MODELING THE EFFECT OF BATAM-BINTAN BRIDGES TO ECONOMIC, POPULATION, AND LAND USE ASPECT IN BATAM AND BINTAN ISLAND Tengku Munawar CHALIL Staf of Directorate Local Autonomy Affair Deputy for Regional Development and Local Autonomy Affair National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) Jakarta, Indonesia Email: nawaruto@yahoo.co.id ABSTRACT Batam and Bintan are free trade zone and free seaport that prepared to become a major economic growth center of the Riau Islands Provinces. Batam continues to grow rapidly but the limitations of land and lack of access to the hinterland areas are the development problems. Then development in Bintan island still far left behind compared to Batam and Bintan is not ready yet to become a free trade area. Therefore to answer the problem, Batam-Bintan bridges are planned to build with the goal of equitable development between regions of Batam and Bintan island. There is two scenarios to see the impact of Batam-Bintan bridges (BBB). In the first scenario where Batam-Bintan not exist, Batam grows rapidly but its growth slowed at the end of the simulation due to the limited carrying capacity of land led to declining growth of Batam. In addition, Bintan Growth slowly increased until 25 years later, in the end the growth has not been able equal with Batam growth today. In the second scenario where Batam-Bintan Bridges exist, the behavior of the dynamic model of Batam and Bintan show the effect of Batam-Bintan bridges, there are three effects of the multiplier effect, spin-off effect and spill-over effect. Each of these effects have a positive impact on the city of Batam and Bintan regency. Keywords: system dynamic, demography, economy, land use. Introduction The ratification Law 46/2007 and Law 47/2007 about free trade zone and free seaport in Batam and Bintan and Law 28/2008 about national spatial development plan, Batam and Bintan island being prepared to become one of national economic frontline area. Therefore, needed much infrastructure to support development in Batam and Bintan, and the one if infrastructure whom become concerned are Batam-Bintan Bridges (BBB). The plan of Batam-Bintan Bridges are planned in Riau Province Spatial Plan 2008-2028, Batam Spatial Plan 2008-2028, and Bintan Spatial Plan 2008-2028. Thus plan said that Batam-Bintan Bridges developed with purpose enhanced connectivity between Batam and Bintan region area, enhanced economic strategic sector, and increase the investation and enhance regional competences. In spite of that, Batam has grown rapidly in ten years, and in 2009 population in Batam reached 919.449 people with population density 957 people/km2. Beside, Bintan grown slowly as in 2009 the population only reached 10% population in Batam, about 127.404 people with population density 64 people/km2. It shown that there is no equal growth between Batam and Bintan. This paper shown the model of the effect of Batam-Bintan Bridges to population, economy, and land use aspect in Batam and Bintan. Using System Dynamic Model in Regional Analysis There are many models used to regional analysis, each model has plus and minus to understanding the behaviour of regional dynamics. Wang (1993) in Chunyang et al (2004) said that System Dynamic Models not only explain about relation between system element within different level, but also can deal with dynamic process with feedback. Moreover, it can predict the complex system change under
Conceptual Problem Definiton
System Conceptualization
Model Defined
Repair & Enhancement
Model Evaluation
Model Analysis
Technical
Figure 1 System Dynamics Procedure Analysis (Robert et.al, 1993)
the different “what-if� scenarios, which makes ut a good tools and be widely used in different fields of natural science, social science and engineering technology. The making of System Dynamics model assume system behaviour determined by feedback mechanism. In that case, after define system boundary (which defined between internal and external variable). The next step is describe feedback loop, dynamic model done gradually and iteratively (Robert et.al., 1983:8-10; Saeed, 1995: 234-245 in Haryono, 2009:64). Procedure of System Dynamic are: (1) Problem Identification; (2) System Conceptualization; (3) Model Defined; (4) Model Behaviour Analysis; (5) Model evaluation; (6) Analysis and use the model. Figure 1 show the procedure of System Dynamics analysis. In this paper, dynamic model used to determined how the effect of Batam-Bintan Bridges to population, economic and land uses changes in Batam and Bintan. This dynamic model try to model regional development in Batam and Bintan Island. With intervention scenario establishing Batam-Bintan Bridges, so could identified the behaviour of Batam-Bintan Bridges to population, economic, and land
use in Batam and Bintan. Creating Dynamic Model There is three main variable to explain regional dynamic there are population, economics and the actibities that indicate from land use. The conceptualization of model can be explain with a causal loop as seen as figure 2. There are 3 loops, each relationship between main variable explain as follows: 1. Loops 1 (positive loops), that connect population and economics. It is explain that in a region which is increasing of population would be increase many new workers and could create new employment as the effect of specialized economics in a city, which is, many workers hire and increase the income, increasing the income could improve GDRP and improve the economic growth and Figure 2 accelerate personal income. Also, in second arrow, that its Population, Economic, and Land have positive feedback, increasing the personal income Use Causal Loops will pull many in-migration which is increase population. 2. Loops 2 (negative loops), that connect population and land use. Increasing population causing increase land demand, makes land supplied (non-built up land and forest) had decrease. However, many non-built-up land would increase the population. Potential land created activity that invites people come. 3. Loops 3 (negative loops), that connect between economic and land use. The potential land can be new chance to convert into productive land with build economics activities like industrial use, tourism, commercial use, mining, etc. The economics activities increase GDRP. So in invers arrow, the feedback causing decrease land supplied causing decline of environmental carrying capacity that cause decline of economic growth. Based basic causal loops in figure 2, the variable was broke apart into 3 submodel, there are population submodel has developed as following figure:
Figure 3 Population Causal Loops Submodel
Figure 4 Economic Causal Loops Submodels
Figure 5 Land-use Causal Loops Submodels Land use submodel was broke apart too into six sub-submodel, each arrows in figure 5 have definition in a in a submodel, the flows mean the convertion a land. Figure 6 shown the mental model of land use convertion happen when modelled a land use dynamics.
