Teles intelligence
micro market report san gabriel valley MARCH 2012 | SINGLE FAMILY HOMES REPORT
March 2012
Ask The Right Questions
Conventional wisdom tells us to always ask “why?” Why do we do it that
Sharran Srivatsaa Chief Executive Officer, Teles Intelligence
way? Why does it work like that? Why should I listen to her? Why are you reminding me to ask why? Why? Generally, when presented with any kind of trend, we have also been taught to think in a similar way and ask why we are seeing that trend? For example, our analysts found a study that discussed the median price of home sales and its upward trend. The report also answered the “why” and did a detailed job of answering why there was an upward trend. For the same period, we also found a study that showed the median price of home sales and a downward trend, and similarly the report accurately analyzed “why” there was a downward trend. We asked “why” and got good answers - but can both reports be correct? Both reports were in fact accurate. We realized quickly that the question we should be asking first, specifically regarding trends, is not “why” but “what”. We are arguing about the value of first asking “what” the trend is really about versus accepting the trend for what it is and only being curious about “why” it is that way.
In the provided, one report found that across the United States, the median price of new home sales showed an upward trend while the other report actually referred to median price of existing home sales drifting downward. Big difference. Now lets ask why. The house price gap between distressed and non-distressed properties continues to widen, especially since distressed sales constitute approximately 30% of home sales. Specifically in California, 35% of homeowners are not only underwater on their mortgage but also near negative equity (those with 5% equity or less). In hindsight, it makes sense. We should first understand what we are looking at and only then try to understand why it is that way. What do you think?
All the Best!
S harr an S ri vats aa
Reading the Report
“Each Micro Market area contains an analysis of current conditions and past trends. In order to take the most away from this report, it is important to understand how to read each micro market.
The Data presents statistical information about past and current conditions, comparing the previous year’s month to the current month. Each statistic is compiled from sales data during the month of the respective year. It is then analyzed by Percent Change, which is calculated by taking Current Value minus Past Value and then divided by Past Value.
The Numbers is a compilation of important take-away statistics for each area to gain a quick understanding of market conditions. Median Sales Price and Days on Market are 12 month averages for the period ending in the current month. The values for Properties for Sale and Shadow Inventory are presented in both text and graphical form to show the relationship of Shadow to Active Inventory.
The Yearly Trend presents the Median Sales Prices for each month during the past year in graphical format to easily visualize the changes and help identify any trends in sales for that micro market.
Median Price:
Days of Market (Pending Sale):
A value that separates the upper half
The number of days that properties
of prices from the lower half of prices.
currently in escrow were on the market.
It can be interpreted like an average, however the extreme prices (high and
Month’s Supply of Inventory:
low) don’t hold undue influence.
The number of months it would take to sell all the properties listed for sale at
Average Price per Square Foot:
the current pace of sales and if no new
The price of each property divided by
listings entered the market.
their respective square footage then averaged across all properties sold in
Percent Under Contract:
the area for a given time period.
The ratio of properties for sale to properties pending sale.
Properties Sold:
The number of property transactions
Average Median Price for Last 12:
that closed and transferred ownership.
The Average Median Price for the Last 12 Months is sales data from 12 months
Properties Pending Sale:
ending in the identified month
The number of properties that entered escrow in preparation for sale.
Shadow Inventory:
Properties in Pre-Foreclosure, Bank Properties For Sale:
Owned or Auction as identified by
The number of properties on the
ForeclosureRadar.com
market and seeking buyers.
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san south gabriel bay San Gabriel Valley Macro Market
Eagle Rock
La Crescenta
Altadena
Glendale
San Gabriel
Arcadia
La Canada Flintridge
San Marino
Micro Market Report : March 2012
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los orange angeles county Pasadena South Pasadena
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
San Gabriel Valley Macro Market DATA *
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$707,800
$686,500
-3.0%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$392
$408
4.1%
Properties Sold .......................................................
256
213
-16.8%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
251
302
20.3%
Properties For Sale ................................................
1168
716
-38.7%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
70
73
3.8%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
4.6
3.4
-26.3%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
21.5%
42.2%
96.3%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$777,854
$687,208
-11.7%
*Information obtained from iTech MLS and Foreclosure Radar for all areas in San Gabriel Valley Mirco Market Report. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
$686
(in hundred thousands)
$707
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
Altadena DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$425,000
$461,000
8.5%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$296
$291
-1.7%
Properties Sold .......................................................
27
22
-18.5%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
21
44
109.5%
Properties For Sale ................................................
142
82
-42.3%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
81
57
-29.6%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
5.3
3.7
-29.1%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
14.8%
53.7%
262.8%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$494,462
$440,615
-10.9%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
(in hundred thousands)
$461
$425
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$440,615
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
82
DAYS ON MARKET**
75
SHADOW INVENTORY
173
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Arcadia DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$890,000
$692,000
-22.2%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$393
$398
1.3%
Properties Sold .......................................................
52
38
-26.9%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
49
34
-30.6%
Properties For Sale ................................................
132
117
-11.4%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
51
63
23.5%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
2.5
3.1
21.3%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
37.1%
29.1%
-21.7%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$843,000
$839,231
-0.4%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$692
S A L E S
$890
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$839,231
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
117
DAYS ON MARKET**
65
SHADOW INVENTORY
56
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Eagle Rock DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$438,000
$436,000
-0.5%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$318
$378
18.9%
Properties Sold .......................................................
