Commonwealth November 2007

Sylvia Earle on the Emptying of the Oceans PLUS: Floods, Dams, Privatized and Middle Eastern Politics Subtitle: textWater text text text text text text text Dr. Gloria Duffy Subtitle: on the Impact of a Good Mentor text text text text text text text text text text text text text

Commonwealth the the

THE MAGAZINE OF THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB OF CALIFORNIA THE MAGAZINE OF THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB OF CALIFORNIA

NOVEMBER 2007 MONTH 2007

WATER WORLD THE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS OF H20

commonwealthclub.org

O M C E H T

Contributions Make a

Difference.

As the holidays approach and the year comes to a close, we hope you will consider making a special year-end gift to support The Commonwealth Club of California.

Every gift adds to The Club’s ability to sustain our year-round programming. There are many ways to give to The Club, some of which we have listed below. Please consider making a gift today!

Give Online

You may make a gift to The Club using our online donation form, which can be found at commonwealthclub.org/ donate.

Give via fax, mail or telephone

Donations may be mailed to The Club’s Development Office, or made over the telephone or via fax using a credit card.

Please use the contact information listed below to make a donation in any of these convenient ways.

Gifts of Stock

Employee Contribution Programs and Matching Gifts

FO

The Club welcomes donations of securities, including stock and mutual funds. Appreciated stock donations may help you avoid capital gains taxes and can help reduce your income tax burden. To donate securities to The Club, please contact the Development Office.

Individual Retirement Account Gifts

This is an easy and convenient way for you to contribute in a meaningful way to The Commonwealth Club without tax complications. To make a gift from your retirement account, please contact your retirement account manager and The Club’s Development Office.

The new Pension Protection Act of 2006 allows tax-free distributions from traditional and Roth Individual Retirement Account assets to qualified charitable organizations. Up to December 31, 2007, a donor can transfer up to $100,000 per year to a qualified charity with no tax implications. To qualify, the donor must be at least 70.5 years old and the gift must be directly transferred to the charity.

Support The Club with contributions through a payroll deduction plan. Often contributions through an employee giving program are deducted before taxes. You may also give to The Club via the United Way. Simply list our name on the form they provide – no code is required. And many employers will match your charitable contributions, increasing your gift to The Club at no extra cost to you!

Consult with your Human Resources Department to see if you qualify for matching gift or employee contribution programs.

UND

9 1 ED

Planned Giving

Please consider including The Club in your estate planning to help us to provide a nonpartisan forum for the next 100 years. There are many ways to provide for The Club in the future, including bequests, charitable trusts and other vehicles. Please contact the Development Office for more information on The Club’s planned giving program.

For further information on any of the giving vehicles listed above, or to make a donation, please contact our Development Office using the information listed below. Thank you in advance for your generous support of The Club!

Development Office The Commonwealth Club of California 595 Market Street, 2nd Floor San Francisco, CA 94105 Phone (415) 597-6714 Fax (415) 597-6729

The Commonwealth Club of California Meet interesting people. Become one. commonwealthclub.org

CONTENTS VO LU M E 101, N O . 20

N OV E M B E R 20 07

8 The Deep Blue Killing Fields “Like the air, the sea is part of what some call the global commons. ... It only takes a few to misbehave to ruin things for everybody, and unfortunately ... that is what’s happening.” – Sylvia Earle Photo by William Adams

SPEECHES

DEPARTMENTS

EVENTS

14 Fresh Water in the 21st

3 Editor’s Note

31 Program Information 32 Eight Weeks Calendar

17 Pay at the Pump The privatization of public water

20 Could Katrina Happen Here?

4 The Commons

Events from November 1 to December 31, 2007

Talk of the Club, Q&A, Quotes Jimbo Wales: Can China Wikify?

A review of California’s risk

61 Board of Governors Ballot

25 Middle Eastern Water

63 Letters

Booker Holton on water politics

Press freedom, Adm. William Fallon

26 Water Power

64 InSight

Heather Cooley adds up the cost

43 Water in Perspective 44 Dams and Global Warming

Patrick McCully charts the impact

48 Out of Control Getting a grip on the federal budget

34 34 35 42

7 First Word

Programs by Region Language Classes Program Listings Late-breaking Events

About Our Cover: Detail from The Great Wave off Kanagawa, an 1832 woodcut print

by Katsushika Hokusai. Design by Amanda Leung.

DR. GLORIA C. DUFFY A Legacy of People

48

Photo by Amanda Leung

Gil Garcetti and Peter Gleick

The Last Orange Roughy

Photo by Amanda Leung

Century

58

54 What Denmark Knows Laura Tyson on economic security

58 Italian Love Affair Michael Tucker and Jill Eikenberry

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

1

Commonwealth Club Travel Commonwealth Club Travel WHITE WHITE Informed Travel for the MindMind Informed Travel forDiscerning the Discerning

VIE TNAM & CAMBODIA

Aboard the Mekong Pandaw • October 22–November 4, 2008

Journey to Southeast Asia to see the magnificent temples at Angkor; the lush landscapes and remote villages of the Mekong Delta; and the bustling urban centers of Phnom Penh and Ho Chi Minh City. On this special itinerary, delve into the heart of Vietnam and Cambodia, two countries whose histories are linked by the Mekong River. See centuries-old Buddhist temples and pagodas, scenic landscapes dotted with patchwork-patterned rice fields, and the architectural remnants of past dynasties. Spend two days exploring the classical French structures and open-air markets of Ho Chi Minh City, then embark upon a peaceful eight-day cruise on the Mekong Pandaw, a modern vessel outfitted in teak and brass and designed for the environs of the delta. Step off the beaten path to see traditional Khmer villages, floating markets, silk weaving centers, holy mountains and flower gardens. Learn about this region’s illustrious past, colonial legacy and recent economic growth. Conclude the journey with two days at Angkor, a UNESCO World Heritage site considered the crowning achievement of Khmer architecture. Members of the Emory University Alumni Association will join us on this program.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, OR TO BOOK YOUR TRIP, CALL (415) 597-6720 OR E-MAIL TRAVEL@COMMONWEALTHCLUB.ORG

EDITOR’S NOTE

the

Commonwealth EA

LTH CLUB

O

TH

L I F O R NI A

JOHN ZIPPERER Editorial Director

CA

E C O M MO

N

W

F

The Last Orange Roughy

FO

I

0 ED 19

3

EDITORIAL DIRECTOR John Zipperer

jzipperer@commonwealthclub.org

MANAGING EDITOR Amanda Leung

aleung@commonwealthclub.org

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Sonya Abrams

sabrams@commonwealthclub.org

Photo by Abri le Roux

n her moving speech in this issue about the state of the world’s oceans, oceanographer Sylvia Earle warns about the serious depletion of sea life. There are more people on the planet than ever before, so seafood is being consumed in ever-larger quantities.

We’re also using increasingly advanced technology to find and harvest fish, which allows us to capture greater amounts of seafood, Earle tells us, and to catch fish that used to be beyond our reach.

Such as the orange roughy. This fish, which dwells deep in the ocean and lives to be centuries old, has become a part of our seafood diet. In a jarring note, after editing Earle’s speech, I came home that evening and was served, yes, orange roughy for dinner. In our defense, we didn’t know the fish’s background when we bought it. But now we do. If you would like to avoid eating an endangered fish or one that has been in existence longer than the United States, follow Earle’s tip: Check out the seafood guide provided by the Monterey Bay Aquarium (and printed this issue on page 10, courtesy of the aquarium). That guide is now taped to the front of my refrigerator.

Earle was just one speaker in our month-long series of programs in August focused on water. The series, Cool, Clear Water, was entirely organized by The Commonwealth Club’s excellent volunteers in its Member-Led Forums. Led by MLF Chair Carol Fleming and Kerry Curtis, chair of the Environment & Natural Resources MLF, these volunteers put together speeches, panel discussions, dinners and even wildlife-restoration excursions, all focused on various aspects of water.

This issue we feature just a sampling of the 23 Cool, Clear Water programs. The series was generously underwritten by The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund, and was presented in association with the Pacific Institute.

This is the second year that The Club put on a month-long series devoted to one topic, and Fleming is already hard at work planning future MLF series. If you want to play a part in the creation of these exciting programs, contact Carol or one of the MLF leaders listed on page 31.

So enjoy this bumper-sized issue of The Commonwealth. There’s a great deal to learn about water, sea life and seafood, water wars, economics of water, and much more. But we’ve also got some non-water speeches in this issue, such as popular actors Jill Eikenberry and Michael Tucker talking about life in Italy, a panel on the nation’s budget mess, Laura Tyson on worker angst, Wikipedia’s Jimbo Wales, an update on Japan from Michael Zielenziger, and more.

That should make for a well-balanced diet of ideas and diversion for this month.

UND

EDITORIAL PRODUCTION ASSISTANT Andrew Warner EDITORIAL INTERNS David J. Fine, Fredye Harms and Elaine Walker OFFICERS of The Commonwealth Club of California Chair, Board of Governors Robert Saldich Vice Chair of the Board, Chair of Executive Committee Mary B. Cranston President and CEO Dr. Gloria C. Duffy Secretary William F. Adams Treasurer Anna W. M. Mok Vice President Gregory Dalton GOVERNORS of The Commonwealth Club of California Massey Bambara Karin Bauer Dr. Mary Bitterman Maryles Casto Jeff Clarke Angela M. Coffee Joseph I. Epstein Rolando Esteverena Steve Falk Jeff Farber Karen Francis Dr. Joseph R. Fink Dr. Carol Fleming Amy Gershoni Dr. Charles Geschke Richard N. Goldman Rose Guilbault Ken Hausman Hon. James C. Hormel Mary Huss Heather Kitchen Lata Krishnan Hon. L.W. Lane, Jr.

NOVEMBER 2007

Amy McCombs Don J. McGrath Marcela Medina Barbara Z. Otto Maria Pica Hon. Barbara Pivnicka Hon. Richard Pivnicka Father Stephen Privett Dan C. Quigley Skip Rhodes Connie Shapiro Dr. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall Charlotte M. Shultz James Strother Ray Taliaferro Tad Taube L. Jay Tenenbaum Nancy Thompson Chuck Travers Robert Walker Dr. Colleen Wilcox Kyung Yoon

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

3

THE COMMONS TALK

of the

CLUB U.S. Air Force photo/Airman 1st Class Alesia Goosic

Ahead of Her Time

W

major points. The first was that women would have to be admitted to the USAF Academy; the second was that women would have to be admitted to flight training. I didn’t get to state the third major point, because the four-star general, in a room with over 200 people attending the Personnel holiday party, shouted,‘Get rid of her!

I don’t want that study finished.’

“The following year women were

admitted to the Air Force Academy and subsequently women were admitted to flying training,” she said.

Rubin’s vindication did not end there. “Notwithstanding the general’s statement to get rid of me and to ‘ditch’ the study, the study was submitted,” she added. “All three major points were implemented, as well as others that were included in the study.”

Photo by John Zipperer

hen U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey spoke to The Club in late September, he talked about how to ensure that the country has an Army suited to its future needs. During a reception following the speech, he heard about another attempt to update the military’s outlook.

Retired Air Force Colonel Renee Rubin, who served in 1979 as the first female president of The Club, told him about her 1970s service at the Pentagon, where she worked on a study about how the Equal Rights Amendment, if ratified, would affect the U.S. Air Force. When the study was concluded, “the deputy chief of staff/personnel, HQ USAF, asked me what the study would say,” she told The Commonwealth. “There were three

Break Bread Together

U

A Lotta Swiss Army Knives

E

ver wonder what happens to all those Swiss Army knives seized by TSA from forgetful travelers at airport security? Check out the listings on eBay with titles like “30 Victorinox Swiss Army Classic Airport TSA Knife Lot.” Here are knives in red, black, blue, green and all sizes and multi-functions,

by Wenger and by Victorinox. One assumes seller “Salmon127” obtained these lots of knives through a TSA auction or some such.

So now you know where to go if you’d like to re-purchase your prized possession.

4

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

sually when The Club brings together people of diverse opinions, it involves panel discussions and audience Q&A. But panelists on a Universal Health Care panel took this idea more seriously.

John Kabateck, executive director of the National Federation of Independent Business, and Anthony Wright, executive director of Health Access California, disagreed about a lot of things in their September 26 panel, but they were intrigued and committed enough to a health-care solution that they followed up their Club meeting a couple weeks later with a lunch together to discuss their views and try to find some common ground.

NOVEMBER 2007

The Height of Fashion

F

ormer U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich has never been one to pass up a chance to poke fun at his famed 4-foot, 10.5-inch frame.

When he spoke at The Commonwealth Club September 18, the UC Berkeley professor of public policy drove to the event in a Mini. He later quipped that he told an onlooker that the car was “just my size.”

Reich is the author of 10 books, including I’ll Be Short: Essentials for a Decent Working Society.

Photo by Paula Bronstein

FAST FORWARD

Shutting out the Sun author Michael Zielenziger talks about Japan’s turbulent economic and political transition. Zielenziger updates us on Japan since his October 17, 2006, Club speech.

Q: How has Japan’s chronic economic weakness affected its ability to play a significant role in Asia?

A: Japan once thought it would clearly become the financial, technological and travel hub of Asia, and would be the “headquarters” nation that would coordinate Asia’s integrated economic challenge of the West. Japan thought of Asia as a series of “flying geese” with wealthy Japan in the lead.

A long period of stagnation, however, makes Japan more dependent on the needs and demands of others. The surging production of China and the rampant consumption of Americans have benefited Japan’s economy significantly, but Japan is now far less in control of its economic destiny than it once might have been. A Chinese slowdown, or a collapse of U.S. consumer spending, would make life very difficult for the Japanese manufacturing sector.

“Japanese once thought they could lead Asia,” a friend in the Japanese parliament confided recently. “But we’ve

blown so many chances, these days our only real hope is to just survive.”

Q: There has been talk about whether Japan will try to acquire nuclear weapons, in light of North Korea’s nuclear activity. What’s your view?

A: I don’t see Japan going nuclear. Japan is very happy to permit the United States to place its very capable nuclear umbrella over Japan, and U.S. defense forces maintain a very robust defensive deterrence against North Korean aggression....

Just as important, however, is the fact that a majority of Japanese do not see any need to develop nuclear weapons.

Elderly Japanese believe that the only “just” legacy of a mistaken war is that Japan never again promote militarism – and certainly not the development of nuclear weaponry.

Q: Japan recently got a new prime minister. What type of leadership do you expect him to provide?

A: Prime Minister Fukuda will be a temperate, stable and calming leader

for Japan, who will work steadily to improve relations with China and South Korea and step back from the assertive militarism advocated by his predecessor, Shinzo Abe. He is probably the best Japan could hope for at the moment.

That being said, Fukuda is no revolutionary and cannot be expected to fundamentally “change the game” in Japan. He will have to fend off militarists within his own party, and work more assiduously on tackling the nation’s manifest social and economic challenges. While a welcome change from Abe, we should not really expect him to promote the sort of vigorous reform agenda Japan requires to confidently face the 21st century.

Q: What do you think Japan’s position in the world – and its view of itself – will be in 25 years?

A: Japan will be significantly smaller in terms of population size and rank of its economic output. China will have surpassed both Japan and the U.S. in terms of total economic output, and Japanese will no longer think of themselves as one of the world’s great superpowers.

Instead, Japan will be a “middleranked” power, like France or Switzerland; still relatively well off and comfortable, but no longer the major economic force it is today. The surprise is that most Japanese will not be terribly unhappy with their diminished status. The nation will have reached an economic détente with China and will remain an American military ally. Japan will still produce important cultural trends and dine off the success of such cultural exports as sushi and manga comics. Japan’s biggest direct competitor will be the newly powerful Korean peninsula, after North and South reunify and whole areas of North Korea become export processing zones for the high-tech innovations streaming out of Seoul. Ω

NOVEMBER 2007

Interview by John Zipperer

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

5

QUOTE UNQUOTE

“

Energy security equals national security. America already founders but of Creole poets right after the emancipation, of Dr. depends entirely too much on imported oil – [for] 63 percent Martin Luther King Jr., and it’s still my dream today. Like addicts of its oil consumption. Much of it is from countries whose or alcoholics who have to break a denial in order to recover, for values do not often coincide with our own. We exacerbate that by us as a country to recover from this amnesia, we have to claim increasing our dependence on imported natural gas. Consensus this history. We have to acknowledge the theft of native land, the estimates show that the United States would be importing 25 to genocide, bringing people from Africa in chains, dragging them 30 percent of its natural gas needs within 20 years, and most of to this country. [We have to] struggle with whatever that means it from countries that are prone to political and social instability. for us today; begin to understand what it means to be reconciled For these reasons, I believe it is in our national interest and in with one another. We don’t know how to be reconciled within our security interest to maintain and expand nuclear energy for ourselves, within our community, within the entire country. this country for the generation of electricity.

And here we are, telling other countries and factions that they Frank Bowman, “Nuclear Energy: Why America have to be reconciled with one another.

Needs It Now,” September 13, 2007 China Galland, “The Secret History of Slaves,” July 31, 2007 This country has been founded and grown on a contradiction.

”

“

We were all taught, What is democracy about? It’s about liberty, equality and justice for all. This is the dream, not only of our

”

For audio of these Club events or others you may have missed, go to commonwealthclub.org/recentaudio

WHAT IS THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB? Established in February 1903, The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation’s premier public affairs forum. Membership is open to all. A nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, The Club hosts speeches, debates and discussions throughout the Bay Area for members and non-members on topics of regional, national and international interest, as part of its mission of informing the public. Speakers receive no honoraria.

Contributions Make a Difference Thank you very much for your support of The Commonwealth Club over the past year. As the end of the calendar year approaches, we hope that you will consider making a special tax-deductible donation to support The Commonwealth Club of California.

We are able to make Club programs, the Bay Area’s proudest export, available to the widest audience possible, thanks to generous donations from community supporters like you. We hope you will consider making a special tax-deductible gift to The Club today.

Every gift adds to The Club’s ability to continue to provide a nonpartisan public affairs forum for our community.

Please take a moment right now to make a donation to your Club, and help us shine the light on the truth in the coming year, and for years to come.

6

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

E C O M MO

TH

L I F O R NI A

Thank you for your support!

CA

For more information or to make a donation online, please go to commonwealthclub.org/donate or contact the Development office at (415) 597-6714.

F

N

There are many ways you can give to The Club. Please see the inside front cover in this issue of The Commonwealth to learn more about the different ways you can help The Club continue to LTH CLUB EA provide a vital public service to our community, next year and beyond.

O W

FO

UND

0 ED 19

3

FIRST WORD

Can China Wikify?

Address to The Club, July 18, 2007

JIMBO WALES

Founder, Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation and Wikia

W

e’re completely blocked in China. We don’t like that. The Chineselanguage Wikipedia is the 11th largest [Wiki community]; it’s growing perfectly fine. Lots of Chinese don’t live in China. It has really active participation from Taiwan, Hong Kong, the U.S. and around the world. And actually quite a bit of participation from China, because the firewall is fairly porous and so there are some really brave people who edit Wikipedia despite its being blocked. I was in Hong Kong in a special meeting with some of the Beijing Wikipedians. At this point we’d been blocked for six months, and I said, “I’m worried that you guys are going to go off into something else; it’s so frustrating for Wikipedia.” They said, “We are with you forever.” So these people are very dedicated; people within China are going to continue to edit Wikipedia and eventually [the government] will realize that it’s foolish to block Wikipedia.

I am going to China in September and I am trying to set up as high level a meeting as I can. The only way to exist in China is to agree to censor, and we are not going to do that, ever. So I am trying to reach out to as high a level as possible to explain to them that the Wikipedia neutrality policy is quite important; it’s not a haven for dissidents. The community polices things quite well so, at least in theory, we are not the sort of site that should be blocked. I have no idea if that argument’s going to be persuasive or not, but it’s the only one I have to make.

There are certain core policies that I set down from the beginning. The neutrality policy is non-negotiable. Could they choose for themselves to ban editors from Taiwan who don’t toe the Chinese government line? That isn’t going to happen.

It’s an academic question in the first place, because having met with the mainland Wikipedians, they say basically they have no interest in that; they have not asked us to compromise at all. In fact, they are taking great pride in [their work]. The mission for all of us is really about free access to the sum of all human knowledge for every single person on the planet. They mean it, and we mean it. Ω

Photo by Andrew Lih, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.5 License

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

7

8

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

THE DEEP BLUE

KILLING

FIELDS

The health of the oceans directly affects land-based life, and Earle warns that life in the seas has declined precipitously.

Excerpt from “A Celebration of Oceans,” August 1, 2007.

SYLVIA EARLE Oceanographer; Deep-Sea Diver; Time magazine “Hero of the Planet”

Photo by Tammy Peluso

B

eing a scientist and explorer, I have had as my backbone [the experience of one] who has been smitten with the oceans since I was a small child. But it has also led me to Washington, where for a while I was the chief scientist of NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] under the first Bush administration.

I continually ask the question, What is the world going to be like going forward, considering how fast it has changed – not entirely for the better – during my lifetime? And what can all of us do about it to make a difference? Do what my dad suggested that I should do, as a kid; I had a habit of taking things apart to see how they worked, which was fine except I didn’t know how to put them back together again.

He said, Before you destroy something, you should at least know how it works.

That has helped me in thinking about what we are doing to the planet. It’s all right to make a place for ourselves within the natural systems that sustain us, but we ought to know how it works before we start messing it up.

We have not done a very good job about doing that on the land, and now look at the ocean. We are so incredibly terrestrial in our thinking that it’s just hard to imagine that all those creatures that we’ve grown up with are terrestrial allies and buddies and friends – the trees, the mammals, the birds, the insects and some of the fish. But 97 percent of Earth water is ocean; 97 percent of the biosphere is ocean, too. It’s where the action is. [Water is] the single non-negotiable thing that life requires, and most of it is saltwater. It’s also the source of the freshwater. It goes up into the atmosphere and comes back as rain, sleet and snow. It’s the bank account, the aquatic bank account for all of us.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

9

I’d like to go take the plunge, take you out and see what it is like in the ocean. For me, it’s like diving into the history of life on earth, because in a bucket full of water, in a cup full of water, even a spoon full of water, you can see the great diversity of life, the larval stages of many of the creatures that grow up to be things like star fish that have little stages out there in the ocean and lots and lots of microbes.

It’s happening on our watch

W

for everybody, and unfortunately in our lifetime, the last half-century or so, that is what’s happening: a few are ruining this global asset, the global commons, for everybody for all time.

In the 1950s, it still was thought that the ocean was infinitely resilient, that we should be able to take out what we wanted and put in what we wanted with no worries, because it is so big and humankind so small in its capacity to change things. At that time, the United Nations Convention on [Fishing and Conservation of the] Living Resources of the [High] Seas, set forth a new conceptual basis. There were visionaries even then who could see that we were changing the way the ocean functions. But those ideas were not widely accepted and the ideas of sustained taking were then, as they are today, way over the top in terms of being optimistic with respect to how much we can take out of ancient ecosystems that have been developing for hundreds of millions of years.

In our time, the last few decades, new technologies [have been used that had] never before been applied to the sea, to find fish, to capture fish and other ocean wildlife and to transport it to distant parts of the planet.

It took until 1800 before there were a billion people on the planet. By 1980, there were 4 billion, and you know the

e are just beginning to understand how much we don’t know about the ocean. We should know much more, given that it drives the way the world works. Not just generating the freshwater that falls back on land and sea and recharges the bay here, the rivers and the groundwater, but the ocean is really at the cornerstone of climate and weather; it shapes planetary chemistry.

One of the problems is in our thinking, in our lack of understanding about the sea, or our complacency, [given] that we are by nature air breathers. We are terrestrial; we are naturally biased. It’s probably accounted for by just the fact that we aren’t out in the ocean as much as we are on the land. If we were, if we could see what’s there, see how the processes work, we might care more than we presently do.

We have tended to regard the air, the water, the wildlife of the planet as free; that’s how economists tend to calculate the balance sheet. They don’t generally think of the earth as the world bank the way I and some of my pals do. We have come to understand that the Think before you eat, Sylvia Earle told The Commonwealth loss of those things we take for granted – like Club audience. She suggested the following list as a handy guide uncontaminated water, uncontaminated air – to making sure you don’t contribute to the destruction of a species. does have a hefty price tag, and that the loss of the species that we are now seeing cascade Reprinted with permission of the Monterey Bay Aquarium. into oblivion has a price tag beyond imaginSalmon (wild-caught Alaska) Best choices: ing. We don’t know how to put creatures back Sardine, Pacific Abalone (farmed) together again once they are gone. I wish I Scallops, Bay (farmed) Barramundi (U.S. farmed) could see a Steller’s sea cow – they were only Shrimp, Pink (Oregon) Catfish (U.S. farmed) fairly recently members of the world comSpot Prawn (British Columbia) Caviar, Sturgeon (farmed) munity – [but they are] now gone. There was Striped Bass (farmed) Clams (farmed) a seal similar to a monk seal out in Hawaii, Striped Bass (wild-caught) Cod, Pacific but the last one was seen in 1952 – on my Sturgeon (farmed) (U.S. Pacific Ocean longline) watch when I was a kid. I never got to see one.

Tilapia (U.S. farmed) Crab, Dungeness We need to be mindful of how fast things are Trout, Rainbow (farmed) Crab, Imitation disappearing on our watch to see if there are Tuna, Albacore (U.S. caught from Alaska) things that can be done to reverse that trend, (British Columbia, U.S. troll/pole) Halibut, Pacific not just to slow it down.

