Sun Valley 2019 Real Estate Market Report

REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

SUE ENGELMANN 208.720.0680

Table of Contents

A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT 2019 AND THIS MARKET REPORT • 2018 was the market’s best year since 2005 (pre-Recession), and so the fact that 2019’s numbers are within a few percentage points of 2018 is a very good thing. Overall, 2019 was another strong year for real estate in Sun Valley.

• The inventory of homes and condos/townhomes was down in 2019 (vacant land inventory was up). Buyer demand is strong, but there are simply not enough listings coming on to satisfy this demand.

• The highest-recorded Residential sale in Sun Valley history happened in 2019. This is a great sign for the luxury end of the market, and suggests that the higher end of our market—there are currently 15 homes listed at $8M or more—might become more active in the months to come.

• Vacant Land had the biggest increases in 2019—a 13% increase in sales, and a 10% increase in sold dollar volume over 2018. We expect this trend to continue, as there are several new developments that have just come onto the market (see below).

• The Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices brokerage launched in Sun Valley this year, and we are proud to be part of this new endeavor. Sun Valley Properties looks forward to being a market leader for years to come. We want to become your Forever Real Estate Brokerage.

LOCAL DEVELOPMENTS & PROJECTS The valley is booming, and there are a number of residential and land developments that are going to help keep the market moving along at a good pace for the foreseeable future. Here are a few developments and subdivisions that are worth your attention.

Residential Developments • The Residences at First & Sun Valley Two luxury penthouses in the Arts District • 1st & 7th 3 high-end units in Downtown Ketchum • The Onyx 8 luxury residences on Leadville

Land Developments • Colorado Gulch Preserve 7 parcels on Broadford in Hailey • Northridge IX 8 lots in Hailey’s hottest neighborhood • Croy Creek 19-site development in Croy Canyon • Quigley Farms First phase of 30 lots, with more to come

Sun Valley Real Estate Activity

HISTORICAL LOOK AT THE SUN VALLEY MARKET

Sun Valley has rebounded nicely from the Recession. Our slow and steady growth has been good for buyers, sellers, and for Sun Valley in general. Places like Jackson Hole, Aspen, and Park City are all experiencing some up-and-down fluctuations that make everyone nervous. Our market is showing a strong pattern of sustainable growth, in sales, volume, and home values. We have learned that stable, slowergrowth year over year is the best thing for buyers and sellers.

ABOUT THIS REPORT • • • •

All the figures in this report have been generated from the Sun Valley Board of Realtors site on January 1, 2020. The figures do not take into account off-market sales, undisclosed sales prices, FSBOs and other anomalies.

The report uses “Median Sales Price” instead of averages, as the Median is more accurately representative of a market’s real activity. The Median Sales Price means that there were an equal number of sales above and below that price.

The numbers in each table don’t always add up due to reporting idiosyncrasies, such as Fractional Sales, Garages, Co-listings, Leases and other ways to report a transaction.

Information is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

www.bhhssunvalley.com

Sun Valley Real Estate Market 2019 Entire Market (All property types, from Challis to Carey) 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

969

-5.7%

1027

959

784

Sold Volume

$640M

-3.1%

$660M

$627M

$404M

Med Sold Price

$385,000

5.5%

$365,000

$340,000

$290,500

Residential Home Sales, Entire Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

383

-12.8%

439

405

357

Sold Volume

$354M

-5.7%

$375M

$346M

$228M

Med Sold Price

$545,000

18.0%

$462,000

$457,500

$349,000

Condo/Townhome Sales, Entire Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

298

-6.6%

318

302

241

Sold Volume

$167M

-6.0%

$176M

$171M

$103M

Med Sold Price

$365,000

-5.2%

$385,000

$335,500

$290,000

Vacant Land Sales, Entire Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

175

12.9%

154

153

98

Sold Volume

$51M

9.5%

$47M

$48M

$37M

Med Sold Price

$152,500

27.1%

$120,000

$138,500

$124,000

HIGHEST SALE: $13,250,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 189 NEW LISTINGS: 1781 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 2788 www.bhhssunvalley.com

INSIGHT: 2019 was very comparable to 2018, which was the market’s best year since 2005. Sustained production is an ideal situation for our market, and as Sun Valley gets more discovered, we hope to see these numbers continue to rise.

