by AIDAN REED Staff Writer
With the 2020 Election drawing closer, the pressure is mounting on President Trump to ensure his reelection.
State of the Presidency Graphic: T. VerVane
Amid pressures from the upcoming 2020 presidential campaign as well as renewed infamy from the recordbreaking government shutdown, President Trump delivered his 2019 State of the Union address this past January. Repeated calls for unity were largely drowned out by the president’s famous rhetoric, lambasting his enemies and touting his achievements two years into his term. Between the repeated references to his self-proclaimed diplomatic success with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as well as a supposed military victory over ISIS, Trump used his platform to renew calls for border security, namely his long-promised and equally delayed southern border wall. Since early on in his initial campaign, the president’s base has fanatically rallied around the idea of said wall, placing relentless pressure on the President of The United States (POTUS) to actually deliver on his primary campaign promise. As the 2020 presidential race draws ever nearer, Trump has begun to focus heavily upon his border wall campaign, seeking a tangible success to show to his base. This has most recently been shown by the president’s hotly-contested state of emergency along the southern border, allowing him to circumvent Congress in appropriating funds for a wall. Though this recent move is being sued and contested by many states, upon reaching the Supreme Court it will likely be approved due to the current conservative and pro-Trump politics of the court. Far from the standard and unrelenting “fire and fury” of the POTUS’ political speeches, the 2019 State of the Union address contained numerous messages of unity and hope for bipartisan action. Ranging from calls for healthcare reform to foreign military intervention, this uncharacteristic shift towards campaign issues popular with the Democratic Party represent part of the “new” Trump that we are likely to see in the coming months running up to the 2020 election, seeking to retain his conservative base while also trying to obtain moderate liberal voters through bipartisan 18 // BGQ // March 2019
action and progress. Despite an apparent shift towards bipartisanship, the president has always maintained his classic speech tactic of fear-mongering, and the State of the Union was no exception. This rhetoric centered around border security, with numerous references to human trafficking, drug smuggling, and violent crime committed by illegal immigrants. While consistent fear-mongering has kept Trump’s base energized, hyper-fixation on border security has done and will do much to maintain popular support for the POTUS in the coming months as his “state of emergency” border wall will likely face a gauntlet of constitutional and legislative challenges. While the 2020 election is little more than a year and a half away, national politics is already gearing up for the electoral battle. The Trump campaign has begun strongly in 2019, maintaining focus on its successes while continuing his aforementioned rhetoric, and smear campaigns. If the president’s attempts at bipartisan action and fulfillment of his campaign promises prove fruitful, the Democratic Party will have an extremely challenging election ahead of them. Historically, over 70% of incumbent U.S. presidents seeking reelection succeed. Combining this statistic with the current turbulence within the Democratic Party gives the POTUS outstanding odds of reelection in 2020. As the field of Democratic hopefuls currently stands, save Bernie Sanders, there is very likely not enough substantial difference between the candidates and Trump to offer true opposition and draw leftist votes. No matter who does eventually obtain the Democratic nomination, the president will assuredly run a smear campaign against them consisting of anti-socialist accusations and rhetoric, as we saw even in his 2019 State of the Union address. Such a campaign would likely bring in more independent votes, and win Trump the election. //
