Ecunomist, Year 16, Issue 4 by Economie Combinatie Utrecht 1992

Nu bestudeer je de Miljoenennota. Binnenkort schrijf jij eraan mee. Financiën past op de centen. Dit ministerie is de penningmeester van het Rijk en dus verantwoordelijk voor

Financiën zoekt startende economen

bijvoorbeeld de Miljoenennota. Hier worden de financiële

Wij bieden je van meet af aan veel ruimte voor eigen

meevallers verdeeld en oplossingen gezocht voor de

verantwoordelijkheid. Het kan dan ook zomaar gebeuren

financiële tegenvallers. Op dit ministerie werk je altijd

dat je direct na je studie begint met het schrijven aan de

aan uitdagende projecten met grote maatschappelijke

Miljoenennota. Dat moet je willen, dat moet je kunnen.

gevolgen. Ook als starter, want je doet direct mee als

Iets voor jou? Toptalent is van harte welkom. Zeker als

volwaardig teamlid. Dit betekent wel dat wij veel van

je binnenkort als econoom afstudeert. Kijk voor meer

jou verwachten. Bij Financiën tel je meteen mee.

informatie op www.minfin.nl. Je sollicitatie mail je naar recruitment@minfin.nl of je belt 070-342 85 32.

www.werkenbijhetrijk.nl

Content & Colophon From the Editor-in-Chief

From the Chairman

Agenda

Æcu

Neolithic Revolution

St. Petersburg Review

Famous Economist: Yunus

Working at: ICC

Beleggen voor dommies

Collapse of the House of Stone

IAR

Photopage: St. Petersburg

Get rich without economics

The Arms Industry: Moral Issue

Vergrijzingsdebat Review

Sociale dieren?

Turn the Tide: Global Warming

Reflections by a Dakosaurus

Final Say

Once a year The Ecunomist is published in a circulation of 2500, combined with the Company Day brochure. Four times a year The Ecunomist is published in a circulation of 1500 for the members, patrons, Æcunomen and external contacts of ECU'92. Published By: Studievereniging ECU'92 Janskerkhof 12 3512 BL Utrecht Tel.: 030-253 9680 E-mail: info@ecu92.nl Internet: www.ecu92.nl Editor-in-chief: Joëlle Tabak Final Editing: Christian Burgers Roderick Udo Wiebren Tabak Editors: Silvester Bosma Joris Hehenkamp Ian Koetsier Florian Krätke Joël Kroodsma Elena Meshcheryakova Joëlle Tabak Roderick Udo Graphic Design: Joris Hehenkamp Printed By: Hakker van Rooijen Special Thanks To: ECU'92 Board Y.S. Brenner Klaas Damstra Elias Hermans Wiebren Tabak

The Editors f.l.t.r.: Roderick Udo, Elena Meshcheryakova, Ian Koetsier, Silvester Bosma, Joëlle Tabak, Florian Krátke en Joris Hehenkamp. Not on picture: Joël Kroodsma.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

From the editor-in-chief

Between a rock and a hard place Joëlle Tabak - As a perfectionist you find yourself constantly trapped between a rock and a hard place, as the English so aptly put it. The only way to realize you are the sole one bothered by it is to smash into either one of them. For instance, perfectionism may saddle you with a burnout by pushing yourself too hard. But when you try to loosen up, you get a burnout as well because all of the stress it creates to fix the problems caused by you letting your hair down. As editor-in-chief my task is to find the right balance between the two extremes. Every edition again. And that is a tough job. Because where do you draw the line between the learning processes within a committee, your own health and a satisfying result? All seem equally essential to me. Sometimes I wished I was one of those people with a more laidback attitude. The freedom to be irresponsible and less demanding of myself, in the sure belief that a perfectionist will always clean up my mess. But, as being a perfectionist is a task for life, I am doomed. And so I will have always difficulty setting priorities. For a laidback person, health is always number one (except if this goal conflicts with drinking alcohol). This is followed by friends and all sorts of fun activities. Somewhere at the bottom lies a satisfying result. With this I mean the best result you are capable of; not the one you are satisfied with. And while we are on this subject, those persons who are content to spend as little energy as possible usually sleep none the worse for it. No wonder they won’t ever change the error of their ways. As a fourth year student, I have often dealt with these types. It should therefore come as no surprise that the mere mention of the word ‘group work’ is enough to cause me headaches. As an editor-in-chief, my perfectionism still challenges me, albeit on a different level. During all the group projects I participated in as a student, I never paid attention to the learning processes of others. Why should I? The most important thing was to pass the subject; no room for making mistakes or allocating tasks to

other group members which would be more challenging to them. The exact opposite for that matter of what should be happening in a committee. Besides that, experience of several burnouts convinced me of the fact that personal health should in all cases be priority number one. I try to live up to these new guidelines, but that’s far from easy. The first part implies risking mistakes and the second part daring to risk mistakes. As you no doubt noticed, the latest issue of the Ecunomist was less than perfect. As a perfectionist I sincerely regret this. But as it also represented the durable investment in a new graphic design, editor, printer relationship and the prevention of an after-Lustrum burnout I took my chances. Moreover, a far from perfect result only motivates to be improved on with the next editions. To refer to my earlier motto: “To live a creative life we must loose our fear of being wrong” can as easily be replaced by “To live a longer and happier life we must loose our fear of being wrong”. So enjoy this edition and notice the progress being made. That’s what makes a good committee :d!

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

From the chairman

Time flies! Antoine Burgers - Time flies. This is already my 4th ‘from the chairman’ in the Ecunomist. It is May, the weather is improving and the holidays are near. This means that I discuss on life at the board rooms of ECU’92, reflect on some of our past activities and comment on the final activities we will organize in this academic year. When I have to give an overview of the activities going on at the ECU rooms, I can best describe it as a small and structured chaos. With many committees at work, including the conference committee and the lustrum committee, there was never any silence. After the lustrum, there were some moments of relative quietness. The ECU board went to Val Thorens for their won and deserved ten days of holiday. Fortunately, we are still alive and have not broken any of our bones. This does not mean that everything went perfect. My fellow board members referred to a particular slope as the ‘Antoine hill’, because I more often tumbled than actually skied down. But I am not the only board member with nice stories about things that went wrong during the ski trip. Ask Coos, Silvester or Selma about their lovely experiences in France… After our return to Utrecht, we had two weeks of calmness because of the exams and resits. It did not take long for the usual busyness to start again. In the week before the study trip, the conference committee had their deadline for the promotion material, the study trip committee dealt with the final details before departure and the Discussion and Lecture Committee (DLC) was busy organizing the ageing debate. A wonderful time at the ECU rooms. It is always stimulating to see so much passion from our active members and my fellow board members. It is even better to see that our efforts pay off. The DLC organized a fascinating debate, where the position of the youngsters in the ageing

debate was discussed. Stef Blok (VVD), Ferd Crone (PvdA) and Sweder van Wijnbergen (Netspar) gave their opinion in a distinct and clarifying way. It was fantastic that our debate even generated attention from the national media; Radio 1 conducted a live interview with our discussion leader Thijs Knaap. The study trip to St. Petersburg turned out to be a great success. When I heard the stories from the participants, it is a pity that I could not join them on this trip. You can read more about the study trip in this Ecunomist! I would like to end my contribution by pointing out some of our up-coming activities. On Thursday 31 May, the annual ECU’92 conference will take place. This year’s theme is the ‘Future of Europe’s Currency’. During this day, there are interesting lectures, workshops and a debate. Prof. Mr. Dr. F. Bolkestein and Dr. A.H.E.M. Wellink (DNB) will both give a lecture. So, the conference is definitely an event you should not miss out on. On June 7th, Sixpack, the largest student’s party in Utrecht, is going to take place. Finally, I would like to mention an activity that is only open to our active members; the active members day! During this day, we would like to thank our active members for this year’s efforts for ECU’92. What we are going to do is still a secret, but you should not miss it. So, if you are an active member, please make a reservation in your agenda for 18 June!

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Agenda

Agenda and Association news Luuk Leussink, Coordinator Internal Affairs (intern@ecu92.nl). Visit our site (www.ecu92.nl) for more information about the agenda and the activities. 21st of May Rag week Soccer Tournament “Kick some ass at Vredenburg!” www.ragweek.nl 31st of May Conference ‘The future of Europe’s currency’ “Speakers: Frits Bolkestein, Nout Wellink and Lex Hoogduin!” 4th of June B.O.M.B. “Blasting at the Steeg!” 7th of June Sixpack “At Olympos!” 13th of June General Meeting “Presenting: the new Board!!” D a t e

14th of June REBO – party “Summer Edition!”

18th of June Active members day “Presents!”

