TCR Volume 2 Issue No 39 by The CenSEI Report

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Volume 2 - Number 39 • November 26-December 9, 2012

NATION

Strategic Analysis and Research by the

Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence … the Church is the Church of all peoples, and so she speaks in the various cultures of the different continents. She is the Church of Pentecost: amid the polyphony of the various voices, she raises a single harmonious song to the living God. ~ Pope Benedict XVI’s homily on the Consistory elevating six new Cardinals from Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas I cry easily, and I guess when you are before a great mystery that you know is beyond you, a calling, a grace, a mission, then, you know, you tremble, but at the same time you’re happy. ~ New Cardinal Jose Antonio Gokim Tagle explaining his tears upon receiving his red hat and gold ring from the Pope

3 Prostitution: The U.N. Bats for Legalization

The United Nations says legalizing prostitution would empower those making a living from sex and get them better health services, helping curb the spread of HIV • Tales of abuse: Prostitutes share their stories.

WORLD

13 Finishing Off the Planet’s Fish

The world’s oceans have been overfished for a while, while the world’s appetite for fish continues to increase. Can we bring fish populations back to sustainable levels? • Catch and eat: The top fish-producing and -consuming nations

BUSINESS

23 What Business Wants in the Philippines

With hopes for a reform-driving President to constitutional amendments to open up the economy, leading chambers of commerce present their wish lists for the government. What exactly will they get? • The Arangkada agenda: Foreign groups want the Philippines to halve unemployment, lure $7 billion in investment, export $100 billion a year, and more

HEALTH/LIFESTYLE

31 Is Social Media to Blame for Risky Behavior? Social networking online is being linked to unsafe sex, escalating teenage peer pressure, and other risky tendencies. What should parents, educators and governments do? • Besmirched, bullied and bewildered: The sad story of Amanda Todd can happen to your child

TECHNOLOGY

39 Tablets Are Taking Over the Computing World

First it was desktop computers pushing aside workstations tethered to mainframes. Then came desktop replacement laptops, followed by the netbook and ultrabook crazes. Now, the tablet is taking over as the premier computing device • The little tablet that could and just might: A cheap tablet from India could educate that country’s masses and transform the personal computing world in the process • Topping the desktop: New portables hoping to replace the old personal computer

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POINT & CLICK You can access online research via the Internet by clicking phrases in blue

TECHNOLOGY

Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management, enterprise development, intelligence, Internet and media. For subscriptions, research, and advisory services, please e-mail report@censeisolutions.com or call/fax +63-2-5311182. Links to online material on public websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date, but might be removed without warning. Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future.

Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something Blue The adage about what to have on one’s wedding day may well apply to The CenSEI Report this issue. Old, new, borrowed and blue are apt adjectives for the line-up of major articles and Briefing Notes dissecting the big developments of recent months. Not to mention red, yellow and green, too. The oldest profession, as prostitution has been labeled in various 19th and 20th Century tomes chronicled by Slate magazine, gets a new twist courtesy of the United Nations. The U.N. advocates legalizing the flesh trade to give its sellers better protection from both criminal abuse and health risks. The advocacy will probably go nowhere in conservative Asia, especially in the Catholic Philippines, but let not moral misgivings get in the way of a full assessment of how prostitution can be better addressed. The newest stuff in this issue is, of course, Technology’s line-up of upcoming high-tech gadgetry, which isn’t even available yet till well after the clock strikes twelve on January 1, 2013. Senior Editor Bill Huang, whose earlier incarnations include computer equipment merchant, trolled the infotech sites, news, blogs and banter to extract the solid stuff from the scuttlebutt, and lay out before devicedevouring readers what the IT world has in store next year. Borrowed time is the theme of several articles, from World’s report on the planet’s dwindling fish to Briefing Notes on drug-resistant diseases and poor sanitation in Health/Lifestyle. As public health and environment experts have warned, modern man’s ways like overfishing, antibiotic abuse, and rapid population growth have flicked the switches on ticking medical and ecological time bombs which must be defused before we run out of the time lent by longsuffering but not limitless nature. Bluefin tuna, blue-ocean navy, bluetooth devices, Blue Eagle English — the color of sky, sea and seafood bob up and down like buoys in the water across the Report this fortnight. The big blue story, however, is Health/Lifestyle’s worried look at how blue-banded Facebook is connecting people feeling the blues, but also enabling if not encouragin risky behavior, from unsafe sex and online bullying to teen hazards and peer pressures. Clearly, there needs to be some red and yellow lights to keep the daredevil dangers down. Playing up the entire wedding adage is the Business wish list of major chambers of commerce in the Philippines. From old sectors like farming and mining to new ones like business process outsourcing, with giant institutions of borrowing and blue-chip companies in between, the article highlights key recommendations for the productive marriage of good governance and private enterprise. Let the state says “I do.”

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Rescuing Women from the Flesh Trade

Should the Philippines legalize prostitution or just decriminalize it? By Pia Rufino

STRATEGY POINTS The United Nations says legalizing prostitution will empower sex workers, and increase their access to help in treating or preventing sexually transmitted diseases and HIV Local women’s rights organizations and lawmakers oppose the U.N.’s recommendation, saying that the move will dehumanize women and increase violence against women Current laws only penalize prostitutes, not the people who force women into prostitution and profit from it

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he United Nations recommends decriminalizing prostitution in order to help curb the spread of sexually transmitted diseases, especially the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). According to the October report, “Sex Work and the Law in Asia and the Pacific” from the United Nations Development Programme’s Asia-Pacific Regional Centre, positive public health and human rights outcomes have been achieved in jurisdictions that have decriminalized sex work. The report’s recommendation: “States should move away from criminalizing sex work or activities associated with it. Decriminalization of sex work should include removing criminal penalties for purchase and sale of sex, management of sex workers and brothels, and other activities related to sex work.”

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Examining laws that affect human rights of sex workers and impact on effectiveness of HIV responses of 48 countries in the region, the report finds that “criminalization increases vulnerability to HIV by fuelling stigma and discrimination, limits access to sexual health services and condoms.”

“Our present laws seek to penalize only the women engaged in prostitution. Prostituted women are treated as criminals rather than victims of poverty and gender inequality.”

‘Criminalization legitimizes violence and discrimination.’ Moreover, it says

-Gabriela Women’s Party Representative Luz Ilagan

that “criminalization legitimizes violence and discrimination against sex workers (particularly from law enforcement authorities and health care providers). Criminalization makes sex workers reluctant to report abuses and makes authorities reluctant to offer protection or support to sex workers.” Decriminalization would enable sex workers to organize within their communities and register their organizations, obtain identification documents so that they can fully access services and entitlements, engage in advocacy and respond to the health and safety needs of their peers. “The legal recognition of sex work as an occupation also enables sex workers to claim benefits, to form unions and to access work-related banking, insurance, transport and pension schemes.” The report notes that except for New Zealand and the state of New South Wales in Australia, all countries in Asia and the Pacific criminalize sex work or certain activities related to sex work.

No to the U.N. proposal. The U.N.’s

recommendation is being opposed by women’s rights organizations, lawmakers, and Church representatives. The Philippine Commission on Women (PCW), in an Oct. 31 statement, reiterates that it is against

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the legalization of prostitution, which it calls “an exploitative system that commodifies and dehumanizes women, men and children who are being victimized within the system.” The PCW is the government’s primary policy-making and coordinating body for concerns related to women empowerment and gender equality. Gabriela Women’s Party Representative Luz Ilagan says legalization of prostitution will not in any way ensure the protection of Filipino women, children and men forced to engage in the flesh trade. Instead, it would only “give pimps, owners of prostitution dens and their customers the leverage to further exploit women as well as children and minors,” she said in an Oct. 27 report in Bulatlat. Instead of legalizing prostitution, she says Congress should enact legislation to decriminalize it by introducing amendments to the Revised Penal Code. “Our present laws seek to penalize only the women engaged in prostitution. Prostituted women are treated as criminals rather than victims of poverty and gender inequality. Our laws do not penalize pimps, bar owners and operators or those who pay to use and abuse these women. Prostitution is a highly organized exploitative system,” she elaborates.

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Under Republic Act 10158, “prostitutes” are defined as “women who for money or profit, habitually indulge in sexual intercourse or lascivious conduct.” If found guilty of any of the offenses covered in the article, offenders “shall be punished by arresto menor or a fine not exceeding 200 pesos, and in case of recidivism, by arresto mayor in its medium period to prision correctional in its minimum period or a fine ranging from 200 to 2,000 pesos, or both, in the discretion of the court.” According to Ilagan, who works with prostituted women in Davao City through a non-profit organization Talikala, education to enhance women’s awareness, along with access to health services, are needed to ensure protection from sexually transmitted diseases and HIV.

‘Morally unacceptable.’ For his part, Manila

Auxiliary Bishop Broderick Pabillo calls the UN’s suggestion “morally unacceptable,” explaining that legalizing prostitution does not improve the situation, but instead makes it worse, according to an Oct. 24 report posted on the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) website. The bishop warns that if the sex trade becomes legal, it will just open a gate to predators to abuse more women. “Give women real rights and decent jobs and not prostitution,” suggests Bishop Pabillo, who is chairman of the CBCP’s National Secretariat for Social Action – Justice and Peace. Instead of legalizing sex trade, he urges the government to focus on behavioral change, adding that HIV transmission can remain high if the problem of risky sexual behavior is not tackled. Meanwhile, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile and Senator Aquilino Pimentel III added their voices to the growing disapproval against the U.N’s

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suggestion to decriminalize prostitution, saying that what works in other countries might not work in the Philippines, according to an Oct. 23 report on GMA News Online. For Pimentel, decriminalizing prostitution in the country will not get the same results as in other countries, saying that in more developed countries women engage in prostitution because it’s their own choice. “I don’t think the Filipino electorate, as well as the policy-makers, are ready for such a radical proposal to legalize prostitution.” he continued.

Prostituted women – poor, uneducated, sexually abused. According to an anti-

prostitution policy brief by the PCW, women and children engaged in prostitution are poor, uneducated, and sometimes sexually abused. “They have been trafficked -- recruited, usually through deception, force or intimidation, and forced and kept into prostitution through threats or actual acts of violence, until such time when the victims start believing that there is no other life for them outside of prostitution,” the policy brief says. Other factors cited by the NGO are involved in anti-prostitution work include: • Coming from dysfunctional homes • Deception by recruiters • Pornography • Tourism that capitalizes on Filipino women • General apathy of the society and the Church regarding this reality. In a survey of those engaged in prostitution along Quezon Avenue in Quezon City, the main reasons given by the respondents for being involved were: poverty, under-employment or lack of employment opportunities, physical or sexual abuse, drug dependence and other vices, lack

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Rescuing women from the flesh trade

of education and peer influence, as cited in a paper posted on the site of the CBCP’s National Secretariat for Social Action-Justice and Peace (NASSA). Based on a 1998 International Labor Organization study, establishments known to be involved in the sex sector include: special tourist agencies, escort services, hotel room service, saunas and health clinics, casas or brothels, bars, beer gardens, cocktail lounges, cabarets and special clubs. According to the aforementioned U.N. report, in countries where sex work is criminalized but where government recognizes that sex is sold in certain establishments -- including Guam, the Philippines and Thailand -- the law requires businesses known to be involved in the sex sector such as entertainment venues to be registered or licensed and to comply with conditions such as the requirement to have

employees test regularly for Sexually transmitted infections (STI). “The major flaw of all of these approaches is that the majority of sex workers operate outside of the licensing or registration system. For this reason, these approaches have not proven effective in preventing HIV epidemics among sex workers.”

