Where does LSU women’s hoops stand in the ESPN Bracketology?

BY TYLER HARDEN @ttjharden8

The postseason is getting closer by the day for the LSU women’s basketball team.

With their current 23-0 record, the Tigers look to be a top seed in both the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. But as there have been all season, there are teams that stand in their way of being at the top, and teams that have threatened to take them down. When it matters most in March, the question is: who will those teams be?

Where does LSU stand as of right now?

According to ESPN’s Women’s Basketball Bracketology, the Tigers were projected as a No. 2 seed as of Tuesday morning. They’re projected to host the first two rounds at the PMAC once again, and if the tournament started today, the Tigers would play Gardner-Webb of the Big South Conference.

If the Tigers were to win that game, they would take on the winner of a No. 7 vs. No. 10seed matchup. As of Tuesday morning, those two teams are projected to be Louisville as the No. 7 seed, and Washington State as the No. 10 seed. The second round matchup would also be played at the PMAC.

Who is above LSU in the bracketology?

The top overall seed in the bracketology is the South Carolina Gamecocks, who LSU plays on Sunday afternoon. They’re also the only other remaining undefeated team in the country along with LSU. They’re the defending national champions, and they returned the projected first WNBA Draft pick in center, Aliyah Boston. Regardless of if LSU dethrones the Gamecocks on Sunday, it makes sense that they’re projected at the top once again.

The other No. 1 seeds in the

RANKING, from page 9

Maryland, No. 12 Michigan, No. 13 Ohio State and No. 14 North Carolina, with three of those wins coming within the last month. It’s safe to say that Indiana’s lone loss, a Quad ! loss on the road against Michigan State nearly six weeks ago, gets trumped by the four top-15 wins that follow it.

Other than that, defeating Illinois (No. 34 in NET) and Purdue (No. 40 in NET) on the road gives the Hoosiers a total of seven Quad I wins opposed to LSU’s four, which all came against teams not currently ranked in the AP Top 25. Strength of schedule has become a tired argument to Tiger fans, being that LSU can’t control its conference not being as deep as the Big 10, but when you’re getting compared to top teams like that, one week not meeting your usual standards can usually be the difference.

Heading into last week, Indiana fell two votes short of sur- passing LSU and had steadily been inching closer to it in that regard, meaning there was already a great chance of it jumping the Tigers if it simply performed better than them. Each team went in with similar scenarios, one opponent in the NET Top 50 (LSU vs. Georgia, Indiana vs. Purdue) and one outside the NET Top 100 (LSU vs. Texas A&M, Indiana vs. Minnesota), with the Hoosiers having a slightly more difficult week with both matchups occurring on the road.

That meant that if the Tigers faltered even a little bit, Indiana was bound to jump them.

While LSU struggled in both outings, narrowly avoiding an overtime loss to Georgia and struggling to put the Aggies away on the road, the Hoosiers played exceptionally well in each of its contests, defeating both opponents by 23 points. With the teams going into each week neck-and-neck in the rankings, it’s clear why Indiana jumped LSU.

Fans would argue that one bad week in a long season featuring nearly 30 games doesn’t define a team, which is true. Indiana’s bad week came earlier in the season and recency does play a role in the committee’s decision. But that doesn’t make the decision any less justified considering the comparison in track records.

It doesn’t mean either team is better than the other. That won’t be determined until each team consistently gets put to the test in March, with a possible crossing of paths later on in March Madness.

Either way, there’s only one scenario where this remains a point of contention moving forward. Indiana faces No. 5 Iowa on Thursday and LSU faces No. 1 South Carolina on Sunday, with each game occurring before next week’s rankings are released. If each team wins in similar fashion, a near-impossible choice awaits the committee, a choice that will likely cause chaos no matter what.

Johnny Jones, topping the previous record of 14, set in the 1965-66 season and matched the following year.

The bottom has fallen out for an LSU team that has almost no hope of playing meaningful postseason basketball because of this streak. Although the Tigers have made improvements in their last two games, particularly on the offensive end, having notched two of their three highest scoring outputs of the conference schedule in that span, it hasn’t yet resulted in a win.

