February 2021 - The Epidemiology Monitor by The Epidemiology Monitor

Experts Speak Out On The Current Status of the Pandemic In The US Everyone Wants To Know--Where Do We Go From Here? How Does This End? The steady decline of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths attributable to COVID-19 has created a proliferation of interviews and articles seeking to explain and to predict the trajectory of the pandemic from this point forward.

certain level of herd immunity because of the estimated number of persons in the US who have already been infected. For example, a study out of Columbia University led by Jeffrey Shaman estimates that the number of active cases of COVID-19 is ten times higher than the number of confirmed cases on any given day. According to this computer model, an estimated one third of the US population has already been infected.

Undercount In the US, some have asserted the 2 decline in the pandemic is due to vaccination or having achieved a

-7Bill Foege's Perspective On COVID -9COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Estimates

- Experts con't on page 2

WHO Epidemiologist And Head Of Health Emergencies Program Issues A Moral Wake-Up Call In His Acceptance Speech At Romero Award Ceremony 1. “Almost all the vaccines that have been delivered around the world are in 10 countries. It cannot be sustained. It is just not fair”

2. "We are writing cheques that we cannot cash as a civilisation and they’re going to bounce.” - WHO cont'd on page 4 February 2021

In This Issue

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Volume Forty Two •

Number Two

-10Near Term Epi Calendar -13Notes on People -15Marketplace

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Current Status

reductions in mask use can easily lead to increasing cases and deaths in many states in April…

One of the most informative sources continues to be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation which has recently issued policy briefings about its predictions for each region of the world and some individual countries. In the latest briefing for the US dated late February, IHME asserts that the main driver for the decline in the US is seasonality aided by expanding levels of vaccination. Reported mask use remains high at 77%. In contrast to the Columbia model, the IHME estimates that only 18% of people in the US have been infected as of mid-February.

...Managing the epidemic in the next four months depends critically on scaling up vaccination, trying to increase the fraction of adults willing to be vaccinated above three quarters, and strongly encouraging continued mask use and avoiding situations where transmission is likely, such as indoor dining, going to bars, or indoor gatherings with individuals outside the household. Despite the favorable trends in the epidemic we do not expect to reach herd immunity prior to next winter.”

Michigan Example

Normalcy

In Michigan where the declines have been very marked, one report identified cold weather and decreased mobility as factors explaining the drop. Other reasons included people doublemasking or wearing more effective masks. In Michigan, vaccination levels were not considered high enough yet to explain the declining rates. An estimated 15% of Michigan residents have had coronavirus.

The steep declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are also fueling discussion about how the pandemic will end and when we can return to normal life. A recent feature article in the Atlantic queried a variety of experts to get their opinions about what life will be like over the next four seasons. Bottom line—the article summarizes its prediction by stating “an uncertain spring, an amazing summer, a cautious fall and winter, and then finally, relief.”

Projections Multi-month discounts available upon request.

In seeking to predict the trajectory of the pandemic over the short term between now and next summer, IHME notes that the B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant is expected to increase from 20% of infections today to 80% by late April. Most important in projecting cases over the near term is actually the behavior of Americans. According to IHME, “If most individuals remain careful, maintaining mask-wearing through April or longer we expect…a cumulative death toll of 589,000. More rapid increases in mobility or

This assessment has a lot to do with the uncertainty about the impact the virus variants will have this spring and the expectation that vaccinations and warmer weather will allow many aspects of life to return to normal this summer, but not the return of indoor concerts, dining in at crowded restaurants, full attendance at large sporting events, and international travel. Taking the longer view requires making assumptions about the impact of the variants and the ability to adjust - Experts con't on page 3

