Electric Mobility: towards zero emissions by Systematica

Lady Florence Norman, a suffragette, on her motor-scooter, 1916

Electric Mobility: towards zero emissions Electric Mobility: towards zero emissions, 1st Edition Made in Milan by Systematica Srl ÂŠ 2020 Systematica Srl All mobility studies presented in this book are developed by Systematica Srl. All rights reserved. Unauthorised use is prohibited. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without the written permission of Systematica Srl. Systematica Srl Via Lovanio 8 20121 Milan, Italy +39 02 62 31 19 1 www.systematica.net milano@systematica.net ISBN: 978-88-944179-4-4 Graphic design: Parco.studio Printed in Milan in December 2020

Systematica Srl Transport Planning and Mobility Engineering

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Table of Contents

Why E-Mobility? p.4 E-mobility today is mainly about vehicle-technology and battery efficiency ● history of the electrical revolution ● the rise of the electric cars ● why go electric? ● environmental impact Impact on energy & environment Efficiency levels Implications of lithium-ion battery production ● a growth driven by subsidies ● is an e-mobility future possible? ● expected trends and forecasts ● beyond the battery ● in the search for new ways to store energy

Inside E-Mobility p.34 Regional Scale p.36 ● vehicles consumption ● a vision for the world's first and largest zero emission zone

City Scale p.44 ● electric buses as game changers

Electric Buses - Best Practices

Battery Swap Stations

New challenges

Policies & regulations: a global patchwork

Case study: hilly vs flat ● we've talked about vehicles, now let's talk about cities

Way Forward p.106

● e-bikes impact in topography Albena, Bulgaria Bergamo T1, Italy

Masterplan Scale p.66 ● milan innovation district MIND: a testbed to build the city of the future ● new potential uses

Building Scale p.76 ● e-mobility in munich The advantages of mixed-use developments ● parking guidelines ● parking metrics

Micro Scale p.86 ● the urban revolution of lithium batteries ● defining the micro-mobility market New geography of e-micromobility ● micro-mobility patterns ● operating models ● charging modes

In this book we take a look at the electric mobility uprising and how it is poised to change the cities we live in and plan for. Electrifying transport is a lot easier said than done. Equipment producers and operators are not the only ones who face new challenges: an entire industry sector is undergoing a massive technological change and all those involved must come to terms with the teething issues that are typical of secular shifts, such as this one. As we are still in the introductory phase and only recently project scales and production volumes have began ramping up, there is still plenty of uncertainties and doubts to dissipate. Here we attempt to shed light on this rapidly evolving subject, identifying obstacles and highlighting the ways to overcome them as well as the 4

opportunities that may arise along the way. In line with transport planningâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s multifaceted nature, we address this theme dividing the book into focus areas defined by project scale, from regional infrastructure to micro-mobility. The environmental aspect obviously plays an important role throughout the entire discussion, as it is an inseparable component of the electric mobility revolution. In an effort to be as unbiased as possible we look at this delicate and articulate topic with sceptic eyes, boldly questioning even the most widely accepted truths. The future of road transport will undoubtably include more electric vehicles, which will constitute a fundamental element of the sustainable future we are working to build.

E-mobility today is mainly about vehicle-technology and battery efficiency "E-mobility (electric mobility) is a highly connective industry which focuses on serving mobility needs under the aspect of sustainability with a vehicle using a portable energy source and an electric drive that can vary in the degree of electrification." (taken from Holistically Defining E-Mobility: A Modern Approach to Systematic Literature Reviews, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) Regarding e-mobility from a technological, marketoriented and social perspective, this definition helps us to understand e-mobility in a more comprehensible manner. Although this topic seems to be very contemporary, results are still kept atemporal to predict any future expectations as far as possible. Although e-mobility is about to be revolutionized. As a matter of fact, it is considered as a central component of a sustainable and climate-friendly transport network system and for this even more relevant to push forward. Abbreviations and Acronyms BEV - Battery Electric Vehicle BNEF - Bloomberg New Energy Finance CEN - Comité Européen de Normalisation CENELEC - Comité Européen de Normalisation Électrotechnique EV - Electric Vehicle EVCP - Electric Vehicle Charging Point EVSE - Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment ICE - Internal Combustion Engine IEA - International Energy Agency

LCA - Life Cycle Analysis MM - Micromobility OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries PHEV - Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle PV - Photovoltaic SAE - Society of Automotive Engineers SoC - State of Charge TCO - Total Cost of Ownership UITP - Union Internationale des Transports Publics WtW - Well-to-Wheel

History of the Electrical Revolution Given the low penetration of e-vehicles these days, it is hard to believe that electric vehicles were the dominant automobile form in many cities for some time. The beginning of electric mobility dates back to the experiments of the American inventor Thomas Davenport, who in the 1830's had a model of a rail vehicle driven by an electric machine. In 1837 he received the world's first patent for an electric motor. In Paris in 1881, electrical innovation was showcased at the Exposition Internationale d'Électricité (the international exhibition of electricity): a tricycle with an electric motor and battery which could drive as fast as 10 km/h - a speed that was still considered dangerous at the time - was exhibited. Steam power and electricity were the energy that got vehicles rolling in those days. Another milestone in the history of e-mobility came in 1900, first shown at the World Exhibition in Paris: the Lohner Porsche (50 km/h and 50 km range).

A prototype of an electric locomotive, 1901

Thomas Edison, known for his invention of the light bulb, contributed as well with his electric bus in 1915. This concept was quickly developed into bicycles and kick scooters. The earliest record of an electric bicycle prototype dates back to 1895. Launched in 1915, the Autoped had wide appeal, with everyone from suffragettes to postmen using them.

Lohner-Porsche racing car, 1902

Electric motor tandem built by the company Clerc & Pingault, 1900

Edison electric bus, 1915

Foldable motor-scooter, 1916

After the rise of the combustion engine with Henry Ford's Model T, electromobility was pushed aside into a market niche. The mass-produced passenger car fabricated on the assembly line became instead the main mode of transport. As a result some prototypes of electric cars never went on sale. One example was the Amitron of the American Motor Corporation in 1967. This car became famous for models such as the Pacer (80 km/h and 240 km range) which was already following the technological demands familiar to nowadays. Also in the seventies, VW started the project to electrify the Golf. Only in fleet trials the so-called Citystromers were on the road. Interestingly enough, the idea was picked-up again in 2014, when VW released their first electric Golf for the market. A niche in which electric vehicles succeeded was local transport with small vans for the daily delivery of milk bottles in Great Britain and parts of the United States the milk float.

Ford assembly line, 1913

The transport of ice and fish in the ports was largely electrified since the use of combustion engines was not permitted in the market halls.

Golf assembly line at the Wolfsburg factory, 1978. Credits: Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F054863-0011A / Engelbert Reineke / CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wolfsburg, VW Autowerkâ&#x20AC;&#x153;, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/legalcode

Seattle City Light Superintendent Gordon Vickery with prototype electric car, 1973. Credits: Seattle Municipal Archives from Seattle, WA, https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode

Particularly in Germany and Austria, the use of electric vehicles for postal administrations was highly common. Only from the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;90s did electric mobility gain new interest, mainly for the growing air pollution due to the mass distribution of combustion-powered vehicles, and increasing efforts to handle climate change. In 1999, the new icon of the modern wave of e-mobility hits the market: the Tesla Roadster - the first production car from Tesla Motors. The company founded by Elon Musk is currently preparing to revolutionize the world of mobility, just as Apple once revolutionized the tech industry with its Iphone. Electric-Van for the Austrian postal and telegraph administration, 1951. Credits: Ă&#x2013;sterreichische Post- und Telegraphenverwaltung, https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode

Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in Space 2018, with "Spaceman" mannequin by Tesla and SpaceX

The Rise of the Electric Cars Electric cars are not an invention of the 21st century - or the 20th - although they might be associated with the frontier of technological innovation. The first electric car was built in 1884 by Thomas Parker using lead-acid batteries. In the early years of the ‘90s they represented 38% of all circulating vehicles, reaching 33,842 units in 1912. These vehicles prerogative to the higher classes had a max. speed of 20-30 kph and a range around 60 km. Interestingly enough, the main reasons to purchase an electric car at that time were entirely similar to nowadays’: reduced noise, simplicity of use, and improved comfort. The increase in oil prices and the growing environmental concerns are fueling a proper “electric rush” that started in the ‘90s and is now proceeding at full speed.

Electric cars today represent 2.5% of sales and 0.3% of the circulating fleet worldwide, with more than 7.0 million vehicles sold at the end of 2019. 55% of global electric car sales in 2018 happened in China. Sales globally took a downturn in 2019 as a result of the rolling back of incentives from some governments. It is not the first time that EV sales slow down, as it is common for sales to peak right before the ending of subsidies and diminish right after.

The first car to break the 100 kph speed record was electric. Camille Jenatzy did it driving La Jamais Contente, 1899

Slidebox: diffusion of ideas

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

y y s s a e a n n in te om nd anc an e de nad pa wa r C h St a Ja N o r i n g d e r l a a rm w F e C S d K G th ite d Ne ite Un n U PHEV

It a

BEV

Electric car stock (BEV and PHEV) by country, 2018 (in million units) Data source: IEA, Global EV Outlook (2019)

According to Rogers’ definition of the innovations’ adoption rate we are still in the innovators phase. These are individuals with high social status, willing to take risks and capable of absorbing financial failures. The following category is called early adopters. They take more thought through decisions and enjoy a greater influencing power on others. Their decisions influence those of the early majority. The last to be persuaded are the late majority and the laggards, typically more sceptical and prudent. Once the early majority is onboard a mass diffusion can be expected. In the IEA’s best case scenario (EV30@30) this would happen around 2030.

100

40 75

10 0

y y s s a e a n n in te om nd anc an e de nad pa wa m r C h St a Ja N o r i n g d e r l a a r w F e C S d K G th ite d Ne ite Un n U EV Stock Share

It a

Innovators 2.5 %

EV Market Share

Market share %

Early Early Adopters Majority 13.5 % 34 %

Late Majority 34 %

Laggards 16 %

Electric car (EV) stock and market share by country, 2018 (%) Data source: internal calulation based on data from IEA and Statista (2019)

2 1.5

0.5 0 2013 Rest of the World PHEV

2014

2015

Rest of the World BEV

2016

2017

China PHEV

2018 China BEV

New electric car sales (BEV and PHEV) China and the rest of the world 2013-2018 (in million units) Data source: IEA, Global EV Outlook (2019)

Why Go Electric? Common knowledge says electric vehicles are more environmentally friendly by definition. Let’s take a closer look. An electric vehicle is better than its internal combustion counterpart not only because it does not emit pollutants during use, but also (and more importantly) because it is a more efficient system overall. This difference in efficiency resides in the nature of the components that propel the vehicle. A modern internal combustion engine running on gasoline can turn about 30% of the energy contained in the gasoline it is burning into usable workforce. A diesel engine is typically slightly more efficient, operating at about 35% efficiency. These are the highest values achievable by the engine. The actual efficiency in a given moment depends on many factors such as engine speed, throttle and load. In any case the final value will be equal or lower than the ones mentioned above. Electric motors on the other hand yield much greater efficiency, exceeding values as high as 80-85%. This means that given the same amount of energy, an electric vehicle will go twice as far as an ICE vehicle. The reason electric cars don’t provide the same range as gas and diesels lies in the low energy density of the batteries. Much progress has been made in battery technology but we are still far from the density of liquid fuels. After all fossil fuels are the result of enormous amounts of pressure and heat applied to organic material over millions of years, and therefore, contain a lot of potential energy. For reference, gasoline’s energy density is 12,500 Wh/kg, while lithium-ion battery energy density is 240 Wh/kg at best. Consequently, the vehicle will have to mount a very large and heavy battery to the vehicle in order to provide a satisfying driving range. Having said that, the efficiency of an electric vehicle is so much higher that it doesn’t need to load the same amount of energy to travel the same distance. From an energy point of view the most complete comparison between vehicles is the Well-to-Wheel analysis, which considers all energy expenses from the extraction / production of the main energy mean to its utilization. 14

The chain of processes for internal combustion vehicles starts with the extraction and refinement of oil, accounts for transportation, and ends with on-site consumption. All along this sequence of passages there are energy consumptions and inefficiencies that contribute to the final energy conversion rate. This means that even though burning one litre of gasoline always releases the same amount of energy, this is just the last step of a larger process that includes all the expenses that happened upstream, in addition to the inherent losses of combustion engines. Accounting for greater expenses means the overall efficiency will be lower. At the end the Well-to-Wheel efficiency for a combustion car hovers around 15-30%. The element exerting the biggest impact on the final efficiency is the thermal engine onboard the vehicle, with its 30% efficiency, while all other processes have efficiencies in the high '90s. For electric vehicles the reasoning follows the same principle, but applied for electricity. It begins with the power plant’s efficiency, then follows electricity along all of its path: through power lines, transformers, the charger and the battery. Being comprised of mostly electrical equipment the average efficiency of components is generally high, the weakest point being the power plant. The final Well-to-Wheel efficiency for electric vehicles is more or less in line with that of thermal vehicles, ending up between 14% and 37%. The biggest difference between the two systems is that one requires few passages (producing liquid fuels and delivering it) while in the other there are many energy transformations that eat into the overall efficiency. The highest and lowest values differ by quite some margin because of the relatively high degree of uncertainty surrounding the subject. Despite an effort to be as accurate as possible all values in the calculation are averages and assumptions to discount the fact that the same processes may be carried out in different ways across the globe. For example, different nations will produce electricity with different degrees

Internal Combustion Engine

max. (%)

min. (%)

Crude Oil Refinery (Gasoline) Distribution to fuel tank Engine Transimmssion / axle Wheels

0.90 0.99 0.35 0.98

0.85 0.95 0.20 0.95

Total

0.31

0.15

Electric Car

max. (%)

min. (%)

Crude Oil Refinery (fuel oil) Electricity Generation Transmission to wall outlet Battery Charger Battery Motor / Controller Transimmssion / axle Wheels

0.97 0.55 0.92 0.95 0.90 0.90 0.98

0.95 0.33 0.90 0.85 0.75 0.80 0.95

Total

0.37

0.14

How efficient are electric cars Well-to-Wheels? Energy efficiency of different technologies Data source: Politecnico di Milano (2016)

A visual representation of the effects of every step’s efficiency in the transformation chain from energy production / extraction to consumption is offered below. In this comparison, the starting point is crude oil in both cases in order to level the field. At the top, both start with one energy unit, which is set at 100%, while at the bottom, the number that remains is the amount of energy that is actually usable to move the vehicle after all energy losses have been accounted for. Internal Combustion Engine

Well to tank

100%

In the case when an electric vehicle is powered by renewable energy, the efficiency issue becomes somewhat secondary. It’s interesting to notice how losses move upstream in the case of electric vehicles. These are, in fact, considerably more efficient than combustion vehicles, but all that happens before energy is delivered to the vehicle which creates a serious dent in this advantage. Ultimately, leveraging highly optimised industrial processes electric vehicles constitute part of a more efficient energy system overall. This answers the question aren’t electric vehicles just moving pollution from roads to power plants? Technically yes, but they are also reducing it.

Electric Car 100%

Crude Oil

Refinery (Gasoline)

Refinery (fuel oil)

Distribution to fuel tank

Electricity Generation Transmission to wall outlet

Well to tank

of efficiency, depending on the nation’s technological progress. Electric power plant efficiency may be as low as 30% or as high as 60% depending on plant age and thermodynamic cycle. We therefore propose a minimum / maximum scenario to maintain perspective in such a complex task.

Battery Charger 47%

Engine

Battery Motor / Controller

Transimssion / axle

Transimssion / axle 31%

Tank to wheel

89%

37%

Well-to-Wheel efficiency, maximum scenario Data source: Politecnico di Milano (2016)

Environmental Impact The impact of Zero Emission

What’s usually left out is the production of the vehicle and its components. The most popular object of discussion in this regard is the battery. It is widely recognised that producing lithium-ion batteries is highly CO2-intensive. So much that the moment it steps out of a factory an electric vehicle starts at a disadvantage, compared to an equivalent ICE vehicle. This disadvantage is usually recouped during the vehicle’s operational life, thanks to its greater efficiency.

