24 minute read
FEATURE: Looking Forward to 2022
FEATURE: LOOKING FORWARD to 2022
Industry Predictions for the Year Ahead
SIMON WEBSTER DIRECTOR, SUBMARINE NETWORKS EMEA NEC
Simon Webster Director, Submarine Networks EMEA NEC
Simon Webster has a degree in Physics from Oxford University, plus master’s and Business qualifications from the University of London and Henley Management College, respectively. He has been with NEC since 1994, and currently heads NEC’s business in EMEA for submarine cable networks and ocean observation systems. He has held many previous roles over this time, in areas including terrestrial optics, access networks and mobile applications.
A Strengthened Virtuous Circle - As a result of the way we have adapted to travel limitations in the last two years, we can expect changes in our working styles to have long-term effects. For many people, video calls and home working will be features of business life for years to come, and that of course means more live streaming content. 5G networks are now a reality for many, and we expect that the virtuous circle formed between; (a) the availability of global end-to-end capacity, and (b) the appetite for users and developers to consume that capacity, to strengthen in 2022.
Growing Content and Global Capacity Demand - Looking forward, new ways of connecting people are being imagined and developed which will demand ever more connectivity and capacity from communication networks. Game-changing technologies such as AR and VR are advancing at pace, along with other co-enablers in the realms of commerce, privacy, and other areas. It is perhaps unlikely that 2022 will be described by future historians as “the year of the metaverse”, but there is every reason to expect growing demand for content and global capacity in the current decade.
Growing High Fiber Count Cable Demand - Given the above, the outlook for international subsea capacity demand is highly positive. In technology terms, this demand will be mainly met in 2022 by high fiber count cables. We are currently manufacturing 24 fiber pair cables for imminent deployment on transoceanic trunk systems, with other innovations such as multicore fiber following along shortly afterwards – subject as ever to considerations of techno-economic viability, which underpin our industry.
Proving Corporate Social Responsibility Credentials - Finally, on a different level, we are seeing increasing demands from cable investors to prove our Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) credentials, not just in terms of headline environmental sustainability numbers, but also in demonstrating leadership in deeper supply chain management, covering issues such as health and safety, resilience to rapidly-changing market conditions, and so on. 2022 will see no change in this direction of travel.
PATRICIO REY GENERAL MANAGER DESARROLLO PAIS
PATRICIO REY GENERAL MANAGER DESARROLLO PAIS
Patricio Alberto Rey Sommer is General Manager of Desarrollo País (Fondo de Infraestructura S.A.) and an industrial civil engineer, with a master’s degree in engineering sciences from the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. In his professional career, he has worked in operational and financial areas of various companies such as Procter & Gamble, Budnik and Prize. He has also worked in the public sector, planning for the Regional Ministerial Health Authorities and Mayor of the Libertador Bernardo O’Higgins Region, where he led reconstruction projects after the earthquake of February 22, 2010. Previously, he covered the role of Manager of the National Network, of the Chilean Chamber of Construction (the union that brings together the main Chilean builders, contractors, and concessionaires). He currently holds the position of General Manager of Desarrollo País (Fondo de Infraestructura S.A.) from where he seeks to promote the development of sustainable and resilient infrastructure for Chile.
Hybrid work is here to stay - We have tasted the benefits of combining remote with onsite work. This will keep pressure on the global network requirements and even increase traffic as new innovative solutions will be offered to workers and companies. We are seeing companies selling part of their offices aiming on keeping this model. More extreme solutions could allow workers to work from very far away blurring national borders and lightening pressure on real estate markets.
Living with the Pandemic - We will have to find a way to live with the pandemic. Booster shots will be provided every semester and the fastest we resume business as usual and leverage our new routines with communication technology the most competitive we will be. Business travel should resume at a lower (more essential) level but arrive to some normality.
