P i p e l i n e t o J i ha d • Mc D ona l d’s G a n g • I mi r at K av k a z • W e a po n i ze d T uleremia
Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals
august/september 2014
Volume 7 • Number 4
Iranian Economic Warfare
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The Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals august/September 2014 Volume 7 • Number 4
COVER story:
36
contents
29
8
16
46
iranian economic warfare By Kevin D. Freeman
FEATURES: 08
Firsthand: the last days of the mcdonald’s gang By Larry Winston and Brian Davis Counterterrorism for Today’s Al Qaeda by Daiju Wada Case Study: John walker lindh and the pipeline to jihad By Walter Purdy South Asia: Facing a Challenging Security Transition By Srimal Fernando tularemia as a weapon By Jeffrey D Shuman
16 24
52 62 72
Umarov’s legacy and the future of the imirat kavkaz By Michael S. Toney Sri Lanka’s Rehabilitation Program: A New Frontier in Counter Terrorism and Counter Insurgency1 By Malkanthi Hettiarachchi
86
departments:
06 From the Editor We Don’t Negotiate 60 Book Review Comrade J 85 Innovative Products
Strategic Rifleman, LMT DMR Stock, Broco Jimmy
96 Training Review Vehicle Engagement Tactics
Cover Photo: After the Iranian hostage crisis (1979-1981), the walls of the former US embassy were covered in anti-US-murals. Photo by: Phillip Maiwald The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 5
Counter The
From The Editor:
We Don’t Negotiate By Chris Graham
Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals
Volume 7 • Number 4
O
n June 30, 2009, U.S. Army Private First Class Robert Bergdahl deserted and fell into the hands of the Taliban near the town of Yahya Kheyl in Paktika Province, Afghanistan. On May 31, 2014, The U.S. government traded five senior Taliban commanders in custody at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba for Bergdahl. This appears to have been a trade that the Taliban has proposed for years. Based on what we have seen in the past, we can expect these five to receive a hero’s welcome, be promoted and resume killing Americans and our allies. Does the timing of this trade have anything to do with the latest domestic scandal? As systemic corruption and incompetence at the Veteran’s Administration began to bubble to the surface, members of the public observed that Islamist terrorists in Guantanamo receive superior medical care to American combat veterans. Resistance to the unpopular “Affordable Care Act” stiffened as Americans gained their first glimpse of what government run healthcare looks like. As coincidental as the timing of this trade may be, the opportunity now exists to determine the full details of Bergdahl’s time with the Taliban. Of course, there is plenty of downside to the terrorist trade. The U.S. government’s claim not to negotiate with terrorists is now dead, just like so many other standards eliminated in the last few years. All adversaries in the world now have proof that if they can bring some leverage to bear against the U.S. government, they can get what they want. How many Americans do you think will be kidnapped in the coming year?
Semper Fidelis,
Chris Graham Editor, The Counter Terrorist www.30-10pistol.com
august/september 2014 Editor Chris Graham Director of Operations Sol Bradman Director of Advertizing Carmen Arnaes Production Assistants Giselle Manassa Melissa Berne Contributing Editors Kevin Freeman Jennifer Hesterman Richard Marquise Tom Nypaver Dean Olson Steve Young Graphic Design Morrison Creative Company Copy Editor Laura Town Advertising Sales Chris Bell Bell@homelandsecurityssi.com 305-632-2309 Publisher: Security Solutions International 13155 SW 134th St. • STE 103 Miami, Florida 33186
ISSN 1941-8639 The Counter Terrorist Magazine, Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals is published by Security Solutions International LLC, as a service to the nation’s First Responders and Homeland Security Professionals with the aim of deepening understanding of issues related to Terrorism. No part of the publication can be reproduced without permission from the publisher. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the authors represented and not necessarily the opinions of the publisher. Please direct all Editorial correspondence related to the magazine to: Security Solutions International SSI, 13155 SW 134th Street, Suite 103, Miami, Florida. 33186 or info@thecounterterroristmag.com The subscription price for 6 issues is $34.99 and the price of the magazine is $5.99. (1-866-573-3999) Fax: 1-786-573-2090. For article reprints, e-prints, posters and plaques please contact: PARS International Corp. Web: www.magreprints.com/quickquote.asp Email: reprints@parsintl.com Phone: 212-221-9595 • Fax: 212-221-9195 Please visit the magazine web site where you can also contact the editorial staff:
www.thecounterterrroristmag.com © 2014 Security Solutions International
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Firsthand:
the last days of the mcdonald’s gang
8 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Photo by: iboy daniel
By Larry Winston and Brian Davis
In August 1989, a series of McDonald’s fast food robberies took place in the city of Los Angeles. The suspects—three to four male Hispanics, wearing various types of facial covering and armed with blue steel revolvers and blue steel automatics—would force all employees into the rear portion of the store.
T
he suspects would then cover the victims’ eyes with duct tape and wrap duct tape around the victims’ wrists. On several occasions, plastic ties were used to bind the victims’ hands. The suspects would have one of the victims open the safe. If the safe had an inner door and no key was available, the suspects would force the door open with a hammer and chisel.
Most of the robberies occurred in the early morning hours, usually on a Monday with most of the weekend receipts in the safe. As the robberies continued into September and October of 1989, it became apparent that the suspects were familiar with McDonald’s operations due to some of the questions that they asked employees present during the
robbery. The suspects would also take keys from the employees and shut off alarms, open locked doors, and open safe doors. On several occasions, the suspects would follow the last employee leaving the business at closing (presumably the manager) to their home, kidnap them at gunpoint, return the victim to the business, and force the victim to open the store.
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 9
McDonald’s corporate security personnel contacted the L.A.P.D. Robbery/Homicide Division in late September 1989. McDonald’s security reported that two former employees were thought to be involved in as many as 25 robberies. Both had been former assistant managers at various stores before leaving the company in 1988. Many of the stores where these two men had worked had theft, burglary and robbery problems. One of the men was administered a polygraph. The polygraph examiner determined the man to be deceptive, giving conflicting statements. In mid-January 1990, Robbery/ Homicide contacted the Special Investigation Section, (SIS), with the above information. They provided photos of the two former employees along with a residence address for one of the men. Surveillance was conducted by SIS on six separate occasions with no unusual activity noted until February. On February 11, 1990, at approximately 2200 hours, SIS surveillance observed three male Hispanics (two formerly identified and a third unknown), exit a home, walk to a white Ford Granada parked in front of the location, and remove two large black duffle bags from the trunk. The suspects placed the bags into the trunk of a black Ford Thunderbird. All three then went back inside the home.
A short time later, four suspects exited the residence, entered the black Thunderbird, drove for approximately 40 minutes, and entered a McDonald’s parking lot located in the Sunland/ Tujunga area of Los Angeles. The suspects drove around to the rear of the restaurant and exited the property. They continued to drive slowly through the residential area located just north of the McDonald’s for 15 minutes, finally parking on a side street facing south, approximately 200 yards north of the business with a view of the front of the restaurant. The vehicle remained there for approximately 1-½ hours. During that period, SIS detectives on foot observed three suspects go to the trunk of the T-bird, put on additional clothing, and re-enter their vehicle. Additionally, Detective Larry Winston reported seeing the driver using binoculars to observe the front of the restaurant.
10 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
SIS trains to react to the actions of the suspects it follows, whether in a vehicle or on foot. In this case, it was apparent that the suspect’s actions were indicative of “casing” the location. The unit could not be sure that a robbery would occur, however. It has been our experience that many suspects perform a “dry run” and may not be prepared to commit the crime; therefore foot surveillance becomes an essential part of a successful observation in order to determine if a crime is occurring or if an arrest needs to be made. At approximately 0030 hours, 12 February 1990, the suspect vehicle
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relocated, parking facing westbound at the north curb of the major street. The vehicle was now parked directly across the street from the front doors of the restaurant, approximately 50 yards away. A short time later, SIS detectives observed one suspect exit the vehicle, cross the major street, walk to the Northwest corner of the restaurant, look into a window, and walk to the east parking lot of the restaurant looking all around. He then returned to his vehicle, entering the passenger side. Approximately 10 minutes later, two suspects exited their vehicle, repeating the previous actions. Both suspects returned to their vehicle. Approximately 30 minutes later, SIS detectives observed the suspects’ vehicle trunk open, followed by three suspects exiting their vehicle and reaching into the trunk area. The three suspects walked across the street to the restaurant, one positioned at the west
doors, out of the footman’s view, two at the rear service door. SIS detectives were on foot at various locations so as not to lose track of the suspect’s actions. Our primary concern was the two suspects at the rear service doors. In prior robberies the suspects had waited for the last employee to lock up, leave using the service doors, and then force the employee back inside to open the safe. The driver now exited his vehicle and walked to the west side of the business while periodically looking up and down the major street. SIS field supervisor Brian Davis was monitoring the divisional radio frequency and reported that a radio call “211 (robbery) suspects outside the McDonald’s” was just broadcast to patrol units in the area. Rather than have uniformed officers respond to a robbery call with plainclothes officers already present, Detective Davis advised
12 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
communications to cancel the uniformed response and that plainclothes detectives were already at the scene. Shortly thereafter, SIS detectives observed two suspects in the lobby of the restaurant. It was later determined that the suspects at the west door used a coat hanger to open one of the doors by pulling down on the door’s panic bar. This had never been reported as a method of entry, and if it had been seen by the SIS detectives and had they had time to move in, we would have made an arrest prior to their entry. One of the suspects now inside opened the service door at the rear. Now, all four suspects were in the business. Moments later, the driver returned to his vehicle’s trunk via the west door, removed a small toolbox, and re-entered the business. SIS detectives on foot closest to the restaurant reported hearing loud hammering noises coming from within the building. Detectives then observed the interior restaurant lights go off in a systematic pattern as the driver exited the business, placed the tool box and a dark bag into the trunk of his vehicle, entered the driver’s side of the vehicle, started his
An out-of-service Gold Line train stationed at the Atlantic station, East Los Angeles. Photo by: Tim Adams vehicle, and turned its lights on. Seconds later the remaining three suspects were observed running back to their vehicle. As the suspects were preparing to drive away, SIS Detectives performed a vehicle containment technique to prevent the vehicle from driving away. This technique is designed to surprise the suspects with overwhelming manpower and weaponry while they are contained in their vehicle. SIS detectives were armed with S&W 4506 .45s, 18" Remington 870s, and M1/A4 rifles with ACOG optics.
A minimum of four detectives are required, and based on circumstances as many as eight men have been used for this technique. Using and perfecting this technique has resulted in 97% of all vehicle containments conducted with a safe arrest and no shots fired. It has been demonstrated that once suspects enter their vehicle to drive off, they tend to relax for just a moment, believing that they are about to get away with their crime, and they can be isolated from the majority of bystanders. Timing is critical, though:
arrive too soon and the suspects will flee on foot, creating a foot pursuit and a possible running gun battle. Arrive too late, and the suspects will have driven off. On the morning of 12 February, several of the responding detectives observed the suspect in the left rear seat point a gun in the direction of one of the officers. Detectives opened fire. Three suspects died, and the fourth was critically wounded. Detectives entered the McDonald’s and rescued the manager, who had been
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 13
Detectives entered the McDonald’s and rescued the manager, who had been bound and gagged in the locked office area.
bound and gagged in the locked office area. The property from the robbery was recovered from the trunk of the suspect vehicle along with two replica .45 pellet guns. Two additional pellet guns were found in possession of two of the deceased suspects. The fourth suspect survived and was ultimately convicted for robbery and the
death of his three co-suspects as a result of their actions, which caused our officerinvolved shooting. No detectives were injured. It is interesting to note that this is not the first time SIS detectives have been confronted by suspects armed with pellet guns. The psychology of suspects who bring a pellet gun to a gunfight is itself a subject that has been written about many times. It is also worth noting that surveillance of suspects often does not allow detectives the opportunity to arrest the suspects prior to the crime being committed. Tactical concerns based on distance and locations of the suspects (in this case spread out over a large parking lot) may dictate that it would be safer for all involved, including victims, for officers to allow the suspects to commit the crime, let them leave the premises, and then make the arrest away from victims and bystanders. It can be extremely dangerous to allow uniformed officers to respond to a location where plainclothes detectives are already on scene in a fluid situation.
•
about the authors Mr. Winston’s 30 years of service with the Los Angeles Police Department includes 17 years with the Special Investigation Section (SIS) as a Detective Supervisor. He also served six years in a deep, long-term undercover investigation of terrorist organizations, and today provides instruction as a consultant (www.train2tail.com). Mr. Davis’ 35-year career with the Los Angeles Police Department includes 30 years in criminal surveillance and crime scene analysis with 19 years as team supervisor, including nine years of homicide investigations and general crime investigations. He served as supervisor of the Special Investigation Section (SIS), and now provides
14 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
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Counterterrorism for Today’s Al Qaeda Daiju Wada
16 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
While the US “War on Terror” is seemingly losing force with its planned withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of 2014, the number of groups and individuals who are affiliated with Al Qaeda are increasing. This calls for Al Qaeda’s internal structure to be reassessed and new measures of counterterrorism to be adopted accordingly.
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 17
Introduction: Al Qaeda Transformed After more than a decade since the 9/11 attacks, Al Qaeda continues to be perceived as a serious threat to international security. However, the group’s structure has transformed, and there is no consensus among experts as to who belongs to Al Qaeda or the extent of its influence. Some experts suggest that today’s Al Qaeda is a weakened ‘group’ headed by Ayman Zawahiri and his patrons, who are still in hiding in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, with many of its leaders having been killed by the continuous U.S-led military operations. As Marc Sageman claimed in “The Extremists Threat to the U.S. Homeland, “Al Qaeda is no longer seen as an existential threat to the West.” Conversely, in a January 2013 assessment, Bruce Reidel at Brookings insists that Al Qaeda still poses a l threat of international dimensions, although, the group itself has significantly evolved
Ten Countries with the Most Terrorist Attacks in 2012
from what it was when it carried out the 9/11 attacks. Al Qaeda is now increasingly being seen as a diversified franchised network. US intelligence agencies have reported that more attacks have occurred in many different parts of the world in recent years by groups and individuals that adhere to “Al Qaedaism” (see Figure 2). Thus, while there is no united classification for the present-day Al Qaeda, the fact that there have been more Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist attacks in recent years than in the first half of the last decade, is not disputed.
