Business Day Credit Management Insights (February 24 2022)

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BusinessDay www.businessday.co.za Thursday 24 February 2022

INSIGHTS

CREDIT MANAGEMENT

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Consumers to bear brunt of interest rate hikes

Households •must allow for

additional expenses, writes Pedro van Gaalen

A

s the South African Reserve Bank moves to quell rising inflation by raising interest rates, the next few years promise to be volatile for credit markets. While rising rates are a positive indicator of a strengthening economy, explains Ayanda Ndimande, Strategic Business Development Manager: Retail Credit at Sanlam, it is ultimately the consumer who bears the brunt. “Interest rate hikes are unfortunately always to the detriment of the consumer, especially when it comes to bigticket items such as home and vehicle loans. A rise in 25 basis points could mean the difference of a few hundred rand or more each month, depending on the initial debt.” The bank started its latest rate-hiking cycle in late 2021, raising the repo rate by 25 basis points in November, with more hikes set for 2022. “South African households had an average debt to disposable income ratio of 76% following the rate increase in November 2021, and the latest

Ayanda Ndimande … difference. increase could push this as high as 77%,” explains Weihan Sun, Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion Africa. The impact on already overindebted consumers and businesses battered by the Covid-19 pandemic’s economic fallout will likely have significant implications for access to credit and creditworthiness. Berniece Hieckmann, Head of Metropolitan GetUp, believes many consumers could find themselves in challenging financial positions amid rising interest rates due to the lending environment the pandemic created. “In some cases, consumers who had a good credit record prior to lockdown might have applied for credit in the low interest rate environment to get them through any financial difficulty. In turn, credit providers may have been more willing to

extend credit based on the client’s unblemished credit record and historic cash flows.” Now, with income and employment levels yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, Hieckmann believes consumers could face increased risks in serving the debt secured to tide them over during the pandemic. TransUnion’s Q4 Consumer Pulse Study showed that among consumers who said their household income is currently impacted, 85% remained “highly concerned” about their ability to pay their bills and loans. “The period of rising interest rate cycles we’re moving into increases the cost of money and introduces additional expenses to the consumer wallet without a corresponding increase to their income. This development could impact the demand and supply characteristics of the market,” says Sun. Brett van Aswegen, CEO of Wonga, adds that rising interest rates also means an increase in the cost of interest for the credit provider and credit consumer.

REPAYMENT STRESS

“Unfortunately, the credit consumer is unable to pass on this additional cost, which means, for many, the higher monthly repayment can lead to repayment stress and an increased risk of defaulting on credit agreements.” Jaco van Jaarsveldt, Chief Decision Analytics Officer at Experian, explains that middle and upper-class consumers will

Chris Ogden … impact. likely experience the greatest distress in response to rising interest rates. According to the Experian Q4 Consumer Default Index (CDI), pockets of financial distress have emerged in the local market, particularly in those segments with the greatest exposure to secured lending products. For example, data from the report shows that defaults in the most affluent consumer group, the Luxury Living segment, deteriorated 7% on a year-onyear basis. “This group has access to the greatest quantum of secured and unsecured credit in the market. Those who were already in financial distress when the latest interest rate hiking cycle started will struggle with affordability as even a 50 basis point rise adds significantly to their repayment

obligations,” says Van Jaarsveldt. “And when credit starts getting more expensive before affordability normalises, the credit bubble created by the pandemic’s unprecedented demand and supply dynamics could pop. If this happens, consumers will face further pandemic-triggered financial hardship,” adds Hieckmann. Faced with these risks, Ndimande recommends that consumers review and adjust their household budgets. “Allow for the additional expense that comes when interest rate hikes increase repayments on their credit purchases. It is vital to ensure they can still afford to service their credit payments.” More broadly speaking, credit providers will also likely feel the impact of rising interest rates, suggests Chris Ogden, the CEO of RubiBlue. “While rising interest rates mean more revenue, the likely rise in defaults will impact the business. It also remains to be seen if providers will attract more loans in a lending environment where consumers are under financial pressure and cannot afford the repayments,” he concludes.