-Experts cont'd from page 2 vaccines to keep them effective. In the longer term, the article guesses that the coronavirus will be less lethal and more like the flu during the colder months but without wide uncontrolled spread. White House Take On Future Leaders of the White House pandemic effort recently took part in a conversation sponsored by the American Public Health Association and the National Academy of Medicine entitled “A New Year of COVID: The State of the Pandemic and U.S. Strategy in 2021”. Speakers included CDC’s new Director Rochelle Walensky, Marcella NunezSmith, Chair, COVID-19 Equity Task Force, and Andy Slavitt, White House Senior Advisor on COVID-19 Response. Georges Benjamin, APHA president and moderator asked how is the administration thinking about how this ends? He noted there's several possible futures from endemic disease to seasonal disease to this being a false reduction and getting another fourth surge. No Crystalballing Nunes-Smith resisted the idea of using a crystal ball to project how and when we get to our new normal. She answered as follows “What we know now is that we have the benefits of great scientific discovery and breakthrough in the authorized vaccines and quite frankly in the therapeutics that are underutilized... ...We have tools in the toolbox. We know basic health things that work. Masking, still socially distancing, all of that. So I think it is early to say exactly where we will end up and will we end up with an endemic sort of COVID-19. What we do know is that our immediate issue is to try to reduce pressure on the

virus to mutate in ways that are clinically significant. And the best way we can do this is to be efficient and equitable in our vaccination work.” As leader of the White House response, Slavitt suggested”…we have to have much better real-time ability to see what's happening, where it's happening and to react to it. Second is, we have to do scenario planning …We can all wish for this to be the last wave. But we wouldn't be doing our jobs if we weren't actively focused on containment measures for the variants, if we weren't actively focused on how might therapeutics help to minimize the effect of the variants. How might we make sure that if we do have another wave it feels different? ...So all of this to say the question you're asking is a good one. And as Dr. Nunez-Smith said, we won't predict the future internally, we do feel like we have to prepare for each of those scenarios and also not try to answer the unknowable questions.” ■

"We have tools in the toolbox."

“...and also not try to answer the unknowable questions.”

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-WHO cont'd from page 1

3. “The most vulnerable populations in the world have now become even more vulnerable. Those we left behind before are now even further behind.”

4. “…We as individuals and as communities need to recognise that pure individualism gets us nowhere.”

“We are creating the conditions in which epidemics flourish."

These are just a few of the stirring words delivered by Mike Ryan, WHO’s Executive Director of the Health Emergencies Program, at a recent online ceremony where he accepted the Romero award from Trocaire, an agency of the Irish Catholic Church and a member of the Caritas Internationalis Federation. Ryan has had a long career as a field epidemiologist with the WHO and has been at the forefront of combatting the COVID-19 pandemic as well as multiple other outbreaks around the world. The annual award, given to honor outstanding contributions to global justice, was this year given to corecipients in recognition of the efforts at global level and local level to protect people from the virus.

“...that’s becoming a malignancy, not growth..."

Dr. Ryan was awarded the Romero Award for his global leadership and efforts to highlight the risks facing vulnerable people in the developing world, while LVCT Health was named as co-recipient for their efforts to protect vulnerable young women in Kenya throughout the pandemic. In publicizing Ryan’s speech, Trocaire highlighted five key takeaways that are important statements about the worldwide COVID-19 situation and the world’s response to it.

This report provides excerpts on the five takeaways. 1. COVID-19 is a wake up call on how we live our lives. “We are pushing nature to its limit. We are pushing population to its limit. We’re pushing communities to their limits. We’re stressing the environment. We are creating the conditions in which epidemics flourish. We’re forcing and pushing people to migrate away from their homes because of climate stress.... Malignancy ...We’re doing so much and we’re doing it in the name of globalisation and some sense of chasing that wonderful thing that people call economic growth. In my view, that’s becoming a malignancy, not growth, because what it’s doing is driving unsustainable practices in terms of how we manage communities, how we manage development, how we manage prosperity. We are writing cheques that we cannot cash as a civilisation and they’re going to bounce. My fear is that our children are going to pay that price. That someday when we’re not here, our children will wake up in a world - WHO con't on page 5

-WHO cont'd from page 4 where there is a pandemic that has a much higher case fatality rate, and that could bring our civilisation to its very knees... Sustainability ...We need a world that is more sustainable, where profit is not put before communities. Where the slavery to economic growth is taken out of the equation. We need sustainable growth in our communities. We need sustainable livelihoods for our people. And we’re taking huge risks – massive risks – with our future if we don’t manage the planet in which we live. And we’re being extremely irresponsible right now.” 2. Covid-19 has highlighted the inequalities that exist in the world “The most vulnerable populations in the world have now become even more vulnerable. Those we left behind before are now even further behind. Covid has laid bare and exploited fundamental inequities in access to public healthcare and the reality that healthcare can be used to empower or curtail the human, civil and political rights... ...Healthcare can be a force of good but it can also be a weapon of oppression if you don’t have access to it or if access to that healthcare is dependent on the color of your skin or your ethnicity or your political affiliations. Access to healthcare during Covid-19 has not been fair. It has been influenced by gender, by age, by social class, by legal status, by ethnicity and by so many other factors.”

