World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019 by TBK Consult

World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East The BECH Index 2019

Hans Peter Bech

TBK PUBLISHING

ÂŠ Hans Peter Bech 2019 First edition Unless otherwise indicated, Hans Peter Bech copyrights all materials on these pages. All rights reserved. No part of these pages, either text or images may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission. The business model framework is distributed under a Creative Commons license from Strategyzer AG and can be used without any restrictions for modeling businesses. Published by TBK PublishingÂŽ (a division of TBK Consult Holding ApS), CVR: DKK27402917 www.tbkconsult.com/publishing ISBN: 978-87-93116-42-9 TBK-WIPA-034

World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table of contents: Table of Contents

Target audience

Abstract

Author

Acknowledgements

The new BECH Index

Grow fast or die slow

How?

Where?

Table 1: The BECH Index for the Major Markets 2014-19

The Top 25 Markets

Table 2: Top 25 Information Technology Countries in the World

Table 3: The BECH Index for the Americas 2014-19

Table 4: The BECH Index for The European Union 2014-19

Table 5: The BECH Index for The Rest of Europe 2014-19

Table 6: The BECH Index for The Middle East 2014-19

Table 7: The BECH Index for Africa 2014-19

Table 8: The BECH Index for Asia Pacific 2014-19

The BECH Index

About the author

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Targeted audience The target audience for this whitepaper is the board of directors, the CEO and the sales and marketing executives of B2B information technology companies with ambitions for achieving global market leadership.

Abstract This whitepaper presents an estimation of the relative demand capacity for B2B information technology and related services worldwide. This estimation is called “The BECH Index.” TBK Consult calculates the BECH Index annually based on data published by The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The CIA1 is an independent agency responsible for providing national security intelligence to senior US policymakers. The CIA is separated into four basic components: the National Clandestine Service, the Directorate of Intelligence, the Directorate of Science & Technology, and the Directorate of Support. They carry out “the intelligence cycle;” the process of collecting, analyzing, and disseminating intelligence information to top US government officials. Please observe that the CIA revises their assessments, which may obsolete the BECH Index assessments for previous years.

OBS: The BECH Index for 2016 and onwards uses a new algorithm and the data is therefore not compatible with previous BECH Index reports. All indexes in this whitepaper has been recalculated.

Author Hans Peter Bech, M.Sc. (econ.)

Acknowledgements Data collection and proof reading: Emma Crabtree, ecr@tbkconsult.com Design and lay-out: Jelena Galkina, info@kompot.ee _____________________________________________________ 1

Source: https://www.cia.gov/about-cia/todays-cia/index.html

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Grow fast or die slow The information technology industry is by nature a global industry. The information technology industry is blessed with low cost of entry and simple supply chains. International growth therefore comes much easier than in most other industries. Embarking on the global growth journey is also a necessity. The combination of simple supply chains, economy of scale advantages and “crossing the chasm”2 characteristics make the information technology industry a “winner takes all” game. Information technology companies either grow fast or die slowly.3 The market leader enjoys enormous advantages over number two, three and so on. Chances are that number one will continue to increase her market share while the followers will lose out. It’s not only the good old rule that the army with the most soldiers normally wins the battle. The information technology industry is governed by some very specific dynamics that are best understood by studying The Law of Diffusion of Innovation4 and the Crossing the Chasm theory.

Because of the nature of information technology products, the market prefers buying from the market leader. The first to reach the tipping point in a market gets caught by the tornado and suddenly revenue generation isn’t the primary concern anymore. Demand will drive revenue and fulfillment becomes the primary challenge. _______________________________________________________________________________________ See Crossing the Chasm, 3rd Edition: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers by Geoffrey A. Moore. 2

Grow fast or die slow April 2014 by Eric Kutcher, Olivia Nottebohm and Kara Sprague, McKinsey&Company

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

How? As information technology companies prepare for global growth the first question to answer is “how?” We discuss these issues in the first three whitepapers in this series named Entering a Foreign Market in the Information Technology Industry5 and in my upcoming book Going Global on a Shoestring6. We recommend that B2B information technology companies verify the viability of their business models in their domestic market first. When growing revenue has been proven profitable, predictable and scalable then it is time to conquer foreign markets.

Where? The second question asked before jumping to foreign markets is, “where we should go next?” To help information technology executives make this decision based on facts rather than emotions, TBK Consult calculates and publishes the BECH Index annually. The BECH Index for a country reflects the demand capacity of the country and thus also reflects the share of global demand for information technology related products and services.