Nonetheless, there is something else to consider: while the pollution of ICE vehicles depends on the machine itself, for EVs it depends on the electricity grid’s energy mix. That is to say what primary sources are used to produce electricity. Renewables are the clear leaders here but fossil fuels still stand a chance provided adequate pollution-limiting strategies are implemented. As a consequence it is crucial to know every nation’s electricity source in order to correctly estimate the environmental impact of an electric vehicle. In China, for example, coal accounts for about two thirds of the total electricity production, an inheritance of a great expansion in the early 2000s. Even though it is investing heavily in clean sources like solar, wind and nuclear, coal firing is destined to maintain an important role in China’s energy supply for several years due to its inexpensive nature, and to some coal plants being recently built. Within the US itself there is great variance among individual states:

Gasoline-only Conventional cars run on gasoline and tend to be dirtier and more expensive to fuel than EVs.

381

grams of CO2e per mile

Plug-in hybrid electric Plug-in hybrids use both gasoline and electricity and can be recharged from an outlet.

286

grams of CO2e per mile

Battery electric Battery electric vehicles run on electricity and are some the cleanest and cheapest cars to drive.

298

grams of CO2e per mile

381

grams of CO2e per mile

177

grams of CO2e per mile

It is common to fall in the simplification “if it doesn’t emit it doesn’t pollute”, but the expression Zero Emission, while true per se, can be misleading. There is no doubt that an all-electric vehicle will produce no emissions during its use, but this doesn’t mean that there are no emissions whatsoever related to that vehicle. This is an obvious statement, but the passage to make it non-obvious is often overlooked.

Average vehicle emissions with Hawaii’s electricity grid

Gasoline-only Conventional cars run on gasoline and tend to be dirtier and more expensive to fuel than EVs. Plug-in hybrid electric Plug-in hybrids use both gasoline and electricity and can be recharged from an outlet. Battery electric Battery electric vehicles run on electricity and are some the cleanest and cheapest cars to drive. Average vehicle emissions with California’s electricity grid Data sources: Union of Concerned Scientists (2019)

for example, California’s electricity grid has a good share of renewables, while Hawaii still relies heavily on fossil fuels. Coal is a big deal in more than just China’s energy system: according to data from the IEA almost half of the world’s electricity is still generated from burning coal. Fighting the spread of the use of coal will be hard, as it is the cheapest source of energy out there. This is of particular importance for developing economies looking for cheap energy and unwilling to implement expensive pollution-limiting systems. Unfortunately, the environmental benefits of electric cars are not always guaranteed. In parts of the world that rely heavily on fossil fuels, particularly strong polluting ones like coal, EVs might emit as much, if not even more, than gasoline cars. Whether this happens or not depends on several unrelated factors (local energy procurement, driving style etc.). In conclusion, electric vehicles are set to bring environmental advantages in the vast majority of cases, but each instance requires validation. The Bottom Line Electric vehicles represent a lower emission alternative to conventional thermal vehicles, but the number of parties involved is high and they all must be kept into account to estimate what the actual benefits amount to. Having said that it is extremely unlikely that an electric car, for example, will pollute more than a combustion counterpart unless it’s charged with a

heavily coal dependant and old grid. In the end it’s up to each and everyone of us to run such background checks before making any heartfelt claims. From WtW to LCA Normally it would be enough to look at the Wellto-Wheels efficiency to have a levelled comparison between vehicles, but the manufacturing of electric vehicles is significantly different from that of ICE vehicles. As a consequence the Well-to-Wheel analysis, while valid from an energy point of view, falls short when trying to estimate emissions. The Life Cycle Analysis is the most comprehensive instrument to compare overall emissions between different types of vehicles, as it considers every aspect of manufacturing, utilization and dismantling. Another name for this type of reasoning is Cradle to Grave. Through a Life Cycle Assessment it is possible to highlight the advantages of electric vehicles in a more complete way. As mentioned above an electric vehicle is, by itself, more efficient than a combustion one, but the building part brings more emissions. Putting the two things together there will be a moment when the total emissions of the two will cross over. The specific crossing point depends on the vehicles being compared and, most of all, on the assumptions made. Some estimates put it at 80,000 km, others at 180,000 or more. The moment in time at which it happens will vary according to user driving habits: intuitively, who drives more kilometres per year will reach it sooner.

600 500

53% reduction

Raw Material Extraction

400 51% reduction

300

Disposal

LCA

200 100 0

Production

Utilization Midsize Gasoline Car Vehicle Manufacturing

Midsize 84-mile BEV

Fullsize Gasoline Car

Operation

Life Cycle Global Warming Emissions (gCO2/mi - grams of CO2e per mile) Data source: Union of Concerned Scientists (2015)

Fullsize 265-mile BEV

Raw Material Transportation / Refining

Distribution on Market

Battery Manufacturing Life Cycle Assessment

Transport Sector's Impact on Energy & Environment The EU is fighting climate change through ambitious policies across its territory and in close cooperation with international partners. The transition to a climateneutral society is both an urgent challenge and an opportunity to build a better future. The 2030 climate and energy framework includes EU-wide targets and policy objectives for the period from 2021 to 2030. The European Council adopted the framework in October 2014. The key targets for 2030 are; at least 40% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), at least 32% share for renewable energy and at least 32.5% improvement in energy efficiency. The targets for renewables and energy efficiency were revised upwards in 2018. Transport sector accounts for 53.4% of global oil consumption and 23% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Road transport including both passenger and freight transport is responsible for 76.5% of oil consumption in the transport sector followed by 11.2% by aviation sector, 10.7% by maritime sector and 1.6% by rail transport. Road sector is also responsible for 73.9% of CO2 emissions of transport sector followed by 10.9% by maritime, 10.6% by aviation sector and 4.6% by rail transport. By 2050, the EU is targeting a 60% cut in transportrelated greenhouse gas emissions versus 1990 levels, and more specifically: no more conventionally-fuelled cars in cities, 40% use of sustainable low carbon fuels in aviation, 40% cut in CO2 emissions from maritime bunker fuels, 50% shift of freight journeys greater than or equal to 300 km from road to rail and to waterborne transport, majority of medium distance travel completed by rail, complete European high-speed rail network, complete trans-European transport network and progress towards zero road transport fatalities. Shifting towards sustainable modes of transport and investing in electrifying the fleet provides governments with possibilities to reach the key climate change targets by reducing emissions and increasing the use of renewable sources of energy.

Global oil consumption ~ 86 MBD

non-energy use 14% other end use 3.0%

industry 7.9% conversio n losses 7.9%

services 2.4% residential 4.8%

Transport oil consumption ~ 46 MBD

Road transport oil consumption ~ 35 MBD

rail 1.6%

heavy-duty vehicles 34%

power & co-generation 6.7%

aviation 11.2% Road 76.5%

light-duty vehicles 66%

Transport 53.4%

marine 10.7%

The transportation sector - the largest consumer of oil Data source: International Energy Agency (2011)

Global anthropogenic emissions ~ 38 Gt CO2

other 77% Transport 23%

Transport emissions ~ 8.8 Gt CO2

Road transport emissions ~ 6.5 Gt CO2

rail 4.6%

heavy-duty vehicles 46.5%

aviation 10.6%

light-duty vehicles 53.5%

Road 73.9% marine 10.9% The transportation sector - a major contributor to global anthropogenic CO2 emissions Data sources: ICCT, Global Transportation Roadmap Model (2014); IPCC, Summary of Policymakers. Climate Change 2014, Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, USA (2014)

Electric Buses Can Reach Efficiency Levels Comparable to Railway Systems Electric mobility is widely considered the future of transportation, and for good reason. But in doing so, let’s not forget that in some realities it has been around for a while, playing a big role in the movement of people in cities. Electric mobility doesn’t only refer to electric buses and cars, but also to the metros and trams in our cities, specially European ones. In Milan, for example, 70% of public transportation is already electric, thanks to an extensive tram and subway network. Tram popularity decreased in the mid 20th century due to it being viewed as an obsolete and more expensive alternative to road transport, but thanks to technological improvements increasing cost efficiency they are now getting back in the limelight as a low emission option for urban transit. Over 1000 km of green-field light rail and tram projects worldwide are expected to open in the next three years. Trolleybuses are experiencing some form of renaissance too: though viewed by some as obsolete they do offer some advantages. If equipped with a small battery they can travel some distance without contact with the catenary and then recharge when the catenary is available. This strategy, called In Motion Charging, greatly increases the flexibility of the system, combining the agility of buses with the zero emissions of trams but without the range issue of battery electric vehicles or the route restrictions of rail. The addition of the aerial line brings a certain visual impact and, therefore, will meet some resistance. The benefits, though, are quite considerable and it would be worth considering its installation at least on the busiest axis. After all electrical wires are common in cities so without exaggeration a small increase would be acceptable to the citizen’s eye. Such systems are currently being employed in Prague, Bergen, Milan and St. Petersburg. According to UITP, trolleybuses have been around for 130 years and there are currently 277 trolley systems in the world. Here we compare different transport modes by the amount of energy required to move one passengerkilometre. It’s interesting to notice that the worst performers in the table are also the lowest occupancy vehicles. Private cars are renown for travelling often 20

with only one passenger, representing an inefficient mean of transport. By contrast, diesel buses, while poor on a l/km basis, fare well when the number of passengers transported is taken into account. Nevertheless the diesel engine, efficient for thermal engines standards, is nowhere near the efficiency of electric motors. E-buses, instead, reap the benefits of both high occupancy and electric traction leading to efficiencies in line with that of rail transport. From a fuel consumption point of view tram and train convoys are incredibly heavy vehicles and as such demand large amounts of energy, but they also carry a lot of people at a time and the metal-on-metal contact is a much more efficient interface than rubber-on-road. This makes rail the most efficient mean of transport. On the other hand rail systems and subway in particular, are very expensive and are limited to the most used axis. It is quite encouraging to have a new transport option that is comparably efficient as rail but certainly not as expensive and infinitely more flexible.

Car (Gasoline)

0.4100

Motorbike

0.2800

Bus (Diesel) Car (Electric)

0.2200 0.1400

Tramway

0.0900

Train

0.0900

Bus (Electric)

0.0900 0.0800

Subway Scooter (Electric) Bike (Electric)

0.0400 0.008

0.0000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.4000

(KWh / p-km) Data sources: EEA (2014), UITP (2013), Böhler-Baedeker and Hüging (2012, p.11), USDOT Highway Statistics (2020), UIC (2017)

900 Grid emission factors for selected countries. The numbers represent the amount of CO2 emitted in the atmosphere as a consequence of the production of 1 kWh of electricity. Knowing these factors is important in order to determine electric vehiclesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; emissions. Drawing universal conclusions and making comparisons is nearly impossible, as vehicle-related emissions depend on unpredictable data such as vehicle age and driving style. As a general estimate the crossover point (where emissions for thermal and electric are aligned) for a medium sized car falls somewhere around 1000 g/kWh. Data source: own calculation based on IEA (2018)

Implications of Lithium-Ion Battery Production The effects of lithium batteries construction on local environments

Second-life and recycling show great potential, but more research is needed

The CO2 emission theme is not the only one that emerges when we look at electric vehicle production. In fact, there is much controversy around the extraction of the materials needed to build lithium ion batteries. The extraction of the rare earth necessary to build the batteries requires vast amounts of water, while the refining of raw materials consumes high loads of energy. In addition, lithium reservoirs are most common in desert climate areas of the planet. Harvesting the mineral, therefore, deprives the local population of a precious resource.

Promising progress is being made not only in the research of new products and technologies, but also in the scope of material recycling. This will be a key step to electrifying transport and effectively allowing it to become the low-impact activity that it is intended to be. As of now used batteries represent more a thing to deal with than an opportunity. The way things are right now the majority of used batteries are thrown away. That means they end up in landfills, where they eventually degrade and leak chemicals into the ground. With mass adoption at the door, the need to shift from a linear economy to a circular one is ever more urgent. A sustainable resource exploitation would avoid unnecessary soil contamination and, at the same time, to obtain more from the same material.

Lithium is extracted in two ways: straight from rock deposits or, more often, from salt plains in the form of brine, which is then left to evaporate in the sun. Both methods involve a non-negligible level of landscape destruction, and cases have been documented of leaks that have injured or depleted part of the local wildlife population. In some cases the affected animals are part of the human food chain, posing health risks to human settlements. The controversy surrounding the mining activity doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t end there: it often takes place in emerging or poor economies where law enforcement is weak, corruption is frequent and worker rights are abused. Several NGOs have been denouncing this issue for years, but with little results. Directly banning the faulty material would not be a solution, because it would simply be redirected to illegal, underground trade. Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s needed is full and credible material traceability, to make sure that it only comes from businesses that respect the desired working standards and ethics.

The cobalt boom: recharging trouble in the Congo

Before even talking about recycling and dismantling there is a whole range of possibilities for used batteries in static storage. They can be employed to smooth out the inconsistencies of renewables like wind and solar PV. Other second life applications could be: auxiliary power for elevators, data centres or entire buildings as well as off-grid domestic systems. Imagination is the limit: battery pack cells can be rearranged to create bigger or smaller packs for any application scale. Alternative applications for second-life batteries are being explored by several companies around the world. Some charger manufacturers are experimenting with a new type of charger with an integrated battery made of second-life cell. This would act as a buffer and allow the charger to withdraw a lower power from the grid while still delivering as needed by the vehicle. These chargers are intended to be used to charge electric buses at line terminuses or during stops, when vehicles require short high-power bursts. To reduce raw material demand itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s possible to turn to strategies such as recycling batteries to obtain fresh material to build new ones. In the best cases it would be desirable to get hold of batteries that maintained about 80% of their original capacity. This would open the door to an interesting second life for batteries, which can continue to be profitable for longer without increasing material demand. The final condition of batteries, though, entirely depends on how they have

Chile’s Salar de Atacama is the world’s largest source of lithium. Credits: NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. November 4, 2018

been used and stored, and is therefore unpredictable. Investors might be reluctant to start projects in which the gear’s state is not constant. Suffice it to say that electric bus makers usually offer five to eight year warranties on their batteries, forecasting that the vehicles will survive the batteries. In other words it is impossible to predetermine when a battery will reach the limit of acceptable performance. There are some realities in the world taking on the challenge of battery recycling who claim they can recover 100% of the lithium in batteries through a low cost method. As of now, though, recycling is complex and brings little to no profit. Only 5% of the world’s batteries are being recycled, compared with a 95%

recyclability. The others are disposed of in landfills. The problem with recycling is that electric cars, unlike ICE cars, are not designed with disassembly in mind. This makes it a lot harder to access and dismantle the components without damaging them. Therefore particular effort goes into developing a system to decouple all the elements which constitute a battery, rendering the whole process highly expensive. Producing lithium-ion batteries requires a number of elements, some of which are scarcely available in nature. This puts more pressure on the need to find a way to recycle the material that has already been extracted.

A Growth Driven by Subsidies All car manufacturers but a few rare exceptions are implementing an electric transition. The biggest ones already have electrified models, mostly hybrid versions of popular models. Many displayed an intention to shift to an all-electric offer, a target generally set for the 2030s. The announced plans are often really ambitious, mentioning sales in the millions within only a handful of years. The switch to electric cars represents the first technological revolution that has been primarily driven by regulation restrictions. The decision to ban internal combustion vehicles (particularly diesels) from city centres is pushing automakers to offer electrified models that can access the restricted area. This behaviour comes in reaction to a shift in public opinion towards more environmentally responsible choices. In Europe the transition is favored by ever stricter emission rules and high fuel prices. Car manufacturers are struggling to meet the emissions goal without resorting to hybrid powertrains. The electric vehicle revolution is shaking up the entire auto industry. Though itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not the first time that such an event has happened in human history, however, it is the first time such a big change is initiated by a variation in public opinion. The growing environmental concerns made the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population more sensible to subjects such as pollution and ecology. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s this change of mindset that ultimately brought governments to enforce new regulation in favour of less polluting vehicles, which in turn led automakers to develop cleaner and more efficient vehicles. Technological progress can only go so far to meet the emission limitations thus car makers have been forced to turn to vehicle electrification. As a result some cities declared that they will ban some or all vehicles running on fossil fuels from the city centres. If they want to maintain access to the city centre, consumers must employ an electric vehicle, and this is where auto makers are moving towards consumer demand. We are reaching the point where EV diffusion is sufficient to start scaling back subsidies in some regions. In the US, for example, some automakers already reached sales volumes that will exclude them 24

from the program, while in China, the whole program is being overhauled. This will be the first test to check if EV sales can hold on without government help and find their own way into the market. This is also a good time to start thinking about what to do when volumes will be too high for incentives to be sustainable. With so much effort put into making electric vehicles widespread, will we be ready when it happens? As of now EVs are enjoying privileges such as bus lane access and free parking. Will they still be that attractive when they will be treated as ordinary cars?

