Feasibility Study for Electrification of Public Transport (Chennai)

Page 1

FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR ELECTRIFICATION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT Sujit Vishal G| PG191012

Guided by: Prof. Shivanand Swamy and Mr. Khelan Modi


Preface

Acknowledgement

This portfolio is talking about the electrification of Public Transport in the city of Chennai. To make a sustainable transportation model we must understand the city characteristics, the travel pattern and the mode share. The other important thing is the ridership trends of the city, are the people willing to travel in Public Transport or willingness to shift to the Public Transport. This document briefs about the demand, capital cost, operational cost, infrastructure development and the phasing of the project. The demand of the new sustainable mode is measures which helps in understand the increasing/decrease the ridership of the Public Transport based on the proposed modes. Based on the demand the number of fleet size for the satisfy the ridership is calculated. Different business scenarios are considered to understand the financial and economic viability of the business model. In addition, this document also talks about the environmental benefits like reduction in particulate matter on converting from the existing to the proposed mode, in doing so the government can save money on the treatment cost.

I would sincerely like to thank our studio guide, Prof. HM Shivanandswamy, Mr. Khelan Modi, Dr. Denis Jose and our academic associate, Ms. Madhura Kawadkar and Mr. Ramit Raunak for guiding and assisting me throughout the studio, for their critical inputs and comments which have led to my learning in the studio. I would like to express my gratitude towards my family and friends for always supporting and assisting me. Lastly, I would thank my fellow batch-mates, for their support and faith.

Disclaimer The Information presented in the portfolio has been studied as a part of “Transportation Project Studio� Faculty of Urban Transport Systems, CEPT University. Any Omissions and errors are deeply regretted


Content

1 2 3 4 5 6

Studio Objective and EV Overview Objective| National and State Policy| Methodology| Role of Government and STU’s, EV Ecosystem

Chennai City and Transport Characteristics About the City| Population| Mode Share| Present and Future Transport Characteristics

Total Cost of Ownership Capital Cost| Operational Cost| Escalation of the TCO

Demand Analysis Willingness to Shift| Ridership Estimate| Fleet Estimation|

Feasibility Analysis Fleet Procurement| Financial Analysis| Economic Analysis

Key Learnings Key Takeaways



Section 1 Studio Objective and EV Overview Objective| National and State Policy| Methodology| Role of Government and STU’s, EV Ecosystem


Objective

Methodology

The objective of this study is to understand, analyze and assess the feasibility of electric mobility in reshaping the current scenario of Public Transport System with better operational efficiency making it financially viable, economically and environmentally sustainable. Therefore, looking into the several aspects with respect to demand and supply for electrification of Public Transport is conducted

National Policy The Nation Electric Mobility Mission aims to 100% electrification of Public Transport. To mobilized National Mission on Electric Mobility on the fast track, Department of Heavy Industry formulated a scheme named FAME – India (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electrical Vehicles in India). Rs. 3545 budgetary allocation as a demand incentives to support the adoption of 7090 electric buses till 2022 To eliminate the heavy investment risk for STUs and Transport Undertakings to purchase electric buses, FAME II scheme has mandate Gross Cost Contract operating model to avail the subsidy.

State Policy 12 states have formulated their state policy with their objective of adopting electrical mobility in terms of manufacturing of different segment of vehicles, to undertake pilot projects, to grow the sale of electric vehicle and to establish state of the art charging facilities and incentives to support the potential growth of electric vehicle market.

Role of Government and Transport Undertakings State Govt./ ULB

STU Source: FAME, STU Document

1. Set targets and obligation for EV adoption in public transport. 2. Provide fiscal and non incentive and budgetary allocation. 3. Amendment of various other policies and regulatory framework to support EV adoption. 4. Support through Development Authority, Smart City Corporation or Municipal funds 1. Prepare detailed project implantation plan. Including fleet procurement and operational mechanism. 2. Selection of appropriate and suitable vehicle, battery and charging technology.

