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December 2016 / Volume 1 Published by ADA Politics Club which is a non-profit organization and not affiliated with ADA University SANAN AHMADLI Editor-in-chief, Managing Editor, Bachelor of International Affairs TOKAY AHMADOV Editor, Vice-president, ADA Politics Club ASYA MUSAYEVA Editor, Writing Center, ADA University Prof. ELNUR SOLTANOV Adviser, Dean of School of Public and International Affairs, ADA University Prof. ANAR VALIYEV Adviser, Assistant Prof. and Associate Provost, ADA University Prof. ZAUR SHIRIYEV Adviser, Senior Research Fellow, ADA University Prof. PETER TURNER Adviser, Assistant Prof. of History, ADA University Caspian Political Enquirer ADVERTISING: Tokay Ahmadov at +994 506850510 or visit Facebook page LETTER: adapoliticsclub@ada.edu.az FACEBOOK: Facebook.com/adapoliticsclub REPRODUCTION: All rights of Caspian Political Enquirer are reserved. No part of the journal may be reproduced, hosted or distributed in one form or another without prior permission from Caspian Political Enquirer. For permission, visit Facebook page or send an e-mail.
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Table of Contents
Aftandil Shahbazov
The Four Day War 5 Afgan Aslanov
Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition 12 Ilham Mammadli
Syria – Chances and Challenges 23 Kanan Aghazade
Clinton or Trump? The New Political Course After the Elections in Giant 31 Sanan Ahmadli
July 15 - AKP-Jamaat War at Its Peak 39 Tofig Bayramov
Brexit - Imagine an EU without Britain 50
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Editor’s Notes Articles which you are going to read contain two-month long effort, endeavor, passion, enthusiasm and ideas. Ideas which a university student can think about, work and research on. Sometimes you will get them weird, absurd, vague or as conspiracy theories. However, take into consideration that following articles are merely own opinions and analyses of each author. There is no intention to hurt someone, nor there is an intention for enmity and/or bias. Each of them chose a topic in which he is interested and willing to assert his own way of thinking about it. You may figure out the burden that authors have undertaken meanwhile preparing for their classes. Moreover, most probably we would not achieve our duty without the advices of our professors. Therefore, it is our responsibility to thank Mr. Soltanov, Mr. Valiyev, Mr. Turner and Mr. Shiriyev. Bear in mind that this journal has no links with ADA University where we study. Waiting for your feedbacks.
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The Four Day War
The Four Day War Aftandil Shahbazov Bachelor of International Affairs
I
t was around the year 1988 when the protests in mostly Armenian populated Karabagh started. The Armenian population wanted to break away and have their own independent state. But the the area of Nagorno Karabakh historically belongs to the State of Azerbaijan. This is a highly debated topic by both sides, but this is a topic we will save for some other time. The protests burst into a full on war in 1992 when Armenia backed separatists in Karabakh conducted large scale military operations to take strategic location from Azerbaijan. The not so fully formed army of Azerbaijan retaliated sparking a large conflict which continues to date. There was however a seize fire that was signed in 1994 by Heydar Aliyev a very key figure in the modern history of Azerbaijan. The frequent violation of the seize fire was an ordinary thing for both sides. It was the same story, snipers would eliminate soldiers from the opposing side, there would be retaliation and so on. But the morning of April 1st 2016 was different, the people of Azerbaijan woke up to the shocking news. The whole world was in shock. Bodies of young wounded soldiers were flooding 5
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the hospitals of both sides of Karabakh. Armenian military forces had planned a failed attack to capture strategic locations on the Azerbaijan side. Azerbaijan after the attack started conducting large offensives in Karabakh, TOS and Grad rockets were hitting Armenian positions for hours and days non stop. The Four-day war ended with the inevitable victory of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan armed forces were able to capture strategic points in the Nagorno Karabakh area. The war ended on the 5th of April with a seize fire agreement signed in Moscow between the Chiefs of staff of Armenia and Azerbaijan. A lot of main points could be taken from these sets of events but, we are going to look at only two; ‘Azerbaijan gained a diplomatic and moral hand in the Four-day war’, ‘Vienna meeting were also a big part of the Four-day war.’
Grad missiles are fired by Azerbaijani forces in the village of Gapanli, Azerbaijan, April 3 It is key to remember that the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev left Baku for a meeting with The US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas Shannon. It was during this time that Armenia started its large offensive trying to break through Azerbaijan’s 6
The Four Day War
defense lines. Many civil areas were hit by Armenian bombardment; many civilians were killed by the strikes. The absence of Ilham Aliyev did not prove as effective as the Armenian side though it would. The Minister of Defense Zakir Hasanov responded with a defensive attack followed by an offense that not only pushed back the Armenian forces but also helped capture major strategic positions previously controlled by the Armenian army. This attack attracted the attention of many nations to a long forgotten conflict that was though to be dissolved in the pages of history. The power of the Armenian lobby had brought many states to defend Armenia in this conflict. But the latest Four Day War somewhat proved the power of Azerbaijan, Armenia was left in the shadow of Azerbaijan that was now in the spotlight. Russia had always secretly but effectively taken the side of Armenia through out history up to today, But, something had changed, states were no longer bashing Azerbaijan about harassing Armenia. Perhaps Armenia was sure that Russia would step in during this conflict, but according to Armenia, Russia had broken The Collective Security Treaty Organization that required the members to intervene in case one member is involved in a conflict. The Armenian population was outraged by this to the point where there were protests against Russia. Meanwhile in Baku the capital of Azerbaijan people were flooding the streets wanting a full out war against the Armenian backed separatists of The Nagorno Karabakh republic. First time in decades the war had brought people together, it had united the long forgotten spirit of the Azerbaijan. War had also brought the people of Armenia together but, it was on a more negative note. In Yerevan people were protesting against the weak involvement of Russia. But was The Collective Security Treaty really supposed to intervene? The occupied territories of Nagorno-Karabagh has not been recognized as an independent state by any country in the world. The intervention of Russia to this conflict would therefore not be valid. On paper Armenia was not involved in this Four Day War, it is supposed to be the ‘Independent State of Nagorno-Karabagh’ against Azerbaijan. This of course is on paper, but in reality Armenia had its full support and sent weapons and personnel 7
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to Nagorno-Karabagh. It is natural for major organizations like the UN NATO and etc. to call both sides for peace, but major states like Pakistan Turkey Israel and so on were supporting Azerbaijan in this conflict. Needless to say, the tables had turned on Armenia.