3rd of September till 8th of September The Introduction “No introduction needed. Become coach at intern@ecu92.nl!”

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Æcu

Dear Æcunomen, Malou van den Berg - With the lustrum already far behind us, it seems that the year is going faster and faster. The end of this academic year is already coming into sight. The Æcu committee looks back on their successful lustrum activities and two newsletters. We have also been working on our new alumni newsletter. With this article you will find some pictures of the cabaret and the dinner with the old board members that took place during the lustrum. As I promised in the last edition of the Ecunomist, you would receive two more issues of the alumni newsletter. One of them is enclosed in the envelope of this Ecunomist. I hope you will enjoy it. You will find a report of the lustrum alumni activities in it as well as an interview with another alumni, some new USE news and more. The final newsletter of this year will come to you in August. That will be my and the committee’s last letter of this year. We are making great efforts to make the last one as good as, and maybe even better than, the previous ones.

which means that all alumni who graduated in economics or the earlier disciplines are welcome.

The next activity for our alumni is the alumni evening on Friday the 25th of May, which will be held in the canteen at Janskerkhof 12 (Utrecht) and start around 8PM. Should the weather allow it, we may even have it in the beautiful garden of the building. Besides some nice snacks and drinks, there will be an interesting lecture by one of the USE staff members on a current theme. The evening combines substance with relaxation. We hope this will become a continuous event from now on. Remember that the other dates for the alumni evenings are: August 31, 2007, November 30, 2007 and February 29, 2008. Same time, same place. We will also have drinks, snacks and different speakers on various subjects each time. Please invite every alumni you know to these evenings, so it will be a successful activity! This activity is held in cooperation with the Utrecht School of Economics,

I would also like to remind you of the opportunity to become an Æcunoom yourself. If you are almost graduated and want to keep receiving the Ecunomist and the Æcu newsletter, you can subscribe. This way, you will stay in touch with ECU’92 and your former studies. If you sign up as an Æcunoom you pay an amount of €10,- a year. If you choose to become an ÆCUnoom of ECU’92, you can send an e-mail to secretaris@ecu92.nl.

As you might have heard, we are still working on the cooperation between our Æcu committee and the alumni foundation of the USE. These evenings are a second step in the direction of one alumni foundation for all economics students. We will still have to see what the future will bring. As always, we will inform you a.s.a.p. about future developments.

Finally, I would like to thank everyone who already subscribed as an ÆCUnoom!! It is nice to know so many people are still involved in our association. Kind Regards, Malou van den Berg h.t. Secretary of the Board

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

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Article

The Neolithic Revolution Homo Economicus as Basic Model for Human Behaviour Joël Kroodsma - When I proposed Homo economicus and the neolithic revolution to my editor she proclaimed 'Neolithic revolution? What's that?!'. 'Silly girl' I thought, since everybody knows that 'neo' (meaning new) 'lithic' (meaning stone) 'revolution' (meaning sudden and dramatic change) refers to the prehistoric transition from a hunter-gatherer to a agricultural society. This transition being the most important development in the (pre)history of mankind. Agriculture created the surplus food to support a division of labour and the necessity for private property(rights), in short the defining aspects of civilization. Or so the popular vision goes. Combined evidence from cultural anthropology and classical economics dispute this view. Today's pre-neolithic (are you still with me?) peoples – such as Kung San in the Kalahari – enjoy a varied diet of meat, nuts, berries and roots and work about twenty hours a week. Primitive agriculture meant tolling for sixty hours a week and having a unvaried diet of poor nutritional value. So what rationally self-centred individual would prefer the leisure of the hunter-gatherer state over the hard life of the agriculturalist? None I would say, this being the reason why tribes like the Kung San act perfectly rational by staying in the 'uncivilized' state that they are in. Why did the transition eventually take place? Imagine this very simple model with very reasonable assumptions: the homo economicus maximises his own utility, a function of Food and Labour. Marginal utilities are respectively positive and negative. Food is produced either by hunting or farming, with Labour being the only input. The first mode of production has increasing returns to scale – by yourself it is virtually impossible to hunt big game (unless if you are the proud owner of a post-neolithic uzi) – agriculture has

constant returns. Now let's assume that homo economicus's utility decreases with the size of the social group: more people means higher transaction costs in distribution of production. A shift from the first to the second mode occurs when the returns on the margin to hunting fall significantly. The man-made extinction of the woolly mammoth qualifies. This explains the advent of the neolithic revolution. But according to the popular view the transition brought with it a division of labour. In our model the social unit would get smaller instead of larger: if hunting is just as productive but requires more people, homo economicus would prefer agriculture with less people. Contrary to popular belief, this might be what happened. Several years ago archaeologists found at Çatalhöyük (Turkey) the remains of 2000 dwellings, aggregated as a modern town but with no sign of public infrastructure or any division of labour . Just self-sustained units with no evidence of civilization what so ever. Homo economicus as basic model for human behaviour: not so far-fetched as you might think.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Review: St. Petersburg

City - museum, city - life! Elena Meshcheryakova -The first, but definitely not the last visit to SaintPetersburg, was one of the most amazing experiences in my life so far. Possessing a great know-how in traveling and engaging in several cultures and traditions, I forgot how great and rich MY culture is. In fact, I have forgotten most of what it consists of; including its lessons in history and the ability to change and adjust while standing ‘Great’. ber of churches – which can be found on many streets of St. Petersburg city-centre and its outskirts. Now I know why religion never died during the 70 years of Communist’s power. A soul that sees the beauty of work done in the name of God will never die.

The moment we drove into the Petersburg’s territory, we noticed that every square inch of it is full of history dating from 300 years till these days. The monuments constructed in the name of war victory, the buildings of the Stalin era, the commercial shops occupying first floors of those of the houses. The streets of St. Petersburg are also a part of history and grandeur of this city – they are wide and endless.

City-life The amount of McDonald’s, Coffeehouses, and Hotels with fancy names on the streets of St. Petersburg makes your eyes run in different directions. Everywhere I saw trade, from cars and fur-coats to Sunny tours and pre-paid mobile cards. I am happy and I am glad for making this trip, because a journey into the city begins with the first visit.

City- museum My fist emotion inside the city is connected to the amalgamation of noble times with communist’s times. The preservation of monuments, palaces and churches by the revolutionists of 1918 and the work of architects thereafter, made Saint-Petersburg one whole ‘planet’. In my opinion, the revolutionist style was nostalgia for the tsar era buildings, though they could never admit it in public. After visiting two of the most beautiful museums and having seen an astonishing collection of art and craft, I can say with certainty that The Hermitage and Russian Museum will always stay in my heart as places of incredible cultural richness. Another point that convinced me of the existence of a never dying Russian culture and tradition is the numIs de witte tekst in de foto wel goed leesbaar?

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Review: St. Petersburg

Study trip St. Petersburg The perfect mix of Russia Silvester Bosma – The last couple of years ECU’92 visited South-Africa, Milan, Istanbul and Budapest. In 2007 the study trip went to a whole new world: St. Petersburg. The ‘Venice of the north’ is the second largest city in Russia and was its capital for years. St. Petersburg was build by Tsar Peter I, also known as Tsar Peter the Great, who was inspired by the Netherlands, Amsterdam and the canals. Russians are very proud of their culture and history and that is something that Tsar Peter the Great wanted to show in St. Petersburg. St. Petersburg has it all: culture, museums, churches, western influences and Russians. For the participants the task to explore this perfect mix of Russia. The Russian culture is one you have to get used to. A noisy western tourist, who takes pictures at every corner in the weirdest positions, is not something that Russians understand. The Russian culture is about being proud of your country and history. That is why every Russian can tell you about the Tsars and the founding of St. Petersburg. But Russian culture is also about the military, of which we saw a good example in a military parade of 500 soldiers in front of the Hermitage. Russian culture is also on the road: where we in Holland have Spyker, Russia has Lada’s: lots of them. Museums In St. Petersburg you can find the museum with the biggest art collection of the world: the Hermitage. The Hermitage is the old winterpalace of the Russian tsars and is art an sich. The Hermitage consists of five buildings with magnificent rooms. Each of these rooms is filled

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Review: St. Petersburg

with all kind of arts from all over the world collected and bought by the Tsars to show it to the world. But there is more: the Russian museum holds a collection of Russian art of the last 200 years. And then I don’t mean the old ladies who are sitting in every room to watch after the paintings (call it a ‘Melkert-baan’). The Palace of Petrodvorets or Peter’s Palace is situated in the suburbs of St. Petersburg and is all about the park: innumerable fountains (which where unfortunately turned off during our visit), beautiful cascades, gold and marble statues of gods and heroes and exuberant decoration from as well the inside as the outside. Churches In St. Petersburg you can find a lot of churches which are worth visiting, two of them in particular. The St. Isaacs Cathedral is a Russian Orthodox Church and can be recognized by a gigantic golden dome. From the outside you can climb it and have a panoramic view of the city which is restricted to a maximum height limit to which all buildings must obey. From the inside the church is characterized by the pictures on the wall, massive granite columns, and unfortunately too much souvenir stands. The church of the savior on blood is the second