Agriculural Uses Submodel
Residential Uses Submodel
Carrying Capacity Submodel
Mining Uses Submodel
Industrial Uses Submodel
Tourism and Commercial uses Figure 6 Sub-Submodel Landuse convertion.
By combining each submodel and connect them into one system, this paper try to translate the mental model into Stock and Flows diagram using PowerSim Constructor. The software are helpfull to develop SFD model that shown on figure 7.
Figure 7 Stock and Flows Model Population, Economics, and Landuse changes (Chalil, 2011) Evaluating system dynamics model in this paper using static method by Root-Mean Square Percent Error (RMSPE) with formula:
1 −
The method compare between simulated data and factual data for verification of the model. This paper examine three variables to verificated, The RMSPE is below 10% so the model can be accepted for predict urban and regional dynamic in Batam and Bintan. Batam-Bintan Bridges (BBB) project p in Batam and Bintan In Indonesia, the regulation of spatial planning and development planning have legal base in Law 17 /2005 on National Long-Term Term Development Plan 2005-2025 2025 and Law 26/2007 on Spatial Planning where diferentiate in Government Regulation Regul No.26 years 2008 on National Spatial Plan. In Government Regulation No.26 years 2008 there is stated that Strategic Economic Zone in Indonesia have a following criteria: a. Have a potential rapidly economic growth. b. Have a leading sector which can motorize motor national economic growth c. Have export potential d. Supported by infrastructure and economic activity support facility e. Have a high tech that support economic activity Batam and Bintan are categorized as one of national economic zone in Indonesia and the one special economic zone (KEK). Thrice with Karimun District, that make thus three island are spearhead of Indonesia economic development againts Singapore and Malaysia in Malacca Strait. The strategic location among two developed country (Malaysia and Singapore) establish a one investment region which mean that three region has cooperation without limited by country boundary. This cooperation between three country named as SIJORI Triangle.
Figure 8 (a) Batam , Bintan, and Karimun District Orientation; (b) Batam-Bintan Bintan Bridges; (c) Land Use in Batam and Bintan. Batam is categorized as big cities in Indonesia, and the biggest cities in Kepulauan Riau Provinces. Population in Batam are 992.095 residents in 2009. The population in Batam District grew gr rapidly with average growth rate is 10,59%, 10,59%, that can be assumed Batam will be a metropolitan cities in Indonesia with the population in near future reach one million resident with population density near nine-hundred hundred residents par square-kilometres, square with Main employeer er sector in Batam is industrial industri sector, and the second is commercial sector. That is prove that Batam has industrial sector as basic sector dan generate economic in its region. Batam also has rapid economic growth, as shown,
economic growh rate in Batam in 2008 reach 7,52% which is bigger bigger than national growth rate. As can be seen, main land use in Batam is industrial uses that almost covers 30% of the land. Industrial uses is the fastest convertion rate compared other, in 2010 the industrial convertion rate is 943,73 Ha/years. Otherwise, Bintan not as growth as Batam. The population there only 127.404 resident in 2009, the population grew slowly with average growth rate is 1,86%. The population density is only 64 residents par square-kilometres. kilometres. Main employeer sector in Bintan is Industrial sector, and the second one is commercial sector. The economic growth in Bintan in year 2009 only grew 5,11% which mean slightly above average national economic growth 4,4%. Contrastly with the land use in Bintan, 19,34% of the land uses in Bintan is agricultural uses, but industrial uses,, which is the leading sector in Bintan, only cover 176,49 Ha in 2007. In case for created balanced growth between thus two island, government of Kepulauan Riau Provinces plan to connect Batam-Bintan Batam using road infrastructure, one main project is Batam-Bintan Batam Bridges. Batam-Bintan Bintan bridges are created with purpose as follows: a. Created new growth pole with increase the accesibility in Batam, Bintan, and around. b. Balancing interregional development with the result that that the flow of people and goods become more fluently. c. Increasing the development of strategic sector in the region for enhance investation and increase regional competences d. Become a role model for inter-island inter island transportation infrastructure in Indonesia. Cost for creating Batam-Bintan Bintan bridges need investation Rp 3.175 Trillion or US$ 317,5 million. Budgetting method for create the bridges is Public-Private Private Partnership (PPP) by Build-OperateTransfer (BOT).
