FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR ELECTRIFICATION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT Sujit Vishal G| PG191012
Guided by: Prof. Shivanand Swamy and Mr. Khelan Modi
Preface
Acknowledgement
This portfolio is talking about the electrification of Public Transport in the city of Chennai. To make a sustainable transportation model we must understand the city characteristics, the travel pattern and the mode share. The other important thing is the ridership trends of the city, are the people willing to travel in Public Transport or willingness to shift to the Public Transport. This document briefs about the demand, capital cost, operational cost, infrastructure development and the phasing of the project. The demand of the new sustainable mode is measures which helps in understand the increasing/decrease the ridership of the Public Transport based on the proposed modes. Based on the demand the number of fleet size for the satisfy the ridership is calculated. Different business scenarios are considered to understand the financial and economic viability of the business model. In addition, this document also talks about the environmental benefits like reduction in particulate matter on converting from the existing to the proposed mode, in doing so the government can save money on the treatment cost.
I would sincerely like to thank our studio guide, Prof. HM Shivanandswamy, Mr. Khelan Modi, Dr. Denis Jose and our academic associate, Ms. Madhura Kawadkar and Mr. Ramit Raunak for guiding and assisting me throughout the studio, for their critical inputs and comments which have led to my learning in the studio. I would like to express my gratitude towards my family and friends for always supporting and assisting me. Lastly, I would thank my fellow batch-mates, for their support and faith.
Disclaimer The Information presented in the portfolio has been studied as a part of “Transportation Project Studio� Faculty of Urban Transport Systems, CEPT University. Any Omissions and errors are deeply regretted
Content
1 2 3 4 5 6
Studio Objective and EV Overview Objective| National and State Policy| Methodology| Role of Government and STU’s, EV Ecosystem
Chennai City and Transport Characteristics About the City| Population| Mode Share| Present and Future Transport Characteristics
Total Cost of Ownership Capital Cost| Operational Cost| Escalation of the TCO
Demand Analysis Willingness to Shift| Ridership Estimate| Fleet Estimation|
Feasibility Analysis Fleet Procurement| Financial Analysis| Economic Analysis
Key Learnings Key Takeaways
Section 1 Studio Objective and EV Overview Objective| National and State Policy| Methodology| Role of Government and STU’s, EV Ecosystem
Objective
Methodology
The objective of this study is to understand, analyze and assess the feasibility of electric mobility in reshaping the current scenario of Public Transport System with better operational efficiency making it financially viable, economically and environmentally sustainable. Therefore, looking into the several aspects with respect to demand and supply for electrification of Public Transport is conducted
National Policy The Nation Electric Mobility Mission aims to 100% electrification of Public Transport. To mobilized National Mission on Electric Mobility on the fast track, Department of Heavy Industry formulated a scheme named FAME – India (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electrical Vehicles in India). Rs. 3545 budgetary allocation as a demand incentives to support the adoption of 7090 electric buses till 2022 To eliminate the heavy investment risk for STUs and Transport Undertakings to purchase electric buses, FAME II scheme has mandate Gross Cost Contract operating model to avail the subsidy.
State Policy 12 states have formulated their state policy with their objective of adopting electrical mobility in terms of manufacturing of different segment of vehicles, to undertake pilot projects, to grow the sale of electric vehicle and to establish state of the art charging facilities and incentives to support the potential growth of electric vehicle market.
Role of Government and Transport Undertakings State Govt./ ULB
STU Source: FAME, STU Document
1. Set targets and obligation for EV adoption in public transport. 2. Provide fiscal and non incentive and budgetary allocation. 3. Amendment of various other policies and regulatory framework to support EV adoption. 4. Support through Development Authority, Smart City Corporation or Municipal funds 1. Prepare detailed project implantation plan. Including fleet procurement and operational mechanism. 2. Selection of appropriate and suitable vehicle, battery and charging technology.
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Studio Objective and EV Overview EV Ecosystem
In India, E- buses accounts only nearly 0.66% making it the lowest segment by number in overall vehicle composition. However, with focus and priority for mass transit vehicles the FAME II scheme has allocated total of Rs. 3545 budgetary allocation as a demand incentives to support the adoption of 7090 electric buses till 2022.
EV Manufacturers
Demand In order to promote clean mobility in public transportation Department of Heavy Industry has granted the approval of 5,595 electric buses to be deployed in 64 cities under FAME II program. By 2025 the electric bus market in India is foreseen to reach 7000 units. A total of 86 proposals from 26 states and union territories for the deployment of off 14,988 buses.