Al Qaeda Core, Affiliates and Allies Al Qaeda has complicated the threat landscape by its flexibility, adaptability and its ability to draw like-minded jihadist extremists to their network. According to the RAND Corporation (“The Extremists Threat to the U.S. Homeland,” today’s Al Qaeda threat is primarily three: “Al Qaeda core”, “Al Qaeda affiliates” and “Al Qaeda
allies”. Al Qaeda core, also referred to as ‘Central Al Qaeda’ or ‘Al Qaeda Central’, led by Ayman al-Zawahiri, now prefers to encourage followers in pursuing violent jihad rather than carrying out attacks by itself. While Al Qaeda core was behind the most provocative terrorist attacks such as 9/11, the neutralization of Osama bin Laden and other leaders and near exhaustion of its operations in Afghanistan have greatly limited to the operational space of Al Qaeda affiliates, allies or smaller jihadist groups which claim to act in the name of Al Qaeda. Then again, Al Qaeda core is still seen to have the motive and capability to carry out terrorist attacks, with the probability of it carrying out attacks through its global network. Indeed, Al Qaeda core has shown prowess in responding to factors affecting its internal and external organizational environment, and adapting its global strategy and network accordingly. Today’s Al Qaeda appears strong with an enhanced network, brand and ideology. Al Qaeda affiliates include Al Qaeda’s
Total Attacks
Total Killed
Total Average Number Average Number Wounded Killed per Attack Wounded per Attack
Pakistan
1404
1848
3643
1.32
2.59
Iraq
1271
2436
6641
1.92
5.23
Afghanistan
1023
2632
3715
2.57
3.63
India
557
231
559
0.41
1.00
Nigeria
546
1386
1019
2.54
1.87
Thailand
222
174
897
0.78
4.04
Yemen
203
365
427
1.80
2.10
Somalia
185
323
397
1.75
2.15
Philippines
141
109
270
0.77
1.91
Syria
133
657
1787
4.94
13.44
Ten Countries with the Most Terrorist Attacks in 2012 Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report,, http://csis.org/files/publication/130709_non_war_against_non_terrorism.pdf
18 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Al Qaeda’s Transnational Network Image source: RAND Corporation report , http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT300/CT396-1/RAND_CT39-1.pdf
three regional branches which carry its name: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is considered to be the most serious threat to US security, as it has revealed intention and capability to launch attacks on US soil. AQAP presently exploits Yemen’s poor socio-economic conditions - the worst in the Middle East - to gain influence over its population affected by issues such as poverty, unemployment and discrimination. AQAP’s tactics include providing financial support to segments of the population. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) constitutes the Maghreb countries, i.e. Algeria, Mali, Niger and Mauritania. Political governance and police patrols are
critically poor in this region. Although AQIM’s ability to carry out attacks regionally has been limited compared to AQAP, AQIM has expanded its area of operation in recently years and built relations of transnational cooperation with Islamist extremists in Nigeria, Tunisia and possibly Somalia. Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has consistently increased the number of attacks carried out annually since the collapse of Saddam Hussein‘s regime in 2003. The attacks peaked in 2006-2007, and reduced in the years that followed, possibly due to the then US strategy to strengthen cooperation with segments of the Sunni population. While the US presence in Iraq ended in 2011, AQI terrorism has become resurgent in Iraq with increased attacks. Al Qaeda affiliates also include groups such as Al Nusra in Syria and
Al Shabaab in Somalia, which swear allegiance to Al Qaeda core. These groups operate independently but share Al Qaeda’s objective of building an Islamic caliphate (Islamic state) and exchange information with Al Qaeda core. Al Qaeda allies include Salafi-jihadist groups, which do not call themselves Al Qaeda and whose leaders have not sworn allegiance themselves to Al Qaeda. They are essentially local groups or organizations with localized goals. Their operations remain independent, but they work with Al Qaeda on specific campaigns, where their objectives meet with that of Al Qaeda. At the same time, there is evidence that Al Qaeda has infiltrated some of these local groups and provides them with financial and logistical support. Examples of Al Qaeda allies receiving support from Al Qaeda
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 19
TRAINING AND CERTIFICATION
Are we ready for the next wave of terror? Are we just fighting the war of the past or preparing for future threats as well? See like the enemy, think like the adversary. Understand the mind set and Modus operandi of global terrorism.
MANAGED BY
ENDORSED BY
20 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
ACCREDITED BY
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core include Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) in Indonesia, Abu Sayyaf Group in the Philippines, Boko Haram in Nigeria and the Caucasus Emirate (CE) in Russia. Al Qaeda joins with a local Salafi-jihadist group with the aim of building an Al Qaeda presence and network in the particular country or region.
Measures to Contain Al Qaeda(-ism) It is increasingly difficult to find the difference between the threat coming from Al Qaeda core and the groups which adhere to its ideology, which Prof. Thomas Hegghammer of calls “ideological hybridization”. Thus, counterterrorism measures should focus on the violent localized conflicts afflicted
or influenced by Al Qaeda terrorism, and they should ideally be multilateral and international in scope to contain the transnational threat.
International Assistance in Syria Syria is conflict theatre of immediate concern as it has become a magnet for Al Qaeda and other jihadist extremists groups, including many foreign fighters. As such, it is imperative to strengthen ‘border security’ between Syria-Iraq and Syria-Turkey: the two borders which provide entrance into Syria for foreign jihadist extremists. It is a critical time for international assistance in Syria in this manner. According to the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation
and Political Violence (ICSR) in London, more than 11,000 individuals from 74 countries came to Syria to join activities of jihadist groups of about 55% joined the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) jihadist terror group and 14% joined Al Qaeda’s affiliate Al Nusra. Another measure to prevent the physical entry of jihadist elements to Syria is by strengthening immigration checks for air passengers to Syria, especially likely foreigners, but also its own citizens. National and regional measures must also be taken to counter the online threat posed by Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups in propagating its ideologies through online forums. It is believed that foreign fighters are being recruited by online means by some jihadist
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 21
groups in Syria. Thus, the monitoring of jihadist forums and websites is a necessary measure in which Syrian counter-terrorism units should be aided by countries from which foreign fighters are being recruited. Such multilateral cooperation is also required to counter the threat in Syria in monitoring foreign fighters returning from Syria to host and other countries, as returning fighters pose an increased threat, having had direct contact and operational training with Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups in Syria. Returning foreign fighters also pose an international threat in case of their future regrouping.
International and Regional Assistance to Sahel-Saharan (Maghreb) Countries The Sahel-Saharan states such as Mali, Niger and Mauritania which are part of the Islamic Maghreb are poverty-stricken and otherwise underdeveloped. Increased direct international assistance through international organizations such as United Nations development organizations and international non-governmental organizations will reduce the influence terror groups such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) - which have begun to provide public services to local populations to win them over. International and African multilateral assistance is also required in providing security reinforcements to protect the countries’ long borders along the Sahara Dessert, as jihadist groups such as AQIM and Al Murabitun move freely in these areas. The national authorities of these countries lack the resources to patrol these regions.
International Assistance to Strengthen Local Governance and for a Global Campaign in Counter-Ideology The international community and forces should work towards strengthening popular governments, or non-extremist insurgencies where applicable, so as to detach Al Qaeda affiliates and other terror groups from affected countries. As observed in Iraq’s case in 2007, US military strategy to cooperate with Sunni groups such as the Awakening Council and Sons of Iraq weakened Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)’s hold considerably at the time. As today’s Al Qaeda affiliates and allies depend on their respective local population for survival, constructive international assistance and cooperation should be extended to local governments which are battling against terrorism and extremism in their lands. Al Qaeda core’s power essentially lies in its ideology presently, and in recent years there has been a dramatic increase in Islamic extremists that subscribe to what some call “Al Qaedaism.” Therefore, international assistance should also be provided to strengthen counter-ideology efforts in countries affected by Al Qaeda and jihadist ideology. This can be in the form of strengthening Islamic Studies courses in local universities and schools as well as in conducting deradicalization programs such as the like followed in Singapore, Sri Lanka or Saudi Arabia, for those who have already been exposed to radical ideology. Finally, international funding is required in building and sustaining a large-scale counter-ideology presence online to counter the increasing jihadist activity online. This
22 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
‘Anti-Al Qaeda’ global campaign would include the promotion and celebration of Islam in its pure form.
Conclusion Al Qaeda has transformed to challenge the global community in a new way. Today’s Al Qaeda with a more complicated structure cannot be dismantled in the short-term. The emergence of Al Qaeda affiliates and allies have strengthened the overall Al Qaeda operation not only in carrying out attacks, but also in information exchange and intelligence sharing. Since the 9/11 attacks, Al Qaeda has used its brand name as a tool to build closer relations with other Islamic extremists and to attract financial and military support from international Islamist organizations. Thus, Al Qaeda remains a serious threat to the national security of many countries. Consequently, the international community must concentrate on strategic, ‘soft’ long-term strategies to contain the Al Qaeda as it exists today. Primarily international assistance is required to strengthen local governments and improve socio-economic conditions in countries where Al Qaeda affiliates and allies have taken root. Immediate assistance is required in Syria as the conflict continues to fester due to Al Qaeda and other jihadist terrorism. A global effort is also required in developing a full-scale counter-ideology campaign online to effectively offset the jihadist forums and websites.
About the author Daiju Wada is a Lecturer at the Seiwa University and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Gifu Women’s University. She can be reached at mrshinyuri@yahoo.co.jp.
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Case Study:
John Walker Lindh
and the Pipeline to Jihad “What’s your name? Who brought you here? How did you get here? Why are you here?” Mike Spann, November 25, 2001
24 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Photo by: LoggaWiggler
By Walter Purdy
Thirteen years ago in the southern courtyard of Qala-i-Jangi prison in Northern Afghanistan, Mike Spann, a CIA case officer, asked these questions of a captured fighter. Spann thought the long-haired, pale-skinned prisoner wearing a British military-style sweater might be a member of the IRA.
L
ittle did he know that the man he was attempting to question was an American from Marin County, California.2 At no time did this trained fighter answer Spann or tell him he was an American fighting with the Taliban. John Walker Lindh was born in
Washington, DC on February 9, 1981. As a child his family lived in middle income neighborhoods in Takoma Park and Silver Springs. The family moved to San Anselmo, California when he was ten. Six years later he converted to Islam, began wearing Middle Eastern clothing,
John Walker Lindh in custody. Photo by: American military personnel
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 25
A registration form for Harkat’s Khalid bin Whalid training camp. The form says ‘‘Jihad’’ on the top of the page, and common Islamic prayers cover the group’s seal. The form asks for a recruit’s name, age, nationality, religious education, code name, skills, languages, military experience and blood type. Photo by: Unknown
and started using the name Suleyman al-Lindh. His family afforded him the opportunity to travel to Yemen to study Arabic and Islam.3 Lindh spent time studying at al Iman University (Faith University) in Sanaa, Yemen, operated by Sheikh Abdul Majid al-Zindani,
26 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
a supporter of Usama bin Laden.4 In December 2000, Lindh traveled to Bannu, Pakistan to study at the Madrassa al Arabia. In May 2001, Lindh left the madrassa and attended a training camp run by Harakat ul-Mujahidin. He then attended al-Qaeda’s al Farooq training camp.5 After meeting Usama bin Laden he fought for the Taliban in Northern Afghanistan until the group he was with surrendered. Mike Spann would become the first American casualty in Afghanistan not long after questioning Lindh. Taliban prisoners rose up against their Northern Alliance guards and started an uprising, gaining control of weapons and fighting for a week. On December 2, 2001, Robert Pelton, a CNN journalist, was informed that 18 fighters from the Qala-i-Jangi uprising were taken to the hospital and one of them was an American. Surprised by this news, Pelton and a Special Forces medic raced over to the hospital and discovered an injured John Walker Lindh.6 Pelton’s video of his interaction with Lindh was the first that anyone knew that there was an American fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Robert Pelton captured Lindh’s mindset when he asked “Was this the right cause and the right place?” Lindh responded, “This is exactly what I thought it would be.”7 After enduring a week of bombardment and fighting, that was where John Walker Lindh wanted to be. Lindh was not the first American to convert to Islam, travel to Afghanistan and train in the camps. I have had the opportunity to spend time with the first American who travelled to Afghanistan and trained in the Khalid bin Walid camp.8 Aqil Collins, a young convert to Islam from California, shared a tent in the training camp with Omar Sheikh, who would later kidnap American journalist Danny Pearl. After
Aqil completed his training he traveled to Chechnya and waged jihad against the Russians. Aqil’s jihad was cut short when he stepped on a landmine and lost his right leg.9 The questions that Mike Spann asked John Walker Lindh are the same questions that need to be asked today of Americans waging jihad in places like Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, and Syria. Often a recruiter will manipulate, motivate and radicalize Americans to travel abroad and fight jihad. Other times, individuals will radicalize themselves, often using the Internet to accomplish this task. More often than not, there are others who participate in the recruiting, radicalization, and raising money for travel to train for jihad. One such recruiter, Omer Abdi Mohamed, put together a terrorist pipeline that stretched from Minneapolis DIRECTOR PATROL SERGEANT POLICE CHIEF OF POLICE POLICE SERGEANT DETECTIVE SERGEANT POLICE LIEUTENANT POLICE CAPTAIN DETECTIVE SERGEANT EMS DIRECTOR POLICE CHIEF
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Often a recruiter will manipulate, motivate and radicalize Americans to travel abroad and fight jihad.
Aqil Collins, a young convert to Islam from California. Photo by: Dominique Mainon
to Mogadishu.10 Much of the recruitment took place at the Abubakar As-Saddique Islamic Center and the Cedar Square public housing complex known as “Little Mogadishu.” Before departing, the individuals would listen to Anwar al Awlaki’s lecture Constants on the Path of Jihad.11 Others raised money to pay for travel and weapons for the fighters. Some went door to door collecting money under false pretenses from Somali-Americans, while others donated funds to purchase weapons and provide for fighters.
28 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
In 2007, the first group of radicalized Somali-Americans traveled to fight with al Shabaab (which means “the youth” in Arabic). Shirwa Ahmed was part of the first group of Americans that traveled from Minneapolis. On October 28, 2008, Ahmed became the first known suicide bomber from America when he drove a Toyota truck packed with explosives into the Puntland Intelligence Service (PIS) compound in Bosaso, Puntland.12 It appears that on September 17, 2009, Omar Mohamud, from Seattle, became
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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 29
the second American suicide bomber. Driving a stolen white United Nations vehicle, he was able to detonate at the AMISOM Headquarters at the airport.12 On May 30, 2011, another American from the Twin Cities, Farah Mohamed Beledi, armed with a suicide bomb vest, was killed before he was able to detonate at a government checkpoint. Abdisalan Hussein Ali’s family had fled the fighting in Somalia and spent time living in a refugee camp in Kenya. The family was
30 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
able to finally move to Seattle in 2000. They later moved to Minneapolis, where Ali graduated from Edison High School, the home of the “Tommies.” The former University of Minnesota student became the third known American suicide bomber on October 29, 2011.13 Since 2006, over 100 individuals have traveled to Somalia from America to wage jihad. Probably the most noted American to join al Shabaab was Omar Hammami. Hammami went from the Jubilee City of Daphne, Alabama, to waging jihad in Somalia. Growing up, Omar and his sister were raised as Baptists like his mother and attended the Perdido Baptist Church. Omar played soccer, had a basketball hoop in the driveway, and listened to Nirvana. Omar converted to Islam and went to
Toronto, where he married a Somalian wife. In 2006, he arrived in Somalia and quickly rose in importance within al Shabaab due to his computer skills and his ability to put together media and propaganda. Omar, known by his kunya Abu Mansoor al Amriki, came to the attention of two al-Qaeda operatives, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed and Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan.14 Under their leadership, Abu Mansoor al Amriki put out a number of propaganda videos and conducted a number of interviews for al Shabaab. Many of his efforts led to recruitment of a number of English speaking fighters. Abu Mansoor al Amriki wrote about his life and journey to Somalia in The Story of an American Jihadi: Part One.15 He writes of his conversion to Islam and how he “began reading more Salafi books and
articles.”16 During his time in Somalia with al Shabaab, the American fighter from Daphne, Alabama had contact with numerous foreign fighters. He stated that “those Minnesota Brothers have almost all left their mark on the Jihad and many have received martyrdom; while the rest are still waiting.”17 Disputes with the leadership of al Shabaab led to a number of false reports of his death. But Ahmed Abdi Godane was on a mission to remove anyone who questioned his authority within al Shabaab. On September 12, 2013, Omar Hammami was killed along with a British jihadi, Usama al Britani. From Hammami’s Twitter account came the following: “We confirm the martyrdom of Omar Hammami in the morning of Thur 12 2013.”18 A fellow jihadi with access to Hammami’s Twitter account tweeted that Omar “was killed because he refused to bow down to Godane’s deviation from shariah.”19 Unfortunately, the list of Americans who have traveled to fight jihad continues to grow. Robert Mueller, the former director of the FBI, speaking about Americans who had gone to Somalia to fight, stated, “it raises the question of whether these young men will one day come home, and, if so, what might they undertake here.”20 Today, Americans can use social media to gain access to information and “follow” any number of jihadis who are fighting in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen and Syria. Terrorist groups use English language social media to recruit and radicalize potential American fighters. We have seen a number of American fighters who have taken selfies and created digital propaganda of themselves posing with various weapons on international battlefields. These Internet-based technologies are just some of the tools that are being used by terrorist groups to recruit and radicalize Americans.