Local jurisdiction

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Taipei New York Barcelona Copenhagen London Amsterdam Paris Berlin Stockholm Vancouver Milan Diesel access restrictions

Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration

ICE access restrictions

ICE sales ban

Local jurisdictions by cities Data source: internal calulation based on data from Global EV Outlook (2018)

The most common and effective policies employed around the world include: •

Bus lane access

Only bus

•

Free access to traffic-restricted zones Only bus

Only bus

•

Free parking

Free charging

Toll-free highway use

Now it's time to transition to a stand-alone market. To make EVs more attractive, local administrations around the world are developing new sets of policies aimed at improving weak areas. The most notable example is the city of Amsterdam, where the local government is installing charging points almost ondemand. Citizens who buy an electric car can make a request and a designated committee will deliberate whether to build a charging nearby the citizen’s home following a predefined decision procedure. In Norway and Iceland the government is actively participating in building the country’s charging infrastructure. These measures created a virtuous cycle that opened the doors to the highest EV shares in the world. Such initiatives, while undoubtedly effective, cannot just be transposed on a different reality. A better way to make use of those good practices would be to use them as examples to generate case-specific solutions. Encouraging the use of electric cars is legitimate, and those who do drive electric should be satisfied and rewarded. Before jumping on the throttle, though, it is useful to look at recent data to take a more commensurate approach. • Future proofing too soon. Providing dedicated parking spots is the most straightforward response to e-mobility, but too much too soon will leave city halls / investors with unused assets. • Public / curbside charging is the key. Statistics say that the majority of EV owners charge at home. What they don’t show is that probably only people with private parking are buying EVs, the others refraining because of the lack of on-street charging. • Highways marginal but crucial. While it is true that most of the world’s population lives in cities, highways must not be forgotten. These are the streets with the highest hourly volume. • Involve residents. Allowing citizens to participate in decision making ensures that proposed solutions fulfill demand in the intended way, and creates stronger community engagement.

Is an E-Mobility Future Possible? According to Elon Musk, â&#x20AC;&#x153;yesâ&#x20AC;&#x153; an e-mobility future is possible. His company, Tesla, has shown in less than 20 years how rapid industries can change - even the automotive industry. In March 2020, Tesla produced the one-millionth electric car, which no other electric car manufacturer has ever managed. But while Ford, Porsche and BMW are trying to catch up, Elon has sent his first electric car, the Tesla Roadster, into the orbit - as a dummy load attached to his space ship Falcon Heavy.

A bold marketing gag, but not too bold for many shareholders of Tesla. For many, the story of Tesla is a story of how to turn a dream into reality; and not just reality for one, but reality for many. A modern understanding of electric mobility became associated with Musk, and one can imagine how he would reframe our initial question: Is a future without e-mobility possible?

Expected Trends and Forecasts The biggest stimulus, outside subsidies, in favour of EV adoption will be the declining battery prices. Battery prices are following a path very similar to the one taken by photovoltaic panels, being initially prohibitive but falling progressively and constantly, thanks to technical progress and increased competition among producers. Given that the battery is the single most expensive part on an electric vehicle this is determining a strictly correlated decrease in vehicle purchase prices. The price per kWh already fell by 85% and is predicted to fall even further. By some estimates the $/kWh ratio should end up in the low 100s to render electric cars economically competitive. It is expected that unsubsidized cost parity will be reached in 2024, and that electric cars will be economically advantageous starting in 2029. The definitive acceleration will likely happen in the mid 2020s, when cost parity without rebates should be achieved. That is more or less the timeframe expected for sales to really kick in and initiate the exponential diffusion of electric cars. Meanwhile, seeing how the momentum has picked up, incentive schemes are being reduced. In China, for example, the subsidy program has been modified in favour of vehicles with longer ranges. This was done with the aim of encouraging progress towards better performing cars, but as a side effect it is stemming purchases in the lower (and cheaper) end of the market. In other nations subsidy programs have been extended, but they are expected to expire within a handful of years, adding an element of uncertainty. Many analyses and forecasts have been made and many more are to come. The results can vary widely and it is hard to get a grasp of when and how fast the revolution will happen. The IEA expects there to be 125 million electric vehicles by 2030, and that number could reach 220 million with more aggressive policies. A remarkable amount but small compared to the 2 billion vehicles forecasted circulating in total in 2030.

The uncertainty, however, is not enough to discourage automakers from committing several billion dollars in investment and commit to changing their business towards electric cars. So far sales have been driven by people buying second or even third cars. When this portion of the market will be saturated it is unclear if the trend will continue with average one-car owners. All EV adoption forecasts have been updated upwards every year as the diffusion progressed faster than expected. Among the reasons advocating for electric mobility there is the concern that oil will eventually run out. This is a well-founded argument: the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy is predominantly reliant on oil products for all sorts of activities from transportation to heating and electricity. At current extraction pace, oil and gas reserves in the world are expected to expire in about fifty years. Before we get to that point, the most likely scenario is one where extracting the last amounts of oil will become too expensive because of difficulty of reach or overly complicated new procedures. This will increase the price of petroleum products to a point where they become unattractive to consumers, and demand will naturally shift towards more economical sources of energy. Alternatives such as biofuels do not seem to have the potential to compensate, so electrification will be somewhat of a forced path on our way to a sustainable future.

Battery Charger

Power Electronics Fuel Storage

Electric Motor

Lightweighting Materials

1000

800

Engine 642

599

Radiator

Matt Howard, â&#x20AC;&#x17E;Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) diagramâ&#x20AC;&#x153;, https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode

540 350

273

209

No clear standards 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Battery pack price (in $/kWh) Note: Prices are a weighted average for BEV and PHEV and energy storage and include both cells and packs. As of 2017, cell prices were around $147/kWh. Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2018)

600

OPEC

400

BNEF 200

IEA

0 2020

2030

Different EV Outlooks (in million units) Data sources: OPEC (2018), BNEF (2018), IEA (2019)

2040

To date a common charging interface among all producers is still missing. As a consequence who wants to purchase an electric vehicle will probably choose to wait until the situation gets clearer for fear of picking the wrong system. For this reason the European Commission emitted a mandate requiring the CEN/ CENELEC to find a unique charging standard for electric vehicles by the end of 2019. Many interested parties (city administrations, transport operators, constructors) considered this deadline too far in the future considering the latest market developments, especially for what concerns electric buses. Work on the development of charger and connector standards is still ongoing. Similar efforts are being undertaken by other standardization bodies such as SAE International, and encouraging progress has been reached, but while waiting for a definitive solutions careful planning is advised since the beginning. Data source: M/533, 12.03.2015

Beyond the Battery Promising Developments in On-Road Charging Electrifying Heavy Transport

Induction Road Charging

Battery power doesn’t suit long-haul heavy transport, but this doesn’t mean that this sector cannot be electrified in some other way. Siemens, for example, is developing an ingenious system to bring electricity to articulated lorries, allowing them to travel electrically in highways, hence cutting consumptions and emissions. The system is called eHighway and consists of a couple of pantographs mounted on the tractor’s roof and a catenary. A sensor will tell if the catenary is present and the pantograph can be raised automatically or manually. In Siemens’s idea the trucks taking advantage of this technology are diesel-electric hybrids, which will use the thermal engine to cover the traits to and from the highway. According to Siemens, implementing this system, vehicle efficiency can be doubled and thousands of euros can be saved each year in fuel costs.

Induction road charging is one of the most promising technologies in electric vehicle charging and, ideally, the one with the greatest advantages. It would allow vehicles to charge automatically and without any sort of visual impact. Some go as far as saying that it will be the key to electric vehicle diffusion.

Highways certainly offer great benefits because of the very long distances, but the eHighway could also be used in other environments such as ports and mines, where vehicles move heavy loads on predictable routes. The presence of the catenary implies a certain visual impact, which might be contested, but it’s still a much cheaper solution than induction wiring integrated in the road surface and allows easy retrofitting of existing infrastructure. One way to approach it would be to view the eHighway as a transition solution to electrify those instances where battery technology is not ready yet. The technology is currently being tested in various locations in Germany, Sweden, Italy and the US. The maximum power available from the line must be shared by all connected vehicles. The more vehicles are connected, the less power each will receive. So far, the system lacks the ability to identify users and measure energy consumption.

While it is simple in concept, it is all but easy in practice. There are several limitations holding this technology back, such as low power transfer, positioning issues and concerns around road wear and maintenance. On top of it all, installation costs are high and delivering power to a fast moving object proved a significant technological challenge. One company claims to have found a way to make this system economically viable. Israel based ElectReon developed a method to install electric coils under the road in as little as one night. If successful, their concept would revolutionize road transport. Electrifying major roadways axes in cities would allow vehicles to be nearly permanently charged. This would be of special relevance for public transport: buses will need smaller batteries, reducing vehicle cost, increasing passenger capacity and cutting charging time to virtually zero. ElectReon is building an experimental 900m track in Gotland, Sweden. The system’s maximum power is 200 kW, and it is capable of identifying users and recording metering values. The total power must be shared among all connected users, questioning whether each will receive enough power when hundreds of vehicles charge at the same time. We’re still far from that condition, however, so developers have time to find a solution to increase and modulate the system’s power delivery.

ElectReon wireless' electric roads in Tel Aviv to charge cars on the go. Credits: ElectReon

Electric road construction. Credits: Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality

In the Search for New Ways to Store Energy The most abundant element in the universe could give us a hand We used to think of electric vehicles as powered by batteries, but this is not the only way to store energy. Hydrogen has been strongly advertised for years by the supporters of the so called hydrogen economy, a concept where hydrogen substitutes fossil fuels for uses such as transportation and heating. The benefits of using hydrogen as an energy vector are considerable: if burned it produces no toxic gases or CO2, but only water vapor, which is also the only by-product of hydrogen fuel cells. Its use in thermal engine, though, is not a good use of this resource: the combustion of one unit of mass would release more energy than a fossil fuel, but because hydrogen is a gas its extremely low density actually leads to an inferior energy release. The use of hydrogen in electric vehicles is a lot more promising. To harness its power fuel cells are used. These are chemical devices that combine stored hydrogen with oxygen from the atmosphere to generate electricity. Fuel cells are a lot more convenient than batteries, as a tank can be filled in a matter of minutes. For this reason hydrogen would be even better suited for long-haul truck use. Being so heavy and needing to travel such long distances, trailer trucks must be equipped with considerably large batteries, in the order of 500 kWh or more. Even with the fastest chargers commercially available it would take hours to replenish an entire charge. Were an electric truck to be equipped with a Hydrogen fuel cell it would only need around 15 minutes to refuel. This makes the case for hydrogen more compelling for trucks. The reason hydrogen is not widely in use already is that producing it requires huge amounts of energy. There are two main processes for that: steam reforming and electrolysis. The former extracts hydrogen from natural gas at high temperature, but the chemical process creates large amounts of CO2, while the latter uses electricity to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen atoms. Hydrogen production through electrolysis would work best with renewable energy, as it wouldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t make much sense to generate electricity to produce hydrogen only to convert it back to electricity. 32

Market overview The fuel cell vehicle market is largely lagging that of battery electric vehicles. In 2018 there were 11,200 fuel cell cars in the world, most of them in the US and Japan, and 381 refuelling stations. Sales are having a hard time picking up momentum for several reasons: vehicle prices are high due to the complex technology and it will take years before they become competitive; the distribution network is far from the level of capillary extension of fossil fuels and this, too, will take its time to fix; lastly thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s an issue with safety: users will be dealing with an extremely flammable gas in high pressure, which makes the refuelling process a delicate moment. The good news is that, focusing on trucks, the refuelling network doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t need to be as pervasive as the regular one. Truck shipping routes are known and predictable, and this makes planning the infrastructure much easier and efficient. The producers leading the trend include legacy names like Toyota, Hyundai and a Volvo-Daimler partnership as well as the startup Nikola. Commercial rollouts are expected beginning in 2021. U.S. 54.7% Japan 25.9% Korea 8.0%

11,200 Fuel Cells Cars

Germany 4.0% France 3.0% China 3.0% Norway 1.0% Others 0.5%

Fuel cell electric cars stock by country, 2018 Data source: Global EV Outlook (2019)

Fuel cells as an energy source can power any type of vehicle, provided an appropriate fitting. As mentioned before, they have an edge over batteries in heavy duty applications. One such use is rail, and some examples of hydrogen powered trains can already be found today. Fuel cells offer the option of running electric on rail routes without electricity supply that would normally be run by diesel locomotives. In the U.K, for example, only 38% of all route kilometres are electrified, and according to a 2019 report by the Railway Industry Association it takes roughly one million euros to electrify one kilometre of track. This makes a compelling case to search for alternatives. Testing is already underway with the HydroFLEX, a retrofitted passenger train developed by a team at the University of Birmingham, which aims to become a commercially viable technology by 2023. Promising results have also been obtained in Germany, where two Alstom Coradia iLint entered regular service following a successful testing period. One train can carry up to 300 people and has a maximum range of 1,000 km. The hydrogen train, or hydrail, was so appreciated that 41 more were ordered. Fuelling up should be easily manageable thanks to clearly organized routes and schedules. Furthermore, in order to encourage customers to adopt the new technology, train manufacturers are developing partnerships with energy infrastructure companies to devise all-in-one packages that include vehicles, maintenance and fuelling services.

Once these operational obstacles have been removed the road is clear for hydrogen trains to become a reality and take share away from diesel trains. While it may not be in the cards at the moment, hydrogen is not out of the picture: important research is being carried out both to improve cell efficiency and reduce dimensions and weight on one side, and to develop more efficient ways to produce hydrogen on the other. The hydrogen economy may never become reality, but in a world where all (or most) of the energy consumed is renewable it surely represent a valid tool for the sustainable future we all look up to. The Strange Case of The Orkney Islands One remarkable example comes from the Orkney Islands, in the north of Scotland. Electricity production there is already entirely renewable (wind, tide and wave) and, instead of switching off power plants, the local administration opted to harvest the extra energy and store it in the form of hydrogen. The power to do this is provided by community-owned wind turbines, which also do much to create jobs and fund local services. The stored hydrogen will be available at a later time for such uses as heating and transport. The project, named BIG HIT (Building Innovative Green Hydrogen Systems in Isolated Territory), is co-funded by the European Union and aims to demonstrate the scalability of this technology and the possibility to replicate it in other isolated or constrained territories.

BIG HIT: Building Innovative Green Hydrogen Island Territories

Focus areas Regional Scale City Scale Masterplan Scale Building Scale Micro Scale

36 44 66 76 86

Regio Scale 36

nal At the regional scale, planning transport accounting for electric mobility adds a whole new dimension to an otherwise well known problem. The new technology brings about new challenges as well as opportunities. In order to fully reap all the benefits achievable on a large scale, it is first necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of the subject. While the aim is a seamless transition to a new system, the reality is that there is a transition phase that must be tackled beforehand in which it is very hard to find the best compromises. 37

Vehicles Consumption A Database for Electricity Demand A fundamental change within the transport sector which is the largest consumer of oil, 53.4% of overall consumption, is essential in order to transition towards a low-carbon economy. Since road transport is responsible for 76.5% of the oil consumption, a wide scale deployment of electric vehicles charged with electricity produced from renewable sources can significantly contribute to the reduction of green house gas emissions and air pollution in long term and improve resource efficiency. In order to meet the extra electricity demand, additional electricity generation infrastructure should be considered on local, regional, and national levels. The diagram is a result of average electricity demand from different data sources for different modes of transport.

