Annual Report 2022
2022 marked a year of contrasts for Whitney Ranch real estate. In many ways, it was a breakout year as the community continued toward full build out, riding the wave of demand that began in 2020. In other ways, it was a regression to the mean as the velocity of sales returned to patterns last seen in 2019; the last ‘normal’ year before real estate values in Whitney Ranch and around the region saw explosive growth.
As a market of validation for the quality and demand of this now-mature community, values have largely held despite a meaningful drop in the total number of transactions. For the year, Whitney Ranch closed 103 residential properties (excluding the bulk of new home sales), over 30% fewer than each of 2020 and 2021 but identical to 2018 . Moreover, the total sales volume of $99 million while falling short of 2021’s highest total sales ever, was driven by a continued rise of 12% in median price.
The second half of 2022 offered a shifting dynamic as inventory loosen just enough to give purchasers a sense of options and the opportunity to make purchasing decisions at a more measured pace. While values drifted down slightly from the midyear peak, the most notable change was the opportunity offer something slightly below asking price. After two years during which the asking price was a starting point, a 2% discount became the standard; equivalent to the historic average for Whitney Ranch. Days on market increased from 12 to 36.
While the inventory of available listings has increased slightly, the current supply of 19 represents just over 2 months’ absorption. Objectively this condition is still tilted dramatically in favor of the seller.
At the outset of 2023, the landscape for Whitney Ranch real estate is undeniably different than it was a year ago. Consumer sentiment is notably more cautious in stark contrast to the frenzy of the preceding years. Despite headwinds in the housing sector, there remains steady demand and capacity to purchase. Very high functionality and exceptionally little distress, whether mortgage carry burden or other forms of liquidity, equate to mostly stable pricing. Look for the typical surge in new listings in spring which could lead to prices drifting slightly lower as longer sales cycles equate to increased days on market.
The local market seems to have priced in a tougher 2023 economic year, including higher interest rates and compressed equities, so any signs of economic relief could boost local activity. Nevertheless, the fundamental value in homeownership within a stable and mature community like Whitney Ranch will continue to deliver an enhanced lifestyle benefit that transcends economic values this year and for years to come.
