fertility rate Investment Leisure
2050
2055
2060
Time
18
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The Russian Condition The growth of leisure economy in Russia is a part of a global trend. But why is entertainment especially prevalent? Low bottom-up social mobility does not motivate Russians to improve their skills and knowledge. A small percentage of highlyskilled professionals, unappreciated by the economy, is insufficient incentive for the development of smart leisure.
61% of Russians prefer to spend their free time with family and friends (Levada Center, 2014)
19
THE RUSSIAN CONDITION
Free time in Russia is growing due to inauspicious demographic dynamics (an increasing number of singletons and a decreasing fertility rate11) and the number of those who do not spend time on relationships and childrearing is rising.
11
The average births per woman
Demand for leisure products is growing in both directions. The economy of compensation leisure — such as video games and outbound all-inclusive tourism — is rising due to a high potential for market saturation; A competitive environment, supporting leisure as investment (for innovations, is collapsing due to growing example the e-learning market and nonfiction pub- governmental presence in economy and the reduction of private enterprise lishing) is also growing, because up-market workers, employed in creative occupations, have to meet the new demands of the economy. 6% of the popuBut the market of investment leisure will reach its satulation 12 ration limit very soon and start to shrink; compensation leisure will continue to grow, serving several groups of audience diversified by paying capacity. 12
In the next 10 years the domestic infrastructure of smart leisure will go partly underground, and be represented by short term DIY-projects based on membership. The demand for new leisure products supporting self-improvement will mostly be satisfied abroad or by imported inventions. The specific Russian condition is represented by some negative factors that shape the leisure economy: əə
he percentage of the workforce which is highly T skilled is shrinking due to decreasing demand for higher education since 2010 (less than 4% of people aged 15–19 years have entered universities in 2013)
əə
igh-qualified professionals are not properly H appreciated by the economy and have almost no influence on the leisure industry (only 6% of
20
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Russians have advanced qualifications and cultural potential, that in many cases does not match their income) əə
hannels for upward social mobility are deactiC vated: the social structure — formed in 15 last years — is highly crystallized; attractive workplaces are occupied and the demand for a highskilled workforce is not growing
əə
carcity of key resources (finance, power, netS work, education, cultural wealth) is high and their distribution among the population is counterproductive
əə
competitive environment, supporting innovaA tions, is collapsing due to growing governmental presence in economy and the reduction of private enterprise.
A change in social status that allows individuals to raise their welfare and prestige
13
In this context the vast majority of the population prefer compensation leisure; boosting the supply of time-killing products, such as mobile games, soap operas and online gambling.
Counterproductive character of social structure Source: Rosstat report ‘Distribution of the population by average income’ + Boston Consulting Group in their annual report ‘Global Wealth’
Russia 2013 Russia 2024 (our forecast) USA 2014
Upper class 0,001% / 1%
Upper middle class No data / 13%
Middle class 17% / 44%
Lower middle class 11% / 28% Lower class 72% / 12%
Russia’s social structure is displaced to the bottom. The existing proportions of classes are blocking upward social mobility and reinforcing segregation
21
THE RUSSIAN CONDITION
Counterproductive distribution of key resources among the population 2024
2024
The powerful minority (up to 15% of the population) holds the majority of scarce resources (finance + power + network)
Moderation
The majority of population (70–80%) have no resources that can be used a tools for rising welfare
Degradation of human capital
Growth of resource scarcity (finance, power, network, qualification, cultural wealth)
Only 6-7% of population is highly qualified and and culturally advanced. But cultural professionals are not properly appreciated by the economy and has almost no influence on the leisure industry
Source: ‘Social structure of Russia’ by Natalia Tikhonova, 2014
Current distribution of resources does not allow the majority of population change their social status
22
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Growth of free time and leisure economy in Russia Number of single women
Fertility rate The average number of children per woman
The number of single women, million
+18%
–32%
2,36 14,02
1,59
11,8
2002
2010
2012
1980
Time Source: Rosstat: All-Russia population censuses 2002 and 2010
Time Source: World Bank
Russia Developed countries
The amount of free time in Russia is growing due to negative demographic dynamics. The leisure economy is also growing due to low market penetration
23
THE RUSSIAN CONDITION
Work week
E-learning market
Average week hours actually worked per worker
The number of people using e-learning, million
+4%
+70%
38,5
36,9
7,9 (5,5% of population)
4,6 1992
2013
2013 Time
Source: oecd.org
Video game industry
2014 Time
Source: J’son & Partners Consulting
Outbound tourism
Market revenue, $ million
International tourism expenditure, $ billion
+820%
+25% 2490 1830 1349
910
42,8
53,5 (5th place in the list of world’s top international tourism spenders)
223 2009
2010
2012 2013 2016
2012
2013
Time Source: Global Games Market Report 2014 + J’son & Partners Consulting + Mail.Ru Group Report 2012
Time Source: UNWTO (World Tourism Organisation) Report ‘Tourism Highlights’, 2014
24
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The leisure preferences of Russians ‘The existing situation on the labor market does not insentivize Russians to raise their human capital. The consumption patterns currently dominant are leading to the stagnation of the workforce. This is a reaction to the falling level of social mobility.’ Natalia Tikhonova, deputy head of the RAS Institute of Sociology (‘Social Structure of Russia’, 2014)
How Russians spend their free time?