3. We need to invest in healthcare rather than spending trillions on arms “We are prepared to invest trillions of dollars every year of people’s money in the defence against an army that might never come across a border. And we’ve invested almost nothing in the microbes that have brought our civilisation to its knees over the last year. And I think we should think about that. Where are we putting our money in defence – defending ourselves against foreign armies or defending ourselves against viruses?”

“...we’re being extremely irresponsible right now.”

4. The only way to defeat this is by working together “…We as individuals and as communities need to recognise that pure individualism gets us nowhere. We have to act collectively in the face of an epidemic. This is a hard thing to do. We live in an individualistic society. That sense of community is what saves you in an epidemic.” 5. We must share vaccines to protect the most vulnerable people everywhere “The moral hazard for Ireland and Europe and everyone else across the world is once we cover those individuals who are vulnerable in our society, can we then at least begin to share with those in the world who do not have access to the vaccine. At least begin to share a small slice of the cake. It’s very hard for people who are way down that chain. People in South Sudan today, down the end of the line looking to the top of the line with developed countries fighting over - WHO con't on page 6

“That sense of community is what saves you in an epidemic.”

-WHO cont'd from page 5 who’s first and who’s second and who’s third and they know they’re never even going to get into the line...

“The north doesn’t need to share all its vaccine..."

...The north doesn’t need to share all its vaccine, it needs to share some of its vaccine to ensure the most vulnerable and most at risk in the developing world have access... ...Almost all the vaccines that have been delivered around the world are in

10 countries. It cannot be sustained. It is just not fair. If we stand by and allow frontline health workers and vulnerable people in developing countries to not be vaccinated while the rich north gets on with vaccinating perfectly healthy young people, I hope the history books write that down... ...We have a choice to make.” To listen to segments of Ryan’s speech, visit: http://bit.ly/3dN6tf6 ■

Who is Trócaire? What is the Romero Award? According to its website, Trócaire is the Irish language word for “compassion”. For almost 50 years Trócaire has put the compassion of Irish people into action as an agency of the Irish Catholic Church.

“We have a choice to make.”

It works in partnership with communities in over 20 countries to relieve poverty and tackle injustice. The Romero Award each year honors a Trócaire partner who has displayed courage and commitment to advancing the cause of human rights in the communities where Trócaire works.

Trócaire partners with over 400 local organizations around the world who work tirelessly, often at great personal risk, to support communities facing threats. Launched in 2018, the Romero Award is presented to highlight the bravery of Trócaire partners. The award is named in honor of Saint Oscar Romero, who was a Trócaire partner prior to his assassination in March 1980. Trócaire supported Saint Romero’s work with the poor and marginalized in El Salvador. Today, his spirit lives on in the work of Trócaire partners around the world. ■

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Former CDC Director Bill Foege Shares Perspective On COVID-19 “Looking Back From 2022” Bill Foege, former CDC Director and Emeritus Professor of International Health at Emory, spoke at a Department of Medicine Grand Rounds in mid-January with a presentation entitled “COVID-19— Looking Back from 2022”. A main theme of his talk was to share lessons learned from smallpox eradication and other outbreak experiences and how they were applied or not applied in the coronavirus pandemic in the US. Importance of Management Foege kicked off this part of his talk by noting that smallpox did not disappear on its own and reminding us that we live in a cause and effect world. He shared a quote he remembered from long ago that “you should not confuse destiny with bad management.” According to Foege, COVID-19 did not get this bad by chance; it is because all of the lessons from the past were not heeded.

each trying to do their own thing. Looking back from the perspective of 2022, Foege said he was confident that the development of a national plan by the Biden administration in January 2021 will be seen as a critical determinant of our coming success over the next several months in controlling the pandemic.