Figure 9 Ilustration of Batam-Bintan Bridges (Bappeda Kep. Riau, 2009) Using System Dynamic Model for Regional Dynamic (Batam and Bintan Island)
By using System Dynamic ic Model which has developed before, before, regional dynamic in Batam and Bintan island are divided into two scenario; (1) Regional dynamic in in Batam and Bintan without Batam and Bintan Bridges, and (2) Regional dynamic in Batam and Bintan with Batam and Bintan Bridges which is divided again into 3 (three) sub-scenario: sub scenario: (1) Pessimistic Scenario, (2) Moderate Scenario, and (3) Optimistic Scenario. Scenario The period of simulation model are 20 years (2007-2027) and the model assumption BatamBatam Bintan Bridges are established in 2015. And every variable outside system boundary (national growth th rate, government regulation, birth and mortality indices, etc) are ar assumed fixed and nothing changes. First, the regional dynamic in Batam and Bintan Island without Batam and Bintan Bridges Scenario. Total population in Batam increased as usual with population growth rate 12,8% and in the end of simulation (2027) totall population in Batam reach 6.481.211 people (9 times more than total population in 2007) with population density 6.231 people par squaresquare
kilometres. Meanwhile, total population in Bintan still grow slowly with rate 1,9% and in the end of simulation totall population in Bintan is 178.481 people people with population density 64 people par square-kilometres. kilometres. In that case, there are a very imbalance growth between Batam in Bintan in next ext 20 years without connected by Batam-Bintan Batam Bridges. In economic aspect, investation station in Batam grow with rate 12,87% that make in the end of simulation total investation in Batam grow twice than total investation in 2007 and GDRP grow thrice compared with GDRP in first year (2007). Meanwhile, in Bintan investation grow 8,3 times and GDRP grow 8,2 times. Also in land use aspect, grow of economic and population in Batam increase the amount of total built up land decrease the non-built non up land, till the end of 2016, carrying capacity in Batam has reach the limit that make the development development in Batam decline. In land use simulation in Batam, many land use have reach the limit of total alocation that permitted like industrial uses, residential uses, commercial and tourism uses, meanwhile the demand of land can not be stop that make incomfortable incomfortable activities in Batam. Meanwhile, increase the amounr off total built up land did not make any trouble because 20 years into the future, availability of land still enough for supply land demand. Dynamic of the population, economic, and land use in Batam and Bintan shown in figure 10 and figure 11.
