Urbanisation and Conflicts in North and West Africa
VIOLENCE IS PREDOMINANTLY RURAL
Despite rapid urbanisation, violence has become more rural, particularly in West Africa. More than 40% of all events and fatalities recorded since 2000 occurred in areas with fewer than 300 people per square kilometre. When violence
does occur in urban areas, it is more frequent in small urban agglomerations of less than 100 000 inhabitants than in medium or large urban areas.
Note : Data is available through 30 June 2022
Source : OECD/SWAC (2023), based on ACLED (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.
CÔTE D’IVOIRE 2021-22 10 561 events 0 250 500 km Violent events 1 - 10 11 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 116 2021-22 30 298 fatalities Fatalities 1 - 10 11 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 100 ALGERIA MALI CHAD NIGER NIGERIA MAURITANIA SUDAN LIBYA MOROCCO EGYPT CAMEROON GHANA GUINEA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC TUNISIA SENEGAL BURKINA FASO BENIN SOUTH SUDAN CONGO GABON DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO LIBERIA TOGO SIERRA LEONE GUINEABISSAU GAMBIA EQUATORIAL GUINEA CABO VERDE SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE ALGERIA MOROCCO TUNISIA
in North and West Africa, 2021-22
Violent events
©2023. SWAC/OECD 1 Club SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Secretariat
From 2000-22, rural areas accounted for > 40% of all violent events and fatalities
WEST AFRICA
2012: 70%
NORTH AFRICA
Proportion of violent events in urban areas has decreased over time: 2022: 40%
2012: 80% 2022: < 20%
Violent events and fatalities by demographic categories in North and West Africa, 2000-22
Notes: Data available through 30 June 2022. Under the United Nations definition, cells of 1 500 or more people per square km are classified as urban, those between 300 and 1 499 as semi-urban, and those below 300 are rural (United Nation 2020).
Source : OECD/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2020) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.
©2023. SWAC/OECD 2 Urban Semi−urban Rural 0 Violent events and fatalities (%) 10 20 30 40 45 535 15 25 Demographi c ca te gories Events Fatalities
VIOLENCE IN RURAL AREAS ISOLATES MAJOR CITIES
Violence in rural areas tends to cut off major cities from their hinterlands. Since the mid-2010s, major urban centres such as Niamey, Ouagadougou or Bamako have been surrounded by ever-expanding areas of conflict. Movement and communication between secure areas around these centres has become
increasingly difficult as adjacent rural areas have become zones of profound insecurity. This illustrates the need to better understand the geographical dimension of conflicts. It also highlights the need for policies to consider the local, national, cross-border and regional dimensions of conflict.
Source: OECD/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2020) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.
©2023. SWAC/OECD 3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 Violent events (%) Distance from urban areas (km)
Two-thirds of events occur within 40 km of urban areas
One-third of all violent events take place in urban areas
Violent events by distance from urban areas in North and West Africa, 2000-22
MAJOR HOTSPOTS OF VIOLENCE
5 countries: Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Cameroon and Niger, account for
93% of violent events
in North and West Africa from January 2021 - June 2022.
94% of fatalities
NIGERIA
Nigeria has suffered a series of overlapping conflicts, including the jihadist insurgency led by Boko Haram and the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the Lake Chad
region, violence carried out by armed groups in the Niger River Delta, and communal violence in the middle belt.
From 2021-22, Nigeria alone accounts for:
40% of violent events
51% of fatalities
38% of the population of North and West Africa.
©2023. SWAC/OECD 4
CENTRAL SAHEL
Central Sahel is contending with a Tuareg rebellion and coups d’état in Mali and Burkina Faso. The spread of the Malian insurgency has made Burkina Faso the second most affected country after Nigeria, with violence engulfing most of its border regions. Ouagadougou, the capital, has so far been largely untouched by
violence, although it is relatively close to some of the areas that have been most severely affected. In Niger, violence has remained constant, with the bulk of violent events (45%) and fatalities (63%) now located in the Tillabéri region in the southwest, bordering both Burkina Faso and Mali.
