THE
FANTASY FOOTBALL GUIDE 2017 PROFESSIONAL EDITION
THE FANTASY FOOTBALL GUIDE 2017
600+ PL A YE & P R PRO RO J F ECT ILES ION S
MORE THAN 600 PLAYER PROFILES & PROJECTIONS
EXPERT MOCK DRAFT 14 INSIDERS 13 ROUNDS 182 REASONS
PLUS...
DON’T GET CHEATED * STANDARD * AUCTION * NFFC
CHEATSHEETS
SLEEPERS FOR EVERY TEAM IMPACT ROOKIES STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE WINS OVERRATED OR UNDERVALUED
AMERICA’S LEADING FANTASY RESOURCE
EVERYBODY HURTS INJURY REPORT
Eze Does It
DISPLAY UNTIL OCT 23, 2017
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2017 Writers Poll 4
Awards, Kickers, The Overlooked, Overrated, and Rookies.
10 The Writers Picks Conference Champs and Super Bowl Winner
12 The 2017 NFL Draft Scouting Report
JD Bolick breaks them down, with video (references)
the fantasy football guide2017
22 Everybody Hurts: Injuries and Rehab Report
John LaPresto, SoCalledFantasyExperts.com
27 The Position Rankings
By JD Bolick, Andy Goldstein, David Gonos, Derek Jones, Marc Meltzer, and Matt Wilson. Edited by Andy Goldstein 28 Quarterback 34 Running Back 43 Wide Receiver 54 Tight End 58 Kickers 60 Team Defense 62 Individual Defense
68 Strength of Schedule for Daily Fantasy
Doug Anderson, Fantasy Sports Network
72 Strength of Schedule for Season-long Games Dave Gawron, eXpertLeagues.com
76 The MOCK DRAFT
Fantasy professionals draft teams in late May, curated by Lawr Michaels
NFFC, Standard and Auction lists
87 The TEAM PAGES
Our annotated Depth Charts, with schedules, written by Buck Davidson, Herija C. Green, Zach Greubel, Keith Hernandez, Jason Hoffman, David Orth and Matt Wilson Edited by Herija C. Green
152 All About the Clutch Rate Bob Lung, BigGuyFantasySports.com
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84 Your CHEAT SHEETS
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Letter from the Editor the fantasy football guide2017 President Barry Rosenbloom Publisher Jeremy Bucovetsky Editor-In-Chief Peter Kreutzer Design/Production Mina Chen Senior Editors Andy Goldstein Herija C. Green Writers Rob Blackstien JD Bolick Buck Davidson David Gonos Keith Hernandez Jason Hoffman Derek Jones Zach Greubel Marc Meltzer Doug Orth Lori Rubinson Matthew Wilson Photos Morris Fostoff Mike Jula (for Fostoff Fotos) USA Today Pictures Production Director William L. Ziff Cover Photo Ezekiel Elliott by Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports PUBLISHED BY RFP CORP. CHAIRMAN Mike Rosenbloom PUBLISHING OFFICES 228 E. 48th Street New York NY 10017 TO ADVERTISE CALL Jeremy Bucovetsky 212-838-7733
Dear Readers, You have your hands on the 18th annual edition of The Fantasy Football Guide 2018 Professional Edition. If the magazine were a person, she or he would probably be graduating high school this year, and maybe getting ready to head off to college. Best wishes to you. If the magazine were a marriage, we’d be celebrating with porcelain, maybe shaped as a bust of our first cover subject, Edgerrin James. And if the magazine were a tv show, Fonzie would be jumping the shark right about now. But the magazine is a magazine, and at the end of the taxing production process, where words that were written and edited are torn up when Jeremy Maclin, for instance, is released, and then rewritten and reedited only to be retorn up when he signed with Baltimore, those of us who work on it know the cost of getting it right. In a world of continual changes, we capture our moment as best we can. So, to me, the magazine represents amazing work done efficiently and on time by Herija C. Green and Andy Goldstein, who wrangle excellent contributions from their writers, compose their own copy, and then improve it all and get it to me well before we all go crazy. The magazine holds JD Bolick’s massive annual opus on the NFL rookie class, which is assiduously documented with footnoted video clips, so you can see what J.D. saw on video that make him write what he did. That’s thanks to DraftBreakdown.com and his own conscientious efforts, which should be a book. Really. Two guys from Florida, Dave Gawron and Doug Anderson, handle two different sides of the Strength of Schedule information we present for full-season and DFS leagues. Lawr Michaels puts together an all star mock draft roster, because he is a star of the fantasy sports world and knows everyone. It is a privilege to have him and his mock drafters in the Guide. The person I spend the most time with is Mina Chen, the designer/production person. Mina isn’t much of a football fan, but she’s a quick study and an exceptionally fast and accurate handler of all the raw stuff, copy and photos and graphics, that lands in her inbox and miraculously turns into something as good looking as this magazine. One of the pleasures of this process is getting to read new writers as they join us. John LaPresto contributed this year’s injury report, as he did last year. He’s a colorful writer with a good sense of humor, which is why you should look for him at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com, along with David Gonos (and Doug Anderson). I find Bob Lung’s consistency theory interesting, in part because my first reaction was to challenge his ideas, but after familiarizing myself I’m a bit of a believer. This is good stuff. Visit his site.
The Fantasy Football Guide is published annually by RFP Corp.
Last and certainly not least comes Marc Meltzer, who has been here longer than anyone but me and JD Bolick, and who has been a bulwark in just about every aspect of this endeavor.
Publisher assumes no responsibility for unsolicited materials. Copyright 2016 by RFP Corp. All Rights Reserved. Copyright under the Universal Copyright Convention and the International Copyright Convention. Copyright reserved under the Pan-American Copyright Convention.
In the end, I’m responsible for quality and all screw ups. And while I’m sad I sometimes make misteaks, please let me know at askrotoman@gmail.com what they are. I am happy to list corrections, to get it right in the end, at blog.askrotoman.com. Thanks for joining us and have a great season! Sincerely,
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writers Poll
Most Valuable Player Jake Ciely says Tom Brady will win MVP, because the Patriots are unstoppable and have 734 weapons for Brady. Brady is no bold prediction, says Vlad Sedler, but it’s hard to imagine a world where Brady and the Patriots don’t crush opponents yet again all season. Folks always doubt Brady, says Ray Flowers, but that never works. Oldest MVP is currently Peyton Manning, at 37 years old, notes Bob Lung. Sounds like a challenge for Brady in 2017. Brady is surrounded by so many weapons, Marc Meltzer says it is hard to see anyone else close. Brady is the greatest living American and now he has “Touchdown Mike” Gillislee, Brandin Cooks, Rex Burkhead and Dwayne Allen to go along with last year’s offense, says John LaPresto. Brady doesn’t quite bring another championship home to New England, says Buck Davidson, but he parlays a fine receiving corps into some stellar season numbers. Brady’s elite production and leadership earns him the nod as the league’s MVP. Brady’s the cover boy for Madden NFL 18: G.O.A.T. Edition, says HC Green. What better way to celebrate than with a third MVP? Drew Brees is so consistently good, yet somehow always gets overlooked, says Steve Gardner. He’ll raise everyone’s performance level around him as the Saints become one of this year’s surprise teams. Derek Carr is the heart and soul of the Raiders, says Matt Wilson. Everybody noticed how Oakland completely fell apart after Carr broke his ankle late in 2016. The now vet will direct a monster resurgence for the Raiders using a host of deadly weapons, says Lawr Michaels. Aaron Rodgers will continue to cement himself as arguably the best gunslinger as he leads the NFL in touchdowns and leads the
Packers to the Super Bowl, says Zach Greubel. Rodgers deserved to be MVP last season, says JD Bolick, and an improved Green Bay defense will help them win enough games to get him the trophy in 2017. Rodgers, because he’s always a threat, and if the Packers ever start a season like they have ended seasons lately, he’ll be a shoo-in, says Andy Goldstein. Brady may put up bigger numbers than Rodgers, Lori Rubinson says, but Brady has a better team around him. Green Bay should have a running game, making Rodgers unstoppable, says Jason Hoffman. Without a true running game in Green Bay, Justin Mason says Rodgers will once again shoulder the Packers chances at a playoff spot and title run. If Ezekiel Elliott is suspended, just look at the difference in the offense with and without him, says Howard Bender. If no suspension, he’ll lead the league in rushing yards and potentially TDs as well. The fact that Arizona realized its passing game was more efficient when throwing more passes to players out of the backfield, says RotoRob, only makes David Johnson a more valuable a fantasy asset. You didn’t ask about the fantasy MVP, says Jake Ciely, but I’d say David Johnson, because if Bruce Arians is really going to let him have 30 touches a game, the man will break records (or a leg).
NFL Rookie of the Year Colts running back Marlon Mack would have to be considered a long shot coming into the season, says Marc Meltzer. He will likely need a Gore injury early in the season to see enough action. Christian McCaffrey is in a perfect spot in Carolina, says Bob Lung. He’s the guaranteed back on third down and you know Jonathan Stewart will get hurt, it’s just a matter of when. Samaje Perine will take the backfield job
outright early in the season and lead all rookie running backs in rushing yards, says Howard Bender. Corey Davis lands in a spot where he can grow with an up-and-coming quarterback, says RotoRob, and the fact that Tajae Sharpe may be slowed early on gives the rook a chance to establish himself right out of the gates. Davis has the size and the skills to make an immediate impact, says Steve Gardner. He became a star immediately after arriving at Western Michigan; he can do the same in Tennessee. Yeah, it’ll probably be a running back, says HC Green, but I like Davis as the top wideout on an ascending Titans squad. Leonard Fournette will see all the red zone carries he can handle (which will be all of them), says Vlad Sedler, and is my favorite among rookie backs to finish the season with the most rushing yards and touchdowns. Tom Coughlin didn’t draft Fournette at No. 4 overall to not use him as a workhorse and balance that offense, says Jake Ciely. Tom Coughlin is trying to recreate his old Giants teams in Jacksonville, says JD Bolick, which means big things for Fournette. The Jags have needed a back since the days of Fred Taylor, Justin Mason says. Fournette will be the focal point of this offense. It’s his backfield, says Zach Greubel. Fournette will have the best statistical season of any rookie in 2017. Fournette will anchor the offense in Jacksonville, which could surprise folks this year, says Jason Hoffman. Fournette should play all three downs with the Jags, says Ray Flowers. Fournette will get the carries and production to win this, says Andy Goldstein. Tom Savage isn’t the answer, and the Texans know it, says Matt Wilson. The dual-threat Deshuan Watson has tons of big-game experience and will have plenty of weapons around him. Watson wins NFL fans’
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Last year three writers, Jake Ciely, Jack Delaney and Rob Blackstien picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, which is surprising only because in the end it seemed so inevitable. It wasn’t, and that’s why we collect comments from the writers of the magazine on a variety of topics for the upcoming year. Any individual comment may be brilliant, or laughable, but combined in a dense and pungent stew of ideas and opinions, something new is created. Call it fantasy football umami.
4 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | writers Poll
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With contributions from Buck Davidson, Marc Meltzer, Rob Blackstien, Vlad Sedler, Bob Lung, John LaPresto, Justin Mason, Lori Rubinson, Howard Bender, Matt Wilson, Jake Ciely, Steve Gardner, JD Bolick, Andy Goldstein, HC Green, Ray Flowers, Zach Greubel and Lawr Michaels.
hearts with his thrilling style of play; his passing and rushing skills earn him the league’s top rookie honors, says Buck Davidson. All Watson has to do is not be terrible and the Texans should win 10 games and make the playoffs, says John LaPresto. Lori Rubinson thinks Fournette is the obvious choice, but her gut says that Dalvin Cook will be the guy. Mike Williams will be one of many toys wizened vet Philip Rivers makes use of, says Lawr Michaels.
Offensive Player of the Year Last season, Tom Brady racked up huge passing numbers and won a Super Bowl without the regular services of Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks, says Matt Wilson. If Brady wins MVP, says Bob Lung, he’ll win this, too. Ditto, says Marc Meltzer. That Brady guy I picked for the MVP, says Jake Ciely, and if not him, that Johnson guy I picked for fantasy MVP. The Pats are loaded and it could be a 2007-type of season for the Pats offense, says Lori Rubinson, making Brady Offensive Player of the Year easily. Without a true running game in Green Bay, Justin Mason says Aaron Rodgers will once again shoulder the Packers chance at a playoff spot and title run. Rodgers and the Packers should have the most reliable running game they’ve had at their disposal in several years, says John LaPresto, giving them even more scoring opportunities. Jason Hoffman says Le’veon Bell. Bell averaged 157 yards per game last year, says HC Green, which was nearly 25 more than the next-best player, Ezekiel Elliot. The Cowboys O-line is still one of the league’s best, says Buck Davidson, and the supremely talented Ezekiel Elliott reaps the benefits of their skill on his way to another monster season in 2017. Elliot’s a true three-down
back with the ability to score from anywhere on the field, says Steve Gardner. With all respect to Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott, Vlad Sedler says David Johnson is the league’s most complete, dominant back. In 2016, Johnson became the first player since 2006 to score at least 400 PPR points, notes Zach Greubel. If the Cardinals can reach the playoffs, this award is his. Johnson shoulders a bigger load for his team than any other running back, says JD Bolick, and his numbers will continue to be absurd. Johnson, the best all-around player in the NFL proves it, says Lawr Michaels. For the second year in a row, says Howard Bender, Johnson will prove to the world he can do it all. Ray Flowers calls Johnson the most complete offensive back in football.
Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack is almost as important to the Raiders as Carr is, says Matt Wilson. Last season Mack dethroned J.J. Watt as the king of the defensive players, and Mack will keep the crown for another year. The fifth year of his contract was exercised but he can smell free agency coming, says Howard Bender. Mack continues to excel as the anchor of Oakland’s improving defense, notes Jason Hoffman. Mack’s domination continues, as the Raiders have a powerful and well-rounded team that should be playoff bound again, says Vlad Sedler. He just keeps getting better, says Andy Goldstein, and it’s starting to get scary. Among the best pass rushers and defenders, Mack will lead the Oakland D the same way Carr will push the offense, says Lawr Michaels. Landon Collins follows up on his outstanding 2016 season with another stellar campaign, says Buck Davidson, and this year he earns enough notice to take home the gold. Aaron Donald is the
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most talented defender in the league and should continue to wreak havoc on offenses, says Justin Mason. Donald flat out dominates, says Ray Flowers. Donald is the best player the average fan never gets to see. He was historically good last season, says John LaPresto. Eric Berry is a fantastic defender and ball hawk, says Steve Gardner. He’ll make plays all over the field—and take a few of those turnovers to the house. Von Miller should have won this award last year, says Zach Greubel, but he’ll bring home the hardware this year. He is the anchor of arguably the best defense in the NFL and has averaged 13.5 sacks in seasons in which he has played at least 15 games. J.J. Watt is healthy and looking to dominate the NFL once again, says Bob Lung. Not too many defensive players can control a game like him. If Watt is healthy, says Lori Rubinson, this should be renamed the JJ Watt award. Watt is back to 100 percent and a half human/half mythical beast, says Jake Ciely. Nothing stops him. JD Bolick expects Watt to come back with a vengeance after missing almost all of last season.
Best Kicker The Patriots offense continues to roll, says Buck Davidson, and this season they will generate a few more field-goal chances for Stephen Gostkowski, who returns to his accustomed place atop the NFL scoring leaders category. Matt Wilson and Ray Flowers agree. The Patriots offense will be a scoring machine thanks to all the offseason talent upgrades. Justin Tucker is the best kicker in the NFL right now, says Marc Meltzer. Tucker is annoyingly good at what he does, says John LaPresto. Tucker is the most consistent, no make that automatic kicker in the game, says Steve Gardner. Powerful, writers Poll | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | 5
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clutch, accurate. Tucker is the best in the business right now, and he does it all outdoors, says HC Green. Forever and always, say Andy Goldstein, because he sings opera as well. Lori Rubinson likes Tucker because he doesn’t miss kicks unless they’re blocked. There was not a more accurate kicker in the NFL last season than Tucker, says Zach Greubel. Tucker is the league’s best kicker even if he doesn’t end up being the best fantasy kicker, says JD Bolick. Tucker has been about as automatic as a kicker can get, says Jason Hoffman. The only time Tucker missed a FG last season, it was blocked, says Justin Mason. Matt Bryant led all kickers in PATs and was among the top five in field goals, Vlad Sedler points out. Always reliable and works in a high-scoring offense, says Howard Bender. Bryant has a great track record on a team that is good at getting close to the red zone and generally plays in the warm, says Lawr Michaels.
Overlooked Quarterback Blake Bortles Went from underrated to overrated to now being underrated again, says JD Bolick. Take another look at his 2015 numbers. David Carr If healthy, he has some of the best weapons in the game, Justin Mason says, and adds beastmode to the backfield. Big year coming. Carr is being drafted as a QB in the 8-12 range, says John LaPresto, but could easily finish in the top 3-5. Kirk Cousins Cousins was Top 6 in total fantasy points and consistency, says Bob Lung. However, his current ADP is around QB12. The man gets no respect. Andy Dalton With added skill players at his disposal, Dalton should return to low-end QB1 status, says Jason Hoffman. More weapons added and still falls down draft boards? Why, Howard Bender asks. Andrew Luck Offseason shoulder surgery may keep him from being mentioned among the top QBs in the game, says Steve Gardner, but as long as he’s healthy by the end of training camp, he has a great chance to return to his 40-TD form of 2014. Eli Manning Overlooked? With the addition of Brandon Marshall he is, says Ray Flowers. Carson Palmer They’ll call him old and leave him for dead, says Vlad Sedler, but if Palmer can stay healthy, he can put up a top-10 QB season with this offense. Dak Prescott Was a top-seven fantasy QB as a rookie and I’m seeing him ranked outside top 12, says Lori Rubinson. Gives you points with his arm and his legs. Philip Rivers The most consistent quarterback in the NFL not named Drew Brees, says Zach Greubel. He has achieved nine straight seasons of QB1 production and can be drafted in the ninth or tenth round. Has Keenan Allen back and only about two less weapons than Brady has, says Jake Ciely. Matthew Stafford He was the seventh-best fantasy QB last year, Matt Wilson points out, and has finished as a top-10 fantasy passer in five of the last six seasons. But he’s sliding outside the top 15 in many preseason ranks, as usual. He was the 15th quarterback selected in the magazine mock draft, says Marc Meltzer, way too low for a quarterback who has not missed a game in the past six seasons and has at least 4,200 yards passing in each season. Tyrod Taylor Fantasy football isn’t about wins and losses, it’s about numbers, says HC Green, and Taylor gets less respect than any dual-
threat QB out there. He falls in drafts, says Lawr Michaels, but he is a complete package on a team with some pretty good offensive weapons. Taylor is probably thought of as inconsistent, says Andy Goldstein, but he really didn’t have many dud games last year and is a really nice value right now. Carson Wentz Has some new weapons in his arsenal this season, says Buck Davidson. The much-maligned youngster could post some surprisingly good stats in his second NFL campaign.