Thomas Shannon meeting with the President Ilham Aliyev, April 1, 2016 After the seize fire was signed on the 5th of April, a meeting was called for between the Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan. The presidents had not met since 2014 and were meeting on the 16th of May in Vienna under the auspice of the OSCE Minsk Group. Even though no written agreement was made, it is possible to say that this meeting had marked an important milestone on the road to solving the Na8
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gorno Karabagh conflict. The presidents had agreed to meet later on to discuss the comprehensive settlement of the conflict. The OSCE Minsk Group is to be blamed for not taking immediate action during The Four Day war, the group did not even have emergency meeting while the war was raging in Karabagh. The Co-Chairs of OSCE Minsk group are Russia, US, and France. The OSCE has not done much to solve the conflict, in the more than 2 decades that have passed little to nothing has been solved by the group. The requests of the opposing sides have not been accepted by either side. Azerbaijan’s bold stance on not letting even one district belong to Armenia, and Armenia’s stubbornness to not return any of the Districts to Azerbaijan has let both sides to a stand of, it is only a matter of time before either one side ‘pulls the trigger first’ Even with this much aggression overtime Azerbaijan and Armenia have started to understand that war is not the only answer. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed on the fact that a conflict between the country will not solve much in fact it could bring more harm than good. War will bring much damage to the infrastructure of both States. Even if war were to break out and Azerbaijan were to take back all of its land, billions of dollars would be needed to rebuild the war torn areas of Karabakh, but this is a little price the people of Azerbaijan would be willing to pay to take back their land. But, would it be a little price for the state of Azerbaijan? This remains as the question. War would damage the already damaged economy of Azerbaijan. After all this damage rebuilding would cripple both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s economy. For people on the streets it is an easy assumption that is made about the fact that Azerbaijan would in fact annihilate Armenia on a full scale war. But at what cost? Azerbaijan is on the top of the list when it comes to how much of the whole country’s spending goes to the Military budget but the hardest part for both sides would be what comes after the war, which is reconstruction. But many government officials of Azerbaijan including Ilham Aliyev have stated that war is the only option if else fails.
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‘Lele Tepe’ position captured by the Azerbaijani Army photographed by a retreating Armenian Soldier The fact that the Nagorno Karabagh Conflict has been left unsolved for over 2 decades is alarming, leaving war inevitable. Latest gains by the Azerbaijan army not only comes to show that things are not the way they were before but, has also risen the diplomatic prestige of Azerbaijan. For this conflict to end peacefully Armenia must withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, so more than half a million Azerbaijani refugees could return to their homes. Then peace could be made between the people of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Peace is key for the Caucasian region because, lots of economic gains could be made with the corporation of the two states that could help the growth of the region. Like they say time is the best medicine, we will have to just wait and see. “The Defenders of Our Land... Live on in The Minds of Our People...” 10
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References: 1. Gafarli O. (2016, April 13). Secrets of the Four-Day Karabakh War. Retrieved from http://nationalinterest.org/blog/secrets-thefour-day-karabakh-war-15772 2. BBC (2016, April 6). Nagorno-Karabakh profile. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18270325
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Afgan Aslanov
Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition
Afgan Aslanov Bachelor of International Affairs
Understanding the Russia’ role in Ukrainian Crisis
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wo geopolitical powers - Russian Federation and Western countries do not have a stable relationship after collapse of the Soviet Union. NATO enlargement and membership with the EU in post-soviet region are usually protested by Kremlin while Western alliance sees Russia as a main power to destabilize the new independent states. These traditional opponents have encountered several times for world order, especially with attitudes to the conflicts. However, after 2013, confrontation between the West and Russia increased strictly because of conflict in Ukraine. In this competition, both side blames each other to escalate the conflict and intervention to the Ukraine. Result of this crisis will determine the winner in Russia-Western struggle, therefore, none of them will retreat its position. Both sides have specific plans and ambitions to apply in Ukraine for achieving success in front of its adversary.
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Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition
Understanding the Russia and West’s role in Ukrainian Crisis The last months of 2013 and early periods in 2014 were a beginning point of the most serious situation in Ukraine after independence. Refusing to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union resulted widespread protest in Kiev which known as “Euromaidan” too. Failure of suppressing the demonstrations by military forces made the President Victor Yanukovych exile to Russia at the end of February, but shortly before Ukrainian Parliament also removed him from the presidential post in 2014. Western supporting Euromaidan was look like to achieve its purpose changing the government and getting closer connection with European Union. Nonetheless, while instability continued in the country, the Russian Federation which having a huge ethnic, historical and especially military relations with
Russian President Vladimir Putin with head of Crimean government Sergei Aksionov, chairman of Crimean parliament Vladimir Konstantinov, and head of Sevastopol city administration Alexei Chaliy sign the act of reunification Crimea with Russia in the Grand Kremlin Palace, March 18, 2014. Alexey Druzhinyn/ Newscom/EPA 13
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not only central government but also regional administrations did not keep its silence about ongoing events. The first intervention by Russia was to take the control of Crimean Peninsula. From military, strategic
Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk, February 1, 2015. Maxim Shemetov/REUTERS
and ethnic perceptive, Crimea possesses a great importance for Russia such as having a link to the Black Sea as a harbour. Starting from late February, all key buildings in the peninsula were blocked by Russian troops, so that Crimean new authority held a referendum on the status of the region. Consequences of the 16 march referendum created the situation to incorporate the region with the Russian Federation after 2 days. However, most of the Western leaders and Ukraine consider the referendum as a violation of international, mutual and state principles. Annexation of Crimea is mostly accepted illegal action by EU and NATO. The second intervention by Russia is believed to destabilize the eastern regions of Ukraine. Stimulating from Crimean event, ethnic Russian people in Donbass region started the demonstrations and oc14
Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition
cupied crucial state buildings throughout changing Ukrainian flags into to Russia and so-called Donetsk Republic’s banners. The central government was losing the domination over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, so military operations became an inevitable option to retake the control of the districts. At the beginning of operations, offensive by Ukraine was successful, and successive attacks resulted liberations of several cities from separatists. Nevertheless, in August, Ukrainian troops were besieged by separatists and Russian army in Ilovaysk which cause at least 1000 Ukrainian soldier death (Yahoo News; 2015). Separatists began new offensives against Ukraine with active support of Russia and they invaded several areas again in the region. Two stabilize the Ukraine, European countries commenced to establish a bond between Russia and Ukraine to solve the problem by negotiations. Firstly, in September 5, 2014, initial agreement was signed by Ukraine, separatist republics, Russia and OSCE to end the military operations. This agreement provided the decentralization of power and giving extra opportunities to the Lugansk and Donetsk districts. Despite the Minsk contract, fighting did not stop; Ukrainian and separatist forces confronted several fronts especially in Donetsk Airport. In January 2015, tension reached its culmination point in the region resulted withdraw of government forces from the airport. After controlling a whole Donetsk city, separatist forces attacked to Debaltseve which combines a railway and road access with Lugansk and Donetsk cities. To stop military operations, leaders of Germany France, Ukraine and Russia met in Minsk to achieve the new ceasefire in 12 February (BBC NEWS; 2015). However, in first steps, new contract was not worked too and Debaltseve fall into pro-Russian’ controls.
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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met for peace talks in Minsk. Alexander Zemlianichenko, Pool/AP
Analysing Western-Russian relationship during Conflict
Euromaidan and interventions to Ukraine have hurt the relation ship between Europe and Russia dramatically. Although most of the European states corporate as an alliance, each member has its perceptive to treat with Russia. It would be better to look the relationships from different sides. It is also advantageous to investigate the problem from Kremlin perceptive because Moscow identifies it as a Russian– West confrontation, claiming that the crisis was triggered by NATO’s aspiration to enlarge into the region where Russia’s vital interests lie. 16
Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition
The NATO leaders’ “family” photo in Warsaw, July 8, 2016. Susan Walsh/AP
Russia-Baltic States There is an inevitability for Russia to establish a defence border, and post-soviet countries are exactly part of such a frontier. However, Kremlin has lost Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) to NATO and European Union in the rivalry, as a result, today, Estonia is the nearest NATO member to the second important Russian city Sankt-Petersburg. After the Russian involvements, these states and its alliances took special concentration on their security. Having Russian minority in those countries, the local governments feared possibility of the same Ukrainian scenario (Licínia Simão; 2016) Likewise, Russian navy and air forces have violated the borders of those states several times. Therefore, to minimalize the Russian aggression and increase the security environment Baltic States demanded more ac17
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tive NATO presence in the region. This requirement was accepted the by leaders of this organization and 4 military battalions was decided to deploy in Baltics and Eastern Poland (CNN; 2016). This action is considered as a provocation by Kremlin against itself. Consequently, current situation between Baltic States and Russia is strained and risky not only for the region but also the world by threatened NATO-Russia confrontation. On the other hand, possibility of the war between these countries is more controversial. First reason is that any confrontation is the region will be widespread and destructive: after 2 world war, it is not cogent enough to start extensive military operations from both sides. Another factor is military preparation which demand huge expenditure. After the end of the Cold War, European states have diminished their funds to the military sector, like that, crisis in early periods of Russia also affected the budget resulted decline in military department. The last and dissuasive aspect is danger of using nuclear weapons. Russian Federation holds a great number of nuclear bombs similarly, members of NATO have the same weapons of mass destruction. It is obvious that in the battlefield, weak side will use nuclear bombs to stop its opponent.