_______________________________________________________________________________________ 5

These whitepapers are available for download from www.tbkconsult.com

https://tbkconsult.com/product/the-book-going-global-on-a-shoestring/

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 1: The BECH Index for the Major Markets 2014-197 Region

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

North America

20,89%

20,85%

20,71%

18,75%

18,73%

18,51%

South America

9,13%

8,97%

8,62%

8,26%

7,83%

7,94%

Americas

30,02%

29,82%

29,33%

27,01%

26,56%

26,45%

The European Union

19,06%

18,65%

18,66%

17,46%

17,59%

17,35%

6,71%

6,35%

6,31%

6,32%

6,45%

6,41%

Middle East

5,08%

5,05%

5,02%

5,66%

5,63%

5,50%

Africa

3,76%

3,77%

3,80%

3,66%

3,61%

EMEA

34,62%

33,82%

33,80%

33,24%

33,34%

32,87%

Australia/NZ

1,23%

1,66%

1,23%

1,21%

1,19%

Japan

4,87%

4,73%

4,62%

4,48%

4,52%

4,46%

China

13,32%

13,85%

14,43%

16,61%

16,96%

16,70%

South Korea

1,53%

1,63%

1,59%

1,56%

Taiwan

0,94%

0,95%

0,93%

0,98%

0,94%

0,93%

India

5,28%

5,53%

5,75%

5,99%

6,11%

7,09%

Rest of Asia

8,18%

8,11%

8,38%

8,85%

8,78%

8,76%

35,36%

36,36%

36,88%

39,75%

40,10%

40,68%

100,00%

Rest of Europe (incl. Switzerland)

Asia The World

The world market is divided into 229 countries of which some of the bigger countries must be considered as several markets. Talking about the US as one market when you havenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t won the first customer or independent channel partner there yet may seem overly self-confident. For most information technology companies, the US is at least 50 geographical markets, Germany is 14 markets (BundeslĂ¤nder), France is at least 4 markets, the UK is 4 markets, the Nordics are 4 markets and so on.

_______________________________________________________________________________________ Please note that the numbers in this white paper are due to the application of a new algorithm which will differ from BECH Index whitepapers from before 2016. 7

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

As can be seen from Table 1, world demand is moving east. The Americas have experienced a 12 per cent decline in the period 2014-2019. Although the demand from Central and South America shows an increase in 2019, the decline in demand from North America results in a net loss of 0.4 per cent for the area. Europe has lost 8 percent of global demand in the same period and after a slight increase in 2018, the decline continues in 2019. North America and Europe continue to be very interesting areas with some of the biggest markets in the world and because of increasing labor costs and public expenditure there is a growing need for information analytics, process and cost optimization information technology-based solutions. The slight decline in the Middle East in 2017 is most likely an impact of the changes in the oil price. Future growth in the Middle East still requires a restructuring of the economies away from the dependency on oil and gas. I am skeptical that they will be successful with such a transformation and predict a continued decrease in the region. China continues its growth and has consolidated its position as the second largest information technology market in the world. However, the growth here has leveled off and our prediction that China would outgrow the USA as the world largest market will not happen this decade. For 2019 the region even shows a small decline. The most prominent growth area is India showing a 34 per cent increase in the period 2014-2019 and a 16 per cent increase in 2019.

The Top 25 Markets These 25 countries make up more than 80% of world demand for information technology products and services with 204 countries sharing the remaining 20%. This doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t mean that these 25 markets are the most attractive as issues other than size may play a more important role. The six countries USA, China, India, Japan, Germany and Russia make up over half of world demand for information technology.

48,74% 19,47% 204

80,53%

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1. USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany

World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 2: Top 25 Information Technology Countries in the World Rank Rank Rank Rank Share 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019

Country

17,05%

USA

16,70%

China

7,09%

India

4,46%

Japan

3,44%

Germany

3,12%

Russia

2,71%

Brazil

2,55%

2,48%

France

2,20%

Indonesia

1,95%

Mexico

1,95%

Italy

1,67%

Turkey

1,56%

Korea, South

1,50%

Spain

1,46%

Canada

1,31%

Saudi Arabia

1,20%

Iran

1,03%

Australia

0,93%

Taiwan

0,91%

Thailand

0,87%

Egypt

0,86%

Poland

0,80%

Nigeria

0,75%

Pakistan

Accumulated

48,74%

61,78%

70,41%

76,35%

80,53%

From 2018 to 2019 Mexico has improved its position from 12 to 11, Thailand has moved from 22 to 21, Egypt from 23 to 22 and Poland from 21 to 23.