“...you should not confuse destiny with bad management.”

A third lesson that was violated is about the importance of creating coalitions. Instead, the Trump administration created competition between the 50 states for resources and materials. The fourth lesson Foege shared is that the best decisions are based on the best science and the best results are based on the best management. The former was the case in the development of the new vaccines but not the case in the deployment of the vaccination program. Culture

First Lesson First among those lessons is to know the truth about what is happening. This is accomplished through surveillance which normally has been led by the CDC. Instead, during this pandemic, this surveillance function was done by journalists and Johns Hopkins University, said Foege. He highlighted that President Trump was the single greatest source of misinformation about the virus.

Another important lesson highlighted was the importance of respecting the culture. He noted that the best approach to reaching African Americans and other vulnerable populations is by “not being the government that tells them what to do.” Instead he argued for using trusted sources in minority populations such as black church leaders, and black and Latino doctors to deliver good information.

“...the best decisions are based on the best science..."

Need a Plan - WHO con't on page 8 A second lesson is the importance of having a national plan. This did not occur in the US and instead we had 50 states

-Foege cont'd from page 7 WHO Decision

“...the public health community remained too quiet while these violations were taking place..."

Foege showed his dismay at the decision of the US to leave the World Health Organization. He said every decision should be “based on a hope for global equity”, and given this principle, he could not understand how anyone would leave WHO. He urged the US to use the CDC to realign and repair the relationship with WHO because CDC has a long history of working with the organization and many CDC personnel have actually worked at WHO. Not Blameless

“...public health needs politicians to provide resources."

While Foege noted that the Trump administration violated every lesson learned from working on past outbreaks, he said the public health as a field was not blameless. He asserted that the public health community remained too quiet while these violations were taking place and should have pushed back more. He admitted he should have spoken out more effectively in early 2020. Asked during the question period what he would have done had he been CDC

Director during the Trump administration, Foege said he does not know because he never faced what the CDC Director faced in 2020. He did allow that he probably would not have lasted long in his position.. Politics and Public Health In closing, Foege shared his belief that the challenge going forward is for public health and politicians to work together as a coalition to create the mechanisms so that public health will be more resilient in the future. He proposed inviting the two new senators from Georgia to a meeting at Emory as a first step to help strengthen the connection that needs to be there between public health and politicians. Contrary to those who would argue that public health and politicians should not be mixed, Foege said he comes to the opposite conclusion because public health needs politicians to provide resources. That is, not corrupt politicians but rather those with a moral compass. To listen to the grand rounds session in its entirety, visit: https://bit.ly/3aW4fsi ■

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High COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Estimates From Clinical Trials Holding Up Under Field Conditions Initial estimates of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials of the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines were surprisingly high at 94-95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19. Now reports from studies of vaccine efficacy under real world conditions have proven almost equally high. Mayo Study Pawlowski and colleagues at the Mayo clinic carried out a retrospective analysis of 31, 069 health care personnel and residents of long term care facilities who were vaccinated between December and February with at least one dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Their experience was compared to that of unvaccinated matched controls. As reported on the preprint server medRxiv, administration of two doses among persons who were at risk for at least 36 days after the first dose was 88.7% effective in preventing infection. Also, vaccinated persons who subsequently did get ill had significantly lower 14 day hospital admission rates than controls (3.7% vs 9.2%). Because the participants in this observational study were health care workers and residents of long term care facilities, and because participants knew they were vaccinated, their risk of exposure was likely higher than that of participants in the original clinical trials and therefore the estimates in this study are likely to be an underestimate of the true efficacy, according to Pawlowski and co-authors.

The authors conclude that the estimates of vaccine efficacy in this real world population are “on par” with those observed in the clinical trial populations. What is new in this report is that the vaccines were effective among persons who could be expected to be at highest risk of acquiring COVID-19 and the vaccines were effective not only in reducing symptomatic illness but also in reducing infection as measured by a single PCR test.

"...vaccines were effective among persons who could be expected to be at highest risk of acquiring COVID19..."