Volunteering
Source: surveys by Levada Center, 2014
2%
Visiting cultural institutions
Playing video games
Gardening
(theatres, museums, concert halls)
9%
18%
26%
In Russia there is a high level of leisure inequality: Compensation Leisure is far more popular than Investment Leisure
25
THE RUSSIAN CONDITION
6% of the population practice self-education on a regular basis. That corresponds with the percentage of highly qualified professionals. ‘The Garden of Eden’ by Upper Rhenish Master, 1410-1420. Detail
Self-education
6%
Outbound tourism (travel once a year for recreation)
7%
Recreation in the countryside
Sport/working out
8%
Reading
Watching TV
(fishing, gathering mushrooms and berries)
33%
36%
79%
26
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Global Development How are Russian trajectories different from the global vector? And what problems can we prevent by analyzing the global condition? The amount of free time in developed countries is growing and boosting the leisure economy. Both types of leisure products — compensation and investment — are in demand. A specific reason for this is the increasing polarization of the workforce by professional status and income.
In developed countries the labor market is polarizing. Experts predict that 90% of the population may find little to do in the new economy. ‘The Last Judgment’ by Hieronymus Bosch, detail, 1504
27
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Today people in the US, Europe and Japan work less, as had been predicted. New technologies speed up the working process: the working week in Europe approaches 21 hours. In Germany and the Netherlands 5-hour workday has become standard. Women give birth to fewer children; 1 child per family is a norm of the near future. People tend to stay single a longer time, unencumbered The leisure industry is becoming bipolar to meet the demand of a by family. The number of singletons in Western coun- polarized society, segregated by the tries will exceed 60% by the rate of intelligence and working skills mid-2030s.
Design guidelines for singletons. Widespread solitude among up-market workers will open a new field for designers and architects: ‘Do not disturb!’ is the motto and passion of wealthy clients
Due to automation, the labor market is splitting into high- and low-skill occupations, as software and robots replace middle-class jobs. The demand for surgeons, architects, and financial analysts in the US has increased by 9% over the past decade, and the number of workplaces for gardeners, bartenders and home health aides has grown by 16%. The occupations that traditionally ensured a middle income, such as accountants, auditors and bank tellers, continue to disappear.
28
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The future of working hell is the new type of bullshit job14 that cannot be automated. Meet click managers, downloading applications to provide a high rating for your software in the App Store
In the context of the shrinking middle class, the mechanism of upward social mobility is not functioning. The impossibility of ‘leveling up’ in social status, despite education and professional skills, discourages people from self-improvement. Lowered professional diffusion fixes social segregation.
Collective session of ‘talking therapy’: the frustration of low-market workers and the jobless masses will be a new niche market for psychotherapists
29
Meaningless occupation, contributing nothing to the world
14
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
The leisure industry is becoming bipolar to meet the demand of a polarized society, segregated by the rate of intelligence and working skills. In the future two dissimilar layers of leisure infrastructure will serve low-market15 and up-market16 workers. High-qualified professionals rethink leisure and set up new trends. The industry of big entertainment17 imitates these innovations to give people an illusion of consuming qualitative content — more sober, immersive, experiential, personalized, sustainable and collaborative. At the same time, providers of compensation are simplifying leisure products to seduce low-market workers into consuming more. Big entertainment becomes mobile, interactive and community-based.