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 31
Since the Syria conflict escalated in 2011, over 75 Americans have traveled to fight in Syria. Nicole Lynn Mansfield, a convert to Islam, from Flint, Michigan, was killed in Syria last year. Eric Harroun, a former soldier from Phoenix, Arizona, fought in Syria. On May 25, 2014, a video was posted by Jabhat al-Nusrait that announced Abu Hurayra al Amriki had carried out a suicide bombing attack on Syrian forces in Idlib. The video showed Abusalha loading a truck with explosives and driving off to conduct the attack. Moner Mohammad Abusalha had taken the kunya Abu Hurayra and now has the distinction of being the first known American suicide bomber in Syria. He grew up in a gated community in Vero Beach playing basketball.
32 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Today, the same questions Mike Spann asked 13 years ago might have been asked of this Florida native, or of the Virginia Five who went to Pakistan for jihad, or the Lackawanna Six, or those who travel to Yemen, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq to wage jihad. Who brought you here? How did you get here? Why are you here?�21
•
About the Author Walter Purdy is the President of the Terrorism Research Center, Inc., a Virginia-based company that provides cutting-edge training and research on terrorism, counterinsurgency, and homeland security issues. His book, Blue Mako Five: Exploits in Counter Terrorism will be published this fall.
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Endnotes
Transcript of Robert Young Pelton Video Qala-i-Jangi Prison Uprising and John Walker Lindh Interview. 8 Aukai “Aqil” Collins, Interview by Author, Phoenix, AZ, January 28-29, 2002. 9Aukai “Aqil” Collins, Interview by Author, Washington, DC, January 9, 2003. 10 FBI Press Release, Minneapolis Man Pleads Guilty to Terror Offense, July 18, 2011. 11 Interview with Unnamed Law Enforcement Officer, Minneapolis, MN, June 8, 2010. 12 TRC Study of Significant Worldwide Suicide Bombings, p. 37, March 2013. 13 Ibid. p.42. 14 Elliott, Andrea, The Jihadist Next Door, New York Times, January 27, 2010 7
Transcript of Robert Young Pelton Video Qala-i-Jangi Prison Uprising and John Walker Lindh Interview 2 Robert Young Pelton, Interview by Author, May 2006 3 Terrorism Research Center Inc., TRC Report: The Path of John Walker Lindh From California to Jihad, March 24, 2012 4 Timothy Roche, Brian Bennett, Anne Berryman, Hilary Hylton, Siobhan Morrissey and Amany Radwan, Time, The Making of John Walker Lindh, October 7, 2007 5 U.S. Department of Justice Indictment: United States v. John Phillip Walker Lindh: February 5, 2002 6 Robert Young Pelton, Interview by Author, May 2006. 1
Abu Mansuur al-Amriiki, The Story of An American Jihaadi Part One, accessed at http://azelin.files.wordpress. com/2012/05/omar-hammami-abc5abmane1b9a3c5abr-al-amrc4abkc4ab22the-story-of-an-americanjihc481dc4ab-part-122.pdf 16 Ibid, p. 18. 17 Ibid, p. 122. 18 Unknown Person Tweeted from Abum@abumamerican (September 15, 2013) retrieved June 6, 2014 from https://twitter.com/abuamerican. 19 Ibid, September 28 2013. 20 Johnston, David, Militants Drew Recruits in US, FBI Says, New York Times, February 23, 2009. 21 Transcript of Robert Young Pelton Video Qala-i-Jangi Prison Uprising and John Walker Lindh Interview 15
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Iranian Economic Warfare President Barack Obama talks with President Hassan Rouhani of Iran during a phone call in the Oval Office, Sept. 27, 2013. Photo by: Pete Souza 36 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
by Kevin D. Freeman
The United States has been in an economic war with the Islamic Republic of Iran in one form or another since the 1979 hostage crisis.1 This war intensified in 2007 when President George W. Bush ordered sanctions designed to force Iran to give up nuclear ambitions.2
T
he sanctions were increased multiple times under President Obama. According to The New American: “David Axelrod, senior advisor to the president, said on ABC’s This Week on March 4th of this year [2012] that the president had
succeeded in “bringing the entire world together over the last few years with the most withering economic sanctions that have ever been administered against any country.” On August 1st, both the House and Senate approved even more
sanctions, which the president signed into law.3” There should be little doubt as to whether the sanctions were serious or powerful. Yet, there should be substantial doubt with regard to whether or not the sanctions have been effective in terms
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 37
Vice President George Bush and other VIP's wait to welcome the former hostages from Iran home. Photo by: Templeton
Recently freed Americans held hostage by Iran disembark Freedom One, an Air Force VC-137 Stratoliner aircraft, upon their arrival. Photo by: Don Koralewski
38 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
of achieving their primary objective. In fact, some observers believe that the Iranians matched the United States in the economic war, albeit at great cost. We threw everything at them, inflicting “a currency collapse, hyperinflation, and a bank run and… caused a scarcity of food, gasoline and consumer goods, through the expedient of cutting Iran out of the global payments system.”4 Despite this, we have seen no real evidence of slowdown in Iranian nuclear development and the government remains as defiant as ever. Even if the Obama administration would like to credit the sanctions process for bringing Iran into negotiations,
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta tells the audience at the Saban Forum, held at the Willard Hotel in Washington, D. C. on Dec. 2, 2011, that the United States and its allies and partners in the international community must do everything possible to make sure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. Photo by: R. D. Ward/Released the truth may be much less flattering. According to the Los Angeles Times: “Sanctions did not bring Iran to the table. Not only Iranian officials but other undeniably objective observers concur that the reason negotiations have commenced is emphatically not because Iran could endure the pain no longer.
‘Total nonsense,’ scoffed former U.S. Ambassador William Miller when I put the question to him. Miller has closely monitored Iranian affairs since he was stationed in that country in the 1960s, and has close contacts with the current leadership. “Sanctions only made them more
defiant,” and they always had ways of getting around them. The deal that’s being discussed now is almost exactly the same one the Iranians offered back in 2003—full transparency on their nuclear program, but recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium.5”
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 39
Iran concluded negotiations about nuclear capabilities on November 2013. Photo by: U.S. Department of State from United States
Iranian Nuclear Negotiators. Photo by: Dragan Tatic This is one of the great untold stories of the past few years, at least untold in the American media. Iran, with an economy equal to a little over 3% of that of the United States,6 and roughly the size of New Jersey7, went toe-to-toe against the
economic might of the United States and remained standing. The failure to provide a knockout punch, however, risks damaging American credibility at a crucial time when financial warfare and sanctions appear to be the only
40 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
instruments of power that the current administration is willing to deploy in an increasingly complex world.8 The United States backed down on the sanctions and accepted a 10-year-old Iranian proposal that had been repeatedly rejected by both
Anti-aircraft guns guarding Natanz Nuclear Facility, Iran. Photo by: Hamed Saber Presidents Bush and Obama. We loosened sanctions without getting anything new in return. Quoting James Rickards, author of “The Death of Money”: “Iran had fought the United States to a standstill in its financial war,
despite enormous disruption to the Iranian economy. The U.S.-Iranian financial war of 2012–13 illustrates how nations that could not stand up to the United States militarily could prove a tough match when the
battlefield is financial or electronic.9” To be clear, there has been considerable collateral damage inflicted upon the Iranian people, but not all of Iran has suffered. In fact, the leadership, especially the “supreme leader” Khamenei and his
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 41
Vladimir Putin answered journalists’ questions on the situation in Ukraine (2014-03-04). Photo by: The Presidential Press and Information Office
supporters, actually found ways to enrich themselves and further consolidate power during the sanctions.10 One Reuter’s estimate suggests that a single entity controlled by Khamenei has a value approaching $100 billion.11 The wealth is largely based on seized assets, some of which were achieved under the cover of sanctions.12 The holdings are largely secret and subject almost exclusively to Khamenei’s control, thus wielding tremendous power and influence even in a country potentially rocked by division. To understand the context, the roughly $95 billion of wealth controlled by
Khamenei is about 40% greater than the total annual oil exports from Iran. It also is a powerful base of funds from which retaliatory economic warfare might be launched. Some estimate this to be far in excess of the wealth controlled by the Shah at his peak prior to the 1979 revolution that deposed him.13
How Iran Survived Sanctions The simple answer to how Iran could survive under sanctions is that they learned to operate without using the
42 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
dollar. By instituting new payment arrangements as well as utilizing centuries-old mechanisms, Iran found a way to buy and sell without access to American-controlled systems.14 They used gold,15 barter,16 non-dollar currencies, and hawala17 (an ancient Arabic method of transferring funds) to circumvent controls. According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (as quoted in The Cornerstone Report): “The hawala system can be utilized by criminal organizations to transfer funds in or out of a country with little or no detection
by law enforcement. Hawalas allow the transfer of millions, if not billions of dollars tracked only by a secret code and disposable scraps of paper. Transfers of money take place based on communications between members of a network of hawaladars…18” Oil for gold also became commonplace in significant transactions with Turkey and India, among others. The growth in gold trade became so significant that the United States attempted to enforce a gold ban on Iran in July 2013.19 When the gold trade tightened, Iran began processing sales in other non-dollar currencies. Although less convenient than the dollar-based system, it was ultimately effective and exposed the reality that there are other currencies in the world. In some cases, it actually provided a convenience to not have to convert currencies back to dollars for trade. The Iranians also worked through Chinese and Russian banks that served as fronts for them to the international system. Iran had used Western banks for this purpose during the Bush administration, but the banks were caught and had to pay stiff penalties.20 Chinese banks supported some $40 billion in transactions, largely avoiding the political pressure because of the political complications for the U.S. Russian, Turkish, and Indian banks also supported Iranian oil sales in spite of U.S. sanctions.21 Even British banks had found it difficult to turn down the profits associated with helping Iran circumvent American sanctions. Standard Chartered was responsible for $250 billion in transactions, and when caught paid over $300 million in fines.22 Interestingly,
British resentment of American sanctions can be summed up in the following email comment quoted from Reuters: “You fucking Americans. Who are you to tell us that we’re not going to deal with Iranians.23” It’s one thing to quietly attempt to go around the sanctions. It’s quite another, however, to boldly reject them. Yet, that is precisely what Vladimir Putin’s Russia did in a multi-billion dollar deal announced in advance of the Winter Olympics.24 This was perhaps foreshadowing of how Putin would respond to American complaints after seizing Crimea. Even after the negotiated agreement allowed increased Iranian oil shipments, the Islamic Republic has found creative ways to blow past the limits.25 There seems to be little, if any interest in abiding by the watered-down agreements.
Implications Going Forward One of the consequences has been the exposure of American weakness. Once Iran demonstrated that it could survive, despite serious hardship, without the dollar-based system, others took notice. Many accurately expected the sanctions approach to fail or at least fall far short of its objectives. I made the following observation in my blog on February 22, 2012: “The economic weapon the government is using against Iran is sadly exposing our greatest vulnerability. In essence, to punish Iran for continued nuclear development, we have threatened to deprive them of access to the U.S. dollar. That is a serious threat and has serious implications for the domestic Iranian economy. The
The problem is that at the end of the day, the world may prefer to have their oil rather than our paper.
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 43
problem is that at the end of the day, the world may prefer to have their oil rather than our paper. Certainly that is what the market is telling us as the price of oil in dollars has been rising. Given the global situation, do we remain so arrogant as to believe that the world prefers American paper to oil from any source? At a minimum, we know that the amount of American paper available (whether in the form of currency or Treasury debt) has and continues to grow exponentially while the amount of available oil reserves are reasonably stagnant (at least by comparison). Add to this the fact that oil has enormous use and the demand for it will grow markedly over the long term. As for American paper? Nearly every major nation of the world including our best trading partners have begun to question (some publicly, some privately) its longterm usefulness.26” Frighteningly, I wasn’t alone in this observation. In fact, it almost seemed as if the defeat of sanctions was part of a larger plan being instituted with the
involvement of Russia, China, and the BRICS nations to de-Americanize the world and destroy the dollar.27 Putin has long been close to Iran and sympathized with their position regarding dollarbased attacks.28 When the United States cut Iran off from dollar-based transactions, the Russians helped build alternative payment systems that in turn undermined the dollar. Then, when sanctions were placed against Russia, Putin requested Iranian assistance in circumventing them.29 The Islamic world was also watching closely as sanctions were imposed, with some expecting their failure to expose American weakness. Consider this from February 2012, “How Iran Changed the World” in al-Akhbar, a daily Arabiclanguage newspaper: “Imagine: Iran stops selling oil to the EU; China tells the US to take a hike on currency values; India starts trading in large quantities of rupees; Russia’s central bank becomes a depot for holding dollars that don’t need to pass through New York; the creation of a global payment messaging system competing
44 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
with SWIFT. Now imagine that a combination of actions—triggered only by an attempt to circumvent some really very silly sanctions—can suddenly unleash some unexpected possibilities that were beyond the realm of imagination a mere few years ago. Imagine the emergence, say, of regional economic hubs, powered by the currencies of the local hegemonic powers, where bartering natural resources, goods and services becomes as commonplace as transactions involving currency transfers. Because of the frailty inherent in dealing with these new local currencies and a bartering system, nations tend to trade most with those closest to them in geography and culture. Shocking? Maybe not. Sometimes it just takes a need for change... and a handy tipping point. “This is not the time to fan the flames,” someone should have told the United States. “You and your pals are sitting in a jalopy tottering on the cliff’s edge — why
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risk making moves now?” they should have warned. “Be a little less arrogant”… But Washington is absolutely, irrevocably, dangerously fixated on showing Iran who’s boss, and spends a good part of every day trying to tighten the screws around the Islamic Republic. For the most part, the US’s pursuit of this dubious objective has instead stripped it of the vital political tools it once wielded. No more UN Security Council resolutions, no more unscrutinized military adventures. The only thing left is the nefarious tentacles of the United States Department of Treasury and its financial weapons.30 Unfortunately, the “Almighty Dollar” has been shown to be mortal after all. Sanctions were unable to achieve their objective and the world has seen it. With the Russian conflict over the Ukraine, the issue has become increasingly serious.”