Tuna, Skipjack (worldwide troll/pole) Lobster, Spiny Like the air, the sea is part of what some Tuna, Yellowfin (U.S. and Australia trap-caught) call the global commons. It’s a resource that (U.S. Atlantic Ocean troll/pole) Mussels (farmed) separates the peoples of the world, but it also White Seabass Oysters (farmed) joins them. Over the centuries, traditions Pollock (U.S. caught from Alaska) have grown, most notably something called Rockfish, Black Good alternatives: the freedom of the seas: you can go out into (California, Oregon, Washington) Basa/Tra (farmed imported) the ocean and do just about anything you Sablefish/Black Cod Cod, Pacific (trawl-caught) want to do. It’s a wonderful concept and it (Alaska and British Columbia) Crab, Imitation works, as long as everybody behaves. But it only takes a few to misbehave to ruin things

Seafood Guide

10

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

numbers today – 6.5 billion and climbing. The numbers are navigation systems that encourage fishermen to venture kind of slipping off a little bit, but certainly not stopping in further, safer, longer; new materials, durable plastics that can terms of increased numbers of us and a diminishing of our life be deployed in long lines often 40, 50, 60 miles with baited support system – the wildlife, that once sustained the human hooks every few feet that catch not just the targeted species. beings on this planet, easy pickings: birds, little furry things, There are drift nets that sweep through miles of ocean that fish that you could take out of the waters, off the land. in a single set can strain the sea and everything in their path, It somehow still hasn’t quite gotten into our brains that there including unintended things – so called by-catch – [such as] are really strong limits on what we can extract from the sea. whales, dolphins, birds, jellyfish and whatever else happens So, in the last half-century, we have seen [wildlife] numbers to be in the pathway. cascading downward. About 90 percent of the big fish that we About 10 years ago, it was said that there were some 50 love to consume are gone. Out in the sea, we have about 10 dead zones that had developed in coastal waters around the percent of things such as the sharks, the big tunas, “About 90 percent of the big fish that we love to consume are gone.” the swordfish, the cod, for heaven’s sake. For the nations of the North Atlantic for 500 world. Now it’s more than 150 so-called dead zones – places years, cod was the mainstay of the economy; today [they are] where, owing to land-based pollution, the coastal waters diminishing fast, protected now, but not protected enough to give rise to extensive blooms of microorganisms that are so see a reversal of that downhill slide. rich in their growth that they use up all the oxygen and the Sophisticated technologies developed during World War area becomes, as they say, anoxic. Not only is it bad for those II and the Cold War to detect and track submarines are now organisms but for all the others that share the space with them used to exploit life in the sea. There are acoustic means to as well. Basically, everything ultimately dies. detect every last tuna in a school, satellites to track water In the early 1990s, when I served as the chief scientist masses where certain species are known to concentrate; new of NOAA, I was shocked to discover that 90 percent of the Crab, King (Alaska) Crab, Snow and Tanner Halibut, California (hook-and-line or bottom trawl) Lingcod Lobster, American/Maine Mahi mahi/Dolphinfish (U.S.) Mahi mahi/Dolphinfish (imported troll/pole) Oysters (wild-caught) Pacific Flounder/Sole (U.S. and Canadian Pacific) Plaice, Alaska Rockfish (hook-and-line Alaska and British Columbia) Sablefish/Black Cod (California, Oregon, Washington) Salmon (wild-caught California, Oregon, Washington) Sanddab, Pacific Scallops, Sea (Northeast U.S. and Canada) Shrimp (U.S. farmed or wild) Spiny Dogfish (British Columbia) Spot Prawn (U.S.) Squid (worldwide) Sturgeon, White (wild-caught Oregon, Washington)

Swordfish (U.S. including Hawaii longline) Swordfish (California, Oregon drift gillnet) Tilapia (Central America, South America farmed) Tuna, Bigeye (troll/pole) Tuna, Canned Tuna, Yellowfin (worldwide troll/pole) Tuna, Yellowfin (U.S. Atlantic Ocean longline)

Avoid: Caviar, Sturgeon (imported) Chilean Seabass Cod, Atlantic Crab, King (Russia) Dogfish (worldwide, except B.C.) Grenadier (U.S. Pacific Ocean) Halibut, California (set gillnet) Lobster, Spiny (Caribbean imported) Mahi mahi/Dolphinfish (imported Longline) Monkfish Orange Roughy

Rockfish (trawl-caught) Salmon (farmed) Scallops, Sea (U.S. Mid-Atlantic) Sharks Shrimp (imported farmed or wild) Sturgeon (imported wild-caught) Swordfish (imported) Tilapia (China,Taiwan farmed) Tuna, Albacore (worldwide except Hawaii longline) Tuna, Bigeye (longline) Tuna, Bluefin Tuna, Yellowfin (longline)

For updated versions of the WatchGuide, go to mbayaq.org/cr/seafoodwatch.asp

Illustration by Andy Warner

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

11

Photo by Paul Eric Felder

What to do

T

“A fraction of 1 percent [of the ocean] enjoys the same ... protection that we accord to about 10 percent of the land as national parks.” blue fin tuna, in the North Atlantic at least, had been taken in the last 20 years. That has been reinforced not just with blue fin in the Atlantic but blue fin worldwide – less than 10 percent exists now. It’s across the board with species after species.

For example, orange roughy are fish that are transported from the other side of the planet, around New Zealand and Australia. They live in depths of about 2,000 feet of water.

So until recently we haven’t found them. Now we can find them; now we can catch them; now we can market them globally. Orange roughy, the fish that may be – when it is fully grown after about 30 years and can start to reproduce – as much as maybe 16 or 17 inches long; that’s a big orange roughy. They get a little bit bigger than that, but after all, they live to be 250 years old. So that little 20-minute bit of pleasure that you have with lemon slices and butter on your plate may have been around long before your great, great, great, great grandparents were born. We need to know those things and realize that eating orange roughy is not sustainable; that eating things like Chilean seabass is not sustainable. It takes about 30 years for them to mature as well. They don’t live quite as long as orange roughy, but most of them aren’t living very long at all these days because we are finding them and catching them and taking them to market.

We should care if orange roughy disappears. [We should care] if [we lose] sharks that once were so abundant; they have been around for 300 million years and they, like these other big fish, have declined precipitously just in the last few decades owing to our increased appetite for eating the macho meal – you know, shark or shark fin soup. The new Asian markets with new wealth, new appetites, [are putting] new pressures on these ancient creatures.

12

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

here are things that we can do that can make a difference.

The outcome of a discussion that President Bush and I had over dinner, coupled with 10 years of hard work by a lot of people who’d invested in trying to do something positive for the ocean, resulted in the declaration of the 140,000 square miles of ocean out in the northwest Hawaiian Islands for full protection. It took a lot of doing by a lot of people, but there was a pivotal moment over dinner when some things crystallized. As President Bush left the room, he called back to Jim Connaughton, the head of the Council on Environmental Quality, “Jim, make it happen: no take for the northwest Hawaiian Islands.” So we got this chunk of ocean.

Here in California, we are seeing a move toward similar positive things, to have places that are fully protected. We already have a network of marine protected areas, marine sanctuaries, not fully protected for the fish but nonetheless, the ethic is growing to take care of these places that matter for the health of the ocean and to our big world bank account.

This idea of having marine protected areas surfaced at a conference in Mexico called “Defying Oceans’ End.” It surfaced as well in the Pew Oceans Commission. It surfaced as well with the national Ocean Commission. This is an idea that’s got legs – or flippers, if you will. I hope it grows, because a fraction of 1 percent [of the ocean] enjoys the same kind of protection that we afford to about 10 percent of the land as national parks – in spite of that great new addition in the northwest of Hawaiian Islands, in spite of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority that recently declared 33 percent of it safe for fish, up from 6 percent from previous years. Globally now about 4,000 places have been designated for protection.

There are other sorts of pillars of thought, about what we can do. One is fisheries reform. It doesn’t mean stop eating fish, but it does mean be smart about what we catch, be smart about what we eat. We should, as consumers, drive what appears on our plates – not just be content to sit by and let these 200 to 250 year-old fish go by into oblivion because they taste good.

Investment in global science needs to be amped up. When I was chief scientist at NOAA, I was so sad because of the little sliver of investment going into research as compared to our mighty neighbor over there, NASA, which had billions when we had little millions – I wouldn’t take a penny away from NASA, by the way. I think that’s one of the best expenditures we’ve ever made as human beings: to look skyward and to use our technologies to develop, to the best of our ability, ways to see ourselves in the context of what’s out beyond our own solar system. I just want equal time for the ocean, equal commitment to this part of the solar system.

We need to have better policies. It starts both at the top but it begins with a groundswell of support from the likes of those in this room – and with kids, who think they have no power because they are just kids; but everybody has power. I am here to tell you as a grandmother, kids have a lot of power.

All arrows are now pointing in one direction: Take precautions now to protect what we can’t put back together again.

There are not enough of us saying, We’ve got to do this. Our

policy makers will respond if they are pushed, if they are asked, if they are voted in or out of office. That’s part of our job to see that those who represent us are really representing what we care about.

In 1972, this nation enacted the National Marine Sanctuaries Act. That now embraces 18,000 square miles – recently increased by the 140,000 square miles – of a national monument that is partly administrated as a national sanctuary.

These are signs of hope. We have begun down the track of caring; these are good intentions. If we do our job, we will see a change through such actions in the next five decades.

Q&A

Q: When you headed up NOAA, what was it like working for the first Bush administration?

Earle: In 1990, you might remember, was the Gulf War. Right after the war came to a close, the fires were still burning. We were invited by Kuwait to take a look at the oil fields. I spent a fair amount of time during that era looking at the Gulf and the effects of oil spills, the effects of humans on the land and sea. That first trip that I took was with 100 U.S. businessmen and congressmen to evaluate what was going on with those burning wells. Here are these crusty CEOs and leaders of industry saying as we walked through these burning fields, Well, first you got to be able to breathe the air – we were all having a hard time breathing the air. Then the questions, Where are people going to live? Is the water okay to drink? The emir of Bahrain said, My mother loves to eat fish. Are the fish safe to eat? So the questions about restoration: it was air, water, fish, place to live. What’s the future going to be like?

To restore the economy you had to restore the environment first. There’s so many that have this notion that it’s environment here and economy over there, as if they’re somehow at loggerheads forever. Not true! One is totally linked to the other. You’ve got to have people with a place to live, with a future, a sound economy in order to have a sound environment, and vice versa. You can’t have a sound economy without a sound environment. That’s what I’ve been provoked into doing ever since: try to build bridges between those who regard themselves as one camp or the other. We’re all on the same planet after all.

Q: Let’s say that the next U.S. president invests you with all the power of the government to do the most important things to improve the quality of the oceans. What would you suggest to that president?

Earle: We should take a leadership role, and in many ways we have over the years. We were the first to have national parks. We were the first, about the same time as Australia and Canada in the mid-1970s, to think about protected areas in the sea. Other nations have sped ahead of us in

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe years ago said, “It’s simply not enough to understand, but to act.” So with knowing comes caring, and with caring there is hope that we will find an enduring place for ourselves within the natural systems that sustain us, that keep us alive. As never again, perhaps, we have a chance to get it right. Ω This program was made possible by the generous support of The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

certain regards and we’re so far behind. We even have not yet ratified the Law of the Seas Treaty, for heaven’s sake.

That would be one of my first moves. That puts us in the world community in a way; it gives us a voice that we don’t now have. There’s a move afoot to try to get the United States to be a signatory to the Arctic treaty. We should, if we are to have an enduring place at the table and help make the decisions about the future of this country as well as the rest of the world. I would certainly look at what we’re taking out of the oceans as a key thing. It’s not just what we’re taking out, it’s how we’re taking out the wildlife from the sea. We’re taking much too much. We’re taking some of the wrong things that should never be touched.

Q: Is there guidance for our audience about what fish they can eat and what fish they cannot?

Earle: My list is very short. I have come to feel that it’s time for me personally at least to give fish a break. The health of the ocean now is at risk, and therefore we are at risk.

The best chance we have of getting things right is to let the natural systems take over and we can help in some ways.

We can help by planting sea grasses. We can help by not putting the noxious things in the oceans that are currently going there. We can also help by taking the pressure off of some of the creatures that are in serious trouble.

One of the great reasons for our success [as humans] is we’re versatile. We can eat all sorts of things. For five years we stopped eating striped bass in the East Coast of the United States. In just five years, a miraculous transformation took place: they recovered, not to what they were, but better than they had been. We have the power to show some restraint. We can make other choices in a restaurant, at the dinner table, the markets, whatever. It doesn’t mean, stop fishing. But it does mean, be smart about what about you take.

Look at the Monterey [Bay Aquarium Seafood Watch] Guide as a starting place (see page 10). But don’t stop there. Find out how old the fishes are that you eat. Where are they from? Thailand? Brazil? The Bay? Wherever it is, think about what they’ve been eating. Think about how long they’ve been living. Think about what they’ve been accumulating that you don’t want accumulated in you. Ω

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

13

FRESH WATER CENTURY

Photo by Steve Betts

IN THE 21

ST

There’s not a shortage of water in this world, argue these experts. But there is a shortage of cool, clear water, and a shortage of political will and muscle to change things. Excerpt from “Fresh Water in the 21st Century,” August 2, 2007.

GIL GARCETTI Photographer; Co-author, Water Is Key: A Better Future for Africa

PETER GLEICK C o-founder and President, Pacific Institute; Co-author, Water Is Key: A Better Future for Africa; BBC’s “Visionary on the Environment” Garcetti: In January 2001, I was on my first trip to West Africa – I was invited by the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation.

I went not knowing what quite to expect. We were in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ghana. It [was] a life-changing experience. Perhaps the most meaningful thing I learned was the fact that over 70 percent of the people in these nations do not have safe water.

14

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

What are the consequences of not having safe water? Some of them are obvious: real and continuous health problems [such as] high infant mortality simply because of the water ingested by babies, diarrhea, blindness – you can go on and on with this – all from water.

Some of the consequences are not so obvious. Women and girls are the ones that have to go and fetch water every day, seven days a week, so girls don’t go to school. When girls don’t go to school, everyone suffers. The economics of unsafe water [and] poor communities and agricultural output is not great. It [West Africa] is generally a depressed area.

I took these photographs on that first trip. I wasn’t sure I was going to use them. But they were moving photographs and they were often joyful. They were haunting but they

The failure to meet basic human needs for water leads to water-related diseases. We are on the verge of completely eliminating Guinea worm – it would be the second disease eliminated by humans. We’re very close. Then there’s cholera, diarrheal diseases, dysentery and so on.

There are 100 million people drinking water with too much arsenic, mostly in Bangladesh and India. Just as bad – and this is partly what I mean by inexcusable – we know they’ve been doing it for decades, and we have failed to eliminate the arsenic from that water. There are many other examples.

There’s an environmental dimension to this crisis. The most threatened and endangered species on the planet are suffering because we humans take [water from] the aquatic ecosystems on the planet – fisheries, river deltas, wetlands.

It’s estimated that 30 to 40 percent of all freshwater fish and amphibians in North America are considered endangered or threatened, primarily because of the water we withdraw for our own activities.

We don’t have very good data for the rest of the world, but we know that in a lot of places around the world, rivers don’t reach the sea anymore. By the time they would reach their deltas, the

Gleick: Depending on whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, the opportunities or the challenges around water are enormous. There are many old problems we have to deal with that we’ve not successfully solved, and at the same time there are a series of new problems we are going to have to deal with in the coming decades.

We have local water scarcity. We have local water contamination. There is a whole series of water-related diseases, from contamination of water from diarrheal diseases to malaria to “Seventy percent of people in [West Africa] Guinea worm to schistosomiado not have safe water.” – Garcetti sis. There’s the effect of global climate change on water availability and water quality. There are issues associated with the rivers have dried up. It’s true production of food – without water we cannot produce the of the Yellow River in China; food that’s required to meet the world’s growing population. it’s true of the Colorado River, There’s ecosystem destruction and degradation. Associated shared by seven states and with all of these things, there are the political, social and Mexico, here in the westeconomic ramifications of finding and using what is ulti- ern part of North America. mately a scarce resource, and probably the most important The Sacramento-San Joaquin resource we have.

Delta here, upstream of the Anybody who tells you that all the news is bad or that we’re San Francisco Bay, is being decimated by human withdrawals only in a crisis is wrong. We’ve made enormous progress at of water from the Sacramento and the San Joaquin rivers. solving many of these problems and … there is good news Water quality is decreasing in different ways and in difassociated with water issues. But the old way of thinking about ferent places, from biological pollution and from industrial water is inadequate. Water is not just a resource; it’s not just pollution – often in mixes we don’t expect, often with consea factor of production for goods; it’s not just an input. Water quences we don’t fully understand. I don’t know how many is special: water has religious connotations; it has cultural of you remember watching on television 30 years ago the and social connotations; it has deep security and economic Cuyahoga River (that flows through Cleveland) burning. implications. For all of those reasons, the issue of water is a It was dramatic. It wasn’t the first time the Cuyahoga River complicated one. had caught fire, but I think it was the last. It led to the Clean To solve our water problems, we’re going to need some Water Act in 1972 and enormous efforts to clean up water new tools – technological, economic, institutional and edu- pollution in the United States. We moved forward. cational tools.

Fifteen years ago, Milwaukee was hit by a terrible outbreak First, why do I believe there’s a water crisis? There are lots of cryptosporidium, a parasite found in water. There were of pieces to this: there’s a human dimension, an environmental 400,000 illnesses [and] 100 deaths. Now our water standards dimension and a political dimension. address cryptosporidium and we have filtration standards for To me, the human dimension is the worst; it’s the most municipal water supplies. Ten years ago we discovered that the inexcusable. Maybe you’ve heard some of the numbers. Using MTBE [methyl tertiary-butyl ether] we put in our gasoline United Nations definitions, there are a billion people who to clean it up turned out to be a terrible water pollutant. And don’t have access to safe drinking water. There are 2.5 billion we had to deal with that. people – 40 percent of the world’s population – who don’t A few years ago, we discovered a whole series of traces of have access to adequate sanitation services. human medicines and antibiotics and endocrine disrupters NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

15

Photo by Beth Byrne

were filled with beauty and (surprisingly) also with hope and optimism. It was eight months later, after 9/11, that I realized I had to try and communicate this and a call to action to the industrialized world.

Helping bring safe water to the people of West Africa is the right thing to do; it’s the moral thing to do. But, as you know, I have a political background too, and I saw an important and legitimate political reason why each of us should be involved. We must be seen throughout the world as caring about other people in this world, especially when it happens to be Muslims in West Africa (Islam is the predominant religion in West Africa).

Photo by Beth Byrne

in our water, and we’re now trying to figure out how to deal with that. We discovered perchlorate, a rocket fuel, in our groundwater in California and elsewhere. It’ll be something else next year. Unfortunately, our ability to monitor and measure and regulate the quality of groundwater always seems to lag behind our ability to pollute it.

In probably the most disturbing example of our ability to disrupt the environment, we are altering the very climate that surrounds us. The evidence is clear and compelling that climate change is real, and impacts on water resources are

drinking, sanitation. But if you want to build automobiles or grow cotton in the desert, we have problems.

We’re a rich world. We’re rich in money but we’re also rich in education and ingenuity, and we’re rich in goodwill. Those things, like water, aren’t always very evenly distributed, and it’s the maldistribution of water – and sometimes the poor distribution of money and education and goodwill – that poses challenges. That provides us – those of us with a lot of money and goodwill and commitment and education and ingenuity – with a special responsibility to do what we can to address some of these “There’s no problem on the planet that isn’t made issues. We’re intelligent. We decoded worse by a rapidly growing population.” – Gleick the human genome; we manipulate subamong the most disturbing stances at the subatomic level; we’ve eliminated some diseases aspects of climate change. As permanently. Ironically, we’ve built very smart machines that the Earth warms up, we’ll see are rolling around this very instant on Mars looking for water. changes in precipitation pat- Hopefully we won’t find a lot of it, because then we’ll want terns; we’ll see loss of snow- to build a pipeline. pack in the Sierra Nevada, The biggest water problem is the failure to meet human with very significant impacts needs for water supply. It’s an incredibly solvable problem. on the way we manage the Sometimes it’s drilling a groundwater well; sometimes it’s expensive system we’ve built to deal with the fact that we get education about hygiene; sometimes it’s cleaning a surfaceall of our water in the winter months, mostly as snow. water supply that’s already being used, with low-cost technolWe’ve been faced with a pretty well-financed, well-orches- ogy. Not a lot of money is required here. We can meet basic trated political campaign to hide the source of climate change human needs for 100 percent of the world’s population for that reaches all the way, I would argue, from the oil fields water quickly and inexpensively. directly into the White House. It’s time that the real climate We have to challenge the assumption that agricultural debate began, and that [means asking], What do we do about water rights and use can’t be discussed; 80 percent of the those impacts we are not going to be able to avoid, and how water we use goes to agriculture. We can probably produce can we avoid the impacts that we don’t want to experience? more food in California with a lot less water.

There’s a political dimension to the water crisis. For thouWe have to stop pretending that groundwater and surfacesands of years, water has been a source of conflict and ten- water are different things. They’re connected, but we don’t sions: a target during war, a tool of violence, a political issue. monitor and measure and manage groundwater in California We have perennial battles between Northern California and or in China or in India the way it needs to be monitored and Southern California, between the coasts and the mountain measured and managed. communities here, between farms and the cities. Water and We have to expand our definition of water supply. Water politics make a volatile mix. supply is not just another dam or another groundwater well; Why do I believe the water crisis is getting worse and not water supply is really smart, conjunctive use and managebetter in places? First of all, the population is growing, and ment of surface-water and groundwater together. Water it’s growing fastest in places where water problems seem to be supply means looking at recycled water that we’ve spent a lot most severe. And there’s no problem on the planet that isn’t of money collecting and treating – and often dump in the made worse by a rapidly growing population as opposed to ocean. That’s an asset, not a liability; that’s a source of water a slowly growing population. supply, not something to be thrown away.

But there’s lots of good news. Let me describe a path to a Finally, we have to look pretty aggressively at the way we use sustainable water future and offer some solutions. water. The truth is, we don’t want to use water except for basic First of all, the water crisis is not the result of a lack of water human needs – for drinking, for survival. We want goods and or resources. Or a lack of money. Or a lack of brains. This is services; we want to grow food; we want to get rid of our wastes; the water planet. If we didn’t live on the dry part, we’d prob- we want to make semiconductors; we want telecommunicaably call it Water rather than Earth. Absolute water scarcity tions. A lot of those things require water, but I would argue that is not a problem. There is not a place on the planet, I would almost all of those things can be done with less water. Ω argue, where there’s not enough safe freshwater to meet basic human needs for water, because basic human needs for water This program was made possible by the generous are relatively small – 20 liters a day, 40 liters a day, 50 liters a support of The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and day, depending on how you define it, for cooking, cleaning, The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

16

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Photo by Filipe Varela

PAY

AT THE

PUMP

Fresh water is evolving from a shared public trust into a private asset. Kaufman and Snitow discuss what this means for the environment, the economy and the poor – who can’t afford expensive, designer bottled water. Excerpt from “The Privatization of Water,” August 13, 2007.

DEBORAH KAUFMAN F ilmmaker; Co-author, Thirst: Fighting the Corporate Theft of Our Water ALAN SNITOW F ilmmaker; Co-author,

Thirst: Fighting the Corporate Theft of Our Water

Kaufman: About 150 years ago, water in the U.S. was privately owned. Norris Huntley has written about the chaos in the late 19th century when entrepreneurs made promises to deliver clean water. But those dream deals became nightmares of pollution, leaking pipes and escalating threats of fire. There are incredible stories about Aaron Burr’s Manhattan Company – which later became the Chase Manhattan Bank – which was one of the most corrupt, incompetent and disastrous experiments in privatization on record. People couldn’t get water (or if they could, it was fetid), fire hydrants failed, and, finally, a devastating cholera epidemic broke out, followed by the great fire of New York, which destroyed most of the city’s downtown and commercial center.

This, and privatization efforts in other cities, was part of the background for the push toward public water in the U.S. As populations grew, citizens demanded more modern public water systems [paid for] by bonds, operated by engineers and accountable to local governments. So by the mid-20th century, our water systems ranked among the best in the world, serving 85 percent of Americans, as they do today.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

17

the French multinational Suez – through its U.S. subsidiary, United Water – was under attack. Cost overruns, ruptured pipes, brown water alerts and finally what they called fecal fountains brought the whole thing down in 2003.

In Felton, California, RWE – the German Enron – had bought the water system and created rate shock by raising fees by 74 percent in one fell swoop. The money that might have been available for reinvestment in the local system was now being sent as corporate profits to the pockets of executives and shareholders in Europe. In “The new water wars are increasingly between western Massachusetts, we were hearing about one-bidder confaceless mega-corporations ... and passionate tracts – so much for competition – and an astonishing pattern of citizens groups ... over control of the most revolving doors between local precious resource on the planet.” – Kaufman politicians and corporate executive suites. Closest to home for with the global climate crisis, it’s us, in Stockton, California, there were people asserting that going to mean increasing floods skyrocketing rates and performance problems were only the and drought accelerating water tip of the iceberg; that our democratic system and any hope for a sustainable future were being undermined by intentional scarcity.

Scarcity of an essential resource translates into potential violation of environmental laws, corporate campaign contrifor profit. This has all created an opening for corporations to butions and a total lack of transparency. come in making the same promises that entrepreneurs made in the 19th century, with talk of efficiency and economies of Snitow: The [Bush administration’s] squandering of a budget scale and flexibility that could come with private investment surplus and the refusal to raise taxes, even for basic public purfunding. It fits very neatly into a world view, shared by most poses, is intended to starve the beast of government and force Americans, which favors the free market over public works. governments to privatize their services from prisons to energy, The water wars of the 21st century are not the old battles water to schools, highways to bridges. There is underway in between countries over the fate of the river. The new water the U.S. a fire sale of these public assets. For many Republican wars are increasingly between faceless mega-corporations on politicians, the agenda has become a fundamentalist belief the one hand and passionate citizens groups on the other that trumps older conservative commitments – local control, hand over control of the most precious resource on the planet. support for small business and nationalism – in favor of conGiant Fortune 100 companies are teaming up with billionaire trol of our own resources. However, Democratic politicians investors and private equity firms to take control of a limited as well have been buying into this agenda. resource that no one can live without, creating an angry visThe result of this consensus has been failure to invest in ceral response erupting from the grass roots. infrastructure by both political parties. When it comes to waThe private water world of the future is a far cry from ter, the access to clean, affordable water is and should be conAaron Burr and the colorful scoundrels of the past. We are sidered a human right. Water itself has to be part of the public talking about people who are seriously thinking outside the trust. Our infrastructure shortfall and the gap between what box and mean it when they say they want to go to scale. We we have and what we will need to invest as a nation, when it are talking about companies that want to drag polar ice caps comes to water, is estimated at $300 to $500 billion over the to the Middle East. They want to suck water from the Great next 20 years. That figure refers only to water treatment and Lakes and ship it in super tankers to China, and they want to pipes for drinking water, sewage treatment and wastewater ring Australia with nuclear power desalination plans that will plants and the cleaning of stream water runoff. It doesn’t sell water to the highest bidder. It’s kind of a science fiction even include the environmental restoration projects that have future: a dystopic vision of unregulated resource extraction been discussed or the dams and peripheral canal projects that and environmental destruction, where water is no longer a are now being debated by Governor Schwarzenegger and human right but just another commodity to be traded for Democratic leaders in Sacramento. The total infrastructure profit – and if only the rich can afford it, so be it. shortfall in the United States water [system] is estimated by Before its collapse, Enron was a giant in the water busi- the Urban Land Institute at $1.7 trillion, which sounds like ness with its international subsidiary, Aserics, doing business a lot, but in an economy the size of the United States it’s in Argentina. We had read about Bechtel’s disastrous water actually not an impossible commitment. What is lacking, privatization in Bolivia, but we started to hear about new however, is the political will to do so. water wars much closer to home. Like in Atlanta, the biggest Here are a couple examples in which corporate water comwater privatization in the United States at its time, where panies use every one of their massive financial, legal, lobbying

Photo by Beth Byrne

For several generations, Americans have treated water as a public trust. You can turn on the faucet anywhere in this huge country and get clean water, 24/7. But in recent years, a convergence of problems has led to startling challenges and changes. An ideology favoring the idea of small government has resulted in the failure to invest in infrastructure and has meant that our water works aren’t just aging, they are failing.

