REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW Presented by
sueadler
team
Dear Neighbor, It is a pleasure to share with you our annual review of the Mid-Town Direct Train Line residential real estate market and surrounding towns. With 2017 in the books, we have completed extensive research and analysis on the state of the market over the past year, as well as insight into the trends for 2018. We’ve broken down each town by price bracket to give you, the local homeowner, a true sense of the real estate market for your home. We hope you find this information useful, and that you will share it with your friends and family. We are happy to report that the trend for New Jersey and New York City economic growth continues. This is especially evident along the Mid-Town Direct Train Line, which includes the towns of Chatham, Madison, Maplewood, Millburn, New Providence, Short Hills, South Orange and Summit. This is due to the direct access that the Mid-Town Direct Train provides. Additionally with national unemployment at low of 4.1%, we continue to see more and more individuals seek the dream of homeownership, typically coming from Hudson County, or New York City. They are drawn to our area for the exceptional school districts, ease of commute, and the amazing lifestyle that our towns provide. The average price point in these towns dipped slightly by .35% or roughly $2,200 lower than 2016. We attribute this to the slowing luxury market which was soft for the better part of Q3 and Q4 of 2017. Luxury homes that were prepared for market, and priced for the shift, continued to sell at the pace we have seen in 2015 and 2016. One important trend is the the drastic increase in inventory which grew by 311 homes, which is the largest year over year growth we have seen in the past 7 years of creating this report. This is likely due to the strong market we saw in 2016, which enticed sellers to get into the market in 2017. With the rise in inventory we also saw a growth in sold homes by 161. This means 67% of all homes listed sold in 2017, compared to 69% in 2016. There are buyers looking for homes in all price points, so if you, or someone you know, has been considering selling, now is still a great time. On a personal note, The Sue Adler Team is very grateful for having been able to help 200 clients move forward in their lives in 2017, which was not only our best year ever, but got us attention from Barbara Corcoran, who publicly is endorsing us as the go-to agents in our Mid-Town Direct Towns! For the 4th year in a row, we were the #1 producing Real Estate Team in the state of New Jersey, and received over 50 five star reviews on Zillow, Trulia, Google, and Facebook in 2017. We helped Downsizers, Upsizers, Relocation Buyers, and Sellers, Urban to Suburban Buyers, Suburban to Urban Sellers, Tear Downs, Estate Sales, Builders, and Investors. We outperformed the market and sold 54 of our 90 listings at or above list price, with an average of 36 days on market. Our 2nd annual 100th Home Sale Charity Program grew by nearly 100% with over 30,000 people voting for their favorite charity. This year, Imagine A Center for Coping and Loss took the top spot. We were once again humbled to see the level of participation. Our entire team is proud to live, work, and serve in our beautiful communities, and we are extremely grateful for the opportunity to make a difference in your life. Yours to count on, The Sue Adler Team
Sue Adler Team’s Market Commentary of GSMLS Data AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
ORIGINAL LIST PRICE TO SALE PRICE
80
100% 98%
70
65
96%
56
40
46
44
45
46
96
94%
20
92%
93
93
2011
2012
98
97
99
99
2016
2017
90%
0 2016
2017
The average days on market for the Mid-Town Direct Train Line Towns increased again by 1 day from 2016, now up 2 days from 2015 lows. When looking at the sales data broken out by price point, it is evident that the high end market continued to slow, while the mid and entry level markets continued to perform at or better than years prior.
HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE Average Days on Market
Number of Sales
Average List to Sale
$1M or less
41
1,304
100.70%
$1M-$2M
44
471
98.26%
$2M or more
87
78
94.33%
3,000
2015
Inventory
Sales
2,000 896,198
1,500
850K
860,507 846,200
1,204
1,000
800K 500 785,274 768,112
2013
2014
2,527
898,437
1,688
887,263
2,440 1,590
$900K
2,313 1,652
2,500
SELLING PRICES
750K
2014
INVENTORY & SALES
1,288
Price Range
2013
We continued to measure original list price to sale price ratio, which gives us a snapshot of the health of the market based upon price reductions and listings that were withdrawn and then relisted with a new price. It is clear that 2017 continued to be a very strong year in real estate with a near perfect original list to sale price ratio. We look to see this trend continue in 2018, especially in the entry and mid level markets. The luxury markets continue to see an influx of inventory which is increasing the total months supply. This creates a buyers market, which will naturally lower the original list price to sale price. Please see page 6 for a more accurate depiction of your town.
1,853
2015
2,758
2014
2,447 1,692
2013
2012
2,210
2011
2,287
60
0 2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
700K 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Inventory levels grew in a big way in 2017, as did sales. Strong numbers in 2016 motivated many sellers to enter the market in 2017; much like in 2007 and 2008, we saw many sellers “testing” the market, to see if buyers would pay top dollar and entice them to move. Additionally with the uncertainty of the presidential election over, and the markets rallying, a new influx of buyers entered the marketplace which was further encouraging for sellers to get their home on the market. In 2017, 67.18% of homes listed sold, vs. 69.14% in 2016. Like the other areas of the market, we see the luxury market contributing to this drop.
2017
In 2017 we saw the first regression in average selling price since 2010. The good news is the slip is very slight, barely representing .35% less. Compared to the low in 2011, the average selling prices in the Mid-Town Direct Train Line Town markets are 13.1% higher representing stable year over year growth. While the majority of the market continues to see growth, the luxury markets have not bounced back as well, with the exception of new, newer, or totally renovated homes. Some of this has to do with demographics, as there are more downsizers than move up buyers in the market. Luxury homeowners who realize the softness in the market, and position their properties appropriately are still experiencing success, as when the buyers see the value, they are quick to act.
