DRAFT:
Future of Cities Version 7/16/14
Project Overview | July 2014
Foresight Programme
“Helps make decisions today that are resilient to the future” Foresight’s major one to two-year studies looking at key issues 10 - 100 years in the future where science and technology are the main drivers for change, or offer key solutions
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Future of Cities Project Overview
Foresight Reports Cyber Trust
Flooding
2004
2005
Global Food
2011
Computer Trading
2012 Future of Cities Project Overview
Intelligent Infrastructure
Infectious Diseases
2006 Mental Capital
Land Use
2010
Migration
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Brain Science
2009
Obesity
2008
2007
Identity
Disasters
2013
Underpinning Policy with Evidence Major UK policy streams
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Flooding
Obesities
Mental Capital
Flooding & Coastal Defence
Tackling Obesities: Future Choices
Mental Capital & Wellbeing
Future of Cities Project Overview
The Future of UK Cities
The UK is one of the three most populous countries in the EU and one with the most cities It has one of EU’s highest shares of population living in a city or commuting zone (~74%) London is EU’s richest Metropolitan area
Cities are the locus of future UK growth Total resident population in Urban Audit core cities Eurostat (2011)
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Future of Cities Project Overview
Future of Cities Project There are many core questions, including: ●
What will urban life look like in the future?
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What makes a strong urban economy?
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How could urban form and structures evolve?
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How will city ambitions relate to national frameworks?
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How can cities of the future be made more resilient?
Health DPW Education
DECC
Project aim: Provide central and local government with an evidence base to support decisions in the short term which will lead to positive outcomes for cities in the long term Our objectives are to: i. Identify challenges and opportunities facing UK cities ii. Explore policy options with govt. departments and agencies 6
Future of Cities Project Overview
DEFRA BIS
DCLG
DCMS Transport
Our Approach We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures exercises to develop the evidence base. Academics Local Authorities Working papers
Sponsor Minister and GCSA
Major employers Third Sector
Evidence
City seminars
Central Government Practitioners
Project Team
Lead Expert Group
City futures
Young people Institutes Future Cities Catapult
Workshops
Two scales of analysis – UK System of Cities – Individual Cities as Systems
Future of Cities Project Overview
Two time horizons – 2040 – 2065
+ many others
Project themes
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LIVING IN CITIES • Belonging, Citizenship & Identity • Living In The City • People In Cities: The Numbers • Urban Social Disparities • Urban Housing Trends • Cities: The Cultural Dimension
URBAN FORM & INFRASTRUCTURE • Urban Form & Infrastructure: A Morphological Review • Future Of Retail & Urban Centres • Intercity Infrastructure • Connectivity Within Cities • Land
URBAN ECONOMIES • The Evolving Economic Performance Of The UK System of Cities • London - UK Relationship • Private Finance & Urban Development • Future City Economies • Urban Labour Markets
URBAN METABOLISM • Urban Metabolism: Flows Within & Between Cities • Urban Ecosystem Services • Impact of Climate Variability on urban Developments
SCIENCE OF CITIES • The Science Of Urban Planning Practice • What Is A City? • Coping With Change: Resilience, Adaptability & Path Dependence • Data & Smart Cities • Future Cities Global Scan
URBAN GOVERNANCE • Comparative Urban Governance • Public Finance & Cities • Cities & Public Policy • Corridors & Nodes • Leadership • Public Services
Future of Cities Project Overview
URBAN FUTURES Urban Scenarios Cities Visions Of Place
What we will provide, when Phase one: •
Working Papers
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Evidence Retrieval Platform
Phase two: •
Future Urban Scenarios Digital Environment (Eurban)
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Final Report
On-going: •
Workshop and seminar reports
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Blog posts
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Think Pieces
futureofcities.blog.gov.uk
Phase Two
Phase One June 2013
June 2014
Working Paper Publications
Future of Cities Project Overview
Nov 2014
Interim Report
Evidence Retrieval Platform (β-version)
Nov 2015
Scenarios & Futures work
Future Urban Scenarios Digital Environment
Drivers of Change The project identifies some of the key processes influencing the development of UK cities. These have wide ranging and interrelated implications.
Increasing population Ageing demography
UK population increase relative to 1981 levels (000s)
Increasing connectedness
Increasing diversity Environmental changes Technological innovation
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-11
2012-37
16M increase by 2062
Future of Cities Project Overview
2037-62
Ethnic diversity across LAs 2001 - 2051
Challenges The project has identified some of the key challenges faced by the UK city system and individual UK cities.
URBAN ECONOMIES • • •
North-South spatial imbalance in economic performance Asymmetrical treatment of cities (city deals, investment bias) Increasing skills gaps
URBAN FORM & INFRASTRUCTURE • •
High levels of required infrastructure investment Densification of city centres
URBAN GOVERNANCE LIVING IN CITIES • •
Increasing social disparities Changing work life balance
URBAN METABOLISM • •
Negative urban health impacts Resource price volatility
Future of Cities Project Overview
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Degrees of fiscal decentralisation Privatisation of public service delivery
SCIENCE OF CITIES • •
Lack of spatial literacy in policy Lack of strategic overview for UK and city systems
Challenges URBAN ECONOMIES example
Relationship between Output Growth and Employment Growth across British Cities Classified into North and South (Average Annual Growth Rates for 1981-2011)
Future of Cities Project Overview
City Seminars Meetings in 18 cities with representatives from: Local Governments and the Public Sector Universities Local Employers / Private Sector Local Charities / Third Sector
Future of Cities Project Overview
City Seminars Three prominent emerging themes: -
Social disparities Close proximity of richest and most deprived areas; how to alleviate social disparity
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Employment (and skills) Future employment trends would shape city; Skills disparities
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Transport Inter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity
The groups were encouraged to continue the process and commission their own local foresight projects to look at the future of their city.
Future of Cities Project Overview
Policy Challenges
The challenges emerging from the growing evidence base have major policy implications for the provision of services. Four questions guide the exploration of the possibly future directions of policy development: 1. 2. 3. 4.
What and who goes where? How do we connect? How do we pay for it? Who decides?
Income per capita at the ward level (Household income per week in GBP)
Future of Cities Project Overview
Next Steps
Future of Cities Project Overview
@ www
Foresight.FutureofCities@bis.gsi.gov.uk
futureofcities.blog.gov.uk @foresightgovuk #FutureCities