Cyber Battles Of course, sanctions, oil sales, and currency battles are just part of the
economic war already underway. Iran has borrowed from the Unrestricted Warfare playbook and created combination efforts built around a cyber strategy.31 The Iranians coordinated specific attacks directly targeting American banks as retaliation for economic sanctions. Even the largest banks were found to be vulnerable to disruption and the tactics were beyond what had been previously experienced.32 This shouldn’t be a surprise. Iran has built a very sophisticated hacking network. According to Foreign Policy: “In March 2012, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, the Supreme Leader of Iran, publicly announced the creation [of ] a new Supreme Council of Cyberspace to oversee the defense of the Islamic republic’s computer networks and develop new ways of infiltrating or attacking the computer networks of its enemies. Less than two years later, security experts and U.S. intelligence, officials are alarmed by how quickly Iran has managed to develop its cyber warfare capabilities—and by how much it’s willing to use them.33”
Anti-American mural in the Iranian capital Tehran. Photo by: Ali Abbas
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The Iranians have become a “firsttier cyber power.”34 They have launched sophisticated attacks against military websites. It took four months and $10 million to clear Iranian penetration from the Navy Marine Corps Intranet.35 The Iranians also penetrated major energy networks and control systems with the potential to damage or sabotage pipelines, energy distribution, and the electric grid.36 A disruption in any of these areas has the potential to create catastrophic economic and human costs. Iranian cyber efforts have also targeted U.S. officials to seek intelligence, undermine sanctions and detect vulnerabilities. This is an extraordinarily broad effort: utilizing Facebook, fake emails, password theft, and other clandestine tactics to augment more direct attacks.37 Iran has developed a cyber army intended to win 21st Century wars. It is also responding to the cyber capabilities reportedly demonstrated by the United States and Israel that disabled 1,000 centrifuges used to enrich uranium: the so-called Stuxnet virus attack.38 The Iranians adapted to alleged U.S. government attacks and developed their own capabilities with frightening speed.
This is War The Iranian leadership has made it clear that it is preparing for a multi-phased war with the United States using physical, economic and cyber means. After decades of Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks, there is now sufficient evidence to conclude that the war is underway in the economic and cyber realms as well. The American reduction of sanctions in response to a promise of transparency regarding nuclear development is only
a slight detour in direction, not a pathway to ending conflict. We cannot be complacent. The government of Iran was not beaten by sanctions and remains as defiant as ever. It was just February when the “supreme leader” Khamenei openly called for his cyber hacking units to prepare for war.39 By May, despite the promise of eased tensions, Khamenei was calling for renewed jihad “until America was no more.”40 We face a number of national security challenges. Economic war with Iran is certainly among the most serious.
•
About the author Mr. Freeman (CFA) is the author of Secret Weapon: How Economic Terrorism Brought Down the U.S. Stock Market (www.secretweapon.org) and Game Plan: Your Secret Weapon to Protect Yourself From Economic Attack (Regnery, 2014). He authors the blog: www. globaleconomicwarfare.com.
ENdNotes “UN Sanctions Against Iran.” Global Policy Forum. GPF, n.d. Web. June 2014. <http://www.globalpolicy.org/securitycouncil/index-of-countries-on-thesecurity-council-agenda/iran.html>. 2 Mohammed, Arshad, Justyna Pawlak, and Warren Strobel. “Special Report: Inside the West’s economic war with Iran.” Reuters. N.p., 18 Dec. 2012. Web. June 2014. <http://www.reuters.com/ article/2012/12/28/us-iran-sanctionsidUSBRE8BR04620121228 >. 3 Kenny, Jack. “Sanctions: The Economic War on Iran.” The New American. N.p., 13 Nov. 2012. Web. June 2014. <http://www.thenewamerican. com/usnews/foreign-policy/item/13486sanctions-the-economic-war-on-iran >. 1
46 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Wiggin, Addison. “How Gold Helped Iran Withstand U.S. Financial Fury.” Forbes. N.p., 23 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/ greatspeculations/2014/05/23/how-goldhelped-iran-withstand-u-s-financial-fury/ >. 5 Cockburn, Andrew. “Why sanctions don’t really work.” Los Angeles Times. N.p., 19 Mar. 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://articles.latimes.com/2014/ mar/19/opinion/la-oe-cockburnsanctions-20140320 >. 6 “Iran.” The World Bank. N.p., n.d. Web. June 2014. <http://www.worldbank.org/ en/country/iran >. 7 “Current-Dollar GDP by State, 20092012.” US Bureau of Economic Analysis. N.p., 6 June 2013. Web. June 2014. <http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/ industry/gsp/gsp_statec.xls >. 8 Griffin, Christopher. “The War of Wills Between U.S. and Iran.” Real Clear World. N.p., 8 Feb. 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.realclearworld.com/ articles/2014/02/08/the_war_of_wills_ between_us_and_iran_110280.html>. 9 Wiggin, Addison. “How Gold Helped Iran Withstand U.S. Financial Fury.” Forbes. N.p., 23 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/ greatspeculations/2014/05/23/how-goldhelped-iran-withstand-u-s-financial-fury/ >. 10 “To expand Khamenei’s grip on the economy, Iran stretched its laws.” Reuter Investigates. Reuters, 13 Nov. 2013. Web. June 2014. <http://www.reuters.com/ investigates/iran/#article/part3>. 11 Stecklow, Steve, Babak Dehghanpisheh, and Yeganeh Torbati. “Khamenei’s conglomerate thrived as sanctions squeezed Iran.” Reuters Investigates. Reuters, 12 Nov. 2013. Web. 4
June 2014. <http://www.reuters.com/ investigates/iran/#article/part2>. 12S tecklow, Steve, Babak Dehghanpisheh, and Yeganeh Torbati. “Khamenei controls massive financial empire built on property seizures.” Reuters Investigates. Reuters, 11 Nov. 2013. Web. June 2014. <http://www.reuters.com/ investigates/iran/#article/part1 >.
June 2014. <http://www.forbes.com/ sites/greatspeculations/2014/05/23/howgold-helped-iran-withstand-u-s-financialfury/>. 20 Bajaj, Vikas, and John Eligon. “Iran Moved Billions via U.S. Banks.” The New York Times. N.p., 9 Jan.
2009. Web. June 2014. <http://www. nytimes.com/2009/01/10/business/ worldbusiness/10bank.html?_r=0 >. 21 Wouk, Joseph. “Iran’s $40 billion Transfers to Chinese Banks Sidestep Financial Isolation.” A Sclerotic Goes to War. Wordpress, 23 Mar. 2012. Web. June
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“Iranian banks bypass electronic money payment systems.” Gulf News. Al Nisr, 10 Feb. 2013. Web. 9 June 2014. <http://gulfnews.com/business/banking/ iranian-banks-bypass-electronic-moneypayment-systems-1.1144334 >. 15 Wiggin, Addison. “How Gold Helped Iran Withstand U.S. Financial Fury.” Forbes. N.p., 23 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/ greatspeculations/2014/05/23/how-goldhelped-iran-withstand-u-s-financial-fury/ >. 16 Saul, Jonathan, and Parisa Hafezi. “Exclusive: Iran, Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal.” Reuters. N.p., 10 Jan. 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www. reuters.com/article/2014/01/10/us-iranrussia-oil-idUSBREA090DK20140110 >. 17 The Editors. “Global Insider: Iran’s Informal Financial Sector Has Boomed Under Sanctions.” World Politics Review. N.p., 31 Jan. 2013. Web. June 2014. <http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ trend-lines/12681/global-insider-iran-sinformal-financial-sector-has-boomedunder-sanctions >. 18 “Hawalas.” The Cornerstone Report. N.p., n.d. Web. June 2014. <http://www. ice.gov/doclib/news/library/reports/ cornerstone/cornerstone7-2.pdf>. 19 Wiggin, Addison. “How Gold Helped Iran Withstand U.S. Financial Fury.” Forbes. N.p., 23 May 2014. Web. 14
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2014. <http://warsclerotic.wordpress. com/2012/03/23/irans-40-billiontransfers-to-chinese-banks-sidestepfinancial-isolation/ >. 22 Rappaport, Liz. “Bank Settles Iran Money Case.” The Wall Street Journal. N.p., 15 Aug. 2012. Web. June 2014. <http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 00008723963904443181045775893804 27559426>. 23 Salmon, Felix. “Counterparties: “You f—ing Americans. Who are you to tell us that we’re not going to deal with Iranians.”.” Reuters. N.p., 6 Aug. 2012. Web. June 2014. < http://blogs. reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/08/06/ counterparties-you-fucking-americanswho-are-you-to-tell-us-thatwe%E2%80%99re-not-going-to-dealwith-iranians/>. 24 Saul, Jonathan, and Parisa Hafezi. “Exclusive: Iran, Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal.” Reuters. N.p., 10 Jan. 2014. Web. June 2014. < http://www. reuters.com/article/2014/01/10/us-iranrussia-oil-idUSBREA090DK20140110 >. 25 Caruso-Cabrera, Michelle. “Iranian oil exports on course to blow past limits.” CNBC. N.p., 3 June 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.cnbc.com/ id/101727475 >. 26 Freeman, Kevin D. “Our Paper or Their Oil?” Global Economic Warfare. N.p., 22 Feb. 2012. Web. June 2014. < http://globaleconomicwarfare. com/2012/02/our-paper-or-their-oil/ >. 27 The Counter Terrorist—June/July 2013 Cover: Russia, China and The New Global Democratic Peace 28 CNN Wire Staff. “Russia slams new sanctions against Iran.” CNN World. N.p., 22 Nov. 2011. Web. June 2014. <http:// www.cnn.com/2011/11/22/world/meast/
iran-sanctions/ >. 29 Kredo, Adam. “Russia Asks Iran: Help Us Skirt U.S. Sanctions.” The Washington Free Beacon. N.p., 8 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://freebeacon.com/nationalsecurity/russia-asks-iran-help-us-skirt-u-ssanctions/ >. 30 Narwani, Sharmine. “News Politics Culture & Society Economy Opinion Portraits In Focus Blogs GI Files Syria Files Arabic Edition Follow AlAkhbar on Twitter Like Al-Akhbar on Facebook Subscribe to our RSS Feed How Iran Changed The World.” alakhbar. N.p., 17 Feb. 2012. Web. June 2014. < http://english.al-akhbar.com/ blogs/sandbox/how-iran-changedworld?utm_source=feedburner&utm_ medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3 A+AlAkhbarEnglish+(Al+Akhbar+Engli
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sh) >. 31 Wiggin, Addison. “How Gold Helped Iran Withstand U.S. Financial Fury.” Forbes. N.p., 23 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/ greatspeculations/2014/05/23/how-goldhelped-iran-withstand-u-s-financialfury/>. 32 Perlroth, Nicole, and Quentin Hardy. “Bank Hacking Was the Work of Iranians, Officials Say.” The New York Times. N.p., 8 Jan. 2013. Web. June 2014. <http://www. nytimes.com/2013/01/09/technology/ online-banking-attacks-were-work-ofiran-us-officials-say.html?_r=0 >. 33 Harris, Shane. “Forget China: Iran’s Hackers Are America’s Newest Cyber Threat.” Foreign Policy. N.p., 18 Feb. 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://complex. foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/02/18/
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forget_china_iran_s_hackers_are_ america_s_newest_cyber_threat >. 34 IBID 35 Neal, Ryan W. “US Navy Needed Four Months And $10 Million To Clear Iranian Hackers From Marine Corps Network.” International Business Times. N.p., 18 Feb. 2014. Web. June 2014. < http://www. ibtimes.com/us-navy-needed-four-months10-million-clear-iranian-hackers-marinecorps-network-1556377 >. 36 Neal, Ryan W. “US Navy Needed Four Months And $10 Million To Clear Iranian Hackers From Marine Corps Network.” International Business Times. N.p., 18 Feb. 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://online.wsj. com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732 3336104578501601108021968 >. 37 Gorman, Siobhan. “Iran-Based Cyberspies Targeting U.S. Officials, Report Alleges.” The Wall Street Journal. N.p., 29 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-basedcyberspies-targeting-u-s-officials-reportalleges-1401335072 >. 38 Sanger, David E. “Obama Order Sped Up Wave of Cyberattacks Against Iran.” The New York Times. N.p., 1 June 2012. Web. 9 June 2014. <http://www.nytimes. com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/ obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacksagainst-iran.html?hp >. 39 Haaretz. “Prepare for cyber war, Iran’s supreme leader tells students.” Haaretz. N.p., 13 Feb. 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://www.haaretz.com/news/middleeast/1.574043 >. 40 Kahlili, Reza. “Iran’s Supreme Leader: Jihad Will Continue Until America is No More.” The Daily Caller. N.p., 25 May 2014. Web. June 2014. <http://dailycaller. com/2014/05/25/irans-supreme-leaderjihad-will-continue-until-america-is-nomore/ >.
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South Asia: Facing a Challenging Security Transition
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 53
By Srimal Fernando
Abstract Threats to national security are a global issue facing the world presently. Of the7 billion people of the world 1.4 billion live in South Asia. Even though many parts of the region are peaceful and trouble-free there are still potential threats to national security in many South Asian countries. If right steps are taken by the law enforcement agencies of the respective governments and the rule of law can be applied in peace operations such acts of violence that threatens national security can be prevented. The paper examines the Indian elections in a comparative manner and efforts taken by the new leadership in New Delhi to improve the overall relations and the situation across South Asia. In addition the paper offers the policymakers a brief lesson on the current security situation from the eight South Asian countries.
24,121.74 points as the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won the historic elections in India. The Barathiya- Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) the main opposition party in India emerged victorious winning 336 Loksbha seats with a 38.3 percent vote share. The major political partners of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprised of Barathiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (SS), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Lok Janashakthi Party (LJP), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLS). The Barathiya Janata Party (BJP) vote share in the Loksabha elections made
National Elections of India The world watched the closely contested elections of India in much anticipation on May 16th, 2014. India home to the world’s largest democracy with more than 830 million voters chose to elect 543 members to the 16th Loksabha elections. By late evening on May 16th, 2014 the Barathiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) recorded the a massive election victory. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex lifted to a record figure of
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inroads into crucial states in North India. The State of Uttar Pradesh is considered India’s most populace state with the highest number of Loksabha seats. In Uttar Pradesh alone the Barathiya Janata Party increased their vote bank and representation to 71 out of 80 Loksabha seats. While being overjoyed at the Loksabha election results Narendra Modi the Barathiya Janata Party (BJP) Prime Minister in waiting said in his victory speech India has won! This is India’s victory. “Achche din aane waale hain (The good days are ahead). Compared to previous elections the India National Congress (INC) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
saw its Loksabha vote bank erode to 61 Loksabha seats with 23 .3 percent vote share in 2014 . The major regional parties such as All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) of Tamil Nadu State , Trinamool Congress (TMC) of West Bengal State and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) of Odisha made significant gains in the Loksbha elections . All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J.Jayalalitha won 37 Lok Sabha seats out of 39 seats . The Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been vocal and had clearly stated that it wants to improve relations with India’s neighbors. Narendra Modi the Prime Minister designated has extended invitations to the South Asian leaders to attend the swearing in ceremony on May 26th ,2014 in New Delhi. Eight South Asian heads of states were invited to the new Indian Prime Minister’s swearing-in ceremony. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ’s participation added a new dimension to the India –Pakistan relations. It was a historic moment where the time has grown to heal the wounds between the two nuclear armed neighbors who fought three wars since Independence from Britain in 1947.
Security situation Of South Asia India Even though the newly elected Prime Minister of India is trying to foster friendly relations and lessen tension with neighbors there are potential threats to national security of India. Among them Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizbul Mujahideen Kashmiri terrorist groups have caused serious threats to the national security of India. Among the eight
South Asian countries India a nuclear armed nation with more than a million strong army personal spends nearly 37 billion American dollars annually for national defense. Decades-old hostility between Pakistan and India continues to serve as the backdrop for instability and tension across South Asia. The state of Kashmir is divided between the two nuclear armed countries is at the heart of hostility between the neighbors and was the cause of two of their three wars since independence from Britain in 1947. Also the growing Chinese influence in the Indian ocean countries such as the Maldives and Sri Lanka in the recent years has created a uneasiness for India not only from it northern boarders ,but also from the South. The Palk Bay, which connects northern Sri Lanka and the central part of the Tamil Nadu coastline,
constitutes a unique ecosystem. It is a shallow bay circumscribed by sea known for its biodiversity (Venkataraman 2004). Crossing International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) by the Indian fishermen for fishing in Sri Lankan waters has added a new dimension to current situation. This has brought Indian trawler fishers into regular conflict with the Sri Lankan navy has created tension in the Tamil Nadu state of India. Nowadays India is responding to internal and external security challenges with great creativity to enhance new patterns of global cooperation and partnership. These cooperation’s with countries by the newly elected government of India will see a transformation in regional security strategies that will bring stability and improve the overall situation across South Asia.
