November 2020 - The Epidemiology Monitor by The Epidemiology Monitor

Control Of Covid-19 In The US Is Mostly Bad News, But Highly Effective Vaccines And Declining Fatality Rates Are The Good News As Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are increasing in most US states, compliance with recommended control measures seems to be decreasing. Over 2,000 deaths were recorded in one day before Thanksgiving and the CDC warning to avoid travel over the holiday went unheeded at many airports.

has now recorded over 263,000 deaths and it projects an additional 208,000 deaths by March 1 for a total approaching half a million (471,000) caused by SARS-CoV-2. This prediction assumes that states will re-impose social distancing mandates as risk increases beyond 8 daily deaths per million. Otherwise, the final death count by March 1 could reach 658,000. For now, IHME estimates that daily deaths will reach a peak of over 2,500

More Deaths According to the Institute for Health 2 Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the US

In This Issue

-4Annual Epi Salary Survey -5Notes on People

- Covid con't on page 2

-7Marketplace

FREE Epidemiology Books ~ Pages 11-17 ~

President-elect Biden Releases Seven Point Plan To “Beat” Covid-19 Plan Reflects Belief That It's Not Too Late To Make A Difference The newly elected president Joe Biden lost no time in announcing the creation of an advisory task force and the release of a 7-point plan to tackle the pandemic. The overall guiding principles for the plan are to 1) listen to science, 2) ensure public health decisions are informed by public health professionals, and 3) promote trust, November 2020

transparency, common purpose, and accountability in government. The Task Force of approximately a dozen experts includes at least one epidemiologist, namely Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm. - Biden cont'd on page 3 •

Volume Forty One •

Number Eleven

-11FREE Old Epidemiology Books

-Covid cont'd from page 1 The Epidemiology Monitor ISSN (0744-0898) is published monthly by Roger Bernier, Ph.D., MPH at 33 Indigo Plantation Rd, Okatie, SC, 29909, USA.

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per day in mid-January and may even climb to 5,000 per day if restrictions are eased rather than tightened. Masks The IMHE continues to suggest that increasing mask use to 95% could save many lives, and as many as 65,000 by March 1. However mask-wearing behavior defined as always using a mask when leaving home seems to have peaked at 68%, according to IHME and right now it projects no increase in that percentage. However, President-elect Biden has called for mask mandates at the state level in his revised Covid-19 control plan (see article in this issue), and this policy emphasis could save thousands of additional lives if widely adopted. Good News On the good news side, the IHME estimates that the infection fatality rate (IFR) has declined over time by an

estimated 30% since last spring. This may be due to the use of drugs and learning how to better care for patients over time. Data suggest the IFR varies also as a function of the level of obesity in a community and the age structure of that population. The preliminary reports from randomized controlled trials of highly effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been called nothing less than a “scientific triumph” and one achieved in record time. Rush No Problem According to Arnold Monto, University of Michigan epidemiologist who chairs the Food and Drug Administration’s Covid-19 vaccine advisory committee, the fact that the vaccine was rushed should be ignored. He told local media in Michigan “the rush happened because of extra funds and extra attention that was given. The platform, the way these vaccines were produced, was already there.” ■

2021 Epidemiology Event Calendar Are you planning an epidemiology event for 2021? Whether your event is going to be virtual or live in-person we want to make the epidemiology community aware of it. We have started to build our calendar issue and we want to make sure your event is included. To submit your event

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-Biden cont'd from page 1 Guiding Principles The main goals of this plan appear to stand in direct contrast with the stances of the current Trump administration, especially the reliance on science, the likely return of the voice of the CDC, and the call for mask mandates in every state that can still save thousands of lives. Each of the seven goals includes several more specific objectives. Seven Goals 1. Ensure all Americans have access to regular, reliable, and free testing. More specifically, this goal calls for investing in next-generation testing, including at home tests and instant tests and producing and distributing tens of millions of these tests. 2. Fix personal protective equipment (PPE) problems for good. 3. Provide clear, consistent, evidencebased guidance for how communities should navigate the pandemic – and the resources for schools, small businesses, and families to make it through. According to the announcement, “Social distancing is not a light switch. It is a dial. President-elect Biden will direct the CDC to provide specific evidence-based guidance for how to turn the dial up or down relative to the level of risk and degree of viral spread in a community, including when to open or close certain businesses, bars, restaurants, and other spaces; when to open or close schools, and what steps they need to take to make classrooms and facilities safe; appropriate restrictions on size of gatherings; when to issue stay-at-home restrictions.”