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 3: The BECH Index for the Americas 2014-19 Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

19,31%

19,28%

19,16%

17,23%

17,25%

17,05%

1,58%

1,57%

1,55%

1,52%

1,48%

1,46%

20,89%

20,85%

20,71%

18,75%

18,73%

18,51%

Argentina

0,80%

0,86%

0,75%

0,72%

0,70%

Belize

0,00%

0,03%

Bolivia

0,05%

0,06%

Brazil

3,45%

3,34%

3,14%

2,78%

2,71%

2,68%

Chile

0,38%

0,37%

0,38%

0,36%

0,35%

Colombia

0,55%

0,56%

0,55%

Costa Rica

0,08%

0,07%

Cuba

0,18%

0,13%

0,12%

0,11%

Dominican Republic

0,12%

0,13%

0,14%

0,13%

Ecuador

0,16%

0,15%

El Salvador

0,05%

0,04%

Falkland Islands

0,00%

Guatemala

0,11%

Grenada

0,00%

Honduras

0,03%

0,04%

0,03%

Jamaica

0,03%

0,02%

Mexico

1,97%

1,95%

1,99%

1,84%

1,95%

Nicaragua

0,03%

0,02%

0,03%

Panama

0,09%

0,08%

0,09%

0,08%

0,09%

Paraguay

0,05%

0,06%

Peru

0,32%

0,34%

0,30%

0,33%

Puerto Rico

0,10%

0,09%

0,10%

0,09%

Uruguay

0,07%

0,06%

Venezuela

0,53%

0,49%

0,45%

0,39%

0,30%

0,28%

South America

9,13%

8,97%

8,62%

8,26%

7,83%

7,94%

30,02%

29,82%

29,33%

27,01%

26,56%

26,45%

USA Canada North America

Americas

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 4: The BECH Index for The European Union 2014-19 Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Iceland

0,02%

0,01%

0,02%

0,01%

Sweden

0,42%

0,41%

0,42%

0,43%

0,42%

Norway

0,32%

0,31%

0,32%

0,31%

0,30%

Finland

0,23%

0,22%

0,21%

0,20%

Denmark

0,27%

0,26%

0,25%

Germany

3,69%

3,61%

3,60%

3,58%

3,48%

3,44%

Netherlands

0,82%

0,79%

0,80%

0,74%

0,72%

Belgium

0,53%

0,52%

0,51%

0,48%

0,46%

Luxemburg

0,06%

France

2,91%

2,82%

2,80%

2,56%

2,49%

2,48%

Austria

0,40%

0,39%

0,38%

0,37%

0,36%

Liechtenstein

0,00%

Italy

2,28%

2,21%

2,16%

2,04%

1,98%

1,95%

Spain

1,65%

1,64%

1,63%

0,99%

1,52%

1,50%

Portugal

0,31%

0,30%

0,28%

0,27%

2,88%

2,82%

2,87%

2,68%

2,57%

2,55%

Ireland

0,19%

0,24%

0,27%

Gibraltar

0,00%

Poland

0,78%

0,79%

0,88%

0,94%

0,86%

Estonia

0,04%

0,03%

0,04%

0,03%

Lithuania

0,08%

0,07%

Latvia

0,05%

Czechia (Czech Republic)

0,28%

0,27%

0,28%

0,30%

0,29%

Slovakia

0,14%

0,15%

0,14%

Hungary

0,23%

Bulgaria

0,13%

0,12%

0,13%

0,12%

Slovenia

0,06%

Greece

0,33%

0,32%

0,31%

0,28%

0,26%

19,06%

18,65%

18,66%

17,46%

17,59%

17,35%

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 5: The BECH Index for The Rest of Europe 2014-19 Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Switzerland

0,49%

0,48%

0,46%

0,44%

Cyprus, Republic

0,03%

Greenland

0,00%

Faroe Islands

0,00%

Monaco

0,01%

Isle of Man

0,01%

Jersey

0,01%

0,00%

0,01%

Georgia

0,03%

Andorra

0,00%

Guernsey

0,00%

Malta

0,02%

Croatia

0,09%

0,08%

Russia

3,50%

3,20%

3,16%

3,12%

UJraine

0,37%

0,33%

0,29%

0,28%

Belarus

0,13%

0,12%

0,13%

Romania

0,31%

0,32%

0,38%

0,39%

0,38%

Serbia

0,07%

0,08%

0,07%

Moldova

0,02%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0,04%

Montenegro

0,01%

Albania

0,03%

Macedonia

0,03%

0,02%

Josovo

0,02%

Turkey

1,48%

1,50%

1,47%

1,67%

Rest of Europe

6,71%

6,35%

6,31%

6,32%

6,45%

6,41%

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 6: The BECH Index for The Middle East 2014-19 Country