55.06%
25.98%
Supply
7.02%
BYD Olectra
TATA Motors
Ashok Leyland
7.02%
PMI Foton
4.21% JMB Solaris
0.70% Volvo
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
BYD announced its plan to increase the production up to 5000 vehicles per year. The government has granted approval for 5095 electric buses in 64 cities. 400 electric buses for intercity operation and 100 buses for last mile connectivity to DMRC
Section 2 Chennai City and Transport Characteristics About the City| Population| Mode Share| Present and Future Transport Characteristics
Chennai
Economy
Capital City of Tamil Nadu, located in the eastern coast of India. One of the 6 metropolitan cities in the country
426 km2
1189 km2
Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA)
Chennai Metropolitan Development Area (CMDA)
Mode Share
Rs. 5659
4th
GDP Chennai
GDP contributor in India
14%
40%
IT Sector in India
Automobile Industry in India
6% 25%
23%
3%
Chennai
7%
350
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
300 250 200 150
100 50
7%
30% Walk
No of Trips (Lakhs)
Population (Lakhs)
The population of Chennai is growing over the years at a growth rate of 4.5% per annum over the last decade. With the current trend the population is predicted to be 173 lakhs by the end of 2030. This will have an overall impact on the demand of transportation of the city and will be requiring a proper managing of the travel pattern of the city Bicycle
Auto-Rickshaw
Car/Van
2 Wheelers
Bus
350 Train 300
2 Wheeler
Bicycle
Bus
IPT
Train
Car
0 2008
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Walk
Year Population No of Trips Population of Chennai
Source: FAME, STU Document
No of Trips
107.8 Lakhs
157 Lakhs
1.62
Population of Chennai (2020)
No of Trips in Chennai (2018)
Per Capita Trip Rate (2018)
181.8 Lakhs
300 Lakhs
4.95%
Projected Population of Chennai (2031)
No of Trips in Chennai (2031)
Growth Rate of Chennai (Per Annum)
Source: CMP Chennai, MTC
As of 2018, the city is predominently dependent on the 2-wheeler and public Transport. Bicycles and Train are the least prefered mode in the city
53% Mode Share of Public Transport and 2 wheelers (2018)
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Chennai City and Transport Characteristics Bus Procurement
Metropolitan Transport Corporation is a Public Transport Authority of Chennai. The authority was established in 1970, to cater the city people and to make the transport easy. The ridership of MTC has fluctuated over the years and so is the fleet size. Due to the reduction in ridership per day the fleet size has also reduced over the years and currently there are 3679 bus as of 2019. The busses used in the fleet by MTC is Standard TATA bus and Mini TATA bus. The transport authority has 33 Depots with an area of 0.42 km2. The fleets are operated in 695 routes of which 57 are for mini bus fleets.
To prepare the replacement schedule of the bus in the future, the average age of the fleet and the bus procurement over the years is to be studied. The average age if the MTC fleet in 2020 is 7.38. The table shows that the bus replacement is required in the early 2020 because of the heavy procurement that happened in 2010 to 2015.
