Commonwealth aprilmay 2017

Commonwealth The

THE MAGAZINE OF THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB OF CALIFORNIA

EZEKIEL EMANUEL Obamacare Architect on What Comes Next page #7

APRIL/MAY 2017

GEORGE SHULTZ Insight into the Art of Statecraft page #42

CHANGEMAKERS Civil Rights in an Uncivil Time page #48

JANET YELLEN The Fed’s Role in Uncertain Economic Times page #36

$5.00; free for members | commonwealthclub.org

Experience the wildlife of the Arctic tundra and come face-to-face with the world’s largest land carnivore, the polar bear. In Winnipeg, Manitoba tour the city and visit the excellent Canadian Museum for Human Rights.

Continue to Churchill, to begin your expedition into polar bear country. Learn from some of the top polar bear experts as you watch these majestic mammals in their natural environment.

Maximum 16 guests. $6,960 per person, double occupancy

Brochure at commonwealthclub.org/travel | 415.597.6720 | travel@commonwealthclub.org

CST: 2096889-40

INSIDE THIS ISSUE 4

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More and more of our programs are selling out; members will get firrst notice of upcoming big events.

In conversation with Edward Wasserman

EDITOR’S DESK

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THE COMMONS

Remembering Kevin Starr, catching up with some repeat Club speakers, dancing at the gala, plus the Club’s new home is honored.

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EZEKIEL EMANUEL

In conversation with Mark Zitter The architect of the Affordable Care Act—aka Obamacare—discusses what could happen to President Obama’s signature legislative legacy, and what happened when Emanuel met President Trump, who has pledged to repeal and replace Obamacare.

JANET YELLEN

The Fed chair discusses the role that Congress has given it.

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GEORGE SHULTZ

The former secretary of state explains what he’s learned from desegregation, ending the Cold War and more.

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CHANGEMAKERS

A panel discusses the ways in which activists are pushing for changes in the modern world.

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INSIGHT

Dr. Gloria C. Duffy President and CEO

Programs Program Information 14 Two-month Calendar 15 Program Listings 17 Late-breaking events 33

April/May 2017

Volume 111, No. 3

On the Cover

Ezekiel Emanuel captured on-camera at 555 Post St. during his January program.

Photo by Rikki Ward

They don’t specify the kind of marketplace that would exist.

So it’s a little hard to get your arms around exactly what the alternative is going to be.

EZEKIEL EMANUEL

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EDITORIAL TRANSCRIPT POLICY

The Commonwealth magazine covers a range of programs in each issue. Program transcripts and question and answer sessions are routinely condensed due to space limitations. Hear full-length recordings online at commonwealthclub.org/media, podcasts on Google Play and Apple iTunes, or contact Club offices to buy a compact disc.

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Copyright © 2017 The Commonwealth Club of California.

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Photo by Lydia Chambers

Be the First to Be in the Know

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ou have your favorites. I have my mine. Everyone, if they stop to think about it, has their favorite speakers they’d like to hear. It is the role of The Commonwealth Club staff and volunteers who put together our 450 annual programs to line up a lot of those favorites, and the evidence suggests they are doing their jobs.

Over the past few months, we have noticed a very significant trend: More of our programs are selling out than normal. Many more. That shows not only a hunger for the type of events that the Club puts together, but it demonstrates that The Commonwealth Club is in the lucky position of doing what is most needed in these unusual times. We provide a platform for people from a wide variety of backgrounds and viewpoints to explore important topics of interest to everyone in a civil environment.

Naturally, a big program with a celebrity speaker is expected to sell out or get pretty close. But the wonderful thing about our current string of sell-outs is that we have had dozens of sold-out programs the past few months, and they range from big celebrity speakers to small-group discussions to a post-election town hall to economic talks and beyond. When we scheduled former Secretary of State George Shultz to speak in our main auditorium in early February, the program sold out so quickly we moved it to the larger venue of the nearby Marines Memorial Theatre—and it again sold out quickly. Our January program with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sold out within a few days. When we announced a program with environmental pioneer Jane Goodall,

more than half of the tickets were snapped up within 24 hours.

If you are subscribed to any of our email newsletters, then you will be the first ones to know about upcoming programs that we think might sell out. That’s a benefit of being a member; we’ll notify the rest of the world 48 hours later. We want to make sure that you get the first opportunity to see your favorite speakers discuss what’s important to you.

But remember: all kinds of our programs are selling out. There are programs that surprise us and sell out, even before we can alert members. The best way to keep abreast of our lineup is to subscribe to our newsletters (including our Sunday newsletter, which includes all upcoming programs for the next two weeks) and follow us on Twitter and Facebook, where we provide daily updates, along with video and audio links. i want to extend a welcome to Megan Turner and James Meinerth. Megan joined us in February as our new digital associate editor, and she quickly got to work on planning the digital screens you’ll see at our new building, as well as working on our new website and on this very edition of The Commonwealth. Also lending his hand to this magazine—along with our annual Gala materials, program images, and much more—is James, our new designer. I’m very glad to have them both on board, and I look forward to showing off their work to you in the months ahead.

JOHN Z I P P E R E R VP, ME DIA & ED I T O RI AL

E AB S TA L KS HOAFR ETDH EI D C LU Leadership of The Commonwealth Club

Kevin Starr photo

by Drew Altizer

Remembering Kevin Starr

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arly this year, we lost a good friend and a legendary mind when Kevin Starr passed away at the age of 76.

A prolific and knowledgable writer and historian, he served as California’s state librarian from 1994 to 2004, and had previously served as San Francisco’s city librarian. In his long career, he also was a professor of urban and regional planning and later a history professor at the University of Southern California, columnist for The San Francisco Examiner, and a speechwriter for San Francisco Mayor Joseph Alioto in the early 1970s. He was a steadfast friend to the Club, speaking here numerous times, lending his advice, and even pitching in with a good word when we were going through the city planning process for our new building at 110 The Embarcadero.

We weren’t the only ones who thought highly of Dr. Starr.

Writer James Fallows called him “erudite, generous, influential.”

Governor Jerry Brown said Starr “captured the spirit of our state and brought to life the characters and personalities that made the California story.” Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wrote on Facebook “I will never be able to thank him enough for our enlightening conversations about California history and his always prescient advice.”

He was the winner of the Gold Medal from the Club’s California Book Awards, and he received the National Humanities Medal from President George W. Bush in 2006 and was inducted into the California Hall of Fame in 2010.

Speaker Updates

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huck Nevius retired from the San Francisco Chronicle in December after 36 years as first a sports writer and then a columnist. We knew he wouldn’t be satisfied with doing nothing with all of his free time. Nevius has moderated Club programs as well as serving as a panelist—such as on an August 2016 program on San Francisco homelessness—and he was a frequent panelist on our Week to Week political roundtable program. But what would he do with all of his

time? We asked him, and he said he’s got a book he’s shopping around to publishers, and we don’t doubt it’ll be full of great stories—perhaps including his meeting Donald Trump on a golf course back in Nevius’ sports days. But Bay Area folks didn’t have to wait until that tome appears in print; in mid-March, Nevius took to the stage of San Francisco’s The Marsh for a one-man show, telling stories of his life and career.

Another recently departed Chronicle vet—also another Week to Week panelist who moderated our July 2014 program with Ralph Nader—is Debra J. Saunders. The longtime conservative columnist departed the Bay Area in January to take an exciting new position as White House correspondent for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The next time she returns to the Bay Area, we look forward to hearing about her experiences in the Trump White House.

Heritage on Display

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e wanted to give a thank you to the California Heritage Council, which in 2016 honored The Commonwealth Club’s new building at 110 The Embarcadero. The Council expressed its appreciation “of the restoration and repurposing of the circa 1910 ... building and for sharing the historic events that took place in front of the building.” When the building opens in the near future, visitors will be able to learn more about the site’s history in a specially curated video display.

Hooray for Bollywood

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o help celebrate Lata Krishnan at the Club’s annual gala in March, we brought in some Indian flair. Krishnan is the CFO of Shah Capital Partners and the chair of the American India Foundation. In the photo on the next page, Bollywood dancers entertained the audience before dinner.

We’ll present more photos from the gala in a special feature in an upcoming issue of The Commonwealth.

AP R I L/MAY 2017

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LEADERSHIP OF THE COMMONWEALTH TA L K CLUB C LU B OF THE

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Nullam euismod John F. Allen Dr. Mary G. F. Bitterman ** Don Wen Paul M. Ginsburg Nelson Weller * Carlo Almendral adipiscing elit. Hon. Maecenas pharetra lorem placerat lectus, sedTemple efficitur Hon. Shirley Black*† nunc tempor quis. Maecenas Dr. ColleenetB. Wilcox James C. Hormel Judith Wilbur * Courtland Alves J. Dennis Bonney* Jed York Mary Huss tortor facilisis maximus.

Suspendisse consequat, volutpat turpis vel sem tempus, et viverra nisl facilisis.

Dennis Wu* Dan Ashley John Busterud* Mark Zitter Julie Kane Massey J. Bambara Maryles Casto** John Leckrone metus vel ultrices suscipit, nisi quam tincidunt Mauris nec dui tristique, elementum enim eu, porta nibh. * Past President Dr. Mary G. F. Bitterman** Hon. Ming Chin* Dr. Mary Marcy ADVISORY BOARD odio,Harry ut E.tincidunt mauris Frank justoC. Meerkamp a massa. MaurisKarin mauris sedB. ex eget dolor dapibus ** Past Chairconsectetur eu eu Blount Cranston** Helene BauerMaecenas Mary † Deceased John L. Boland Joseph I. Epstein * Lenny Mendonca Hon. William Bradley est, sollicitudin sed dolor non, finibus sollicitudin lorem. augue. Phasellus aliquet sed orci id hendrerit. Nunc Anna W.M. Mok Dr. Joseph R. Fink * Michael R. Bracco Dennise M. Carter CLUB OFFICERS Board Chair Richard A. Rubin Vice Chair Evelyn S. Dilsaver Secretary Dr. Jaleh Daie Treasurer John R. Farmer President & CEO Dr. Gloria C. Duffy

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A P R I L/MAY 2017

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Photo by Rikki Ward

Ezekiel Emanuel

Obamacare Architect on What Comes Next “We had high-risk pools. They didn’t do anything to bring down the number of uninsured. Billions of dollars went into them.”

EZEKIEL EMANUEL M.D., Ph.D., Former Chief Health Policy Advisor to the Obama Administration; Chair, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania In conversation with

MARK ZITTER

Chair, The Zetema Project January 11, 2017 program in San Francisco; underwritten by The California Wellness Foundation

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Photo by Rikki Ward

MARK ZITTER:

When I invited you to come speak at the Club back in October, we had envisioned a very different world on January 11th. Then the election hit, and lots of things changed. I think your phone has been ringing off the hook since that time. Things got really interesting. I’ll admit that the first thing I thought of was, “Now I can start with a little joke.” And the joke is: Has the Trump administration consulted you?

But then they did! And they brought you to Trump Towers.

EZEKIEL EMANUEL: Consulted might be a strong word.

ZITTER: [Laughter.] I don’t know what you can share with us, but my first question is, Were you surprised when they called you to come in and talk to the president-elect?

EMANUEL: I don’t think I’ve actually said this publicly, but when he first called me, I was on an Amtrak train going down from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., and I needed some privacy, so I slipped into the bathroom. So I was talking to the president-elect from the Amtrak restroom.

[Laughter.]

ZITTER: So you went to Trump Tower, you spoke with him. Did you feel more optimistic after speaking with him, or less or neither?

EMANUEL: I guess more optimistic is the way I would put it.

ZITTER: Why was that?

EMANUEL: I’m not sure how much I want to talk about that. But we had a full 45 minutes. The president-elect was very engaged, had some very good and pointed

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questions. And I think, as he made clear, he does want a replacement.

I think he sincerely does want to improve the system and get Americans covered. I think, as he said at his press conference, he recognizes you can’t have repeal and delay.

You have got to have repeal and replace at the same time. So all of those were positive statements in my view.

ZITTER: Okay, let’s get into some of the specifics. We know that the Affordable Care Act has resulted in coverage for about 22 million Americans, roughly half through Medicaid expansion and half through the new health exchanges and so forth. I [had] asked you to write a blog with one recommendation for the incoming administration, and you chose to write about the potential danger of destabilizing the health insurance exchange, as in making sure that that will be avoided. From what you hear being discussed in Congress, are you more or less worried about it at this point actually happening—the destabilization?

EMANUEL: Well, it’s very unclear how it’s going to go. But certainly if you look at the three dominant Republican proposals that have been made—Paul Ryan’s A Better Way, Tom Price’s proposal and something called the Care Act, which has been co-sponsored by senators [Richard] Burr and [Orrin] Hatch, and by Representative [Fred] Upton—all of them sort of take away the exchanges.

They try to retain subsidies in the form of refundable tax credits. But those refundable tax credits, if you look at the dollar amount they’re suggesting, are quite inadequate— and much less, especially at the lower end

of the income scale, to buy insurance. So it would be a substantial cost shift from the government to people, to buy insurance.

They don’t specify the kind of marketplace that would exist. So it’s a little hard to get your arms around exactly what the alternative is going to be. If you are trying to get affordability for the American public and you’re reducing the subsidies, that seems like a contradiction to me. And it does mean if you went that route, fewer people would actually buy insurance.

I might note for people in the audience, exchanges have been tried in the United States many times. The sort of exchanges on the Affordable Care Act are not the first time we ever tried them. Previous attempts, including attempts here in California—Pac Advantage—have been voluntary exchanges. Typically, though not exclusively, for small businesses. All of them fail for exactly the reasons we’re seeing, that there’s stress in the current exchanges, which is people who buy tend to have higher health-care needs.

People see the premiums going up.

The people who are healthy peel off, and then you have what’s been called the death spiral. The only way to solve that problem, as has become very painfully clear to everyone, I think, is you have to have everyone in the system, or as near to everyone as you can get. Again, if you get rid of the mandate, which is one of the things Republicans have been talking about, you have very few options to induce people to go into that kind of system and you get a very unstable marketplace. So if you want a stable marketplace, you have got to try to get everyone in. If you don’t like the mandate, you have

got to figure out some other mechanism to induce people to get in.

A colleague of mine, a very famous health economist, says you need compulsion. You can call it whatever you want—you can call it a mandate, you can call it continuous coverage—but you have to have some compulsion to get everyone into the system. And it’s not American to have compulsion.

But on the other hand, if you don’t have compulsion, you can’t have this mechanism of having private insurance, and then what are you stuck with? Some government program for everyone. Medicare for all or something. That also doesn’t ride well with certain elements of American society.

So one of the things you learn when you get into health care is you don’t have complete freedom of movement. There, you want a few things—we want universal coverage; we don’t want preexisting condition exclusions. We want affordability; we want a private insurance market—there are only a few ways you can achieve that.

ZITTER: So if you want to have a market, you have to have a reasonable risk pool with the healthy people as well as the people who are less healthy.

EMANUEL: And an easy way for people to access that market with subsidies, because very few people except the super rich can afford insurance on their own without help.

I don’t think people fully appreciate in America just how expensive health insurance is. If you get your insurance through an employer, you don’t pay the full bill. You see your bill and you say, “Wow, that’s a lot of money.” Turns out your “lot of money”

is typically only about a quarter of the total bill.

Today in America, on average, employer-sponsored insurance for a family is $18,000. Okay, that’s a little more than a third of the median income in America.

ZITTER: Yeah, a lot of money.

EMANUEL: I mean most of us in this room, we’re pretty well off.We’re not the poor of America, [but] we can’t write an $18,000 check. Okay, so we need help.

We get help either through the employer, through the government, or some other mechanism.

ZITTER: So we need to have those people in the risk pool.

EMANUEL: Yes. ZITTER: And one way to do that is a mandate and as you say, Americans just don’t like being told what to do.

So the pushback that I hear from Republicans is that you don’t need to do a mandate. We don’t have a mandate for Medicare Part B, the physician part. We don’t have a mandate for Medicare Part D, the drug part. We have incentives. Could we go that route just as well?

EMANUEL: So again, let me just say you need compulsion, okay? I’m not exactly sure that you call it; I mean you can call it incentives. Let’s take the Medicare Part D case. Part D is for drugs. It’s a very classic case where the member or the Medicare beneficiary pays 25 percent of the premium and the government—i.e., you—pay 75 percent of the premium from general taxes.

The way it works is if a Medicare beneficiary becomes eligible for Part D and they don’t sign up, they say, “I’m not gonna take

it.” And then several years later they want it; their premiums have gone up, reflecting their delay in getting it. And it turns out it does work, but not very well.

What do I mean by “it does work”? Seventy-nine percent of people eligible for Part D take up Part D. Let me translate that for you: 21 percent of people who are eligible for Part D don’t take Part D. A fifth of people don’t take Part D, and this is in a cohort of people who are 65 and older. We know they’re gonna use drugs at some point in their [life]time. It’s not a very effective inducement.

ZITTER: Mm-hm.

EMANUEL: We have a better inducement now with a pretty weak mandate.

On average I think I just saw that last year the penalty was $470 on average. That’s not a very big penalty. And that’s much better than 79 percent in terms of getting people to buy. So that inducement is a kind of compulsion. You will pay more money if you delay. Even in a group that knows they’re gonna eventually need this, there’s a lot of people delaying.

So that is not gonna keep your risk pool stable. I’d like to say there are only four ways of getting everyone in: the mandate; with the penalty—higher rates or a penalty of higher rates if you don’t actually buy the insurance and want to come in later; continuous coverage, that means you have to have insurance all the time except for a month or two between jobs, again, not a great mechanism; and the last one is, we give it to you.

You don’t have to buy it; we give it to you, or we give something to you.

We do that too in America; it’s called Photo by Rikki Ward

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Medicare Part A, which if you’re over 65, guess what? You get it. And that does get you 100 percent.

ZITTER: Yes. EMANUEL: You can have an optout, or you could have: We’re gonna give you the base model, catastrophic coverage and if you want more—the usual care—you have to pay a premium.

There has been talk about that, automatic enrollment, by Republicans no less. I think interestingly that is a way that could [be] bipartisan. You could get Republicans and Democrats to agree on automatic enrollment into a base model. And then, people can buy up or opt out and not get coverage.

I like that idea. I like the fact that it could be bipartisan. And I do think it would solve a big problem.

ZITTER: Well, it’s interesting looking for bipartisan opportunities. [Laughter.]

One of the interesting ones I see as certainly one of the most popular aspects of the Affordable Care Act is the rule that prevents insurers from denying coverage for people with preexisting conditions.

And it’s one of the only ones that the president-elect has said he’d like to keep right overall.

EMANUEL: Right.

ZITTER: However, some of the Republican proposals don’t include it; they instead have high-risk pools that are funded at least partly, largely by the federal government. What are the politics of that and also

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how could the high risk pools work? Would they work?

EMANUEL: So let’s just talk about the preexisting condition exclusion for a second. Because it turns out once you affirmed that—which is wildly popular in the United States, 85–90 percent of the population loves that provision. It turns out that once you accept that, there are a few things that you’re compelled to also accept.

You also need to accept that there’s gotta be some minimum benefits package.

Because if you have no preexisting disease exclusions, and you’re not gonna have a set benefits package, well then yes, I’ll sell you insurance. You had cancer? Well, I’ll sell you insurance but it doesn’t have chemotherapy in it, okay?

Is that all right? Just fine. Doesn’t work, unless you say here’s the set of things you have to cover. That’s what insurance is gonna look like. So and then you have to have, again if it’s gonna be affordable, it’s not just gonna say, you can’t exclude preexisting conditions but you can charge whatever you want. That obviously doesn’t work. So you have to commit yourself to a minimum benefits package. You have to commit yourself to a community or pretty close to community rating, the same rate for everyone no matter what their condition. You begin to have a series of entanglements, you might say, by accepting this very popular provision.

And the insurance companies will say

“and you also need a mandate” by the way once you accept that. So I think that’s the path you have to go down. If you accept that and the president has in multiple occasions affirmed that he likes that provision, recognizing that it is gonna raise rates, right, if you include the sick people, it means that health-care insurance rates are gonna be up and he’s recognized that and affirmed it.

High-risk pools are well, you know what?