Antarctica Connectivity - Serious projects to connect the last continent to be reached by High Speed Fiber optic networks (Antarctica) will be in place to be executed ASAP. Either from the southernmost part of the South American continent or from the New Zealand area, Antarctica will be conquered, and 2022 is a crucial year to forge the initiatives. Science organizations are looking at this very closely and are eager to chip
TIM DOIRON SENIOR DIRECTOR SOLUTIONS MARKETING INFINERA
TIM DOIRON SENIOR DIRECTOR SOLUTIONS MARKETING INFINERA
Tim Doiron is Sr. Director, Solution Marketing at Infinera, where he focuses on innovative networking solutions that include open optical networking, disaggregated routing, next-generation mobile transport, and intelligent software automation. In this role, Tim leads the global marketing team responsible for go-to-market strategies and communications programs. Built upon open, disaggregated, and programmable network innovation, Infinera’s solutions enable network operators to increase networking capacity and visibility while accelerating service velocity and simplifying operations.
Tim brings more than 25 years of networking and telecommunications experience across business and technical organizations, including roles in marketing, product management, and engineering in executive and managerial roles at vendor and service provider companies, including Coriant, Tellabs, AR- RIS, Cadant, Ericsson, and AT&T Mobility. Tim was also a Principal Analyst at ACG Research. Tim is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and has authored numerous articles. He holds an MBA from Webster University, an M.S. in electrical engineering from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and a B.S. in electrical engineering from Southern Illinois University. He also holds eight patents and is a member of IEEE and the Optical Society (OSA).
Supply Constraints Will Continue Into 2022 - If the COVID-19 pandemic taught us anything, it is about the nature and dependency of our global supply chains. From construction materials to the chips that power our phones, laptops, and automobiles; to servers that power the network. As we approach our second year with the pandemic, companies are rethinking the resiliency and diversity of their supply chains, as well as the amount of vertical integration they have internally and under their direct control. While supply constraints will continue into 2022, by creating supplier diversity and more deeply integrating their solutions, vendors should emerge with an enhanced ability to supply products to customers on time and within budget.
800G Goes Big - The mass adoption of 800G coherent technology in 2022 will create new opportunities for service providers and their networks. Legacy submarine networks will get lifespan and capacity extensions, while modern cables will push capacity to an incredible 28 Tb/s per fiber pair. 800G also enables the cost-effective transport of 400G client services literally everywhere. 2022 is also the year that 400G interfaces hit routers. The combination of programmability and advanced technologies like 96 Gbaud symbol rates, second-generation digital subcarriers, and long-codeword probabilistic constellation shaping is enabling superior performance vs. prior generations at 800 Gb/s, but also at 700 Gb/s, 600 Gb/s and 400 Gb/s. Programmability also means 800 G transmission technology is applicable to more networks at any reach, including fixed- or flexible-grid channel spacings and legacy or modern fiber optic cables. The ability to provide increased capacity per fiber with fewer wavelengths and less equipment creates compelling economics for accelerated 800 Gb/s coherent adoption in submarine, long-haul, DCI, and metro networks with limited fiber availability.
Submarine SDM Cables Hit Their Stride - After an initial surge in demand for submarine network capacity triggered by Covid-19, the underlying trend in subsea shows no signs of slowing down. But one of the challenges is that 800G coherent technology is also pushing ever closer to the theoretical limit (also known as the Shannon Limit) for submarine cables of all types. The industry foresaw this challenge several years ago and has been developing a new cable architecture dubbed Space Division Multiplexing (SDM). While it takes several years to plan and deploy a submarine cable, the first SDM systems are now coming on-line and carrying live traffic. More of these systems are due to go live in 2022 and the additional capacity they bring in routes like the Atlantic Ocean will soon exceed the total capacity of all existing transatlantic cables combined. New cables also increase capacity to the rapidly developing African continent by a factor of four. The roadmap for future SDM designs isn’t stopping either as new designs are already describing Petabit scale cables in the foreseeable future.
Open Optical Networking (OON) Becomes a Requirement - While open optical networking (OON) is common in subsea networks today, OON has been less common in terrestrial. With a variety of optical engine technologies coming from multiple suppliers deployed in heterogeneous environments with diverse network elements, including routers and optical transponders, network operators realize that they cannot afford to miss out on the next generation of pluggable or embedded optical engine technology. They must embrace open optical networking to avoid missing out and hurting network competitiveness. Since increased operational complexity is a top OON concern, advanced software solutions that ease the insertion and operationalization of next-generation transponders onto third party line systems Manager will emerge in 2022. OON is also an imperative to enable optical engine sourcing from multiple suppliers, reducing supply chain risk.