Average Electricity Demand for different transport modes (KWh per passenger-Km) Data sources: TUMI, David JC MacKay, Perez-Martinez et al. (2010), UITP

Electric Vehicles Impact on Emissions The green gas house emissions of electric vehicles will continue to be lower than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, but the extent ultimately depends on the power generation sources. Research shows that emissions savings are significantly higher for electric vehicles used in countries where the power generation mix is dominated by low-carbon sources; on the other hand in countries where the power generation mix is dominated by coal, hybrid vehicles have lower emissions than electric vehicles. The diagram is a result of average CO2 emissions from different data sources for different modes of transport.

Average direct operation* CO2 emissions (g/pKm/pass) (* this excludes CO2 emissions for vehicle manufacturing, maintenance, indirect operation, etc.) Data sources: EEA TERM (2014), TUMI

A Vision for the World's First and Largest Zero Emission Zone

The Greater Geneva (Grand Genève) is a vast territory of 2,000 sq Km including the Swiss cantons of Geneva and Vaud, and the French departments of Ain and Haute-Savoie. Composed of the Canton of Geneva, the District of Nyon and the Pôle métropolitain du Genevois français (French part of Greater Geneva), the territory includes 212 municipalities in total, with Geneva being the main city and the heart of the agglomeration. Greater Geneva will have a considerable demographic increase of 500,000 people expected for 2050. The greater Geneva project proposes a scenario for the ecological transition and evolution of urban territories for the Franco-Valdo-Geneva agglomeration by 2050, based on three main pillars of sustainable development, namely the environment, the social and the economy. The Canton of Geneva is a global city, the second most populous in Switzerland and one of the most important financial centers in the world (ranked 15th in the world and 5th in Europe in 2017) with offices and headquarters of international organizations such as UN and Red Cross. There are 34 international organizations, 250 NGOs, headquarters of 130 multinationals, not to mention many highly exportoriented companies located in canton of Geneva. With more than a million inhabitants and over 450,000 jobs, Greater Geneva is one of the most dynamic regions in Europe. Cross-border commute is notable, with high demand in Greater Geneva, mainly from France, predominantly for work purposes. The dynamic labor market of the city / region of Geneva attracts French employees, and, in addition to French commuters, a lot of international officials which are not considered in statistics. Moreover, a considerable number of Swiss citizens who work in Geneva choose to live in France. Hence, the number of cross border commuters using the existing infrastructure is higher than statistics and expected to increase in the future. Current Mobility Infrastructure Currently the transport infrastructure of the Greater Geneva includes: • The Geneva International Airport (Aéroport international de Genève) that is the second largest in Switzerland with catchment of 150 Km and around six million people. • LEMAN Express (Franco-Valdo-Geneva regional express railway network) of 230 km of track linking

France and Switzerland with 45 stops in Grand Geneva and beyond, six lines to and from Coppet, Bellegarde, Evian-les-Bains, Annecy and St-Gervais-les-Bains-Le Fayet, and 40 trains running under the Léman Express brand. The LEMAN Express is inaugurated in 2019 and has interchanges with soft mobility networks and public transport. • The A1 motorway of Switzerland (called Autobahnen in German, autoroutes in French, autostrade in Italian), which is one of the main two and spans 383 km, is the main east-west axis connection from St. Margrethen in north-eastern Switzerland’s canton of St. Gallen through to Geneva in the southwestern part of the country. The modal share of Greater Geneva in 2014 is 48.9% Private Transport, 38.6% Soft Mobility and 12.6% Public Transport. Although the current inauguration of LEMAN network will increase the use of public transport across the Greater Geneva, the integration of soft mobility and MaaS with public transport and unifying the payments system are other efficient and effective strategies to decrease the use of private cars. Today’s Challenges of Mobility Sector Transport sector is a major contributor to climate change by being accountable for 14% of annual GHG emissions and extremely dependent on fossil fuels by being responsible for about two-thirds of global oil consumption. Based on current transport modal share and travel behavior in Greater Geneva, it is estimated that the urban and extra-urban transport sector will be responsible for producing 1,309,897 tons of CO2 per year. If the transport network remains the same and considering, the population increase of 350,000 people by 2040, the sector emissions will increase to 1,752,660 tons per year. Transitioning to a zero-emission transport is a crucial step towards a sustainable future and electrification is an important part of the solution to the challenge of growing transportation sector’s emissions, although the emissions from electricity generation and transmission should also be taken into account to decide whether electrification makes sense in a given location. The main challenge for proposing a new mobility strategy for Greater Geneva is ensuring sustainable and reliable transport solution between all the current and planned urban areas, improve accessibility from and to the city of Geneva, and within each of the urban areas.

Proposed mobility strategies for Greater Geneva ecological transition:

Strategy 1 At international and regional scales Switch to the railway system and alternative electric means at interchange hubs located at strategic points.

Strategy 2 At the Grand GenĂ¨ve scale Provide e-mobility stations within each centrality to allow for shorter inter-connections within the ZEZ.

Strategy 3 At the local scale Plan for soft modes and micro-mobility stations for movements within the centralities.

Mobility Vision The main mobility vision is to make Greater Geneva the first and largest Zero Emission Zone (ZEZ) of the world, where only electric and green vehicles are allowed. The current radial transport infrastructure will be turned into an orbital seamless network of rail and road connecting the current and planned urban polarities of Greater Geneva. In order to minimize the intervention costs and pollutions, the proposal uses the existing infrastructure where possible. The proposed Mobility Loop is an eco-system, which is zero emission, electrified, smart and connected. In addition to the orbital railway network, a seamless electric and smart ring road, dedicated for e-vehicles only, will connect all new urban centralities through highways, and primary and secondary roads. The mobility proposal includes updating the current road infrastructure to a new electric road that works as a wireless charging station to transfer electricity from lane to vehicle batteries. Charging pads that are built into the road are using the electricity from the energy distributer of Future Circular Collider (FCC), a developing design for a higher performance particle collider hosted by CERN and passing underneath Greater Geneva area, and other sustainable sources. Furthermore, e-vehicle charging stations will be available at strategic locations within the loop. Furthermore, the entire loop will become smart and connected. Smart roads are digital networks connecting drivers to the internet, supporting driverless vehicle and providing true connectivity between smart cars and smart cities. The sensors in the roads will detect vehicular traffic and communicate valuable data to emergency services, other vehicles and traffic control centers.

As part of the proposal, the entire fleet of public transport is electrified and interchange hubs are provisioned to facilitate the change to electric public transit, shared and on demand mobility solutions, and active modes of transport. The circular and direct connection between urban centralities reduces the travel time and number of changes between modes, encouraging the shift towards more sustainable modes of transport. The last mile connection solutions are provided at e-mobility hubs for on demand and active modes of transport including personal e-vehicles, e-bike, bikes, e-scooters and similar. Ultimately, implementing the mentioned mobility proposal for Greater Geneva, including defining a ZEZ, electrifying the fleet and encouraging a shift towards alternative and sustainable modes of transport can reduce the CO2 emissions to zero. The table shows a comparison between electricity demand and emissions of different scenarios of transport sector for the year 2040.

Scenarios Today Tomorrow no change Tomorrow full electric

Energy Emissions Consumption (tons CO2 (KWh/day) /day)

Energy Emissions Consumption (tons CO2 (KWh/year) /year)

242,322

3,589

88,447,467

1,309,897

321,883

4,802

117,487,198

1,752,660

3,726,496

1,360,171,203 0

Comparison of electricity demand and emissions in different scenarios of transport sector

Proposed public transport lines for Greater Geneva Rail network Current network Proposed extensions Proposed transit hubs along railway loop Bus network Current network Proposed electric line + stop Optmized frequency Reinforcement bus line+stop Upgrade to electric fleet Optimized frequency

City S 44

cale The urban dimension is the one where it is possible to appreciate the nuances of electric mobility across different transportation systems, whether it is rail-based or roadbased. Electrification of urban transport is an unavoidable step towards the creation of a healthier and more enjoyable environment. The importance of this aspect is underlined by the constant rate of urbanisation. In a world where 68% (World Urbanization Prospects, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2018) of the population lives in cities it is clear that those cannot be the places with the worst air quality. In this chapter we take a look at what challenges urban planners must face when tackling the electrification of transport and what benefits it is possible to reap. 45

Electric Buses as Game Changers Big Gains From Big Vehicles Despite being more expensive, and targeting buyers with less purchase power, electric buses could be the first to reap the benefits of the electrification of road transport, and faster. This is because buses, by nature, consume large amounts of fuel and, therefore, emit significant amounts of pollutants and noise.Â Moreover, by traveling predictable routes and returning to the same depot every day it is much easier to estimate energy needs and provide charging equipment. Electrifying is all but easy, operators face several challenges. First of all it should be noted that itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not about substituting one vehicle type for another, but employing an entirely new, multifaceted transport system. When talking about electric buses, and electric vehicles in general, every aspect of them should be considered from soup to nuts. Not doing so is a common mistake that derives from the familiarity we all have with combustion vehicles. Nonetheless, different vehicles call for a different approach.

When it comes to urban planning this means a considerable shift in the process employed when designing bus routes. It forces all the parties involved to communicate clearly and work in synergy, from the bus manufacturers to the transit operators, from the utilities to the urban planners. Particularly if they will incur in even higher costs associated with high power opportunity charging. The new challenges to be reckoned with include: depot modernization, electricity provision and schedule definition. The depot is a delicate part of the transformation to electric bus fleets. The main concern is how to bring the required electrical power to the vehicles. Considering that charging an e-bus overnight typically involves a 50 kW charger, and that a bus depot can store 100 buses or more, the maximum power drawn from the grid could reach up to 5 MW. This is considerably high for an urban application.

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Peak Load (MW)

Successful operation of electric vehicles requires a change of mindset away from traditional combustion vehicles.

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0

y ev

lt s

s a se ic m er ing Bu i u c ks m d E e ru sa uild 0 M 10 0 E-T Tran d B i 10 ut y m D ra Py

Peak Load Comparison 100 E-Buses charging at the same time would demand 5.0 MW. This is in the same order of magnitude as the peak power demand of the Transamerica Pyramid building, the tallest skyscraper in San Francisco (US) Data source: own calculation based on manufacturer data, National Academies Press (2018)

To give an idea, it is roughly the same power needed to run five thousand microwave ovens simultaneously. The main concern is how to accommodate such a hotspot in a grid that has been built for lower and more scattered loads. City planners should monitor this closely, and make sure that grid overload is avoided. Transport operators should move carefully as well, as high power gear comes with high costs and specific regulatory environments. On top of it operators worry that the electrical equipment will eat up parking space, reducing the capacity of the depot.

in the final result. Setting up a bus schedule turns into an intricate problem, and this has repercussions on the systems’ flexibility. It becomes essential to rely upon specific software solutions that solve the schedule problem given the desired inputs. Fleet management platforms such as ViriCiti and Optibus take the hassle out of the transport operators’ minds so they are free to make all the changes they want without unexpected impacts on the service they provide.

While it is true that electric vehicles have much lower energy costs than the fossil fuel counterparts, transport operators are not benefiting from special electricity fares. As of now the cost of electricity is the same for every city consumer but, considering that transport authorities will consume a large amount, it would be encouraging for them to meet favourable conditions. Particularly if they will incur in even higher costs associated with high power opportunity charging. Rethinking Schedules

Scheduling for efficiency and performance. Credits: Optibus 2020

Another aspect that will be disrupted by the shift to electric propulsion is the bus timetable. Scheduling is no longer arbitrary but has to come to terms with the shortcomings of today’s electric buses. In most cases it is unlikely that a vehicle will be able to complete the day’s running on a single charge, forcing operators to include charging stops into the route plan, either by recalling the bus into the depot or recurring to onsite charging strategies such as terminus top-ups or opportunity charging at designated stops. The reason for the short range lies in both the technical nature of the energy storage system and the approach to it: Li-ion batteries have a low energy density compared to liquid fuels. This means that in order to obtain a significant range out of the vehicle it must be equipped with a large and heavy battery, that in turn will reduce the passenger capacity of the bus. Moreover, it is estimated that the HVAC system draws the same amount of energy as is required to drive the vehicle, thus reducing range by 50%. Last but not least, driver behaviour is gaining more and more attention as a decisive factor in maximizing range. Where in diesel buses the driving style can reduce range by around 3%, by some estimates its share grows up to 30% when it comes to electric buses. For this reason transit operators should put some serious thought into proper driver training and monitoring. The aspects to keep into account are multiple and interconnected: battery dimensions, driving style, charging method and charger placement all play a role 47

Electrifying is a challenging process but it brings benefits in the long term. Purchase prices for electric buses are higher than those for diesel buses, thus making electric bus fleets highly capital-intensive. Upfront costs, though, should not be the object of our focus: electric buses consist of much less moving parts than a diesel bus, and consume a much cheaper fuel. Therefore e-buses pose remarkably lower operating and maintenance costs. This difference in cost is harvested throughout all of the vehicleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s life, and ultimately lead to a lower total cost of ownership. This means that, despite a greater initial financial effort, electric buses have long term cost savings. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) improves significantly as the number of kilometres travelled increases annually, and the savings can reach up to $62,250 per bus.

One way to quantify health benefits of reduced emissions is to use the Cost of Carbon. This is a recently introduced metric, and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the correct value that should be used. Setting the value at $50 per ton of CO2 as a conservative estimate, and accounting for 60,000 kilometres travelled per year, a bus would bring more than $2,500 per year in savings on healthcare costs.

An electric bus can bring savings up to $2,500 per year in healthcare-related costs.

The benefits of electric buses donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t end there. By reducing harmful emissions within the urban environment, an electric bus fleet will also improve citizensâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; health, which in turn brings further economic benefits in the form of lower medical expenses and less workdays missed due to illness.

2,500,000.00

2,000,000.00

1,500,000.00

1,000,000.00

500,000.00

2020

2035 Electric

Diesel

Capital and Operating Costs Comparison Between Diesel and Electric ($ per bus in the year 2020 / 2035) Data source: own calculation based on manufacturer data

When considering funding strategies different solutions can be exploited in order to finance the implementation of an electric bus scheme. Upfront purchase: Buses and the relative infrastructure and equipment can be bought through direct purchase, but this strategy requires large amounts of available capital. Leasing: To avoid high purchase costs, a leasing contract can be stipulated with the bus manufacturer. It may concern leasing the entire vehicle or just the batteries. Example: Park City (Utah, US) bought six buses from Proterra but leased the batteries. This allowed the city to reduce risks concerning battery longevity and replacement. Subsidies and incentives: Seeking for government subsidies: a good way to alleviate monetary burden is to apply for institutional grants and incentives. Example: the city of Shenzhen (China) was able to electrify all of its fleet thanks to state and regional subsidies that absorbed half of the cost of buses.

How to take care of your electric bus To maximize battery life • • • • •

SoC should remain between 20-80% Optimal average State of Charge (SoC) is 50% Keep Depth of Discharge (DoD) as restrained as possible Charging power should be the lowest possible, according to needs Ideal temperature range is 15-30 °C

Driver behaviour • • •

Promote predictive driving and hypermiling Demand-responsive climatization

Charging: • •

Smart charging Refine schedule programming

Electric Buses - Best Practices A large number of projects have been carried out in the world, with some more successful than others. Some of them really stand out for innovation, project dimensions - or a combination of the above. TOSA Project in Geneva: the first inverted pantograph charging system trial. The TOSA project is a concept with the aim to experiment with the feasibility of using a bus with small batteries associated to an ultra fast charging system. Flash charging is employed at selected bus stops, in addition to medium-fast at the terminus and slow at the depot. The bus mounts a 73 kWh battery, weighing a ton, which with a saving of five to seven tons compared to the bigger batteries usually mounted on e-buses. This weight saving allows to carry more passengers onboard. The line entered service in the spring of 2018 on the route linking Geneva airport to Palexpo.