Fatalities in Burkina Faso and neighbouring countries, 2021
Source: OECD/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2020) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.
In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, most violent events have occurred in rural areas. In Mali, for example, more than 80% of violent events in
2022 occurred in rural areas. All three countries show similar trends as they are all facing major jihadist insurgencies.
CÔTE D’IVOIR E NIGE R BURK IN A FASO GHAN A TO GO NIGERI A MA LI Fatalities 1 - 10 11 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 391 04080 km 20 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Wa Po San Leo Reo Kaya Dori Yako Mango Mopti Bawku Yendi Sebba Sebb Gaoua Manga Zorgo Djibo Nouna Bassar Niamey Ayorou Djenne Tamale Boulsa Sapouy Tougan Sikasso Korhogo Banfora Diapaga Bogande Koupela Ziniare Solenzo Orodara Djougou Koutiala Dedougou Tillaberi Tenkodogo Koudougou Diebougou Bolgatanga O Ouuahigouya ahigouya Kombissiri Natitingou Ouagadougou Gorom Gorom m Gorom Fada Ngourma Ferkessedougou Bobo Dioulasso Est Sahel Nord Cascades Hauts- Bassins Bouc le du Mouhoun Centre -Nord Centre -O uest Sud- Ouest Centre -Est Centre -Sud Plateau- Central Centre ©2023. SWAC/OECD 5
In 2021, Jihadist organisations accounted for
80% of rural violence
< 10% of urban violence
Violent events involving select jihadist organisations in North and West Africa, 2007-21
Note : The following organisations are considered: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar Dine, Ansaroul Islam, Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Group for supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Katibat Macina. Under the United Nations (2020) definition, cells of 1 500 or more people per square km are classified as urban, those between 300 and 1 499 as semi-urban and these below 300 as rural.
Source : OECD/SWAC (2023) based on ACLED (2022) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.
©2023. SWAC/OECD 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Violent events (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Rural Semi-urban Urban
THE SPATIAL CONFLICT DYNAMICS INDICATOR (SCDI)
The SCDi maps conflict dynamics across North and West Africa. It measures the intensity and spatial distribution of violent events to identify four different categories. These categories indicate where a conflict is in its overall lifecycle. For example, when violence first emerges, it tends to be clustered and of either high or
Violent events occur closer together than expected
There are more events within a year than expected.
low intensity. When the conflict becomes established, it tends to persist in a clustered/ high-intensity form. As a conflict starts to end, it tends to move from clustered high-intensity to dispersed high-intensity before stopping altogether.
Violent events occur further apart than expected. There are more events within a year than expected.
Violent events occur closer together than expected
There are fewer events within a year than expected.
Violent events occur further apart than expected. There are fewer events within a year than expected.
Clustered high-intensity Dispersed high-intensity Clustered low-intensity Dispersed Low-intensity 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 These conflicts are accelerating Type 1. Clustered high−intensity Type 3. Clustered low−intensity Type 2. Dispersed high−intensity Type 4. Dispersed low−intensity Number of conflict zones These conflicts are intensifying locally These conflicts are beginning or ending These conflicts are lingering ©2023. SWAC/OECD 7
OECD/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available. Number of conflict zones in North and West Africa by type, 1997-2021
Source:
21 countries 22 years 51 000 193 000 fatalities 10 case studies
This report covers: violent events
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An online version of the book Urbanisation and Conflicts in North and West Africa is accessible via www.oecd.org/swac/publications
This work was carried out in co-operation with the University of Florida Sahel Research Group.
The book is part of The West African Studies series, which examines current economic and social issues in West Africa. The full series, along with the West African Working Papers series, is accessible via www.oecd.org/swac/publications
www.oecd.org/swac
https://mapping-africa-transformations.org
West African Studies Urbanisation and Conflicts in Nor th and West Africa Borders and Conflicts in North and West Africa West African Studies Club
©2023. SWAC/OECD 8
SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Secretariat