Issue 122 FEATURE: THE CARRIER GUIDE to 2022

FEATURE: THE CARRIER GUIDE to 2022

TRAFFIC, TECHNOLOGY AND UNSUNG HEROES

BY MATTIAS FRIDSTRÖM

According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2022 is the Year of the Tiger. In Chinese culture, tigers are considered brave, competitive, unpredictable and confident. They are very charming and liked by others, but sometimes they can be irritable and overindulgent. In many ways, I can’t help but think this is a good metaphor for most telecom companies in our industry in general. Most of the time, you enjoy working with most players in the telecom ecosystem, but from time to time, you just cannot stand your supplier as you do not understand why things happen the way they do.

Our world was turned upside down in 2020 and continued to be un-normal throughout 2021 with an added “chipmageddon” to complicate the picture further. The growth continued from a traffic perspective, and many challenges will persist into 2022. Addressing these, we’ll need to relentlessly pursue our mission to ensure reliable, fast and secure connectivity across the globe. And in keeping with our traditional ‘Top 3’ predictions for the year ahead, here are a few thoughts about 2022.

THE TOP 3 GLOBAL CARRIER INDUSTRY TRENDS

1. Security is increasingly important. With the massive increase of traffic during the pandemic came a flood of attacks on various parts of the network. Hackers seem to find new ways of attacking their targets, and our industry needs to be at its very best to keep up with protecting networks from these anomalies. While security awareness has increased, 2022 will be the year when every service provider or operator will have to have a plan for protecting their network. From DDoS protection to firewalls and everything in between.

2. Public Internet and raw bandwidth can take you a long way. The circa 70,000 active AS networks that currently form the Internet has proven to be a great underlay for most network services needed by the industry. The great scale of a few solid global Internet backbones combined with regional and local networks form a great platform to grow services. With this in mind, paired with the increasingly skilled workforce in many Enterprises, means the services they buy should be less and less sophisticated. Less managed solutions and increasingly more “raw” bandwidth between data centers is the best way forward for many Enterprise customers.

3. The future is open and disaggregated. If we believe the current component shortage will ease during 2022, we are in for a great year changing the way networks are built. While the traditional long-haul optical business is still slowly changing towards more disaggregation, the addition of 400G ZR optics has changed the playing field. Fully standardized pluggable components bring a wealth of opportunities to mix and match between different suppliers and still keep the operational side under control. In 2022 we will see most Operators and Service Providers dip their toes into this new world of building networks.

THE TOP 3 TECHNOLOGY AND TRAFFIC TRENDS

1. More intelligent. Performance data is pouring out of networks, yet very few service providers know what to do with all this data. The traditional skillset in an operations department is more technical, with loads of knowledge about how to physically repair cards and ports in the best way. With networks becoming increasingly dependent on software, these skillsets need to be replaced and supplemented with software engineer skills. In 2022 we will see companies focusing a lot to close this knowledge gap without replacing their entire teams. The right company support paired with education and an openness to change among the workforce will result in far more intelligent network prepared in the future.

2. More Automated. More automation has been a target for many Operators for at least the last five years, yet many things are still dealt with completely manually. A lot of this falls back to unclear or unclean data in various systems. Weak and unstructured inventory systems, complicated delivery tools, and stand-alone billing systems are just a few examples of areas that could prevent telcos from becoming more automated. The past few years have shown signs of true automation, and have show signs

Figure 4: The Echo and Bifrost

there are no signs that 2022 will diverse not be trans-Pacific even Submarine better

year for automating many manual functions. Cable Finally, Systems. AI and ML provides some tangible results around running network services.

3. More Connected. Ericsson predicted back in 2009that 50 000 000 000 devices will be connected 10 years later. While we still have not reached that number, at least more than 10 000 000 000 devices will be connected by the end of 2021. With more connections

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FEATURE

comes more traffic and an increased awareness of how important telecom/Internet networks have become. Politicians and other Authorities are finally becoming aware of the importance of great connectivity for practically every function in today’s society. With this comes the obvious increased vulnerability to cyber-crime and the increased tension between Countries around asset ownership and cyber espionage. “Telecom” will again become a top topic for politicians.

THE TOP 3 AREAS FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN THE CARRIER BUSINESS

1. The network itself. For years it seemed like the only way for a Carrier to become more sustainable on the network side was to beg your colocation provider to buy more “green” energy. The data center industry has come a long way in their green thinking, focusing on renewable energy sources, smart cooling, and even heat recovery to reduce CO2 emissions. Still, the rest of how we build and operate networks is far behind. In 2022 there will be more focus on CO2 calculations, circular economy discussions and why we still “dig” networks as we did 30 years ago.

2. Your workforce. Parts of our industry have traditionally been very male dominant with an aging workforce as a result. With the industry more focused on software, it is a perfect time to use the advantage of a workforce diverse in both gender, age and nationality. In 2022 many more companies will realize that a diverse workforce adds better decision making and becomes a much better place to work within. Initiatives like “Women in Tech” and “Fiber splicing summer schools,” among others, will be increasingly important.

3. The way you conduct your business. With the world becoming more connected and open comes further responsibilities for telco operators. With the public Internet being a trust-based network, every AS network needs to focus on its role. Anti-bribery, freedom of speech, limited corruption are just a few examples of areas that will play an even more important role during 2022. Companies that do not have trust from

their customers or peers will disappear faster than ever before.