Overrated Quarterback Blake Bortles Sigh, his great 2015 was a fluke, says Lawr Michaels. Derek Carr HC Green just has a feeling the Raiders are going to lean on their running game more than people expect. Kirk Cousins Washington lost their two top receivers, says JD Bolick, so it would be a mistake to assume that Cousins will maintain his recent performance. Andy Dalton Is he able to produce QB1 numbers? Absolutely, says Zach Greubel, and he’s done it in previous seasons. Unfortunately, he lost the best part of his offensive line and has a trifecta of capable running backs. Eli Manning Add as many weapons to the Giants as you want, he is way past his prime and the Giants need to find a successor, says Justin Mason. Marcus Mariota The Titans want to throw more, but their “Exotic Smashmouth” ground game will still be their bread and butter, says Matt Wilson. How pro ready are rookies Corey Davis, Taylor Taywan and Jonnu Smith? Cam Newton The big drop-off last season doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect a major bounceback, says Vlad Sedler. Newton was only the 18th highest scoring quarterback last season, says Marc Meltzer. Even during Cam’s MVP season his consistency rate was only 69 percent, notes Bob Lung. Not bad, but not elite. Regardless, his current ADP is QB6, even after last season’s 44 percent consistency rate. Dak Prescott Had a storybook rookie season, but be careful when betting on a repeat performance in 2017, says Buck Davidson. Prescott should be good, but he might struggle at times now that opposing coaches have a year’s worth of video to help them prepare their defenses. Decent, says Howard Bender, but without Elliott in the backfield, he’s just run-ofthe-mill. Ben Roethlisberger Look at those road splits from the last three years, says Jake Ciely. The man turns into Tebow on the road. He is a diva and never plays 16 games, says Ray Flowers. The hits that Roethlisberger has taken are starting to take their toll, says Jason Hoffman. Matt Ryan Loses Kyle Shanahan’s guidance on offense, says John LaPresto, and if you don’t think that’s a big deal, do you have any openings in your fantasy league? Last season everything came together perfectly, says Steve Gardner. The rest of Ryan’s career is a better indication of what’s more likely to happen in 2017. He’ll be good, but not great. Russell Wilson Don’t think they’ve done enough to upgrade the O-line, says Lori Rubinson. Jameis Winston Will be a great player, but there are too many new pieces in Tampa and Andy Goldstein fears it will take a solid eight weeks or so for them to gel.
Rookie Quarterback Deshone Kizer Among all the rookie QBs, Lawr Michaels says he should get the most touch-
es. Mitchell Trubisky Give me Deshaun Watson for my NFL team, says John LaPresto, but for fantasy purposes I’d rather have Trubisky as soon as they pull the plug on Mike Glennon. Deshaun Watson The only rookie passer with serious fantasy potential, says Matt Wilson. The Texans have one of the least desirable groups of quarterbacks in the NFL right now, says Zach Greubel, which is good news for Watson. He has the best chance to make an immediate impact in the league, with Tom Savage ahead of him and a team built to win now, says Justin Mason. Watson should have every opportunity to be the starting quarterback early in the season, says Buck Davidson, and he has the talent and supporting cast to be a fantasy factor by midseason. Tom Savage has about as much chance of being Houston’s quarterback by season’s end as Randy Savage, says HC Green. At least he gets to throw to DeAndre Hopkins, says Andy Goldstein. Has flaws, says JD Bolick, but he is also poised and talented enough to step in immediately for a team with some quality players on offense. Ray Flowers says there is no one really to block him. Might not have to do much to supplant Tom Savage, says Howard Bender. Houston will give him a chance early on if the veterans do not get the job done, says Marc Meltzer. It’s all a matter of opportunity and Watson has the best chance of any rookie to be his team’s starter, says Steve Gardner. Leadership skills he showed in college are a plus. Don’t love any of them, says Lori Rubinson, but I’d bet on Deshaun Watson over the others for rookie potential. While DeShone Kizer may be the better long-term quarterback from this year’s rookie class, Jason Hoffman says Watson will probably be the more valuable signal-caller this year. Smart and athletic rookie should fit in quickly and help DeAndre Hopkins produce another WR1 season, says Vlad Sedler. If only by default since Pat Mahomes, DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky should all sit for a year, says Jake Ciely.
Overlooked Running Back Tevin Coleman Doesn’t get a lot of buzz, but he’s basically ranked at his floor at the moment and if Devonta Freeman misses time, he could be a league-changer, say Andy Goldstein. Was the 22nd running back picked in the magazine mock, notes Marc Meltzer, too low for a guy who already has a role and is one injury away from all the work. ISAIAH CROWELL Averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year, notes Jason Hoffman, and Cleveland vastly improved their O-line. He could be a strong RB2. Mike Gillislee Goal-line runner extraordinaire, Gillislee will fill LeGarrette Blount’s old early-down and goal-line back job, says Matt Wilson. Had the best TD/touch rate of any back who carried at least 100 times last season. He averaged nearly six yards a carry, says John LaPresto, and scored eight TDs last season on Buffalo and now will most likely be the starter for the Patriots. Frank Gore Yes, I know he’s old, says Bob Lung. However, he rushed for 1,000 yards last season at age 33. Is there any reason to believe that he can’t do it again? Nope. Todd Gurley He just needs some running room to show off his natural talent, says Steve Gardner. Sean McVay’s new regime will find a way to get it done. Kareem Hunt Spencer Ware had exactly one 100-yard game last year, says HC
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writers poll Green. Are we sure he’s good? Carlos Hyde Has put up RB1 numbers… when healthy. Now, Kyle Shanahan is in town, and just look at what he did for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, notes Jake Ciely. Granted, he needs to stay healthy. Doug Martin Figures to free-fall in fantasy drafts, says Buck Davidson, but he has been impressive in offseason workouts, and is only a year removed from fantasy superstardom. With his early season suspension, says Ray Flowers, his potential is being overlooked. Paul Perkins Opposing defenses will be focused on the Giants’ passing attack, says JD Bolick, and Perkins has little competition for touches at running back. Bilal Powell Never seems to get credit for being a strong pass-catcher while also being able to take it between the tackles, says Howard Bender. Took over New York’s backfield last year, says Zach Greubel, and Matt Forte only missed two games. The fantasy baton has been passed. C.J. Prosise We’re diving a bit deep, but it’s hard to imagine Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls making it through the season, says Vlad Sedler. Prosise should be a PPR monster either way. Jonathan Stewart He always falls to the bottom, says Lawr Michaels, but is still only 30, and always manages his 850 yards. The Christian McCaffrey hype train is going insane, says Justin Mason, but Stewart is still the starter and the TD guy out of the RB corps.
Overrated Running Back Jay Ajayi Almost half of his yards came in three games, says HC Green. He isn’t much of a receiver and he entered the NFL in 2015 amid long-term concerns about his knee. Matt Wilson says Ajayi’s three monster outings from 2016 (the 200-yard rushing games) accounted for 49 percent of all his rushing yards and 50 percent of all his rushing touchdowns. He rushed for more than 79 yards in just one other contest. C.J. Anderson Every year it is supposed to be his breakout season and every year, it doesn’t happen, says Andy Goldstein. Leonard Fournette Has the opportunity, says Howard Bender, but did the Jags do enough to build their offensive line? Doesn’t look like it. Todd Gurley Still being drafted within the first two rounds, notes Vlad Sedler, but concerns remain about his efficiency with his runs and his offensive line. Gurley is here based on the Rams’ poor offensive outlook, says Jason Hoffman, not because of his skill set. Jordan Howard With Mike Glennon and/ or Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, defenses will be stacking the box against Howard and the Bears, says Zach Greubel. Plus, the Bears will likely be playing catch up a lot, forced to pass. Kareem Hunt Could be overdrafted, as he will have to battle with Spencer Ware, says Ray Flowers. Carlos Hyde Had a breakout season last year, says JD Bolick, but San Francisco has a new offensive scheme that does not fit him well at all. Eddie Lacy He doesn’t catch much, notes Lawr Michaels, and doesn’t seem to get the ball enough to merit being a top pick. Even when he gets the ball, not much results. Christian McCaffrey Lori Rubinson likes him as a player but he’s getting picked way too early. Get back to her after he has an NFL track record. Lamar Miller At some point, we need to admit he’s not what everyone wants him to be,
says Jake Ciely. D’Onta Foreman is a power back and then some. Could easily be a 50/50 backfield share to start the season. DeMarco Murray Gets overlooked here because his first half was good enough to mask his lackluster performance down the stretch, says John LaPresto. Latavius Murray Scored a dozen rushing touchdowns last season, but he will be hard-pressed to approach that number running behind a rather shaky offensive line in Minnesota, says Buck Davidson. Add rookie Dalvin Cook to the mix, and it’s easy to envision a major fallback in 2017. Adrian Peterson May have a role early in the season for the Saints, says Marc Meltzer, but it is tough to see him contributing all season.
Rookie Running Back Dalvin Cook I think he’s got a chip on his shoulder for every team that passed on him in the draft, says Lori Rubinson. Leonard Fournette This one’s too easy, says Vlad Sedler. The obvious choice, says Jason Hoffman. Fournette will get every chance—meaning more than the other rookies—to establish himself, says Lawr Michaels. It’s a deep and talented rookie running back class this year, says Zach Greubel, but it’s hard to see anyone outperforming Leonard Fournette. Ray Flowers says Fournette is the best. Fournette fits with what his team does well better than how Christian McCaffrey fits with his, says JD Bolick. Fournette is a Mack truck running downhill, says Andy Goldstein. Fournette should be in line for a huge workload in Jacksonville, says Buck Davidson, and he figures to be a fantasy factor even if he loses some third-down reps. He’s my Rookie of the Year pick, says Jake Ciely, so… The Jags have needed a back since the days of Fred Taylor, says Justin Mason. Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook should both have strong seasons, says John LaPresto, but no rookie RB will see as many opportunities as Fournette. Marlon Mack There are a lot of high-profile backs to choose from, Marc Meltzer says, and he is going a little off the grid with the Colts running back as his pick. Joe Mixon Know how you get people to stop talking about what you did off the field? HC Green asks. By producing on it. Samaje Perine He has landed in a very good situation, says Matt Wilson. Perine has a great chance to beat out Robert Kelley for the starting job and will run behind a good line, unlike some of the other high-profile rookie backs, and play in a functional offense. Won’t take him long to outplay Robert Kelley or Chris Thompson, as he can do it all, says Howard Bender.
Overlooked Receiver Davante Adams Finished second in the NFL in receiving TDs last year and left a few on the field, says HC Green. Entering a contract year, he should be dialed in. Keenan Allen He’s already working out with his teammates and is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a torn ACL, says Steve Gardner. No one has seen how good he can be since the middle of 2015, but he’s only 25 and still in his prime. Kelvin Benjamin Terrible year for Benjamin and his team in 2016 suggests a big bounce-back in 2017, says Lawr Michaels Corey Coleman It’s easy to overlook just about everyone on the Browns, says Buck Davidson, but Coleman looks
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to be in line for plenty of targets as Cleveland’s top aerial option. The second-year man can absolutely fly. Stefon Diggs Was a mild disappointment last year, but that is keeping his value down, says Andy Goldstein. Josh Doctson Was arguably the WR1 in last year’s rookie class and no longer has to worry about Pierre Garcon or DeSean Jackson competing for targets, says John LaPresto. Larry Fitzgerald Just like Frank Gore, the aging veteran is grossly overlooked at wide receiver, Bob Lung points out. Fitzgerald was the second most consistent receiver in 2016 and ranked ninth in total points. His current ADP is WR32. Great value indeed! He has been overlooked the last few years, says Ray Flowers. Pierre Garcon Going way too late based on the numbers he has posted over the past several years with some mediocre quarterbacks, says Marc Meltzer. Tyreek Hill I don’t like him off the field, says Lori Rubinson, but if you’re just judging on the field, he should be drafted higher than his ADP. Jarvis Landry Top 10 in catches and receiving yards, notes Justin Mason. All he needs is the TDs... they’ll come. Rishard Matthews Crazy breakout last year and everyone is already drooling over Corey Davis, says Howard Bender. Solid route-runner with a nose for the end zone and almost hit 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, Vlad Sedler points out. Should complement Corey Davis well in Marcus Mariota’s pass offense. Breshad Perriman Injuries and off-field events have kept him from showing his first-round pedigree, says Jason Hoffman, but he’s a potential difference maker at a WR4/WR5 price. Willie Snead The Saints wouldn’t have traded Brandin Cooks if they didn’t believe that Snead could take on an even bigger role in their offense, says JD Bolick. Mike Wallace The Ravens lost Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken and Dennis Pitta during the offseason, Matt Wilson points out. Wallace’s main competition for targets is unproven Brashad Perriman. Let’s see, says Jake Ciely, he is a receiver who finishes inside the Top 25 every year—except for that misery of a season with the Vikings. How is he not good enough for you?
Overrated Receiver Davante Adams Had 50 receiving yards or fewer in 10 games last season, notes John LaPresto. Why is no one talking about this? Keenan Allen No question Allen is good, says Lawr Michaels, but first he must stay healthy. Second, he must contend with a bunch of other pass catchers in LA. Dez Bryant The Dallas offense doesn’t revolve around Bryant anymore even when he is healthy, says JD Bolick, which he too often isn’t. Brandin Cooks Cooks moves from a prolific passing offense in New Orleans to a New England attack that is more balanced—and often seeks to spread the football around, says Buck Davidson. To be clear, I don’t dislike Cooks, says Zach Greubel, but the nest is overflowing in New England and Cooks may not get enough worms. He landed in the ideal real-life situation in New England, says Jason Hoffman, but there are too many quality options in New England for him to be an elite fantasy wideout. Amari Cooper He’s Brandin Cooks but with fewer touchdowns, says Jake Ciely. Seriously, the inconsistency is maddening and he might be writers Poll | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | 7
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allergic to the end zone. He’s a very good player, says Lori Rubinson, but didn’t lead his own team in catches or TDs. Getting drafted higher than his previous production suggests that he should, says Marc Meltzer. Mike Evans Just like his quarterback in Tampa Bay, says Bob Lung, the hype is way too high. His current ADP is WR4, the seventh overall pick. His consistency rate was 13th amongst wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins He’ll be catching passes from either Savage or Watson, notes HC Green, two guys with a combined 92 passing attempts in the NFL. Desean Jackson He is aging and soft, says Ray Flowers. Alshon Jeffery Can’t seem to stay on the field and something tells me we’ll hear about some unruliness in Philly this year, with Jeffery in the middle of the fracas, says Vlad Sedler. Brandon Marshall He is yesterday’s news, says Andy Goldstein. He’ll have a couple good games but shouldn’t be drafted as a starter. Donte Moncrief Matt Wilson doesn’t think touchdown-dependent Moncrief is going to develop into a reception machine, like some folks are still expecting. He gets red zone looks, says Howard Bender, but doesn’t see a world of targets or rack up any consistent yardage. Sammy Watkins IF he could stay healthy, we would be talking about a stud, says Justin Mason. BIG IF though.
Rookie Receiver Corey Davis Should be the best of a very talented rookie receiving class, says Jason Hoffman. Big, powerful receiver should adjust to the NFL quickly and flirt with WR1 numbers, says Vlad Sedler. He has Terrell Owens similarities and will be the Titans No. 1 receiver by midseason, says Jake Ciely. Davis is the safe choice here, says Zach Greubel. Best rookie receiver is Davis, says Ray Flowers. Plenty of opportunity with Titans and a good QB in Mariota, notes Lori Rubinson. Strangely, most of the top rookie wideouts have landed in crowded receiver corps, says Matt Wilson. Assuming his surgically repaired ankle is okay, Davis ended up in a great situation. He’ll start immediately with just Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker as the main competition for targets. Opportunity meets talent for the new Titans WR, says Justin Mason. Davis is a proready wideout on a team with a talented young quarterback who desperately needs a primary target, says JD Bolick.Davis should see plenty of footballs headed his way this season, and his size, route-running skill and ability after the catch figure to make him a fine offensive weapon and potential red-zone target, says Buck Davidson. I can pick someone other than Davis, and not go with the chalk, says John LaPresto, but Mike Williams and John Ross have a ton of competition for targets as well as some injury concerns. No other rookie wideout is stepping into a better situation with Marcus Mariota improving and no one standing between Davis and a starting job, says HC Green. Zay Jones Marc Meltzer says he has a clear shot to playing time in Buffalo. John Ross Lightning-quick speed and will easily surpass Brandon LaFell as the team’s No. 2, says Howard Bender. Just needs health because he has everything else, says Andy Goldstein. Mike Williams Explosive competition that will eat into Allen’s receptions, says Lawr Michaels.
Overlooked Tight End Martellus Bennett Put up strong numbers with Jay Cutler, notes JD Bolick, so what do you think he’s going to do with Aaron Rodgers? He’s always been on the verge of a breakout, but never been able to maximize his physical talents, says Steve Gardner. He’ll be the main tight end in Green Bay. Teaming up with Aaron Rodgers could be a lethal combination. Cameron Brate Was a reliable red-zone target for Tampa Bay last season, says Buck Davidson, and he should reprise that role in 2017—despite the presence of highly-touted rookie O.J. Howard. Everyone’s ignoring his production last year and drafting Howard much higher than Brate, says Lori Rubinson. Under the radar with O.J. Howard on the squad, says Vlad Sedler, but Bucs’ coaches will certainly keep him involved as a big part of this offense. Charles Clay After struggling with injuries for most of 2016, Matt Wilson points out that he came on late in the season, amassing topthree production from Week 14 through Week 17. The Bills receiver corps is very thin behind Sammy Watkins and rookie Zay Jones. Jack Doyle Has a reasonable chance to end 2017 as a top-five tight end, says Marc Meltzer. Was a No. 1 tight end in 2016 despite Dwayne Allen starting ahead of him, says Zach Greubel. Doyle proved to be a big threat near the endzone and has already earned Andrew Luck’s trust. He has a nice rapport with Luck and is a red-zone threat, says Ray Flowers. Eric Ebron Sure, he only caught one touchdown, but that’s due for positive regression based on how many yards he had, says Jake Ciely. Plus, the Lions didn’t address the tight end position to give him any competition. John LaPrestosays, remember that he just turned 24 years old and finished with more than 700 yards as a 23 year old despite numerous injuries. Coby Fleener There’s still room for him to be a legitimate starter, says Andy Goldstein. Jimmy Graham HC Green is not sure people noticed that he looked like Jimmy Graham again last year. Kyle Rudolph If healthy (a big if), he should continue to pile up receptions as Sam Bradford’s security blanket, says Jason Hoffman. Breakout season in 2017 that no one has talked about, says Howard Bender. Should play same exact role this season. Julius Thomas Last year in Jacksonville, he missed seven games but he still had a 56 percent consistency rate (which ranked him 12th for tight ends), says Bob Lungf. I’m easily predicting Top 12 this year. Delanie Walker Gets no respect, says Justin Mason, but all he has done in Tennessee is produce. Jason Witten He is almost an afterthought as a No. 2 TE in drafts, says Lawr Michaels, but at 35 he bagged 69 catches for 673 yards last year.
Overrated TIGHT END Jared Cook Not good, says John LaPresto. Stop the madness, please. Jack Doyle It might take some time, but he will be overrated before the end of August, says Jake Ciely. Remember everyone cursing his name as he stole Dwayne Allen’s value last year? Well, be prepared to curse Eric Swoope’s name this year. Tyler Eifert Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me three times, HC Green asks, why did I draft someone who’s always
hurt!?!? One of the best tight ends in the league when he’s healthy, notes Zach Greubel, but he has not played a full season in his four-year career. He missed half of last season and is too big of a risk to draft as a starting tight end. Ray Flowers points out that Eifert is continually hurt. Eifert had an insane stretch in 2015, says JD Bolick, but he can’t stay healthy and there is too much competition for targets in Cincinnati. Zach Ertz He has never piled up touchdowns and he’s facing much stiffer competition for targets in Philly this year, says Jason Hoffman. Coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, says Matt Wilson, but it’s hard to see Ertz matching his top 10 production with more mouths to feed in an overhauled Eagles receiver corps. Jimmy Graham No question he is good, says Lawr Michaels, but no longer a better target than Kelce or Olsen, let alone Gronk. Rob Gronkowski Is overrated from the perspective that nobody discounts his draft position based on his injury history, says Marc Meltzer. Can’t stay healthy, won’t stay healthy, says Howard Bender. An early-round pick for three good games all year? No thank you. Bob Lung apologizes to all of the Gronk lovers but he will never pick a tight end in the first or second round in any normal fantasy draft. O.J. Howard History tells us that rookie tight ends typically struggle to adjust, says Buck Davidson, so don’t assume that his skill set will translate into production in his first NFL season. He’s a rookie, says Lori Rubinson. Rookie TEs tend to struggle. Jordan Reed So incredibly talented, but you’re paying a high pick for a guy who has yet to play a full season in his four year career, says Vlad Sedler. Love the talent, says Justin Mason, but dude can’t stay healthy. His health situation is approaching critical warning status now, says Andy Goldstein, and it makes drafting him at his current value tough to swallow.
