Up close
Patrick Barkey, director of the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research, reflects at his office in a file photo.
Economist talks pandemic, projections
KEILA SZPALLER keila.szpaller@missoulian.com Patrick Barkey has made economic projections through multiple recessions, but he said doing the work during a pandemic feels different. "Things usually don't happen this fast in the economy," said Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. "It's been a case of a disease that grows geometrically, and it's been the case of economic assessments changing if not daily, at least weekly." 18
MISSOULA BUSINESS • SUMMER 2020
On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, and on March 13, the United States declared a national emergency from the novel coronavirus outbreak. Many economies including that of the state of Montana were temporarily shut down, and recent reopenings around the country have led to another surge in cases of the respiratory illness that has killed some 130,000 in the United States and more than half a million worldwide. In Montana, 23 people had died as this
publication went to print, and cases have been climbing again in recent weeks after a plateau. In May, economists from the Bureau revised economic projections for Montana from the previous month as more data showed a tougher economic forecast for the state across industries. An updated report predicted a steeper drop in personal income — a hit of $6.4 billon instead of $3.9 billion, or an 11.7% drop, compared to 2018 — and they forecast higher job losses and a slower economic recovery that would extend beyond 2022.
In a recent interview, Barkey, head of the Bureau since 2008, said the economy continues to change quickly, and July would bring significantly distressing projections for assessments of GDP, or gross domestic product, in 2020. He said with the first quarter of the year seeing the economy falling 8% to 9%, the projection this month for the annualized growth rate may look like a drop of 30% to 40%, although that estimate may not hold and does not account for more recent upticks in economic activity.