Orthodox Church that can’t be missed. The outside is impressive because of the colourful so called ‘onion’ domes. The inside contains over 7500 square metres of mosaic. All the walls and ceilings are completely covered in detailed mosaics, the main pictures being biblical scenes or figures. Western influences After the fall of communism, the Russian economic growth exploded and the western influ-

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Review: St. Petersburg ences did their entrance. A visit to the tea-factory of Unilever learned us about the modern techniques and efficiency that are used in production processes nowadays, whereas a visit to Deloitte showed us that there is more need for financial control because of the enormous economic growth. On the street the western influence is expressed in rich Russians who are dressed to impress with huge sunglasses and fuzzy coats, the numerous fastfood chains (Russian pancakes are a must) and tourist shops. But still that typically Russian atmosphere has remained, and that is what makes visiting St. Petersburg worthwhile: St. Petersburg is all about the perfect mix of Russia.

Top: Maria alter inside Savior on Blood Church Left: Aurora; started russian revolution Bottom: Visiting Unileverâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Teafactory in St. Petersburg

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Famous Ecunomist

Mohammed Yunus: micro-credit Joris Hehenkamp - In 2006 the Bangladeshi economist Mohammed Yunus and the Grameen Bank, which he founded, were awarded the Nobel Peace Price. They received this precious price for the initiation of a new credit system: micro-credit. From the Nobel Peace Price website: “Lasting peace cannot be achieved unless large population groups find ways in which to break out of poverty. Micro-credit is one such means. Development from below also serves to advance democracy and human rights.”

This new system tries to stimulate economic and social development from below by lending small amounts of money (usually less than $300) to people without asking for high interests or collateral, but instead building on mutual trust, accountability, participation and creativity. The concept seems to work. More than half of Grameen borrowers in Bangladesh (close to 50 million) have risen out of acute poverty thanks to their loan. This is measured by such standards as having all children of school age in school, all household members eating three meals a day, a sanitary toilet, a rainproof house, clean drinking water and the ability to repay a 300 taka-a-week ($8) loan. And, since its inception, there has been an astonishing loan repayment rate of over 98 percent.

new institutions and policies. Far too little attention has been paid to the subject of poverty, according to Yunus.

The success of micro-credit shows that even the poorest of the poor can earn money through working and are not dependent upon charity. As Yunus himself put it: "these millions of small people with their millions of small pursuits can add up to create the biggest development wonder." He believes poverty is created by institutions and policies, not by the poor, and thus should be battled by changing and/ or creating

Back to the system of micro-credit. An interesting aspect of this system is that it does not discriminate and thereby offers women – who are in many parts of the world still struggling to earn an equal part in society – the chance to show their capacities and prove they can be of great help to the social and economical development of a country. Over 90 percent of the users of micro-credit are in fact women. Again

The Grameen (meaning: rural area, village) Bank, one of these new institutions, has issued more than US$ 6 billion to 7 million borrowers. To ensure repayment, the bank uses a system of "solidarity groups". These small informal groups apply together for loans and its members act as co-guarantors of repayment and support one another's efforts at economic self-advancement. As it has grown, the Grameen Bank has also developed other systems of alternate credit that serve the poor. In addition to micro-credit, it offers education loans and housing loans as well as financing for fisheries and irrigation projects, venture capital, textiles, and other activities, along with other banking services such as savings. The Bank even started Village Phone: people can lease/ buy a cellular phone at a low price and provide modern age IT services to their village. More than 200 000 ‘Phone Ladies’ (mainly women enter this market) exist today, and their ‘turnover’ exceeds 2 billion dollars.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Famous Ecunomist from the Nobel website: “Economic growth and political democracy can not achieve their full potential unless the female half of humanity participates on an equal footing with the male.” Sprung in Bangladesh, the system of micro-credit quickly conquered the world. Over 50 countries - from the U.S. to Papua New Guinea, Norway to Nepal – have introduced it. Yunus has received over 100 awards, honorary degrees and special honors from countries and organizations all over the world. His Grameen Bank has also been awarded near 20 awards. For an overview, check http://www.grameeninfo.org/bank/Listofawards.html. The enormous increase in the demand for and supply of Fair Trade products, such as Max Havelaar coffee, has been interpreted by some as a global shift in public preferences from donating money to charity towards allowing poor locals in South America, Africa or Asia to earn an income by producing Dutch princess Maxima is and selling. Yunus stimulates this involved in Micro-credit shift. He thinks charity creates dependence and takes away individual’s initiative to break through the wall of poverty. Unleashing of energy and creativity in each human being is, according to Yunus, the answer to poverty. With the system of micro-credit, Yunus has helped the world advance towards the ultimate but fragile equilibrium, that of world peace. This is his long term goal. To end this article with room for discussion among economists, here follows a last cite from Yunus. “The most important step to end poverty is to create employment and income opportunity for the poor. But orthodox economics recognized only

Micro accounting wage-employment. It has no room for selfemployment. But self-employment is the quickest and easiest way to create employment for the poor. I have been arguing that credit should be accepted as a human right, because it is so important for a person who is looking for an income.” Where does the money actually go? Female top 10: 1 Grocery Shop 2 Milch Cow 3 Village Phone 4 Cow Fattening 5 Rice/ Paddy Trading 6 Other Business 7 Cloths Trading 8 Stationery Shop 9 Bamboo Works 10 Paddy Husking Male top 10: 1 Grocery Shop 2 Milch Cow 3 Rice/ Paddy Trading 4 Stationery Shop 5 Land Lease 6 Cloths Trading 7 Vegetables Trading 8 Cow Fattening 9 Paddy Husking 10 Timber Trading

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Working at...

Joëlle Tabak en Roderick Udo - Op een prachtig gelegen locatie in het sfeervolle centrum van Utrecht, wordt de redactie van de Ecunomist verwelkomd door Maarten Spek, trainee analyst bij Interest & Currency Consultants (ICC). Helaas kan Spek ons alleen een glas water aanbieden, aangezien het koffieapparaat het heeft begeven. Kort hierop volgt de kennismaking met Anneke Hoijtink (eveneens trainee analyst) en Sander van Ginkel (managing analyst). Als dan blijkt dat het koffieapparaat toch nieuw leven is ingeblazen, kan er met hernieuwde energie aan het interview worden begonnen. Van Ginkel, Hoijtink en Spek maken allen onderdeel uit van het research team van ICC. Niet wetende dat er een dergelijke afdeling binnen ICC bestaat, wil de redactie hier natuurlijk het fijne van weten. Van Ginkel legt daarom uit hoe het bedrijf is ontstaan: “Onze directeur-eigenaar kwam uit het vermogensbeheer en onderhield daarvoor goede contacten met banken en economen. Hij was dagelijks bezig met het volgen van de financiële markten en wilde zijn ervaring en gedrevenheid aanwenden om anderen te adviseren. In 1979 richtte hij ICC op, dat ondernemingen voornamelijk op het gebied van rente en valuta advies geeft. De ontwikkeling van een visie op de financiële markten vormt nog steeds de kern van ICC.” De research Als onderdeel van het research team dragen Van Ginkel, Hoijtink en Spek bij aan deze ICC visie op de internationale financiële markten. Zij doen dit met behulp van een combinatie van fundamenteel-economische en charttechnische analyse. Het team verricht zelf geen primair economisch onderzoek, maar baseert haar visie op internationale topresearch, zoals de publicaties van centrale banken als de Fed en de ECB, grote commerciële banken als Goldman Sachs en Morgan Stanley, research huizen, brokers en internationale organisaties als de OECD en het IMF. Dit wordt gecombineerd met de nieuws-

voorziening door Reuters, Bloomberg, financiële kranten en tijdschriften. Wekelijks publiceert ICC over de vooruitzichten van de wereldeconomie en wat er op basis daarvan voor de rentestanden en valutakoersen verwacht kan worden. Van Ginkel: “Wereldwijd hebben we hiermee een groot klantenbestand opgebouwd, waaronder veel Fortune 500 bedrijven, commerciële banken, centrale banken en grote internationale vermogensbeheerders.” Deze rapporten worden wekelijks uitgegeven, dus gelden er strakke deadlines. Wat moet er precies voor zo’n deadline gebeuren? Hoijtink: “Ik kom binnen en begin met het verzamelen van gegevens van het internet, van nieuwsdiensten als Bloomberg en Reuters. Daarna spit ik kranten en research door.” Spek: “Omdat de Amerikaanse markten laat Nederlandse tijd sluiten, ben je vooral in de ochtend bezig te analyseren wat zich op die markten heeft afgespeeld.” Van Ginkel: “Daarna is er overleg over de inhoud van de rapporten en wordt bepaald wie welk deel daarvan op zich neemt. Als iemand een stuk heeft uitgewerkt, gaat dit meteen richting de vertaalafdeling, waar het in het Spaans, Engels en Duits wordt vertaald. Naast het publiceren van rapporten gebruikt ook de consultancytak van ICC, die er pas later is bijgekomen, de ICC huisvisie om deze te ver-