Russia and European Union Annexation of Crimea and interventions to Ukraine forced EU to create some economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia demanding respect to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the crisis, it was comprehensible that the West was not organized and willing to apply military force to alter Russia’s aggressive performance in Ukraine. Sanctions were the West’s only possible weapon, and they can be effective in damaging Russia’s economy while at the same time they may push Putin to decrease Russia’s connection with the West. Simultaneously, Parliamentary As18
Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition
sembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has terminated Russia’s voting rights. The decision was admitted by 145 votes because of Moscow’s proceeding danger of “military force” founded a “grave violation of international law” The Assembly also suspended Russia’s right to participate in election observation missions.( The Guardian; 2014) On the other side, relationship between Russia and EU cannot collapse totally in terms of depending both sides from each other. The first factor is huge reserves of Russia’s natural resources especially gas fuel. EU economy needs Russia in its perceptive, so that EU will not apply effective pressure. In a similar way, Russia also needs technological innovations and European markets. Another reason is that both sides are enormous geopolitical and world powers, and they have a great influence in the procedures. Therefore, in several problems including Ukraine crisis, Kremlin and Brussel have to work together to achieve the peaceful solutions.
Consequences of Crisis It is clear that because of Ukraine, EU and Russia are in the lowest point since post-soviet periods. Kremlin and Brussel have reached
A map indicating 2 unions and Ukraine in-between; blue - European Union, orange - Eurasian Union, red - Ukraine
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their some aims; nonetheless, there is no certain winner. It would be better to look at consequences from each side’s perceptive
Results for Russia
Ukrainian conflict has internal and foreign outcomes for the Moscow. Sanctions on Russia and decline in oil price have affected the economy adversely. The central bank has devalued the currency, so people’s real income fell after 2014. However, in Russian community, Vladimir Putin is seen as a hero and defender of Russians in abroad. Similarly, annexation of Crime considered unification with motherland, as a result, supporters of Russian President increased in the society (Washington Post; 2015). Despite the support of Russian people, Kremlin and Putin are admitted aggressor and danger for the world security. By cancelling the Budapest Memorandum, Russia lost its credibility in front of foreigners in terms of security guarantees.(Goncharenko;2014) Likewise, although Moscow disconnect Ukraine and EU by establishing crucial barriers, Ukraine also disappear in Russia’s friends and Ukrainian people see the Russia as an enemy
Result for European Union
Leaders of European Union has realized that they are weak to confront the Russia and they need to reorganize the structure of this organization. From Baltic case, it was clear that EU needs USA military assistance to resist any invasion or provocation. Old continent also failed in Minsk agreements and Debaltseve battle. However, Brussel accomplished its crucial ambition to separate Ukraine from Russia’s block. In future, Ukraine can be a beneficial partner for EU. Additionally, EU seriously damage the Russia’s strategic plan which combination of post-soviet countries around the Eurasian Union. Ukraine is 20
Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on Russian-Western Competition
a core element of this organization; thus disappearance of this state is an important problem.
Conclusion
Since fall of Soviet Union, relationship between the Russian Federation and Western countries has dropped to Cold War times. Rivalry become more widespread; however, there is no exact winner. In Ukrainian case, Russia is like a winner. It has stopped NATO and EU enlargement in Ukraine, and combined Crimea to itself. Creating “frozen conflict” Russia also got an opportunity to influence to Ukraine which is the worst situation for the West. Despite the economic sanctions and regression, supporters of Russian President got a majority in the community. Russia also forced Western states not to argue annexation of Crime by establishing a fear on the Baltic States. On the other hand, Brussel is the winner of the future. Firstly, this organization damage the Eurasian Union seriously and prevent itself from the new rival alliance. EU also triggers fluctuations in Russian economy which resulted retardation in Putin’s geopolitical ambitions. References: 1. Przybyla K.A. (2015, February). Conflict in Ukraine from the European Point of View: A Policy Perspective and Recommendations. Retrieved from http://www.beyondintractability.org/library/ conflict-ukraine-european-point-vie 2. (2015, February 12). Ukraine ceasefire: New Minsk agreement key points. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31436513 3. (2015, August 29). Ukraine commemorates anniversary of ‘massacre’ at Battle of Ilovaysk. Retrieved from http://www.euronews.com/2015/08/29/ukraine-commemorates-anniversary-of-massacre-at-battle-of-ilovaysk 21
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4. Brown R. (2016, June 13). NATO chief: 4 battalions to Eastern Europe amid tensions with Russia. Retrieved from http://edition.cnn. com/2016/06/13/politics/nato-battalions-poland-baltics-russia/ 5. Birnbaum M. (2015, June 24). Putin’s approval ratings hit 89 percent, the highest they’ve ever been. Retrieved from https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/06/24/putins-approval-ratings-hit-89-percent-the-highest-theyve-ever-been/ 6. Goncharenko R. (2014, December 5). Ukraine’s forgotten security guarantee: The Budapest Memorandum. Retrieved from http:// www.dw.com/en/ukraines-forgotten-security-guarantee-the-budapest-memorandum/a-18111097 7. Harding L. (2014, April 10). Russia delegation suspended from Council of Europe over Crimea. Retrieved from https://www. theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/10/russia-suspended-council-europe-crimea-ukraine
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Syria – Chances and Challenges
Syria – Chances and Challenges
Ilham Mammadli Master of Diplomacy and International Affairs
I
n March 2011 Syria joined the list of Arab countries, which experienced anti-government protests, as a part of the so-called Arab Spring. The peaceful demonstrations by citizens received a violent response from the government forces, which lead to the escalation of the situation in the country, which went out of control very quickly. By July rebels were already fighting he government’s forces, with civilians joining the opposition. Also Free Syrian Army was organized and fighting against the regime forces. These battles inside the country turned to Civil war and then lead to intervention of another states to Syria, forming of different rebel and jihadist groups fighting against President Bashar Assad and each other, each having their own different goals and purposes. Divisions between opposition, various ethnic groups and other parties complicate the situation in Syria today even more. The five-year horrible war exhausted the country and its citizens. As a result of this armed conflict over 250,000 people has been killed, 23
Ilham Mammadli
half of them being civilians. Air strikes are destroying cities and terrible human rights violations take place every day. According to UN, approximately 6.6 million people are internally displaced and 4.7 million people are refugees.