Figure 10 Population (RMSPE: 9,35%), 9,35%) Economic (RMSPE: 3,23%) and Landuse Dynamic in Batam without Batam-Bintan Batam Bridges Scenario
Figure 11 Population (RMSPE: 0,56%), %), Economic (RMSPE: 5,76%) %) and Landuse Dynamic in Bintan without Batam-Bintan Batam Bridges Scenario After using system dynamic in the scenario without Batam-Bintan Batam Bintan Bridges, the second scenario is using Batam-Bintan Bintan Bridges to understood the effect of Batam-Bintan Batam Bridges in Batam andd Bintan development. The intervention in the model using a intervention submodel in economic, population and land use. The effect of Batam-Bintan Batam Bintan Bridges are divided into three sub-scenario: scenario: (1) Pessimistic; (2) Moderate; and (3) Optimistic Scenario. After Afte running the model, the effect has resume in table 1 below. Table 1: Effect of Batam-Bintan Batam Bridges Without BBB Condition
Batam (2027)
Bintan (2027)
Changes of Precondition because BBB Affect Pessimistic Moderat Scenario Optimistic Scenario Scenario Batam Bintan Batam Bintan Batam Bintan (2027) (2027) (2027) (2027) (2027) (2027)
6481211
178481
-25,0%
+142%
-44%
+133%
-61,2%
+125%
301682
1135,8
-6,00%
+14%
-9,70%
+21%
-13%
+29,3%
63019
14516,49
-5,28%
+3,69%
+0,4%
+1,41%
+37,3%
-0,53%
19857,43
45930,29
+0,76%
-5,74%
-0,80%
-6,32%
-8,25%
+6,7%
20435,87
1838,69
-0,47%
+222,17%
-2,22%
+210,09%
-7,97%
+197,67%
11959
7729,48
-0,04%
+4,87%
+0,2%
+8,22%
+1,12%
+10,95%
10289,43
20181,56
-0,03%
+3,52%
+8,5%
+6,03%
+2,09%
+8%
6724,16
31228,66
-0,46%
+7,8%
+7,47%
-8,30%
+39,3%
-8,64%
Pre-Condition Condition
Population 1
Total Population
Regional Economics Investation (Billion 1 Rupiah) GDRP (Billion 2 Rupiah) Land Uses 1 2 3 4 5
Forestry (Ha) Residential Uses (Ha) Industrial Uses (Ha) Tourism and Commercial Uses (Ha) Agricultural Uses (Ha)
Without BBB Condition
Pre-Condition
6
Batam (2027) 5739,9
Mining Uses (Ha)
Bintan (2027) 12331,33
Changes of Precondition because BBB Affect Pessimistic Moderat Scenario Optimistic Scenario Scenario Batam Bintan Batam Bintan Batam Bintan (2027) (2027) (2027) (2027) (2027) (2027) -0,20% -0,70% +1,43% -1,70% +7,84% -8,64%
There are three effect identified in thus three scenario: (1) Spin-Off Effect; (2) Spill-Over Effect; and (3) Multiplier Effect. Multiplier effect shown by rapid increase in GDRP and Investation in Bintan when Batam-Bintan Bridges already established in 2015. In running simulation, in pessimistic, moderate and optimistic scenario investation in Bintan increase 14%, 21% and 29,3% from pre-condition scenario without Batam-Bintan Bridges. Meanwhile, investation in Batam decrease slightly compared with pre-condition scenario. Decrease in Batam in pessimistic, moderate and optimistic scenario are -6,9%, -9,7 and -13%. In simulation conlude that multiplier effect is lost investation in Batam give a multiply 2-3 times increase investation in Bintan. Spill-over effect, this effect indicated with rapidly grow of industrial uses in Bintan shown the fluently flow of goods which is make industry search a new land to start production activity. Meanwhile, flow of human shown in rapid migration in Bintan which can be seen in increase of total population in Bintan and slightly decrease of total population in Batam. That conclude Batam-Bintan Bridges make access of transportation to go cross Batam and Bintan make easy. Spin-Off effect, which show with enhanced industrial sector in Batam and Bintan, also enhanced tourism and commercial sector in Bintan, that indicated increasingly of GDRP and increase of built up land. This positive impact show the potent Batam-Bintan Bridges to enhance strategic economic sector in Batam and Bintan. Conclusion To determine the effect of Batam-Bintan Bridges in Batam and Bintan development , this paper use system dynamic model analysis with intervention scenario. System dynamic analysis useful to predict regional dynamic. This paper using 2 scenario, a scenario in Batam and Bintan without Batam-Bintan Bridges else a scenario in Batam-Bintan with BatamBintan Bridges which divided into 3 sub-scenario: (1) pesimistic scenario; (2) moderate scenario and (3) optimistic scenario. By running the model, can be seen Batam-Bintan Bridges have a good impact in Batam and Bintan development. As can be shown, Batam-Bintan Bridges create a balance between Batam and Bintan. When established, Batam-Bintan Bridges increase the economic growth and population in Bintan, also push the economic strategic sector both off two island. Batam are pushed in Industrial sector and Bintan are pushed in tourism and commercial sector. The effect are identified are multiplier effect, spill-over effect, and spin-off effect. The effect is have to be supported by national, provincial and local government by regulation, the regulation are: 1. Using Batam-Bintan bridges for strengthening strategic sector in Batam and Bintan, and develop industrial zone in Batam-Tanjung Sauh-Bintan as main industrial sector between two island and Batam-Bintan Bridges as backbone infrastructure.
2.
3.
Create economic forward-backward linkages between Batam and Bintan, push the economic strategic sector based insentive, and connected the growth pole in Batam and Bintan. Ensure land use activity in Batam and Bintan for not exceed than carrying capacity both two island, controlling spatial plan for prevent urban sprawl and make sure intensification of land uses.
Acknowledgement: This paper based on the writer post-graduate research thesis in Department of Regional and City Planning, Bandung Institute Technology, Indonesia.
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