Pollution, the demands of population growth and chronic mismanagement have also contributed to the problem. Now

18

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

and campaign finance resources to take command and win the They hired independent consultants that differed with the day against poorly financed volunteer citizens groups. They city’s consultants on the estimated price savings. The citididn’t always succeed in spite of this mismatch, but sometimes zens organized to take the issue to the voters, but literally they did. Water companies put in the kind of money that has right before the citywide election that was supposed to take never been seen before in local political campaigns to finance place, the mayor scheduled a City Council vote. That vote, and to influence the outcome of an election or an opinion a four-to-three decision, resulted in a 20 year, $600 million poll. In a number of cities, the companies created grassroot contract with global consortium OMI-Thames, which was front groups – called astroturf groups – to get their message the largest water privatization in the West. Huge. The city out without it seeming that the message was coming from a was very divided, but there was a nagging little problem: profit-making enterprise.

The contract exempted the private companies from doIn Michigan, the son of the key anti-bottled water orga- ing an environmental impact report, and according to the nizer was threatened with a slap suit, a suit aimed at shutting Concerned Citizen’s Coalition of Stockton, the Sierra Club up opposition when the campaign against Nestle got heated. In Atlanta, the former mayor – now “The more the wealthy opt out of drinking tap water, in jail – was charged with returning favors to a private water company in return for an all- the less political support there will be for investing and expenses-paid trip to Paris with his mistress. He maintaining America’s public water supply.” – Snitow was acquitted on that charge, but the company was thrown out of Atlanta anyway. In California, we are seeing what some activists are now calling “regulatory and the League of Women Voters, who all banded together, capture,” in which companies yield enormous influence over that was illegal. They began a challenge in the courts.

Nonetheless, in 2003 the privatization began, and here their supposed regulators. Recently here, a water company and water association pushed legislation, deemed to be technical- is what happened between 2003 and now. Rates that had only, which would have extended the maximum length of been stable increased, and a stink wafted over the south side water and other infrastructure contracts from 35 years to of town, because chemicals that cost too much weren’t be99 years. It also got rid of requirements that such contracts ing used. There was a sewage spill into the river that people require environmental impact statements. This kind of stealth swam in during the summer. There was a major fish kill. And legislation passed the state Assembly unanimously as a mere generally there was something called “run to fail,” which was technical bill until the Sierra Club, Food and Water Watch the private company’s failure to do preventive maintenance and other groups noticed it and fought to have it changed necessary to keep the pipes from leaking, so there were a lot or defeated. That legislation, AB1261, is still being battled of increased leakages reported. On top of it all, there was the court case based on the failure to undertake the environmental out in Sacramento. impact report. The citizens groups won in the court, but the Kaufman: The recent battle over water in Stockton, return to public control was stalled by continuous appeals.

Then last July, after intense negotiations, the city voted California, was raising all these issues that have just been mentioned and answering them in some pretty decisive ways. unanimously to cancel the private contract that they had Like in other cities, there was a visceral bipartisan response to worked so hard to create. Apparently after all these problems, a perceived takeover of a public asset that had been built and enough was enough. Even Gary Podesto, now out of office as mayor, agreed with the cancellation of the contract. paid for by the people of Stockton over many years.

In fact, their water utility was award-winning and in the black, and it served the people of the Delta very well. People Snitow: We need billions of dollars to upgrade universal afwere very shocked when Mayor Gary Podesto decided that it fordable water service for everyone. But will taxpayers and rate might be a good idea to consider privatization of the utility. payers support the relatively inexpensive effort to strengthen It turned out he had been part of a team within the United public water services when they are spending much more States Conference of Mayors called the Urban Water Council, for water bottles? A New York Times editorial from August which had been lobbied heavily by the private water industry 1, titled “In Praise of Tap Water,” put it concisely: The more to promote the privatization of urban water utilities. As a the wealthy opt out of drinking tap water, the less political businessman, he was inclined toward free-market solutions to support there will be for investing and maintaining America’s budget problems that he might have within the city that were public water supply. Access to cheap, clean water is basic to unrelated to water. He succinctly summarized his point of the nation’s health, and the editorial concludes that consumers view by saying, “It’s time that Stockton enter the 21st century are realizing that they can save money and save the planet by and think of our citizens as customers.” turning in their water bottles and turning on the tap. Ω The mayor wanted to streamline government and get his award-winning municipal utility off the books, and he be- This program was made possible by the generous lieved that rushing it into privatization was the way to go. The support of The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and citizens feared private company collusion with government. The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

19

U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class NyxoLyno Cangemi

COULD KATRINA HAPPEN HERE? The Golden State carries up to 25 percent of the flood risk in the United States, according to one speaker. The human-made disaster of New Orleans’ flooding has made California focus on its own vulnerabilities. Excerpt from “Keeping Katrina out of California,” August 16, 2007.

Seed: California’s in bigger trouble than people realize. Our state, as best as we can estimate, has about a quarter of the nation’s flood risk – more than Louisiana and the next several states combined.

New Orleans’ [flooding] was one of the two great engineering failures of all time, rivaled only by Chernobyl.

A little over 1,500 people died, more than 260,000 continue to be displaced, and losses were on the order of about $150 to $200 billion. Those numbers don’t begin to really get at the catastrophe itself. Members of our investigation team

20

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

had been to major earthquakes and even the great tsunami and seen tens of thousands – and in some cases hundreds of thousands of people – killed all at once. But we’d never seen such pervasive devastation on such a scale: hundreds and hundreds of consecutive city blocks were all flooded, and each of the homes and buildings represented some family that lost everything they had, everything they’d worked for all their lives. The scope of personal loss is simply staggering.

There have been three major national investigations: one by the Corps, one by the state of Louisiana and one by our

team. We think at this point that DAVE BRENT M anager of Engineering the nation, and that is getting to be we have a pretty good handle on Services, City of Sacramento a fairly horrendous responsibility. each and every one of the roughly Existing infrastructure and inspec53 major failures that occurred, and LES HARDER Deputy Director for Public tions review: How good is that we think that we have engineering Safety and Business Operations, California levee that you live behind today? explanations for those. We learned a Department of Water Resources How good was it reported last lot of things at a very technical level. year? Initiatives, policy, legislation: rogram Director of What have we learned? What do we But those turn out not to have been PETER D. RABBON P the important lessons. Over and over National Flood Risks Programs, U.S. Army have to change? How do we move again the Corps of Engineers and Corps of Engineers forward? Then the concept of floodthe outsourced engineering firms RAYMOND SEED Professor of Civil and management projects, pre-flood wanted to do the right thing, and programs. You can’t break this up they tried and lobbied and fought to Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley into a single activity. You don’t just do the right thing, and they were de- RON STORK Senior Policy Advocate, Friends prepare yourself to make sure your feated in the interest of cost savings. of the River system works. What if it doesn’t Our investigation team estimates work? Do you have redundancies? that the overall savings were on the order of about $100 to Are you really prepared for a failure? It’s a circular process. $150 million over the 51 years of the construction of the New What happens after the failure? What happens if you survive Orleans system. Losses for savings of $100 million were $200 the flood and there is not a failure? What do you do for the billion, well over a thousand times more than we ever saved. next one? We’re trying to make this as comprehensive as posAnd that lesson’s been brought home to California, which, sible. We are partnering with FEMA to make sure that we’re as a result, is now taking a national lead with regard to flood assessing the levees, that we have some responsibility. protection and flood safety.

This is not just a one-party or one-organization issue; this We have systems in east Texas, Florida and Southern is a shared issue among many shared partners. The question California that all warrant much closer inspection and much is, How do we get to this shared future? closer reviews. [But] California is moving forward. We are addressing first and foremost the [San Joaquin] Delta and, Harder: It’s really important to drive home that California has in fact, delta programs were underway prior to New Orleans a flood crisis. It is significant, it is major, it’s pervasive and it’s being flooded. We’re also now addressing Central Valley risk because we’ve had decades of neglect. We’re not going to get at seven other additional heavily urbanized areas with a total out of this crisis tomorrow or in the next decade. This will be population of nearly 2 million people. continuing with us, because our population is growing and But it’s just the tip of the iceberg. California has to also look we’re putting them in the flood plain. forward to the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys, where [What is] the magnitude of the problem for California? we expect to see additional millions of people moving in We’ve done an inventory of the levees – there’s about 14,000 the next few decades. [We need to look at] the coastal “California has a flood crisis. It is significant, it is major, it’s pervasive areas from Mendocino and it’s because we’ve had decades of neglect.” – Harder right down through Santa Barbara and, of course, the Los Angeles River Basin, the San Gregorio River Basin and the miles of them. These range from the very large flood-control Santa Anna River Basin, three of the most heavily urbanized structures that the Corps of Engineers [and] the federal governportions of the nation with massive riverine systems prone ment constructed – there’s about 2,000 miles of those – to levees to massive flash flooding. California is properly muscling up that are owned and operated by local agencies, levees that were and [is] leading the nation with regard to programs and the built by developers, levees that were built by farmers. All sorts beginnings of state funding to address all of these issues. I of sizes, shapes and quality. None of the quality is real good. couldn’t be prouder.

Most of the federal levees are actually here in the Central Valley, where there’s 1,600 miles of federal levees. At their core, [these Rabbon: One of the things the Corps has done to start mov- levees] are just dried-out lumps of mud. This is the technology ing forward is set up the National Flood Risk Management that’s protecting the capital of the sixth-largest economy.

Program. This was started before Katrina. Our goal is, in a By comparison, New Orleans’ levees are pretty new. A lot collaborative, comprehensive fashion, [to] manage flood risk of the flood walls that failed were completed only 15 years and try to reduce the damages. ago, using modern engineering standards to design [and] We’ve broken it up into [a number of ] focus areas. If build them. Nobody’s taken a really good look at the system anybody’s heard anything about having your levee certified we have in California and particularly in the Central Valley for FEMA purposes, we are working in that arena. Inventory until now. The American Society of Civil Engineers has rated and assessments: We are trying to identify all the levees in infrastructure across the nation. In California they looked NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

21

at all sorts of things, like transportation and wastewater and ports and so on. In California, we got an overall grade of “C-” last year, which is, I guess, OK. The only failing grade was in levees and flood control. We had reminders of just how bad the system is about a year and a half ago. We had a small flood event in January; it flooded areas of Napa.

The irony of all this is that a few years ago the state was found to be liable for failures of the state’s federal floodcontrol system because we had accepted the project from the federal government. California accepted the project, agreed to have it maintained to federal standards, and indemnified the federal government against future liability. If you’re another agency outside the Central Valley, and you’re the one who sponsored the federal flood-control project like, say, Napa, or in Orange Country, you are liable there, because you’re the sponsors: [you] accepted the project from the federal government. Citizens of Napa or Orange County are liable for their own flood-control project. They’re also liable for the Central Valley – they pay twice.

It’s important to reinforce the idea of flood risk. Flood risk is the probability of getting flooded times the consequences of getting flooded. We generally are thinking about flood risk [in terms of ] reducing the chance of getting flooded, so we make the levees better. If we go from a 50-year level of protection to a 100-year level of protection, we’ve cut the chance in half – we’ve reduced the chance, the probability.

That’s a good thing; that reduces flood risk.

But things don’t happen in isolation. If at the same time we convert the area from rural to urban, or add more to an urban area and increase the consequences of flooding, even though we have made better protection, our overall risk goes up. One of our challenges will be managing both of these things: As we put more and more people in the flood plain, just to maintain the same level of risk, we have to increase our level of protection by the same amount.

The delta is California’s water supply. Most of you know where that is – it’s just east of us here. It’s at the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers before it drains into the bay. There’s a lot of critical infrastructure in the delta; there’s three state highways, a major railway goes through it, there’s gas lines and pipelines and electrical transmission lines.

By far the most important is the water export. The state of California exports water out of the north part of the delta to portions of Vallejo and Napa. Contra Costa County gets its water from exports out of the western delta. The East Bay Utility District conveys water in the Mokelumne Aqueduct across the delta and three pipelines. The Central Valley Project, the federal project, exports water out of the south part of the delta to the agricultural areas, for the most part, in the Central Valley. The state of California exports water out of its South Bay aqueduct out of the delta to Silicon Valley, parts of San José, Livermore. Also, the state of California and the state water project export water out of the delta to the Central Valley, the south central coast, Southern California – actually, through water exchanges, it is able to supply water all the way to San Diego. This water provides at least part of

22

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

the drinking water for two-thirds of California’s people. It directly supports $400 billion of the state’s economy. Water interruption of these exports is a huge deal.

The kind of thing that could [disrupt] that is an earthquake.

A delta earthquake would flood maybe 20 to 30 islands and lead to saltwater intrusion into the delta; if water gets too salty, you stop exporting water, maybe for years. It would be a disaster to the nation’s economy.

Some of the things that are going on: There are all sorts of things being proposed in the state legislature regulating land use in flood plains, regulating cost-sharing, local plans of flood protection, maintenance areas, liability and insurance.

The state of California is trying to address the flood crisis by developing the Flood Safe California Program.

Finally, to fund much of this effort, at the state level there’s $5 billion available from the bonds that California’s voters passed last November, propositions 1E and 84. Well, this is where it could be allocated. Three-and-a-quarter billion dollars can be allocated to the project levees in the Central Valley and to the [San Joaquin] Delta. About $700 million

Q&A

Q: Not everybody understands what the “100-year” reference means. Another aspect to that is, Does that take into account any earthquake risk or other sources of risk other than the flooding or the storm itself?

Seed: The 100-year or 200-year level of risk is a statistical assessment of how reliable the levees are expected to be.

If you have a 200-year levee, you’d expect to get flooded once roughly every 200 years. Doesn’t mean you couldn’t be flooded twice on two consecutive years, but the odds are very strongly against that. Roughly once every 200 years you would be flooded.

One of the problems that we have is that the levels of risk are stated level of risk; they’re not necessarily in most cases the assessed level of risk, which is the result of a significant engineering investigation and study. That was the problem in New Orleans. New Orleans was thought to have a 250-year level system, but in hindsight it was more like a 50- to 70-year level system. It would have been flooded every 50 to 70 years because of the fragilities and the oversights and cost savings that went into the construction of it. California is now very rigorously assessing seven urbanized regions in the Central Valley, and in the process we’re establishing new protocols, procedures and probably new standards for doing that kind of stuff. The hope is to bring the assessed level of risk up to the actual level of risk.

The other half of the answer is no. In most cases seismic risk is not yet included. It’s a federal policy issue. There isn’t seismic risk across most of the central U.S., where the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys have kind of dominated policy. As a result, though there are actually

can be allocated to federal flood-control projects outside the Central Valley, such as Napa or Ventura or Orange County.

Then, $935 million can be allocated to statewide projects anywhere in California, such as for mapping studies, floodplain improvements, stormwater improvements and so on.

Brent: Our wake-up call came long before Katrina in Sacramento. In fact, the recent wake-up call was 1986, but flooding has been a historical issue in Sacramento. In 1986, the Sacramento Area Flood Control Association [SAFCA] was formed, and basically since that time, the mantra in Sacramento is, “Our levees are our first and last line of defense.” We probably have the most studied flood plain in the country. SAFCA has spent the last 18 years studying our flood plain, studying our levees. We knew about underseepage in levees before it was cool, and we’ve completed about up to $350 million in levee improvements since 1990. We have another billion dollars in levee improvements on the books.

The standards keep changing. Again, that’s a good thing.

We think levees ought to be considered infrastructure, not federal guidelines for making seismic levee assessments, they haven’t much been implemented. It has not traditionally been the case that earthquake risk has been included. It is beginning to be so.

Q: [Imagine] a really big earthquake that does substantial damage to the levees, followed by a big flood event that might not be once in a 100 years but maybe a once-every-20-years kind of flood. How much of California would be destroyed? Would that bankrupt the state? In other words, how big of a perfect storm would that be?

Seed: My sense is we’d have two levels of catastrophic damage. The first, a major earthquake like that would tank the [San Joaquin] Delta. We would lose water supply from the delta for a period of at least two years, and in some scenarios as many as five or six. The economic ramifications for that are without precedent. We can’t put 23 million Californians into the biggest Texas stadium; it’s just simply more than we could deal with. We would be doing massive damage to our state’s economy and to the national economy.

The second half of that is there’d be widespread flooding throughout populated, low-lying basins like Sacramento and Stockton and West Sacramento, and smaller heritage towns within the delta itself and the areas around the edges of the delta. The damage would be catastrophic in terms of dollars.

Most unfortunate would be the risk to loss of life. In New Orleans – it’s not widely recognized exactly how loss of life works – loss of life was very small. They had a weather forecast and an evacuation and so they got most people out. Then they had two levels of rescue going on: there was the federal rescue, but there was also, essentially, the Navy, much like Dunkirk. Everybody in New Orleans either owns a boat or

mounds of dirt, but for many people in Sacramento they’ve grown up with these big mounds of dirt. They’re really the most critical piece of infrastructure we have, not only in Sacramento but the Central Valley.

Post-Katrina, [there are] ongoing policy discussions, statewide, locally, nationwide, about what’s an acceptable risk.

The state is talking about upping the standards to 200-year.

Again, Sacramento’s also had the goal of 200-year [standards].

How do we fix that problem? It’s money, it’s working with local communities and the state; and now you find more and more flood-control projects being funded locally with state money than with federal. Even though there are still federal projects and federal levees, the state and locals are stepping in and actually fixing the problems with local money.

What’s the process for changing standards and policies?

The standards change. Do you wake up the next day [and establish] building moratoriums and flood insurance requirements, or do you give them time to adjust to those standards?

What do we do in Sacramento to prepare for flooding? A lot of things. We’ve always had meetings. After Katrina, their buddy has one. So the people of New Orleans went back and got their neighbors. Over 72,000 people were taken out of flooded neighborhoods in the four or five days that followed. We haven’t got that many boats in California. We have some significant risks that we’re not yet facing up to in some of the deep basins. That’s what I think scares me most: the potential for loss of life in the state where we don’t even think about that stuff yet.

Q: For the people who live in risk areas, what is the level of their awareness of the risk and how would you characterize their preparedness? Is it 10 percent? Is it 20 percent? How’s that going?

Brent: It’s gone up since Katrina. I think in Sacramento, especially in areas like the Pocket Area and what we call River Park where the levee is a prevalent feature – you can see it, most people know it’s there – there’s a high level of awareness, and certainly no denial. I lived in the Pocket Area too. You move into the Pocket Area, you’re told to buy flood insurance, all these things, and the city was very aggressive about public outreach and whatnot.

I think in a lot of parts of the city though – you know, 99 percent of the time that river is your friend; it’s a jewel to see. You know, the American River. It’s an amenity; they don’t often think of it as a threat. There’s still going to be some denial, but certainly … the city and the Sacramento Area Flood Control Association and the state being right there, nobody is out there hiding this from the public. I think the opportunity is there for the public. Our mayor, she is a flood-control advocate, always has been. She knows more about flood control than most of us and is out there campaigning for money. I think Sacramento probably is pretty aware of their flood-control situation. Ω

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

23

thousands of people [showed] MARK YOUR CALENDAR for Chris Matthews, host of up. Unfortunately, Katrina had “Hardball” (Nov. 15) at The some benefit for us, as far as Club in Silicon Valley. public awareness and public outreach. We do not deny that we live behind levees. We don’t tell people, Hey, you’re OK. We tell people, You’re behind a levee, you make the decisions. We recommend you always have flood insurance.

We recommend that you prepare for flood preparedness, that you’re ready to go, you’re listening. We have an emergency operations center that opens fairly routinely, even when the rivers aren’t that high, just in case we need to start preparing for evacuations.

develop all of the time in these communities that have not been mapped into the regulatory flood plain.

Flood-water management agencies, which are often locally run – counties and cities or joint ventures between various types of political sub-divisions in California – routinely take the position that they’re not responsible for anything other than mowing the lawns on the levees – the vegetation on the levees – and that whatever happens behind their levees is really none of their business. We’ve seen that it really is part of their business and the business of people in California when large communities are built in very dangerous areas.

Why isn’t anybody doing anything about this? There’ve been all kinds of programs, a blue-ribbon task force coming up with recommendations. But fundamentally there are Stork: The basic principle of flood-plain management is, winners and losers in the system, and the winners have more Floods may be acts of God or nature, but flood damages influence with city councils and boards of supervisors and and flood deaths are acts of man. It’s things that we do in other important people in the society than the losers do. constructing our cities – where we put them and how we California is in a pickle, because a lot of our problems build them – that are a big part of our problem. stem from this federal flood-plain management program, and In this country, the flood-plain management programs California is trying to figure out if [it] can devise its own, really in the modern era are a federal-local thing. They because the federal program doesn’t work. FEMA certainly is are part of the national flood insurance program and local trying to step up and map 1-percent annual-risk flood plains, and if they do that, that will be helpful. But there will be a lot of very, very dangerous flood plains in “Floods may be acts of God or nature, but flood California that have a risk of greater than 1 percent damages and flood deaths are acts of man.” – Stork annual flooding in the future, and FEMA’s program currently doesn’t deal with those issues at all. communities that choose to participate in that program are I’m not sure they ever will. California doesn’t seem to supposed to build their new construction [to survive] the have much of a voice in Washington about these reform expected 1-percent annual risk [of a] flood. efforts. Clearly, what’s needed in either a California floodThe question that I and many people have is, Is FEMA plain management program or a national one is to begin really doing a heck of a job? It’s pretty striking that they’re to appropriately characterize our flood plains with precise not. New Orleans was not in a mapped federal flood plain; depths, their nature and vulnerabilities, and find some reguthere were no federal or local flood-plain management latory programs to manage these complex flood plains. We programs. That circumstance is pretty similar in some of don’t do that now. FEMA just has “one size fits all,” and that the most disaster-prone areas in California. There are major isn’t working. It didn’t work for New Orleans, and it doesn’t problems with the characterization of flood plains, the way work for California. We need to care about people. It’s not FEMA administers them. In effect, FEMA and the flood just about damages; it’s also about loss of life. It’s one thing insurance program keep the maps and the characterizations to have insurance for your house that just got flooded 25 up to date. There are communities that have flooded several feet deep; it’s another thing to notice that Sacramento or times in the last decades – deep, disastrous floods – where other folks don’t have municipal navies to rescue you from FEMA has never mapped the area in flood plains. That’s a the top of your roof, which is likely to be deep underneath problem. that flood water.

Another major problem with the program is that they I think it’s really critical that we begin to listen to our only map the [areas that have] 1 percent annual risk of flood. experts. It’s also important to recognize that nature bats last, If you have a 101-year protection, there are no flood-plain that when we choose to develop a deep and dangerous flood management programs that are required in this country. plain without any recognition that that’s where we’re going, What that means is that communities all over the country we may be just setting up a huge disaster. and all over California take advantage of the weaknesses in It is important for the flood-plain management and floodthe National Flood Insurance Program. If they have 101-year control programs to reflect the environmental values of the state protection, in essence, they tell their citizens that they have a and of the country. We can do a lot of things to make our lives safe community, that they can build on the ground without safer and at the same time enhance our environment. Ω having to worry about flooding. The communities generally work to make sure that flood depths are not mapped and that This program was made possible by the generous traditional flood-plain management programs don’t apply to support of The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and their communities; they work pretty hard to avoid that. We The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

24

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Photo by Robert Nudel

MIDDLE EASTERN WATER

Water is just one of the flashpoints for conflict in the Middle East. Can Israel and the Palestinians use it to anchor peace? Excerpt from “Water and Israel,” August 28, 2007.

BOOKER HOLTON E cologist; Principal, TOVA Applied Science and Technology

T

he Middle East is important, because it’s life and death in terms of water resources and peace or conflict. When I think about the Middle East, I am going to blame my third grade teacher, Mrs. O’Bryan, [who made me] memorize Coleridge’s “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner”: “Water, water everywhere, and all the boards did shrink / Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink.” That’s what I think about the Middle East. We have the Sea of Galilee, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Dead Sea. The only one that gives fresh water that can sustain life is the Sea of Galilee.

Most of the rainwater falls in the West Bank, and because of various peace agreements ... Israel is allocated about 75 to 80 percent of the water that falls on the West Bank. They take that water from downstream areas. But most of the recharge happens in the Palestinian territory, and that’s a point of contention.

The other point to keep in mind is that the Coastal Aquifer, which goes all the way down through Gaza Strip into Egypt ... is currently unusable. [For] the whole [area of ] Gaza, we are talking about 10 to 15 more years of actual potable water coming from wells in Gaza.

Now think about another point of contention, water resources; only 25 percent of Israel’s water comes from the Sea of Galilee, and the rest of it comes from these aquifers. There is a scant amount that comes from desalination, wastewater reclamation and other things. So because of the scarcity of water resources in this area, [conflict] in the Middle East, rather than being [about the] politics of oil, is actually a politics of water.

We have some threats to this water supply. When we talk about that, first keep in mind that Israel, through these peace agreements, is currently supplying the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and Jordan with water – about 50 million cubic meters a year of water. That was a price of peace. Former King Hussein of Jordan said the only thing that would ever get him to fight against Israel would be water.

By the year 2020, the Israeli population will reach about 7 to 8 million people, and the total Palestinian population is

projected to be between 6 and 7 million. So by 2020, we are seeing the population of the Palestinian Authority [PA] in Gaza and the West Bank roughly equal to the Israeli population.

In 1967, the Syrians attempted to divert water from the Hasbani River – which is north of the Sea of Galilee – and bypass the Jordan River, going down into an area south of the Sea of Galilee. This is one of the causes of the Six Day War. In the year 2002, Lebanon tried to do the same thing – you know, always picking on the Hasbani River. Lebanon tried to dam up this Hasbani River and deprive Israel and eventually the Palestinian Authority in future peace agreements with about 10 percent of the total freshwater capacity.

This was averted, but we were very close to another battle back in 2002.

Even today, Syria and Jordan are still sabre-rattling. [At] the Yarmouk River, south of the Sea of Galilee, Syria has built a dam and they are supposed to allocate water to the Jordanians, something on an order of 700,000 cubic meters a year under agreements between Syria and Jordan. Syria is punishing Jordan for the peace agreement that [Jordan] made with [Israel]. They are denying the Jordanians almost 99 percent of that water. The region is ripe for conflicts.

What are my hopes? My hopes are founded on the fact that since 2001, you had a joint call by the Palestinians and Israelis to say, Let’s keep water out of the conflict, let’s keep water out of future battles and wars, and let’s agree to co-operate.