Government support reaches only a few.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) provides temporary shelter and counseling to women in prostitution, but this program helps only a small number of victims of illicit recruitment. According to an article, “Women’s rights situation in the Philippines,” uploaded to a site managed by the Center for Asia-Pacific Women in Politics: “DSWD officials noted that the number rescued failed to reflect the true extent of the prostitution problem

Number of Women in Especially Difficult Circumstances Served By DSWD, 1998-2007 Case Category

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Total

7,474

7,763

7,125

6,074

5,608

5,703

5,559

5,440

5,378

5,359

Sexually Abused

1,076

1,204

900

707

518

495

373

348

333

319

Physically Abused / Maltreated / Battered

4,083

3,440

3,184

2,318

1,405

1,926

1,557

1,582

1,438

1,475

Ilegal Recruitment

198

119

151

530

102

162

102

Involuntary Prostitution

231

239

171

147

164

141

Armed Conflict / Trafficking

604

839

117

174

In Detention Others1

1,230

2,648

2,578

1,474

1,702

Uncategorized2

1,665

1,229 2,934

3,226

1,887

954 3,363

2,303

1Others includes HIV patients/potentials, strandees, abandoned, emotionally distressed, unwed mothers, sexually exploited, voluntary committed/surrendered and neglected victims of disaster

2These are the estimated number of WEDC clients provided with crisis intervention services whose cases are not categorized

Table from the report “Statistics on Violence Against Women and Children: A Morally Rejuvenating Philippine Society?”, National Statistical Coordination Board, 2008

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since it reflected only those who obtained temporary shelter and counseling through the DSWD and local governments.“ Statistics on Violence Against Women and Children from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the highest number of involuntary prostitution cases it served is 239 which was in 1999. In 2007, it only served 32 cases. Meanwhile, a March 2012 NSCB Fact Sheet, shows that in 2011, 253 cases were served by the DSWD compared to 102 in 2010.

Shift criminal liability. PCW and Gabriela, along with women rights groups in the Philippines, have been lobbying for the passage of a law that shifts criminal liability to those who exploit women into prostitution and those who profit from such transactions, e.g., pimps and establishments involved in prostitution. Prostitution is a massive problem in the Philippines, as described in the explanatory notes of Senate Bill 2341 (The Anti-Prostitution Act of 2010) introduced by Senator Pia Cayetano, chairperson of the Senate committees on health and demography and on youth, women, and family relations. In 2000, the number of persons exploited in prostitution in the Philippines was estimated to be between 300,000 and 500,000, with a great portion said to be composed of women. Since then, the estimated numbers of women exploited in prostitution have increased, to 600,000 in 2004 and 800,000 in 2005. The bill seeks to address the problems of prostitution by shifting accountability from the prostitutes to the exploiters of prostitutes. According to a 2004 two-page brief, “The Link Between Prostitution and Sex Trafficking” from the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Public Affairs,

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two years after Sweden started prosecuting pimps and brothel owners, the country saw a 50% decrease in women prostitutes and a 75% decrease in men buying sex. Trafficking for sexual exploitation declined as well. Moreover, the document reports that “where prostitution has been legalized or tolerated, there is an increase in the demand for sex slaves and the number of victimized foreign women—many likely victims of human trafficking.“ It concludes by saying that “Prostitution is not the oldest profession, but the oldest form of oppression.”

After legalization, a mixed bag of results.

According to the aforementioned October U.N report, “Sex Work and the Law in Asia and the Pacific,” New Zealand and New South Wales’s approach of defining sex work as legitimate labor empowers sex workers, increases their access to sexual health services, and is associated with very high condom use rates. Very low STI prevalence has been maintained among women in prostitution in the two jurisdictions, and HIV transmission within the context of sex work is recognized to be extremely low or nonexistent. A New Zealand government study shows encouraging results when the country decriminalized sex trade in 2003, based on a 2008 article in the Economist. Findings from the study show that over 60% of prostitutes felt more empowered in refusing clients. The report also finds that only about 1% of women in the business were under the legal age of 18, and only 4% said they had been pressured into working by someone else. However, in a 2008 report on the impact of New Zealand’s decriminalization approach, Melissa Farley of Prostitution Research & Education in San Francisco says “decriminalization can’t stop

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Survivors tell their tales In the following video on prostitution in the Philippines, self-described “survivors of prostitution” Vivienne and Lenita describe offering sex to customers on the streets of Cubao, Quezon City, each working six hours a night and servicing at least three customers. Vivienne recalls being arrested 40 to 50 times and being in jail for a total of two years out of the seven years she has been a prostitute, while Lenita says policemen often ask her for free sex or money in exchange for her freedom. An Oct. 30 story uploaded to the Rappler news site features Adelyn, who has been abused countless times by her customers when she was still trapped in prostitution. One time, she recalls, a police officer shoved a gun in her genitals, started beating her and take all her money. Another customer immersed her in a bath tub filled with warm water while naked when she refused to do anal sex.

“He insulted me, saying I’m no longer a virgin. Of course, I already had children. My head was already bleeding. He began striking me with his fist and foot. I thought I was going to die,” she recounted. In a January 2011 Manila Bulletin feature, Jean Enriquez, executive director of the international NGO Coalition Against Trafficking in Women - Asia Pacific, told a story of a survivor of prostitution she will always remember. While the victim was being abused by her father, uncle and cousin -- since she was 10 years old -she was told by her relatives that they loved her, which led her to think that what they were doing to her was not abuse. According to Enriquez, the girl said she agreed to become a prostitute since her father was using her every day, and in prostitution, she would at least be given P500.00 for it.

Video report, “Prostitution in the Philippines: Finding a Way Out,” by Hera Sanchez, uploaded on March 18, 2011, by Video Journalism (VJ) Movement, an online media organization based in The

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the violence, abuse, and stigma that are builtin to prostitution.” She notes that prostitution has increased dramatically in New Zealand since decriminalization, with a 200-400% increase in street prostitution in Auckland.

director of the international Coalition Against Trafficking in Women, offers arguments against legalization of prostitution in her 2003 article, “Ten Reasons for Not Legalizing Prostitution And a Legal Response to the Demand for Prostitution.”

According to a study titled “Prostitution in NSW: The impact of Deregulation,” uploaded on the Australian government Institute of criminology website, decriminalization along with anticorruption measures in the police force, AIDS education, improved funding for STD (sexually transmitted disease) services, establishment of outreach Health Services and funding for prostitutes’ organizations seem to have brought positive impact, in terms of reduction in police corruption and prevalence of STDs amongst prostitutes, an increase in the use of condoms and other safer sex practices, among others.

For one, Raymond says legalization or decriminalization of prostitution and the sex industry promotes sex trafficking. In the year since lifting the ban on brothels in the Netherlands, victim-support organizations in the European country reported an increase in the number of trafficking victims, she elaborates.

However, every day, prostitutes still experience “violence, drug abuse, exploitation, poor health, stress and a multitude of other health and social problems,” the study adds.

Arguments against legalization. Janice G. Raymond, a professor emerita of women’s studies at the University of Massachusetts and a former

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Legalization does not protect the women in prostitution, adds Raymond. She cites studies which interviewed commercial sexual exploitation and found that “women consistently indicated that prostitution establishments did little to protect them, regardless of whether the establishments were legal or illegal.” According to a study that interviewed victims of trafficking in five countries, 80% percent of respondents suffered physical violence from pimps and buyers, and endured similar and multiple health effects. According to a 2007 review of “International Approaches to Decriminalising or Legalising

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News & Strategy Alerts Nation

Big flaws in the Robredo crash — and its investigation

Prostitution,” by Elaine Mossman of Crime and Justice Research Centre of Victoria University of Wellington, the positive impact of legalizing prostitution would be:

Corruption in regulating agencies and air charter companies contributed to the plane crash of Sec. Jesse Robredo

• Eliminating criminal activity associated with prostitution (organized crime, state corruption, child prostitution and people trafficking) • Controlling the spread of STIs and HIV /AIDS • Reducing the public nuisance associated with prostitution (e.g. reduced ‘litter’ from used condoms or needles, and less traffic congestion from kerb crawling by controlling where street prostitution can occur).

An independent investigating body should be formed to conduct the investigation and not CAAP because it is also a culprit in the accident The investigation should be thorough and very transparent to avoid cover-up

Meanwhile, the study says with decriminalization (where there are no state controls against prostitution), positive outcomes would include: • Alleviating the social exclusion that sex workers typically face • Safeguarding the human rights of sex workers • Removing ‘double standards’ whereby a sex worker can be convicted, while a client cannot • Improving health, safety and working conditions for sex workers • Giving sex workers the same rights and responsibilities as others.

The plane crash that killed Local Government Secretary Jesse Robredo and two pilots on August 18, 2012, was due to systemic failure at the air service company and the aviation authority. So said President Benigno Aquino III in his Palace Nov. 13 press conference on the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) official report blaming pilot error and engine failure for the crash. However, the investigation also opened a can of worms revealing corruption and incompetence in CAAP and air charter companies — including an alleged cover-up in the Robredo crash probe. Aquino cited findings of “collusion between Aviatour and a CAAP inspector in deliberately violating regulatory requirements.” But it could be worse: a CAAP special investigator accused his bosses of excluding vital information from the Robredo crash report. It was discovered that the Piper Seneca’s right engine was replaced in November 2011. Aviatour Air, the aircraft owner, used surplus engines from the U.S. bought very cheap. After motor replacement, Avaitour maintenance chief Nelson Napata filed a propeller overhaul report to CAAP. On January 7, 2012, a one-hour test flight was supposedly conducted, but there is no record of it. The test flight plan in Mactan Airport is also missing. Then it may well be that the Piper Seneca never left the ground but got an airworthiness stamp from its CAAP inspector Fernando Abalos.

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Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation Bureau head Capt. Amado Soliman said “an Aviatour pilot confessed to falsifying a document that led to the approval of the company’s Airworthiness Certificate.” Captain Federico A. Omolon III, Aviatours Flight Instructor and supposed pilot of the test flight, testified that Captain Jessup Bahinting, owner of Aviatour’s and pilot of the fatal Seneca flight, asked him to sign the Flight Test Report even though he did not test-fly the plane. From the investigation, there seemed to be “collusion between Aviatours and several CAAP inspectors.” Capt. Bahinting also did not have a license for “one engine inoperative emergencies,” the very problem encountered before the crash. Moreover, many air charter companies use substandard fuel. Graft and corruption in CAAP leads to the deterioration of airline safety standards and practices, compounded by anomalous practices of charter firms. And worse: if CAAP investigates crashes caused by its failings, there is temptation to cover up. And that is exactly what CAAP Special Investigator Cesar Lucero alleged in a letter to President Aquino and his statements to media. Lucero contended that the 14-page official report excuded accounts of Coast Guard divers who retrieved the bodies from the sunken plane. The divers allegedly found Bahinting, the supposed pilot, strapped to the right seat, indicating that he was not pilot-in-command during the crash. Lucero told media that a 22-year-old Nepalese, Kshitiz Chan, who wanted to learn flying to serve his country’s army, was in control. Lucero also charged that the CAAP report did not list aircraft parts found on the seabed off Masbate. Examining the parts is a must to determine the cause of engine failure, whether mechanical due to defective or low standard material — or sabotage. His media statements prompted CAAP to suspend Lucero for 90 days for allegedly violating a July 30 memo on press statements. The latter also told the President that he had filed corruption charges with the Ombudsman against past and present CAAP officials.