Israeli Study In another post-trial observational study in Israel, the times of Israel reported that only 608 persons out of a total of 602,000 fully vaccinated persons have been infected and none have died. Only 21 of these have been hospitalized and only 7 with severe symptoms. According to the investigator, Ekka Zohar “The data proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that this is the most effective way to defeat the pandemic.” Using an equivalent sample of unvaccinated controls, Zohar said vaccine efficacy is very close to that reported from the clinical trials.

“The data proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that this is the most effective way to defeat the pandemic.”

■

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Near Term Epidemiology Event Calendar Every December The Epidemiology Monitor dedicates that issue to a calendar of events for the upcoming year. However that often means we don't have full information for events later in the upcoming year. Thus an online copy exists on our website that is updated regularly. To view the full year please go to: http://www.epimonitor.net/Events The events that we are aware of for the next two months follow below.

March 2021 March 2 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Advanced Multiple Imputation Methods to Deal with Missing Data / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL March 2-4 http://bit.ly/35ktoHC Short Course / Epidemiology for Risk Analysis / University of MD & Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition / VIRTUAL March 2-5 http://bit.ly/2P1uouz Conference / Epi Lifestyles 2021 Scientific Sessions / American Heart Association / Chicago, IL & VIRTUAL March 8-10 http://bit.ly/36fpmAn Conference / Teaching Prevention 2021: Promoting Adaptability, Resilience and Sustainability / APTR / Assn for Prevention Teaching & Research / VIRTUAL March 8-12 http://bit.ly/2YqNE82 Short Course / Environmental Health Risk (formerly Analyzing Risk) / Harvard University / VIRTUAL March 17-19 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Mendelian Randomization (A) / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL March 18-19 http://bit.ly/353kNZY Conference / 93rd Annual Meeting - American Epidemiological Society / AES / VIRTUAL March 19-20 http://bit.ly/2KxNfOj Conference / 7th International Conference on Neurology & Epidemiology (ICNE2021) / World Federation of Neurology / VIRTUAL March 22-25 http://bit.ly/3nvV5X4 Short Course / Pharmacoepidemiology In The Era Of Covid-19 / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine / VIRTUAL March 23-25 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Epigenetic Epidemiology / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL March 24-26 http://bit.ly/3oTg72f Conference / Annual Meeting - Society for Veterinary Epidemiology / SEVPM / VIRTUAL March 26 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Advanced Epigenetic Epidemiology / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL March 29-31 http://bit.ly/34XZw3L Conference / 44th Annual Conference - American Society of Preventive Oncology / ASPO / VIRTUAL

March 2021 continued March 29-31 http://bit.ly/3ajVnwD Short Course / Mendelian Randomization / Erasmus MC / VIRTUAL March 29-31 https://bit.ly/2C4g1PE Short Course / Quality of Life Measurement / Erasmus MC / VIRTUAL March 31 - April 1 http://bit.ly/2P0QY6w Conference / Public Health Research and Science Conference 2020 / Public Health England / Manchester, England

Help complete the epi calendar for 2021 The events listed below in blue have traditionally run in March each year. As of the date of publication, we cannot locate updated information for these specific events for 2021. We will be updating our calendar monthly throughout 2021. If you have any information on these events please contact us at events@epimonitor.net Please check our website and newsletter issue often for new information.

Winter School / CGEpi Winter School / LMU Munich / http://bit.ly/3oOABsS Short Course / Using R for Statistics in Medical Research / Erasmus MC / http://bit.ly/2P2HN5O Conference / (InFORM) 2020 Conference / American Public Health Laboratories / http://bit.ly/37mqHZz Short Course / Genetic Epidemiology / University of Bristol / http://bit.ly/2s6QPpm Short Course / Epigenetic Epidemiology / University of Bristol / http://bit.ly/2sZXhyT Short Course / Advanced Epigenetic Epidemiology / University of Bristol / http://bit.ly/2E0uZ9K Short Course / Multiple Imputation for Missing Data / University of Bristol / http://bit.ly/38mpccj Meeting / 2020 Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity (ELC) Annual Meeting / CDC / http://bit.ly/34ee010 Short Course / Clinical Trials: Conduct and Analysis 2020 / Kings College London / http://bit.ly/38rqnaL Short Course / Perinatal Epidemiology & Maternal Health / University College London / http://bit.ly/2s5C6Le Conference / 2021 Annual Conference on Vaccinology Research / National Foundation for Infectious Diseases / http://bit.ly/2EeQbIY Conference / Public Health Research and Science Conference 2021 / Public Health England / http://bit.ly/2P0QY6w