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Studio Objective and EV Overview EV Ecosystem

In India, E- buses accounts only nearly 0.66% making it the lowest segment by number in overall vehicle composition. However, with focus and priority for mass transit vehicles the FAME II scheme has allocated total of Rs. 3545 budgetary allocation as a demand incentives to support the adoption of 7090 electric buses till 2022.

EV Manufacturers

Demand In order to promote clean mobility in public transportation Department of Heavy Industry has granted the approval of 5,595 electric buses to be deployed in 64 cities under FAME II program. By 2025 the electric bus market in India is foreseen to reach 7000 units. A total of 86 proposals from 26 states and union territories for the deployment of off 14,988 buses.

55.06%

25.98%

Supply

7.02%

BYD Olectra

TATA Motors

Ashok Leyland

7.02%

PMI Foton

4.21% JMB Solaris

0.70% Volvo

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai

BYD announced its plan to increase the production up to 5000 vehicles per year. The government has granted approval for 5095 electric buses in 64 cities. 400 electric buses for intercity operation and 100 buses for last mile connectivity to DMRC



Section 2 Chennai City and Transport Characteristics About the City| Population| Mode Share| Present and Future Transport Characteristics


Chennai

Economy

Capital City of Tamil Nadu, located in the eastern coast of India. One of the 6 metropolitan cities in the country

426 km2

1189 km2

Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA)

Chennai Metropolitan Development Area (CMDA)

Mode Share

Rs. 5659

4th

GDP Chennai

GDP contributor in India

14%

40%

IT Sector in India

Automobile Industry in India

6% 25%

23%

3%

Chennai

7%

350

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

300 250 200 150

100 50

7%

30% Walk

No of Trips (Lakhs)

Population (Lakhs)

The population of Chennai is growing over the years at a growth rate of 4.5% per annum over the last decade. With the current trend the population is predicted to be 173 lakhs by the end of 2030. This will have an overall impact on the demand of transportation of the city and will be requiring a proper managing of the travel pattern of the city Bicycle

Auto-Rickshaw

Car/Van

2 Wheelers

Bus

350 Train 300

2 Wheeler

Bicycle

Bus

IPT

Train

Car

0 2008

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Walk

Year Population No of Trips Population of Chennai

Source: FAME, STU Document

No of Trips

107.8 Lakhs

157 Lakhs

1.62

Population of Chennai (2020)

No of Trips in Chennai (2018)

Per Capita Trip Rate (2018)

181.8 Lakhs

300 Lakhs

4.95%

Projected Population of Chennai (2031)

No of Trips in Chennai (2031)

Growth Rate of Chennai (Per Annum)

Source: CMP Chennai, MTC

As of 2018, the city is predominently dependent on the 2-wheeler and public Transport. Bicycles and Train are the least prefered mode in the city

53% Mode Share of Public Transport and 2 wheelers (2018)

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Chennai City and Transport Characteristics Bus Procurement

Metropolitan Transport Corporation is a Public Transport Authority of Chennai. The authority was established in 1970, to cater the city people and to make the transport easy. The ridership of MTC has fluctuated over the years and so is the fleet size. Due to the reduction in ridership per day the fleet size has also reduced over the years and currently there are 3679 bus as of 2019. The busses used in the fleet by MTC is Standard TATA bus and Mini TATA bus. The transport authority has 33 Depots with an area of 0.42 km2. The fleets are operated in 695 routes of which 57 are for mini bus fleets.

To prepare the replacement schedule of the bus in the future, the average age of the fleet and the bus procurement over the years is to be studied. The average age if the MTC fleet in 2020 is 7.38. The table shows that the bus replacement is required in the early 2020 because of the heavy procurement that happened in 2010 to 2015.