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Pakistan Pakistan saw a revival of the Political order coming to dominate the entire country in the past six months under the leaderships of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The national security of Pakistan is challenged by internal and external terrorist threats even though the countries defense budget had been increased to 627 billion Pakistani rupees for the coming financial year. In recent years there has been a high threat from terrorism, kidnappings and sectarian violence throughout Pakistan. The efforts to negotiate a peace deal with the Tehreek-e-Taliban ( TTP) or Taliban was a fitful peace and the prospect for Pakistan was gloomy. In the wake of a Taliban attack on the Karachi
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international airport on June 2014 the Pakistani military launched an assault on the militant hideouts in Northern Waziristan in the North-west of the country. Especially given the ongoing Pakistan military actions in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) it is estimated that more than 300,000 civilians have fled the region .In the recent months there had been regular fire exchanges between the Line of Control (LoC) in the India and Pakistan border. The state of Kashmir in the Indian side mostly Muslim Himalayan region of Kashmir is at the heart of hostility between the neighbors for the past six decades. The invitation extended to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to witness the swearing in ceremony of Narendra
Modi the Indian Prime Minister designated has fostered new kind of linkage across the boarders . The regular United States (US) led drone strikes from Afghanistan causes pressure on the countries government. In the recent past the Government of Afghanistan has accused Pakistan of carrying out terrorist acts in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan The complicating United States (US) -led efforts to end an intensifying Taliban insurgency has been the main root cause of bringing the required stability to Afghanistan. The US and British led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) withdrawal would give Taliban an upper hand in Afghanistan. This also could give an opportunity for antiIndian militants to use Afghanistan as a base. The main goal of the Islamist groups operating in Afghanistan is to re- establish sharia law in Afghanistan. Most of these groups are allied with the Taliban and wants full withdrawal of foreign forces from their country and see the fall of the Afghan central government. Threats are issued by the insurgents on an almost daily basis. The insurgents conduct frequent and widespread lethal attacks against the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) and around places where large public crowds gather. Perhaps most notably the year 2014 marked the most challenging year for domestic politics and the country will experience a change in leadership. The presidential election has been deadlocked by allegations of widespread fraud. The presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah who is of mixed ethnicity, owes much of his support to ethnic Tajiks, has regularly complained that his opponent, Ashraf Ghani an ethnic Pashtun, with the help of the Afghan Independent Election
Commission and other Afghan officials, rigged the vote. The Afghan Independent Election Commission has so far postponed the results on more than one occasion to help ease the political crisis in Afghanistan.
Sri Lanka Even though the war in Sri Lanka between the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had ended, the main problem based on ethnicity is still remains . In certain areas of the Northern and Eastern provinces, life has come to a reasonable life like in the other areas of the country. With availability of more consumer goods and better housing the desperate situation of people in these provinces are being alleviated. In Sri Lanka, there are still potential threats to national security. Recovery of an arms cache, and shooting incident involving LTTE terrorist named K.P Selvanayagam a.k.a Gobi is evidence on attempts to reorganize and re-arm the terrorist outfit. However the Sri Lankan Security forces were able to kill K.P Selvanayagam a.k.a Gobi and two other wanted terrorist in Nedunkerni area in April this year. Most Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fronts are coordinated by the Global Tamil Forum (GTF) with the overarching objective of reviving separatism. Their unwavering intent is the division of Sri Lanka and the establishment of a separate state for Tamil Eelam. Also crossing the International Maritime Boundary Line ( IMBL) that separates Sri Lanka and India by Indian fishermen for fishing in Sri Lankan waters has added a new dimension to the current maritime security situation. This has brought Indian trawler fishers into regular conflict with the Sri Lankan navy. There are the remnants of the radical groups that were involved in previous
insurgencies in the South and are trying to re -organise within Sri Lanka and mobilise people to once again take up their extreme left wing causes. The Sri Lanka Government raised the defense spending to 1.95 billon American dollars for the current year due to threat of terrorism re-emerging. Democratization and peace-building are closely inter liked. Political stability has been gradually restored in the former war shattered areas of the country. . The recently held Northern Provincial Council (NPC) elections where the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won majority of the seats have become a lens through which to observe the political changes in Sri Lanka. In March 2014 Provincial Council elections were held in Western and in Southern provinces of the country. The United Peoples Front Alliance (UPFA ) the ruling party of the present government was able win 89 seats out of the 150 seats in both the provinces. Even though the main opposition party the United National Party (UNP) was able to win 42 seats ,it was the Democratic party and the Marxist Peoples Liberation Front also known as the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party that increased their vote bank and representation in the two provinces. Sri Lankan Sunday Times newspaper reported on 22 June 2014 an assault and abuse of a Buddhist monk and his three wheeler scooter driver on 12th June 2014 who had been on their way to a religious ceremony by Muslims motorcyclist in Dharga Town triggered violence and had bred tension between the Muslim and Sinhalese communities living in the Southwestern part of Sri Lanka . Later more violence broke out where three persons were killed and another seventy persons wounded due violence. Troops were rushed to supplement police and
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 57
Special task force (STF) commandos were deployed under a prolong curfew, to bring the situation under control. Although tensions have lessened, between the Muslims and Sinhalese communities there is a potential for the security situation to deteriorate again if right steps are not taken to prevent such incidences by the law enforcement agencies in the future. Despite Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s abstaining the United States ( US) sponsored resolution at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva which seeks to authorize the body to set up an independent international inquiry in Sri Lanka to probe into human rights violations during Sri Lankaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s civil war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009 was passed . With 23 members voting in favour of
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the resolution while 12 voted against on 27th March 2014. The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) adopted the resolution titled Promoting Reconciliation, Accountability and Human Rights in Sri Lanka requesting the Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights to undertake a full investigation into alleged ,violations and abuses of human rights related crimes by parties concerned during the period covered by the Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) which examined the final year of the Sri Lankan conflict . However a home grown solution is the best way to bring about reconciliation among the two ethnically divided communities. Therefore, it is necessary to build permanent Peace in Sri Lanka and steps should be taken soon as possible.
The Maldives Nearly 100,000 ships pass through the Indian Ocean annually. The immediate threat to this vital shipping lane that handles sixty per cent of the world’s oil cargo and over fifty per cent of the world’s container traffic, has been facing piracy threats in the last few years . The Maldives and Sri Lanka are located very closely to this shipping lane. However the Maldivian authorities are currently detaining a number of individuals suspected to have been involved in piracy .After United States that has an air base in Diago -gracia pulls out by 2016the Maldivian Coast Guards needs to get more naval assets so that Maldives has the ability to patrol the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Government of Maldives led by President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom and Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa held official talks on the regional and international issues of mutual concern on June 2014 during a state visit by the Sri Lankan President to the Maldives . The current security situation in the Maldives is peaceful and trouble-free. As an emerging democracy, the Maldives faces challenges, and is vulnerable to external shocks to its nascent democracy.
Bangladesh The current Security situation in Bangladesh is peaceful on the surface. Although tensions have lessened, political differences between the ruling party and the opposition are unsettled .Political tensions between the Awami League-led Government and opposition parties led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Parties (BNP) led to 500 deaths in politically related violence in 2013. A general election, in which opposition
parties did not participate, took place in January2014. After the Bangladesh government refused to put in place an impartial caretaker government ahead of the elections the main opposition party Bangladesh National Party (BNP) called the boycott . Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for a third term along with twenty nine cabinet ministers. In 2013 a United Nations ( U.N) tribunal ended the territorial dispute between Bangladesh and Myanmar preventing a military conflict between the two sides. Focusing on national security the Government of Bangladesh signed a 1 billion American dollar defense deal with Russia for the purchase of anti-tank missiles, training fighters and helicopters. The country is to purchase its first submarine to improve its naval power in the Bay of Bengal. India shares 4000 kilometers of land border with Bangladesh and is an important neighbor . Both countries have witnessed significant forward movement in the bilateral relations with the visit by the new External Affairs Minister of India Shrimati Sushma Swaraj from June 25 to June 27.
Nepal Sushil Koirala, a leader of the Nepali Congress party, was elected prime minister in February 2014 after weeks of negotiations with the Unified MarxistLeninist party of Nepal (UML). Path of political stability in Nepal would take a positive note after completing the ongoing constitution writing process as per the public aspirations of the Nepali people. Nepal hopes of better days for relations with India when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nepal in the near future.
Bhutan India-Bhutan relations have a long history. With a broader security agenda and a focus on South Asia the Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi accompanied by External Affairs Minister Smt. Sushma Swaraj paid a state visit to Bhutan from 15 to 16 June 2014 at the invitation of His Majesty Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, the King of Bhutan. The two-day visit to Bhutan, by Prime Minister of India was his first foreign destination since he took over, office in June . During this visit, India focused on “Bharat to Bhutan” or “B2B” diplomacy .
Conclusion Democratization and peace-building are closely inter liked to see overall security situation of a country. Elections held in many parts of South Asia is a lens through which to observe the Political stability and the changes in governance that is taking place in the region and have a impacts on the national security of a country or the region . There are several remnants of the radical groups present in South Asian countries who are involved in insurgencies and acts of terrorism. If one is to analyze the current security situation of South Asia, the region is facing a challenging security transition. However with this likely scenario policy makers must focus on ways to make necessary legislative changes to strengthen the foreign policy, the economy and the national security of a country.
About the author Srimal Fernando, International Affairs Expert and Global Editor for Foreign Exchange Diplomatic Society (FETDS) of South Africa
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Book Review
Comrade J By Pete Earley
C
olonel Sergei Tretyakov— “Comrade J”—is the highestranking Russian SVR officer to defect to the United States. He collaborated with writer Pete Earley to share his insights in Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia’s Master Spy in America After the End of the Cold War (Berkley, 2009). Tretyakov’s account of life behind the Iron Curtain and life under Vladimir Putin reveals the amount of institutional deception that is necessary to bring an oppressive government to power and the scope of domestic spying and manipulation that is necessary to retain that power. The author opens quoting Colonel Tretyakov, “I want to warn Americans. As a people, you are very naïve about Russia and its intentions. You believe because the Soviet Union no longer exists, Russia now is your friend. It isn’t, and I can show you how the SVR is trying to destroy the U.S. even today and even more than the KGB did during the Cold War.” He goes on to warn Americans how Soviet socialists achieved their aims by quoting Stalin: “the people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” Tretyakov recounts a KGB operation that he believes is representative of Russian schemes to manipulate world opinion. “[LAZAR] was a coworker of Arthur’s at the Canadian arms control disarmament center in Ottawa. He had a close relationship with members
Reviewed by: Chris Graham
of the Canadian Parliament. LAZAR’s expertise was in international environmental law, and the KGB used him whenever it could to cause headaches for the U.S. The Center in Moscow provided LAZAR with scientific information that was specifically written to disrupt relations between Canada and the U.S. over environmental issues. LAZAR would deliver these anti-U.S. reports to his political connections in the Canadian parliament. They in turn would cite these reports, drafting legislation on environmental concerns. LAZAR never believed he was committing treason… he thought he was protecting the… environment.” The author quotes writer Michael Creighton describing another Russian enviro-scam as a “well orchestrated media campaign.” And adds, “This is not the way science is
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done, it is the way products are sold.” Tretyakov relayed to the author that “Gorbachev and Yeltsin did not fire the generals who ran the [KGB] Center. Nor did they put an outsider in charge of foreign intelligence and order him to clean house. Instead, Gorbachev promoted a former KGB lieutenant
general to take charge of the SVR.” In the days following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia agreed to stop engaging in active measures (disinformation campaigns). Tretyakov reports, “we said, ‘okay, now we are friends. We will stop doing this’ and the SVR shutdown Directorate A (A stood for active measures), but Directive A basically underwent a name change. That’s all. It became department MS (measures of support) and the very same people who had run it under the KGB were still doing it for the SVR.” The author explains how Saddam Hussein and the SVR exploited corruption in the U.N. to beat an oil embargo and specifies, “[U.N. Secretary General Kofi] Annan’s son, Kojo Annan, had earned as much as $485,000 in ‘consulting fees’ related to Iraqi oil transactions.” Tratyakov continues, “Politicians from nearly every country at the U.N.—except the U.S.—received money from Saddam’s scam. Many of them were U.N. diplomats.” Tretyakov relates, “officers brazenly met their sources inside the U.N.’s main building.” This was against rules, but
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“we ignored this rule because we had so many sources at the U.N.” The colonel explains, “We looked for diplomats who disliked the U.S. even though they were from countries that were considered by America to be a friend… I was always amazed at how cheaply we could get U.N. diplomats to work for us…We would buy jewelry at Walmart and they would gobble it up as if it were some precious treasure when they were actually betraying their countries… for a few hundred dollars worth of gold trinkets.” Tretyakov tells us, “from my parents I had learned neither communism nor socialism worked in Soviet society… As new citizens we found ourselves… offended when we see how natural born Americans take liberties for granted. Sometimes I believe only someone who’s lived in a corrupt society can truly understand the importance of America’s liberties.” Colonel Tretyakov warns, “During the Cold War in the Soviet military doctrine there was the definition of the Main Enemy, which was also used by intelligence as a basic principal.
It was the United States, followed by NATO… What is the official guideline for the SVR today? The terms have changed. It is now called the Main Target. But it is exactly the same, the United States followed by NATO.” He identifies the targets he was instructed to penetrate in New York: “military and government, New York financial institutions including the New York Stock Exchange… New York University [and] Columbia University.” Little consideration is given to the enduring wounds inflicted by the KGB’s subversive activities. Even less consideration is given to the current efforts of Vladimir Putin’s SVR. How many subversive seeds sown by yesterday’s communists are employed as weapons by today’s radicals? Read Comrade J and decide for yourself.
•
about the author Mr. Graham is the former commander of a military anti-terrorism unit, the creator of 30-10 training (www.3010pistol.com) and he is the editor of The Counter Terrorist magazine.
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 61
Tularemia as a Weapon
Tularemia is a bacteria-based disease that is highly contagious and potentially fatal. It spreads to humans through insect bites, skin contact with infected animals, ingesting contaminated water or food, or inhaling contaminated dusts or aerosols.
62 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Photo by: James R. Evans
By Jeffrey D. Shuman
R
abbits, hares, squirrels, mice, and other rodents are especially susceptible and die in large numbers during outbreaks.¹ Birds, reptiles and fish may also be carriers.2 The disease is often called “rabbit fever” due to its virulence among rabbits. The disease is endemic throughout North America, continental Europe, Russia, China, and Japan. It is rare in the United Kingdom, Africa, and Central and South America.3 The Amarillo, Texas International Airport experienced a tularemia outbreak in 2006. An entomologist was the first
to observe a mass jackrabbit die-off, and suspected tularemia. This person contacted airport and city officials, who quickly enacted quarantine protocols and appear to have successfully stemmed the spread of the disease to other rodents or humans.4
Effects on Humans There are six types of tularemia. Each has specific symptoms and all are accompanied by fever. Symptoms are displayed within ten days of infection.