April 2021 April 6 - May 25 http://bit.ly/2DZ37CP Conference / Health Effects International 2021 Conference / HEI / VIRTUAL April 7-16 https://bit.ly/3p3hMCw Conference / SHEA (Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America) Spring 2021 / SHEA / VIRTUAL April 10-15 http://bit.ly/3gQCH8N Conference / 2020 Annual Meeting American Association for Cancer Research (Note - this is part 1 of this conference and part 2 runs in May) / AACR / VIRTUAL

April 2021 continued April 19-20 https://bit.ly/2VRFqoZ Conference / ISPE 2021 Mid-Year Meeting / International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology / VIRTUAL April 19-23 http://bit.ly/2sePrRj Short Course / Surveillance for Public Health / Emory University SPH / VIRTUAL April 21-23 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Mendelian Randomization (B) / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL April 22-23 http://bit.ly/3amAReU Conference / The Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease / Washington University St. Louis / VIRTUAL April 24-27 http://bit.ly/2DZtMPU Conference / 55th Annual Meeting of the European Diabetes Epidemiology Group (EDEG) / EDEG / Hersonissos, Crete, Greece April 26-27 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Essentials of Infectious Disease Modelling and Economic Evaluation / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL April 28-30 http://bit.ly/2K4p3Dl Short Course / Questionnaire Design, Application and Data Interpretation / University of Bristol / VIRTUAL

Help complete the epi calendar for 2021 The events listed below in blue have traditionally run in April each year. As of the date of publication, we cannot locate updated information for these specific events for 2021. We will be updating our calendar monthly throughout 2021. If you have any information on these events please contact us at events@epimonitor.net Please check our website and newsletter issue often for new information.

Short Course / Mendelian Randomization / University of Bristol / http://bit.ly/352CzfT Short Course / Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases / Erasmus MC / https://bit.ly/2UAKEUf Short Course / Cancer Epidemiology / Erasmus MC / https://bit.ly/2Eeb0Wg Short Course / Child Psychiatric Epidemiology / Erasmus MC / https://bit.ly/2rvWLEz

Epidemiology Events Do you have an event of interest to the epi community? Please help The Epidemiology Monitor keep the community informed by sending your event information to us for inclusion in the calendar on our website and in the monthly issue of The Epidemiology Monitor http://www.epimonitor.net/Events.htm

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Notes on People Do you have news about yourself, a colleague, or a student? Please help The Epidemiology Monitor keep the community informed by sending relevant news to us at this address for inclusion in our next issue. people@epimonitor.net

Resigned: Marcel Salathé, from the Swiss National COVID-19 Science Task Force. Salathé is currently associate professor at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne He is the director of the Lab of Digital Epidemiology in Geneva. According to media reports, Salathé was appalled by Switzerland’s shortcomings in the digital field. He said, “Medical data exchanged by fax, codes for the SwissCovid application sent with an immense delay, computer systems deficient for vaccination…In a few weeks, we have seen how much the country is behind in digitization.” Salathé is launching a new organization CH++ to advance digital skills policy, taking action with the administration, and helping citizens to forge a digital future, according to the media report. Died: Jane Murphy, at age 91, on February 9, 2021 after a stroke. Dr Murphy was a former professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, a faculty member at Massachusetts General Hospital, a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, and an adjunct professor of psychiatry at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia. She served as Director of the Stirling County study in psychiatric epidemiology, the longest running study of its kind seeking to understand the prevalence and types of mental illness across generations in a cross-cultural community. Resigned: Karthik Kondapally, an epidemiology investigator with the Ohio Department of Health. The resignation came after it was uncovered that the health department had undercounted Ohio’s COVID-19 deaths by 34%. Kondapally was responsible for reconciling two mortality data sets (real time death data and death certificate data) which led to omitting approximately 4,000 deaths, according to Stephanie McCloud the Director of the Ohio Health Department. She told the media, “If there is any solace to take from this, I was glad we were not overreporting the deaths. That through that manual verification , we had not inadvertently overreported and exaggerated the problem. At the time, deaths went up from 12,000 to 16,000. Actions taken recently by the Ohio Health Department which appear to be related to this incident include reassignment of Sietske de Fitjer, Ohio state epidemiologist, from chief of the Bureau of Infectious Diseases to the Bureau of Health Improvement and Wellness. Also, Kristen Dickerson, formerly Manager for Statewide Health, Wellness, and Special Programs at the Bureau of Workers’ Compensation has been appointed Chief of the Bureau of Infectious Diseases.