Sun Valley Real Estate Market 2019 Resort Core (Ketchum, Warm Springs, Sun Valley, Elkhorn—All Property Types) 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

417

0.2%

416

401

299

Sold Volume

$385M

4.0%

$370M

$374M

$206M

Med Sold Price

$595,000

16.7%

$510,000

$592,000

$460,000

High-End Luxury Residential Sales ($3M+ Sold Price) 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

20

-4.8%

21

15

7

Sold Volume

$90M

0.3%

$89.5M

$67M

$32M

Med Sold Price

$3.98M

10.9%

$3.59M

$3.95M

$3.45M

Mid-Range Luxury Residential Sales ($1M-$2.99M Sold Price) 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

119

-4.0%

124

105

69

Sold Volume

$194M

-2.6%

$199M

$180M

$105M

Med Sold Price

$1.5M

0.0%

$1.5M

$1.65M

$1.4M

Farm & Ranch Sales, Entire Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

10

42.9%

7

7

11

Sold Volume

$12.3M

-6.6%

$13.2M

$22M

$12M

Med Sold Price

$1.02M

-43.1%

$1.8M

$720,000

$880,000

Commercial Sales, Entire Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

44

33.3%

33

51

47

Sold Volume

$31.9M

37.9%

$23.2M

$31M

$17M

Med Sold Price

$390,000

-11.4%

$440,000

$255,000

$201,500

North of Ketchum Market 2019 Entire North of Ketchum Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

11

-63.3

30

17

17

Sold Volume

$11.9M

-71.8%

$42M

$31M

$31.6M

Med Sold Price

$1.1M

12.2%

$1.M

$1.26M

$1.1M

North of Ketchum Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

8

-66.7%

24

11

11

Sold Volume

$10.6M

-68.7%

$33.8M

$18.7M

$19.8M

Med Sold Price

$1.2M

28.3%

$1M

$1.3M

$.95M

North of Ketchum Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

3

-40.0%

5

6

4

Sold Volume

$1.3M

-80.3%

$6.5M

$12.3M

$10.9M

Med Sold Price

$500,000

-64.1%

$1.4M

$1.9M

$2.4M

HIGHEST SALE: $2,200,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 245 NEW LISTINGS: 26 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 46 www.bhhssunvalley.com

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: North of Ketchum provides a study in the ups-and-downs of real estate. After a huge year in 2018, sales in the area dropped off considerably. As the smallest micro-market in the valley, it only takes a couple sales to change this.

Ketchum Market 2019 Entire Ketchum Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

173

-0.6%

174

174

132

Sold Volume

$172M

6.3%

$162M

$198M

$91.6M

Med Sold Price

$625,000

9.6%

$570,000

$625,000

$463,000

Ketchum Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

31

40.9%

22

33

20

Sold Volume

$66.5M

57.8%

$42M

$80.3M

$34M

Med Sold Price

$1.5M

15.4%

$1.3M

$1.5M

$1.05M

Ketchum Condo/Townhomes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

90

-10.9%

101

101

85

Sold Volume

$73M

-9.7%

$80M

$92M

$48M

Med Sold Price

$584,750

0.0%

$585,000

$584,00

$360,000

Ketchum Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

4

-33.3%

6

7

10

Sold Volume

$8.5M

-38.2%

$13.7M

$74.7M

$7.8M

Med Sold Price

$2.2M

-13.3%

$2.5M

$557,000

$758,500

HIGHEST SALE: $13,250,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 188 NEW LISTINGS: 284 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 463 www.bhhssunvalley.com

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: The Residential Homes market in Ketchum was the hottest market in the Resort Core in 2019. And with more and more developments being built, this may continue.

Warm Springs Market 2019 Entire Warm Springs Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

75

2.7%

73

70

44

Sold Volume

$53M

-18.8%

$65M

$49M

$35.6M

Med Sold Price

$585,000

25.8%

$465,000

$600,000

$464,250

Warm Springs Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

28

7.7%

26

26

15

Sold Volume

$33.5M

-23.8%

$44M

$25M

$22.6M

Med Sold Price

$1.05M

-29.9%

$1.5M

$777,500

$1M

Warm Springs Condo/Townhomes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

38

2.7%

37

40

26

Sold Volume

$15M

-15.5%

$18M

$21M

$11.6M

Med Sold Price

$307,500

-20.1%

$385,000

$397,250

$322,500

Warm Springs Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

5

60.0%

5

3

2

Sold Volume

$4.3M

50.3%

$2.9M

$978,000

$1.2M

Med Sold Price

$469,250

-2.4%

$481,000

$365,500

$598,000

HIGHEST SALE: $2,600,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 205 NEW LISTINGS: 105 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 187

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Warm Springs remains the most consistent market in the valley in terms of number of sales. The lower sold dollar volume means that the area’s luxury estate homes are not as active.