This is an unusual co-operation right now. This is the type of thing that you don’t really hear about. But right now there are engineers constantly going into the West Bank and assisting the Palestinian Authority in repairing broken and sabotaged water pipelines. In Tel Aviv in October, there is an exposition that will bring people from the region to learn about technology for irrigation systems. There is groundwater management going on right now in joint efforts between the PA and the Israelis. I think, because the PA now has an infusion of money, that probably these kinds of cooperations will take off and [be] a symbol of peace, for co-existence in the area. Ω NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

25

Photo by Sparky

WATER POWER

Water is a huge consumer of power – in cleaning and transportion, for example. Better use of currently available technology could save a lot of clean water, a lot of energy and a ton of money. Excerpt from “The Nexus of Water, Energy and Climate,” August 15, 2007.

HEATHER COOLEY R esearch Associate, Pacific Institute’s Water and Sustainability Program

U

pon hearing the terms water and energy, most people immediately think of hydropower. Though hydroelectric generation certainly uses water, the connections between water and energy are much more complex than most people realize. Water and energy are linked in very important ways. We use water to produce all forms of energy. We use water to mine uranium and coal. We also use a tremendous amount of water to absorb the heat that is produced as the by-product of hydroelectric generation. In 2000,

26

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

nearly 40 percent of all freshwater withdrawals in the United States were for cooling thermoelectric plants. We also use water to produce solar panels and to clean wind turbines.

Energy production also pollutes water. Discharging cooling water increases the temperature of the receiving water and can pose stresses for aquatic organisms. In addition, mine tailings often are high in heavy metals and are often highly acidic; inadequate disposal continues to pollute streams throughout the West. But in addition, most

energy production contributes to climate change. This will Mexico’s total electricity use in 2004. So this is an extremely have a tremendous impact on both water availability and energy-consuming project. management. As temperatures warm in California, we will We’ve also constructed a water system funded with local see our snowpack decrease. More precipitation will fall as money, including the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, supplying rainfall and much of our snowpack will melt earlier, so we water to San Francisco and communities throughout the will likely see large and broad-scale changes in how we need bay. This system takes water from the Tuolumne River and to manage water. transports it across the Central Valley. We have also built Despite these many connections, water and energy issues Mokelumne Aqueduct, providing water for the East Bay, are rarely considered together, at both the personal and the and the Los Angeles Aqueduct, which diverts water from policy level. Water management uses a substantial amount of the Owens River and the Mono Basin and moves it down energy, particularly in California. However, concerns about to Los Angeles. water scarcity, population growth and climate change are In total, we have built a very vast network to move water. really forcing us to rethink how we manage water and the Though some of these systems – like the Central Valley Project relationship between these very important resources. or Hetch Hetchy – rely on gravity and actually produce some California has developed an extensive infrastructure network energy, the majority – including the State Water Project and to transport water where and when it is available to where and the Colorado River – are net energy consumers. when it is needed. Annual precipitation in California ranges Communities rely on imported water, groundwater, small from 2 to 160 inches per year. Much of that precipitation amounts of recycled water and desalination. But the energy is centered around “19 percent of electricity use, 33 percent of non-electricity natural gas use the north and the S i e r r a Ne v a d a mountains; howev- and 88 million gallons of diesel consumption is water-related in California.” er, our population is really based in Southern California and along the coast. In intensity of these water supply sources varies tremendously. addition, the vast majority of the precipitation falls during the In San Diego, for example, the State Water Project uses about winter, and its demand is generally higher during the fall and 10,000 kilowatt-hours per million gallons. The Colorado summer. To make things even more interesting, California’s River Aqueduct is a little bit better, but both use substantial climate is subject to periodic droughts or extended droughts amounts of energy. In comparison, the energy intensity of apunctuated by periodic floods. local groundwater is about 1,700 kilowatt-hours per million In response, the federal, state and local governments have gallons of water, and recycled water is even less than that. invested a substantial amount of money to move water around But capturing and conveying water is not the only way California. We have a number of federal projects, one being we use energy throughout the water cycle. Every step along the Central Valley Project. The Central Valley Project was the way – from capturing and conveying to treating and built beginning in about 1937 and consists of 20 dams and distributing our wastewater – uses energy. The end-user then reservoirs throughout the state. It consists of numerous power uses energy to heat, cool, purify and pump water. We use plants and 500 miles of major canals. This system transports energy to heat water for our showers or to clean our dishes. In water from the Trinity, the Sacramento, the American, the some cases we use energy to purify water for various industrial Stanislaus and the San Joaquin rivers to communities in the processes, and we use energy to pump water into high-rise Central Valley and urban areas around the Bay. buildings or into hospitals. After we use water, water that is California is also home to large state projects. The State used indoors must then be transported to a wastewater treatWater Project transports an estimated 4 million acre-feet per ment plant, where it undergoes additional processing, all of year. The water is taken out of the delta at Tracy; some of that which requires energy. After being processed at a wastewater water is delivered to communities in the San Francisco Bay. treatment plant, some of that water is further processed and Much of it, though, continues south through the Central put back into the distribution system, but the vast majority Valley. Another branch goes off delivering some water to of it is returned to the environment, either through gravity the Central Coast, but the vast majority of it is lifted nearly or through pumping.

2,000 feet up and over the Tehachapi Mountains at the southern part of the San Joaquin Basin. This is the single Balancing water and power n this entire process, the California Energy Commission largest lift of [water] in the world. This water then cascades estimates that 19 percent of California’s electricity use, 33 down the Tehachapi. Some of that energy is recovered and the water is then delivered to communities throughout percent of its non-electricity natural gas use and 88 million the Los Angeles area. The State Water Project is the largest gallons of diesel consumption are water-related in California. consumer of electricity in the state, accounting for 2 to 3 To put these numbers in less abstract terms, think of the percent of all electricity consumed in California. In total, following: Many people often leave the faucet running as the State Water Project consumes 5 billion kilowatt-hours they are brushing their teeth, flossing, shaving, doing any of electricity per year, equivalent to about a quarter of New number of things. But leaving the faucet running for five

I

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

27

Photo by Meldayus

minutes uses an equivalent amount of 1975, yet the population increased by energy as operating a 60-watt light bulb 60 percent and the gross state product for 14 hours. This is substantially more increased two and a half times. Part of energy than most people realize, and that change is due to changes in our it varies throughout parts of the state. economy. We stopped producing as So in Southern California, the energy many things and we have kind of morassociated with that is even higher, phed into this service sector; typically whereas in other parts of the state – such the service sector uses less water than as Northern California – it tends to be the manufacturing sector. But much of a little bit lower. this is due to water conservation and In total, California’s water-related efficiency improvements. energy is about 78 billion kilowattNational efficiency standards for hours per year. This is equivalent to the appliances that use water have been a annual electricity use of Colorado and key element in reducing total water use.

Nevada combined. An overwhelming Many agencies throughout California 83 percent of that energy is the result are finding that they’re able to meet the of customer end-use. needs of their population and in some Concerns about water scarcity, popucases maintain – but in many cases lation growth and where that growth is decrease – their total water use. Back in occurring, and climate change are really 1980, six-gallon-per-flush toilets were forcing us to rethink the relationship common throughout California. Tobetween water and energy. Recent legday, the newer toilets use 1.6 gallons per islation will encourage this even further. flush. Showerheads, back in the early In September 2006, Governor Arnold ’80s and even ’90s, were using five to Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill seven gallons per minute. Today, they’re 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act. required to be two and a half gallons per Under that law, California committed minute. There are many new technoloto reduce its greenhouse gas emissions gies to decrease use further. In coming to 2000 levels by the year 2010, to 1990 “Total water use in California years, these will become more common, levels by the year 2020 and (finally) to and therefore we have the opportunity in 2000 was actually less than it to reduce our use even further.

80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050.

Despite these improvements, was in 1975, yet the population The water sector will undoubtedly California’s current water use remains meet these targets in a variety of ways. increased by 60 percent.” wasteful. The Pacific Institute undertook They will optimize the efficiency of the a study in 2003 called “Waste Not, existing system by installing newer pumps. They will also in- Want Not: The Potential for Urban Water Conservation in crease renewable energy generation, for example, by installing California,” and we looked at what current use was and how biogas recovery at wastewater treatment plants, or putting in much water we could be using if everyone in California was solar panels along the property that they manage. Many water using a 1.6-gallon-per-flush toilet and a low-flow shower head, districts not only own right-of-way where the distribution if people were using some of the newer technologies to water system lies, but also own land within the watershed in order to their lawns, some of the technologies that deliver water based protect it. So installing solar panels or other forms of renew- on turf water requirements – or grass water requirements – able [energy production], such as wind turbines, will boost rather than simply flooding their lawns. We also looked at the the amount of renewable energy generation. Water agencies potential for reducing use in the commercial and industrial will also develop less energy-intensive local sources. sector. What we found was pretty amazing: We could reduce About a third of California’s urban water use in 2000 went water use by 33 percent by installing many of these existing for residential indoor use – that’s water to flush our toilets and technologies. Significant savings are available in every sector – wash clothes and dishes. About 20 percent of our water goes from the residential to the commercial and industrial. to outdoor purposes – on our lawns, to wash our cars. About In a recent study, the California Energy Commission took 35 percent goes for commercial and industrial purposes – to the “Waste Not, Want Not” results and quantified the enproduce clothes, manufacture computer chips, produce ice ergy savings associated with those improvements. The Energy at restaurants. All these various processes use a tremendous Commission found that these water-use efficiency programs amount of water. could reduce energy use by 6.5 billion kilowatt-hours at a cost Over the past 30 years, Californians have really made of $826 million. It then compared this to how much energy significant water use efficiency improvements. Total water could be saved by some of the existing traditional energy efuse in California in 2000 was actually less than it was in ficiency programs. They found that these traditional energy

28

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Photo by Ben Heys

efficiency programs could reduce energy be capped and then reduced over time? use by about 6.8 billion kilowatt-hours That’s maybe something we need to at a cost of $1.5 billion. When you look think about. I know part of the concern at the costs per kilowatt-hour for the is that by going around the delta, in energy efficiency programs, it’s about essence we abandon the delta and stop 22 cents per kilowatt-hour, whereas the being concerned about the levees or water-use efficiency programs could the millions of other problems that are produce those savings at much less cost. going on there. That’s a real concern.

The Energy Commission concluded that We need to keep the delta on our water-use efficiency programs could agenda, even if we decide to build deliver 95 percent of the savings as something that goes around it. But traditional energy efficiency programs again, I think that the devils are in the at 55 percent of the costs. So a state or details. We really need to find out what water utility, or even an energy utility, kind of peripheral canal we’re talking will get much more bang for the buck about, and what it’s going to mean for by investing in water-use efficiency the delta. Regardless, we need to reduce programs than investing in traditional the amount of water we’re taking out energy efficiency programs. of the delta.

While I have spent much of this talk Some studies have suggested that really focusing on urban water use, the we could capture the water in Hetch agricultural sector in California actuHetchy at lower points. Hetch Hetchy ally uses about 80 percent of the water, now is a net energy producer, so it does and farmers are increasingly installing provide some benefits to the state, to drip and sprinkler irrigation, both of San Francisco in particular. I think which may actually increase energy use. that now is probably not the time to Some of that increase may be offset by take down Hetch Hetchy. This may be reductions in groundwater pumping, or a discussion that we have in 10 to 15 surface water deliveries, or fertilizer apyears. But I think restoring Hetch Hetplication, but the net effect depends in “[California] could reduce chy, restoring part of the Yosemite, is part on a number of factors, including definitely a goal, something we should water use by 33 percent by be working toward, but maybe now is local geography and where that water ultimately goes. installing many of these not really the time to work on that.

Water management must be a critical element of any long-term efforts to existing technologies.”

Q: How efficiently is water being reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The used by agriculture in California? good news is that many of these savings can be done at a lower Cooley: Some farmers are doing a good job. Since the midcost than traditional energy efficiency programs, particularly ’90s, farmers have been increasingly installing sprinkler and in the urban sector. drip irrigation. That trend is going to continue into the future. Through these more efficient systems, farmers are able Question and Answer Session to more precisely control the amount of water and fertilizer Q: Give an opinion on two things. First, the Peripheral that the plant gets, so they can increase yields at the same Canal: is it an advisable project? Second, restoring time as they decrease water use. It can provide an economic Hetch Hetchy. benefit. We still have a long way to go; there are still many Cooley: The Peripheral Canal went to the voters back in 1982. parts of the state [where] farmers still flood the fields. Part of Voters in Northern California overwhelmingly opposed this that is due to the fact that in parts of California, agricultural project, and voters in Southern California overwhelmingly water is relatively cheap so there is less of an incentive to supported it. It was seen at that time really as a way to take conserve [it]. I haven’t seen any very good surveys yet as to more water from the north and push it down south to pro- how much water could actually be saved in California if all mote further development. So now a new peripheral canal is farmers shifted to more efficient irrigation systems, but that’s on the table, though they’re calling it “new conveyance” or definitely something that needs to be pursued. any number of other kinds of less-loaded terms.

My opinion is that the devils are in the details. I mean, Q: What kinds of incentives are needed to promote what kind of canal are we talking about? Are we talking water efficiency in agriculture? about a huge canal, like the one proposed in 1982 that was Cooley: First is price. Many farmers throughout California sucking more water south? That was a bad canal then; it’s a are receiving subsidized water. For them, it’s not cost-effective bad canal now. Are we talking about something that would to install some of these water conservation devices because, NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

29

Photo by Amanda Leung

Q: Is there another country that we could look to as an example of “best case” use of water?

Cooley: Japan is much more constrained in terms of the supplies that it has available. It also has a much denser population, so there are actually a lot of technologies that are coming out of Japan that use water very efficiently. I’ve even seen a clothes washer that uses no water, essentially, because dirt particles and other particles that would be on your clothes are charged – it uses ionized air to remove the dirt and it improves the life of the products immensely. Australia has tremendous water scarcity problems, so it has implemented water-conservation and water-recycling programs. Incidentally, they were first to look at desalination, but they have concluded that there are many other options available. In Australia, for example, the dual-flush toilets – which we’re starting to see here in California – are standard.

“We really don’t know what the environmental impacts are of desalination.” essentially, taxpayers are paying for that water. So price is one of the most important ways to really get farmers – and even urban users – to really think about the value of water.

Q: I hear that desalination is extremely energy-intensive and that it produces byproducts in the form of extremely salty water, so the net costs of desalinization may outweigh the benefits. But do you see desalination in the future for California?

Cooley: I do see it in the future, though I believe that the future is not quite here yet. Today, desalination is still very expensive. The energy costs are incredibly high and therefore it can contribute to global warming through the emission of greenhouse gases. Some of that could be offset by energy efficiency improvements elsewhere or by producing renewable energy, but as of now, energy is 30 to 40 percent of total cost.

There are some environmental impacts with desalination, including, as you mentioned, the discharge of brine. In addition, the salty brine [carries] chemicals used throughout the desalination plant. Some of those chemicals are diluted, but some of them can concentrate in marine organisms. We really don’t know what the environmental impacts are of desalination. We need to spend time and effort monitoring and studying the impacts.

There are also impacts associated with the intake of water: Marine organisms are killed on the intake screens and in the desalination plant throughout the desalination process. It may be a more viable option in the future, but right now, there are many, many other options we can do first at a lower cost, with fewer social and environmental impacts.

30

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Q: Aren’t efficient toilets pointless, since they often have to flush two or three times?

Cooley: When the new standards were first implemented, some of the designers [rushed] to make it to market and to build toilets that actually met current standards, so they were using some of the older technologies. So there were some toilets back in the early ’90s where that was a problem. But today, people are very happy with some of the 1.6-gallonsper-flush and even the dual-flush toilets, and it is unnecessary to use them multiple times. If you have one of those [older] toilets, you should get a newer version.

Q: Is there still potential for more hydroelectric projects and more dams in the western United States?

A: We’ve built a substantial number of dams, both in California and in the West and, unfortunately, we’ve already built on most of the best sites. So, any dam that you can possibly site today is going to be very expensive. Many of them, and two of the proposed dams to deal with climate change – the Sites and the Temperance Flat – are actually net energy consumers. These will do nothing to promote or to discourage or mitigate some of the impacts of climate change.

We need to think about how we use what we have and how we manage what we have more efficiently.

Q: People were talking about ringing Australia with a whole network of nuclear power plants to create water, because Australia is facing serious long-term water shortage. Does that make sense?

Cooley: It does not make sense when there are less energyintensive, less environmentally damaging options available.

Australia is a perfect area for installing more solar and, in some places, more wind [farms]. Building energy-intensive desalination plants, compounding generating electicity with nuclear power, sounds scary to me. Ω This program was made possible by the generous support of The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

PROGRAMS For up-to-date information on programs, and to subscribe to our weekly newsletter, go to commonwealthclub.org

OVERVIEW

TICKETS

The Commonwealth Club organizes more than 500 events every year – on politics, the arts, media, literature, business and sports. Programs are held throughout the Bay Area.

Prepayment is required. Unless otherwise indicated, ALL Club programs – including “Members Free” events – require tickets. Programs often sell out, so we strongly encourage you to purchase tickets in advance.

Tickets are available at will call. Due to heavy call volume we urge you to purchase tickets online at commonwealthclub.org; or call (415) 597-6705.

Please note: All ticket sales are final.

STANDARD PROGRAMS Typically one hour long, these speeches cover a variety of topics and are followed by a question and answer session.

Most evening programs include a wine and cheese reception.

RADIO, VIDEO AND PODCASTS

PROGRAM SERIES FOOD LIT showcases pre-eminent chefs and cookbook authors and often includes a mouth-watering meal or tasting.

GOOD LIT features both established literary luminaries and up-and-coming writers in conversation.

INFORUM is for and by people in their 20s and 30s, although events are open to people of all ages.

VOICES OF REFORM promotes informed dialogue on how CA state government works and how it can work better.

MEMBER–LED FORUMS (MLF) Volunteer-driven programs focus on particular fields. Most evening programs include a wine reception.

MEMBER-LED FORUMS CHAIR Dr. Carol Fleming carol.fleming@speechtraining com

Hear Club programs on more than 150 public and commercial radio stations throughout the United States. For the latest schedule, visit commonwealthclub.org/broadcast.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, tune in to: KALW (91.7 FM) Tuesdays at 1 p.m.

KQED (88.5 FM) Fridays at 8 p.m. and Saturdays at 2 a.m.

KOIT (96.5 FM and 1260 AM) Sundays at 6 a.m.

KLIV (1590 AM) Thursdays at 7 p.m.

KSAN (107.7 FM) Sundays at 5 a.m.

KNBR (680 and 1050 AM) Sundays at 5 a.m.

KFOG (104.5 and 97.7 FM) Sundays at 5 a.m.

XM satellite radio (station 133) broadcasts programs on Sundays at 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. PST and on the web at xmradio.com. Go to News, then click XM Public Radio.

Subscription required.

FORUM CHAIRS 2007 ARTS Anne W. Smith asmith@ggu.edu

GROWNUPS John Milford jmilford@ehf.org

ASIA–PACIFIC AFFAIRS Cynthia Miyashita cmiyashita@hotmail.com

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Norma Walden norwalden@aol.com

BAY GOURMET Cathy Curtis cathy_curtis2@pacbell.net

LGBT Stephen Seewer stephen.m.seewer@ wellsfargo.com

SF BOOK DISCUSSION Howard Crane cranehow@aol.com BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Tom Waller tomjwaller@earthlink.net ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES Kerry Curtis kcurtis@ggu.edu

MIDDLE EAST Parisa Nesva Derani parisanesva@yahoo.com

Watch Club programs on KGO-DT Plus channel 7.2 or Comcast 194 from 4 – 5 p.m. Monday through Friday.

Visit abclocal.go.com/kgo for the latest schedule.

View streaming video of Club programs at fora.tv.

Subscribe to our free podcasting service to automatically download a new program recording to your personal computer each week: commonwealthclub.org/podcast.

PERSONAL GROWTH Dr. David K Olkkola david@thedreammasters.com

HARD OF HEARING?

PSYCHOLOGY Patrick O’Reilly porei@aol.com

To request an assistive listening device, please e-mail Ricardo Esway at resway@commonwealthclub.org or call (415) 869-5911 seven working days before the event.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

31

EIGHT WEEKS CALENDAR NOVEMBER 05 – DECEMBER 30 MON

TUE

WED

NOVE M B E R 0 5

06

07

5:30 p.m. While Europe Slept FE 6:00 p.m. Joseph Ellis FM 6:00 p.m. Seventh Century Japanese Theatrics FM

5:15 p.m. What You Need to Know Before You Are 65

6:00 p.m. Creation and Uses of Compelling Online Video 6:00 p.m. Imad Moustapha

12

13

14

5:45 p.m. The Impact of Wolves on Yellowstone National Park 6:00 p.m. Business & Leadership Forum Discussion FE

Postponed A Higher Purpose for Business 6:30 p.m. Health & Medicine Planning FE 7:00 p.m. Tom Perkins

19

20

21

5:15 p.m. Sex and the 60s FM 6:30 p.m. No Reservatons: An Evening with Anthony Bourdain

5:45 p.m. Break Through

26

27

28

6:00 p.m. On Becoming Green FM

6:00 p.m. Peak: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo from Maslow 6:00 p.m. Dr. Gloria C. Duffy –Note new date!

6:00 p.m. Good Lit: Frank McCourt 6:00 p.m. Innovation: Making the Radical Practical

03

04

05

5:30 p.m. Saturday FE 6:00 p.m. Where Did My Mojo Go? FM

2:30 p.m. Madame Chiang 6:00 p.m. Every Child Dreams of Building a Castle

5:30 p.m. LGBT Planning Meeting FE 5:30 p.m. Members Holiday Party MO

10

11

12

6:00 p.m. Creating 21st-Century Sustainable Neighborhoods

17

18

19

5:45 p.m. Limits of Biofuels

6:00 p.m. Dessert as Art

25

24

32

6:00 p.m. Talk So People Listen

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

26

CHRISTMAS DAY

CLUB HOLIDAY

Club offices closed

Club offices closed

NOVEMBER 2007

LEGEND THU

San Francisco

FM

Free program for members

East Bay

FE

Free program for everyone

Silicon Valley

MO

Members–only program

FRI

SAT

SUN

10

11

08

09

6:00 p.m. Rosabeth Moss Kanter 6:00 p.m. The “De-Gaying” of the Castro 7:30 p.m. Marriage Equality Status Update

Noon GraceAnn Walden FM

15

16

17

18

22

23

24

25

Club offices closed

Club offices closed

29

30

DE CE MBE R 01

02

07

08

09

13

14

15

16

20

21

22

23

27

28

29

30

Club offices closed

Club offices closed

8:15 a.m. Chris Matthews 6:00 p.m. Beyond Endless War

THANKSGIVING DAY

CLUB HOLIDAY

6:00 p.m. Theresa Sparks 6:30 p.m. INFORUM: 2007: Is this 1984?

– Just added!

06 6:00 p.m. Who Should We Follow?

CLUB HOLIDAY

CLUB HOLIDAY

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

33

INDEX BY REGION NOVEMBER 01 – DECEMBER 31 SAN FRANCISCO NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

THU 01 5:30 p.m. FE Explore the World from The Club 6:30 p.m. INFORUM: Josh Wolf

MON 03 5:30 p.m. FE Saturday 6:00 p.m. FM Where Did My Mojo Go?

MON 05 5:30 p.m. FE While Europe Slept 6:00 p.m. FM Joseph Ellis 6:00 p.m. FM Seventh Century Japanese Theatrics

TUE 04 2:30 p.m. Madame Chiang 6:00 p.m. Every Child Dreams of Building a Castle

TUE 06 5:15 p.m. What You Need to Know Before

You Are 65 WED 07 6:00 p.m. Online Video 6:00 p.m. Imad Moustapha THU 08 6:00 p.m. The “De-gaying” of the Castro 6:00 p.m. Rosabeth Moss Kanter 7:30 p.m. Marriage Equality Status Update FRI 09 Noon

WED 05 5:30 p.m. FE LGBT Planning Meeting 5:30 p.m. MO Members Holiday Party THU 06 6:00 p.m. Who Should We Follow?

MON 10 6:00 p.m. Creating a 21st-Century Community WED 12 6:00 p.m. Talk So People Listen TUE 18 5:45 p.m. Limits of Biofuels

FM GraceAnn Walden

TUE 13 5:45 p.m. Wolves of Yellowstone Park 6:00 p.m. FE Business & Leadership

Forum Discussion

WED 19 6:00 p.m. Dessert as Art

WED 14 Postponed Higher Purpose for Business 6:30 p.m. FE Health & Medicine MLF

Planning Meeting

SILICON VALLEY

THU 15 6:00 p.m. Beyond Endless War

NOVEMBER

MON 19 5:15 p.m. FM Sex and the 60s

THU 01 7:00 p.m. FE William Mobley

TUE 20 5:45 p.m. Break Through

WED 14 7:00 p.m. Tom Perkins

MON 26 6:00 p.m. FM On Becoming Green

THU 15 8:15 a.m. Chris Matthews

TUE 27 6:00 p.m.

6:00 p.m.

Peak: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo from Maslow Dr. Gloria C. Duffy – Note new date

WED 28 6:00 p.m. Good Lit: Frank McCourt 6:00 p.m. Innovation: Making the Radical Practical THU 29 6:00 p.m. Theresa Sparks 6:30 p.m. INFORUM: 2007: Is this 1984?

– Just added!

34

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

EAST BAY NOVEMBER MON 19 6:30 p.m. Anthony Bourdain

NOVEMBER 2007

FM

Free program for members

FE

Free program for everyone

MO

Members–only program

FOREIGN LANGUAGE GROUPS Free for members.

Location: San Francisco Club Office ITALIAN Intermediate Class Mondays, noon Ebe Sapone (415) 564-6789 RUSSIAN Int./Advanced Conversation Mondays, 2 p.m.

Rita Sobolev (925) 376-7889 SPANISH Intermediate Conversation Tuesdays, noon Judith Petersen (415) 597-6701 FRENCH Advanced Conversation Tuesdays, noon Gary Lawrence (925) 932-2458 GERMAN Int./Advanced Conversation Wednesdays, noon Uta Wagner (650) 697-3004 uwagner@pacbell.net FRENCH Intermediate Class Thursdays, noon Margery Bratz (contact) (415) 664-8157 SPANISH Beginning/Int. Class Fridays, noon Luis Salvago-Toledo (925) 376-7830

NOVEMBER 01–05 THU 01 | SAN FRANCISCO

THU 01 | SAN FRANCISCO

T H U 0 1 | S I L I C O N VA L L E Y

Explore the World from The Commonwealth Club

Freedom of the Blog

No Spare Parts: Life and Death of Circuits and the Brain

All interested Club members are welcome to attend monthly one-hour planning meetings of the International Relations Member-Led Forum. We focus on Europe, Latin America, Africa and worldwide topics. Join us to discuss current international issues and plan programs for the months ahead.