Those, who serve people, maintain robots or perform routines that cannot be automated in terms of cost-effectiveness
15
hose, who think T and do: experts and initiators of big changes, that produce essential knowledge, generate ideas and create methodology for its implementation
16
Mainstream leisure products that may have a different rate of quality — from addictive time-killers to a high profile movies
17
18
ives an illusion G of consuming meaningful content (e. g. bushleague theatre performance or pulp fiction) Deliberate disconnection, absolute relaxation and purposeless observation
19
20
ctivities that A change your personality (for example, prevent superiority complex, develop humanity or intuition, stimulate curiosity)
21
he ability to T resist addictive and meaningless leisure
Old aircraft-carriers transformed into mobile theme parks and pleasure palaces. The opportunity to be entertained 24 hours a day
To compensate for the job dissatisfaction of low-market workers, ersatz-leisure18 is being promoted as something premium, drawing lower class closer to the elite. Up-market workers require a carefully balanced system of recreation, including pure leisure19 and transformational experiences20. Meanwhile, compensation leisure will become even more addictive as a result of new technologies, and the cultivation of active leisure immunity21 could be a leading direction for future cognitive therapy.
30
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Growth of free time and leisure economy in developed countries Number of singletons Number of people living alone globally, million
+80%
Fertility rate Average number of children per woman
–45%
277
2,65
153
1996
1,75
2011
1962
2012
Time Source: Euromonitor International, market research firm
Time Source: World Bank (selection includes US, UK, Sweden, France, Germany, Japan)
Growth of free time is boosting the development of both branches of the leisure industry – compensation and investment
31
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Work week
E-learning market
Average hours per week actually worked per worker
Market revenue, $ billion
–10%
+45%
51,5 32,2 28,8
1980
35,6
2013
2011 Time
Source: oecd.org (selection includes US, UK, Netherlands, France, Germany)
Video game industry Market revenue, $ billion
Source: ‘E-Learning Market Trends & Forecast 2014 - 2016’, Report by Docebo, 2014
Time
Outbound tourism
International tourism expenditure, $ billion
+70% 111
65
2011
2016
+70% 1159
681 2015
2005
2013
Time Source: Entertainment Software Association, 2014
Time Source: UNWTO (World Tourism Organisation) Report ‘Tourism Highlights’, 2014
32
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
A link between habitual leisure and income level ‘Successful people engage in the process of self-improvement every day. They read industry periodicals and technical material specific to their profession or trade. They become students of their profession and keep current with changes that occur. They do not spend excessive mounts of non-work time watching television, or surfing the Internet.’ ‘Rich Habits: The Daily Success Habits of Wealthy Individuals’ by Thomas Corley, 2009
Wealthy Poor
Watching TV (1 hour or less every day)
25%
62%
Watching reality TV-shows
Networking (5 hours + each month)
5%
75%
79%
16%
Based on research made by Tom Corley, 2009. He observed and documented the daily activities of 233 wealthy people and 128 people living in poverty. He defined “wealthy” as earning at least $160,000 annually and holding at least $3.2 million in assets. “Poor” was income under $30,000 a year and less than $5,000 in assets)
Polarization of the labor market will reinforce the gap in leisure habits between the wealthy and the poor
33
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
‘Successful people devote time each and every day to self-improvement.’ Thomas Corley. ‘Marcia Painting Self-Portrait using Mirror’, an illustration from Giovanni Boccaccio’s De Mulieribus Claris, 1404
Volunteering Make their children volunteer 10+ hours per month
70%
3%
Encourage their children read
Listen audio books during commute
63%
5%
Reading (30+ minutes each day)
(2+ nonfiction books per month)
63%
3%
88%
2%
Exercise aerobically (4 days a week)
76%
23%
Believe in lifelong self-improvement
86%
5%
34
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Workforce polarization Growing demand for high- and low-skilled workers and automation of middle-income occupations in the USA 2001 – 2011 1991 – 2001 1981 – 1991
Percentage change in employment by occupation group 16,1%
10,6% 8,6%
9,2%
4,6% 2,6% Routine Cognitive
Routine Manual
Non-Routine Cognitive
0,9% Non-Routine Manual
–5,5% –7,6% –10,1% –12,3%
–11,9% Types of labor
Source: ‘The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries’ by Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu, 2012
The disappearance of middle-income jobs, alongside the growing demand for high– and low-skilled workers, is polarizing the labor market
35
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