TOSA Energy Transfer System. Credits: Olivier.auge, â&#x20AC;&#x17E;Tosa ets palexpoâ&#x20AC;&#x153;, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/legalcode

Charging at the stop happens through an inverted pantograph during the time necessary to load and unload passengers, around 20 seconds, at a power around 400-600 kW. The electrical connection happens automatically in less than a second, ensuring a seamless vehicle operation. The example has been followed by the city of Nantes, which ordered 20 such buses. It is estimated that Line 4 capacity will be increased by 35%, bringing it to 2,500 passengers per hour. The new buses are 24 metres long with double articulation.

Shenzhen - First all-electric urban bus fleet. The city of Shenzhen set itself as the clear leader in electrification of public transport in 2017 when it completed the transition of all its bus fleet, consisting of 16,359 units, to electric. This impressive feat was obtained by merging all local transport operators into three companies and, most of all, thanks to state, regional and city subsidies that amounted to half of the busesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; cost. Since then Shenzhen stands as the paradigm to which many other cities of the world aspire. Following Shenzhenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s example, Beijing wants to have 10,000 electric buses before the end of 2020, up from 1,320 it had in 2018. The city began the electrification process in 2013 converting some bus lines from diesel to bimodal trolleybuses, and in 2015 there were 928. Other important cases in China include the cities of Harbin, which reached 1,346 electric buses in 2017, and Zhuhai, that has 491 and aims for 100% electric by the end of 2019. Not by chance deadlines fall within 2020: it is the year Chinese national subsidies will end. As a consequence almost all electrification plans are scheduled for completion by 2020.

16,000

12,000

8,000

4,000

2012 2012

2013 2013

2014 2014

2015 2015

2016 2016

2017 2017

Shenzen electrification process Data source: Shenzen Urban Transport Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd (2018)

Electrification of vehicles is another sign of global energy transition. The City of Shenzhen, China has replaced its entire bus fleet with 16,359 electric buses. Credits: SolarPVTV

ZeEUS Project - The EUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s effort to kickstart knowhow and innovation. The most important European electric bus project, ZeEUS consists of a 40-participant consortium with a budget in excess of 22 million euros, 13.5 of which co-funded by the European Commission. The program lasted 54 months, from November 2013 to April 2018, and has the aim to test electrification solutions in the heart of urban systems through direct demonstrations and to facilitate the entrance of electric buses in the European market. The results of the report holds significant value for city planners and transport operators: it turns out that charging at the terminus maximizes vehicle utilization. Construction will require time (1.5 years on average) and should be planned in advance. In addition, driver training is essential to reap all the benefits of the new technology, and should be carried out in time in order to have the staff ready when deliveries begin.

The distance travelled by ZeEUS buses running in pure electric mode.

COof2 diesel The amount fuel saved by the ZeEUS bus project.

Data source: ZeEUS (2017)

CO2

Stockholm (Sweden)

Warsaw (Poland)

Eindhoven (Netherlands)

London (UK)

MĂźnster (Germany) Bonn (Germany) Pilsen (Czech Republic)

Paris (France)

Barcelona (Spain)

Cagliari (Italy)

The amount of carbon dioxide emissions prevented by the ZeEUS bus project.

CO2

Santiago de Chile and Bogotà World’s largest bus fleets outside China. South America is establishing itself as one of the leaders in electric bus fleets. While the first place clearly belongs to China, by a wide margin, South America sits comfortably in second place, with a total fleet size in the hundreds. Santiago de Chile began its electrification plans with a batch of 200 electric buses in 2018 and subsequently ordered 183 further buses. In 2019 the city of Bogotá ordered 379 electric buses from BYD. In addition to the 64 ordered by Medellìn, this contributes to create the largest fleet of the continent with a total of 443 units. For comparison, the largest electric bus order by the US so far is a 130-vehicle order by the Los Angeles Department of Transport in November 2019. Chinese electric buses on the road in Latin America 2019 Data source: IEA, The Brazilian Report, CAF, Xinhuanet (all 2019)

Medellín Cali

Guayaquil

Santiago

200

Medellín

Cali

Guayaquil Sao Paulo Buenos Aires

Sao Paulo

20 15 8

Santiago Buenos Aires

Electrifying a Bus Fleet Takes Transport Planning to Another Level, Bringing Up New Challenges To plan for the electrification of public bus lines we developed a toolbox that would work across all sorts of route layout. Methodology The calculation is based on two main features, route length and elevation, which was possible to obtain using GIS software. Then, data concerning operations (e.g runs per day, frequencies, daily distance travelled) has been provided by the transport operator. Consumptions due to linear trip and elevation are calculated separately and then summed. For the linear part an average electric bus fuel economy is used, while the energy spent to overcome elevation was calculated as the difference in gravitational potential energy. Because gravitational potential energy is a conservative field and due to the presence of regenerative braking, one might be tempted to assume that all energy spent uphill is recouped in the downhill phase. Unfortunately this is not the case, as there are several losses and inefficiencies. Moreover, regenerative braking only happens if certain criteria regarding vehicle speed, braking intensity and battery state of charge are met. In our calculation the recovered energy is calculated as a fixed quota of the potential energy that could be harvested. Particular attention is put on containing overall vehicle mass in order to maximise efficiency and passenger capacity. It is important to note that vehicle mass is the parameter exerting the most influence on consumption. For this reason dimensioning batteries appropriately is crucial. The bus shall mount a battery big enough to complete its duty but not so big that it excessively increases weight. A bigger than necessary battery is just dead weight reducing bus capacity. At the same time it would be desirable to give the vehicle a margin of safety for two reasons: one is to give the bus the ability to deal with unexpected events, the other is to avoid getting close to 0% of battery charge. As a general rule, to preserve battery life, it is better to stay away from extremes (both 0% and 100%). We ran the calculation for both overnight charging at the depot and opportunity charging at the terminus, 54

Our Toolbox at a Glance Hypotheses: • • • • •

Electric motor efficiency: 0.9 Battery efficiency: 0.98 Overall efficiency: 0.88 Breaking/downhill energy recovery: 20% Line service: 300 days per year

Input data: • • • • • • • •

Nominal vehicle consumption in kWh/km Vehicle mass Distance travelled in a round trip Distance travelled in a day Route elevation difference Single vehicle cost Electricity cost Required frequency and capacity

Exclusions: • • • • • •

Maintenance costs Battery substitution costs Personnel costs Insurance, damage coverage and civil liability Interest rates, inflation and discount rate

Results: • • • •

Battery pack dimension Number of buses to be purchased in order to maintain same level of service Annual energetic consumption and related costs Cost forecast

and the simulation has been carried out in five scenarios representing different passenger loads. To determine fleet dimension, the maximum number of buses circulating during peak time was taken as a starting point. The simulation would tell whether that is enough to operate the line. The results hereby presented refer to the most demanding case with a 100% passenger load. All data and results are summarized in the next page. The tool also runs a preliminary financial analysis, in which fixed costs are made up of vehicle purchase costs, while the operational costs consist of electricity fees. Different tariffs have been considered for the high-power opportunity charging and the low-power depot charging. The calculation, while lacking the details to make a complete financial case, is sufficient to get a general idea of the order of magnitude of the operation. Results As a case study we applied our tool to two bus lines, one with high elevation and one mostly flat, to highlight how big an impact local topography has on energy consumption. For that purpose we applied our tool to two bus lines running in the city of Genova, where there is a good combination of flat and hilly landscape. According to our calculations it turns out that a hilly layout leads to an increase in consumption up to 58% on a kWh/km base. From the comparison between depot and opportunity it emerged that both lines could be covered with electric buses in depot charging configuration, without the need to purchase extra vehicles. 55

hilly

Case Study:

Line 40

terminal stop Costanzi (teminal stop) Brignole FS (terminal stop) Brignole FS (teminal stop) Costanzi (terminal stop)

Vehicle weight (kg) Vehicle capacity (pax) Energy recovery during braking Theoretical bus fuel economy kWh/km Route length (Return trip, km) Average operating speed (km/h) Terminus layover (min.) Depot to terminus distance (km) Elevation Difference (m) Actual fuel economy (kWh/km) Return trip consumption (kWh) Battery capacity (kWh)

Depot

Opportunity

18,000 80 20% 1.5 14.55 13.88 9.5 4.5 276 2.7 39.5 220

15,200 80 20% 1.5 1 4.55 13.88 9.5 4.5 276 2.5 36.1 80

250 200 150 50 0

00 150150 300300 450450 600600 750750 900900 1050 1050 1200 1200 1350 1350 1500 1500 1650 1650 1800 1800 1950 1950 2100 2100 2250 2250 2400 2400 2550 2550 2700 2700 2850 2850 3000 3000 3150 3150 3300 3300 3450 3450 3600 3600 3750 3750 3900 3900 4050 4050 4200 4200 4350 4350 4500 4500 4650 4650 4800 4800 4950 4950 5100 5100 5250 5250 5400 5400 5550 5550 5700 5700 5850 5850 6000 6000 6150 6150 6300 6300 6450 6450 6600 6600 6750 6750 6900 6900 7050 7050 7200 7200 7350 7350 7500 7500

100

Elevation (m) 100 80 60 40

SOC hilly Line (%)

A hilly layout leads to an increase consumption up to 58%. 56

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terminal stop

Donghi - XXSettembre

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We've Talked About Vehicles, Now Let's Talk About Cities

Taking the conversation to a broader level we expanded the scope of the analysis to an entire urban environment. As a testbed for this study we designated the city of Milan. Taking advantage of comprehensive data from our transport models we ran a simulation to estimate the practical implications of a complete public transport fleet electrification along with a growing share of private electric vehicles on the roads over a fifteen years timeframe. The situation presented is a â&#x20AC;&#x153;now and thenâ&#x20AC;? scenario in which we compare two portraits of the same city at different points in time. 58

Our focus is on the environmental aspect of the electrifying process, with an eye on the consequences for the urban realm. In particular we are looking at CO2 emission reduction and an attempt at monetizing the deriving benefits. Because expressing environmental benefits in terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide is far from the average personâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s imagination, this last step acts as a middleman in the process of translating a seemingly abstract concept into something easier to visualise. Milanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s public transport network already enjoys a significant amount of electrification. As of now, thanks to four subway lines and tens of tram lines, 70% (ATM, 2017) of passenger movement is currently electric.

Now all attention is focusing on the bus fleet, the only non-electric piece of the puzzle, with the local transport operator, ATM, going through a complete overhaul of its road vehicles. It aims to only operate electric buses, and therefore operate 100% electric, by 2030. The first steps have already been taken, with 50 battery electric buses on the road, new generation trolleybuses being delivered and orders in place to complete the rest of the fleet. The aim is to provide Milanese citizens with a cleaner and quieter means of transport. To top it all off, the company is buying solely renewable electricity.

Modello di traffico di Milano I flussogramma di assegnazione - finestra di punta del mattino

Flusso > 1500 [veh/h] Flusso > 1000 e < 1500 [veh/h] Flusso > 500 e < 1000 [veh/h] Flusso < 500 [veh/h]

Flow rate > 1500 [veh/h] Flow rate > 1000 [veh/h] Flow rate >500 [veh/h] Flow rate <500 [veh/h] Milan traffic model, traffic flow chart Morning peak

A wide adoption level across the entire city unlocks tangible benefits for the residing population Regarding the private vehicle fleet, considering the extreme complexity of the subject, making predictions is a considerably tough challenge, and one that lies outside of the purpose of this book. We therefore rely upon the findings published in the E-Mobility Report 2018 by Politecnico di Milano Energy & Strategy Group. In line with the report, the results presented are divided in Low, Base and High adoption cases. This not only underlines the variability of possible future scenarios, but also highlights how big an impact each scenario can have. The distinction only applies to private vehicles, as the public bus fleet will be completely electric in the reference timeframe. Once completed, the transition will bring considerable improvements in air and life quality for both the humans and wildlife that inhabit the city. According to our estimates the move will bring a reduction in CO2 emissions that spans from a minimum of 27% in the low adoption scenario to a maximum of 36% in the high adoption case. These correspond to roughly 472 and 626 thousand tons of carbon dioxide, respectively. For comparison, the electric bus fleet brings about the same benefits as those of 10,000 cars. Considering that Milanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s private vehicles amount to almost 2 million, this shows just how important it is not to limit electrification efforts to public fleets only, but to encourage private uptake as well.

Monetizing these findings is another particularly complex task. What makes the subject especially complicated is the dependence on several unrelated factors and the absence of a common procedure worldwide. For this study, we set the cost of carbon at 55 $/ton as indicated in an interagency research published by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This is the value thereby presented for a 2035 projection at a 3% discount rate and expressed in 2007 dollars. We did not account for inflation. The environmental benefits so calculated fall in a range between 26 and 34 million euros per year for the Low and High scenarios respectively. This is just a material representation of the indirect effect of atmospheric pollution. This data should be interpreted as a way to quantify the climate impacts of rule-makings, particularly in the scope of cost-benefits analysis.

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200,000

2020

Non-EV Cars

2035 Low Adoption EV Cars

Traffic CO2 Emissions Per Year (in tons)

2035 Base Case Non-EV Buses

2035 High Adoption EV Buses

2035 Low Adoption

2035 Base Case

Cars

Environmental Benefits Per Year (in million dollars)

2035 High Adoption Buses

Another “collateral” effect of electrification is the displacement of large amounts of fuel. Running on electricity, vehicles will no longer burn anything at all and, being electricity far cheaper than fuel, this will bring considerable monetary savings for electric vehicle owners. Unlike environmental costs this is money that actually goes into people’s pockets, or at least doesn’t go out. In this study the overall amount of fuel saved amounts to 98 million litres in the low scenario and more than 340 million in the high scenario. Apart from the environmental and financial advantages, the electrification of transport will reduce a city’s or country's dependence on fossil fuels, thus bringing it closer to energy independence. Such a remark is especially meaningful for a country like Italy, which is heavily reliant on foreign import to meet its energy needs.