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Since CAAP failings may have contributed to crashes, the government must empower independent bodies to probe incidents. In the U.S., accidents are investigated by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), “an independent federal agency charged by Congress with investigating every civil aviation accident in the U.S. and significant accidents in other modes of transportation-railroad, highway, marine and pipeline.” And media should vigilantly monitor all probes to avoid any cover-up. The CAAP report’s collusion findings and the cover-up charges may further delay the long-desired restoration of Category 1 rating for Philippine aviation, so that restrictions on flights from Manila would be eased. In February this year, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), “rated the Philippines as FAILED in its aviation compliance directive, and recommended that the country should remain further under heightened surveillance (CAT 2).” As the Philippine Daily Inquirer reports, the FAA cited “ ‘serious safety concern’ status with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which reflects the government’s failure to comply with minimum international aviation safety standards.” Europe, Japan and South Korea also impose bans of varying degrees against Philippine carriers. Clearly, getting the Robredo probe right and instituting sweeping CAAP reforms are a must not just for truth and justice for the beloved late secretary, but also for Philippine travel and transport.

Next AFP chief? Don’t ask the generals

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The Board of Generals had long shortlisted candidates for Armed Forces Chief — but not anymore under President Benigno Aquino III.

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Consulting the Board helps ensure broad support for the top general — crucial in military operations, deep reforms, and anti-coup efforts It’s not just Supreme Court and Court of Appeals justices “dismayed” with presidential appointments of their top officials, as reported by The Manila Times. Now, even top brass of the Armed Forces of the Philippines may be disappoinated with the way President Benigno Aquino III is choosing the next AFP Chief of Staff. Incumbent Gen. Jessie D. Dellosa announced two contenders to replace him when he retires on January 20, after nearly 38 years of active service: Army commander Lt. Gen. Emmanuel Bautista and Air Force chief Lt. Gen. Lauro Catalino dela Cruz. Dellosa belongs to Philippine Military Academy Class 1979, dela Cruz to Class 1980, and Bautista to Class 1981. Nearly all armed forces chiefs are PMA alumni. But another tradition in selecting the AFP Chief was not followed. Dellosa said: “The Board of Generals will not anymore give recommendations for his replacement. The Secretary of National Defense, the President and myself — we’ll just be the ones who will talk about this.” According to former defense secretary Norberto Gonzales, it had been a tradition for the Board of Generals (BOG) to give a shortlist of nominees for the incoming Chief of Staff to the Defense Secretary, who in turn submits them to the President. But during the term of President Aquino, Gonzales says, this process has not been followed. In his Manila Times column, former AFP Chief Alexander Yano explains the process: “The AFP Board of Generals (BOG) is headed by the AFP Chief of Staff as Chairman with members composed of the AFP Vice Chief of Staff, The Deputy Chief of Staff, and Chiefs of the three AFP Major Services. … The Board through the Chief of Staff as Chairman recommends the best qualified officers to the Secretary of National Defense

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who in turn submits it to the President. Among the key and strategic positions in which the BOG exercises selection and recommendatory functions are: Commanders of the Major Services, Unified Commands, Division Commands, Brigade Commands, and GHQ [General Headquarteers] Staff.” The generals always respect the President’s choice. But skipping a time-honored tradition wherein the BOG is consulted on their choice for the incoming chief of staff may cause some dismay in the ranks. Moreover, broad consultation through the Board of Generals helps ensure that top military commanders enjoy solid support across the AFP — no doubt indispensable in successfully prosecuting military operations, not to mention reform programs and anti-coup efforts. Another issue is the AFP Chief’s term. According to retired general Ramon Farolan, “One of the great tragedies of the AFP organization today is the lack of tenure of our military leaders. They remain hostage to political realities. For more than a decade now, the ‘revolving door’ that is the hallmark of the office of the AFP chief of staff has seriously affected the ability of any wellmeaning AFP chief to put in place and nourish badly-needed programs for the benefit of the men and women in uniform. … President Benigno Aquino III’s predecessor, Gloria MacapagalArroyo, appointed 11 AFP chiefs, most of them having served for less than a year, during her nineyear rule.” A proposed measure stipulates a three-year fixed term for the AFP Chief of Staff. This will solve the “revolving door” problem. If and when the bill lands on his desk, President Aquino would do well to sign it into law, even though it limits his prerogative to appoint the AFP Chief to once every three years.

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The World’s Fish Stocks Are Dwindling Man’s appetite for fish and fish products is exceeding the oceans’ capacity for sustainable production By Jerome Balinton

STRATEGY POINTS While overall fish production continues to increase, the share of marine-capture fisheries in the total has been declining, along with a drop in absolute terms According to the United Nations, the maximum potential of marine-capture fisheries has probably been reached, and 80% of the world fish stocks are fully exploited or exploited Aside from the effects of overfishing, the world’s marine fish stocks are also in danger from climate change warming the oceans and bringing about reductions in size along with number

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The world’s fish stocks are dwindling

the most vulnerable species caught in ICCAT fisheries. According to the fact sheet, porbeagle sharks have commercial value for their large fins and meat, and are taken both in directed fisheries and as bycatch.

The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas, an inter-government fisheries management organization responsible for the conservation of 30 tuna and tuna-like species in the Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas, concluded its week-long special meeting on Nov. 19 in Agadir, Morocco.

Generally, world marine fisheries are in crisis, studies show. Activities detrimental to fish stocks across the globe, if left unrestricted, could take fish off our tables, which would seriously affect both developed and developing nations. A National Geographic article on overfishing cites a 2006 study of catch data published in Science that warns of a collapse of the world’s fisheries by 2048 if fishing rates continue unabated.

he latest developments in the world’s efforts to protect marine species might not have made big headlines around the world, but maybe they should have, if only to call attention to a serious and ongoing problem.

ICCAT, composed of 48 member governments (including the Philippines, which became a member in 2004), solidified its commitment to making decisions based on sound scientific evidence. Heeding the advice of its scientists, it maintained the total catch limits for endangered Atlantic bluefin tuna at 13,500 tons for 2013, to ensure one of the world’s most valuable fish species could continue its recovery, the Pew Environment Group said in a Nov. 19 press release. According to ICCAT’s “October 2012 Report of the Standing Committee on Research and Statistics,” catch limits have been in place for the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna since 1998. The table at the right shows the reduction in catch limit since 2003. But tuna and tuna-like species – collectively the most valuable fish resources – are not the only fish species in the world at the brink of severe depletion, if not outright extinction. According to a fact sheet published on the Pew Environment Group site from the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, ICCAT failed to reach consensus on protection measures for porbeagle sharks, one of

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Marine fish stocks are dwindling. In their global overview of marine fishery resources, presented in the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s

ICCAT CATCH LIMITS FOR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MEDITERRANEAN BLUEFIN TUNA Year

Total Allowance Catch (tons)

2003

32000

2004

32000

2005

32000

2006

32000

2007

29500

2008

28500

2009

22000

2010

19950

2011

18500

2012

13500

2013 - Future

13500

Table from TCR compilation of figures provided in “October 2012 Report of the Standing Committee on Research and Statistics,” International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas, as presented Oct. 1-5, 2012, in Madrid, Spain

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2011 technical paper, “Review of the State of World Marine Fishery Resources,” authors Yimin Ye and Kevern Cochrane say that in the last two decades, the contribution of marine-capture fisheries to the growing total fish population has shrunk, reflecting both relative and actual declines from historical peaks. According to Ye and Cochrane, the world’s fisheries and aquaculture sectors have undergone dramatic changes over the last 60 years, and there have been large increases in total production. World fish production was only 19.3 million tons in 1950, but it increased dramatically to 163 million tons in 2009. Marine-capture fisheries have always been the largest contributor to world fish production. In 1950, marine captures were 16.7 million tons and accounted for 86% of total world fish production. In the last two decades, marine and inland aquaculture has expanded rapidly, and the relative contribution of marine-capture fisheries to the growing total world fish production has shrunk. Nevertheless, marinecapture fisheries still contributed 49% of the world’s fish production in 2009, ahead of mariculture (21%), freshwater aquaculture (23%), and inland-capture fisheries (6%).

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Marine fisheries’ production increased from 16.7 million tons in 1950 to a peak of 87.7 million tons in 1996, after which it declined and stabilized at around 80 million tons. In 2009, recorded production from marine-capture fisheries stood at 79.5 million tons (see following chart). According to a United Nations May 2010 fact sheet on world fisheries, “the maximum wild-capture fisheries potential has probably been reached,” and “80 per cent of the world’s fish stocks … are reported as fully exploited or overexploited and, thus, requiring effective and precautionary management.”

Evidence of overfishing accumulating steadily. The evidence of overfishing is accumulating steadily as fish-catching capacity in many countries continues to increase, the World Bank said in a 2004 paper, “Saving Fish and Fishers: Toward Sustainable and Equitable Governance of the Global Fishing Sector.”

According to the paper from the bank’s Agriculture and Rural Development, while global fish production from marine-capture fisheries during the 1950s and 1960s grew at a rate of 6% annually, catches of the most sought-after marine fish species have actually been in decline since 1988.

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WORLD PRODUCTION FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS OF FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE, 1950-2009 180 160

miliion tonnes

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1955

1960

Marine capture

1965

1970

1975

Marine aquaculture

1980

1985

1990

1995

Inland aquaculture

2000

2005 2009

Inland capture

Chart from “Review of the State of World Marine Fishery Resources (2011),” Food and Agriculture Organization Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 569

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“The decreasing number of fish caught in global fisheries, overcapacity of fishing fleets, and rising demand for fish heighten the negative impacts of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and make it increasingly widespread and profitable for those involved...” - Flothman et al Moreover, the current level of capture-fisheries production has been achieved only by fishing harder and by targeting smaller and less valuable species, as the large fish species have disappeared and fishers continue to “fish down the food chain.” Overfishing of the large predator fish species, e.g., tuna, shark, and cod, can cause significant increases of species somewhat lower in the food chain, such as smaller pelagic (open ocean) fish, such as herrings, sardines, and anchovies. The World Bank said in cases where many high-level fish species have been removed, there can be serious repercussions on the lower end of the food chain, leading to overgrowth of crustaceans, squid, or pest species such as jellyfish. The decreasing number of fish caught in global fisheries, overcapacity of fishing fleets, and rising demand for fish heighten the negative impacts of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and make it increasingly widespread and profitable for those involved, according to Stefan Flothmann et al, in a policy brief on illegal fishing uploaded to the Pew Charitable Trusts site (originally published in the June 4, 2010 issue of Science).

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Flothmann et al wrote that IUU fishing undermines sustainable fisheries management, particularly on the high seas (international waters beyond the jurisdiction of coastal states) and in coastal waters of developing countries, and has substantial social and economic ramifications.

State of exploitation. According to Ye and

Cochrane, of the 584 “stocks” (FAO used 600 in 2005) or species groups assessed (assessment data available to FAO in 2009 from the 17 FAO Statistical Areas plus the “Tuna” category), 395 stocks of which were assessed in 2009 represents 70% of global catch. The remaining 189 stocks had either insufficient information for status assessment or catches with no proper identification. Of the fish stocks assessed, 57.4% were estimated to be fully exploited in 2009. These stocks produced catches that were already at or very close to their maximum sustainable production. They have no room for further expansion in catch, and even some risk of decline if not properly managed. Among the remaining stocks, 29.9% were overexploited, and 12.7 % non-fully exploited in 2009. The overexploited stocks produced lower yields than their biological and ecological potential. (Refer to this link for the full list of global fish stocks ranked as either “overexploited,” “depleted,” or “recovering,” by FAO statistical region.)