‘In the UK, as in most European countries, the share of mid-skilled jobs such as secretaries and machine operators has been squeezed by technology and globalization, while the share of low-skilled jobs — for example, shop assistants — and high-skilled jobs, such as managers, has expanded.’ Sarah O’Connor, Financial Times, 2015
Types of work
The demand for highly qualified workers such as surgeons is growing. ‘The Extraction of the Stone of Madness’ by Hieronymus Bosch, 1949
əə
non-routine cognitive occupations include managerial, professional and technical workers, such as surgeons, financial analysts, computer programmers, and architects;
əə
routine cognitive occupations are those in sales, and office and administrative support; examples include cashiers, bank tellers, mail clerks, accountants and auditors;
əə
routine manual occupations are blue collar jobs, such as machine operators, mechanics, dressmakers, bridge and lock tenders, and meat processing workers;
əə
non-routine manual occupations are service jobs, including janitors, gardeners, bartenders, and home health aides.
36
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Automation of labor Shipments of industrial robots globally, (thousands per year)
+150% 200 163
‘Due to automation, the labor market is polarizing into low- and high-skill occupations with very little employment in the middle.’ ‘The World Economy: the Third Great Wave’, special report by the Economist, 2014
120
70 2000
2005
2011
2014 Time
Source: ‘Worldwide annual shipments of industrial robots’, World Robotics Report, 2014
No workers, no middle management. Image: Robots weld car bodies at Kia Motors
37
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
The shrinking middle class in the USA: polarization of workforce affects social structure
Upper class 2% 1%
Upper middle class 19% 13%
Middle class 53% 44% US 2014 US 2008
Source: Pew Research Center/USA Today Survey ‘Most See Inequality Growing, but Partisans Differ over Solutions’, 2014
Lower middle class 19% 28%
Lower class 6% 12%
‘Innovations will allow highly motivated, talented and conscientious individuals to claw their way into a small elite of very wellpaid workers, but 85–90% of the population may find little to do in the new economy’ Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason University. ‘The World Economy’, report by the Economist, 2014
Lowered upward social mobility reinforces social segregation. Image: Signs of racial segregation
38
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
The bipolar leisure industry of the future Exclusive content and separate infrastructure for up-market workers Time
Increasingly restricted access
Increasingly complex and influential content
Investment Leisure
Wealthy
Trendsetters
The leisure industry of the future will aim to do two contrast things: ease the frustration of low-market workers and surpass expectations of up-market workers
39
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
The new economy will force people to change their leisure habits towards self-improvement. ‘The Concert of Angels’ by Matthias Grünewald, detail from the Isenheim Altarpiece, 1512–1516 Time
Culture of responsible leisure consumption Culture of lifelong education Culture of tech-free zones
Poor
New technology-enabled tools for self-improvement
Conformists
Simplification of content and access
Compensation Leisure
40
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Leisure extremes of the future: austerity vs pleasure Time
Investment Leisure Transformational experiences (existential experiments such as hermitry, sisyphean labor, communal living, starvation)
Cult of delights and individuality
Physical and mental regeneration (information diets, tech-free sessions, sleep therapy, manual labor) Life-exchange experiences, immersive and adventure tourism Volunteering Extreme and edurance sports Arts and crafts Educational video games Serious reading and e-learning Leisure extremes
The ability to maintain a balance between both types of leisure is becoming a strategically important skill
41
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
The ability to maintain a balance between both types of leisure is becoming a strategically important skill
Time
Compensation Leisure All-inclusive space travels TV to go: devices embedded in contact lenses
Safe hallucinogens; drugs for guilt-free gluttony and binge drinking Immersive group games with augmented reality and gambling Body tuning and pet tuning Collecting Addictive video games (time-killing life simulators) Soap operas and reality shows Junk reading
Leisure extremes
Cult of austerity and experimenting
小yberdildonics
42
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Definition of the Trend Summarizing these trajectories we can predict that the polarization of leisure habits will continue to grow. The preference for either entertainment or selfimprovement will influence professional success and welfare. In this context the responsible strategy of leisure consumption will be one of the most valuable skills.