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2035 Low Adoption Cars

2035 Base Case

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Litres of Fuel Saved Per Year (in million units)

E-Bikes Impact on Topography Albena, Bulgaria

Nomad beach Bridge beach

Arabella beach

Kaliakra beach

Baltata Reserve

Albena Resort

Paradise Blue beach

Black Seaside

Kaliopa beach

Baltata Reserve

Albena resort is located on the Black Sea and it is characterized by a series of hotels surrounded by a lush, hilly, and natural environment. The resort is currently going through an ambitious redevelopment plan to reduce the vehicle traffic and make more room for pedestrian areas and other activities. Within this framework, e-bikes will play a crucial role to maximize internal connectivity and allow all tourists to reach the seaside from their hotel within a 3-minute ride. 62

Flamingo beach

Laguna Garden beach Slope Network 0.00 0.0-2.0

Magnolia beach

Nona beach

2.0-8.0 8.0-15.0 15.0-30.0

Provide fleet of electric bikes Traditional bikes vs. assisted bike (e-bikes)

Albena resort, Bulgaria. Credits: Boby Dimitrov from Sofia, Bulgaria, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode

Bergamo T1, Italy

Coupling e-bikes with mass transit systems unlocks the potential of a territory to increase the overall accessibility levels of public transport without necessarily investing in expensive infrastructure with high impact on the landscape and on the existing urban context. This is the case of Bergamo, where the introduction of series of e-bikes docking stations at all T1 tramway stops would significantly increase the amount of covered population within a 15-minute ride from the key transit corridor. 64

Albino Station Albino-Carrefour Station Cene Station Gazzaniga Station Gazzaniga Centrale Station Fiorano Station Vertova Station

Albino Station

Albino-Carrefour Station Cene Station

Albino Station Albino-Carrefour Station Cene Station Gazzaniga Station Gazzaniga Centrale Station Fiorano Station Vertova Station

Fiorano Station

Gazzaniga Station Gazzaniga Centrale Station

Vertova Station

15 minutes

10 minutes

Residents

5 minutes

Accessibility Analysis

Employees

E- Bike accessibility

E-Bike accessibility Extension stops of Tramway Line T1 Albino - Vertova

Costa Vadassa

Nespello

Trinità Tassone Alto Sant'Erasmo

15 MIN

La Corna Forcellino Donadoni Val Dè Grü

Tassone Basso Ca' Girolami Trafficanti

Colzate Serio

Barzizza Casnigo

Valle Gaggio

Cazzano Sant'Andrea Vertova

Stazione Vertova

Dossello Coldrè Orezzo Località Rocliscione Catabione

Semonte

Gromplà Masserini

15 MIN

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Cà de Spì

Rigosa

Fiorano al Serio

Aviatico località Plaz Gazzaniga

Stalle Val Gru

Cantul

Ganda

Rova

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Montebeio

Camocco

Vallogno Ama

Stalle Predalada

Stazione Gazzaniga Centrale

Amora

Merano

Stazione Cene Cene

Monte Croce

Selvino

Cedrello Pian della Loera

Bondo Petello

Stazione Albino - Carrefour

Prati di Altinello

Il Triblino Desenzano al Serio

Vall'alta Vall'Alta

Albino

Piano

Stazione Albino

Piazza Canterina

Gaverina Terme

Porchera Berlino Stalle Fiobbio

Gotti-Gavazzuolo Dossello Abbazia

Pradalunga

Stalla di Cura

Casale Faisecco

At the masterplan level, mobility solutions can be tailored to the projectâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s specific needs. New urban districts become the perfect testbeds to investigate feasibility and cost / benefits deriving from innovations such as electric and autonomous systems. This opens the way of creating individual opportunities within the city which will shed some light on future developments. The masterplan dimension allows for work to be concentrated on circumscribed areas with a greater level of detail. Compared to the city scale, the reduced project scope presents fewer variables and makes it possible to develop more accurate traffic models. 67

Milan Innovation District

Milano Innovation District (MIND) is one of the most important European urban regeneration projects, a new urban polarity of Milan of around 1 million sqm of total GFA - at full development capacity - and 460,000 sqm of public parks, mainly focused on science, research and technology and is envisaged to become one of the most disruptive international hubs of innovation. From the urban perspective, one of the main aspirations of MIND is to explore and test future models of living as well as future paradigms of moving, being mobility in fact the dimension that better explains the functioning mechanism of our cities and the internal relations underneath. With this respect, MIND is planned to act as an international testbed of the most disruptive and pioneering technologies and solutions on mobility. To this end, a key challenge to tackle is to convert a visitor-oriented site, that is a site designed for Expo 2015, to a community-based district, made by a large variety of permanent uses. 68

The MIND mobility plan gravitates around the principles of walkable user-centric development and it is shaped by an effective Mobility as a Service (MaaS) model, including the provision of demand-responsive systems, intelligent cognitive infrastructures and future proofing-adaptive transport assets. With this respect, electric mobility represents the central dimension of the overall mobility concept of MIND, especially as far as all internal transport services are concerned: in fact, all internal public transport services, on-demand services, micromobility solutions and lastmile logistics systems are designed to be operated by e-mobility solutions. Moreover, the zero-emission mobility model is further promoted for the multi-modal accessibility at larger scale through a well-dimensioned recharging equipment at both private and public car parking as well as specific facilities for external e-bus services, reinforcing the gradual shift of traditional public transport services to electric solutions. Driverless Car, Personal Rapid Transit

All images ÂŠ CRA Carlo Ratti Associati

MIND: A Testbed to Build the City of the Future Where shared and autonomous mobility reduces the need for private vehicles As a leading example of a sustainable ecosystem, a thorough evaluation of the environmental impact is at the core of the context of MIND. An accurate estimate of the number of vehicles in circulation and the average distance they travel is generated on the basis of a full-fledged transport modelling exercise. In fact, the environmental assessment is based on the difference in emission factors for every unit of distance travelled. Internal and peripheral circulation have been analysed separately, as well as private and public transport. More specifically, the evolution of public transport is divided into two parts: first an autonomous shuttle is introduced, increasing fleet and/or frequency every year up to 2024. From then on, the fleet still increases over time, but the overall annual vehicle-kilometres are almost unchanged. For this reason, emission levels associated to this mean of transport remain flat in the following years due to capacity constraints. The second operational phase begins from that time horizon with the introduction of an additional circular public transport line running on a loop system around MIND, increasing the level of service through the years as local mobility demand grows. Concerning vehicle type, a full electric fleet has been considered for both the internal autonomous service and the external bus line. For the circular line, traffic data is discerned into peak and off-peak, and the two contributions are summed.

When it comes to private transport a much wider vehicle population sample is taken into consideration, and making assumptions becomes a crucial step. Thus, many studies have been published in recent years, as the subject is under constant scrutiny. Projection data about EV share evolution are based on findings from the E-Mobility Report 2018 published by Politecnico di Milano Energy & Strategy Group. Because this is such a hard topic to predict, a division into low, moderate and accelerated scenarios is maintained in order to gain a wider perspective. The resulting EV adoption rates for the next ten years have been applied to the transport model. As a result of traffic simulations, the amount of CO2 that can be spared from the atmosphere thanks to the electrification of transport is estimated and reported in the charts. The data is divided into internal and external movements to highlight the contribution of each.

600,00 600 500 500,00

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external E-Bus (circle line)

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autonomous shuttle

200,00 200 100 100,00 -

2022 2022

2024 2024

2025 2025

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2028 2028

2029 2029

CO2 Avoided [tCO2]

3,000 3.000,00 2,500 2.500,00 2.000,00 2,000 1,500 1.500,00 1,000 1.000,00 500 500,00 - -

2,711.65 Internal Movements Peripheral Movements

2022 2022

2023 2023

2024 2024

2025 2025

2026 2026

2027 2027

2028 2028

2029 2029

CO2 Avoided [tCO2] - Moderate, Yearly

Tons CO2 Avoided, Case Comparison 4.500,00 4,500 4.000,00 4,000 3.500,00 3,500 3.000,00 3,000 2.500,00 2,500 2.000,00 2,000 1,500 1.500,00 1,000 1.000,00 500 500,00

2022

2023

2024

2025 low

moderate

2026

2027

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accelerated

Tons of CO2 Avoided, Case Comparison

New Potential Uses More Than Vehicles, Batteries On Wheels

Zero Emission Zones

Most electric vehicles are plugged to a charger whenever parked. The intention, obviously, is to keep the battery charged, but a great advantage of electric power is that it can be sent in both directions. If it was possible for parked vehicles to give energy back to the grid then they can be used as a distributed battery that can offer quick response to moments of peak demand, giving power plants the time they need to adjust their output. It also represents an opportunity for vehicle owners (both public and private) to generate extra profits, or recoup some expenses, by selling electricity at peak-time fares while charging at night with lower fees. The technology that allows this technique, known as vehicle to grid or V2G, is being tested worldwide, along with an evolution of the relative regulatory framework. V2G can also turn vehicles into storage capacity for renewable electricity, since renewable energy is not available at will and must be either used or stored.

Another way to take full advantage of pure-electric vehicles would be to create Zero Emission Zones in sensitive parts of the city. This is nothing revolutionary, as weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re seeing municipalities taking such action restricting access to the city centre, but why not extend the idea to other parts of the city?

Critics of V2G claim that the additional charging and discharging cycles will have a negative impact on battery life. However, a smart control algorithm with an objective of maximizing battery longevity can reverse this (Uddin et al., 2018).

According to recent claims most European cities want to ban fuel burning vehicles from their streets altogether, but the timeframe for these goals is decades away. And with good reason: a sudden ban would be simply outrageous. So as a transition strategy, while waiting to reach that condition, we could start tackling the most critical parts of our cities, or the ones we most care about. If restricting traffic sounds like too harsh a solution, time-limiting could be an option. All traffic may be allowed during peak times to allow the movement of people and goods, while restrictions could take place at night to foster silence and wellbeing.

Although in its nascent phase, V2G technology should be considered in new developments as we shift our mindsets towards a dynamic, connected electric era. EV-Bus stops Indoor and Outdoor: having zero emission, electric vehicles might be allowed to travel indoors. This could be useful for a range of uses, from hospital units to the hospitality industry

The United Kingdom is a leading example in the practice of Low and Zero Emission Zones. In April 2019 the city of London introduced the Ultra Low Emission Zone that covers the same area of the previously enforced Congestion Charge Zone, with the purpose of charging fees on all vehicles that do not meet certain pollution criteria. The city saw a reduction in emissions of 20% in the period from April to July. Oxfordshire County Council and Oxford City Council are taking the issue a step further, and and are proposing the creation of a Zero Emission Zone in the city centre. The area, called the Red Zone, consists of a few selected roads to which access is permitted toll-free to zero emission vehicles, while other vehicles will have to pay a charge that will be increasingly

high through the years. The program is set to begin at the end of 2020 with an eight-week “soft launch” phase, during which no charges or penalties will be applied, to ensure a smooth transition during the city’s busiest period. Moreover, permanent exemptions and discounts are provided for residents and businesses. Other Clean Air Zones have been established or are expected in several other cities in the U.K. These zones, born with the intention of improving air quality by discouraging the use of older, more polluting, vehicles. Five cities have been mandated by the Government to introduce a Clean Air Zone: Birmingham, Leeds, Nottingham, Derby and Southampton, while others have been required to conduct feasibility studies.

Oxford's Zero Emissions Zones

2030

Walton Street

2020

OXFORD High Street

Magdalen Bridge

Botley Road

2025

Abingdon Road

The deployment of large amounts of electric vehicles within a circumscribed area demands that the electric network be re-thought discourage it at peak time. This is only partly effective as it only delays the onset of peak demand: nothing would stop users from plugging all at the same time the moment tariffs shift.

Hidden Threats of EV Charging The diffusion of a great number of electric vehicles will bring improvements to urban life quality, but it will also have an impact on global energy consumptions. Specifically demand will shift from fuels to electricity. The increase in electricity production will not be a problem, but itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s how it will be delivered that requires attention. The average dimension of the batteries installed on cars often exceeds 50 kWh, by far greater than the daily electricity consumption of an average household in Europe. This means that, locally, electrical equipment will undergo a significantly greater load than usual and, most of all, than it is designed for. Should several electric cars be charging in the same neighbourhood, the local transformer may incur an overloading. To avoid such complications some sort of load management must be introduced. This can be done through both passive and active strategies. The first category consists of tools that influence user behaviour with the purpose of changing charging patterns. For example, different tariffs might be implemented at different times of the day in order to promote charging during low demand periods and

Passive

Active

EV time-varying rates, including timeof-use rates and hourly dynamic rates

Direct load control via the charging device

Communication to customer to voluntarily reduce charging load (e.g. behavioral demand response event)

Direct load control via automaker telematics

Incentive programs rewarding offpeak charging

Direct load control via a smart circuit breaker or panel

Examples of active and passive managed charging Data source: Smart Electric Power Alliance (2019)

traditional charging with â&#x20AC;&#x153;timer peakâ&#x20AC;?

direkt charging to match solar peak

energy consumption 6am 6 am

A more effective solution is so-called active managed charging. It consists of the exploitation of communication protocols by the utilities so that they can control charging in a predetermined way. Charging can be adjusted in timing and power output (whether curtailing or increasing). This method has been proven to reduce peak load without affecting total energy delivery. Other benefits of this technology include emergency load reduction and absorption of excess energy from renewable sources.

9 9pm am

12pm 12 pm

3 3pm pm

66pm pm

Opportunities for EV managed charging to meet grid needs Data source: BMW of North AMerica, 2016 with edits by Smart Power Alliance (2017)

99pm pm

smooth charging load and match with spike

1212am am

33am am

66am am

A widespread charger network is essential to support the growing number of electric vehicles on the road, sparking a change in the urban fabric Charger Availability

The concept of range anxiety itself is growing outdated, as more and more proof is emerging that the great majority of trips (e.g. commutes) can easily be taken by an electric vehicle. In fact several polls show that the presence of charging equipment at home and at the workplace would convince most customers to switch to an electric car. The problem is that not all workplaces have parking spots of their own. And even if they did, this would encourage private car transportation, aggravating the already critical congestion in big and old cities (such as European capitals). Dutch man's epic 89,000 km drive The most impressive electric endeavour so far accomplished, is a 89,000 km road trip completed by a Dutch man, Wiebe Wakker, in a little more than 3 years. The purpose of his mission was to prove that electric vehicles are a viable way of transport and, at the same time, raise awareness for sustainable mobility. Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most impressive is that the vehicle used to complete such journey is equipped with a 37 kWh battery, completely in line with average battery dimension and far from the biggest batteries available on the market. Wakker is not the only one: a number of similar missions was carried out, each showing that range anxiety is, like all anxieties, more in our heads than a real thing. Charger Placement When planning for electric mobility there are multiple new things to keep into account. Beyond the sheer availability of charging points for the vehicles, another

Cumulative Trips (%)

One of the most common perceptions the public has about EVs is that they are short on range. The fear that the vehicle will not have the capability to take us to destination leaving us stranded is known as range anxiety. To alleviate this problem services are born to geolocate charging points with the aim to help users find the closest to them while also providing information about the type of plug they will find. On the other side there are growing businesses creating and expanding networks of charging points to make them more ubiquitous, providing drivers with more chances to charge.

100 80 60 40 20 0

90 100

Miles

Analysis of Car Distance Trips in US Data Source: NHTS (2009)

big question is where to place them, not only demandwise but also from a technical point of view. That is, how complicated (and expensive) it is to install chargers in one place instead of another. While in-depth analysis is left to utilities and equipment providers, some simple reasoning allows for a first skimming in the early stages that will save time later. Things to consider include power density and installation costs. As aforementioned, high power concentration is undesirable, and this can be avoided by spreading the charging points over a larger area. At the same time electrical power might not be easily available in the intended spot. A frequent solution is to place chargers next to an electric â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;hot spotâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; such as a subway station, or taking advantage of tramway aerial lines. Charger Density Electric mobility is not spreading at the same speed worldwide. This is not only true in terms of vehicles on the road but also of charging points available per square kilometer. Taking as an example the main European capitals and the two largest US cities we notice two things: first, unsurprisingly, that charging point distribution is strongly concentrated in the city centre; second, that charger density across the broad urban area is somewhat aligned across all specimen, with the exception of Paris, which has long been a pioneer of electric mobility, being the first in the world to introduce an electric car-sharing rental service in 2011.

Buildi Scale 76

ng Electric mobility at the building scale is all about optimising parking facility allocation, and parking demand analysis becomes paramount in the design process. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s no longer enough to provide parking for all users; now different types of parking must be made available in order to satisfy the needs of different users. The key to accommodate this is a highly detailed occupancy profile, painting an accurate picture of parking duration for each user category. 77

E-Mobility in Munich

The project consists of the renovation of the Paketposthalle, the historical post office in Munich West, and the development of an urban, inner-city district with a mix of housing, business premises and spaces for social and cultural activities of approximately 78,000 sqm. The masterplan envisages placing two towers of around 155m high to become a new landmark for the city. The Halle will be transformed into a new open public space, activated by different daily cultural activities, events and concerts, reaching a capacity of 10,000 visitors.

neighborhood to the three S-Bahn stations in the surroundings. Finally, an in depth travel and parking demand is carried out to dimension the parking areas and the accesses. The aim is to challenge the parking regulations by introducing a Mobility Concept. Through the reduction of parking space by applying a shared parking strategy due to the vicinity of public transport and a wide and differentiated shared network, a parking demand decrease of -39% is obtained. This will help to reduce parking area from 5 to 3 basements.