10
11
10.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
10
16
60.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
69
38
-44.9%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
56
48
-14.3%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
6.9
3.5
-49.9%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
14.5%
42.1%
190.5%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$443,231
$438,692
-1.0%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$436
S A L E S
$438
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$438,692
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
38
DAYS ON MARKET**
66
SHADOW INVENTORY
58
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Glendale DATA *
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$628,000
$544,000
-13.4%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$311
$298
-4.2%
Properties Sold .......................................................
47
52
10.6%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
50
75
50.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
285
146
-48.8%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
77
95
23.4%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
6.1
2.8
-53.7%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
17.5%
51.4%
192.8%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$630,077
$564,692
-10.4%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
S A L E S M E D I A N
$544
(in hundred thousands)
$628
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$564,692
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
146
DAYS ON MARKET**
78
SHADOW INVENTORY
344
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
La Canada Flintridge DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,278,000
$900,000
-29.6%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$447
$480
7.4%
Properties Sold .......................................................
15
21
40.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
17
31
82.4%
Properties For Sale ................................................
100
65
-35.0%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
74
89
20.3%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
6.7
3.1
-53.6%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
17.0%
47.7%
180.5%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$1,134,538
$1,065,333
-6.1%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
$900
S A L E S
$1.278
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$1,065,333
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
65
DAYS ON MARKET**
81
SHADOW INVENTORY
60
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
La Crescenta DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$575,000
$532,000
-7.5%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$328
$326
-0.6%
Properties Sold .......................................................
13
22
69.2%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
21
29
38.1%
Properties For Sale ................................................
105
41
-61.0%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
92
87
-5.4%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
8.1
1.9
-76.9%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
20.0%
70.7%
253.7%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$584,077
$525,846
-10.0%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
S A L E S M E D I A N
$532
(in hundred thousands)
$575
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$525,846
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
41
DAYS ON MARKET**
88
SHADOW INVENTORY
134
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
Pasadena DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$560,000
$573,000
2.3%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$385
$358
-7.0%
Properties Sold .......................................................
90
68
-24.4%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
83
104
25.3%
Properties For Sale ................................................
387
229
-40.8%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
89
84
-5.6%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
4.3
3.4
-21.7%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
21.4%
45.4%
111.8%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$593,231
$577,538
-2.6%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
(in hundred thousands)
$573
$560
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$577,538
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
229
DAYS ON MARKET**
81
SHADOW INVENTORY
325
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
San Gabriel DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$490,000
$514,000
4.9%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$318
$334
5.0%
Properties Sold .......................................................
29
14
-51.7%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
28
21
-25.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
126
99
-21.4%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
49
94
91.8%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
4.3
7.1
62.8%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
22.2%
21.2%
-4.5%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$523,385
$537,308
2.7%
Average Median Price for Last 3 Months .......... *Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
$514
$490
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$537,308
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
99
DAYS ON MARKET**
65
SHADOW INVENTORY
65
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
San Marino DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$1,532,000
$1,625,000
6.1%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$604
$576
-4.6%
Properties Sold .......................................................
13
13
0.0%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
14
11
-21.4%
Properties For Sale ................................................
50
28
-44.0%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
82
64
-22.0%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
3.8
2.2
-44.0%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
28.0%
39.3%
40.3%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$1,703,385
$1,575,846
-7.5%
Average Median Price for Last 3 Months .......... *Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
M E D I A N
S A L E S
$1.625
$1.532
(in hundred thousands)
P R I C E
yearly trend
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$1,575,846
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
28
DAYS ON MARKET**
71
SHADOW INVENTORY
4
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
South Pasadena DATA
MAR 2011
MAR 2012
% CHANGE
Median Price ..........................................................
$890,000
$1,132,000
27.2%
Average Price per Square Foot ...........................
$441
$534
21.1%
Properties Sold .......................................................
7
4
-42.9%
Properties Pending Sale .......................................
8
12
50.0%
Properties For Sale ................................................
57
17
-70.2%
Days on Market (Pending Sale) ...........................
57
69
21.1%
Month’s Supply of Inventory ................................
8.1
4.3
-47.8%
Percent Under Contract ........................................
14.0%
70.6%
402.9%
Average Median Price for Last 12 Months ........
$829,154
$884,385
6.7%
*Information obtained from Broker Metrics, The MLS and Foreclosure Radar. Statistics are subject to change due to individual real estate company reporting disciplines.
S A L E S
(in hundred thousands)
$1.132
P R I C E
yearly trend
M E D I A N
$890
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Micro Market Report : March 2012
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
telesintelligence.com
the numbers median sales price**
$884,385
PROPERTIES FOR SALE
17
DAYS ON MARKET**
58
SHADOW INVENTORY
24
**12 month average
active listings
s h ad o w invent o r y
Teles intelligence where data meets reason
March 2012 : Micro Market Report
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References
CONTACTS:
Laron Turley Director of Research, Teles Intelligence laron.turley@telesproperties.com Steve Shull Chief Strategist, Teles Intelligence steve.shull@telesproperties.com Sharran Srivatsaa Chief Executive Officer, Teles Intelligence sharran.srivatsaa@telesproperties.com
location:
Teles Intelligence 11990 San Vicente Blvd, Suite 100 Los Angeles, Ca 90049
Phone:
424.203.1800 email:
info@telesintelligence.com
Teles intelligence MARCH 2012 | LOS ANGELES | ORANGE COUNTY | SAN GABRIEL | SOUTH BAY Š2012 Teles Properties, Inc. Teles Properties is a registered trademark.