We will take people who are sick and we are going to concentrate them, super concentrate them, in a set of insurance products and we are going to heavily subsidize those sets of insurance products. Because again, if you are sick and you are trying to buy insurance, you cannot afford it. So, we are going to heavily subsidize those high-risk pools. It turns out those high-risk pools are incredibly inefficient, because you’ve done exactly what everyone says you shouldn’t do in health insurance, which is, you’ve taken all the sick people and put them in one place.

They’re super expensive. It means you have to subsidize a lot to get them insurance, and that’s not an efficient way of doing it. And different proposals by the Republicans have different amounts that they’re willing to put into these high-risk pools. Paul Ryan’s plan had $25 billion, which would cover three million people, not terribly efficient.

Representative Price had, I think, put in one plan that was $1 billion and another plan that was $3 billion that would hardly cover anybody. So I don’t know that they’re

Photo by Rikki Ward

terribly serious about using high-risk pools; I’m a little skeptical that they’re going to work so well. We had, as some of you may know, in the Affordable Care Act, there was a transition period between the passage of the act in 2010 and the opening of the exchanges in 2014. For that period, we had high-risk pools. They didn’t do anything to bring down the number of uninsured. You can look at the Gallup poll numbers that made absolutely totally no difference and they weren’t free. Billions of dollars went into them.

ZITTER: So that one may not make a change here.

EMANUEL: I don’t think it’s a winner.

ZITTER: I think this’ll be an easy question for you, but it’s certainly one that the president-elect has really championed, loves, and that is the notion to just allow insurers to sell insurance across state lines.

Wouldn’t that simply increase competition and bring prices down?

EMANUEL: Like many things in health care, it’s all in the details, so what does it mean to sell across state lines? It may surprise you that there are states that do allow that already, and it also may surprise you not one single insurance company has availed themselves of that practice.

Now I don’t know exactly what the president has in mind, but insurance is regulated at the state level and different states have different requirements. Some states, the in-

surance commissioner can review and reject premium increases; other states have additional requirements of different benefits that have to be covered. They look at the solvency of insurance companies; they require deposits and having certain reserves. Now, I presume that selling across state lines, one of the things it may mean is there should be reciprocity for selling.

So if you’re approved to sell in California, you can also sell in New Jersey, if you adhere to the laws of New Jersey. That actually—I don’t have any problem with that.

That might be a reasonable way to go selling across state lines. It depends a lot on what is meant; if it means that you can sell the package you have in say, Wyoming, with few restrictions on insurance companies, limited requirements of things that they have to cover—they might not cover mental health or something—and California has to accept that, and the insurance commissioner can’t review that—that’s unlikely to be something that’s going to be wildly popular in California. Let me tell you why insurance companies don’t actually sell across state lines so much. One of it is, say you’re Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama and now you want to sell in Tennessee; you have to have a collection of doctors and hospitals in Tennessee.

Setting up that infrastructure, nontrivial, costs a lot of money, and yet you start out without a lot of doctors and things. It becomes hard to do, and most health pol-

icy experts just don’t think it’s going to be a major way of solving a problem. On the other hand, we do agree with the president that having more competition by more insurance companies is a good way to keep health-care rates down.

ZITTER: This may not be the best way to do it?

EMANUEL: It just again does not appear to be, at least on the initial evidence, a very efficient way to do it.

ZITTER: Let’s talk a little bit about Medicaid, since that was a big half of the expansion overall.

EMANUEL: Correct.

ZITTER: Obviously, Medicaid is the federal and state jointly funded program for poorer Americans. For years, many Republicans have been aiming to try and turn that program into a block grant program.

Talk about what block grants are and how they might work.

EMANUEL: The idea, in Medicaid, about 50 percent of the cost is paid for by the federal government, 57 percent on average. Poorer states get more and richer states get less. With that money from the federal government comes certain restrictions. You have to do certain things. You have to provide certain benefits. You have to cover certain groups. Beyond that, the state has some flexibility. For example, whether it’s going to cover healthy adults who happen to be working but don’t have insurance through their employer and are too poor to buy it on

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Photo by Rikki Ward

their own. Whether they cover those people, that’s left to the states. States, call them red states, tend not to cover those people; other states, call them blue states, tend to cover them at least to some degree. That’s not a perfect relationship, but reasonably good.

So that’s the program. A block grant is— say, in 2017, you’ve covered 2 million people; this is what the cost is. In 2018, we’re going to give you that cost as one unit, state, and you can take the money from the federal [government] that we’ve given you, and you can use it how you want in your Medicaid program. And we’re going to reduce the restrictions and requirements that we, the federal government, put on you, and you’ll have more flexibility to cover people in your state.

Now, I would say that there are three problems with that, but before I get to the problems, let me just say the main justification used is we want state flexibility. States know their citizens better—you’ve heard that line a few times before; and states are laboratories and they’ll test out different novel ways of giving care and health insurance to poor people. Some will do better, we’ll learn from it, and those will proliferate.

There are three main problems. The first one is, it looks like 2017 is going to be a reasonably good economic year. Unemployment is relatively low, barring a disaster. It’s going to hang out in the 4.5-to-5 percent range. But 2019 may not be so good. Lots of macroeconomists are predicting a recession is going to occur sometime in the next few years, and unemployment might go up substantially, and then more people will need Medicaid. By block granting, you get

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that same thing that you had in 2017 with a small increase, not for more people.

In technical economic terms, what you want is a Medicaid program which is countercyclical. When you have a recession, more money can be put into it, recognizing more people will need it. When the economy’s going well you don’t have to spend as much, because the unemployment and the need for Medicaid is lower.

Block grants are not countercyclical. Just imagine we had a block grant in 2007 and then we had the 2008 Great Recession and then, 2009 when unemployment kept occurring and we got to 10 percent unemployment. If you had a block grant, Medicaid would not accommodate that. So that’s one problem. It doesn’t work the way you want it to work in bad economic times.

Second, a lot depends on a very important small detail, not often paid attention to, which is at what rate of increase is that block grant going to go? Is it gonna increase at inflation? Is it going to increase with the growth of the economy? Is it going to increase at health-care inflation? Those are three different levels. If health-care inflation goes up faster than the growth in the economy or underlying inflation of the economy, guess what? That block grant is comparatively shrinking, meaning if you’re not gonna cut back on the number of people who get covered or you’re not gonna cut back on their benefits, the state’s gonna pay more money.

We have a term for that in health care; it’s called cost shifting. We’re basically cost shifting from the federal government and asking the states to pick up more money.

You in California have had an experience with that. I believe you had large deficits until recently? Cost shifting to states is not a good idea; they have a lot of other very important requirements which over time have been really ignored. Things like education, infrastructure, environment, because Medicaid has been taking so much money. Shifting more of the burden of Medicaid onto the states is a generally poor item. I will say that most of the Republican plans want to increase it with general inflation, again surreptitiously, just shifting more of the cost onto states.

The last point is, yeah, there might be a few states that’ll do a lot of experimenting, which will be good and they’ll be innovative. Most states, that’s probably not true, and most states what they’re gonna use that flexibility for is cutting benefits and services to the neediest in our society. I don’t have a lot of confidence that that won’t happen, especially in bad economic times, and so I think we do run a bad risk if we just go block granting.

Now there are some alternatives which mitigate a lot of those problems. One of them is called the per capita cap, which means that we don’t block grant the whole thing but we give you a set amount per person. So if the uninsurance rate goes up, the need for Medicaid goes up, you get more money because you’re getting money based on a person. That also gives an incentive to the states to actually enroll more people, they get more money. That might be an alternative, again properly structured that might be something that could appeal to Democrats.

ZITTER:

There’ s a lot of concern about pulling back on the Medicaid expansion overall.

EMANUEL: Yeah.

ZITTER: Now interestingly, one of the states that got Medicaid expansion funds, and used them very creatively for a program that really follows a lot of Republican principles, is Indiana. The Healthy Hoosiers program insured another 200,000-plus people. Most people are aware the vice president-elect was the governor of Indiana and started this program. Seema Verma, who has been tapped to head Medicare and Medicaid, was the person running that program.

EMANUEL: Yep. ZITTER: There’s been lots of discussion about—should they actually come into office, they would try to turn Medicaid into something like that, which might have pros and cons. But also does it imply, in many ways, we’re less likely to see a pullback in Medicaid funding given that that’s what they used to fund this new creative program they’ve been talking about?

EMANUEL: So if you’re a state governor, you do like getting federal funds. It does help you with your budget, and in that proverbial phrase, you’re bringing home the bacon.

I will say one of the things we were aware of when we created the Medicaid expansion for poorer people and the exchanges with the ability to buy private insurance for people from 138 percent of the poverty line on up, was that a lot of people around those financial lines go back and forth.

Sometimes their income goes down in one year and sometimes their income goes up. We have a very fancy, technical term in health policy for that: it’s called churn. One year you’re on Medicaid, one year you’re in the exchange. That is actually quite inefficient. It’s administratively a big problem and one of the things that might be creatively done in a replacement or repair of the Affordable Care Act, is to think about how you might minimize that churn.

One way is to say healthy adults, children, pregnant women, who are the traditional pool for the Medicaid expansion, just happen to be poor but otherwise relatively good. They’re not the dual-eligible elderly; they’re not the disabled. You can go into regular private insurance with the Medicaid dollars. That would reduce the churn in an important way.

It would be administratively more efficient. It also would probably enhance the access of a lot of poor people to specialists because we know that one of the big prob-

lems on Medicaid is access to doctors who often don’t take Medicaid.

ZITTER: California benefits to the tune of about 4.5 million people getting coverage under the Affordable Care Act, both Medicaid and what is the largest and arguably the most successful health insurance exchange in the country, state-run overall. So given all that, does that mean that California would be hurt more than most other states were some of these things pulled back?

EMANUEL: California has about 4.5–4.6 million people cover[ed] under the Affordable Care Act. You guys get about $20 billion a year from the federal government to support that expansion. It’s a big hefty chunk of change. If the Affordable Care Act were repealed and the subsidies were taken away, it would hurt you a lot.

Part of the big advantage California’s gotten is that before the ACA, you were not such a big shining star. You had a very high rate of uninsurance in this state, about 20 percent, not so enviable. It would be not a good situation; I believe either the Urban Institute or Rand predicted that if the Affordable Care Act is repealed, by 2021, about 7.5 million Californians would lose insurance. You guys would be back to roughly 20 percent of the population without health insurance. Pretty bad.

Photo by Rikki Ward

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PROGRAMS The Commonwealth Club organizes more than 450 events every year on politics, the arts, media, literature, business and sports. Programs are held throughout the Bay Area.

Standard programs are typically one hour long and frequently include panel discussions or speeches followed by a question and answer session. Many evening programs include a networking reception with wine.

PROGRAM DIVISIONS

CLIMATE ONE Discussion among climate scientists, policymakers, activists, and citizens about energy, the economy, and the environment.

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INFORUM

MEMBER-LED FORUMS

Inspiring talks with leaders in tech, culture, food, design, business and social issues targeted towards young adults.

Volunteer-driven programs that focus on particular fields. Most evening programs include a wine networking reception.

INFORUMSF.ORG

COMMONWEALTHCLUB.ORG/MLF

RADIO, VIDEO, & PODCASTS Watch Club programs on the California Channel every Saturday at 9 p.m., and on KRCB TV 22 on Comcast. Select Commonwealth Club programs air on Marin TV’s Education Channel (Comcast Channel 30, U-Verse Channel 99) and on CreaTV in San Jose (Channel 30). View hundreds of streaming videos of Club programs at fora.tv and youtube.com/commonwealthclub

Subscribe to our free podcast service on iTunes and Google Play to automatically receive new programs: commonwealthclub.org/podcast.

Hear Club programs on more than 200 public and commercial radio stations throughout the United States. For the latest schedule, visit commonwealthclub.org/broadcast.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, tune in to: KQED (88.5 FM) Fridays at 8 p.m. and Saturdays at 2 a.m.

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KRCB Radio (91.1 FM in Rohnert Park) Thursdays at 7 p.m.

KNBR (680 and 1050 AM) Sundays at 5 a.m.

KALW (91.7 FM) Inforum programs select Tuesdays at 7p.m.

KFOG (104.5 and 97.7 FM) Sundays at 5 a.m.

KLIV (1590 AM) Thursdays at 7 p.m.

TuneIn.com Fridays at 4 p.m.

TICKETS Prepayment is required. Unless otherwise indicated, all events—including “Members Free” events—require tickets. Programs often sell out, so we strongly encourage you to purchase tickets in advance. Due to heavy call volume, we urge you to purchase tickets online at commonwealthclub.org; or call (415) 597-6705. Please note: All ticket sales are final. Please arrive at least 10 minutes prior to any program. Select events include premium seating, which refers to the first several rows of seating. Pricing is subject to change.

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HARD OF HEARING? To request an assistive listening device, please e-mail William Blum seven working days before the event at wblum@commonwealthclub.org.

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5:30 pm Jane Goodall in Conversation with Jeff Horowitz and Greg Dalton 6 pm Reading Californians Book Discussion Group 6 pm Sniffing, Swirling and Sipping 6:30pm What Does It Mean to Be Muslim?

1:30 pm Longevity Explorers Discussion Group 5:30 pm A Vision of the Eco-Village 5:30 pm Week to Week Politics Roundtable and Social Hour 6:30 pm SFDebate

5:30 pm The Future of Digital Marketing 5:30 pm Digging Deep into Philanthropy–the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11:30 am Mastering Migraines: Neuroscience Nutrition and the Art of Avoiding Your Triggers 5:30 pm Middle East Forum Discussion 5:30 pm Bonds of Union 6:30 pm SFDebate

San Francisco

1:45 pm Nob Hill Walking Tour 6 pm Journalist Annie Jacobsen: ESP and the U.S. Government 6:15 pm Jane Mayer: Behind Dark Money

5:30 pm Trump Advisor Roger Stone: The Making of the President

5:30 pm Krista Tippett: Heart, Mind and Spirit

5:30 pm Jewish Justices of the Supreme Court from Brandeis to Kagan 6 pm Texas Surprise

East/North Bay

4:45 pm Love Letters: Not a Lost Art At All 5:30 pm Alyssa Mastromonaco: Running the Obama White House 7 pm Made in Marin: Cowgirl Creamery and Rustic Bakery

5:30 pm Inheriting Cancer: When Risks Are in Your Genes

11 am Vincente Fox, Former President of Mexico 4:45 pm Let’s Talk About Death 6 pm Humanities West Book Discussion 6 pm #Resist with Annie Leonard and Shannon Coulter

5:30 pm Week to Week Politics Roundtable and Social Hour 6 pm The Giving Code

Silicon Valley

5:30 pm The Other One Percent: Indians in America 5:45 pm Trump’s First 100 Days: Part Three

11 am Journalist T.R. Reid 12:30 pm Tracking Silicon Valley’s Ups and Downs 5:30 pm How Leaders Gain Competitive Advantage Through Lessons from History 5:30 pm Sam Altman

11:30 pm Our Toxic World: Is It Making Us Sick?

1:45 pm San Francisco Architecture Walking Tour 6 pm Dr. Elisabethe Rosenthal: Getting Big Business out of Health Care

11:30 am Journalist Chris Whipple: Secrets of the White House Gatekeepers 6 pm Cody Cassidy and Paul Doherty: 1,000 Wild Ways to Die

FM Free for members

11:30 am Battle For Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East

11:30 am Trump and the Middle East

FE Free for everyone

MO Members-only

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5:30 pm Achieve More, Stress Less: Have Fun Getting Better Results from Fewer Resources 6:30 John Mackey: Co-Founder and CEO of Whole Foods Market

5:15 Blinding 1:30 p.m. pm Longevity Flash of the Obvious Explorers Discussion 6:30 p.m. Ben FrankGroup lin Circles FM 5:30 pm American 6:30 p.m. ChangeEnlightenments makers: 6:30 pm Movement Samin Leaders on Civil Nosrat and Wendy Rights in an Uncivil MacNaughton Time FM 7:45 p.m. The Future of America’s Political

5:30 Week to Week Politics Roundtable and Social Hour

5:30 pm Middle East Forum Discussion 6:30 pm Women and Islam 6:30 SFDebate

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10 a.m.

6:30 pmChinatown Fear of a Walking Tour SurveiFaith: Sharia, 6:30 Sallie and lance,p.m.

Terrorism Krawcheck: The Powthe Muslim Ban er of Women, Work 6 pm Journalist Nick and Wallet Bilton: Inside the 7 p.m. Gopi Online BlackKallayil: Market Brain, Body and Consciousness

5:30 pm Rugged Individualism

5:45 pm Willie Brown: Annual Commonwealth Club Lecture

6 pm Kaiser Permanente Medical Chief Dr. Robert Pearl: Getting the Mistakes out of Health Care

6 pm An Evening with Caitlyn Jenner

4:45 pm Alzheimer’s Disease–Eight Steps to Overcoming Refusal of Care

4:45 pm How to “Age in Place” Safely–Navigating the Confusing World of Home Care 6 pm Humanities West Book Discussion: Antony and Cleopatra, by William Shakespeare

5:30 pm American Exceptionalism and the Rise Trumpism

5:30 pm The Universal Stage: A Critique of Empathy 5:45 pm Trump’s First 100 Days: Part Four

9:45 am Chinatown Walking Tour 5:30 pm The Witches: Salem 1692 6 pm How Cities Can Solve the Climate Challenge 6 pm Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant: Option B

5:30 pm The Importance of Diversity in the Environmental Movement for the 21st Century 6 pm Volunteer Orientation

11:30 am Autoimmune Fix 1:45 pm North Beach Walking Tour 5:30 pm Sleep Apnea: Creating Seamless Accountability for the Patient

5:30 pm Plastic Waste: A Path from Garbage to Healthy Resources 5:30 pm Tartine All Day Every Day

11:30 am The Islamic Enlightenment: The Modern Struggle Between Faith and Reason

11 am Sustaining Capitalism: Bipartisan Solutions to Restore Trust and Prosperity

11:30 am Resolving Afghanistan: Crafting a Sensible U.S. Approach

commonwealthclub.org/events

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Jane Goodall 4/3

MONDAY, APRIL 3 Reading Californians Book Discussion Group: Waiting for the Electricity Waiting for the Electricity by Christina Nichol begins in the republic of Georgia. The novel is about a humble maritime lawyer, Slims Achmed Makahvili. The Communists are long gone, but there are no jobs in the cities—and when there are jobs, employees aren’t compensated. When they are compensated, it’s because the jobs are ... not strictly scrupulous.

Makahvili discovers an application for a small internship program sponsored by Hillary Clinton. His letters to her describe his eagerness to bring efficiency and opportunity to his homeland, replacing his friends’ and relatives’ decadence, lethargy and unsavory business practices. After Makahvili is chosen for the internship and finally arrives in America—in a utopian San Francisco—he decides his loud, bickering family and his anguished, joyful country no longer seem so grim.

The book has been described by author Norman Rush as a “triumphant, sustained, comic performance.” He adds: “I can’t recall a contemporary American novel anywhere near as funny.” The Wall Street Journal describes the book as “endearing and dryly hilarious.”

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. networking reception, 5:15 p.m. program • MLF: Reading Californians Book Discussion • Program organizer: Betty Bullock

Jane Goodall in Conversation with Jeff Horowitz and Greg Dalton

Dr. Jane Goodall, DBE, Founder, the Jane Goodall Institute; U.N. Messenger of Peace Jeff Horowitz, Co-producer, “Years of Living Dangerously” Greg Dalton, Founder and Host, Climate One

commonwealthclub.org/events

What Does It Mean to Be Muslim? 4/3

Perhaps the world’s most well-known advocate for the environment, Dr. Jane Goodall, DBE, founder of the Jane Goodall Institute (JGI) and a UN Messenger of Peace, has for much of her nearly six-decade-long career worked to raise awareness about the importance of protecting our planet. JGI is a global, community conservation organization operating in more than 30 countries worldwide with a strong presence in Africa’s chimpanzee range. JGI’s approach to species conservation improves the lives of people, animals and the environment by honoring their interconnectedness. Dr. Goodall spends her time traveling around the world nearly 300 days a year, inspiring and mobilizing people with her twin messages of hope and action.

Jeff Horowitz is founder of Avoided Deforestation Partners, a global nonprofit network dedicated to healing the climate by protecting forests, which absorb carbon pollution.

He is also a co-executive producer of “Years of Living Dangerously,” a National Geographic television series focused on the risks and opportunities of global climate change.