Carbon Neutral Goals Will Be Prioritized in the Boardroom - Companies are no longer just thinking about incremental improvements when it comes to carbon neutral goals. With countries and companies focused on reducing their carbon footprint and overall power consumption, 2022 will be the year when green network initiatives move onto network operator executive dashboards. While nearterm achievements are necessary, network operators are also beginning to set ambitious long-term goals. These ambitions will require both incremental improvements for today’s network architectures and vision to re-imagine tomorrow’s. Technology innovations like XR optics with support for point-to-multipoint architectures can provide leapfrog or step-function improvements in power and footprint by reducing the number of transceivers by almost 50% and eliminating the need for intermediate electrical aggregation. If you don’t set goals and objectives, you’re going to miss out. Demand for network capacity will continue to grow, from the access edge to metro, long-haul, and submarine networks, traffic growth is putting pressure on our networks and our supply chains. Increased bandwidth growth at the edge of the network, whether coming from residential broadband, 5G, or enterprise services, is causing network operators to rethink their network architectures and management. Despite the delays and the challenges we expect to see in 2022, advances in 800G embedded optical engines, additional SDM submarine cable activations, and an embrace of open optical networking in terrestrial networks, I am incredibly excited about the future of optical networking in 2022 and beyond. I wish you a safe and successful year to come.
JIM FAGAN CHIEF STRATEGY AND REVENUE OFFICER GLOBAL CLOUD XCHANGE
JIM FAGAN CHIEF STRATEGY AND REVENUE OFFICER GLOBAL CLOUD XCHANGE
Jim Fagan is Chief Strategy & Revenue Officer at Global Cloud Xchange (GCX). He is a transformative and proven Technology Executive with 20+ years of experience spanning across private & public companies, private equity owned to large publicly traded multinational companies across the US, Asia Pacific, and China. Track record of cross functional success with a strong financial background, deep technical product, operations, sales, and general management expertise. Ability to create strategy and operationally deliver while also building and driving disruptive technologies into the market. Possesses experience in Capital Markets, bond and equity with strong M&A experience including integration. Considered an industry expert in Cloud, Data Center and Software Defined Networks (SDN), frequently speaking at industry leading events.
APAC, Middle East Subsea Capacity Demand to Grow on 5G, Content - Global internet and cloud capacity is growing fast, and subsea cables provide the backbone to support that growth. In 2021, the industry witnessed continued growth and significant upticks in Asia Pacific (APAC) and Middle East capacity demand. We see that trend continuing. This is driven by accelerating demand for content in these markets combined with delays in planned additional capacity in the market. As hyperscalers expand closer to the end-user, enterprises still need seamless connectivity back to their primary cloud. That’s the only way the product works. Enterprises in countries where providers don’t have a cloud presence need to go subsea to connect. In 2022, the industry can expect a continued focus on Europe, the Middle East, and India as well as APAC, driven by accelerating 5G rollouts in these markets. At the heart of this growth is increasing content consumption, including popular social media platforms, streaming, and gaming.
DR. JERRY BROWN TECHNICAL DIRECTOR OCEAN CABLES LTD.
DR. JERRY BROWN TECHNICAL DIRECTOR OCEAN CABLES LTD.
Dr. Jerry Brown, Technical Director, Ocean Cables Ltd., provides solutions and independent consultancy services to the subsea cable industry. He has held Technical positions with Hengtong Marine, Ocean Specialists Inc., JDR Cable Systems and Alcatel Submarine Networks.
Jerry has 30+ years’ experience in the subsea industry. Working in R&D, Engineering design, Marine Operations (onshore and offshore), in Project Management and most recently with umbilical and fiber optic cable manufacturing has given Jerry a rounded experience of wet plant systems.
He was responsible for the start-up of the JDR umbilical manufacturing facility in Thailand and for working with OSI & Chevron on the CAT-Submarine-Cable-System providing connectivity to 9 offshore-platforms.