Time Polarization of leisure habits
Today Future
Investment Leisure
The leisure market will polarize
43
Compensation Leisure
DEFINITION OF THE TREND
In Ancient Greece, leisure was seen as an activity used to seek greater understanding of the self - through meditative walks, intellectual conversations and sports. The Industrial Revolution changed the value of leisure to relaxation and entertainment, and switched its format to ‘non-work behavior’ after long Today the perception of leisure as days of hard labor. Since then, a catalyst for more effective work self-improvement is achieved is becoming a new driver for the through work and not leisure.
leisure economy
Today the perception of leisure as a catalyst for more effective work is becoming a new driver for the leisure economy. Self-help culture is changing the guidelines of our lifestyle and becoming more important in a polarizing society. That is why today, choosing between leisure as compensation and leisure as investment, we define our place in tomorrow’s social structure.
Leisure is becoming a necessity: in the future hourly pay urban resorts, surrounded by an electromagnetic firewall that blocks any internet-connected device, will be developed in the city center
The contemporary leisure industry aims to meet a complex web of functions: entertainment and relaxation, social mobility and self-improvement. Each of them is
44
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
very important for the successful reproduction of an advanced workforce — creative, multi-talented and self-directed professionals who will provide innovations and encourage the growth of national economies. As a part of one Today, choosing between leisure system these components directly inas compensation and leisure as fluence each other. investment, we define our place in Nowadays we often tomorrow’s social structure face a significant difference between the desired and actual outcome of recreational products and social mobility mechanisms. This changes our attitude to self-improvement; without energy and motivation it is more difficult to cultivate responsible leisure behavior.
Up-market workers will choose transformational experiences to better understand themselves. We can imagine that their weekends will be harder than working days . ‘Art/Life. One Year Performance 1983-1984’ by Tehching Hsieh and Linda Montano
In addition, the falling quality of free time22 reinforces the polarization of leisure habits. The gap between individuals choosing the most meaningful leisure activities and those choosing the most meaningless is growing.
45
22
he estimation of T distractive factors that describe their intensity, and individuals’ physical and mental condition regarding their ability to focus on information, qualitatively control and filter it
DEFINITION OF THE TREND
In this context, there are three key directions for a state policy and private enterprise in the field of leisure: to raise the quality of compensation leisure, to support a sustainable development of investment products, and to develop new formats of leisure that can help to bridge the gap between the classes.
In the future we will not waste our precious time: ‘Love your planet by loving yourself’ — today a new masturbation gadget allows the energy you produce to charge your phone
46
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Attitude to leisure in the new economy Society
Key means of production
Result
Industrial
Manufacturing machines
Goods Degree of specialization
Key criteria for workforce
Discipline and accuracy Manageability Age and physique Productivity per hour
Key functions of leisure
The new economy will force people to change their leisure strategies
47
Relaxation and entertainment
DEFINITION OF THE TREND
‘The idea that progressive science, technology and ethical government will result in leisure-for-all now looks like a pipedream. Lifestyle formation and effective interaction now requires the mobilization and application of significant emotional intelligence and emotional labour about issues of culture, medicine, environmental matters, recycling, trust, psychological and physical wellbeing, respect issues, personal presentation skills and time management. Non-work activities involve reconnaissance and moni- toring work that enhance personal confidence.’ ‘The labour of leisure: the culture of free time’ by Chris Rojek, 2010
Post-Industrial
Human capital
Innovations Broad knowledge base and educability Problem solving skills Advanced intuition and creative potential Out-of-box thinking and critical approach Initiativity and interpersonal skills