A comprehensive transport scheme is carried out based on three main objectives: • maximizing connections with mass transit; • ensuring connectivity with the surroundings to support the project density; and • reducing car dependency and parking needs by promoting sustainable mobility. The site is well connected to different modes of public transport, in particular to the S-Bahn (around 400m south from the site) that ensures a high-frequency train service. The aim is to improve the link to the train station by adding a pedestrian bridge. Micromobility services, as well as a cycling network and service facilities are introduced to offer a sample of transport mode choices within the area. A driverless shuttle is proposed to connect the project site and its All images © Herzog & de Meuron Public transport accessibility map

Rotkreuzplatz U-Bahn

Project site

Laim S-Bahn

Hirschgarten S-Bahn

Donnersbergerbrücke S-Bahn Munchen Central Station

Westendstraße U-Bahn

Parking Allocation by Charger Type

Parkin

Selected Scenario

The Advantages of Mixed-Use Developments75% 25% Normal Parking

Non EV Parking Private EV Parking Slow Charging Fast Charging

EV parking

parking spots, all of which fall in the long stay category. By virtue of the many different activities taking place Therefore, all private parking places are designated as in Paketposthalle, it represents the perfect backdrop long stay and low power. for an EV parking case study. In addition to the extensive parking demand and trip generation, we took advantage of our knowledge regarding this project The results hereby presented reflect requirements to and seized the chance to add a further dimension obtain 15 DGNB points (which are summarised later). to the subject. To simplify reading the pre-fitted parking places have While most EV parking regulations dictate the amount been omitted from the calculation, as they have no of parking spaces that ought to be equipped with influence on parking demand or user behaviour. EV Chargging stations Typologies a charging point, they rarely provide indications regarding what kind of power the parking places are 120V 240 V 480 V supposed to supply. To take a step in that direction, AC Level One AC Level 2 DC Fast Charger given the large amount of data at our disposal, we decided to follow a demand-based approach in line 17-25 hours 2-8 with the forecasted user type allocation. To do that, hours 13 -1 we looked at the average duration of stay for each hour category as is shown in the chart and we combined it Adds 8 km per hour of charge with the relative turnover to divide them into short stay Adds from 32 km to 96 km per hour of charge. and long stay. A 3 kW power rating is attributed to long stay, while the short stay places were designated with Adds from 96 km to 160 km per 20 minutes of charge. 11 kW. These are to be considered base values for a preliminary evaluation, as they are generally sufficient to replenish enough energy to meet driver need, given Residential Residential and Commercial use Commercial time availability. Higher charging power will always be warmly welcomed by drivers, but less by the budget. A EV Charging stations Typologies further distinction is made between public and private. The latter comprises work, hotel and residential EV Parking Occupancy Profile min

Community Community Culture Culture Office FB & Retail Office Residential FB & Retail Hotel Residential (reserved for private use) Hotel (reserved for private use)

EV Parking Occupancy Profile

Parking Allocation Parking by Allocation Chargerby Type Charger Type

Parking Allocation Parking by Allocation Durationby Stay Duration Sta

Non EV Parking Private EV Parking Slow Charging

Fast Charging

Non EV

ing

Non EV Parking

Private EV Parking

Slow Charging

EV Chargging stations EVTypologies Chargging stations Typologies Parking Allocation by Charger Type

EV Short Stay

EV Long Stay

Parking Allocation by Duration Stay

Parking Occupancy Profile

120V AC Level One

240 120VV AC ACLevel LevelOne 2

17-25 hours

240 V 480 V 480 V AC DC Level Fast 2 Charger DC Fast Charger

Normal Parking and EV Parking

2-8 hours

0:00 Adds 8 km per hour of charge

1:00

2-8 hours 13min-1

hour

Adds 8 km per

2:00 hour of charge

Adds from 32 km to

3:00 96 km per hour of charge. 4:00 5:00

13 -1 hour min

Hotel* - EV Hotel* - non EV Residential* - EV

Adds from 32 km to 96 km per hour of charge.

Residential* - non EV Retail & FB - EV

Adds from 96 km to 160 Adds km per from 96 km to 160 km per 20 minutes of charge. 20 minutes of charge.

6:00

Retail & FB - non EV

7:00

Office - EV

8:00 Residential

9:00 Residential Residential and

10:00 Commercial

Residential and Commercial

Commercial use

Office - non EV Culture - EV

11:00

Culture - non EV

12:00

Community - social - EV

13:00 14:00

Community-social - non EV * (reserved for private use)

15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00

Selected Scenario

19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0

500

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Parking Occupancy Profile Normal Parking and EV Parking

Parking Guidelines EV parking spaces require special attention to make sure they are easy to find and operate. When electrifying a parking lot or garage some questions arise naturally, for example: how many chargers should be provided? Where should they be placed? What power should they provide? Trying to answer these questions is a complicated task by itself, let alone if this were in a young and rapidly evolving market. Still, an answer must be found. To do that we put together a series of principles that constitute the good practice of EV parking design. Where to locate them? • To comply with disability requirements, EV parking places should be close to building entrance • Protection from weather increases attractivity (indoor garage, solar panel canopy) • To minimize installation costs, charging points should be clustered as close as possible to distribution cables and sources

• In perpendicular parking, chargers should be placed strategically to serve multiple vehicles and accommodate the vehicles' different electric port positions • Angular parking creates triangular zones between vehicle and curb than can be used to locate charger

EV parking close to building entrance / to existing electric equipment

perpendicular parking with chargers placed in between / angular parking crates triangular zones

How to minimize obstacles? • Adequate space should be provided to the user to handle the charger • Casings must be considered to protect charger from the vehicles (wheel stops, bollards) • Existing structures such as columns and pillars can be used to provide shelter to chargers

• linear parking, electric port on the vehicle might be on the traffic side, exposing user to increased risk when possible, create parking inset in sidewalk • Electric cords could create tripping obstacle to pedestrians - retractable or ceiling-mounted cables will solve the problem but at higher costs

Provide stoppers / curbs by adequate space and use of existing structures to provide shelter to chargers

parking inset in sidewalks in linear parking

How to get people there? • Appropriate signage has significant impact on driver and pedestrian behaviour: green is to be preferred to indicate EV charging place, as blue is perceived as a general indication

• Concentrating all chargers in one area is preferable for the landowner as it contains costs. At the same time, having them in one area will make easier to be found by users (if proper signage is provided)

appropriate signage - green to indicate EV charging, blue as general indication

concentrating all chargers in one area to avoid high cost and easy to find by users

Parking Metrics When is it enough? Providing adequate parking infrastructure for electric vehicles is crucial in allowing them to become everyday objects. Several surveys show that the possibility to charge at home and at work plays a huge role when deciding whether to buy an electric car or not. Indeed, an EV owner would prefer to be able to charge anytime, anywhere. Perhaps one day all parking spots will be equipped with a charging outlet but for now, in the transition phase, the focus is on the most desirable venues. Whether electric parking places are built with electric mobility in mind or retrofitted they involve unignorable costs. Since they can only be used by EVs, finding the correct EV/non-EV ratio is paramount to avoid ending up with unused assets. Electric vehicles perceive parking time in a different way than conventional vehicles: itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s no longer an inconvenience, but a chance to recharge some of the battery. They want to stay parked. The actual time that they spend parked is the first determining factor in deciding how much power to store: the longer the stop the lower the power needed. For cost reasons it would be desirable to install the least powerful chargers. At the same time fast chargers are more attractive to users. Finding the right balance

is what this problem is all about. To further refine the study the average travelled distance can enter the equation: knowing how far users have to travel after leaving the facility can give guidance into how much power to provide in order to replenish the batteries enough to allow for the return trip. Considering average commuting distances and driving habits, providing enough charge to travel 50 kilometres would be a reasonable minimum requirement. With a median fuel economy of around 0.2 kWh/km this translates into delivering 10 kWh of electricity to the vehicle. Once this parameter has been fixed, and knowing how long the average vehicle will stay parked, it is possible to install the correct power on order to obtain the desired result. The final charger type allocation can be of only one kind or any degree of mix as desired. The chart below shows an example of how the overall investment would change as a function of the share of fast chargers in the whole parking. To keep things simple only two types of chargers were considered, fast and slow. What is interesting to notice is that with only a small increase in the number of fast chargers the total investment is doubled.

LEED

1 Point - Install EVSE in 2% of all parking spaces or at least 2 spaces, whichever is greater or make 6% of parking spaces or at least 6 spaces, whichever is greater, EV Ready.

BREEAM

At least one private space per home with EVCP must be provided

DGNB

10 Points: 2 charging points and 50% of car parking spaces pre-fitted 15 Points: 50% pre-fitting, 25% equipped with charging stations 20 Points: 25% pre-fitted, 50% equipped 25 Points: 25% pre-fitted, 75% equipped 30 Points: 100% equipped

Home Quality Mark

Public parking: minimum 10% of parking spaces equipped with EVSE

Residential buildings, new or undergoing major renovation: Installation of ducting infrastructure for every parking space to enable installation at a later stage of recharging points for electric vehicles. Non-Residential buildings, new or undergoing major renovation: At least one electric recharging point and ducting infrastructure for at least 1/5 parking spaces to enable installation at a later stage of recharging points for electric vehicles

California Green Building Standards

Number of parking spaces: 0-9 10-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-150 151-200 >201

London City

1 in 5 (20%) parking spaces must provide an electrical charging point to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles.

Number of EV charging spaces: 0 1 2 4 5 7 10 6%

16.000.000,00 16,000,000

Total Investment in Euro

14.000.000,00 14,000,000 12.000.000,00 12,000,000 10.000.000,00 10,000,000

8,000,000 8.000.000,00 6.000.000,00 6,000,000 4.000.000,00 4,000,000 2.000.000,00 2,000,000 --

0 0,05 0.1 0,1 0,15 0.2 0,2 0,25 0.3 0,3 0,35 0.4 0,4 0,45 0.5 0,5 0,55 0.6 0,6 0,65 0.7 0,7 0,75 0.8 0,8 0,85 0.9 0,9 0,95 1.0 1 Fast/Slow Ratio

80,000 80000

160 160

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140 140

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120 120

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Charger Power in Watt (red)

Charger Price in Euro (blue)

Project investment change in response to increasing fast charger share Including fast chargers quickly inflates the projectâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cost.

Duration of stay (minutes) Charger power and price in relation to the time needed to charge at least 10 kWh Longer parking times allow to install cheaper, low-power chargers.

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20 20 00

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Duration of stay (minutes) Charger power in relation to duration of stay Time availability and charging power are intertwined and inversely proportional.

Micro 86

Scale Micro and personal mobility is being radically changed by the sudden appearance of new mobility and commuting services powered by next-gen electric vehicles. By virtue of the short trip length, vehicle performance doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t play as important a role as at larger scales. The key to successful micro mobility solutions, then, lies in the accessibility and ease of use granted by free floating schemes. Therefore, to plan at this level it is fundamental to clearly understand user type, population distribution and travel habits in order to ensure an appropriate availability of shared devices. This data enables transport planners and policy makers to take informed decisions and make transport more efficient and sustainable. 87

The Urban Revolution of Lithium Batteries

This map represents average travel distance to work (blue = higher distances) 88

What is Sharing Micromobility? The term micromobility generally refers to small personal mobility vehicles that are either owned or shared, electric or conventional. This section primarily focuses on shared electric micromobility systems that have taken over cities across the globe - particularly in the United States and Europe, and parts of Asia - in recent years. In essence, the term is used to indicate markets of e-bikes, e-mopeds and e-scooters. These systems have diverse market growth trends, with the oldest being the sharing bicycle market, which began in Europe in 2001, while more recent introductions of e-moped and e-scooter sharing systems first emerged in the United States in 2012 and 2017, respectively. The first wave of bikesharing began in Europe in 2001 when there were only 5 systems operating in European countries. Electric bike sharing is a more recent development that is gaining momentum globally due to its fast and flexible operations. As of 2018, electric bikes constituted about 10% of the sharing market. The e-moped sharing systems market has grown globally at remarkable rates since 2015, more than doubling in 2019 worldwide. Today, 82% of moped sharing cities are in Europe with Spain and France being the European frontrunners. Outside of Europe, India established itself as the largest emerging market in 2019. Scooter-sharing systems have achieved massive growth in just a few short years, the peak of which was in 2019. The year 2020 began on the prediction that the

381

grams of CO2e per mile

177

grams of CO2e per mile

Average emissions in 90001

trend would ebb towards a consolidation of markets through acquisitions and increased regulation. Many countries were adjusting traffic laws to incorporate shared e-scooters, and many forefront cities, such as Paris were limiting the number of operators and fleet sizes in their cities (which in Paris had exceeded 20,000 in 2019). The developments of the global pandemic situation of course changed the tides on the entire market and as of the writing of this book, it was yet to become clear whether the micromobility market would survive this disruption, or in the most optimistic views, thrive because of it. Short battery innovative cycles and the rise of sharing micromobility These market developments would not have been possible had it not been for the constant developments and price reductions of lithium ion batteries, which have essentially eliminated the industrial entry barriers of these devices and made it easier to travel faster with small physical and environmental footprints.

Data source: Bloomberg NEF, taken from 15Marches and Dixit - Micromobility Explorer publication (2019)

Defining the MicroMobility Market Certain factors highlight the extents of the micromobility market and its potentials for growth. These factors fall under various categories as shown below.

Travel characteristics

Socio-demographic characteristics

Micromobility vehicles are of the short-distance trip range. The average trip distances vary for different vehicles: the typical trip distance for an e-scooter tends to be around 5km, while e-mopeds and e-bicycles are used for longer distances with averages of 15km. Data shows that car trips made in the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany within the range of 5km make up at least half of all car trips. This fact highlights a strong potential for micromobility devices to capture a significant portion of the automobile market, with various implications for congestion and the environment. Moreover, data shows that these vehicles are often used as first-and-last-mile solutions to connect users to public transport nodes, emphasizing great potential for integrated transport planning.

Early analyses of user profiles in diverse cities embracing sharing micromobility have shown that across various international contexts, users tend to share several traits. Shared e-scooter users tend to disproportionately be young, professional and male and have higher incomes than any other counterpart category. Most strikingly, users are twice as likely to be male than female. In terms of age, the age group that they attract most is the 25-34 group with an average age of around 35. In Paris, for example, around a third of users fall within this age group, even though this group represents only 14% of the regional population. It is important for micromobility providers to come up with strategies to attract underrepresented groups and make sure their travel needs are met.

Average trip distance by travel mode in European cities Data source: Sustainability paper, Challenges Caused by Increased Use of E-Powered Personal Mobility Vehicles in European Cities (2019)

Breakdown of e-scooter users in Paris by age Data source: 6t-bureau de recherche (2019), Usages et usagers des trottinettes ĂŠlectriques en free-floatingen France

Morphological urban characteristics

Environmental characteristics

Certain features of a city's urban morphology could encourage or discourage the use of micromobility vehicles. Among the most significant aspects is the extent of cycling infrastructure within the city. In Brussels, for example, a user survey showed that 88% of users prefer riding e-scooters on designated cycle lanes than any other roadspace. Other important features include the diversity of land uses, which serve to make trips shorter between different areas; the density of street intersections, which enable users to choose between a variety of routes and find the most efficient route to get from A to B; and finally, the topographic variation within a city. Hilly areas of a city tend to discourage the use of e-scooters due to reduced driving power and a reduced sense of safety.

Environmental factors play a major role in determining the uptake of micromobility in a given context. Yearround weather conditions determine fleet capacities in cities with harsh winter climates. Rugged hardware features can compensate partially for vehicle shortcomings, yet seasonality will continue to be a factor in market potentials. Alternatively, due to the high energy efficiency of electric micromobility vehicles compared to other private transport modes, they offer major potential to reduce both carbon emissions and congestion levels aggravated by the overuse of private cars. Cities applying emission caps or congestion schemes could therefore stand to benefit greatly from the integration of sharing micro-mobility in their overall transport mix.