In 2014, Horowitz accepted an Emmy for season one of “Years of Living Dangerously.”

The series was founded by legendary producers James Cameron, Arnold Schwarzenegger and the late Jerry Weintraub.

SF • CLIMATE ONE PROGRAM • Location: Marines’ Memorial Theatre, 609 Sutter St., SF • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program; photo by Michael Neugebauer

What Does It Mean to Be Muslim?

Sumbul Ali-Karamali, Author, The Muslim Next Door Maha Elgenaidi, Executive Director, Islamic Network Group Joe Simitian, Supervisor, Santa Clara County—Moderator Additional Panelists TBA

What does it mean to be a Muslim? Join us

APRIL 3–4

Sniffing, Swirling and Sipping 4/3

for this special community forum to learn more about misconceptions as well as Islam as a religion and an identity in modern American and abroad.

Co-presented by the office of Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian

SV • Location: Rinconada Library, Embarcadero Room, 1213 Newell Rd., Palo Alto • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7:00 p.m. program

Sniffing, Swirling and Sipping: Decoding Wine with Bianca Bosker

Bianca Bosker, Former Tech Journalist; Author, Cork Dork: A Wine-Fueled Adventure Among the Obsessive Sommeliers, Big Bottle Hunters, and Rogue Scientists Who Taught Me to Live for Taste

Learn to taste wine like a pro. Bianca Bosker shares her wit, wisdom and experiences navigating the world of wine. Bosker caught the wine bug while working as a reporter and executive tech editor for The Huffington Post.

Trading her reporter’s pen for a spittoon, she embarked on a vinous quest to understand what drives wine obsessives. Going from neophyte to connoisseur over the course of a year, Bosker’s deep dive into the wine world featured tastings with top sommeliers, visits to winemakers in Napa and Sonoma, and intensive training for the Court of Master Sommeliers’ Certified Sommelier Examination. Along the way, there were adventures (and misadventures) in restaurant wine cellars and a visit to New York City’s annual homage to Burgundy, the La Paulée Festival.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing • MLF: Bay Gourmet • Program organizer: Deborah Adeyanju

TUESDAY, APRIL 4 Nob Hill Walking Tour Explore one of San Francisco’s 44 hills, and APRIL/MAY 2017

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APRIL 4–5

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Annie Jacobson 4/4

one of its original “Seven Hills.” Because of great views and its central position, Nob Hill became an exclusive enclave of the rich and famous on the West Coast who built large mansions in the neighborhood. This included prominent tycoons, such as Leland Stanford, and other members of the Big Four. Highlights include the history of four landmark hotels: The Fairmont, Mark Hopkins, Stanford Court, and Huntington Hotel. Visit the city’s largest house of worship, Grace Cathedral, and discover architectural tidbits and anecdotes about the railroad barons and silver kings. A true San Francisco experience of elegance, urbanity, scandals and fabulous views.

SF • Location: Meet in front of Caffe Cento, 801 Powell Street, San Francisco • Time: 1:45 p.m. check-in, 2–4:30 p.m. walk • Notes: Tour operates rain or shine; limited to 20 participants; tickets must be purchased in advance and will not be sold at check-in

Journalist Annie Jacobsen: ESP and the U.S. Government

Annie Jacobsen, Former Contributing Editor, Los Angeles Times Magazine; Author, Phenomena: The Secret History of the U.S. Government’s Investigations into Extrasensory Perception and Psychokinesis

Annie Jacobsen is an investigative journalist and best-selling author who writes about war, weapons, U.S. national security and government secrecy. Her Area 51 was an international best seller and The Pentagon’s Brain was a Pulitzer Prize finalist. Now, she has written what she says is the definitive history of the military’s decades-long investigation into mental powers and phenomena. Jacobsen says that for more than 40 years, the U.S. government has researched extrasensory perception, using it in attempts to locate hostages, fugitives, secret bases and downed fighter jets; to divine other nations’ secrets; and even to predict future threats to national security.

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Janet Gallin 4/5

The agencies involved include the CIA, DIA, NSA, DEA, Navy, Air Force, Army and even the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Now, for the first time, Jacobsen tells the story of these radical, controversial programs, using never-before-seen declassified documents as well as exclusive interviews with more than 50 former CIA and Defense Department scientists, analysts and program managers, as well as the government psychics themselves.

Come hear this unusual program that may challenge your own perceptions of reality.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing • Notes: Photo by Hilary Jones

Jane Mayer: Behind Dark Money

Jane Mayer, Staff Writer, The New Yorker; Author, Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right

Who are the people bankrolling our political system?

Mayer takes us behind the scenes and exposes the powerful group of individuals who are shaping our country. She traces the billions of dollars spent by the Kochs, the Scaifes, the Olins, and the Bradleys and uncovers their influences on policies related to climate change, the economy and more.

Mayer also discusses the results of the 2016 election and what the future might entail if these elite billionaires continue to drive decisions at the state and federal levels.

SV • Location: Mayer Theatre, Santa Clara University, 500 El Camino Real, Santa Clara • Time: 6:15 p.m. check-in, 7 p.m. program, 8 p.m. book signing • Notes: In association with Climate One

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5 Love Letters: Not a Lost Art At All

Janet Gallin, Host, Love Letters Live; Columnist, Examiner.com

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

Made in Marin 4/5

In this two-thumb era of texting, we often gain the joy of immediacy, and sometimes the passion embedded in urgency. But we also lose something—from answering machines to a whole other world of snags.

The speaker will touch on the gripping history of letter writing and talk about why handwritten letters have unmatched power for the short term and for generations to come (as part of your history and legacy to your descendants). She will also discuss what counts as a love letter and how it feels to write and receive one. Remember: What comes from the heart, enters the heart. Every love letter changes a life in some way. Dive in and let Gallin show you how to use the power lurking within.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 4:45 p.m. networking reception, 5:15 p.m. program • MLF: Grownups • Program organizer: John Milford

Alyssa Mastromonaco: Running the Obama White House

Alyssa Mastromonaco, Former Deputy White House Chief of Staff for Operations for President Barack Obama; Author, Who Thought This Was a Good Idea?: And Other Questions You Should Have Answers to When You Work in the White House Dan Pfeiffer, VP, Communications and Policy, GoFundMe; Former Senior Advisor for Strategy and Communications for President Barack Obama; Contributor, CNN; Cohost, “Pod Save America”—Moderator

Join INFORUM for a candid discussion with Alyssa Mastromonaco—and learn what it’s like to be an insider in the competitive world of politics and media. Mastromonaco will answer questions about her memoir documenting her career to date as a national political operative and communications expert.

SF • INFORUM PROGRAM • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. checkin, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

The Other One Percent 4/6

Made in Marin: Cowgirl Creamery and Rustic Bakery

Sue Conley, Co-founder, Cowgirl Creamery Carol Levalley, Co-founder and Co-owner, Rustic Bakery Patricia Unterman, Owner, Hayes Street Grill; Food Writer; Founding Board Member, Ferry Plaza Farmers’ Market—Moderator

Having built a robust local following, Cowgirl Creamery and Rustic Bakery exemplify what Marin foodies seek: socially and environmentally responsible, organic, artisanal, locally sourced food.

Join us as we hear the backstories of why Marin became home to these food craftswomen, how they built their businesses, and what they see coming for their industry.

What are some of their favorite Marin purveyors? What’s the potential for food-focused growth in the county and beyond?

Tastings of Cowgirl Creamery cheese and Rustic Bakery breads, crackers and baked goods will precede the conversation from 7:00-7:45pm. Conversation begins at 7:45 p.m. and ends promptly at 9 p.m.

NB • Location: Outdoor Art Club, One West Blithdale, Mill Valley • Time: 7 p.m. check-in and light hors d’oeuvres, 7:45–9 p.m. program • Notes: This program is sponsored by Relevant Wealth Advisors and an anonymous donor

THURSDAY, APRIL 6 The Other One Percent: Indians in America

Nirvikar Singh, Co-author, The Other One Percent: Indians in America; Professor of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz

Americans of Indian origin often epitomize how waves of immigrants have renewed and enriched the United States. This group now makes up about one percent of our popula-

commonwealthclub.org/events

APRIL 5–10

A Vision of the Eco-Village 4/10

tion, and it is said that no immigrant group has been more successful. In The Other One Percent: Indians in America, Singh and his co-authors provide the first comprehensive, data-based study of the Indian immigrant experience, presenting valuable information for rethinking immigration policies. Singh will shed light on the Indian-Americans’ rapid rise as well as social and economic challenges for this multigenerational, diverse group.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Asia–Pacific Affairs • Program organizers: Lillian Nakagawa, Cynthia Miyashita

Trump’s First 100 Days: Part Three

Panelists TBA Brian Watt, Morning News Anchor, KQED—Moderator

How will President Trump’s 100-day action plan impact our domestic and foreign affairs, health care, education, environment, immigration, economic and trade policies? Who are the new people leading the country and how will they impact public policy? What role will all forms of media play as they cover the new administration? Join The Commonwealth Club and KQED for part three of a four-part series of programs that address the first 100 days of the Trump administration and how this period will shape America over the next four years and beyond.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:45 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program • Notes: In partnership with KQED; image by Mark Fiore

MONDAY, APRIL 10 Longevity Explorers Discussion Group: Better Aging. You. Your Parents.

Dr. Richard G. Caro, Facilitator

This regular discussion group explores new and emerging solutions to the challenges of growing older. Not only do we uncover interesting new products at the intersection of aging and technology, we also conduct a series of ongoing deep-dive discussions into topics such as brain health, apps for seniors, hearing and wearables for seniors. The results of our discussions will be shared with a larger community of older adults interested in improving their quality of life through our partner in this initiative, Tech-enhanced Life, PBC. The discussions are facilitated by Dr. Richard Caro, whom many of you have heard speak at prior Grownups forum events.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 1:30 p.m. check-in, 2–3:30 p.m. program • MLF: Grownups • Program organizer: John Milford

A Vision of the Eco-Village as the Future of Self-Sustaining Neighborhoods

James Ehrlich, Founder, ReGen Villages; Senior Technologist, Stanford University; Senior Fellow, Opus Novum; Entrepreneur-in-Residence, Stanford H-STAR Institute; DesignX Resiliency Team Member, Stanford Center for Design Research

After over 12 years of case study research on organic and biodynamic family farms, intentional communities, and resilient and regenerative design thinking, James Ehrlich founded ReGen Villages. At the forefront of automating thriving abundance for healthy families, ReGen is a Stanford University spin-off company which develops technology-integrated residential areas. Starting with pilot communities—one in Almere, Netherlands and the other at Summit Powder Mountain in Eden, Utah—ReGen Villages intends to reduce burdens on municipal and national governments, creating self-reliant neighborhoods that can power, feed, APRIL/MAY 2017

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APRIL 10–13

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Trump Advisor Roger Stone 4/11

hydrate and digest their own organic waste.

Ehrlich will discuss his inspirational research on farm-to-table communities, detailing his greater vision and plans to realize solutions for the next 2–3 billion people who will live on Earth by 2050.

As a serial entrepreneur in Silicon Valley for 25 years, primarily in the video game and entertainment technology area, Ehrlich designed worlds that made sense. Recently appointed to the U.S. State Department’s joint task force on the nexus of food, water, energy and waste, the genesis of Ehrlich’s personal research came from over a decade of case studies on organic and biodynamic family farms and their connection to the strongest communities around the world.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6:00 p.m. program • MLF: Business & Leadership • Program organizer: Elizabeth Carney

Week to Week Politics Roundtable and Social Hour 4/10/17 Panelists TBA

It’s an important year for all things political, so join us as we explore the biggest, most controversial and sometimes the surprising political issues with expert commentary by panelists who are smart, are civil, and have a good sense of humor. Join our panelists for informative and engaging commentary on political and other major news, audience discussion of the week’s events, and our live news quiz!

And come early before the program to meet other smart and engaged individuals and discuss the news over snacks and wine at our member social (open to all attendees).

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. wine-and-snacks social, 6:30 p.m. program

SFDebate The SFDebate is an open forum for discus-

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THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Inheriting Cancer 4/12

sion on the events of our time. It is a place where you will not only be exposed to opposing points of view, but a safe place where you will be encouraged to find and speak up for yours. SFDebate is also a meeting of minds, and we follow every meeting with continued debate and conversation at a nearby bar/ restaurant.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7–8:45 p.m. debate

TUESDAY, APRIL 11 Trump Advisor Roger Stone: The Making of the President J. Roger Stone, Former Advisor to Donald Trump; Author, The Making of the President 2016: How Donald Trump Orchestrated a Revolution

On November 8, one of the most contentious and polarizing presidential elections in American history came to an abrupt end when heavily favored presidential candidate Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald J. Trump. Many Americans were left asking: “How did this happen?”

Roger Stone, a veteran Republican strategist and former Trump advisor, gives us an insider look on how the Trump campaign appealed to “forgotten Americans” and performed the greatest upset in American political history.

Join us for an intriguing conversation on how a grassroots guerrilla campaign competed against the Clinton political machine and won.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 12 Inheriting Cancer: When Risks Are in Your Genes

Evan Goldberg, Executive Vice President of Development, Oracle NetSuite Global

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

T.R. Reid 4/13

Business Unit; Founder, BRCA Foundation Alan Ashworth, Ph.D., FRS, President, UCSF Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center; Senior Vice President for Cancer Services, UCSF Health; Professor of Medicine, Division of Hematology/Oncology, Department of Medicine, UCSF Allison Kurian, M.D., M.S., Associate Professor of Medicine and of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine Dorene Kastelman, Late-Stage Ovarian Cancer Survivor, BRCA Awareness Advocate

Cancer might be in your DNA. Cancer-causing mutations in the BRCA gene came roaring into our collective consciousness when Angelina Jolie candidly shared her decision to undergo a double mastectomy to prevent inherited cancer. How does a BRCA mutation affect the risk of cancer for both men and women? How are genetic cancers different than other cancers, and who should be tested? Join us for a panel discussion on genetic cancer, treatment and prevention.

Genetic counselors from Color Genomics will be on hand to demonstrate how testing works.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m. program • MLF: Health & Medicine • Program organizer: Judy Chan • Notes: In association with the BRCA Foundation

THURSDAY, APRIL 13 Tracking Silicon Valley’s Ups and Downs

Russ Hancock, President and CEO, Joint Venture Silicon Valley

Since 1995, Joint Venture Silicon Valley has released its annual Silicon Valley Index, a report that has tracked Silicon Valley’s ups and downs during booms and busts. At the be-

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Barry Strauss 4/13

Sam Altman 4/13

ginning of a new year, what trends are emerging and what social and economic challenges are most critical to tackle? Come hear about how Silicon Valley’s economy is faring amidst another economic boom.

enue required? According to Reid, this can be done. In this program, he’ll detail exactly how America can rewrite the tax code, in this case learning from other democracies around the world.

Journalist T.R. Reid: How to Clean up the U.S. Tax System

How Leaders Can Gain Competitive Advantage Through Lessons from History

SV • Location: SPUR, 76 S. 1st St., San Jose Time: 12:30 p.m. program • Notes: Presented

by SPUR

T.R. Reid, Correspondent, The Washington Post; Commentator, National Public Radio; Author, A Fine Mess: A Global Quest for a Simpler, Fairer, and More Efficient Tax System

On the eve of the annual tax deadline, here’s a program that promises to provide ammunition for the next time you complain to elected officials about the hassles and inequities of the U.S. tax system.

Noted journalist T.R. Reid points out the following: Last year, Americans spent more than 6 billion hours and $12 billion filing their taxes. In the Netherlands, the average filing time is 15 minutes; in Estonia, it takes 7 minutes. According to Reid, Congress has given its members various tax breaks and deductions that other Americans never receive.

In Slovakia, by contrast, government representatives pay 5 percent more in tax. Reid goes on to say that U.S. billionaires can pay relatively very little tax—and sometimes no tax at all. France, Norway and Switzerland all have wealth taxes designed to reduce economic inequality.

Historically, there have been total rewrites of the U.S. tax code every 32 years—in 1922, 1954 and 1986. This means the next rewrite is due in 2018, and Congress and President Trump will need to begin revamping the code this year. Can they write a new tax code that is both fair and simple? Can they cut tax rates and still bring in the rev-

commonwealthclub.org/events

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11 a.m. check-in, noon program, 1 p.m. book signing • Notes: Photo by Jon Groner

Barry Strauss, Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor in Humanistic Studies, Department of History at Cornell University; Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution; Author

In his book, Masters of Command: Alexander, Hannibal, Caesar, and the Genius of Leadership, Strauss draws lessons from the experiences of history’s greatest generals. Strauss explains that a key component of these leaders’ successes was their ability to inspire loyalty from their troops. They did so by leading by example and, in turn, earned their soldiers’ trust and respect. In this program, Strauss will apply these lessons to today’s executives who strive to outperform competition and create an engaged, high-achieving workforce.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities, International Relations, Business & Leadership • Program organizer: Norma Walden • Notes: Photo by Dede Hatch

Sam Altman: Social Change and Startups

Sam Altman, President, Y Combinator; Co-chairman of OpenAI Nellie Bowles, Silicon Valley Correspondent; Moderator, Vice News Tonight

Sam Altman, 31, has been one of Silicon Valley’s brightest stars for years as a found-

APRIL 13

Future of Digital Marketing 4/17

er, investor and president of Y Combinator.

But, more recently, Sam and Y Combinator have both been making headlines for their involvement in some of today’s most contentious political and social issues.

Y Combinator’s new “basic income project,” based in Oakland, will give 100 families a minimum wage with the goal of exploring alternatives to the existing social safety net. Sam has also been an outspoken critic of the Trump administration and has backed “track Trump,” an online tool that monitors the promises President Trump delivers on, and those on which he comes up short. Y Combinator also recently welcomed the ACLU into their winter 2017 class and will help the ACLU turn its recent $24 million donation haul into concrete actions and organizational growth.

Finally, Sam is in the beginning stages of a new project focused on finding a way to reduce housing costs through the creation of a smart city prototype.

Sam was named president of Y Combinator, Silicon Valley’s largest startup incubator, in 2014. Y Combinator’s portfolio includes heavyweights, such as Airbnb, Dropbox and Stripe. Sam began his tech career as CEO of Loopt, which was acquired in 2012 and was included in Y Combinator’s first round of funded companies in 2005. Sam is also a personal investor in several of today’s most successful startups, including Airbnb, Stripe, Reddit, Asana and Pinterest.

Join INFORUM, Sam and moderator Nellie Bowles of Vice for an insightful and timely conversation about tech, politics and everything in between.

SF • INFORUM PROGRAM • Location: Marines’ Memorial Theatre, 609 Sutter St., 2nd floor, San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing APRIL/MAY 2017

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APRIL 17–19

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

David Callahan 4/17

MONDAY, APRIL 17 The Future of Digital Marketing

Pete Kim, CEO, MightyHive Nikesh Desai, CEO, InvestingChannel Mason Garrity, VP, Strategy, 3Q Digital Anneka Gupta, CPO, LiveRamp—Moderator

Digital marketing is constantly evolving with incredible advancements in technology, partnerships, acquisitions and new strategic thinking. Ad-blocking, artificial intelligence, programmatic media buying, and big data are constant buzzwords we hear about the marketing landscape. Join this panel of experts across agency, publishing and technology as they discuss the biggest challenges and opportunities ahead for the next year.

Mason Garrity is vice president of strategy at 3Q Digital. He has more than 8 years experience in digital marketing, starting in college with Kayak.com. Prior to 3Q Digital, he co-founded Noosphere Marketing.

Nikesh Desai is the co-founder and CEO of InvestingChannel, an interactive media platform that aggregates independent financial news. Prior, Nikesh co-founded the consultancy Giant Step Strategies and served as VP of business development at TheStreet.com. An influential figure in advertising technology, Pete Kim has worked with the world’s largest advertisers on improving marketing strategies across every industry vertical. He has held senior positions in product management, sales, and business development at Google and Yahoo!. Moderator Anneka Gupta is chief product officer of LiveRamp, where she oversees the execution and strategy of LiveRamp’s roadmap.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception 6 p.m. program • MLF: Science & Technology • Program organizer: Gerald Harris

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THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Krista Tippett 4/18

Digging Deep into Philanthropy— the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

David Callahan, Ph.D., Princeton; Founder, Demos Think Tank; Founder, Insidephilanthropy.com; Author, The Givers: Money, Power, and Philanthropy in a New Gilded Age Emmett Carson, President, Silicon Valley Community Foundation Nick Tedesco, Senior Philanthropic Adviser, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Philanthropy Centre—Moderator

David Callahan holds a doctorate in politics from Princeton and is the author of seven previous nonfiction books, including The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are Doing Wrong to Get Ahead and Fortunes of Change: The Rise of the Liberal Rich and the Remaking America. Callahan’s latest investigation focuses on “the secretive world of elite philanthropists—and how they’re quietly wielding ever more power to shape American life in ways both good and bad.”

