Geopolitica Issue 01

GEOPOLITICA Geopolitics | Issue 01 | October 18th, 2021

OPERATION CYCLONE Afghanistan destroyed

Donald Trump: a Political Obituary

A Historical Analysis

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Geopolitics | Issue 01 | October 18th, 2021

From the Editors Welcome to our first number of Geopolitica, we hope you will become a passionate reader and subscriber! Geopolitica was born from the desire to create and use a framework to understand the complex world around us. It's a platform where we will share the most relevant content with the aim to provoke you and inspire you to take action.

In these pages we have tried to create a fil rouge that unifies all stories. We used Samuel Moyr's new book as a concept that we, Editors of this first issue, believe is key to understand, analyse and make sense of the world: humane. If we ask ourselves what is humane and what isn't, we are adding a new level of analysis that could be useful to both the civil society as well as to policy makers. It will instil a new conversation. We start this new issue with two opinion pieces, one on Trump's foreign policy, and one on Afghanistan and US - Operation Cyclone. We will then present you the latest Historical Analysis on the urgent issue of China and Taiwan relations. We conclude with a huge question on how humane are India discriminations on Muslims.

We hope you will enjoy this first new issue of Geopolitica.

Opinion Piece Donald Trump: A Political Obituary Allegra Salvadori

Editors Allegra Salvadori Andrei Stacu Daniël Willem Gabriel Shalabi

Opinion Piece Operation Cyclone Daniël Willem

Historical Analysis David Against Goliath in the 21st Century Daniël Willem

Historical Analysis India, a Muslim Discriminating Nation Gabriel Shalabi

Book Review

Graphic Project Allegra Salvadori Andrei Stacu Daniël Willem Gabriel Shalabi Image Selection Andrei Stacu Daniël Willem Gabriel Shalabi Execution Allegra Salvadori

Operation Cyclone:

The storm whose consequences continue to destroy a nation 40 years on Operation Cyclone.

Opinion Piece

U.S. President Donald Trump departs on the South Lawn of the White House, on December 12, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Al Drago/Getty Images)

United States of America

Donald Trump: A Political Obituary Allegra Salvadori If democracy can survive Trump, the opposite is not true: Donald Trump has not died, but his politics have. And this is his On January 20th, 2021, Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States of America from 2017 to 2021, left the White House. A political era is ending. But will the cultural brutalization that he managed to create, end too?

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Geopolitics | Issue 01 | October 18th, 2021

Trump's political narrative was made up of rhetoric, where ethic and redemption played a key role epitomised by the motto "make America great again". This myth of rebirth not only united the country, but engaged the audience on an emotional level, shaping public opinion, creating consensus. A consensus that allowed him an approach to the truth in an extreme manner, that it confused everyone and made many doubt of the actual state of things. Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement, abolished the Clean Power Plan, imposed a travel ban to deny entry to the United States to citizens of countries with a Muslim majority, convinced America to build a wall on the border with Mexico to stop immigration causing the deaths of many detained by Customs and Border Protection and separating families from their children. Inhuman. Yet true.

Not even the impeachment, that accuses him of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, stopped Donald Trump. He threatened to freeze military aid granted to Kiev in exchange of favouritism to disqualify his Democrat competitor in the next elections.

The narrative used here is that of the conspiracy.

Nobody will forget the Black Lives Matter (movement) following the assassination of George Floyd by the American police, or the killing of Qasem Soleimani.

Donald Trump has fomented racism, white supremacism, nationalism, and religious bigotry.

In an endless pit of errors, Trump’s policy to combat a world pandemic has been to say the least, criminal. Not only he suspended US financing to the WHO, but according to a Lancet commission examining his work, 40% of Covid deaths could have been avoided.

Donald Trump has fomented racism, white supremacism, nationalism, religious bigotry.

He has encouraged violence to an extent that his mandate ended with an insurrection at the Capitol, for which he has been held responsible. His political era is over, and we have great hopes that also his cultural one will end soon.

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Geopolitics | Issue 01 | October 18th, 2021

2017 • Jan 20: Inauguration and America First • Jan 27: Travel ban • April 6: Missile strikes against a Syrian air base, citing President Bashar al-Assad’s suspected use of chemical weapons.