Rookie Tight End O.J. Howard Can be a key cog in the Bucs offense, says Marc Meltzer. He’s Ray Flowers’ pick. Big, strong, fast and should be a starter, says Lawr Michaels. He may not start right away, with Cameron Brate in the mix, says Zach Greubel, but he is the best tight end on the Buccaneers’ roster. OK, Howard may not be dominant but he should be the best of the rookies, says Lori Rubinson. David Njoku O.J. Howard will be a popular pick, but he’s the better blocker between him and Cameron Brate, says Jake Ciely, and as of Week 1, Brate is the better receiver. Njoku has a legitimate chance to be a top-ten tight end as a rookie, says JD Bolick, given his skills and the Browns’ questionable receivers. Freak athlete with a huge opportunity, says Justin Mason. The Bucs have a lot of weapons on offense, says Vlad Sedler. The Browns are going to need Njoku offensively this year and he will be ready to make an impact. Njoku might be the best pass-catching rookie tight end, says Jason Hoffman, and he figures to catch lots of check-down passes from Cleveland’s so-so quarterbacks. Njoku has Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman to battle for targets, says John LaPresto. As soon as you stop laughing about that go ahead and grab Njoku as your TE2. Should see strong targets as the No. 3 option for whomever quarterbacks this dumpster fire, says Howard Bender. OJ Howard has to deal
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writers poll with Cameron Brate, says HC Green. Njoku is “battling” Randall Telfer and Seth DeValve. Although Matt Wilson thinks O.J. Howard is the better all-around prospect, he notes that Njoku is in a much better situation. Njoku will do the safety-valve thing and have a high pass catching ceiling, says Matt. Cleveland has a terrible defense and will have to operate in must-pass mode a lot to stay competitive. Would be my pick with a gun to my head, Andy Goldstein says, but I don’t love any of them this year. Njoku looks to have a clear path to a starting job, says Buck Davidson, and he should play a prominent role in Cleveland’s offense this season.
Overlooked Kicker Nick Folk If veteran Folk can unseat the inconsistent Roberto Aguayo, Buck Davidson says the former Jet will be kicking in front of what looks like a formidable passing attack in Tampa Bay. Josh Lambo Chargers can put up points but can easily stall inside the red zone with the best of them, says Howard Bender. Will Lutz Based on early ADP, there are about eight kickers being drafted ahead of Lutz, says Vlad Sedler. As long as Brees is in the mix, the Saints kicker is always in play. Repeat after me: the Saints always score points, says HC Green. Dustin Hopkins Quietly composed one of the NFL’s best kicking campaigns in 2016, points out Zach Greubel. While making 81 percent of his field goals leaves something to be desired, he deserves to be one of the first kickers selected in one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. I have to pick one so… says John LaPresto. MATT PRATER He kicks for a decent offense in a controlled environment and can still connect from long distances, says Jason Hoffman. One of the best kickers in the NFL, says JD Bolick, so if the Lions could just take a step forward offensively then he would become one of the best fantasy kickers. Adam Vinatieri He’s like a metronome. just keeps ticking (and kicking), says Lori Rubinson. Blair Walsh If he gets his accuracy issues straightened out, Matt Wilson says he’ll be kicking for a team that finished fourth, fifth, ninth and seventh in kicker scoring during the last four years. Always pretty good, says Lawr Michaels, now kicking for a high-powered Seattle offense.
Overrated Kicker Mason Crosby Has finished outside the top 10 two straight years, say Matt Wilson. The high-flying Packers offense usually scores a lot of touchdowns. Crosby has finished just 18th and 20th in field goal attempts during the last two years. All of them are overrated, says John LaPresto, but especially Mason Crosby. Doesn’t get as many opportunities as you’d think, says HC Green, and kicking in Lambeau at fantasy playoff time isn’t ideal. Stephen Gostkowski Showed a little age in 2016, notes Marc Meltzer, with five missed field goals and three missed extra points. Stephen Hauschka Moving to a team with a significantly weaker offense and a much colder city, Vlad Sedler points out, which is never a good thing for kickers. He won’t have the opportunities in Buffalo that he had in Seattle, says Jason Hoffman. Sebastian Janikowski Al Davis actually drafted a kicker in the first round, says Lori Rubinson. Now that’s
overrated! I’ll go with Janikowski, says Zach Greubel. SeaBass has been kicking, and kicking well, for a long time, but the time has come for better options. Caleb Sturgis Eagles will struggle, says Lawr Michaels, and do we really need kickers? Justin Tucker He is amazing, says JD Bolick, but he can’t possibly equal what he did last season, and the Ravens’ offense doesn’t give him enough opportunities. Adam Vinatieri Still being drafted for his name and reputation, says Howard Bender.
Rookie Kicker Harrison Butker After Graham Gano’s accuracy dipped below 80 percent last season the job is there for the taking, says HC Green. If he beats out Graham Gano, Matt Wilson says he has top-10 scoring potential. Jake Elliott’s His chances of winning the Bengals’ starting kicking job seem favorable with the well-traveled Randy Bullock standing in his way, says Zach Greubel. Brings his strong leg and above average accuracy to a Cincinnati team with a productive offense, says JD Bolick. Zane Gonzalez He has the clearest path to a job this year and should be better than Robert Aguayo last year, says Jason Hoffman. I have nothing else to say about this, says Lori Rubinson. Aldrick Rosas All he has to do is be decent with the Giants offense, says John LaPresto. Potentially high-scoring offense, says Howard Bender, but also strong FGA potential with Eli under center.
Overlooked Team Defense Atlanta How about the Falcons? They’re an up and coming D with potential that no one is talking about for fantasy, says Lori Rubinson. Baltimore Ravens quietly ranked in the top five last year and should prove formidable again, says Howard Bender. Jacksonville It’s hard to call the Jaguars overlooked given their popularity in drafts, but this unit could legitimately finish the year as the league’s top DST, says Vlad Sedler. Lots of young talent, says Justin Mason. The Jaguars are very close to being one of the best defenses in the league, says Jake Ciely. Kansas City The Chiefs have finished top 10 in points allowed four years in a row and led the NFL in takeaways in 2016, says HC Green. Oakland Lawr Michaels thinks the entire team is under-rated. Philadelphia The Eagles have been above average creating turnovers the last two seasons and added considerable defensive talent in the offseason, says JD Bolick. San Diego Andy Goldstein is riding with the Chargers this year, as they have some nice individual talent. Tampa Bay The Buccaneers improved markedly over the second half of the 2016 campaign, says Buck Davidson. Defensive Coordinator Mike Smith has shown he can produce top-tier defenses; are the Bucs next to wear that mantle? The Buccaneers really started playing super-tough on their home field late in the season, Matt Wilson points out. They allowed only 10.5 points per game in their last four home games. TB also racked up 14 sacks and 13 takeaways in those contests. I wouldn’t start the Bucs every week, but they’re a sneaky streaming option. The Bucs defense is largely unsung, but they managed 29 takeaways in 2016—third most in the NFL— and finished in the top 10 with 38 sacks, not to
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mention four defensive touchdowns, says Zach Greubel. The Bucs are mediocre when it comes to yardage and points allowed, but their defensive playmaking makes up for those flaws.
Overrated Team Defense Arizona The Cardinals lost so many guys that played substantial roles last year it’s hard to imagine that they don’t take a step back, HC Green said. Atlanta The Falcons defense played an integral role in their Super Bowl run, and their Super Bowl collapse, says Zach Greubel. Sacks and takeaways weren’t an issue in 2016; it was the points and yards allowed. Dallas The Cowboys were fifth in points allowed but average in all other areas. Jason Hoffman says a correction could be coming. Kansas City The Chiefs are too heavily reliant on splash plays for Matt Wilson’s tastes. KC topped the NFL in takeaways but finished 28th in sacks last year. They lost two d-line starters during the offseason. All those special teams points they racked up thanks to Tyreek Hill might be gone if his role changes too much, notes Howard Bender. Los Angeles Rams The Rams have some really talented players but their offense may put them at a disadvantage with turnovers, says Lori Rubinson. New England The Patriots allowed the fewest points in the league last season, notes JD Bolick, but their yardage totals show that they weren’t actually that dominant. No question Bellchick is the smartest coach, says Lawr Michaels, but the string runs out on this defense. Philadelphia The Eagles are a bit too touchdown reliant, says Jake Ciely, which is hard to count on. Seattle Let other people draft the Seahawks too early, says John LaPresto. They won’t be worth it wherever they get drafted this year, says Andy Goldstein.
Rookie IDP Jamal Adams Is an elite talent who has landed in a great situation, says Matt Wilson. The Jets have suspect tacklers in both their secondary and linebacker corps. Looking to make immediate impact in a secondary in dire need of help, says Howard Bender. It’s hard not to think Myles Garrett will be the most valuable rookie defender, says Zach Greubel, but Adams is already one of the best players on the Jets’ defense. Jarrad Davis If he indeed wins the starting job, Buck Davidson says he could pile up plenty of tackles as the Lions’ middle linebacker. Seems to be the most healthy rookie linebacker in line to start this season, says Andy Goldstein. JD Bolick says Davis has the best combination of talent and immediate playing time. Rueben Foster Health is the only thing that will prevent Foster from being a monster, says Justin Mason. Lori Rubinson thinks he’ll play like a mad man on a lousy team so he’ll wrack up tackles. Myles Garrett Number one overall pick for a reason, says Vlad Sedler. Best rookie defensive player this year, says Ray Flowers. He is a bit of a cop-out pick, says Jason Hoffman, but this year’s 1-1 figures to wreak havoc on opposing offenses immediately. Hassan Reddick Slides into one of the best defenses and as a result gets a chance to flourish right off the snap, says Lawr Michaels. Solomon Thomas The consensus will be Myles Garrett, perhaps rightfully, but Thomas could be a beast, says John LaPresto. writers Poll | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | 9
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The Writers Picks
writer AFC Champ NFC Champ Super Bowl Bob Lung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oakland(1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Atlanta(2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Atlanta(3) Matt Wilson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Seattle (5) . . . . . . . . . New England (6) Marc Meltzer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tampa Bay . . . . . . . . . . Tampa Bay (7) Vlad Sedler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (8) . . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (9) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (10) Zach Greubel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (11) . . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (12) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (13) Buck Davidson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (14) . . . . . . . . . . Tampa Bay (15) . . . . . . . . . . Tampa Bay (16) Jake Ciely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (17) . . . . . . . . . . . NY Giants (18) . . . . . . . . . . NY Giants (19) Jason Hoffman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oakland . . . . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (20) Lawr Michaels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oakland (21) . . . . . . . . . . . . Carolina (22) . . . . . . . . . . . . Oakland (23) Justin Mason . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (24) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (25) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (26) John LaPresto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (27) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (28) . . . . . . . . New England (29) Howard Bender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oakland (30) . . . . . . . . . . Washington (31) . . . . . . . . . . . . Oakland (32) Ray Flowers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (33) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (34) . . . . . . . . New England (35) Lori Rubinson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (36) . . . . . . . . . . NY Giants (37) . . . . . . . . New England (38) Andy Goldstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (39) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dallas (40) . . . . . . . . New England (41) JD Bolick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (42) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Seattle (43) . . . . . . . . . . . . Seattle (44) Steve Gardner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pittsburgh (45) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dallas (46) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dallas (47) HC Green . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New England (48) . . . . . . . . . . Green Bay (49) . . . . . . . . New England (50)
Footnotes (1) Everyone stays healthy in Oakland and they make the Super Bowl before heading to Vegas in the near future!
to complement Jameis Winston.
(8) The additions of WR Brandin
them to the game and change very little other than improving their defense.
Cooks, RB Mike Gilislee and Rex Burkhead as well as CB Stephen Gilmore is simply not fair for an already established powerhouse.
(3) No revenge since New England
(9) Rodgers is a magician with impec-
(2) They learn from 2016 in what got
doesn’t make it, but they win their first Super Bowl as their defense stops the Raiders high-powered offense.
cable timing, and if the team around him is healthy, they’ll be focused when it matters.
(4) In the twilight of Tom Brady’s
(10) And they pull off the big upset with a game-winning touchdown in a two-minute drill. Davante Adams catches the 24-yard pass in the end zone.
career (turns 40 in August), the Patriots are operating in Super-Bowl-or-bust mode, and their powerhouse Brady-led scoring machine will get them back to the Big Game.
(5) Look for a rebound from Russell
Wilson, who played most of 2016 at less than 100 percent, and the Seahawks still have plenty of alphas on defense to get the job done. The Packers will have the best regular-season record, but they’ll screw up in the playoffs again.
(6) The Seahawks elite defense won’t
be able to contain the multi-weapon Tom Brady scoring machine completely. Brady and company win it all with a team that’s better than the Patriots squad that captured the Lombardi Trophy last year. Oh, the humanity. Where is Roger (Goodell)? Where is Roger?
(7) Tampa Bay Bucs are piecing
together a very nice squad. They will need to find an effective running game
(11) The Patriots may have lost LeGar-
rette Blount -- the NFL’s touchdown leader last year (18) -- but they’re still loaded. They added Brandin Cooks to an already potent offense. Plus, there’s always Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
(12) The Packers were one touchdown away from punching their ticket to Super Bowl LI. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a little bit better defense, they can make it back to the big show. (13) I’m as tired of the Patriots doing
well as the next non-Bostonian, and I really do believe the Packers have what it takes to best the Patriots in the world’s biggest sporting event. If Green Bay jumps out to a 25-points lead, they’re not giving that up.
(14) Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the New
England Patriots always seem to find a way to get it done, but this season they come up one game short of a Super Bowl championship repeat.
(15) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers field a much better defense than expected, and run the ball just enough to balance one of the league’s better passing attacks. (16) As usual, I deferred my pick to my 97-year-old Granny Lil, who looked away from her beloved Tampa Bay Rays long enough to declare the Tampa Bay Buccaneers her pick to win it all this season. (17) Basically for the same reason Brady is the MVP. This team just won the Super Bowl and added more pieces. Really… is this even fair? (18) Eli Manning is this year’s Matt Ryan, and the Giants have their defense, and groove, back. (19) They’re the only team that can stop the Patriots apparently. (20) (biased pick from a former Wisconsinite, but still…) (21) 25 years as the best team in the NFL, then 35 as the worst? Done, Oakland is back, deadly, and way fun to watch. (22) Cam Newton and his mates will invoke Saberhagenmetrics: Every other year is a monster and this is it. (23) Under-rated, but now much more
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experienced than the world probably imagines.
(24) The Champs have only gotten better in the offseason adding more talent for Brady. (25) Packers finally dropped some
dead weight in Eddie Lacy and will continue to have a fantastic offense.
(26) We are all tired of the Patriots
winning Super Bowls. This may be more wishful thinking than anything else.
(27) No team other than the Raiders improved enough to take down the New England Patriots. (28) It’s still a QB league and Aaron
Rodgers is the best one in the NFC, oh, and now he has a run game behind him.
(29) What’s the point of trying to be cute and picking against New England? (30) Already overdue with this roster and would have been a force last year if not for Derek Carr’s injury. (31) Somehow Kirk Cousins keeps offense rolling with additions of Perine and Terrelle Pryor. Longshot but possible if defense tightens. (32) A parting gift to the Bay Area as
Writers’ Bios RAY FLOWERS (mock) Though known more for baseball than football acumen in some circles, Ray has been a full-time fantasy football analyist since 2001. He’s also the reigning 2016 FSTA Fantasy Football Champion. You can hear Ray six days a week on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). BOB LUNG (Consistently Winning) Has been playing fantasy football since 1985 and has been a national fantasy football writer since 2002. Bob has written for numerous fantasy football sites like FoxSports, Fanball and RotoExperts. He has also appeared on Sirius Radio’s Fantasy Sports Channel. He currently has his own site, BigGuyFantasySports.com. Bob has created his site to share these secrets of consistency with other Fantasy owners. Bob can be reached on Twitter (@bob_lung) or by email (bob@bigguyfantasysports.com). STEVE GARDNER (MOCK) Spent a large part of his childhood playing street football and begging his parents to allow him to stay up late on Monday nights. He’s parlayed that experience and a fondness for numbers into his current job as Senior Fantasy Editor for USA TODAY Sports. You can read his work online at usatoday.com, in the pages of Sports Weekly and don’t miss his fantasy football recap every Monday in USA TODAY’s print edition. JOHN LaPRESTO (House of Pain) Has been playing fantasy sports for nearly 20 years. A member of the Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association and is currently a Sr. Football Writer for
they walk out on their fan base once again in search of greener pastures in Las Vegas.
(33) New England Patriots despite
what looks like a tough second half schedule.
(34) Green Bay Packers now that their
running game might be fixed.
(35) How could anyone not predict the Patriots at this point? (36) I’d love to pick someone else but
not when Belichick trades draft picks for “win now” mode.
(37) If they get a mediocre season at LT from Flowers, they’ve got a championship defense.
(44) A rematch of the Super Bowl XLIX will see the Seattle Seahawks finally put their demons to rest. (45) The offense can’t be stopped and the defense is just good enough to get past Tom Brady and Co. in the AFC title game. (46) Last season was just a warmup. This season will be their breakthrough. (47) In the fourth Super Bowl meeting between these two powerhouse franchises, the Cowboys even the all-time ledger with a narrow victory.
(38) Patriots, even though the Giants
(48) Unlike the NFC where several teams seem clumped together, in the AFC it’s the Pats and then everyone else.
(39) Yawn. (40) Just for the variety! (41) Yawn. (42) It’s boring to pick the New Eng-
(49) We’ve been a game away from Rodgers vs Brady twice in the last three years; both times, the Patriots won and the Packers lost. This time we finally get the dream matchup.
are their kryptonite.
land Patriots, but no one else in the AFC even comes close.
(43) The Seattle Seahawks have a favorable schedule that should allow
SoCalledFantasySports.com. You can follow Roto LaPresto on Twitter @TheJohnLaPresto. DAVE GAWRON (Strength of Schedule)
Has been running Fantasy Sports Expert Leagues in the industry since 2002. Visit www.eXpertLeagues.com to find out more. DOUG ANDERSON (Daily Strength) Has been playing fantasy sports for more than 20 years. He’s a founder of SoCalledFantasyExperts. com and currently works for the Fantasy Sports Network. His work has also appeared on RotoExperts. com, SI.com, Yahoo, USAToday.com and in the pages of many fantasy magazines. He plays in the Tout Wars H2H League and LABR Mixed League. VLAD SEDLER (Mock) Has been playing fantasy football for over 20 years and came within a few points of taking down 100k in the NFFC Online Championship last year. He’s a veteran high-stakes player and a CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Super Challenge in 2013. He writes about DF S for Guru Elite and season-long strategy for RotoWire. You can find him on Twitter @RotoGut. JUSTIN MASON (Mock) Is the lead fantasy analyst and co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits where he writes and podcasts on football and baeball. He also writes for Fangraphs and co-hosts the Tout Wars radio show on the FNTSY Radio Network. LORI RUBINSON (Mock) Hosts a sports talk radio show on WFAN in New York City. This spring marks her 10th year on WFAN, the premier sports talk radio station in
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them to earn home field throughout the playoffs.