MLF: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Norma Walden

JOSH WOLF, Video Blogger; Journalist

Twenty-five-year-old video blogger Wolf served 226 days in prison after refusing to turn over videos of an anti-G8 anarchist protest to a federal district court. Wolf, who was awarded the Journalist of the Year award by the Society of Professional Journalists in 2006, tackles the controversies between new media and old media and advocates for participatory and transparent journalism. Hear his thoughts on freedom of the press in an age of technology, what defines a journalist and other issues.

WILLIAM MOBLEY, Director, Neuroscience Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine

Take an unparalleled journey through the human brain. Mobley will focus on how the latest advancement in neuroscience research is deciphering brain function and he’ll hint at what the future may bring to our ability to further understand our brain and ourselves. This program is held in conjunction with the premiere of Body Worlds 2 & The Three Pound Gem at The Tech Museum of Innovation.

Location: Club Office Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. reception/book signing Cost: $12 members, $20 non-members, $7 students Also know: Rescheduled from Sept. 19

Location: Tech Museum of Innovation, 201 S. Market St., San José Time: 7 p.m. program Cost: FREE Also know: Co-sponsor: The Health Trust

MON 05 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 05 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 05 | SAN FRANCISCO

While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam Is Destroying the West from Within

Why the Founders Matter

Seventh-Century Japanese Theatrics at The Club

Join us for a rousing discussion of the latest book from Bruce Bawer, whose previous book, the highly acclaimed Stealing Jesus, accuses Christian fundamentalists of widespread intolerance. While Europe Slept was born after Bawer left his native New York for Europe, where he perceives a radical element of Islam threatening the principal tenets and traditions of the West. Come discuss this provocative new book with your fellow Club members.

The author will NOT be present.

MLF: BOOK DISCUSSION Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Howard Crane

JOSEPH ELLIS, Historian; Author, American Creation: Triumphs and Tragedies at the Founding of the Republic

Come hear a renowned historian discuss the prominent figures and ideological battles that resulted in the turbulent but triumphant birth of the American republic. Ellis’ biography of Thomas Jefferson, American Sphinx, received the National Book Award in 1997 and his Founding Brothers was the 2001 Pulitzer Prize winner for history.

Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. wine and cheese reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $18 non-members

LLUIS VALLS, Joint Artistic Director, Theatre of Yugen

Experience the essence of seventh-century Japanese theatrics with the Theatre of Yugen at their first-ever visit to The Club.

Unique in its commitment to working with both Kyogen and Noh theater forms, the Theatre combines Western sensibilities and Eastern aesthetics in its demonstration of Yugen. This performance features live music and allows you to learn about this professional ensemble.

MLF: ASIA-PACIFIC AFFAIRS Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $8 Asia Society members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Carol High Also know: In association with the Asia Society

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

35

NOVEMBER 06–14 TUE 06 | SAN FRANCISCO

WED 07 | SAN FRANCISCO

WED 07 | SAN FRANCISCO

What You Need to Know Before You Are 65

Creation and Uses of Compelling Online Video

The U.S., Syria and the New Old Middle East: Confrontation or Cooperation?

BRADLEY J. INMAN, Journalist; Tech.

Entrepreneur; Founder, InmanNews, HomeGain and TurnHere.com

ESTHER KOCH, Eldercare Advisor

For many baby boomers, the time for qualifying for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicare Part D is just around the corner. But for most, a true understanding of these benefits remains shrouded in confusion. Learn the realities of what you can expect, and, more important, what not to expect. Find out what every boomer needs to know and plan for.

MLF: GROWNUPS Location: Club Office Time: 4:45 p.m. reception, 5:15 p.m. program Cost: $8 member, $15 non-members Program Organizer: John Milford

In conversation with Kare Anderson of The Say It Better Center

The Internet video revolution has produced a low-cost, technology-rich environment that provides great opportunities to grow a business, help a cause or simply tell your story. Inman shares what is needed to develop captivating online video vignettes, including strategies, steps, pitfalls to avoid and secrets for success.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Kare Anderson

IMAD MOUSTAPHA, Syrian Ambassador to the United States

Syria is a key player in Middle Eastern politics; a strong diplomatic relationship with the United States is critical, according to the Iraq Study Group’s findings, in efforts to rebuild Iraq and improve the region’s relationship with the West. Moustapha was a dean at the University of Damascus and secretary general of the Arab School for Science and Technology.

Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. wine and cheese reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $12 members, $18 non-members

THU 08 | SAN FRANCISCO

THU 08 | SAN FRANCISCO

Marriage Equality Status Update

America the Principled: Opportunities for Becoming a Can-Do Nation Once Again

MARK LENO, Member, California State Assembly SHANNON MINTER, Legal Director, NCLR ANDREW KOPPELMAN, Northwestern University JO HOENNINGER – Moderator

The fight for full marriage rights for gays and lesbians continues nationwide, and California legislators have recently passed another same-sex marriage bill (which the governor has again vowed to veto). We will engage in conversation with Assemblyman Leno, top legal strategist Minter and academician Koppelman to explore the status of same-sex marriage in California. Come learn the results of the latest research, polls and initiatives from three leading experts in the field.

MLF: LGBT Location: LGBT Center, 1800 Market St. Time: 7 p.m. reception, 7:30 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Stephen Seewer Also know: Co-sponsored by Actively Out. In association with The SF LGBT Community Center and the Northwestern University Gay and Lesbian Alumni Association (NUGALA)

36

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

ROSABETH MOSS KANTER, Professor, Harvard Business School; Author, America the Principled

What steps can we take to resuscitate America’s leadership in business and politics? Kanter is a strategy and innovation specialist and the recipient of 22 honorary doctoral degrees. She was a professor at Yale and Brandeis before coming to Harvard and has served as the editor of the Harvard Business Review.

Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. wine and cheese reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $12 members, $18 non-members

THU 08 | SAN FRANCISCO

FRI 09 | SAN FRANCISCO

The “De-Gaying” of the Castro: Are Queer ’Hoods Worth Saving?

GraceAnn Walden

DON REUTER, Author

Food Writer; Author, 86 Recipes San Francisco

ALAN MARTINEZ, Architect; Preservationist DEMIAN QUESNEL, Castro Resident; Urban Studies Student

In conversation with Culinary Enthusiast Susan Render

ANMARIE RODGERS, Chief Planner, San Francisco Planning Department DON ROMESBURG, Board Co-chair, LGBT Historical Society – Moderator

With “gay” neighborhoods disappearing across the United States, the longevity of the Castro district as a predominantly LGBT neighborhood has become uncertain. Come hear our panelists discuss the ways in which a community can maintain and preserve itself as they make the case for a permanent LGBT element in the city plan of San Francisco.

MLF: LGBT Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Julian Chang

Food maven Walden wrote the “Inside Scoop” for the San Francisco Chronicle for 16 years. A former professional cook, Walden has contributed stories to Travelers’ Tales books and has had stories published in many local and national magazines. Her new book, 86 Recipes San Francisco, which celebrates the city’s great local restaurants, is a cookbook that doubles as a travel guide.

MLF: BAY GOURMET Location: Club Office Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Cathy Curtis

TUE 13 | SAN FRANCISCO

TUE 13 | SAN FRANCISCO

WED 14 | SAN FRANCISCO

The Impact of Wolves of Yellowstone National Park

Business & Leadership Forum Discussion

Health & Medicine Planning Meeting

NATHAN VARLEY, Naturalist, Yellowstone Association Institute

Join us for our periodic discussion meetings hosted by the Business & Leadership Member-Led Forum. It’s an opportunity to come together informally and talk with others about important topics, including matters that have impact in our personal and professional lives. All interested Club members are encouraged to attend and participate.

Are you interested in good health? Do you follow the latest breakthroughs and trends in health and medicine? Would you like to help Club members stay abreast of these developments? If so, the new Health & Medicine Member-Led Forum could use your talents and input.

Bring yourselves, your ideas on how to structure this MLF, and your suggestions for event speakers and topics to the inaugural meeting of this revived MLF.

LINDA THURSTON, Gray Wolf Recovery Project

Wildlife biologists Varley and Thurston have been “on the ground” with the wolves of Yellowstone since 1995. They will discuss the status of the wolves 12 years later and how the wolves have helped to restore the natural ecology of the park.

Varley and Thurston will also touch on the peaceful co-existence of wolves and ranchers that has resulted from innovative livestock guarding practices.

MLF: ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES Location: Club Office Time: 5:15 p.m. reception, 5:45 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Judy McCarthy Langley

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 6 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Tom Waller

MLF: HEALTH & MEDICINE Location: Club Office Time: 6 p.m. reception, 6:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Bill Grant

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

37

NOVEMBER 14–28 W E D 1 4 | S I L I C O N VA L L E Y

Members-Only Events BART to The Club

Tom Perkins Founding Partner, Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and Byers; Author, Valley Boy

Hop on any city-bound BART train and get off at Montgomery station.

Perkins’ presence as a pioneering venture capitalist and entrepreneur has helped drive innovations in the high-tech and biotech industries. He co-founded one of the world’s first venture capital firms, with Eugene Kleiner in 1972. Perkins reflects on his career, marriage to Danielle Steel, unexpected resignation from the board of Hewlett Packard and friendships with movers and shakers of Silicon Valley.

The Club is at the top of the 2nd Street exit, at 595 Market Street.

…one more reason to join The Commonwealth Club

Enjoy exclusive opportunities to hear from and meet some of the world’s most interesting people. Members-only events have included Willie Brown, Gary Hart, Robert Reich and Tony La Russa.

Location: Crowne Plaza Cabana, 4290 El Camino Real, Palo Alto Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7 p.m. program, 8 p.m. book signing Cost: $15 members, $25 non-members Also know: Bookseller: Kepler’s Books

T H U 1 5 | S I L I C O N VA L L E Y

THU 15 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 19 | SAN FRANCISCO

Chris Matthews

Beyond Endless War: Iraq, Terror and American Power

Sex and the 60s: How to Survive as a Senior Woman in Today’s Dating World

Host, MSNBC’s “Hardball”; Author, Life’s a Campaign

As the 2008 presidential race heats up, the hard-question-asking host of “Hardball” provides an entertaining and enlightening wake-up call as to what is really behind the candidates and their campaigns. In his career as a broadcast journalist and former speechwriter for President Jimmy Carter, Matthews has learned the strategies and tactics politicians employ to build reputations and achieve success.

Location: SRI International Events Center, 333 Ravenswood Ave, Menlo Park Time: 7:45 a.m. check-in/breakfast, 8:15 a.m. program, 9:15 a.m. book signing Cost: $21 members, $28 non-members Also know: Co-presenter: Kepler’s Books

38

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

MARK DANNER, Professor of Journalism, UC Berkeley; Author, Torture and Truth

If Iraq, which the Bush administration describes as the central front of the war on terror, has in fact become a “quagmire,” what can be done? A long-time staff writer at The New Yorker and regular contributor of articles on American foreign policy to The New York Times Magazine and The New York Review of Books, Danner insists that it is now “the time of solutions.”

MLF: MIDDLE EAST Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members, $7 students Program Organizer: Celia Menczel

NOVEMBER 2007

CISSY WECHTER, Author

Wechter draws not only on her own experiences of jumping back into the dating world after 40 years but also on her survey of senior women across the Unite States Wechter’s amorous adventures, outspoken opinions and candid advice might seem outrageous to some. Ultimately, her message is: “These may not be the best years of our lives, but they’re definitely the best ones we have left!”

MLF: GROWNUPS Location: Club office Time: 4:45 reception, 5:15 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $15 non-members Program Organizer: John Milford

M O N 1 9 | E A S T B AY

TUE 20 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 26 | SAN FRANCISCO

No Reservations: An Evening with Anthony Bourdain

Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility

On Becoming Green

ANTHONY BOURDAIN Chef; Author; Host, “No Reservations”

MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER AND TED NORDHAUS, Co-founders, Breakthrough Institute; Managing Directors, American Environics

From China to Las Vegas, Bourdain has eaten at some of the world’s most famous and infamous tables. Ever since he penned Kitchen Confidential, which blew the doors off the restaurant industry, Bourdain has pursued the perfect meal. The controversial but likable rebel chef stops by to share experiences of his travels.

Location: Bentley School, Student Performing Arts Center, 1000 Upper Happy Valley Rd., Lafayette Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program Cost: $15 members, $30 non-members, $7 students

In October 2004, Shellenberger and Nordhaus argued that environmentalism was incapable of dealing with global warming and must die for a new ecological politics to be born. Now, they will make their case for a new “politics of possibility” to replace the old “politics of limits” – from environmentalism to liberalism to conservatism – grounded in changing social values and an expansive new vision of the future.

Location: Club Office Time: 5:15 p.m. reception, 5:45 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members

ALFREDO ZAPAROLLI, President and CEO, Techlinea Inc.

Small businesses play a major role in applying best practices that affect the economy and the environment. Come learn about a local firm’s journey from increased awareness to full-scale implementation of sustainability principles among employees, suppliers and customers. While technology is a key enabler, Zaparolli will speak to the necessity of a proper mindset and to today’s higher standards of personal responsibility and professional accountability.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Dina Austin

TUE 27 | SAN FRANCISCO

TUE 27 | SAN FRANCISCO

WED 28 | SAN FRANCISCO

Peak: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo from Maslow

Relating to the New Russia

Frank McCourt

DR. GLORIA C. DUFFY, President and CEO, The Commonwealth Club

Author, Angela’s Ashes, ’Tis and Angela and the Baby Jesus

Duffy will describe the Russia that has emerged in the Putin era and offer some guidelines for how the United States can successfully relate to this country whose growing influence is fueled by petrodollars. Come hear Club President and CEO Duffy’s discussion on her principal field of expertise.

In Conversation with Sandip Roy, Host, KALW’s “Upfront”

CHIP CONLEY, Author, Peak: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo from Maslow

Noted author and entrepreneur Conley offers a creative and thought-provoking new approach to running a business. He will provide insightful prescriptions to help your company achieve peak performance as he explains the application of the theories of Abraham Maslow in the field of business management.

MLF: LGBT Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Julian Chang

Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. wine and cheese reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $12 members, $18 non-members Also know: Note: Rescheduled from November 14. Underwritten by Pitch and Cathie Johnson

McCourt’s memoir of immigration to America from Ireland, Angela’s Ashes, captivated readers all across the country and won a 1997 Pulitzer Prize. After two more memoirs, he now tries his hand at a children’s book, Angela and the Baby Jesus, about a little girl who sees a naked baby Jesus and wants to keep him warm.

Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing Cost: $12 members, $18 non-members Also know: Bookseller: Stacey’s Books

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

39

NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 10 WED 28 | SAN FRANCISCO

THU 29 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 03 | SAN FRANCISCO

Innovation: Making the Radical Practical

Theresa Sparks

Saturday

President, San Francisco Police Commission

Join us as we delve into Booker Prizewinning author Ian McEwan’s most recent novel. Saturday depicts a fateful day as seen through the eyes of Henry Perowne, a reflective neurosurgeon whose comfortable life is shaken following a run-in with a street thug. Come discuss this provocative new book with your fellow Club members. The author will NOT be present.

GARY GETZ, Director, Strategos; Co-author, Funding Growth in an Age of Austerity

Getz argues that the capacity to innovate lies at the heart of individual and organizational effectiveness in a fast-changing, highly competitive world. But how do we actually think and act differently to generate innovative breakthroughs? Getz reveals eight principles and provides concrete tools for driving innovation and shows how to dramatically reduce risk in pursuing radical ideas.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Tom Waller

In addition to being the newly elected president of the San Francisco Police Commission, Sparks is the CEO of Good Vibrations, a Vietnam veteran and was named 2003 California “Woman of the Year” by the California State Assembly.

She also happens to be transgendered.

Theresa will discuss her life of activism and public service and her newest role in the city of San Francisco.

MLF: LGBT Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Stephen Seewer

MLF: BOOK DISCUSSION Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Howard Crane

MON 03 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 03 | SAN FRANCISCO

Immigrant Health Care: Present Challenges and Future Solutions

Where Did My Mojo Go? Energy Management for Maximum Personal R.O.I.

PANELISTS TBA

Governor Schwarzenegger recently announced his plan to “share the burden” of health-care costs among all California residents, including immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. How will the state provide resources for a population that is uninsured and lacking access to care?

Our panel of experts will provide insights on policy, education and health-care changes for present and future immigrants who live in California.

Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. wine and cheese reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $18 non-members Also know: Sponsored by the California Wellness Foundation

40

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Volunteer!

The Club can’t function without the dedication of its volunteers. Get more involved with the nation’s premier public affairs forum!

For more information, e-mail club@commonwealthclub.org or call The Club’s office at (415) 597-6700.

NOVEMBER 2007

CHRISTIE DAMES; CEO, TechTalk/ Studio; Co-founder, Extreme Healing

Energy vampires – individuals or organizations that take excessive amounts of energy without giving anything in return – are a hidden epidemic of modern life.

Invisible toxins rob our brain of its natural vitality and diminish productivity. Dames will offer 10 strategies for overcoming and transforming blocks to peak performance in all aspects of your life.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $15 non-member Program Organizer: Kevin O’Malley

TUE 04 | SAN FRANCISCO

TUE 04 | SAN FRANCISCO

WED 05 | SAN FRANCISCO

The Indomitable Madame Chiang

Every Child Dreams of Building a Castle

LGBT Member-Led Forum Planning Meeting

CECILIA CHIANG, Restaurateur; Author, The Seventh Daughter In conversation with Sara Deseran, Senior Editor, 7x7 Magazine

DARYL SATTUI, Owner, V. Sattui Winery, St. Helena

Lesbian/gay/bisexual/transgender issues are in the headlines as same-sex custody battles and the advocacy of “marriage equality” continue to generate headlines.

Do you have any ideas for speakers or program topics? Would you like to see more LGBT-related programs take place at The Commonwealth Club? Come to our planning meeting to brainstorm new topics. New members are especially encouraged to attend.

Chiang began introducing Americans to authentic Chinese cuisine in 1961 when she opened her SF restaurant, The Mandarin. Chiang discusses her remarkable journey from China to the U.S. while we sip on wine and dine on delectable contemporary Asian cuisine. Prepared by Chef Alexander Ong, the lunch will include recipes from Chiang’s new book.

After reviving his family’s winery – the State Fair awarded it 2007’s top California winery – Sattui created an architectural tour de force, Castello di Amorosa in Calistoga. Built of imported medieval Italian stone and brick, using Old World techniques, this 121,000 square-foot castle is complete with drawbridge, battle towers and 107 rooms. Hear his story of conceiving and re-creating what he calls “the most amazing new, old building in California.”

MLF: LGBT Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Stephen Seewer

MLF: BAY GOURMET Location: Betelnut Restaurant, 2030 Union St. Time: 2:15 p.m. check-in, 2:30 p.m.–4:30 p.m. lunch/program Cost: $75 members, $90 non-members Program Organizer: Cathy Curtis

MLF: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Conchita Applegate

WED 05 | SAN FRANCISCO

THU 06 | SAN FRANCISCO

MON 10 | SAN FRANCISCO

Members Holiday Party

Who Should We Follow?

Creating 21st-Century Sustainable Neighborhoods

Happy Holidays from The Commonwealth Club! Come celebrate another wonderful year at The Club with food, drink and good times for all. Share the holiday spirit with your fellow Club members, and hear from Club staff.

Advance reservations are required.

MICHAEL MACCOBY, Anthropologist; Psychoanalyst; Author, The Leaders We Need: And What Makes Us Follow

MEMBERS-ONLY + 1 paying guest Location: Club Office Time: 5:30–7:30 p.m. reception Cost: $15 members, $15 member-guests in advance. $20 members, $20 memberguests at the door.

At a time of crisis in leadership, many people worry that our organizations and our world are in deep trouble. We face historic threats and daunting challenges, and we need those with character and competence to bring us together to take on these thorny issues. With more than 35 years of experience working with leaders and their followers in business, government, health care and education, Maccoby will advise us on selecting and becoming the leaders we need.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Tom Waller

HARRISON S. FRAKER, Dean, College of Environmental Design, UC Berkeley CRAIG W. HARTMAN, FAIA, Design Partner, Skidmore, Owings and Merrill JEAN ROGERS, Sr. Consultant, ARUP

How do we create zero-carbon self-sustaining neighborhoods? Focusing on pioneering work in China and the landmark “Treasure Island Master Plan,” experts present the challenges of integrating all the elements – people, buildings, space, transportation, energy, water and natural forces – in designing compact, transitoriented, sustainable communities.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: MEMBERS FREE, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Kevin O’Malley

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

41

DECEMBER 12–19 WED 12 | SAN FRANCISCO

TUE 18 | SAN FRANCISCO

WED 19 | SAN FRANCISCO

Talk So People Listen

Limits of Biofuels

Dessert as Art

VICTORIA SQUIER, Speaking Coach and Instructor, Speakeasy Communications Consulting

DAVID FRIDLEY, Energy Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

ELIZABETH FALKNER, Chef; Cookbook Author, Elizabeth Falkner’s Demolition Desserts: Recipes from Citizen Cake

The impact of speech depends on much more than just the words that are spoken.

How we say something is often more important than what we say. With over 30 years of experience studying speech and coaching speakers, Squier will share secrets about what can be done vocally and physically to best connect with listeners, be better understood and respected and be more effective as a communicator in general.

Biofuels are promised as the energy of the future but, already, unwanted consequences of pursuing such a future are emerging. For instance, the American thirst for transportation liquids has diverted more than a fifth of our corn crop to ethanol production and the push in Europe and Asia toward biodiesel blends has accelerated deforestation in Indonesia and Malaysia. Fridley will discuss the role of biofuels in the world’s transportation systems and offer solutions.

MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Tom Waller

MLF: ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES Location: Club Office Time: 5:15 p.m. reception, 5:45 p.m. program Cost: $8 members, $15 non-members Program Organizer: Craig Vassel

Podcasting

CLUB OF

C R NI A 90

3

E

H LT

I FO AL

MMONW CO EA

Subscribe to our podcasts!

Receive a new program recording each week. It’s free!

F OU N D E

D

1

TH

For more information, visit commonwealthclub.org/podcast

42

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Notice of the Annual Meeting of The Commonwealth Club of California Notice is given that the Annual Meeting of The Commonwealth Club of California will be held on Tuesday, November 27, at 5:45 p.m. in the Club Office, 595 Market St., 2nd Floor, San Francisco. The general nature of matters to be considered: The Nominating Committee will give its report, consisting of the nominations for chair-elect and members-at-large of the Board of Governors. Dated: September 1, 2007, William F. Adams, Secretary.

NOVEMBER 2007

In conversation with Amanda Gold, Food and Wine Writer, SF Chronicle

Citizen Cake, the beloved San Francisco dessert destination, showcases the creations of the woman – Chef Falkner – who turned dessert-making into an art form. Her desserts both satisfy the sweet tooth and delight the eye. Come enjoy her treats as you listen to her discuss the many dessert plates featured in her new book.

MLF: BAY GOURMET Location: Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m. program Cost: $10 members, $17 non-members Program Organizer: Cathy Curtis

JUST ADDED! THU NOV 29 | SAN FRANCISCO

2007: Is This 1984?

See Club web site for panelists

In the age of Web 2.0, Google Earth maps, human microchip implants and MySpace, what is privacy? Information is ubiquitous, and it’s all available at the stroke of a few keys. Are technology and the consumer’s thirst for information crossing the line of privacy? Has terrorism infringed upon our civil rights? Or is it all making us safer and more accountable for our actions? We’ll look at how the Web and technology have challenged privacy.

Location: Club Office Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. wine and hors d’oeuvres reception Cost: $12 members, $20 non-members

Water in Perspective Thirty-nine countries get most of their water from other countries, and 15 import more than 75 percent of their water.

A New York Times article notes that 1.5 million barrels of oil a year are used just to make the plastic water bottles that Americans use.

In 2004, Americans consumed roughly 6.9 billion gallons of bottled water.

Alice Waters banned the use of bottled still water at Chez Panisse in 2006, the Times reports.

In 2007, The Commonwealth Club of California, the In March 2007, the Earth Policy Institute San Francisco city government, and Levi Strauss reported that “the average American & Co. all replaced bottled water in their household consumes about 480 cubic offices with fresh tap water. meters (127,400 gallons) of water” per year.

Over the past five years, municipal water prices “If all the earth’s water fit in a gallon jug,” rose by an average of 27 percent in the says WaterPartners International, “available United States and 58 percent in Canada, fresh water would equal just over a tablespoon.” according to the Earth Policy Institute.

The average American uses 100 to 176 gallons of water at home each day, according to WaterPartners International; the average African family uses about 5 gallons of water per day.

The World Health Organization estimates that 42 percent of the world’s population lacks proper means of sanitation.

“Of all water on earth, 97.5 percent is salt water, and of the remaining 2.5 percent fresh water, some 70 percent is frozen in the polar icecaps. The other 30 percent is mostly ... soil moisture or lies in underground aquifers,” reports water.org. ”Less than 1 percent of the world’s fresh water (or about 0.007 percent of all water on earth) is readily accessible for direct human uses.”

More than 5 million people die each year from water-related disease, according to water.org.

Roughly 4,900 child deaths each day are the result of diarrhea, the United Nations reports.

“Those eight daily glasses of water you’re supposed to drink for good health … will cost you ... about 49 cents a year if you take it from the New York City tap,” concludes The New York Times.

Compiled by David J. Fine. Sources: Swanson, Lawrence and Christine O’Connell, “Turn on the Tap,” The New York Times, April 22, 2007; Earth Policy Institute; UNDP’s Human Development Report 2006; water.org; World Health Organization. Photo by Slawomir Jastrzebski.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

43

Photo by David Phillips

DAMS AND GLOBAL WARMING Dams may be magnificent examples of engineering derring-do, but they can have very negative effects on the environment and drinking water, argues McCully.

Excerpt from “Dams and Global Warming: Polluting Reservoirs, Droughts and Floods,” August 6, 2007.

PATRICK MCCULLY Executive Director, International Rivers Network

T

o most people, a reservoir seems the epitome of clean energy; there is a lovely stretch of blue shimmering water. But that’s rather far from the truth. In reality, reservoirs are large sources of global warming pollution. The three gases that are emitted by reservoirs are carbon dioxide – which I am sure everyone knows is the most important greenhouse gas – methane, and nitrous oxide.

Those gases come from rotting organic matter in the reservoir. It’s a biological process that probably happens in every reservoir. There is a lot of carbon, inorganic matter, detritis, dead plants and so on, the sediments that wash into the reservoir from upstream.