The goal for the rest of the season is really just to see if the team can string together some competent performances and establish some momentum heading into next year, when LSU at least figures to have more continuity than it did this season.

But there’s also a secondary goal for the Tigers: avoiding infamy.

If LSU doesn’t win one of its next five games, it will find itself sharing a dubious distinction, having lost the most consecutive games in Tiger history.

A 16th straight loss would have them in sole possession of that embarrassing record.

The good news for the Tigers is that the schedule ahead of them is undoubtedly easier than the stretch they’ve left behind. Every SEC opponent LSU’s faced through 10 games is either projected to be in the NCAA Tournament or included as one of the first four out, according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. Only three of LSU’s remaining opponents hold that distinction.

In their all-important next six games, the Tigers will face only one team listed by Lunardi: Texas A&M, projected to be one of the first four teams outside of the tournament bubble.

Still, according to ESPN’s win probability projections, LSU’s favored to win only two of its next

BRACKET, from page 9 bracketology are UConn, Indiana and Stanford. Out of these three teams, Indiana is the only one that ranks ahead of LSU in the AP Top 25; with LSU ranked third and Indiana in second. UConn is right behind LSU at No. 4 in the AP rankings, and Stanford is ranked sixth after losing to Washington this past Sunday. six games. The Tigers are calculated to have an 89.8% chance of beating South Carolina on Feb. 18, which makes sense, considering the Gamecocks are the only team below LSU in the SEC standings at 1-10. LSU’s also favored against Vanderbilt on Feb. 22, with a 63.7% chance of winning.

Who are the other projectedNo. 2 seeds with LSU?

Maryland, Utah and Iowa are the other projected No. 2 seeds in the class. Of these three teams, Iowa is the highest ranked in the AP Top 25, sitting at No. 6.

The Hawkeyes are led by junior guard, Caitlin Clark, who is ranked second in the country for points per game, second in the country for assists per game and tied for fourth in the country for three-pointers made per game. Iowa faces off with Indiana on Thursday night at 5:30 p.m.

Maryland has the projected second-overall WNBA draft pick in small forward, Diamond Miller. The Terrapins still have to play Iowa and No. 13-ranked Ohio State.

Who else in the SEC is projected to make the NCAA Tournament?

LSU and South Carolina are the two highest-seeded SEC teams in the bracketology, but they are two of the projected eight SEC teams to make the tournament. The next highestseeded SEC team after LSU is Tennessee, which is projected as a No. 7 seed.

Ole Miss and Alabama are both projected as No. 8 seeds, and Arkansas is projected as a No. 9 seed. Georgia is projected as a No. 11-seed, and Mississippi State is projected to play in a play-in game for a No. 12-seed.

Of the SEC teams projected to make the tournament, including South Carolina, LSU has Ole Miss and Mississippi State still to play, and both matchups are at home.

LSU would obviously like to win before then and avoid that drama, but a victory may be hard to find. Mississippi State’s a tough team that has wins over Missouri and ranked TCU, while Texas A&M boasts a 9-2 conference record, albeit without having played Tennessee or Alabama, the conference’s two best teams.

Georgia seems like a team LSU will have a better chance of beating, as the Bulldogs have losses in six of their last seven games, most of which were uncompetitive. However, Georgia scored more than 70 points in five games during that span, something LSU’s done only twice in all of SEC play.

If the Tigers are winless in their next three games, those South Carolina and Vanderbilt matchups will certainly be dramatic, but LSU would have reasonable expectations of winning, as both teams have struggled.

Statistically speaking, LSU will almost definitely not set the program record for losses in a row.

Using ESPN’s win probability projections, the Tigers have about a 1.5% chance of losing all of their next five games, and about a 1% chance of hitting that additional 16th consecutive loss.

However, it seemed improbable that LSU would find itself in this situation to begin with. Until LSU breaks the streak, stops the bleeding and reminds people what a win feels like, the disappointment that this season has been will have people fearing the worst.