The Commonwealth by The Commonwealth Club of California

Otis Brawley: TREAT THEM RIGHT! pg 6

Social Entrepreneur Revolution pg 47

Dr. Gloria Duffy on senior abuse

JUSTICE SANDRA DAY O’CONNOR

pg 54

pg 48

Commonwealth The

THE MAGAZINE OF THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB OF CALIFORNIA

DEC 2012 / JAN 2013

EL ECT IONS S C I M Y ECONO G R E N E e & $2.00; free for members | commonwealthclub.org

Legendary Turkey From Istanbul to the Turquoise Coast May 16 to 30, 2013

INCLUDES AIRFARE FROM SAN FRANCISCO! Turkey – where Europe and Asia meet to form “the cradle of civilization” – is yours to discover on this exclusive 15-day educational tour, limited to only 28 people. • Discover Istanbul, Turkey’s cultural and • Spend a full day at Turkey’s nonpareil classical city, Ephesus. spiritual heart, and visit the legendary Blue Mosque, Hagia Sofia and Topkapi Palace. • Cruise the exquisite Turquoise Coast for four splendid days, aboard a privately • Experience the sacred World War I battlechartered gulet yacht, relaxing and disfield of Gallipoli. covering hidden sights, quaint fishing • Visit Troy, and explore the wealth of villages and remote ruins. Greco-Roman ruins at ancient Pergamum. • End your journey in the seaside resort • Learn about history and contemporary Antalya, with a side trip to ancient politics during our guest lectures and a Perge. An optional post-trip extension to Cappadocia and Ankara is available. briefing with foreign service staff. Trip Cost: $5,392 total price ($4,995 air, land & cruise inclusive plus $397 airline taxes and departure fees) CST: 2096889-40 Photos: clockwise from top left: Moyan Brenn, axo, CM Ortega, Kristina Nemeth, Magic Ketchup, Hillarie, virtualwayfarer, Alaskan Dude, Kristina Nemeth, Vincent_AF / Flickr

For Information & Reservations: visit commonwealthclub.org/travel call (415) 597-6720 email travel@commonwealthclub.org

INSIDE The Commonwealth VO LU M E 1 0 7 , N O . 0 1 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 2 / J A N UA RY 2 0 1 3

FEATURES ON THE COVER

8 SPECIAL SECTION: THE KEYS TO 2013

Photo by Ed Ritger

Get some visibility into the big issues of 2013 with this special section, featuring “Propositions Power Play,” “Time to Spend Political Capital,” “Budget Balance,” “California’s Economic GPA,” “Election Fallout,” “Is California Fixable?” “Prop. 8 and the Court,” “Bipartisan Power,” and “Hitched to Hetch Hetchy”

48 CITIZEN SANDRA

Photo by Ed Ritger

DEPARTMENTS

EVENTS

4 EDITOR’S DESK

25 PROGRAM

Whad’ya know? A quiz about this combined year-end/new-year issue

5 THE COMMONS Voting in Cuba, Barney Frank is speechless, and some old friends return to the Club

54 INSIGHT

6 DO NO HARM Otis Brawley highlights the damages done to people misdiagnosed and misled

20 BUCKLE UP: THE GREAT

ECONOMIC TURBULENCE

Paul Saffo on the new global economic era, in which disruptions are the norm Photo by Rikki Ward

“California still elects some of its judges. You shouldn’t do that. You should change that. It’s really shocking to me that, after all these years, we still have so many elected judges.” – Sandra Day O’Connor

INFORMATION

26 EIGHT WEEKS CALENDAR Events from December 3 to February 7, 2013

32 PROGRAM LISTINGS 32 LANGUAGE CLASSES

Dr. Gloria C. Duffy President and CEO Protecting Our Seniors

43 IRAN AND THE BOMB Seyed Mousavian offers a plan for bridging the Iran-U.S. nuclear divide

47 THE SOCIAL About Our Cover: Photo by Pidjoe / istockphoto.

ENTREPRENEUR REVOLUTION

Ruth Shapiro on the growing field

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EDITOR’S DESK J O H N Z I P PE R E R V P, M E D I A & E D I TO R I A L

Whad’ya Know?

fter more than a half year of writing Week to Week news quizzes for Huffington Post San Francisco every week, I can’t stop. If someone asks me how I am, I respond with a multiple choice answer. So here is a quiz relating to and inspired by the content of this issue of The Commonwealth.

2. Who are the political odd-couple lawyers leading the antiProp. 8 fight in court? a. Democrat Gloria Allred and Republican Fred Thompson b. Democrat David Boies and Republican Theodore Olson c. Democrat Alicia Florrick and Republican Kenneth Starr d. Democrat Eric Holder and Republican Alberto Gonzalez 3. Where does the name “Hetch Hetchy” come from? a. Early Spanish settlers named the area for their queen’s nickname b. The resevoir was designed by Aldabert “Hetch” Hetchy c. It was the name of the company that won the concession to build and operate the reservoir for 100 years d. It is derived from the Sierra Miwok words for a type of grass 4. What year did Reagan appointee Sandra Day O’Connor become the first female U.S. Supreme Court justice? a. 1981 b. 1980 c. 1983 d. 1986 5. Who funded and promoted Prop. 38, the tax measure in opposition to Governor Jerry Brown’s Prop 30? a. Arnold Schwarzenegger FOLLOW US ONLINE

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Photo by choyoungkwan / Flickr

b. Gavin Newsom c. Molly Munger d. Charles Koch 6. The P5+1 group negotiates with Iran over its nuclear program. Who is the Five Plus One? a. Turkey, Israel, India, the United Kingdom and the United States b. Hillary Clinton, Henry Kissinger, George P. Shultz, Condoleezza Rice and Madeleine Albright c. China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States d. The five permanent UN Security Council members plus Japan 7. Who said the following: “Entrepreneurs and business people around the world and here at home think that at some point America is going to become like Greece or like Spain or Italy, or like California -- just kidding about that one, in some ways.” a. Barack Obama b. Mitt Romney c. Bill Maher d. Jerry Brown 8. How many state propositions were on the November 2012 ballot? a. 6 b. 11 c. 18 d. 10 ANSWERS: 1. (c). 2. (b) 3. (d) 4. (a) 5. (c) 6. (c) 7. (b) 8. (b)

1. What was the international monetary management structure created after World War II? a. The Yalta Conference b. Camp David c. Bretton Woods d. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

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BUSINESS OFFICES The Commonwealth, 595 Market St., 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 | feedback@commonwealthclub.org VP, MEDIA & EDITORIAL John Zipperer | SENIOR EDITOR Sonya Abrams | ART DIRECTOR Steven Fromtling EDITORIAL INTERNS Amelia Cass | CONTRIBUTING PHOTOGRAPHERS Ed Ritger, Rikki Ward ADVERTISING INFORMATION: Mary Beth Cerjan, Development Manager, (415) 869-5919, mbcerjan@commonwealthclub.org The Commonwealth (ISSN 0010-3349) is published bimonthly (6 times a year) by The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105-2805. | PERIODICALS POSTAGE PAID at San Francisco, CA. Subscription rate $34 per year included in annual membership dues. | POSTMASTER: Send address changes to The Commonwealth, The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105-2805. | Printed on recycled paper using soy-based ink. Copyright © 2012 The Commonwealth Club of California. Tel: (415) 597-6700 Fax: (415) 597-6729 E-mail: feedback@commonwealthclub.org | EDITORIAL TRANSCRIPT POLICY: The Commonwealth magazine covers a range of programs in each issue. Program transcripts and question and answer sessions are routinely condensed due to space limitations. Hear full-length recordings online at commonwealthclub.org/archive or contact Club offices to order a compact disc.

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D EC EM BER 2012/JA NUA RY 2013

Commons THE

Talk of the Club

Twit picks

CUBA VOTES

Doppelgängers

When a Choice Is No Choice

A simple ballot

M Photo courtesy of Barney Frank

The Limits to Political Speech Rep. Barney Frank’s election preview cancelled

ust a few days before he was scheduled to address a Commonwealth Club luncheon in San Francisco, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank let us know he was canceling. More accurately: He was forced to cancel. The soon-to-retire Democratic Massachusetts congressman was due to discuss the 2012 election. All was in order, until the House committee that oversees members’ ethics – yes, such a committee exists – ruled that Frank’s trip could not take place. Was it a block

by his political opponents, who hold the House majority and therefore control the committees? Or was it just a mundane example of a committee crossing the T’s and dotting the I’s? We might never get an answer, but that won’t stop the Club from booking future programs with Frank or politicians across the aisle. Politics is a sharp-elbows game, and Frank is no newcomer to receiving or giving political jabs. But you’ll have to wait a little longer before you hear him jab from the Commonwealth Club’s stage.

Historic Meetup Shultz soiree sees superstars

t Club events, you can rub shoulders with some of the most interesting people around. At one recent event, it was even possible to rub shoulders with people from our past. Audrey Hepburn and presidents Bill Clinton, Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt were among the former Club speakers who worked the crowd. The famous speakers were, of course, actors who provided some fun history at a party to support the Commonwealth Club’s capital campaign, held at the home

of Club Board of Governors member Charlotte Mailliard Shultz and former Secretary of State George P. Shultz. The Shultzs are honorary chairs of the capital campaign, which is raising funds for the Club’s new building at 110 The Embarcadero. As you can see in the photo above, the Roosevelt cousins were more than happy to pose with

otor magnate H e n r y Fo r d famously told people they could have any color car they want, as long as it’s black. If that frustrates you, imagine going to the polls in Cuba. A recent Commonwealth Club trip to the island nation found the expected – artists, great food – and the unexpected – Hurricane Sandy threatened but did not disrupt their journey. One unexpected thing that happened when they were in the communist nation was that an election was taking place. But, like Henry Ford’s admonition to buyers, the only choices were all from the Communist Party. The sign in the photo below tells Cuban voters in Spanish, “your vote counts.”

Photo courtesy Charlotte Mailliard Shultz

Club Board member Colleen Wilcox and President Gloria C. Duffy. The most popular character at the program was reportedly the actor portraying two-time Club speaker Chesley Sullenberger.

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Photo by Oona Marti

nyone with a common name knows the online world makes it easy to be confused with someone of the same name. We know your pain. For example, if you saw this tweet last month – “It’s FRYday! Come join the Detroit Women’s #Rugby team as they work the Fish Fry at the Commonwealth Club tonight starting at 5:30PM.“ Not us. Or “I’m at a place called the Commonwealth Club using their wifi in London. This is the life!” – we do have wifi you are welcome to use, but we’re not in London. Or “A bit disappointed @ MCHammer did not join @JerryBrownGov at Commonwealth Club. Guess we’ll have to wait til he runs for Oakland mayor.“ OK, that was about us.

Do noHarm

Sometimes even patients who are trying to get help are forced to endure overtreatment, mistreatment, and even risk death. Excerpt from “Dr. Otis Brawley: Fighting Patient Mistreatment in America,” October 29, 2012. O TIS B R AW LEY Chief Medical Officer and

Executive Vice President, American Cancer Society; Co-author, How We Do Harm: A Doctor Breaks Ranks About Being Sick in America alph was a guy who called me in 2003 because I’d been outspoken about prostate cancer. Ralph was a wonderful human being. He and I had a lot in common. He was a white guy from Indiana, I was a black guy from Detroit – it’s still the Midwest. Ralph had had a Jesuit education as well. Ralph and I used to tell Jesuit stories and compare them. Ralph had been forced to go to a local mall for prostate cancer screening by his wife. She had seen this advertisement from a hospital that they were having free prostate screening. He didn’t want to go, but she forced him to go. He had an abnormal measurement. He went to the doctor’s office he was referred to, and everyone in the waiting room had been screened at that same place. He didn’t like that place so he went someplace else. He went across town to this young guy who had a new da Vinci robot. His hospital was advertising him. He liked this guy, and he got the da Vinci Prostatectomy for prostate cancer. He had one out of 12 biopsies positive with 20 percent having Gleason 3 plus 3 disease. If you’ve ever read the book The Emperor of All Maladies, I do sort of think of myself as Forrest Gump, because about three quarters of the people in that book I know personally. One of them is a guy named Don Gleason who did the Gleason scoring for prostate cancer. He never wanted Gleason 3 plus 3 prostate cancer to be called cancer. Don used to say, “People want to cut cancer out, so I want to call this adenosis.” Unfortunately the urologists, the surgeons, the treaters overruled this pathologist and called it cancer. Ralph had this cancer. He got it cut out with the da Vinci robot. His PSA didn’t go down. He’s a smart guy, college educated. His prostate is in a bottle in somebody’s lab, and he still has PSA in his

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DEC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

Illustration by Steven Fromtling

blood. He must have cancer somewhere. He average of $3,000 to figure out why the PSA starts freaking out. So he goes doctor shopping is abnormal. Of the 135, 45 would actually and he finally finds a radiation oncologist who, have prostate cancer. Of the 45 with prostate for $80,000 billed to his insurance, gives him cancer, he knew the percentage that would I.M.R.T., basically radiation to the pelvis. This get surgery, the percentage that would get is done blindly, sort of a shotgun blast, maybe radiation, the percentage that would get cryowe’ll hit cancer there. Unfortunately Ralph surgery. Then he told me, if we screen 1,000 ends up with every side effect you can imagine. guys and diagnose 135 with an abnormal PSA When Ralph called me to talk about my feel- and diagnose 45 with prostate cancer, this is ings about prostate cancer screening, he had the number of artificial sphincters we’re going an ostomy on the left to collect stool, and an to sell because this is the number of guys that ostomy on the right to collect urine, because are going to have incontinence to the point he had had a pelvic dissection. It was terrible. that diapers just don’t hack it for them. Then Ralph and I talked about prostate cancer he apologized to me, because there is this new screening. He asked why I was so outspoken thing called Viagra on the market that screwed about prostate screening, and I told him I’d up his estimate of how many penile implants been an aide to David Satcher when he was he was going to sell for impotence. surgeon general. I got to go to President I’m an epidemiologist from the National Clinton’s apology for the Tuskegee experiment at the White House. “In this country, we have a form of The Tuskeegee syphilis experiment was a period of about 40 years where the U.S. government We allow it all to happen.” lied to about 700 men. Two weeks after that, I was back at the National Cancer Institute Cancer Institute. I ask the money question. It and I went to see a cancer center. When the turns out it really was not the money question. guy from the NCI, the federal government I ask, “If you screen 1,000 guys, how many agency that gives out millions of dollars goes lives will you save?” He took his glasses off, to a cancer center, they have this dog and pony looked at me like I was a fool and he said, show that they put on. “Don’t you know? There has never been a In the intermission I happened to be sitting study to show this stuff saves lives. I can’t next to a marketing guy. That’s when I realized give you an estimate on that.” It took me a that marketing people are evil. This marketing second to realize that this guy knows how guy started talking about their prostate cancer many artificial sphincters he’s going to sell if screening program at the hospital. He could he screens 1,000 people, he knows how much explain to me that if they announced they were money he’s going to make if he screens 1,000 going to screen 1,000 men six weeks from now people, but he doesn’t know if he is going to at a certain mall, he knew how much extra busi- save a single life. ness they would get at the breast cancer clinic The American Urological Association for mammography. Women would go there recommendation for screening, which I like a because if that hospital cares so much about lot, says, “Given the uncertainty of PSA testtheir men, they’re taking their mammogram ing results doing more benefit than harm, a business there. He knew how much extra busi- thoughtful and broad approach to PSA screenness they would get in their chest pain clinic. He ing is critical. Patients need to be informed knew the extra publicity they would get for free. of the risks and benefits of testing before it Once they get to the mall and screen 1,000 is undertaken. The risk of over-detection guys who volunteer over the age of 50, their and over-treatment should be included in previous years’ data for several years showed this discussion.” that 135 would have an abnormal screen and Despite that, there is all this free testing still come to their hospital to figure out why it was being done at all of these hospitals. There is one abnormal. Even though 10 additional would group that has vans that have been purchased have an abnormal screen and go to their com- by Kimberly-Clark. They go around with petition, but they would get 135, charge an various doctor groups and do free screening

in supermarket parking lots, and in the summertime they go around to state fairs. Why is Kimberly-Clark buying these vans? I don’t know if prostate cancer screening saves lives but it sure as hell sells adult diapers. KimberlyClark makes Depends undergarments. There has been a prospective randomized trial of lung cancer screening that says if you screen 27,000 people at high risk for lung cancer – meaning they have smoked more than 30 years at a pack a day – you actually save 84 lives, but you cause instrumentation that kills 16. That’s science. We at the ACS recommend that people who have an extensive smoking history realize the double-edged sword of screening. Yes, it saved 84 people, but it caused 16 people to die premature deaths. By the way, there were still 340 people who died over 10 years. If you want to get screened, you should get screened. Saint Joseph’s hospital in Atlanta has ads right now recommending that non-smoking women . in their 40s who have lived in an urban area for more than 10 years get screened because, according to Saint Joseph’s hospital, they’re at high risk for lung cancer. Their business plan actually involves the fact that 25 percent of all non-smokers will have a false positive exam and your insurance will pay the fee to figure out why that exam was false positive. In this country we have a form of corruption in medicine. We allow it all to happen. Who is at fault? It’s the doctors, the hospitals, the insurance companies, the lawyers, the patients, the patient advocacy groups – we all accept it. We all accept not being scientific, not being rational. We keep talking about rationing health care in the United States. We need to be talking about rational use of health care. If we’d been rational, bone marrow transplant would’ve only been available during a clinical trial in the 1980s and never have been offered in the 1990s. I’ve come to realize that when you’re talking to doctors, it’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it. That was Upton Sinclair, by the way.

corruption in medicine

This program was made possible by the generous support of the California HealthCare Foundation.

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THE KEYS TO 2013 We enter the new year after a bruising election and still-unresolved issues involving the economy, environment, education and more. See what guidance recent Club speakers have for 2013.

PROPOSITIONS

POWER PLAY TERRY CHRISTENSEN Professor Emeritus, San Jose State University

BARBARA MARSHMAN Editorial Pages Editor, San Jose Mercury News

KIRK O. HANSON

John Courtney Murray SJ University Prof. and Exec. Director, Markkula Center for Applied Ethics

JOHN ZIPPERER

Vice President of Media and Editorial, The Commonwealth Club – Host ZIPPERER: We’ve got a slew of propositions [on the November 2012 ballot]. Eleven of them have qualified. Talk about the ones you think are most significant. MARSHMAN: The most important ones on the ballot are 30 and 38, the two tax measures. Molly Munger’s, Prop. 38, is the direct tax for K-12 schools and very direct – money goes directly to the schools, not to the districts. Jerry Brown’s, Prop. 30, is a broader tax; it raises money for schools but also for some other things, it’s partly an income tax sur-

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Would California be better off if the propositions passed? How would they change our state?

Excerpt from “Week to Week,” October 4, 2012

charge on the wealthy, and it’s a small, quarter-cent sales tax. ZIPPERER: Brown’s is temporary. Is hers? MARSHMAN: They’re both temporary. His is seven years, hers is 12 years. Hers will raise a lot more money over time, but it will also create this whole new bureaucracy. The terrible thing would be if nothing passes, because the state has cut and cut and cut, and you just can’t go on doing that without having some kind of recovery. Particularly for the schools. Prop. 30 has the best chances of passing and will do the most good. Unfortunately, Molly is not just campaigning for her Prop. 38 but is campaigning pretty viciously against Jerry’s Proposition 30. If they kill each other, it will be truly tragic. If neither passes, we are going to see some really bad things happening in our schools. CHRISTENSEN: I agree. Prop. 30 is the most important initiative on the ballot. In funding for the public sector, education in particular and higher education, we’ve cut and cut and cut, and there’s got to be something to stabilize it. This is not going to supplement things significantly; it’s just going to stabilize. We can’t cut two weeks off the K-12 school year. My goodness, we’re in international competition economically. We just can’t weaken our education system any further. So Prop. 30 is important. Prop. 38 kind of mixes things up in a way that can confuse voters, and you know what California voters do when they get confused about ballot measures: They just vote No.

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Which also brings me to another ballot measure, 40; it’s the referendum on redistricting. If we just vote No on Prop. 40, then the redistricting commission’s plan is invalid and we go back to the old system where they have to do a whole new plan. So we have to vote Yes not to repeal. MARSHMAN: It’s very confusing. HANSON: I would agree that 30 is the single most important thing. This is why, in order to have 30 on the ballot, we elected Jerry Brown. We elected Jerry Brown and said, “Use the fact that you’re an old fella that doesn’t have another election to run to do the right thing.” So he’s put this on the ballot and said, “This is the only way to bail yourselves out, California.” If this does not pass, we are in deep trouble, and education is going to be the big victim – and higher education is going to suffer dramatically, as well as K-12. The two-week estimate is one of the likely scenarios, that we would have to shorten the school year. MARSHMAN: The main reason that Jerry’s measure is better than 38 is that it does also help higher education; 38 does not. CHRISTENSEN: And some of [Prop. 30’s revenue] goes into the general fund and does not have strings. Part of our budget problem in California is that so much of the budget is earmarked through the initiative proccess that the governor and the legislature don’t have the discretion to move it where it might be most needed. This program was made possible by the generous support of Silicon Valley Bank.

POLITICAL CAPITAL What is the fiscal cliff and what will the country do when it faces it at the end of 2012? Both parties are concerned about it, but their prescriptions for dealing with it are very different.