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019

Bahrain

0,05%

0,06%

Egypt

0,80%

0,75%

0,81%

0,87%

0,89%

0,87%

Iran

1,05%

1,04%

1,14%

1,21%

1,20%

Iraq

0,39%

0,37%

0,36%

0,47%

0,50%

0,46%

Kuwait

0,18%

0,17%

0,22%

0,21%

0,20%

Lebanon

0,08%

0,07%

0,08%

Israel

0,27%

0,26%

0,27%

0,26%

West Bank

0,02%

Jordan

0,08%

0,07%

Oman

0,11%

0,14%

Qatar

0,20%

0,21%

0,20%

0,27%

0,25%

Saudi Arabia

1,22%

1,23%

1,24%

1,42%

1,35%

1,31%

Syria

0,06%

0,10%

0,05%

0,04%

U.A.E.

0,47%

0,46%

0,47%

0,55%

0,51%

0,50%

Yemen

0,11%

0,10%

0,07%

0,06%

0,05%

0,06%

Middle East

5,08%

5,05%

5,02%

5,66%

5,63%

5,50%

Table 7: The BECH Index for Africa 2014-19 Country

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019

Algeria

0,41%

0,42%

0,46%

0,45%

0,43%

Angola

0,09%

0,12%

Benin

0,02%

Botswana

0,03%

BurJina Faso

0,02%

Burundi

0,01%

0,00%

Cameroon

0,05%

0,06%

Central African Republic

0,00%

Chad

0,02%

0,01%

Congo, Republic of the

0,01%

0,02%

Cote d'ivoire

0,06%

0,07%

Djibouti

0,00%

0,01%

0,00%

Dem. Rep of the Congo

0,04%

0,05%

0,04%

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Eq. Guinea

0,01%

0,02%

Eritrea

0,01%

Ethiopia

0,11%

0,12%

Gabon

0,02%

0,03%

Gambia

0,00%

Ghana

0,09%

0,10%

Guin. Bissau

0,00%

Guinea

0,01%

0,02%

Jenya

0,11%

0,10%

Lesotho

0,00%

0,01%

0,00%

Libya

0,11%

0,08%

0,07%

0,04%

Liberia

0,00%

Malawi

0,02%

0,01%

0,02%

Mali

0,02%

0,03%

0,02%

Mauritania

0,01%

Morocco

0,22%

0,23%

0,22%

Mozambique

0,03%

Namibia

0,02%

Niger

0,01%

Nigeria

0,92%

0,95%

0,87%

0,83%

0,80%

Rwanda

0,02%

Senegal

0,03%

0,04%

Sierra Leone

0,01%

0,00%

0,01%

Somalia

0,00%

0,01%

South Africa

0,70%

0,68%

0,66%

0,62%

South Sudan

0,01%

0,02%

0,01%

Sudan

0,13%

0,12%

Eswatini

0,01%

Tanzania

0,10%

0,11%

Togo

0,01%

Tunisia

0,11%

Uganda

0,06%

0,07%

0,06%

Western Sahara

0,00%

Zambia

0,05%

Zimbabwe

0,02%

0,03%

Africa

3,76%

3,77%

3,80%

3,66%

3,61%

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Table 8: The BECH Index for Asia Pacific 2014-19 Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Australia