60

4000

55 50

3000

45 2000

40

1000 800 No of Bus

5000

Ridership (Lakhs)

Fleet Size (Lakhs)

Metropolitan Transport Corporation (MTC)

600 400

1000

35

200

0

30

0

2010

2011

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2010

Year

Bus Average fleet Head

Ridership

Ridership per day

Regions of Metropolitan Transport Corporation (MTC) The 33 depots are divided into 9 regions and each depot will fall into one of the mentioned regions. Each region heads has 3 to 5 depots as sub region. The regional office is responsible of maintaining the bus operations in the sub regions. The 9 regions of the MTC is given below: 1. Adyar Region 2. Thiruvanmiyur Region 3. T.Nagar Region 4. Chrompet Region 5. Vadapalani Region

6. Ayanavaram Region 7. Annanagar Region 8. Tondiarpet-1 Region 9. Madhavaram Region

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai

Bus

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015 Year

2016

2017

2018

2019


Fleet Strength in Depot The Fleet Strength is different in each depot. The dependency of the fleet strengthis based on the demand and the area of the depots

250 No of Bus

200 150

100 50

Fleet Strength

PADIYANALLUR

MKB NAGAR

MADHAVARAM

VYASARPADI

BASIN BRIDGE

ENNORE

THIRUVOTTIYUR

TONDIARPET-II

TONDIARPET-1

AVADI

AMBATHUR

ANNANAGAR

PERAMBUR

AYANAVARAM

CENTRAL DEPOT

POONAMALLEE

VADAPALANI

IYYAPPANTHANGAL

CHROMPET-II

TAMBARAM

CHROMPET

KUNDRATHUR

K.K.NAGAR

SAIDAPET

T.NAGAR

PERUMBAKKAM

ALANDUR

KANNAGI NAGAR

THIRUVANMIYUR

ADAMBAKKAM

BESANT NAGAR

MANDAVELI

ADYAR

0

Depots

3674

695

300

33

8.67

84.3%

Bus Fleet (2018)

No of Routes

Average kms /day (Standard bus)

No of Bus depots

Average Age of the bus (2019)

Occupancy Ratio

211

57

200

22956

6.2

Mini Bus (2018)

No of Mini Bus Routes

Average kms /day (Mini bus)

Staff Strength (2019)

Bus Staff Ratio

Source: CMP Chennai, MTC

0.42 km2

Rs. 1304

Rs. 1804

Rs. 49967

Area of Depot

Revenue (Crores)

Operation Cost (Crores)

Net Loss (Crores)

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Chennai City and Transport Characteristics Projected Mode Share of Chennai Due to the Increase in the preference of 2-wheeler mode in the city and the decrease in the ridership of PT over a period of time, the mode share of 2 wheelers at the end of 2031 is expected to be 41%.

300

No of Trips (Lakhs)

250

200 150 100 50

0 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

6%

6%

6%

6%

Year

100%

6%

6%

6%

90%

Walk

Bicycle

6%

6%

Auto-Rickshaw

6%

Car/Van

6%

2 Wheelers

6%

Bus

6%

Train

6%

23%

21%

20%

19%

18%

17%

16%

15%

14%

13%

13%

12%

11%

11%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

39%

40%

41%

41%

30%

40%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

30%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

7% 3%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

80%

41%

11%

Mode Share of 2 wheelers (2031)

Mode Share of PT (2031)

Mode Share

70% 60%

2 Wheeler

Bicycle

Bus

IPT

Train

Car

50%

20% 10%

Walk

0% 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Year Walk

Bicycle

Auto-Rickshaw

Car/Van

2 Wheelers

Bus

Train

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai

2030

2031



Section 3 Total Cost Of Ownership Capital Cost| Operational Cost| Escalation of the TCO


Total Cost of Ownership Total Cost of Ownership will provide an understanding various cost components associated with entire lifecycle of bus. Considering Gross Cost Contract modal as focal point of the entire feasibility study, the Total Cost of Contract-ship was also computed based on the results received from the total cost of ownership in order to apply them for the procurement of fleet based on Gross Cost Contract.