Ruined buildin in Homs, Syria. Dusan Vranic/AP
So, the question, which this paper aims to answer is the following: Is there a light at the end of the tunnel in Syria conflict? Obviously the straight and precise answer to this question cannot exist, since the conflict has gone too far and there are so many parties involved in conflict, which have their own aims. Further in the article we will try to analyze and see what can be results and consequences of the actions by parties and will also try to see which measures can lead to the end of the crisis. As it is known, significant place in Syria conflict belongs to Turkey. Differently from other actors, Turkey’s goals are more complicated and difficult to implement. The main issue without doubt is Kurds of 24
Syria – Chances and Challenges
Syria in border with Turkey. Turkey have recently launched the ‘Euphrates Shield’ operation with the aim to fight Kurdish groups in Syria border and support Free Syrian Army on the ground. However, as many experts say, this operation can turn to be a very huge problem for Turkey, because by going further and further inside Syria, Turkey can be a target for different actors in the conflict. For instance, despite the fact that US and Turkey cooperate in this conflict, US support for some Kurdish groups makes Turkey nervous and vice-versa, Turkey’s enlarging its operations towards these groups can make US angry. This, in its turn, can result in a new confrontation between US and Turkey, which is desirable neither for Turkey nor US in time when Assad’s army makes success.
Turkish tanks launching operation ‘Euphrates Shield’ on the Turkish-Syrian border, August 25, 2016, Gaziantep, Turkey. Umit Bektas/Reuters
The interesting point here, however, is that Free Syrian Army is
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too weak without Turkey’s support in fight with ISIS. Turkey has no option except to continue to support Free Syrian Army not to let ISIS come closer to Turkey. On the other hand, if we imagine that even Turkey does not fight with Kurdish groups (which is not the case), it is still very difficult to Turkey to make it clear for US and allies. So, any actions by Turkey on going further is intercepted by US as actions became against US-backed groups. This makes Turkey’s situation very difficult, and at the same time, obviously, complicates the process of reaching the peace. Another confrontation can come to Turkey from Assad’s Army, because Free Syrian Army fights not only with ISIS, but with Syrian Army as well. Here, potential threats for Turkey can be the supports of Assad in face of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Maybe recent normalization of relations with Russia can exclude Russia from the list, but everybody knows Putin well. Nevertheless, if Turkey continues going further on the ground, it may be involved in full scale war, which, taking into consideration the domestic situation in Turkey and its current situation is not the thing that President Erdogan would love to have. Another problem in solution is consistency in Syria and there is indeed basis for this and viability as other problematic questions, given that opposition in Syria rejects any option of settlement of the crisis, that keeps Bashar Assad in power. However interestingly, in one of his latest public speeches, US Secretary of State John Kerry has not mentioned anything about Assad leaving the power, which he used to say a lot before. For the first time Kerry said that it is very important that Assad works and cooperates with ‘us’ and takes very seriously his obligations. One can interpret this as Assad changing from enemy to a partner for US, which is also not an impossible thing. Whether this can be considered as the first part of Russian victory in Syria remains an open question. The US hopes that the last agreements with Russia on some points and its behavior of not intervening too much to Syria may attract Rus26
Syria – Chances and Challenges
sia to cooperation and partnership. It can be thought, that if Russia stops it military actions and withdraws from Syria, President Assad’s success can easily be evaporated without Russian back-up, which again means Assad’s defeat. But it is unlikely that Russia will ‘stop’ so easily. Nevertheless, if the peace really starts in Syria that leaves Bashar Assad in power, Putin can celebrate the victory, and US would have to recognize this for the peace to be maintained.
A boat containing at least 500 refugees who are migrating to Italy through Mediterranean, October 2014. Massimo Sestini
Yet another difficulty is Aleppo. Being one of the largest cities of Syria and divided between regime control and rebel control, it has high strategic importance to everyone fighting in Syria. Aleppo was the arena of the fiercest battles because of the following reasons: 1) Aleppo has strategic supply lines, and whoever controls it gains big advantage in that sense; 2) there are huge number of civilians in this city and delivering humanitarian aid for them is very important; 3) Together with civilians, Aleppo is the place for the huge opposition forces, winner 27
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of the battle for Aleppo will have comparative advantage over other parties; 4) This city is can be called a ‘barrier for the peace’, because despite being saved by Russia and then even having success, Assad has seen the power of opposition in Aleppo, which showed that the conflict is far from being over to Assad, Russian and Iran. So, if Russia and Iran will get ‘tired’ of supporting Assad, the fight may continue again for unknown time and this time in advantage of the rebels. However, it is still unclear how the things will go on there.
A Syrian refugee holding his baby in a Bulgarian refugee camp set in Harmanli, a town in the south-east of Sofia, November 12, 2013. Nikolay Doychinova/AFP
As we mentioned above, one of the serious issues is that President Assad gets military support and assistance from Iran and Hezbollah as well. These sides’ compliance to peace plan is very doubtful. Firstly, because Iran will never agree on US lead coalition’s victory in the region, which would mean decrease in its influence in the Middle East; 28
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second, Hezbollah was using Syria’s territory to fight with Israel, so it may also be interested in saving Assad’s power to be able to use Syria as a buffer land against Israel. This is one of the most difficult challenges to solve the crisis as well. In the next few paragraphs we will make an effort to stress the actions, which can bring an end to war and open the way for the peace. The real cooperation and partnership between the two coalitions in Syria in all spheres is very important and essential for the solution — i.e. the coalition leaded by Russia and the US. This will mean to target the same thing for the key regional and other powers against ISIS and is probably one of the best ways to break down the so called ‘state’. But maybe the most difficult and serious problem in Syria is that neither US nor Russia fully trust each other. Even officials of both countries have mentioned the lack of trust before, both while discussing the US sanctions against Russia because of Ukraine crisis and in other meetings, which remains the question of high priority and maybe the first to be solved as soon as possible. In Syria, the fight, which is lead against ISIS by Syrian army and other forcers should be supported by international powers, meaning that states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey have to direct the rebel forces which they support to cooperate with government and other forces against ISIS. Again, as mentioned above, ‘targeting one enemy’ will ease this fight and may bring to the fast solution. As soon as ISIS will be eliminated, the complete final solution of Syrian Civil War will not be that far away. All in all, there is still a chance for the resolution of the critical situation in Syria, which affects the whole region and all the world in different ways in different spheres. If the world leaders show a real desire for the solution and use the opportunities, then the peace is not that far. Otherwise, we will have to wait for ‘the light at the end of the tunnel’ and follow ‘the same old story’ for unknown time again.
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References: 1. Rodgers L., Gritten D., Offer J. and Asare P. (2016, March 11). Syria: The story of the conflict. Retrieved form http://www.bbc.com/ news/world-middle-east-26116868 2. Joshi S. (2016, August 8). Syria war: Why the battle for Aleppo matters. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middleeast-37008100 3. Mousavian S. H. (2016, March 29). How to Resolve the Syrian Crisis and Alleviate the ISIS Threat. Retrieved from http://www. huffingtonpost.com/seyed-hossein-mousavian/syria-crisis-isis-solutions_b_9558732.html 4. wEuphrates Shield Trap: Turkey May Find Itself Bogged Down in Northern Syria. (2016, September 8). Retrieved from https://sputniknews.com/politics/201609081045086012-euphrates-shield-turkey-syria-quagmire/ 5. Friedland E., al-Tamimi A. J., Landis J. (2006). Who’s Who in the Syrian Civil War. Retrieved from http://www.clarionproject.org/ factsheet/whos-who-syrian-war
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Clinton or Trump? The New Political Course After the Elections in Giant
Clinton or Trump? The New Political Course After the Elections in Giant Kanan Aghazade Bachelor of Public Affairs
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hat is obvious is this election is going to be important for all countries in the world because the USA has a significant role in our planet. The USA did not have any serious competitors after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. For that reason, many governments and organizations think about the results of the election. The partners and non-partners want to know new people in administration and new directions of the political course of the most influential country in the world. Unfortunately, our world does not provide us with the positive picture. Terrorism exported from the Middle East to the heart of European civilization. Furthermore, terrorism distributes massively among all countries and some radical parties and organizations use such a negative picture for their own purposes. Internal crisis in the European Union can be a necessary evidence. Low oil prices decreased the finances of the traditional friends of the USA in Arabic peninsula and destroyed the enemy economies such as Venezuela. Pessimism dominates the future expectations of many people 31
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who do not believe that new president will find effective solutions.