60
4000
55 50
3000
45 2000
40
1000 800 No of Bus
5000
Ridership (Lakhs)
Fleet Size (Lakhs)
Metropolitan Transport Corporation (MTC)
600 400
1000
35
200
0
30
0
2010
2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2010
Year
Bus Average fleet Head
Ridership
Ridership per day
Regions of Metropolitan Transport Corporation (MTC) The 33 depots are divided into 9 regions and each depot will fall into one of the mentioned regions. Each region heads has 3 to 5 depots as sub region. The regional office is responsible of maintaining the bus operations in the sub regions. The 9 regions of the MTC is given below: 1. Adyar Region 2. Thiruvanmiyur Region 3. T.Nagar Region 4. Chrompet Region 5. Vadapalani Region
6. Ayanavaram Region 7. Annanagar Region 8. Tondiarpet-1 Region 9. Madhavaram Region
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Bus
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015 Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fleet Strength in Depot The Fleet Strength is different in each depot. The dependency of the fleet strengthis based on the demand and the area of the depots
250 No of Bus
200 150
100 50
Fleet Strength
PADIYANALLUR
MKB NAGAR
MADHAVARAM
VYASARPADI
BASIN BRIDGE
ENNORE
THIRUVOTTIYUR
TONDIARPET-II
TONDIARPET-1
AVADI
AMBATHUR
ANNANAGAR
PERAMBUR
AYANAVARAM
CENTRAL DEPOT
POONAMALLEE
VADAPALANI
IYYAPPANTHANGAL
CHROMPET-II
TAMBARAM
CHROMPET
KUNDRATHUR
K.K.NAGAR
SAIDAPET
T.NAGAR
PERUMBAKKAM
ALANDUR
KANNAGI NAGAR
THIRUVANMIYUR
ADAMBAKKAM
BESANT NAGAR
MANDAVELI
ADYAR
0
Depots
3674
695
300
33
8.67
84.3%
Bus Fleet (2018)
No of Routes
Average kms /day (Standard bus)
No of Bus depots
Average Age of the bus (2019)
Occupancy Ratio
211
57
200
22956
6.2
Mini Bus (2018)
No of Mini Bus Routes
Average kms /day (Mini bus)
Staff Strength (2019)
Bus Staff Ratio
Source: CMP Chennai, MTC
0.42 km2
Rs. 1304
Rs. 1804
Rs. 49967
Area of Depot
Revenue (Crores)
Operation Cost (Crores)
Net Loss (Crores)
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Chennai City and Transport Characteristics Projected Mode Share of Chennai Due to the Increase in the preference of 2-wheeler mode in the city and the decrease in the ridership of PT over a period of time, the mode share of 2 wheelers at the end of 2031 is expected to be 41%.
300
No of Trips (Lakhs)
250
200 150 100 50
0 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
6%
6%
6%
6%
Year
100%
6%
6%
6%
90%
Walk
Bicycle
6%
6%
Auto-Rickshaw
6%
Car/Van
6%
2 Wheelers
6%
Bus
6%
Train
6%
23%
21%
20%
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
13%
12%
11%
11%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
39%
40%
41%
41%
30%
40%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
30%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
7% 3%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
80%
41%
11%
Mode Share of 2 wheelers (2031)
Mode Share of PT (2031)
Mode Share
70% 60%
2 Wheeler
Bicycle
Bus
IPT
Train
Car
50%
20% 10%
Walk
0% 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Year Walk
Bicycle
Auto-Rickshaw
Car/Van
2 Wheelers
Bus
Train
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
2030
2031
Section 3 Total Cost Of Ownership Capital Cost| Operational Cost| Escalation of the TCO
Total Cost of Ownership Total Cost of Ownership will provide an understanding various cost components associated with entire lifecycle of bus. Considering Gross Cost Contract modal as focal point of the entire feasibility study, the Total Cost of Contract-ship was also computed based on the results received from the total cost of ownership in order to apply them for the procurement of fleet based on Gross Cost Contract.
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)= Capex + Opex 400
900
350
800 700
250 200
150
Cost (Rs. Lakhs)
Cost (Rs. Lakhs)
300
Opex Opex
100
500 400
Opex Opex
300 200
Capex
50 0
600
100
Capex
0
Diesel Mini Bus
Fuelling/Charnging Unit
Diesel Standard Bus
Replacement Cost
Residual Value
Fuel Cost
Repair and maintenance cost
Staff cost
MV, Passanger Tax
Fuel/Charging Units
Repair and Maintanance
Capex
E Mini Bus
Total Purchase Cost
Total Purchase Cost
Capex
Replacement Cost
Staff Cost
MV, Passenger Tax
E Standard Bus
Total Purchase Cost
Fuelling/Charnging Unit
Replacement Cost
Residual Value
Fuel Cost
Repair and maintenance cost
Residual Value
Staff cost
Insurance
Fuel Cost
MV, Passanger Tax
Insurance
Insurance
306
372
695
831
TCO of Mini Diesel (Rs. Lakhs)
TCO of Mini Electric (Rs. Lakhs)
TCO of Standard Diesel (Rs. Lakhs)
TCO of Standard Electric (Rs. Lakhs)
Source: MTC, STU Documents
10%
3%
1%
Depreciation Value of bus
Insurance against the Residual Value of the bus
Passenger Tax against the Residual Value of the bus
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Total Cost of Ownership
0
Diesel Mini Bus
Cost (Rs.Lakhs)
180
E Mini Bus
Total Purchase Cost
Fuelling/Charnging Unit
150
Replacement Cost
Residual Value
Fuel Cost
Repair and maintenance cost
120
Staff cost
MV, Passanger Tax
12 10 8
Insurance
90
6
60
4
30
2
0
0 Capex (Purchase Cost + Depot Cost )
Opex
FY 0
FY 1
Opex
Opex
FY 2
FY 3
Opex
Opex + Battery Replacement Cost
Opex
FY 5
FY 6
FY 4
Opex
Opex
FY 7
Opex
FY 8
FY 9
Annual kms (Lakhs)
Expense on a bus during the Lifetime
Opex + Residual Value
E Mini Bus
Diesel Standard Bus
E Standard Bus
Kms mini
Standard Diesel Mini Electric Standard Electric Annual kms Mini
FY 10
Annual Kms Standard
Year Diesel Mini Bus
Mini Diesel
Kms Standard
Total Cost of Ownership per km The TCO of the bus will also fluctuate in the future, with the consideration of the Whole Sale price index of the Energy, R&M and the man power cost in the Future. Due to the escalation in the price the TCO in the future will also be higher.