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)= Capex + Opex 400

900

350

800 700

250 200

150

Cost (Rs. Lakhs)

Cost (Rs. Lakhs)

300

Opex Opex

100

500 400

Opex Opex

300 200

Capex

50 0

600

100

Capex

0

Diesel Mini Bus

Fuelling/Charnging Unit

Diesel Standard Bus

Replacement Cost

Residual Value

Fuel Cost

Repair and maintenance cost

Staff cost

MV, Passanger Tax

Fuel/Charging Units

Repair and Maintanance

Capex

E Mini Bus

Total Purchase Cost

Total Purchase Cost

Capex

Replacement Cost

Staff Cost

MV, Passenger Tax

E Standard Bus

Total Purchase Cost

Fuelling/Charnging Unit

Replacement Cost

Residual Value

Fuel Cost

Repair and maintenance cost

Residual Value

Staff cost

Insurance

Fuel Cost

MV, Passanger Tax

Insurance

Insurance

306

372

695

831

TCO of Mini Diesel (Rs. Lakhs)

TCO of Mini Electric (Rs. Lakhs)

TCO of Standard Diesel (Rs. Lakhs)

TCO of Standard Electric (Rs. Lakhs)

Source: MTC, STU Documents

10%

3%

1%

Depreciation Value of bus

Insurance against the Residual Value of the bus

Passenger Tax against the Residual Value of the bus

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Total Cost of Ownership

0

Diesel Mini Bus

Cost (Rs.Lakhs)

180

E Mini Bus

Total Purchase Cost

Fuelling/Charnging Unit

150

Replacement Cost

Residual Value

Fuel Cost

Repair and maintenance cost

120

Staff cost

MV, Passanger Tax

12 10 8

Insurance

90

6

60

4

30

2

0

0 Capex (Purchase Cost + Depot Cost )

Opex

FY 0

FY 1

Opex

Opex

FY 2

FY 3

Opex

Opex + Battery Replacement Cost

Opex

FY 5

FY 6

FY 4

Opex

Opex

FY 7

Opex

FY 8

FY 9

Annual kms (Lakhs)

Expense on a bus during the Lifetime

Opex + Residual Value

E Mini Bus

Diesel Standard Bus

E Standard Bus

Kms mini

Standard Diesel Mini Electric Standard Electric Annual kms Mini

FY 10

Annual Kms Standard

Year Diesel Mini Bus

Mini Diesel

Kms Standard

Total Cost of Ownership per km The TCO of the bus will also fluctuate in the future, with the consideration of the Whole Sale price index of the Energy, R&M and the man power cost in the Future. Due to the escalation in the price the TCO in the future will also be higher.

Cost per km (Rs.)

80 60

Indexation Electricity Diesel Man Power R&M Inflation

Escalation 1% 12% 6% 1.5% 9%

40 20 0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Mini Diesel

Standard Diesel

Mini Electric

Standard Electric

2031

Year Mini Cost./ km Diesel

45

Mini Cost./ km Electric

Standard Cost./ km Diesel

47

Standard Cost./ km Electric

60

59

Cost Per km Mini Diesel (Rs.) (2020)

Cost Per km Mini Electric (Rs.) (2020)

Cost Per km Mini Diesel (Rs.) (2031)

Cost Per km Mini Electric (Rs.) (2031)

52

53

77

66

Cost Per km Standard Diesel (Rs.) (2020)

Cost Per km Standard Electric (Rs.) (2020)

Cost Per km Standard Diesel (Rs.) (2031)

Cost Per km Standard Electric (Rs.) (2031)

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai



Section 4 Demand Analysis Willingness to Shift| Ridership Estimate| Fleet Estimation|


Demand Analysis With the Current population and the number of trips occurring per day it is expected that, there is a transformation of trend towards 2 wheelers and the ridership of the Public Transport bus is also constantly decreasing over the years. To make a shift from the private modes and IPTs and also to promote the E-bus in the city, user surveys are made in order to identify the Choice of shift people will make towards the public transport when there is seen an improvement in Walk time, Wait Time and Comfort Level. A discrete choice model was done to analyse the shift from different modes to Public Transport.