On July 20, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump—and the super-PACs that back them—reported to the Federal Election Commission how much money they raised and spent through June. Bloomberg
We see one extraordinary and untraditional candidate for the traditional American political system in this election. A businessman, Donald Trump is the official candidate of Republicans, one of the oldest parties in United States that is right-wing and conservative. However, the ideas of the official candidate are different from the standard approaches of the party which nominated him for the national elections in November. He offers a new diplomatic, economic, military relationship with the main geopolitical competitors such as Russia. Trump supports the restriction of the illegal immigration from the countries of Latin America and he thinks that these illegal immigrants bring crime and drugs to the American cities. He destroyed the historical views and stereotypes of the political thinking in the USA. This tendency happens in the UK, Germany, France and Spain among their citizens. For instance, the outcome of the Brexit, high rating and 32
Clinton or Trump? The New Political Course After the Elections in Giant
popularity of ultra-right nationalist in France, the activation of the ultra-left and separatists in Spain. It is arguable that populism can also negatively affect the citizens of countries with the high political culture, unfortunately. Donald Trump is one of the most famous businessmen and a star of the reality show in TV. We do not know exactly who will take new positions in the state department from his team. Republican party received traditionally a big help and assistance from the military oriented people and spheres. CIA and high command of army supported them. But the situation is radically different from the old time. Trump does not have any experience in the state service. He had strange opinion about the status of Crimea and the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Supporters listen as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Allen County War Memorial Coliseum, May 1, 2016, Fort Wayne, Ind. Darron Cummings/AP
According to him, Ukraine does not have any economic interests 33
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for the Americans and geographically far from the American business projects. It is really difficult to understand and predict the logical actions of person with the populistic manner of behavior. Until this month he did not really understand the real political situation around this region. He said that it is responsibility of our European friends to settle this issue because the Ukraine brings benefits for the Europeans but not for us. Our partners must try to decide own concerns without us and it is enough that Americans decided on behalf of their friends. According to his speeches, NATO is a huge pressure for American economy. It is sad picture to imagine him as a head of state for many people living in Baltic countries and Ukraine. However, Eastern Europe is the most important reign in the world and the dominancy here can bring the global leadership and strategic initiative, according to the famous theory of Halford Mackinder.
Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally, June 6, 2016, Long Beach, California. AP/John Locher
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Clinton or Trump? The New Political Course After the Elections in Giant
Trump said that he will destroy ISIS with relying all military and financial responsibility upon Russia. It seems that Trump does not like criticizing Russia and he does not provide any guarantee of security for European friends. Furthermore, the leader of Russia is better than Obama for him but it is just words for increasing his rating as a peaceful candidate with the global thinking and innovative methods. The opinion that he has some contacts with president Putin is meaningless, though. It is impossible for any special agencies and services to influence elections in USA from the other side of the ocean. In case, he becomes the president of the USA, perhaps he will change his specific style of speaking. He will forget all nice words about Putin. We do not expect any serious threats from his leadership in political scene because of compulsory American politics, ‘checks and balances’ but it will be interesting place. The old political elite will not give him any chances for the serious changes and we do not think that he will find maneuvers against them. Elites have a significant impact on congress and Trump understand that without their agreement he cannot approve and realize any changes in practice. For that reason, economic sanctions against the Russian Federation will continue without any doubts. Moreover, most probably, everyone would agree on the argument that the USA is the most powerful country in the world and therefore, many political forces outside the United States would like to influence the election process. The Russian Federation is, perhaps, one of them which is willing to see a pro-Russian president in the White House. Russia would try to help his favorite candidate as well and it agitates for the role of financial unfairness and the power of lobbies in the national elections. The main reason for such an agitation is the manipulation of public opinion about the US. To some extent, Russia received some experienced and considerably professional special services from its predecessor – USSR - who have all opportunities and motives for using the secret cyber services. Therefore, Russian cyber pirates have 35
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a good reputation in this sphere. So it is highly possible that the pirates destroyed the computer service of democratic party and leaked a significant amount of information to the mass media. That information simply includes that the leadership of party resorted to all possible ways against Benny Sanders who was the main competitor of Clinton within the party. Certainly, Democrats do not accept such accusations and Sanders ignores for the sake of the unity among all members and in order to legalize the official choice of the party. However, it provides a logical reason for the supporters of Trump to be suspicious about it. They are already thinking about the falsification of elections because many Americans support his opponent. Furthermore, they have begun to organize some volunteer groups who will monitor and supervise the elections. On the other hand, still adherents of Clinton are afraid of any impact of Moscow on the elections. Trump criticizes military interventions in Iraq because it increases the role of Iran in the Middle East and creates wonderful opportunities for ISIS. He blamed Iraqis that they could not invent and develop own military services regardless of the great American assistance and free professional, high technological weapons. Simple and decentralized terrorists occupied the big cities in the north of the country. Trump does not support any military operations in other continents. He argues that these are very expensive and such military interventions are huge pressure for the state budget. Americans understand that approach but they shocked about his views about the great wall around the state boundaries with Mexico. Mexico is an attribute of the crime and violence for him but the USA has a considerably large population of Spanish etymology (especially historical Mexican territories in the south-west). They will become a strong base for Clinton and she perfectly uses that joker card. Hillary Clinton once was the First Lady of the USA. She was a senator from New-York and a former State Secretary. She possessed a huge experience in governmental positions. She supported the mili36
Clinton or Trump? The New Political Course After the Elections in Giant
tary operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as a senator. As a State Secretary, Clinton played a substantial role in operation of Libya. Trump is against any active political involvement in any parts of the world except the North America because such wars, campaigns and interventions destroy the state budget and became an awful responsibility for the taxpayers, while Clinton argues that all military operations bring the strategical benefits for the USA. However, Clinton is not able to provide any plan for collective struggling with ISIS. For the rationalists and NE conservators the course of Clinton would be much more clear. Azerbaijan began real diplomatic connections with the USA during the presidency of Bill Clinton. Many projects realized with the transnational corporations during that time. Hilary Clinton visited Azerbaijan during her reign as the head of the department and knows specific sides of the region. Trump cannot imagine any uncommon things about this part of the world. If Clinton will come to the power, we would possibly see the revenge of American power in Eastern Europe. It will be easy to make communication with the person who understands real interests and geopolitical games in the world without any sentimental principles and emotional speeches. Clinton will concentrate more seriously on Russia and we have not forgotten her comments about the personality of Vladimir Putin yet. It does not matter that country is powerful and rich. Nowadays, it is impossible to find effective solutions for the regional conflicts without assistance and cooperation with other players. Our life is unpredictable and we can only guess what will happen tomorrow. But we must remember one thing presidents cannot change anything radically in the stable political system of the USA. It is impossible and they can just change the forms. All of them know, how finished the political activities of Presidents Avraham Lincoln (1860-1863), John Kennedy (1960-1963) and Richard Nixon (1968-1974) against the well-structured system.
