thegardenisland.com
THE GARDEN ISLAND
HOUSING OUTLOOK FOR 2025
Friday, December 27, 2024 • B3
Stubborn mortgage rates, rebounding sales, and flat prices in most places
6%. She expects mortgage rates will fall enough to keep affordability level for buyers. Homeowners have built a reHome sales across the country should rebound in 2025 after two cord $5 trillion in home equity sluggish years. But buyers since the onset of COVID-19 and shouldn’t count on 30-year mortdelinquencies are near record lows. About four in 10 homeowngage rates dipping much below 6%. And homeowners in many ers have no mortgage and many parts of the country will be lucky of those who do are sitting on to capture price gains above 2% very low rates. Although that next year, according to the Na“lock-in” effect is waning as time passes, it is keeping many people tional Association of Realtors. in place. Realtor.com, however, has Tyrone Adams, president and named Colorado Springs, ColoCEO of the Colorado Association rado, as its top market for 2025 of Realtors, said as long as interand places Denver in the 20th spot, based on an above-average est rates remain where they are, rebound in the number of sales it will be hard to motivate owners and price gains after two flat with mortgage rates below 5% to years. A lot of what happens, sell. however, will depend on borrow“You will have to find a way to incentivize them to move,” he ing costs. said. For most owners, the slug“Mortgage rates may not move all that much unless somehow gish resale market hasn’t created we can address the national debt a hardship. in the longer term perspective,” By contrast, a quiet crisis consaid Lawrence Yun, NAR chief tinues among potential buyers. REG LOVETT / THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK economist during the group’s Renters are buying their first Real Estate Forecast Summit on homes much later in life, at age Sale pending at a home for sale in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Thursday, June 30, 2022. Dec. 12. “As long as this debt sit38, assuming they have a high back into the market and there enough income to make a puryear-to-date through November uation hangs around, I think the cuts next year. mortgage rate new normal will “While short-term rates will be are a lot more homes listed than than in the same period in 2021, chase, said Jessica Lautz, deputy probably be around 6%.” coming down, we don’t see long- has been the case in the past few and 10,000 fewer than in 2022. chief economist at the NAR. Firstyears. Yun predicts the median Nationally, home sales rose in In 2016, when President Donald term rates moving much,” said time buyers, who historically acOctober year-over-year, a longTrump started his first term, the Mike Fratantoni, chief economist home price in the U.S. will rise counted for four in 10 home U.S. debt stood at $20 trillion, with the Mortgage Bankers Asso- 2% next year and 2% in 2026. But awaited turn in the market. Yun sales, now account for just under even those modest gains won’t forecasts existing home sales na- one in four. Yun said. It has now surpassed ciation on a call with Yun and improve affordability if mortgage tionally could rise between 7% to $35 trillion as he starts his secThe rate of rental households other housing economists. “We rates remain stuck. is growing at three times the 12% next year, and then another ond term and is up five-fold since think long-term rates will stay Yun said the housing market pace of owning households, acwhere they are today.” 10% to 15% in 2026. New home 2000. With public debt so high, has endured a “couple of difficult sales should rise 11% next year He expects 30-year mortgage there is less private capital to incording to Redfin. For a variety of and then 8% in 2026, he said. reasons, fewer Americans are revest in mortgages, keeping rates rates will end next year at around years in transaction activity.” 6.5%, a major disappointment for From July 2021 through SeptemDanielle Hale, chief economist locating, choosing to settle down elevated. with Realtor.com, expects much The Federal Reserve has made would-be buyers looking to get a ber 2024, existing home sales rather than moving to advance three cuts to its key interest rate break when it comes to what their prospects, which contribmoved lower on a year-over-year weaker growth in home sales benchmark since September. Last they can afford. basis each month. In metro Den- than Yun — only 1.5%. And she is utes to a less dynamic housing Lower mortgage rates would week, the Fed’s policymakers inver and surrounding areas, about calling for much stronger gains in market, not to mention society, permit more first-time buyers median home prices nationally, Yun said. 20,000 fewer homes were sold dicated they would make fewer Aldo Svaldi THE DENVER POST
U.S. accuses Rocket Homes of illegal kickbacks in mortgage scheme REUTERS The top U.S. watchdog agency for consumer finance on Monday accused Rocket Homes, a unit of Rocket Companies, and The Jason Mitchell Group of real estate brokerages of an illegal kickback scheme to steer mortgage applications back to Rocket. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rocket Homes, one of the largest mortgage lenders in the United States, plied the real estate brokerages with referrals and other inducements so that the brokers and agents would steer real estate settlement business back to a Rocket affiliate. Jason Mitchell allegedly offered “dog bone” awards of $250 gift cards to agents making the most referrals back to favored partners, including Rocket affiliates Amrock and Rocket Mortgage, according to the CFPB. “Rocket engaged in a kickback scheme that discouraged home-buyers from comparison shopping and getting the best deal,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “At a time when homeownership feels out of reach for so many, companies should not illegally block competition in ways that drive up the cost of housing.” Representatives for Rocket Companies and The Jason Mitchell Group did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Monday’s announcement marked the third major action by the CFPB since Friday, following lawsuits against Walmart as well as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo over those banks’ alleged mishandling of fraud on peer-to-peer payments.