Demand Created Due to Improvement in Public Transport

Mode

Walk Time

Wait Time

Comfort

2Wheeler

5 min

3 min

Air Conditioned

4 Wheeler IPT

5min 5 min

3 min 3 min

Air Conditioned Air Conditioned

70 60 Ridership (Lakhs)

Showcard were prepared and the improvement in the system were shown to identify the willingness of the people to shift from private and IPT modes to the Public Transport. The improvement in the system include less walkability, improving the headway and the comfort levels

50 40 30 20 10 0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029 2030

2031

Year

BAU Scenario BAU

Proposed Scenario

Proposed Scenario

Fleet Size Fleet Size of the PT system is based on the demand that is created, the occupancy of the fleet, fleet Utilisation and the bus capacity. The share of the mini bus is increased to improve the feeder system

8000 7000 Fleet Size

6000

20%

7%

Expected Shift from 2-Wheelers

Expected Shift from 4-Wheelers

40%

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

Expected Shift from 0 2027 2028 2029 2020 2030 2021 2031 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 IPT Year BAU

Source: MTC, Primary Surveys

Proposed Scenario

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Demand Analysis Proposed Mode Share 100%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

29%

28%

27%

26%

25%

24%

24%

23%

22%

22%

21%

21%

27%

28%

29%

29%

30%

31%

32%

32%

33%

34%

34%

35%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

7% 4% 3%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

90%

80%

Mode Share

70%

60% 50%

40% 30%

20% 10%

2 Wheeler

Bicycle

Bus

IPT

Train

Car

Walk

0% Year

155

Walk

Surveys Conducted

65 Auto-Rickshaw

Bicycle

Car/Van

2-Wheeler Surveys

2 Wheelers

21

Bus

69

94%

6%

IPT Surveys

Share of Standard Bus 2020

Share of Mini Bus 2020

Train

4-Wheeler Surveys

81%

95%

7832

90%

10%

Fleet Utilisation BAU

Fleet Utilisation Proposed

Proposed Scenario Standard Bus Required 2031

Proposed Share of Standard Bus

Proposed Share of Mini Bus

3200

204

7049

783

BAU Standard Bus Required 2031

BAU Mini Bus Required 2031

Proposed Standard Bus Required 2031

Proposed Mini Bus Required 2031

21%

35

63

Mode Share of PT 2031

Ridership of PT (Lakhs) 2018

Ridership of PT (Lakhs) 2031

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai



Section 5 Feasibility Analysis Fleet Procurement| Financial Analysis| Economic Analysis


No of Bus

Fleet Procurement 0% Electrification (BAU Scenario) 1400

No of Bus

1200

400 200

1000

800

0

600

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year

400

200 0 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

The fleet Procurement Plan is based on the number of bus required to be added to the fleet year inYear.Some Factor that impacts the fleet procurement is the scrapping of the busses.

Year Mini Bus Procured

Standard Bus Procured

Fleet Procurement 50% Electrification 1400

In the BAUScenario, the number of bus procured is less compared to the proposed scenarios because of the less demand in the system. Additional busses will be a dead investment because of the lack of demand.