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References: 1. Griswold A. (2015, October 23). Fiorina: Hillary Would ‘Trounce’ Donald Trump in General Election. Retrieved from http://www.mediaite.com/online/fiorina-hillary-would-trounce-donald-trump-ingeneral-election/ 2. Mediaite TV (2016, March 8). WATCH LIVE: Donald Trump Holds Another Election Night Press Conference. Retrieved from http:// www.mediaite.com/online/watch-live-donald-trump-holds-another-election-night-press-conference/ 3. Raman M. (2016, June 30). Renowned Statistician Says Hillary Clinton Will Win The Election. Retrieved from http://www.benzinga. com/news/16/06/8170260/renowned-statistician-says-hillary-clinton-will-win-the-election 4. Inca kola news: A must-read article on donald trump and the USA election (2016). Chatham: Newstex. 5. US election: Donald trump under media microscope. (2016, Oct 03). The Financial Express
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July 15 - AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak
July 15 AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak
Sanan Ahmadli Bachelor of International Affairs
A coup that is far away from being successful ver 10000 people were taken in custody in Turkey of whom more than 7000 are military personnel, 151 are generals, about 300 are police, and at least 2000 are judges and prosecutors making this the biggest purge ever since 1923. Turkey has experienced 4 successful coups in its history so far – in 1960 and 1980 armed forces confiscated the government, in 1971 and 1997 the government was pushed to resign. But the last one was far away from being a coup rather than ‘successful’. At this point our story begins; What was the purpose and who organized? What went wrong or was it deliberately organized wrong? And finally, who were the winners and losers of July 15? This article is going to analyze the issue in order to find consistent answers. However, before answering those questions it would be better to have a look at the coup phase by phase: 04:00 PM – National Intelligence Organization of Turkey (‘MIT’) warns General Staff of Turkey of ‘a possible military activity’. Hulusi Akar (Chief of the General Staff) delivers 3 commands: 1) None of any air vehicles (planes, helicopters, etc.) shall takeoff
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until further notice and those that are already in the air shall return to their bases. 2) All necessary measures shall be taken regarding to any personnel concerns and vehicle takeoffs in the Army Aviation Headquarters. 3) Mobilization of tanks and any other armored vehicles shall be intercepted and all necessary measures shall be taken in order to intercept in School of Armored Troops and Education Divisional Headquarters, Etimesgut, Ankara.
Statistics of detainees. Anadolu Agency
09:00 PM – Plotters gets aware of this information leakage and sets the plot earlier than it was actually planned to be launched (original time was 03:00 AM, 16 July). At this point a question mark appears: would you undertake the risk of changing plot time considering that the forces which are parts of the plot still not mobilized, traffic is fully active, people – only power that can prevent you - are in the streets, those whom you put at the target board (President, PM, government 40
July 15 - AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak officials, and other armed forces which are not the part of plot) can be aware of what you are going to do and quickly take a cover? I guess, nobody would. One may catch the point and assert that if there is an information leakage and commands by Chief of the General Staff you have nothing to do but to launch the plot immediately. No, that is not easy as you thought. In both versions either at 9 PM or 3 AM you have a failure risk because your opponent is already aware. So in such a circumstance initial plan (3 AM) seems more efficient because at least you will not encounter much of a civilian confrontation because nobody including officials actually knows the extent of coup and the plotters so that nobody would pour into the streets and still your plot members are secure. Therefore, you will be able to mobilize your forces, at least a significant part of it.
Plotters block access to the Bosphorus bridge which links Asian and European sides of Istanbul. July 15, 2016. Gurcan Ozturk/AFP
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10:00 PM – Plotters choose second plan – early mobilization – and seizes ‘Bosphorus’ and ‘Fatih Sultan Mehmet’ bridges, bilateral traffic interrupted. 11:00 PM – Plotters fires its first shot at the civilians. 11:45 PM – ‘Ataturk’ airport is seized. In a couple of minutes, people at home starts to pour into the streets. 00:13 AM – Tijen Karatash – a speaker of TRT (Turkish Radio and Television Corp.) reads the proclamation of coup. Now let us go around these 4 actions because next violation appears. First of all, neither bridges nor airports are important at this phase if you have not even neutralized government officials and political party leaders. Second, shooting at the furious citizens would have no benefit for you but worsening the situation and creating new obstacles. Third, before declaring the seizure of government you have to be sure that all TV channels, internet, and satellite connection are deactivated. We are living in a cyber era and TRT is not the only channel in the whole country to inform the people about what is going on as it was in 1960s or 1980s. So first, a plotter completes his mission by deactivating those information networks then declares. Plotters only tried to seize the satellite (in case of Turkey, ‘Turksat’) at 00:57 AM after everyone in Turkey was aware of what is happening in the country. However, none of aforementioned mistakes is important, above all, if you have already violated the first rule – seizure of the head of the government - Mr. R.T. Erdogan - either dead or alive before doing anything else as Kenan Evren, who was the Chief of the General Staff and the head of plot, successfully did in 1980 by seizing and exiling PM, Suleyman Demirel - head of ‘AP’ - and other political party leaders such as Bulent Ecevit - head of ‘CHP’, Necmettin Erbakan - head of ‘MSP’, and Alparslan Turkesh head of - ‘MHP’. Yes, plotters attempted to do as well but only at 01:00 when. Erdogan was already gone. 00:37 AM – Mr. President is having a call with CNN Türk over Facetime and urges the nation to pour into the streets to resist the 42
July 15 - AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak coup attempt – he plays his last move which is risky but effective way in this case. 00:50 AM – Hulusi Akar (Chief of the General Staff), Abidin Unal (Chief of the Air Forces), Salih Zeki Cholak (Chief of the Land Forces), Yashar Guler (Second Chief of the General Staff), Galip Mendi (Chief of the Gendarmerie) – all were taken hostage by the plotters respectively.
A tank squashing civilian protestors, July 16, 2016, Istanbul. AFP
From this point, mistake chain continued with the bombardment of Ankara Directorate of Security, Grand National Assembly of Turkey, firing at MIT headquarters in Ankara, squashing cars with tanks in Ankara and Istanbul which even escalated the rage among people and so on. With the unprecedented perseverance of citizens, government could suppress the coup attempt and made plotters capitulate.
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The theories behind the scene, some may call ‘conspiracy theories’ Who organized the coup, indeed? 3 explanations come to the mind: (1) this was a scenario written by the incumbent government of Turkey in order to convince people and parliamentarians to what Justice and Development Party (from now, ‘AKP’) wanted to change such as transmission to the presidential system, etc., (2) this was a deliberately organized plot by Fethullah Gulen (a Muslim clerk living in Pennsylvania, founder and head of Gulen Movement called ‘Hizmet hareketi’) and his adherents in order to overthrow the AKP government and president Erdogan, (3) plot organized by a third party (one and the biggest allegation is CIA – Central Intelligence Agency of United States) and operated by Gulenists. The first assertion is utterly risky because there might be information leakage among the plotters which would lead to the disaster of AKP government. So second or third and why?