Cost per km (Rs.)
80 60
Indexation Electricity Diesel Man Power R&M Inflation
Escalation 1% 12% 6% 1.5% 9%
40 20 0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Mini Diesel
Standard Diesel
Mini Electric
Standard Electric
2031
Year Mini Cost./ km Diesel
45
Mini Cost./ km Electric
Standard Cost./ km Diesel
47
Standard Cost./ km Electric
60
59
Cost Per km Mini Diesel (Rs.) (2020)
Cost Per km Mini Electric (Rs.) (2020)
Cost Per km Mini Diesel (Rs.) (2031)
Cost Per km Mini Electric (Rs.) (2031)
52
53
77
66
Cost Per km Standard Diesel (Rs.) (2020)
Cost Per km Standard Electric (Rs.) (2020)
Cost Per km Standard Diesel (Rs.) (2031)
Cost Per km Standard Electric (Rs.) (2031)
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Section 4 Demand Analysis Willingness to Shift| Ridership Estimate| Fleet Estimation|
Demand Analysis With the Current population and the number of trips occurring per day it is expected that, there is a transformation of trend towards 2 wheelers and the ridership of the Public Transport bus is also constantly decreasing over the years. To make a shift from the private modes and IPTs and also to promote the E-bus in the city, user surveys are made in order to identify the Choice of shift people will make towards the public transport when there is seen an improvement in Walk time, Wait Time and Comfort Level. A discrete choice model was done to analyse the shift from different modes to Public Transport.
Demand Created Due to Improvement in Public Transport
Mode
Walk Time
Wait Time
Comfort
2Wheeler
5 min
3 min
Air Conditioned
4 Wheeler IPT
5min 5 min
3 min 3 min
Air Conditioned Air Conditioned
70 60 Ridership (Lakhs)
Showcard were prepared and the improvement in the system were shown to identify the willingness of the people to shift from private and IPT modes to the Public Transport. The improvement in the system include less walkability, improving the headway and the comfort levels
50 40 30 20 10 0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029 2030
2031
Year
BAU Scenario BAU
Proposed Scenario
Proposed Scenario
Fleet Size Fleet Size of the PT system is based on the demand that is created, the occupancy of the fleet, fleet Utilisation and the bus capacity. The share of the mini bus is increased to improve the feeder system
8000 7000 Fleet Size
6000
20%
7%
Expected Shift from 2-Wheelers
Expected Shift from 4-Wheelers
40%
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
Expected Shift from 0 2027 2028 2029 2020 2030 2021 2031 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 IPT Year BAU
Source: MTC, Primary Surveys
Proposed Scenario
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Demand Analysis Proposed Mode Share 100%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
29%
28%
27%
26%
25%
24%
24%
23%
22%
22%
21%
21%
27%
28%
29%
29%
30%
31%
32%
32%
33%
34%
34%
35%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
7% 4% 3%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
90%
80%
Mode Share
70%
60% 50%
40% 30%
20% 10%
2 Wheeler
Bicycle
Bus
IPT
Train
Car
Walk
0% Year
155
Walk
Surveys Conducted
65 Auto-Rickshaw
Bicycle
Car/Van
2-Wheeler Surveys
2 Wheelers
21
Bus
69
94%
6%
IPT Surveys
Share of Standard Bus 2020
Share of Mini Bus 2020
Train
4-Wheeler Surveys
81%
95%
7832
90%
10%
Fleet Utilisation BAU
Fleet Utilisation Proposed
Proposed Scenario Standard Bus Required 2031
Proposed Share of Standard Bus
Proposed Share of Mini Bus
3200
204
7049
783
BAU Standard Bus Required 2031
BAU Mini Bus Required 2031
Proposed Standard Bus Required 2031
Proposed Mini Bus Required 2031
21%
35
63
Mode Share of PT 2031
Ridership of PT (Lakhs) 2018
Ridership of PT (Lakhs) 2031
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Section 5 Feasibility Analysis Fleet Procurement| Financial Analysis| Economic Analysis
No of Bus
Fleet Procurement 0% Electrification (BAU Scenario) 1400
No of Bus
1200
400 200
1000
800
0
600
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Year
400
200 0 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
The fleet Procurement Plan is based on the number of bus required to be added to the fleet year inYear.Some Factor that impacts the fleet procurement is the scrapping of the busses.