1200 No of Bus

1000 800

600 400 200

0 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Year

Fleet Procurement 100% Electrification Standard Diesel Bus Procured Standard Electric Bus Procured

Mini Diesel Bus Procured

Mini Electric Bus Procured

In the 100% Electrification Scenario, the number of bus procured is same as the 50% Electrification Scenario. There is a requirement of high procurement of the electric bus in the beginning years considering the current age of the fleet and the requirement for replacement of the bus into the system. In this scenario, there is seen no procurement of diesel bus in any of the years. At the end of 2031, the entire fleet will be electrified

1400 1200 1000 No of Bus

In the 50% Electrification Scenario, the number of bus procured higher compared to the BAU Scenario. Since the TCO of the Electric bus are proportionally lesser in the future due to the escalation of diesel price, the procurement of the electric bus in this scenario is starting from 2023. At the end of 2031, the proportion of the diesel and electric bus in the fleet will be 50%

800 600 400 200

Mini Diesel

Standard Diesel

Mini Electric

Standard Electric

0 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Year Standard Electric Bus Procured

2029

2030

2031

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai

Mini Electric Bus Procured


Feasibility Analysis Estimated Fleet in Depots 0% Electrification (BAU Scenario) 400 300 200

Depots

PADIYANALLUR

MKB NAGAR

MADHAVARAM

VYASARPADI

BASIN BRIDGE

ENNORE

THIRUVOTTIYUR

TONDIARPET-II

TONDIARPET-1

AVADI

AMBATHUR

ANNANAGAR

PERAMBUR

AYANAVARAM

CENTRAL DEPOT

POONAMALLEE

VADAPALANI

IYYAPPANTHANGAL

CHROMPET-II

CENTRAL DEPOT

0

AYANAVARAM ADYAR PERAMBUR MANDAVELI ANNANAGAR BESANT NAGAR AMBATHUR ADAMBAKKAM AVADI THIRUVANMIYUR TONDIARPET-1 KANNAGI NAGAR TONDIARPET-II ALANDUR THIRUVOTTIYUR PERUMBAKKAM ENNORE T.NAGAR BASIN BRIDGE SAIDAPET VYASARPADI K.K.NAGAR MADHAVARAM KUNDRATHUR MKB NAGAR CHROMPET PADIYANALLUR TAMBARAM

100

POONAMALLEE

VADAPALANI

Depot

Standard Bus

Mini Bus

Estimated Fleet in Depots 100% Electrification 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

400 300 200

PADIYANALLUR

MKB NAGAR

MADHAVARAM

VYASARPADI

BASIN BRIDGE

ENNORE

THIRUVOTTIYUR

TONDIARPET-II

TONDIARPET-1

AVADI

PERAMBUR

AYANAVARAM

CENTRAL DEPOT

POONAMALLEE

IYYAPPANTHANGAL

CHROMPET-II

TAMBARAM

CHROMPET

KUNDRATHUR

K.K.NAGAR

SAIDAPET

T.NAGAR

PERUMBAKKAM

ALANDUR

KANNAGI NAGAR

THIRUVANMIYUR

ADAMBAKKAM

BESANT NAGAR

MANDAVELI

ADYAR

0

AMBATHUR

100 ANNANAGAR

No of Bus

500

VADAPALANI

IYYAPPANTHANGAL

No of Bus

500

Depots

Standard Bus

Mini Bus

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai

Chargers

The fleet estimations and the procurement schedule are made based on the demand. The infrastructure development of chargers is to be set in place after that based on the scenarios. Since there are four Regions in MTC, the fleet estimate is calculated phase wise and the charging infrastructure is developed. Fleet procurement in Depots and Development of Charging Infrastructure. In the BAU Scenario, the fleet size estimated at the end of 2031 is 3903 bus. These busses need no charging infrastructure in the fleet as they are all diesel busses and will be no requirement for augmentation of the fleet size as well because of the demand. The 50% Electrification scenario has a total of 7049 buses in the fleet by 2031, of which 50% are electrified fleets. To satisfy the demand caused by the electrified busses, the charging infrastructure is to be provided. Since there is a mixture of both diesel and electric busses in the fleet, the proposed depots where chargers are available will only cater the electric buses and the remaining depots will be catering the diesel buses and the infrastructure for the same will be carried. The 100% Electrification scenario has a total of 7049 buses in the fleet by 2031, of which all busses are electrified. To satisfy the demand caused by the electrified busses, the charging infrastructure is to be provided in all the depots.