While media attention focuses on famous philanthropists, such as Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Charles Koch, Callahan says thousands of donors are at work below the radar promoting a widerange of causes, converting fortunes into influence, with deep impact on government policy.

Emmett Carson, president of the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, now with $8 billion in assets, has become a major player in Bay Area and national philanthropy, especially for tech givers and will give his perspective on the philanthropic world.

Come hear about a power shift in American society that Callahan says has implications for us all.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing • Notes: Photo by Alexander Paris

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

Vincente Fox 4/19

TUESDAY, APRIL 18 Krista Tippett: Heart, Mind and Spirit

Krista Tippett, Host, “On Being”; Author, Becoming Wise: An Inquiry into the Mystery and Art of Living Rev. Alan Jones, Dean Emeritus, Grace Cathedral San Francisco—Moderator

The heart of Krista Tippett’s work on her NPR program and podcast, “On Being,” has been to shine a light on people whose insights kindle in us a sense of wonder and courage.

She interviews a variety of people, including scientists, poets, activists and theologians from an array of faiths who have all opened themselves up to Tippett’s compassionate yet searching conversations. In her latest book, Becoming Wise, Tippett distills the insights she has gleaned from these luminous conversations into a master class about living.

Join us for an enlightening discussion about her work and insights into her fiercely hopeful vision of humanity for this century.

SF • Location: Marines’ Memorial Theater, 609 Sutter St., 2nd floor, San Francisco • Time: 5:30 a.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book-signing • Notes: Each ticket comes with a copy of Krista Tippett’s book, Becoming Wise: An Inquiry into the Mystery and Art of Living; photo by Peter Beck

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 19 Vicente Fox, Former President of Mexico: Immigration, the Wall, and the Future of U.S.–Mexican Relations

Vicente Fox, President of Mexico, 2000– 2006

To the American public, Vicente Fox may be Mexico’s most well-known, modern politician. Prior to becoming president, he received a top management diploma from

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Let’s Talk About Death 4/19

Harvard Business School and went on to become president of Coca-Cola for Mexico and Latin America. He has most recently made national headlines by telling President Trump that Mexico “will not pay for that [expletive] wall,” and continues to engage President Trump on social media.

Fox was the first candidate from an opposition party to be elected president. Currently, he is actively involved in encouraging leadership and creating opportunities for less favored people through his organization Centro Fox. What are the realities and possibilities for the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico? Here’s a rare chance to get a unique perspective from one of Mexico’s most prominent and outspoken thought leaders.

SF • Location: Marines’ Memorial Theatre, 609 Sutter St., 2nd floor, San Francisco • Time: 11 a.m. check-in, noon program

Let’s Talk About Death: Get Ready, Get Set, Go

Suzette Sherman, End of Life Speaker; CEO, Founder and Blogger, SevenPonds Sally Shannon, End of Life Coach and Consultant; Home Funeral Guide, Threshold Coaching and Consulting

Historically, Americans have been culturally conditioned to avoid the subject of death.

We are reluctant to talk about it, and many of us have not even thought about how we want to live at the end of our lives. As a result, the vast majority of people approaching the end of life are completely unprepared to die.

In this presentation, Sherman and Shannon will review ways that participants can plan appropriately for the end of life. Topics covered will include: advance directives; Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST); home funerals; and options for disposition, including cremation and green

commonwealthclub.org/events

Cleopatra, by Stacy Schiff 4/19

burial. They will also discuss dying at home, voluntarily stopping eating and drinking, and California’s recently enacted End of Life Options Act.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 4:45 p.m. networking reception, 5:15 p.m. program • MLF: Grownups • Program organizer: John Milford

Humanities West Book Discussion: Cleopatra, by Stacy Schiff Join us to discuss Cleopatra by Stacy Schiff, the Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer who brings to life one of the most intriguing women in human history. Though the palace of the last queen of Egypt actually did shimmer with onyx, garnets and gold, it was richer still in political and sexual intrigue.

Cleopatra died young, at 39, but first married two brothers, dispatching one in a brutal civil war while they were still teenagers, and poisoning the other, before eliminating a sister as well. She had a son with Julius Caesar and three children with Marc Antony, complicating but probably prolonging wealthy Egypt’s fatal embrace by the relatively uncivilized Romans. In a masterly return to classical sources, Schiff boldly separates fact from fiction to rescue the magnetic queen whose dramatic death ushered in a new world order.

Discussion led by Lynn Harris.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

#Resist with Annie Leonard and Shannon Coulter

Shannon Coulter, Co-Founder, #GrabYourWallet Boycott Annie Leonard, Executive Director, Greenpeace USA; Founder, Story of Stuff Greg Dalton, Founder and Host, Climate One

APRIL 19–20

Andrew Campbell 4/20

The campaign to pressure retail companies to distance themselves from Trump brands claimed victory when Nordstrom dropped Ivanka Trump’s brand and Uber CEO Travis Kalanick resigned from the president’s business advisory council. But what did the campaign really accomplish other than a “gotcha moment”? Isn’t it good for Trump to be influenced by business leaders grounded in reality?

Research shows some of the campaigns designed to pressure companies have mixed results. Some win, a few get traction and then fizzle, and many never go anywhere. Have you heard of a campaign to pressure banks financing the Dakota Access Pipeline opposed

by Native Americans? We didn’t think so. In one success story, Facebook was pressured to run its data centers on clean energy rather than coal. Greenpeace cleverly used Facebook for its “unfriend coal” campaign, and ultimately the tech giant pledged to gradually move to 100 percent clean power.

Join a conversation on pressuring companies and personal brands. What works, what doesn’t and what can you do if you care about putting your money to work in the move to a cleaner economy.

SF • CLIMATE ONE PROGRAM • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. networking reception

THURSDAY, APRIL 20 Our Toxic World: Is It Making Us Sick?

Andrew Campbell, M.D., Former Medical Director, Medical Center for Immune and Toxic Disorders; Former Medical Director, Chronic Fatigue and Immune Dysfunction Center; Editor-in-Chief, Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine, Advances in MindBody Medicine, The International Journal of Complementary and Alternative Medicine, APRIL/MAY 2017

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APRIL 20–24

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Dr. Elisabeth Rosenthal 4/20

Natural Solutions

Toxins are everywhere. They’re in our personal care and cleaning products, sofas, carpets, and clothes. Before some women leave the house, they may put on over a hundred toxic products. Most of these toxins have not been studied for their safety and cause harm at doses lower than previously thought. They are synergistic, causing greater harm when combined. Dr. Campbell points out that certain countries will not import American meat or food due to the high level of harmful substances fed to our animals or used on our crops.

Come to this forum and learn more about toxins.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program • MLF: Health & Medicine • Program organizers: Susan Downs, Bill Grant

San Francisco Architecture Walking Tour Explore San Francisco’s Financial District with historian Rick Evans and learn the history and stories behind some of our city’s remarkable structures, streets and public squares.

Hear about the famous architects who influenced the building of San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake. Discover hard-to-find rooftop gardens, Art Deco lobbies, unique open spaces and historic landmarks. This is a tour for locals, with hidden gems you can only find on foot!

SF • Location: Meet in the Lobby of the Galleria Park Hotel, 191 Sutter St., San Francisco • Time: 1:45 p.m. check-in, 2–4:30 p.m. walk • Notes: The tour involves walking up and down stairs but covers less than one mile of walking in the Financial District; tour operates rain or shine; limited to 20 participants; tickets must be purchased in advance and will not be sold at check-in; photo by Angelo DeSantis

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Battle For Syria 4/21

Dr. Elisabeth Rosenthal: Getting Big Business out of Health Care

Dr. Elisabeth Rosenthal, Editor-in-Chief, Kaiser Health News; Former Correspondent, The New York Times; Author, An American Sickness: How Healthcare Became Big Business and How You Can Take It Back

Elisabeth Rosenthal will reveal the dark details of the American health care system.

Breaking down the monolithic business into its individual industries—the hospitals, doctors, insurance companies and drug manufacturers—that together constitute our health care system, Rosenthal will divulge a history of American medicine that’s never been told before. She will also tell patients exactly how they can fight back.

After 22 years as a correspondent at The New York Times (where she covered a variety of beats from health care to environment), Rosenthal joined Kaiser Health News last September. She is a graduate of Stanford University and Harvard Medical School and briefly practiced medicine in a New York City emergency room before converting to journalism.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing • Notes: Photo by Nina Subin

FRIDAY, APRIL 21 Battle For Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East

Christopher Phillips, Ph.D in International Relations, London School of Economics; Senior Lecturer in International Relations (with an Emphasis on Contemporary Jordan and Syria), Queen Mary’s College in London; Author, The Battle for Syria Jonathan Curiel, Journalist—Moderator

Phillips will discuss The Battle for Syria, his latest, highly praised book, and how six ex-

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

Mastering Migraines 4/24

ternal protagonists, including the U.S. and Russia, have competed for influence in Syria—a key battleground. Philips, who founded the Syria and Its Neighbours Policy Initiative, has called the Syrian tragedy a disaster of global proportions and the greatest human catastrophe of the 21st century.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program, 1 p.m. book signing • MLF: Middle East • Program organizer: Celia Menczel

MONDAY, APRIL 24 Mastering Migraines: Neuroscience Nutrition and the Art of Avoiding Your Triggers

Steve Blake, ScD, Faculty Nutritional Biochemist, Hawaii Pacific Neuroscience; Research Scientist; Author, Mastering Migraines, Parkinson’s Disease: Dietary Regulation of Dopamine, Vitamins and Minerals Demystified, A Nutritional Approach to Alzheimer’s Disease; Co-author, Mosby’s Drug Guide for Nurses

True migraines involve not only pain but also often nausea and light sensitivity. They may occur many times each month. To reduce the frequency and severity of migraines, one can identify the most common food and nonfood triggers, avoiding personal triggers.

We will explore many scientific approaches that may help to reduce reliance on migraine drugs. For example, ginger root tea can not only help with nausea, but it was also found to lower migraine pain just as much as the powerful drug sumatriptan. You will learn many ways to lower excitability in the brain, potentially reducing migraine attacks. From ice packs on the back of the neck to coenzyme Q10, Blake will outline some of the many safer, natural remedies for migraine headaches with the goal of helping you to become free from migraine pain.

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

APRIL 24–26

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

The Giving Code 4/26

Blake recently finished a clinical study successfully using nutrients to combat neurodegeneration. He also authored Diet Doctor, software used to analyze dietary nutrients.

For more information, visit drsteveblake. com.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. networking reception, noon program • MLF: Health & Medicine • Program organizer: Bill Grant

Middle East Forum Discussion The Middle East Forum discussion group— which primarily covers the Middle East, North Africa and Afghanistan— has been meeting monthly for nine years. We are not a debate group. Each month we discuss timely, cultural subjects in a civil atmosphere with respect for others and their opinions. Students are particularly welcome.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. program • MLF: Middle East • Program organizer: Celia Menczel

Bonds of Union

Bridget Ford, Professor of History, California State University, East Bay; Author, Bonds of Union: Religion, Race, and Politics in a Civil War Borderland

Americans today worry that social and political divisions threaten our democracy and our futures together, bound by one nation.

Bonds of Union offers valuable historical perspective from the Civil War era, a period in which the ties holding Americans together frayed and then broke. But Ford shows the ways diverse Americans maintained and strengthened the connective tissue that held them together, even at a time of extreme division and bloodshed. The focus of her talk will be the establishment of publicly funded schools for all Americans, and the new Republican Party’s critical involvement in that effort in the 1850s. She demonstrates that

commonwealthclub.org/events

the United States has a longer, deeper history of imagining an inclusive society than we typically imagine, one that stretches back to the decades before the Civil War.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

SFDebate The SFDebate is an open forum for discussion on the events of our time. It is a place where you will not only be exposed to opposing points of view, but a safe place where you will be encouraged to find and speak up for yours. SFDebate is also a meeting of minds, and we follow every meeting with continued debate and conversation at a nearby bar/ restaurant.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7–8:45 p.m. debate

TUESDAY, APRIL 25 Jewish Justices of the Supreme Court, from Brandeis to Kagan David Dalin, Ph.D., Author, Jewish Justices of the Supreme Court, from Brandeis to Kagan

Dr. Dalin will cover the lives, legal careers, judicial legacies, and Jewish background of the eight Jews who have served or who currently serve as justices of the U.S. Supreme Court: Louis D. Brandeis, Benjamin N. Cardozo, Felix Frankfurter, Arthur Goldberg, Abe Fortas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen G. Breyer and Elena Kagan, who was appointed by Barack Obama in 2010.

He will also discuss how Woodrow Wilson’s historic appointment of Louis D. Brandeis in 1916 began the tradition of a “Jewish Seat” on the Supreme Court, and the role that antisemitism did or did not play in these eight Justices’ legal careers and Senate

confirmation hearings.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

Texas Surprise

Skip Averitt, Chair, Texas Clean Energy Coalition; Republican Former State Senator Greg Dalton, Founder and Host, Climate One Additional Speakers TBA

When Californians think of Texas, images of JR Ewing and pump jacks quickly come to mind. But the Lone Star State is greener than you think. It leads the country in wind power, thanks to a law signed by Governor George W. Bush. Texans also claim the state can comply with President Obama’s Clean Power Plan with technologies and policies already on hand. Ranchers and former oil men are dipping their toes into renewable energy.

What else is in the clean energy pipeline?

Join a conversation with Texas energy leaders about fossil fuels and renewables in America’s most prominent energy-exporting state.

SF • CLIMATE ONE PROGRAM • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. networking reception • Notes: Windmill photo by Leaflet

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 26 The Giving Code

Alexa Cortés Culwell, Co-founder, Open Impact; Co-author, The Giving Code: Silicon Valley Nonprofits and Philanthropy Peter Fortenbaugh, CEO, Boys and Girls Club of the Peninsula Carol Larson, President and CEO, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Daniel Lurie, CEO, Tipping Point Heather McLeod Grant, Co-founder, Open Impact; Co-author, The Giving Code: APRIL/MAY 2017

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APRIL 26–28

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Chris Whipple 4/27

Silicon Valley Nonprofits and Philanthropy Kerry Dolan, Assistant Managing Editor, Forbes—Moderator

Why are Silicon Valley’s nonprofits struggling to meet demand in one of the wealthiest and most sophisticated regions in the world? In addition to national or global causes, why aren’t more Silicon Valley philanthropists directing their dollars toward local organizations and issues? And why hasn’t more entrepreneurial ingenuity been harnessed to solve local problems?

A new report, The Giving Code: Silicon Valley Nonprofits and Philanthropy by Alexa Cortés Culwell and Heather McLeod Grant, found that despite a nearly $5 billion boom in philanthropy in Silicon Valley—driven by a 150 percent increase in individual giving from 2008 to 2013—the region’s nonprofits are struggling to keep up with growing demand for their services, having less than three months’ cash on hand.

The report reveals a shocking prosperity paradox in Silicon Valley with skyrocketing wealth found alongside growing displacement of vulnerable populations and declining quality of life. Even as Silicon Valley boasts more than 76,000 millionaires and billionaires, its middle class is shrinking—nearly 30 percent of residents (roughly 800,000 people) rely on some form of public or private assistance to get by.

Our panel, comprised of prominent philanthropists and local nonprofit leaders, will take a deeper look into Silicon Valley’s giving culture.

SV • Location: Oshman Family JCC, Schultz Cultural Hall, 3921 Fabian Way, Palo Alto • Time: 6:00 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program

Week to Week Politics Roundtable and Social Hour 4/26/17 Panelists TBA

It’s never a dull moment in politics these

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Cody Cassidy and Paul Doherty: 1,000 Wild Ways to Die 4/27

days, and we’ll discuss the biggest, most controversial and sometimes the surprising political issues with expert commentary by panelists who are smart, are civil, and have a good sense of humor. Join our panelists for informative and engaging commentary on political and other major news, audience discussion of the week’s events, and our live news quiz!

And come early before the program to meet other smart and engaged individuals and discuss the news over snacks and wine at our member social (open to all attendees).

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. wine-and-snacks social, 6:30 p.m. program

THURSDAY APRIL 27 Journalist Chris Whipple: Secrets of the White House Gatekeepers

Chris Whipple, Documentary Filmmaker; Author, The Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency Joe Garofoli, Senior Political Writer, San Francisco Chronicle—Moderator

Can Donald Trump, the ultimate outsider, learn how to be an effective president? According to author and documentarian Chris Whipple, Trump cannot be effective unless he empowers a strong chief of staff to take charge of his White House and execute his agenda.

Drawing on his extensive interviews with two former presidents and 17 living chiefs of staff, Whipple says this is one of many lessons learned by such diverse figures as Dick Cheney, Rahm Emanuel, Donald Rumsfeld and Leon Panettta. Whipple says chiefs of staff, often referred to as “the gatekeepers,” can make or break an administration. Whipple will offer new insight into our understanding of presidential history—from how James Baker’s expert managing of the White House, the press and Capitol Hill paved the way for the

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

Reagan Revolution to how Watergate, the Iraq War and even the bungled Obamacare rollout might, conversely, have been prevented by a more effective chief. Come hear a fascinating look at this unique fraternity and the inner workings of the White House.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program, 1 p.m. book signing • Notes: Photo by David Hume Kennerly

Cody Cassidy and Paul Doherty: 1,000 Wild Ways to Die

Cody Cassidy, Co-author, And Then You’re Dead: What Really Happens If You Get Swallowed by a Whale, Are Shot from a Cannon, or Go Barreling Over Niagara Paul Doherty, Co-director and Senior Staff Scientist, Exploratorium; Co-author, And Then You’re Dead: What Really Happens If You Get Swallowed by a Whale, Are Shot from a Cannon, or Go Barreling Over Niagara

How far could you get digging a hole to China? How long could you last if you stood on the surface of the sun? Did you ever want insights into the physics, anatomy and astronomy behind some of the weirdest deaths you can think of? Paul Doherty, a senior scientist at San Francisco’s Exploratorium, and co-author Cody Cassidy answer these questions and more. Join us for an interesting conversation about some of the most cartoonish, outlandish and impossible deaths and how these fantastical scenarios relate to real science.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:00 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing

FRIDAY, APRIL 28 Trump and the Middle East

Alon Sachar, Middle East Peace Advisor; Co-author, A Path to Peace

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

APRIL 28–MAY 4

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

John Mackey 5/1

Eddy Simonian, Master’s in International Studies Maher Kalaji, Ph.D. in Chemistry Banafsheh Keynoush, Ph.D., Middle East Scholar; Author, Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes—Moderator

A distinguished panel will discuss their perspectives on Donald Trump’s presidency as well as policies and actions which may lead to peace or further conflict in the region. Alon Sachar has worked to advance Middle East peace under two U.S. administrations and cowrote A Path to Peace (with Senator George Mitchell). Maher Kalaji is a frequent contributor to our Middle East forum, and Eddy Simonian, an Assyrian Christian, wrote his master’s thesis on Lebanon’s sectarian conflict.

Along with moderator Banafsheh Keynoush, the three panelists will present their perspectives on the potential effects of Trump’s words and actions in the Middle East.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program • MLF: Middle East • Program organizer: Celia Menczel

MONDAY, MAY 1 Achieve More, Stress Less: Have Fun Getting Better Results from Fewer Resources

Scott Sonenshein, Ph.D., Chaired Professor, School of Business at Rice University; Author, Stretch: Unlock the Power of Less— and Achieve More Than You Ever Imagined

Would you like to achieve more with less—at work and at home—and be happier and more creative at the same time? Scott Sonenshein, author of Stretch, will teach us how to do it!

In a constantly changing world, fewer and fewer corporate and personal situations can be handled using practiced routines. Instead, we need to be resilient and use the resources we

commonwealthclub.org/events

Caitlyn Jenner 5/3

already have; we need to stretch beyond our normal set of solutions, colleagues and friends.