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Working at... talen naar een strategie die specifiek op de klant gericht is. Spek: “Met de consultants vindt wekelijks een marktbespreking plaats. Wij vertellen de consultants wat ze moeten weten en soms koppelen zij ervaringen terug naar ons.” Van Ginkel: “Vaak krijgt de consultant de vraag of ons beeld van de ontwikkelingen in de financiële markten nog klopt. De financiële markten zijn iedere dag in beweging en daarom is er sprake van een constante interactie tussen ons en de consultancy-afdeling.”

gesprekken, een analytische test en een schrijftest aangenomen. Van Ginkel benadrukt dat je met elke economische opleiding als analist voor ICC aan de slag kan, omdat ‘hier geen opleiding voor bestaat en je de benodigde analytische vaardigheden ontwikkelt door interne training en ervaring”. De twee trainee analisten bevestigen dit: hun studie heeft hen een goed beeld gegeven van hoe de wereldeconomie in elkaar zit en de theorie is een nuttige basis, maar ze hebben het meeste geleerd door mee te draaien in het research team.

Het belang van een onafhankelijke huisvisie Uit deze terugkoppeling blijkt ook het belang van de huisvisie van het ICC research team bij het ontwikkelen van een klantgerichte strategie. Van Ginkel: “De kern van onze werkwijze is de combinatie ‘visie en techniek’. Met onze marktvisie en derivatenkennis worden onze klanten ondersteund in het formuleren van hun hedging- c.q. beleggingsstrategie”. Daarnaast is de visie van ICC volledig onafhankelijk, waarmee het zich onderscheidt van adviezen van banken die vaak gericht zijn op de producten die ze willen verkopen. Van Ginkel: “Dat is voor onszelf overigens ook erg prettig werken, omdat je dan volledig objectief tot je marktvoorspellingen kunt komen”.

Eigen mening “Het is als je bij ICC komt werken vooral belangrijk dat je interesse hebt in de financiële markten en dat je een eigen mening over zaken durft te vormen”, aldus Van Ginkel. De interviewer knikt begrijpend en wordt er gekscherend op gewezen dat dit dus in een teamoverleg bij ICC niet de bedoeling is. Het bedrijf onderscheidt zich dan ook niet voor niets met een eigen huisvisie op de financiële markten. De drie geïnterviewde analisten hebben het prima naar hun zin bij ICC. De bedrijfssfeer is informeel, het is een club veelal jonge mensen en door de vele buitenlandse werknemers, werk je in een internationale omgeving. Van Ginkel is ook blij met de locatie van het kantoor van ICC, in de Lange Viestraat in het centrum van Utrecht. “Er is niet altijd tijd voor, maar het is heel prettig om te gaan lunchen aan de Oudegracht of even de stad in te lopen”. Ook de borrels op vrijdagmiddag, in een café in het stadscentrum, tonen de goede sfeer bij ICC en de wortels in het centrum van Utrecht.

Utrechtse economiestudent Hoe kom je bij ICC terecht en wat moet je ervoor kunnen? We vroegen het aan de analisten. Managing analyst Van Ginkel studeerde internationale economie in Utrecht, een van de opleidingen die nu zijn opgenomen in de Utrecht School of Economics. Als lid van beleggingsvereniging BvvK ontwikkelde hij tijdens zijn studie al affiniteit met internationale financiële markten. Van Ginkel begon zeven jaar geleden met een studentenbaantje bij ICC en door zijn interesses werd hij al snel binnen het bedrijf betrokken bij meer inhoudelijke werkzaamheden. Ook Spek en Hoijtink volgden beiden een universitaire opleiding Internationale Economie, respectievelijk in Rotterdam en Tilburg. Ze solliciteerden op een vacature bij ICC en werden na enkele

Wil je meer weten over werken bij ICC? Neem dan contact op met Kim van Delft. Voor diegenen met een passende CV en toonbare interesse in financiële markten zijn er mogelijkheden voor (bij)banen bij het rente en valuta consultancy bedrijf in hartje Utrecht. 030 2328200 K.vanDelft@incc.nl www.incc.nl

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Analysis

voor dommies Ian Koetsier – Bakken met geld worden er elke dag gewonnen en verloren met beleggen. Maar wat moet je nou eigenlijk echt weten als student om een vet ‘belegde’ boterham hieraan over te houden? Er zijn legio mogelijkheden om in te beleggen, in dit artikel zal het echter gaan over beleggen in aandelen. Elke dag staat er wel iets in de krant over het verloop van de aandelenbeurzen. De laatste tijd zitten deze weer aardig in de lift. Het zal bij sommige ongetwijfeld de interesse hebben gewekt om het beleggen in aandelen een keer te proberen. De beurs Aandelen worden verhandeld op verschillende beurzen in Nederland, de bekendste zijn de Midkap en de AEX in beide zijn (ongeveer) 25 bedrijven vertegenwoordigd. De samenstelling van de AEX wordt gemaakt op basis van omzet van aandelen. Tevens staan er vijf fondsen op de reservelijst in het geval van fusies of een beursexit. Verschillende fondsen hebben ook een verschillende weging, deze wordt gebaseerd op de beurswaarde van het bedrijf. De meest verhandelde fondsen op de Midkap kunnen ‘promoveren’ naar de AEX en de minst verhandelde AEX fondsen ‘degraderen’ naar de Midkap, in februari wordt er duidelijk welke bedrijven aan AEX genoteerd zijn en blijven en welke aan de Midkap genoteerd zijn en blijven. Een minder bekende beurs is Alternext. Alternext richt zich door minder ingewikkelde en dus minder kostende regelgeving op de kleinere bedrijven die kapitaal willen ophalen op de beurs. Vaak zijn dit nieuwe bedrijven op de beurs, zij hebben vaak een hoog groeipotentieel maar het risicoprofiel is vaak ook hoger doordat over deze kleinere bedrijven minder bekend is.

Soorten aandelen Het zal geen verbazing wekken dat er verschillende soorten aandelen zijn. Er zijn natuurlijk de aandelen die zijn genoteerd op de Midkap, AEX en Alternext, de ‘normale’ aandelen. Er zijn ook incourante aandelen, de meeste aandelen van het betreffende fonds zijn dan in handen van een kleine groep mensen. Ook staan deze aandelen vaak op naam. Verder is er een categorie aandelen niet-officieel genoteerd. Dit zijn aandelen van fondsen die een noteringsmaatregel hebben. Wat de oorzaak hiervan is, loopt uiteen, het kan bijvoorbeeld faillissement zijn maar ook iets totaal anders. Bij een faillissement kan er dan gegokt worden op het overblijven van geld na het afbetalen van de schulden. Een andere categorie is een categorie aandelen die nog niet eens officieel bestaat namelijk de grijze effecten, dit zijn effecten die waarschijnlijk een notering krijgen waarin al gehandeld wordt voordat ze deze hebben. Bij de grijze handel is het zo dat als de notering toch niet plaatsvindt de verkoop als niet gedaan wordt beschouwd. Dan zijn er ook nog certificaten: dit zijn aandelen zonder stemrecht op de aandeelhoudersvergadering. Bij een royeerbaar certificaat kan deze worden omgewisseld voor een aandeel met stemrecht. Bij een niet-royeerbaar certificaat kan dit niet. Het maakt voor het bezoeken van een aandeelhoudersvergadering niet uit of je een certificaat bezit of een aandeel. Echter, als je het leuk vindt om mee te stemmen dan moet je wel het ‘normale’ aandeel hebben. Een aandeel Het meest in het oogspringende gegeven van een aandeel is uiteraard de koers. De koers is de

