Institute for Palestine Studies Seminar on “East Mediterranean Gas Prospects: Production and Markets” Beirut on 26 November 2016
Energy Prospects in the Eastern Mediterranean A Turkish Perspective
Çağatay Erciyes Ambassador of Turkey to Lebanon 1
NATURAL GAS DISCOVERIES IN THE EAST MED New off shore natural gas discoveries in the region can be used for ...
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NATURAL GAS DISCOVERIES IN THE EAST MED
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NATURAL GAS DISCOVERIES IN THE EAST MED
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NATURAL GAS DISCOVERIES IN THE EAST MED
Aphrodite (~130 bcm)
Leviathan (622 bcm)
Tanin (34 bcm)
Tamar (283 bcm)
Dalit (14 bcm) Dolphin (~ 5 bcm)
OFFSHORE ISRAEL ~ 140 KM
Yam Tethys (Mari B ve Noa) (30 bcm) [almost depleted]
Mari-B
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Potential CYPRUS ISLAND Aphrodite (~110 bcm)
LEVIATHAN BASIN
3,5 tcm natural gas. 1,7 billion barrels of oil
LEBANON Exploration will start. (resource potential 2,7 tcm according to Lebanese Authorities)
(U.S. Geological Survey)
EGYPT + 2 tcm in Nile Delta Basin (including the Zohr discovery)
ISRAEL Tamar (283 bcm) Leviathan (622 bcm)
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Economic Challanges Need to attract large sums of new investment to commercialise the resources
Low Oil Prices
Emerging new LNG producers/exporters (US, Mozambique, Australia) 7
Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Political Challenges A tormented region Israel-Palestinian Conflict Relations of Israel with neighbouring countries Cyprus Issue Conflict in Syria Maritime Boundary Delimitation Issues
Recent gas discoveries added new momentum to an already volatile region: liability or opportunity? 8
TURKEY’S NATURAL GAS STRATEGY Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Political Challenges
CYPRUS ISSUE Off-shore hydrocarbon resources around Cyprus Island belong to the two communities of the Island and be explored and exploited on the basis of equal rights and joint decisions The negotiations for a comprehensive settlement aiming to establish a new partnership in Cyprus under the UN Auspices have reached a critical phase The issue should be dealth after the settlement by the new Federal Government 9
Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Political Challenges TURKEY strongly believes that hydrocarbon resources could serve as a source of peace, cooperation and welfare for the parties involved. TURKEY has been increasingly engaging in energy projects including oil and gas pipelines in collaboration with its neighbours and partners.
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Opportunities THE NEED TO ADOPT AN INTEGRATED AND HOLISTIC APPROACH TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE EXPLOITATION OF HYDRO-CARBON RESOURCES
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Opportunities COMMERCIALTY OF THE PROJECTS
INVESTMENT CLIMATE
POLITICAL STABILITY
GOVERNMENTS’ POLICIES
MAIN FACTORS TO SHAPE THE ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REGION
REGIONAL RELATIONS
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Possible Scenerios to Export Options to reach markets PIPELINE TO EGYPT & JORDAN
LNG FACILITIES IN ISRAEL & CYPRUS
Market Size ?
(~ $10 billion USD)
Impact of Zohr Disvovery ?
Cost Effectiveness?
Cost Effectiveness?
SUB-SEA PIPELINE TO GREECE (~1700 km) Technical Feasibility? Cost Effectiveness?
SUB-SEA PIPELINE TO TURKEY (~500 km ~ $2.5 billion USD) Big National Market Conveninet Transit Route w/infrastructure
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Possible Scenerios & Turkey’s Role o o o o o o
Some Facts and Figures 7th biggest economy in Europe and 17th in the world. Tripled its GDP in 10 years to $ 800 bln. Fastest growing economy in Europe. One of the fastest growing energy markets. Imports: 99% of gas, 91% of oil Energy import dependency 75% Annual energy demand increase +4%
o o Energy demand to double by 2023 o Investment required by 2023: $ 100 bln
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TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Growing domestic market for East-Med Gas-Oil
TURKEY’S CRUDE OIL IMPORTS
25 Million Tons IN 2015
Iran % 22.4
Russia % 12.4 Saudi Arabia % 9.6
Iraq % 45.6
Source: Turkish Ministry of Energy 2015 Report
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TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Growing domestic market for East-Med Gas-Oil
TURKEY’S NATURAL GAS IMPORTS
48.4 BCM IN 2015
Azerbaijan % 12.7 Russia % 55.3 Iran % 16.2
Source: Turkish Ministry of Energy 2015 Report
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TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Growing domestic market for East-Med Gas-Oil
TURKEY’S NATURAL GAS STRATEGY Diversifying its gas supply routes and source countries
Becoming an energy trading hub
Contributing to the energy security of Europe
Increasing its LNG import capacity by adding FSRU & UGS Creating the necessary market conditions through legislative work 17
TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Cost effective transit route for East-Med Gas-Oil
TURKEY
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TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Cost effective transit route for East-Med Gas-Oil
BTC & BTE Pipelines
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TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Cost effective transit route for East-Med Gas-Oil
TANAP PROJECT
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TURKEY’S ENERGY PROFILE Cost effective transit route for East-Med Gas-Oil
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Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Possible Scenerios & Turkey’s Role TURKEY SYRIA TRNC
40%
700%
GCA
LEBANON
7 bcma 1995
APHRODITE
+ 1 tcm
EXPORT POTENTIAL +10 bcma (2020)
2015
2035
TAMAR LEVIATHAN
TOTAL GAS DISCOVERY
51 bcma
+70 bcma
DALIT
ZOHR YAM TETHYS GAZA MARINE
THE MOST FEASIBLE AND TECHNICALLY VIABLE OPTION IS THROUGH and TO TURKEY
GAZA 22
Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil Possible Scenerios & Turkey’s Role CONCLUSION
Turkey is the safest, most feasible and profitable gateway for Eastern Mediterranean natural gas to markets 23
Institute for Palestine Studies Seminar on “East Mediterranean Gas Prospects: Production and Markets” Beirut on 26 November 2016
Energy Prospects in the Eastern Mediterranean A Turkish Perspective
Çağatay Erciyes Ambassador of Turkey to Lebanon 24