Self-presentation and self-improvement
48
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Leisure today: desired and actual outcomes Type of leisure behavior
Leisure function
Desired outcome
Actual outcome (in most cases)
Self-reward
Entertainment and relaxation
Deep refreshment and life satisfaction
Short-lived ‘escape’ from reality and illusion of refreshment
No energy for
The difference between desired and actual outcomes of leisure products influences our ability of making self-improvements and extends the gap between people with different leisure habits
49
DEFINITION OF THE TREND
‘Cultivated leisure is the aim of man — or making beautiful things, or reading beautiful things, or simply contemplating the world with admiration and delight.’ Oscar Wilde. 1890
Self-presentation
Self-actualization
Social mobility
Self-improvement
Welfare and self-esteem
Skills and knowledge
Disappointment and loss of motivation
Skills and knowledge
self-improvement
No motivation for self-improvement
50
FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
Falling quality of free time hinders selfimprovement ity
tiv
us
nn
ec
cio
time
Early 1880s Vending machines
1946 Cellular communication
Today due to different distractive factors it is more difficult to save energy for self-improvement and focus on it
51
pe Hy
of free
rco
ns co Un
Quality
(m co obile nn ec pho te d n e ga s an dg et s d ot h dis er t ra i n t ct ern p e et op le 24 /
wo
rk
(d i ou ffere ts o nt urc ind ing us wo t r i e s rk to are i the nc ir o reas wn ing c u ly s to me
rs )
Quality of free time (intensity of distracting factors)
1969 internet
DEFINITION OF THE TREND
‘Free time is colonized by organized amusement and consumption. Most people do not have the time to devote themselves to a life of contemplation, reflection and fellowship. When we have free time the last thing that most of us want to do is to observe or contemplate. To truly enjoy leisure we must harness ludic discipline to gain wisdom from scarcity, rather than feast or play as pleasure-accumulating ends in themselves.’
ea :s
kin
g
rk ’
ur bo
re ltu Cu
ali su Ca
of
za
mu
tio
ltit
no
as
f la
(fr cli eelan en ts, ce w pr oje orke c t s rs d ,b o uil mo din re g n ‘wo et w r k o r fo r k) wo
tio
ma or I nf
1970s Part-time and fixed-term labour contracts
(in c o c re a mu mpu sing l t i t te r n u m as s – be kin g ) c o m r of pe i te n p u fo r t s – ou r a e. g. t te s m nt i a r t on ph an on d e es, n c ta b ou r a g l et e
rch
au sc rce
ou ns
na
(gr i n f ow i n or ma g nu tio mb na er lp o oll f in u t i fo r on ma ) tio
lo
ve
rlo
ad
/7
)
se
ing
s
fo r
‘The labour of leisure: the culture of free time’ by Chris Rojek, 2010
1990s Multifunctional electronic devices
Time
52
EXPERTS
PROJECT PARTICIPANTS TUTOR Dasha Paramonova STUDENTS Katya Krylova, Audingas Sumskas, Alexander Zinoviev EXTERNAL EXPERTS Vasily Auzan, Moscow Urban Forum; Anton Belov, Garage Museum of Contemporary Art, Moscow; Jacob Dreyer, architecture theorist and journalist, Beijing; Kathryn Firth, Design London Legacy Development Corporation, Publica, London; Vladimir Gimpelson, the Centre for Labour Market Studies, the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow; Stepan Goncharov, Levada Center, Moscow; Lada Khilyuk, Cheaptrip Travel Agency, Moscow; Damon Lavelle, Populous, London; Mikhail Mayatsky, Faculty of Philosophy at Higher School of Economics, Moscow; Anastasia Mityushina, Education Department, Garage Museum of Contemporary Art, Moscow; Fyodor Pavlov-Andreevich, marka, Arts and Culture Producers, Solyanka State Gallery, Moscow; Dmitry Samoylov, SUP Media; Ekaterina Savchenko, Moscow Biennale of Contemporary Art; Anton Shramkov, Ume책 School of Architecture, Ume책, Sweden; Denis Sokolov, Cushman&Wakefield, Moscow.
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FUTURE OF LEISURE: INVESTING IN THE RICH AND COMPENSATING THE POOR
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project is based on research we carried out at the Strelka Institute in 2015, under the supervision of Dasha Paramonova. We would like to thank everyone who influenced this project by introducing us to experts and helping develop our ideas. They are: Arseny Khitrov, the Higher School of Economics; Dasha Paramonova, Nicholas Moore, Kuba Snopek, Brendan McGetrick, David Erixon, Evgenia Pospelova, Anastassia Smirnova, Strelka Institute for Media, Architecture and Design.
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