THE TOP 3 THINGS WHERE THE COST DOES NOT GO DOWN

1. Space. With real estate pricing more or less increasing every year, the spill-over effect on telecom colocation space is inevitable. As most data centers are located in prime locations close to large city centers where space is both scarce and costly, the problems seem to persist. During 2022 we will see an increasing focus on smaller equipment and, more importantly, the removal of older and more sizeable gear.

2. Power. The cost of power (OPEX) is one of the largest challenges operators face today. Some of this is due to general power price increases on the electricity market, but some are driven by legacy equipment that is complex

“YOU CAN’T PREDICT THE FUTURE, BUT YOU CAN BE READY!

and fragmented. Many operators run older gear simply because it still works. Why change it if it isn’t broken? The problem is that outdated equipment was not designed with efficiency in mind. In the past, increased performance was much more important than the efficiency or cost of Watt/ Mb. This is changing, and in 2022 Service Providers and Operators will challenge their Suppliers even further to have power on their minds when designing the next generation of equipment.

3. Skilled people. Without people who understand the mathematical complexities of network automation and streaming telemetry, it is unrealistic to assume that the major hurdles of true automation can be overcome. While machines and software will do more and more for us, they still need to be designed and programmed to perform what we ask them to do. Skilled labor who combine industry expertise with software knowledge

22 SUBMARINE TELECOMS MAGAZINE

does not come for free. In 2022 it will be even more important to have the workforce in place to meet all challenges the industry will force upon you.

THE TOP 3 SKILL GAPS IN THE CARRIER INDUSTRY

1. Finance people that know IP. Measuring IP traffic on a single port is not that difficult. Measuring traffic over many IP ports in many different time zones at 90 seconds intervals and then combining it into one understandable overview that ends up in an invoice to a customer is very different. The future of billing for IP services has become an art in itself. We need to find more financially skilled people to understand the IP business and continue serving customers with accurate data to back up the invoices sent to them.

2. IP people that know Optics. Recent developments around the 400G ZR and ZR+ area, the open ROADM initiative and XR optics have created a new world where IP and Optics are no longer two distinctly different “business”. Adding lasers to pluggables and, in some cases, just ignoring the optical layer between routers have identified the new need for more optical skills within the IP knowledgeable people. They previously only needed to know how short the distance was to the closest DWDM box, they now need to handle completely different distances and optical parameters. In 2022 we will see major developments and installations here.

3. Optical people that understand finance — this is not so much of a skills gap as it reflects the cost scenario we have seen on optical gear the last couple of years compared to the developments within the IP business. The use of merchant silicon and standardization have pushed down the cost of IP components, thus supporting the ever need by Carriers to lower the cost / Mb. The perceived lack of competition in the optical industry has forced Carriers to push for more disaggregation and openness. In the end, this will be solved and progress will really be made during 2022.

THE TOP 3 UNSUNG HEROES

1. The office cleaner. With one more year of people working from home you must admire the cleaning staff that has to clean a 2,000-man office that typically hosts 50-100 employees a day. Unfortunately, with new mutations of the coronavirus constantly appearing combined with a new view of working from anywhere, we may never fill the offices as we did before. Let’s hope we have enough people coming for the office

cleaners to have a job.

2. The sea cable diver. Taking a swim close to the shore in the Mediterranean Sea to locate a broken cable sounds like a job anyone of us would love. However, doing the same in a frozen Baltic Sea is something different. Unfortunately, not all sea cables are cut in the warmest waters closest to the shore. For deep water recovery and repair, we have remotely operated submerged vehicles, but for cuts in very shallow water you simply need divers with no fear of freezing to death during recovery and repair.

3. “The spaghetti planner”. Most of the current networks have developed during the last 20-25 years. During those years, many cable routes have been added, each to connect two or more buildings / Point of Presence (PoPs) inside a city area with many times “as short as possible” as the only guidance. With new demands coming and some customers asking for triple diversity out of a city to another city, todays route planners need “Sherlock Holmes” skills to find three fiber routes that do not cross each other in any section of their way between different PoPs. City networks looking like spaghetti is not uncommon these days.

Predictions are, of course, just predictions, and we wish everyone in the telecom ecosystem – from business partners to end-users and the companies in between, a brighter year ahead, with health and prosperity. Though, one thing is certain that 2022 will be full of excitement and change. As we always say here at Telia Carrier, “You can’t predict the future, but you can be ready!” STF

MATTIAS FRIDSTRÖM is Chief Evangelist of Telia. With over 20 years in the telecommunications industry, Mattias Fridström can be considered a veteran – but his enthusiasm hasn’t faded.

Mattias combines expert knowledge with anecdotes from behind the scenes and deep insight into the networked economy: What are the challenges of tomorrow for network providers? How can we meet ever-increasing traffic demand and customer quality expectations within the same cost frame?

Mattias holds an MSc in Electrical Engineering from the University of Wollongong, Australia. Since joining Telia in 1996, he has worked in a number of senior roles within Telia Carrier and most recently as CTO. Since July 2016 he is Telia Carriers Chief Evangelist.

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