Year Mini Bus Procured
Standard Bus Procured
Fleet Procurement 50% Electrification 1400
In the BAUScenario, the number of bus procured is less compared to the proposed scenarios because of the less demand in the system. Additional busses will be a dead investment because of the lack of demand.
1200 No of Bus
1000 800
600 400 200
0 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Year
Fleet Procurement 100% Electrification Standard Diesel Bus Procured Standard Electric Bus Procured
Mini Diesel Bus Procured
Mini Electric Bus Procured
In the 100% Electrification Scenario, the number of bus procured is same as the 50% Electrification Scenario. There is a requirement of high procurement of the electric bus in the beginning years considering the current age of the fleet and the requirement for replacement of the bus into the system. In this scenario, there is seen no procurement of diesel bus in any of the years. At the end of 2031, the entire fleet will be electrified
1400 1200 1000 No of Bus
In the 50% Electrification Scenario, the number of bus procured higher compared to the BAU Scenario. Since the TCO of the Electric bus are proportionally lesser in the future due to the escalation of diesel price, the procurement of the electric bus in this scenario is starting from 2023. At the end of 2031, the proportion of the diesel and electric bus in the fleet will be 50%
800 600 400 200
Mini Diesel
Standard Diesel
Mini Electric
Standard Electric
0 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Year Standard Electric Bus Procured
2029
2030
2031
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Mini Electric Bus Procured
Feasibility Analysis Estimated Fleet in Depots 0% Electrification (BAU Scenario) 400 300 200
Depots
PADIYANALLUR
MKB NAGAR
MADHAVARAM
VYASARPADI
BASIN BRIDGE
ENNORE
THIRUVOTTIYUR
TONDIARPET-II
TONDIARPET-1
AVADI
AMBATHUR
ANNANAGAR
PERAMBUR
AYANAVARAM
CENTRAL DEPOT
POONAMALLEE
VADAPALANI
IYYAPPANTHANGAL
CHROMPET-II
CENTRAL DEPOT
0
AYANAVARAM ADYAR PERAMBUR MANDAVELI ANNANAGAR BESANT NAGAR AMBATHUR ADAMBAKKAM AVADI THIRUVANMIYUR TONDIARPET-1 KANNAGI NAGAR TONDIARPET-II ALANDUR THIRUVOTTIYUR PERUMBAKKAM ENNORE T.NAGAR BASIN BRIDGE SAIDAPET VYASARPADI K.K.NAGAR MADHAVARAM KUNDRATHUR MKB NAGAR CHROMPET PADIYANALLUR TAMBARAM
100
POONAMALLEE
VADAPALANI
Depot
Standard Bus
Mini Bus
Estimated Fleet in Depots 100% Electrification 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
400 300 200
PADIYANALLUR
MKB NAGAR
MADHAVARAM
VYASARPADI
BASIN BRIDGE
ENNORE
THIRUVOTTIYUR
TONDIARPET-II
TONDIARPET-1
AVADI
PERAMBUR
AYANAVARAM
CENTRAL DEPOT
POONAMALLEE
IYYAPPANTHANGAL
CHROMPET-II
TAMBARAM
CHROMPET
KUNDRATHUR
K.K.NAGAR
SAIDAPET
T.NAGAR
PERUMBAKKAM
ALANDUR
KANNAGI NAGAR
THIRUVANMIYUR
ADAMBAKKAM
BESANT NAGAR
MANDAVELI
ADYAR
0
AMBATHUR
100 ANNANAGAR
No of Bus
500
VADAPALANI
IYYAPPANTHANGAL
No of Bus
500
Depots
Standard Bus
Mini Bus
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Chargers
The fleet estimations and the procurement schedule are made based on the demand. The infrastructure development of chargers is to be set in place after that based on the scenarios. Since there are four Regions in MTC, the fleet estimate is calculated phase wise and the charging infrastructure is developed. Fleet procurement in Depots and Development of Charging Infrastructure. In the BAU Scenario, the fleet size estimated at the end of 2031 is 3903 bus. These busses need no charging infrastructure in the fleet as they are all diesel busses and will be no requirement for augmentation of the fleet size as well because of the demand. The 50% Electrification scenario has a total of 7049 buses in the fleet by 2031, of which 50% are electrified fleets. To satisfy the demand caused by the electrified busses, the charging infrastructure is to be provided. Since there is a mixture of both diesel and electric busses in the fleet, the proposed depots where chargers are available will only cater the electric buses and the remaining depots will be catering the diesel buses and the infrastructure for the same will be carried. The 100% Electrification scenario has a total of 7049 buses in the fleet by 2031, of which all busses are electrified. To satisfy the demand caused by the electrified busses, the charging infrastructure is to be provided in all the depots.
65
7000
1
3%
10%
60
6000
55
Revenue per pax kms Rs.