(50) How can you pick against a team that won the Super Bowl and then followed that up by winning the offseason as well?
the industry. She’s enormously grateful to everyone who listens and calls in regularly to her show. Tune in at wfan.com. HOWARD BENDER (Mock) Is the VP of Operations and Head of Content for Fantasy Alarm. He is also the host of the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Monday through Friday 4-6pm ET) as well as the host of a variety of other shows on the channel. Follow him on Twitter: @rotobuzzguy JAKE CIELY (Mock) Is an award-winning Senior Writer for RotoExperts.com with more than 15 years of experience. Hosts the 2016 FSTA Fantasy Sports Radio Show of the Year, On Target, on FNTSY Radio and is featured on the Fantasy Sports Network. He’s one of the most accurate experts, finishing No. 1 in Fantasy Baseball in back-to-back years and has a Top 5 average career finish for Fantasy Football. Get the Fantasy deal from Twitter @allinkid. LAWR MICHAELS (Mock) Has been a figure in the Fantasy world since the early 90’s when he wrote for roto-pioneer John Benson. Founder of CREATiVESPORTS (which later merged with Mastersball) Lawr has written for CBS, MLB.com, ESPN, and Fox Sports among others. His “Sizzle/Fizzle” appears in the USAT every Monday, and he covers DFS baseball, football, and golf plus all formats of fantasy baseball and football weekly at Mastersball.com. Lawr hosts “The Tout Wars Hour” every Thursdayon the FNTSY Sports Radio Network at 5 PM, eastern. He lives in El Cerrito, Ca, with his wife Diane, their dogs Jeep and Pavlov. Lawr also plays bass in The Biletones (www.thebiletones.com). writers Poll | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | 11
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rookie report
Forever Young: The T
he prevailing theme for the 2017 draft class of skill position talent can be best described as blurred lines. Many of the running backs have the receiving skills of wideouts, the tight ends have the speed of wideouts, while many of the wide receivers themselves show a running back’s ability to create yards with the ball in their hands. Players like Christian McCaffrey and Evan Engram defy traditional categorization. McCaffrey is ostensibly a running back, yet he could just as easily function as a regular slot receiver if asked. Engram was announced as a tight end, yet his speed, agility, and hands rival any wide receiver’s. The blurred lines between positions appropriately reflect the evolution of NFL offenses, where players are being asked to fill multiple roles rather than to do just one thing well. Unfortunately that makes the task of evaluating them all the more difficult, as it is a challenge to accurately predict exactly how these types of players will be used in different offensive schemes. In order to make the attempt, the evaluation of these prospects has been broken down into an analysis of their abilities, an assessment of the situation they are entering, an estimate of how they will perform during the upcoming season, and a prediction for how they will develop in the future. As usual, tremendous thanks go out to the good people at DraftBreakdown. com, without whom this review would be considerably more difficult. Writing this column used to involve a stack of video tapes, and would later become DVDs, but now revolves around DraftBreakdown’s edited videos where the key snaps of a player’s performance in particular games can be studied with ease. Included in the following column are citations referencing specific plays that demonstrate the elements being described so that you can view them for yourself and make your own judgments regarding these players. If you decide to take advantage of their site, and you should, please drop them a note to express appreciation for the work that goes into providing these resources for fans of football. By J.D. Bolick Quarterbacks: JJMitchell
Trubisky: 6’2” 222lbs, 4.67/40, 2nd overall by the Chicago Bears Ability: Trubisky possesses an exciting collection of tools with precious little experience in using them, having been a starter for only one collegiate season. He has a quick release that allows him to get the ball out accurately even with pressure in his face (vs PITT 4Q 9:58, vs PITT 4Q 2:33). His downfield accuracy is impressive, consistently placing the ball between the receiver and the sideline (vs STAN 4Q 1:15, vs PITT 3Q 2:02). He delivers the ball with touch that makes catches easy for his receivers, but when throwing to the outside he needs to drive the pass with more velocity (@ FSU 3Q 13:50). He has a natural feel for play-action elements, doing a nice job of executing the fake before pulling it out and
quickly delivering the ball to the intended receiver (vs VT 3Q 13:27, @ FSU 1Q 9:10). On routes over the middle, he leads his receivers across the field such that they can secure the ball without slowing their momentum and gain yards after the catch (vs PITT 3Q 10:26).
For someone his size, he is surprisingly slippery in the pocket and can usually make the first man miss (@ FSU 3Q 12:23). He does a nice job of keeping the play alive when the pocket breaks down (vs STAN 1Q 10:43), and he has the ability to elude free rushers, then the footwork to quickly set and get rid of the ball (vs VT 3Q 0:52, vs STAN 4Q 0:34). When under pressure from the outside he has a tendency to bail and roll out to his right rather than step up in the pocket (vs VT 2Q 4:48), but while on the run he does a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield even as the rush approaches, allowing him to find open receivers (vs VT 2Q 12:21, vs
STAN 2Q 13:32, @ FSU 1Q 8:07). He is gifted at throwing on the move, maintaining a stable platform with open shoulders from which he can accurately deliver the football (@ FSU 2Q 8:52).
Trubisky’s lack of experience shows most clearly in his attempts to read coverages, as he doesn’t always anticipate where underneath zone defenders will be and how they will react to the routes around them, leading to interceptions (vs VT 4Q 8:18). He is also fooled when defenders disguise their zone coverage from the pre-snap read (vs STAN 4Q 14:21). Against Stanford, Trubisky anticipated Cover 2 when they were actually playing Cover 1-Robber and he was not prepared for one of the safeties crashing to the middle, precipitating a costly interception (vs STAN 2Q 11:55). He also has a tendency to stare down his primary read, and as a result, sometimes fails to recognize when another nearby receiver is wide open (vs VT
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NFL Draft of 2017 Top 10 for 2017 1) Leonard Fournette 2) Christian McCaffrey 3) Joe Williams 4) Kareem Hunt 5) Dalvin Cook 6) David Njoku 7) Zay Jones 8) Corey Davis 9) Joe Mixon 10) DeShaun Watson
“...his toughness is impressive.”
Deshaun Watson 2017 #10
scheme and the offensive talent the team ultimately builds around him. JJPatrick
2Q 1:31). That being said, he has the poise in the pocket of a veteran passer, showing no signs of being phased by the pressure of the moment, best exemplified by him cooly converting three fourth down passes before tossing the game-winning touchdown against Pittsburgh.
Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Situation: The Bears made a significant
one year commitment to Mike Glennon which is likely to keep Trubisky off the field during his rookie season. At wideout the team has some interesting young talents, but not enough proven contributors to be confident about the long-term cast. It may also be valid to worry about Trubisky’s performance in wet conditions given his poor performance against Virginia Tech (vs VT 1Q 10:39) and the weather in Chicago.
Present: Trubisky’s poise and accuracy served him well after finally ascending to the starting role at North Carolina, and if pressed into duty with the Bears he would
be capable of competently executing the team’s offense, albeit with the occasional interception due to his unfamiliarity with complex coverages. Given that he needs onfield experience more than anything else, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for Chicago to grant him that opportunity sooner than later.
Future: Trubisky does have the most
intriguing collection of abilities and skills out of this quarterback class. Living up to the price the Bears paid to acquire him will be an extremely tall order, especially given the team’s uncertain future of both its coaching staff and its depth chart. Trubisky doesn’t have such overwhelming talent that it is easy to foresee a possible All-Pro future, yet his combination of intelligence, accuracy, elusiveness, and poise do make him a quarterback with a very high floor who at minimum will be a competent starter at the NFL level. What more he becomes beyond that will depend largely on the offensive
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Mahomes: 6’2” 225lbs, 4.80/40, 10th overall by the Arizona Cardinals Ability: Mahomes arguably has the worst footwork of any quarterback ever selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. His lower body is a complete mess, constantly demonstrating happy feet in the pocket (@ TCU 2Q 7:03) and frequently scrambling into the rush (@ TCU 1Q 4:08, @ TCU 4Q 12:39) rather than staying calm and finding a receiver or getting rid of the football. He simply is not comfortable throwing from a set platform and even when he does have pocket space for a deep throw, he often runs forward into the release (vs OKLA 3Q 6:55). When his primary read isn’t open, Mahomes appears to panic and will move around the pocket chaotically even when there is no immediate pressure (@ TCU 4Q 13:53). If there is pressure, he does a good job of sliding away and then resetting his shoulders to find an open receiver and deliver the football accurately (@ TCU 1Q 14:04), but he is not very athletic and usually cannot make defenders miss either in the pocket or when scrambling. Against a pass rush up the middle he will loft the ball up for grabs (vs OKLA 2Q 14:29, vs OKLA 3Q 4:27, @ IWST 2Q 7:08),
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rookie report
Fortunately for the Cardinals, Mahomes has an arm that makes up for those restless legs, demonstrating intoxicating talent as a passer (@ IWST 3Q 8:18). He throws with natural touch, dropping the ball over trailing defenders (vs OKLA 1Q 11:09). Although the Texas Tech offense boosted his statistics with its screens and running back flares, Mahomes is capable of making every throw, including crossing routes over the middle of the field (vs OKLA 1Q 2:22). He can get rid of the football from a variety of angles, which is useful on the run or when avoiding outstretched arms, but he needs to do a better job of utilizing proper technique for deep passes lest they be underthrown and picked off (@ TCU 1Q 11:39). When he does set his feet and throws with the proper technique, he has the velocity and accuracy to strike downfield into small openings (@ IWST 1Q 9:28). His accuracy on sideline routes is impressive, placing the ball over the receiver’s outside shoulder (vs OKLA 2Q 13:25, vs OKLA 3Q 9:41), and he is particularly adept when scrambling to his right (@ TCU 2Q 8:01), where he shows the ability to deliver the football accurately downfield (@TCU 2Q 13:32). He has a gunslinger’s mentality and prefers to gamble on deep passes (vs OKLA 2Q 5:03) rather than taking what is available and will sometimes ignore wide open receivers underneath (@ TCU 2Q 1:32). When those opportunities aren’t readily apparent due to sound coverage, he sometimes makes bad decisions trying to force the ball into windows that aren’t there (@ IWST 1Q 14:30). Iowa State gave Mahomes fits by rushing only three and dropping more players into coverage in order to shrink those windows.
to do so the likeliest result would be a frustrating number of sacks and interceptions.
Future: The history of quarterbacks mak-
ing significant changes to their mechanics at the NFL level is not encouraging. It does happen periodically, yet Patrick Mahomes has thrown thousands of passes with his inconsistent release points and wild lower body, a degree of muscle memory that will be difficult to overcome. His arm and his knack for making impressive plays, along with the offensive talent Kansas City has at its skill positions, means that he is likely to have some big games and perhaps even big seasons in his future. Ultimately his flaws will prevent him from becoming one of the league’s better passers year in and year out.
JJDeshaun
Watson: 6’2” 221lbs, 4.66/40, 12th overall by the Houston Texans Ability: There is some truth to the notion that the more a quarterback plays, the more his play gets picked apart. Had Watson been allowed to enter the draft following his first national title game performance, he probably would have been selected in the top five if not first overall. A second season in the limelight had scouts and fans focusing more on his weaknesses than his strengths, particularly since only one quarterback in the FBS threw more interceptions last season. Normally that would indicate a fatal flaw precluding professional success, yet a closer analysis of each one revealed that most were not bad decisions. Some were tipped, some happened after a receiver fell down, while others were a result of him throwing into single coverage and expecting his receiver to beat out the de-
Situation: Everywhere except at starting
quarterback, the Kansas City Chiefs have a young offense. The team enjoys one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, several reliable possession receivers, and a breakout slot receiver, as well as some versatile talents in the backfield. This is an offense with talent and speed that should present Mahomes with playmaking opportunities once he ascends to the starting role.
Present: Andy Reid is not pushing aside Alex Smith this season, as the Chiefs are positioned to make a serious run at the playoffs behind their safe yet unspectacular signal-caller. Mahomes isn’t ready to take the reins anyway, and if an injury forced him
fender (vs LOU 4Q 9:48). Those are chances that quarterbacks have to be willing to take if they’re going to make plays downfield. When Watson did take risks, it was typically in situations such as third and long where the downside was lessened (vs OSU 2Q 8:31). The final interception against Pittsburgh (vs PITT 4Q 5:57) did stand out as a particularly egregious decision. WATSON’s toughness is impressive, as he repeatedly stood calmly in the pocket and delivered the football even against a free blitzer (vs ALA 2Q 3:26). With pressure to the outside, he will step forward into the pocket in order to deliver the pass (vs ALA 14:24, vs OSU 2Q 0:54). When scrambling behind the line of scrimmage he doesn’t simply tuck the ball to run but keeps his eyes up to identify open receivers (vs OSU 2Q 0:33, vs LOU 4Q 5:20). When an opportunity presents itself to gain yardage on the ground he has the quickness to exploit opposing defenses (vs LOU 3Q 4:43). On designed runs in short yardage he does not have the power to break tackles, but he does consistently show good vision in finding cut back lanes and gaining what yardage is available (vs LOU 1Q 9:26), making him a valuable asset in the red zone (vs ALA 2Q 6:15, vs OSU 1Q 2:20). Because of that run threat, Watson’s ability to execute play action fakes freezes linebackers and safeties to create one on one matchups for his receivers (vs LOU 4Q 7:13).
As a passer, Watson has the arm strength to make deep throws down the sideline, but he as a poor feel for the depth of his passes (vs LOU 1Q 9:31, vs LOU 3Q 4:50), usually
Photo: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
sometimes leading to costly interceptions (@ IWST 2Q 7:01). He tends to be at his best when the play breaks down, allowing his improvisational abilities to take advantage of breakdowns by the defense.
Leonard Fournette 2017 #1, 2019 #4
“has speed and agility, along with tremendous power”
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chucking it and hoping for the best (vs ALA 1Q 2:05, vs OSU 1Q 9:26, vs OSU 1Q 4:10) rather than adjusting the velocity and arc. His accuracy on deep outs is highly inconsistent, too often overthrowing his intended receiver (vs ALA 2Q 12:22), although he is more accurate when throwing to his left (vs ALA 2Q 0:54, vs LOU 2Q 0:31). If the defender has an outside receiver blanketed in man coverage, Watson uses the back shoulder throw to create enough room for a completion (vs ALA 3Q 0:56). Watson is at his best when targeting receivers between the numbers, particularly down the seams where he shows the ability to zip the ball into tight windows (vs OSU 1Q 10:43), allowing him to make excellent use of tight ends (vs ALA 2Q 7:03). He also does well on crossing routes, leading the receiver to preserve momentum and enable yards after the catch (vs ALA 3Q 7:18). On flare and screen passes he throws a soft, catchable ball with the proper placement to keep the receiver at full speed (vs OSU 3Q 7:40). Although he usually throws to his primary read rather than truly scan for an open receiver, Watson will delay his look in order to hold the safety (vs ALA 1Q 6:39) where many college quarterbacks simply stare down the receiver. That being said, he seems to have tunnel vision and doesn’t notice other defenders in the periphery, failing to recognize ones in underneath zones (vs ALA 2Q 0:49, vs ALA 3Q 14:08). Situation: The Houston Texans are
a playoff-ready roster everywhere except quarterback. The wide receivers are talented with diverse skills, the offensive line is above average, and the running backs keep opposing defenses honest. Head coach Bill O’Brien has a reputation for being a quarterback guru, yet he has been unable to develop a competent passer and his offensive scheme is reportedly one of the more complex to master.
Present: Clemson was one of the best de-
signed offenses in college football, expertly creating space through route combinations that allowed Watson to anticipate who would come open and quickly get the ball to them (vs LOU 2Q 0:09). He executed the offense as designed and didn’t attempt to improvise or force the action. That behavior will earn him the trust of the coaching staff in Houston as soon as he understands the scheme’s concepts and verbiage. Once that happens, he has the poise and skills to immediately become a fantasy relevant quarterback.
Future: Watson’s chronic inaccuracy on
deep passes will always limit his potential,
but if used in a system with play-action and intermediate throws that also take advantage of his athleticism as a running threat, he has the ability to produce average to above average fantasy numbers. The key to how much of his potential he realizes will be how much Bill O’Brien modifies his system to accommodate Watson’s strengths and weaknesses.
and his work in the film room. Should that happen, he will almost certainly throw more interceptions than passing touchdowns while adding some value as a rusher. Over the long-term, the tools are present for him to develop into a league average passer with the arm strength to challenge defenses vertically and the running ability to punish lapses in containment.
JJDeShone
JJDavis
Kizer: 6’4” 233lbs, 4.83/40, 52nd overall by the Cleveland Browns He has great arm strength and the ability to accurately hit a streaking receiver in stride (vs MSU 3Q 3:45, @ USC 2Q 6:57). When throwing down the middle of the field, he passes with velocity and accuracy (vs MSU 4Q 13:45) as well as the touch to loft the ball over underneath zone defenders (vs MSU 1Q 14:47). On intermediate throws to receivers outside the numbers his accuracy is more scattershot (vs MSU 3Q 12:53, vs STAN 1Q 8:16), and his over the top delivery sometimes causes his passes to dive at the feet of his intended receiver (vs MSU 3Q 13:48, vs STAN 2Q 2:17, vs STAN 4Q 3:44). DeShone has far too much confidence in his arm and will force passes into coverage (vs MSU 1Q 4:14), leading to unnecessary interceptions (vs MSU 3Q 7:20, vs STAN 3Q 13:30, @ USC 2Q 1:17). He is noticeably slow to process information (@ USC 2Q 6:07) and get the ball out (@ USC 1Q 7:03). He will see the open receiver, but it takes him an extra second to act on it (vs MSU 3Q 12:57). His deliberate throwing motion and inconsistency on short passes causes him to struggle as a passer around the goal line (vs MSU 4Q 11:53), but he has the size and strength to power the ball in as a rusher (vs MSU 4Q 11:50). Kizer’s statistics weren’t great in large part because his supporting cast at Notre Dame was surprisingly poor. His receivers routinely failed to generate separation and dropped passes too frequently. He also dealt with some very poor pass blocking (@ USC 2Q 1:03, @ USC 3Q 14:19), which forced him to develop the ability to elude free rushers (vs MSU 2Q 12:48, @ USC 2Q 5:15), then get the ball downfield to a receiver (vs MSU 3Q 3:26, vs STAN 4Q 3:10). He has the poise to stand in a muddy pocket and deliver the football accurately down the seams even when expecting to get hit (vs MSU 4Q 14:08). Cody Kessler performed surprisingly well in limited action for the Browns while Brock Osweiler has also shown flashes in the past, so if Kizer is to become the starting quarterback then he will have to earn the job both with his performance in practice
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Webb: 6’5” 229lbs, 4.79/40, 87th overall by the New York Giants It is surprising that the Giants have chosen Davis Webb as their heir apparent to Eli Manning given that Webb is slowfooted with an average arm and poor field awareness. His functional arm strength is adequate for throws between the numbers but lead to problems on attempts outside of them, as his longer passes dive (vs WAS 3Q 12:19) or float (vs STAN 1Q 10:55). He is at his best on a short drop when he plants and fires something over the middle like a slant (vs STAN 1Q 11:47), as well as intermediate vertical routes where he can drop balls over defenders to his receiver (vs WAS 1Q 1:49, vs WAS 2Q 11:17). He does not recognize coverages and will not anticipate where defenders are besides ones in immediate proximity to his target, a weakness which leads to easy interceptions (vs WAS 1Q 14:23). JJC.J.