- People cont'd on page 14

Notes on People, continued from page 12 Do you have news about yourself, a colleague, or a student? Please help The Epidemiology Monitor keep the community informed by sending relevant news to us at this address for inclusion in our next issue. people@epimonitor.net

Honored: Mike Ryan, WHO epidemiologist and Head of WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, with the 2020 Romero award from Trocaire, an Irish nongovernmental organization, for “consistently highlighting the threat of COVID-19 in the developing world and the need for global solidarity in our response to the virus.” The award is named in honor of Saint Oscar Romero who was assassinated in 1980. (See related article in this issue.)

Died: John Boring, at age 90, at his home in Decatur Georgia on January 10, 2021. He was a former CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer in Atlanta and eventually became a professor of epidemiology at the Emory Rollins School of Public Health which he helped to create. He served as the first Epidemiology Department Chair. At Rollins, according to his obituary, he brought in acclaimed faculty, developed new curriculum and programs, and taught generations of doctors and public health students the value of evidence-based medicine.

Appointed: Dawn Comstock, as Executive Director of Jefferson County Public Health (JCPH) in Colorado. Comstock was previously affiliated with the Colorado School of Public Health and Environment at the University of Colorado Anschutz. In naming her to the position, the JCPH Board President said, “Her passion, vision, and zeal for public health equity will inspire the Jefferson County team to great achievements. Said Comstock, “I am adamant that we must identify innovative methods to address equity issues…While a physician cares of the health of an individual, we in public health care for the entire population.”

Died: Pierre Claquin, age 74, in Paris on February 4, 2021 as a result of diabetes and kidney disease according to the Daily Star in Bangladesh. Dr Claquin was a former CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer who worked for many years in Bangladesh for small pox and poliovirus eradication. He spent much of his professional career in Bangladesh working for primary health care, maternal-child health and expanded programme on immunization projects. He was also an internationally renowned photographer who loved to portray the life of marginalised people and their livelihoods.

Senior Scientist Distinguished Scientist

The BC Cancer Research Institute (BC Cancer) invites applications for a full-time (1.0 FTE) faculty position at the rank of either Senior or Distinguished Scientist. The successful candidate must be eligible for a faculty appointment at a BC Cancer Partner University, such as Simon Fraser University and/or the University of British Columbia. BC Cancer will facilitate this appointment process. BC Cancer, a part of the Provincial Health Services Authority, is committed to reducing the incidence of cancer, reducing mortality from cancer, and improving the quality of life for those living with cancer. It provides a comprehensive cancer control program for the people of British Columbia by working with community partners to deliver a range of oncology services, including prevention, early detection, diagnosis and treatment, research, education, supportive care, rehabilitation and palliative care. For more information, visit www.bccancer.bc.ca. We are seeking a translational senior or distinguished scientist in lung cancer screening and prevention using individual and population data. The successful candidate will be expected to engage in a multi-disciplinary program of epidemiological, data sciences and translational research. The candidate must be committed to building an integrative research program within the Lung Cancer Research Program at BC Cancer, emphasizing discovery and translation of lung cancer screening and novel prevention approaches to maximize the clinical potential of modern cancer control strategies. The specific objective is to improve treatment outcomes for high-risk cancer patients by leveraging collaborations with established, world-leading programs at the departments of Integrative Oncology and Cancer Control Research and other research departments at BC Cancer and Partner University. The Partner University will be dedicated to the pursuit of excellence in public health while providing an engaging environment for our community of scholars and trainees actively working to advance translational research from basic science to medical applications. Candidates for this position must hold a PhD or MD/PhD degree in mathematics, epidemiology or related area, with postdoctoral research experience. The successful candidate will have demonstrated research skills and research excellence in the area of lung cancer screening and prevention with an established track record and professional experience in cancer prevention and control and cancer risk assessment. Moreover, demonstrated knowledge in public health policy modeling, decision modeling, simulation modeling, statistical inference and dynamic systems will be considered an asset. As a Senior Scientist/Distinguished Scientist at BC Cancer and as a faculty member at a Partner University, the successful applicant will be expected to have an established strong externally-funded and internationally-competitive research program, collaborate with other faculty members, and actively participate in service to the Research Institute, the University, and the academic/scientific community. The candidate will also need to show demonstrated ability to achieve excellence in teaching and will be expected to participate in the undergraduate, graduate and postgraduate teaching activities at the Partner University in their field of expertise. Salary will be commensurate with qualifications and experience. Applicants should send a cover letter, curriculum vitae, detailed summary of research interests and impact of anticipated research program (maximum 5 pages), statement of teaching accomplishments and interests, and have at least 3 reference letters (one must not be a co-author). Equity and diversity are essential to academic excellence. An open and diverse community fosters the inclusion of voices that have been underrepresented or discouraged. We encourage applications from members of employment equity seeking groups as enumerated under the B.C. Human Rights Code, including sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, racialization, disability, political belief, religion, marital or family status, age, and/or status as a First Nation, Metis, Inuit, or Indigenous person.