There are plants that grow around the edges of the reservoir during the dryer season, and in the wet season, when the reservoir rises, those plants provide fuel for producing these emissions. There is also an algae that grows in the reservoir

44

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

and in a sense it is pulling carbon out of the atmosphere as it grows, and then rotting and releasing it again.

Those are the major reasons why dams emit carbon, but there is also another set of reasons. One is that huge amounts of cement are used in the construction of the dam, and the production of cement is itself a major cause of carbon dioxide emissions. [There are] also the fossil fuels that go into dam construction, the clearing of land, the infrastructure that goes with the dam – access roads and so on – and irrigation. Flooded soils are a major source of methane emissions around the world.

The type of irrigation you usually get from big dam projects is often inefficient and leads to a lot of waterlogging.

Measuring the world

A

s far as the science goes in this issue, all the serious scientists who look at it realize there are emissions. But

the complicated and very controversial issue is how actually So what about North America? to quantify the emissions. You get one faction of people that Well, in Canada, there has been quite a lot of research; is really unaware of this issue. They say the emissions are some of the main research happening around the world has zero. That’s clearly wrong. There are other factions that will been in Canada and Brazil. The gross emissions there are say, “Yes, there are some emissions, but they are very low.” between 2 and 12 percent of a natural gas combined-cycle Then there are independent scientists who will say, “Actually, [process]. So the [emissions from reservoirs] are not negligible, these emissions can be extremely high.” So what are the but they are much less than those from fossil fuel. In the different factors?

United States, there have been very few published emissions The single biggest factor is the climate in which the [studies], but there were a few reservoirs in the western U.S., dam is located. Reservoirs in the tropics have much higher including three in California, that were studied by Canadian emissions than elsewhere. There, the emissions can be scientists. According to their figures, the emissions from the comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, fossil Shasta Dam would be about 10 percent of a natural gas plant. fuel emissions. Other factors include: How is the reservoir But they only looked at these reservoirs in one day in Sepoperated? What is the depth of the reservoir? How big is the tember several years ago. We know the emissions vary widely reservoir? Generally, a very large reservoir will have more between seasons and according to whatever the weather is. emissions than a smaller one. A very deep reservoir in a It’s pretty hard to extrapolate from that one day to a whole canyon, with a quite-small surface area, will tend to have year, so 10 percent is a very rough guess. pretty low emissions; reservoirs in a flood plain, that are very shallow and spread out over a wide area, could have very Under the sun hen they looked at the New Melones reservoir, anhigh emissions. Also, the [height] of the dam [affects emisother very interesting thing they found was that the sions], because the concentration of methane gets higher reservoir was a sink of greenhouse gases. It was actually the lower you go in the reservoir.

If you have a lot of organic material from agriculture or consuming greenhouse gases – a lot of carbon dioxide – from from human sewage upstream, that “If you have a lot of organic material from agriculture or from human sewage will tend to make upstream, that will tend to make worse emissions than other factors.” worse emissions than other factors: other aquatic plants growing in the reservoirs which then the atmosphere. Whether that was just because there was a decay give fuel for – especially – methane generation; lots of lot of plankton growing at that time, that was consuming production of plankton; how much vegetation there is that CO2, I don’t know.

There certainly are emissions. But we can expect there to originally gets flooded; the [amount] of ice cover where reservoirs are [frozen] for part of the year, how windy is it. The be a lot less than in the tropics and a lot less than fossil fuels. emissions vary between night and day, in different seasons. There may be some U.S. reservoirs that are much worse than There are a lot of complicated factors, and a lot of science that, I think especially in the Southeast of the United States, where you have more tropical conditions and very [many] needs to be done to quantify it adequately.

The emissions have two main sources. There are bubbles of the country’s large reservoirs. Those emissions could be that rise from the bottom of the reservoir, and then there is pretty high.

You may know, [there is a] big controversy about removing the diffusion of the gasses – especially carbon dioxide – into the atmosphere from the reservoir surface. The methane the dams in the Klamath Valley [in Oregon and California]. is produced at the bottom of the reservoir by the bacteria The power company is saying “We need to keep them for that are decomposing organic matter. As those bubbles of climate reasons,” but the water quality in a couple of those methane rise toward the top, most of them are oxidized, so reservoirs is horrendous, so there may be quite a large methane production. the methane is given out as CO2.

So what’s the global impact? There are striking figures, Where you have turbines and spillways relatively deep in the reservoir, the water emitted will be very rich in methane. according to the recent estimate from a Brazilian research When you suddenly release methane-rich water, it’s just like institute called the Brazilian Space Research Institute. They [made a] very rough calculation with very inadequate data, opening a can of Coke; the dissolved gases are given off.

Quantifying emissions over time is difficult. You often get but it’s the best we have so far. They estimated that 104 a very high initial pulse when you flood and create the res- million tons of methane are given out by dams worldwide. ervoir; and then you get the emissions that will continue for Most is from dams in Brazil, China and India, because they the life of the reservoir. There is contradictory evidence from have so many dams, and because of the tropical climate – different reservoirs [on these continued emissions]. In some especially in Brazil and India. That 104 million tons is 23 reservoirs they seem to decline over time, in other reservoirs percent of human-caused methane. Methane is the second the methane seems to increase over time. It’s not really known most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide in terms of its impact on climate change. That is 45 percent of the how to model that over a period of 20, 50 or 100 years.

W

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

45

Photo by Beth Byrne

“[It has been] estimated that 104 million tons of methane are given out by dams worldwide, mostly by dams in Brazil, China and India.” global warming impact caused by reservoirs, which is high.

What does it mean, 104 million tons of methane? Convert that to CO2, the carbon dioxide equivalent. The standard way of doing that is to use a 100-year factor, which now is calculated 25 times worse. So then 104 million tons of methane will equal 2.6 billion tons of CO2 equivalent. By comparison,

Q&A

Q: Watching the turbines of, say, Shasta Dam or the diversion dams at Red Bluff, I wonder if that is impacting the drinking water that is pulled off by the municipalities?

McCully: I’m not an expert on that. I know there is a problem with fish, because there is a thing called gas bubble disease, which happens because of the pressure change [caused by] the turbines and the nitrogen bubbles in the fish. The reservoirs themselves affect drinking water quality because the reservoir acts as sort of a big chemical broth, and the chemical [situations] in a reservoir are different than in a river. Water released downstream of dams is often of poor quality. But it’s not so much the turbines that are the problem; it’s the stagnant water in the reservoir.

Q: Is government or industrial development mostly building dams around the world?

McCully: Historically, the really big projects and the really problematic projects – with mass displacement of people and so on – have been government schemes, these big multipurpose projects for electricity, floodcontrol, and so on. Increasingly, over the last 10 years or so, there’s been a big push worldwide to get private

46

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

emissions of fossil fuels are 27 billion tons and U.S. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel is 6 billion tons; U.S. CO2 emissions from coal is 2.1 billion tons. So maybe globally dams are emitting more than all the coal emissions from the U.S. and nearly 45 percent of all U.S. CO2 emissions now from fossil fuels. That’s over a 100-year life span. If you take the 20-year figure – 7.5 billion tons – then the emissions from dams are even greater than the U.S. fossil fuels. So globally it is a very significant impact – at least according to these recent Brazilian figures.

Now some good news. This has been happening recently to atmospheric methane concentrations and this is the only green house gas for which this is happening. Some nitrous oxide may be leveling out this last year, but methane concentrations in the atmosphere definitely have leveled out.

People like James Hansen who have inspected why this may be happening have suggested various reasons. One is that there is less methane being given off with wetlands being drained and so on. But it’s interesting when you look at the rate of large dam building. That [had] this peak and a decline, and the Brazilian scientists who came up with this figure on the global methane emissions from dams also propose that that may be the reason why atmospheric methane is leveling off. So the major factor may be because the rate of big dam building is declining. We can hope that continues. Ω This program was made possible by the generous support of The David and Lucile Packard Foundation and The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

investors more involved in hydropower. It hasn’t been terribly successfull for the hydro industry or the dam industry, because the economics for irrigation projects, are just horrible, and so they need big government subsidies. The same goes for flood control, because the investor cannot really get a benefit from reducing floods.

For hydropower, obviously, an investor can get income from sales of electricity, but hydropower is a very risky form of power generation. This issue of hydro-ecological risks – that you’re not going to get enough water – has become a big issue.

The industry has been more privatized. Before, when the state was building all these projects, they didn’t generate enough electricity and it didn’t really matter.

But private investors need to get their money back, so there hasn’t been as much private investment as had been hoped. But now there are hybrid public-private schemes, where the public sector is guaranteeing that the private sector will get its returns – so even if the project costs twice as much as it’s supposed to and generates half as much power, the investors will still get their money back.

But the public sector can only afford to subsidize so many of those schemes, so the big projects are still more public than anything else. Ω

Donor Honor Roll Thank you to our generous supporters who made donations to The Club during our fourth quarter, from April 1, 2007, through June 30, 2007 tax-deductible contributions in addition to membership dues, premium memberships, employer matching-gift programs, stock gifts, planned gifts and gifts of time through volunteering. To discuss giving to The Club in any way, please contact Oona Marti, director of development, at ( 4 1 5 ) 597-6714 or omarti@commonwealthclub.org.

LTH CLUB EA Individuals and organizations donating a O W minimum of $125 between April 1, 2007, and June 30, 2007, are listed below with total contributions for this period. Thank you to all of our supporters.

Individuals

Linda G. Kendall Heather M. Kitchen Dennis J. Loo Ruediger Naumann-Etienne Lloyd Paff Lisle W. & Roslyn Payne Stephen A. Privett, S.J. Dr. Bernard Ross Mrs. August H. Schilling Glen H. Schimelpfenig Suzanne Shaw Ann G. Skeet William & Sharon Smullin Robert B. Suhr Andrew K.C. Wong Josephine T. Wunderlich Jacques S. Yeager, Sr.

Hon. Bill & Jean Lane

$2,500 to $4,999 Mr. & Mrs. Stephen D. Bechtel, Jr. Mr. Joseph I. & Hon. Judith Epstein Berniece Patterson Hon. George P. Shultz & Charlotte Mailliard Shultz L. Jay & Gretchen Tenenbaum Hon. Richard Pivnicka & Hon. Barbara Pivnicka Don J. McGrath Barbara Z. Otto Amy McCombs Ajay Shah & Lata Krishnan

$1,000 to $2,499 Kathleen Budge Rolando & Marta Esteverena Steven Falk Dorothy & Saul L. Katz George & Karen McCown Tim Muller Skip & Frankie Rhodes Muriel M. & Wayne A. Robins Phil Schlein Jan B. Scholes Deborah G. Seymour Josephine Shuman Lucretia & John Sias Janet M. Sinnicks Ji Ing Soong

Rhonda A. Diaz-Caldewey & Jeffrey Caldewey Thomas J. Ferrari Mary E. Huss Nion T. McEvoy George A. Miller Dr. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall

$250 to $499 Caroline & Corwin Booth Gail & Jeff Clarke Thomas L. Davis Dr. George J. Elbaum & Mimi Jensen Dr. Carol A. Fleming, Ph.D. Dianne K. Fristrom Ken Hausman Maryon Davies Lewis Billy Manning Norma M. Walden

$125 to $249 Timothy D. Bolling Michael R. Cabak Stephen J. Carbonaro John & Gretchen Clatworthy Mr. & Mrs. Frederick K. Duhring Cathy A. Emison Margaret Flintroy Marjorie Gibson Chris Gruemer Christine Harris G. R. & Imogene M. Hilbers Howard A. Jacobs

E C O M MO

TH

L I F O R NI A

$5,000 to $9,999

$500 to $999

CA

Mona Geller Bob & Randi Fisher

F

$10,000 and over

Bob Sutis Dr. Colleen Wilcox Diane B. Wilsey John Yau

N

The Commonwealth Club of California is grateful to the following individuals, corporations and foundations for their donations. Your support, above and beyond membership dues and program fees, helps pay for more than half of The Club’s annual expenses, keeping the cost of membership within the reach of many who want to participate. This helps ensure a wide range of outstanding programs, new initiatives, Member-Led Forums, Town Hall meetings and many other exciting programs at The Club. The Club appreciates donations in any amount, and every gift helps support important Club activities.

There are many ways for you to support The Club – through

FO

Corporations & Foundations $50,000 and over California HealthCare Foundation The James Irvine Foundation The Travers Family Foundation The Wallace Alexander Gerbode Foundation

$25,000 to $49,999 Bank of America The California Wellness Foundation

$10,000 to $24,999 AAA of Northern California, Nevada & Utah The David and Lucile Packard Foundation

UND

0 ED 19

3

Richard & Rhoda Goldman Fund

$5,000 to $9,999 Ann and Gordon Getty Foundation Deloitte & Touche LLP Financial Times Golden Gate Petroleum & Bay Biodiesel Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation

$2,500 to $4,999 Casto, The Travel Company Greater Bay Bancorp Foundation Springcreek Foundation Reachnet International, Inc. USCL Corporation

$1,000 to $2,499 Anonymous Dominican University of California Robert and Alice Bridges Foundation Steven and Michele Kirsch Foundation

$250 to $999 Osorio Insurance Agency Publicis & Hal Riney The Parkinson’s Institute University Scholarship Foundation

Every effort has been made to list donors accurately. If your name or your organization’s name has been listed improperly in any way, or if you believe that a gift is missing from this list, please contact Director of Development Oona Marti at (415) 597-6714 or omarti@commonwealthclub.org. Tax-deductible contributions can be mailed to The Commonwealth Club of California at 595 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 (or use the envelope in this issue of the magazine), or you can make a secure donation online at commonwealthclub.org/donate. Thank you.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

47

OUT OF

CONTROL This nation has created a bipartisan mess by living beyond its means, and our panelists note that the problem will expand greatly in coming decades.

The solution, they argue, must also be bipartisan. Excerpt from “America’s Budget Crisis,” September 14, 2007.

DAVID M. WALKER Comptroller General of the United

States

ISABEL V. SAWHILL Senior Fellow of Economic Studies,

Brookings Institution

ALISON ACOSTA FRASER Director, Thomas A.

Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, the Heritage Foundation

ROBERT L. BIXBY Executive Director, the Concord

Coalition

TOM CAMPBELL D ean, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley – Moderator

Campbell: This morning’s news carried the story that the national debt is now in excess of $9 trillion. We’ve set a new record – a 57 percent increase in the national debt over the administration of the current president. Though the Congressional Budget Office is projecting that the annual budget deficit will be declining this year for the third time in a row to $158 billion, our panelists are here to talk about what they believe is an unsustainable long-term fiscal outlook – projecting a 10-year baseline deficit of $5.1 trillion.

Bixby: A lot of people who are running for president will be coming through California looking for your votes. We’re here to try to persuade you that one of the key criteria in assessing the seriousness of presidential candidates is whether they appreciate the magnitude of the challenges that are coming

48

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Ph

ot

o

by J

im

La

rk

in

up – the need for tradeoffs, and the advantages of acting sooner rather than later.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see there are problems on the horizon. Our nation is undergoing a dramatic demographic transformation to an older society against the backdrop of steadily rising health-care costs and steadily falling national savings. That is a very dangerous combination for the future health of the economy. Let me throw out just three facts to tee-up the discussion.

First, on the current budget situation, the three biggest federal entitlement programs are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. They comprise 42 percent of the federal budget; that is before the baby boomers begin to retire next year.

Second, over the next 25 years the percentage of the population aged 65 and over is projected to go from 12 percent to over 20 percent. That is going to put increased pressure on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which are already 42 percent of the federal budget. Third, health-care costs have traditionally risen faster than economic growth, so every year they take up more of the budget and a larger percentage of the economy. If health-care costs continue to grow at the same rate over the next 40 years as they have over the past 40 years, Medicare and Medicaid alone will take up as much of our nation’s resources as the entire federal budget does today – about 20 percent of the economy, or GDP. A change in course is going to require some very difficult choices on programs and federal taxes. The American people need to be a part of this conversation. Whether you’re left, right, liberal, Democrat, Republican, conservative, Independent or whatever, the numbers just don’t add up. It is a matter of arithmetic, not ideology.

a year. Therefore each American household currently has an implicit burden of $440,000.

This is not just a federal problem. GAO issued a report within the last year that shows that within the next 10 years, state and local governments are going to start facing escalating deficits primarily due to four reasons: Medicaid, underfunded pension plans, unfunded retiree health obligations for state and local workers, and additional infrastructure needs and deferred maintenance on infrastructure – bridges, streets,

Walker: We face a range of very serious sustainability challenges: fiscal, health care, energy, the environment, education, immigration, “In the last six years alone, the nation’s total and Iraq – just to name a few. Our curliabilities and unfunded commitments for [programs rent path is unsustainable. The fiscal such as] Social Security and Medicare ... have challenge overarches everything, and bad increased from $20 trillion to $50 trillion.” – Walker news flows downhill.

If the federal government has a fiscal problem, that’s going water sewer systems, etc. to affect state and local governments, the independent sector We’ve got to educate the and, ultimately, American families. public; we’ve got to make The budget composition has changed dramatically over the sure that the first three last 40 years. Forty years ago, 43 percent of the federal budget words of the Constitution was for defense and only 1 percent was for Medicare and come alive. We the people Medicaid. Last year, 20 percent was for defense and 19 percent are responsible and acwas for Medicare and Medicaid. Forty years ago Congress got countable for what the elected officials do or do not do. We to decide how two-thirds of the budget would be spent, last need to start making tough choices sooner rather than later. year it was 38 percent. Stated differently, 62 percent of the Time is working against us. The longer we wait the bigger budget is on autopilot. This cannot continue. the change is going to have to be, and the less transition time Short-term deficits have come down and some people we have to make it. think the problem is Iraq and Afghanistan and the global war It’s not just about numbers. It’s about values. It’s about on terrorism, [but] that’s not true. Last year, we spent about people, and for me it’s about my three grandchildren. They’re $100 billion in Iraq. That obviously doesn’t help, but our op- going to pay the price if elected officials don’t act. They’re too erating cash deficit was $434 billion. We could get out of Iraq young to vote. They don’t have a voice, so I’m their voice. tomorrow and it’s not going to come close to solving our problem. In fact we haven’t yet faced the tsunami of Social Security, Medicare to Gobble up More of Budget spending – the retirement of the The portion of the federal budget dedicated to paying Social Security and baby boom generation and escalatMedicare obligations is expected to grow significantly in the next couple ing health-care costs – that will start decades, and the Social Security trust fund could be exhausted by 2041, next year and build over time. according to a report by Brad Watson, a staff member of the U.S. House of In the last six years alone, the naRepresentatives’ Republican Study Committee. tion’s total liabilities and unfunded In a recent paper highlighting noteworthy items from the 2007 Social commitments for [programs such Security and Medicare Trustees Report, Watson notes: as] Social Security and Medicare – •• Social Security is projected to have $4.7 trillion (present value) in the difference between what we’ve unfunded obligations over the next 75 years. Medicare’s unfunded promised and the payroll taxes and obligation over that same time frame is a whopping $34.2 trillion. premiums we have to deliver on those promises – have increased from •• Combined spending for Medicare and Social Security will amount to $20 trillion to $50 trillion. Of the 17.6 percent of GDP in 2081. That figure “is close to the average $50 trillion, $32 trillion is Medicare, amount the federal government has collected in federal revenue $6.4 trillion is Social Security. Eight over the previous 40 years (18.2 percent of GDP),” Watson writes. trillion of the $32 trillion is the new •• The amount of federal income tax revenue that is dedicated to Medicare prescription drug bill. Fifty Social Security and Medicare will rise from 10 percent today to 49 trillion is $440,000 per American percent in 2030, 63 percent in 2040, and 93 percent in 2081. household. Median household income in America is less than $50,000 NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

49

Photos by Amanda Leung

It’s important to focus on the fact that there aren’t quick-fix solutions to this. [Cutting] waste, fraud and abuse or [relying on] our booming economy to get us out of this problem [will not work]. It is going to require bipartisan cooperation. This is, fundamentally, a moral issue. It’s about the legacy we leave to future generations. That’s what we’re deciding now.

“[One] choice is to ... keep on spending. If this were to happen, we would see deficits in the future as large, relatively speaking, ... as the entire federal budget today.” – Fraser In summary, this nation has four deficits: a budget deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a savings deficit and, worst of all, a leadership deficit. These deficits cross sectors and are a bipartisan problem. We need to get serious and recognize that if we want our future to be better than our past, we need to make some tough choices.

Sawhill: There are four reasons why deficits matter and why we all need to be concerned. The first is Dave’s three grandchildren and all the other younger generations. The second is exploding interest on the debt: $227 billion every year. That’s about $1,000 of your taxes that’s earmarked just for interest [payments], and it’s the fastest growing part of the budget by far. Third [is] our increasing dependence on foreigners. We are consuming more than we’re producing. We’re borrowing the difference from abroad, and they could withdraw their support at anytime. Fourth, we have a missed opportunity to

Q&A

Campbell: Is illegal immigration helping or hurting these issues? One might say illegal immigrants are a net positive because they pay the FICA tax that goes into the Social Security trust fund but don’t collect it.

Fraser: Immigration is a very, very emotional issue. When it comes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the estimates for immigration are already built into the numbers. Illegal immigrants don’t qualify for these benefits.

However, at the state and local level, they have a huge impact on schools, emergency rooms and other kinds of infrastructure.

Sawhill: Immigrants are a net benefit fiscally to the nation as a whole, but they can be a drain at the local level.

Campbell: Is the U.S. fiscal crisis made worse by the trade imbalance, as we sell less and buy more of what other people produce?

Walker: America as a whole is consuming more than it’s producing. And many Americans are spending more money than they make, following the bad example of their federal government – charging their credit cards, taking out home equity loans and leveraging their future. Yes, the trade deficit is a problem. And I’m concerned about the dollar. It has declined in value dramatically in the last year and yet our trade balance really hasn’t improved dramatically.

50

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Campbell: As the trade imbalance – the balance of payments – gets worse, will the United States have to pay a higher interest rate to attract foreigners to buy our debt?

Walker: There’s no question that probably the biggest risk we face is that foreign investors may decide – if we don’t get our act together – to diversify in order to spread risk, and we’ll have to pay higher interest rates, which will have a compounding effect.

Sawhill: When the government ran large deficits in the past, interest rates went up because the government was competing with the private sector for funds. But through this whole debt accumulation process, interest rates – long-term interest rates in particular – have stayed very low because we’re getting all this money from abroad. This is part of the termites in the woodwork; it’s what’s keeping the wolf from the door. We don’t know how long that will continue.

What people fail to understand is that even if interest rates aren’t going up because we’re borrowing from abroad, eventually we’re going to have to pay that money back. We are earmarking a chunk of our future economy, our future GDP, to pay the interest and dividends on the money we’re getting from foreigners. That’s going to undermine our domestic standard of living.

Campbell: A former treasury secretary made reference to a statement that he attributed to Dick Cheney: “Deficits don’t matter; Reagan proved that.” The analysis

“We are consuming more than we’re producing.

We are borrowing the difference from abroad, and they could withdraw their support at any time.” – Sawhill invest in the future. The nation’s future depends not only on the amount of debt that we’re accumulating but also on the kind of investments we make now – in education, health care, transportation, telecommunications and other infrastructure to help us stay competitive. So this lack of resources is doing double damage to the future.

What are the solutions? First, Social Security reform. I have three quick points about that. One, the average American is going to spend one-third of their adult years in retirement.

We can no longer afford that; we need to raise the retirement age. Two, almost three out of every four Americans retire before the age of 65. We need to encourage people to work longer. Three, Social Security was never meant to be more than just one leg of a three-legged stool. The other legs were to be employer pensions and individual savings. We need to encourage more individual savings. One way to do that would be to require personal accounts on top of Social Security. was based on the fact that we run up these deficits but interest rates don’t go up, so what’s the problem?

Fraser: The concern that I have is that if we don’t do anything, the deficits are going to grow to unprecedented levels and [while] we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, we do know it’s not going to be good.

Walker: I think Cheney was talking politically. Politically, in the short term, [deficits] haven’t mattered a lot. Economically, they clearly matter, long-term, and they can have an adverse effect on our national security if they undermine our economic growth. The administration now recognizes that long-range imbalance does matter. They’ve talked about doing something about it but they don’t have the political capital to get anything done. Second, what about the foreign policy implications? Remember what happened in 1957? The United States told England, You better not try to contest militarily [Gamal Abdel] Nasser’s taking over the Suez Canal because if you do we won’t continue to buy your debt, we won’t prop up the pound. Arguably, England is our strongest ally; that should tell us something.

Campbell: It was the cause of the fall of the government in England when the United States took that position.

Bixby: Last year we spent $227 billion on interest payments on the debt – 9 percent of the federal budget. That is about twice what we spent on Iraq and Afghanistan, and the same amount or more than we spent on the federal share of the

Medicaid program. So if deficits don’t matter, why are we paying $227 billion of taxpayers’ dollars [to service the debt]? Deficits do matter.

Campbell: Do Europe and Japan have a better grasp of these problems than we do?

Walker: The GAO has done work on this and we’re continuing to look at other countries to find out what lessons we can learn from them. A number of countries have similar challenges [to us]. A number of European countries have worse demographic challenges and much higher tax levels, so they don’t have as much flexibility on the revenue side. But at the same time, they are ahead of us in reforming their health-care and pension programs, and we can learn from their experience to determine the right way forward in America.

Campbell: What is it about these other countries that have allowed them to address these problems better than we have addressed them?

Walker: One, they’re not superpowers. Two, they don’t have the world’s reserve currency. Three, many of them have parliamentary systems where the government and the parliament are effectively one, so they have more of an ability to make tough choices and get things through.

And in some cases, they are on the verge of bankruptcy.

New Zealand was on the verge of bankruptcy, so they had to act, which they did, and they now have fiscal sustainability for 40-plus years. Ω

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

51

the woodwork. And those termites are going to reduce our standard of living in the future and weaken the nation in a way that may be invisible, very gradual and all the more dangerous for those reasons. Put differently, there are going to have to be higher taxes and lower benefits in our future, and any presidential candidate who tells you otherwise doesn’t deserve your support.

“A change in course is going to require some very difficult choices on programs and federal taxes.” – Bixby Second, health reform. The problem is not just Medicaid and Medicare; it’s the entire health-care system. Health-care costs are affecting not only government budgets but also employers and ordinary Americans. This is a huge topic and we can’t go into it in any detail in the brief time I have, but let me suggest the possible elements of a solution. One, a basic package of health care for everyone. Two, much more emphasis on paying for performance – for what works to improve our health – as opposed to an open-ended commitment to fund whatever consumers want. Three, more income[-based] government benefits and perhaps a cap on total government expenditures. Four, much more emphasis on prevention and coordination of care.

Finally, tax reform. Let me mention three options that need to be discussed. One, simplify the system – eliminate or reform existing deductions, credits and other preferences.