Escalation per pax revenue
Non-Fare Box Revenue
-11%
-9%
6%
FIRR BAU Scenario
FIRR 50% Electrification
FIRR 100% Electrification
5000
50
4000
45
3000 2000
40
1000
35
0
30
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 Operation Cost
Financial Analysis 50% Electrification Year
Cost (Rs. Crores)
eration Cost
8000
Revenue
2025 2026 Year 8000
Revenue
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ridership (Lakhs)
8000
2031
Ridership
Ridership
65
7000
60
6000
55
5000
50
4000
45
3000 2000
40
1000
35
0
30 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ridership (Lakhs)
Cost (Rs. Crores)
Financial Analysis 0% Electrification (BAU Scenario)
2031
Cost (Rs. Crores)
Financial Analysis 100% Electrification
Ridership
8000
65
7000
60
6000
55
5000
50
4000
45
3000 2000
40
1000
35
0
30 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Year Operation Cost
Revenue
Ridership
2028
2029
2030
2031
Ridership (Lakhs)
Revenue
In the BAUScenario. the ridership is declining and hence the system in experiencing a huge loss and there is a requirement of improvement in the existing system. In 50% Electrification Scenario, due to the mixture of both the electric and diesel bus in the fleet the profit generated is also changing. Due to the EPISODE where the diesel prices are higher in the future than the electric price, henceforth the FIRR for this scenario is better compared to BAU Scenario, where the FIRR is -9%
Year Operation Cost
Financial Model is the part of the outcome of our Total expenditure against the total outcome of the project. In a financial model we have to analyse the capital expense we have to incorporate year upon year due to the expenditure of capital cost of fleet procurements, operation and maintenance. The financial model also includes the revenue generated for the same and thereby also helping us to analyse if the particular system is robust or not.
In 100% Electrification Scenario, due to the mixture of both the electric and diesel bus in the fleet the profit generated is also changing. Over a period of time, the number of diesel buses in the fleet is reducing and will be zero by 2031. Due to the WPi where the diesel prices are higher in the future than the electric price, henceforth the FIRR for this scenario is better compared to 50% Electrification Scenario, where the FIRR is -9% Operation Cost
Revenue
Ridership per day
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Feasibility Analysis
8000
6000
7000
5500
6000
5000
5000
4500
4000
4000
3000
3500
2000
3000
1000
2500
0
2000 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Vehicle Operation Cost Savings
Operation Cost (Rs. Crores)
Savings Cost (Rs. Crores)
Economic Analysis
Infrastructure Savings Emission Savings Operation Cost 50% Electrification Operation Cost 100% Electrification
2031
Year VOC
Infrastructure
Emission Savings
Operation Cost 50
Operation Cost 100
With the consideration of the life time running of the mini and standard bus, the conversion of the diesel buses to electric can save a lot of treat-ment cost as well. It is estimated that the mini bus can save a total of Rs. 10.6 Lakhs during its entire life run and a standard bus can save a total of Rs. 14.6 Lakhs during its entire life run. When the same is carried to the larger fleet size the cost benefits will be huge and the savings the govern-ment will be able to use the funds to deviate to other benefits life subsi-dies for the electric bus, etc. To understand the amount of kms saved on diesel we can calculate the kilometers that the public transport is covering in Electric Vehicles year upon year and thereby we can understand the volume of pollutants saved due to conversion after which the treatment cost is calculated. The treatment cost is done based on the emissions that are caused by the different modes. The government has to have additional expense on per gram of emissions happening this Vehicle cost will be an additional benefit as the conversion to electric bus can save the cost that is deviated for treatment According to the IRC the Vehicle Operation Cost includes the cost saved in operation of different modes. These saved operations included the cost saved on fuel lubricants etc. The VOC savings per km is calculated based on the IRC Standards as given in the Manual on Economic Evaluation of Highway Project in India where the Savings are calculated.