Beathard: 6’2” 219lbs, 104th overall by the San Francisco 49ers Although San Francisco has no long-term quarterback, C.J. Beathard’s struggles with his accuracy (vs NDSU 1Q 10:02) and poor pocket awareness (vs NDSU 1Q 2:36) limit him to being a career backup.
Running Backs: JJLeonard
Fournette: 6’0” 240lbs, 4.51/40, 4th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars Ability: What makes Leonard Fournette so exceptional is that he has speed and agility to go along with his tremendous power. He doesn’t just run over people, he also has the footwork and balance to make defenders miss in the hole (vs ALA 2Q 14:08, vs ALA 2Q 12:56). Like many big running backs, he is dependent upon his offensive line to let him build up a head of steam, and he struggles to redirect if the line allows early penetration (@ AUB 3Q 15:00). He does a nice job of getting skinny in the hole and squeezing through traffic before accelerating once he clears it (vs WIS 4Q 2:01). He has
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rookie report an upright running style that makes him vulnerable to contact from the side (vs WIS 2Q 2:38, @ AUB 1Q 12:54), but against defenders in front he lowers his pads and delivers a blow to gain extra yardage (vs WIS 2Q 13:44, @ AUB 2Q 10:45). Once he reaches the second level he becomes extremely dangerous, as he has the speed to eat up ground (@ AUB 1Q 6:32, @ AUB 2Q 12:19) and the balance to run through contact (vs WIS 3Q 10:15, @ AUB 4Q 12:07). When the intended hole is plugged, he tries to bounce runs outside but lacks the short area explosion to gain the edge (vs ALA 2Q 11:44, vs WIS 3Q 15:00). On runs that are designed to go outside, he does a nice job of setting up his blocks by baiting the defender back to the inside to create a better angle for his blocker (vs WIS 4Q 11:06). That patience isn’t always on display between the tackles, as on plays with pulling guards, he needs to become more consistent about waiting for his blocking to develop instead of plowing into the defense (vs ALA 1Q 5:16). He usually ran behind a fullback in college, but that also meant that defenses put an extra defender in the box to stop him. Spreading out the defense with additional receivers would arguably make him more effective as an interior rusher. Even though
pears to be emphasizing a more physical, old school approach than the high flying passing attack they utilized in recent seasons. The additions of Branden Albert and Cam Robinson upgrade the offensive line, while Jacksonville has enough talent at wide receiver to keep defenses honest. Former second round running back T.J. Yeldon should continue handle most of the team’s passing downs.
Present: In traditional leagues that do not award points per reception, Fournette has an opportunity to become the top fantasy rookie next season. His versatile skill set as a rusher provides him with the ability to succeed regardless of how defenses try to contain him, and he is likely to lead all rookie running backs in rushing attempts. Future: Fournette’s strengths and
weaknesses are unlikely to evolve much as a professional. He is a punishing runner who will depend on his offense to continue giving him carries, and on his offensive line to keep defenders out of the backfield, but he probably won’t ever be utilized very often as a receiver. That ultimately caps his value somewhere below the position’s best, yet his talent and capacity for carries also mean that he is a safe bet to have considerable rushing value year after year.
2019
Top 10 for 1) Evan Engram 2) Mike Williams 3) Christian McCaffrey 4) Leonard Fournette 5) Alvin Kamara he didn’t run very often out of the shotgun, there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t do it effectively when asked (vs ALA 3Q 14:21). In the passing game, he doesn’t have the route running ability to shake linebackers as a receiver, but he has sufficient hands to operate as a dump off option (vs ALA 3Q 10:51) and the speed to execute wheel routes if left uncovered (vs WIS 3Q 4:39). His technique in pass protection is atrocious, simply throwing a shoulder into the defender and hoping for the best rather than squaring and punching with extended arms (vs ALA 3Q 13:35). Those two elements probably mean that he won’t be used very often in passing situations. Situation: Since Tom Coughlin has
returned to the Jaguars, the organization ap-
6) Corey Davis 7) Joe Mixon 8) Patrick Mahomes 9) Dalvin Cook 10) David Njoku JJChristian
McCaffrey: 5’11” 202lbs, 4.48/40, 8th overall by the Carolina Panthers Ability: McCaffrey is a patient runner with elite agility who sits behind his blockers and waits for the defense to commit and create an opening (vs USC 1Q 14:51), then explodes through the hole to create a long gain (vs USC 2Q 4:43). Unlike most smaller running backs, he doesn’t try to bounce runs outside. He is intent on getting north and south to claim what yardage he can rather than risk giving up ground to gamble on a longer gain. He benefited from tremendous blocking at Stanford, often getting five yards or more downfield before a defender would get near him (vs USC 1Q 13:19, vs USC 2Q 14:13, @ ORE 2Q 0:43).
When stymied initially, he has the ability to gather himself and shift down the line in order to find an opening (vs USC 1Q 7:03), but if that hole fails to materialize, he doesn’t have the strength to push the pile (@ WAS 1Q 3:47, vs USC 1Q 5:50). Penetration causes him significant problems, as he struggles to redirect and accelerate with defenders around his feet (@ WAS 3Q 10:03). He is a high mileage rusher, having taken numerous big hits during his college career (@ ORE 3Q 5:37), and given his smaller stature it is fair to worry about the cumulative effect becoming an issue in future seasons.
What made McCaffrey the eighth overall pick in the draft is his ability to line up wide as a receiver and run the full route tree with quickness that can even beat cornerbacks (@ ORE 3Q 13:18). Because of his acceleration and the difficult angle for defenders, he is extremely dangerous on wheel routes (vs USC 1Q 4:30). He also has the ability to turn short passes into first downs thanks to his elusiveness in the open field (@ WAS 3Q 2:55). When he has time to gather himself after the catch, he is so difficult for the first man to bring down, not only because of his quick changes of direction but because he instinctively understands how to counter the way that defenders are approaching him (@ ORE 2Q 6:05). Although he has the route running of a wide receiver, his hands are that of a running back, as he had some issues with drops (@ ORE 2Q 6:11).
Situation: No team has thrown fewer
passes to its running backs in recent seasons than the Carolina Panthers. Incumbent starter Jonathan Stewart has topped twenty receptions only twice in his nine seasons with the team after doing so in each of his final two seasons in college. Despite the team’s reputation as a running offense, the quality of the run blocking has also been inconsistent, while Cam Newton remains the primary goal line option.
Present: Although the Panthers clearly drafted McCaffrey with the intention of changing their offense, such a dramatic transformation is much easier said than done. Undoubtedly the team will have him run routes as well as give him a healthy dose of carries, but he isn’t going to be the starter in Carolina unless Jonathan Stewart gets injured. Future: Despite being a workhorse run-
ning back in college, McCaffrey’s smaller stature along with his value in the passing game probably consign him to a productive yet complementary role. If the Panthers actually do evolve on offense, McCaffrey has
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the talent to be an extremely valuable player in points per receptions leagues. JJDalvin
Cook: 5’10” 210lbs, 4.49/40, 41st overall by the Minnesota Vikings Cook is a home run threat who can turn a lapse of defensive positioning into a long gain (vs MICH 4Q 14:15). He has the speed to beat linebackers to the edge and turn upfield (@ LOU 1Q 9:22) where he has the elusiveness to make defenders miss in open space (vs UNC 2Q 11:05). He explodes through holes in the defensive front (vs MICH 2Q 7:47), and employs devastating jump cuts to get around oncoming defenders (@ LOU 1Q 4:13). If the intended hole is stuffed, he has the vision and decisiveness to immediately cut back against the grain (vs MICH 3Q 3:41, vs UNC 2Q 4:51). In situations where the defense has containment, he needs to recognize that and cut inside to gain whatever yardage is available (@ LOU 3Q 3:02, vs UNC 3Q 2:43, vs UNC 4Q 9:44). He doesn’t have a strong enough lower body to drive defenders once wrapped up (@ LOU 2Q 3:21, vs UNC 1Q 1:25), but if defenders go for the ball or attempt an arm tackle he has the balance to shed contact and gain yardage (@ LOU 3Q 14:58). Dalvin is comfortable running routes, particularly if defenses slide a linebacker out to cover him instead of a corner (vs MICH 1Q 9:11). As a receiver he snatches the ball with strong hands, then turns briskly upfield (vs MICH 4Q 1:45), although he is prone to drops whenever he anticipates the opportunity for a big gain after the catch. While it is possible that the Vikings could immediately commit to Cook as the team’s primary running back, the more likely scenario for his rookie season is a secondary role where he splits time with Latavius Murray. How equitable that split becomes will determine his present value, and any miscues with fumbling or poor pass protection will swing things in favor of the veteran. With a more prominent role in the future, he projects as the type of player who exposes poor defenses and struggles against the better ones. JJJoe
Mixon: 6’1” 226lbs, 4.50/40, 48th overall by the Cincinnati Bengals On the field, Joe Mixon is a play-making threat with the explosiveness to make defenses pay if they lose containment (@ TCU 3Q 12:42, vs BAY 3Q 0:09). If a hole isn’t immediately apparent, he tends to dance behind the line of scrimmage instead of accepting a short gain (vs AUB 1Q 0:15, @ TCU 3Q 4:56), and he prefers to bounce most runs outside (vs BAY 2Q 7:02). His
style of play illustrates the fine line between patience and indecisiveness. If the blocking opens up a hole while he is hesitating then he has the burst to exploit it (vs AUB 3Q 5:05), but if the hole fails to open then his delays cost his team yardage (vs BAY 1Q 6:48). He plays like a smaller back and usually goes down on first contact (@ TCU 1Q 12:37, @ TCU 4Q 3:36). It is notable that Oklahoma did not use him frequently in short yardage or goal line situations, as he lacks the lower body strength to push the pile, and his upright running style means that if a defender hits him squarely he will not gain additional yards (vs AUB 4Q 14:00). He has some experience being split wide as a receiver (@ TCU 2Q 4:30), but he rounds his routes rather than cutting decisively (vs BAY 1Q 13:35) and thus will be more effective when covered by linebackers than cornerbacks. When catching the football he shows sound technique, securing the pass with his hands before turning upfield (vs AUB 2Q 13:24). Cincinnati’s three headed backfield is going to make it difficult for any of the running backs to establish considerable fantasy value this season. In the future, if he can become more consistent between the tackles and more decisive in short yardage situations, he has the all-around talent to become a valuable fantasy performer. JJAlvin
Kamara: 5’10” 214lbs, 4.56/40, 67th overall by the New Orleans Saints At Tennessee, Kamara averaged just nine carries per game and never had more than eighteen rushing attempts. He runs with short, choppy steps that allow him to change directions quickly and maintain his balance through contact (@ UGA 4Q 6:46, @ TAMU 1Q 1:41, @ TAMU 4Q 7:48). When rushing between the tackles he stays low to the ground and uses his blockers to shield him from defenders (@ UGA 2Q 1:28). His lean makes him difficult to hit squarely, which allows him to fall forward for additional yards (@ TAMU 4Q 6:17) or drive through the contact entirely (@ TAMU 4Q 2:13). When he sees a hole he plants decisively and accelerates through it (@ UGA 3Q 14:04, @ TAMU 2Q 6:00). If the defense has containment, he does a nice job of cutting upfield to gain whatever is available (@ UGA 3Q 11:55) rather than stringing it wide and risking a loss. He has soft hands that allow him to bring in off target throws (@ TAMU 4Q 3:22, @ TAMU 4Q 1:14), while his size and balance make him difficult for defensive backs to bring down after the catch (@ TAMU 3Q 2:16).
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The presence of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson limit his immediate value, but he has the ability to be an every down running back in the future if given the opportunity. JJKareem
Hunt: 5’10” 216lbs, 4.62/40, 86th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs Hunt is a physical rusher who fights for every yard (@ BYU 1Q 3:24, @ BYU 3Q 3:01). While he isn’t particularly fast or athletic, he compensates for talent deficiencies with superior effort and toughness. He is not afraid to run between the tackles (@ BYU 1Q 14:37), and if he makes it through to the second level he has the power to run over defensive backs (@ BYU 1Q 12:56). He has a gift for gaining yards after contact (vs APP 3Q 5:13). Even when wrapped up, he twists to create leverage and fall forward for additional yards (@ BYU 2Q 9:45, vs APP 3Q 1:03). He has the vision to find weaknesses in the defense and flow to open spaces (vs APP 2Q 2:52). As a receiver, he displayed the hands to catch errant throws (vs APP 2Q 4:56), and he has the ability to turn short dump off passes into long gains (@ BYU 4Q 2:29). His record of ball security will earn him touches, as he fumbled only once during his four year college career. He should challenge Spencer Ware for the starting job. JJD’Onta
Freeman: 6’0” 233lbs, 4.45/40, 89th overall by the Houston Texans A workhorse running back who averaged almost thirty carries per game last season, Foreman has considerable straight line speed (vs WVU 2Q 8:58), but takes time to build it (vs WVU 3Q 14:12, vs WVU 4Q 8:33). Despite his size, he plays like a much smaller back (vs WVU 4Q 15:00), frequently dancing behind the line of scrimmage if the intended hole isn’t open (vs WVU 3Q 13:18, vs WVU 4Q 10:15). He had only seven receptions last season, yet he didn’t look overmatched when asked to catch the football (vs WVU 4Q 1:00). Fumbles were an issue (vs WVU 1Q 7:10), losing the ball seven times. Although he probably won’t ever enter a season as the starting running back, he has demonstrated the ability to carry the load if required. It would take an injury to Lamar Miller for him to have significant value. JJJames
Conner: 6’1” 233lbs, 4.65/40, 105th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers One of the most productive running backs in college football before missing a season with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, Conner returned to demonstrate the talent necessary to be an NFL running back. His primary
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rookie report assets are the vision to find holes consistently (vs PNST 1Q 9:50) and a strong lower body that allows him to shrug off contact (vs PNST 1Q 12:12). He doesn’t have the lateral agility or burst to cut back if the initial hole is clogged (vs PNST 4Q 8:42). Although he was not used frequently as a receiver, he can effectively execute screens (vs PNST 3Q 11:49) and flares (vs PNST 3Q 10:42). Given how often Le’Veon Bell misses games, Conner could be in a position to contribute and he has enough talent to be effective when called upon. Perine: 5’11” 233lbs, 4.65/40, 114th overall by Washington Oklahoma’s all-time rushing leader posted a monster season as a true freshman but saw his production decline each year after that. He has the upper body strength to run through arm tackles without slowing down (vs AUB 3Q 3:49, vs AUB 4Q 7:00), but he does not possess the quickness to make cuts when lanes present themselves nearby, and he is unbalanced by contact at his feet (vs AUB 3Q 8:41). His gradual acceleration also means that he is vulnerable to being chased down by backside defenders (vs AUB 4Q 8:51). If he has the blocking to build up a head of steam, he can punish defenders and drive them for additional yards (vs AUB 3Q 10:02). He is a two down back who won’t be a factor in the passing game aside from blitz pick-up. The starting job in Washington is up for grabs, but it’s not clear that Perine is more talented or skilled than Rob Kelley.
Corey Davis 2017 #8, 2019 #6 “plays with aggessiveness and physicality”
JJSamaje
JJJoe
Williams: 5’11” 210lbs, 4.41/40, 121st overall by the San Francisco 49ers San Francisco drafted Williams in the fourth round at new head coach Kyle Shanahan’s request. Williams has rare acceleration that allows him to explode through the hole (vs ORE 3Q 7:13), as well as the wiggle to weave his way through traffic (vs ORE 3Q 10:07) before bursting into the open field (vs ORE 1Q 12:02). When he sees open space, he can plant and drive to quickly change directions (vs ORE 3Q 14:35). He does have a persistent issue with fumbles, as he does not keep the ball pinned to his chest and will carry it out where defenders can pry it away (vs IND 4Q 9:16). He rarely caught the ball with in college but didn’t have any obvious limitations when asked to do so (vs ORE 1Q 3:50, vs ORE 2Q 0:31). Given that he was handpicked by the head coach, Williams should have an opportunity to compete for the starting job.
Wide Receivers: JJCorey
Davis: 6’3” 209lbs, 5th overall by the Tennessee Titans Ability: Extraordinarily productive at Western Michigan, Davis amassed over fourteen hundred yards in each of the last three seasons on the way to setting the FBS record for receiving yards in a career. He plays with an aggressiveness and physicality that helps him win jump balls (vs WIS 4Q 3:39, @ BALL 2Q 2:49) and leads him to punish cornerbacks after the catch (vs WIS 3Q 12:46). Much of his production came on curl routes where he drove the defender downfield as if running a streak, then broke it off short (vs TOL 3Q 6:59, @ BALL 3Q 11:17). On out routes he needs to do a better job of planting and driving sharply rather than rounding the route (@ BALL 4Q 13:36). He needs to be more conscientious about eliminating drops (@ BALL 2Q 10:50), particularly on low throws (vs TOL 2Q 10:50), and about securing the ball away after the catch, as NFL defenders will be more apt to strip it away if he continues to carry it away from his body (vs WIS 1Q 8:47). Situation: The Tennessee Titans have
a talented young quarterback, two gifted running backs, a productive tight end, and an offensive line in which they have made considerable investments. What they haven’t had is a true number one wideout. Rishard Matthews was impressive in his first season with the team, but he should be more of a complementary option over the long-term.
Present: Davis’s experience lining up on the outside and in the slot on both sides of the formation gives him the versatility to play wherever he is needed, while his tremendous hustle (vs TOL 1Q 10:56, vs TOL 3Q 11:34) will earn him the trust of
his coaches and teammates in short order. With the offense being run-oriented again this season, a somewhat limited number of opportunities should make for modest numbers. Future: Davis feasted against lesser
competition in college, benefiting from soft cushions (vs TOL 3Q 11:51) that he will not see often as a professional, but he is a tremendous talent who has the makings of a reliable and productive possession receiver who thrives on the intermediate routes that characterize most NFL passing attacks. He is a strong bet to lead his team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in future seasons.
JJMike
Williams: 6’4” 218lbs, 4.51/40, 7th overall by the Los Angeles Chargers Ability: Williams is a physically dominant wide receiver whose height and strength allow him to go up and over defensive backs to complete the catch (vs ALA 4Q 1:56). His ability to high point the pass by securing the ball with his hands above the cornerback makes him extremely dangerous on contested catches (vs ALA 4Q 5:39, vs OSU 1Q 4:58). He has strong hands and adjusts well to errant throws (vs LOU 2Q 0:19). A variety of releases keep defenders off balance, sometimes driving on the snap (vs ALA 4Q 8:04), sometimes hesitating (vs ALA 3Q 10:10), and sometimes juking the defender in one direction before beating him in the other (vs ALA 4Q 0:09). He is particularly effective on slant routes, where he subtly pushes off on the cut to create separation (vs OSU 1Q 10:43, vs LOU 4Q 7:12). When running quick outs, he needs to plant and drive sharply rather than rounding (vs OSU 2Q 0:58) since the latter allows defenders to undercut the route. He slipped on a number of routes when trying to change directions
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(vs OSU 1Q 13:18), and his questionable balance also prevents him from being much of a threat after the catch. Situation: Keenan Allen’s torn ACL
opened the door for Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman to emerge as productive wide receivers who fit Philip Rivers’ preference for big targets. Antonio Gates also returns for what may be his final season, although he is expected to yield his starting job to second year tight end Hunter Henry.
Present: The competition for targets during Mike Williams’ rookie season will be exceptionally fierce. None of the incumbents equal his talent, so he has a chance to emerge as the team’s primary option if he can earn Rivers’ favor. The likeliest outcome is that wideouts cannibalize each others’ fantasy value by keeping any one individual from receiving a large share of targets. Future: Mike Williams’ physicality and
body control is impressive enough that he should become an unstoppable threat in the red zone, and a frequent target of Philip Rivers’ high arcing passes. Inman and Tyrell Williams probably will not remain with the team much beyond this season, after which Williams should garner enough targets to be a solid second wideout for fantasy teams.
Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
JJJohn
Ross: 5’11” 188lbs, 4.22/40, 9th overall by the Cincinnati Bengals Ability: After missing the 2015 season with a torn ACL, Ross rebounded to top one thousand receiving yards for Washington, then gained everyone’s attention by setting the NFL combine record for fastest time in the forty yard dash. That speed is evident on the field, where his sudden acceleration makes it impossible for cornerbacks to stay with him on post routes without safety help (@ ARIZ 2Q 5:33, vs STAN 2Q 3:51). His incredible speed also helps him on out routes and comebacks because defenders usually bail out over concern about getting beat deep (vs USC 2Q 15:00, @ ORE 2Q 10:39). What separates him from a DeSean Jackson is that Ross usually does not win on contested catches (vs USC 3Q 8:41, @ ORE 1Q 11:05). He has good hands and adjusts well to the ball in the air (@ ORE 3Q 13:15), but does not make sharp cuts and typically won’t create much separation when changing directions. He is not elusive or physical after the catch (@ ARIZ 2Q 1:50) and can only generate additional yards with his straight line speed. Situation: The Bengals have spent
free agent money and multiple draft picks building a corps of receivers to take pressure
off of A.J. Green, and they have definitely succeeded. Andy Dalton has a plethora of weapons to work with, not only at wideout but also tight end and out of the backfield.
Present: Given the competition for targets, it would be a major surprise if Ross was able to generate significant fantasy value during his rookie season. His unparalleled speed may or may not be put to full use by Dalton’s less than elite arm strength, while Green and Eifert will receive the lion’s share of the pass attempts. Future: Ross’s hopelessness as a blocker
and his struggles against press coverage likely limit him to being a slot receiver throughout his career, and he will need to prove that he is more than just a deep threat if he is ever going to develop fantasy relevance.
JJZay
Jones: 6’2” 201lbs, 4.45/40, 37th overall by the Buffalo Bills Last season, Zay Jones became the NCAA FBS record holder for most receptions in a single season and most receptions in a career. He is a smooth route runner (@ SCAR 4Q 4:33) with an instinctive understanding of coverages and where to find open spaces (@ SCAR 4Q 14:31), and the toughness to go over the middle of the field for a completion even if he knows he will take a big hit (@ SCAR 2Q 7:08). He has strong hands as well as the body control to react to poor throws and complete the catch (@ SCAR 2Q 7:35), after which he doesn’t look like much of a threat with the ball in his hands, lacking elusiveness or physicality (@ SCAR 1Q 14:43). On curl routes is that he aggressively sells the vertical component, forcing defensive backs to respect the possibility of a streak route (vs NAVY 2Q 12:14). Once he gets to his mark, he then throttles down and works his way back to the football (@ SCAR 4Q 6:24). Although he wasn’t asked to run deep routes often in college, at the Senior Bowl he showed the speed to get behind quality defenders and be a vertical threat. His size and his effectiveness as a blocker (vs NAVY 2Q 13:26) will allow him to play on the outside in the NFL, where he should immediately seize the starting job opposite Sammy Watkins.
JJCurtis
Samuel: 5’11” 196lbs, 4.31/40, 40th overall by the Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel is a college running back who began the transition to wide receiver last season at Ohio State and will now attempt to make the move permanent. His straight
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line speed is exceptional (vs CLEM 4Q 11:51), and if given a free release, his rapid acceleration upfield has defensive backs scrambling back, which opens up coverage holes underneath (vs CLEM 2Q 2:21). Despite his inexperience at wide receiver, his route running on out routes is crisp (vs MICH 4Q 9:54). For vertical routes, he shows some nice fakes to keep cornerbacks off balance and create separation (vs MICH 2Q 10:30, vs MICH 3Q 5:18). He has poor hands (vs MICH 3Q 13:59, vs CLEM 2Q 11:51) and will not consistently win on contested catches (vs MICH 2Q 8:43). A body catcher who secures the ball against his chest rather than grasping it with his hands, he will always be prone to drops and having the ball knocked loose (vs CLEM 4Q 8:47). That also forces him to slow down, limiting the danger he presents after the catch (vs MICH 4Q 3:41, vs CLEM 2Q 1:35). Christian McCaffrey duplicates many of Samuel’s strengths and will prevent him from being utilized as a receiver out of the backfield where he would face off against linebackers rather than cornerbacks. JJJuJu
Smith-Schuster: 6’1” 215lbs, 4.54/40, 62nd overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers JuJu Smith-Schuster has soft, natural hands (vs PNST 2Q 7:44) and an understanding of where to find the open spaces in zone coverage (vs PNST 1Q 11:39, @ ARIZ 2Q 0:34). His deep speed is mediocre and will not force safety help (vs PNST 3Q 9:30, @ ARIZ 2Q 6:16), but he can still be effective on vertical routes due to his ability to work inside the defender to secure contested catches (@ ARIZ 3Q 10:37). He is an intelligent player who works back to give the quarterback an outlet when scrambling (vs PNST 4Q 1:59), but is not elusive with the balls in his hands and will not make many defenders miss (@ ARIZ 1Q 8:08). He struggles against press coverage and needs to do a better job on slants of sealing the defender from the pass (vs PNST 3Q 13:01, vs PNST 3Q 10:43). His poor effort and technique as a blocker may limit him to working out of the slot (vs PNST 1Q 5:36, vs PNST 3Q 12:46, @ ARIZ 3Q 11:16), which is where he reportedly lined up most frequently during mini camp.
JJCooper
Kupp: 6’2” 204lbs, 4.62/40, 69th overall by the Los Angeles Rams At Eastern Washington, Kupp set the Division 1 records for career receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns thanks to very good hands that pluck the ball out of the air (vs CARK 1Q 13:03). He was used
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rookie report primarily as a big slot and plays somewhat like a tight end by keeping the defender on his back, shielding them from the football (@ WAST 4Q 4:41). He reacts well to throws behind him, able to bring in the pass without needing to slow down, which allows him to generate yards after the catch (@ WAST 2Q 9:36). He has no fear about going over the middle and will elevate to secure the pass (@ WAST 4Q 2:24), while his size and hands make him a red zone threat on fade routes (@ WAST 3Q 10:38). One of the main reasons that his long speed surprises defenders is that he is so slow off the snap (@ WAST 2Q 0:56), but he can beat defenders on vertical routes by using a hesitation move to freeze them (vs CARK 2Q 3:56). What Kupp lacks in speed and athleticism, he makes up for in skill, intelligence, and deception. . JJTaywan
Taylor: 5’11” 203lbs, 4.50/40, 72nd overall by the Tennessee Titans Taylor’s quickness off the snap allows him to beat press coverage (@ ALA 2Q 13:15, @ ALA 4Q 12:36) and immediately put pressure on the safeties to respond (vs VAND 4Q 9:35). His crispness when making cuts helps him create separation (vs VAND 1Q 12:48), while his balance and elusiveness make him a threat for yards after the catch (@ ALA 2Q 0:35, vs VAND 1Q 13:04). He has inconsistent technique when catching the football, sometimes grasping it properly with his hands (vs VAND 4Q 14:06) and other times being a body catcher who is vulnerable to having the ball knocked loose (@ ALA 3Q 7:52). Despite his less than ideal size, his elite acceleration and play-making ability after the catch will allow him to be a productive receiver. JJArDarius
Stewart: 5’11” 204lbs, 4.49/40, 79th overall by the New York Jets Stewart is an aggressive, physical player with plenty of experience blocking on the outside (vs USC 2Q 5:30, vs AUB 1Q 2:58). He has the acceleration and top speed to be an effective deep threat (vs USC 2Q 7:56), or to turn short passes into long gains (vs MSST 2Q 12:47, vs AUB 1Q 9:25, vs AUB 3Q 5:26). He does not have good hands (vs AUB 1Q 13:48), and he struggles to finish the completion when forced to adjust to an errant throw (vs MSST 3Q 11:43). Once he does have the ball, he looks like a running back, showing the elusiveness to make the first defender miss (vs USC 2Q 4:34) and the strength to run over others (vs AUB 1Q 3:29). Given the Jets’ crying need for talent at wide receiver, Stewart will be asked to contribute immedi-
ately and has the opportunity to develop an even larger role in the future. JJCarlos
Henderson: 5’11” 199lbs, 4.46/40, 82nd overall by the Denver Broncos Henderson has good hands (@ TTU 3Q 5:47) and the straight line speed to be a vertical threat (@ TTU 4Q 13:09). His short area quickness and acceleration create easy separation from man coverage (@ TTU 1Q 0:49), while his quick feet allow him to execute effective fakes and double moves that get him behind the defense (@ TTU 3Q 4:49). He has a powerful lower body that helps him maintain his balance through contact and drive for additional yards (@ TTU 1Q 9:16). Henderson is likely to begin the season as Denver’s starting slot receiver, and could end up being the eventual successor to Emmanuel Sanders.
JJChris
Godwin: 6’1” 209lbs, 4.42/40, 84th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers A tough receiver with reliable hands (vs USC 2Q 4:58, vs USC 2Q 2:19) who will go over the middle (vs USC 2Q 10:10), Godwin is limited as a wideout due to poor route running. He is terrible about rounding his routes (vs USC 2Q 3:24), which will cost him against NFL cornerbacks who will recognize the movement and cut underneath him. His combine forty time was shocking because on the field he looks so slow getting into his routes, but he can function as a vertical threat due his effectiveness in outmuscling cornerbacks on contested catches (vs USC 3Q 11:38). JJKenny
Golladay: 6’4” 218lbs, 4.50/40, 96th overall by the Detroit Lions Golladay has very good hands (vs WIU 3Q 0:50) and can elevate over defenders for jump balls (vs WIU 4Q 12:05). His lanky frame makes it easy for cornerbacks to redirect him in press coverage (vs WIU 2Q 4:56), and on contested passes he can be overwhelmed by more physical defenders (vs WIU 1Q 10:43). Golladay’s combination of height, speed, and hands will get him in the lineup as a third receiver with the potential to develop into more. JJChad
Williams: 6’1” 204lbs, 4.43/40, 98th overall by the Arizona Cardinals Williams has impressive straight line speed and adjusts well to balls behind him (@ ARIZ 1Q 13:59). He is unrefined as a route runner, making sloppy cuts that NFL defenders will read more easily (@ ARIZ
2Q 0:29), and his hands are suspect (@ ARIZ 4Q 10:08). With Larry Fitzgerald nearing retirement, there is an opportunity for Williams to become an important part of the passing game if he devotes himself to developing his raw talent.
Tight Ends: JJO.J.
Howard: 6’6” 251lbs, 4.51/40, 19th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Ability: Although Howard’s top speed is phenomenal, it takes him time to build it (vs KENT 2Q 11:56). If he is allowed to do so by the defense, he will race by linebackers for big gains (vs KENT 2Q 6:56), but when jammed at the line he has trouble getting out into his route (vs KENT 2Q 3:57). He has soft hands and good receiving technique (vs AUB 3Q 11:12, vs KENT 1Q 9:21), yet isn’t sudden when changing directions (vs KENT 1Q 1:18), which allows linebackers to stick with him through his cuts (vs AUB 2Q 6:41). He doesn’t have elusiveness after the catch and can be brought down easily by smaller defenders if they go after his legs (vs TAMU 1Q 5:53), but if left open he quickly builds up speed and chews up yardage (vs TAMU 2Q 4:15). Most of the routes he ran came when lined up as an H-back. When he did run from an in-line position, his release appeared slow (vs KENT 1Q 9:45, vs KENT 1Q 8:36). He was not targeted very often around the end zone and did not look comfortable on those rare occasions (vs TAMU 3Q 0:21). Howard is a powerful (vs AUB 2Q 3:30) and skilled (vs TAMU 1Q 9:19) blocker, but the notion that the Alabama offense underutilized him isn’t really true given that he was rarely asked to block when the team chose to pass, and they did scheme to get him the ball fairly regularly on shovel passes and play action fakes. On that play action he did a nice job of selling the blocking attempt before leaking out into his route (vs AUB 2Q 2:00). The reality is that, despite his speed, he is simply more valuable to teams as a blocker than as a receiver. Situation: The Buccaneers have at-
tempted to find receivers to complement Mike Evans’ annual excellence, with Cameron Brate emerging as a productive tight end last season and free agent signee DeSean Jackson providing a new option for Jameis Winston to utilize. The team’s running game struggled last season due both to poor blocking and indecisive rushers.
Present: There won’t be all that many targets to go around after Evans and Jackson, and with both being dangerous deep threats, it seems unlikely that Howard will
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be targeted downfield very often. There is an opportunity for O.J. to emerge as the team’s secondary red zone threat behind Evans, but he has yet to prove that he can capitalize on his size in those situations.
Future: Howard’s athletic talent is immense, so it’s easy to understand why people keep expecting him to become more of an offensive weapon than he is, but the reality is that his skills are not as well suited for that role. He will always be primarily a blocker who also has the speed to attack the seams when called upon. Unless he develops as a route runner and red zone threat, he will never live up to expectations as a fantasy tight end. JJEvan
Engram: 6’3” 234lbs, 4.42/40, 23rd overall by the New York Giants Ability: Engram is not a tight end. He was announced at the draft as a tight end and the Giants have stated that he will be used as an in-line tight end, but he is a large wide receiver and asking him to play anything else would be a mistake. He displays sound technique as a receiver, plucking the pass away from his body (vs FSU 4Q 12:56, vs AUB 4Q 5:58). He plants and drives well when making cuts, creating separation from less agile linebackers (vs FSU 2Q 14:59, vs UGA 2Q 1:40). When on the line out wide, he has the footwork to elude press coverage (vs UGA 3Q 10:33, vs AUB 1Q 11:48). His size and speed make him a dangerous threat down the seams (vs FSU 2Q 9:47, vs AUB 3Q 2:46), although he isn’t particularly elusive or physical after the catch (vs
AUB 1Q 7:27). His hands are maddeningly inconsistent, sometimes maintaining control through big hits (vs FSU 1Q 13:49), then dropping easy passes for seemingly no reason (vs FSU 1Q 9:43, vs AUB 4Q 7:37). Engram’s combination of height, athleticism, and hands make him a dynamic weapon in the red zone where he can elevate over all defenders and high point the football (vs UGA 2Q 0:49). His blocking is appalling (FSU 3Q 4:11), though, lacking the technique or strength to be effective (vs FSU 1Q 7:56), which is why it is hard to believe that he will actually be a tight end rather than a big wideout.
Situation: The signing of Brandon Marshall gave the Giants some much needed size to complement Odell Beckham. Sterling Shepard is a nice possession receiver, but he doesn’t have the play-making ability to draw coverage. With Eli Manning nearing the end of his career, the team clearly feels pressure to capitalize on what remains of its window. Present: If Brandon Marshall had never been signed, this would have been a near perfect landing spot for Engram to contribute immediately. Unfortunately, he duplicates what Marshall provides and it is unlikely that the Giants will displace the high priced veteran for an untested rookie.
Future: As long as Engram continues to
2019 #10
“has the speed to get by linebackers and attack safeties”
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JJDavid
Njoku: 6’4” 246lbs, 4.64/40, 29th overall by the Cleveland Browns Ability: Njoku is an instinctive receiver who shows an understanding of zone coverages and flows to the open spaces (vs PITT 1Q 5:05). If given a free release off the line, he shows the speed to get by the linebackers and attack the safeties almost immediately (vs PITT 1Q 11:53). Even when defenders do attempt to press him at the line, he does a nice job of getting through contact (vs UVA 3Q 13:26). He catches the ball with sound technique (vs PITT 2Q 1:00, vs UVA 1Q 10:29), but he needs to make sure he secures the completion before turning upfield (vs PITT 4Q 12:16). He has the balance and strength to gain yards after the catch, particularly against smaller defenders (vs WVU 3Q 11:13), while his size and hands make him a difficult man to cover in the end zone (vs UVA 2Q 9:33). When the quarterback is scrambling, he does a nice job of moving to open space and providing a target (vs PITT 3Q 1:11). On play action he sells the block before turning and accelerating into his route (vs PITT 1Q 12:55), an underrated skill that will get him open against NFL defenders. Situation: The release of Gary Barnidge
be classified as a tight end in future seasons, he is going to end up becoming one of the best fantasy options at the position. He is a gifted receiver with the speed to be a deep threat and the skills to be productive under-
David Njoku
neath. He should form a potent combination with Beckham for years to come.
leaves the Browns’ tight end position wide open for the taking. Given the team’s modest talent at wide receiver and functional running backs, there is an immediate opportunity for Njoku to become a major factor in the team’s passing attack.
Present: Although Njoku has the technique to be an effective blocker, allowing him to serve as an every down tight end (vs PITT 2Q 7:59). That will get him in the lineup and provide him with the immediate opportunity to post respectable fantasy numbers. Future: Njoku has the speed, athleti-
cism, hands, and technique to succeed at the NFL level and it would be a surprise if he didn’t end up establishing himself as a viable fantasy option for many years to come.
JJGerald
Everett: 6’3” 239lbs, 4.62/40, 44th overall by the Los Angeles Rams Gerald Everett gets off the snap with the quickness of a wide receiver and has some nice wiggle to his route running (vs GSOU 1Q 0:17). He is a body catcher but once he gets the ball in his hands he is a load to bring down (vs GSOU 3Q 9:45, vs GSOU 4Q 10:00).
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injury report
EVERYBODY HURTS
The So-Called Fantasy Experts Injury guide By John LaPresto, SoCalledFantasyExperts.com
DeSEAN JACKSON
Quarterback Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts
Luck appears on our injury list for the second straight year, and if you’re wondering why, look no further than Colts.com. “After being the NFL’s most-hit quarterback over the last five years, Luck decided that surgery was the way to go this offseason.” “Luck-ily” (ehhh?) for fantasy owners, it was just his throwing shoulder and not something of significance (yikes). There have been a number of changes in the timetable for Luck’s return, but they have been inconsistent, just like the rest of the Colts organization. Owner Jim Irsay believes he’ll be ready for Week 1, even though he’ll miss the entire offseason program and likely miss most of training camp. Synopsis: Any setback could cause Luck to miss games early in the season. Make sure you draft a backup with an easy schedule to begin 2017.
Derek Carr Oakland Raiders
Carr suffered a broken fibula at the end of his breakout 2016 season. Fantasy owners need not worry. A broken bone is quick to heal, with fewer complications usually than a soft tissue injury (also known as a Keenan Allen). As of mid-May, Carr was fully healthy and a full participant in OTAs. A free agent in 2018, expect a 30-plus TD season in Carr’s contract year. He will likely be drafted in the 8-12 range for QBs in fantasy drafts, but has an opportunity to finish in the top five. I’m buying.
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers
Newton experienced a career year in 2015 and entered into the infamous “elite” QB conversation. Last year was a completely different story, turning into an extension of the beating Newton took after his post-Super Bowl press conference. Newton underwent surgery in March to repair a partially torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. A
surgically repaired shoulder and a revamped offense could mean a jump in fantasy production from last year’s totals. The important questions are: Is it possible this injury is to blame for last year’s biggest fantasy bust? (Maybe.) Will a new offensive scheme result in fewer rushing TDs for Newton? (Yes.) Will he be able to adjust to his new personnel and improve his short passing game? (I’d like to say yes, but it may be a disaster.) Will Newton stop bleaching the strip of hair on his chin and cease wearing foxtails and fedoras? (One can only hope.) Will we see Cam Newton sport a romper during a press conference? (Most definitely.)