4. Plan for the effective, equitable distribution of treatments and vaccines — because development isn’t enough if they aren’t effectively distributed. Objectives include ensuring that politics plays no role in determining the safety and efficacy of any vaccine. To accomplish this, three guiding principles will be to put scientists in charge, publicly release clinical data for any vaccine the FDA approves, and authorize career staff to write a report for the public and to testify publicly uncensored.

“Social distancing is not a light switch. It is a dial."

5. Protect older Americans and others at high risk. 6. Rebuild and expand defenses to predict, prevent, and mitigate pandemic threats, including those coming from China. 7. Implement mask mandates nationwide by working with governors and mayors and by asking the American people to do what they do best: step up in a time of crisis. To read more specific details of the new plan, visit: https://bit.ly/2KLgtsR ■

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“Objectives include ensuring that politics plays no role in determining the safety and efficacy of any vaccine."

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Announcement

2020 National Survey of Faculty Salaries in Academic Epidemiology Being Launched in December Readers---Please Check Our Mailing List To Make Sure Your Department or School Will Be Participating The Epidemiology Monitor in collaboration with the Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania, Perelman School of Medicine will be sending a link in December to complete the 2020 salary survey of academic epidemiology salaries for the latest academic year 2019-2020. The survey, sent to over 100 departments of epidemiology and preventive medicine, identifies and promotes competitive compensation for faculty members. The continued partnership between the University of Pennsylvania and The Epidemiology Monitor has not only helped to better publicize the survey and its results, but it has also increase the response rate. As was done in the past, the University will perform the analysis of de-identified data, but will be blinded from all identifying institutional information. One institutional representative from each participating institution should provide all anonymized faculty salaries within their division

or department of epidemiology. To perform the analysis, the University of Pennsylvania will have access to the information only after it has been stripped of any institutional identifiers. Responses will be due in early February, allowing respondents adequate time to collect the information for analysis and publication by early spring 2021. The names of the departments to be surveyed are listed here with the name(s) of the contact person being asked for the salary information. If your group is not listed, or the incorrect person is named, please contact us and we will add your institution or seek to identify a representative who can fill out the survey on behalf of your group. Please contact Lisbeth Dennis dennisls@pennmedicine.upenn.edu from the University of Pennsylvania if you have specific questions regarding the survey. For other questions, please contact The Epidemiology Monitor at editor@epimonitor.net â&#x2013;

Near Term Epidemiology Event Calendar Every December The Epidemiology Monitor dedicates that issue to a calendar of events for the upcoming year. However that often means we don't have full information for events later in the year. Thus an online copy exists on our website that is updated regularly. To view the full year please go to: http://www.epimonitor.net/Events

Notes on People Do you have news about yourself, a colleague, or a student? Please help The Epidemiology Monitor keep the community informed by sending relevant news to us at this address for inclusion in our next issue. people@epimonitor.net

Died: J Michael Lane, at age 84, of colon cancer in October in Atlanta Georgia. He was a leader of CDC’s smallpox eradication program which helped eliminate smallpox from the world in 1977. According to his obituary in the NY Times, he joined the C.D.C. and, starting in 1964, devoted his entire working life to the crusade against smallpox and other infectious diseases, and against famine in impoverished countries.