The type of infection depends on where the bacteria enters the body. Most common routes are through the skin or mucous membranes, but the bacteria may also be inhaled or eaten. Ulceroglandular tularemia is the most common. Symptoms include skin ulcers at the site of infection, swollen and painful lymph glands, chills, headache, and exhaustion. Glandular tularemia exhibits the same symptoms as ulceroglandular but without the skin ulcers. Oculoglandular tularemia affects the eyes and causes eye pain, redness, eye
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 63
A culture of Francisella tularensis. Photo by: MarcoTolo
The image, taken with a fluorescent microscope, shows mouse macrophages 12 hours after infection with a virulent strain of Francisella tularensis. The cells on the left are untreated, while the cells on the right were treated 3 days in advance with CLDC+MPF. The untreated cells fail to control replication of F. tularensis. In contrast, cells activated with the CLDC+MPF therapeutic have nearly eliminated all of the bacteria. Photo by: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
64 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
swelling and discharge, and an ulcer on the inside of the eyelid. Oropharyngeal tularemia is usually caused by eating infected game that is improperly cooked, or by drinking contaminated water. Symptoms include sore throat, mouth ulcers, tonsillitis, swollen lymph glands in the neck, vomiting, and diarrhea. Pneumonic tularemia is more common in elderly people. It displays symptoms of pneumonia, and may be contracted in conjunction with the other forms of tularemia. Typhoidal tularemia is rare and more serious than the others. Symptoms include high fever, extreme exhaustion, vomiting and diarrhea, enlarged spleen, enlarged liver, and pneumonia. Of all the types listed, typhoidal tularemia
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 65
A Tularemia lesion on the dorsal skin of the right hand. Photo by: CDC Public Health Image Library
in an inhaled form would be the most dangerous and successful if weaponized. This is due to the seriousness of its symptoms when compared to the other forms.1, 3 Tularemia is rare and shares symptoms common with other diseases. This makes proper identification difficult. Doctors may check for the bacteria in blood or sputum. Chest x-rays may show signs of pneumonia. All forms of the disease may be successfully treated if diagnosed early and treated with antibiotics. There are no known vaccines for tularemia, but the symptoms may be treated with streptomycin or doxycycline.2
Past Outbreaks Several tularemia outbreaks have been recorded throughout the twentieth
century in the United States, Europe, the former Soviet Union countries, and Japan. Outbreaks may have occurred as early as the nineteenth century, but were likely improperly identified as isolated cases and not associated with a larger infectious process. In the early part of the twentieth century, a Japanese physician noted a comparison between the number of dead rabbits and the number of people becoming sick who had somehow handled or been exposed to these rabbits.3 Around the same time in the United States, physicians in California investigated dead rats and squirrels in an attempt to tie them to an outbreak of plague in San Francisco. These doctors noted lesions in infected samples that were different from plague samples, and this led to their discovery
66 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
of a form of tularemia. There is some speculation about a tularemia outbreak along the German-Russian front in 1942. Soldiers on both sides reportedly contracted the disease. Some believe the Russian forces released the bacteria as a form of defense to stem the German attack. Russian soldiers may have been sickened because this weapon does not discriminate. Others dispute this and claim the outbreak may have been due to a breakdown in health and hygiene and an increase in contact with diseasebearing rodents.3 One of the largest outbreaks of tularemia occurred in Sweden between 1966 and 1967.3 The outbreak coincided with a large increase, then sudden drop, in the number of voles in that country. Sweden reported 2,739 cases of tularemia
that year which is nearly half of the total number of cases the country reported between 1931 and 1993.3 The United States has reported between 200-300 cases of tularemia each year with the most occurring in Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia, and Tennessee. The disease has been reported in all states except Hawaii.3 While there is no known immunization for tularemia, the spread of the disease appears to be halted by minimizing contact with infected animals, following good hygiene standards, and treating people who have the sickness. Victims of the disease go through a clinical program to treat the symptoms.3 This has proven successful in past cases and outbreaks. Not treating the symptoms has the potential to allow the disease to progress to respiratory failure, shock, and possibly death.3 In 2000, the Working Group on Civilian Biodefense noted a mortality rate for pneumonic tularemia, if untreated, as high as 60%.3 In 1970, a World Health Organization committee asserted that roughly 100 pounds of tularemia dispersed as an aerosol over a population of 5 million could result in an estimated 250,000 casualties, including nearly 19,000 deaths.3, 5
successful. The sound of the detonation would alert people that something had happened. Investigators could discover the biological agent and enact procedures to limit contamination. Employing any biological agent as a weapon requires patience. A biological release would not garner the immediate headlines associated with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) detonated in a populated area. However, the eventual confusion and fear following a successful bioterrorist attack could be unimaginable. Sickened people, depending on where the agent was introduced, could easily number into the thousands. Victims could overwhelm hospitals and emergency rooms. Local, state, and federal government offices would be inundated with calls for action. Bioterrorists realize this potential and may attempt to covertly release their agent on unsuspecting communities. An attack would likely occur at night and
Bacillus anthracis Bioterrorism Incident, Kameido, Tokyo, 1993, Fluid collected from the Kameido site cultured on Petri dishes to identify potential Bacillus anthracis isolates. Photo by: Centers for Disease Control
Weaponization Biological agents are difficult to successfully weaponize. They are living organisms that die if not maintained within the limits of their required environment. Weaponization conjures images of vials filled with bio-agents either inside a bomb or secured around an explosive. In this case, the biological agent is released upon detonation. That is a possible form of dissemination. However, the heat from the explosion would likely kill a large amount of the agent and render the attack less
Kasumigaseki Station, one of the many stations affected during the attack. Photo by: WikimediaCommons
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 67
A template for a bioterrorist attack would be the Aum Shinrikyo sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995. The Aum Shinrikyo cult placed plastic bags filled with home-made sarin gas on five subway cars during Tokyoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s early morning rush hour. The gas dispersed throughout the subway cars and Kasumigaseki station. Twelve people died and an estimated 5,000 were injured.6 A biological agent could be released in a similar fashion. Innocent people would be sickened and a percentage will likely die. The ideal biological weapon would be effective in small doses, have a short incubation period, withstand the stresses of dissemination, and be minimally contagious to the person, or persons, employing it.
Impact of a Bioterrorist Attack
A chest X-ray showing increased opacity in both lungs, indicative of pneumonia, in a patient with SARS. Photo by: PerPlex
As the disease spreads and knowledge of the attack grows, so too would fear spread.
employ a quiet dispersal device such as a fan or sprayer. Alternately, the bioterrorist may simply open or secrete a container downwind from the target or near a public area such as an office building, courtyard, stadium or mass transit station. A night attack would minimize the sunâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s adverse affects on the agent. The incubation period takes time and this could allow a bioterrorist to escape the area. The bioterrorist risks the threat of self-contamination, but if they understand the disease and the nature of their attack, then they may take the necessary precautions to protect themselves.
68 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
One of the greatest unknowns regarding a bioterrorist attack is how far the disease could spread before being discovered. As discussed above, releasing a biological agent would most likely take place quietly and in a non-descript manner. People would not know they were exposed until after symptoms appeared. Victims would eventually be identified through hospitalization, from family members reporting sicknesses or deaths, or from people not showing up to work. Hospital emergency rooms would be the first to notice an increase in people seeking treatment for related ailments. Eventually medical professionals and other specialists would put the dots together and realize that a biological agent has been released. They may even be able to pinpoint the date, time, and location of the release. This would help with clean-up efforts but little else. Stopping the spread would require
Entrance to the headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Photo by: Daniel Mayer
knowing how far the disease travelled. A disease such as typhoidal tularemia in its inhaled form could spread like wildfire. The 2002 spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a good comparison for how tularemia may spread. The SARS disease was first discovered in China in late 2002 and spread to over two dozen countries before being contained in mid 2003.7 The disease first crossed into countries nearest to China, such as Vietnam and Hong Kong, and then travelled to the Philippines, Europe, and North America. It is probable that the disease travelled to these cities via airports. If tularemia was dispersed in a city with an international airport or an international population, such as New York City, then it would be possible for the disease to travel
throughout the world in a very short time. As the disease spreads and knowledge of the attack grows, so too would fear spread. People would avoid public places including mass transit, shopping centers, and parks. People would stay away from work for fear of coming into contact with an infected person. The area around the initial exposure may completely shut down. If this area was a city government or federal building then that function could, conceivably, be shut down until disinfected. Tourism would end either by mandatory notices from governments or voluntary bans on travel from tourists. Businesses would suffer as goods and services into and out of the affected area would grind to a halt. Least known would be the cost of clean-up after an attack. This could range
into the billions of dollars based on lost productivity, insurance claims, the money expended by governments for emergency response, and countless man-hours for police and other investigators, hospital staffs, clean-up crews, etc. Finally, the fallout from dealing with diseased persons could be unconscionable. Mandatory treatments might be enforced as well as the quarantine of entire neighborhoods. The legal issues of these procedures are almost limitless.8
Conclusion The Center for Disease Control and Prevention has identified tularemia as a Category A Bioterrorism Agent. Category A agents are easily transmitted from person to person, result in a high mortality rate, have the potential for
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 69
The Aeromedical Isolation Team of the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Maryland. Photo by: US Government
a major public health impact, may cause panic and social disruption, and require special action for public health preparedness.1 The United States has historically done well fighting conventional adversaries. This was evidenced by the success of the first Gulf War and the quick defeat of the Iraqi Army in 2003. However, the government is still coming to grips with Unrestricted Warfare and unconventional adversaries. A biological attack, while not immediately gratifying for a terrorist, does have the potential to produce massive casualties, chaos, and fear. These asymmetric warriors may be the most likely to employ biological agents or other Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) against the United States or other free societies. A biological agent release would be difficult to determine until after the damage has been done. Deterring potential adversaries and being prepared to react to a release may be the most successful approach to dealing with a bioterrorist attack.
•
about the author Mr. Shuman is a former U.S. Air Force Explosive Ordnance Disposal technician and master sergeant. He works as a government consultant in the Washington D.C. area.
outbreak at a metropolitan airport, Texas. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 7(3). Retrieved from Academic OneFile database. 5 World Health Organization. (1970). Health aspects of chemical and biological weapons. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 1970:105-107 6 Seto, Y. (2001). The sarin gas attack in Japan and the related forensic investigation. Retrieved from http:// www.opcw.org/news/article/the-sarin-gasattack-in-japan-and-the-related-forensicinvestigation/ 7 Hunter, N.D. (2009). The Law of Emergencies Public Health and Disaster Management, Butterworth-Heinemann. 8 Tognotti, E. (2013). Lessons from the history of quarantine, from plague to influenza A. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19(2). Retrieved from Academic OneFile database.
ENDNOTES Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2014). Tularemia. Retrieved from http://www.cdc.gov/ tularemia 2 Mayo Clinic. (2014). Diseases and conditions tularemia. Retrieved from http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/ tularemia/DS00714 3 Texas Department of State Health Services. (2010). History of tularemia – tularemia through the ages. Retrieved from https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/ preparedness/bt_public_history_ tularemia.shtm 4 Alexander, J. L., Bell, T. E., Duke, D., Thomas, S. G., Rush, P. Jr., & Richardson, J. M. (2009). Tularemia 1
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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 71
Umarovâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Legacy and the Future of the Imirat Kavkaz
72 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Photo by: Angelliuel7
By Michael S. Toney
In a mixture of Arabic and heavily accented Russian, Dokku Umarov’s successor, Aliashab Alibulatovich Kebekov, also known as Sheikh Ali Abu Mukhammad ad-Dagestani, announced that he was the new emir of the Imirat Kavkaz (IK).1
U
marov, often referred to as Russia’s bin Laden, was declared dead at age 49 on March 19, 2014.2, 3 Various sources reported that he had been seriously wounded in a battle against Russian forces, succumbing to his injuries sometime between January and
March 2014.4 He had been reportedly killed eight times before, forced to retire by senior Chechen commanders, and then been reinstated as emir by an IK shariah court; however, this time he would not be returning from the dead. Umarov’s death was confirmed by
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 73
Vladimir Putin chaired a meeting on the “environmental” aspects of the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. Photo by: premier.gov.ru
He attempted to enrage his followers with messages such as “they plan to hold the Olympics on the bones of our ancestors.”
an IK media release and other terrorist organizations from Turkey to Syria. It was also confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).5 Umarov’s death was a major accomplishment for Putin, ending a decades-long manhunt for Russia’s most wanted terrorist, an event similar in importance to the killing of Osama bin Laden for the U.S. government. Russian authorities have accused Umarov of ordering Chechen rebels to carry out some 2,400 insurgency operations, including 54 suicide attacks, resulting in as many as 9,000 casualties.6 In addition to the more recent bombing of the Domodedovo airport in January 2011, and two metro stations using female suicide bombers in September
74 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
2010, Russian authorities believe that Umarov was behind other high casualty attacks such as the Moscow theater siege in 2002, which resulted in the deaths of 129 people.7, 8 In the months leading up to the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi, Umarov intensified his threats, resulting in significantly increased security actions by the Russian government. Umarov had encouraged his followers to use “any methods that Allah allows” to stop the Olympic Games, including biological weapons.9, 10 He attempted to enrage his followers with messages such as “they plan to hold the Olympics on the bones of our ancestors.” To his dismay, his demands went unanswered and led to nothing more than threats, fear and
the arrest of his followers. The Olympic Games concluded successfully and his aspirations for violence had been a humiliating failure. Omar al-Shishani, a Chechen commander in the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and Abdullah Mansour, the leader of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), announced condolences and gave eulogies to Umarov.11, 12 According to the Kavkaz Center, processions were held in several cities in Turkey, which were reportedly attended by thousands of Turkish Muslims.4 Mukhtar Abu al-Zubeir, the leader of al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, offered his condolences as well.13
Domodedovo Airport, lobby and check-in desks. Photo by: A.Savin
Umarov’s Rise to Power Umarov, also known as Dokku Umarov, was born April 13, 1964, in the village of Kharsenoi in the Shatoysky District of Southern Chechnya.14 Umarov’s first run-in with the government was in 1980 with a conviction for reckless homicide. Following this incident, in 1992, he was wanted for murder and later for kidnapping. His military career began before 1994 when he served in the special forces under Ruslan Gelayev, a prominent commander in the Chechen separatist movement against Russia.15 In 1997, Umarov held the position of Secretary of the Security Council of the selfproclaimed Republic of Ichkeria.16 Chechnya is recognized as a Republic, or subject of Russia, split into two parts, the Republic of Ingushetia and the Chechen Republic, also referred to as the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. In the first Chechen War with Russia, Ichkeria established independence, but surrendered this independence back to
“Dozens killed in Domodedovo airport blast”. Law enforcement officers guard the entrance to Domodedovo airport as part of increased security measures following the deadly blast. Photo by: Andrey Stenin Russia following the second Chechen War.17 Chechen extremists continue to battle Russian forces with the goal of establishing an independent Islamic state. Umarov’s IK is supposed to be the manifestation of an independent Islamic state; however, it is recognized not as a
territory, but as a terrorist organization by Russian authorities. Umarov’s rise through the ranks accelerated after Russian forces killed his predecessors, Aslan Maskhadov, in 2005, and then Khalim Saydullayev, in 2006.16, 18 Umarov formed the IK on
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 75
Aslan Maskhadov. Photo by: Natalia Medvedeva
Overcrowded surface public transport lines on the day of the 2010 Moscow Metro bombings. Photo by: Anton Nossik
People mourning the victims and bringing flowers and candles at the scene of the terrorist attack in the Lubyanka metro station in Moscow. Photo by: Leonid Dzhepko
October 31, 2007, citing liberation, and that he was following Allahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s path.6 He divided the Caucasus into six fronts, some further subdivided into sectors, each headed by its own Emir who reported directly to Umarov personally. Although he had declared himself as the supreme Emir in 2007, most Chechens rejected this proclamation.19
Umarovâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leadership Style Based upon a detailed analysis of Umarovâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s video messages,20 he can be described as an exploitative leader who used his followers as a means for creating, validating, and perpetuating his power in the Northern Caucasus and within
76 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
the global jihadist community. The tentativeness of his messages reflected a form of adaptive control in which he adjusted his messages in response to the political environment and mainstream media. Umarov rationalized his thought processes and actions while implying a sense of insight into future events from a narcissistic point-of-view. He was hypersensitive to managing social perception, and likely considered it imperative to his survival and role as regional unifier. Umarov likely anticipated that at some point, perception and reality would converge, materializing into an acceptable variation of his political objectives, but his death leaves this convergence to his successor. Legitimization of his role and the ongoing validation of the IK were extremely important to him, particularly the perception within the IK ranks, as this was his only means of protecting the organization from fragmentation. While he was self-focused, he also demonstrated an emotional attachment to the IK and its ideology as an altruistic participant. The religious context of his messages in effect, served as a recruitment tool for attracting disillusioned Muslim youths and the sustainment of his organization
Emergency meeting following explosions at Domodedovo Airport with head of Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation Alexander Bastrykin, Prosecutor General Yury Chaika and Transport Minister Igor Levitin (right). Photo by: The Presidential Press and Information Office
during times of crisis. Umarov viewed his efforts with permanence and resoluteness, to the degree of denying real-world circumstances and obstacles. This behavior reflected the intent to drive group cohesion by emphasizing the IKâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s successes and future objectives, which is a common practice by jihadist organizations. Communications were important as he frequently addressed
his followers, providing status of his efforts and the state of the IK as facts and strategic imperatives. His rhetoric followed a tentative format allowing the maximum number of outcomes to align with his insights and forecasts. Contrary to other news reports, his behaviors demonstrated a political savvy and sensitivity to the critical observations of his followers and opponents. It was this political savvy that enabled him to unite Chechen
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 77
A mountain outpost of the 33rd Mountain Rifle Brigade in Dagestan. Photo by: Sergey Pyatakov
jihadists with other terrorist groups in the North Caucasus as well as extending his relationships beyond the Caucasus.