-14%
-2774
-2629
21735
24509
EIRR 50% Electrification
NPV 12% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)
NPV 14% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)
PV Benifits 50% Electrification (Rs.)
PV Cost 50% Electrification (Rs.)
7%
-596
-719
22036
22632
EIRR 50% Electrification
NPV 12% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)
NPV 14% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)
PV Benifits 50% Electrification (Rs.)
PV Cost 50% Electrification (Rs.)
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Section 6 Key Learnings Key Takeaways
Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis is to understand the feasibility of the project in terms of uncertainty that happens in the market. In this analysis we analysed two sensitivity parameters, which include 1. The stabilisation of diesel prices after 2025 2. Government deciding to scrap the subsidy after 2025 The Financial and Economic Internal Rate of Returns are analysed using the above mentioned parameters, to understand the Sensitivity of the project. It is understood that the stabilisation of the diesel prices will hamper the profit margins. The analysis also shows the dependency of the government in terms of the subsidies that are provideded as it increases the overall TCO of the electric bus.
Takeaway 1. From the analysis it is clearly evident that the operational cost of the Electric bus is less compared to Diesel bus. The demerit for the electric bus is the high upfront cost, but government are providing subsidies to compensate and promote the new mode. When the economy of scale increases the upfront cost of the Electric vehicle will go down and it will become more affordable. Currently, the Total cost of ownership of the electric bus is coming out to be higher compared to diesel bus. 2. Even though the TCO of Electric bus are higher compared to the diesel bus, it is seen evidently that the proposed scenario model is making profits that the Business as usual scenario, the reason being the declination in the ridership trend in the current system of operations and thereby the revenue generated by the existing scenario is less comparatively and is incurring heavy losses. Whereas according to the Discrete Choice model, when the wait time and the walk time is improved along with the comfort, there is seen a spike in the user shift towards the public transport. Since the ridership is high with the Revenue per pax of Rs. 1 on the base year and with escalation of 10% every year we are getting significant revenue from the operations. 3. In addition to this there is a savings in emissions into the atmosphere, which has a significant economic benefit and a huge treatment cost savings with the current phasing plan. Government can use this money saved help the MTC procure more bus by providing subsidies or divert the fund to other productive needs. 4. Currently the total cost of ownership of the Diesel bus is better but due to the discomfort and the longevity of the walk time and wait time, people are moving towards the private modes and IPTs. With the betterment of the system in terms of the walk time and wait time and the comfort (AC bus) we can make the system profitable by attracting more riders into the system.
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Key Learnings 7832
7049
789
1
3%
10%
Proposed Number of Bus 2031
Proposed Number of Standard Bus 2031
Proposed Number of Mini Bus 2031
Revenue per pax km (Rs.)
Escalation of per Pax revenue
Non-Fare Box revenue
-11%
-9%
6%
-14%
7%
FIRR BAU Scenario
FIRR 50% Electrification
FIRR 100% Electrification
EIRR 50% Electrification
EIRR 100% Electrification
-11%
4%
-15%
5%
FIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 50% Electrification
FIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 100% Electrification
EIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 50% Electrification
EIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 100% Electrification
-11%
8%
-14%
6%
FIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 50% Electrification
FIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 100% Electrification
EIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 50% Electrification
EIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 100% Electrification
Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai
Sujit Vishal G| PG191012 Master of Urban Transport Systems Guided by: Prof. Shivanand Swamy ans Mr. Khelan Modi