Honored: JoAnn Manson, with the American Heart Association 2020 Research Achievement award for outstanding contributions to cardiovascular research. In giving the award, the AHA President recognized Dr Manson for “…pivotal contributions to our understanding of the role of menopausal estrogen therapy in cardiovascular disease, particularly related to estrogen’s overall risk-benefit profile. Much of what we know today about women’s health and cardiovascular disease is a result of Dr. Manson’s pioneering efforts.” Dr Manson holds appointments as Professor at Harvard Medical School and the School of Public Health and is Chief of the Division of Preventive Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

Died: Diane Elizabeth Bennett, at age 72, in Atlanta Georgia on September 10, 2020. Dr Bennett was an alumna of the Epidemic Intelligence Service at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. She held multiple positions during her public health career including at NIOSH in Cincinnati, OH, the Indian Health Service in Arizona, in Sierra Leone to direct the Lassa Fever Project, with the WHO Global Program for AIDS in Geneva, in London with the Communicable Disease Surveillance Center on tuberculosis, and with CDC coordinating standards for TB testing in Russia. In 2002 she resumed work on HIV, specifically surveillance of drug resistant HIV-AIDs and with the WHO Global AIDS Program in 2006-2009.

- People cont'd on page 6

Notes on People, continued from page 5 Do you have news about yourself, a colleague, or a student? Please help The Epidemiology Monitor keep the community informed by sending relevant news to us at this address for inclusion in our next issue. people@epimonitor.net

Honored: Meghan Winters, with the Trailblazer Award from the Canadian Institute of Health Research. Dr Winters is an epidemiologist and associate professor at Simon Fraser University. The award recognizes her achievements within the field of active transportation either on foot or bicycle and studying how city infrastructure can make these forms of exercise more accessible for people.

Died: Alan Bisno, at age 84, in Miami Florida on August 10, 2020. Dr Bisno was an alumnus of the Epidemic Intelligence Service at CDC and had a long career as a physician, infectious disease researcher, and educator. During his long career he was affiliated with the University of Tennessee and the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine. He led classical investigations of the epidemiology of rheumatic fever and glomerulonephritis as well as other aspects of streptococcal infections ranging from pathogenesis through descriptions of clinical syndromes of disease.

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Emergency Medicine, Injury Prevention Center Faculty MD-MPH or PhD, Senior Scientist The Department of Emergency Medicine (EM) at the Boston University School of Medicine (BUSM) and Boston Medical Center (BMC) seeks an academic faculty member, for our Injury Prevention Center (IPC). Applicants can be at the Assistant, Associate or Professor level, with IPC leadership opportunity for applicants with significant experience. BMC is a level-one trauma center with an annual census of over 130,000, serving as Bostonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s major safety net hospital. The Department of Emergency Medicine is an independent academic department within BUSM and BMC. The BMC ED is the medical control hub and academic base for Boston EMS. We seek candidates with a demonstrated record of injury prevention research to join and assume leadership roles in the IPC. The BMC IPC, founded in 2000, is an ED-based research, education, and advocacy collaborative with focus on opioid harm reduction interventions, violence intervention advocacy, traffic fatalities, youth concussion/brain injury, and older adult falls epidemiology and intervention. IPC personnel include PhD researchers and EM clinicians who collaborate closely with the BUSM Departments of Surgery, Pediatrics, Neurology, and Geriatrics, the Boston University School of Public Health, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and other regional and national injury research centers. Successful candidates will have a MD, PhD, or equivalent degree, and will demonstrate a commitment to the training of EM residents and students and mentoring of junior faculty. Candidates may have expertise in one or more of the current IPC focus areas or in other areas of injury prevention. Preference will be given to applicants with a proven track record in injury prevention research and grant funding. The position comes with competitive salary commensurate with experience, an excellent benefits package, and a faculty appointment. BMC/BUSM is an equal opportunity/affirmative employer. The BMC Department of Emergency Medicine is exceptionally committed to diversity and inclusion within our faculty and residents and welcomes applicants from diverse backgrounds. For further information, contact: Jonathan Olshaker, MD Professor and Chair Department of Emergency Medicine Boston University School of Medicine Chief, Department of Emergency Medicine Boston Medical Center BCD Building, 1st Floor Boston, MA 02118 Email: olshaker@bu.edu