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Analysis prijs die voor het aandeel wordt betaald maar geeft ook een indicatie wat de beleggers van het aandeel in kwestie vinden. Verder is een belangrijk gegeven het dividend. Het rendement van een aandeel kan worden opgedeeld in twee delen namelijk de koerswinst en het ontvangen dividend. De hoogte van het dividend wordt vastgesteld op de aandeelhoudersvergadering. Let er wel op dat je geen dividend meer ontvangt over een jaar na de ex-dividenddatum. Als een fonds ex-dividend gaat daalt de koers over het algemeen met het bedrag van het aangekondigde dividend. Ook kan er sprake zijn van een gebroken boekjaar waarbij een interimen slotdividend wordt uitgekeerd. Het dividend kan komen in verschillende vormen: stockdividend, cashdividend en keuzedividend. De laatste geeft de keuze tussen de eerste twee. De handel Welke aandelen het goed gaan doen blijft altijd de vraag. De beleggingsadviezenrapporten van de grotere financiële dienstverleners geven een beeld van de huidige en toekomstige prestaties van een aandeel. Er wordt duidelijk welke aandelen ondergewaardeerd zijn en wat het koersdoel van het aandeel is over een bepaalde periode. Ze geven een sell, buy or hold advies, vaak gaat van deze adviezen van gerenommeerde instellingen een zekere self fulfilling prophecy uit. Welke aandelen je bij elkaar neemt hangt af van het risico je wilt lopen. Als je een goede, gevarieerde mix van aandelen neemt heb je alleen te maken met het marktrisico, het marktrisico wordt weergegeven aan de hand van bèta. Dit is een getal dat aangeeft of de beweging van het aandeel groter of kleiner is dan de marktuitslag, boven de 1 is

Top left: Caution: falling interest rates Top right: Sleepless nights worrying about trade Bottom left: Do not give the bear insider tips Bottom right: Investor’s jumping spot deze meer. Dit is een agressief aandeel. Beneden de 1 is dit minder: een defensief aandeel. Met een gespreid portfolio kan je het risico verkleinen. Maar of al die moeite nodig is om een goed portfolio vast te stellen is moeilijk te zeggen. Uit onderzoek is namelijk gebleken dat het rendement van het zogenaamde ‘stockpicking’ vrijwel nul is. Een andere methode voor het vaststellen van een portfolio is misschien leuker en levert ongeveer een gelijk rendement. Het gaat hier om het ‘dartbordportfolio’, iedereen kan dit samenstellen. Neem een dartbord, prik het beurskatern van de krant erop en gooi je pijlen. De fondsen die je raakt koop je. Mocht je beleggingsavontuur dan toch geen schot in de roos zijn, heb je er in ieder geval nog een leuke avond en een dartbord aan overgehouden.

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Analysis

The collapse of the house of stone Klaas Damstra - Imagine a country rich of natural resources. Next to fossil fuels like coal and agricultural products like cotton, the country has immense resources of copper, gold and platinum. There are young people and a not unfavourable climate. Imagine the range of chances such a country might have - and compare it to the total state of hopelessness it is in. Welcome to Zimbabwe, which means in their own language 'the house of stone', after a mysterious castle from a once glorious history. Seeing the state of dismay the country is in, one starts to wonder what has gone wrong. An unsuccessful hunt for materials first brought the British to the country. They came, saw and conquered and renamed the country Rhodesia after their leader Rhodes. Most British expatriates settled on large agricultural firms. Over the years of British rul,e the civilized world brought them not only submission, but also education, infrastructure and the basic structure of politics and law, yet in extremely small proportions. The British Empire was not that interested in the country with only marginal mining discoveries, and left the governing to Rhodes and his company. This was officially established in 1923, when the country became a separate British colony. The ruling white minority felt the need for more independence and in 1965 they declared their independence without speaking to the Queen, as many of their neighbours did before. The first scraps From the moment of independence, the first bricks in the house of stone started to fall. The once stable and quiet country was punished by economic sanctions, and punished itself by starting a civil war between the two major inhabiting tribes. Tactics of war worked at least a little, considering that it effectively pus-

hed the white minority to give some political rights to the black majority. They took the chance, and suddenly former warlord Robert Mugabe was in the driving seat of what was then called Zimbabwe, after an election as trustworthy as in every country stressing words like 'democratic' of 'people's republic' in their country names. New problems like corruption and signs of a dictatorial repressing regime arose quickly. Appraisal of the house A direct occasion of the new resistance in the late 1990s, led by labour unions, was the economic crisis the country was getting into. The economy proved to be the sputtering motor of the country. Next to declining harvests, Zimbabwe had a major problem of declining purchasing power caused by hyperinflation. Add up onethird of the population with HIV and you have your recipe for disaster. To keep the people quiet, the government sought a group to blame for all problems. The search was short and easy: the white farmers took the good harvests, and their lands had to be taken and redistributed among the poor black farmers without land. One simple rule was ignored:

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Analysis

agriculture is not only nature, but it is also technique and how to manage it. Finally, the total harvest was worse every year, and problems worsened too. What does this mean? Examples include an unemployment rate of almost 80%, while 60% is living under minimal standards with inflation reaching a peak of 1200% in 2005. This asked for draconic measures, so 'operation Taguta', ironically meaning 'hunger is stilled' was launched. By 2006 even the soldiers were suffering of hunger, and this shield of power ought to stay on governmental side. Since an angry soldier is more dangerous then an angry farmer, the land was redistributed again, but now to farming soldiers. Since soldiers are trained to fight and not to grow government-determined crops, this was another complete wall of the house of stone tumbling down. The resulting crisis the country is something most people in developed countries are not aware of and could not even imagine. Almost all foreign investors in the country have ran away. Enemy-like conditions, unfavourable laws and an unpredictable and worthless currency makes trading in the country utterly unattractive.

government still tried to clean up the house from the inside. This led to rarely observed economic measures. The worthless Zimbabwe dollar (a simple bread costs 200.000 Z$), was revaluated in August 2006. The army-and-government-controlled Central Bank simply decided to erase three zeros from the banknotes! This was also the moment for attack on the black market, which flourished. Everyone had three weeks to exchange their money in the new currency. Only within the first week, more than 2000 black traders were arrested. As if this specialty in a country well known for corruption was not enough, the economic wizards had an extra unheard of trick. To control the 1200% inflation, the government declared all prizes frozen during the period of the introduction of the new money. A surprising and supporting worthy goal for a country for which no official exchange rates exist due to volatility in prizes. Violation of the ordination causes big fines. Rebuilding the house? Is everybody now running away from the collapsing house, leaving the 12,5 million poor inhabitants alone? Luckily there are always countries that do not complain and show interest in taking away valuable resources. So, maybe one day a new castle will rise from the ashes, funded by Libyan and Chinese money.

Cleaning up the house With all the walls coming down, the Mugabe

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Article

IAR project Explore with knowledge Silvester Bosma - 6 February 2007: A new project is born. The academic research project, or in short IAR project, is a project that gives students the opportunity to do company specific research in an emerging market in a foreign country. In Maastricht, Amsterdam and Rotterdam, it is already a great success. Last year a number of students took the initiative to start the IAR project in Utrecht with the goal to go to China and to do research in an emerging market. Now in association with ECU’92 and supported by the University of Utrecht, the project is brought to the students of Utrecht. The IAR project is “a study project that will conduct company specific research in emerging markets”. In practice this means that as a student you will travel to a foreign country and for approximately 1.5 months, you will conduct field research for a firm with one or two other student(s). This research can be about competition analyses, market exploring, growth possibilities, investments opportunities or other firm specific questions. The firm pays for all expenses and the student is responsible for a research paper. The research will take place in the summer vacation; after your research you can stay longer to explore the cultural and social aspects of the country. For students in their second or third year, this is a perfect opportunity to go abroad, do research, experience another culture, and have a small vacation to end with.

Contact If you have questions about the IAR project, when you want to know more about the IAR project or when you are interested in joining the IAR-board for 2007-2008, you can contact Martine van Gerven, president of the IAR project 2006-2007; m.vangerven@IARproject.nl . Or you can always take a look the website: www.iarproject.nl .