1,07%

1,50%

1,07%

1,06%

1,03%

New Zealand

0,16%

0,15%

0,16%

Australia/NZ

1,23%

1,66%

1,23%

1,21%

1,19%

Japan

4,87%

4,73%

4,62%

4,48%

4,52%

4,46%

China

13,32%

13,85%

14,43%

16,61%

16,96%

16,70%

Korea, South

1,53%

1,63%

1,59%

1,56%

Taiwan

0,94%

0,95%

0,93%

0,98%

0,94%

0,93%

India

5,28%

5,53%

5,75%

5,99%

6,11%

7,09%

25,95%

26,59%

27,27%

29,69%

30,13%

30,74%

Hong Kong

0,51%

0,50%

0,44%

0,43%

Thailand

0,90%

0,81%

0,88%

0,93%

0,92%

0,91%

Singapore

0,47%

0,46%

0,45%

0,44%

0,45%

Malaysia

0,60%

0,63%

0,69%

0,68%

Indonesia

1,87%

1,90%

1,94%

2,25%

2,24%

2,20%

Philippines

0,59%

0,61%

0,63%

0,67%

0,66%

Kazakhstan

0,40%

0,38%

0,40%

0,37%

Pakistan

0,76%

0,77%

0,78%

0,75%

Vietnam

0,35%

0,36%

0,38%

0,43%

0,39%

0,45%

Bangladesh

0,45%

0,46%

0,48%

0,50%

0,51%

0,50%

Sri Lanka

0,18%

0,19%

0,20%

0,22%

0,21%

Azerbaijan

0,09%

0,12%

Trinidad and Tobago

0,05%

0,04%

0,03%

Turkmenistan

0,05%

0,07%

Bermuda

0,01%

0,00%

0,01%

Macau

0,10%

0,06%

0,08%

0,06%

0,07%

Mauritius

0,02%

Brunei

0,02%

Burma

0,19%

0,21%

0,22%

0,21%

Bahamas

0,01%

Uzbekistan

0,12%

0,13%

0,14%

0,15%

Cambodia

0,03%

0,04%

Barbados

0,01%

0,00%

The Big Countries

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Armenia

0,02%

Cayman Islands

0,00%

French Polynesia

0,01%

0,00%

Korea, North

0,02%

0,03%

0,02%

Nepal

0,05%

0,06%

0,05%

0,06%

New Caledonia

0,01%

Niue

0,00%

0,01%

Papua New Guinea

0,02%

0,01%

0,02%

Guam

0,00%

Fiji

0,01%

British Virgin Islands

0,00%

San Marino

0,00%

Laos

0,02%

0,03%

Haiti

0,02%

0,01%

Virgin Islands

0,00%

Suriname

0,01%

Kyrgyzstan

0,02%

Cape Verde

0,00%

Afghanistan

0,05%

Guyana

0,00%

Madagascar

0,03%

Tajikistan

0,02%

Northern Mariana Islands

0,00%

Antigua and Barbuda

0,00%

Aruba

0,00%

Seychelles

0,00%

Maldives

0,01%

Saint Lucia

0,00%

Bhutan

0,00%

Saint Pierre and Miquelon

0,00%

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

0,00%

Nauru

0,00%

Saint Kitts and Nevis

0,00%

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00%

Wallis and Futana

0,00%

Samoa

0,00%

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

Country

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cook Islands

0,00%

Dominica

0,00%

American Samoa

0,00%

Montserrat

0,00%

Anguilla

0,00%

Palau

0,00%

Vanuatu

0,00%

Micronesia

0,00%

Kiribati

0,00%

Solomon Islands

0,00%

Saint Helena

0,00%

Tonga

0,00%

Marshall Islands

0,00%

East Timor

0,00%

Comoros

0,00%

Sao Tome and Principe

0,00%

Tuvalu

0,00%

Curacao

0,00%

Mongolia

0,03%

Tokelau

0,00%

Saint Martin

0,00%

Sint Maarten

0,00%

Asia Pacific

8,18%

8,11%

8,38%

8,85%

8,78%

8,76%

35,36%

36,36%

36,88%

39,75%

40,10%

40,68%

Asia Pacific Total

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

The BECH Index We changed the algorithm behind the BECH Index from 2016 and onwards. We still use the Gross Domestic Product8 (GDP) as estimated and published by the CIA in their World Factbook9 and we still use the Purchasing Power Parity version that adjusts for the differences in the cost of living and price levels across the world. The new BECH Index uses the GDP composition on agriculture, industry and services. We assume that the demand for information technology will grow as a society moves from dependency on agriculture, through being dominated by industry to mainly producing services. We recognize that the productivity improvements that enable a society to survive and prosper with relatively small portions of the GDP coming from agriculture and industry is enabled and supported by information technology (and free international trade). However, we presume that the post-industrial activities are consuming far more information technology products and services than the primary and secondary sectors10. We have also decided to rename the annual report so that the current version is based on GDP data from the previous year. GDP data are published by the national statistical departments, but not all countries publish at the same time and some do not publish the data each year. We therefore wait for the CIA to gather and assess the data before we calculate and publish the BECH Index.

_______________________________________________________________________________________ The GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a period (quarterly or annually). Nominal GDP estimates are commonly used to determine the economic performance of a whole country or region, and to make international comparisons. 8

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/

The new BECH Index is based on the three-sector theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-sector_theory

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World Demand for Information Technology is Still Heading East - The BECH Index 2019

About the Author

Hans Peter Bech Hans Peter Bech is an Amazon bestselling author. He is a frequent blogger on how to make information technology multinationals global market leaders and has written several books and numerous whitepapers on business development in the IT industry. Hans Peter also facilitates workshops for the TBK AcademyÂŽ and is an advisor for governments and companies. He holds a M.Sc. in macroeconomics and political science from the University of Copenhagen. More about Hans Peter Bech

TBK-WIPA-034

Other publications by the author

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