Assistant Professor - Social Epidemiology San Diego State University (SDSU) School of Public Health (SPH) seeks to hire a tenure-track Assistant Professor of Epidemiology, with a focus on social epidemiology and/or health disparities research, to begin in Fall 2021. Primary appointment will be within the Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. The faculty member will support both the undergraduate and graduate curriculum of the SPH and is expected to teach core courses in the Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and develop and maintain an independent program of externally funded research. Additional responsibilities include course development, thesis and dissertation supervision, and field practice supervision. Qualifications: The successful candidate for this full-time, academic year, state-supported position will possess a doctoral degree in epidemiology or other closely related field including public health, the quantitative social sciences, psychology, or medicine. Preference will be given to candidates with training and expertise in social epidemiology and/or health disparities research and use of observational epidemiologic research methods and/or methods that leverage community engagement. We are seeking applicants with demonstrated experience in and/or commitment to teaching and working effectively with individuals from diverse backgrounds and members of underrepresented groups. Candidates must satisfy two or more of the eight Building on Inclusive Excellence (BIE) criteria. Candidates that meet BIE criteria: (a) are committed to engaging in service with underrepresented populations within the discipline, (b) have demonstrated knowledge of barriers for underrepresented students and faculty within the discipline, (c) have experience or have demonstrated commitment to teaching and mentoring underrepresented students, (d) have experience or have demonstrated commitment to integrating understanding of underrepresented populations and communities into research, (e) have experience in or have demonstrated commitment to extending knowledge of opportunities and challenges in achieving artistic/scholarly success to members of an underrepresented group, (f) have experience in or have demonstrated commitment to research that engages underrepresented communities, (g) have expertise or demonstrated commitment to developing expertise in cross-cultural communication and collaboration, and/or (h) have research interests that contribute to diversity and equal opportunity in higher education. Please indicate in your cover letter how you meet at least two or more of these criteria. Environment: The SDSU SPH is ranked in the top 25 public health schools and programs in the nation and third in California. The SPH grants MPH degrees in Health Promotion and Behavioral Science, Epidemiology, Biometry, Health Policy and Management, and Environmental Health; dual MPH/MA degrees in Latin American Studies and Epidemiology, Environmental Health or Health Promotion; dual MPH/MSW degrees in Health Policy and Management and Social Work, and PhD degrees in Health Behavior, Epidemiology and Global Health, and supports the core curriculum of the CEPH accredited SPH and the undergraduate public health major. See our website https://publichealth.sdsu.edu/ for more information. Applications/Nominations: Interested candidates should apply via Interfolio at https://apply.interfolio.com/81209 with the following materials: (1) Curriculum vitae; (2) 2-3 page letter describing epidemiology teaching experience and philosophy, and research interests; (3) 1-2 page statement describing, where applicable, how the applicant's research, teaching and service addresses inclusion and promotes equity and diversity; (4) Names and contact information of three references (who will not be contacted without first informing the candidate). SDSU is a Title IX, equal opportunity employer. Application review will begin January 1, 2021 and continue until the position is filled.

Ambitious Postdoctoral Epidemiologist/Biostatistician wanted for cutting-edge HIV, TB, COVID-19 and multimorbidity research (4 posts) We invite applications from ambitious post-doctoral epidemiologists, biostatistician, health economists or geographer to join Professor Tanser’s and Wong's research group at Africa Health Research Institute in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Training involves research in a mentored environment in the areas of population health, epidemiology, and behavioral science for the cutting-edge HIV, TB, COVID-19 and multimorbidity related research in South Africa. The successful candidates will have access to one of the largest ongoing population-based cohorts in the world - the Africa Health Research Institute’s population cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal, which includes over 90,000 individuals, with individual-level sociodemographic, biological, and clinical record data as well as comprehensive genomics data. The projects will leverage the institute’s existing big data infrastructure, next generation viral gene sequencing platform, comprehensive geographical information system as well as the recently established research platform for tracking individual mobility patterns via smartphones and other on-going projects. The successful candidates will be mentored by leading scientists, who commonly publish in some of the top journals in the field (Science, Nature and the Lancet). Successful candidates will receive a generous tax-free stipend for two years. Once appointed, the successful candidates will be supported to apply for externally funded personal fellowships and grants. Two of the candidates will be based at AHRI’s Somkhele Research Campus in northern KwaZulu Natal, surrounded by many areas of outstanding natural beauty such as the St Lucia greater wetland park, Sodwana Bay and Game reserves. The other two candidates will be based at our state-of-the-art laboratories in the beautiful city of Durban, which is a sub-tropical city on the Indian Ocean coast of South Africa. The minimum qualifications and experience required for these research posts are: -