Mukhammad and the IK’s Future Hidden away in the North Caucasus, Mukhammad declared his acceptance of the role of IK Emir via recorded video. Mukhammad was born in 1972 in the Sovyetsky District of Dagestan.21 He studied shariah law in Syria in the early 2000s under his nephew, Murtuzali Magomedov. Since 2010, he has held
78 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
the position of “Qadi,” chief theologian, judge and ideologist, monitoring organizational compliance with the Koran and Sunna.6 It is unclear if he will maintain that role in addition to Emir. He has already earned a position on Russia’s list of most wanted terrorists and will likely take on the priority for “kill or capture” once held by his predecessor. The IK as an organization will likely go through a period of chaos while Mukhammad seeks to impose his authority and organize his command structure. As a Caucasian Avar, a non-
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Chechen, it is not clear yet if he will be capable of holding the organization together.22 Mukhammad’s video releases demonstrate an increase in the radical nature of the IK, indicating that he will rule with an iron fist under an extremist’s interpretation of Islam. Umarov’s efforts to unite the Northern Caucasus and legitimize the IK will likely dissipate into disorganization. Sub-factions may form and break away from IK-proper, as has happened to many other violent organizations during periods of major transition. It is equally possible that the IK will reject Mukhammad’s heavy-handed rule by shariah law. In a video release, he stated “If you consider yourselves Muslims, then impose shariah law, and we shall stop waging war against you.”21 Included in this message was a warning that his men will target those who engage in promoting depravity and vice, such as owners of liquor stores, saunas, and bordellos. He expects strict adherence to the Koran and Sunna. Mukhammad’s ideological position aligns with the extremist values of the broader jihadist movement, but it fails to demonstrate the larger view and goals of regional unification and establishment of an Islamic state that his predecessor held. He has several pending actions awaiting his attention. Organizations such as the Syrian Al-Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS), and the Ukrainian Right Sector expect support in the form of people, weapons and funding.23 The global jihadist community awaits Mukhammad’s first actions as the IK Emir, particularly al-Qaeda. While it would be a logical first action to build upon the relationship with the mujahidin in Syria because it presents
an opportunity to gain access to Assad’s chemical weapons cache, he ordered his fighters to remain in the Caucasus.24 It remains to be seen whether he will inspire and order violent actions or drive away the more liberal Chechen prospects. His rigidity and obsession with shariah law, as noted in his blanket statement of waging war against noncompliant Muslims, may become his Achilles’ heel in sustaining an active and cohesive organization. Under Mukhammad’s self-admission, he lacks the combat training and handson experience that enabled Umarov to evade capture by Russian forces for so many years.25 Although Umarov’s political and strategic competencies are considered far worse than his predecessors, Mukhammad seems to be a step further away from increasing the tactical competency of the IK or garnering international sympathy. With the death of Umarov and the inexperience of Mukhammad, the FSB has the clear strategic advantage, equipment, and force strength to quickly dismantle the IK threat, beginning with a kill or capture order for Mukhammad.
•
about the author Mr. Toney holds a doctorate in business administration with specialization in organizational behavior from the University of Phoenix. He has worked with the U.S. Department of Defense for more than 25 years, teaches graduate courses at Ashford University, and has published three books on terrorism: Terrorist Organizational Behavior, Organizational Behavior Profile: AQIM, and Terrorist Leader Profiles and Comparative Behavioral Analysis.
Footnotes 1
Kavkaz Center, Caucasus Emirate’s
80 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
Sharia Judge, Ali Abu Muhammad, elected as new CE Emir by leaders of CE provinces, in Kavkaz Center. 2014, Kavkaz Center: Online. 2 Winter, J., US, Russian forces hunt jihadist widow feared inside Olympic zone, in Fox News. 2014, Fox News: Online. 3 News, F., Islamic group reports death of Chechen warlord who threatened Sochi Olympics, in Fox News. 2014, Fox News: Online. 4 Kavkaz Center, Thousands prayed for martyr, Insha’Allah, Dokku Abu Usman in Turkey in Kavkaz Center. 2014, Kavkaz Center: Online. 5 Baczynska, G., Russia confirms death of Islamist militant, its most wanted man, in Reuters. 2014, Reuters: Online. 6 Roggio, W., House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence Hearing. 2014, Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc: Online. 7 Lister, T., Moscow attack renews spotlight on ‘Emir of the Caucasus’, in CNN. 2011, CNN: Online. 8 RT, Two blasts in Moscow Metro, dozens killed, in RT. 2010, RT: Online. 9 Kavkaz Center, Circassians got no reply from the IOC. Perhaps, Dokku Umarov and his friends answer them in Kavkaz Center. 2013, Kavkaz Center: Online. 10 de Carbonnel, A. and S. Gutterman, Russia says foils plot to attack chemical arms facility, in Reuters. 2013. 11 SITE Monitoring Service. Chechen ISIL Commander Gives Eulogy for Former IEC Leader Doku Umarov. 2014 [cited 2014 May 27]; Available from: https:// news.siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/ chechen-isil-commander-gives-eulogyfor-former-iec-leader-doku-umarov.html. 12 SITE Monitoring Service. TIP Leader Expresses Solidarity with Chechen Fighters Over Umarov Death. 2014 [cited 2014 May 27]; Available from: https://news. siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/tip-
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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 81
leader-expresses-solidarity-with-chechenfighters-over-umarov-death.html. 13 SITE Monitoring Service. Shabaab Leader Links France, Missionaries to Car Attacks. 2014 [cited 2014 May 27]; Available from: https://news. siteintelgroup.com/Western-JihadistForum-Digest/shabaab-leader-linksfrance-missionaries-to-car-attacks.html. 14 Opperman, J., Latest Report of Umarov’s Death Leaves Details Unclear, in Radio Free Europe. 2014, Radio Free Europe: Online. 15 Kavkaz Center, Combats in Western Ichkeria in Kavkaz Center. 2003, Kavkaz Center: Online. 16 Kavkaz Center, Caucasus Emirate’s Emir Dokku Abu Usman martyred, Insha’Allah. Obituary in Kavkaz Center. 2014, Kavkaz Center: Online. 17 Schaefer, R.W., The Insurgency in Chechnya and the North Caucasus: From
Gazavat to Jihad. 1 ed. 2011: Praeger Security International. 18 Anthony, L. and W. Helen, Russia’s bin Laden dead, rebels admit, in The Times (London, England). 2014, News International Trading Limited: London (UK). p. 26. 19 Kavkaz Center, Caucasus Emirate, in Kavkaz Center. 2007, Kavkaz Center: Online. 20 Toney, M., Terrorist Leader Profiles and Comparative Behavioral Analysis: Abdullaah Yusuf Azzam, Abdelmalek Droukdel, Osama bin Laden, Dokku Umarov Abu Uthman and Ayman al-Zawahiri. 2013: CreateSpace Independent Publishing. 21 TRAC. Ali Abu-Muhammad (aka Aliashab Alibulatovich Kebekov). 2014 [cited 2014 May 27]; Available from: http://www.trackingterrorism.org/ group/ali-abu-muhammad-aka-aliashab-
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alibulatovich-kebekov-individual-profile. 22 TRAC. Caucasus Emirate chooses a new leader. 2014 [cited 2014 May 27]; Available from: http://www. trackingterrorism.org/what-to-watch/ caucasus-emirate-new-leader-old-choiceand-uncertain-future. 23 Kavkaz Center, Ukrainian Right Sector declares mobilization and appeals to Caucasus Emirate’s Emir Dokku Abu Usman, in Kavkaz Center. 2014, Kavkaz Center: Online. 24 Paraszczuk, J. New Caucasus Emirate Emir Kebekov: Jihad In North Caucasus Priority Over Syria. 2014 [cited 2014 May 27]; Available from: http://www. chechensinsyria.com/?p=21203. 25 Radio Free Europe, Avar Theologian Named To Succeed Umarov As Insurgency Leader, in Radio Free Europe,. 2014, Radio Free Europe,: Online.
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Sri Lankaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Rehabilitation Program: A New Frontier in Counter Terrorism and Counter Insurgency1 By Malkanthi Hettiarachchi
86 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 87
Introduction The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), sometimes referred to as the Tamil Tigers, was a separatist militant organization based in northern Sri Lanka. It was founded in 1976 by Velupillai Prabhakaran and waged a violent secessionist campaign to create an independent state in the north and east of Sri Lanka for the Tamil people. This campaign evolved into the Sri Lankan Civil War. Almost every citizen in the country has lost someone they know in the thirty-year war. The Tigers were considered one of the most ruthless insurgent and terrorist organisations in the world.2 They were vanquished by the Sri Lankan armed forces in May 2009.3 In order to rehabilitate the 11,6644 Tigers who had surrendered or been taken captive, Sri Lanka developed a multifaceted program to engage and transform the violent attitudes and behaviours of the Tiger leaders, members and collaborators.5 Many attribute Sri Lanka’s postconflict stability to the success of the insurgent and terrorist rehabilitation program. Globally, rehabilitation and community engagement is a new frontier in the fight against ideological
rather than adopting the classic retributive justice model, Sri Lanka embraced the restorative justice model
extremism and its violent manifestations – terrorism and insurgency.6 Following a period of captivity or imprisonment, insurgents and terrorists are released back into society. Without their disengagement and de-radicalization, they will pose a continuing security threat. Working with communities, the media, academic circles, and the private sector, governments should invest time and energy into mainstreaming the thinking of those who have deviated into ideological extremism and violence.
indigenized, adapted, and developed to a high standard in Sri Lanka. The founders of the Sri Lankan rehabilitation program named it the “6+1 model.” It consists of the following modes of rehabilitation and community engagement:8 1.Educational 2.Vocational 3.Psychosocial and creative therapies 4.Social, cultural, and family 5.Spiritual and religious 6.Recreational +1: Community rehabilitation
Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Program in Context
The Sri Lankan spirit itself was conducive for embracing rehabilitation. Rather than adopting the classic retributive justice model, Sri Lanka embraced the restorative justice model.9 Sri Lanka drew from its own rich heritage of moderation, toleration, and coexistence – communities in Sri Lanka have lived side by side for millenia.10 Sri Lanka’s first experience in rehabilitation was after security forces defeated the Peoples Liberation Front (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), a vicious MarxistLeninist group that adopted Maoist tactics, in 1971. Although the programs were not as robust as the contemporary program, there was hardly any recidivism among the participants.11 After a period of incarceration, the state did not oppose and at times facilitated the re-entry of some of the key players of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna into the political mainstream. The Bureau of the Commissioner General of Rehabilitation (BCGR) was founded as the special state authority responsible for the rehabilitation and reintegration program following the defeat of LTTE in 2009. The rehabilitation centers were named Protective Accommodation and Rehabilitation Centers (PARCs), accommodating nearly 11,500 cadres that
As every conflict differs, there is no common template applicable to all rehabilitation programs. Nevertheless, there are some common principles of rehabilitation. Rehabilitation is about changing the thinking and behaviour of offenders. Prior to the reintegration of former terrorists into mainstream society, offenders must move away from violent extremist thinking. Global rehabilitation programs can be characterized as developed, developing, and defunct programs. The most developed programs are operating in Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. The developing programs are in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Colombia, while defunct programs are in Egypt, Yemen, and Libya.7 In the process of creating a program that was applicable to Sri Lanka, existing global programs in Asia, Africa, and Latin America were reviewed. Singapore’s rehabilitation model, considered one of the best global programs with its large number of psychologists and religious counsellors, was particularly instructive. The six modes of rehabilitation developed in the Singapore rehabilitation program were
88 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
either surrendered or where identified while masquerading as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) at the end of the conflict. Approximately 254 staff12 worked within Sri Lankan rehabilitation centers, attending to the welfare requirements of the beneficiaries as well as facilitating the rehabilitative input provided by several agencies. This figure does not include security staff dedicated to perimeter security. Security concerns related to rioting or running away were virtually absent, with a relatively small number of security personnel guarding the perimeter both in June 2009 and December 2009. The rehabilitation process was aimed at reintegrating the former LTTE leaders, members, and collaborators into the community. During the process, beneficiaries within the PARCs were supported to engage in a range of programs, and through these programs reconnect to all aspects of individual and communal life, including familial, social, cultural, and religious. The beneficiaries were supported to shift their thinking away from the narrow hate-filled ideology targeted towards the Sinhalese, Muslims and national and international figures that opposed the LTTE agenda. Upon reflection on their actions and experiences, the former terrorists and insurgents found new meaning in their lives. They were transformed into champions of peace with values of moderation, toleration, and co-existence replacing hate, anger, and the monoethnic single narrative.13 The majority of the beneficiaries were reintegrated within the 24month mandated period and as of January 2013 11,481 beneficiaries14 had been reintegrated. 594 child beneficiaries15 were reintegrated within the stipulated one-year rehabilitation period for children. The reintegration
53 former LTTE cadres got married in Vavuniya. They are being moved to family houses, but still kept in the rehabilitation program. Photo by Indi Samarajive on Flicker
of students, the disabled, and the aged were prioritised, and the BCGR engaged the community to enlist their support for rehabilitation. The first step in the rehabilitation process was to categorize the surrendered and apprehended insurgents and terrorists. Utilizing interviews and background information, law enforcement authorities and intelligence agencies categorized former insurgents based on their depth of involvement, period of involvement, and activities conducted during involvement. They were labelled as high, medium, or low risk, and allocated to detention and PARCs accordingly.