Applications should be addressed to: François Bénard, MD Vice President Research, BC Cancer

Applications and questions should be sent to: Ms. Laura Florio Research Administration, BC Cancer lflorio@bccrc.ca

ASSISTANT DIRECTOR Population Health Data Sciences Full Time Position at Rutgers, Cancer Institute of New Jersey (CINJ) Under the direction of the Associate Director of Population Science and Community Outreach, directs and manages the data and analytic services that support population science research, community outreach and engagement including ScreenNJ activities, and catchment area responsibilities. Among the key duties of this position are the following: • Serve as Co-Director of the Population Science Shared Resource. • Work with the Rutgers Cancer Institute Shared Resources senior leadership to

manage the long-term planning, development, communications and operational activities as it relates to Population Science Research. • Supervise the day-to-day operation of the Population Science Shared Resource, including oversight of DatStat, RedCap, and other data management software utilized, as well as hiring and training staff. • Work actively in marketing the Population Science Shared Resource through presentations and by actively reaching out to relevant investigators or groups within the University and beyond. • Oversee data collection and analysis for the catchment area including surveillance. Minimum Education and Experience • Applicants must have a terminal degree, preferably a PhD in Mathematics,

Statistics, Computational Science, or related field. Plus a minimum of five (5) years of statistical experience in industry at a research company, government agency, or university setting. Required Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities • Effective oral and communication skills. • Computer literate with proficiency and working knowledge of database and reporting

tools such as Microsoft Word, Excel, Access, and PowerPoint. • Experience with SPSS, SAS, and geospatial/mapping software.

For more information and to apply, please visit: jobs.rutgers.edu/postings/123834 Rutgers University is an equal access/equal opportunity institution.

Columbia University's Department of Epidemiology has a summer institute every June called episummer@columbia that enables anyone anywhere in the world to engage in the worldclass coursework and high-quality instruction offered at Columbia University. It provides opportunities to gain foundational knowledge and applied skills for advancing population health research. episummer@columbia’s intensive short courses are offered in synchronous or asynchronous online learning formats. Registrants for episummer@columbia courses need access to high-speed internet. Specific information about online access is provided to registrants before the course begins.

episummer@columbia: synchronous learning Our synchronous courses vary in length from 4 hours to 20 hours delivered in an online live format. These courses are offered only on a specific date and time allowing registrants the ability to interact live with their episummer@columbia course instructor and other registrants.

episummer@columbia: asynchronous learning Each asynchronous course, varying in length from 5 hours to 40 hours, contains lectures and course material presented online with materials released by the instructor accordingly. The flexible format will include video or audio recordings of lecture material, file sharing and topical discussion fora, self-assessment exercises, real-time electronic office hours and access to instructors for feedback during the course.

Detailed information on the program:

http://bit.ly/3osj5Kn

Registration for 2021 is open:

http://bit.ly/2WdMtIy

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