• June 1: Pulls out of Paris climate pact • Aug 8: ‘Fire and fury’ with North Korea • Aug 15: Charlottesville rallies • Dec 6: Recognising Jerusalem • Mr Trump overturns US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

2018 • March 1–April 3: Trade war against China • May 8: Ends Iran nuclear deal • June 12: Trump-Kim Summit 2019 • Jan 25, 2019: Battle over border wall • June 20: Walks back on Iran strike • June 30: Visits North Korea • Oct 26: ISIS chief Baghdadi killed • Dec 18: Impeachment 2020 • Jan 3: Drone strike on Soleimani • March 13: National emergency over Covid-19 • July 6: WHO withdrawal notice • Nov 7: Trump loses re-election bid 2021 • Jan 6: Capitol riot • Jan 13: Second impeachment

Opinion Piece

Mujahideens (Al Drago/Getty Images)

United States of America

Operation Cyclone Daniël Willem

The storm whose consequences continue to destroy a nation 40 years on Operation Cyclone.

In the heat of the cold war, the world was the battlefield for the ideological war between the two superpowers. Most of these battles took place in new and freed countries, but not all. In Afghanistan too, a proxy was fought. This battle took place for many years and ravaged the country.

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In 1978 the communist party took power in Afghanistan with a coup.

Multiple of the very diverse ethnic groups were against this coup and the country plunged into civil war. To ensure the communist coup was successful, the Soviet army marched across the Afghan borders on the 24th of December in 1979. Several mujahideen, insurgence groups, fought against the Soviet invasion. It was in US interest that these mujahideen were successful, even if their chances weren’t looking good. To ensure that the local insurgency groups succeeded, President Carter approved a covert action, resulting in another proxy war with US backed militants. This operation came to be known as Operation Cyclone.

Operation Cyclone consisted out of both armament and monetary support.

Pakistan was the intermediary in this operation, as it was a safe haven for the militant groups. The Pakistani ISI had an important role in distributing the weapons. The interests for the US and Pakistan however were deeply divided.

Seven militant groups, favoured by the ISI, were chosen to receive support. All seven however followed extremist doctrines. Initially the money that these groups received, wasn’t a big amount.

Neither were the weapons that were sent.

At first these were old USSR produced AK-47’s. However the amount grew every year, until it was over $600 million in a single year. The grade of weaponry became newer and more deadly too. The highpoint of this were the US Stinger rockets, capable of taking down Soviet choppers. Not only did the militant groups receive weapons, existing and new fighters received military training.

Operation Cyclone consisted out of both armament and monetary support.

The training and military weapons transformed the mujahideen from a weak nuisance to the USSR, into full on war machines capable of beating a superpower. When the USSR was beaten though, the real problems started. The mujahideen were now well trained and all had their own intentions of controlling Afghanistan. The country plunged into a long and deadly civil war. Eventually the Taliban came out victorious in 1996. Even though the group did not have direct involvement with Operation Cyclone, it originated out of the conflict for which Operation Cyclone is in great part responsible.

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Additionally, many of the fighters who joined the Taliban, had experience with other militant groups. These groups were trained and supplied through Operation Cyclone. The operation was successful in what it was meant to achieve, it ousted the USSR from Afghanistan. It was however not successful in allowing Afghanistan to recover. Because of the choice to fund several opposing mujahideen, the country descended into instability right after the Soviet army left. None of the groups could work together and it resulted in civil war.

When the Taliban gained power in 1996, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was established. In 2001, the war in Afghanistan began again, this time not as a proxy war.

Before the Communist coup, Afghanistan as a country westernized rapidly. Burqa’s were optional and women studying was not an uncommon sight. It could have gone back to that after the war. Due to extremist militant groups gaining massive power, this hope became more of a dream rather than a prospect. Even 40 years later, the country is still in rumble due to the fighting between conservative and extremist groups. The bad execution of Operation Cyclone however is in great part to blame. Had the US tried to unify mujahideen, or support groups that did not follow extremist doctrines and help rebuild Afghanistan, the country might have been very different from what it is now.

Instead, the US abandoned the country and let it fall into chaos.

Historical Analysis

Source: Internazionale

United States of America

David against Goliath in the 21st century Daniël Willem

The international relations between Taiwan and China.

Since its rise to power, China has not shied away from boasting its military power.

Recently, this attitude has been increasingly present around Taiwan. The relationship between China and Taiwan is highly complicated and has created enormous amounts of tension.

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Why is Taiwan important to China? The island is barely bigger than the Netherlands, but is very important to the world economy. It is one of the largest microchip producers and is of vital importance to the continual technologization of the world.

Additionally, for the US it is of great strategic importance. The island is less than 200 kilometres of the Chinese coast, and provides a great outpost for the US. China does not want the US involved in Taiwan for the exact same reason. Chinese intimidations using jets and bombers have risen tremendously the past few months, and probably will rise even further in the future.

Incorporating Taiwan “back” into mainland China, has been on the public agenda for years. Xi Jinping has not excluded the use of force to achieve this end. However, the situation is complicated with the US involvement.