We spend $900 billion a year on these various preferences. We also have two parallel tax systems right now, a regular income tax system and an alternative minimum tax – that needs to be fixed. Two, do not extend all of the Bush tax cuts, particularly those that have gone to the most affluent among us. Analysis done at Brookings and elsewhere has shown rapidly growing inequality in U.S. society. The tax cuts didn’t cause that equality but they are exacerbating it. Three, add a new tax – maybe one that’s more based on consumption than income, such as a tax on energy. Every other advanced country has a value-added tax. [Moreover], in addition to the problems you’re hearing about today, we have a global warming problem. An energy tax would both deal with global warming and raise revenues for the federal government.

What happens if we fail to act? We could have an economic crisis. It would most likely happen because foreigners went on a strike against the dollar.

But we may not have a crisis. This may not be a case of the wolf at the door; this may be a case of the termites in

52

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Fraser: The United States has historically been a low-tax, low-spend but very high-growth nation. That’s one of the keys to our success, but the programs we have been talking about – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – are poised to change all of that as the baby boomers begin to retire. We all on the panel agree that there are no easy answers here but we can break down the choices into three categories.

The first choice is to do nothing, to keep on spending. If this were to happen, we would see deficits in the future as large, relatively speaking, as the entire federal budget today.

What would that mean if interest rates started to increase?

Just a very, very minor increase in interest rates, of one basis point, would cause spending to go off the chart. We would see a fiscal meltdown. No one is seriously proposing [that we do nothing and keep on spending] but unless we have real, substantive discussion by our leaders in Washington and our candidates, then that is the path that they’re tacitly endorsing for us, and that’s clearly unacceptable.

We’ve got two other choices. The second is to look at taxes. Historically taxes have been about 18.3 percent of the economy – right about where they are today. If Congress were to solve this problem solely through taxes, they would climb from 18 to 30 percent of the economy over the coming decades. All tax rates would have to nearly triple. That would pose problems for growth, wages and jobs. That’s obviously not going to happen – no one’s proposing it – but it gives you a feel for the magnitude of the problem.

The third choice is spending. Because it’s so politically difficult to talk about Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, I’m going to set them aside and return to the vision the founding fathers had for the federal government – and the functions that are constitutionally laid out. Maybe we ought to eliminate those [functions] that aren’t laid out in the Constitution? These are just hypothetical illustrations to help you think about it. I’m going to start with NASA. I love space exploration, but it’s not a function of the federal government.

If we eliminated NASA tomorrow the spending line would barely come down, so let’s add foreign aid and pork-barrel spending. The line comes down just a little bit more, but we still have a huge fiscal imbalance. In fact, if you were to eliminate the entire Department of Defense tomorrow – and defense is a core constitutional function – it would not solve this problem over the long term. It’s clear that we can’t just nip and tuck; we need to tackle Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Ω This program is part of The Charles and Louise Travers Ethics Series, underwritten by The Travers Family Foundation.

Great Minds on CD Get recordings of your favorite Commonwealth Club speakers. Club CDs also make great gifts!

Imagine if you could take home our world-class speakers and listen to them whenever and wherever you want. Or introduce a friend to The Commonwealth Club’s great programming with a gift of your favorite speaker. You can. Choose from hundreds of intelligent, provocative and sometimes controversial speakers, such as Dan Rather, Condoleezza Rice, Deepak Chopra, John Dean, Laura Tyson, and many more.

See a list of available programs at commonwealthclub.org/archive

The Commonwealth Club of California Meet interesting people.

Become one.

Dan Rather, 4.11.06 “What Is Happening to American Media?”

Michael Eric Dyson, 3.7.07 “Debating Race”

Amory Lovins, 12.4.06 “Winning the Oil Endgame”

Katie Couric, 6.17.06 “The Ounce that Saves a Life”

CDs are only $15 per copy (cost includes postage and handling) Order online: commonwealthclub.org/archive Order by mail: Indicate the name(s) of the speaker(s) and the date of the recording if possible. Send your check payable to: The Commonwealth Club of California, NOVEMBER 2007 N WE AL THCA53 595 Market St., 2nd THE Floor,COMMO San Francisco, 94105

WHAT DENMARK KNOWS Despite record economic growth, American workers are anxious about health care, declining real wages and increased risk. But Tyson argues that the Danes have balanced worker security with a vibrant economy. Excerpt from “The Quest for Economic Stability,” May 3, 2007.

LAURA TYSON Professor, Haas School of Business; Member, Brookings Institution Hamilton Project

T

he challenges the country faces are well reflected in the anxieties of the majority of Americans. Recent polls show that the majority of Americans are worried about reaching their economic goals; they are worried about whether their children will be better off or worse off than they are. These common anxieties are understandable and, to a significant extent, are totally justifiable.

I will start with the reality that we have had nearly six years of economic expansion in the United States. We have had record growth in the global economy for the last three years.

Yet many American families and workers are not sharing in the prosperity that is being created. Many American workers and families feel that they are subject to much more risk and are much less secure.

Economists like to draw a link between the rate of growth of productivity and the rate of growth of living standards. If you look across countries, and if you look over time within an individual country, there is quite a strong relationship between the rate of growth of productivity and the rate of growth of living standards. So the simple way to understand this is that how much we can afford to pay ourselves in a competitive world depends upon how productive we are.

Between 1947 and about the mid-1970s, growth in productivity and growth in median wages – the wage paid to the median worker – or growth in productivity and growth in median family incomes, tracked each other quite well in

54

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

the United States. But since about the mid-1970s, the gains in productivity have accelerated, but most of them have gone to the top income bracket. There has been a disconnect between the rate of growth of median family income and productivity.

The only exception to this disconnect occurred between about 1996 and 2001, when the U.S. enjoyed the longest and strongest economic expansion of the post-World War II period. But that was a very, very short period and it was a very, very strong expansion.

If you look at what has happened in expansion between 2001 and 2005, you see that median household income for the working population, adjusted for inflation, has fallen.

So we have had a period of prosperity and expansion in the U.S. economy when the median family, headed by a worker, has seen a fall, in adjusted inflation terms, of about $2,000 of income. That story appeared when aggregate national income had gone up by 5 percent. So you can see why a large number of Americans are saying, Wait a minute, what’s going on here? The U.S. economy seems to be doing well and the global economy is doing really well, but a number of Americans aren’t sharing that.

Greater volatility

T

he second point is that families are facing greater risk, for two reasons. One: The probability that a family will

Photo by Jim G

experience a drop in family income of 50 percent or more has doubled in the past 20 years. So the volatility of family income has gotten greater; the risk that you fall off a cliff has increased. This is very bizarre, because at the same time, there is what economists call a great moderation going on – that is, national income has become less volatile. So the economy is subject to less extreme ups and downs. That’s really good news.

We know how to control the ups and downs of the aggregate economy much better than we used to, but the individual family is subject to more individual risk of family income.

That has to do with the fact that everything is changing fast, so there is a lot of churn. People are facing more change in the kinds of jobs and the opportunities they have.

The second kind of greater risk that families are experiencing is that a lot of risks that used to be taken care of by employers or by society are being imposed on the individual. One need only think of health insurance and pension coverage.

One could also think of unemployment compensation.

On health insurance, we all know the situation. As the cost of health insurance premiums have increased, fewer firms are offering health insurance. Those firms that are offering insurance are imposing a larger burden of the cost on their workers or are cutting back on the coverage of family members or the things that are insured. Combine that with the fact that workers are very worried about the fact that they may have to change jobs because a firm or an industry in which they are currently employed is going to be slowing down.

If you leave a job with insurance, the probability that you are going to get another job with insurance is going down, because the percentage of employer-based health insurance coverage is going down.

[People] are concerned about pensions, because we have gone from defined benefit to defined contribution. Defined contribution is good in the sense that it potentially provides a higher rate of return; it provides more choice to the individual worker; it provides more ownership control. We talk a lot about the ownership society – people should own their

pension choices. But defined-contribution plans do have drawbacks: higher return always comes with higher risk, with the individual workers bearing the risk associated with higher returns.

A second thing is that most defined-contribution plans that employers offer are voluntary and, sadly, a very large percentage of workers do not sign up. One of the interesting things that [researchers] discovered was that if you do the default option of a worker when you sign on [with] a firm – the default option is that you are automatically signed up unless you ask to be dropped – most workers will stay enrolled. If you ask a worker who is newly employed, “Are you interested in signing up?” many of them won’t sign up. But pension security is a huge issue and, of course, that’s combined now with uncertainty about Social Security going forward. So there is a whole risk associated with retirement security.

The last form of risk is unemployment compensation.

The unemployment system that we developed in the United States has not been modernized to deal with the actuality of how long people are unemployed between jobs. If you look at the number of unemployed Americans at any point in time, only about a third of them are eligible for unemployment compensation. So we are not providing adequate income support to families in an unemployed situation.

So we have [these challenges]: not sharing in prosperity, bearing more risk from health insurance coverage lapses, bearing more risk on pension, bearing more risk from unemployment, and then, of course, there are the anxieties about globalization.

You can hear about these any night by turning on Lou Dobbs. Note that a recent survey of American workers said that 90 percent of them are worried about losing their jobs to off-shoring.

Off-shoring so far has been a relatively small factor in the U.S. economy, but the anxiety associated with it is huge. Even more telling, in terms of a number on a survey, is workers with at least a college education. Ask them, Do you think NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

55

Photo by Beth Bynre

“If you look at the number of unemployed Americans at any point in time, only about a third of them are eligible for unemployment compensation.” globalization is good for the U.S. economy? Now, this is the group most likely to benefit from globalization, because we can tell what globalization does for many high-skilled individuals: It creates a bigger market in which to play, it increases the demand for your skills. Only a third of workers with that skill set say globalization is good for the American economy. That means two-thirds say globalization is harming the American economy.

That is a very disturbing fact, because those anxieties – which I think in this case are misplaced to some extent – are going to feed very much into the policy agendas of what [political] candidates can do. What can they say about globalization if they are being told by the American worker, “We don’t think it’s working for us”?

It’s important to understand the real issues around globalization. First of all, labor’s share in national income has fallen in the U.S. and the other advanced industrial economies – the rich economies of Europe and Japan. It has been falling as a share of GDP on a trend basis for a long time. Right now, labor’s shares in national income in some countries are at historic lows, and in other countries they are near historic lows, and profits are at historic highs. So again, workers look at this and say, Somehow if there are benefits to globalization, the distribution of these benefits is going toward capital and away from labor. There is some basis for that concern.

Hollowing out the labor force

S

o there is some reason for the concern about wages. It’s gotten worse over time because of the effectiveness of technology to break up the supply chain into production all around the world. So basically, if you want to move your call center to India or the Philippines, [you can].

I just finished [teaching a] class on emerging markets, and last night I asked, “Who has a direct personal experience with

56

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

off-shoring and outsourcing?” One of the students, who works at Goldman Sachs, said, “We do these very sophisticated proposals for mergers and acquisitions, and frankly we have built a major capability to do this in India, using Indian talent.”

She said, “It’s great, because we work all day and then we go to sleep, and they work all night; then we get up and they send us back the proposal and frankly, they could do much more.” She said, “I can just see over time that much more of what we do in the research and document analysis – the preparation of a proposal – will be done there.”

Technology is allowing all of this to occur. Indeed, now in principle, any routine cognitive analytical service can be [outsourced]. Ask yourself if you do a routine cognitive analytical service. A tradable or outsourcable job is one that requires very little face-to-face interaction and one that is IT-intensive with IT-transmittable output.

There is a very good labor economist at Harvard, Larry Katz, who worked with us during the Clinton administration.

His work suggests that when you look at both information technology and IT-enabled globalization, you can draw the following conclusion: For certain kinds of skills and certain kinds of education, particularly Ph.D.-level education, the technology and globalization enhance the demand for such workers and enhance the returns to such workers. So, if you have those features, you can expect that so far things are working relatively in your favor. If you’re at the bottom of skill distribution and you are doing something very laborintensive that requires face-to-face interaction, you are pretty safe. So retail jobs, health-sector jobs, hair dressing, any personal service.

But that leaves a whole middle section, middle America, where essentially the technology and globalization are acting in such a way as to either, say, reduce the demand for American workers or make them compete with a much larger global supply of alternative suppliers. This is a big policy problem.

Let me talk first about policies to enhance the security of the work force, to deal with this insecurity problem I talked about and then talk a little bit about making the U.S. as competitive a place to do business as possible.

There are those who would say that if we try to do more to make the U.S. worker secure, we will fall quickly into the trap of Europe – or Europe as it has been in our imagination – which is traditional social welfare policies that protect individual jobs and make it very difficult for firms to hire and fire and reorganize around IT, and that therefore are a barrier to productivity and to growth. This [was] a big issue in the [recent] French campaign. If you listened to what the two candidates [were] debating, it’s this issue of how flexible to make the labor market or how much to protect the individual worker.

Danes mix security and flexibility

S

o we don’t want to go to the European social welfare, inflexible model. But on the other hand, what the U.S. has right now is a model were the risk falls pretty squarely on the individual. Society is doing very little to mitigate the

risk, and the risk is getting worse. Isn’t there someplace we can be in the middle? Let’s come up with some new policies, new ways of thinking about it.

One of the interesting models out there is a European model, and it’s the model of Denmark. The Danish model is called the “Flexicurity” model. [It is] flexible, but [it] also gives workers a lot of security.

What does that mean? Danish firms, unlike French, German or Italian firms, can lay people off as they see fit.

They don’t have any difference in the kind of freedom to lay off or reorganize from what U.S. firms can do. So the flexibility is certainly there; and indeed, about 20 percent of Danish workers lose their jobs each year, and most of them find new jobs.

Moreover, wage growth in Denmark has been strong, productivity growth has been strong, and they had a lot of success even with the high tax rate.

But I just want to talk about one part of what they do. They have said, We have got to emphasize two things. We have got to emphasize giving people adequate income support, health support and education support during periods of transition from one job to another. We don’t want that risk to fall on them. On the other hand, these people to whom we are giving all those supports have to bear responsibility for the change, in the sense of making the change.

So what have they done? They have very generous unemployment compensation.

[The United States] basically has only about a third of workers covered, and they are not covered for the full duration of their unemployment period. In Denmark, unemployment benefits can be available for as long as four years. They are the most generous to those at the bottom of the income distribution. The view is that if you are a low-skill worker or low-income family, you are going to need more income support than a high-skill, high-income family. But, in order to get this support, you have to go through the training, you have to go through interviewing for employment, and ultimately you have to accept certain kinds of employment offers or no longer be eligible for support.

How do they enforce this? This is where you get to the community level of Denmark. Basically you are working with your local labor organization, your local union, your local community, your firm in many respects, because the firms get involved in helping workers make this transition.

So [Denmark] is a place [that] combines income support with incentives for job seeking.

One of the interesting ideas that is now getting a lot of attention is this concept of wage insurance. We do have a small program of wage insurance in the United States. The concept here is quite similar in some ways to Flexicurity. If you lose a job in the United States through trade-related pressure, about 69 percent of those who lose a job like that are re-employed within a year. But about a third of them are employed at a wage that is substantially less than the wage they had.

So how about a little wage insurance? How does wage insurance work? It says, We are going to encourage you, if

Why Wages Drop

“W

hat’s going on in the past 20 years in a number of major parts of the world – India, China, the former Soviet Union – [is that they] have taken down the barriers between their economies and the global economy,” Tyson told The Commonwealth Club. Those actions have fueled the globalization of labor, which means those countries’ workers “are now effectively able to compete for many of the jobs that American workers previously did. There are just more people out there in the global labor market.

One estimate [is that] the global labor supply has doubled; by another estimate the global labor supply has quadrupled. It’s big.”

To draw lessons from that, Tyson adds, “you don’t have to go much beyond introductory economics to conclude that if a particular good or service, or in this case a particular supply of something – that is, labor – increases very substantially in a relatively short period of time, it’s likely to put downward pressure on the price of that thing. So we would expect downward pressure on the wages of workers, particularly in highwage countries. They have to compete for jobs with workers who are reasonably well qualified and in some cases very well qualified to do the same job.”

you are laid off, to look very aggressively for a job and if you have to take another job that pays a wage significantly lower than the one you had, we will provide you with a payment over two years, capped at a certain amount, to help you make that transition. And if you start out at a low-wage new job with the opportunity of training, during that period of two years, your income support will allow you to get trained, so you can move up again.

So wage insurance is a very interesting idea, and it’s one that you are hearing about a lot. The other one, obviously, that’s very important ... for the U.S. is health insurance, because you cannot in any way deal with the issues of what the unemployed or the worker in transition is going through from a risk point of view until you come up with serious ways to handle health coverage during transition. That’s not a problem in Denmark, because that’s part of the Danish system; it’s certainly a problem for us.

One thing we need to do is help workers deal with getting a larger share of the pie and with transition’s risk. And we need to think about how to make sure that we have a very strong economy at the national level so we have more pie, more output, to share. So there is the issue of how to share it and the issue of maintaining and even strengthening our global position. Ω This program was made possible by the generous support of BANK of the WEST. NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

57

TwoveteranactorsunderwentachangeinlifewhentheyboughtanoldhouseinItaly.Anddidwe mention the food? Excerpt from “Living in a Foreign Language,” July 25, 2007.

MICHAEL TUCKER A ctor; Author, Living in a Foreign Language

JILL EIKENBERRY Actor In conversation with BARBARA OTTO Otto: There was something that, almost immediately, both of you, with very different perspectives, saw in this 350-year-old rustico, which is a home where migrant workers on the farm used to sleep. What did it do for each of you?

Eikenberry: It’s kind of hard to articulate. I had been arguing with Mike for a long time that a house in Europe didn’t make any sense. We lived in Northern California at the time, 6,000 miles away. I thought we can go there, visit and stay in a nice hotel, but why would we want a house there? He was trying to convince me to buy a house in the Saint-Tropez area in the south of France. I think it had something to do with those women on the beach; but I didn’t get it. Then a friend said to him, Why the south of France? He thought for a minute and said, Because it’s so near Italy. Then –

58

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Tucker: I’m slow.

Eikenberry: Then he tried to convince me to buy a house in Italy, and I had the same feeling until we drove down this little road they call a strada bianca, a dirt road, and saw this house. It’s hard to describe, but it felt like home. It’s probably a combination of the way Umbria feels, which is not touristy really [but] a more pure region of Italy in many ways, and the food we’d just eaten and the people we’d met, but also [it was just] this magical place.

Tucker: I’d promised Jill that we wouldn’t buy a house. When I first laid eyes on this house, we came down this road and I saw this place: it was tiny. We’ve added to it and it’s still tiny.

But the original house that we saw was well under 1,000 square feet, the whole house. I loved that. I thought, This is going to be very simple; there’s not a lot to take care of. It is a beautiful house; it’s 350 years old, two bedrooms upstairs, two rooms downstairs. In the old days, in the Middle Ages, when they built this house and used it as a farm workers’ cottage, the animals – the cows and the sheep and the goats – would live on the first floor and people would live on the second floor, being warmed by the body heat of the animals. That appealed to me.

Photo by Darren Barefoot

Italian love affair

Then I saw what looked like a little house, just off the kitchen entrance. It turned out that it is an oven, al forno, forno a legna – a legno means a wood-burning oven – that was there before there was a house, so the early 1600s. The women would bake the bread there for the whole community, in our oven. I asked the guy who owned the house, I said, Do you still use it? Indeed, they did, and indeed we do. I can’t tell you what it feels like to cook in that thing. I say in the book, when we went back home and we were tossing this over – Will we really do this? – I dreamt about this oven. I couldn’t get this oven out of my mind. That’s what did it for me.

Otto: You mention the remodeling, the amplificazione.

For most of us here, remodeling is generally as a traumatic experience. I could only imagine that’s even worse in Italy.

Can you talk a little bit about what that was like?

Tucker: We had a wonderful time. When we bought the house we bought the approved plan; we did not have to go through the agonizing bureaucracy of getting plans approved.

That had been done; that was a big thing. It’s very difficult to build in this area because we’re surrounded by miles and miles of olive groves with some of the great olives of the world.

Probably the best oil in the world is made in this region.

But we had the plans and we met an architect who had drawn up the plans for the former owner. The architect is an ex-pat also; he’s German. He’s a wonderful fellow; he’s worked here, he’s worked in Germany, he’s worked a lot in Italy. He and his wife live up the road. He said, “If you build in Italy, it’s a very good idea to have a German architect.”

Indeed that was true, because the Germans have a much more rigid sense of time than the Italians – or different sense of time, shall we say.

Otto: Michael, you’re the cook in the family. I think it’s safe to assume you didn’t have an Italian grandmother teaching you while you were growing up.

Tucker: You reminded me of a story. We worked years ago on an Italian film and we were over there for about six months altogether. The director was Lina Wertmüller. About halfway through this job – Lina’s quite insane – she turned to me, she grabbed me by the shoulders and she said, “Michi, tu sei italiano” – You are Italian. I said, “Well, actually…” She said, “No, no, no. Not you, I don’t mean you, but your mother and your father.” I said, “No, actually…” She said, “No, no. I don’t mean your mother and your father, but your grandmother.

Your grandmother was Italian. I know.” I said, “Lina, my grandmother was a Lithuanian Jew.” She thought for a long time and said, “Your grandmother was lying to you.”

Anyway, the cooking thing. I cooked when I was a kid; I was always into it. When I got to college, out of self-preservation, I didn’t want to eat in the student dining hall so I learned how to cook. I started with pasta, because that’s all we could afford. My cooking life had gotten more and more complicated and very intricate and very French, and then it

Umbrian Time Travel Tucker: The first day [when we return to Italy] we go to our favorite restaurant, which is our neighborhood place. It’s a wonderful family-owned restaurant. It’s been there for 50 years; they had the same menu 50 years ago and they will have the same menu 50 years from now. Nothing changes, which is great.

We’ll be with friends, we’ll have our lunch and we’ll be talking and drinking some wine. At a certain point I’ll gesture for the check, and everyone will smile and pour a bit more wine. Half an hour later, I’ll do the international symbol for “Check, please,” and everyone will smile and ask if we want a little grappa. The check doesn’t come, and the check doesn’t come.

Finally, I realize that what they’re telling me is that there’s no place that I should be that’s better than where I am right now.

The first time we came back [to the States from Italy], we went to a Chinese restaurant in Mill Valley.

It was a favorite of ours, and we hadn’t had any Asian food for a long time. We said, Let’s go get lunch at Jennie Low’s. We went in and 20 minutes later we were standing out on the sidewalk. I said, What the hell was that? It’s just different.

started heading down the other side. Italy has simplified me completely: I’m not a terribly complicated cook anymore, but I’m really rigorous about the ingredients. That’s pretty much everything.

Eikenberry: He’s a really, really good cook, and in Italy he’s a great cook. It’s the ingredients; they’re so fresh.

Otto: From the book, you get a description of your life there [in Italy], just going from one indulgent meal to the next.

Tell me, is that so, or not?

Tucker: It’s quite so. Lunch is a big thing; the entire country stops for lunch. If you walk into a store or, say, to the post office, at ten minutes to one, people are very, very nervous that you might say, Can I try something on? Because at one o’clock, they’re going to lunch; it doesn’t matter. Lunch is very important. Whatever we would have done with our morning, be it some exercise or some shopping we had to do, we usually have lunch with friends, either at the house or at one of our favorite restaurants. And it goes on for about three hours.

Eikenberry: And we sit and talk. What we talk about— Tucker: Is dinner. Yeah, it’s one indulgent meal after the other. But, you know, we don’t gain a lot of weight over there and I think it has to do with taking your time. I don’t think you eat more food in a three-hour meal, or a two-andNOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

59

Photo by Amanda Leung

Otto: From your book, it seems like it might be impossible to get a bad meal in Italy. Is that true or not? Also, if you could just share briefly that description of Miss Tunisia selling pork sandwiches at a truck stop.

“I’m not the foodie in the family, but I became one over there.” – Eikenberry a-half-hour meal. You just eat it over more spaced-out time.

There’s no rush.

Eikenberry: It has something to do with the freshness. There aren’t preservatives and all that stuff that adds to the fattening element.

Otto: Would you like to describe for the audience the shopping experience for groceries in Italy? I know we pride ourselves on our own locally grown organic [groceries], but I think probably your experience in Italy has topped that.

Tucker: They have a word in Italy, nostrano. It comes from the word our, nostro, but it means our local thing. I’ll go down into town to buy something for breakfast or for lunch and there’ll be a sign on the local alimentari, grocery store, that’ll say, Ricotta Nostrana. Now that means that this ricotta has just been made and is warm. When you see that sign you go and you get some, and you run home and you eat it. The whole idea – I know there is a lot of this in Northern California and it’s one of the most wonderful things about Northern California – [is] you eat what grows where you can see it.

And the wine is grown within sight of where the food grows.

They’ve been drinking this wine with this food for 2,000 years; that’s why it goes down so well.

I came home [to the States] and shopped at one of our larger, organic grocery stores. I looked at the stuff and said, “Well, it may be organic and it may be artisinal, but it is damn well not fresh. This has been on a truck for three weeks, and once you see fresh, you can tell the difference.”

Eikenberry: We also have an orto, a vegetable garden. That’s just such a wonderful thing: Go out every morning and see what’s fresh and see what you want to have for lunch or dinner. I’m not the foodie in the family, but I become one over there, because you can’t wait to see what’s up in the garden.

60

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

Tucker: I think you can get a bad meal in Italy in highly touristy areas. We were sitting in Rome one day in some little trattoria in some neighborhood, and a family of Americans was sitting next to us. One of the kids turned to his mother and said, “We ate Italian food last night.” In restaurants that serve tourists constantly, like that place, you can probably get a bad meal. I recommend you just head out to the country; you cannot get a bad meal in the country.

Along what used to be the highway – it’s called the Via Flaminia and it’s the same Via Flaminia that the Romans built to get from Rome to Rimini; it now runs alongside the highway – trucks pull off, and maybe every couple of miles you’ll see this [particular] truck, which is really a food stand. Its specialty is called porchetta truck. Porchetta is roasted pork, and they make sandwiches out of it. They slice the porchetta and pile it on a roll, with just a little salt and pepper on top. It’s as delicious a sandwich as you have ever eaten.

Eikenberry: Melts in your mouth.

Otto: But, Miss Tunisia?

Tucker: Oh. So there’s this one stand; all the trucks are parked there, for a mile down the highway, and all of these guys are lined up. There’s this very attractive woman from Tunisia who has a very low-cut tank top and a thing in her belly button.

She flirts with all the guys, and is slicing the pork, you know.

She’s our favorite.

Otto: What is it you think that Americans do “wrong” when it comes to cooking and eating?

Tucker: We Americans eat too fast. We eat on the go, which is not healthy. Then I think we experiment too much. Our palates are jaded and we need all these very, very vibrant tastes, and the fact is, you don’t if you have good stuff.

Eikenberry: Americans is kind of broad.