Sun Valley (Village) Market 2019 Entire Sun Valley Village Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

66

3.1%

64

62

45

Sold Volume

$84M

11.6%

$75M

$68M

$49.2M

Med Sold Price

$687,500

5.8%

$650,000

$737,500

$599,000

Sun Valley Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

17

21.4%

14

24

11

Sold Volume

$40M

10.5%

$37M

$45M

$19.3M

Med Sold Price

$2.4M

29.2%

$1.85M

$1.75M

$1.48M

Sun Valley Condo/Townhomes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

41

0.0%

41

32

29

Sold Volume

$32M

22.7%

$31M

$16M

$13.1M

Med Sold Price

$515,000

3.0%

$500,000

$415,000

$405,000

Sun Valley Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

3

-40.0%

5

6

3

Sold Volume

$3M

-54.6%

$6.6M

$6.6M

$4.4M

Med Sold Price

$995,000

-13.5%

$1.15M

$1M

$1.2M

HIGHEST SALE: $4,500,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 129 NEW LISTINGS: 112 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 156

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Another solid year in the Village, which has been very consistent since the renovation of the Sun Valley Lodge in 2016. The White Clouds and Diamond Back developments are currently the driving forces in Sun Valley.

Elkhorn Market 2019 Entire Elkhorn Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

104

-1.0%

105

95

78

Sold Volume

$77M

13.4%

$68M

$60M

$41.8M

Med Sold Price

$421,500

2.8%

$410,000

$415,000

$422,500

Elkhorn Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

27

28.6%

21

18

20

Sold Volume

$42M

41.8%

$30M

$27M

$19.9M

Med Sold Price

$1.4M

17.1%

$1.2M

$1.3M

$.9M

Elkhorn Condo/Townhomes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

75

-8.5%

82

69

57

Sold Volume

$34M

-10.1%

$38M

$29M

$20.6M

Med Sold Price

$360,000

9.4%

$329,000

$319,900

$287,000

Elkhorn Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

2

100%

1

3

0

Sold Volume

$814,700

158.6%

$315,000

$2.1

$0

Med Sold Price

$407,350

29.3%

$315,000

$630,000

$0

HIGHEST SALE: $4,800,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 145 NEW LISTINGS: 138 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 200

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Fun fact: there was more sold dollar volume for homes in Elkhorn in 2019 than in Sun Valley, something that rarely happens. It’s no longer a secret—estate homes are selling again in Elkhorn!

South of Ketchum Market 2019 Entire South of Ketchum Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

63

-7.4%

68

67

45

Sold Volume

$62M

-15.9%

$74M

$72M

$43M

Med Sold Price

$750,000

-6.8%

$805,000

$725,000

$650,000

South of Ketchum Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

39

-25.0%

52

44

33

Sold Volume

$52M

-24.0%

$69M

$64M

$38.6M

Med Sold Price

$900,000

-15.0%

$1.1M

$937,500

$832,500

South of Ketchum Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

23

64.3%

14

23

12

Sold Volume

$9.1M

115.5%

$4.2M

$8.2M

$4.4M

Med Sold Price

$300,000

34.8%

$222,500

$305,000

$225,000

HIGHEST SALE: $6,300,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 255 NEW LISTINGS: 191 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 329

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Vacant Land sales are way up South of Ketchum. Buyers are weighing the costs of of buying pre-existing homes vs building new product. Parcels here remain some of the valley’s best buys.

Hailey Market 2019 Entire Hailey Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

272

-8.4%

297

284

251

Sold Volume

$100M

-5.6%

$105M

$88M

$73.7M

Med Sold Price

$311,000

-1.1%

$314,500

$268,250

$232,500

Hailey Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

138

-18.3%

169

139

137

Sold Volume

$65M

-16.6%

$78M

$59M

$49.4M

Med Sold Price

$437,500

12.2%

$390,000

$357,000

$330,000

Hailey Condo/Townhomes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

55

1.9%

54

58

40

Sold Volume

$13.5M

7.9%

$12.5M

$13.3M

$7.9M

Med Sold Price

$240,000

6.7%

$225,000

$220,000

$194,000

Hailey Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

51

34.2%

38

45

36

Sold Volume

$11M

83.9%

$5.9M

$7.2M

$6M

Med Sold Price

$149,900

21.6%

$123,250

$137,000

$120,000

HIGHEST SALE: $1,985,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 150 NEW LISTINGS: 469 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 710

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: The Hailey market had to take a breather after a four-year run of growth. Expect Vacant Land sales to continue to rise as new developments and high home prices tempt buyers and spec builders to build on raw land.