The Taiwan issue is the most important and polarizing issue in the US-China relations. Tensions have been rising so much, that experts on the matter don’t count out armed conflict, even within 10 years, a possibility. Taiwan has had quite the history. First it was settled by Taiwanese Aborigines, then colonized by European powers. After that it was incorporated into the Qing Dynasty for 200 years. In the first Sino Japanese war, Taiwan became part of China. a breakaway province? According to the PCR, Taiwan is the latter. According to Taiwan it is the former, and the PCR is a break away “province”. Why did Mao Zedong and his CCP not incorporate Taiwan too when they took control over mainland China? It was unfortunate timing for the PRC that stopped them.

The Taiwan issue is the most important and polarizing issue in the US-China relations.

The Korean war broke out in early 1950, in which the US took part. It had large amounts of troops in the area, and sent a fleet to patrol the Taiwan strait in order to prevent hostilities. In 1954, the US even signed a treaty, the Mutual Defence Treaty, with Taiwan pledging support in case of an attack. Since the signing of this treaty, the US never dropped its promise of helping out Taiwan.

At first the ROC was seen as the real China. But in 1971, as the PRC grew stronger and wealthier, it gained enough votes for the PRC to replace the ROC in the United Nations. As more countries gained political relations with the PRC, those countries dropped relations with the

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ROC. It made more sense to choose for the PRC, as they were stronger and there was more to gain on the economic front. It has never happened that a country recognized both China’s at the same time, due to the PRC maintaining that Taiwan is just a breakaway province, on the brink of being incorporated again. By signing the Shanghai Communiqué in 1971, the US acknowledged the PCR as the sole legal Chinese government. The US however has kept unofficial ties with Taiwan and has continued supporting with them with military aid, and still does so to this day.

China has not always used military means to intimidate Taiwan, sometimes diplomatic means were used. In the 90’s, representatives of both countries met resulting in the ‘1992 Consensus’. This agreement between the parties is very unclear though. Both parties say that it is an agreement about the two sides of the strait belonging to China. But they disagree about which China it is. Within Taiwan politics, there is also disagreement about what the consensus is about. This agreement thus did not lead to any improvements in the relations between the two countries.

If even a political agreement cannot agree about whether Taiwan is a part of China, a separate country or it is China itself, what does Taiwan itself want? In the past few years, nationalist sentiments are rising in Taiwan. The KMT, the party which calls for closer relations to Beijing and still claims the ROC has sovereignty over the whole of China, has lost the most recent election by a landslide. The current president, Tsai Ing-wen, has taken a fierce stance against Xi Jinping and China. Whereas Xi Jinping has said that Taiwan will be reunited with China sooner or later, Tsai Ing-wen would not budge.

She went against Xi and announced that Taiwan will not bow for China. She has vowed to strengthen the military and keep up the fight against China’s plans of incorporation. Tsai Ingwen promised to protect the free and democratic lifestyle that Taiwanese citizens currently enjoy. China has said that it will reunite Taiwan, with the one nation two systems principle.

However, with the escalating situation in Hong Kong, anti-Chinese sentiment has risen in Taiwan. Hongkong also is governed under the one nation two systems principle, however the Chinese state is encroaching quickly. Hongkong citizens are losing their democratic and free life, and Tsai is afraid this will happen with Taiwan too. Most of the Taiwanese people want to be free and apart from China, and this view is continually becoming more popular in Taiwan. Very recently the Chinese intimidations have taken on a new scale.

China has sent over a hundred fighter jets and bombers into Taiwan its defence zone in only a couple of days. Even though Tsai Ing-wen says that Taiwan will not be intimidated, its military cannot match that of China. China its military has more of everything. That is why the US support is a necessity for Taiwan to remain free from Chinese control. Without the US backing Taiwan, it does not stand a chance. Taiwan has been in a precarious situation for much of its lifespan, but now the situation is at its most dire in decades.

The history between China and Taiwan is

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a complicated one, with no solution to satisfy both parties. China promises the reunification of Taiwan will be peaceful. But it is to be seen whether these are words of earnest, or an empty promise. The US has backed Taiwan since the 1950’s and is not going to stop anytime soon with President Biden at the helm.

It does however leave us to question, how is this going to be resolved? China will not back down from its stance that Taiwan will be reunited, and Taiwan will not back down from their stance that it should be independent. The total unification is part of China its optimistic plans which are to be achieved by 2050. This leads many experts to think the only real solution available is full-scale warfare. It would start a war between two of the worlds superpowers being with possibly devastating results. When this war would happen is something experts have not been able to agree about yet. Some say that it will have happened by 2025, others are more optimistic with a timeframe of up to 20 years. Regardless of what will happen, the position Taiwan finds itself in is a very precarious one with no easy solution. The situation has not been this tense in decades, and it does not look like tensions will cease any time soon.