Excerpt from “A Political Prognosis for the Presidential Race and Its Aftermath,” October 26, 2012

HENRY BRADY Dean of

the Goldman School of Public Policy and Professor of Political Science, UC Berkeley

e’re in trouble. When we get to something like the fiscal cliff, we’ve got problems. The fiscal cliff is a term used to describe a set of tax cuts that will expire, tax increases that will occur, expenditure cuts that will automatically occur, and expenditures that will need to be reauthorized if they are going to happen again – reappropriated, actually, is the technical term. If we make all of the tax increases, because the tax cut expiring is a tax increase, expenditures being cut means we’re spending out less. This takes an enormous amount of stimulus out of the economy. We’re going to be taxing people more heavily; they’re going to spend less. We are going to be spending less as a government, therefore there will be less money to be spent. As a result, if these things happen, we have $680 billion in destimulation of the economy. You might remember the stimulus was about $800 billion. And by the way, if you

think that the stimulus had no impact whatsoever, you don’t have to worry about the fiscal cliff; it won’t have an impact. So to be consistent, you either have to believe the stimulus worked and the fiscal cliff is a problem, or you have to believe the stimulus didn’t work and the fiscal cliff isn’t a problem. That kind of consistency isn’t found out there among most politicians. Most politicians of the Left and Right think the fiscal cliff is a problem. One reason the fiscal cliff will have a big impact is because it’s actually not just a one-time $680 billion destimulation of the economy; it’s a repeated destimulation, year after year. So it’s as if you had destimulation programs this year, next year, on and on and on. What are the estimates? Goldman Sachs, Moody’s Analytics and the Congressional Budget Office think that if all these things occur – tax cuts expire, tax increases occur, expenditures are cut and this kind of destimulation occurs – we will have a decline in GDP of about 4 percent. That’s a recession. It’s a really significant recession. So that’s the bad news. Let me tell you the good news. If we do these things, since we’re going to have more tax revenue coming in and less spending, we’re actually going to help solve our budget deficit problem. One way to do that is to really seriously destimulate the economy, using the austerity kinds of programs that have been used in Europe, that have had some impact on helping with the budget problems they have there. Though the bad thing that happens is by destimulating the economy, you send it into a downward spiral of people losing jobs, and then there’s fewer people to tax because there’s fewer people working. So the needle’s eye that has to be gone through here is that you want to stimulate the economy, but you want to solve these

THE FISCAL CLIFF IS A REPEATED DESTIMULATION YEAR AFTER YEAR.

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Photo courtesy of Henry Brady

TIME TO SPEND

long-term budget deficit problems. That’s a tough one. One answer is to do something short-term to maintain the stimulus but at the same time have a deal where you promise that you’re going to deal with the longer-term problems. The likely results from the election, what does this mean for the fiscal cliff? Obama is more than likely to be president, though I wouldn’t put high confidence on it. Likely the Senate will be Democratic and the House Republican. That’s one picture of what the future looks like. The other picture is that Romney will be president; then I think the Senate might go Republican because in his coattails he will bring along some of those Senate races, and the House will be Republican. If you have the first scenario, with Obama wins, you’re going to get gridlock but there’s room for a deal. I think you’re going to get a Simpson-Bowles kind of deal from the president. On the other hand, if Romney wins, the Republicans will have a very open field. I suspect they will use reconciliation – where you only need 51 votes in the Senate – again and again and again, and they’ll make major cuts in entitlement programs, and they will really go to town in trying to deal with the deficit, and in the process, destimulate the economy.

BUDGET

BALANCE

California’s ability to dig itself out of a hole requires more than quick fixes, argues our panel. Did the props help?

Excerpt from “Resolving California’s Budget Crisis: Lessons from A New Six-State Study,” September 20, 2012

LENNY MENDONCA Member, California Forward Leadership Council; Director, McKinsey and Company

GEORGE SHULTZ Former U.S. Secretary of State and U.S.

Secretary of Labor; Member, Advisory Board on the State Budget Crisis

DAVID CRANE Former Special Advisor to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger; Member, Advisory Board on the State Budget Crisis

KAROL DENNISTON Partner,

Schiff Hardin LLP’s Municipal Restructuring Practice; Instrumental in Passage of California Assembly Bill 506

RANDY SHANDOBIL UC Berkeley Graduate School of

Journalism; Former Political Reporter, KTVU Television — Moderator CRANE: Spending on Medicaid, pensions and retiree health care is growing at rates that exceed any reasonable expectation for revenue growth. To give you a sense of that math, just consider the recent pension legislation passed in California. The state announced that that reform would save between $42 and $55 billion over the next 30 years, which is a significant amount of money. But what they didn’t announce is the context in which those savings will occur, which is that the state expects to spend more than $600 billion on retirement costs over that same 30-year period. And reputable third parties project the state will spend more than twice that amount. With federal deficit reduction a near certainty, likely cuts in federal grant dollars and potential changes to the federal tax

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code further threaten state and local governments. The federal government provides states more than $600 billion per year. The impact on California from just a 10 percent reduction in federal dollars would be huge. State budget practices such as treating borrowings as revenue and not disclosing all costs obscure truth and make fiscal stability all but impossible. MENDONCA: We need to extend the budget horizon. We need to think about longterm expenditure commitments and move into a two-year budget cycle. Budgets also need to include five-year fiscal forecasts for major programs such as education, health and human services, criminal justice, and infrastructure so that progress on state-wide goals can be tracked. This focus on a longer term view, transparent and performing ac-

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countable government is at the heart of the California performance and accountability act, Proposition 31, which will be on the [November 2012] ballot. SHANDOBIL: Can you comment on how the California economy is likely to do in the next few years and whether that could affect the nation’s recovery? SHULTZ: I think California is a fantastic place. What a piece of real estate. Historically people used to come here because the education was so good. And look what’s happening to us. You have to say to yourself, looking out over the last 20 years, Latinos, who are soon to be the dominant ethnic group in California, 43 percent did not finish high school. A little over 10 percent finished college. So you look at places that have done well and you say it’s not the kids’ fault, it’s the system’s fault. We’re educating a labor force that’s not going to be able to do the jobs that are being created by all this hot stuff. So the jobs will go elsewhere. We have some very fundamental problems that are going to affect the long-run prosperity of this dramatically productive state that’s got so much going for it. It just makes you cry out for reform in these processes, so we can get on and take advantage of everything California has to offer.

Can props save the day? SHANDOBIL: There are at least three ballot initiatives that deal with the budget. There are three tax issues, and each of them, in an effort to win votes, dedicate all or most of the money raised to some specific popular cause, like schools or clean air. In general, is that a wise approach, or does that end up handcuffing state legislators? CRANE: In general, it’s not a wise approach to have ballot-box budgeting; it’s one of the reasons why California has the problems it has today. The legislators in California have the power, along with the governor, to fix

all these problems. Tomorrow. The state legislature could address all the problems that really afflict the state – from Corrections spending, which is $10 billion this year, we incarcerate more than 150,000 people, we have a legislatively passed law from the 1970s called determinate sentencing that the legislature could reform tomorrow. That alone was the biggest contributor to California’s prison population. The legislature could reform pensions and retiree health care and compensation for prison guards and others in California. The legislature could reform the tax system in California. SHANDOBIL: Last night, the respected Public Policy Institute of California released a poll showing Prop. 31 losing badly, so why do you feel so many Californians don’t see things your way, or is the concept too difficult to understand? MENDONCA: The specifics of that poll were that the vast majority don’t know what they’re talking about and are undecided. There are a small number of people who know what the proposition actually is; that is part of the challenge with complicated reform initiatives. The reality is, most people haven’t decided what they think yet. A large portion of the guts of Proposition 31 came from a deliberative poll that was done with citizens in California. We brought 400 people together last June to a hotel in Torrance, California, for the weekend to deliberate on, If you had your choice, you were informed, what would you like? Six of the things that in each case started with approval rates above 55 percent and in every case ended with approval rates above 70 percent are at the core of the measure, and those are things like the two-year budget, ensuring there are clear goals for government programs and reporting back on those, that you have to publish projections before the budget, that you have to adopt two-year instead of one-year budgets. Those are the types of things that are in there.

IL SHANDOBIL: Recent big news: Governor Brown’s pension reform? A Step in the right direction? Not enough? A big charade? CRANE: Mayor Chuck Reed was asked about that the other day. He said he was spending most of his time thumbing through a thesaurus looking for synoyms for the word “small.” I’m not even so sure it’s a step in the right direction, because it may lead people to think something’s been done. It’s a bit like climate change. If you think you’ve done something to address the problem, and you really haven’t, it shows up many years down the road and you’re in a worse position. That reform didn’t come close to what states like Rhode Island, led by a Democratic treasurer, Gina Raimondo, or Minnesota, or Colorado had done. California, unlike those states, is unwilling to spread the pain beyond citizens, new employees and taxpayers. The other people that need to share in the pain are current employees, with respect to years not yet worked, and retirees, with respect to COLAs. The math makes it clear it’s relatively small. It’s a savings of maybe 5 percent. Most of that even is toward the tail end of the next 30 years. It will have very little impact on all the services that are being squeezed out.

Glass half empty? Half full? SHANDOBIL: What are some of the calamities we could face? SHULTZ: You’re going to drum up the business for bankruptcy experts and people who know how to work out of a problem. What happens is if you go the way you’re going, you’re not able to pay your bills, literally. CRANE: Part of the problem is that people hear there’s a budget crisis so often, they get numb to it. They hear there’s a budget crisis, yet for most individuals life goes on. Any tax increase, no matter what they say, is going to dampen economic growth.

“We have fundamental problems that [will] affect the long-run prosperity of this state.” – Shultz How do you fix it? We need to back up, take a look and [agree that] some of these are legacy problems, and let’s look at it from a business perspective. Then we need to bring the ocmmunity together, because if you don’t, you’re going to affect the bond market in a way that the municipals are not going to be able to access it. That hampers the future in much bigger and more complicated ways.

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Photo by Sonya Abrams

So what happens if it keeps going is the frog gets boiled more and more. DENNISTON: From a municipal perspective, it’s a a tragedy if we don’t do something now. Secretary Shultz is right; it’s going to create a lot of work for people like me. But what we don’t seem to appreciate yet as a society is that bankruptcy in a municipal context is a black hole. We can’t fix it. If we can’t have tax reform, if we can’t deal with all of those other issues to increase revenue, we can’t fix the problem. You can bring all kinds of toolkits and restructuring options, but without some reform, you can’t fix it.The people hurting now are the people in all these small cities that can’t balance their budgets, that have already shut their libraries, already shut down all of the extras, and are now beginning to look at ways to reduce police and fire. Vallejo couldn’t balance its budget one year after exiting bankruptcy, and it still has a crime rate that’s frightening.

Our expert panelists give their verdict on California’s economic policies and performance, and how the state can improve both.

Excerpt from “Grading California’s Economy: Prospec ts for Economic Recovery,” September 19, 2012

CALIFORNIA’S E

DEVOL: Let’s [talk] about manufacturing, and what some tout as the new clean, green-tech jobs in the manufacturing sector, including alternative energy. Joel, a lot of people have touted these sectors as a way to create middle class jobs. How many of these jobs do you think will end up in California? There’s a lot of investment going into these sectors, but are the jobs going to stay here? KOTKIN: It seems to me that manufacturing is manufacturing, and it’s going to be very difficult for people to do manufacturing, green or otherwise, in California under the current circumstances. Second, many of these green jobs are very heavily subsidized by ratepayers, taxpayers, and I don’t know how long that goes on. You’re already seeing some serious problems in the solar sector and the wind sector. I think this has some limitation. The other thing is that because of the policies that California in particular has, we have very, very high energy costs. Not to tout Utah, but I was just there recently, at a gigantic Intel factory, which is something every American can be proud of, they’ve won all the awards on flash memory – it’s 1,600 people working there, a half-milelong factory. Great jobs, I’d love to see it in California. The CEO said there’s just no way in the world they could do that in California. The electricity cost is just too high, the electricity supply is just too unreliable; you

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can’t afford to have the electricity go out in a semiconductor plant. These are great jobs, highly skilled jobs. And the design functions are integrated into the rest. I think California has really allowed the manufacturing economy to deteriorate. When we did a ranking for Forbes of the manufacturing jobs over the last decade, two of the worst areas in terms of loss of jobs on the manufacturing side were Los Angeles and San Francisco. If we don’t get that going, I think we’re going to see more losses. A lot of the ancillary services that are connected to manufacturing also will go. Manufacturing generates lots of opportunities for advertising, PR, even lawyers, accountants, business services in general. We’ve seen very strong business services growth in Seattle, which has the advantage of both having a real tech economy, not based on the social media bubble, and also has an enormous manufacturing sector built around what we used to have here in aerospace.

Jobs fly away DEVOL: Intel now has more employees in the state of Oregon than it has in the state of California. Ro, how can California create manufacturing jobs and take advantage of the green technology sector?

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KHANNA: First, I agree with Joel [Kotkin], and I think we need to look at manufacturing more broadly, as advanced manufacturing, not single out a particular technology. But then what we need is regional efforts to make the business climate hospitable for manufacturing. California has some natural advantages, resources. We’ve got the national laboratories, we’ve got great community colleges, we’re a nation and a state of immigrants, we’ve got such great talent and diversity. So how do we take these natural advantages we have and make the most of them? Well, we’ve got problems; we’ve got permitting problems, we have problems of tax incentives, we have problems with people not graduating with the right skills. My hope and belief is that regional organic solutions to this will be more effective than letting Sacramento or Washington fix the problem. CHIANG: I think we have to have a catchment approach. We really have to make government much more efficient. I have a friend who owns the largest shrimp-importing company in California, and he has to comply with four different government agencies, most of it health-related. Obviously, we ought to integrate those functions, have all those agencies working together, or time it properly so he can reduce his administrative costs in terms of compliance with government. Second, and this is a huge obstacle, we

JOHN CHIANG

Controller, State of California

PETER GRUEBELE

Executive Vice President, Commercial Banking, Wells Fargo

JOEL KOTKIN

Distinguished Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures, Chapman University; Author, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050

ECONOMIC GPA

Can it be fixed? GRUEBELE: Going back to the perspective of manufacturing jobs and if you start focusing more on green energy and technology, from a banking perspective, there is clearly an interest and support to assist our customers in those areas. We have allocated and have lent more than $1.6 billion toward wind energy in the past five years, $11.5 billion has been lent to customers for green and LEED efficient buildings. So there is an interest for us to support our customers, but whether they’re in a friendly enough state so they can take advantage of the financing that’s available, is there an interest, is there a tax ability for them

to move forward on these projects – is really the question. Is it going to be affordable, is it efficient for them, and is it something that’s sustainable for them in order to complete the projects? That’s the biggest challenge. There’s always going to be a willingness to support various industries and manufacturing opportunities, it’s more a question of whether the businesses are going to take on that challenge because of what they perceive might be an ineffective business climate. DEVOL: The most pressing economic concern for California seems to be the liabilities held by the state in the underfunded and unfunded pension obligations. What do you predict? [How can we] manage that problem? CHIANG: There was a legislative package that was just signed by the governor. It is a strong start. We obviously have to keep track of what the additional obligations are going to be. The big question is, Can you cut into current worker’s pensions? Under a California constitutional case, those are vested rights. Some people are going to challenge those rights. You need action by all of the relevant agencies and parties, so we can try to get a better grip on the pension issue. One of the things we have to understand is that this is a very different and dynamic age. In 2000, the state pension plans were 100 percent funded. But we know a lot of the things that happened in the intermediate 12

Visiting Lecturer, Department of Economics, Stanford University; Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce, Obama Administration; Author, Entrepreneurial Nation: Why Manufacturing Is Still Key to America’s Future

ROSS DEVOL

Chief Research Officer, Milken Institute — Moderator

Photo by Ed Ritger

really have to update California’s tax code. This is a political issue, so it’s challenging the institutional forces and the tax credits that have been built in, for the greater interests of all California. Our corporate tax apportionment methodology encourages people to hire people and to open up shop outside the state of California. When Rick Perry says, “I’m coming and taking California jobs” – Rick, you don’t even have to come here. Just look at our tax formula, and we say we will ship jobs to Singapore, India, China, Texas, South Carolina. So that is something we have to address, and the sooner the better.

RO KHANNA

years. So we just have to be smart to make sure that we incorporate the risk practices that weren’t fully up to date. We have to make adjustments, recognizing that this is a different world; it was easier to invest when the United States was 40 percent of the world’s GDP. We also had a home-field advantage. We now look at emerging markets that have faster rates of growth but have higher barriers of entry that a lot of investors in America aren’t accustomed to. So we’re going to have some growing pains for the intermediate future. And then you look at QE III and what it’s going to do to the fixed-income portfolio, what it does to inflation, it’s going to have an impact on our adjustments to the adjustment rate. This program was made possible by the generous support of Chevron.

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If California’s problems are self-inflicted, even the solutions present some self-inflicted problems, says this veteran political observer.

Excerpt from “Ballot Box 2012: A Key to the CA Election,” October 24, 2012

DAN WALTERS Political

Columnist, The Sacramento Bee

DANIEL BORENSTEIN

Editorial Writer, Contra Costa Times and the Oakland Tribune – Moderator

ELECTION

WALTERS: It’s unlikely to happen. It’s unlikely either one of them will pass, in fact. The parts that are in conflict, such as the income tax, would be resolved by which one got more votes. So you wouldn’t pile one on top of the other. It means the sales tax portion would go into effect, because there’s nothing in Molly Munger’s [Prop 38] that has to do with sales tax. How it would affect actual spending is anybody’s guess. The courts would have to sort all that out, because she would give her money directly to the schools, bypassing the state budget, whereas Jerry Brown’s [Prop 30] money would go into the state budget. The more interesting question might be, What happens if both of them fail – which is the more likely scenario, in which case you have open war in Sacramento to divvy up the remaining dollars.

FALLOUT WALTERS: Jerry Brown came into office last year, 28 years after he left his first governorship. The stuff he found on his desk was the same stuff he left behind in 1983 because it had not been resolved! Same thing: Water, transportation, state budget deficit. He dropped a budget deficit on his successor, George Deukmejian, and he had one dropped on him by Arnold Schwarzenegger. They hadn’t fixed the thing. That indicates the system is not really funcioning very effectively. BORENSTEIN: There seems to be a great deal of concern about what happens if both 30 and 38 pass?

IS CALIFORNIA FIXABLE? California’s structural governmental problems are exacerbated by a disconnected citizenry, even as they vote on important measures that will affect the lives of nearly every Californian.

Excerpt from “California Votes: What’s at Stake for the Golden State,” October 3, 2012

ROBERT HERTZBERG

Member, Think Long Committee for California; Co-chair, California Forward; Executive Committee Chairman, The Public Policy Institute of California; Former Speaker, CA Assembly

COREY MARSHALL

LENNY MENDONCA

Board Member, California Forward; Chairman Emeritus, Bay Area Council; Chairman, Economic Institute of the Bay Area; Director, McKinsey & Company, Inc.

SCOTT SHAFER

Host and Reporter, “The California Report” – Moderator

Good Government and Policy Director, SPUR 14 THE COMMO N WE AL TH DEC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

SHAFER: There are 11 measures on the state ballot. What do you think is most critical on the ballot? MENDONCA: One of the most fundamental steps in trying to help make California government actually work is Proposition 31, the Government Performance and Accountability Act. It’s really a product of a long deliberation across the state starting with more than 70 town conversations through a very large, first ever in California deliberative poll – that we’ve talked about in The Commonwealth Club before – where 400 scientifically selected citizens representative of the state came together for a weekend, debated and talked about what they cared about; six of the most important things that they cared about that all had approval [by the participants of ] two thirds and afterwards 67 percent, are part of proposition 31. It’s really about trying to make government

BORENSTEIN: Let’s go through that scenario, since it’s looking more and more likely. What is likely to happen if 30 fails and even more likely 38 fails? WALTERS: Current law says that if 30 fails, there will be automatic trigger spending cuts, most of which will come out of K–12 education, some of which will come out of the colleges, and a very few dollars out of other things. But most of it comes out of K–12, so that’s why you see the ads, “Save the schools, vote for Proposition 30.” But it’s saving the schools from something Jerry Brown and the legislature decreed would happen. It’s kind of extortion. But would it actually happen if Prop 30 doesn’t pass? Jerry Brown says yes, there’s no way he would back off of those triggers. But what happened is that the triggers are in such a way that they are legally questionable and the school people would go to court immediately, and nobody knows how that would turn out. And then the other problem is that they’re really counting on $8.5 billion

this year out of Proposition 30, but the triggers are only $6 billion. So even if they pull the triggers, they still have a $2 billion problem. And they have another problem, which is that the Facebook IPO was counted on for $1.5 billion, and that’s not coming to pass. And the spending’s running higher than they anticipated, and the other revenues are also lower. So what you have, if Proposition 30 doesn’t pass, is about an $11–12 billion problem in this year’s budget, and nobody knows how they would begin to approach that. It’s a huge gamble. They went ahead and did a budget based on a whole series of assumptions, and it may be that none of the assumptions will come true – the Facebook thing won’t come true, Prop 30 won’t come true, all these other revenue assumptions won’t come true, and they’re going to have an enormous mess on their hands [after election day]. BORENSTEIN: In the midst of all this, we got high-speed rail passed this year. What’s going to happen in the midst of

perform, make it accountable and make it transparent. It’s making a dent at the biggest problem California government faces, which is lack of trust from citizens that it can work. The biggest problem we’ve got is that when you ask a large group of people in California how much of the money going to Sacramento do you think is wasted, they started at the high 30s and usually ended up somewhere in the 40s percentages. So until citizens have confidence that their money is being well spent, it’s really hard to get anything else done. What this is about is helping restore trust by ensuring that what’s going on is really transparent and really clear to citizens. Among other things, it would require that the budgeting process happen over two years as opposed to [the current system under which] they’re continually in a budget process. At the end of the second year of that session, there would be a review of the programs, and the legislature would be talking about what’s working and what’s not. So those of you who are in the media wouldn’t just have to talk about the budget

all the time; you could talk about what are the outcomes we’re getting.

all this budget craziness as the finances are going down the tube, where’s high-speed rail going to go? WALTERS: Well, the high-speed rail charitably is expected to cost maybe $60 to $70 billion. The state bond issue is $10 billion, of which only $9 billion is spent on high-speed rail. They’ve got about $3 billion of federal money, so there’s $12 billion. Where’s the other $48 billion going to come from? And the answer is, Nobody knows. BORENSTEIN: But we’re going to start building anyhow? WALTERS: They’re supposedly going to start building, b-u-u-u-u-t we’ll find out if they are, because there’s all sorts of lawsuits over it, and nobody really knows if it is going to happen or not. But also remember that that $10 billion bond issue – those bonds haven’t been issued yet, but once they’re issued to finance this thing, then the state general fund has to absorb the cost of servicing those bonds, and that’s another piece of the whole budget puzzle.