PhD in Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics, Econometrics, Mathematical Modelling, Spatial Analytics or a closely related quantitative field

Several high-quality publications

Ability to work in a multi-disciplinary team

How to apply To apply, email a detailed CV, cover letter and a research statement describing your research interests to education@ahri.org before 30 November 2020. Please use the subject line: Epidemiologist/Biostatistician postdoc application. Additionally, please state where you saw the job advert or where you heard about the vacancy. Candidates wishing to discuss a specific research topic should email Thulile Mathenjwa Thulile.Mathenjwa@ahri.org. AHRI reserves the right not to make an appointment. Please consider your application unsuccessful if you have not been contacted within four weeks of the closing date.

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Free Old Epidemiology Books Over the years The Epidemiology Monitor has acquired a collection of more than 60 epidemiology related books. We are moving our offices and wish to donate the books to our readers who may have an interest in acquiring one or more of these books. Some are like new because they are left over review copies sent to us from publishers and others are used and may be marked up. U.S. readers who want to obtain one or more of our free books (limit three) should fill out this FORM or send an email to editor@epimonitor.net indicating which title or titles they would like to have and include their name and US shipping address. Alternately you can click the link under each book which will take you to a request form. Books will be shipped on a "first come / first served" basis. The books will be shipped via USPS at book rate free of charge. Due to the higher costs of shipping to any of our international readers, we are not offering these books to readers outside North America. If an international reader has a strong interest in one of the older or rarer books, please contact us at the above address and we can try to work out a special arrangement. Our ultimate goal is simpleâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;to place the books in hands that will appreciate them.

Investigating Disease Patterns

John Snow

(3 videos) 50th EIS Ripples in the Waters of Epi

Ethics & Epidemiology

Clinical Epidemiology

Applied Epidemiology

- Books cont'd on page 12

-Books cont'd from page 11

Epidemiology And The People's Health

Ethics in Epidemiology

Basic Epidemiology

The Epidemiologists Have they got scares for you!

Evolution of Epidemiologic Ideas

Modern Epidemiology

Epidemiologic Methods

An Account of the American Epidemiological Society

Epidemiology Beyond the Basics

- Books cont'd on page 13

-Books cont'd from page 12

Social Injustice And Public Health

Risk, Chance & Causation

Epidemiology - A Very Brief Introduction

Epidemiology An Introduction

Causal Thinking in the Health Sciences

Enigmas of Heath and Disease

Infantile Paralysis

Epidemiology - The Logic Of Modern Medicine

The Life of John Snow

- Books cont'd on page 14

-Books cont'd from page 13

CDC Field Epidemiology Manual

Principles and Practice of Public Health Surveillance

Wade Hampton Frost Pioneer Epidemiologist

Philosophy in Epidemiology and Public Health

A Dictionary of Epidemiology

Introduction to Modern Epidemiology

Epidemiology for the Uninitiated

Inside the Outbreaks

Adventures of a Female Medical Detective

- Books cont'd on page 15

-Books cont'd from page 14

Pigskin Crossroads - the Epi of Concussions in the NFL

Principles of Epidemiology Taylor & Knoweldon

History of Epidemiologic Methods & Concepts

Methods in Observational Epidemiology

Epidemiology Man and Disease

Social Epidemiology

Epidemiologic Methods for Health Policy

Outbreak Investigations Around the World

Epidemiology in Country Practice

- Books cont'd on page 16

-Books cont'd from page 15

Sante - Distinguer Croyances Et Connaissance

Deadly River

Comparative Effectiveness Research

Adverse Reactions The Fenoterol Story

Pandemics What Everyone Needs to Know

Prevention Effectiveness

Principles & Practice of Public Health Surveillance

Field Epidemiology

Causation & Disease A Chronological Journey

- Books cont'd on page 17

-Books cont'd from page 16

Modern Epidemiology Rothman

Segregation, Poverty & Mortality In Urban African Americans

Causal Inference

Deadly Outbreaks

Prevention Effectiveness - A Guide to Decision Analysis

Public Health Surveillance

Dictionary of Epidemiology Porta

Pandemic Influenza Storybook