Increasing degradation of ecosystems and habitats. The afore-mentioned World Bank paper

attributed the depletion of wild fish stocks to increasing degradation of coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems and habitats, as growing coastal populations exert increasing pressures on natural resources.

The population living within 100 kilometers of the coast has grown to 2.2 billion people, 39% of the global

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Who catches and who consumes The following chart from National Geographic and the Sea Around Us project of the University of British Columbia’s Fisheries Centre provides a visual representation of the world’s top 20 fish producers alongside the world’s top fish consumers.

TOP FISH PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS 2001-2005

Collectively, the world’s top 20 fish producers produced 62.6 million metric tons of fish a year from 2001 to 2005, while the world’s top 20 fish consumers consumed 59.2 million metric tons during the same period. Of the 15 countries and territories that are among the top 20 producers and consumers, nine consume more fish than they produce, while six produce more fish than they consume. There are five top fish producers (Peru, Denmark, Iceland, Myanmar, and Canada) who are not among the top consumers, and five top fish consumers (Nigeria, Spain, U.K., France, and Italy) are not among the top producers. (The Philippines, for its part, was the world’s 11th-largest producer of fish over that period, with 2.0 million metric tons average production, and the world’s 9th-largest consumer, with 2.1 million metric tons average consumption.)

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Chart from National Geographic and Sea Around Us Project, University of British Columbia Fisheries Center

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population), leading to pollution and degradation of major marine ecosystems. Pollution effects and declining water levels have been even more significant in inland water bodies. But for Manuel Barange and R. Ian Perry, coauthors of “Physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture (2009),” which was published in FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 530, the effect of climate change cannot be easily distinguished from direct anthropogenic effects (resulting from the influence of human beings on nature) already impacting the fishery resources.

High demand. According to the 2004 World

Bank paper, growing populations, increasing incomes, urbanization, and health concerns about other sources of animal products will continue to fuel a strong increase in domestic demand for fish in the developing world, outstripping the supply from capture fisheries, and thus putting more pressure on the already overfished marine and inland resources.

The effects of climate change on fish migration and size. According to Tarub Bahri

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and Cochrane, in the chapter they wrote for FAO’s 2011 fisheries stocks assessment, the changes in climate that are being observed around the world are having and will continue to have impact on fisheries, and they are likely to increase with the extent and level of climate change. Citing Barange and Perry, Bahri and Cochrane said global warming is modifying the distribution of marine species, with warm-water species being displaced towards the poles and experiencing changes in the size and productivity of their habitats. As reported in The Guardian Sept. 30, a new study of the world’s oceans predicts that global warming is likely to shrink the size of fish by as much as a quarter in coming decades. According to the report, researchers led by Prof. William Cheung of the University of British Columbia examined the effect of rising ocean temperatures on the growth and distribution of more than 600 species of fish around the world, and predicted that the fish could shrink in size by 14-24% by 2050, with the biggest effects in tropical regions. The report also explains that because warm water holds less oxygen, the growth of fish in warm water is limited, and that small-bodied fish in the tropics

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will migrate to temperate or polar regions as the ocean warms, thus reducing the average fish size. Cheung was also quoted as warning, “We are already seeing the effects,” citing a 2011 study that showed the reduction in the size of haddock in the North Sea correlating closely with increasing temperature. Cheung’s team projected temperature rises using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, based on a high-emissions scenario that matches the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, The Guardian said.

Buy sustainable seafood. Short of giving up fish

altogether, what can consumers do about the situation? The World Wildlife Fund, in a page on unsustainable fishing, suggests consumers buy sustainable seafood, referring to seafood that has been certified by the Marine Stewardship Council. In the following video uploaded to YouTube by The faircompanies Community, Brian Halwell of the Worldwatch Institute advises that while the oceans are overfished, the situation isn’t irreversible, and that one basic solution -- apart from eating less seafood in the short run -- is in eating more fish that are lower in the food chain (clams, mollusks, oysters, sardines), rather than big fish (tuna, swordfish, sharks).

News & Strategy Alerts World Middle East fiscal reforms may affect overseas labor The International Monetary Fund says Middle East economies must introduce fiscal restraint and deeper reform, both rich oil exporters and struggling importers Reduced public spending and more jobs for the youth may diminish demand for overseas labor The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urges economies across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to introduce fiscal restraint and deeper reforms, according to a . Citing the IMF’s semi-annual regional economic outlook, the report said growth in MENA is projected at 5.1% this year, up from 3.3% in 2011. Next year, however, growth is expected to slow to 3.6% as oil production stagnates. The IMF also called on economies in the region to make policy changes to strengthen their economies and deliver more equitable development for their people. The Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook released this month outlines what MENA and Central Asian economies need to do to safeguard their futures. Oil exporters should increase resilience and create private-sector jobs, while oil importers must restore macroeconomic stability and accelerate growth. Structural reforms are also needed for inclusive growth. Creating jobs for the young and rapidly growing population, as well as putting social safety nets in place, are also crucial.

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In the Middle East and North Africa, progress is still dependent on the political climate, particularly for countries in transition to democracy, where local unrest could also have regional spillovers, hampering foreign direct investment (FDI). In the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook update released in April: “In the ‘Arab Spring’ countries, political transition, pressing social demands, and an adverse external environment have combined to increase the near-term risks to macroeconomic stability.” A World Economic Forum-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) report suggests enhancing overall competitiveness as part of the reform agenda to address challenges and exploit opportunities in the MENA region. One direction to take is the creation of a vibrant, competitive, and entrepreneurial private sector. Moreover, the report notes that the region still suffers from skills mismatch, underperforming tertiary education systems, and rigid labor markets. As such, MENA economies must invest in closing the skills gap through education, private sector involvement, and the promotion of structured regional cooperation in the field of higher education and research. Since outlook for oil exporters is positive, they can generate activity in their economies and help neighbors. However, they should take advantage of their strong position now to guard against declining oil prices in future. They could ease government expenditures, which could affect the construction sector and public sector hiring — which would impact on labor-exporting countries like the Philippines. On the other hand, Masood Ahmed of IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department says oil-importing countries, particularly those undergoing political and social transition, will focus more on domestic concerns, such as an impatient population waiting for a transition dividend, and growing financial and economic constraints due to the global economic slowdown. These countries

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will be prioritizing macroeconomic stability and job creation for their young population, which may also affect prospects for migrant workers.

Masood Ahmed, director of IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department, highlights the need for reform in rich and poor nations alike IMF

As the U.S. pivots, China builds up its navy With the increased U.S. military deployment in the Philippines, China is beefing up missile and naval forces in the South China Sea. Beijing is not likely to go to war over tiny islands. But hosting U.S. ships able to nuke China and cut its oil lifeline makes the Philippines a strategic threat and target. In response to American President Barack Obama’s “pivot” toward Asia, with 60% of U.S. naval forces to be deployed in the region, outgoing Chinese President Hu Jintao told 2,200 delegates at the ruling Communist Party of China Congress: “We should enhance our capacity for exploiting marine resources, resolutely safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power.” Under the U.S. Defense Department strategic guidance

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published in January this year, the United States is shifting priority and power to Asia, which will become the world’s most important economic region. “U.S. economic and security interests are inextricably linked to developments in the arc extending from the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and South Asia, creating a mix of evolving challenges and opportunities,” the Pentagon paper explained. “Accordingly, while the U.S. military will continue to contribute to security globally, we will of necessity rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific region.” That rebalancing has accelerated amid tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Dwarfed and intimidated by Chinese marine security forces, the Philippines has allowed a trebling of U.S. forces rotating through the archipelago under the allies’ Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Ships and submarines of the Seventh Fleet, many of them carrying nuclearcapable missiles able to reach China from the Philippines, regularly dock in Subic and prowl waters in and around the country. Apparently to counter the American buildup, China has reportedly deployed a ballistic missile brigade able to hit targets across Southeast Asia, including the entire Philippines and South China Sea. Beijing also plans to establish a military garrison in the South China Sea, from which its ships and planes can conduct patrols and other operations instead of coming all the way from the mainland. Huge volumes of China’s trade, including 80% of its oil imports, go through the South China Sea — now within easy reach of U.S. forces expanding their deployment in and around the Philippines. China has largely depended on missiles to counter vastly superior U.S. naval forces, including “carrier-killer rocket” reportedly being developed. But the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) navy still needs ocean-going ships and submarines to conduct patrols and escort merchant shipping through potentially hostile waters.

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China now has the second biggest navy in the world next to the United States. Beijing just launched its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in October, though the vessel was built in Ukraine. With the current economic boom in China they can definitely afford to build a powerful navy. Caught between the burgeoning naval forces of China and America, the Philippines is also modernizing its navy — slowly. The Center for American Security in its Bulletin 3 entitled “Defending the Philippines: Modernization and Challenges Ahead” argued that the most that RP can do now is to build up radar and missile capabilities. Secretary of National Defense Voltaire Gazmin is going towards that direction. With anti-ship missiles, even small aircraft and boats can take out major surface vessels. In the 1982 Falklands War, a British destroyer was sunk by one Exocet missile fired by a SuperEtenard fighter-bomber. Though the Philippines is a longtime ally of the U.S., some political scientists doubt that America will go to war with China in the event of hostilities over territorial claims. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had announced that Washington takes a neutral stand on the dispute. Thankfully, many scholars and diplomats also doubt that Beijing will go to war with Manila over the islands, if only to avoid driving all of Southeast Asia into the U.S. camp. On the other hand, the presence in the Philippines of U.S. forces able to interdict vital oil shipments and attack China with cruise missiles — that could well be cause for military action, especially if there is a Sino-American confrontation over, say, Taiwan. Hence, Filipino leaders must think hard whether letting American forces increase deployment in the country is only turning the Philippines into a strategic threat and target for China without no real boost to Philippine defenses in the event of a conflict over disputed islands.

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Advice in Aid of Business

A look at business groups’ wish lists for the government By Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS Greater efficiency and consistency in laws and regulations governing business and other sectors are among the main recommendations of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and its affiliates The Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce has specific, macro-economic targets, including 9% annual Gross Domestic Product growth and a $100-billion export sector before or by the end of the Aquino administration

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eter Wallace of Wallace Business Forum commended President Aquino on enacting certain crucial reforms but said many more are needed, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported in a Nov. 20 news story. In a speech during his forum’s 30th anniversary celebration, Wallace called on President Aquino to use his high confidence ratings as political capital to implement necessary though tough and unpopular reforms. He acknowledged that Aquino has implemented certain reforms -- greater transparency in bidding for government projects and handling of government owned corporations, and the pocket open skies policy, among others – but still needs to exert more effort.

Good job not enough for some? While the

report cited the Wallace Business Forum’s own latest Quarterly Perception Survey (available to members

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only) in pointing out that 68% of respondents thought the President was doing a good job, it also noted that 41.7% said his efforts “were not enough.” The report also noted that there were respondents who said the President was only giving a “moderate effort” to support business and only “somewhat” aggressive in pushing for reforms needed to improve business conditions. With all the attention on reforms and accomplishments, “It is business that is not getting the attention needed,” Wallace was quoted as saying. Wallace recommended that the President use his political capital to get certain things done: build vital infrastructure, spend government money to spur growth, resolve the open-pit mining ban, and upgrade the air safety ranking of the Philippines. On the social front, a quick resolution of the Maguindanao massacre and other cases of extrajudicial killings was equally important.