Marcus Mariota Tennessee Titans
Mariota, like Andrew Luck, finds himself on our injury list in back-to-back seasons. And like Derek Carr, Mariota is recovering from a fibula injury. What makes this situation a bit more complicated is that Mariota’s ankle was also injured, and required surgery. Mariota
Photo: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Don’t be that person. You know the one. The person in your fantasy league who is a step behind everyone else, scrambling to keep up. The one who, the day before the draft, uses every minute spent on the toilet searching for player updates. The waiver wire stalker, adding last year’s big name players the moment they’re dropped. Yes, last year is behind us, but not all injuries are. Which is why it’s important to know about those that will carry over from last season. Which players should you shy away from? And most importantly, which players will you be able to draft at a bargain price because others didn’t do their homework? Let us do the research and get you up to speed on the 2017 offseason injury and rehab news you need to ace your draft, and help you avoid the embarrassment of being that person.
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is projected to be ready for Week 1 of the 2017 season, but wasn’t yet running at full speed in OTAs. Normally, this wouldn’t be a large concern, but expectations are high in Tennessee this year. The team decided to put a new VIP room in club Exotic Smashmouth and added three rookie weapons on the offensive side of the ball, namely Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jannu Smith. Rookies typically need to build a rapport with their QB in order to be effective out of the gate. If Mariota misses a significant amount of training camp the breakout season everyone is predicting for Mariota (and Corey Davis) may come in 2018 rather than this year.
Ryan Tannehill Miami Dolphins
I have no idea what to make of Miami head coach Adam Gase’s quote regarding Tannehill’s health. “Looks like he did last year. He moves around fine,” Gase said. “You can tell he wasn’t real happy about getting hurt.” What? That’s Phil Simms-level analysis. Outside of Gase’s non-answer answer, all reports suggest Tannehill’s ACL rehab is ahead of schedule. The health concerns seem to be done, that just leaves questions about production and fantasy value. At first glance it appears as if Gase’s offense could help Tannehill move up the QB ranks after posting a Miami Dolphins record completion percentage of 67.1 in 2016. Let’s dig a little deeper. Per Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, we see that no QB in the league is more reliant on their offensive line than Tannehill. The disparity between Tannehill’s passer rating in a clean pocket (116.6) vs. under pressure (49.1) was the league’s high last season. Based on this information, Tannehill is a more of a streaming matchup play than a breakout candidate. Ryan Tannehill = Alex Smith. Gross.
running back Jamaal Charles Denver Broncos
If you have not yet seen the picture of Jamaal Charles that has the fantasy underworld buzzing, hop on Twitter and search, “Jamaal Charles knee”. You’ll notice what must be an optical illusion, a knee swollen the size of Lavar Ball’s ego. Reports out of Denver suggest Charles is not a guarantee to make the team’s final roster, giving him 50/50 odds. This suggests the team hasn’t yet seen what they’d like out of Charles from a physical perspective and are hoping things improve once training camp begins. Assuming he does make the roster, Charles would likely have more value in PPR leagues, filling a void on third downs and in the short passing game. This is the clear-cut way that Charles is worth keeping on the fantasy radar in 2017.
Carlos Hyde San Francisco 49ers
Hyde is another holdover from last year’s list and will most likely be on next year’s as well. His most productive fantasy season to date ended with a torn MCL. Surgery was not required however, and all indications suggest Hyde should be back to full speed by the time training camp rolls around. The Shanahans are known for transforming RBs into fantasy football household names, so Hyde is a must-own, right? Hyde does have a little shake and bake to his game, but it’s more wham than wiggle, which isn’t ideal in Kyle Shanahan’s typical offense. Hyde is in the final year of his rookie contract, so the incentive will be there to perform, but a savvy move would be to draft rookie Joe Williams as a backup.
Giovani Bernard Cincinnati Bengals
The short version of this analysis is: sell Jeremy Hill while you still can, trade for Giovani Bernard in dynasty leagues while you can still buy low, but above all else, draft Joe Mixon. Bernard is coming off a torn ACL, suffered late last season, and offseason reports suggest he will most likely miss a game or two to start 2017. We’ve played fantasy football long enough to know that “most likely” translates to, “Giovani Bernard suffered a setback in training camp and will begin the season on the PUP list, missing the team’s first six games.” If you’re in a league that drafts prior to the start of training camp, taking Bernard is going to be like the No Pants Subway Day in New York City. It might feel exciting at first, but in the end you’ll probably embarrass yourself.
Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, Thomas Rawls Seattle Seahawks
Most of you probably assume Eddie Lacy is on this list because his lower body is systematically breaking down and can no longer support the weight of an offensive lineman playing the running back position. The scary part is—you might be right. Lacy injured his ankle last season and ultimately required a plate (not a dinner plate), two wires and two screws inserted in order to repair the damage. Prosise, a draft Twitter favorite last season, was essentially a no show due to injuries sustained to his hamstring, hip, hand and ultimately scapula. And last, but not least, there’s Thomas Rawls. A Google search of Rawls in 2016 will result in an anatomy lesson. You’ll see results like, leg, fibula, possible concussion, limited, shoulder, etc. You get the idea. I’d love to pretend to know which of the three stooges is going to hold up the longest but, (insert shrug emoji). Personally, I’ll be prioritizing Lazy -- I mean, Lacy -- in TD-heavy scoring leagues and Prosise in PPR, trying to grab Rawls somewhere in the later rounds if possible.
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Marshawn Lynch Oakland Raiders
Trust me, I’m as excited as everyone else about the return of Beast Mode. The Raiders have primed the pump (trademark rights to Donald Trump?) and are ready to contend for an AFC Championship. Is Marshawn Lynch the missing piece that puts them over the top? (Side note: “Over the Top” is one of the most underrated movies of its era.) Easily forgotten in all of the commotion surrounding “the return” is Lynch’s 3.8 yards per carry and nine games missed due to injury in his last season, in 2015. Yes, it’s true that comparing Oakland’s offensive line to that of Seattle’s is like comparing Donald Trump to Alec Baldwin’s version of Trump. They’re similar in nature, but one of them can come across as quite offensive (I’ll let you pick which one). Now, 31 years of age and a year removed from training with a NFL team, just how likely is it that Lynch’s durability improves enough to carry a full-time load (also known as “a Lacy”)?
Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick Detroit Lions
Abdullah, yet another repeat offender from last season (noticing a pattern yet?) was on everyone’s radar as a fantasy breakout candidate in 2016. Instead of entering the fantasy landscape with a roar, Abdullah went out with a whimper, as his season lasted just two games. A torn ligament in his foot shelved Abdullah, and absolutely no one stepped up in his place and cemented themselves as the lead back for 2017. That’s the good news. The bad news, Theo Riddick should be fully healthy to start the season after undergoing surgery on both wrists. Riddick missed six games last season, but he averaged five receptions per game during the 10 he did play. Given both RBs have similar skill sets, they’ll likely eat into each other’s fantasy production during their battle to be King of the jungle, err… King of Detroit.
Danny Woodhead Baltimore Ravens
Given his underdog story, it’s difficult not to root for Woodhead. And while rooting for someone is one thing, putting one’s faith in them is a different story. Woodhead is coming off a torn ACL and enters this season as one of the few age-32 RBs expected to produce for fantasy owners. Woodhead’s upside is significant, he hauled in 81 receptions in 2015. While that sounds like the type of player who can lift your Fantasy team from six to midnight, keep in mind he has 92 receptions over the last three years combined. Underdog Danny has missed 27 games in that span, which means if you’re going to grab Woodhead, you might want to think about using protection. Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen make up the Baltimore backfield. West owners
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injury report should probably also take a shot on Dixon and Dixon owners should seriously consider being open to taking Woodhead.
Adrian Peterson New Orleans Saints
Peterson is now 32 years of age, has missed a total of 28 games over the last three seasons, suffered a meniscus tear last year and is an RB switching teams. For the humans, these are all causes for concern. Peterson is a physical freak and may in fact be some type of XFiles alien-human hybrid. I want to believe. I’m not going to be the one who declares I have the ability to predict the physical demise of Peterson. What I will do however is declare my belief in the talent of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. It’s a crowded backfield, and if A.P. can stay healthy, I think we can look to Tim Hightower’s 2016 fantasy production for a realistic comp.
wide receiver Sammy Watkins Buffalo Bills
The Bills have no one to blame but themselves when it comes to Sammy Watkins and his wonky foot, which at this point must look similar to the feet of Frodo and the other Hobbits. Watkins played through multiple stress fractures in his foot during the 2015 season and has had multiple surgeries as a result. Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Kevin Durant are all elite athletes who have come back from not only a similar foot injury, but also from complications following their initial attempt to return. If we use Watkins’ 13-game, 2015 season as a standard, a full season is more than 70 receptions, nearly 1,300 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns. The Bills drafted Zay Jones, but added no one else of significance to the passing game, so once again, Watkins should have a comfortable hold on the majority of targets. Buffalo stinks.
A.J. Green Cincinnati Bengals
Keep your opinion to yourself when the other people in your league are discussing their concerns about Green, enabling you to snatch him up in the late-first to mid-second round. Heck, make up a story about how your cousin’s friend’s uncle’s neighbor knows a guy who works for the Bengals and they seem concerned with AJG’s progress this offseason. Green suffered a torn hamstring last season, but doesn’t have a history of missing significant time. In his previous five seasons, Green had missed a total of just four games and there was speculation he may have been able to return before the season finale last year. He’s fine. Buy! Buy! Buy! (Apologies if you now have the Backstreet Boys stuck in your head.)
Keenan Allen Los Angeles Chargers
Allen is quickly turning into an enigma. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with more than 1,000 receiving yards and an average of nearly 15 yards per catch. Allen was slowed in Year 2 by injury and saw both his yards and YPC dip significantly. Seemingly healthy in 2015, Allen was on pace for a monster year, especially in PPR formats. This wasn’t due to explosive playmaking, however, it was more a result of heavy volume. Allen’s YPC was once again under 11. He has now missed games in each of his three four seasons and while he was once considered the top WR prospect in his class, he ultimately slipped in the draft due to injury concerns, some of which may have been justified after all. FYI – I literally copied and pasted this entire paragraph from last year’s magazine, then corrected the number of seasons. Good luck with Keenan Allen. You can have him.
Alshon Jeffery Philadelphia Eagles
Jeffery is one of the most physically gifted players at his position, averaging more than 13 yards per catch in each of his five seasons thus far. He only played 12 games in 2016, however, and while it’s not exactly due to an injury, it might have everything to do with it. Jeffery was suspended four games last season due to a PED violation, an immediate red flag, right? Well, let’s use our common sense skills to see if we can put this story together. Jeffery was injured in 2015 and missed seven games. The subsequent year was his contract year, which meant a huge payday as long as he could stay on the field. We often hear about PED use when players are attempting to return from injury, because PEDs are thought to improve recovery time. Perhaps it’s a stretch, but I don’t believe we need to worry about Jeffery’s health long term. It appears that a guy wanted to make sure he returned to the field in order to produce. Jeffery signed a one-year contract with Philadelphia, so yet again we have the benefit of him playing for a new contract. I’ll gladly take Jeffery if he slips to high-end WR2 territory.
Eric Decker New York Jets
As an avid Patriots fan, I’m keeping my fingers crossed, hoping that the Jets keep Decker and don’t send him to a team he can help put over the top. As a fantasy nerd, I’m praying to the fantasy godz to give Jets management the strength to make one more incompetent move and send Decker out of town. His injuries last season were a blow to the fantasy scene, because he had totaled 80-plus receptions, 1,000-plus receiving yards and double-digit TDs in three of the previous four years. Decker had major operations on both his hip and shoulder last season and there have been concerns that the
start of his 2017 season might be in jeopardy. Fast forward and reports suggest that’s not the case at all, that Decker feels great and should be ready for camp. I’d happily draft Decker as a Jet if they had someone other than Josh McCown throwing him the ball. McCown is guaranteed to get crushed and miss half the season due to someone missing a blocking assignment.
John Brown Arizona Cardinals
Brown had what can only be described as a bizarre 2016 season. (Not “Richard Simmons is missing” level bizarre, but still strange.) Coming off a breakout campaign in 2015, Brown looked ready to take another step forward, but the WR’s third year began with reports of concussion issues, followed by rumors of fatigue. Clearly something wasn’t quite right. Brown went on to play 15 games, but did not resemble the explosive playmaker he was the year prior. We now know he was dealing with complications from his sicklecell trait, as well as a cyst on his spine. Reports out of Cardinals camp suggest Brown is once again earning his nickname, “Smoke.” A wait-and-see approach is probably the best advice as he tries to bounce-back in 2017. If there is any evidence in the preseason that Brown has returned to form, he should be a high end WR3 you may be able to draft where you’d normally take your WR 4 or 5.
Corey Davis Tennessee Titans
Davis was the first rookie WR drafted in 2017, despite missing the NFL Combine. Davis underwent “minor” ankle surgery and hadn’t fully recovered in time to participate. There are enough injury experts in the fantasy industry for us to lean on when we hear vague or incomplete explanations. ESPN’s Stephanie Bell has pointed out, specifically about Davis, that for a WR, no ankle surgery is “insignificant,” but all indications suggest Davis is on track to be a full participant in camp. Before your risk-averse self moves Davis down the ranks, take a look at his Twitter feed on April 21st. He posted a video of himself running, stopping and accelerating down the field, catching an over-theshoulder TD pass, looking like the WR we are all expecting to help elevate Mariota to the next level. Remember when everyone dropped Odell Beckham Jr. down their rankings board because he started the season with a hamstring issue? Don’t overreact.
Donte Moncreif Indianapolis Colts
What do we know? We know that Player Profiler compares his athletic profile to that of Andre Johnson. We know he will turn just 24 years old in this, his fourth NFL season (which is younger than Josh Doctson). We know he has scored 14 TDs in the last 25 games he’s played. We know that
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aside from T.Y. Hilton, there’s no one on the Colts offense who should see more targets in 2017. (Jack Doyle does, in fact, not rule.) Most importantly, we know 2017 is a contract year for Moncreif. Yes, the talented wideout missed seven games last season, but he didn’t miss a game his first two years in the league. There are no indications that last year’s injuries have followed Moncrief into 2017. A full season of a healthy Andrew Luck could lead to a fantasy breakout, putting Moncreif in WR2 territory.
Corey Coleman Cleveland Browns
Coleman was the first WR drafted in last year’s rookie class and looked as if he belonged with his Week 2, 104-yard, 2-TD performance. The rest of Coleman’s season can only be described as, “because Cleveland.” Coleman missed six games with a
in the second half. Lockett exceeded 60 receiving yards three times in a six-game span, until a broken leg suffered in Week 16 ended his season and momentum. Lockett’s rehab has been ahead of schedule and he is on target for Week 1 of 2017. Secondyear RB C.J. Prosise may cut into some of Lockett’s short-yardage potential and Paul Richardson may do the same with targets down field. That said, Lockett is a special talent and will be entering the ever popular third season for WRs. Keep an eye on his progress in camp, but it’s safe to label him as one of 2017’s WR sleepers.
Stefon Diggs Minnesota Vikings
This is an easy one, so let’s not overcomplicate it. Diggs missed three games last season and would have eclipsed the 1,000-yards-receiving mark had he played a full slate of games.
enough to do that, he’s healthy enough for me to draft him as the TE1. Gronk big. Gronk have fun.
Jordan Reed Washington
There’s good news and then there’s bad news. The good news, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson are gone. That frees up a whopping 214 targets from last season that still have to go somewhere. Jordan Reed owners are hoping a significant amount will end up going his direction in 2017. Reed has a higher catch percentage than both Garcon and Jackson, so a significant increase in targets should result in a large bump (also known as a Lacy) in fantasy production. The bad news, the same concerns we’ve had about Jordan Reed over the last few seasons, still exist. He has a history of concussions. He has never played a full season. And he suffered a significant injury last season (Grade 3 separation of his AC joint). If healthy, finishing with double-digit TDs, 80-plus receptions and finishing as a top 1-3 TE are all very realistic possibilities. But he’s not going to be healthy, we know this. By all means, draft Reed, but if you do, you should be prepared to shower the waiver wire and stream the position for 4-plus games.
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals
Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
ADRIAN PETERSON broken hand, but even in the 10 games he appeared, he topped 40 yards just twice. In late March, ESPN provided us with a possible explanation for Coleman’s disappointing season. He doesn’t like the cold. Apparently, Coleman was so averse to Cleveland’s cold weather that, at one point, he ran off the outdoor practice field to find cover. I have no idea what to make of that. My only suggestion: when Cleveland comes to your stadium, please make plenty of clever “shrinkage” signs for Coleman to see.
Tyler Lockett Seattle Seahawks
One of the league’s most electrifying players with the ball in his hand, Lockett’s first half of last season was a power outage. He eclipsed 40 receiving yards only once in the team’s first eight games. We began to see glimpses of the potential breakout star
After the season, Diggs said he would make sure that what took place in 2016 would not happen in 2017. Diggs is still just 23 years old and is learning how to take care of his body at an NFL level. He enters his third season as a WR2 who has significant upside.
tight end Rob Gronkowski NE Patriots
I’ll make this one short and sweet. When healthy, Gronk is undoubtedly the TE1. Gronkowski underwent a third back surgery in December of 2016. You had to have had serious concerns about his recovery until you turned on the TV and saw him participating in WWE’s Wrestlemania 33. If he’s healthy
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Eifert may be the modern definition of injury prone, missing 26 games in his first four seasons. This season probably won’t result in the number 16 being listed in the games played column, due to his back surgery at the end of 2016. So why should we still be interested in drafting Eifert? Ray Summerlin of Rotoworld explains exactly why in a single Tweet. “Eifert has played 65.6 percent of the Bengals’ games the last 2 seasons. He has still been on the receiving end of 36.7 percent of their passing TDs.” Eifert is averaging close to a TD per game over the last two seasons and while at first glance you may think the additions of Joe Mixon and John Ross take away from Eifert’s potential fantasy value, the reality is they simply make the offense more effective, increasing the number of scoring opportunities as a whole.
Zach Miller Chicago Bears
Miller was on pace for a 75-catch season in 2016 before suffering a Lisfranc injury that prematurely ended his season. Luckily for us, we actually have an example of a tight end attempting to come back from a Lisfranc injury which can help us predict Miller’s effectiveness for 2017. Zach Miller’s doesn’t have a 2014 line on his career stats page. That’s because he suffered the same injury to his other foot and it wiped out his entire season. Miller’s planning to be ready for the start of the upcoming season. I’ll believe it when I see it. Pass.
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2017 POSITION RANKING JD Bolick Andy Goldstein David Gonos Derek Jones Marc Meltzer Matt Wilson
T
he projections and rankings in these sections are the result of a consensus among the writers of the section, each of whom submitted a ranked order for each position. The lists were than averaged to create a final ranking.
Photo: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
The capsules were generally assigned to the writer who seemed most closely attuned to the ranking, though there were exceptions. The stat boxes contain actual stats for the past three years and projected stats for 2017. Team context and role matters a lot, which is why a player’s replacement will usually inherit the starter’s projection. This doesn’t necessarily apply to superstars. Projected kicking points are figured in the NFFC way, which includes bonuses for distance. The actual stats show actual points scored totals for kickers.