HERTZBERG: Think about this for a second. We have an emergency. If you’re a third grader and your classes get cut for the next five years, what impact does that have on your life? For that third grader, this is an emergency. “This is my life!” So [we need an emergency solution], whether it’s Governor Brown’s model in Prop. 30 – which I support; it’s temporary, it’s not long-term thinking, but it’s necessary to make sure that we’re plugging the holes in the ship. It doesn’t really fix the hole in any significant way. And the long term is to ask the fundamental question, What does California look like in 2025? How do we create a tax structure that works for the future? We’ve got to create an intelligent, long-term stream that then funds the state, that allows it to grow intelligently so we can pay for education and all the other things that are necessary for a vibrant state of California.

“THERE ARE A NUMBER OF EXPERIMENTS IN CITIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.” –MARSHALL SHAFER: If propositions 30 and 38 both fail, how bad will it be? There’s about $6 billion in trigger cuts that are ready to go, come January 1. HERTZBERG: Here’s what’s going to hap-

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Photos by Sonya Abrams

Post-Prop. 30

“THE REALITY IS SCHOOL IS JUST THE LOWHANGING FRUIT IN THE BUDGET.”– HERTZBERG pen. They’re going to do some redefining of health and welfare issues, and save about $3 billion there. First of all, there will be all the Armageddon conversation, there’ll be all the noise, all the interest groups that will say you can’t do that. The reality of the school situation is that they’re just low-hanging fruit in the budget, because so much of the other stuff is constitutionally protected. But we can lay off about $2 billion to the federal government by redefining certain numbers. The trigger’s set for January. If revenues get better [that will reduce cuts]. There will be pain, but I don’t think it’s as big as we see it. But there will be significant impacts on K-12 education. There’s no way around that. And to me it’s just not negotiable. You can’t take away three weeks out of these kids’ schools – or a week and a half – given how we are competitively right now. It’s a kid’s life, you know. So it takes us two years to fix it. OK, third and fourth grade are gone. That’s not an acceptable answer.

The Brown factor SHAFER: What about the governor? He had a reputation when he was governor the first time of being a big reformer. He talked about bringing government closer to the people; he’s doing that with prison realignment, out of necessity, really, because of the courts. Give him a grade for how he’s doing.

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MENDONCA: He’s got a single-minded focus right now in the near-term, which is Proposition 30. He is out talking about that incessantly, about the importance of new revenues for the state, what will happen if it doesn’t happen. It’s hard to have multiple messages at the same time, especially in light of all the alternative revenue measures on the ballot. So that’s what he’s doing right now. Bob said it’s an emergency, if you believe that’s important, that’s what he’s focusing on. The broader sets of things around more fundamental reform, the things that have to do with rethinking the tax structure, that have to do with how Sacramento works more fundamentally, are going to take a longer time and will happen later. HERTZBERG: He’s a one smart guy. If you really talk to him in the private moments, he’ll tell you he really has become smart about how politics really works and what you can and can’t bite off. I like a couple things [about Governor Brown]. He’s big on water, which is a huge deal in California. He’s big on high-speed rail. He’s doing the big stuff.

Of and by the people SHAFER: If the answer to California’s governance problems is to get citizens engaged, how can we make the process for policy making more accessible and “fun”? MARSHALL: There are a number of experiments in cities across the country that are trying to engage citizens in a number of different ways. They’re trying to leverage new advances in technology and the whole crowd and wiki movements to try to bring folks into the process in a much lower friction type of fashion. So you’re seeing initiatives such as ImproveSF, which is a website here in San Francisco that generates citizen support and ideas through an online platform and tries to give [the city’s residents] the tools and connect them to the appropriate people to actually solve some of those problems. The whole point is to try to enable cities to leverage some of these new technologies to try to bring people in, engage them and give them a little bit of ownership. That doesn’t solve the problem of the over-engineering of our democracy, but it

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certainly does give you the control and the ability to engage at the local level, which is what everybody ultimately is doing everyday – you’re not interacting with folks in state government every day, but you are talking to your local police officer, your local nurse – you are interacting with folks here on the ground. What [platforms like this] do is enable you access to a lot of these types of services, and that may ultimately lead into something like more of a self-service type of a model. But ultimately that’s what we really need. We don’t necessarily need folks to do things for us all the time. Sometimes we just need the answer to a question so that we can take care of it ourselves. MENDONCA: Another example: in Monterrey, Mexico, there was an effort driven by the business and civic community to enable every citizen – no matter what kind of device they had, text message, a phone, an email, calling up and saying what was going on – to post on a website every place a crime was occurring. [This was their answer to the fact that] the city couldn’t afford to put more police on the street to deal with the drug issue and was enabling citizens to say what was going on either to direct the police to a hot spot, or if there’s something going on [tell others to] stay away from it. That effort cost the civic and business community less than $50,000 to put up, less than adding one more policeman. There’s a lot of potential for these things to get citizens engaged, and they will understand very quickly that it’s in their interest. HERTZBERG: David Cameron in the United Kingdom did a similar thing – posting the location of every piece of criminal activity from their systems – and got 18 million hits in the first hour. Because it shows the disconnect between what government does and the people’s appetite for information. All of us agree that this technology is going to be a huge piece of making government more responsive and providing a better customer experience for citizens in interfacing with their government. SHAFER: I got a letter this week from the San Francisco Department of Public Works, and, I kid you not, they said my street is dirtier than it should be and they want citizens who live on the block to start taking better care of it. If we wanted, we could call the department of public works and they’d bring us a broom. [laughter]

PROP 8 AND THE COURT Olson says there’s a good chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will take the Prop. 8 case. If the court does not take the case, Prop. 8 is legally dead. Peek inside the strategy of a top legal mind.

Excerpt from “Reflecting on Prop. 8,” October 18, 2012

THEODORE B. OLSON

Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher; Former U.S. Solicitor General (2001-2004)

PAMELA KARLAN

Professor of Public Interest Law and Co-director, Supreme Court Litigation Clinic, Stanford Law School — Moderator

KARLAN: If you’re at the Supreme Court arguing this case, is there an exchange or question you particularly hope to get from one of the justices? OLSON: That’s really a good question. We prepare for every conceivable question. We prepare lists of questions, we have moot courts where we’re subjected to hostile questioning by our colleagues who really don’t cut us any slack. The idea is that by the time we get to the Supreme Court, the nastiest, most difficult question will be asked and we’ll say, Oh my god, finally I got to the Supreme Court, where it will be a little easier. If I get an opportunity to talk about what the impact is on individuals who are discriminated against and denied access to what the Supreme Court has said 14 times is a fundamental right, the Supreme Court has said is the most fundamental right, a right older than political parties, older than our country – if I could somehow have the capacity [in the Supreme Court] to convey the emotional impact of the denial of these rights, some of the justices are going to be more susceptible to that. Ruth Ginsberg fought all her life for the rights of women and the right to be treated equal. Now, I’m not predicting how anyone’s going to vote or anything like that, but the idea is that you need to convey the personal impact of this kind of discrimination. KARLAN: If the Supreme Court takes this case, is your approach in terms of the arguments you make going to be the same as it was at the district court and the Court of Appeals, or is there something distinctive about how to make arguments at the Supreme Court? OLSON: You only have half-an-hour per side in the Supreme Court. You have to condense it tremendously. Some people said, “Don’t bring it to this Supreme Court. My God, it’s a conservative Supreme Court, you’re going to lose.” There’s several answers to that. One, this Supreme Court, with an opinion by Justice Kennedy, struck down as unconstitutional a Colorado statewide initiative that withdrew rights of gay and lesbian citizens to be protected against discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. This Supreme Court overturned Bowers v. Hardwick and said that intimate acts

between individuals of the same-sex is a protected constitutional right. Number two, when’s it going to get better? Who’s going to be president when the next vacancy occurs and who’s going to be appointed? You don’t know. Three, we were representing real individuals who felt their constitutional rights were being violated. Are we supposed to tell them they should wait for a few years? For 10 years? How long? We couldn’t tell them that, not in good conscience. And finally I was influenced by reading Martin Luther King’s “Letter from a Birmingham Jail,” where he addresses the fact that black ministers were saying, “Wait, you’re going too fast, there’s going to be a backlash; slow down.” He eloquently explains that civil rights are never won by not fighting for them. You’ve got to fight for them. You may lose, but you have to keep moving forward and fighting. And of course he was right. KARLAN: To what extent is [politics] a worry, because of the official position of the Republican Party, for which you’ve served as a lawyer and a nominee to high government office? Have you faced pushback from other Republicans on this? OLSON: In front of the Supreme Court I don’t think it makes any difference. No matter if I argued it or David [Boies] argued it or we divided it up, provided that we’re all equally good lawyers and make the arguments and don’t mess up during our 30 minutes, I don’t think that will make a difference. To the extent the question is, What kind of a rough-and-tumble time am I having among Republican circles? Not so bad. Some people really make it clear they don’t like what I’m doing – betraying your principles, that sort of thing. I’m happy to be asked that question, because I like to explain that it is not a betrayal of the principals of the party of Lincoln. David Cameron, the prime minister of England, said that he is in favor of gay marriage not despite that fact that he is a conservative but because he is a conservative. Some people don’t like what I’m doing, but I’m anxious for the dialogue. I think that I can be listened to by some people who wouldn’t listen to someone else. This program was made possible by the generous support of Wells Fargo Bank.

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BIPARTISAN DONNIE FOWLER Founder and CEO, Dogpatch Strategies REILLY: Finding a way to price carbon is where we’re going to have to go. The correctness of the analysis of Cap and Trade was that it does that. Everybody [thinks there will be a price on carbon at some point]. Except Congress. Everybody expects that that is in our future, and most prudent companies are planning for that kind of consequence. I know that it’s in the pricing at ConocoPhillips when they’re looking at different investments that they make, something like a $25-per-ton carbon price is likely inevitable. INGLIS: We were talking about a revenueneutral price on carbon. If we’re going to reduce taxes somewhere else, then price carbon. Conservatives are very keen on the

Photo by Hal Bergman / istockphoto

HITCHED TO HETCH HETCHY SUSAN LEAL Former

General Manager, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission

MIKE MARSHALL Executive Director, Restore Hetch Hetchy

SPRECK ROSEKRANS Director of Policy, Restore Hetch Hetchy

JIM WUNDERMAN

CEO, Bay Area Council

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In November, voters let their voices be heard on the dam.

Excerpt from “Tear Down That Dam,” October 15, 2012

MARSHALL: Multiple studies over the years have demonstrated that San Francisco can get its water from the Tuolumne River and still generate power along that river but store its water supply elsewhere without harm being done to it. The problem is San Francisco [government] has not been a part of those conversations. They, for all intents and purposes, boycotted those studies, so we put Proposition F on the ballot to accomplish the goal of restoring Hetch Hetchy. You can’t consolidate 9 reservoirs to 8 without first making reforms to the system. In San Francisco we don’t recycle a drop of water, and we pretty much treat our rainwater as sewage. So we have linked reforming the water system and guaranteeing our future water security by building up our local water resources with some

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environmental benefits, which would be the restoration of Hetch Hetchy Valley; improving flows on the Tuolumne River, where the salmon population has all but disappeared; and reducing polluted storm water runoff into the bay. WUNDERMAN: Prop. F is really a very dangerous thing for San Francisico and a large part of the Bay Region. It’s been an extremely misleading attempt on the voters of San Francisco. I attended the opening of your event when you unfurled this banner that talks about water recycling; you talk a lot about that and about water conservation when in fact we’re all for those kinds of things. The Bay Area Council, a business association which has worked on those kinds of water issues for a long time, could certainly stand with you on water recycling – which is something the PUC has been doing, maybe not as soon as we’d like, but certainly doing – and water conservation.

POWER

Is there room for cross-aisle cooperation on climate change policy?

Excerpt from “Energy and the Election,” October 9, 2012

BOB INGLIS Former Republican

U.S. Representative, South Carolina

BILL REILLY Former Administrator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

TOM STEYER Managing Partner, Farallon Capital

idea that we’re not going to grow government here. But if you want to do what Tom [Steyer] was talking about, which is just bedrock conservatism, this is really a deliverable that conservatives must make, which is that we’re the people who generally say to the progressives, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” We need to be the ones who deliver this news that we’re already paying the full cost of coal-fired electricity. It’s just that you don’t pay at the meter. Let’s pay at the meter, and then you can have transparency, free enterprise can deliver the solution, especially if we can do it in a way that doesn’t grow the government. So we either return the money in the form of dividends to the population,

or reduce taxes elsewhere. Then conservatives would say, “Yep, that’s a tune I know.” STEYER: I’ve been listening to people talk on this topic and the progress we’re making, whether it’s technological progress or policy progress. Over the last 10 years we’ve been making incremental progress on both scores. The question I’ve been asking is how long do we have before the climate issues move into a place where they become interactive, nonlinear and beyond our pulling back? That’s generally described in the literature as 2 degrees celsius. So when you look at the trajectory we’re on to get to 2 degrees celsius, it really brings into question a lot of the conversations we’re having in terms of timeframe in terms of whether we will

be able to move fast enough so we don’t get there. Because on the trajectory we’re on, it looks to me to be relatively soon. FOWLER: From a public opinion point of view, there’s two things to consider [about fracking]. Fracking is a local issue. Most people don’t have the threat of having a natural gas well that could leak in their back yard. Natural gas generally is as popular with the American people as solar and wind. Coal, oil and nuclear are not as popular. Talking about policy: Fracking’s a local issue. Most people go, “They’re fracking somebody else’s backyard. That little blue light seems clean, it’s cheap, I’m OK with it.” So natural gas has a real advantage with the policy sector and with the American people.

But this is not about that. This is about restoring Hetch Hetchy. It’s about draining Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, which supplies between 85 to almost 100 percent of the water that [comes] out of our tap. ROSEKRANS: When we’ve looked at restoration projects that have successfully taken place in the state, communities have been able to adapt; they’ve stored water in ground water banks; they’ve recycled water; they’ve done all kinds of things to ensure that water supply reliability that is fundamental for our farms and cities. They’ve been able to do that to the tune of much greater volumes than what we’re talking about here. LEAL: [Marshall] said the city has boycotted this [discussion]. When I was general manager [of the SFPUC], we had dozens of our engineers having to go up to Sacramento for months for the Department of Water Resources study. For months our people were distracted, going to discuss our system with them. We reach out to property owners. The utility provides incentives for low-flow fixtures. San Francisco conserves water. We are about one third of the state

average in the amount of water we use, and yes, we do recycle. In 2004, our system recycled water so that the golf courses between San Francisco and Daily City border uses recycled water. MARSHALL: Residents will reduce water consumption by about 10 million gallons a day. But what does SFPUC want to do with that water? Do they want to leave it

in the natural environment? No. They want to sell it at cost to Silicon Valley, because they’re projecting more water needs in the future. So the incentive for us to conserve is completely eliminated relative to our environmental sensibilities. Prop. F is not just designed about coming up with a plan, but it’s ultimately designed to change the way we as a city think about water.

Left: The Hetch Hetchy Valley in 1908, before the construction of the contentious dam that flooded the valley; Right: The Hetch Hetchy Reservior in 2006. Photos by Isaiah West Taber & Samuel Wong / wikimedia commons D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013 THE COMMO N WE AL TH 19

: P U E L K C BU E GREAT ECONO TH

Policymakers, investors and workers are all grappling with the erosion of the economic infrastructure that has guided much of mankind for half a century. What’s next? Excerpt from “The Great Turbulence: Economics and the New Global Order,” September 6, 2012. PAUL SAFFO Managing Director of Foresight, Discern Analytics MATT RICHTEL Pulitzer Prize-winning Technology Reporter, The New York Times; Author, Our Brain on Computers – Moderator

n addition to being brilliant, [Alan Greenspan] was the luckiest economist who ever lived. His tenure from 1987 to 2006 is also a perfect overlap with a sunny economic period characterized by modest business cycles. The period even has a name. It’s [called] the Great Moderation, a term conferred on it in 2002 by James Stock. The Great Moderation amounted to an overall decline in volatility: a relatively modest GDP; modest, predictable interest rates; stable employment; and more or less steady industrial production. In essence, it was a period of mostly modest business cycles and low inflation. The problem was that as it went on for so long, all the moderation lulled everyone into complacency. Companies lowered their reserves [thinking] we don’t really need all that extra cash; they increased their debt levels [thinking] we want to build some other stuff or maybe buy a new jet; and even economists were lulled into wishful thinking. In 2003, Bob Lucas, in the presidential

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address at the American Economic Association speculated that, “The central problem of depression prevention has been solved for all practical purposes.” and even James Stock wondered if the Great Moderation might mark the end of business cycles. Talk about standing on a mountaintop in the middle of a lightning storm with your hand in the air. Well, we know the answer to their speculation. In November 2008 the Great Moderation came to an abrupt and dramatic end. It’s now a fading memory and the question of what next? still hangs in our minds. Is it yet greater collapse? Is it economic nirvana? A new sunny upland, or perhaps vast disaster? I think the way that question is framed makes the answer elusive, because actually something quite different is afoot. It’s neither a matter of up nor down, but a fundamental state change in the economy to a new kind of volatility we have not seen before – or at least not seen in a very long time. The history of the great Moderation and how it came about offers a hint of the

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shape and challenge of what lies ahead. The roots of the Great Moderation go back to 1944 and the Bretton Woods conference, a moment when war-weary great powers were determined to not repeat the mistakes made at the end of World War I and, also, public servants like Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes were determined to architect a system for a lasting peace by removing and refining those economic factors that might otherwise contribute to the possibility of future war. The result is the institutional order that shaped the last 50 years. Institutions like the World Bank, the IMF and NATO all emerged from the Bretton Woods process. For example, it is no coincidence that the foundational institution of the European community was the European Coal and Steel Community, designed not just to make more steel or dig more coal, but [also] to make available and avoid the competition for those essential war materials that shaped the first and second world wars. All of the institutions to come out of the

E C N E L U B R U T C OMI milieu of the Great Moderation were not just economic. They were more than just financial. We had entities like NATO and, of course, the United Nations. Thus at its core, the Great Moderation can be defined as a period of strong institutions acting as shock absorbers capable of pulling events back when things get weird in the financial markets, and in that sense it was truly a Keynesian triumph. The result was a multidecade period of basically clear weather, punctuated by the occasional storm, in contrast to today, which is mainly a period of stormy weather with an occasional clearing in the clouds. However, the problem was that the Great Moderation itself was laying the foundation of its own end. Two forces in particular stand out as we look back at history. Shocked by the inflationary effects of the 1970s oil crisis, policymakers directed their attention to a new concern: inflation. Employment, the preoccupation of Bretton Woods, took a back seat. This was a perfect reversal of worldview away from worrying about employment to worrying about inflation. In the search for a cure to inflation, world leaders began leaning away from the notion of government interventions and toward the lure and prospect of self-managing markets. Beginning in the early 1980s, specifically with Thatcher coming into office in 1979, Reagan coming into office in 1981, the Bretton Woods worldview of managed global capitalism was abandoned in favor of

what eventually would be called the Washington Consensus – so named in 1989 by John Williamson. Initially created to help developing nations in crisis, it eventually morphed into a broad shift encompassing an almost religious belief in efficient, selfregulating markets. The policy changes that followed were things like deregulation, free trade, floating exchange rates and privatization. They all greatly diminished the power