Soldiers involved in the coup attempt surrender on Bosphorus bridge, Istanbul, July 16, 2016. Gokhan Tan/Getty 44
July 15 - AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak Gulenist jamaat acknowledged Said Nursi’s ideas – a polymath known for his religious opinions and being dissident to the secular regime. The very subtle strategy of the jamaat was opening private schools in several countries, hiring professional teachers in their majors, raising sympathy towards the jamaat among students while educating them, either appointing them to high ranking positions in the government or supporting them in businesses. What will be the consequences of such a strategy – successful businessmen, those who dearly loves the jamaat and got support and funding from the jamaat will start to fund the jamaat and its private schools as soon as the student becomes successful and others who would be appointed to the high rankings in the government. So Gulenists have been positioned and infiltrated to different institutions and agencies of the government in one form or another, such as police, judges, prosecutors and even army. ‘Without its educational infrastructure to mass-produce followers, the Gulen movement would be just another religious community in Turkey — a jamaat rather than the jamaat’, Selim Koru and Huseyin Rasit Yilmaz describes. So the strategy worked perfectly until when a discord occurred between Erdogan and his once ally Gulen. 2011 was a very turbulent year for Turkey. After ‘Ergenekon’ and ‘Sledgehammer’ (originally ‘Balyoz’) a new indictment called ‘Internet memorandum’ (originally ‘Internet Andıcı’) broke out and the new wave of trials started. Lots of former army personnel arrested but most importantly, former Chief of the General Staff, Ilker Bashbug was indicted for organizing a coup and being head of a terrorist organization and got a life sentence. Main prosecutors of indictment were Zekeriya Oz and Mehmet Ali Pekguzel. The first one escaped from the country in August 2015, a couple of hours after arrest warrant was issued for him. The latter was arrested in this year, after the failed coup attempt. Both were accused with having ties with Gulen. Ilker Bashbug and some others were freed in 2014. He later wrote in his book: ‘I knew that the Turkish army was infiltrated by Gulenists 45
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and I warned the government about it to take a measure but nobody cared. So I started to ‘fight’ with jamaat myself. They understood and launched a conspiracy with fake claims’ (Bashbug, 2015). In 2013, Erdogan was now well aware of the events and conspiracies happening in Turkey. So he launched a massive campaign against Gulen to close down all of his private schools. However, the retaliation was bitter; corruption scandal (17-25 December) was last but not the least hit of the jamaat to the AKP government and Erdogan. The AKP-jamaat war finally erupted.
Soldiers secure the Taksim Square as civilians pour into the streets to protest the coup attempt, July 16, 2016, Istanbul. Murat Sezer/Reuters
In order to find answers to the questions given at the beginning of the article, we should focus on further analysis. First of all, because AKP and the jamaat were once allies and because the government condoned all the activities of Gulenists doing, there is a possibility that Erdogan had kind of a list of those who were infiltrated to several institutions of the government. If so, why AKP government did not 46
July 15 - AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak take any action? Possibly, with the purges of 2012-2013 (after ‘Ergenekon’ and ‘Sledgehammer’) jamaat purged those who are in the list of Erdogan (if such a list exists) and deployed new ones or high ranking plotters were Gulen’s joker card which he kept secure for bad days Then the plot was organized long before 2015? God knows. In both cases, Erdogan became unaware of them because he did not have their names in the list (again if such a list exists). We have to consider another point: the graduation years of main actors of the plot from military academy are quite close to each other – 1980s or around 1980, the years when Gulen was rising. Possibly, in that years jamaat had a proximity with them. We analyzed the coup phase by phase and found some failures – some obvious some not. What if the coup was deliberately organized wrong? If so one purpose is highly possible: undermine the AKP government and Turkey’s power with downgrading the image of Turkish Military Forces in the eyes of nation because the Turks bear considerably high sympathy, trust and respect towards its army because that army won the independence war in 1923 and that army is the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. With doing so Turkey could be debilitated and lost its influence on Kurds and in the region, especially in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, perhaps the most important part from the aspect of jamaat, AKP could lost its authority in the country, over Gulenists and this could lead to their dissolution. However, can a pious community organize such an elaborate plan? Can they organize without any help from a third party? CIA might have its own interest in helping Gulenists but why should they help? On the one hand, they should not and did not help because Turkey is a strategic and crucial ally of United States in the Middle East. On the other hand, Turkey is a strategic ally but it is already September and they have not extradited Gulen yet which means US still needs Gulen to use him for further purposes in Turkey (yes, Turkey is struggling to find a sufficient evidence for extradition of Gulen as well which is 47
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another reason). If so, then CIA did help (then Gulen might even did not know the consequence of the plot whether it will be successful or not). God knows.
Citizens protesting the coup attempt, Istanbul, July 16, 2016. Aris Messinis/AFP
Turkey launched its campaign in Syria called ‘Euphrates Shield’ to re-establish that sympathy, trust and respect of nation towards armed forces and AKP. Government continues its purge of Gulenists and is detaining anyone who is suspected to have a tie with the jamaat but it seems a huge part of detainees is not really those who should be detained. CHP protested this action but it does not matter for AKP at all. To sum this heavily complicated topic up, neither jamaat nor AKP became the losers of July 15 while they both did not become the winners either…
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July 15 - AKP-Jamaat ‘War’ at Its Peak References: 1. Calik B. (2016, July 21). Turkey: Over 10,000 linked to failed coup in custody. Retrieved from http://aa.com.tr/en/todays-headlines/turkey-over-10-000-linked-to-failed-coup-in-custody/613175 2. [Al Jazeera Turk]. (2016, August 3). Timeline of the July 15 coup attempt: Turkey’s longest night. Retrieved from https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=6Uu8DwF8Hm8 3. Bashbug I., Nasıl Bir Türkiye, Kaynak Yayınları (Istanbul, 2015) 4. Koru S., Yilmaz H.R. (2016, August 5). Fethullah Gulen’s Race to the Top Is Over. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/05/ fethullah-gulen-race-top-over-turkey-erdogan-secularism-schools/
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Tofig Bayramov
Brexit Imagine an EU without Britain Tofig Bayramov
Bachelor of Business Administration
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orning of June 23, 2016 was different than other ordinary summer days. At this day, British people went for the elections and voted in the referendum. Politicians, including former Prime Minister David Cameron, businesses, even ordinary people were concerned at this day about their future. Probably, this referendum could have been the most important election for Britons in their life. Not only Great Britain, but also world had closely scrutinized what was the tune of the British atmosphere at that day, because they knew that the result would have significant impact on worldwide political, economic matters. The result was shocking for most of the world. 52 per cent of the voters favored exit. It meant that Britain would act with accordance Lisbon treaty, and their exit period will begin. In 2 years, Britain will no longer have any economic, political ties with EU. Generally, lots of Britons and lots of countries found this result shocking and they understood that this result would have profound effect and would shape the current economic and political phenomena. One of the first example of this analysis was resignation of Prime Minister of Great Britain. When Conservatives got victory in the elections in 50
Brexit - Imagine an EU without Britain 2015, David Cameron campaigned this referendum would take place and ultimate result led his resignation, because Cameron was keen on Britain to remain in EU. Moreover, he strived for several concessions to get by EU and he was successful. It can be estimated that Cameron wanted to defeat British Euroscepticism and to continue and implementing his policies firmly after getting a clear victory from referendum and despite his efforts it did not happen. Cameron accepted his defeat and resigned, and after that incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May who was one of the people endorsed Brexit campaign strongly was elected. Most parts of the world did not intend this result, because this result brings uncertainty to the worldwide economic, political, even social framework. There will be significant cost of this referendum to the world, especially for Britain.