The JFC’s wish list for a new administration.

At the start of the Aquino administration in July 2010, the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce (JFC) also gave some advice on how to best maximize the country’s economic potential, urging the government to “move twice as fast!” while focusing on seven sectors: agribusiness, business process outsourcing, creative industries, infrastructure, manufacturing and logistics, tourism, and medical travel and retirement. The JFC created Arangkada Philippines, a website which features a “comprehensive menu of recommendations,” including defined targets, for improving the country’s economy.

Not quite there yet. Against the benchmarks set by the JFC, how is the government faring? In a couple of words, not quite there yet.

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The group is pushing for a tighter focus on concrete economic indicators, such as a higher GDP growth target of 9%. The current government GDP growth target is set at 6%, on the heels of 6.1% growth for the first semester of 2012, according to an Oct. 17 Philippine Information Agency news release. The Philippines also has the highest unemployment rate in Southeast Asia despite enjoying comparatively higher economic growth of late. As of 2011, the unemployment rate stood at 7%, more than double the regional average of 3.2%, according to Ibon Foundation. (It should also be noted that the 2011 unemployment rate is basically unchanged from that of July 2010, and that the unemployment rate as of June stood at 6.9%, also basically unchanged.)

FDI inflows off the pace of end-2011. In terms

of foreign direct investments (FDI), inflow as of the first semester of 2012 stood at P62.6 billion, or about US$1.5 billion (see table below). However, in the fourth quarter alone of 2011, the National Statistical Coordination Board reported that FDIs reached ₱165.8 billion.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 1ST SEMESTER, 2011 AND 2012 sem1 2012

62.6

sem1 2011

62.3

in billion pesos

Graph on FDIs from the National Statistical Coordination Board

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For 2011, total approved FDI amounted to ₱256.1 billion, or about US$ 6.2 billion, not so far off the JFC target of US$7 billion a year.

Exports still way off the mark. Exports

amounted to about US$48 billion in 2011, according to the Department of Trade and Industry. For the first half of 2012, total exports were almost US$27 billion.

However, according to a November 5 Inquirer report, exports are expected to fall below target this year. The growth target for 2012 was set at 10%, but due to the downturn in electronic shipments, increase in revenues is expected to be between 5-7%. Starting next year, exporters have set a growth target of 11% per annum, to reach the US$120 billion mark

JOINT FOREIGN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT HEADLINE RECOMMENDATIONS 1.

The new Philippine administration should consider adopting as a major high priority policy goal doubling the GDP growth rate to 9 percent and adopt and implement a plan to achieve this within 3 years. This has to be supported by a clear long-term industry policy.

Job creation by the private sector should recieve extremely high priority, to reduce unemployment and underemployment by 50% and to give Filipinos more alternatives to working abroad.

FDI should be targeted to reach over US$ 7 billion26 a year in 3-4 years. FDI should also be measured in terms of job creation and exports (products and services) generated.

An export target of US$ 100 billion27 in 5-6 years should be set, with more diversified exports and new markets.

Adequate funds should be made available for internal promotion of Philippine exoprts, inwards investments and tourism, medical travel and retirement programs.28

A significant share of remittances should be channeled into productive investments in the domestic economy through bonds and other funds.

Double funds available for physical and social infrastructure, civil service quality improvement, investment, tourism and trade promotion, and other growth-promoting expenditures through less waste in government spending, more effective tax collection, and selectively increasing the Expanded Value Addad Tax (EVAT), before other taxes.

Public and private sectors should organize a Special Experts Group comprising economic, business, labor, and government leaders to recommend key reforms to make the economy grow at least 9%.

26 US$ 7.5 billion is 2.5 times the net FDI in 2006 and 2007 27 US$ 100 billion is double the value of exports in 1987 and assumes a 20% rate of increase from 2010 28 Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) launched a new Philippine Investment Promotion Plan in mid-2010 to coordinate the efforts of 11 investment promotion agencies (IPAs). However, no aditional budget for promotion was announced. Graphic from “Headline Recommendations,” Arangkada Philippines, 2010.

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by 2016, higher than the JFC’s target of US$100 billion a year. The group also called for more funding for the promotion of Philippine exports and encouraging inbound investments.

The devil in the details. At the recently

concluded Philippine Business Conference in October, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) presented a consolidated 13-point agenda to President Aquino. Very specific recommendations were made for several identified sectors, including education, agriculture and environment.

The government and the National Competitiveness Council collaborated on the promotional video above, where they invite businesses to “Invest in the Philippines.”

1. On ASEAN integration in 2015, business leaders urged the government to undertake a comprehensive awareness and readiness program. This economic integration will mean the elimination of tariffs, freer movement of capital and a streamlined customs clearance procedure, among other things. 2. In the agriculture sector, the group is calling the banking industry to increase loanable funds for this sector, and for the Department of Agriculture to promote the use of hybrid seeds in rice production. The government itself has made agricultural development a centerpiece program. In 2012, the budget was increased by 51.3% or P53.3 billion, according to the Official Gazette. In the past, there was significant increase in palay production, from 15.7 million metric tons in 2010 to 16.7 metric tons in 2011. There was a 65% decline in rice importation for 2011, with a further 42% reduction targeted for 2012. 3. The resolutions are calling for an increasing in the education budget to ₱400 billion (3.5 to 4% of GDP). The Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) is being tasked

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to consult with the private sector to review curricula in order to attune them more closely with industry needs. In the government’s Draft Medium Term Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016, chapter 2 on Industry and Services, this is addressed in the plan to have greater coordination between industry, academe and government in identifying and assessing the required skills in key industries. However, there is no discussion of more concrete action on this matter. 4. On the energy, power and water sector, the PBC resolutions call on the Department of Energy to establish a National Demand and Supply Aggregator for efficiency in supply and pricing. The group supports the Department of Energy’s efforts to create a sustainable power supply program and a comprehensive energy plan for power-outage stricken Mindanao. According to a July Manila Bulletin news article, a policy agenda for Mindanao resulting from the Mindanao Business Conference in August is also incorporated here. 5. Environmental concerns emphasized effective waste management. The Ecological Solid

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Waste Management Act of 2000 needs strict implementation. This law mandates segregation at source and segregated collection, which very few barangays practice at present. The government’s medium-term plan tackles this in the section on infrastructure chapter 4 (part VI), where it plans to establish a start-up fund to accelerate implementation of this law. Toxic and hazardous waste is also a rising concern, and the PCCI calls for encouraging investors to establish Treatment, Storage and Disposal facilities by including this among the government’s investment priorities. The PCCI also urges the government to fund and establish a National Ecology Center for establishing environmentally acceptable materials and providing the sole guide for local government units before they unilaterally phase out materials they deem “non-environmentally acceptable.” In addition, the group calls for the creation of a National Environment Management Authority to enforce laws meant to curb air, water and land pollution. 6. On housing and construction, both the PCCI and the government are seeking the immediate passage of the National Land Use Act, as mentioned in the medium term plans section on environment and natural resources, chapter 9 (part III). This act will rationalize land use all over the country. 7. The group is urging government to create a separate Department of Information and Communication Technology to further boost the IT-BPO sector. 8. On trade and industry matters, the primary concern is to combat smuggling, with specific steps for the Bureau of Customs, i.e., to file inward manifest and import documents and to establish the authenticity of registered warehouses.

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The group is also calling on Congress to create the Philippine Trade Representative Office. Also, national and local government regulations for businesses need to be synchronized. 9. On mining, the concern is likewise on making national and local laws consistent. There is also a call to expand the coverage of the Extractive Industries Transparency Act beyond the minerals sector. 10. On small and medium enterprises, there is a push to expand their access to loans. The group is encouraging micro, small and medium enterprises to register in the Finex SME portal and communicate their credit requirements. Another specific piece of advice is for the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) to establish incubation centers in state universities and colleges around the country. One such center is the UP-AyalaTBI in Technology Park South, Diliman campus. 11. The group calls for effective management of the strengthening peso, by transferring the financial burden of maintaining the peso-dollar exchange rate from the Central Bank to the national coffers. 12. In taxation, there is a need to make local revenue ordinances consistent with the Local Government Code. This is also in the government’s medium-term plans section on Macro policies, chapter 1 (part II). The group also calls for transparency in the hearings conducted by the Department of Finance and the Bureau of Internal Revenue. 13. In the transportation sector, there is a call to create a master plan that seamlessly links the different areas of our archipelago. The Ninoy Aquino International Airport should be made the

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domestic air-travel hub, while the Diosdado Macapagal Airport, north of Manila, be made the international gateway. General aviation should be moved to Sangley or Lipa, south of Manila. There should be round-the-clock work shift for customs, immigration and quarantine personnel. The Common Carriers Tax, which puts a 3% tax on airlines gross revenues, should be immediately repealed (a bill is pending approval in the Senate). Subic can be made a cruise hub. The group also calls for the expansion of RO-RO (roll-on, roll-off) services and the implementation of RO-RO projects with China and Indonesia. The government’s plans for developing RO-RO service are included in the government’s medium-term plans section on Infrastructure, chapter 4 (part II.B). Regarding most sectors, business and government seem to share the same vision and direction, even though some programs might still need fine-tuning and the additional inputs of the business sector. The important points might lie in developing an open communication process along with good measures of enlightened self-interest. Everyone is for the common good, after all, at least until we see how that might affect us personally.

News & Strategy Alerts Business

Learn English in the Philippines — cheap! More and more Asians study English or want to — a lucrative market for the Philippines with its competitive costs and Englishspeaking population. For security — a major overseas concern — institutions can build in-campus housing for expat students, and branches outside Metro Manila for foreigners learning English.

BBC video on foreigners flocking to the Philippines to study English

A BBC news report cited the Philippines as having the lowest cost for learning English or earning professional degrees. The former U.S. colony uses English as the primary medium of instruction and one of the official languages, and 78.53 % of the population can speak, read and write in English. The Philippines takes pride of its educational system. Several institutions like the University of the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila University, University of Santo Tomas, De La Salle University, and University of Southeastern Philippines made the list of Asia’s top universities. And among global leaders in English language and literature are Ateneo (ranked 24th worldwide), UP (32nd) and De La Salle (44th). But the big lure in studying in the Philippines is the low tuition fees and cost of living, along with excellent

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English-language education and milieu, as websites like studyinphilippines.com promote. The Bureau of Immigration counts 61,000 foreign students this year. More and more Asians are learning English. As nations develop rapidly, they need to enter into the mainstream of global trade and industry whose medium of communication is English. In Asia one obstacle is the language barrier. China is quick to address this by sending students to English-speaking countries to learn the language. This is a more intensive way of studying English since students will have to use it in daily interactions. China is a huge market for educational tourism. In Australia, for example, it is an $18-billion-a-year industry. Most foreign students in Australia are Chinese. However, there are challenges for the Philippines in attracting foreign students, from Metro Manila traffic and pollution to bureaucratic red tape and corruption. Many Chinese are discouraged from studying in the Philippines because of the negative picture painted by media reports on crime, rebellion and especially kidnapping. An innovative example was done by De La Salle University System. It designated its provincial schools such as De La Salle Lipa in Batangas province, south of Manila, and the University of St. La Salle in Bacolod City in the Visayas to be the centers for learning English for foreign students. These two institutions also inked partnerships with several Chinese universities, assuring them of an annual inflow of foreign students. There are also institutes set up and marketed for foreigners wanting to learn English, like Cebu Pacific International Language School in the premier Visayan metropolis. The government and other educational institutions can learn from La Salle’s innovative example in promoting educational tourism. Besides cost, clearly, security, living standards and quality of instruction are key selling points. Take care of those features, and English-language learning can be a gold mine for the Philippines.

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BPI-PNB-Allied may trigger more bank mergers The planned BPI-PNB merger would create the country’s biggest bank — and prompt rival institutions to also grow by acquisition. While boosting economies of scale, bigger banks are also harder to closely manage, as U.S. and Europe failures have shown. In its quest for financial stability, the Bangko Sentral is right to watch how banks controlled by conglomerates deal with affiliate firms

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) and the Philippine National Bank (PNB) are discussing a merger, according to Nov. 22 press reports. Both BPI and PNB have confirmed talks between the Ayala Group and the Lucio Tan Group, which control BPI and PNB respective, through BPI and PNB statements to the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) requesting suspension of trading in their shares. The Philippine Star report noted that PNB and Allied Banking Corp., another Tan-controlled bank, are also in the final stages of their merger, with PNB as the surviving entity. The BPI-PNB deal would create the country’s largest bank. Based on December 2011 data, the combined assets of BPI, PNB, and Allied Bank would amount to ₱1.17 trillion, rivaling Henry Syowned Banco de Oro’s ₱1.07 trillion. The BPI banking network expansion coincides with Ayala’s expanding interests outside Metro Manila, including telecommunications, property development, and water services. Apart from BPI, the Ayala Group has stakes in companies like Globe Telecom, Ayala Land

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and Manila Water. In addition, the growing opportunities in reaching out to overseas Filipinos are worth noting. The World Bank projects the money will reach $24 billion, making the country the world’s third-largest recipient of money from migrant workers, as noted in a Philippine Daily Inquirer report. The PNB acquisition would enlarge BPI’s bank network with PNB’s widespread and centrally situated branches — a legacy of its days as a government bank and a crucial asset in the multi-billion-dollar remittance business. Says PNB website: “PNB maintains its leadership in the overseas remittance business with remittance centers in the United States, Canada, England, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and the Middle East.” PNB was established as a government-owned banking institution in July 1916. In early 2000, the Lucio Tan Group became the single biggest private stockholder, pumping in nearly ₱20 billion fresh capital in less than a year. In May 2002, the national government and the Lucio Tan group signed a Memorandum of Agreement for the rehabilitation of PNB, which addressed the settlement of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC) advances with a balance of ₱23.9 billion to PNB following a liquidity crisis.

Lucio Tan’s sale of PNB continues the restructuring of his business empire as part of his succession planning, reports The Manila Times. This year he put his interests in an allembracing holding company, then sold Philippine Airlines to San Miguel. With these moves, Tan is amassing cash amid continuing global economic malaise, which could hit businesses while offering good asset buys for the cashrich. Meanwhile, an analyst speaking to the Times said the merger may spur more of the same, just as the 1990 Equitable-PCIBank union prompted Metrobank to do its own buying spree to keep its top asset position. The Sy family’s Banco de Oro, which rose to No. 1 by buying Equitable-PCIBank, may also bring other institutions into its fold. The Sys already control tenthranked China Banking Corp. but has kept it independent in gratitude for its assistance to founding patriarch Henry Sy Sr. in the early years of his flagship SM enterprise. Another issue to consider is the impact of bank mergers on the stability of the financial system. The 2008 global financial crisis left the world worried over institutions supposedly too big to fail. The BSP earlier said it would monitor more closely big banks linked to conglomerates and how they are affected by the performance of their affliliate enterprises, in a Nov. 10 Inquirer report. The central bank added that its latest regulatory move aims to maintain financial sector stability.

BEFORE THE MERGER The Biggest Philippine Banks

Assets, loans, deposits and capital in billions of pesos Name of Bank

Assets

Market Share

Loans

Market Share

Deposits

Market Share

Capital

Market

BDO

1,102.5

15.7%

668.7

21.3%

857.2

16.8%

95.5

12.8%

Metrobank

959.3

13.7%

459.8

14.7%

682.5

13.4%

111.0

14.9%

BPI

835.9

11.9%

445.0

14.2%

682.2

13.4%

85.1

11.4%

LandBank

640.3

9.1%

238.3

7.6%

507.3

10.0%

71.8

9.6%

RCBC

350.1

5.0%

166.0

5.3%

256.8

5.0%

42.3

5.7%

DBP

340.8

4.9%

112.9

3.6%

158.6

3.1%

41.8

5.6%

PNB

316.7

4.5%

113.2

3.6%

237.1

4.7%

35.7

4.8%

Union Bank

269.1

3.8%

85.1

2.7%

206.8

4.1%

39.4

5.3%

Citibank

266.7

3.8%

111.8

3.6%

142.0

2.8%

8.0

1.1%

China Bank

263.1

3.7%

149.1

4.8%

216.4

4.2%

36.0

4.8%

All Banks

7,026.1

100%

3,136.7

100.0%

5,092.5

100.0%

745.5

100.0%

Table from bank data cited by affordablecebu.com

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Is Social Media Promoting Risky Behavior? Facebook and YouTube may be causing an increase in risky behavior around the world

STRATEGY POINTS Health authorities in the Philippines are attributing a spike in new HIV cases to social media, and commentators in Uganda are similarly concerned about social media promoting promiscuous behavior Other research finds that an increase in risky behavior online might not necessarily be due to the Internet itself but rather to the people who get online Social media may be magnifying peer pressure among adolescents

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Is social media promoting risky behavior?

ith World AIDS Day approaching on December 1, it might be good to note that according to the “2012 UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic,” the Philippines is one of only nine nations in the world to register a more than 25% increase in the number of new HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) cases among ages 15-49 from 2001-2011.

November 4, 2012 to find out the link between HIV and STD and social networking sites like Facebook. The results of the study showed that OSN has become a convenient tool for MSMs to meet sexual partners. “What’s the influence of OSN use among MSM? MSM can meet without fear of negative social consequences and it can also create new opportunities to meet sex partners,” Tayag said in the Philippine Star report.

Even more alarming is that based on the September 2012 Philippine HIV and AIDS Registry prepared by the National Epidemiology Center of the Department of Health (DOH), the number of new HIV cases in the country continues to increase. The report revealed that there were 316 new HIV cases as of September 2012 or a 25% increase compared to only 253 cases in the same period last year. The report further showed that 96% of new HIV patients are males and that 82% of them got HIV by having sex with other males.

Out of 180 MSM respondents of the study, 124 admitted meeting OSN members for date and sexual activities. Those who engaged in sex were aged 14 to 36 years old with 21 as median age.While most of the respondents said that they used condoms during intercourse, 68% of the respondents admitted that they do not do it “consistently.”

Director of the National Epidemiology Center, Dr. Eric Tayag, told ABS-CBN in a November 20 interview on Bandila that one of the reasons for the spike in the number of new HIV cases in the country is social media. “Sa pamamagitan ng social media, nagkakaroon silang pagkakataon na mas marami silang sexual partners (Through social media, they have the opportunity to meet more sexual partners),” Tayag said. In an earlier Philippine Star article posted on the Philippine Council for Health Research and Development website of the Department of Science and Technology on October 22, Dr. Tayag said that the DOH conducted a study entitled “Online Social Networking (OSN) Use and Risks for HIV and other Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STD) among men Having Sex with Men (MSM),” from September 1 to

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Director of the National Epidemiology Center, Dr. Eric Tayag, in an interview with Bandila, blaming social media as one of the reasons for the increase in the number of new HIV cases in the Philippines

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Social media fueling HIV/AIDS? Meanwhile,

Ugandan broadsheet New Vision, in a Nov. 24 commentary, “Social media is fueling HIV/AIDS prevalence,” discusses Ugandan-administered Facebook pages, accounts and groups that seem to promote promiscuous and irresponsible behavior. One such site mentioned in the article is the No Strings Attached Sex Uganda. The article mentioned testimonials from Facebook users who use the social media site to look for sexual partners. According to Facebook user “James,” Facebook is “facilitating sex” and at the moment, he has “hooked up with six random girls on Facebook. “Kahuma,” also a Facebook user, admitted “recruiting few sexual partners from social networks.” But according to the 2010 paper “Reconsidering the Internet as an HIV/STD Risk for Men Who Have Sex With Men,” by Samuel M. Jenness, Alan Neaigus, Holly Hagan, Travis Wendel, Camila Gelpi-Acosta, and Christopher S. Murrill, while the Internet has brought about the growth of “online partner seeking,” which has resulted in risky behavior in some cases, this scenario is not common. “Online partner seeking has grown exponentially over the past decade. Many thought that the Internet would increase risk among MSMs by allowing for anonymous and efficient partnerships that were intentionally risky. In some cases, that has occurred. But most studies tying sexual risk to the Internet have used analytic approaches that can only show that risky MSM use the Internet,” the paper reported. What the paper also discovered is that behavioral risks are higher among MSMs with both offline and online partners. Of the 479 MSMs who were included in the study, 136, or 28%, admitted to having online partners in the past year, and the remaining 343, or

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72%, only had only offline partners. Of the 136 with online partners, 24, or 8%, had only online partners and 112 or 82% had both offline and online partners. “In our study of offline-recruited MSM from New York City, we found that most MSM who met partners online also met them offline. Several behavioral risks and STDs were higher among MSM with both offline/online partners, but this association was largely explained by the confounding effects of multiple partnerships,” the paper concluded. It would appear however that MSMs are not the only ones engaging in risky behavior on social media. Adolescents who have free access to the Internet also meet sexual partners online.

Smartphones and online solicitation for sex. A 2012 study conducted by the University

of Southern California School of Social Work led by Assistant Professor Eric Rice, revealed that the “use of smartphones is associated with an increased likelihood of being solicited for sex on the Internet and having sex with an Internet-met partner among teens.” According to the research, young people with smartphones are “1.5 times as likely to report being sexually active, almost two times as likely to have been approached online for sex, and more than twice as likely to engage in sex with an Internet-met partner compared with those who do not access the Internet on their cell phones.” Additionally, 5% of the participants admitted using the Internet to find sex partners, while 17% said that someone they did not know has approached them online for sex. For those who engaged in sex with an Internet-met partner, results showed that they also engage in unprotected sex.

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Is social media promoting risky behavior?

Online bullying drives a teenager to suicide On September 7, 2012, Canadian teenager Amanda Todd posted a video on YouTube called, “My story: Struggling, bullying, suicide, self harm.” Todd recounted in the video that when she was in 7th grade, she “would go with friends on webcam to meet and talk to new people” and “got called stunning, beautiful, perfect, etc.” One person Todd was chatting with asked her to flash her chest, to which Todd agreed. A year later, the man was able to track Todd on Amanda Todd’s cry for help one month before she committed suicide Facebook and told her that he had a photo of her chest and would share this with everyone if she did not “put on a show for him.” When Todd did not relent, the man posted Todd’s chest on Facebook and Todd became a victim of bullying in and out of school, leading to her depression. On October 10, more than a month after posting her video on YouTube, Todd committed suicide. She was 15 years old. According to an article, “Impact of Social Media on Adolescent Behavioral Health in California,” posted on the California Adolescent Health Collaborative site, one of the dangers of social media is that adolescents can become victims of unwanted online sexual solicitation and sexual predation. The article defined unwanted online sexual solicitation as “the act of encouraging someone to talk about sex, to do something sexual, or to share personal sexual information even when that person does not want to” (Ybarra, 2007). Online sexual predation occurs when an adult makes contact with a minor with intent to engage in sexual activities that would result in statutory rape. Youth are much more likely to receive sexual solicitation between same-age youth than sexual predation and most of these solicitations come from same-age peers who are known offline (Collins, 2011).

