Post budget 2020 analysis Robert Sweeney
Storm clouds are gathering • No-deal Brexit • Overheating • Indebtedness • Corporate tax and fiscal policy
Gross debt 2018 (%GDP) 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0
20.0 0.0
Sources: Eurostat & CSO
Interest payable 2018 (%GDP) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Sources: Eurostat & CSO
Interest payable (%GNI*) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sources: Eurostat & CSO
Structure of taxation 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Corporation tax
PRSI
Income tax
VAT
Other
Source: OECD
Structure of composition Total exc. CIT
CIT
Total exc. CIT % GNI*
CIT % GNI*
2013
52938
4270
38.6
3.1
2014
57456
4614
38.6
3.1
2015
62244
6872
38.3
4.2
2016
65022
7351
37.0
4.2
2017
68399
8201
37.2
4.5
2018
73735
10385
37.3
5.3
Sources: Revenue & CSO
Extra revenue under different scenarios Constant % of GNI* (€bn)
40% GNI* in 2018 (€bn)
2013
-
-
2014
0.0
0.4
2015
0.6
1.5
2016
2.9
4.2
2017
2.7
4.6
2018
2.6
5.2
Sources: Calculations based on Revenue & CSO
Conclusion • Scope for borrowing • Tax cuts in recent times have increased reliance on CIT