A KALEIDOSCOPIC VIEW

SHIFTING SANDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

In a conversation with the Synergia Foundation, Mr. Krishnan Srinisavan, former Indian Foreign Secretary discusses the changing geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and beyond.

Q. How do you see the U.S.’ interests in the Middle East evolve, considering that the Biden administration has signaled disengagement from regional conflicts?

A. American interests will remain intact, however much they may withdraw from the region. Mr. Biden may not speak to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia on the telephone. But that does not mean that his interest is any less. In Yemen, for example, he has undertaken to underwrite the Saudis against the Houthis. I presume he is keen to protect oil installations and other assets in Saudi Arabia, but it does not mean that he will allow the Saudis to destroy Yemen in its entirety.

In terms of Israel, the American perspective is clear in that it will not allow any dilution of its support for the legitimate rights of the Israeli government and people. As far as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Gulf States are concerned, the Americans have not withdrawn any of their military from these countries, though we hear rumours from time to time that they will do so in the near future. So I think that their investment in the region remains as strong as ever, though they may not have a publicity-conscious front man like Mr. Jared Kushner to articulate those interests.

There are many who say that once the JCPOA is revived, the Americans might lose a great deal of interest in the Middle East. I do not think that this will be the case. I believe that the revival of the nuclear accord would make no difference to American interests. When you are a superpower, you have global interests, and those global interests will remain. They could be in a magnified or minimised form, but they will always remain.

Q. When do you expect a post oil-world to pan out?

A. Most oil exporting countries are diversifying their economic portfolios by investing in tourism, high technology and even sports. However, considering that the demand for oil remains high and so do the prices, I think that we are in for a slightly longer horizon than earlier anticipated. At the same time, even the most optimistic oil exporters do not expect the current energy consumption patterns to last for more than 50 years. Clean energy is going to be the order of the day.

Q. How do you see the role of Pakistan in the Middle Eastern mosaic, especially in context of its relationship with Iran?

A. I am sure that Pakistan would like to play a more active role in the Middle East. They have always felt that their interests and their destiny lies to the west of Pakistan, not to the east. Their relationship with Saudi Arabia has atrophied to some extent, juxtaposed with India’s own better relationship with the Arab state. Recently, Riyadh had invited an Islamabad general to be in charge of its operations in Yemen, but they declined, maybe because they did not want to get involved in the Shia-Sunni problem. But this might prove to be a long-term disadvantage for them.

On the other hand, the Pakistanis have looked to the Saudis for financial assistance to sort out their budgetary problems. Despite the Saudis being forthcoming, the extent of engagement was lesser than anticipated, driving Pakistan into the hands of the IMF. So, I think that with Saudi Arabia, a key linchpin in the Middle East, Pakistan seems to have lost credibility.

I think their relations with Iran, to the west of Pakistan, is a little more complicated because the Baluchistan problem seems to have emerged again. I would not rule out the possibility that the Balochs get some support from the west, rather than from a person sitting in New Delhi.

Pakistan would like to play a more active role in the Middle East. They have always felt that their interests and their destiny lies to the west of Pakistan, not to the east.

Krishnan Srinivasan, Former Foreign Secretary