Bellevue Market 2019 Entire Bellevue Market (including Picabo, Gannett, and beyond) 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

116

13.7%

102

97

78

Sold Volume

$38M

20.5%

$31.7M

$39.3M

$22.4M

Med Sold Price

$233,500

-7.5%

$252,500

$230,000

$217,500

Bellevue Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

58

-6.5%

62

65

55

Sold Volume

$25.6M

8.2%

$23.7M

$21.6M

$16.9M

Med Sold Price

$354,500

19.6%

$296,500

$280,000

$225,000

Bellevue Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

47

62.1%

29

25

10

Sold Volume

$7.6M

156.6%

$3M

$2.6M

$1.3M

Med Sold Price

$89,500

-9.6%

$99,000

$105,000

$117,000

HIGHEST SALE: $2,350,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 242 NEW LISTINGS: 237 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 367

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: The smart money is heading south to Bellevue right now. Homes in town are still affordable, but climbing steadily every year. And look at how sales of Vacant Land have grown since 2016—they have almost quintupled.

Stanley Basin & Beyond Market 2019 Entire Stanley & Beyond Market (Challis, Mackay, Sawtooth City, Stanley) 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

38

-22.4%

49

43

30

Sold Volume

$20.7M

23.1%

$16.8M

$8.3M

$10.7M

Med Sold Price

$155,750

-37.7%

$250,000

$114,500

$184,150

Stanley & Beyond Residential Homes Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

13

-45.8%

24

22

21

Sold Volume

$10.4M

-14.6%

$12.2M

$5.3M

$4M

Med Sold Price

$299,000

-27.1%

$410,000

$132,500

$180,000

Stanley & Beyond Vacant Land Market 2019

% Chg v 2018

2018

2017

2016

Sales

19

-9.5%

21

17

5

Sold Volume

$2.5M

6.5%

$2.3M

$1.4M

$.6M

Med Sold Price

$100,000

48.1%

$67,500

$54,075

$61,000

HIGHEST SALE: $4,200,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 392 NEW LISTINGS: 58 ACTIVE DURING THE YEAR: 103

MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Home sales fell by almost 50%, and there is a definite shortage of inventory in the Sawtooth Basin. Stanley is busier and busier every year, as more people are looking for their summer/winter getaway.

2020 Vision—Looking Ahead WHAT ANAYLYSTS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT THE YEAR AHEAD MORTGAGE RATES Most economists believe that rates will continue to stay in the 3.6%-3.9% range for 2020.

These historically low rates will make homes more affordable despite rising prices. (Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association)

HOUSING PRICES Prices will continue to rise nationwide, perhaps as much as 5%-6%, compared to the 3.5% rise in 2019. Lack of inventory and fewer new homes are the main reasons for this. Lowerend and starter home prices will be most affected. And several metro areas are seeing declines. (CoreLogic, Redfin, Arch Mortgage)

INVENTORY This is the buzzword in real estate, as in “lack of.” Home-owners are staying in their homes longer than ever. New home starts are at historic lows. Demand is high across the nation, but homeowners are being very cautious. (Redfin)

IDAHO Boise is predicted to be the top housing market in the country in 2020. In conjunction with this, home prices in Boise rose more (as a percentage) than any other of the top 100 cities in America. (Realtor.com)

SUN VALLEY Sun Valley’s inventory of residential homes is down, and this will cause prices to rise in 2020.

The valley is increasingly busy and buyer demand is strong; as a result, homeowners who put their homes on the market will see increased activity and interest in their homes.

Sun Valley should benefit from the fast-growing Boise Market. As more affluent buyers purchase homes in Boise, they will be looking for a nearby getaway, and Sun Valley should be at the top of that list. Our sister company is Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Silverhawk Realty in Boise/Caldwell, meaning that our brokerage is uniquely positioned to work with Boise buyers.

2020 is going to be a remarkable year. Working under the banner of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Sun Valley Properties, I am always ready to help you with any of your real estate needs.

“HomeServices will be around tomorrow, next week, next month, and a century from now. If you're making an investment in what could be the most important asset you'll ever have, you should want to know that if you have any questions about anything, that you don't find a sign on the door that says ‘out of business’. That will never happen with HomeServices.”

– Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

SUE ENGELMANN 208.720.0680 www.sueengelmann.com sue@sueengelmann.com 360 East Ave N, Ketchum, ID

© 2019 BHH Affiliates, LLC. An independently owned and operated franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc ®. Equal Housing Opportunity.