2013
2014
283
350
194
SALES BY TOWN 2015
2016
2017
300 250 200 150
Maplewood
Millburn
4 | THE SUE ADLER TEAM
Chatham Boro
Chatham Township
South Orange
Madison
Summit
162
160
177
127
165
294
314
284
260
149
177
164
178
246
241
268
255
221
183
159
209
188
179
136
135
117
98
81
319
311
329
322
364
349
322
296
0
324
50
300
100
New Providence
DATA SOuRCE: GSMLS
HIGHEST SALE PRICE
In 2018 we expect to see a rise in inventory with a continued high demand from buyers in the entry and mid-level range.
$4,175,000 55 STEWART ROAD, SHORT HILLS A SUE ADLER TEAM LISTING
Average Sale Price
2 bedrooms
Average Sale Price
3 bedrooms
$413,786 $632,377
Average Sale Price
2 bedrooms Average Sale Price
$888,629
399,479
$ 4 bedrooms Average Sale Price
5+ bedrooms
$1,287,628
.35%
JUNE 253 homes sold
2016-2017
42%
average decrease in sales price
DATA SOuRCE: GSMLS
saw the most closings
with
of all listings sold at or above list price 973.936.9129
www.sueadler.com | 5
2017 Home Sale Statistics MILLBURN & SHORT HILLS 2017 HOUSING OVERVIEW TOTAL LISTED: 456
TOTAL TRANSACTIONS: 320
AVERAGE DAyS ON MARKET: 49
AVERAGE LIST TO SALE PRICE: 93.63%
Arrows indicate difference from 2016.
SuE ADLER TEAM LIST TO SALE PRICE RATIO: 101.1%
Our Process: In order to give our local homeowners the most accurate data, we go through every home sold within the year to find out the number of times it has been listed and its original list price across all listings.
Total Listed: 133 2016: 134 2015: 75
Transactions: 121
$1,000,000 AND UNDER
2016: 113 2015: 67
Average Days on Market: 44 2016: 39 2015: 46
Original List to Sale Price: 99.64% 2016: 97.18% 2015: 97.3%
Sold At or Above List Price: 56 2016: 50
Total Listed: 123 2016: 95 2015: 126
Transactions: 99 2016: 115 2015: 100
$1,000,001 TO $1,500,000
Average Days on Market: 38 2016: 35 2015: 32
Original List to Sale Price: 95.86% 2016: 96.82% 2015: 100.7%
Sold At or Above List Price: 40 2016: 36
Total Listed: 101 2016: 94 2015: 94
Transactions: 59 2016: 59 2015: 66
$1,500,001 TO $2,000,000
Average Days on Market: 42 2016: 46 2015: 41
Original List to Sale Price: 93.04% 2016: 93.43% 2015: 96.8%
Sold At or Above List Price: 11 2016: 19
Total Listed: 99 2016: 90 2015: 143
Transactions: 41 2016: 47 2015: 78
$2,000,001 AND UP
Average Days on Market: 73 2016: 78 2015: 60
Original List to Sale Price: 85.97% 2016: 90.2% 2015: 94%
Sold At or Above List Price: 1 2016: 5 6 | THE SUE ADLER TEAM
973.936.9129
www.sueadler.com
The Sue Adler Team is excited to announce the start of our 3rd annual 100th Home Sale. We will be donating $20,000 to 6 local charities. This year, we would like to invite other local businesses to join us, so we can collectively make an even greater impact. If you are interested in nominating a local charity, participating as a local business, or learning how your home could be our 100th Home Sale of 2018 call 973.936.9129 or 100home@sueadler.com Visit www.SueAdler.com/100Home for more information about how to vote for your favorite charity!
Thinking about selling in 2018? Call 973.936.9129 and visit PriceMyNJHome.com for your complimentary consultation. Thinking of moving? Your team matters! Our in-house team of specialists help our sellers get top dollar by showcasing your home in the best light possible!
Professional Photography
Kitchen Makeover
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Staging
After
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973.936.9129
www.sueadler.com | 7
Keller Williams Realty Premier Properties
518 Milburn Avenue, Short Hills, NJ 07078 info@sueadler.com
973.936.9129 sueadler.com
488 Springfield Avenue, Summit, NJ 07901 | 973.376.0033 If your property is currently listed this is not intended as a solicitation.
Call 973.936.9129 for your comprehensive listing success strategy! To sell your home for the most money, you need a sharp agent with a marketing strategy that creates the most demand. Bottom line is, you need a partner willing to put their own money on the line for you. No one sells more real estate along NJ's Train Line Towns than the Sue Adler Team, selling a home every 72 hours. Sue invests a million dollars a year to marketing and servicing their clients. Partner with the team I trust. Visit sueadler.com and get your home sold!
— Barbara Corcoran, SHARK TANK
The Sue Adler Team Real Estate Redefined RESULTS:
#1
team in the state of New Jersey (Dollar Volume) 2013-Present
Average Days on Market of
36
CLIENT EXPERIENCE:
COMMUNITY GIVING:
OUT OF #15 TEAM 165,000 AGENTS in Keller Williams Worldwide (Dollar Volume)
HHHHH 150+
5 STAR REVIEWS from happy clients
% 60
of our 90 listings sold at or above list price
Endorsed by
Barbara Corcoran as the GO TO AGENTS in our Mid-Town Direct towns
• We consistently deliver above and beyond solution-based client service, with the focus on bringing your goals to fruition. • We empower our clients through consultation and education so you have the context to make informed decisions and move your life forward. • Our goal is to make a difference for you; our tagline is “Yours To Count On” and we live by this. • 100th home sale charity program. We donate $20,000 across 6 local charities. sueadler.com/100Home • We sponsor block parties to support the communities we serve. • The more people we help, the more we can give back to our communities.