ANALYTICS GLOBAL CAPACITY

A Snapshot Of Where We Are And Where We Are Headed

[Reprinted with permission from SubTel Forum 2022/2023 Submarine Industry Report]

The world continues to consume ever-increasing amounts of data, with bandwidth continuing to skyrocket. This demand – driven by a continued shift towards cloud services, an explosion of mobile device usage and mobile technology like 5G –provides numerous opportunities for the submarine fiber industry.

For the period 2018-2022 submarine fiber capacity on major routes has increased at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.3 percent, including upgrades and new system builds. (Figure 23) This is down as compared to the same analysis at this time last year, when the CAGR along major submarine cable routes was 18.2 percent.

As global demand continues to increase at a rapid pace, sustaining infrastructure growth will be challenging and potentially cause demand to exceed supply. To date, the industry has been able to keep up with demand— but it will be necessary to continue focusing on increasing capacity even further to meet the increasing demand. This is where technology like 400G wavelengths and high fiber pair count systems can have a positive impact.

Based on reported data and future capacity estimates, global capacity is estimated to increase up to 75.4 percent by the end of 2025. (Figure 24) Despite multiple systems planned over the next three years boasting design capacities of more than 200 terabits per second, overall capacity growth projections are less than they were a year ago when there was a 100 percent capacity increase planned for the following three years.

However, not all announced systems are far enough along in the development process to have decided things like fiber pair counts and design capacity, so expect to see an increase in possible bandwidth as these details are finalized and new systems are announced – especially as 400G wavelength technology and high fiber pair count systems become more prevalent. Additionally, the demand impact brought about by COVID-19 forced many people to re-evaluate their bandwidth needs and gear up for additional capacity to facilitate remote working environments.