Tucker: Yeah. People in this area eat very well.

Eikenberry: We’ve just been in the Midwest on the book tour and a lot of times at a great restaurant in the Midwest – not to disparage the Midwest; I’m from there – the sauces are so complicated, they have so many things in them, that you can’t really taste anything anymore. That’s become great food [there]; the more complicated the better. Ω This program was made possible by the generous support of Goldman, Sachs & Co.

Candidates for the 2008 Commonwealth Club Board of Governors Please return the ballot on page 61 by 5 p.m., Thursday, November 15, 2007.

Nominations for the Board of Governors Officers, 2008 William F. Adams – Secretary Adams is the principal of William F. Adams Law Offices in Pleasanton, California. He was formerly a partner and chair of Feldman, Waldman & Kline’s employment law practice. Awards and honors include a Bar Association of San Francisco Champion of Justice Award and a U.S. Department of Labor Excellence in Leadership Award.

Mary B. Cranston – Chair

Anna W. M. Mok – Treasurer Mok is a strategic clients partner at Deloitte & Touche LLP and works with clients in financial services, life sciences and high technology. She holds leadership roles in various Deloitte initiatives including Life Sciences, Pacific Rim, and Diversity and Inclusion. Mok was the first Chinese-American woman to be promoted to partner at Deloitte & Touche.

Cranston has served as the chair of Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP since 1999. Prior to that she was chair of the firm’s Litigation Department. She sits on the Boards of Trustees of Stanford University, the San Francisco Ballet, GrafTech International and the Bay Area Council. She also served as chair of the Stanford Law School Board of Visitors in 2001.

Nominations for the Board of Governors, 2008-2010 Joseph Epstein Epstein is the president of Sierra Steel Trading L.L.C. In 1970 he founded Sierra Pacific Steel. The company was sold in 1998 to Metals USA. He is on the Board of Advisors of the Oakland Boys and Girls Club, and the Board of Advisors of the Goldman School of Public Policy.

Rolando Esteverena Since arriving in the U.S. in 1966, Esteverena has held positions in engineering, marketing and management. Additionally, he co-founded and/or served as CEO in five high technology start-up businesses. He served on the Board of Directors of the Good Samaritan Hospital and other organizations.

Jeff Farber Farber is CEO of the Koret Foundation. His business experience ranges from 25 years in executive positions at Bank of America to vice chairman and COO of Shorenstein Realty Services to partner of the Quellos Group, a financial services boutique.

Karen Francis Francis was the chairman and CEO of full-service advertising and marketing agency Publicis & Hal Riney. She was previously vice president of Ford Motor Co. and president and CEO of ConsumerConnect. She has also held positions at General Motors, Bain & Company, and Procter & Gamble.

Amy Gershoni Gershoni is president of Gershoni : A Creative Agency. She was the first president of INFORUM and is the youngest person on The Club’s Board of Governors. Gershoni serves clients including Nike, The Patron Spirits Company, Apple Computers, The BBC and many more.

James C. Hormel Hormel, founder of Equidex, Inc., served as U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg, alternate representative to the 51st U.N. General Assembly, and was a member of the U.N. Human Rights Commission. He is on the boards of Swarthmore College, the San Francisco Symphony, the San Francisco Foundation, People For the American Way, and Grace Cathedral.

L.W. Lane Jr. Lane was chairman of Lane Publishing Co., and is former publisher of Sunset Magazine. He was ambassador to Australia and Nauru, and was chair of the President’s Commission on the Centennial of National Parks.

Marcela Medina Medina is vice-president and general manager of Univision 14 – KDTV and TeleFutura 66 – KFSF. Previously, Medina was general manager of KLUZ-TV/Univision 41, in the Albuquerque/Santa Fe Designated Market Area. Before joining KLUZ, Ms. Medina was Network Sales Manager for Telemundo Network in Los Angeles..

Stephen Privett Privett is president of the University of San Francisco. He previously served as provost and academic vice president at Santa Clara University. He serves on the boards of Seattle University, the Schools of the Sacred Heart, the Association of Catholic Colleges and Universities, the American Council on Education, Public Architecture and the Fromm Institute.

Skip Rhodes Rhodes is president of Skip Rhodes & Associates. Previously he spent 46 years with Chevron as manager of corporate global community involvement. He currently serves on the Boards of the World Affairs Council, the Yosemite Fund and the Oakland Zoo Foundation.

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

61

Ray Taliaferro

Colleen Wilcox

Taliaferro is a broadcaster with KGO-ABC radio/tv. He has served on many city commissions involving the arts over the last 30 years.

He is past president of the Leukemia Society, and has co-hosted the yearly Leukemia Curathon for 27 years.

Wilcox was county superintendent of schools for Santa Clara County for 14 years. She was also a superintendent in the Chicago area, served in the Peace Corps, authored numerous professional articles, and has authored and illustrated two children’s books.

L. Jay Tenenbaum Tenenbaum was a partner and head of Trading & Arbitrage at Goldman Sachs & Co. He has served on the boards of the San Francisco Ballet, KQED and the Stern Grove Festival, and has been San Francisco’s Deputy Chief of Protocol.

Nominations for the Board of Governors, 2008 Jack Cortis

Jacquelyn Hadley

Cortis is the Northern California regional president of BNY Mellon Wealth Management. Since joining BNY Mellon Wealth Management in 1994 he has held management positions in California and Washington. Prior to returning to San Francisco in 2006, he was President for BNY Mellon Wealth Management in Washington.

Hadley, former senior vice president for Levi Strauss, has a 30-year career building globally regarded brands, including Avon and Calvin Klein. She serves on the board of Goodwill of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin and is completing a consulting project with The Club as part of the Harvard Business School Alumni Community Partners volunteer team.

Kerry Curtis

Howard Leach

Curtis is professor emeritus at Golden Gate University and chair of The Club’s Environment & Natural Resources Member-led Forum. Kerry was at Bank of America for 20 years. He has lived in Orinda with his wife Lynn since 1972.

Leach is a business executive and private investor. He is president of Leach Capital, LLC, San Francisco, and Foley Timber & Land Company, Perry, Florida. Leach served as the United States Ambassador to France from 2001 to 2005

Timothy Draper Draper is the founder and a managing director of Draper Fisher Jurvetson. On behalf of DFJ, Draper serves on many boards. He founded or co-founded DFJ EPlanet (global), Draper Fisher Jurvetson Gotham, Zone Ventures, Wasatch Ventures, Draper Atlantic, Draper Triangle, Timberline Ventures, Polaris Fund, DFJ Frontier and DFJ Dragon.

Please detatch here

The Commonwealth Club of California BALLOT FOR BOARD OF GOVERNORS AND 2008 CLUB OFFICERS POLLS CLOSE AT 5 P.M., THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2007 INSTRUCTIONS: Mark an “x” in the space next to the name of the persons for whom you wish to vote. Vote for as many candidates as you wish. For write-in candidates, please print the name on a separate sheet of paper. Only members of The Commonwealth Club of California are entitled to vote.

Clip out the ballot, insert in an envelope with your signature and return address on the upper left corner, and mail to: Ross Lawley The Commonwealth Club of California 595 Market Street, 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105

62

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Officers: One-year terms ending December 31, 2008 • Select 3

William F. Adams................................  Anna W. M. Mok................................  Mary B. Cranston...............................  Governors: Three-year terms ending December 31, 2010 • Select 13

Joseph Epstein.....................................  Rolando Esteverena.............................  Jeff Farber............................................  Karen Francis......................................  Amy Gershoni.....................................  James C. Hormel.................................  L.W. Lane Jr........................................ 

Marcela Medina..................................  Stephen Privett....................................  Skip Rhodes........................................  Ray Taliaferro......................................  L. Jay Tenenbaum................................  Colleen Wilcox.................................... 

Governors: One-year terms ending December 31, 2008 • Select 5

Jack Cortis..........................................  Jacquelyn Hadley................................  Kerry Curtis........................................  Howard Leach.....................................  Timothy Draper.................................. 

NOVEMBER 2007

LETTERS STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP Publication title: The Commonwealth. ISSN: 0010-3349.

Filing date: October 1, 2007. Issue Frequency: Semimonthly. Number of issues published annually: 23.

Annual subscription price: $34. Location of office of publication: 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Location of office of general business office: 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105.

Name and address of Publisher: The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Editor: John Zipperer, Commonwealth Club, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105.

Managing Editor: Amanda Leung, Commonwealth Club, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105.

Owner: The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Known bondholders, mortgages and other security holders: None.

EXTENT AND NATURE OF CIRCULATION Avg. No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months: Total number of copies (net press run): 15,048. Paid/Requested Outside County Subscriptions: 13,667. Paid In-County Subscriptions: None. Sales Through Dealers & Carriers: None. Other Classes Mailed Through USPS: None. Total Paid and/or Requested Circulation: 13,667. Free Distribution by Mail: None.

Free Distribution Outside the Mail: 1,281. Total Free Distribution: 1,281. Total Distribution: 14,948. Copies not Distributed: 100. Total: 15,048. Percent paid and/or requested circulation: 91.43 percent. No. Copies Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date (October 1, 2006): Total number of copies (net press run): 14,420.

Paid/Requested Outside County Subscriptions: 13,320.

Paid In-County Subscriptions: None. Sales Through Dealers and Carriers: None. Other Classes Mailed Through USPS: None. Total Paid and/or Requested Circulation: 13,320. Free Distribution by Mail: None Free Distribution Outside the Mail: 1,000. Total Free Distribution: 1,000. Total Distribution: 14,820. Copies not Distributed: 100. Total: 14,420. Percent paid and/or requested circulation: 93.02 percent. I certify that the statements above are correct and complete.

John Zipperer, Editorial Director, October 1, 2007.

The Commonwealth (ISSN 0010-3349) is published monthly (12 times a year) by The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105-2805.

PERIODICALS POSTAGE PAID at San Francisco, CA. Subscription rate $34 per year included in annual membership dues.

POSTMASTER: Send address changes to The Commonwealth, The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105-2805.

Printed on recycled paper using soy-based ink.

Published on the 1st and 15th of every month in magazine format. Copyright © 2007 The Commonwealth Club of California. Tel: (415) 597-6700 Fax: (415) 597-6729 E-mail: club@ commonwealthclub.org EDITORIAL POLICY FOR PROGRAM TRANSCRIPTS: The Commonwealth magazine seeks to cover a range of programs in each issue. Program transcripts and question and answer sessions are routinely condensed due to space limitations. Hear full-length recordings of events online at commonwealthclub.org or contact Club offices to order a compact disc.

THE CLUB IN THE MERCURY NEWS: The San Jose Mercury News frequently includes an excerpt of a recent Commonwealth Club program as part of the Citizen’s Education Project.

The Best Ally Is a Free Press [Dr. Gloria C. Duffy’s September 2007 InSight column] “Where Have All the Journalists Gone?” with its “I am in Russia” setting prompts me to pass along a note I sent to San Francisco Chronicle reporter Tom Abate a while after his biotechnology coverage ended (in 2003): “.... It’s been over a year since BioScope ended. The coverage of BIO 2004 reminds me of how much I miss your regular report. ... I have wanted to send you a thank you note, and strangely the passing of Ronald Reagan reminds me of a way.

“After the collapse of Russia, one [claim] for our success was that Reagan had outspent them. It also provided an excuse for the deficit. I mostly bought that explanation. Seemed like that was the level at which Reagan could understand things. “... My career was the design of MRI scanners (17 years for UCSF and seven for Toshiba). ... At one radio design conference, there was an ex-Cold Warrior who had designed secure communications or over-the-horizon radars (I’ll never know which). His comment was, “We out-engineered them.” It was not just spending; we built real weapons that the Russians knew worked.

“Another side commentary at the conference described a fleet of Russian bombers parked on an island just across the Bering Strait from Alaska. After the Russian collapse, we learned that they were empty air frames, [with] no engines, no aviation controls or electronics. My thought was if this is an unintentional Potemkin village, it means the Russians knew that some fraction of their weapons were nonfunctional due to corruption in the military and industry. They also knew we had a much smaller fraction, if any.

“Why are we better? Because journalists in our open media root out a lot if not all of that corruption even from the secret operations! As much as conservatives deride the “liberal”

media interference with industry, they should thank you for helping beat the Russians. (We will hope to beat the Enrons, too.)”

Precisely the watchdog and Soviet corruption aspects of your commentary. Occasional notes like this and subscribing to two newspapers are my small contribution to keeping newspapers viable.

Lawrence E. Crooks Richmond, CA Questioning Admiral Fallon I wanted to express my disappointment with the questions asked of the admiral at the conclusion of his presentation.

It is not uncommon for the questioner to summarize the sense of the audiences questions – particularly when, as in this case, there were many.

However, I find it difficult to believe that the subject of the talk, principally how we are doing in Iraq – a burning issue for most people – did not generate far more penetrating questions than the ones asked. They were, in a word, feckless, and the answers to them were, in kind, superficial.

I do not fault the admiral for characterizing problems or failures as “challenges,” or that the morale of the troops is “great” and they are doing a wonderful job.

But clearly more insightful questions could have generated more informative responses.

I’ll bet the “real” questions were of that kind.

Victor Althouse Los Altos, CA The Commonwealth magazine welcomes letters to the editor. Include your name and address. Letters may be edited for length and clarity. feedback@commonwealthclub.org Letters, The Commonwealth Club 595 Market St., 2nd Floor San Francisco, CA 94105

NOVEMBER 2007

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

63

Photo by Amanda Leung

INSIGHT

A Legacy of People

DR. GLORIA C. DUFFY President and CEO

Marshall Shulman

A

Ambassador Marshall Shulman was the founding director of Columbia University’s Harriman Institute. A decorated veteran of World War II, he served in both the Truman and Carter administrations. He passed away in July 2007. The following is taken from Gloria Duffy’s comments at his memorial service at Columbia University on September 10, 2007.

mentor is a type of second parent; a parent in one’s profession, as it were. To paraphrase Margaret Mead, another wise and now-departed Columbia professor, mentors ensure cultural transmission from one generation in a profession to the next – of knowledge and values, of goals and standards of behavior.

I was lucky to have Marshall as the most important early mentor in my work. He was a mentor who never had to be asked for help.

Instead, an invisible hand seemed to be working behind the scenes on one’s behalf. Marshall had a deep interest in helping others and an intuitive sense of what assistance was needed. He listened, observed, and then just the right resource would mysteriously appear.

Marshall left those of us he mentored with such important lessons, both for our professional work and for life in general.

He offered us knowledge and impelled us to put that knowledge to work for public service. For Marshall, it was not sufficient just to understand our field. He communicated the importance of doing something – through teaching, research, government work, tracktwo diplomacy – to address the dramatically dangerous problems, such as the U.S.-Soviet standoff and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, that confronted our society.

Marshall taught the importance of balance in dealing with the Soviet Union and, later, Russia. At the State Department during both the Truman and Carter years, Marshall cautioned that the U.S. should not lose perspective on our most important goals – such as minimizing the danger of nuclear war – by overreacting to the minor incidents in our relations with the USSR. This insight about balance and perspective is well to keep in mind today as we contemplate a wealthier and more assertive Russia.

Marshall was a strong yet gentle person. He treated everyone with respect. He taught by example that one can be an effective leader while maintaining civility.

I once asked Marshall what he considered to be the most

64

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

NOVEMBER 2007

important factor in his own development. He said it was the unquestioning love and support of his mother, which created a sense of security that supported and nourished him throughout his life. He passed on that love and support to his students and colleagues.

Those who knew what a wonderful store of knowledge and history was inside Marshall’s mind sometimes regret that he did not set it down in more books and articles. That is because in partnership with his wife Colette, Marshall invested his time in people. I remember the first time I rode up to Sherman for the weekend with the two of them, with their cat “dorogaya” clinging to the top of the front seat of their green Dodge sedan and the conversation roaming across politics and foreign policy. To me, this was utterly charming; I bathed in the knowledge and warmth both Marshall and Colette shared so generously. Time and again, Marshall lingered in conversation with his students and other guests in Sherman, while a manuscript awaited his attention up the hill in his study.

But through the extraordinary amount of time and attention he gave to people, Marshall multiplied his impact. The books we have written, the government work we have done, the younger people and general public we have educated, the NGOs we’ve supported – all of this is an extension of Marshall’s work.

A couple of weeks ago, at the 80th birthday party of yet another wise elder, Bill Perry, I expressed my sadness at Marshall’s passing, and about the aging and death of other older mentors and friends.

My friend Larry K. Smith, sitting beside me, quoted to me from Linda Pastan’s poem “The Last Uncle”: The last uncle is pushing off In his funeral skiff (the usual black limo) Having locked the doors behind him on a whole generation And look, we are the elders now With our torn scraps Of history, alone On the mapless shore Of this raw, new century Then Larry put his finger to my forehead and said, “You’re it,” meaning, It is our generation’s turn to be the elders.

Luckily that time has not yet fully arrived, as some of our wise elders are still with us. But when the time does come, our shore will not be “mapless.” Marshall’s wise and thorough mentorship has laid down a joyful and judicious path for us to follow. Ω Shulman photo courtesy of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University

Never miss out on a Commonwealth Club event again.

Sign up for The Club’s free weekly e-mail newsletters to get Commonwealth Club event information sent right to your inbox! Late-breaking events, changes to programs and other news from the nation’s premier public affairs forum are e-mailed directly to you.

To sign up, go to commonwealthclub.org and enter your name and e-mail address on the upper-left side of the page. To receive our INFORUM newsletter, go to commonwealthclub.org/INFORUM. To get Commonwealth Club event news that’s as fresh as possible, sign up today.

It’s fast and free.

The Commonwealth Club of California Meet interesting people. Become one.

Help extend our reach.

We hope you will consider making a special gift today to support The Commonwealth Club of California. Every gift adds to The Club’s ability to sustain our year-round programming.

Contributions from our members – above and beyond membership dues – provide invaluable support for Club activities.

Photo by Paul Eric Felder

Donations help The Club remain nimble in our response to community needs and interests, as with recent panels on the war in Iraq and programs looking at ballot measures and other issues surrounding recent elections in California. And The Club continues to expand our programming and areas of interest, as with our new public policy project to examine K-12 education in California.

We are able to provide such educational opportunities to the community in large part thanks to the generous support of our members. Please consider making a generous gift to The Club today.

EA

LTH CLUB O

E C O M MO

CA

TH

L I F O R NI A

commonwealthclub.org

W

F

The Commonwealth Club of California Meet interesting people. Become one.

N

To make a gift, please contact The Club’s Development Office using the information provided below: Development Office The Commonwealth Club of California 595 Market Street, 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 Phone (415) 597-6714, Fax (415) 597-6729

FO

UND

0 ED 19

3

Commonwealth Club Travel Informed Travel for the Discerning Mind

WHITE

a baltic voyage

M O S C O W • S TO C K H O L M • TA L L I N N • S T. P E T E R S B U R G • H E L S I N K I Aboard the Silver Wind • July 9–21, 2008

© GALINA BARSKAYA / DREAMSTIME.COM

© WGLEB / DREAMSTIME.COM

Tallinn • Estonia

Cruise the Baltic Sea at the height of summer aboard the luxurious Silver Wind as you explore two pillars of Russian history – Moscow and St. Petersburg – and the Baltic seaports of Stockholm, Tallinn, and Helsinki. Enjoy specially arranged private tours and exclusive access. Smithsonian Journeys and the Santa Barbara Museum of Art will join us on this fascinating program.

residence of the president of Russia and not open to the general public. In Red Square, admire the rainbow colors of St. Basil’s Cathedral, and visit GUM, the enormous state-run department store.

The evening is at leisure. (B, L)

Moscow

Chandelier • Moscow Theater

City Hall and Gamla Stan (Old Town), with its labyrinthine alleyways and peaceful squares. Visit the Vasa Museum, where the massive battleship Vasa, which sank on her maiden voyage in 1628, is on display. Embark the Silver Wind for a seven-night cruise. (B, L, D)

Saturday, July 12

Tallinn, Estonia Monday, July 15

Moscow, Russia

After a private lecture by a high-level local dignitary, tour the Tretyakov Gallery’s outstanding collections of Russian icons and pre-revolutionary Russian art. This afternoon explore Moscow’s Metro, renowned for its architectural and decorative splendor.

Conclude with a visit to Novodevichy Convent and Cemetery.

Thursday, July 10

PARK HYATT HOTEL (B, L, D)

Depart U.S. Wednesday, July 9

Depart the U.S. on the recommended flight itinerary, or independently, for Moscow.

Arrive in Moscow and transfer to the five-star Park Hyatt Hotel adjacent to the Bolshoi Theatre. The remainder of the day is at leisure, followed by a welcome reception this evening. PARK HYATT HOTEL (R)

Moscow Friday, July 11

Within the Kremlin, enjoy a specially arranged before-hours visits to the Armory Museum; the Diamond Fund; Assumption Cathedral; the Grand Kremlin Palace, former home of the czars; and Terem Palace, official

Moscow / Stockholm, Sweden Sunday, July 13

Enjoy a morning of independent exploration in Moscow before boarding an afternoon flight to Stockholm. On arrival, check in to the centrally located Grand Hotel, which has hosted Nobel Prize winners since 1901; the remainder of the evening is at leisure. (B, L)

Stockholm (Embark) Monday, July 14

Explore the city, including the grand

Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, was the site of mass demonstrations known as the Singing Revolution, which resulted in Estonia’s declaration of independence from the Soviet Union in 1990. A tour of Old Town, a UNESCO World Heritage site considered one of the bestpreserved medieval centers in northern Europe, includes the Alexander Nevsky Cathedral and 13th-century Toompea Castle. Enjoy a private concert of medieval music and time to explore Old Town independently. SILVER WIND (B, L, D)

St. Petersburg, Russia Tuesday, July 16

Arrive this morning in St. Petersburg, a city that still evokes the artistic splendor lavished on it by its chief planner, Peter the Great. A tour includes St. Isaac’s Cathedral, the third largest in the world.

Lunch off the ship features Russian specialties and folkloric entertainment.

© DENIS BABENKO / DREAMSTIME.COM

Neva River • St. Petersburg

St. Basil’s Cathedral • Moscow

Early this evening enjoy an after-hours tour of the world-renowned Hermitage Museum. Established by Catherine the Great, the Hermitage houses one of the most important art collections in the world. SILVER WIND (B, L, D)

St. Petersburg Wednesday, July 17

Travel to the magnificent palacesand-parks complex of Peterhof on the southern shore of the Gulf of Finland for a specially arranged early entrance to the Great Palace. Stroll amid Peterhof ’s elaborate gardens, statues and fountains and visit the czar’s dining halls, bedchambers and studies. Return by hydrofoil to St. Petersburg with time for independent exploration, followed by a gala reception and a performance by the Red Army Choir. SILVER WIND (B, L, D)

St. Petersburg Thursday, July 18

Today enjoy a special early entrance to Catherine the Great’s Palace, renowned for the extraordinary Amber Room, six tons of solid amber deftly carved and framed in gold leaf. Once deemed the “eighth wonder of the world,” it was plundered by the Nazis in 1941. Although the original Amber Room remains missing, a magnificent

reconstruction was inaugurated in honor of St. Petersburg’s 300th anniversary in 2003. The afternoon is at leisure. SILVER WIND (B, L, D)

Helsinki, Finland Friday, July 19

This morning, dock in the Finnish capital city of Helsinki and tour the city by coach, viewing the neoclassical Senate Square and the rail station designed by internationally acclaimed Finnish architect Eliel Saarinen. Journey outside the city to visit the lakeside studios of Saarinen, Armas Lindgren, and Herman Gesellius. SILVER WIND (B, L, D)

At Sea Saturday, July 20

As the Silver Wind cruises across the Baltic toward Copenhagen, attend the lectures on board and take advantage of the ship’s many amenities. Tonight, enjoy a special reception and the captain’s farewell dinner. SILVER WIND (B, L, D)

Copenhagen, Denmark (Disembark) / U.S. Sunday, July 21

This morning, disembark the Silver Wind in Copenhagen and transfer to the airport for flights to the U.S. (B) COVER: © IGOR KHARLAMOV / DREAMSTIME.COM

Study Leaders Kim Kavrell Savit is an

international business manager for the Intelligence, Security and Technology Group of Science Applications International Corporation and an adjunct professor at the Denver University Graduate School of International Studies. Her twenty years of experience with the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense include a seven-year term as director for security and law enforcement assistance to the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union.

Mariana Carpinisan was born in

Romania and educated in Europe and the United States. A former curator at the Cleveland Museum of Art, she also taught at Case Western Reserve University.

Carpinisan serves as an art critic, independent curator and lecturer at Georgetown University as well as at museums in the U.S. and Europe.

•

Silver Wind • Veranda Suite

Silver Wind • Sundeck and pool

Silver Wind Silversea’s Silver Wind, which debuted in 1995, is a luxury cruise ship with an emphasis on friendliness and understated elegance. All 148 cabins are outside suites with twin beds (convertible to queen-size) or queen beds, separate sitting area, desk, vanity, walk-in closet, one or two marble baths with bathtub, TV/VCR and mini-fridge. The Silver Wind’s small size makes it easy for passengers to navigate among a number of attractive and comfortable venues, including the top-deck Panorama Lounge and the two-deck Show Lounge. There is a well-stocked library, Internet nook, card room, gym with Stairmasters and treadmills, a pool and two whirlpools, jogging track, spa and beauty salon. Three restaurants—The Restaurant, La Saletta, and Terrace Café— take advantage of Silversea’s relationship with the Relais & Chateaux network of exclusive inns and restaurants, whose chefs create distinctive and delicious menu selections.

Silver Wind • Exterior

Program rates: From $10,995 per person, double occupancy.

Please call for further information. A full program brochure, with a deckplan of the Silver Wind and rate details, is available.

Program rates include: All accommodations, meals, entrance fees and • Complimentary champagne, wine and spirits aboard the ship • Wine or beer with group lunches and dinners ashore • Premium vodka and caviar tasting aboard the ship • All on-tour transportation, including flight from Moscow to Stockholm, unless otherwise noted • Bottled water on excursions • State-of-the-art headsets for clear reception of expert commentary during excursions • Comprehensive educational programs by our study leaders, on-site guides and local experts • Transfers and luggage handling for those traveling on group flights • All gratuities for local service activities as indicated in the itinerary

personnel throughout the program, including guides, drivers and ship’s crew

• Port charges • Complete packet of pre-departure information,

including educational materials, reading list and luggage tags

FOR MORE INFORMATION, OR TO BOOK YOUR TRIP, CALL (415) 597-6720 OR E-MAIL TRAVEL@COMMONWEALTHCLUB.ORG

The Commonwealth Club of California 595 Market Street, 2nd Floor San Francisco, CA 94105

Purchase event tickets at commonwealthclub.org or call (415) 597-6705 or (800) 847-7730

PERIODICALS POSTAGE PAID IN SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA