Outook ‘robust’, despite challenges: report
beyond the 180,000 tonnes it presently receives from SA. The local citrus industry predicts that it could export 260-million cartons of citrus by 2032 up from just under 165.3-million in 2024 and create an additional 100,000 jobs. However, that will require an additional 1,552 additional truck trips a week to take citrus to ports which SAs existing road infrastructure can t sustain. The Citrus Growers’ Association says it needs rail services to be restored. The Western Cape provincial government has noted its concern about the slow pace of the turnaround strategy at the Cape Town port. Despite improvements in ship turnaround times, it was too late to assist the apple and pear industry during its peak export season.
Nonperishable commodities are also being diverted to other regional ports. Coal exports, for example, are being diverted away from SA to Maputo. Between 2021 and 2023, the
port of Maputo increased the volume of cargo it handles from 22.2-million tonnes to 31.2million tonnes. The port has been building its capabilities for several years now and is aiming to grow its capacity from the current 37-million tonnes to 52-million tonnes by 2058. In 2022, Maputo overtook Durban in the World Bank s container port performance index. The risk, says the report, is that local ports lose vital market share. Formerly too expensive, the dysfunction of other export modalities now renders air freight the only viable alternative, especially for highvalue, time-sensitive cargoes. This holds especially true for importers who face lengthy port delays and bear the burden of increased storage levies and demurrage surcharges, says the report. Despite the challenges, the
SMALLER TRADERS HAVE OPTED FOR ALTERNATIVE FINANCING SOURCES, INCLUDING CREDIT LINES FROM SUPPLIERS
report finds that the export outlook for SA and many of its neighbours remains remarkably robust particularly for various commodity exports which are in demand globally. However, not all exporters are able to capitalise on booming export markets, says the report, explaining that lenders have drawn down on their risk exposure by only providing trade financing to a smaller number of privileged exporters. Smaller traders, it says, have opted for alternative financing sources, including credit lines from suppliers, many of whom are Chinese companies. Despite this lifeline, the report estimates that the trade finance gap in any given year is between $100bn and $120bn.
While the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in 2019 was greeted with significant fanfare, seamless intra-African trade remains elusive for ground transporters, says the report. Persistent challenges include duplicated customs procedures on both sides of borders, complex trade procedures and high export and import levies and duties.
continues to rely on manual processes in many areas. According to the International Chamber of Commerce, a cross-border trade transaction on average involves the exchange of up to 36 different documents and 240 copies. Milo is among those who believes the industry needs to embrace technology and digitisation to improve efficiencies. Digitisation can come in many forms including customer channels to enable customers to transact digitally, robotics, application programming interfaces (APIs) and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions to create efficiencies within a bank s processing environment resulting in quicker turnaround times for customers.
Digitisation of trade finance has many benefits, he says. “Fewer manual data entries help to improve efficiencies and make turnaround times faster. Electronic formats can make data more reliable and lead to more accurate reporting and analytics. Less paper means more sustainability in supply chains. Decreased reliance on couriers to deliver physical documents results in lower costs. Quicker turnaround times often result in faster financial settlements, which goes a long way to reducing financing costs and increasing liquidity and cash flows for exporters. While the time-saving and efficiency benefits of going digital may seem obvious, there is an opportunity to boost digital adoption, says Milo. Stakeholders are accustomed to established manual processes, so it naturally takes some change management to make the shift to digital solutions. Other potential barriers to adoption include concerns around cybersecurity and fraud risks, as well as the complexity of harmonising various technology solutions
across the business” Ilhaam Jakoet, a senior legal adviser in Standard Bank s Trade Finance division, says another challenge is a lack of a suitable legal framework to recognise digitisation efforts. Guidance on legal frameworks does exist in the form of the Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR) drafted by the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law. However, MLETR is not law but instead includes key principles to uphold when developing local laws to recognise electronic formats of transferable records. Each country, she says, must still enact its own laws to give effect to MLETR. In September 2023, the Electronic Trade Documents Act came into force in the UK to give legal recognition to electronic formats of documents commonly used in trade and trade finance.
FURTHER ACTION The UK legislation is important because the majority of international trade contracts are governed by English law, including contracts involving South African exporters and importers. It s also a significant step toward creating legal certainty in contracts between buyers and sellers. However, we need further action to have the actual electronic trade documents recognised, accepted and enforced in the various importing countries. For example, customs authorities require assurance of adequate processes and systems to mitigate the risk of fraud in trade documents, says Jakoet. While SA has legislation governing electronic transactions, there is no legislation
writes Lynette Dicey
Justin Milo. Ilhaam Jakoet.
Trump’s comeback heraldsdivision in US
• Former president beat Harris by capitalising on voters’ concerns about high prices and unproven claims about more crime due to illegal immigrants
Steve Holland, Nandita Bose, Stephanie Kelly and Joseph Ax Palm Beach, Florida
Donald Trump was elected US presidenton Tuesday,cappinga remarkable comebackfour yearsafter hewasvoted outof the White House, and ushering in a new US leadership likely to test democraticinstitutions at home and relations abroad. Trump recaptured the White House by securingmore than the 270electoral
unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump saidearlyon Wednesday to aroaring crowd ofsupporters atthe PalmBeach County Convention Center in Florida.
Trump spolitical careerhad appearedto beover afterhis false claimsof electionfraud led a mob of supporters to storm the USCapitol onJanuary6 2021,in a failed bid to overturn his 2020 defeat.But heswept awaychallengers insidehis Republican Partyand thenbeat Harris by capitalising on voter concerns about high prices and what Trump claimed,without evidence, was a rise in crime due to illegal immigration.
Harrisdid notspeak tosupporters who had gathered at her alma mater, Howard University. Her campaignco-chair, Cedric Richmond,briefly addressedthe crowdafter midnight,saying Harris would speak publicly later on Wednesday. We still have votes to count, he said.
Republicans won a Senate majority, but neither party appearedtohave anedgeinthe fight for control of the House of Representatives, whereRepublicans now hold a narrow majority Major stockmarkets around the world rallied following
as was his share of women voters, Edison Research exitpoll data shows. Trump also increased his supportin manysuburban areas, where Democrats thought they had made inroads. The shiftcame evenas the Harris campaign insisted that the race was close, and that she was picking up new voters. The US hasgiven us an
HIS WIN WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR US TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES, THE WAR IN UKRAINE, TAXES AND IMMIGRATION
Trump s victory andthe dollar wasset forits biggestone-day jump since 2020.
Voters identifiedjobs andthe economy asthe country s most pressing problem, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinionpolls.
Many Americans remained frustratedby higherpriceseven amidrecord highstockmarkets, fast-growing wagesand low unemployment.
With theadministration of President Joe Biden taking much of the blame,most voters said they trusted Trump more than Harris to address the issue.
Hispanics,who aretraditionally Democratic voters, and lower-income householdshit hardest by inflationhelped fuel Trump’s electionvictory. His loyal base ofrural, white and non-college educated voters again showed up in force.
TRADE WAR Trump prevailed despite persistentlylow approvalratings.
Impeached twice, he has been criminally indicted four times and found civilly liable for sexual abuse and defamation.In May, Trump was convicted by a New Yorkjury offalsifyingbusiness records to cover up hush money payments to a porn star.
His victory willhave major implications forUS tradeand climatechange policies,thewar inUkraine, Americans taxes and immigration.
His tariffproposals could sparka fiercertrade warwith China and USallies, while his pledges to reduce corporate taxes and implement a spate of new cuts could lead US debt to balloon, economists say.
Trump has promised to launcha massdeportationcampaign targetingimmigrants in the country illegally.
He has saidhe wants the authority to fire public servants heviewsas disloyal.Hisopponents fear he will turn the justice departmentand otherfederal law enforcementagencies into political weaponsto investigate perceived enemies.
Asecond Trumppresidency could drive a bigger wedge between Democrats and Republicans on issues such as race, gender, what and how children aretaught, andreproductive rights Harrisfell shortin her15weeksprint asa candidate,failingto galvaniseenoughsupport to defeat Trumpor to allay voters concernsabout the economy and immigration.
Harrishad warnedthat Trump wanted unchecked presidentialpowerand posedadanger to democracy.
Nearlythree-quarters ofvoters say US democracy is under threat, according to Edison Research exit polls, underscoring thepolarisation ina nation wheredivisions haveonly grownstarker duringafiercely competitive race. Trump rana campaigncharacterisedby apocalypticlanguage.He calledthe USa garbage can for immigrants, pledged to savethe economy from “obliteration” and cast somerivals asthe enemy within . His diatribes were often aimedat migrants,who hesaid were poisoningthe bloodof the country Trump isonly thesecond
former presidentto wina second term after leaving the White House.The firstwasGrover Cleveland, whoserved two four-yearterms startingin1885 and 1893.
DROPPING OUT
Twomonths afterTrump’s convictionin ahushmoney case,a would-be assassin s bullet grazed his right earduring a July campaign rallyin Pennsylvania, worsening fearsabout political violence. Another assassination attempt was thwarted in September athis Floridagolf course Barely eight daysafter the July shooting, Biden dropped out of therace, finallybowing to weeksof pressurefromhis fellowDemocrats afterapoor performance during his debate withTrump calledintoquestion
his mentalacuity andthe viability of his re-election bid. Biden s decision to step aside turned thecontest intoa sprint, as Harris raced to mount her owncampaign ina matterof weeks, rather than the typical months. Her rise to the top of the ticket re-energised despondent Democrats,and sheraisedmore than $1bn inless than three months while erasingwhat had beena solidTrumplead inopinion polls. Harris financial advantage was partly counteredby the interventionof theworld s richest man,Elon Musk,who pouredmore than$100m intoa super PAC mobilising Trump votersandused hissocialmedia siteX toamplifypro-Trump messaging Asthe campaigndrew toa close, Harrisincreasingly
focusedon warningAmericans about the perils of re-electing Trumpand offeredanolive branch todisaffected Republicans. Shehighlighted remarks from several former Trump officials,including hisformerchief of staff and retired Marine Corps general JohnKelly, who described Trump as a fascist FISSURES Trump s victory will broaden the fissures inUS society,given his false claimsof electionfraud, anti-immigrant rhetoric and demonisation ofhis political opponents, said Alan Abramowitz,a politicalscience professor atEmory University who studies voter behaviour and party politics. Trump has vowed to reshape theexecutive branch,including firing public servants he views as disloyal andusing
enforcement agencies to investigatehis politicalenemies, violatingwhat hasbeen
standing policy of keeping such agencies independent.But duringhis firstterm, Trump s most extremedemands weresometimes stymied byhis own cabinet members Once the 2024vote is certified by Congress on January 6 2025, Trump andhis incoming vice-president, senator JD Vance, are due totake office on inauguration day, January 20. Throughout histwo-year-
to impose a 10% tariff on all imports and to impose a 60% tariff on most imports from China. The latter is the main concern, says Cline. “If these tariffs come into effect, it will reduce the amount of exports from China to the US and potentially lead to higher prices. Despite
Dr Greg Cline.