Sonenshein has rigorously researched techniques that produce results in a fluid environment. Teams learn to improvise quickly and pull in ideas from other disciplines. They play improvisational jazz instead of classical music, and they have fun doing it! We can use the same tools to improve our personal lives and relationships. So come stretch out of your usual routine! Learn how to improve both your organization and yourself.

Sonenshein holds a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. He also has degrees from the University of Cambridge and the University of Virginia. He teaches organizational behavior, change and leadership.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Business & Leadership, Personal Growth • Program organizer: Eric Siegel

John Mackey: Co-Founder and CEO of Whole Foods Market

John Mackey, Co-founder and CEO, Whole Foods Market; Co-author, The Whole Foods Diet: The Lifesaving Plan for Health and Longevity

Mackey makes the case for why a whole food, plant-based diet is optimum for a long, healthy, disease-free life. As one of the leaders of this plant-based movement, Mackey shares his vision and discusses the science behind changing the way we eat. He will also address food, politics and health as well as the ethical and environmental impact of our dietary habits.

SV • Location: Cubberley Theatre (near Montrose and Middlefield), 4000 Middlefield Road, Palo Alto • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7:00 p.m. program, 8:00 p.m. book signing • Notes: This program is part of our Food Lit series, underwritten by the Bernard Osher Foundation; photo from Whole Foods Market

WEDNESDAY, MAY 3 An Evening with Caitlyn Jenner

Caitlyn Jenner, Author, The Secrets of My Life Buzz Bissinger, Contributing Editor, Vanity Fair; Co-author, The Secrets of My Life; Author, Friday Night Lights

Join us for a rare conversation with one of the world’s most prominent transgender women. As former Olympic athlete Bruce Jenner became Caitlyn over the past few years, her personal journey has been public, painful and inspiring. What has her path of discovery taught her about truth, and what has it revealed about the challenges facing the transgender community? Bring your questions, and get ready to hear how a story of pain and deception can ultimately become one of embracing a person’s true identity.

SF • Location: TBA • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 7 p.m. program • Notes: This program is part of our Good Lit series, underwritten by the Bernard Osher Foundation; photo by James White

THURSDAY, MAY 4 Chinatown Walking Tour Enjoy a Commonwealth Club neighborhood adventure. Join Rick Evans for a memorable, midday walk and discover the history and mysteries of Chinatown. Explore colorful alleys and side streets. Visit a Taoist temple, an herbal store, the site of the first public school in the state and the famous Fortune Cookie Factory.

SF • Location: Meet in front of Starbucks, 359 Grant Ave. (corner of Grant and Bush, near Chinatown Gate), San Francisco • Time: 9:45 a.m. check-in, 10–12:30 p.m. walk • Notes: Temple visit requires walking up three flights of stairs; tour operates rain or shine; limited to 12 participants; tickets must be purchased in advance APRIL/MAY 2017

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MAY 4–8

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant 5/4 and will not be sold at check-in; photo by H Sanchez/Flickr

The Witches: Salem 1692

Stacy Schiff, Pulitzer Prize Winner; Author, The Witches: Suspicion, Betrayal, and Hysteria in 1692 Salem

The Witches is Pulitzer Prize winner Stacy Schiff’s account of a primal mystery. Women’s suffrage, Prohibition and the Salem witch trials are three rare moments when women played a central role in American history, and in Salem it was adolescent girls who stood at center stage. The panic began during a raw Massachusetts winter, when a minister’s niece began to writhe and roar. The panic spread quickly, as neighbors accused neighbors, husbands accused wives and parents, and children accused each other. The witch trials ended less than a year later, but not before 19 men and women had been hanged and an elderly man crushed to death. Drawing masterfully on the archives, Schiff introduces us to the strains of Puritan adolescent life and the vulnerability of wilderness settlements adrift from the mother country, and she brilliantly aligns them with our own anxieties: religious provocations, crowdsourcing and invisible enemies.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond • Notes: Photo by Elena Seibert

How Cities Can Solve the Climate Challenge

Carl Pope, Co-author (with Michael Bloomberg), Climate of Hope: How Cities, Businesses, and Citizens Can Save the Planet; Former Executive Director, Sierra Club Greg Dalton, Founder and Host, Climate One Additional Speakers TBA

Mayors around the country are bypassing national politics and working around federal

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restrictions to both clean up their cities and foster growth in renewable energy. In red and blue states, local leaders are solving traffic congestion, promoting smart growth, and preparing for the impacts climate disruption will have on public health, roads and other infrastructure.

Cities are a good news climate story; most reductions in carbon pollution actually happen at the city and regional level.

Carl Pope teamed with former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to write a book about how cities are cleaning up their regional economies. Join us for a conversation with an environmental legend and Bay Area leaders who are advancing sustainable communities despite enthusiasm for the brown economy in Washington, D.C. SF • CLIMATE ONE PROGRAM • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. networking reception

Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant: Option B

Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Officer, Facebook; Author, Option B Adam Grant, Wharton Professor; Author, Option B

Join Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant, authors of Option B, as they talk about building resilience and moving forward after life’s inevitable setbacks. After the sudden death of her husband, Sandberg felt certain she and her children would never feel pure joy again. Her friend Adam Grant, a psychologist at Wharton, told her there are steps people can take to recover and even rebound.

Option B combines Sandberg’s emotional insights and Grant’s eye-opening research on finding strength in the face of adversity.

The authors will share what they’ve learned on helping others in crisis; developing compassion for ourselves; raising strong children; and creating resilient families, communities

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

and workplaces. Many of these lessons can be applied to ordinary struggles, allowing us to build resilience for whatever lies ahead.

Sandberg and Grant will discuss the capacity of the human spirit to persevere ... and to rediscover joy.

SF • Location: The Castro Theatre, 429 Castro Street, San Francisco • Time: 6:00 p.m. checkin and premium reception, 7:00 p.m. program • Notes: Photo by Matt Albiani

FRIDAY, MAY 5 The Islamic Enlightenment: The Modern Struggle Between Faith and Reason

Christopher de Bellaigue, M.A. in Oriental Studies, Cambridge; Journalist; Author, The Islamic Enlightenment; Contributor, The New Yorker; Former Tehran Correspondent, The Economist Jonathan Curiel, Journalist; Author, Al’ America: Travels Through America’s Arab and Islamic Roots—Moderator

Christopher de Bellaigue, who has covered the Middle East since 1996, will discuss his latest book, The Islamic Enlightenment, which discusses Islamic history as it relates to the modern world. De Bellaigue posits that, contrary to popular opinion, remarkable men and women from across the Muslim world have welcomed modern ideals and practices.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. networking reception, noon program, 1 p.m. book signing • MLF: Middle East • Program organizer: Celia Menczel

MONDAY, MAY 8 Longevity Explorers Discussion Group: Better Aging. You. Your Parents.

Dr. Richard G. Caro, Facilitator

This regular discussion group explores new

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

MAY 8–9

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Wendy MacNaughton and Samin Nosrat: Mastering the Elements of Good Cooking 5/8

and emerging solutions to the challenges of growing older. Not only do we uncover interesting new products at the intersection of aging and technology, we also conduct a series of ongoing deep-dive discussions into topics such as brain health, apps for seniors, hearing and wearables for seniors. The results of our discussions will be shared with a larger community of older adults interested in improving their quality of life through our partner in this initiative, Tech-enhanced Life, PBC. The discussions are facilitated by Dr. Richard Caro, whom many of you have heard speak at prior Grownups forum events.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 1:30 p.m. check-in, 2–3:30 p.m. program • MLF: Grownups • Program organizer: John Milford

American Enlightenments: Pursuing Happiness in the Age of Reason

Caroline Winterer, Professor of History and, by courtesy, of Classics, Stanford University; Anthony P. Meier Family Professor in the Humanities; Director, Stanford Humanities Center; Author, American Enlightenments: Pursuing Happiness in the Age of Reason

Monday Night Philosophy investigates the accepted myth of the “American Enlightenment,” which suggests that the rejection of monarchy and establishment of a new republic in the U.S. in the 18th century was the realization of utopian philosophies born in the intellectual salons of Europe, which radiated outward to the New World. Winterer argues that this national mythology of a unitary, patriotic era of Enlightenment in America was created during the Cold War to shield against the threat of totalitarianism, and Americans in the 1700s were influenced by European models in far more complex ways than commonly thought. Winterer explores which of our ideas and ideals are truly rooted in the 18th century and which are inventions and

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mystifications of more recent times.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

Samin Nosrat and Wendy MacNaughton: Mastering the Elements of Good Cooking

Samin Nosrat, Chef; Author, Salt, Fat, Acid, Heat: Mastering the Elements of Good Cooking Wendy MacNaughton, Columnist, The California Sunday Magazine; Illustrator, Salt, Fat, Acid, Heat: Mastering the Elements of Good Cooking Margo True, Food Editor, Sunset Magazine—Moderator

Samin Nosrat has taught everyone how to cook—professional chefs, children and even Michael Pollan—by mastering just four important elements: salt, fat, acid and heat. In this program, Nosrat will share her kitchen philosophy of making meals delicious by enhancing, balancing and adding texture and flavor. Hear the hows and whys of what good cooking can be.

Nosrat trained under Alice Waters at Chez Panisse and has been called “the next Julia Child” by NPR’s All Things Considered.

MacNaughton is a renowned illustrator and contributed 150 images and infographics to the book.

SV • Location: Cubberley Theatre (near Montrose and Middlefield), 4000 Middlefield Rd., Palo Alto • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7:00 p.m. program, 8:00 p.m. book signing • Notes: This program is part of our Food Lit series, underwritten by the Bernard Osher Foundation; Nosrat photo by Grant Delin

SFDebate The SFDebate is an open forum for discussion on the events of our time. It is a place

where you will not only be exposed to opposing points of view, but a safe place where you will be encouraged to find and speak up for yours. SFDebate is also a meeting of minds, and we follow every meeting with continued debate and conversation at a nearby bar/ restaurant.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7–8:45 p.m. debate

TUESDAY, MAY 9 Fear of a Faith: Sharia, Surveillance, Terrorism and the Muslim Ban Panelists TBA

What’s real and what’s not? Join us for this special community forum to learn more about the policies, politics and current events that affect the United States and our overall understanding of Muslims and the Islam religion.

Co-presented by the office of Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian SV • Location: Rinconada Library, Embarcadero Room, 1213 Newell Road, Palo Alto • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7:00 p.m. program

Journalist Nick Bilton: Inside the Online Black Market

Nick Bilton, Special Correspondent, Vanity Fair; Author, American Kingpin: The Epic Hunt for the Criminal Mastermind Behind the Silk Road

Imagine a place where you can anonymously purchase drugs, hire hit men, and acquire forged passports counterfeit cash, guns, grenades and poisons. Journalist Nick Bilton has written about politics and power struggles behind the founding of Twitter. Now, he turns his investigative journalism to the story of Ross Ulbricht, the notorious and enigmatic founder of a drug empire and the Silk Road website. Bilton will divulge Ulbricht’s rise and APRIL/MAY 2017

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MAY 9–15

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Sustaining Capitalism with Joseph Minarik, Maggie Wilderotter and Steve Odland 4/19

fall and what Ulbricht’s story reveals about the clash of a libertarian-leaning web, where everything is decentralized, against the old world of government, law and order. He will also discuss what this could ultimately mean for all of us.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:00 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing • Notes: Photo by Justin Ouellette

WEDNESDAY. MAY 10 Alzheimer’s Disease—Eight Steps to Overcoming Refusal of Care

Jim Kimzey, Founder and CEO, Tender Rose Dementia Care Specialists

Eighty percent of people living with Alzheimer’s disease lack insight into their condition.

They do not realize that they need help, and they subsequently refuse care. In this presentation, learn about the growing prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease, the different stages of Alzheimer’s, why family members refuse care and why past attempts to get family members to accept care have failed. You will also learn a step-by-step approach to getting the people you love to accept the care they need.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 4:45 p.m. networking reception, 5:15 p.m. program • MLF: Grownups • Program organizer: John Milford

THURSDAY, MAY 11 The Importance of Diversity in the Environmental Movement for the 21st Century Adrianna Quintero, Natural Resources Defense Council Additional Panelists TBA

The importance of local, national and international people of diversity throughout the world and the environmental movement is

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critical to maintaining and building safe and healthy environments for our planet. How will the tone set by the current administration impact efforts to build greater involvement and representation of women, people of color and others? How can we build on and impact the diversity in our country to mobilize issues that affect us all? Highly distinguished Natural Resources Defense Council experts will discuss these critical issues and explore strategies to protect and improve health and well-being for people now and for generations to come.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program • MLF: Environment & Natural Resources • Program organizer: Ann Clark

Volunteer Orientation Learn how to become more involved with The Commonwealth Club as a volunteer! We will be hosting a brief tour of the Club’s temporary headquarters at 555 Post St. followed by an orientation about volunteering at The Commonwealth Club. Light appetizers will be served. Please sign up to reserve a spot at this orientation, as space is limited.

We look forward to seeing you there!

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6–6:45 p.m. program

FRIDAY, MAY 12 Sustaining Capitalism: Bipartisan Solutions to Restore Trust and Prosperity

Steve Odland, CEO, Committee for Economic Development; Former Chairman and CEO, Office Depot; Former Chairman and CEO, AutoZone Joseph Minarik, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Committee for Economic Development; Former Chief Economist, Office of Management and

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

Budget for the Clinton Administration Maggie Wilderotter, Chairman and CEO, Grand Reserve Inn; Former Chairman and CEO, Frontier Communications; Former Senior Vice President, Global Business Strategy for Microsoft—Moderator Lenny Mendonca, Director Emeritus, McKinsey and Company—Program Chair

The Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board (CED) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, business-led public policy organization that delivers analysis and solutions to our nation’s most critical issues.

In the 75 years since its inception in 1942, CED has addressed national priorities that promote sustained economic growth and development aimed at benefitting all Americans. These activities have encompassed the Marshall Plan in the late 1940s, education reform in the past three decades and campaign finance reform since 2000. CED’s research findings are coupled with multipronged outreach efforts throughout the country and abroad, achieving tangible impact at the local, state and national levels. With a new administration and Congress in office, and an ever-changing world anxious about its future, join a high-level conversation on how to ensure business and policy leaders can generate prosperity for all and make capitalism sustainable for generations to come.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11 a.m. check-in, noon program

MONDAY, MAY 15 Week to Week Politics Roundtable and Social Hour 5/15/17 Panelists TBA

It’s never a dull moment in politics these days. We’ll discuss the biggest, most controversial and surprising political issues with expert commentary by panelists who are smart, are civil, and have a good sense of humor.

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Dr. Tom O’Bryan 5/18

Join our panelists for informative and engaging commentary on political and other major news, audience discussion of the week’s events, and our live news quiz! Come early to meet other smart and engaged individuals and discuss the news over snacks and wine at our member social (open to all attendees).

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. wine-and-snacks social, 6:30 p.m. program

TUESDAY, MAY 16 Rugged Individualism

David Davenport, Hoover Institution Research Fellow, Former President, Pepperdine Univ.; Co-author, Rugged Individualism

In Rugged Individualism, Davenport and Lloyd analyze the history of American individualism, from its earliest roots in the Christianity of the colonial period to the present day. In spite of the closing of the western frontier; the shift from an agrarian to an industrial economy; the rise of Progressivism, the New Deal, the Great Society and the Reagan Revolution; federal education reform; and growing income inequality, rugged individualism has continued to survive as an American cultural icon. Davenport argues, though, that our ever more stifling federal government and overwhelming national debt may leave no room for rugged individualism to survive.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

WEDNESDAY, MAY 17 How to “Age in Place” Safely—Navigating the Confusing World of Home Care Catherine Reid, Licensed Clinical Social

commonwealthclub.org/events

MAY 15–18

North Beach Walking Tour 5/18

Worker (LCSW) Nancy Meyer, Realtor, Senior Real Estate Specialist Denise Michaud, Independent Insurance Agent

This multidisciplinary panel will cover how to “age in place” safely. First, they will describe the difference between a private and agency caregiver. They will then explain the role of a professional caregiver and the expected costs of private care. As decisions about remaining in the home, selling or downsizing are covered, audience members will learn how to answer the question: Should I stay or should I go?

The program is rounded out by a long-term care insurance expert who will help members create a strategy for paying for long-term care, learn how much long-term care insurance to buy and determine who will be their advocate.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 4:45 p.m. networking reception, 5:15 p.m. program • MLF: Grownups • Program organizer: John Milford

Humanities West Book Discussion: Antony and Cleopatra, by William Shakespeare Join us to discuss “Antony and Cleopatra,” the famous Elizabethan play by the legendary English playwright about the infamous Roman general who would be Caesar, and the even more famous, legendary and infamous last pharaoh of ancient Egypt—even if she was really Greek. Discussion led by Lynn Harris.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

THURSDAY, MAY 18 Autoimmune Fix

Dr. Tom O’Bryan, Author, The Autoimmune Fix; Faculty Member, Institute for

Functional Medicine

Autoimmune diseases are a primary cause of morbidity and mortality in the industrialized world. The number of people diagnosed with an autoimmune disease is increasing exponentially. Without recognizing and addressing the underlying mechanisms triggering the complaints, the practitioner may be proverbially “chasing the tail” of the pathology with temporary symptom relief. This presentation will outline the development of autoimmune disease and its musculoskeletal and neurological presentations, with a deep emphasis on testing and treatment protocols that have consistently demonstrated dramatic results.

O’Bryan is internationally recognized speaker and writer on chronic diseases and metabolic disorders. He is considered the world expert on the impact of wheat sensitivity on autoimmunity. In 2013, he organized “the gluten summit,” the first Internet gathering of more than 25 experts in a particular health field.

More information can be found at thedr.com.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program, 1 p.m. book signing • MLF: Health & Medicine • Program organizer: Susan Downs, Bill Grant

North Beach Walking Tour Explore vibrant North Beach with Rick Evans during a two-hour walk through this neighborhood with a colorful past—where food, culture, history and unexpected views all intersect in an Italian “urban village.” In addition to learning about Beat hangouts, you’ll discover authentic Italian cathedrals and coffee shops.

SF • Location: Meet at Victoria Pastry Cafe, 700 Filbert Street (at Columbus Ave., across from Washington Square Park), San Francisco • Time: 1:45 p.m. check-in, 2–4:30 p.m. walk • Notes: Tour operates rain or shine; limited to 20 participants; tickets must be purchased in advance and will not be sold at check-in APRIL/MAY 2017

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For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Willie Brown 5/23

Sleep Apnea: Creating Seamless Accountability for the Patient

Robert Koenigsberg, CEO, SleepQuest, Inc. William C. Dement, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific Advisor, SleepQuest, Inc.

We’ll examine how to diagnose and treat sleep apnea. SleepQuest founder and CEO Robert Koenigsberg and Dr. William Dement will give a number of tips on how to get a good night’s sleep and why this is important for overall health. Dement is one of the world’s leading authorities on sleep, sleep deprivation and the diagnosis and treatment of sleep disorders.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program • MLF: Health & Medicine • Program organizer: Bill Grant • Notes: In association with SleepQuest

FRIDAY, MAY 19 Resolving Afghanistan: Crafting a Sensible U.S. Approach

Anthony Alfidi, Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army Reserve; Financial Consultant

Intelligence officer Anthony Alfidi has performed military duty in South Korea, Kuwait, Germany, Iraq and Afghanistan. He will give his personal view of why U.S. policy has not achieved peace in Afghanistan and how the new administration should pursue reforms.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 11:30 a.m. networking reception, noon program • MLF: Middle East • Program organizer: Celia Menczel

MONDAY, MAY 22 Middle East Forum Discussion We are not a debate group. Each month we discuss timely, cultural subjects in a civil atmosphere with respect for others and their opinions.

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Plastic Waste 5/25 SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. program • MLF: Middle East • Program organizer: Celia Menczel

Women and Islam

Sumbul Ali-Karamali, Author, The Muslim Next Door Maha Elgenaidi, Executive Director, Islamic Network Group Joe Simitian, Supervisor, Santa Clara County—Moderator Additional Panelists TBA

What does it mean to be a Muslim woman? Join us for this special community forum to learn how Islam intersects with gender in today’s world. Co-presented by the office of Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian.

SV • Location: Rinconada Library, Embarcadero Room, 1213 Newell Road, Palo Alto • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7:00 p.m. program

SFDebate The SFDebate is an open forum for discussion on the events of our time. It is where you will not only be exposed to opposing points of view, but a safe place where you will be encouraged to find and speak up for yours. We follow every meeting with continued debate and conversation at a nearby bar/restaurant.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7–8:45 p.m. debate

TUESDAY, MAY 23 Willie Brown: Annual Commonwealth Club Lecture

Willie Brown, Former Mayor, San Francisco; Former Speaker, California State Assembly

Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown will give his annual lecture on national and regional political trends. A two-term mayor of San Francisco and legendary speaker of the California State Assembly, Brown is widely

SF: San Francisco

SV: Silicon Valley

regarded as one of the most influential African-American politicians of the late 20th century. He has been at the center of California politics, government and civic life for an astonishing four decades.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:45 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24 American Exceptionalism and the Rise of Trumpism

Mugambi Jouet, Thomas C. Grey Fellow and Lecturer in Law, Stanford Law School; Author, Exceptional America: What Divides Americans from the World and from Each Other

How did Donald Trump become president in an increasingly polarized America?

Mugambi Jouet traces these intriguing social changes to American exceptionalism—an idea widely misunderstood as American superiority. While exceptionalism was once a source of strength, it may now spell decline, as unique features of U.S. history, politics, law, culture, religion and race relations foster grave social conflicts.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond

THURSDAY, MAY 25 Plastic Waste: A Path from Garbage to Healthy Resources

Paul Yamamoto, Director of Technology, Engineering and Research, Recology Dr. Jesse Chu, Senior Plastic Engineer, Recology

Plastic is everywhere—in single and multiuse products and packaging. Almost all plastic ends its short, useable time in litter, waste, dumps, trash, rivers, oceans, soil or landfills. This ultimately leads to unhealthy

EB: East Bay

NB: North Bay

For current prices, call 415.597.6705 or go to commonwealthclub.org

Elisabeth Prueitt 5/25

plastic degradation and causes harm to environments throughout the world. Join us in this important discussion about Recology’s mission to achieve the best and highest use of environmentally safe and healthy resources.

Learn about Recology’s challenges, work and research to create a practical system worldwide to reclaim, convert and remanufacture plastic particles and products into reusable, safe resources for healthy environments, people and populations.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing • MLF: Environment & Natural Resources • Program organizer: Ann Clark

Tartine All Day Every Day

Elisabeth Prueitt, Co-founder, Tartine Bakery, Co-founder, Tartine Manufactory, Co-founder, Coffee Manufactory; James Beard Award Winner for Best Pastry Chef; Author, Tartine All Day

We all love food, but Elisabeth Prueitt loves food. From baking some of Bay Area’s favorite bread at Tartine to launching her new venture Tartine Manufactory, the James Beard Award-winning pastry chef always brings her best to the table.

Always an innovator, Prueitt has blazed a trail as a dynamic female chef in the often male-dominated world of food, setting an example for aspiring culinary leaders to follow. In a twist of fate, the expert pastry chef discovered along the way that she was gluten intolerant, which has led her to be even more creative in selecting her baking ingredients.

Her third cookbook, Tartine All Day, is full of recipes to inspire home cooks to try something new and delicious. Come and be inspired to cook more and eat better with Elisabeth Prueitt!

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program • Notes: This program is part of our Good Lit se-

commonwealthclub.org/events

Robert Pearl 5/30 ries, underwritten by the Bernard Osher Foundation;; photo by Paige Green

TUESDAY, MAY 30 Kaiser Permanente Medical Chief Dr. Robert Pearl: Getting the Mistakes out of Health Care Dr. Robert Pearl, Exec. Director and CEO, The Permanente Medical Group; Author, Mistreated: Why We Think We’re Getting Good Health Care–And Why We’re Usually Wrong

From his perspective as head of Permanente Medical Group, Robert Pearl is responsible for the health care that is delivered to more than 4 million Kaiser Permanente members in the states of California, Virginia, Maryland and in Washington, D.C. Pearl says he has definitely seen his share of medical errors.

He points out that American health care is in the bottom half of all industrialized countries, where every year hundreds of people die from medical errors and thousands die from diseases they did not have to get. Join us for a frank discussion on how to eliminate excessive costs, lack of convenience and poor quality health care and ultimately modernize and save the American health care industry.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 6:00 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing

WEDNESDAY, MAY 31 The Universal Stage: A Critique of Empathy

Eric Ting, Artistic Director, California Shakespeare Theater

In the theater, we concern ourselves with questions of authenticity and artifice in our search for human truth. They are questions that grow more pertinent as we consider classical theater’s place in our contemporary world: whose stories

MAY 25–31

Eric Ting 5/31

are represented, whose stories are appropriated, how do we see ourselves in these stories and can we ever truly understand another person? Go in depth with Eric Ting, the artistic director of CalShakes—a San Francisco cultural treasure.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program • MLF: Humanities • Program organizer: George Hammond • Notes: An Only in San Francisco summer series event

Trump’s First 100 Days: Part Four

Panelists TBA Mina Kim, Anchor & Host, KQED—Moderator

How will President Trump’s 100-day action plan impact our domestic and foreign affairs, health care, education, environment, immigration, economic and trade policies? Who are the new people leading the country and how will they impact public policy? What role will all forms of media play as they cover the new administration? Join the Club and KQED for the final program of our four-part series that address the first 100 days of the Trump administration and how this period will shape America over the next four years and beyond.

SF • Location: 555 Post St., San Francisco • Time: 5:45 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program • Notes: In partnership with KQED; image by Mark Fiore

LATE-BREAKING EVENTS 4/12 Amory Lovins: Peak Car Ownership 4/15 Ben Franklin Circle 4/17 Socrates Cafe 4/24 Ben Shapiro: Rules for Debating the Left 4/20 Ian Mitroff: Dangers of a Digitized World 5/3 Ben Franklin Circle 5/15 Socrates Cafe See commonwealthclub.org for details & tickets APRIL/MAY 2017

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Janet Yellen

On the eve of the inauguration of a new president, Fed Chair Janet Yellen defends the Fed’s role. January 18, 2017 program.

JANET YELLEN

Ph.D., Chair, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System; Professor Emeritus, University of California, Berkeley In conversation with

EDWARD WASSERMAN

Ph.D., Dean, Graduate School of Journalism, University of California, Berkeley; Former Executive Business Editor, Miami Herald—Moderator

G

ood afternoon. It is a pleasure to join all of you at The Commonwealth Club today, not the least because the Club and the Federal Reserve have a few things in common. Both organizations, as it happens, have a board of governors and a chair. And both the Club’s and the Fed’s histories extend back more than a century. The Club, as many here know, was founded in 1903, and the Federal Reserve a decade later. Perhaps because of our shared

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origins in the Progressive Era, a period of reform in American life, we hold certain values in common. According to your website, the Club is nonpartisan and dedicated to the impartial discussion of issues important to your community and the nation. At the Fed, we too are nonpartisan and focused squarely on the public interest. We strive to conduct our deliberations impartially and base our decisions on factual evidence and objective analysis. This afternoon I will discuss some challenges we’ve faced in our recent deliberations and may face in the next few years.

Perhaps, though, it is best to start by stepping back and asking, what is—and, importantly, what isn’t—our job as the nation’s central bank? And how do we go about trying to accomplish it? The Federal Reserve has an array of responsibilities. I’ll mention our principal duties and then focus on one—monetary policy, the responsibility that gets the most public attention.

In addition to monetary policy, we—in collaboration with other regulatory agencies at both the federal and state levels—oversee banks and some other financial institutions to ensure they operate safely and soundly and treat their customers fairly. We monitor the financial system as a whole and promote its stability to help avoid financial crises that could choke off credit to consumers and businesses. We also reliably and safely process trillions of dollars of payments for the nation’s banks and the federal government and ensure that banks have an ample supply

Photo by Ed Ritger

of currency and coin to meet the demands of their depositors. And we work with communities, nonprofit organizations, lenders, educators, and others to encourage financial and economic literacy, promote equal access to credit, and advance economic and community development.

But, as I noted, monetary policy draws the most headlines. What is monetary policy, exactly? Simply put, it consists of central bank actions aimed at influencing interest rates and financial conditions more generally. Its purpose is to help foster a healthy economy.

But monetary policy cannot, by itself, create a healthy economy. It cannot, for instance, educate young people, generate technological breakthroughs, make workers and businesses more productive, or address the root causes of inequality. Fundamentally, the energy, ingenuity and know-how of American workers and entrepreneurs, along with our natural resources, create prosperity. Regulatory policy and fiscal policy—the decisions by the administration and the Congress about how much and how the government spends, taxes, and borrows—can influence these more fundamental economic pillars.

I’ve said what monetary policy cannot do. But what can it do? It can lean against damaging fluctuations in the economy.

Nearly 40 years ago, the Congress set two main guideposts for that task—maximum employment and price stability. We refer to these assigned goals as our dual mandate.

When the economy is weak and unemploy-

ment is on the rise, we encourage spending and investing by pushing short-term interest rates lower. As you may know, the interest rate that we target is the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. Lowering short-term rates in turn puts downward pressure on longer term interest rates, making credit more affordable—for families, for instance, to buy a house or for businesses to expand. Similarly, when the economy is threatening to push inflation too high down the road, we increase interest rates to keep the economy on a sustainable path and lean against its tendency to boom and then bust.

But what exactly do the terms maximum employment and price stability mean? Does maximum employment mean that every single person who wants a job has a job? No. There are always a certain number of people who are temporarily between jobs after having recently lost a job or having left one voluntarily to pursue better opportunities.

Others may have just graduated and have started looking for a job or have decided to return to working—for instance, when their child starts school. This so-called frictional unemployment is evident even in the healthiest of economies.

Then there is structural unemployment—a difficult problem both for the people affected and for policymakers trying to address it.

Sometimes people are ready and willing to work, but their skills, perhaps because of technological advances, are not a good fit for the jobs that are available. Or suitable jobs may be available but are not close to where they and their families live. These are factors over which monetary policy has little influence. Other measures—such as job training and other workforce development programs—are better suited to address structural unemployment.

After taking account of both frictional and structural unemployment, what unemployment rate is roughly equivalent to the maximum level of employment that can be sustained in the longer run? The rate can change over time as the economy evolves, but, for now, many economists, including my colleagues at the Fed and me, judge that it is around 4.75 percent. It’s important to try to estimate the unemployment rate that is equivalent to maximum employment because persistently operating below it pushes inflation higher, which brings me to our price

stability mandate.

Does price stability mean having no inflation whatsoever? Again, the answer is no.

By price stability, we mean a level of inflation that is low and stable enough that it doesn’t need to figure prominently into people’s and businesses’ economic decisions. Based on research and decades of experience, we define that level as 2 percent a year—an inflation objective similar to that adopted by most other major central banks. Individual prices, of course, move up and down by more than 2 percent all the time. Such movements are essential to a well-functioning economy.

They allow supply and demand to adjust for various goods and services. By “inflation,” we mean price changes as a whole for all of the various goods and services that households consume.

No one likes high inflation, and it is easy to understand why. Although wages and prices tend to move in tandem over long periods, inflation erodes household purchasing power if it is not matched with similar increases in wages, and it eats away the value of households’ savings. So, then, why don’t we and other central banks aim for zero inflation? There are several technical reasons, but a more fundamental reason is to create a buffer against the opposite of inflation—that is, deflation. Deflation is a general and persistent decline in the level of prices, a phenomenon Americans last experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s and one that Japan has confronted for most of the past two decades. Deflation can feed on itself, leading to economic stagnation or worse. It puts pressure on employers to either cut wages or cut jobs. And it can be very hard

on borrowers, who find themselves repaying their loans with dollars that are worth more than the dollars they originally borrowed. I am sure we all remember learning in school about farm families in the Great Depression who couldn’t pay their mortgages and lost their homes and their livelihoods when crop prices fell persistently.

Another important reason to maintain a modest inflation buffer is that too low inflation impairs the ability of monetary policy to counter economic downturns. When inflation is very low, interest rates tend to be very low also, even in good times. And when interest rates are generally very low, the Fed has only limited room to cut them to help the economy in bad times.

In a nutshell, the Fed’s goal is to promote financial conditions conducive to maximum employment and price stability. And I have offered broad-brush definitions of each of those objectives. So where is the economy now, in relationship to them? The short answer is, we think it’s close. The economy has come a long way since the financial crisis. As you know, the crisis marked the start of a very deep recession. It destroyed nearly 9 million jobs, and it’s been a long, slow slog to recover from it. Unemployment peaked at 10 percent late in 2009, a level unseen for more than 25 years, and didn’t move below 8 percent for nearly three years. Falling home prices put millions of homeowners underwater, meaning they owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. And the stock market plunged, slashing the value of 401(k) retirement nest eggs.

The extraordinarily severe recession required an extraordinary response from Photo by Ed Ritger

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Photo by Ed Ritger

monetary policy, both to support the job market and prevent deflation. We cut our short-term interest rate target to near zero at the end of 2008 and kept it there for seven years. To provide further support to American households and businesses, we pressed down on longer term interest rates by purchasing large amounts of longer term Treasury securities and government-guaranteed mortgage securities. And we communicated our intent to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time, thus increasing the downward pressure on longer term interest rates, which are influenced by expectations about short-term rates.

Now, it’s fair to say, the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal. The unemployment rate is less than 5 percent, roughly back to where it was before the recession. And, over the past seven years, the economy has added about 15.5 million net new jobs. Although inflation has been running below our 2 percent objective for quite some time, we have seen it start inching back toward 2 percent last year as the job market continued to improve and as the effects of a big drop in oil prices faded. Last month, at our most recent meeting, we took account of the considerable progress the economy has made by modestly increasing our short-term interest rate target by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 0.5 to 0.75 percent. It was the second such step-the first came a year earlier—and reflects our confidence the economy will continue to improve.

Now, many of you would love to know exactly when the next rate increase is coming and how high rates will rise. The simple truth is, I can’t tell you because it will depend on how the economy actually evolves over coming months. The economy is vast and vastly complex, and its path can take surprising twists and turns. What I can tell you is what we expect—along with a very large caveat that our interest rate expectations will change as our outlook for the economy changes.

That said, as of last month, I and most of my colleagues—the other members of the Fed Board in Washington and the presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks--were expecting to increase our federal funds rate target a few times a year until, by the end of 2019; it is close to our estimate of its longer run neutral rate of 3 percent.

The term “neutral rate” requires some

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explaining. It is the rate that, once the economy has reached our objectives, will keep the economy on an even keel. It is neither pressing on the gas pedal to make the car go faster nor easing off so much that the car slows down. Right now our foot is still pressing on the gas pedal, though, as I noted, we have eased back a bit. Our foot remains on the pedal in part because we want to make sure the economic expansion remains strong enough to withstand an unexpected shock, given that we don’t have much room to cut interest rates. In addition, inflation is still running below our 2 percent objective, and, by some measures, there may still be some room for progress in the job market.

For instance, wage growth has only recently begun to pick up and remains fairly low.

A broader measure of unemployment isn’t quite back to its prerecession level. It includes people who would like a job but have been too discouraged to look for one and people who are working part time but would rather work full time.

Nevertheless, as the economy approaches our objectives, it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support.

Changes in monetary policy take time to work their way into the economy. Waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road—either too much inflation, financial instability, or both. In that scenario, we could be forced to raise interest rates rapidly, which in turn could push the economy into a new recession.

The factors I have just discussed are the usual sort that central bankers consider as economies move through a recovery. But a longer term trend—slow productivity growth—helps explain why we don’t think dramatic interest rate increases are required to move our federal funds rate target back to neutral. Labor productivity—that is, the output of goods and services per hour of work— has increased by only about 0.5 percent a year, on average, over the past six years or so and only 1.25 percent a year over the past decade. That contrasts with the previous 30 years when productivity grew a bit more than 2 percent a year. This productivity slowdown matters enormously because Americans’ standard of living depends on productivity growth. With productivity growth of 2 percent a year, the average standard of living will double roughly every 35 years. That

means our children can reasonably hope to be better off economically than we are now.

But productivity growth of 1 percent a year means the average standard of living will double only every 70 years.

Economists do not fully understand the causes of the productivity slowdown. Some emphasize that technological progress, and its diffusion throughout the economy seem to be slower over the past decade or so. Others look at college graduation rates, which have flattened out after rising rapidly in previous generations. And still others focus on a dramatic slowing in the creation of new businesses, which are often more innovative than established firms. While each of these factors has likely played a role in slowing productivity growth, the extent to which they will continue to do so is an open question.

Why does slow productivity growth, if it persists, imply a lower neutral interest rate?

First, it implies that the economy’s usual rate of output growth, when employment is at its maximum and prices are stable, will be significantly slower than the post-World War II average. Slower economic growth, in turn, implies businesses will see less need to invest in expansion. And it implies families and individuals will feel the need to save more and spend less. Because interest rates are the mechanism that brings the supply of savings and the demand for investment funds into balance, more saving and less investment imply a lower neutral interest rate. Although we can’t directly measure the neutral interest rate, it is something that can be estimated in retrospect. And, as we have increasingly realized, it has probably been trending down for a while now. Our current 3 percent estimate of the longer run neutral rate, for instance, is a full percentage point lower than our estimate just three years ago.

You might be thinking, what does this discussion of rather esoteric concepts such as the neutral rate mean to me? If you are a borrower, it means that, although the interest rates you pay on, say, your auto loan or mortgage or credit card likely will creep higher, they probably will not increase dramatically.

Likewise, if you are a saver, the rates you earn could inch higher after a while, but probably not by a lot. For some years, I’ve heard from savers who want higher rates, and now I’m beginning to hear from borrowers who want lower rates. I can’t emphasize strongly enough, though, that we are not trying to

help one of those groups at the expense of the other. We’re focused very much on that dual mandate I keep mentioning. At the end of the day, we all benefit from plentiful jobs and stable prices, whether we are savers or borrowers—and many of us, of course, are both.

Economics and monetary policy are, at best, inexact sciences. Figuring out what the neutral interest rate is and setting the right path toward it is not like setting the thermostat in a house: You can’t just set the temperature at 68 degrees and walk away.

And, because changes in monetary policy affect the economy with long lags sometimes, we must base our decisions on our best forecasts of an uncertain future. Thus, we must continually reassess and adjust our policies based on what we learn.

That point leads me to repeat what I said when I began: Like The Commonwealth Club, the Federal Reserve was created more than a century ago during an era of government reform to serve the public interest.

The structure established for the Federal Reserve back then intentionally insulates us from short-term political pressures so we can focus on what’s best for the American economy in the longer run. I promise you, with the sometimes imperfect information and evidence we have available, we will do just that by making the best decisions we can, as objectively as we can.

Question and answer session with Dr. Edward Wasserman, dean of the Graduate School of Journalism, University of California, Berkeley

EDWARD WASSERMAN:

In some of your earlier talks over the past year, you identified not just productivity but inequality as among your major concerns in guiding the Fed. I’m wondering what might we look for as interested and somewhat knowledgeable outsiders in Fed actions that would reflect this concern for inequality.

JANET YELLEN: Well, the tools that the Federal Reserve has to address very disturbing trends pertaining to inequality are limited. Some important causes—at least in my view, and [in the views of ] I think many economists—factors that have given rise to inequality, we see a growing differential in the wages earned by those who were more skilled, with more education, and the in-

comes of those with less education and on.

When we ask what forces are responsible for that technological change that has increased the demand for skill and advantaged those who have the ability to work with technology and globalization—those are certainly two important factors.

These are trends that we can’t directly affect. But by attaining maximum employment, which is the goal assigned to us by Congress, we make sure that there are abundant job opportunities. I think it’s evident that when there’s a great deal of slack in the labor market as there was after the financial crisis for many years, well, that’s something that harms everyone—minority groups and those with less skill tend to experience the most dramatic declines in income and increases in their unemployment rates. And when the economy generally recovers and unemployment comes down, those groups that normally have higher unemployment rates actually see the biggest declines in their unemployment rates and gains in their income.

So maintaining a healthy economy with low unemployment is something that, relative to slack labor market conditions, is something that greatly benefits minority groups and others who are less advantaged in the labor market. So that is one important way in which we can help.

WASSERMAN: There’s a concern— perhaps reflecting the demographics of this group today—about the Baby Boom generation reaching retirement with a gross deficiency of assets. It’s obviously going to have some impact on future consumer spending levels; it’s going to have disruptive impacts that will ripple through society. I’m wondering, how does that concern enter into the kind of decisions that you and your colleagues have to make?

YELLEN: So I think the aging of the American population, the retirement of the Baby Boomers, is one of the most important trends that is going to be affecting and already is affecting our economy. One way in which we’re already seeing the impact is that the rate of labor force participation—the fraction of the population participating in the labor market—has fallen substantially, and is expected because of demographics to continue declining. We’re also seeing slow growth in the labor force, which is pushing down estimates of the rate at which the economy is capable of AP R I L /MAY 2017

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Photo by Ed Ritger

growing over the medium and longer term.

My colleagues, for example, now estimate that the longer run normal real growth rate of the economy is probably going to decline to slightly under 2 percent, which is low by historical standards.

Of course, the aging of the population makes a great deal [of] patterns of spending and is an important reason why we should expect the health care sector to be expanding as retirees obviously consume substantially more health care than other elements in the population. And as you mentioned, retirement savings is an important issue, and regrettably, I think research shows that many American families are not well prepared for retirement and will continue to be a disproportionate share of families heavily reliant on Social Security as their primary source of income.

WASSERMAN: I’m being overwhelmed here with learned questions that rest on facts not in evidence. [Laughter.] I would like to draw you out a little bit on an area of policy that is not in the Fed’s bailiwick, but may impact the world you have to deal with, and this has to do with trade. Particularly, in a way that’s probably not been seen in recent elections, certainly in my lifetime, trade was a major campaign issue, or at least a campaign slogan or set of slogans. I’m wondering how, even though you don’t handle trade, you handle the dollar, and exchange rates impact your world a lot. And the dollar is very strong right now. I think the pound was a $1.24 yesterday, which is very unprecedented. I’m wondering if the continuance of polices that have the effect of forcing the dollar upward further—how does that begin to ripple through into your world, and what should

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we be looking for?

YELLEN: The value of the dollar is an important influence on the economy, and it’s one of the factors that determines the magnitude of a country’s trade deficit. So the Fed does pay attention to the value of the dollar when we try to forecast the economy, though we don’t target the economy. Our objective is, as I emphasized in my remarks, to try to achieve maximum employment and price stability. But we take it into account.

Now one of the factors that influences the value of the dollar is divergences in interest rates across countries, which in turn partly reflect different paths for monetary policy and the underlying strength of one economy versus another. So, you referred to the substantial run-up we’ve seen with the dollar over the past couple years. The U.S. economy has enjoyed a stronger and faster recovery than many of our trading partners, advanced nations; and a consequence of that is that U.S. monetary policy has begun to tighten slightly, and it is expected, as I mentioned, that it will stay on a gradual path of rate increases. That expectation in the market of growing divergences between U.S. and foreign interest rates is, plus the underlying strength of the economy, something that has put upward pressure on the dollar. And when the dollar strengthens, that tends to make U.S. goods less competitive in global markets, to diminish exports, and to make imports cheaper, raising imports; so imports and exports have been a drag for a couple of years now on the U.S. economy, and expect that drag to continue.

In recent months, we’ve seen some further appreciation of the dollar. In part, that likely

reflects market expectations that growth will strengthen, perhaps due to expansionary fiscal policies, and that has been reflected in the dollar. So trade policies can directly impact a country’s trade deficit and trade position, but there are other factors also that need to be taken into account when one contemplates evolution of a country’s trade deficit, and the dollar is an important factor in economic growth here and abroad.

WASSERMAN: Let me ask you about another area of impact of rising rates, and that would have to do with equity valuations.

You have made some statements in the last year expressing some—I don’t think you use the B-word; I don’t think you are suggesting that the equities are a bubble. We’re very sensitive that here in the Bay Area, as you know, because we’re very fond of our bubbles and we love our tech sector. [Laughter.] So I am wondering whether the rising rates is pushing people out of bonds into equities.

Do you have any concern? What would you be looking for in terms of equity multiples or valuations that you would begin to actually get worried enough about to have an influence in policy?

YELLEN: I try not to give investment advice or to comment on— WASSERMAN: That’s a pity.

[Laughter.]

YELLEN: —what the right values of asset prices are unless I am very concerned about a real risk to financial stability that asset prices might entail. At the moment, I would regard risk to financial stability—they’re always present to some extent—but I would regard them as moderate. One indication of financial stability risks would be growing

leverage; leverage is not at excessive levels. Or very rapid credit growth; we’re seeing credit growth, but not at a pace that would give me great concern about financial stability. Banks are strong; they have a great deal more capital and liquidity than prior to the crisis, and the Federal Reserve engages in regular stress testing of the portfolios of major financial institutions to make sure that they could suffer a very serious adverse shock and go on meeting the credit needs of our economy.

So I really would characterize financial risks as moderate.

But coming back to the stock market, the level of interest rates is one of the influences on asset valuations generally, including equity prices, and we have had, as I mentioned, generally low interest rates. Markets are expecting, anticipating—we’ve indicated our expectation is for gradual increases in interest rates over the next several years. In short rates, that type of expectation is embodied in longer term interest rates in the market. That level and set of expectations in interest rates is an influence and partly explains why price-equity ratios are as high as they are, namely rates of return on stock are determined by market participants partly relative to what they can earn on bonds. That differential is normal in an historical sense, but interest rates do matter. I do think it’s important that investors take into account, [as] I mentioned, uncertainty. Life can often take—the economy can take twists and turns that are unexpected, and movements in interest rates up and down that are large and not anticipated by the markets could affect those valuations.

WASSERMAN: I have several inter-

esting questions here about technology. Let me put them before you and pick the ones you like. There’s a question here about in the light of experience with hacking, how zealously the Fed guards its own data from outside manipulation, and how real is the risk of manipulation of the data. There is a question here also about decreased demand for paper money, the economic consequences of a cashless economy, how it might affect the Fed; and also will the government start a blockchain currency system like Fedcoin, and this person says you’re quoted as saying “We’ll look into it.” Is that a correct quote?

YELLEN: I’m not positive if I’ve said that or not. But blockchain is an important technology— WASSERMAN: Does everybody know what blockchain is?

YELLEN: It’s a technology that’s a core technology that’s incorporated in Bitcoin.

And while I do not regard myself as expert on this, my understanding is this is a technology that enables transactions in ownership of things to be taken care of automatically without a need, for example, for a trusted central party to record transactions. So it is a very important new technology that could have implications for the way in which transactions are handled throughout the financial system. We’re looking at it in terms of its promise in some of the technologies that we use ourselves, and many financial institutions are looking at it. It could make a big difference to the way in which transactions are cleared and settled in the global economy.

You asked about cyber security and the security of our own systems. And of course cyber security is a very prominent threat. We

recognize that and we are working very hard to protect our core systems. For example, Fedwire and other core systems that we have that process trillions of dollars of transactions, we apply the highest security standards and fight to stay ahead of the curve to the maximum extent possible.

WASSERMAN: Have you had instances that have given you pause?

YELLEN: We have never suffered a major breach. Our public-facing websites have had some incidents, but we’ve never experienced anything that has affected a core Federal Reserve system. And we do what we can to make sure that it stays that way.

We’re also working closely with financial institutions and key utilities that operate in the payment system, to try to make sure that our financial system as a whole is secure and we can address cyber security threats that could filter through the system. This is a very high priority for us.

WASSERMAN: [What about a] cashless economy?

YELLEN: Cashless economy—we are not there yet. I believe that the demand and use of cash continues to increase, but there are many important innovations taking place in the payment space, FinTech innovations that I think are very exciting in terms of resulting in faster, safer payments, not only at the wholesale but also at the retail level, that could change the use of cash over time.

We’re monitoring those developments very carefully; we want to make sure that useful and welfare-enhancing innovations can take place and that we don’t stifle them, yet we also want to make sure that consumers are well-protected.

Photo by Ed Ritger

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Photo by Elese Moran

George Shultz The statesman explains the lessons of a life at the center of American and world history.

February 21, 2017, program in San Francisco.

GEORGE SHULTZ

Ph.D., Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution; Former U.S. Secretary of State, Labor, and Treasury; Author, Learning from Experience In conversation with

GLORIA DUFFY

Ph.D., President and CEO, The Commonwealth Club

GLORIA DUFFY: Would you

start by telling us which experiences were most formative for you?

SHULTZ: Since we are in the Marines Memorial [Theatre], why don’t I tell you some things I learned as a Marine?

First of all, I’m in Marine Corps boot camp at the start of World War II. The sergeant hands me my rifle. He says, “Take good care of this rifle; this is your best friend. And remember one thing: Never point this rifle at anybody unless you’re willing to pull the trigger. No empty threats.” I told that story

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to President Reagan once, and he followed up on it. We’d be in the Situation Room, and somebody would say, “That’s unacceptable,” and he would say, “What are you going to do if it happens?” [If ] the answer is nothing, he says, “It’s not acceptable and you accepted it.” So mean what you say. And, when you say you’re gonna do something, do it. If you’re applying that more broadly, you can say if you’re dealing with somebody and they always do what they say they’re gonna do, then you trust them.

I think in many dealings—and if you look around, it’s so important—trust is the coin of the realm. If there’s somebody you’re working with and you trust them, it makes all the difference. So that Marine Corps sergeant taught me a lot.

Then, I had another experience. I was overseas. We had a little combat. I was fresh to it. I had a wonderful sergeant named Peyton. You know, you get close to people in these situations. He was an extraordinary guy—smart, able; he could do anything. He and I were great friends.

So we had this action going on and I’m looking around for him and I don’t know where he is. I ran over to where I thought he might be. I said, “Where the hell is Peyton?”

“Peyton’s dead, sir.” I’ll never forget it. The reality of war sinks in. Wonderful people get killed, injured, sometimes badly. So if you’re in a position to have an impact on whether or not we should use force, remember Peyton; think carefully, be sure the mission is a good

mission. Be sure you equip people to accomplish what it is they set out to accomplish.

DUFFY: I learned a lot from your book about your early life and your early experiences. I didn’t know you’d been involved in desegregation efforts. Could you tell us a little bit about that?

SHULTZ: Well, I of course knew that there was discrimination. But I was co-chairman with something called the Armour Automation Fund. The meat packing industry was going through a change. They had always in the past driven animals to Chicago, Fort Worth, Kansas City—thiese big packing plants. And it suddenly dawned on them that in that long trip, the animals lost a lot of weight, which is what they’re selling.

So, they started to have smaller plants out where the animals were. And that was a big rearrangement. So they set up the Armour Automation Fund [to help] think it through, and also deal with the challenges that took place. So they close the plant in Fort Worth, Texas, and I go down with the team—the management guy, the union guy, me and Arnie Weber was working with me—and we decided to go to the hotel before we went to the plant. So I go up to the clerk and I ask for a room and he gives me a nice suite.

Arnie got something, management guy gets a room, no problem. Union guy comes, he’s black, and the clerk looks at him. He says, “We don’t have any rooms.”

[The union man] pulls out a confirmation slip and hands it to him. So he goes into a

back room and comes out and says, “We don’t have any rooms.” By this time my blood is boiling. And I said, “You do have a room, you gave me a suite; put a cot in the extra room and register him.” And he did it. It turned out that was the first time a black person was registered in that hotel. So I realized that when you’re on the moral high ground, stay there and insist. Don’t mince words. And sometimes people will do something even if they don’t have authority to do it.

But then we had an occasion when Armour opened a new plant in a little town called Worthington, Minnesota. They were building the plant, and the little community was very pleased to have the meatpacking jobs; they were good jobs. All of a sudden, Armour closes its big plant in Kansas City that had been there for a long time. Most of the workers in it were black. In their contract, there was a provision that you could bump into another plant if you had enough seniority. So I go to Worthington and I find it’s an all-white community. This was in the mid-60s, when we were having riots in our cities. There are no blacks there. So their governor’s human rights person comes down and he tells me, “Please stop this or it’s going to be mayhem.” But Clark and I talked it over; he said, “Well, these guys have contractual rights; it’s up to us to do what we can to be able to realize them.”

So I started talking to the town fathers.

They are in the small town, and they start saying, “Big cities—they don’t know anything about people. They’re not real people.

They’re just big numbers. We’re a little town.

Everybody knows each other in this town.

We can get along.”

Then somebody said, “We’re building a new housing place with this new plant, they can all live there.” Town father says, “No way.

That just creates a black ghetto; [they should] live out among us.” Then the black [workers] started sending out little scouting parties, so we helped them get around and meet people.

All of the sudden the churches realize a lot of these people are tithers. [Laughter.] Then the churches start to compete for them. I said to Clark, “We just turned a corner.” About 200 came up to the plant and it worked, no problem. It taught me that if you work it out, and you talk to people and let people work together a little bit, it helps.

So then, I’m secretary of labor. And President Nixon decides that it’s time to de-

segregate the schools in the South. In seven southern states, the schools were segregated by law. This is, what, 60 years after the Brown decision. They’re still segregated. So he says it’s right constitutionally, it’s right morally to desegregate the schools. That just doesn’t happen you’ve got to manage it. So he appoints a committee to manage it. Vice President Agnew is made the chairman and I’m the vice chairman; Pat Moynahan was working in the White House then; he was on it, [as was] a man named Len Garment. Agnew would have nothing to do with it. He said, “I don’t want to be associated with this.” So I became the chairman. So we talked about it, and we decided to form biracial committees, same number of blacks as whites, in each state.

We checked it out with the president.

“Mr. President, we’re not going to pay any attention to the politics of these people.

We are only interested in getting strong, respected people, that’s all.” He went along with that. So we got them appointed, and we brought the first [group] up. But Mississippi, everybody said that’d be the toughest state.

We brought them up to the White House, took them into the Roosevelt Room. I have learned from my labor experience that you’ve gotta let people blow off steam; and if you’re arguing about principle, you’re never gonna get anywhere. So I let them blow off steam, and the blacks thought this was a great idea and the whites didn’t like it.

After enough of that I had the attorney general standing by, a very gruff guy named John Mitchell. [Laughter.] The whites thought he was their guy. I said, “What are you going to do when the school’s open, John?” He said, “I’m the attorney general,

I’m gonna enforce the law.” Okay, [Mitchell leaves]. [Laughter.] So I said, “This had been an interesting discussion this morning, but it’s not relevant. The schools are going to be desegregated. The only question is, how’s that going to work? Is there going to be violence?

What’s going to happen to their quality of education and so on? These are problems.

And these are your communities, these are your children. So, let’s talk about it.” When you give people problems, they can dig in, they can grapple with a problem. So pretty soon they started doing that more and more.

I took them over to the diplomatic reception rooms for lunch, and there is the Thomas Jefferson desk that he constructed himself and on which he wrote the Declaration of Independence—[which] says all men are created equal. I pointed out that phrase. I got two guys lined up, I thought they would be good co-chairmen. As they were really getting going, I could see they were going to get somewhere, I left them. There was a young lawyer from the Justice Department, he was very upset: “Why’d you leave them?” I said, “You don’t get it; if I’m there and they come to an agreement, it’s my agreement. If I’m not there and they come to an agreement, it’s their agreement. And it’s very important that it’s their agreement; they will work harder to make it go.”

Again, they got together and they agreed to be the co-chairmen. We go back to the White House, and by the time the mid-afternoon comes they’re doing well, and I give a signal.

We go across the hall into the Oval Office, and the president greets them all, sits them down, and he said, “Here we are in the Oval Office. Think of the things that have been Photo by Elese Moran

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decided here, that affect the security and welfare of our country. Well, here we are with this major issue and this major development that’s gonna take place in our country. I’ve made my decision, but that’s not enough in a democracy like ours. You have to make your decisions and carry them out, and we’re here ready to work with you and try to make this work.” And there was back and forth. By the time they left the Oval Office, they were on cloud nine and ready to go to work. And it worked state after state.

So Pat and I decided [to hold] the last meeting in Louisiana. We said let’s have a meeting down there; and then, we’ll have it followed by a meeting with all our co-chairmen from the different states; it was getting close to school openings, and it’ll be a good event. So, we go into the Oval Office and I make my pitch. And the president looks at Agnew. Agnew says, “Mr. President, don’t go.

You’ll be in a room, and half the people will be white, and half the people will be black.

There’s going to be blood running down the streets of the South. You don’t want that blood on your hands.”

The president looks at me and I say, “Mr.

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President, whatever happens it’s on your watch. You’ve met these people; they’re good people. You’ve made a good impression on them. They haven’t been idle; they’ve been working, and we’ve been working with them.

I think you ought to go.” So he goes. So, Pat and I go down, and it’s harder. And all of a sudden, it’s dawning on me. It’s one thing to bring people to the White House; it’s another thing to have them be in a hotel room in their hometown. It’s not the same. But we’d made a lot of progress. By the time the president comes, they’re almost there, but not quite.

And he finishes the job. Then we have the meeting of the co-chairmen, and it was like a revival meeting. People exchanging ideas.

“Have you thought about this problem?”

“Have you thought about that problem?

Here’s what we’re gonna do,” and so on.

Exchanging ideas. It was fairly sensational.

So we’re riding back to Washington on Air Force One and we’re sitting around talking.

Bryce Harlow was really the only guy with Southern background in our group. The president comes back, and he listens for a while and then he goes, “Bryce how do you think it’s going to go?”

Bryce says, “Well, Mr. President, I think it’s going to go pretty well in the South. The problem is going to be when it comes north; that’s where the problem is.”

“Why is that, Bryce?”

“Well, in the South, we live together. If they get sick, we take care of them. If we get sick, they take care of us. They do the cooking, they do the laundry, they look after our children. As human beings we’re closer together, so it’s not going to be a strange thing. In the north, it’s just the opposite. They don’t live together.” It turned out to be a very prophetic remark because it did go really well; there was no violence, and it went off well.

From these experiences, one of the things I’ve learned is that if there’s a big problem, talk to people, get people together. Try to define it as a problem. Get them to start talking about how you’ll solve the problem.

And then, pretty much you can solve it.

DUFFY: Of the many problems that you’ve been involved in solving, from segregation to ending the Cold War, what are you most proud to have solved?

SHULTZ: The most thrilling day for me, when I was secretary of state, I worked

hard on the issues of Soviet Jewry. I always met with dissidents when I went to Moscow.

President Reagan was very strong on that. I met with a woman named Ida Nudel. She had a sister who was out and I met with her, too. I put her on a list I gave to [Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard] Shevardnadze, and he promised to work on it. I come back to my office one afternoon, and a phone call comes through. I pick up the phone. “This is Ida Nudel. I’m in Jerusalem; I’m home.” It’s a thrill to this day. If you say what really makes you feel it was all worthwhile? It’s something human, that some human being is better off because of something that you had a hand in. That’s what gets you.

DUFFY: In all of those various roles, what was the most trying moment, the most difficult moment and [the most] challenging?

SHULTZ: I think the process we went through that created the event that I think was a turning point in the Cold War. The Soviets had deployed intermediate-range nuclear weapons. These weapons were designed to hit Europe, Japan and China, but not us.

And the diplomatic ploy was to say: Would we risk retaliation with their intercontinental

missiles by using our intercontinental missiles to deter use of their intermediate range weapons. That was the diplomatic ploy. So we worked an agreement with NATO, that we would try to negotiate a satisfactory outcome with them. And if we couldn’t get it, we’d deploy our own intermediate range of missiles. And we worked hard at that and did all kinds of things to convince [them].

When you’re bargaining, you’re not just bargaining with the Soviets. You’re bargaining with the European public to convince them that you’re doing something that is in their interests and they can trust you. It wasn’t possible to reach an agreement. So we deployed cruise missiles in Britain, Margaret Thatcher helped us there. We deployed cruise missiles in Italy and [Italian Prime Minister Giulio] Andreotti helped us there. And then, the big deal was ballistic missiles—the nuclear armed ballistic missiles in Germany. And it was a huge undertaking. The Soviets threatened war. They walked out of the negotiations.

Put a tremendous amount of heat on. But the alliance basically held firm. It was Helmut Kohl’s finest hour, and we got the missiles deployed. So there was this huge thing and

we stood up to it. As time went on during the year 1984, gradually they subsided. And in August of that year I was able to go to President Reagan and said, “Mr. President, in four different European capitals, a Soviet diplomat has come up to one of ours and said virtually the same thing, which boils down to if [Andrei] Gromyko, the foreign minister of the Soviet Union, is invited to Washington when he comes to the General Assembly in September, he will accept.” In other words, the Soviets blinked.

I said, “You may want to think this over.

Because Jimmy Carter cancelled these meetings when they went in to Afghanistan and they’re still there.” President Reagon said, “I don’t have to think it over. Let’s get him here.” And so, we did a little diplomatic minuet and he came. And there was a little fun part because—Nancy Reagan was a pal. She always fixed me up with a Hollywood starlet at White House dinners. [Laughter.] I got to dance with Ginger Rogers. How good does it get? Made Fred Astaire jealous.

Anyway, I went to Nancy and said, “Here’s what’s gonna happen, Nancy. We come to the West Wing, we have a meeting in the AP R I L /MAY 2017

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Oval Office. Then we all walk down the to the mansion; that’s your home. And we have some stand-around time, and then there’s a working lunch. So how about your being there at the stand-around time? This is your home, you’re the hostess, and it would be a nice gesture.” So she says, “Fine.” So we go down, and as soon as Gromyko sees her, he knows all about how influential she was—so he goes over like nobody else is in the room, rivets on her.

And before long he says to her, “Does your husband want peace?” You know Nancy could bristle. She said, “Of course my husband wants peace.” And Gromyko says, “Well then, every night before he goes to sleep, whisper it in his ear: peace.” [Laughter.]

He’s a little taller than Nancy, so she puts her hands on his shoulder, so he has to bend his knee, and she says, “I’ll whisper it in your ear: peace.” [Laughter.]

I said, “Nancy, you just won the Cold War.” [Laughter.]

But that deployment, that was so strategic, that was the turning point. And it’s always interesting to me to contrast that. That was a major show of strength. There were no shots

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fired. There’s a big difference between the use of force and strength. That was an example of strength without the use of force, nobody got killed or anything.

DUFFY: Among your many roles was involvement in labor and as a labor economist.We have a new administration, and part of the concern that brought this administration to power was about jobs and the workforce in the United States. How do we address a changing workforce in the United States? What’s needed to bring jobs back to middle America, to the folks who voted so strongly for our president? What would you do if you were advising this president about jobs?

SHULTZ: The first thing is to have the economy have a strong expansion. If we can get reasonable tax reform, personal and corporate, and get this regulatory overreach that’s been going on back a little, I think the economy will expand. That will produce jobs and a sense of motion in the country. So I think that’s the big [factor].

But we have to remember that our country is a country of immigrants. I remember once Lee Kuan Yew [known as Harry to his

friends] of Singapore was here, and he was a friend of mine. I said to him, “Harry, why are you here?”

He said, “Well, we have to loosen up in Singapore, and something’s going on here that we have to understand. So I’m going to create a venture capital fund and try to be part of this and understand it.” I said, “Well, you’re gonna find whether you go down to Silicon Valley or here in San Francisco, it’s America, but there are people here from all over. So that’s what you’re gonna see.” And he said, “I know that, but it could only happen in America.”

I heard President Reagan say once, “You can go to France, you’ll never become a Frenchman. You can go to Japan, you’ll never become Japanese. ... But anyone can come from anywhere and be an American. “ Let me read something to you that President Reagan said on this subject: “Yes, the torch of Lady Liberty symbolises our freedom and represents our heritage, the compact with our parents, our grandparents, and our ancestors. Other countries may seek to compete with us, but in one vital area, as a beacon of freedom and opportunity that

draws the people of the world, no country on Earth comes close. This, I believe, is one of the most important sources of America’s greatness. We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people, our strength from every country and every corner of the world. And by doing so, we continuously renew and enrich our nation. While other countries cling to the stale past, here in America, we breathe life into dreams. We create the future, and the world follows us into tomorrow. Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we’re a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world into the new frontier. This quality is vital to our future as a nation. If we ever close the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.” [Applause.]

DUFFY: Okay, on to the Russians for a moment. What’s the best strategy to address the recent Russian aggressiveness in Crimea, Ukraine, the Baltics, etc.?

SHULTZ: Russia is out to destroy a sense of the West—to destroy Europe, NATO. I might say they flew a medi-

um-range missile recently, breaking the treaty that I helped negotiate. And for the same reason as before, namely they may want to use it to from our friends and allies. So they moved into the Middle East. They had an agreement and Bill Perry, who you and I both know very well, wonderful guy—he negotiated a treaty involving Russia, Ukraine, Britain, and ourselves, that we would respect the borders of Ukraine when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. They don’t even pay any attention to that. So they’re bad news.

The way to handle them is to stand up to what they’re doing. I’m glad to see troops going into the Baltics. That’s a good move; we’ve gotta be sure we mean it. We’re not just playing games here.

DUFFY: If you pick up the rifle, make sure you are willing to use it.

SHULTZ: I think we should develop an energy initiative for the Baltic states and Poland. We can do it; we can get up enough energy to take away the Russian monopoly of oil and gas which they use. They’re particularly willing to cut off your gas supplies and in the middle of winter and let you freeze to death. So we need to get ahold of that

and build our bargaining power. And then we need to revive Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, because we’re not projecting a message. We should project it including to the Russians: what do we think about all of this.

Then, I think we have to be ready when the worm turns to reach out because they’re playing a very weak hand. Playing it aggressively, but it’s a weak hand. Their demographics are terrible; fertility is very low; their longevity is not much. They’re heavily dependent on oil and gas, and those prices have collapsed.

So they’re in trouble, and the last thing in the world that we want is a Russia in chaos.

So we’ve gotta help it not get to that. But in the meantime, the way to bring them in is to stand up and show that we really mean it.

DUFFY: Do you support a bipartisan commission to investigate their involvement in the 2016 U.S. election?

SHULTZ: Yeah, I think it’s a good thing to know what they did and how they did it.

But we don’t want to build them up too much like they’re Superman [who] can interfere in anybody’s election and elect whomever they want—nonsense. Let’s not build them up.

Photo by Elese Moran

Changemakers

Photos by Sonya Abrams

A panel of opponents of new President Donald Trump discuss the state of activisim in America.

LARIZA DUGAN CUADRA

Executive Director, Carecen SF

RASHAD ROBINSON

Executive Director, Color of Change

ABDI SOLTANI

Executive Director, ACLU of Northern California

TOM STEYER

Founder and President, NextGen Climate

MINA KIM

Anchor and Host, KQED—Moderator

Lariza Dugan Cuadra

Rashard Robinson

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MINA KIM: [There is] a real hunger for movement-building right now. We saw it in the Women’s March right after the inauguration, the Sister Marches across the country and also even across the world, where you saw millions coming together to resist. How do you channel all of that energy into creating lasting change? That’s what these panelists are here to tell you tonight. I’d like to ask each of them to talk about what they feel is at stake right now.

LARIZA DUGAN CUADRA: We’ve just been bombarded in the last two weeks and then the two years leading to the election. From the migrant communities perspective what’s at stake is the fear that our families are feeling, in terms of the real risk of separation. We’ve seen that already, literally over this weekend, where people who even have permanent residency have been detained at airports. And we obviously stand in deep solidarity with the Muslim and Arab communities in the United States.

We are a nation made of immigrants. I am the daughter

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of an immigrant; I’m married to an immigrant, and I can tell you that when Donald Trump won when we woke up that morning, the first thing my son asked me was is Happy going to be okay? That’s my husband. Is he in danger?

What’s gonna happen to X friend? We’re obviously migrant communities so we have mixed-status families. There was a long list of people that my son was immediately worried about. I think that’s true for everyone in our community.

The migrant community is resilient, is strong, and we’ve been in this journey for a long time. But this man, in two weeks, has basically managed to fast-forward everything to a point of just creating a bit of chaos. What’s at stake is family separation, children being afraid and parents being afraid to nd their kids to school. People are afraid to go to work. Just last week, ICE agents showed up to a nonprofit organization in the Mission District. There was no raid, but just their presence alone was enough to instill a profound sense of fear. That’s really the biggest concern—that people will be picked up through sweeps and that families will be separated KIM: Rashard Robinson, what about you?

RASHARD ROBINSON: Barack Obama ran as a change candidate, and Donald Trump ran as a change-the-rules candidate. That archetype is much more dangerous. So beyond this sort of set of issues that I could list off that are either in the news right now, that are under attack or will be over the course of the next several weeks, what’s really under attack is the rules by which we understand government and our society to operate.

Then that actually makes it much harder for us to understand the ways in which we move ourselves forward, because the old rules no longer apply. Will judicial rulings actually be implemented? Will laws that the government doesn’t agree with be enforced? That type of change-the-rules mentality means that the levers of legal or policy don’t apply the

same way. And if we’re not thinking about what it takes to build strong, powerful, people-centered movements while also working to change narrative, and change culture, and change the way we get and receive and move on information, then we’re not actually gonna move. Like we can’t simply legal ourselves out of it, although that’s important. We can’t nonprofit-executive-direct ourselves out of it, and that’s important but those things, those tools alone don’t actually give us the ability to build the type of movement that’s gonna take this country back. So what’s at stake for us are all the structures by which our society works.

We may not have agreed with the housing and urban development secretary in prior administrations, but we knew they knew something about housing and urban development. [Laughter.] And my lemonade stand in elementary school now allows me to be commerce secretary.

And that changing of the rules, that changing of the structures is incredibly dangerous for the future of our democracy.

But as people who want to advocate and make change—and coming from a people who are not immigrants, but whose struggles and whose progress has been at the heart of social change that has made it possible for so many others to also see themselves as full citizens in this country, experiencing the full progress that this country can provide—the rules along the way have provided a road map, not just for black folks but for other communities that have leveraged that playbook, have stepped into that legal framework; all of that is at stake, which means America right now is at stake.

KIM: Abdi Soltani, same question to you. As the head of the Northern California chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union: What is at stake right now in your view?

ABDI SOLTANI: So there’s a great deal at stake, and first of all, it’s a lot of people’s lives. Since Friday, when the executive order on the Muslim ban for the seven countries that were affected was issued, my telephone, text messages, email are just flying off. I’m Iranian-American. I know a lot of people in the Iranian-American community. And the number of people who’ve been contacting me in a full spectrum of situations is truly unfathomable—and how quickly it came about, how little process there was, and it was just not even done like a proper executive order even. So there are people who have contacted me who [are] my age; they’ve had a baby born here in the United States; the grandparents of this baby are coming to meet the grandchild from Iran to spend time and to support their children and to bond with the grandchild, and they are en route in an airport in Vienna and not allowed to board a flight.

All the way to people who’ve lived in this country for many years, they’re on visas, their visas are about to expire in two weeks, and they know that under the current order, they will not have a renewal of that visa most likely in just two weeks. So the issues of immigration, which affect so many people in so many different points in our lives and different status[es], are landing in the community that I know best, the Iranian-American community. And this is just one of the very first salvos of what the next four years are gonna be like.

But the question of what’s at stake, there’s something deeper at stake. What are the fundamental ideas that this country was based on? But deeper even than that, what was the struggle that went into those ideas becoming what they are?

So the First Amendment guarantees us the freedom of religion, and that the government shall not establish a church or give preference to one religion over another. Do we think about how much struggle went into forming that view? The centuries in which one religion oppressed the other. Name a religion that was not once oppressed by the power of the state when it was in the hand of another religion. We cannot find one. A lot went into the First Amendment, then we go through the struggle of slavery. We go through the struggle of the Civil War. We go through the second founding of the United States, the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments.

The 14th Amendment, I hold very dear. It’s the principle of equal protection under the law, and it specifically says for persons, which means citizen[s] and noncitizen[s] alike.

These are weighty things. People fought for these things.

And we’re not going to let them go. Not here, not now, and not under our watch.

KIM: Tom Steyer, Fred Blackwell called this an uncivil time.

How do you define where we are, and what’s at stake?

TOM STEYER: What the other panelists are talking about are the very broad-based attacks on fundamental American rights that we have fought for, for not just years or generations but centuries. You can see this administration lining up to go after the absolute basics, the right to vote; you can see them lining up to try and increase voter suppression. A free press; you can see them going after the right of a press to get information. The belief from the Reformation that there is such a thing as scientific fact, and that we are gonna base our analysis and our decisions on truth telling. We’re not going to have a political person have to vet every scientific release.

Religion, immigration. This idea today that the president said, “Unless you do what I want in terms of the Supreme Court, we’re gonna take away, we’re gonna do these so-called nuclear option and get rid of the filibuster.”

Abdi was talking about where we started at the beginning of the Republic and where we’ve come. We’ve come a long way. Most of the people in this room would not have been considered citizens at the founding of the Republic. The fact that people have been able to progress the way we have, we are far from perfect, but that progress is actually the success of America, right up to marriage equality. And the idea that we would go back on any part of that is so offensive that it’s right at the heart of civil society.

The other thing that is threatened here is the relationship between the states and the federal government. The president is saying [it], specifically about sanctuary cities; he’s saying it about health care. He’s saying, “If you don’t do what I want, I will punish you. I will not treat you like American citizens, I will not treat you like an American state, I will not treat you like Americans. I will punish you until you do what I want, whether you have an obligation to do it or not.” I view that as a shocking fact.

Abdi Soltani

Tom Steyer

Mina Kim

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F E B R UA RY/MA R C H 2016

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INSIGHT Plot or No Plot Dr. Gloria C. Duffy, President and CEO

I

am not a conspiracy theorist. But the available evidence about possible Russian hacking and other manipulation of the U.S. 2016 presidential election is troubling.

The Plot to Hack America, published just pre-election last fall, draws together information from various sources to argue that influencing the election was a Russian intelligence operation.

The author, Malcolm Nance, is a retired U.S. Navy counter-terrorism intelligence officer and cryptographer. He argues that Putin’s objective was to put in place a government in the United States more amenable to Russian interests and less likely to confront Russian behavior. Nance dubs this operation “Lucky Seven.”

Nance’s information fleshes out the reports of a CIA analysis last December that concluded Russia tried to sway the election.

There is no smoking gun in Nance’s book, no memo or wiretap in which President Putin or other senior Russian officials say they are involved in an effort to shape the election. But there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that seems to point to an operation like Lucky Seven having taken place.

According to Nance, an outside investigation by the IT security company Crowdstrike traced the hacking of the Democratic National Committee computers in 2015 and 2016 to IP addresses associated with known Russian hacking operations.

Nance also traces relationships between the Russian government and officials who came in with the new administration. According to Nance, Michael Flynn, who was briefly U.S. national security advisor, was paid for a 2015 appearance in Moscow from RT, the Russian government-funded cable television station.

He also outlines President Trump’s ties to Russian oligarchs, especially Aras Agalarov, with whom Trump collaborated in his winning bid to bring the Miss Universe beauty pageant to Moscow in 2013.

President Trump has also apparently received investments from Russian oligarchs Alex Sapir and Rotem Rosen to construct the Trump SoHo Hotel and condo project in Manhattan.

The next disturbing connection Nance posits is between WikiLeaks and the Russian government. Nance calls WikiLeaks the Russian government’s “intelligence laundromat.” He points out how the embarrassing emails and other information stolen from the DNC by the Russian hackers were passed to WikiLeaks and then released to the public. The effect of the WikiLeaks intelligence breach was to weaken the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.

Early this March there was another WikiLeaks barrage of stolen classified information, coincident with the growing demand to investigate Russian influence on the election. These leaks cast aspersions on the U.S. intelligence community, which is expressing concern about the Russian role in the election.

The effect of WikiLeaks’ activities more recently has been to com-

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promise U.S. intelligence and possibly to weaken U.S. national security. Frustrating U.S. intelligence operations has long been a goal of countries that see U.S. policies as inimical to their objectives.

Add to this our new administration’s favorable statements about Vladimir Putin, and more troubling, alignment with some Russian interests and policies that may not benefit the United States. For example, Russia Photo courtesy of Gloria Duffy has long sought to weaken NATO. President Trump, at least initially, criticized NATO and questioned the U.S. commitment to NATO. He has also suggested we might make various deals with Russia, let Germany rather than the United States oppose Russia’s activities in Ukraine and leave Syria for the Russians to handle.

The Trump administration is also advocating a retreat from the U.S. diplomatic presence in the world, deeply cutting the State Department budget and international programs the U.S. has long maintained, possibly leading to an American retreat from global influence. Obviously, with our opposition to Russian policies in Ukraine and Georgia, in Syria and other regions, that is something the Russians might like to see.

I am not concerned specifically about President Trump, who could be a witting or unwitting beneficiary of Russian interference, if Russian meddling did occur. What is alarming is the possibility that a foreign power like Russia could intervene in a U.S. presidential election. Hacking and cyberwarfare now make this type of interference achievable. The possibility of a foreign country having the ability to pressure or manipulate U.S. officials after they are elected, through WikiLeaks stunts or other means, presents an additional disturbing prospect for our democratic process.

Our ancestors, including my own, fought for the independence of this country, for the right of self-determination and against the control or interference of a foreign power. No matter how imperfect, our democracy is still the best system on the planet for individual freedom, economic prosperity, civil rights, equality, free expression and the other values we cherish. We need to protect it from manipulation or interference.

To put this controversy to rest, we must thoroughly investigate the U.S. intelligence community’s allegations about Russian influence on the 2016 election, in a transparent way. Then we can all examine the evidence and decide what happened and how to deal with the results.

Polar Bears & Wildlife of Churchill A Canadian Adventure November 9-16, 2017

Experience the wildlife of the Arctic tundra and come face-to-face with the world’s largest land carnivore, the polar bear. In Winnipeg, Manitoba tour the city and visit the excellent Canadian Museum for Human Rights.

Continue to Churchill, to begin your expedition into polar bear country. Learn from some of the top polar bear experts as you watch these majestic mammals in their natural environment.

Maximum 16 guests. $6,960 per person, double occupancy

Brochure at commonwealthclub.org/travel | 415.597.6720 | travel@commonwealthclub.org

CST: 2096889-40

To purchase tickets:

The Commonwealth Club of California

visit commonwealthclub.org or call (415) 597-6705 or call (800) 847-7730

P.O. Box 194210 San Francisco, CA 94119

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MONDAY, MAY 1

Details on page 27

TUESDAY, APRIL 18

JOHN MACKEY

KRISTA TIPPET

John Mackey, Co-founder and CEO, Whole Foods Market; Co-author, The Whole Foods Diet: The Lifesaving Plan for Health and Longevity

Krista Tippett, Host, On Being; Author, Becoming Wise: An Inquiry into the Mystery and Art of Living Rev. Alan Jones, Dean Emeritus, Grace Cathedral San Francisco— Moderator

Mackey makes the case for why a whole food, plant-based diet is optimum for a long, healthy, disease-free life. As one of the leaders of this plant-based movement, Mackey shares his vision and discusses the science behind changing the way we eat. He will also address food, politics and health as well as the ethical and environmental impact of our dietary habits.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 3

Details on page 22

Details on page 27

CAITLYN JENNER Caitlyn Jenner, Author, The Secrets of My Life In conversation with Buzz Bissinger, Co-author, The Secrets of My Life; Author, Friday Night Lights Join us for a rare conversation with one of the world’s most prominent transgender women. As former Olympic athlete Bruce Jenner became Caitlyn over the past few years, her personal journey has been public, painful and inspiring. What has her path of discovery taught her about truth, and what has it revealed about the challenges facing the transgender community? Bring your questions, and get ready to hear how a story of pain and deception can ultimately become one of embracing a person’s true identity.

On her NPR program and podcastTippett shines a light on people whose insights kindle in us a sense of wonder and courage. She interviews a variety of people—scientists, poets, activists and theologians from an array of faiths— who have opened themselves up to Tippett’s compassionate yet searching conversations. In her latest book, Tippett distills the insights she has gleaned from these luminous conversations into a master class about living.

THURSDAY, MAY 4

Details on page 28

SHERYL SANDBERG & ADAM GRANT Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Officer, Facebook; Co-author, Option B Adam Grant, Wharton Professor; Co-author, Option B Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant talk about building resilience and moving forward after life’s inevitable setbacks.

After the sudden death of her husband, Sandberg felt certain she and her children would never feel pure joy again. Adam Grant, a psychologist at Wharton, helped her recover. They will share what they’ve learned about helping others in crisis; developing compassion for ourselves; raising strong children; and creating resilient families and communities.