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‘Digital peer pressure moves beyond a child’s friends and the kids they hang out with’ - former U.S. HEW Secretary Joseph Califano

Social media influencing teen attitudes about substance abuse. According to the

2012 National Survey of American Attitudes on Substance Abuse XVII: Teens conducted by the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse At Columbia University (CASAColumbia), 75% of 12- to 17-year olds in the U.S. said that “seeing pictures of teens partying with alcohol or marijuana on Facebook, MySpace or another social networking site encourages other teens to want to party like that.”The survey also found out that 45% of teens “have seen pictures online of other teens getting drunk, passed out or using drugs” and 47% of those who have seen such pictures said that “it seems like the teens in the pictures are having a good time.”

• Four times likelier to have used marijuana; • More than three times likelier to have used alcohol, and; • Almost three times likelier to have used tobacco.”

Internet magnifies peer pressure? “This

year’s survey reveals a new kind of potent peer pressure—digital peer pressure. Digital peer pressure moves beyond a child’s friends and the kids they hang out with. It invades the home and a child’s bedroom via the Internet,” said Joseph A. Califano, Jr., founder and chairman emeritus of CASAColumbia and former U.S. Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare. “So parents should be aware of what their children are viewing on social networking sites. If their teens are seeing pictures of other teens partying with marijuana and alcohol, getting drunk or passed out, or using drugs, they may think it looks like fun and want to try it.” Meanwhile, earlier research by the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health in 2009, as reported in Quad-City Times, studied the relationship between “risky behavior among adolescents such as underage drinking and smoking, and posting about it on social media websites such as Facebook or YouTube.”

The CASAColumbia teen survey results also reported the following alarming results:

According to Dr. Megan Moreno, assistant professor of pediatrics at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health and one of the researchers who conducted the study, results showed that social media can amplify peer pressure among kids, acting as an outlet to display risky behavior.

“Compared to teens who have not seen pictures on Facebook or another social networking site of kids getting drunk, passed out, or using drugs, teens who have seen such pictures are:

“There is this feeling that you are kind of on stage,” Moreno said. “They are watching media to see what is normal and watching their peers about what is normal. They want to mimic what they see.”

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Is social media promoting risky behavior?

Moreno added social media makes the risky behavior “more relatable than seeing it in movies or television.” She explained, “If the kid next door is doing it, why can’t I?” The chief of pediatric emergency medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Dr. Thomas Abramo, witnessed this attitude among teens of imitating what they see on social media in the emergency room everyday. In an ABC News Radio article, Abramo said that although this is not the first time he is seeing teens acting on “risky behavior fads,” he believes that YouTube and social media are causing these fads to be emulated faster. “If you get one kid doing it, you tend to see more kids doing it,” said Abramo, who said two of his patients have died playing the choking game. “The spread of the event is definitely faster.” Dr. Alan Hilfer, a child psychologist at Maimonides Medical Center, also told ABC News Radio that he “thinks the existing videos validate risky behavior for teens and give them a way to get notoriety if they post a video.” Dr. Carol Bernstein, a psychiatry professor at New York University’s Langone Medical Center, said, however, that YouTube alone is not solely to blame for risky and dangerous behavior among teens. Other environmental factors, physiology, and temperament are other factors that may lead to a child’s decision to mimic a video on YouTube, she elaborated. “Stress here should be on knowing our children, watching behaviors and having conversations with them,” Bernstein said. “There’s no substitute for parents and teachers who are engaging with their kids in general.”

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News & Strategy Alerts Health/Lifestyle

Sounding the alarm on antibiotic abuse Without action, antibiotics could become powerless to treat many common infections. The Department of Health should study antibiotic use among Filipinos and institute measures to regulate and ensure proper medication. The public should constantly be advised to seek medical advice before taking antibiotics and to complete the prescribed course of the treatment. Health authorities in the United States are sounding the alarm on the use of antibiotics – the “wonder drugs.” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and a coalition of 25 health-care organizations are joining forces to fight the overuse of antibiotics in people and livestock in a bid to curb the rise of drug-resistant “superbugs,” according to a Reuters report published on GMA News Online. CDC experts and the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, a public health research group, warned that without action, patients could soon find antibiotics powerless to treat many of the most common infections like diarrhea, coughs and colds. The development and widespread use of anti-microbial agents to clinical medicine was one of the greatest medical triumphs of the 20th century that revolutionized the treatment of bacterial diseases, OO Komolafe wrote in the Malawi Medical Journal. However, the gradual emergence of populations of antibiotic-resistant bacteria resulting from use, misuse, and outright abuse of antibiotics has today become a major public health problem of global proportions. In developing countries, Iruka Okeke et al wrote that acquired bacterial resistance to antimicrobial agents is

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common in isolates from healthy persons from persons with community-acquired infections. Complex socioeconomic and behavioral factors associated with antibiotic resistance in developing tropical countries include misuse of health professionals, unskilled practitioners, and laypersons; poor drug quality, unhygienic conditions accounting for the spread of resistant bacteria, and of inadequate surveillance. According to Okeke et al., excessive clinical use (a form of misuse) is at least partially responsible for escalating rates of resistance, especially in hospital settings worldwide. The unnecessary prescription of antibiotics seen in industrialized nations has also been documented in many developing countries, particularly in cases of acute infantile diarrhea and viral respiratory infections. Clinical misuse of antibiotics may be more common among private practitioners than among public health personnel. Private practitioners charge higher fees, the demand for antibiotics seen in private patients is higher, and more drugs are available in private clinics than in public hospitals, according to Okeke et. al. They also also blame drug resistance to the practice common in most developing countries where antibiotics can be purchased without prescription, even when the practice is illegal. In many African, Asian and Latin American countries, antibiotics are readily available on demand from hospitals, pharmacies, and drugstores. In the Philippines, four common practices of antibiotic misuse that promote emergence of super bugs: selfmedication, skipping a dose of antibiotic, not finishing the prescribed treatment course, and using antibiotic as an over-the-counter drugs, observes Dr. Rontgene Solante, president of the Philippine Society of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

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Self-medication happens when a patient buys antibiotics without prior medical consultation. Due to high consultation fee, some patients borrow a used prescription, or follow the advice of relatives and friends in buying antibiotics, to economize spending. According to Solante, skipping a dose of antibiotics is improper practice. He said patients who miss a dose or several doses of antibiotic are allowing bacteria to recover from, and develop a resistance, to the antibiotic’s effects. There is also a risk of infection resurgence. Solante added some patients do not finish the prescribed treatment course of the antibiotics prescribed to them. They stop taking the antibiotics once they feel better. Others are unable to buy all the antibiotics prescribed because they do not have enough money. Furthermore, Solante said some use antibiotics as over-the-counter drugs. Antibiotics are powerful medications that must be used only under a doctor’s supervision. Unfortunately, some patients mistakenly believe that antibiotics are used to relieve symptoms like fever, body pain, coughs and colds. No doubt changing the ways of medical personnel, drugstore attendants, and patients will require a comprehensive and sustained strategy and program. The Department of Health should devise one urgently and get it into the 2014 budget, or even realign funds from 2013. A multi-year plan like The National Microbial Resistance Monitoring System of the U.S. is a good model to start with. And there are enough studies on which to base policymaking, such as “Inappropriate Antibiotic Use in the Philippines,” by Dr. Emmanuel Edwin Dy. The campaign should partner the Department of Health with the Philippine Medical Association, media,

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pharmaceutical firms, and even veterinary and agriculture bodies. The DOH’s issuance of a warning on super bugs in April 2011 must graduate to a more intensive and extensive education and information initiative. At the same time, Philhealth and DOH should make resources available for the poor to buy and take the full dose of prescribed medication. Even the wealthy should contribute to this effort, if only for their own future health. The failure to arrest antibiotic abuse will breed resistant diseases that could strike anyone, rich or poor. And no amount of money can buy a cure for supergerms made impervious to modern medicines.

More than one in four Filipinos lack toilets

Investing in clean toilets and hygiene education will not only improve lives, but boost the economy as well On World Toilet Day the United Nations Children’s Fund highlights the formidable challenge of improving sanitation in areas of the country with no clean toilets. Unicef counts some 26 million Filipinos with no access to toilets, with 7.4 million still “openly defecating,” according to a Nov. 20 Philippine Star report. Unicef water, sanitation, and hygiene specialist Dr. Michael Gnilo cited data from a Unicef-World Health Organization monitoring program. It revealed that most toilet-less households are in the country’s poorest areas: Masbate, Northern Samar, and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. Poverty and lack of

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The report, “Progress on Drinking Water and Sanitation 2012,” notes that while 1.8 billion people have gained access to improved sanitation since 1990, “the world remains off track for the sanitation target.” The good news, though, is that as of 2010, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target for drinking water has been met, with more than 2 billion people worldwide gaining access to improved drinking water since 1990. However, an estimated 2.5 billion people still live without proper sanitation, and 1.1 billion or almost one in seven human beings still resort to open defecation, mostly in rural areas. More than half of the 2.5 billion people without improved sanitation live in China or India. “Lack of sanitation is a serious health risk and an affront to human dignity,” argues WHO. Better sanitation help prevent the spread of killer disease. In a document prepared by WHO, human excreta transmit germs for cholera, typhoid, infectious hepatitis, polio, cryptosporidiosis, and ascariasis. WHO lists more water-related diseases on its website.

Some 26 million Filipinos have no access, according to Unicef and WHO, imposing huge social and economic costs on poor communities

supplies are cited as the primary reasons why household don’t have toilets.

The WHO paper also notes direct medical costs for the individual and the government due to illnesses caused by poor sanitation, not to mention decreased productivity, lower product quality resulting from poor water quality, reduced tourism income, and clean-up costs. Conversely, clean toilets and proper sanitation prevent disease and foster economic growth. The Philippine Development Plan health, water and sanitation targets for 2016, found on page 68, aim to increase access to toilet facilities to 85.9% of the population in 2015, from 76.8% in 2010. That’s just slightly below the safe water access target of 86.9%, which is coming from a higher base of 82.3%. These targets must get priority funding not just to improve living standards, but to save countless lives.

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The Tablets Are Coming!

It’s a jungle out there, as manufacturers scramble to move past the personal computer By Bill Huang

STRATEGY POINTS The battle to shape the next paradigm after the desktop workstation seems to be centering around the tablet The personal computer is not quite dead, however, and manufacturers aren’t done trying to develop the next big innovation in that field

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The tablets are coming!

Portablility, connectivity, and interactivity continue to drive developments in the computing world. If the desktop personal computer hasn’t reached its peak yet, it’s going to take a longer time to get there than before. In short, desktop PCs sales are at a plateau, per this chart from Statista (registration required) projecting computing device sales from 2009 to 2013. Based on sales figures from 2009 and 2010, desktop PC sales are tabbed to continue rising into 2013, just not at the rates predicted for notebooks and tablets. In fact, according to the graph, notebooks overtook desktop PCs in 2010 and are tapped to keep on rising from there.