Subsea Cable Maintenance - The subsea cable maintenance sector is expected to produce some surprises, with more new build vessels and conversions announced in the next 12 months. The industry will see new owners and operators enter the industry especially in shallow water services and with modular spreads for fiber optic repeatered cable repairs in remote areas.
System Design - The first 32 fiber pair repeatered telecoms system will be announced this year!
Subsea Cable Owners and Suppliers - System owners will become more diverse with additional (yes even more) investment from Data Center Operators to secure capacity for their own Networks. Mergers & Acquisitions will be a regular feature in the weekly news updates. Don’t be surprised if there is another shake up in the ownership of key system suppliers / manufacturers.
SMART Cables - This will be the year marked as the real start of SMART cable networks. The dual use of submarine cable systems for Scientific Monitoring and Reliable Telecommunications termed SMART systems will be turned into reality with new project announcements and new technical solutions to facilitate the construction of new regional systems.
SEAN BERGIN CO -FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT APTELECOM
SEAN BERGIN CO -FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT APTELECOM
Sean Bergin is Co-Founder and President of APTelecom. Sean has been instrumental in building APTelecom into a globally recognized leader in telecom and due diligence consulting, elevating from a start-up business to an award-winning global organization which has generated over US $400 million in sales for clients.
Sean has significant management experience at both national and international levels at Telstra & BT. Bergin has also served as Director of Sales for Australia Japan Cable, an international wholesale submarine cable system linking Australia and Japan.
Sean is also the President & Chair of the Board of Governors for Pacific Telecommunications Council (PTC) and is a frequent speaker and panelist within the ICT sector. Sean has worked and resided in SE Asia for more than 20 years.
Post Covid World for Digital Infrastructure in 2022 and Beyond - From a global infrastructure / subsea point of view, the Internet has withstood the onslaught of increased demand generated as a consequence of Covid surprisingly well. Global growth in worldwide data consumption certainly spiked when Covid hit hard early on, and the subsea industry responded brilliantly, activating additional capacity as rapidly as possible. We expect however that although the subsea elements continue to provide content, services, and access reliably, the focus will shift towards enhancing last mile networks and edge access to support the ‘new normal’ with many organizations now embracing work from home environments.
Data Centers and Fiber - We anticipate seeing closer alignment between data centers and subsea cables. Data Centers typically offer open access environments providing rich ecosystems for subsea cables to directly interconnect with. This has a multitude of benefits from a commercialization perspective, and we see this trend as taking further hold throughout 2022. Open access cables are the future, and this can only truly be achieved in open access Data Centers.
Nonuser Generated Demand - AI, Blockchain, Crypto and edge computing account for a significant portion of internet traffic / consumption. In 2018, 33% of all traffic was machine to machine. In 2021, this has jumped to 50% (ref: Gartner). We expect this trend to continue and accelerate in 2022. This creates opportunities for the industry as a whole but does place pressure on data center space and of course, the need for greener power consumption models.
ROBERT LINGLE, JR. SENIOR DIRECTOR OF MARKET STRATEGY OFS
ROBERT LINGLE, JR. SENIOR DIRECTOR OF MARKET STRATEGY OFS
Robert Lingle, Jr. is Senior Director of Market Strategy at OFS in Norcross, GA and has served as Adjunct Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He has a research background in short pulse lasers and their application to fundamental processes in liquids and interfaces, with a Ph.D. in physics from LSU and a postdoc in surface physics at UC Berkeley. At Bell Labs and now OFS, he did research in glass science & fiber design and managed the development & commercialization of multiple new optical fiber types. He is currently responsible for helping his colleagues at OFS understand and influence market & technology trends that drive our industry. His team also conducts applications research in high speed interconnects over MMF, coherent transmission over large area, ultra-low loss fibers, including techno-economic analysis of space-division multiplexing for submarine cable systems. Dr. Lingle is chair of the IEEE P802.3db Short Reach Fiber Task Force, previously chairing the IEEE P802.3cm 400 Gb/s over MMF Task Force.
Higher Capacity At Lower Cost-Per-Bit - In 2022, we expect to see very strong interest in 24-fiber pair, trans-oceanic cables that continue to leverage large effective area, ultra-low loss (ULL) fibers, enabling 500 Tb/s cable capacity. The industry cut its teeth on SDM (space-division multiplexing) with 12 and 16-fiber pair systems over the past five years, and 24-fiber pair cables are now the practical state-of-the-art. The use of 110 or 125 mm2 fibers allows significant reduction in fiber loss vs. 80 mm2 fiber, which is critical to efficient electrical power usage in SDM cables, even with 18 kV power feed now available. This will continue to support higher capacity at lower cost-per-bit.
Interest in C+L Band Technology - We expect to see strong bid interest in C+L band technology in 2022, with selection of C+L band not later than 2023, as the next step beyond 24 fiber pair C-band only systems. The first – and only – C+L band system to date is the PLCN cable that terminates in Hong Kong, miring it in geopolitical turmoil and security concerns. Nevertheless, the technology itself is solid, providing a means to take another step in the direction of higher capacity and lower cost-per-bit. Low and stable fiber attenuation across the C- and L-bands, improvements to L-band erbium-doped fiber, and thinner fiber coatings (e.g., 200 mm) will enable cables to reach or exceed 1 Pb/s capacity.
Exploration of ULL Multi-Core Fiber - We also expect to see continued exploration of ULL multi-core fiber (MCF) in 2022, in preparation for the multi-Pb/s cables required to support future user experiences known as the metaverse, augmented reality, and ambient computing. MCF enables two or four cores in one strand of glass, turning a 24-fiber pair cable design into a 48- or 96-fiber pair cable. While MCF seems like an obvious way to increase capacity, its adoption will also add cost and complexity. Significant development is needed in all aspects of a submarine cable system to facilitate the adoption of this future technology, and forward-thinking companies may be wise to study it now.
ALEX VAXMONSKY DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOR GLOBAL PROVIDERS EQUINIX
ALEX VAXMONSKY DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOR GLOBAL PROVIDERS EQUINIX
As the Director of Global Networks at Equinix, Alex Vaxmonsky is uniquely positioned to provide insight into datacenters and the ecosystems of service providers, web content and applications. He has significant in driving strategic partnerships and managing infrastructure installations for subsea and satellite deployments at Equinix. With a deep background in both wireless and wireline environments, Alex’s team is focused on strategies that support all varieties of networking connectivity to accelerate the monetization of services at the edge.
Big Tech Companies Will Continue to Invest in Subsea Network Infrastructure, Particularly In Developing Markets - 2021 was one of the biggest years on record for subsea cable investments. As this investment boom continues in 2022, it will look different from the one we experienced several decades back during the dot-com era. Major content and application providers like Google and Meta will build on their advantages by investing in the infrastructure through which users access their content and applications. In particular, they’ll look to establish themselves in developing markets that feature huge user bases but have received little infrastructure investment before now. For example, Meta will use subsea cable investments to gain a foothold in markets like Indonesia, which is already the fourth-largest user base for Facebook (World Population Review, “Facebook Users by Country 2021”). By investing in digital infrastructure in places where governments and local telecoms may not have the resources to do so, Meta and other big tech companies will establish their presence in those markets for years to come. In most cases, they’ll start with subsea cables and grow from there.
The First Retail Satellite Communications Network Will Launch, But Challenges Will Remain - Satellite communications providers like SpaceX, OneWeb and Telesat are all working to prove the private space industry is more than just hype. The transport cost of launching a satellite—defined by the SWaP formula, which considers size, weight and power—has fallen quickly over the past few years. However, companies must also optimize the terminal cost of receiving signals back on Earth if they want to reach their intended market. A SpaceX antenna currently costs about $500; since satellite internet is primarily aimed at developing economies, this number needs to come down to about $300 before it really makes sense financially. SpaceX will launch a production retail communications satellite service by the end of 2022, but the challenges they’ll face around terminal costs and government regulations will ultimately lead them to decide their time and resources are better spent elsewhere. They will revert to a private network provider within the next three years, opening the door for OneWeb to emerge as the true winner in the retail communications space race.
The First Private Hybrid (RF/Optical) Communications Satellite Will Launch, Forcing Us to Rethink the Edge - In recent years, “edge” has become one of the most overused (and meaningless) words in enterprise networking. Thanks to new developments in space communications—such as the launch of NASA’s Laser Communications Relay Demonstration (LCRD) (NASA, “NASA’s Laser Communications Tech, Science Experiment Safely in Space.” December 2021) —we need a fundamentally new understanding of what and where the edge is. In the future, signals from space will be able to reach everywhere on Earth, which means we must also think of the edge as being everywhere. LCRD shows how converting RF signals to infrared lasers can help transport data 100 times faster and more securely. Within the next year, Commstar will build on the success of LCRD to become the first private company to launch an unprecedented hybrid (Optical & RF) communications satellite in cislunar orbit. There have been optical satellites launched before but none with converged platforms and absolutely none in cislunar. This new satellite will rely on an ecosystem of partners to help amplify laser signals and get them back to Earth; without amplification, the satellite simply wouldn’t be able to overcome the sheer distance (and latency) between the Earth and the Moon. In addition, ground stations will start to proliferate on Earth to enable an edge-anywhere approach.
CHRIS VAN ZINNICQ BERGMANN INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT MANAGER WFN STRATEGIES
CHRIS VAN ZINNICQ BERGMANN INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT MANAGER WFN STRATEGIES
Chris van Zinnicq Bergmann is an independent consultant and owner of VZB Consultancy B.V., based in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and Investment Development Manager of WFN Strategies. Chris has 25+ years of experience in the telecommunications industry and has had postings in Europe, the U.S. and Asia with companies such as BT, AT&T-Unisource, Global Crossing, Pacnet and Global Cloud Xchange. His main areas of expertise are the commercial and financial aspects of subsea cable projects (funding and co-investment arrangements), M&A and business development. Chris holds a master’s degree in Dutch law from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands and an MBA from Henley Management College in the UK.
A Return to More “Normal” Global Bandwidth Growth - In the first place, the year 2022 will hopefully bring us what 2021 in the end could not deliver: a return to more “normal” conditions in so many aspects of our lives. While the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has elevated the role and importance of the telecommunications industry, one thing that (according to TeleGeography) did return last year to its long term trend has been global internet bandwidth. After the momentous shifts in traffic patterns and volumes caused in 2020 by the consequences of the pandemic, global bandwidth growth in 2021 returned to its multi-year average growth trend of 29% (over the period 2017-2021). That said, this still represents an almost threefold increase of bandwidth since 2017 to a total of 786 Tbps and if growth stays on track this year, global internet bandwidth will exceed 1 Pbps for the first time.
Sustained Growth in Spending by Enterprises on Cloud Services - As business models and operations in all shapes and forms move more and more online, this will drive the underlying demand for enabling platforms and services in the cloud. According to Gartner, spending on public cloud services is expected to have grown by 23% in 2021 and based on a report from Cisco, cloud data centers will have carried 95% of total data center traffic globally in 2021.
Convergence of Virtualized Network Platforms and the Cloud - This trend is becoming evident in the implementation of 5G networks, particularly in the U.S. with examples such as AT&T outsourcing its platform to Azure and Dish building its platform from scratch on AWS. As this trend gets traction globally, another massive shift of data traffic into the cloud will continue to build in 2022 (an interesting question could be whether in the longer term this might lead to consolidation between cloud providers and telco’s (Microsoft acquiring AT&T…?) and how this would be viewed by regulators).
Combined Thrust of Increased Data Traffic from Content Streaming, Online Gaming, Edge Computing, AI, VR, IoT, Big Data, Etc. - As billions more devices get connected every year (the total count of all connected devices came to around 45 billion in 2021 according to some estimates), this will be another major driver of global bandwidth growth.
All these trends will drive significant further investment in data centers dispersed more and more across the globe (particularly in Asia and Africa). As strong connectivity between these data centers will be vital, this in turn will trigger further expansion of fiber infrastructure, from local networks to intercontinental subsea cable systems. Such infrastructure projects draw a lot of attention from the various players in the financial sector and many funds will be interested to invest in projects with solid business cases. So, for the subsea cable sector in particular, it should see in 2022 a continuation of the positive trends that have been evident over the past years. STF
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