“War-weary great powers were determined to

not repeat the mistakes made at the end of World War I.” of the Bretton Woods institutions. The institutional shock absorbers that helped hold the center were thus quietly hobbled and incapable of rapid response. But this shift was only half the story. The second factor was technology, and [a sign of it lies] hidden in that moment in 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell, [symbolizing] the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of globalization. Not coincidentally, in the same year a memo written by an English boffin on the Swiss-French border in March 1989 described the original plan for the world wide

web. That was written by Tim Berners-Lee. I would argue that that second factor is embodied in Tim Berners-Lee’s memo; the second factor eroding the Great Moderation was information technology. Here in Silicon Valley, we take info tech for granted. How many revolutions can there be every year? Someone once asked John Sculley [this] at Apple, and he said, Well, how many weeks are there in a year? We have cuddly little revolutions happening all the time. This stuff [in the late 20th century] was truly revolutionary. The arms race didn’t end the Soviet Union; it was the information revolution that helped usher in the collapse, in the form of samizdat videos in Poland, photocopiers churning out smuggled texts in Czechoslovakia, and eventually cell phones and email in Russia itself. When we look back on 1989 a century from now, I am quite certain that Tim Berners-Lee’s memo will be remembered as the most momentous event in that very momentous year, leading as it did to the dotcom revolution, social media and surprise after surprise, with more waiting out on the horizon. As we entered the 1990s, thanks to the digital revolution the predicable world of the Great Moderation was becoming steadily more connected and a more complex place, as the predictable world of the Cold War yielded to a new multipolar world. Behind all of that excitement and wealth and innovation, though, there were digital termites in the global framework silently working

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Photo courtesy of Paul Saffo

“The Great Moderation is being replaced by the

Great Turbulence. The new order is neither up nor down. We will have both.” away. To be blunt, digital technology is the solvent that is leeching the glue out of the global institutional order and beneath the sunny climate and the wealth of three decades of the Great Moderation, power was fleeing from center to periphery. Consider the example of the G20, or whatever number it is today. With all that complexity, the institutional shock absorbers started losing their power, and not just in the financial space. Think of the first Gulf War, August 2nd, 1990; the only reason Saddam invaded Kuwait was that the Soviet Union was no longer around to stop him. [Civil wars were fought in] Bosnia, Somalia, [and amidst the] complexity everywhere, suddenly non-state actors, terrorists, capable of wildly disproportionate, asymmetrical power and effect were afoot. Of course for the United States, these harbingers of vast change were all storms in other men’s worlds, easy to ignore – until, of course, 9/11…Afghanistan…Iraq. We

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had a brief moment of economic insecurity and doubt and uncertainty, but then the sunny economic news continued and we were all lulled into complacency again. But even in 2003 as Bob Lucas speculated about the end of business cycles, it was clear that something much deeper was afoot. Then in November 2008, it all became quite clear: cycles still existed and now pessimism is the new – and oh-so-fashionable – black. What lies ahead? Depression? Recovery? A new boom? None of these things. The Great Moderation is being replaced by the Great Turbulence. The new order is neither up nor down. We will have both. Rather it is a shift to a world characterized by events that are high amplitude and short cycle. Like the flash crash on May 6, 2010: You wake up, the market drops 998 points – 9 percent – and then recovers in minutes, followed by a record 1000-point-plus swing; $1 trillion disappears in nanoseconds, then like the Cheshire Cat reappears minutes later. How strange! Once upon a time, crashes and recoveries took months or years to resolve themselves. Now they do so in hours or even minutes. It could happen between sips of a single Starbucks latte. This is the new normal, the new normal of high amplitudes and shorter cycles. The shift from the Great Moderation to the Great Turbulence is thus a shift from that sunny period with an occasional storm to a stormy period with breaks of clear weather in between. It’s not crash or boom; the new normal is volatility – mind-bending, unnerving volatility. It doesn’t mean you lose your money – in fact, new fortunes will be made in all of this uncertainty – but it is not for the weak of heart. Weakened as they are, the Bretton Woods institutions have been unable to keep up with this change. Like the guns on the Maginot Line, they are now aimed in the wrong direction and arguably do not have the power to stop events as they begin to swing out of the norm. New institutions are replacing the old institutions as new centrifugal forces become dominant and the center-seeking forces get ever weaker. [The world is full of new] institutions like Google, Zynga, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Wikipedia. Now, this is a moment when changes in the global economy are as vast as they were in that Bretton Woods moment after World War II. Everything, absolutely

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everything, is up for grabs, and the implications are equally vast. There’s something very odd afoot about the current struggling recovery – it’s jobless. This jobs drop is deeper and longer than we have seen in any prior recession. It’s not really a surprise at all. The cause is automation, which is productivity spelled sideways. Automation is not new; it’s been around for some time. We have been replacing workers on the assembly line for decades. Our assembly lines at places like General Motors are places where there not only are workers, but it wouldn’t be safe for a worker to work in the presence of the robots. The change has been happening for a while, and now it’s going exponential and not just in manufacturing. When’s the last time you spoke to a telephone operator? When’s the last time you got cash from a human teller, or had an airline agent actually hand you a ticket? Productivity is jobless innovation, and it hasn’t hurt much now because there’s an old axiom: Yeah, we lose the old jobs, but we create a net number of more new jobs than we lost and the only challenge is retraining people for the new jobs – not something we do terribly well. But what’s changed is that the new jobs may not be coming on faster than the old jobs disappear. In fact, I would argue, the question of losing jobs to automation is not the problem and it’s not even the issue. The real job problem, the real issue behind this jobless recovery, is not that the old jobs are being lost – the new jobs are never created to begin with. I was at Facebook two days before their public offering, and one of their corporate officers proudly reminded me that they were $3.8 billion in 2011 revenues – $1 billion net – they had 926 million active users – about 1.3 billion total users – adding 500 million logons every day, and, most interestingly, he said, [they’re] a 3,500-person company. Not a bad ratio. But, in fact, if you think about it, Facebook is not a company. It’s a machine. It’s a machine in which programmers walk around and make sure the power plugs don’t fall out from the wall. The jobs were never created to begin with. It’s just a big machine. So meanwhile, what we’ve done with electrons in the last five decades is now moving to atoms. And the turbulence to come is breathtaking. Consider that 70 years ago at the moment of the Bretton Woods conference, it

was a world in which workers were cheap, labor was cheap and machines were expensive. Today we live in a world that’s exactly the opposite: Workers are horrendously expensive and machines are sometimes cheap to the point of being free. This will ripple through the economy in ways that are not good for traditional jobs. Foxconn, the world’s largest component manufacturer, employs over 1.2 million workers. They are aggressively robotizing their manufacturing lines. Their goal is to have 1 million robots on their lines before 2015. I guarantee you that it will be well before 2020 when Foxconn has many, many more robots than it has workers. So thanks to algorithms and robots and 3D printing, we’re entering an era in which ... there will be ever less role for human workers in the process of assembling stuff. A key issue of the next 20 years will be the central vexing problem of cyber-structural unemployment. This is not a return to 1970s worries of inflation, but to 1940s Bretton Woods [worries] about jobs. And a very special kind of worry. I think the greatest social challenge of the Great Turbulence will be figuring out what replaces the notion of job, of paid work as the central nexus of income, health care and meaning in our society. If jobs disappear, what replaces them? The optimist within me remembers that in the 1960s, Daniel Bell and other sociologists talked at length [about how] automation was going to make us all unemployed by usurping our jobs and the result would be the coming leisure

society in which the biggest challenge would be figuring out what to do with all our spare time. I can’t wait! I’m afraid, however, that the concentration of power implicit in this new order will make that highly unlikely. Where does the new power reside in this era of turbulence? What specifically is the foundation of national power? The Cold War world of the Great Moderation was defined by institutions, treaties and a few great powers. In contrast, this new era of the Great Turbulence is a world defined by power nodes, feedback loops and more players than we can possibly count. Size alone is not a factor for success and in fact may make things more difficult. Behind the Great Turbulence is a world struggling to deal with the consequences of globalization and an unending, accelerating digital revolution. Today the future looks as protean as the future must have looked to John Maynard Keynes and others at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944. Everywhere we turn individuals, institutions and entire societies are struggling to adjust; from the demonstrators at the Seattle summit to mullahs fighting modernism, to demonstrators in Tahrir Square hoping for a new future. Everybody is trying to make sense of what lies ahead and where they fit. A key question to answer is, What can we do? Amidst all this turmoil, are institutions up to the task of addressing our most serious challenges like climate change embodied in the Keeling curve of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Are we able to create new global

policy architectures despite the multitude of voices and opinions? Well, my fear is very simple. Governments lack the will and the power to do it, companies lack the conscience to do it, and markets – last time I checked – are neither wise nor free. So we need new kinds of institutions, and one of the great uncertainties is whether we will see a new third or fourth kind of institution emerge. Sixty-eight years ago Bretton Woods was convened in part as a response to half a century of industrial revolution. Now we’re dealing with the consequences of half a century of the information revolution, and it is still accelerating and there is no end in sight. I am quite certain that we are on the verge of another Bretton Woods moment when chastened global leaders will finally commit to building a new institutional architecture. However, I fear that it will take at least one more serious global crisis before the collective will to do so is found. Everyone in this room has benefited from the architecture created half a century ago at Bretton Woods. Now we desperately need a new architecture and our leaders are letting us down. If we don’t get that new architecture, I fear that the first half of this coming century will resemble in many unwelcome ways the unpleasant and unhappy first half of the 20th century. Faced with this challenge, will we have the vision like the vision the architects at Bretton Woods had half a century ago? Will the leaders we elect

Putting Saffo’s Powers of Prognostication to the Test There’s no way, except waiting, to know whether Paul Saffo’s predictions will come true. But we can guess as Saffo might guess – we can examine the past. Saffo has been forecasting for over 20 years. Some of his early predictions concern what is now the present, even the past. In 1991, Saffo declared the personal computer dead. Instead it turns out it was really about to leave childhood behind. But in the same New York Times article Saffo predicted that “In a few years, we will carry all kinds of information appliances in our pockets, purses, briefcases and cars.” This prediction turned out to be more accurate. “We all” (46 percent of American adults, according to Pew Internet & American Life) carry smartphones, and many of us also carry tablets and e-readers. As these devices dupli-

cate more of the PC’s components with every new model, Saffo’s first prediction may eventually come true as well. If we apply this model to an analogous current prediction, we could guess that the Bretton Woods institutions that Saffo has declared effectively dead might be, like the PC in 1991, going through an awkward puberty stage, and will live many more years in a more advanced form and, perhaps, before becoming obsolete, will even establish the specific components that the institutions of the future will have already begun to recreate. Of course these two situations are probably not much more than rhetorically parallel, but they do suggest a pattern in Saffo’s predictions. And Saffo would tell you that in the forecasting business, patterns are worth looking at. By Amelia Cass

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take it seriously? Can we build new global institutions for the 21st century? For the sake of our children and our grandchildren let us hope and make it so.

Question and answer session with Matt Richtel, Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times technology reporter RICHTEL: Tell us a little bit about whether this [presidential] election matters. SAFFO: It matters, but there’s a deeper underlying problem with our political system. It’s unfair to blame the politicians, and it’s also unfair to blame the voters. The problem with our republican system here in the United States was that our whole system was architected in a period of really lousy communications, and so the founding fathers went out of their way to create a system with feedback so that word could get from the outside to the center and back out. Remember, this was a world [in which] the most famous battle of our war against Britain was the battle of New Orleans, fought a week after the treaty was signed. So we have a system that goes out of its way to build in feedback loops, and the consequence, in my opinion, over the last 200 years is that with each successive advance in communications technology our government has gotten that much worse. RICHTEL: Is this a depressing message you’re sending? Is that your view? SAFFO: No. It’s a depressing message only if we’re attached to the old order. Change is a wonderful thing. Take a very narrow investor view: if the stock market never changed, there would be no opportunity for profit. If you can surf uncertainty, this is a very exciting time. I’m fundamentally an optimist. And history, by the way, is alone a good basis for optimism. In general, over the flow of human history things have generally gotten better. We may blow ourselves up yet, but I’m not with the apocalypse crowd. RICHTEL: What are the attenuators to volatility? What [institutions] might we build? SAFFO: We have to think about new kinds of institutions, and the place where I’m most optimistic is the NGO [non-governmental organization] sector. Entities in the NGO sector have shown remarkable abilities to be nimble and creative and also not outlive their usefulness. One example [they could address]: A big part of our crisis today in

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politics is that our system has gotten so complex that ordinary citizens can no longer see the link between the taxes they pay and the benefits they get. Imagine an NGO dedicated to the very simple task of finding a way of showing people how they can trace every last cent of their taxes to benefits and then maybe we wouldn’t have people like the guy in Florida holding up a sign saying, “U.S. Government keep your hands off my Medicare.” [laughter]

“I fear the first half of this century will resemble in

many unwelcome ways the first half of the 20th century.” RICHTEL: How does this volatility [relate to] the growing world population? How does that fit in with the turbulence? SAFFO: There has been an exponential curve of population growth and plenty of uncertainty around population growth. But one thing we do know is when there are periods of high social uncertainty, there tend to be population drops. Russia is going through the consequences of a population drop during all the chaos after the fall of the Berlin Wall. When people don’t feel secure and they don’t have manufacturing jobs, they’re going to do things like defer marriage. You see that in countries where kids are still living at home. Or go to Spain right now, and you’ll see Spanish youth are fleeing Spain. That causes a population drop. Increases in wealth like what we’ve seen with the middle class in China also cause people to have less kids. It’s possible that global population will peak around 2050 and then start to drop, and we’ll be in the very unfamiliar territory of how to deal with a decreasing population. In some places it’s going to happen faster; China’s economic problem today is [whether it] can get rich before it gets old, and it starts getting old around 2020. RICHTEL: How will we deal with the population drop? SAFFO: The good news is that population will level off and drop, hopefully; we certain-

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ly won’t get to the kind of doublings we’ve had in the past. The problem is it still doesn’t solve a lot of problems. We’re still too many people consuming too much stuff to really solve the climate problem. Beyond that it really is unknown territory. As a forecaster, I look for things that are surprising and unexpected and I think a lot about cycles – that things tend to repeat, what looks like it’s new just hasn’t happened lately. But sometime in the last two years we experienced a truly new event that was hardly noticed: Humankind became, for the first time ever, a majority urban species. That fact alone is going to have more of an impact on shaping the next century than just about anything in the demographic space. What can we do in the meantime? Those of us in the San Francisco Bay Area have a special role to play. If we are to make sense of this new global landscape, we need a new kind of global economic observatory, an observatory that is impartial and capable of collecting and digesting the vast oceans of data needed to truly understand the global economy in all of its complexity. In theory that’s what the IMF, OECD and World Bank already do; in fact, what they collect is too narrow, and they publish too slowly for it to make a difference. Instead, imagine an institution with the velocity and analytic resources of Wall Street, the reach of Google and the openness of Wikipedia. It would be an institution that would leverage cyberspace and the lessons of the last decade of social and technological innovation to costeffectively become a global clearinghouse for information. Its scope would extend far beyond the data collected by established entities today; perhaps go deep into the illicit economy, which in some nations is larger than the aboveground economy, and it could quantify the off-book measures, so often ignored, that end up being so important to policy decision makers. Above all, this observatory would be open and independent, inviting the participation of crowds and encouraging the broadest possible research access in its data, to the service of rethinking our global economic architecture. Will we build it? I have no idea. I certainly wish we will. This program was made possible by the generous support of Bank of the West.

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INFORUM is for and by people in their 20s to mid-30s, though events are open to people of all ages.

Hear Club programs on about 200 public and commercial radio stations throughout the United States. For the latest schedule, visit commonwealthclub.org/broadcast. In the San Francisco Bay Area, tune in to: KQED (88.5 FM) Fridays at 8 p.m. and Saturdays at 2 a.m. KRCB Radio (91 FM in Rohnert Park) Thursdays at 7 p.m. KALW (91.7 FM) Inforum programs on select Tuesdays at 7 p.m. KOIT (96.5 FM and 1260 AM) Sundays at 6 a.m. KLIV (1590 AM) Thursdays at 7 p.m. KSAN (107.7 FM) Sundays at 5 a.m. KNBR (680 and 1050 AM) Sundays at 5 a.m. KFOG (104.5 and 97.7 FM) Sundays at 5 a.m.

MEMBER–LED FORUMS (MLF) Volunteer-driven programs focus on particular fields. Most evening programs include a wine networking reception. MEMBER-LED FORUMS CHAIR Dr. Carol Fleming carol.fleming@speechtraining com FORUM CHAIRS ARTS Anne W. Smith asmith@ggu.edu Lynn Curtis lynnwcurtis@comcast.net ASIA–PACIFIC AFFAIRS Cynthia Miyashita cmiyashita@hotmail.com BAY GOURMET Cathy Curtis ccurtis873@gmail SF BOOK DISCUSSION Howard Crane cranehow@aol.com BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Kevin O’Malley kevin@techtalkstudio.com ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES Ann Clark cbofcb@sbcglobal.net Marcia Sitcoske msitcosk@yahoo.com GROWNUPS John Milford Johnwmilford@gmail.com

HEALTH & MEDICINE William B. Grant wbgrant@infionline.net HUMANITIES George C. Hammond george@pythpress.com INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Norma Walden norwalden@aol.com LGBT Stephen Seewer stephenseewer@gmail.com

Watch Club programs on KRCB TV 22 on Comcast & DirecTV the last Sunday of each month at 11 a.m. Select Commonwealth Club Silicon Valley programs air on CreaTV in San Jose (Channel 30). View hundreds of streaming videos of Club programs at fora.tv and youtube.com/commonwealthclub

Julian Chang julianclchang@gmail.com MIDDLE EAST Celia Menczel celiamenczel@sbcglobal.net

Subscribe to our free podcasting service to automatically download a new program recording to your personal computer each week: commonwealthclub.org/podcast.

PSYCHOLOGY Patrick O’Reilly oreillyphd@hotmail.com

HARD OF HEARING?

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Chisako Ress chisakoress@gmail.com

To request an assistive listening device, please e-mail Ricardo Esway at resway@commonwealthclub.org or call (415) 869-5911 seven working days before the event. D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Eight Weeks Calendar December 03 – January 27 M on

Tue

Wed

December 03

5:30 p.m. SF Book Discussion: Before the Dawn FE 6:00 p.m. Grandmother Power FM 6:00 p.m. Show Me The Funny! 6:30 p.m. Beans to Bars

6:30 p.m. Stephen Schneider Climate Science Communication Award

6:00 p.m. Simon Winchester: Skulls

5:30 p.m. Middle East Discussion Group FE 6:00p.m. Ethical Destinations: Vote with Your Wings FM 6:00p.m. End of the World Doom FM

6:30 p.m. Will Durst: Elect to Laugh 6:00p.m. Commonwealth Club Book Launch: The Real Problem Solvers FM

6:30 p.m. Joanne Weir: Hot Out of the Oven

5:30 p.m. Donald Berwick: A Bright Future for Health Care: Is It Possible?

Club offices closed

January 01

Christmas

Christmas Eve

New Year’s Day

Club offices closed

January 02

Club offices closed

5:15 p.m. Trauma and First Responders FM

Noon Gary Bukovnik: Exploring the Palate

5:30 p.m. Public Trust and Public Land FM

6:30 p.m. A Blueprint for Growth in Contra Costa County

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

6:30 p.m. John Mackey: A Whole-istic Approach to Capitalism

7:00 p.m. John Mackey 5:15 p.m. Follow the Open Doors 5:30 p.m. Book Disc.: A Pepys Anthology FE 6:30 p.m. Theater in the East Bay

D EC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

Commonwealth Club Travel

June26 o 16 t 13 20

Bali and Flores Adventure and Luxury on the Islands of Indonesia Highlights: • Experience Bali with leaders who have spent years developing relationships with Balinese royalty, government officials, artists and musicians. • Luxuriate in our 5-star resort in Ubud, the cultural capital of Bali. • Meet with the royal princes at their palace, and speak with members of a cultural arts cooperative.

• Spend the day with a master mask carver and his family; learn about the gamelan, the traditional Balinese instrument; experience magical dance performances; and tour the Green School which focuses on sustainable practices. • Visit a banjar, a fascinating self-governing community, and learn about the subak system of water allocation, a potential model for countries around the world.

• Learn about Bali’s history, unique mix of religions, textile and spice trades, as well as their economy and political challenges. • Fly to the island of Flores and discover beautiful coastlines, volcanic lakes, and Kelimutu National Park. • Learn about dye-plant harvesting, ikat work, and weaving. • Marvel at the colorful underwater life during snorkeling at Maumere Bay.

Day 4 | Wednesday, June 19th Ubud & Denpasar Visit Denpasar, the island’s capital, to be briefed by U.S. Consulate offiDay 1 | Sunday, June 16 cials on the state on the state of U.S.Arrive Bali Indonesian relations. After lunch Fly to Denpasar airport and enjoy a free afternoon, or visit with transfer to our luxurious accom- Cokorda Rai, Bali’s leading tradimodations in Ubud for dinner tional healer to observe and learn and overnight. about his techniques, and have a ARMA Resort (D) session with him if you choose. Later in the day meet the Royal Princes Day 2 | Monday, June 17th of Ubud in their Palace. Ubud ARMA Resort (B,L) After an orientation, take a walking tour of Ubud followed by a Day 5 | Thursday, June 20th Balinese meal at Threads of Life, Ubud a non-governmental organization Early mornings in Bali are magiworking with weavers in Bali, cal. In the company of Agung Rai, Flores, and other nearby islands. the founder of the ARMA museEnjoy a fascinating lecture by co- um and resort, half the group will founder William Ingram, about explore the early morning Balinese the history and politics of the tex- landscape and village life. The othtile and spice trades in Bali and er half of the group will have the Flores during the colonial period. opportunity to shop for Balinese After dinner at our hotel, enjoy an silver, textiles, woven baskets and open-air performance of Balinese paintings. In the afternoon, visit dancing and music. The Green School, arguably the ARMA Resort (B,L,D) world’s greenest school which uses sustainable materials and teaches Day 3 | Tuesday, June 18th sustainable practices. His schedUbud ule permitting, meet the school’s Visit the family compound of founder, John Hardy, who has givAnom, the renowned 9th gen- en a TED talk about the school. eration mask maker for a private ARMA Resort (B,D) demonstration of sacred mask carving and a discussion of the Day 6 | Friday, June 21st role of wood and stone carving in Ubud Balinese culture. We will then join The two groups’ activities from the family for a traditional lunch, the previous morning are switchprepared by Anom’s wife Noneek. ed. The afternoon and evening Learn about the gamelan, the tra- will be free to explore independitional Balinese musical instru- dently, relax, swim or to visit a ment. Dinner is on your own to local banjar to learn how these explore Ubud, a very safe town local communities organize and with many excellent options. govern themselves. ARMA Resort (B,L) ARMA Resort (B,L)

Itinerary:

Trip Leaders: Wilford Welch Former U.S. dip-

lomat who played a role in the re-establishment of U.S. China relations in the early 1970’s, and who wrote a prescient Harvard Business Review article in the mid 1970’s entitled “The Business Potential of Southeast Asia”. Author, The Tactics of Hope, How Social Entrepreneurs are Changing Our World; CoFounder, Quest for Global Healing conferences tht took place in Bali in 2004 and 2006.

Carole Angermeir Founder of

Cross Cultural Journeys (CCJ), in 1991, and founder of the CCJ Foundation in 1997; Co-Founder of the Quest for Global Healing conferences in Bali that included over a thousand participants from 40 countries, including Desmond Tutu and two other Nobel Peace Prize laureates.

For additional information or to make a reservation, contact Commonwealth Club Travel Online: commonwealthclub.org/travel

Telephone: (415) 597-6720

Email: Travel@commonwealthclub.org

Day 7 | Saturday, June 22nd Flores This morning we take a 90 minute flight to Maumere, Flores, accompanied by William Ingram. Following lunch we are briefed on the history, culture, politics and economics of the island. The rest of the day will be open for exploring the town, hiking, or swimming in the beautiful bay in front of our hotel. Seaworld Club (B,L,D) Day 8 | Sunday, June 23rd Flores Visit Bliran Sina Cultural Arts Cooperative of Watublapi, established in 1988 to rediscover, sustain, and develop regional art and culture. Their success is based on the sale of their authentic naturaldyed textiles, and their worldclass dance and music performances, which we are privileged to experience. After lunch at the cooperative, spend the afternoon with co-op members to join in their dye plant harvesting, natural-dye preparation, ikat work, and weaving. Seaworld Club (B,L,D)

Day 9 | Monday, June 24th Flores A scenic 3 1â &#x201E;2 hour drive to Kelimutu National Park and its tricolored lakes, winds through spectacular mountain and coastal scenery, offering a vivid slice of Flores life. Take a half-hour hike up to the volcanic lakes where we enjoy a picnic lunch and spectacular views. Seaworld Club (B,L,D) Day 10 | Tuesday, June 25th Flores We travel to the islands, beaches, and world-class snorkeling sites around Maumere Bay, an area where over 1,200 species of fish have been catalogued. Snorkel, swim, or beach comb. Back at the hotel enjoy a celebratory farewell dinner. Seaworld Club (B,L,D) Day 11 | Wednesday, June 26th Flores to Denpasar Airport This morning fly back to Baliâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Denpasar airport and connect with returning flights home. Or extend your stay in Bali on your own. (B)

CST: 2096889-40 Photos: cover: sculpture by Erik K Veland / Flickr, fish courtesy sea-world-club.com, rice paddy by wYnand! / Flickr; inside: bike by Pondspider / Flickr, baskets by Zenubud / Flickr, volcano by whl.travel / Flickr, girls by Pandu Adnyana / Flickr

Trip Details: Dates: June 16 - 26, 2013 (11 days)

Group Size: Pricing is based on a minimum of 10 participants and a maximum of 20.

Cost:

$5,850 double occupancy; $6,500 single occupancy (villa upgrades available)

Included:

All activities and entrance fees as specified in the brochure; guest speakers; in-country transportation per itinerary; accommodations as specified; meals (B,L,D) per itinerary; bottled water; beer and wine at the welcome and final dinners; tour leaders; Commonwealth Club host with 12 or more participants; local guides and experts; gratuities to local guides, drivers and for all group activities; pre-departure materials.

Not included: International air; Indonesian visa of $25 upon arrival; departure tax of $20; alcoholic beverages except at welcome and farewell dinner; travel insurance (recommended, information will be sent upon registration); items of a purely personal nature.

Bali and Flores June 16 – 26, 2013

Commonwealth Club Travel Phone: (415) 597-6720 Fax: (415) 597-6729

Reservation Form NAME 1 NAME 2 ADDRESS

CITY/STATE/ZIP

HOME PHONE

CELL

E-MAIL ADDRESS

SINGLE TRAVELERS ONLY: If this is a reservation for one person, please indicate: ___ I plan to share accommodations with _____________________________________ OR ___ I wish to have single accommodations. OR ___ I’d like to know about possible roommates. I am a ___ smoker / ___ nonsmoker. PAYMENT: Here is my deposit of $______ ($750 per person) for ___ place(s). ___ Enclosed is my check (make payable to Cross Cultural Journeys). OR ___ Charge my deposit to my ___ Visa ___ MasterCard CARD#

EXPIRES

AUTHORIZED CARDHOLDER SIGNATURE DATE

Mail completed form to: Commonwealth Club Travel, 595 Market St., 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, or fax to (415) 597-6729. For questions or to reserve by phone call (415) 597-6720. ___ I/We have read the Terms and Conditions for this program and agree to them. SIGNATURE

TERMS & CONDITIONS The Commonwealth Club (CWC) has contracted Cross Cultural Journeys (CCJ), to organize this tour. Reservations: A $750 per person deposit, along with a completed and signed Reservation Form, will reserve a place for participants on this program. The balance of the trip is due 90 days prior to departure. Cancellation and Refund Policy: Notification of cancellation must be received in writing. At the time we receive your written cancellation, the following penalties will apply: • 120 days or more prior to departure: $250 per person • 90-60 days to departure: $750 deposit • 59-1 days prior to departure: 100% fare Tour can also be cancelled due to low enrollment. Neither CWC nor CCJ accepts liability for cancellation penalties related to domestic or international airline tickets purchased in conjunction with the tour. Trip Cancellation and Interruption Insurance: We strongly advise that all travelers purchase trip cancellation and interruption insurance as coverage against a covered unforeseen emergency that may force you to cancel or leave

trip while it is in progress. A brochure describing coverage will be sent to you upon receipt of your reservation. Medical Information: Participation in this program requires that you be in generally good health. It is essential that persons with any medical problems and related dietary restrictions make them known to us well before departure. Itinerary Changes & Trip Delay: Itinerary is based on information available at the time of printing and are subject to change. We reserve the right to change a program’s dates, staff, itineraries, or accommodations as conditions warrant. If a trip must be delayed, or the itinerary changed, due to bad weather, road conditions, transportation delays, airline schedules, government intervention, sickness or other contingency for which CWC or CCJ or its agents cannot make provision, the cost of delays or changes is not included. 12. Limitations of Liability: CWC and CCJ its Owners, Agents, and Employees act only as the agent for any transportation carrier, hotel, ground operator, or other suppliers of services connected with this program (“other providers”), and the other providers are solely responsible and liable for providing their respective services. CWC and CCJ shall not be held liable for (A) any damage to, or loss of, property or injury to, or death of,

persons occasioned directly or indirectly by an act or omission of any other provider, including but not limited to any defect in any aircraft, or vehicle operated or provided by such other provider, and (B) any loss or damage due to delay, cancellation, or disruption in any manner caused by the laws, regulations, acts or failures to act, demands, orders, or interpositions of any government or any subdivision or agent thereof, or by acts of God, strikes, fire, flood, war, rebellion, terrorism, insurrection, sickness, quarantine, epidemics, theft, or any other cause(s) beyond their control. The participant waives any claim against CWC/CCJ for any such loss, damage, injury, or death. By registering for the trip, the participant certifies that he/she does not have any mental, physical, or other condition or disability that would create a hazard for him/herself or other participants. CWC/CCJ shall not be liable for any air carrier’s cancellation penalty incurred by the purchase of a nonrefundable ticket to or from the departure city. Baggage and personal effects are at all times the sole responsibility of the traveler. Reasonable changes in the itinerary may be made where deemed advisable for the comfort and well-being of the passengers.

Legend Thu

San Francisco

Free program for members

East Bay

Free program for everyone

Silicon Valley

Members–only program

Fri

S at

Sun

2:00 p.m. Russian Hill Walking Tour

Noon Oil, Earthquakes and Declining Science in Arabia FM

Noon Jared Diamond 2:00 p.m. SF Architecture Walking Tour 5:30 p.m. Recent Acquisitions 6:00 p.m. Infections Cures

Noon Clean Clothes FM

Club offices closed

2:00 p.m. North Beach Walking Tour 5:30 p.m. Explore the World – What’s Your Wish List? FE 6:30 p.m. Y Combinator: The Secret in This Incubator’s Sauce

17 6:00 p.m. Why Free Trade Doesn’t Work

D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

December 03–10

FOREIGN LANGUAGE GROUPS Free for members Location: SF Club Office FRENCH, Intermediate Class Thursdays, noon Pierrette Spetz, Graziella Danieli, danieli@sfsu.edu FRENCH, Advanced Conversation Tuesdays, noon Gary Lawrence, (925) 932-2458 GERMAN, Int./Adv. Conversation Wednesdays, noon Sara Shahin, (415) 314-6482 ITALIAN, Intermediate Class Mondays, noon Ebe Fiori Sapone, (415) 564-6789 RUSSIAN, Int./Advanced Conversation Mondays, 1:30 p.m. Rita Sobolev, (925) 376-7889

DECEMBER 03 – FEBRUARY 08

M O N 03 | San Francisco

My World and How I Color It: An Exhibition by Toby Tover

Before the Dawn: Recovering the Lost History of Our Ancestors, by Nicholas Wade

Tover’s color-rich paintings are a personal narrative on the human experience. Embodied with humor, her “clip shot” portraits capture the inner characters of her subjects. Whether with the flick of a cigarette or a sideways glance, her subjects speak to us in volumes. Tover’s exhibition will be on view until February 8. MLF: THE ARTS Location: SF Club Office Time: Regular Club business hours Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Lynn Curtis

Nicholas Wade explores the deep roots of our cognitive and emotional nature, beginning with the origin of humanity in Africa 50,000 years ago, and traces the human population’s spread and development throughout the world, up to the present. Science journalist Wade applies the insights of genetics to these questions about our species. As a reminder, this is a book discussion group. The author will not be present. MLF: SF BOOK DISCUSSION Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: $5 standard, MEMBERS FREE Program Organizer: Barbara Massey and Howard Crane

SPANISH, Advanced Conversation (fluent only) Fridays, noon, Luis Salvago-Toledo, lsalvago@comcast.net

M O N 03 | San Francisco

M O N 0 3 | S i l i co n Va l l e y

Grandmother Power: A Global Phenomenon

Show Me the Funny! Hollywood’s Top Comedy Writers

Beans to Bars: Exploring the World of Artisan Chocolate

Paola Gianturco, Author; Photojournalist

Gianturco discusses a new international movement by grandmothers who are younger, better educated and healthier than grandmothers have ever been before. Grandmother Power: A Global Phenomenon depicts activist grandmothers in 15 countries who are fighting effectively and courageously against poverty, disease, illiteracy, environmental degradation and abuse of human rights to create a better world for grandchildren everywhere. MLF: GROWNUPS/INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students Program Organizer: John Milford Also know: In association with the International Museum of Women, the Global Fund for Women and San Francisco Village

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Jeffrey Davis, Writer, “Love Boat,” “House Calls with Lynn Redgrave,” “Give Me a Break,” “Diff’rent Strokes” and “Night Court” Peter Desberg, Writer; Researcher on Humor and Business; Consultant

Enjoy a unique glimpse into the intelligent and quirky inner workings of the comedic mind as Davis and Desberg share their experiences interviewing 28 top comedy screenwriters, from the revered figures of television’s Golden Age to today’s favorite movie and TV writers. MLF: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members, $7 students Program Organizer: Ann Clark

D EC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

Join us as we delve into the fascinating world of artisan chocolate makers, cacao growers and the pleasures of tasting fine chocolate. Chocolate curator Sunita de Tourreil brings her scientific training in molecular biology, her desire to strengthen communities and promote a healthier planet, and her appetite for delicious food to educate us on the history, science and ethical production of chocolate. During the program, we will taste decadent chocolate blends of the world’s finest cacao beans, created exclusively for The Chocolate Garage. Location: The Chocolate Garage, 654 Gilman Street, Palo Alto Time: 6:15 p.m. check-in, 6:30-8:30 p.m. program/tasting Cost: $35 standard, $30 members. Advance registration required.

T U E 04 | San Francisco

W E D 05 | San Francisco

James Hansen: Stephen Schneider Climate Science Communication Award Author, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars • Additional panelists TBA

Simon Winchester: Skulls – A Compelling Tale of the World’s Most Bizarre Collection

How did climate science become so politicized? Just a few years ago, John McCain and Lindsay Graham were among conservatives who accepted the basic physics of heat-trapping gases and the need to decouple carbon pollution from economic growth. Today, many candidates claim the science is unsettled and scientists are the targets of smear campaigns.

Journalist; Author, A Crack at the Edge of the World and Skulls: An Exploration of Alan Dudley’s Curious Collection

Political Science: Michael Mann, Professor of Geosciences, Penn State;

Time: 4:30 p.m. check-in, 5-6 p.m. program, 6-6:30 p.m. refreshment break

Stephen Schneider Climate Science Communication Award James Hansen, Head, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Adjunct Professor, Earth Institute, Columbia University; Author, Storms of My Grandchildren

NASA climatologist Hansen has grown increasingly concerned about the risks of climatic tipping points, which could bring catastrophic consequences. His recent research is also identifying human fingerprints on specific instances of extreme weather, putting him out in front of many of his peers. Hansen is the recipient of the 2012 Stephen Schneider Award for Climate Science Communication, a $10,000 award in memory of the late, great Stanford climate scientist and former member of the Climate One Advisory Council. Climate scientist Ben Santer will present Hansen with the award for his achievements.

The renowned writer and raconteur whose books on the 1906 earthquake, the Oxford English Dictionary and Krakatoa captivated readers worldwide now presents a spellbinding exploration of an obsessive collector of what some may call the macabre: more than 300 animal skulls. Join Winchester for a fascinating and entertaining exploration into obsession and the macabre.

Location: SF Club Office • Time: 6:30-7:30 p.m. program • Cost: Regular: $30 standard, $20 members, $7 students (with valid ID). Premium (priority seating): $65 standard, $45 members. Price includes both sessions.

Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing Cost: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students

T H U 06 | San Francisco

F R I 07 | San Francisco

M O N 10 | San Francisco

Russian Hill Walking Tour

Oil, Earthquakes and Declining Science in Arabia

Middle East Discussion Group

Join a more active Commonwealth Club Neighborhood Adventure! Russian Hill is a magical area with secret gardens and amazing views. Join Rick Evans for a twohour hike up hills and staircases and learn about the history of this neighborhood. See where great artists and architects lived and worked, and walk down residential streets where some of the most historically significant houses in the Bay Area are located. Location: Meet in front of Swensen’s Ice Cream Store located at 1999 Hyde Street at Union. Tour ends about six blocks from the Swensen’s Ice Cream Shop, at the corner of Vallejo and Jones. Time: 1:45 p.m. check-in, 2– 4 p.m. tour Cost: $45 standard, $35 members Also know: Steep hills and staircases, parking difficult. Limited to 20. Must pre-register. Tour operates rain or shine.

Muawia Barazangi, Professor Emeritus, Cornell University; Ph.D., Seismology Richard Cardwell, Academic; Former Senior Geophysicist, Chevron - Moderator

How do natural resources and geologic features affect the course of Middle Eastern history and geopolitics? Barazangi highlights the critical importance of better understanding Islamic history and cultures of the Arab/Persian region, which has the world’s largest oil reserves. He will also discuss the earthquake hazards of the Dead Sea Fault and the decline of science and technology in Arabia. MLF: MIDDLE EAST/SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Location: SF Club Office Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, students free (with valid ID) Program Organizer: Celia Menczel

Make your voice heard in an enriching, provocative and fun discussion with fellow Club members as you weigh in on events shaping the face of the Middle East. Each month, the Middle East Member-Led Forum hosts an informal roundtable discussion on a topic frequently suggested by recent headlines. After a brief introduction, the floor will be open for discussion. All interested members are encouraged to attend. There will also be a brief planning session. MLF: MIDDLE EAST Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Celia Menczel

D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

December 10 – January 10 M O N 10 | San Francisco

M O N 10 | San Francisco

TUE 11 | East Bay

Ethical Destinations: Vote with Your Wings

December 21st, 2012 and All That: An Entertaining History of End of the World Doom

Will Durst: Elect to Laugh

Jeff Greenwald, Executive Director, Ethical Traveler Malia Everette, Director, Global Exchange Reality Tours; Founder, Altruvistas

One of the most important things concerned travelers can do is spend their tourist dollars in countries that uphold core values like human rights, civil society and environmental protection. Every November, Bay Area-based Ethical Traveler releases its list of “The World’s Best Ethical Destinations,” which honors 10 countries – all in the developing world – that are promoting a locally based, sustainable tourism economy. Join a discussion on which nations made the 2013 list. Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students (with valid ID)

David Morrison, Director, Carl Sagan Center for Study of Life in the Universe; Senior Scientist, NASA Lunar Science Institute

Monday Night Philosophy looks at the widespread conviction that the end of the world is nigh. Polls tell us that one in ten Americans does not expect to live past December 21. We will delve into why eschatological excesses excite and enchant otherwise (fairly) rational minds, and how the Internet is being used to spread doomsday stories. Come have some unusual holiday discussions. This may be your last chance! MLF: HUMANITIES Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students Program Organizer: George Hammond

Hailed by The New York Times as “possibly the best political comic in the country,” Durst has amused audiences around the nation on radio, television and stage. A five-time Emmy nominee, he was fired by PBS three times; racked up seven nominations for Stand-Up of the Year; and his 800+ television appearances include stints on Letterman, HBO, Showtime, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox News, the BBC and many more. After the waning of the 2012 election season, join him for a night of laughs and bipartisan bashing that is sure to lighten the mood. Location: Lafayette Library, 3491 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Lafayette Time: 5:45 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. book signing Cost: $22 standard, $12 members, $7 students

T U E 11 | San Francisco

W E D 12 | San Francisco

Commonwealth Club Book Launch: The Real Problem Solvers

Joanne Weir: Hot Out of the Oven

Ruth Shapiro, Ph.D.; Editor, The Real Problem Solvers; Principal, Keyi; Founder and Senior Advisor, Asia Business Council Strategies; Social Entrepreneur in Residence, The Commonwealth Club of California Matt Bannick, Contributor, The Real Problem Solvers; Managing Partner, Omidyar Network Kriss Deiglmeier, Contributor, The Real Problem Solvers; Executive Director, Graduate School of Business Center for Social Innovation, Stanford Premal Shah, Contributor, The Real Problem Solvers; President, Kiva

Today, “social entrepreneurship” describes a host of new initiatives and approaches that break from traditional philanthropic behavior and are having a major impact on society. Come celebrate the launch of a new Commonwealth Club book entitled The Real Problem Solvers, featuring leading entrepreneurs, funders, investors, thinkers and champions talking from their own, first-person perspectives. Join Editor Shapiro and contributors Bannick, Deiglmeier and Shah for the premiere of this important book that serves as the ideal introduction to the amazing potential of social entrepreneurship. Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:15 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m program, with brief comments by panelists 6:30 p.m. light hors d’oeuvres and book signing Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students (with valid ID)

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

D EC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

Chef and Owner, Copita Tequileria y Comida; Host, “Joanne Weir’s Cooking Confidence”; Author, Joanne Weir’s Cooking Confidence

We love the occasional bit of sea urchin foam with our rabbit roulade, but more often than not we find comfort in a home-cooked meal. Weir has cooked with Alice Waters, studied under Madeleine Kamman in France, and won a James Beard Award, but her heart is in home cooking. Come glean tips from her food theory and technique. Location: SF Club Office Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. reception and book signing Cost: $25 standard, $15 members Also know: Underwritten by The Bernard Osher Foundation, as part of the Food Lit Series

T U E 18 | San Francisco

W E D 19 | San Francisco

M O N 07 | San Francisco

A Bright Future for Health Care: Is It Possible?

Design Alert: Blue Is the Next Green

Trauma and First Responders: An Insider’s View of First Responder Culture

Dr. Donald Berwick, Former President and CEO, Institute for Healthcare Improvement; Former Administrator, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

Peter Williams, Founder, CEO and Architect, ARCHIVE Global

This program is cancelled.

The second annual Lundberg Institute Lecture welcomes Berwick. Hear Berwick’s ideas on how true delivery system reform – changing care to better meet the needs of patients, families and communities – provides a sensible and effective alternative to the much-feared threat of rationing of care. MLF: HUMANITIES Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members, $7 students Program Organizer: George Hammond Also know: In association with The Lundberg Institute

Joel Fay, Psy.D.

First responders include police, fire and emergency medical services. They have unique cultural norms that allow them to function individually and as a team during high-stress events. The ability to suppress emotions and remain functional despite what is encountered is an asset but can also be a liability when they need help. This presentation will discuss some common first responder cultural norms, how those norms affect treatment, and lessons learned at the West Coast Posttrauma Retreat. MLF: PSYCHOLOGY Location: SF Club Office Time: 4:45 p.m. networking, 5:15 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE Program Organizer: Patrick O’Reilly

W E D 09 | San Francisco

T H U 10 | San Francisco

Gary Bukovnik: Exploring the Palate

North Beach Walking Tour

Explore the World – What’s on Your Wish List of International Relations Programs?

Gary Bukovnik, Visual Artist

Primarily using watercolor, monotype and lithograph, Bukovnik fuses sensual vitality with fluid yet powerful colorations, creating floral and culinary images. Renowned for his signature designs for the San Francisco Symphony, he reflects upon the exploration of ideas influenced by residencies at home and abroad. Bukovnik’s solo exhibitions include Caldwell Snyder Gallery in San Francisco, Campton Gallery in New York City; the Concept Gallery in Pittsburgh and the A.C.T. Gallery in San Francisco. MLF: THE ARTS Location: SF Club Office Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members Program Organizer: Anne Smith

Join another Commonwealth Club Neighborhood Adventure! Explore vibrant North Beach with Rick Evans during a two-hour walk through this neighborhood with a colorful past, where food, culture, history and unexpected views all intersect in an Italian “urban village.” In addition to learning about Beat generation hangouts, you’ll discover authentic Italian cathedrals and coffee shops. Location: Meeting spot is Washington Square Park at Saints Peter and Paul Church (Filbert & Powell). Transportation to Washington Square Park is either the 30 bus or the 41/45 - all of which stop right in front of the park. Our guide will be on the steps of the church. Please meet at 1:45, depart by 2. Time: 2-4 p.m. tour Cost: $45 standard, $35 members Also know: Limited to 20 people. Must preregister. Operates rain or shine.

Join us for this special brainstorming session of our International Relations Forum to launch the 2013 program year. We want to know who your dream speakers are. What hot international topics interest you? Our forum focuses on Europe, Latin America, Africa and global issues. What subjects have we neglected? Who at the podium would draw you to the Club no matter what? Here’s your chance to raise your voice and shape our plans. Anyone is welcome to attend, and all ideas are open for discussion. MLF: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: FREE Program Organizer: Norma Walden and Linda Calhoun

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January 10–24 T H U 10 | San Francisco

TUE 15 | East Bay

Y Combinator: The Secret in This Incubator’s Sauce

A Blueprint for Growth in Contra Costa County

Harj Taggar, Co-founder, Y Combinator Joe Gebbia, CPO and Co-founder, Airbnb Steve Huffman, Co-founder, Hipmunk and Reddit Drew Houston, Co-founder, Dropbox Jude Gomila, C-founder, Heyzap

Companies like Heyzap, Airbnb, Hipmunk, Reddit and Dropbox are all very different but have one mighty factor in common – they got their initial green and kibitz from Y Combinator. Heralded by Wired as the “most prestigious program for budding digital entrepreneurs,” YC rests on a formula of seed funding, peer networking and a threemonth do-or-die boot camp. What is the secret to the Y Combinator sauce that turns out such wildly successful companies? Hear from Y Combinator Partner Harj Taggar and four of its most booming YC graduates to get a look behind the curtain of this Silicon Valley incubator icon. Location: SF Club Office Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. networking reception Cost: Regular: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students (with valid ID); Premium (includes reserved seating and premium reception with the speakers. Limited to 65 guests): $60 standard, $45 members.

Panelists TBA

The California Center of the Milken Institute recently published a report providing a platform to help public officials and business leaders chart a brighter future for CoCo County. The county boasts a mature industrial base that generates more than $50 billion in annual sales. Lately, however, lower-paying jobs have grown more rapidly than higher-paying ones, leading to increasing wealth disparity. The Milken report presents a plan for creating widespread prosperity in the county while also addressing the needs of the region’s job creators and industries. Location: Lafayette Library and Learning Center, 3491 Mt. Diablo Blvd. Lafayette  Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program  Cost: $22 standard, $12 members, $7 students

M O N 14 | San Francisco

T H U 17 | San Francisco

Public Trust and Public Land

Nora Volkow: Working to Eliminate Addiction

Why Free Trade Doesn’t Work

Chris Kay, COO, The Trust for Public Land

Monday Night Philosophy looks at America’s increasing need for more and better urban parks. As urban areas become ever more densely populated, and urban populations ever more sedentary, both the health and economic benefits that vibrant park systems provide to local economies have too often been overlooked. Kay will discuss how local conservation communities have worked together to educate their neighbors and to inspire more leaders to commit public and private resources to enhance our parks.

M.D., Director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health

MLF: HUMANITIES Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students (with valid ID) Program Organizer: George Hammond

Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program Prices: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7students (with valid ID)

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Addiction affects 23.2 million Americans. The head of the National Institute on Drug Abuse believes that all addictions can be eliminated if the brain’s receptors can be controlled. She will explain her groundbreaking work and the amazing personal story that has allowed her, as the great-granddaughter of famed Russian dissident Leon Trotsky, to achieve her current prominence.

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Ian Fletcher, Author, Free Trade Doesn’t Work; Senior Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America

Free trade is one of the sacred cows in American economic policy. But as our $500 billion a year trade deficit continues, people are asking whether it deserves this status. The principles of economics that underlie free trade are controversial, and some of the most recent economic models question its soundness as policy. Fletcher will look at what economic history really says about free trade, and what some rational alternatives might be. MLFS: BUSINESS & LEADERSHIP/ INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing Cost: $20 standard, $8 members, $7 students Program Organizer: Norma Walden

T U E 22 | San Francisco

W E D 2 3 | S i l i co n Va l l e y

W E D 23 | San Francisco

John Mackey: A Whole-istic Approach to Capitalism

Humanities West Book Discussion: A Pepys Anthology

John Mackey, CEO, Cofounder, Whole Foods Market

Iconic CEO and co-founder Mackey is known for his all-natural approach to mega chain Whole Foods. His stores are, in part, credited with a boom in the healthy food movement. He’s also taken the formula for conscious capitalism and corporate social responsibility to a whole new level, and other businesses are following suit. Find out more about the Whole Foods story.

Iconic CEO and co-founder Mackey is known for his all-natural approach to a mega chain of grocery stores, Whole Foods. He’s also taken the formula for conscious capitalism and corporate social responsibility to a whole new level, and other businesses are following suit. Find out more about the Whole Foods story.

Join us to discuss the writings of Samuel Pepys, a Restoration-era London civil servant who worked to improve the Royal Navy and eventually became a member of Parliament. The diary he kept as a young man in the 1660s, published in 1825, has made him posthumously famous. Pepys’s diary gives vivid insight into his life and times and includes a first-hand account of the Great Fire of London. The discussion, led by Lynn Harris, will use the edition edited by Robert and Linnet Latham.

Location: Schultz Cultural Hall, Oshman Family JCC, 3921 Fabian Way, Palo Alto Time: 6:30 p.m. check-in, 7 p.m. program, 8 p.m. book signing Cost: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students. Premium (priority seating and copy of Mackey’s book) $40 standard, $40 members.

MLF: HUMANITIES Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. program Cost: $5 standard, MEMBERS FREE Program Organizer: George Hammond

W E D 23 | San Francisco

WED 23 | East Bay

T H U 24 | San Francisco

Follow the Open Doors: How Boomers Are Creating Second Careers through Franchising

Theater in the East Bay

Infectious Cures: Hijacking Viruses to Overcome Disease

Location: SF Club Office   Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program, 7:30 p.m. reception and book signing Cost: Regular: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students. Premium (book, reserved seating and premium reception. Limited to 65 guests): $50 standard, $35 members

Gordon Dupries, President, FranNet of San Francisco

Dupries shares stories of boomers who have achieved second careers, security and success through franchising. He will address what is uniquely important to the boomer generation, what kind of person is right for self-employment, why franchising works for boomers, and what opportunities are most exciting now. He will discuss second incomes, semi-absentee ownership, sources for free business counseling, financing options and access to free online assessment. MLF: GROWNUPS Location: SF Club Office Time: 4:45 p.m. networking, 5:15 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members Program Organizer: John Milford Also know: In assn. with San Francisco Village

Jonathan Moscone, Artistic Director, California Shakespeare Theater Tony Taccone, Artistic Director, The Berkeley Repertory Theatre

The artistic forces behind the success of the Bay Area theater scene join us to explore their life and work. Moscone, son of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and a Yale-trained director, took charge of the California Shakespeare Theater in 2000 and turned around the once struggling troupe. And during Taccone’s tenure at the Berkeley Rep, the Tony Awardwinning nonprofit has earned a reputation as an international leader in innovative theater and as an incubator of new plays. Location: Lafayette Library and Learning Center, 3491 Mt. Diablo Blvd. Lafayette Time: 6 p.m. check-in, 6:30 p.m. program Cost: $22 standard, $12 members

Leor Weinberger, Ph.D.; Associate Investigator, Gladstone Institutes Shannon Bennett, Ph.D.; Associate Curator of Microbiology, California Academy of Sciences (host)

Everywhere, viruses such as HIV compete with their hosts in an evolutionary arms race – building resistance to the latest therapies in order to maintain their deadly hold on our species. What if we could turn HIV on its head by hijacking the very virus that ravages the body, and transforming it into a cure? Location: SF Club Office  Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. book signing  Cost: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students Also know: In partnership with the California Academy of Sciences. In association with the Gladstone Institutes.

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January 24–29 T H U 24 | San Francisco

T H U 24 | San Francisco

San Francisco Architecture Walking Tour

Recent Acquisitions: Bay Area Museums Collect

Explore San Francisco’s Financial District with historian Rick Evans. Hear about the famous architects who influenced the building of San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake. Discover hard-to-find rooftop gardens, Art Deco lobbies, unique open spaces and historic landmarks. This is a tour for locals, with hidden gems you can only find on foot! For those interested in socializing afterward, we will conclude the tour at a local watering hole. Location: Lobby of Galleria Park Hotel, 191 Sutter St. Time: 1:45 p.m. check-in, 2–4:30 p.m. tour Cost: $40 standard, $30 members Also know: Tour operates rain or shine. Limited to 20 people. Participants must pre-register. The tour covers less than one mile of walking in the Financial District. Involves stairs.

Alexis Coe, Museums Blogger, SF Weekly Susan Goldstein, City Archivist of San Francisco Elizabeth Kathleen Mitchell, Burton and Deedee McMurtry Curator of Prints, Drawings, and Photographs, Cantor Arts Center at Stanford Julie M. Muñiz, Associate Curator of Crafts and Decorative Arts, Oakland Museum of California Forrest McGill, Ph.D.; Chief Curator and Wattis Curator of South and Southeast Asian Art, Asian Art Museum

Join Coe for an exciting discussion about the most important, often wondrous, sometimes bizarre and occasionally downright vexing items that make up a museum’s special collections. She will be joined by a panel of curators from the Asian Art Museum, Stanford’s Cantor Center for the Arts, the Oakland Museum of California and the San Francisco History Center. MLF: THE ARTS Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking reception, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members, $7 students (with valid ID) Program Organizer: Anne W. Smith

T H U 2 4 | S i l i co n Va l l e y

FRI 25 | SAN FRANCISCO

Jared Diamond

Christina Romer and Keith Hennessey: Bank of America/ Walter E. Hoadley Annual Economic Forecast

Professor of Geography, UCLA; Author, Guns, Germs, and Steel and The World Until Yesterday

Pulitzer Prize-winning author Diamond examines how Amazonian Indians, Inuit and other traditional societies have adapted and evolved for nearly 6 million years. He explains what we can still learn from these traditional societies regarding universal human problems like elder care, child rearing, physical fitness and conflict resolution. Location: Schultz Cultural Hall, Oshman Family JCC, 3921 Fabian Way, Palo Alto Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program, 1 p.m. book signing Cost: Regular: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students. Premium (priority seating and copy of new book) $45 standard, $45 members.

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Keith Hennessey, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director, National Economic Council Under President George W. Bush; Member, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Christina Romer, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; Immediate past Chair, President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers

As we come off an election year and face a series of new and ongoing challenges, don’t miss this lively discussion with two former top presidential economic advisors on where the U.S. and global economies are headed in 2013 and what should be done to put them – and keep them – on track. Registration required by noon on January 23, 2013. MEMBERS-ONLY +1 paying guest Location: Ballroom, Hotel Nikko, 222 Mason St. Time: 11:45 a.m. luncheon, 12:30 p.m. program Cost: Regular $85 standard, $65 members. Table pricing: Before Dec. 31, 2012: $800 members; $1,100 standard; $2,500 patrons. After Dec. 31, 2012: $960 members; $1,320 standard; $3,000 patrons. To purchase tables, please contact Mary Beth Cerjan in the Club’s Development department at (415) 869-5919. Also know: Underwritten by Bank of America

D EC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

F R I 25 | San Francisco

M O N 28 | San Francisco

Clean Clothes

Jack Gallant: Reverse-Engineering the Human Brain

Casey Sheahan, CEO, Patagonia Chip Burgh, CEO, Levi’s

From organic cotton to recycled zippers, clothing brands are trying to establish their green credentials with consumers who care about the health of their bodies and the planet. What lies ahead for product labeling and making the $200 billion U.S. clothing industry more sustainable? Are efforts encouraging consumers to wash their clothes less a smart move or a retailer dodge? Do U.S. brands really monitor their factories in China? Join a conversation with leaders in the effort to run companies that make durable and responsible products.

Jack Gallant, Professor of Psychology, UC Berkeley

The human brain is the most sophisticated computer system known to man, capable of impressive feats under challenging natural conditions. Reverse-engineering the brain might enable us to design artificial systems with the same capabilities. Gallant will discuss how this framework could form the basis of practical new brain-reading technologies and inform development of biologically inspired computer vision systems.

Podcasting Subscribe to our podcasts! Receive a new program recording each week. It’s free! For more information, visit commonwealthclub.org/podcast

Location: SF Club Office Time: 11:30 a.m. check-in, noon program, 1 p.m. networking reception Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students

MLF: HEALTH & MEDICINE/ SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students Program Organizer: Daniel Trachewsky

M O N 28 | San Francisco

T U E 29 | San Francisco

Middle East Discussion Group

Winning Retirement Strategies: How to Pay for Everyone Now Living Longer

David Kitaen, CLTC Mike Welch, CRPC

Conventional wisdom holds that people should begin collecting Social Security retirement benefits as soon as possible, which is age 62. But the “silver tsunami” is here, and 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every day and are expected to live longer than any previous generation. Welch will advise those approaching retirement age about strategies for when to begin collecting Social Security benefits to have a significant positive impact. Kitaen will address new long-term care legislation and the long-term care insurance evolution and explain how these developments can help pay the care costs for this longer-living cohort of senior citizens. MLF: GROWNUPS Location: SF Club Office Time: 4:45 p.m. networking reception, 5:15 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members, $7 students Program Organizer: John Milford Also know: In association with San Francisco Village

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January 29 – February 07 T U E 29 | San Francisco

W E D 3 0 | S i l i co n Va l l e y

Young Saviors

2013 Silicon Valley Reads: One Book. One Community. Kick-Off Event

Rosemary Davies, Graduate, Berkeley High School’s Green Academy Mike Haas, Founder, Alliance for Climate Education (invited)

Can the next generation save us all? The Alliance for Climate Education has trained nearly 1.5 million high school students around the country on how to reduce their own carbon footprint and engage others to do the same. Davies was one of 40 high school youths from around the world who traveled to the Arctic in 2012 for a transformative experience learning about climate and culture. Come join a conversation about how youth can build a better future, starting now.

Brian Castner, Author, The Long Walk: A Story of War and the Life That Follows Sue Diaz, Author, Minefields of the Heart: A Mother’s Stories of a Son at War In conversation with Mike Cassidy, Columnist, San Jose Mercury News

This year’s selections include two memoirs that deal with the invisible wounds of war. The two authors – a soldier and a soldier’s mother – come together to share their personal stories and discuss what happens when soldiers return home from war and must deal with the challenges of readjusting back to civilian life. Castner served three tours of duty in the Middle East and was commander of an explosive ordinance disposal unit in Iraq. Diaz has documented the emotional rollercoaster she experienced during her son’s deployment. Location: Campbell Heritage Theatre, 1 W. Campbell Ave., Campbell Time: 7 p.m. doors open, 7:30 p.m. program, 8:30 p.m. book signing Cost: FREE Also know: In assocation with the Santa Clara County Office of Education, Santa Clara County Library and San Jose Public Library Foundation

Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. networking reception Cost: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students

T H U 31 | San Francisco

Adventures in Cross-Cultural Etiquette: How to Avoid Faux Pas in Social and Business Situations

Solar Flares Lynn Jurich, President and Co-founder, Sunrun Danny Kennedy, President and Founder, Sungevity Additional panelists TBA

Syndi Seid, Founder, Advanced Etiquette

Come gain tips on how to feel confident meeting anyone from anywhere in the world – advice that can help you win friends, influence people and close deals. Seid is a world-leading expert on international business and social etiquette and protocol. She travels the world to present her unique learning experiences that offer her audiences new skills they can put into action immediately.

Through all the growing pains and political attacks, the U.S. solar industry is still moving ahead. Costs are down, new financing models are removing capital barriers for residential and commercial buyers, and sun energy is no longer just for hippies. What is the solar forecast for 2013? How will the trade spat with China impact the sector? The glut of cheap natural gas promises to undercut renewable energy, yet at the same time it can be a ready complement for when the sun is not shining and the wind isn’t blowing. Join us for a spin around the sun. Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m. program, 7:00 p.m. networking reception Location: SF Club Office Cost: $20 standard, $12 members, $7 students (with valid ID)

MLF: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members Program Organizer: Norma Walden

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M O N 04 | San Francisco

T U E 05 | San Francisco

Driving Growth

Leonard Susskind: The Theoretical Minimum – What You Need to Know to Start Doing Physics

Fred Krupp, President, Environmental Defense Fund Rhonda Zygocki, Vice President of Policy and Planning, Chevron

A flood of natural gas released by hydraulic fracturing is turning energy markets upside down. How will that affect the way the country powers its economy and moves around people and goods? Many countries are investing in clean fuels and putting a price on carbon emissions. Will the United States also start to price fuels to include their full costs? How will that impact the economy? Join us for a broad conversation with leaders of one of the country’s biggest energy companies and one of the world’s largest environmental organizations. Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. check-in, 6 p.m. program, 7 p.m. networking reception Cost: $20 standard, MEMBERS FREE, $7 students (with valid ID)

Felix Bloch Professor in Theoretical Physics, Stanford University; Director, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Physics

Ever wish you knew more about physics? Want to know how to think like a physicist? Here is your chance. Come listen to worldclass physicist Susskind, a father of string theory, to discuss the Theoretical Minimum – an alternative to the conventional go-to-college method. Susskind will discuss what you need to know to start doing physics and provide a tool kit for amateur scientists to learn physics at their own pace. MLF: SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Location: SF Club Office Time: 5:30 p.m. networking, 6 p.m. program Cost: $20 standard, $8 members, $7 students Program Organizers: Chisako Ress and Earl Ruby

T H U 07 | San Francisco

Nob Hill Walking Tour Nob Hill became an exclusive enclave of rich and famous West Coasters who built large mansions in the neighborhood. Residents included prominent tycoons such as Leland Stanford and other members of the Big Four. Highlights include the history of four landmark hotels: The Fairmont, Mark Hopkins, Stanford Court and the Huntington. Visit the city’s largest house of worship, Grace Cathedral, and discover architectural tidbits and anecdotes about the railroad barons and silver kings. Enjoy a true San Francisco experience of elegance, urbanity, scandals and fabulous views. Location: Meet in front of the Stanford Court Hotel, 905 California St. Time: 1:45 p.m. check-in, 2–4:30 p.m. tour Cost: $45 standard, $35 members Also know: Limited to 20. Must preregister. Tour operates rain or shine.

STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP Publication title: The Commonwealth. ISSN: 0010-3349. Filing date: October 3, 2011. Issue Frequency: Bimonthly. Number of issues published annually: 6. Annual subscription price: $34. Location of office of publication: 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Location of office of general business office: 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Name and address of Publisher: The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Editor: John Zipperer, Commonwealth Club, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Managing Editor: Sonya Abrams, Commonwealth Club, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Owner: The Commonwealth Club of California, 595 Market St., 2nd floor, San Francisco, CA 94105. Known bondholders, mortgages and other security holders: None.

Join The Club Membership is open to all. Support for The Club’s work is derived principally from membership dues.

EXTENT AND NATURE OF CIRCULATION

For more information, visit commonwealthclub.org/join

Avg. No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months: Total number of copies (net press run): 11,437. Paid/ Requested Outside County Subscriptions: 10,762. Paid In-County Subscriptions: None. Sales Through Dealers & Carriers: None. Other Classes Mailed Through USPS: None. Total Paid Distribution: 10,762. Free Distribution by Mail: None. Free or Nominal Rate Distribution Outside the Mail: 575. Total Free or Nominal Rate Distribution: 575. Total Distribution: 11,337. Copies not Distributed: 100. Total: 11,437. Percent paid and/or requested circulation: 94.93 percent. No. Copies Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date (October/November 2011): Total number of copies (net press run): 11,360. Paid/Requested Outside County Subscriptions: 10,760. Paid In-County Subscriptions: None. Sales Through Dealers and Carriers: None. Other Classes Mailed Through USPS: None. Total Paid Distribution: 10,760. Free Distribution by Mail: None Free or Nominal Rate Distribution Outside the Mail: 500. Total Free or Nominal Rate Distribution: 500. Total Distribution: 11,260. Copies not Distributed: 100. Total: 11,360. Percent paid and/or requested circulation: 95.56 percent. I certify that the statements above are correct and complete. John Zipperer, Vice President of Media & Editorial, October 3, 2011.

D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

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Subscribe to our podcasts on iTunes The Commonwealth Club: Putting you face to face with today’s thought leaders

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D EC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

ADOR AMBASS USAVIAN O M D E Y r, SE ch Schola Mosque photo by Xavier Allard / Flickr, missile photo by megoizzy / Flickr

esear Public Visiting R School of n o s il W ton Woodrow irs, Prince a ff A l a n atio and Intern thor, The Iranian ; Au University oir is: A Mem is r C r a le c Nu

IRAN

AN D THE

B M O B tor, tive Direc

UN Execu PHILIP Y Fund — Moderator

res Ploughsha

A former Iranian nuclear negotiation insider offers a plan to encourage both sides to strike a deal. Can the two long-time adversaries strike a grand bargain? Excerpt from “Iran’s Nuclear Dossier: Threat or Opportunity for U.S. Relations?,” September 5, 2012.

s the head of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Iran National Supreme Security Council from 1997 to 2005, I am fully convinced that Iran is not after the nuclear bomb. The elimination of weapons of mass destruction and the establishment of a zone free from such weapons in the Middle East are important elements of Iran’s national security doctrine. Nevertheless, Iran’s nuclear program has remained the number one political dilemma of the United States for the past decade. Nine years of negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany – known as P5+1 – on the nuclear issue have failed and will likely continue to do so as long as hostilities between Iran and the United States persist. With a dismal track record, the international community and Iran have once again returned to the negotiations table over Iran’s nuclear program. In the past month they

have held talks in Istanbul, Moscow and Baghdad that have created a momentum with very little in substance while the United States has already begun an economic, political, cyber and covert war with Iran.

“With

a dismal track record, the international community and Iran have returned to the negotiations table.” It’s conceivable that the U.S.-Iran relations will reach a turning point on the nuclear issue within a year. Without substantial progress on the diplomatic front, the chance for a unilateral Israeli or a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign aimed at destroying the uranium nuclear program could

become a probability. It’s therefore critically important for a better understanding of the Iran-U.S. dispute on nuclear and weapons of mass destruction in an effort to reorient the current diplomatic trajectory. In reality, Iran’s nuclear program is a subsidiary issue of relations [between Iran and the West], specifically, Iran-U.S. relations; while Iran-U.S. relations also is a subsidiary issue of Iran-Israel issues – conflict between Iran and Israel. On the nuclear issue, talks between Iran and Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 2003-2005 failed because the United States was not on board. Agreements between Iran, Turkey and Brazil in May 2010 failed because of the U.S. objection. The Russian step-by-step proposal in the summer of 2011 failed because the United States declined. Even the recent talks in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow failed because the United States was not ready to compromise on two major issues in response to Iran’s overtures: first, recognizing the

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legitimate rights of Iran under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and second, gradually lifting the sanctions. That’s why I always have advocated a realistic dual-track policy. First, a bilateral talk between Iran and the United States on a comprehensive package, including all bilateral, regional and international issues – a direct talk between Iran and the United States. The second track [would be a discussion] between Iran and the P5+1 on the nuclear issue. These are the two tracks I believe would need to be held in parallel, otherwise Iran’s talk with the P5+1 would not work.

Iran-U.S. talks

espite harsh rhetoric, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reached out to the United States more than all previous Iranian presidents since 1979, because he has had a freer hand toward rapprochement with the United States. During this time he has written letters to both presidents

– George W. Bush and Barack Obama, including congratulating the latter on his electoral victory in 2008 – while his U.S. counterparts have never responded to him. Right after the Iranian presidential election in 2009, Ahmadinejad, sent a

“Engagement has failed thus far and will continue to fail as long as both

sides undermine it with a dual-track appraoch.” message to Barack Obama – via Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – that he wanted direct talks with the United States and was ready to cooperate and help the United States in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

President Barak Obama also made some unprecedented diplomatic gestures toward Iran, raising hopes that the animosities that have plagued U.S.-Iran relations for the past three decades might be overcome, and rapprochement achieved. President Obama’s call for engagement without precondition or threat was a first for any American president since Iran’s 1979 revolution. Hence, Obama’s initial gesture was met with positive signs from Tehran, and Obama sent two letters to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who responded. Despite these unprecedented efforts by both presidents, engagement has failed thus far and will continue to fail as long as both sides undermine it with [another kind of ] dual-track approach. Official statements, and now diplomatic papers released by WikiLeaks, show that since early on in Obama’s tenure, even as the administration spoke of rapprochement, the United States continued the Bush administration’s policy of increasing pressures on Iran through new

Question & Answer Session

with Philip Yun, executive director of Ploughshares Fund

YUN: Tell us the motivation of why it was important to write this book. MOUSAVIAN: In Iran they know I have been advocating for 30 years good relations between Iran and the United States – Iran and the West. The problem is the lack of understanding on both sides. The second major problem is mistrust, but mistrust is mutual. Americans and Western countries need to understand why Iran cannot trust the West; they have their own legitimate reasons. Likewise, Americans and Western countries cannot trust Iran, and the Iranians also should understand why. Being here, I thought maybe the most important job that I can do is to write a book on the nuclear issue – as far as the nuclear issue is the Issue Number One for the U.S. and international community – to present the perspective and point of view of the Iranians for American public opinion and politicians, to facilitate a possible peaceful

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solution for the Iranian nuclear crisis. YUN: What do you say to those Americans who argue that a deal with Iran is really useless and that the Iranian government cannot be trusted? MOUSAVIAN: A lot of people say there is no use to trust Iran, and in Iran also they say there is no use to trust the United States. But my point is this: Iranians have approached the United States during all administrations, for a comprehensive package, a comprehensive deal. The three top nuclear negotiators since 2003 have sent the message to the White House that we want a grand bargain with you; we want a comprehensive deal and relationship with you, including the nuclear. But the United States has declined. The United States has never proposed to Iran a comprehensive package. My point is this: first try, at least once, after 33 years, a comprehensive package – including terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, the peace process, Israel, human rights and democracy – all these major points for the United States. Iranians also have their own shopping list, and the United States should be prepared to address Iranian concerns. If it fails, then come to your public

sanctions, hinting at a readiness to take military action, and supporting covert sabotage of Iran’s nuclear program. During Obama’s engagement policy, the United States has taken the toughest policies to date against Iran – the most far-reaching sanctions and legislation in the history of Iran-U.S. relations – by securing four United Nations Security Counsel-sanctioned resolutions, specifically Resolution 1929, [which includes] the most comprehensive sanctions the international community has ever approved against Iran; orders from the U.S. Navy for all units under its command to re-label the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf; sabotage of Iran’s nuclear program through spying and covert actions; and orchestrating international pressure on Iran to impose additional unilateral sanctions beyond the role of the current U.N. sanctions. U.S.-led sanctions against the Iranian oil industry are costing $133 million a day. Following the [U.S.] congressional election in [2010], the director of a Tel

Aviv-based Middle East economic and political analysis company called on incoming Republican members of Congress to support President Obama’s Iran policy because, as he said,“Obama has done more to undermine Iran over the

“[Iran’s negotiators] have sent the message to the White House that we want

a grand bargain with you.” course of two years than George W. Bush did in eight years.” In response to the U.S. dual-track policy, an Iranian leader noted, “They say that they have extended their arm toward Iran. What kind of hand? If it’s an iron hand concealed with a velvet glove, then it will

and say that it doesn’t work to try, because the United States has never tried. YUN: In a recent op-ed, you gave 20 reasons not to attack Iran and you were quite explicit in calling a military strike idiotic. Why is this the case, and do you fear that a strike can happen within the next six months or so? MOUSAVIAN: I don’t want to see the United States as a warfare country. I really don’t know what the United States gained by attacking Afghanistan and Iraq. What was the excuse? Weapons of mass destruction – it was a lie. Who did it? I don’t know. The war on terror against Al Qaeda and the Taliban – after 10 years now, the United States is doing its best to negotiate with the Taliban how to manage Afghanistan. If that was your objective, you could have done it at the beginning. [Laughter and applause.] This is exactly the reason I see that this would be a disaster for the United States, for Iran and for Israel to go to the fourth war against Muslim countries in the region. First of all, if the target is the Iranian nuclear program, it may delay, but you will never be able to remove Iranian nuclear technology because this is homemade. They have technology, they have knowledge, and if you destroy one facility, they would build tomorrow another facility. This is not the way, and I think the main loser would be Israel. Already Israel is isolated worldwide,

not make any good sense.” These actions have made the Iranian side believe that Obama’s talk of engagement with Iran is just talk and have also raised the cost for the Iranian side to approach the United States for rapprochement. Iran, meanwhile, has pursued a dual track of its own. Ahmadinejad has sabotaged his engagement policy with inflammatory rhetoric that has antagonized the United States and its allies – questioning the Holocaust, suggesting that the terrorist attacks of 9/11 were a U.S. government conspiracy and that Israel must be erased from the page of history. Such rhetoric has also increased the political cost tremendously for American politicians if they were seen to be soft on Iran. This approach – the dual track – has been counterproductive and has left the impression in Tehran and Washington that the other side has no real interest and intention in thawing relations. Therefore, due to the dual-track approach, both sides are confused about whether engagement is, for the other side, a strategy or a tactic.

and another war pushed by Israel would create more hatred toward Israel. America and Israel are doing their best to introduce Iran as Threat Number One in the Middle East. I understand why. But a poll by the Arab Institute covering 86 percent of Arab countries in 2011 shows that 94 percent of Arab people consider the United States and Israel as the number one threat, only 6 percent consider Iran. YUN: For those people here in the audience and those listening on television and radio, what do you want them to take away from your remarks here this evening? MOUSAVIAN: To end hostilities. Thirtythree years of hostility between Iran and the U.S. is enough. Enough is enough. Do we want to continue hostilities for another 33 years? It doesn’t work. D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

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Club Leadership OFFICERS OF THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB OF CALIFORNIA Board Chair Maryles Casto Vice Chair Anna W.M. Mok Secretary William F. Adams Treasurer Lee J. Dutra President and CEO Dr. Gloria C. Duffy BOARD OF GOVERNORS

Photo courtesy of Name name

Dan Ashley Frank C. Meerkamp Massey J. Bambara Richard Otter* Ralph Baxter Joseph Perrelli* Dr. Mary G. F. Bitterman** Hon. Barbara Pivnicka Hon. Shirley Temple Black* Hon. Richard Pivnicka John L. Boland Fr. Stephen A. Privett, S.J. J. Dennis Bonney* Dr. Mohammad H. Qayoumi Michael R. Bracco Toni Rembe* Helen A. Burt Victor A. Revenko* John Busterud* Skip Rhodes* Michael Carr Dr. Condoleezza Rice Hon. Ming Chin* Brian D. Riley Dennis A. Collins Fred A. Rodriguez Mary B. Cranston** Renée Rubin* Dr. Kerry P. Curtis Robert Saldich** Dr. Jaleh Daie Joseph W. Saunders Evelyn S. Dilsaver George M. Scalise Joseph I. Epstein* Lata Krishnan Shah Jeffrey A. Farber Connie Shapiro* Dr. Joseph R. Fink* Charlotte Mailliard Shultz Carol A. Fleming, Ph.D. George D. Smith, Jr. Leslie Saul Garvin James Strother William German* Hon. Tad Taube Dr. Charles Geschke Charles Travers Rose Guilbault** Robert Walker Jacquelyn Hadley Daniel J. Warmenhoven Edie G. Heilman Nelson Weller* Hon. James C. Hormel Judith Wilbur* Mary Huss Dr. Colleen B. Wilcox Claude B. Hutchison Jr.* Dennis Wu* Dr. Julius Krevans* Russell M. Yarrow John Leckrone Jed York Don J. McGrath * Past President ** Past Chair ADVISORY BOARD Karin Helene Bauer Hon. William Bradley Dennise M. Carter Rolando Esteverena Steven Falk Amy Gershoni

Heather M. Kitchen Amy McCombs Hon. William J. Perry Ray Taliaferro Nancy Thompson

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Seyed Mousavian (left) told Ploushares Fund’s Philip Yun he thinks there is a peaceful resolution possible.

A way out

agree on a face-saving solution where Iran o revive relations between Washington would adhere to all international nuclear and Tehran, the following principles conventions and treaties at the maximum can facilitate a constructive engagement level of transparency defined by the IAEA, to policy. [These are] the measures which I ensure the peaceful nature of Iranian nuclear propose that Tehran and Washington should activities and also to assure the internationtake, at least during al community that engagement policy the Iranian nuclear and negotiations: program would First, dual-track ap- “ remain forever not proaches are ceased only peaceful, [but between for the period of that] Iran would be negotiations; seccommitted forever Iran and the United States to be a non-nuclear ond, the language of threats and harsh weapon state. is enough. Do we want rhetoric is set aside; In reward, the third, hostile acUnited States would to continue hostilities for tions, sanctions and also agree to recogother forms of conize the legitimate another 33 years?” ercive pressures are rights of Iran under put on hold. To agree on a comprehensive NPT for enrichment and lift the sanctions agenda – this is what Iran wants – including gradually. This framework can be realized all bilateral, regional and international issues in future nuclear talks through a step-bydemonstrating the entire game plan, but step plan based on NPT, mutual confidence implemented through a phased-approach building, and appropriate reciprocity as plan – this is what the United States wants – agreed in the Istanbul talks in April 2012. this is the mixed approach, a comprehensive And my last point: To ensure a longpackage implemented in a phased approach; term sustainable solution, the United this is the way out. Nations Security Council, in cooperation Such a skillful approach will only be pos- with regional powers, should proactively sible if and when Tehran and Washington pursue the elimination of weapons of mass can isolate internal and external spoilers. destruction in the Middle East. This is the The framework on the nuclear dilemma is best, most sustainable and durable solution that on the nuclear issue, Iran and P5+1 can for all Middle Eastern countries.

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Thirty-three years of hostility

THE SOCIAL ENTREPRENEUR REVOLUTION Q&A with DR. RUTH A. SHAPIRO Author, The Real Problem Solvers: Social Entrepreneurs in America

Photo by Sonya Abrams

n 2010 and 2011, The Commonwealth Club organized a special series of programs exploring the burgeoning field of social entrepreneurship. Directing the series was Ruth Shapiro, the Club’s social entrepreneur in residence and the principal of consulting firm Keyi Strategies. She used her background in the subject matter to bring together leading voices in the world of social entrepreneurship, and now she’s put those voices down on paper to reach an even bigger audience. On the occasion of the publication by Stanford University Press of The Real Problem Solvers: Social Entrepreneurs in America (see commonwealthclub.org/problemsolvers), Commonwealth magazine editor John Zipperer spoke with Dr. Shapiro about her project. The book will be officially launched at The Commonwealth Club on December 11 (see page 34), and proceeds from its sale will benefit the Club. ZIPPERER: What was the genesis of your Social Entrepreneurship in America series at The Commonwealth Club? SHAPIRO: I had been living abroad; when I came back to the Bay Area, I started speaking about being a social entrepreneur. It became clear that, though the term is used, it’s not always used to mean the same things. I thought if I was unclear about the different uses and definition of the term, likely others would be as well. So I approached [Commonwealth Club President] Gloria Duffy and asked her if she would be interested in doing a whole series on this subject at the Club. She agreed. I was very keen not only to focus on the entrepreneurs themselves but on different individuals, organizations and perspectives that comprise the social entrepreneurship ecosystem. ZIPPERER: Tell us about the book, The Real Problem Solvers. Whom do you hope to reach with it? SHAPIRO: This book was written as a thoughtful, substantive introduction to the notion of social entrepreneurship. I wanted to include different voices from the ecosystem around it, so it includes people on the front lines, solving social problems in entrepreneurial ways; it

includes funders who are providing the financial support for them to do their work; it includes investors who are thinking about looking at social applications with an investment model in mind; and it includes thinkers who are thinking about what is the meaning of these changes that are being brought about and what are the implications for addressing changes going forward. And lastly it includes people I consider champions; it includes Muhammad Yunus, who first created an enterprise providing microloans and credit for the poor SOCIAL in Bangladesh, a concept that has grown into a global phenomenon; ENTREPRENEUR: and Bill Drayton, who coined the The person taking term social entrepreneur to mean the person who was taking the passion the passion and rigor and rigor of an entrepreneur and of an entrepreneur applying it to a social problem. and applying it to a These are among the key voices from the field in one volume. By social problem. reading this book, you get a very good understanding of the breadth and depth of the term social entrepreneurship and how people are applying it. ZIPPERER: How did you get interested in social entrepreneurship? SHAPIRO: I thought of myself as a social entrepreneur because I had created an organization in Asia that had never existed before and was a new way to address societal issues. When I came back to California and I described myself as a social entrepreneur, I met with a fair amount of resistance to the notion that I was one. So I thought, If not me, then who? That’s what I sought to answer through this exercise. ZIPPERER: How does America fare compared to other countries in terms of social entrepreneurs and social entrepreneurship? SHAPIRO: The notion of social entrepreneurship has really caught on in the Bay Area particularly, and I think it’s because of Silicon Valley. First, it’s because this is a part of the United States that embraces risk and has an appetite and a structure for supporting people with new ideas and helping them to succeed. Second, the ethos of Silicon Valley is to look for a new technology or an intervention that brings about paradigm-shifting change. Many social entrepreneurs are trying to scale their ideas and bring about systemic change. There’s an interesting correlation between developing a new product in Silicon Valley and developing a new solution in the social space. It correlates – not 100 percent, but well enough that a lot of the energy and skills and thinking that are evolving in Silicon Valley can be applied to the social entrepreneurship space as well. D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

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CITIZEN

SANDRA The first woman to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court discusses her past, the courts and why the younger generations need to become more politically engaged. Excerpt from “Justice Sandra Day O’Connor,” October 22, 2012. SANDRA DAY O’CONNOR Former Justice, U.S. Supreme Court in conversation with DR. MARY BITTERMAN President, Bernard Osher Foundation; Past Chair, Commonwealth Club’s Board of Governors O’CONNOR: There’s nothing like ranch life to toughen you up a little bit. I mean, if it’s a remote ranch like ours [when I was growing up] – we were 35 miles from the nearest small town. If something went wrong, there was no Yellow Pages and no phone to call, so you had to do it yourself.

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BITTERMAN: You graduated third in your class at Stanford Law School. But in trying to get a legal position, it was very difficult, and you ended up in a secretary position. Share that. O’CONNOR: I was offered a secretary position, but I didn’t take it. I met my

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husband-to-be in law school and he was a year behind me. I graduated, and he still had a year to go. We decided to get married out on the Lazy B Ranch. It was a difficult time, because we both liked to eat. That meant one of us had to work and he was still in school, so that one was me.

I heard that the county attorney in San They spent time checking me out. Then Mateo County once had a woman lawyer on I met the people who were sent out to check the staff. I thought, “Well, if he’s had one, on me. It wasn’t too long afterward that I he can have another.” I wrote him and made was sitting in my chambers at the court of an appointment to go see him. He was very appeals in Arizona, and the phone rang. nice. To this day the voters elect the county It was the White House calling. President attorney in the counties. Elected officials Reagan said, “Sandra?” are always gladhanders: They’re always glad “Yes, Mr. President.” to meet you. He welcomed me and we sat “I’d like to announce your nomination and talked and he looked at my resume, for the U.S. Supreme Court. Is that all right but he said, “I did have a woman here one with you?” time on the staff. She did a good job. I’d I didn’t know what to say to that. “Yes, be happy to have another, and you’ve got a Mr. President.” I had to go home that afgood resume, but I get my money from the ternoon and tell my husband. “You won’t county Board of Supervisors. I’m not funded believe the phone call I had today.” It to hire another deputy. But let me show you certainly affected his life more than mine. around the offices since you’re here.” I think what interested Ronald Reagan He walked me around the office and, was my life as a cowgirl. He loved to ride sure enough, every office was occupied. horses. He kept horses all of his life. Even in He said, “Thanks so much for coming the White House he kept a couple of horses around.” I explained to him that it was down on Rock Creek Park where the park very important to me to get a job. I said, rangers keep their horses. He loved ranch “I know you don’t have any money. I’ll be life and loved horseback riding. I think willing to work for you for nothing if you that’s what he liked about me. I don’t know will let me work in your office until such if it was my legal ability. time as the supervisors give you a little BITTERMAN: If we look now at the more money. I met your secretary. She’s bench, three of the justices are women. very nice and there is room in her office to O’CONNOR: It’s incredible. I go in put a second desk, if she wouldn’t object.” the courtroom today and look up and That was my see three women. first job out of law It’s astounding to school. No pay and me. It took [many] “My first job out of law I put my desk in years to get one on with the secretary. the bench, so it’s school: , and I I loved my job. I pretty amazing. got to answer variBITTERMAN: put my desk in with the ous questions that Can you ever imagwere posed by the ine that the court secretary. It was all right, district attorney, his could be predomideputies and the except the pay was slender.” nantly women? different agencies of O’CONNOR: Of the county. I loved what I was doing. It was course I can! They like to work hard. They’re all right, except the pay was a little slender. used to it. BITTERMAN: As we move forward, give BITTERMAN: Your quarter century everyone a sense of meeting with President on the bench saw you as a proponent of Reagan, and the stir the information about clear thinking, civility, compromise when your appointment caused on the Lazy B, in it was essential, and as David Gergen in Arizona and the nation. a recent interview with you put it, “the O’CONNOR: It was a shock that President sensible center.” How people yearn and Reagan ended up hiring a cowgirl from Arizona lust for a sensible center these days. Yours to go on the U.S. Supreme Court as the first was often the determining vote in a 5-to-4 woman to serve. He sent a couple of people out decision. I know that you’re not allowed to Arizona to check my record. I held various to opine on any matters currently before public offices in Arizona and there was plenty the Court – and many people also want about me in old newspapers. They had to check to know if you’d like to predict the outit all out. No Google at that time. come of the presidential election, which

No pay

Photo by Ed Ritger

I was out of law school, and my classmates from Stanford all had well-paid jobs in the big firms up here in San Francisco, earning their livings as distinguished lawyers. There were at least 40 names of law firms and phone numbers on a bulletin board saying “Stanford law graduates, call us. We’d like to talk to you about possible employment.” I called every telephone number on the bulletin board. Not a single one of them would give me an interview. They wouldn’t even talk to me. I said, “Why won’t you talk to me?” They said, “Well, we don’t hire women lawyers.” “Why not?” “We just never have and our clients wouldn’t stand for it.”

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1 Sandra Day O’Connor being sworn in by Chief Justice Warren Burger while her husband John O’Connor looks on, Sept. 25, 1981. 2 President Reagan with Justice O’Connor, July 15, 1981. 3 Charlotte Mailliard Shultz, O’Connor, Gloria Duffy, and Mary Bitterman. 4 Only four women have served on the Supreme Court of the United States. From left to right: Justice Sandra Day O’Connor (Ret.), Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Justice Elena Kagan in the Justices’ Conference Room, prior to Justice Kagan’s Investiture Ceremony on October 1, 2010. 5 At the Club, O’Connor stressed the need for young people to become politically engaged. 6 A sold-out crowd, including 200 students, came to see Justice O’Connor.

occurred to me you may want to pass on. Certainly people are, in many cases, familiar with your majority opinions. I’m wondering if you might comment on the importance of the dissent, and maybe speak to one of your dissenting opinions you authored, in Kelo v. City of New London in 2005. O’CONNOR: On the Supreme Court, of course, every case the court accepts for decision that is orally argued at the court results in a written opinion, or several, at the time that the decision is released so that the public can see them. In some of the cases, a fairly high percentage, the court is not unanimous. In the last term, something in the neighborhood of 30 percent had dissenting opinions.

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When there are separate opinions, you will have an opinion for the majority, and you can have separate writing by other justices. There will be a dissenting opinion and sometimes all of the justices will join the dissent, though it could be you’ll have a single dissent and separate opinions. Not every justice writes in every case. If you can join a circulating majority opinion, you don’t have to say anything else. You can join a circulating dissenting opinion. But for some reason, if you want to add something to the majority side, you can ask for the writer to include it. If the writer does not, you may want to write separately. You can join a dissenting opinion, or you can write your own dissenting opinion, or a concurring opinion.

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Much of the justices’ time is spent writing opinions. The work of the court is then expressing these written opinions. It’s very interesting to follow them if it’s an issue you care about. It makes for very good reading. I hope all of you, at least on occasion, take advantage of the opportunity to look at and read these opinions in a given case that you’re interested in. BITTERMAN: Would you speak to the goals you would hope to be accomplished by iCivics.org? O’CONNOR: I’ve been concerned for some time about how not enough people in our country are registering to vote when they can. About how not enough of those who are registered to vote do vote and make their voices known in our country. It

Photos: 1. courtesy U.S. National Archives; 2. courtesy White House Photographic Office; 4. by Steve Betteway; 3., 5., 6. by Ed Ritger

seemed to me that we were falling down on educating people on how our government works and how every one of us is part of it. The framers of our Constitution did a pretty darn good job when they wrote our Constitution and developed a system of government with three branches. We owe them enormous thanks; but to make it work, each of us has to participate in our [own] way. That means that when we’re eligible to vote, we need to register to vote, we need to cast that vote and we need to care about what happens in our governmental entities: our city, our county, our state and our national government. That’s how we participate, and it really does matter. I hope that every young person here is planning on being a participating citizen the minute you’re eligible. BITTERMAN: In one of your recent interviews, you were mentioning people who are preparing themselves for citizenship tests. So many people look at the materials and say, “My goodness, I wouldn’t be able to answer this.” O’CONNOR: If you’ve come here from Mexico or France and you want to become a citizen, you have to take a citizenship exam and it’s hard. They ask terribly hard questions. If you haven’t studied up a lot, you couldn’t pass that test. It’s amazing how much you have to be able to answer to become a citizen. But if you just have been born here, gone to school here, you’re already a citizen, you don’t have to know much at all. It’s just amazing. BITTERMAN: What do you consider your most difficult decision during your tenure in the court? O’CONNOR: Do you remember Bush v. Gore? That was pretty hard. BITTERMAN: A lot of these questions are from people in law school. Any tips for them? O’CONNOR: Study hard. Don’t think it’s just going to come. And you’re not going to learn everything you need to know just by going to class, but you better go to class. Do the reading that you’re supposed to read. Become a part of how our nation functions. I thought law school was challenging, but it also opened my eyes. All of a sudden I started learning why certain things are the way they are. It’s because of legal decisions and legal action taken by our legislative branches that instruct us in what we can

and can’t do. It’s just fascinating to go to law school and all of a sudden learn how we got where we are and why it’s like it is. That’s a great privilege to go to law school. BITTERMAN: Do Supreme Court justices ever regret decisions they’ve made? If so, what can they do about it? O’CONNOR: If you’re a person that likes to look back and say, “Oh my gosh, did I do the right thing last weekend when I went out instead of staying home and studying?” If you’re that kind of person and you’re on an appellate court, maybe you’re going to look back at opinions you wrote and ask yourself, “Did I do the right thing?” I’m not that kind of a person. I put my effort in at the front end. If I have a decision to make, I find out everything I can, pro and con, make the decision and move on. I don’t go back later

“I hope that every young person here is planning on being a participating citizen the minute

you’re eligible.”

and say, “Oh my gosh, do you think I was right?” But if you do, there isn’t a lot you can do about it if you’re on the Supreme Court. The decision will have been made. Maybe you can stay on the court long enough that some aspect of it would come up again sometime and you can say, “Oh, we ought to take that [case] and change that decision that was wrong.” I’ve had that happen, but that wasn’t the game I played. BITTERMAN: As the first woman on the high court, did you encounter any awkwardness on the part of your colleagues? O’CONNOR: No. There are nine members on the court. It’s possible that the court can divide rather evenly among the nine. At the time I was nominated, they were finding that they were divided on issues coming to the court. The members were glad to get a ninth justice, male or female. They were welcoming. We got along fine. I felt no resentment at all among any of my colleagues that I was there and I was a woman. Of course, we didn’t have a women’s restroom back on the floor where the justices were. That created a problem.

BITTERMAN: One student says the class is studying judicial activism and judicial restraint. What is your opinion on this? O’CONNOR: It seems to me that at a Supreme Court level, whether it’s a state supreme court or the U.S. Supreme Court, the decision made by that court is going to be the governing principle [going] forward in that particular legal issue. You want to be very careful about not reaching out too broadly. In my opinion, all these decisions should be written to solve the issue that’s actually before the court, and not try to write some sweeping principles of law that are going to decide all kinds of things in the future that aren’t before you at that time. I think it’s better for judges at the appellate level to write narrower opinions that deal with the specific issue in the case and not make broad rules that you don’t know how they will affect us in the future. I think it’s best to write narrowly. BITTERMAN: What about your views on elected versus the appointment of judges? O’CONNOR: Many of our states elect their state judges, rather than have them appointed. When the framers of our Constitution developed our system, all federal judges are nominated by the president with the advice and consent of the Senate. The Senate has to approve that selection by the president. That’s a good system for judges in my opinion. It has served our country well through the years. Many states don’t follow that example. They have popular election of all their state judges. That means that candidates run and they need campaign contributions to pay for their ads and their signs. Who contributes money to them? It’s the lawyers that are most likely to appear before them in court. What kind of a system is that? You’ve got some attorney that you know full well is going to be back before that judge representing different clients. He wants to be in the judge’s good graces, so he gives him a big campaign contribution. That is not the system we should have. California still elects some of its judges. You shouldn’t do that. You should change that. A number of our states do it for their Supreme Court all the way down. It’s really shocking to me that, after all these years, we still have so many elected judges. That’s not good. I’ve spent some time in my retirement years talking about this problem and

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writing a little bit about it. I feel strongly about it. I don’t think that’s a good system. BITTERMAN: Do Supreme Court justices, given their political or party leanings, influence the outcome of cases that come before the court? O’CONNOR: I’m sure it does at some level. If you happen to be someone who believes strongly, for example, in state rights and that more responsibility should be at the state level, and you have a decision to make that involves looking at some state law that the petitioning party before you in the court says is beyond the power of the state, you might be more sympathetic to the defense. That’s understandable. There are some issues where you may have written in other decisions about your understanding of some particular provision. Then it comes up in a later case; probably you’re going to look back at what you already said before in some other context and be affected by that. BITTERMAN: You had a long and wonderful marriage. How did your husband, who was trained as a lawyer as well, deal with your extraordinary prominence and success? O’CONNOR: He was just wonderful about it. I ask myself that question. How

“It’s fun to work where there is still quite a bit of room for going

forward,

making new discoveries and setting new boundaries.”

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could he put up with all that he put up with? Because it was a lot for a man to reckon with, to have a wife in a position like mine. He was just fantastic about it. He was totally supportive at every step of the process. I called him when President Reagan called me and I said, “John, the president just called and he wants to put me on the U.S. Supreme Court. What do you think about that? What should I do?” “Well, you have to say yes!” He was amazing. He was so outgoing and so open and so decent about accepting all these things that I did. I wish every woman who is getting married could marry someone as wonderful about letting her do what she wants to do as I did when I married John O’Connor. He was great. BITTERMAN: Someone has written in that their 10-year-old son loves iCivics.org and describes it as “addictive.” O’CONNOR: I’ve been concerned for a long time by the fact that schools in our country, generally speaking, are not teaching young people much about how our government works. We’ve had our students tested against students from other countries and we don’t do very well on math and science; we’re down in the middle somewhere. We have a lot of effort going on now to try to increase the capacity of our students and teach them more about math and science. In the process schools have focused on things other than civics, which is teaching us how our government works, and how we’re a part of it, how we have three branches and how the whole thing operates. I think it’s terribly important that we continue to educate every generation about how the government works at different levels and how we are part of it. This really matters. With the help of others I started this website called iCivics.org. We did it with games that the user plays. They play the game and in the process they learn how it works and what the principles are in that particular issue. The games are fun to play. It’s designed primarily for the middle school level, but it

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works all the way through high school. It even works for adults if you’re a dum-dum, so get on it. I’ve kept it free; it costs the schools nothing to use it. The young people learn a lot by playing the games and they enjoy it. I want you, as parents and grandparents, to make sure that your children’s schools know about iCivics.org. BITTERMAN: That’s not a request. It’s an instruction. O’CONNOR: That’s a court order. BITTERMAN: You’ve been so influential in your career, opening up tremendous doors of opportunity. Who has had the greatest influence on you? O’CONNOR: I just respected my parents so much. They were fabulous. I think that had to be it. They were super. They lived on a remote ranch, and who would have ever thought that their daughter would be the first woman member of the Supreme Court? They came back for the swearing in, and by that time my mother was suffering from Alzheimer’s. She didn’t know who was who. On the day of the swearing in, she met President Reagan and she said, “I think I’ve seen you some place before.” So I said, “That’s right,” and I tried to push her on. It was a great event for them. It meant that everyone they’d ever known their whole lives then wrote them a letter and said how interesting that their daughter went on to court. It brought a lot of mail and contact to them, and with the isolated lives that they lived it was nice for them. BITTERMAN: When people are appointed to positions for life, sometimes the question is raised, should positions be appointed for life, or should there be a limited term? Do you have thoughts on that in the high court? O’CONNOR: The framers of the Constitution didn’t set a term limit, and it’s worked out pretty well so far. I thought it was time for me to step down and I did, but I wasn’t required to do it. BITTERMAN: The people you sat with on the bench – do you stay in close touch with many of them? O’CONNOR: I do. I keep an office at the Supreme Court to this day. I agreed to sit as a judge with a number of the Federal Courts of Appeal. We have 14 Federal Cir-

cuit Courts of Appeal in this country, and I voluntarily sit with many of them on occasion to hear and decide cases in that circuit. Some of them need a little help, so I will go and sit on some cases. I’m going in a week or 10 days back to New York City, where I’ll be sitting with the Second Circuit on some cases there. I’ve kept up with what the courts are doing. BITTERMAN: Another thing from your wonderful book is a quotation from Wallace Stegner about frontiers, because many people think of you not only as leader but also as a great pioneer. Frontiers free people from artificial restraints and throw them into contact with clean nature, contributing to a generosity, openness, independence and courage unknown to the over-civilized. The descriptors he listed – generosity, openness, independence and courage – have all been applied to you as a public servant, as an associate justice of the Supreme Court, as a distinguished American and as an educator. With our frontiers rapidly disappearing, how can we provide opportunity for people to acquire these important virtues? O’CONNOR: Whatever we do, we have frontiers. If you’re fully employed in things with which we’re all familiar in our society, you still have frontiers in the sense that no particular profession has been so fully developed that there aren’t still frontiers out there, places you can go beyond what has been done so far. There are frontiers in every walk of life, in every profession and business. It’s good to know what those frontiers are. If you have the capacity to try to improve or enhance those frontiers in some way, do it. Try it. Young people particularly need to look at that when they choose a line of work or what they want to do. I think it’s fun to work in some area where there is still quite a bit of room for going forward, making new discoveries and setting new boundaries. That’s true of most things, because we learn more and then that opens still new avenues. Look at the medical field, look at the scientific field, you discover one thing and that leads to many more discoveries. There is always room for going forward. This program was made possible by the generous support of Bank of America.

BAY AREA BUSINESS LEADERS:

Get your place at the table for the Economic Event of the Year Two top economists will give you and your clients highlevel insight into the economy in 2013

2012 Bank of America • Walter E. Hoadley Economic Forecast Luncheon HotelNikko, San Francisco, January 25, 2013 Save 20% by purchasing your table before December 31 Table Prices Before Dec. 31, 2012: After Dec. 31, 2012:

Members $800 $960

Non-Members Patrons $1100 $2500 $1320 $3000

Featuring: Keith Hennessey, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director, National Economic Council Under President George W. Bush; Member, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Dr. Christina Romer, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; Immediate Past Chair, President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers To reserve your table today, contact Mary Beth Cerjan at mbcerjan@ commonwealthclub.org or (415) 869-5919

putting you face to face with today’s thought leaders D E C E M B E R 2012/J A N UA RY 2013

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

Photo courtesy of Gloria Duffy

InSight with

DR. GLORIA C. DUFFY

President & CEO, The Commonwealth Club

Protecting Our Seniors

lder financial abuse is rampant in this country. That a sitting For everyone like this friend and my family who have the funds to Alameda County Superior Court Judge, Paul David Seeman, fight the abuse of their parents, there are many families who are not so was charged this summer with stealing the assets of an elderly lucky. I know a wonderful man, a retired firefighter, whose mentally neighbor underlines the problem. If a judge is not able to act appro- ill sibling moved in with his beloved mother, taps his mother’s limited priately in handling the financial affairs of an elderly person, then how funds for her own use and will not let anyone else in the family see his can average citizens be expected to behave well? mother, who suffers from dementia. My friend initially tried to set up Both of my parents were victims of elder financial abuse. My father a conservatorship to protect his mom, but on learning the costs and was conned by an attorney who created a trust for him, made himself time it would take through the court process, being of modest means, my father’s executor and successor trustee, created an apparently bogus he realized sadly that he could not do anything to change the situation. charity with himself as chair of the board, and directed all my father’s One of the saddest things is that the financial designs of abusers, if assets to this supposed charity. We were able they live with seniors and are responsible for to recover a fraction of my father’s estate their care, can lead to emotional and physical through the courts. After this person did “The abuser exerts his or her abuse, isolation of the senior from other family something similar with another family and members and friends, even denial of medical questions were raised about whether any of the will on the senior to control treatment. The financial abuser exerts his or her funds have been used for charitable purposes, will on the senior through these methods, to gain he is under investigation by the California or keep control of the senior’s finances. Ninetythe senior’s finances.” attorney general. year-old actor Mickey Rooney gave startling My mother was victimized by a family member living with her testimony before the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging in 2011 who gained access to her credit cards and electronic access to her bank about his financial, emotional and physical abuse at the hands of relatives. account. Suffering from a shopping/hoarding/spending disorder, this Why is this problem occurring so frequently now? The extended individual used her funds to buy costly items and travel the world lifespans of seniors is part of the cause. People are frequently living into at my mother’s expense while her home, her health and her assets their 80s and 90s. But the aging brain deteriorates, causing diminished deteriorated. We won a lawsuit to bar the abuser from our mother’s capacity, loss of executive function and vulnerability to undue influence affairs, just in time to arrange overdue heart surgery for our mom by those who have designs on the seniors’ assets. And yet many seniors and secure her finances for her needs. She is now living safely and remain in charge of their finances into their 80s and 90s. In essence, happily with my sister, and her funds are used to provide her with some seniors are outliving their mental capacity to manage their affairs, the very best care available. This outcome took two years in court making them easy targets for financial abuse. Yet, tragically, their longer and huge legal costs to accomplish, and we are still sorting out the lifespans actually increase their dependence on secure financial assets. mess the abuser made. Our society and institutions have not caught up to the widespread These are just a couple of the kinds of scams and behaviors through prevalence of this problem. Modest legal and financial protections that which elders are being victimized. But there are seemingly endless have been enacted are not very effective. The courts are increasingly varieties of elder financial abuse. Many people I know are dealing with seeing elder abuse cases, but the costs of effectively dealing with the this problem in their families. I have a friend whose mom lives on problem through the civil court system are prohibitive for the average their family’s rural land in Vermont. A neighbor got her mom to sign citizen. Many in our society are not clear about the ethical and legal an easement across her property allowing him to run logging trucks requirements for handling the affairs of seniors. right by her house. Her mom had no idea what she was signing, and These are problems that must be discussed and better solutions must my friend had to bring an attorney from Chicago, where she lives, to be found. We’ll be talking about this more in the coming year, at The fight the easement. Commonwealth Club.

THE COMMO N WE AL TH

D EC EM BER 2012/JA N UA RY 2013

This is the best

educational trip I have ever taken! Exceeded Expectations.

Couldn’t imagine a better trip.

The guide was outstanding.

I have never had such

access to so many

intelligent,

articulate

Didn’t hear a question she could not answer.

speakers/lecturers

in such a short time.

Excellent travel mates!

Commonwealth Club travelers never fail to be an interesting and stimulating group. We met great people we hope to see at future Club events. The group was just the right size.

Wow. Wow. Wow.

This was my first trip with the Commonwealth Club,

Just outstanding!

Over the top!

and I can’t wait

to try another.

Thank you for making Photos by David Coleman and Kristina Nemeth

my life better.

For a complete listing of all our 2013 destinations, visit www.commonwealthclub.org/travel

The Commonwealth Club of California 595 Market Street, 2nd Floor San Francisco, CA 94105

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PROGRAMS YOU WON’T WANT TO MISS December 5

Simon Winchester

January 22/23

Journalist; Author, A Crack at the Edge of the World and Skulls: An Exploration of Alan Dudley’s Curious Collection

John Mackey CEO, Co-founder, Whole Foods Market; Co-author, Conscious Capitalism

The renowned writer and raconteur whose books on the 1906 earthquake, Krakatoa and the Oxford English Dictionary captivated readers worldwide, now presents a spellbinding exploration of an obsessive collector of what some may call the macabre: more than 300 animal skulls, including amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles.

Iconic CEO and co-founder Mackey is known for his all-natural approach to a mega chain of grocery stores, Whole Foods. The market for competitive advantage is changing. Find out more about the Whole Foods story from the man himself.

for event details, see page 33

January 24

Jared Diamond Professor of Geography, UCLA; Author, Guns, Germs, and Steel and The World Until Yesterday Pulitzer Prize-winning author Diamond examines how Amazonian Indians, Inuit and other traditional societies have adapted and evolved for nearly 6 million years. He explains what we can still learn from these traditional societies regarding universal human problems like elder care, child rearing, physical fitness and conflict resolution.

for event details, see page 38

A Whole-istic Approach to Capitalism

for event details, see page 37

January 25

Annual Economic Forecast Keith Hennessey Research Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director, National Economic Council Under President George W. Bush; Member, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Christina Romer Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley; Immediate Past Chair, President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers for event details, see page 38