65

7000

1

3%

10%

60

6000

55

Revenue per pax kms Rs.

Escalation per pax revenue

Non-Fare Box Revenue

-11%

-9%

6%

FIRR BAU Scenario

FIRR 50% Electrification

FIRR 100% Electrification

5000

50

4000

45

3000 2000

40

1000

35

0

30

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024 Operation Cost

Financial Analysis 50% Electrification Year

Cost (Rs. Crores)

eration Cost

8000

Revenue

2025 2026 Year 8000

Revenue

2027

2028

2029

2030

Ridership (Lakhs)

8000

2031

Ridership

Ridership

65

7000

60

6000

55

5000

50

4000

45

3000 2000

40

1000

35

0

30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Ridership (Lakhs)

Cost (Rs. Crores)

Financial Analysis 0% Electrification (BAU Scenario)

2031

Cost (Rs. Crores)

Financial Analysis 100% Electrification

Ridership

8000

65

7000

60

6000

55

5000

50

4000

45

3000 2000

40

1000

35

0

30 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Year Operation Cost

Revenue

Ridership

2028

2029

2030

2031

Ridership (Lakhs)

Revenue

In the BAUScenario. the ridership is declining and hence the system in experiencing a huge loss and there is a requirement of improvement in the existing system. In 50% Electrification Scenario, due to the mixture of both the electric and diesel bus in the fleet the profit generated is also changing. Due to the EPISODE where the diesel prices are higher in the future than the electric price, henceforth the FIRR for this scenario is better compared to BAU Scenario, where the FIRR is -9%

Year Operation Cost

Financial Model is the part of the outcome of our Total expenditure against the total outcome of the project. In a financial model we have to analyse the capital expense we have to incorporate year upon year due to the expenditure of capital cost of fleet procurements, operation and maintenance. The financial model also includes the revenue generated for the same and thereby also helping us to analyse if the particular system is robust or not.

In 100% Electrification Scenario, due to the mixture of both the electric and diesel bus in the fleet the profit generated is also changing. Over a period of time, the number of diesel buses in the fleet is reducing and will be zero by 2031. Due to the WPi where the diesel prices are higher in the future than the electric price, henceforth the FIRR for this scenario is better compared to 50% Electrification Scenario, where the FIRR is -9% Operation Cost

Revenue

Ridership per day

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Feasibility Analysis

8000

6000

7000

5500

6000

5000

5000

4500

4000

4000

3000

3500

2000

3000

1000

2500

0

2000 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Vehicle Operation Cost Savings

Operation Cost (Rs. Crores)

Savings Cost (Rs. Crores)

Economic Analysis

Infrastructure Savings Emission Savings Operation Cost 50% Electrification Operation Cost 100% Electrification

2031

Year VOC

Infrastructure

Emission Savings

Operation Cost 50

Operation Cost 100

With the consideration of the life time running of the mini and standard bus, the conversion of the diesel buses to electric can save a lot of treat-ment cost as well. It is estimated that the mini bus can save a total of Rs. 10.6 Lakhs during its entire life run and a standard bus can save a total of Rs. 14.6 Lakhs during its entire life run. When the same is carried to the larger fleet size the cost benefits will be huge and the savings the govern-ment will be able to use the funds to deviate to other benefits life subsi-dies for the electric bus, etc. To understand the amount of kms saved on diesel we can calculate the kilometers that the public transport is covering in Electric Vehicles year upon year and thereby we can understand the volume of pollutants saved due to conversion after which the treatment cost is calculated. The treatment cost is done based on the emissions that are caused by the different modes. The government has to have additional expense on per gram of emissions happening this Vehicle cost will be an additional benefit as the conversion to electric bus can save the cost that is deviated for treatment According to the IRC the Vehicle Operation Cost includes the cost saved in operation of different modes. These saved operations included the cost saved on fuel lubricants etc. The VOC savings per km is calculated based on the IRC Standards as given in the Manual on Economic Evaluation of Highway Project in India where the Savings are calculated.

-14%

-2774

-2629

21735

24509

EIRR 50% Electrification

NPV 12% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)

NPV 14% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)

PV Benifits 50% Electrification (Rs.)

PV Cost 50% Electrification (Rs.)

7%

-596

-719

22036

22632

EIRR 50% Electrification

NPV 12% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)

NPV 14% Discount 50% Electrification (Rs.)

PV Benifits 50% Electrification (Rs.)

PV Cost 50% Electrification (Rs.)

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai



Section 6 Key Learnings Key Takeaways


Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis is to understand the feasibility of the project in terms of uncertainty that happens in the market. In this analysis we analysed two sensitivity parameters, which include 1. The stabilisation of diesel prices after 2025 2. Government deciding to scrap the subsidy after 2025 The Financial and Economic Internal Rate of Returns are analysed using the above mentioned parameters, to understand the Sensitivity of the project. It is understood that the stabilisation of the diesel prices will hamper the profit margins. The analysis also shows the dependency of the government in terms of the subsidies that are provideded as it increases the overall TCO of the electric bus.

Takeaway 1. From the analysis it is clearly evident that the operational cost of the Electric bus is less compared to Diesel bus. The demerit for the electric bus is the high upfront cost, but government are providing subsidies to compensate and promote the new mode. When the economy of scale increases the upfront cost of the Electric vehicle will go down and it will become more affordable. Currently, the Total cost of ownership of the electric bus is coming out to be higher compared to diesel bus. 2. Even though the TCO of Electric bus are higher compared to the diesel bus, it is seen evidently that the proposed scenario model is making profits that the Business as usual scenario, the reason being the declination in the ridership trend in the current system of operations and thereby the revenue generated by the existing scenario is less comparatively and is incurring heavy losses. Whereas according to the Discrete Choice model, when the wait time and the walk time is improved along with the comfort, there is seen a spike in the user shift towards the public transport. Since the ridership is high with the Revenue per pax of Rs. 1 on the base year and with escalation of 10% every year we are getting significant revenue from the operations. 3. In addition to this there is a savings in emissions into the atmosphere, which has a significant economic benefit and a huge treatment cost savings with the current phasing plan. Government can use this money saved help the MTC procure more bus by providing subsidies or divert the fund to other productive needs. 4. Currently the total cost of ownership of the Diesel bus is better but due to the discomfort and the longevity of the walk time and wait time, people are moving towards the private modes and IPTs. With the betterment of the system in terms of the walk time and wait time and the comfort (AC bus) we can make the system profitable by attracting more riders into the system.

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Key Learnings 7832

7049

789

1

3%

10%

Proposed Number of Bus 2031

Proposed Number of Standard Bus 2031

Proposed Number of Mini Bus 2031

Revenue per pax km (Rs.)

Escalation of per Pax revenue

Non-Fare Box revenue

-11%

-9%

6%

-14%

7%

FIRR BAU Scenario

FIRR 50% Electrification

FIRR 100% Electrification

EIRR 50% Electrification

EIRR 100% Electrification

-11%

4%

-15%

5%

FIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 50% Electrification

FIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 100% Electrification

EIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 50% Electrification

EIRR when India’s Electric bus Subsidy Strategy stops after 2025 100% Electrification

-11%

8%

-14%

6%

FIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 50% Electrification

FIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 100% Electrification

EIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 50% Electrification

EIRR if Diesel Price stabilises after 2025 100% Electrification

Feasibility Study For Adoption of Electrification of Public Transport- Chennai


Sujit Vishal G| PG191012 Master of Urban Transport Systems Guided by: Prof. Shivanand Swamy ans Mr. Khelan Modi


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