Britain and the EU: By the Numbers. Council on Foreign Relations
It is necessary to approach this issue from several perspectives. From the economical perspective, Britain will encounter uncertainty in business which can cause economic stagnation for some period. Great 51
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Britain will lose its access to the entire EU market which now will consist of 27 countries, including Germany, France, Italy. Moreover, Britain will lose its tax-free, tariff-free privileges. Now Britons will have to pay more for their favorite German cars including tax. This means that Britain will have to negotiate new contracts and terms of it with every country of it separately. Negotiations can take several years and it has time-cost and even profit cost. For example, Canada signed a trade deal with EU, it took several years of negotiation process and still this deal has not ratified yet. So, Britain will suffer to sell its goods and deliver its services at least for a short period of time. Moreover, EU have plans to sign a huge trade contract with US, and if ever this huge trade deal happens, Britain will not be able to utilize from its advantages. It is also necessary to note that 47.2 % of the total exports of UK were delivered to EU. It is obvious that after Brexit, Britain won’t be able to sell its goods in this massive size to EU.
Boris Johnson and David Cameron. The former favored the Brexit but the latter did not. Will Oliver/AFP/Getty 52
Brexit - Imagine an EU without Britain So, it is recommendable to put ourselves in the shoes of the investors for a while. Investors do not like uncertainty and this means that there can be some diminish in the total sum of the foreign investment in UK. However, leavers campaigned that the common trade area started in 1922, not in 1973 when Britain joined to the EU (The
Boats decorated with flags and banners campaigning to leave the EU sail by the British Houses of Parliament in London, June 15, 2016. Niklas Hallen/Getty
Economist, 2016). So, trade will continue. However, it should not be forgotten that EU would be less willing to co-operate with Britain in the previous level. They would like to weaken the economic ties with Britain, because it is necessary for the future of EU. If they will not, other countries will likely to hold referendums and to get rid of EU regulations, commission fees, because they will see that Britain have strong economic ties, despite Brexit. So, it seems that EU won’t likely to act in this way. However, it is vital to mention that London today is 53
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one of the main financial centers in the world. It is possible to think that London will survive from this uncertainty with less damage. Today’s figures prove that. Retail sales grew by 5.9% compared with July 2015, the Office for National Statistics said.( BBC, 2016) Also, consumer spending increased in July. Situation is quite better than what was expected, but Britain have not left EU yet and in future it will apparent that how much Britain and the entire world will be affected by this process. Until today, pound fell significantly and is close to its lowest value in the last 30 years. Also, Central Bank of England cut interest rates from 0,5% to 0,25% in order to relive business. Additionally, it is estimated that 3 million jobs were connected through ties with EU. After Brexit, it is highly possible that there will be an increase in unemployment rate. Taking into consideration all of these economic facts, we can conclude that Britain has done well than expected until now but future is still highly uncertain.
Placards are attached to the railings of the Houses of Parliament during a demonstration on September 12 to express solidarity with migrants and to demand the government welcome refugees into Britain. Stefan Wermuth/Reuters 54
Brexit - Imagine an EU without Britain Certainly, not only the economy of the world will not be shaped but also it will have drastic impacts on worldwide politics. It is quite logical to tell that nationalist forces defeated unionists in Britain. Mainly, Brexit campaigners promoted migration, security issues. Especially, after the expansion of EU, the number of immigrants increased in Britain. According to the Office for National Statistics, there are 942,000 eastern Europeans, Romanians and Bulgarians working in the UK, along with 791,000 western Europeans – and 2.93m workers from outside the EU. (The Week, 2016) This huge number and current immigration crisis of Middle East increased the concern of Britons. Most of the European countries hesitantly accept refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and other war countries from Middle East. Britain would like to act in this issue independently and not to comply with EU immigration policy, because Britain did not want to accept the number of immigrants and refugees which EU offered. Additionally, Britons are also concerned with Eastern European immigrants, because they think that Eastern European workers are ‘stealing’ their job places and it causes to the increase of the unemployment rate among native Britons. So, evidently, expansion of EU and current refugee crisis from Middle East escalated British nationalism and became one of the flagship arguments of Leaver Campaigners. It is totally narcissistic and inhumane point of view and stance by Britons, because our entire world is integrated in the globalization process and millions of people are travelling from one point of the world to another and Britons also travel to other EU countries and other countries in the world. This causes the integration of different cultures and creates the concept of multiculturalism. Multiculturalism and creation of organizations such as UN, NATO, NAFTA and others help to create co-operation of the lots of countries and the decrease in the number of conflicts or hostilities. So, migration process is unavoidable. Britain’s stance definitely can be an example and it can trigger other countries to take such kind 55
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of actions towards immigrants. This is completely against the current worldwide phenomena and can cause further hostilities, terrorist acts and even wars. Also, Britain’s internal security can be damaged due to Brexit. Even now it is clear to observe that nationalist forces of Scotland and Northern Ireland can push for new referendums. In 2014, there had been a massive referendum for the independence in Scotland. Scotland lost this chance by a very little margin. Moreover, most of the Scotland voted for the remain in EU. After Brexit, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon had expressed about the possibility of the second referendum and their flagship argument probably will be that they would like to stay in EU, thus they want to be independent and join EU. This means that Scotland can leave UK in the future and this may definitely lead to the new tensions and new conflict in this region.
Leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party, Nigel Farage supporting the Brexit. Neil Hall/Reuters
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Brexit - Imagine an EU without Britain Another problem is related to Northern Ireland region. The southern neighbor of Great Britain - Ireland Republic is also a member of EU. Ireland was a unit state and it was separated by Britain in the past. In the last years, passport controls were eliminated in this region and people from both two geographical areas visited them frequently and freely. After Brexit UK again can tight the borders and this can cause some tension. We should not forget that, in 1990s there were bloody clashes in this region and nobody will want this type of violence escalating and dominating in this region. Thus, there is a possibility of arising two conflicts even in Britain itself. This is not the only problem. There is also a global problem. Britain had co-operated with big powers in order to secure its country from terrorism and other territorial threats. Leavers had campaigned that the open borders of 28 countries pose a threat to the country. Terrorists in other European countries can enter UK without passport control easily. But there is another perspective in this issue. Closing borders mean that UK’s co-operation with other countries also weaken and it will be more difficult to prevent terrorism as a unit sole than being a united power. World has moved towards globalization and creation of the international organizations focused on the prevention of the conflicts and the co-operation of the countries together. Britain’s exit decision is a reverse trend of this concept. Hopefully, other countries will not act in this way, because it will definitely can cause a third World War at the end, because even today there are lots of conflict hotspots and the countries even together cannot manage to prevent all of these conflicts. Clash of interests of big countries is a global threat for the entire world. Certainly, separation of the countries can bring more tumultuous and worse results for the entire world. Anyway Brexit happened. It should not be forgotten that free trade is the best economic policy in today’s circumstances. Hopefully, free trade policies and the circulation of the services and goods, overall economic and political phe57
Tofig Bayramov
nomena will not be significantly affected by Brexit. References: 1. (June 2016). Tug of War. The Economist, The Brexit briefs. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/ EconomistBrexitBriefs16.pdf?cid1=cust/ddnew/n/n/n/20160621n/ owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/NA/email&etear=dailydispatch 2. BBC Business (18 August 2016). Warm weather lifts retail sales in July. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37116279 3. The Week Brexit (27 June 2016). EU Referendum: What Are the Pros and Cons of Brexit? Retrieved from http://www.theweek. co.uk/brexit-0
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The Four Day War
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