Covid-19 spurs rise in cybercrimes: report Cybercriminals are using the pandemic to exploit consumers and business owners, many of whom are desperate to access capital and credit amid the cash crunch brought about by stringent lockdowns and the economic slowdown. With people spending more time online while working, shopping and schooling remotely, Covid-19 has given cybercriminals a unique opportunity to exploit new vulnerabilities, which has helped fuel what experts are calling the “cybercrime pandemic”. According to the 2021 Cybercrime in a pandemic world: The impact of Covid-19 report by McAfee and FireEye, 81% of global organisations experienced an increase in cyber threats, while 79% experienced costly downtime due to a cyber incident during the pandemic, mostly during

THE PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTORS ARE COLLABORATING TO MITIGATE THE RISK POSED BY THE THREAT OF IDENTITY THEFT AND OTHER FORMS OF CREDIT FRAUD

creditworthiness in the context of the crisis. Furthermore, the report highlights that individual business models, even those within the same subsector, may differ in their suitability to survival and a faster recovery in the current environment. In

addition, analysing businesses on historical data has also became misleading. As such, lenders can no longer assess credit risk using traditional approaches alone as many conventional data sources typically used have became obsolete.

In this regard, the report states that the unique features of the pandemic-triggered crisis have prompted lenders to build digital intelligence capabilities such as real-time data and analytics into their creditdecision engines to make more informed decisions.

peak season. Among consumers, the African Cyberthreat Assessment Report 2021 published by the International Criminal Police Organisation (Interpol) identified online scams as one of the most prolific threats. The modus operandi used in these attacks involves using fake emails or text messages claiming to be from a legitimate source to trick individuals into revealing personal or financial information. In response, the private and public sectors are collaborating in various ways to mitigate the risk posed by the rising threat of identity theft and other forms of credit fraud. From a credit provider perspective, Chris Ogden, CEO

BIOMETRICS

“More recently, there has been a shift towards biometric account security such as facial recognition, fingerprinting and voice recognition.” In this regard, there has been a commitment from government departments and agencies to combat cyberfraud, affirms Van Aswegen. “For instance, the department of home affairs opened up its database to vetted third parties, which enables them to do comparative facial recognition.”

Borrow for the right reasons

Lenders adjust their risk thresholds A combination of rising inflation, tepid economic growth, record unemployment and higher interest rates will continue to constrain lending in the local market as credit providers tighten their loan criteria and closely vet creditworthiness among increasingly financially distressed consumers and businesses. “Compliance is playing a significant role in the financial services sector. Clients are vetted deeply when it comes to loans,” explains Chris Ogden, CEO of RubiBlue. “Credit providers need to protect their loans by ensuring they do their homework on a consumer first. It is a delicate battle but compliance dictates the rules, and providers interpret these rules to suit their business risk appetite.” While the methods used to assess creditworthiness have not changed, in an already overstressed credit environment many credit providers have adjusted their risk thresholds around credit scoring and affordability, according to Brett van Aswegen, CEO of Wonga. “This leads to lower approval rates. In turn, this may drive consumers towards the informal, unregulated credit market,” he says. Lenders will apply similar levels of vetting when assessing credit risk among businesses, particularly due to variable sector-specific recoveries and outlooks. According to a McKinsey & Company white paper on managing and monitoring credit risk after the Covid-19 pandemic, the crisis-induced shock to profit and loss will differ by sector and subsector, and will result in variable recovery paths. The paper states that banks must go beyond analysing sectors or subsectors and also assess individual borrowers to properly evaluate

Brett van Aswegen … facial recognition and fingerprinting.

of RubiBlue, highlights multiple steps that the sector has implemented to protect consumers. “These measures include hiring white hat hacking professionals to run various penetration tests to fine-tune any identified loopholes and prevent hacks on technical assets,” he says. Ogden adds that adhering to strict processes remains a vital step for maintaining robust controls. “In this regard, vetting information across multiple data streams is essential to ensure accuracy.” The sector has also accelerated its adoption of multifactor authentication, says Brett van Aswegen, CEO of Wonga.

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Borrow for the right reasons. Bayport Financial Services 2010 (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP 42380) and a registered Credit Provider (NCRCP 4685). Terms and conditions apply.


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