What’s interesting about that graph is that tablets hit the market only in 2010, with 16 million units sold, but by 2013, Statista estimates that the market will grow to 102 million, a 637.5% increase. What happened in 2010 was the launch of Apple’s iPad. As recounted by tech blogger Michael Gabriel Sumastre, writing in Technopedia: “In just 12 months, more than 15 million units were sold, sales levels that … blew first-year predictions of 4 to 5 million right out of the water.” Tablet sales, he continued, were “impressive enough to cause all the other PC, mobile phone and electronics manufacturers to drop what they were doing and start making tablets.”

GLOBAL SALES OF COMPUTING DEVICES 2009-2010 WITH FORECASTS TO 2013 300

Sales in million units

232 210 189

200 136

146

135

164

157

152

159

102

100

85 55 36

34 0

0 2009

2010

Desktop-PC’s

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Essential tips for evaluating tablets.

Seven-inch screens are better for consuming content on the go, while 10-inch screens are better for getting work done

Where the money is. To be sure, Apple’s

iPad is still the big name in tablets, but it’s not the only name. Sumastre goes on to cite PriceWaterhouseCoopers in saying that there were 30 tablets competing with the iPad in 2010, and that number is closer to 100 now. He also cites PWC in saying that tablet PCs are “where the money is … a unique opportunity to corner both the smartphone and markets.” That’s probably a good way to sum up both the opportunity and the resulting confusion as manufacturers juggle form factors (7-inch vs. 10inch) and functions (e-readers vs. Web browsing vs. workstations) in their attempts to provide the most bang for the buck, so to speak. It’s also a good indicator that tablets will continue to dominate the discussion, as manufacturers continue to look for the right combination of features to challenge the iPad’s current domination of the market while possibly providing a viable alternative to the desktop PC.

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Laptopmag.com provides five essential tips for gifting someone with a tablet, and in the process, provides a good introduction to tablets. In a nutshell, the tips involve: settling on a size, choosing the right operating system, determining how the beneficiary will be using the tablet, whether there are available parental controls (if the beneficiary is a child), and getting the right size for the right price, i.e., balancing all the features against your budget. (Quick rule of thumb: 7-inch screens are better for consuming content on the go, while 10-inch screens are better for getting work done.) Consumer Reports has its own informative tablet buying guide online, which lists 19 manufacturers, including Apple, and provides a basic description of the tablets currently on the market. It also provides ratings of the products, for which a paid subscription is required. (One important reminder: can you get by with just Wi-Fi connectivity for your tablet, or will you need broadband connectivity as well? Wi-Fi is good enough for most, it suggests.)

Tablets as PC replacements. Among the

key questions – if not THE key question -- to ask is whether one is considering buying a tablet to replace one’s desktop computer. While the improved portability of a tablet over a desktop, notebook, or even a netbook computer is an important consideration, one major selling point of a tablet appears to be its touch-screen capability, which does away with the need for a keyboard and a mouse. If you feel that the touch-screen capability trumps everything else – and that you don’t actually need a fixed keyboard that badly – then you probably need the tablet primarily for browsing online or reading digital publications, and not for office work. If you do fancy a tablet for office work – as a replacement for your desktop PC – then consider what’s called the

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TECHNOLOGY

The tablets are coming!

touch-screen laptop. Digital Trends provides a guide to the more popular models from Microsoft, Lenovo, HP, Dell, Asus, Samsung, Sony, and Acer.

Tablets for browsing/reading. Quite apart from

possible desktop computer replacement, tablets are finding a niche in an area that would not have been considered were it not for the commercialization of the Internet: browsing, which includes surfing Web sites and the consumption of digital content from providers from newspapers to book retailers. This application assumes minimal user input from a keyboard, and less of a need for storage than if the user were browsing in order to accumulate research for further processing. The primary examples, while not the only ones, are the NOOK tablet from book retailer Barnes & Noble and the Kindle e-reader from online retailer Amazon.

Tablets and smartphones. If one’s primary reason

for considering a tablet is casual Web browsing and reading digital content, e.g., a newspaper or a book, why not consider a smartphone, which, on top of mobility and some capability for user input, offers voice communication? According to an October report in PCMag, over 60% of users of either a tablet or smartphone use it to get news on their device. In August, Bloomberg Businessweek ran an analysis/ commentary by Kevin Tofel, “Here’s Why Tablets Will Replace the Smartphone,” that had originally been posted on GigaOm. In his analysis, Tofel says we will grow more and more dependent on mobile devices, and will get over the portability of a mobile phone and get used to the idea of carrying a tablet around, if not in one’s pocket. Besides that, he maintains that voice on a tablet “isn’t as bad [to set up] as you’d think,”

A $20 tablet could replace the PC In mid-November, Quartz reported on a 7-inch Aakash 2 tablet computer from India, made by U.K./ Canadian/Indian startup Datawind, and set to be sold to the Indian government for distribution to an initial 100,000 university students and professors at $20 apiece (with the other $20 of its cost being subsidized by the government). If all goes well, the government wants to buy a total of 5.86 million, as part of an ambitious plan to bring the Internet to the masses. At $40, the Aakash 2 is reportedly cheaper than tablets from China, which are said to cost at least $45. The report also discusses how it represents a dramatic improvement over its predecessor, the Aakash 1, which was said to be under-powered to the point of unusability. One point brought up in the piece is that production costs in India and China have come down so much that it is shipping, distribution, and customs duties that bring up the price of tablets shipped to the U.S. Another point involves how poorer countries could embrace cheap tablets faster than rich countries, if only because the problems that tablets could solve in poorer countries – connectivity and instant access to information, among others -- are likelier to be bigger problems in poorer countries. According to the report, Datawind’s problem is its lack of capacity to meet its orders, but if manufacturing can be done cheaply where the tablets are to be sold, then we could be looking at the commodification of tablets all over the world.

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and that as we use video chat more, the larger display will come in handy. He predicts tablets will begin to replace the smartphone when tablet sales approach those of smartphones, which he says will happen in five years. For its part, in February, mobile and general consumer electronics news site BGR reported that Transparency Market Research predicted tablet sales would reach 248.6 million units by 2015, while smartphone sales would hit 1 billion units.

Increasing demand for wireless mobility products. At the heart of it all is an ever-increasing

demand for what research firm New Venture Research calls “wireless mobility products.” In a November release announcing its “Wireless Mobility Assembly Markets – 2012 Edition,” the firm says that the growth in demand for these products “is expected to evolve special product configurations ranging from high-end ultrabooks all the way down to simple e-reader devices.” This increasing demand gives manufacturers a “powerful incentive to develop new technological innovations and product iterations on a regular basis,” which translates into flooding the market “with so much product choice that it is blurring the distinctions between device segments so that tablets are now competitive with notebooks and e-readers are competitive with smartphones.”

What to do, then, with so many choices among so many combinations of functions, aside from throwing one’s hands in the air, that is? One thing might be to prioritize the features that we want in our tablet or similar mobile device, recognizing that space, power, and processing constraints dictate that no one device will have all the features we seek (or if they claim they

Portable computers that could replace the desktop PC Tablets aren’t the only ones being considered for replacing the desktop personal computer. As reported in CNNMoney in March, computermicroprocessor giant Intel had unveiled plans for ultrabooks (ultra-thin laptops) to great fanfare in May 2011, and predicted that by 2012, ultrabooks would comprise 40% of consumer notebook sales. With more than 20 ultrabooks on the market as of the date of the report, all Intel had to show for its initiative was 2011 sales of fewer than 1 million, and just 2% of notebook sales during the holiday season just past. The news as of late 2012, while showing some improvement over 2011, is still not that encouraging. In October, CNET reported that IHS iSuppli, a major tech research firm, slashed its estimates for 2012 ultrabook shipments to 10.3 million units, from its original forecast of 22 million. That said, the firm still expects ultrabook shipments to reach 44 million units in 2013, and to hit 95 million by 2016. The main culprits were said to be “nebulous marketing and unappealing price” – i.e., ultrabooks

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The tablets are coming!

do, know that they won’t do all of them equally well). Another might be to recognize that with so many manufacturers offering so many products with so many variations, to aim to be first on the block to have a certain device has limited appeal when there are many overlapping alternatives from which to choose.

News & Strategy Alerts Technology

The Petraeus scandal: How governments can snoop on you The scandal that led CIA chief David Petraeus to fueled concerns over U.S. government access to private emails A steady rise in the number of state requests for user data was noted by Google’s Transparency Report

typically retailing at over $1,000, while being expected to come down to around $600, and the cautious economic outlook driving consumers to look at mobile devices in lieu of computer purchases. The hopes for better sales hinged on Windows 8 devices coming down to the $600-$700 range, and on a new microprocessor in mid-2013. Meanwhile, another alternative to the PC was recently announced, as search-engine giant Google brought out a $199 notebook PC manufactured by Acer, called the Chromebook because it runs Google’s Chrome operating system, as reported in Quartz in midNovember. The Chromebook has an Intel processor and a 320-gb hard disk for storage, but otherwise uses Google’s applications in the cloud. Acer’s Chromebook is not the first Chrome-centered device on the market, the report clarified, given that in October, Samsung released a Chromebook of its own, with a non-Intel microprocessor and only 16 GB of flash storage, which makes it more of a mobile device than Acer’s Chromebook, whose processor and hard disk give it stand-alone capability comparable to a personal computer. So why bother launching the Acer Chromebook when the Samsung Chromebook is more of a mobile computing device? The report’s theory: users might not be ready for a complete cloudcomputing experience, with both applications and storage beyond the user’s control.

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Retired Army General David Petraeus resigned as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) head after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) uncovered email exchanges pointing to an extramarital affair with his biographer, Paula Broadwell, according to a CNN report. What prompted the FBI investigation that uncovered the liaison were anonymous, harassing emails which Broadwell allegedly sent to Jill Kelley, a Petraeus family friend, as seen in the CNN timeline of the Petraeus probe. The investigation raised questions about Broadwell’s possible access to national security information and the U.S. government’s capability to access private emails. An article in the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) website sees the “FBI’s electronic surveillance and tracking of Petraeus and his mistress” as a key component of the story — and “an excellent lesson on the government’s surveillance powers” and a “reminder of the need to reform those powers.” Google’s Transparency Report — an effort by the Internet giant to maximize transparency on the flow of information related to their tools and services — found

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that state surveillance was on the rise. A graph from the official blog of Google shows a steady increase in government demands for user data since the Transparency Report was launched: from 12,539 in July-December 2009 to 20,938 inquiries from public entities around the world in January-June 2012. The FBI had accessed Broadwell’s email account which she used to communicate with Petraeus, leading to the discovery of the affair and the personalities involved. Though Broadwell used anonymous accounts, the authorities still traced these accounts to her using “metadata footprints left by the emails to determine the location that they were sent from,” according to the ACLU article.

“Webmail providers like Google, Yahoo and Microsoft retain login records (typically for more than a year) that reveal the particular IP addresses a consumer has logged in from,” the article notes. “Although these records reveal sensitive information, including geo-location data associated with the target, U.S. law currently permits law enforcement agencies to obtain these records with a mere subpoena — no judge required,” it continues. The high-profile nature of the case brings to the fore security concerns over email privacy. While access to online accounts or data may help deter dangerous elements, such as terrorist groups, privacy laws must be reassessed based on the increased access to personal information in the digital age.

A map from Google’s Transparency Report shows user data requests from governments around the world, January-June 2012

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