Board The board of the IAR project is responsible for all practical issues that come into mind. One of the most important decisions is to determine the destination of the project of that particular year. Being a board member of the IAR project also implies a part-time job. You are responsible for the acquisition of firms and research, the logistics, promotion of the project, tickets and all finances. For the academic year 2007-2008, the IAR project is still looking for new board members.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Photopage: St. Petersburg

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Article

Ten ways to get rich.. ..without studying economics Roderick Udo – Are you frustrated because you did not pass your exams? Or just wondering whether there are other ways to earn money than by studying? Maybe the Ecunomist can give you some ideas. We present to you ten ways to get rich without studying economics. Of course you can undertake criminal activities, but that is not what our suggestions are about. We take the legal road to wealth. Carefully read our advices and do not try this at home. It is better to try it on a sunny beach in the Caribbean. 1. Let others do the work As an editor at the Ecunomist, it is usually expected to be creative and come up with possible topics to write about. But this time our final editor Joëlle just told me what to write. And this brings us to the first way to become rich without economics: just sit down, relax and let others serve you. On the other hand, I am afraid that being an editor of the Ecunomist will never make us rich… So maybe there are better ways. 2. Choose rich ancestors An old Italian saying tells us that the ways to become rich can be divided into three categories. It says that “there are three ways to make money: one can inherit it, one can marry it or one can steal it”. We are looking for legal ways to get rich, so the latter is not an option. Therefore we conclude that before you are born, you should make sure that your grandparents have enough money that you can inherit. 3. Marry Bill Gates The second part of the Italian saying advises us to marry a rich person. Of all ways to get rich without studying economics, this is one of the

easiest. The only thing you need to do is say ‘yes’. However, it might be hard to find a suitable candidate who wants to marry you. Not that you are not a lovely person, but only about 0.0001 percent of the people in the world is among the people who are rich enough for this strategy to be really successful. 4. Become a famous pop star If marrying the money is so hard, why not try to make it yourself than, by making music for example? The most famous artists of the world earn enough money with one show to buy a very expensive car or in the most successful cases even a nice apartment. Also the most famous Dutch artists, like Anouk, earn several ten thousands of euros with only one show! Make a nice tour through Europe and you are very rich. But on the other hand, there are so many bands and singers trying to break through, and so little who have success. And what if you are a bad singer and untalented musician? 5. Learn to play football Running a bit, trying to hit a ball, for 90 minu-

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Article tes every week and earning millions of dollars with it. Sounds easy. The most successful football players got very rich, without having to study. So I decided to buy a ball and a pair of shoes and started practicing in the park. Practice turned out to be much more difficult than theory. The same as with pop stars applies: there are not so many who reach a break through.

8. Save everything you earn If you put all your money in a bank account and wait long enough, the accrued interest will make you rich. It might take a decade or two, but you do not have to do anything more than lying on the beach with a cocktail and wait until you are rich. But also for this strategy you first need some money.

6. Buy a football player If you can not become a successful football player, why not buy one? There are many successful examples of earning money by buying and selling football players. PSV Eindhoven for example once contracted Ronaldo. And after he had played some time at PSV, he was sold to FC Barcelona and PSV received a 34 millions of Dutch guilders (it was a long time ago, when we did not pay with euros yet). On the other hand… PSV just lost the Dutch Premier League title, so one could wonder whether this strategy is the most successful.

9. Start an internet search-engine Among the richest people on earth are those who started with Google. ‘Googling’ is even a word that has been included in the dictionary. So it seems that creating this kind of website is very lucrative. But how many Googles are there?

7. Start gambling You are a student, so you do not have anything to lose. Why not start gambling? Go to the casino or bet on sports matches. This is a quite risky way of trying to get rich, but it can be very successful. However, there is one problem. You first need money to gamble… And have you ever wondered why someone would start a casino or lottery? Not because he wants to give you some money for charity reasons, I guess.

10. Use your TomTom How to find the best road to a destination? Use a route planner. So ask your TomTom navigation software for the best way to getting rich and it might show you the way. At least the directors of TomTom found it. But it seems they deleted the road from their route planner after the TomTom had shown it to them. I could finish this guide with a fantastic hackneyed phrase: I am healthy and I am happy, I am as rich as one can be. But I might make you happier by concluding that we are in the right place, studying economics. If it is your ultimate goal to get rich or not, you at least know a great deal about money after studying economics.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Analysis

The arms industry: a moral issue? Wiebren Tabak - “Give us the tools and we will finish the job.” Thus promised Winston Churchill in 1940 in a BBC broadcast. The British premier was appealing to the Americans to supply his nation with enough war materiel to enable it to carry on the fight against Nazi Germany. In response American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt proposed to Congress a new military aid bill to “lend-lease or otherwise dispose of arms” and other supplies needed by any country whose security was vital to the defence of the United States. America would serve as an “arsenal of democracy”. This Lend-Lease Act, proposed by FDR in January 1941 and passed by Congress in March, went a long way toward solving the concerns of both Great Britain's desperate need for supplies and America's desire to appear neutral. The phrase Roosevelt coined also had a nice ring to it: arsenal of democracy. Who could disagree with that? And who would dare criticise the weapons manufacturers that were to fill this arsenal? No one in his right mind. Today it seems to be the exact opposite. The arms industry has come under heavy fire, particularly in those countries where there is little of it and where it does not significantly boost the employment figures. And no one in his right mind will spring to its defence. On the contrary. The Belgian government has recently even prohibited national banks from investing in the production of cluster bombs, on the grounds that they are inhumane weapons whose faulty bomblets kill many innocent civilians long after a conflict has ended. Encouraged by that development Netwerk Vlaanderen, the organisation that initiated this move, advocates the end to all financial involvement in the arms industry and urges people to invest their money elsewhere. If everyone were to heed their call it would in the long run be the kiss of death to the weapons manufacturers. The dawn of a New World, where peace and tranquillity reign supreme. As it turns out, the Belgians are not alone in their crusade. Recently the pension funds in the Netherlands have drawn bad publicity for their investments in the arms industry. One of the

biggest, the ABP, which administers the pensions of some 2.4 million government employees, civilian as well as military, has done very well with its shares in the American firm Raytheon, that produces a host of weapons systems.

Four M-1 Abrams tanks in various stages of upgrade on the reassembly line at Anniston Army Depot Combat Vehicle Facility. Last year their stock went up with almost twenty percent! This underlines that ABP behaves responsibly toward all those who are dependent on it for the disbursement of their pension. So, more power to them... Yet that policy is now called into question, not only by some union officials, also by the Dutch minister for development aid. Especially after a recent broadcast of the current affairs program Zembla revealed that both ABP and PGGM, another big player, had sunk some 229 million Euro in the production of cluster bombs and another 59 million in that of landmines. What this tells us is that there is not merely a financi-

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Analysis al side to investing in the arms industry, but a moral one as well. Gobal exports Let us stick to the economic aspects for just a short while longer. Figures published by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) show that the global downward trend in international transfers of major weapons was reversed in 2003. Since then there has been an increase in the volume of major arms transfers. According to national reporting, the financial values of global arms exports is estimated at $44–53 billion, or 0.5–0.6 per cent of world trade, in 2004, the most recent year for which data are available. The five largest suppliers in the period 2001–2005 were Russia, the USA, France, Germany and the UK. Russia and the USA each accounted for roughly 30 per cent of global deliveries of major weapons. It should also be noted that China is fast emerging as one of the world’s biggest, most secretive and irresponsible arms exporters, according to Amnesty International. Chinese weapons have helped sustain brutal conflicts, criminal violence and other grave human rights violations in countries such as Sudan, Nepal and Myanmar. The Amnesty report that mentioned these facts also pointed to the possible involvement of Western companies in the manufacture of some of these weapons. Which brings us to the ethics in the arms industry, that judging from the above, are sadly lacking; making the case of Netwerk Vlaanderen and like-minded organisations all the more convincing. However, their approach would only work if it were universally adopted, and that, sad to say, is unlikely to happen.

minated by them. Those who would forbid unilateral investments in the arms industry take a commendable moral view, yet lose sight of a simple historical truth. The Nazi suppression of Europe was not ended by force of arguments but by force of arms. Four years of talking did not convince the Bosnian Serbs to halt their aggression, a short NATO air and artillery offensive did. But by then 200.000 people lay dead already. Bottom line: sometimes there is simply no other alternative than to fight, and then we had better possess “the tools to do the job”, because the bad guys surely will. We can either keep our innocence and lose our freedom or lose our innocence and keep our freedom, but we cannot have both.

The Swedish submarine Södermanland after conversion. “They shall beat their swords into ploughshares and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore”, reads that wonderful vision in the Bible (Isaiah 2:4). It’s the last bit of this prophecy that we keep tripping over.