Breakdown of e-scooter users in Brussels by preferred roadspace Data source: BruxellesMobilitĂŠreport (2019), Survey on the use of electric scooters in Brussels

Comparison of travel range per 1kWh of energy consumption Data source: CB Insights report, "The Micromobility revolution: How bikes and scooters are shaking up urban transport worldwide" (2019)

New Geography of E-Micro-Mobility How micro-mobility adapts to city dynamics

Daytime population

Scooter movements

Daytime population

Moped movements

Daytime population

Moped movements

Daytime population

Bike movements

Walkability index

Scooter movements

Walkability index

Moped movements

Walkability index

Scooter movements

Walkability index

Bike movements

Micro-Mobility Patterns How does micromobility use change from weekday to weekend? The opposite diagrams show the concentrations of micromobility movements in Paris on a typical weekday versus a typical weekend day in the early months of 2020 and before the pandemic emergency situation, which created a disruption in mobility metrics worldwide. The data portrayed here comes from the three modes of shared micromobility combined (e-bikes, e-mopeds and e-scooters) collected from various mobility providers whose fleets are distributed throughout the city. The first identified distinctions with regards to the overall magnitude of movements, which is found to be greater on a given weekday than in the weekend, suggesting significant use for work purpose trips. On average, micromobility movements decrease by a 15% on the weekends in comparison to weekdays. The lowest reduction is observed for scooters (-9%) while the highest difference is for mopeds (-29%). The second identified difference concerns pattern distinctions, and in particular the spatial distribution of movement density across the city. Here we notice that the density of movements is more focused in central , productive areas of the city during weekdays and are more dispersed throughout the city during weekends. Leisure trips tend to show a more dispersed pattern owing to residential and recreational dispersion.

Paris shared micromobility movement density on weekday vs weekend Data source: Fluctuo CityDive data

Weekday

Weekend

Paris MM density movements weekday (above) vs. weekend (below) Data source: Fluctuo CityDive data

How do micromobility movements change throughout the day? In 2019, Paris was one of the leading cities in shared micromobility, with at least 20,000 e-scooters roaming its streets prior to regulation. It is also a frontrunner in the e-moped world, ranking second in Europe behind Madrid with 6,300 vehicles. The city's own bikesharing system VĂŠlib' is also widely popular and among the most renowned globally, with a fleet of 19,500 under its belt, according to the official website. In many ways, this makes Paris an ideal city to track for micromobility movements to detect minute changes that occur across time and space. The figures presented below show snapshots of movement densities in 3 distinct phases of the day: morning, lunchtime (early afternoon) and evening. Comparing these 3 maps, we find that movements contract significantly during lunchtime towards the city center. This shift is recurrent in various cities and it corresponds with the concentration of daily populations in central areas of work on weekdays. Additionally, a comparison between average trip distances during these times across micromobility modes shows that trips made during lunchtime tend to be shorter than the daily average. Morning and evening trips are thus longer on average and more spread out.

micromobility area movement profile maximum movement profile

Paris MM movements AM Data source: Fluctuo CityDive data

Paris MM movements LT Data source: Fluctuo CityDive data

Paris MM movements PM Data source: Fluctuo CityDive data

Operating Models In a few short years, the number of electric micromobility sharing providers have multiplied across the globe. How do companies maintain price competitiveness? Optimising operations and the life cycle Each device in an operator's fleet undergoes the same life cycle; the aim of any operator is to extend the distance from procurement to disposal as much as possible, while making sure that each component in the operations phase is as efficient and economically and environmentally sound as possible. Each element of the cycle comes with its challenges. However, several studies of the electric sharing micromobility market have shown that Charging and Relocation are the most financially burdensome areas. These areas along with Procurement and Disposal are the most environmentally costly areas and have placed operators under a lot of public heat in recent times. Operators that are able to employ innovative strategies to reduce these mounting costs are spared a seat in the jungle.

Three phases of a deviceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s life cycle Data source: Porsche Consulting - Deconstructing the Micromobility Phenomenon publication (2019)

Carbon Emissions One of the driving forces of the micromobility movement has been centered around its low energy consumption per traveled kilometer in comparison to alternative private mobility vehicles such as the car. However, such analyses fail to take into account carbon emissions produced when the vehicles are at a stop, i.e. the enviornmental impact of the operational phases. The following diagram comparing average carbon emissions by transport mode provides a breakdown of these emissions by category. We find that e-bikes, while they are slightly more costly than conventional bikes, are still fairly low on the scale, as are Vespalike e-scooters (mopeds), which are significantly more environmentaly friendly that their gasolinerun counterparts. However, e-kick-scooters, and particularly in dockless systems, are high up the scale amid heavier and gasoline run vehicles. At a closer look, we find that the two main components driving up carbon emissions are maintenance, manufacturing and disposal. Given their short life cycles, vandalism and the oversupply of vehicles that come with dockless systems, it is no surprise that these categories drive up the negative economic impact of these vehicles. 98

Average carbon emissions by transport mode broken down by category (in gram per pkm) Data Source: Lufthansa Innovation Hub, Mobitool, BMVI, UBA, Handelsblatt, Statista (2019)

Operational costs The unit economics of e-scooters give a sense of how costly charging and relocation activities are to an operating company. The analysis by Porsche Consulting shows that for every US dollar paid by the consumer, 47 cents go directly into operating these items. It is the single largest expense of shared scooter operations and makes up about 60% of total cost. As a result, a significant portion of the sector's innovational capacity goes into developing winning models to improve the unit economics of these two elements. Some of these models will be discussed in the next pages. But first, a summary of the main operational types and the differences between them is essential.

Unit economics breakdown for e-scooter in USD Data source: Porsche Consulting - Deconstructing the Micromobility Phenomenon publication (2019)

Summary of the main operating models: docked, dockless and hybrid

totally station-based

totally station-free

Docked system • • • •

Scooters can only be unlocked and locked at designated stations Costly infrastructure building costs Low flexibility for users Orderly system with low urban disruption

•

Dockless system

•

Scooters are picked up and left off freely from any location around the city Low initial costs of implementation High flexibility for users Disorderly system leading to urban chaos

• • •

Samocat docked scooter system implemented in Helsinki, Finland

Lime dockless scooters crowding sidewalk in Austin, Texas. Credits: Jay Janner

Hybrid system(s) •

•

One of many mixed combinations between both systems: it consists of some stations and flexible zones, sometimes with monetary incentives for using stations Balances between initial costs, flexibility and impact on the urban environment

Swiftmile docking solution for Spin and other predominantly dockless systems Credits: Swiftmile

Charging Modes How are sharing micromobility providers charging their fleets? As previously discussed, one of the pivotal areas in the operating model of sharing micromobility systems is charging. Unlike carsharing and other older models of shared electromobility, this market strategy relies primarily on the concept of reducing fixed costs, including infrastructure builds, which require great initial investments and lobbying efforts with host cities to approve station locations. Alternatively, crowdcharging models ranging from device pickups and delivery to off-site warehouses, and developing into the now-commonplace on-site charging by 'juicers' or hired personnel, come the advent of swappable batteries. Sometimes, this also includes relying on the gig economy or 'crowd-charging' models, as they are called to eliminate fixed personnel salaries. In the everevolving and still relatively volatile world of sharing micromobility, the keyword is risk reduction, should the operator have to pull out of a city or market suddenly. This is not a homogenous monolith. Naturally, each market operates on its own conditions and resources, and some alternative stories will be discussed in the case studies on the following pages.

Traditional approach

Off-site charging via night pickups Before swappable batteries, scooters would have to be picked up during off-service nighttime hours, to be charged in a remote location, often via gasoline-run trucks that drive up environmental costs.

Credits: Reddit user upload (Thebassetwhisperer)

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The Swappable Battery Revolution The introduction of swappable batteries into the micro-mobility market was a huge stride forward that enabled major changes in the operational model, leading to significant cost cuts. No longer do scooters require time-consuming charging at off-site warehouse facilities. Swappable batteries have meant that scooters could be charged instantly and without having to ever leave their parked locations in the city. Lost time for charging trips are thereby eliminated and the need for transporting the vehicles is reduced. Proposal by Grandspective.com Illustration: Medium (2019)

Innovative approach

On-site battery swap by personnel

Station battery swap by users

The most common approach today is the crowdcharging model, where hired staff or gig workers are employed to recharge scooters on site, when needed, in locations close to their own surrounding area.

In some contexts, operators have users replace the batteries themselves at designated stations for the vehicle that they are using when depleted, often with a monetary or value incentive.

Credits: TIER

Credits: EET Asia

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Battery Swap Stations Some international cases shed light on the possibilities of alternative battery charging models that yield great benefits to the system. The success story of battery swap stations is one that relies on multiple co-factors, intrinsic and extrinsic to the model. Taiwan best practice: home of the Scooter Waterfall When it comes to motorized two-wheelers, Taiwan is an established powerhouse, with several leading homebased companies under its wing. Peak sale volume in 2017 reached nearly 1 million sold units across the nation. In 2018, a shift to alternative fuels led to a drop in sales and made way for electric scooters, which gradually took the market by storm. The fact that several policy schemes incentivize the use of electric scooters helped the market develop into what it is today, with more growth projected in the coming years.

The massive governmental support for electric scooters in Taiwan has led to the subsidization of the needed scooter infrastructure: user-based charging stations. Taiwan's market is traditionally focused on the private market. Yet, leading companies such as Gogoro, which has already dominated the national private market are looking into extending a sharing service in several cities across the country as well. In this way, Gogoro could capitalize on their existing station network and circumvent the heavy toll of high infrastructure costs.

Electric moped riders participate in 'The Quiet Ride' on the famous Taipei Bridge in Taipei City, Taiwan Credits: Gogoro

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Taiwan: a robust battery station network Taiwan

Taipei

Country Profile Number of stations Enabled Under Construction Daily battery exchanges Daily battery swaps per station per day (average)

1,587 1,511 76 175,576 110

Information reflects figures as of February 2020. (Maps: MOWD)

The Gogoro model: How it Works The Gogoro model is based on a simple concept: the scooters are owned and the energy is shared. • •

Smartphone Connectivity

Smartscooter Purchase

Battery Swapping Subscription

Gogoro Energy Network Infrastructure

Each vehicle runs on 2 batteries, lasting up to 110km on single charge. Each station unit is the size on an ATM machine, holding up to 8 batteries at a time. It also creates power feedback routes to sustain the unit and urban microgrids.

Solar-powered GoStations

Solar Power is Charging Batteries Credits: Gogoro

Some GoStations are powered by solar panels, generating up to 6.21 kWh/day. These stations can charge 10 batteries/day via solar energy, while the remaining batteries must rely on grid power. To encourage the use of these solar stations, riders charging their vehicles at one of these stations gain value points in the form of an ‘Apollo Swap’ badge on their accounts. Such developments support local and global efforts to drive the electromobility sector forwards and ensure that the micromobility market can be a top contender in the clean energy movement.

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The Berlin case: a brief trial run Prior to acquisition, the electric moped sharing company COUP - which operated in the European markets of Berlin, Paris and Madrid - briefly tested out the idea of user battery change. In October of 2019, three years into operation in the city of Berlin and a couple of months before announcing service discontinuation, the company announced the pilot project called 'COUP pit stops'. The trial run consisted of only two station points, where users were encouraged to swap batteries themselves with the help and guidance of a local staff member in exchange for a free ride. The move was intended to attract full-day renters who would otherwise not rent a moped on half the charge. However the project never materialized into a permanent model. Only two months later, the company announced that it was halting operations due to financial difficulties. COUP has since been acquired by the Germany-based electric scooter company, Tier, which has recently announced its transition to multimodality as a nod to this acquisition. It remains unclear, however, whether the battery swap station model is going to be reconsidered by the global group. Restrictions & bureaucratic barriers in Europe

Urban space restrictions

Municipal approval process

Space restrictions for infrastructure installation, coupled with difficulties of municipality approval are 2 setbacks for the battery swap station model.

COUP moped rider in Berlin prior to operations shutdown

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Policies & Regulations: a Global Patchwork Around the world, the approach to sharing micromobility is varied: systems are either proactive, reactive or outlawed depending on local laws. The situation is constantly evolving and more and more global cities are updating their regulatory frameworks. From March to November 2019, the number of European cities with shared e-scooter systems increased from 32 to 112. By March of 2020, this number had reduced slighting to 97 cities due to several retractions, yet the overall growth is undeniable and the rate of adoption is high relative to just 12 months prior. Elsewhere in the world, the adoption of shared micromobility is also growing. Since the early onset of these new modes, debate has been fueling over their safety, their environmental impact and their place on the urban streetscape. Naturally, the openness to these schemes

has not been the same everywhere. Depending on the rigidity of existing traffic laws, the openness of local markets to new, unpredictable modes of transport and local perceptions towards them, the course of action has been very different. As of the beginning of 2020, e-scooters are not yet allowed on Dutch and British roads. For the countries that do allow it, the process to organize roadspace, parking and riding rules, etc. is a long one. It will take time to establish new laws to regulate these vehicles, ensure optimum serviceability to the public and integration with overarching transport networks.

Snapshot of electric scooter legal frameworks in various countries globally (2019) (Data source: Unagi Scooters blog) Germany Speed limit 20 KP/H 14 years or older to ride Canada Scooters are allowed on street Specific license is not required Ride-share pilot programs in Calgary and Quebec

Speed limit 12 KP/H 12 years or older to ride

United Kingdom Only legal on private land

Sweden Offers 25 subsidy

France Scooters allowed on street and cycling path, never on sidewalks

South Korea Scooters allowed on street 16 years or older to ride

Mexico & Latin America Shared Scooter market active in Mexico, Brazil, Columbia, Peru and Chile

Spain Scooters allowed in bike lanes, not allowed on sidewalks or walkways Italy Offers 25 subsidy for scooters matching a 125cc engine

Scooters allowed on street

Speed limit 30MPH

Scooters not allowed on street

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Way Forward The transition to electric propulsion for all transport systems is somewhat inevitable. The hope is for one day to have renewable energy powering all the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s needs. Electric vehicles can lend a hand in this respect, by reducing fossil fuel reliance, as long as the electricity they are powered with is renewable. In a conceivable future, electric vehicles will vary in nature: so far battery electric is emerging as the predominant type but there is no guarantee that it will keep its lead. Other technologies are being developed, such as hydrogen cells, supercapacitors, e-fuels, and biofuels, not to mention other developments of the battery itself. 106

It will be crucial to monitor and keep up to date with the progress being made in transportation innovation in order to correctly evaluate which strategy is best for each situation and how to implement it. Clearly, the current situation has brought uncertainty and setbacks, but this does not take away that electric vehicles are an unavoidable part of any plan for a sustainable future. As we navigate this new challenge our long-term targets are unchanged and as pressing as before. It is only with a bigger-picture approach that we will be able to keep up with the pace of this rapidly evolving technology and make sure that this transition is at the heart of our planning discourse.

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Systematica Srl Established in 1989, Systematica is a transportation planning and mobility engineering consultancy with its main office in Milan, Italy and subsidiary offices in Beirut, Mumbai, and New York City. Systematica provides a wide array of integrated consultancy services in the sectors of transportation and urban planning and operates at multiple scales with expertise at the national, regional, and urban development scale of transportation planning. Systematica provides strategic advisory and due diligence for infrastructure investments, traffic analysis and management, and mobility engineering in complex buildings and event venues. In addition, specialization in pedestrian flows, parking design, and vertical transportation are provided as a core service. As technology is rapidly changing the transportation planning realm, Systematica is actively engaged in the research and application of advanced information mobility systems and technologies. Systematica has three-decades of experience in providing quality service to clients, international experience in complex environments, and expertise in the usage of sophisticated analytical mapping instruments and traffic modeling software. Its widely acknowledged tailor-made approach has made it possible for Systematica to work on complex projects around the globe in equally diverse contexts. The evidence-based approach of Systematica is underpinned and supported by an extensive use of transportation modeling tools and simulation platforms aimed to explore and identify the most suitable planning solutions in every context and at any scale. www.systematica.net

Transform Transport Transform Transport is Systematica's research unit focused on innovative mobility solutions. While mobility and transport related technologies are emerging with increasingly fast paced, Transform Transport explores how they can have positive impacts on our cities, neighborhood and buildings. Founded by Systematica, it grounds on 30 years of experience in the field of transport planning and mobility engineering, investigating the future of Milan and other cities worldwide. research.systematica.net

Credits Electric Mobility: towards zero emissions 1st Edition ISBN: 978-88-944179-4-4 Team: Lamia Abdelfattah, Filippo Bazzoni, Francesco Bottini, Rawad Choubassi, Diego Deponte, Jonelle Hanson, Ana Gaby Chavez Martinez, Caroline Purps, Anahita Rezaallah A special thanks to all collaborators of Systematica who contributed to this book.