Historical Analysis

Indians migrating from India to Pakistan and vice-versa during the Partition of India, August 1947. Source: Wikimedia Commons

India

India, a Muslim discriminating nation Gabriel Shalabi

14% of the Indian population is Muslim in a country of 200 million people In the book “Humane: How the United States abandoned peace and reinvented war”, by Samuel Moyn, the biggest focus is on the new way the U.S. wages its wars, in a less deadly way. The United States is conducting war mostly against Muslim nations, that according to them, pose a real threat to global security.

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Nowadays, about 200 million Muslims live in India, representing about 14% of the population. This population is being discriminated against for the sole reason that they are Muslims. Indeed, most right-wing politicians, including India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, have a nationalist way of thinking, and want a Hindu nation, hence excluding other Indian minorities from their plans, including Muslims. In order to make this feeling more accepted by the general population, a sense of Hindu victimehood was brought up. Because of that, policies are being passed that ignore Indian Muslim’s rights, marginalizing them more and more. This grudge against Muslims can be felt in the streets, where they can be assaulted and beat- en up. Detention camps are being built in the Assam region, but N. Modi denies their existence. They are supposedly for foreigners in general but

How did we get there? How and why does India treat Muslims the way it does now, and is there a historical explanation to it? given the geographical proximity of this region to Bangladesh, its purpose might be to detain Muslims. A question that arises from this is how did we get there?

How and why does India treat Muslims the way it does now, and is there a historical explanation to it? It turns out that there is indeed a historical explanation to those tensions that date from when the British gave independence

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to India in 1947. After the British left India in 1947, the Hindu Indians took power since they were a majority in the country. This led to civil unrest, since the Indian Muslims, who constituted a fourth of India’s population at the time (or about 97 million people) wanted to be represented. There already were tensions between the two groups, but the British managed to calm them. After the denial of this request however, the Partition came to existence. The Partition is a huge movement of people (estimates are between 10 and 20 million people) that happened in August 1947.

The Partition led to the crea- tion of a new state, Pakistan, which would be at both extremities of India. Those two regions were where most Muslims used to live. During this massive exodus, Muslims living in In- dia moved to East Pakistan (later known as Bangladesh), and West Pakistan (which is today’s Pakistan), and Hindus moved from those two regions back to India. This was a period of intense violence, where, according to some journalists who were

there at the time , “Gangs of killers set whole villages aflame {...} infants were found literally roasted on spits”, among other atrocities. After seeing why Muslims and Hindus’ relations are so bad, a new question arises. How did Muslims get to this region in the first place? This starts even before Islam came into existence. In the 6th century, Arab traders would al- ready establish trade routes with the Indian sub- continent. When Islam gained popularity, those same traders brought it to this region. They even built a mosque there, during the Prophet (PBUH)’s lifetime. Because trading continued during the Islamic period, Islam also continued spreading thanks to the merchants. In the 7th and 8th centu- ries, at the dawn of Islam, some Muslim conquer- ors managed to get a hold of Sindh, a region that borders Pakistan and India. Muhammad bin Qasim, who led the Muslim army in the region, encountered little to no resistance, and the population generally seemed to voluntarily convert to Islam. This was the first interaction of people from this region with Muslims.

There were other Muslim interactions later, such as the Delhi Sul- tanate, that ruled over the region from 1206 to 1555.

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All in all, the relations between Hindu Indians and Indian Muslims are very conflictual and marked by violence. We saw that those altercations take their roots from the Partition in 1947, but the M u s l i m p r e s e n c e however can be traced back to the 7th century, during the creation of Islam. The case of India’s treatment of Muslims is one among many other. Similar things happen in China, where the Uighurs (Chinese Muslims) are being detained in camps and are being discriminated against. There is also the case of Myanmar, where the Rohingyas (a Muslim minority) are forced to flee the country because of sectarian violence that the national security forces make them suffer. Other cases of Islamophobia can be seen across Europe and the United States, due to the rise of right/extreme-right wing parties. In Syria or Afghanistan, Muslims are being punished and suffer daily by the hand of other Muslims, who have more extreme views on religion. It is the same Muslims that commit those atrocities that mostly come to mind to people when thinking about Muslims. All of this goes to show that the wars that the United States try to make more humane, as said in Samuel Moyn’s book, that mostly target Muslim countries might seem more humane, but only if the focus is on the regions the U.S. is at war with . Since we usually fail to observe the whole picture, we have look at the general context as well as it only adds a layer of suffering and inhumane treatment to a certain group of people who suffer worldwide.

The New Book

by Samuel Moyn is OUT NOW

"smart and provocative"