Sword into ploughshares Before targeting a specific group in our society, we must therefore examine our moral high ground. For although the arms industry may contribute towards the sustaining of conflicts, it does not as a rule start them. People do. And this is where we come to the root of the problem. From the dawn of creation to the present man has been his own greatest enemy. We live in a dangerous world filled with conflicts. And while they are fuelled by arms, they are also ter-

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Review: Debate

Vergrijzingsdebat Silvester Bosma - Dinsdag 24 april 2007 stond in de senaatszaal van het Academiegebouw een debat op het programma met als titel: “De gevolgen van de vergrijzingproblematiek voor jongeren.” De Discussie-en Lezingencommissie (DLC) van ECU’92 was verantwoordelijk voor de organisatie en presenteerde een uitgebreide line-up van debaters. Een introductie werd verzorgd door Peter Borgdorff van de Vereniging Bedrijfstak Pensioenfondsen. In het debat kwam de visie naar voren van het CPB (Peter Kooiman), het FNV (Jeroen Visser), de PvdA (Ferd Crone), VVD (Stef Blok), Jonge Democraten (Ton Monasso) en SP (Nico Schouten). Daarbij kwam ook een wetenschappelijke input van de kant van Sweder van Wijnbergen en dagvoorzitter Thijs Knaap. Genoeg input voor een inhoudelijk discussie, en dat werd het. Vergrijzing Vergrijzing is een begrip dat de afgelopen jaren steeds meer de kop op steekt. De AOW die voor alle ouderen een basisinkomen moet verzorgen is ingesteld in de jaren ’60. Het omslagstelsel waar de jongeren van nu betalen voor de ouderen van nu werkte toen nog prima omdat de verdeling ongeveer 50/50 was. Echter nu en in de jaren die komen wordt de verhouding tussen ouderen en jongeren alleen maar schever, wat tot gevolg heeft dat minder jongeren voor meer ouderen moeten gaan betalen. Verschillende aspecten komen bij deze problematiek naar voren. Zo kun je je afvragen of het wel zo’n groot probleem is als het wordt voorgeschilderd. Welke oplossingen zijn er te bedenken? Wie moet de rekening betalen van fouten uit het verleden? Is het eerlijk als jongeren meer betalen of moeten de ouderen ook gaan meebetalen? Vragen die niet zo heel makkelijk te beantwoorden zijn, maar wel de moeite van het overdenken waard zijn. Zeker voor jongeren, want zij zijn toch degene die er in de toekomst het meest mee geconfronteerd worden. Toch blijkt dat jongeren zich niet bezig houden met

vergrijzing en de gevolgen daarvan, ze laten het liever op zich afkomen. De sprekers Alle bovenstaande problemen passeerden de revue tijdens een levendig debat met verschillende soorten mensen voor een publiek met overwegend economiestudenten. Peter Kooiman (CPB) verdedigde met verve de rekenmodellen van het CPB, Jeroen Visser probeerde duidelijk te maken dat de vakcentrale FNV zich inzet voor opbouwend beleid voor alle lagen van de bevolking, Sweder van Wijnbergen probeerde uit te leggen dat het allemaal niet zo’n vaart liep en dat we ook niet in paniek moesten raken en zeker geen gekke dingen moesten doen, Stef Blok haalde uit naar de politiek die niets doet en afwacht waar de VVD allerlei maatregelen heeft genomen, Ferd Crone was het daar als PvdA’er niet mee eens en verdedigde ondertussen de fiscalisering van de AOW, Ton Monasso bleef als Jonge Democraat overeind in het geweld van de ‘ouderen’ en verdedigde met overtuiging het standpunt van de jongeren, Nico Schouten van de SP was van mening dat de jongeren niet te moeilijk moesten doen en rekening moeten blijven houden met de ouderen. Dit alles onder leiding van universitair docent Thijs Knaap die met zijn kennis van zaken verschillende stellingen heeft ingeleid. Noemenswaardig is nog dat Thijs Knaap in de pauze is geïnterviewd door BNN United. Met dit interview en het debat is wellicht een eerste stap gezet naar meer beleving onder jongeren en een oplossing voor de vergrijzingproblematiek. Alleen de tijd kan het ons leren.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Column

Sociale Dieren? Elias Hermans - Zoals elke columnist weet, is het openbaar vervoer een schier onuitputtelijke inspiratiebron voor menig stuk over de eigenaardigheden van de mens in al zijn verschijningsvormen. Wellicht komt dit door het feit dat er niet zo veel andere situaties zijn waarbij men, min of meer gedwongen, tijd doorbrengt met totale onbekenden, ook nog eens in kleine ruimtes. Men komt derhalve in aanraking met allerlei 'andere' soorten mensen. De ideale omgeving voor de observerende en analyserende mens, waartoe de columnist zich mag rekenen, dunkt mij. Zelf stuitte ik ook weer eens op een fenomeen dat zich in het openbaar vervoer aan mij onthulde. De mens wordt een 'sociaal dier' genoemd. Intermenselijk contact is belangrijk voor de mens. Sterker nog, uit onderzoek blijkt dat verbondenheid met anderen de meest bepalende factor is voor het geluksgevoel van mensen. Maar nu de waarnemingen in het gedragsonderzoeklaboratorium dat openbaar vervoer heet... Ik stapte de stadsbus in samen met een horde andere sociale dieren. In de bus waren aan de rechterkant éénzits-plaatsen, achterin waren vooral tweezitsplaatsen en voorin links was één vierzitsplaats. Wat bleek bij het instappen? De eenzitsplaatsen worden als eerste bezet tot ze allemaal bezet zijn, vervolgens loopt men door naar achteren om de tweezitsplaatsen te bezetten, het liefst door de tas bij het raam te plaatsen en zelf bij het gangpad te gaan zitten. Toen ik de bus binnen kwam, was het al behóórlijk druk in de bus, maar wat was er uitgerekend nog helemaal leeg? Juist, de vierzits. Achterin stónd al een enkeling! Precies op dat moment ging het bovenstaande door mijn hoofd en ik verbaasde mij zeer. Net toen ik vol verbazing wilde gaan zitten in de vierzits, stond er een man op vanuit een van de eenzitsplaatsen en ging weer naar buiten (hij moest blijkbaar toch een andere bus hebben). Wat deed ik in die split-second? Ik ging op de zojuist vrijgekomen eenzitsplaats zitten! Ik ben net zo!

Al deze sociale dieren willen niets liever dan fijn contact hebben met anderen, maar dan blijkbaar niet met die vreemde, onbekende sociale dieren. De mens doet er zelfs alles aan om de directe nabijheid van anderen te voorkomen. Is het niet door zo snel mogelijk de individuele zitplaatsen te bezetten, dan is het wel door het zo onaantrekkelijk mogelijk maken van andermans optie om naast jou plaats te nemen. Het als eerste plaatsnemen in een vierzits beperkt de mogelijkheid van het opwerpen van barricades tegen de medepassagiers blijkbaar zodanig, dat menigeen nog liever staat! In de trein is het al niet anders, inclusief bagagebarricades en strategisch zitgedrag. En de NS speelt hier goed op in door het aantal klassieke vierzitsbanken geleidelijk te vervangen door meer geïndividualiseerde zitplaatsen. Mensen zijn helemaal niet op zoek naar contact met anderen maar proberen dit juist te vermijden. De uitzondering is een enkel oud dametje dat nog daadwerkelijk de behoefte voelt naast je te komen zitten en een gesprekje aan te knopen. Vroeger was dat blijkbaar wel normaal. Nu wordt ze vreemd aangekeken. Toch doe ik in het openbaar vervoer precies hetzelfde als de rest van de mensen. Jij waarschijnlijk ook. Maar er is voor mij een heel duidelijke grens: een staanplaats verkiezen boven een ruime, vrije zitplaats gaat te allen tijde te ver.

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Analysis

Turn the Tide - Global Warming Joëlle Tabak - “If only Al Gore had become president…” That was the only thought in my mind as I turned off the television after watching ‘An Inconvenient Truth’. The fact that the United States is one of the two big countries (Australia being the other one) that have not ratified the Kyoto protocol, can be seen as the ‘legacy’ of George W. Bush. But certainly not one that we would like to leave behind for future generations. And so, ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ definitely plays an important and essential part in ringing alarm bells worldwide. Of course, Gore is not averse to dramatizing as he presents the consequences of Global Warming. But much of his ‘evidence’ that global warming is happening and that mankind is the primary cause of it, sounds convincing to me. The most significant example being a graph about the temperature of the ice at Antarctica. With sophisticated techniques, researchers are able to gauge the temperature of the ice at the time it was formed, going back for thousands of years. This graph contrasts with all the others in that it not only takes recent temperature developments into account, which critics always claim to be part of ordinary cyclic behavior. The graph with ice temperature measurements clearly shows that a clear interruption in the cyclical temperature movement is occurring right now to which some external force must be contributing: mankind. Prisoner’s dilemma While many critics have found Gore’s story not to be completely watertight, the fact remains that if only a fraction of it is true, then you’d better begin separating your garbage. Unfortunately, politicians are not so willing to separate their policy ‘garbage’. They’d rather blame each other for contributing to the Global Warming by bad policies, than search their own conscience which would be much more costly to them. Economists might recognize the

prisoner’s dilemma in this reasoning. Taking measures in the area of Global Warming prevention, means investing in alternatives for which politicians would only receive a return in the long-term. Since other countries refuse to take the same measures, governments often do not see the point in making these expensive investments. The prisoner’s dilemma can be viewed most clearly when looking at the power play between China and India on the one hand, and the United States on the other. When designing the Kyoto protocol, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change differentiated between developing and industrialized countries in sharing responsibilities. The underlying thought was that greenhouse gas emissions during the industrialization period, were the main contributors to Global Warming. As a consequence, an exemption was made for developing countries like China and India who weren’t as much t o