tales of heroism were concocted to motivate cadres and recruit by generating anger, hatred and lust for revenge
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 89
Effectiveness of Rehabilitation
effective engagement requires staff training, guidance and discipline
A baseline survey was conducted to assess the changing attitudes and opinions of the beneficiaries. To determine their degree of radicalization, the survey results were assessed by University of Maryland psychologists Arie Kruglanski and Michele Gelfand. There was a significant decline in the levels of radicalization following the beginning of rehabilitation interventions and the way in which the staff interacted with the beneficiaries.16 The impact of radicalization and the importance of rehabilitation in the transformation of thinking were articulated by a 16-year-old child soldier groomed by the Tamil Tiges; “As vultures that eat dead bodies and hands that stretch out to beg, terrorism destroys communities and destroyed our wellbeing until the end. Loosing and separating mother and child, communities bore the tears of the people, they trapped us by giving false hopes saying even death can become life, the tombstone an Epic.”17 She refers to terrorism preying upon and thriving on the dead, and on the unsuspecting poor. The LTTE used powerful narratives of those that died while conducting acts of terror. Tales of heroism were concocted to motivate cadres and recruit by generating anger, hatred and lust for revenge. LTTE leaders also exploited the vulnerable poor who were more easily recruited and given significance, power and a means of livelihood to ensure unquestioning loyalty. The impact of terrorism on communities has been devastating; splitting the family unit, the loss of the child groomed into death. The LTTE policy of recruiting one member of each household led families to give their under age children in marriage to older men
90 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
for protection, or got them pregnant to prevent recruitment. Children were also turned against their family members to demonstrate their loyalty to the insurgency. The indoctrination of cadres with the perception that through suicide terrorism one achieves continued life as martyrs was prevalent. LTTE leaders promoted suicide terror by justifying and glorifying the act of mass murder by suicide attacks. The individual has to de-radicalize to be able to disengage from violence and re-engage in harmonious living.18 Rehabilitation is the method to achieve this end. The LTTE leadership developed the mastery of indoctrinating the masses, especially the youth. LTTE leaders groomed and motivated their members to sacrifice themselves in suicide attacks and to sacrifice the wellbeing of one’s own kith and kin in the pursuit of a violent radical ideology. Radicalization was the tool used to engage and sustain its membership. Therefore a multifaceted rehabilitation program was necessary to engage the surrendered and apprehended detainees’ hearts and minds to facilitate de-radicalization. Sri Lanka’s “6+1” rehabilitation model included the following six modes of rehabilitation and (+) community engagement: (1) educational, (2) vocational, (3) spiritual and religious, (4) psychosocial and creative therapies (5) social, cultural, and family, and (6) recreational. The assessment phase involved four pillars to obtain a broad understanding of the individual. First, interviews with the beneficiary; second, reviewing past records; third, observations noted by the staff working day to day within the PARCs documenting beneficiary response to a range of activities and programs; and fourth, formal assessment using psychometrics where possible. This assessment method
ensures a comprehensive process to overcome deception. Assessment was conducted in a safe and secure environment where the beneficiaries were free to engage in discussion and express their thoughts openly without fear of reprisal. Timely and ongoing assessment was an important part of the program. Engagement is the key to understanding the individual mindset as thought patterns are intangible. Whilst thought patterns can be accessed by using interviews, paper and pencil tests, one must consider aspects such as deception and social desirability. Particularly in the case of the LTTE, both ruthlessness and deception were a part of the training. Considered masters at deception,19 a few in the terrorist cadres that entered rehabilitation did not disclose the full extent of their involvement. Similar examples are found in Iraq and Afghanistan, where former terrorists of the Al Qaeda movement worked with the US military and other agencies but without revealing their true intentions. In the Sri Lankan case, there were only a few that attempted such deception because the conflict had come to an end. Deception and resistance would occur when one believed that the information provided by the beneficiary would result in negative consequences and/or when the beneficiary does not wish to transform. Therefore it is vital that the staff engaging the beneficiary not function in an investigative capacity. It was necessary to keep the investigation and rehabilitation processes separate to ensure effective engagement. Over time beneficiaries understood the rehabilitation process. They became less anxious and more confident about the process. They voluntarily provided more accurate and more detailed information.
There were few instances of information contaminated with peer opinions and theories or information doctored to gain early reintegration. There was evidence of deception in the creation of a phantom individual and projecting one’s role onto another individual and/or denial of own actions. At the same time the beneficiaries who disclosed their own information accurately, also informed the interviewers of those that hid their involvement within the terrorist movement.20 As the beneficiaries reflected on their past, they rejected violence and embraced peace. The Sri Lankan military managed the centers but civilians staffed the rehabilitation intervention programs. The Sri Lankan military was trained in a way that they would acquire skills required to manage a vast number of former LTTE cadres. The military personnel responsible for the security of the perimeter did not interact with the beneficiaries. Officers in charge had a clear understanding of what was required at each level. The military personnel that engaged the beneficiaries developed an attitude different from other military personnel. These service personnel engaged with beneficiaries by looking into their welfare and supporting the rehabilitation service providers to deliver an effective service. Effective engagement requires staff training, guidance and discipline. Although some staff were naturally oriented towards engagement and did not require extensive training, staff guidance and discipline was considered imperative. The ethos of the center staff reflected professionalism, compassion, and discipline. This is evident in the positive ratings reported by the ex-combatants of the rehabilitation center staff (96.43%),44 the rehabilitation center (70.14%)45 and the rehabilitation center guards (94.57%).21
the ethos of the center staff reflected professionalism, compassion and discipline Conclusion Sri Lanka’s rehabilitation program lacked resources from its inception. These funding challenges however led to building a low-cost program with greater participation from the community as well as led the Commissioner General of Rehabilitation to work with a range of state and private sector partners. A number of international organizations and non-governmental organizations, notably the International Organization for Migration (IOM), which had access to the rehabilitation centers, also assisted and advised the government.22 Some of the essential components identified in the success of Sri Lanka’s rehabilitation program are the political will and the confidence of the leadership that rehabilitation was the right way forward. The Presidential Amnesty23 provided the hope and opportunity for beneficiaries to engage in the civilian process. However, whilst the rehabilitation program is considered a success, the state has not been able to market its success effectively. Sri Lanka succeeded in rehabilitating the bulk of the leaders and members of one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist and insurgent groups, the LTTE. Sri Lanka’s rehabilitation efforts centered on reaching the hearts and minds of the beneficiaries through several programs that led to their cognitive transformation. At the same time, it was essential that parallel to the process of rehabilitation, a clear
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 91
whilst the rehabilitation program is considered a success, the state has not been able to market its success effectively
message be given that terrorism is a grave offence and punishable by law. This was demonstrated through the indictments and required prosecutions of the most criminally culpable LTTE cadres. Rehabilitation and community engagement is a counter-terrorism strategy that is long lasting and sustainable. However, former combatants who are rehabilitated and have returned to their home communities remain vulnerable to recidivism. The aftercare process, both in social and economic integration, of the reintegrated beneficiary is a vital aspect to ensure smooth transition into community life. It is essential to conduct ongoing community engagement programs24 to prevent re-radicalization of the reintegrated beneficiaries, as well as to
build community resilience as a counter terrorism and counter insurgency strategy. Thus, continuous assessment of rehabilitation programs and the progress made by the former combatants is paramount.
About the author Malkanthi Hettiarachchi is a Clinical Psychologist who works in psychosocial skills training and rehabilitation within secure and community settings.
Endnotes 1 This article was originally published as a longer article in PRISM: Journal of the Center for Complex Operations, 4(2): 2013, p. 105 - 121. 2 Tamil Tigers are among the most dangerous and deadly extremists in the
Ex-LTTE, trainees pose with their certificates 92 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014
world. For more than three decades, the group has launched a campaign of violence and bloodshed in Sri Lanka, the island republic off the southern coast of India: “Taming the Tamil Tigers: From Here in the US,” The FBI website, available at http://www. fbi.gov/news/stories/2008/january/ tamil_tigers011008. 3 Members of the LTTE are identified as the “Tamil Tiger Terrorists” 4 Commissioner General for Rehabilitation, “Defense Seminar,” April 2011 and August 2012, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies, Colombo. 5 Rohan Gunaratna, “The Battlefield of the Mind,” UNISCI Discussion Papers, 21 (October 2009). 6 A.W. Kruglanski, M.J. Gelfand, and R. Gunaratna, “Aspects of De-radicalization”, in Terrorist Rehabilitation, ed. L. Rubin and R. Gunaratna (New York: Routledge, 2012); A.W. Kruglanski, M.J. Gelfand, and R. Gunaratna, “Terrorism as Means to an End: How Political Violence Bestows Significance”, in Meaning, Mortality and Choice, ed. P.R. Shaver and M. Mikulincer (Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association, 2012). 7 Mohamed Feisal Bin Mohamed Hassan (Associate Research Fellow, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research), Interview by Author, July 21, 2012. 8 Brigadier Dharshana Hettiarachchi (Former Commissioner General of Rehabilitation), “Terrorist Rehabilitation in Sri Lanka”, National Workshop on Terrorist Rehabilitation, July 21, 2012, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute for International Relations and Strategic Studies, Colombo.
9 The retributive justice model involves punishment by sentencing, while the restorative justice model promotes repentance and transformation. 10 “The LTTE is responsible for forcibly removing, or ethnic cleansing of Sinhalese and Muslim inhabitants from areas under its control, and using violence against those who refuse to leave. The eviction of Muslim residents happened in the north in 1990, and the east in 1992.”: “Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam”, Wikipedia, available at http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_ Tigers_of_Tamil_Eelam. Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation. During the period of the entire conflict Tamil people have lived in the South of the country amongst the Sinhalese and Muslims. Prior to the conflict all ethnic groups have lived side by side for millenia and fought together to gain independence from British rule. Today the ethnic distribution of Colombo is equal between the Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims. The schools in Colombo and the Sinhala and Tamil medium classes are testimony to this fact. 11 There was no recorded evidence of those who participated in the rehabilitation program returning to violence. 12 The staff working directly with the beneficiaries are primarily from the Army Cadet Corps – who are trained professional educators (school teachers). 13 The Tamil Tigers promoted a monoethnic separatist agenda that was weaved into a “single narrative” away from diversity, peace building, and community cohesion. 14 Brigadier Darshana Hettiarachchi, (Former) Commissioner General of
Rehabilitation, Interview by Author, January 2013. 15 BCGR statistics from 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 were presented at the Sri Lankan “Defense Seminar”, Sri Lanka in April 2011 and 2012. 16 Arie W. Kruglanski and Michele J. Gelfand (University of Maryland, College Park), “Rehabilitation of Former LTTE Cadres in Sri Lanka: A Preliminary Report”, 2011. 17 Extract from a booklet written by a 16-year old former female LTTE child soldier during her period of rehabilitation, entitled: “New Life in a Rehabilitation Centre” (unpublished). 18 Cadres are likely to disengage but not deradicalize. 19 Some of the terrorist cadres that entered rehabilitation did not disclose their involvement within the LTTE: “Master of Deception– Colombo’s Praba’ Exposed,” Tamil Tigers Activities Exposed, available at http://tamiltigeractivities.wordpress. com/2012/09/07/masters-ofdeception-colombos-praba-caught/>. 20 Interviews with rehabilitation officials, May 15, 2010. 21 Perception of whether guards are respectful and treat beneficiaries with dignity. 22 “Norway Backs IOM Reintegration of Former Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka,” International Organization for Migration, accessed at http://www. iomsrilanka.org/iom/?page_id=1554. 23 A Presidential Amnesty was provided to the Tamil Tigers that entered rehabilitation in 2009. 24 International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore, held its first International Conference on Community Engagement (ICCE), September 21, 2011.
The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2014 93
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Training Review
Vehicle Engagement Tactics By Max Joseph
W
e all spend a great amount of time in and around our vehicles. Considering this, it stands to reason that our chances of becoming involved in a lethal force encounter in a vehicle is high. In recognition of this fact, I created a threeday Vehicle Engagements Tactics course for personnel who may be required to employ their firearms from, in, and around their vehicles. Here are some of the topics we cover:
Counter Ambush Procedures Being caught in an ambush while in our
vehicles is a real possibility. Our highest chances of being hit may occur while we are arriving or departing from venues. There are four basic options presented to us if we are caught in a vehicle ambush.
Drive Through The safest way to survive a shootout is to not be there when it happens. This is where the drive through option comes into play. For example, we may be taking sporadic hits from a hasty or far ambush. The sooner we can get out of the kill zone, the safer we will be. We refer to this as “duck your head / punch your gas / and pucker your ass.” Our vehicles will
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drive over or through many obstacles that seem impassible to those who are not trained in vehicle dynamics. The driver should focus on nothing but driving. This man is critical to our survival. He has one job: “Drive the car!” Everyone else has one job also: “Protect the driver!” Only after a vehicle is completely incapacitated does it make sense for the driver to become another shooter.
Ram Through We should always use the most effective weapons at our disposal. Your vehicle is often your best weapon. Why reach for a four-pound weapon when
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you have a 4,000-pound one available? If the enemy deploys a barricade or vehicle blockade to stop your forward movement, the best option may be to ram through the obstacle. Care should be taken in controlling the speed used when making contact with the barricade. The maxim that has been taught for quite a while is to slow down as if you are going to stop. This will momentarily lull the enemy into thinking that you are in fact complying with their orders. When about 25 yards out, accelerate and prepare for contact. Too high a rate of speed on your part may cause disabling damage to your own vehicle. We are normally looking for contact between our front end and their rear axle to have the best leverage for pushing that barricade out of our path.
Reverse Out If the enemy has conducted surveillance on us and knows that our
SOPs would be to ram through any obstacles they present, they may choose to beef up their barricade. An armored car or cement truck will pose a more formidable obstacle and will negate the ramming option. In this case, either a straight reverse out or a J turn would be the next option. When involved in motorcade operations, coordinating this procedure with multiple vehicles in training is crucial.
Debuss The option to dismount is a critical decision, and it is generally best to drive through when possible. The debuss is performed in only two occasions. First, if the vehicle is fatally disabled and it becomes a bullet trap. Dynamically deploying from the vehicle using coordinated fire and movement may allow the passengers to move to a more advantageous position.
A second reason that the team may deploy from the vehicle is that it may be their mission to serve as a counter assault team for a motorcade. While the principalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s vehicle is departing the kill zone, the CAT will be delivering accurate fire into the threat to mitigate their desire and ability to continue the attack. Always seek cover. Understand what parts of your vehicle will and will not stop rounds. Always be aware of your muzzle control. While we are scrambling across seats and providing covering fire for our teammates who are deploying from the vehicle, we must be cognizant that our muzzles never flags our teammates or any part of our bodies. Keep your finger straight except when actually firing. In debuss drills, we may be firing through the windshield one second then the next second be opening our doors to deploy. During this mental transition between firing and then moving, our fingers must come out of the trigger guards and our weapons must be either decocked or put back on safe. Always remember that a well-executed ambush is fast and violent with a maximum amount of firepower brought to bear on the kill zone. As in any ambush, the faster those in the kill zone can drive through and get rounds on target, the better chance they will have of surviving the ambush. www.tftt.com
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about the author Mr. Joseph is the founder and training director of both TFTT)and the Direct Action Group. He is a former Recon Marine and has trained and worked with personnel from Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and South America and has worked protective details in Central America, South America, Eastern Europe, and Afghanistan.
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