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Analysis blame. However a strange paradox occurs right now, namely that two of the most polluting countries in the world are exempt from adhering to the pollution reductions agreed upon in the Kyoto protocol. The United States in turn refuses to ratify Kyoto, as long as China and India are exempt from it. This political game seems to be the main reason why a worldwide fight against Global Warming is not getting off the ground. Not only countries, consumers also are held back by the prisoner’s dilemma. Why invest in double glass windows and a floor heating system and deny yourself luxuries like taking a long bath or using a laundry dryer, if your neighbors go on polluting and consuming? The problem is that if every individual feels that way, nothing will happen. And that’s why coordinated national policy action is so essential. The Netherlands So much for the world stage. Let’s look at the impact of Global Warming in the Netherlands. The Dutch National Weather Institute, the KNMI, has developed several scenarios for the Netherlands by making use of climate models. But current models do not take into account sudden changes caused by the paralysis of the Gulf Stream or the melting of the ice at Greenland or Antarctica. The KNMI recognizes that, because much about these phenomenons remains unknown, current climate models still show a lot of shortcomings. However, this does not mean that some general remarks about the Netherlands cannot be made. The most important one being that there’s an 80 percent chance that in this century the sea level will rise between 35 and 85 centimeters. With an even greater increase next century, the western part of the Netherlands will find it difficult to cope with the problems of a rising water table caused by this higher sea level. As mentioned, this process can be speeded up by the melting of ice at the North Pole. As Gore already pointed out it is likely that the more ice melts, the faster the melting process will be as the sea absorbs 90% of sun heat where the same 90% bounces off on ice. Also,

the Netherlands will face the same rise in temperature as the rest of the world, with an estimate varying between 1.5- 6 degrees. Uncertainty is in this case driven by uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of a precise understanding about the working of the climate system. But it will certainly mean more dry and hot summers, like those of 2003 and 2006. The costs If the process of Global Warming is not stopped, the costs will be tremendous. Not only those expressed in the threat of the living environment of flora, fauna and human kind but also economic costs brought about by the necessity of making changes. Ekki van Ierland, professor of environmental economy at the Wageningen University and Researchcentre, has calculated that adjustments in the Netherlands will require tens of billions of euros. Affording more space to rivers would already cost 26 billion; let alone the construction of climate proof housing which has a price tag of another 23 billion. Finally, adjustments to the ecological structure and the sewerage add up to 63 billion of dollars if the temperature rise is limited to 1 percent. It is a pity no such precise calculations for other countries exist, but anyone can figure out that costs on a world level would be astronomical. Not to leave you with a greater depression than in the 1930s, I would like to conclude by saying that the technology to combat the climate problem is all there. To put it in the words of An Inconvenient Truth: ‘We definitely have the knowledge and capability to turn the tide. What is needed is social, but above all political will.’ Again: “If only Al Gore had become president…”

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

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Column

Reflections of a Dakosaurus Y.S. Brenner - Chicago. My wife's sister and her family were living in Skokie and we spent a few days visiting with them. They drove us to Chicago twice. But I wanted to see more. There is a train from Skokie linking up with the Chicago subway, the loop as they call it. So each morning I went sightseeing on my own. It was a beautiful warm summer. I did not need a jacket and took only identification papers, train and subway tickets, and a few dollars. I picked a subway station at random to get off, and walked from there in the direction of the lake. From there I was able to take the train back to Skokie. The trouble with coming out of a subway station is that you do not immediately know the directions. So one day, I think it was near Cicero station of Al Capone fame, I wasn't sure if to turn left or right for getting to the Golden Mile. The street near the station was empty but for two young men and a young woman standing together across the road. One of the men was white and the other man and the woman were black. I crossed over and asked them for the way. "You take bus number so and so and then change to number so and so," the black man told me. "You’d better take the "loop" it is quicker and you need not change anywhere," said the white man pointing to the station I just came from. I thanked them and explained that I just came by the "loop" and intended to walk. "Man. No. It's too far," said the black man. "It'll cost you a lot of time. You’d better take the subway," added the other. I thanked them again and said that I had plenty of time and that I intended to walk. "Here is one who has plenty of time. Man! It will take you hours. You can't walk all the way," said the black man. I replied that it made no difference how long it takes because I was on holidays, and that walking was the best way to see a city one has not seen before. "I have as much time as it takes." "He's got time. Man, here is one who got time and wants to walk miles," the black man said obviously amused, and he looked at me as if I was some rare animal. "No, no, it is very far, you’d better take a bus,"

the other man insisted. The woman, who had not spoken before, pulled two dollar bills from a pocket of her tightly fitting trousers and held them out to me. "Can't you see he ain't got the fare." I took out my money and showed it to her. "Thank you kindly, but you see it is not the fare. I really want to walk." The white man said: "You are not an American. Where do you come from?" “He is from England. I can tell by his accent," the other young man decided. For a moment I thought to leave it at that, but they kept looking at me waiting for confirmation. So I told them that I was from the Netherlands. "From Amsterdam?" the woman asked. "No. Not from Amsterdam, from Utrecht." "And you walk from Utrecht to Amsterdam?" I laughed. "No. It is too far, about 30 miles. I take the train." "But on your holidays you walk." "That's right." They showed me the direction and accompanied me for a few blocks. I had the feeling that they never walked so much before in their entire life. Back in Skokie I told my brother-in- law about the encounter. He looked very scared. "You could easily have been mugged and robbed. You cannot just get off anywhere in Chicago. It is dangerous." I felt like saying: "Very dangerous. You may be offered two dollars by a pretty young woman." But I restrained myself. Bilthoven: April 2007

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

Final Say

Our Uncultured Colleagues Florian Krätke - Culture in Holland is an interesting fabric, in the sense that it is completely unhinged. There is seemingly no real colluding factor, just odd strands tied to one another without any clear pattern. Frustration bubbles at the tears and lack of symmetry in the overall piece. This deplorable state makes it increasingly harder for other cultures, brought here by internationals, to be soaked up in the pleats of Dutch society. The situation here at USE offers a small-scale xray of the disparity as a whole. We can spot several aspects which are in fine shape. First, there is variety in the population, which is essential for the formation of carefully-weighed, aggregate thoughts and decisions. Second, there is a unified goal and structure – the study of economics, at one faculty, striving for the same diploma is the shared horizon. Lastly, there is another crucial element for most processes; time. So Dutch culture does provide the founding blueprint for an effective, expressive culture, but lacks the know-how and ingenuity to make it grow from there. One element is missing to complete the above list: interaction. Looking at the whole picture, we need to be very aware of an important distinction. In Holland, it is the presence of foreign people (and their cultures) that is accepted, not their values and what perspective they might bring. Indeed, the Dutch are mostly passive towards shared values, taking the youadapt-to-us approach towards integration. This distance creates a high barrier for guests to get through, and hinders any real collusion. Without any reciprocal interest for sharing and diffusion no advances can be made. When regarding the question of why the Dutch mostly stick to shallow ties with foreigners, be they colleagues or acquaintances, we can find several clues to this attitude in history. Seeing as nearly every time Holland - as much as it was called that back then - came into contact with foreign nations it has been harmed, its only natural there is an in-bread weariness (which filters through regardless of how little the Dutch know about their own history).

However, this implies it’s more than just the shyness of a 14-year old at a high-school prom we are dealing with here; serious underlying xenophobia is pulsing through society’s veins. Distrust is bread further when we confront the stark fact that Dutch culture in itself is…well, isn’t. Only in the direst conditions can an effective unifying cry be heard, while the rest of the time one struggles to observe a binding factor which paints the cultural picture. This nation wears culture like their least favourite sweater – never comfortable with its odd size, shape and smell but still dusting it off every now and then because their friends all have one, because their mother gave it to them and because it’s what all the hip kids wear. With it on, they hope to blend; instead, they bland. It seems fashionable for the Dutch to take this last criticism and spin it, implying that ‘Dutch sobriety’ be anything but a con. As for a solution to this apparent lack of identity, the Dutch would have to grow up and get over their latent fear of foreigners, using the available elements as a necessary fashionupgrade. Crossing the gaps by building bridges, then filling them from the outside in will prove most effective, and it isn’t even that difficult. After all, didn’t the Dutch invent slavery?

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

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