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JD BOLICK Has been writing for The Fantasy Football Guide since 2001, specializing in players making the jump from college to the NFL. He has a 100% accuracy rate on projecting prospects aside from all the ones he got wrong. He is also a diehard Panthers fan who would like to remind everyone that the Atlanta Falcons lost a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. ANDY GOLDSTEIN Fantasy football writer and podcaster for more than a decade, I created and co-host RateMyLeague league preview shows with Derek Jones. DAVID GONOS Has been writing about fantasy sports since 2000, including at CBSSports. com, SI.com, MLB.com, NFL.com, FoxSports.com and USA Today. Since he started playing Fantasy Football back in 1989, he has drafted Curt Warner and Kurt Warner, and he has yet to finish in 13th place. Derek Jones Is the Station Manager at Rowan Radio 89.7 WGLS-FM, a college radio station in Glassboro, New Jersey. Jones serves as the radio play-by-play voice for Princeton University Men’s Basketball and Rowan University Football. The Glassboro, NJ resident is an avid fantasy football fan and podcaster.
MARC MELTZER The FFG has featured and relied on his projections, cheat sheets, player comments, and editorial insight since 2002. This year is his 16th as director of football content and lead writer at Mastersball.com, where he has also written about baseball.
Edited by Andy Goldstein
MATT WILSON This suburban Chicago-based freelance journalist has played fantasy football since 1994 and has been a featured Guide contributor for the last 10 years. Calling FantasySharks. com his home for the last 10 years, Matt composes the popular “Traps & Trends” column and the start/sit fantasy advice for NFC South and AFC South players that’s published at MyFantasyLeague.com during the NFL season. He also writes and oversees production of FantasySharks.com’s weekly fantasy matchup game capsules. Matt’s long list of fantasy football writing credits includes KFFL.com, and the award-winning USA Today Sports Fantasy Football preview. Matt holds a degree in journalism from Northern Illinois.
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2017 POSITION R ANKING
QUARTERBACKS T
he NFL has never been more friendly to quarterbacks than it is now. Offenses are more pass oriented than ever, with three of the top fifteen passing yardage totals of all-time occurring last season. Teams are prioritizing running backs and tight ends who can help out the quarterback as receivers. The league is protecting quarterbacks from taking unnecessary hits, aside from Cam Newton anyway. It would be reasonable to assume that this golden age for passers would finally translate to fantasy supremacy, yet the conditions that have increased passing success and efficiency have affected the third tier quarterbacks almost as much as the elite players, leaving the position littered with depth and quality. The top fantasy quarterback last season was just a third better than the twelfth, and the gap was only that wide due to Aaron Rodgers’ historic excellence.
Elite 1
Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers
6’2, 225LBS, b:December 21, 1983
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs GB 1 520 341 4381 38 5 43 269 2 GB 7 572 347 3821 31 8 58 344 1 GB 1 610 401 4428 40 7 67 369 4 GB 1 4380 38 10 390 4
When every quarterback is operating at peak efficiency, nobody does it better than Aaron Rodgers. Brady, Luck, Brees, and Cam Newton are uber-talented but few devastate teams the way the two-time MVP does it. For example, after getting smoked by Tennessee in November, Rodgers put together a run that nearly netted him another MVP award. During his final seven regular season games, he threw 18 touchdown passes without tossing an interception. Overall, Rodgers finished with an NFL-best 40 touchdown passes and tacked on another four rushing scores. His 44 total touchdowns put him atop quarterback fantasy scoring. He remains a “matchup-proof” player. In other words, no matter the obstacle, Rodgers normally finds a way to thrive. That especially holds true when it comes to the fantasy football end of business. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2008, Rodgers has finished either 1 or 2 in standard fantasy scoring for quarterbacks every season except for two - an injury riddled ‘13 season where he
Aaron Rodgers #1
missed seven games and in ‘15 when he lost top receiver Jordy Nelson during the preseason. Besides those two seasons, Rodgers has been a sure bet to wreak havoc on opposing defenses. Besides Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb, Green Bay added former Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett, who caught seven touchdown passes last season. Heck, even “runningback” Ty Montgomery is a wide receiver. If Rodgers and his weapons stay healthy, he will be right near the top of the fantasy charts once more. (DJ)
2
Tom Brady
New England Patriots 6’4, 225LBS, b:August 3, 1977
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs NE 8 582 373 4109 33 9 36 57 0 NE 3 624 402 4770 36 7 34 53 3 NE 13 432 291 3554 28 2 28 64 0 NE 2 4700 37 6 70 2
At age 39, Tom Brady posted the second highest quarterback rating of his professional career despite missing the season’s first four weeks with a suspension and having Rob Gronkowski for only six games after that. The primary culprits were a significant jump in yards gained per pass attempt as well as the best touchdown to interception ratio in NFL history. Those two factors coinciding illustrates that Brady did not avoid turnovers simply by relying on check down passes, but rather through superb decision making and incredible accuracy. On passes that traveled more than ten yards downfield, Brady improved his completion
percentage by just over ten percent. That efficiency masked a dramatic change in New England’s offense, as the team went from twenty-fifth in rushing attempts during 2015 to third last season. While some of that undoubtedly had to do with Brady’s early season suspension, even after his return the Patriots were on pace for their fewest pass attempts per game since 2010. Given Gronkowski’s ongoing health issues and New England’s increased investment in running backs, it appears that the team intends to prolong Brady’s career by continuing that reliance on the rushing attack. Yet while his pass attempts won’t return to their previous levels, the good news is that few quarterbacks have a deeper collection of receiving talent to utilize given that both of the running backs signed in free agency are capable pass catchers and Brandin Cooks adds much needed playmaking ability on the outside. (JDB)
3
Andrew Luck
Indianapolis Colts
6’4, 240LBS, b:September 12, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs IND 2 616 380 4761 40 16 64 273 3 IND 28 293 162 1881 15 12 33 196 0 IND 4 545 346 4240 31 13 64 341 2 Ind 3 4620 33 13 360 3
Serious shoulder injuries for quarterbacks are similar to foot injuries for running backs – possibly career-threatening. Luck had shoulder surgery in January to repair an injury he suffered in Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season. He has missed time in
Photo: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
That leaves several viable approaches to selecting quarterbacks in fantasy football. Spending an early pick on established greats like Rodgers, Brady, and Brees virtually guarantees high level production without needing to a roster a backup. A few rounds later, a high upside play on Luck, Carr, or Winston could end up paying big dividends. Or if you would rather focus on other positions, it is possible to get by at quarterback with two mediocre veterans, playing match-ups each week by choosing the one facing an inferior pass defense. Just be sure not to overlook rushing touchdowns, as they add important value to quarterbacks like Cousins and Dalton. (JDB)
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the past two seasons (if only he had a lucky horseshoe!), but this surgery is expected to clean things up so he can play unimpeded in 2017. Even when he was inhibited in 2016, Luck threw for multiple touchdowns in eight of his final nine games. With so many aging star QBs out there, Luck is one of the few young ones with consistency on his side, with four top-10 seasons in his first five years in the league. One of the most interesting stats from last season is that Andrew had bad luck when it came to his teammates’ penalties. No quarterback came within 18% of the passing yards Luck lost (310) to offensive penalties in 2016. The next highest was Eagles’ rookie QB Carson Wentz (253). Considering the Colts were one of the least offensively penalized teams last year (3.4 per game), that means the penalties they did get were in big chunks, so Luck’s luck should return in 2017. Taking it slow through the offseason is probably a good thing for the six-year veteran, and a fresh Luck with a newly honed cannon should be worth an early round pick as one of the top-three Fantasy QBs in 2017. (DG)
4
Drew Brees
New Orleans Saints
6’0, 209LBS, b:January 15, 1979 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs NO 6 659 456 4952 33 17 27 68 1 NO 6 627 428 4870 32 11 24 14 1 NO 3 673 471 5208 37 15 23 20 2 NO 4 5020 32 15 20 1
Brees finished 2016 with over 5,000 yards and nearly 40 touchdowns. In other words, Brees did his normal thing for the millionth year in a row. Ok, maybe it’s *only* been 13 straight top 10 finishes, but it feels like even longer than that. The cast of characters the Saints surround their quarterback with has, of course, changed quite a bit over the years. And that might be a minor cause of concern again this season as Brandin Cooks was traded to the Patriots. Cooks accounted for nearly 1,200 yards last year to go along with eight scores. That production will be missed, but there are some candidates to replace it. New Orleans drafted Alvin Kamara out of Tennessee in the third round. He probably won’t see many carries with two established backs in front of him, but he could play a role in the passing game as Saints general manager Micky Loomis went out of his way to describe Kamara as Reggie Bush-like. Third year wide out Willie Snead should see a bump on his numbers and second year Michael Thomas had an historic rookie season to build on this year. The one constant, however, is Brees, who wins with accuracy, smarts, and quick decision making. As long as NFL talent is around him, he’ll find a way to post top 5 numbers. (AG)
5
Matt Ryan
Atlanta Falcons
6’4, 217LBS, b:May 17, 1985 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs ATL 7 628 415 4694 28 14 29 145 0 ATL 19 614 407 4591 21 16 37 63 0 ATL 2 534 373 4944 38 7 35 117 0 Atl 5 4660 32 14 90 1
top 100 players in many leagues following a very disappointing 2015, Ryan rebounded in spades to finish a career-high third in the fantasy quarterback rankings last season. He set half a dozen Falcons franchise records, which included new single-season marks in passing yards and touchdown tosses while powering the league’s highest-scoring offense. All of Ryan’s top playmakers – Julio Jones, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman – are returning. Some statistical regression from Ryan is likely and shouldn’t surprise anyone, since MVP winners very rarely duplicate what is almost always career-best production. But there’s an elephant in the room: the exit of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and the hiring of Steve Sarkisian. A crony of Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn, Sarkisian has never called plays in the NFL. He’s expected to use Shanahan’s playbook, but Sarkisian will add his personal wrinkles to game plans. Is this truly gloom and doom for Ryan? It shouldn’t be because of Ryan’s talent and the best group of playmakers that he has ever had. Ryan set a new league record by tossing touchdown passes to 13 different receivers, which shows how much the pocket passer has elevated his game. Some have forgotten that Ryan has finished as a top-10 fantasy passer in six of the last seven years, so he’s clearly a safe choice. Still in his prime at 32 with no missed regular-season games since 2009, Ryan won’t be as much of a fantasy scoring force of nature again, but he’s still a rock-solid starter. (MW)
6
Russell Wilson
Seattle Seahawks
5’11, 206LBS, b:November 29, 1988
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs SEA 3 452 285 3475 20 7 118 849 6 SEA 2 483 329 4024 34 8 103 553 1 SEA 14 546 353 4219 21 11 72 259 1 Sea 6 4340 27 12 300 1
2016 had to be considered a “down” year for Russell Wilson, after a 2015 season where he threw 34 touchdown passes and ranked 4th in fantasy quarterback scoring. Wilson had career-highs in 2016 in completions, attempts, and pass yards. But the increased attempts did not translate to increased touchdown passes. Wilson’s rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, historically a big part of his game, took a big hit in 2016. The rushing total dropped by almost 300 yards. Wilson had five games in 2016 without a touchdown pass, including a three game stretch early in the season. That is an absolute killer for a fantasy team. Wilson has a solid surrounding cast including tight end Jimmy Graham who was healthy enough to play in all 16 games. The Seahawks emphasize a strong running game (Eddie Lacy tries to replace Marshawn Lynch) and a strong defense. So the question facing fantasy players on draft day, can Wilson throw for 34 touchdown passes as he did in 2015, or was that a complete anomaly considering his other four seasons were between 20-26? And if not, will the rushing stats come back to make up for it? (MM)
Why are some fantasy owners nervous about the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year? Drafted outside the
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Upper Echelon 7
Cam Newton
Carolina Panthers
6’5, 245LBS, b:May 11, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs CAR 17 448 262 3127 18 12 103 539 5 CAR 1 496 296 3837 35 10 132 636 10 CAR 18 510 270 3509 19 14 90 359 5 Car 7 3960 21 15 440 6
Super Bowl hangovers are nothing new, yet while some regression was to be expected following Cam Newton’s MVP campaign in 2015, few would have expected the worst season of his six year career. In retrospect the warning signs were evident, as no quarterback had taken nearly as many hits during that span and their cumulative toll had begun to turn this erstwhile Superman into Clark Kent. Injuries along an already thin offensive line also undermined the running game, producing a nearly twenty-five percent increase in third and long situations. As a result, Cam registered the second highest passing attempts of his career with his second lowest completions total. Although the Panthers did add two speedy running backs in the draft who are both capable receivers, that merely offsets the loss of Ted Ginn in free agency, and the team has historically been one of the worst in the league at utilizing running backs in the passing game under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. The reality is that Newton’s days of leading quarterbacks in rushing yards and touchdowns are probably over, and it remains to be seen if he can improve his passing ability sufficiently to compensate. (JDB)
8
Derek Carr
Oakland Raiders
6’3, 214LBS, b:March 28, 1991 RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2014 OAK 2015 OAK 2016 OAK
20 15 9
599 348 3270 21 573 350 3987 32 560 357 3937 28
12 13 6
2017 Oak
8
4100 31
10
29 33 39
92 138 70
0 0 0
50
1
Carr became maybe the first NFL draftee hurt by his last name. Memories of David Carr’s NFL struggles seemed to hamper the younger brother’s status. That allowed the Raiders to grab Carr in the second round of the 2014 draft. That is looking more and more like a steal after back to back 3,900 yard passing seasons. Carr has the benefit of a good offensive line and exciting talent to work with. Amari Cooper has begun his NFL career with back to back 1,000 yard seasons. The underappreciated Michael Crabtree has posted 17 touchdowns over the last two years. The offseason has been one of rehab and recovery for Carr, whose 2016 was ended a bit prematurely due to a broken fibula suffered in Week 16. The big question now is whether Carr has another gear. The Raiders also added Marshawn Lynch, which has to mean a bigger focus on the running game. This ranking says Carr makes modest gains on last year’s numbers. But another jump would put him among the position’s elite. (AG)
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QB
POSITION RANKING
Tom Brady #2
Jameis Winston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6’4, 231lbs , b:January 6, 1994
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2015 TB 13 535 312 4042 22 15 53 210 6 2016 TB 10 567 345 4090 28 18 53 165 1 2017 TB 9 4140 29 18 150 1
Fantasy owners have lofty expectations for Winston, as he enters his third NFL season. While Dirk Koetter is in his second year as the Bucs’ head coach, it’s actually his third year as Winston’s play caller, which is consistency many highly drafted young quarterbacks miss out on. A more experienced Winston should make fewer mistakes on the field (his 3.20% interception rate was second-highest among all QBs with at least 410 pass attempts last year). Rookie O.J. Howard joins Cameron Brate to likely form one of the best TE duos in the league, and Mike Evans is already a superstar that comes down with most 50/50 balls thrown his way. But it’s the addition of speedy DeSean Jackson that should create more space for Winston’s passing game. In 2016, 66.1% of Winston’s passing yards were “air yards,” which is a calculation that subtracts a receiver’s yards after the catch from a QB’s passing yards. There’s no question his receivers will post better YAC in 2017, which means a big boost in yardage for Winston. Only Houston had fewer yards after the catch per reception than the Bucs. Winston enters 2017 as a top-10 fantasy quarterback with an even higher ceiling. (DG)
MATT WILSON’S CHALLENGE:
Favorable - “Magical” third-year breakouts aren’t limited to just wideouts. With his numbers trending upward, Winston is primed to come up big in 2017. The Tampa Bay triggerman finished nearly at this ranking during his first two seasons with only Mike Evans, Cameron Brate and Charles Sims as productive targets. The Buccaneers want to throw even more, and they’ve
added veteran deep-threat DeSean Jackson, impressive pro-ready rookie O.J. Howard and rookie Chris Goodwin. Winston has topped the 4,000-yard mark twice despite connecting on barely 60 percent of his throws. With a deeper receiver corps, Winston’s completion percentage, overall play and fantasy production will improve across the board.
10
Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh Steelers 6’5, 240LBS, b:March 2, 1982
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team PIT PIT PIT Pit
Rank 5 20 15 10
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 608 408 4952 32 9 33 27 0 469 319 3938 21 16 15 29 0 509 328 3819 29 13 16 14 1 4100 29 11 20 0
Because of the Steelers reliance on a strong running game, strong defense, and a ball-control offense, Ben Roethlisberger will go down in history as a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback. Big Ben has led the Steelers to the Super Bowl three times (2010, 2008 and 2005) in his 13 NFL seasons, but has only been a top-ten fantasy quarterback five times (2016, 2014, 2013, 2009 and 2007). Notice that there is a stark correlation between Roethlisberger not being ranked among the top-ten fantasy quarterbacks and the Steelers making it to the Super Bowl. The Steelers relying on Roethlisberger putting up big numbers over an extended period of time is just flat out not their formula for winning. Health issues always have to be considered for Roethlisberger as he has only played a full 16 game season three times. The return of Martavis Bryant along with draft choice JuJu Smith-Schuster gives Roethlisberger a great set of receiving options. But the challenge is keeping Big Ben in the game. (MM)
11
Philip Rivers
Los Angeles Chargers 6’5, 228LBS, b:December 8, 1981
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team SD SD SD LAC
Rank 12 11 6 11
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 570 379 4286 31 18 37 102 0 661 437 4792 29 13 17 28 0 578 349 4386 33 21 14 35 0 4360 31 18 40 0
For a time last year, it appeared Rivers and the Artists Formerly Known As The San Diego Chargers would be a three-ring, high-flying offense. Rivers threw for over 300 yards four times in a five-game stretch and appeared poised to finish as a top 10 fantasy football signalcaller. However, injuries eventually caught up to the Chargers. Standout wide receiver Keenan Allen was lost for the season on Opening Day and then, late in the season running back Melvin Gordon missed the final three games due to a leg injury. While Rivers threw at least two touchdown passes per game in his final nine outings, his yardage totals proved to be less than stellar down the stretch. He toppled the 300-yard barrier just once in his last six games. Entering 2017, Rivers has some challenges. The Chargers receivers will need a healthy Allen to help get Rivers back on track. If all goes well, Rivers could catapult himself back into the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks but he will need a lot more help from his supporting cast. (DJ)
12
Kirk Cousins
Washington
6’3, 202 lbs , b:August 19, 1988
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs WAS 36 204 126 1710 10 9 7 20 0 WAS 8 543 379 4166 29 11 26 48 5 WAS 5 606 406 4917 25 12 34 96 4 Was 12 4300 26 14 90 2
Building on a nice 2015 breakout campaign, Cousins closed out his second full season as the starter in
Photo: REUTERS/Robert Seale
9
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Washington’s pass-heavy attack as the fifth-rated fantasy triggerman thanks to racking up career highs in attempts, completions and passing yards. The attempts ranked sixth in the NFL, and only two quarterbacks threw for more yards. Why is a pocket passer (he’s also a sneaky running threat near the end zone) who came within 83 yards of throwing for the big 5,000 ranked down here? The offensive coordinator switch is a non-issue. Head coach Jay Gruden called the plays for Cousins in 2015 and is expected to do so again. What about the receiver corps downgrades? Ding! Ding! Ding! Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Vernon Davis and Chris Thompson are all returning, but two 1,000-yard receivers from a year ago – DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon – departed in free agency. A combined 135 catches, 2,046 receiving yards and seven touchdown grabs walked out the door. Washington has replaced Jackson with Terrelle Pryor, a converted college quarterback who was out of the NFL in 2014. Pryor amassed his first career 1,000-yard season as the last man standing with the Cleveland Browns last season. Garcon’s replacement, talented-but-unproven Josh Doctson, a 2016 first-round selection, was limited to just two games due to an Achilles’ tendon issue, so he’s essentially still a rookie. Factor in Washington’s matchups against tough AFC West and NFC West defenses and Cousins’ production is likely for a regression. He’s safer to draft as a high-end fantasy QB2. (MW)
JD BOLICK’S CHALLENGE:
Unfavorable - It’s difficult to argue with the numbers Kirk Cousins has produced over the last two seasons, but one of the biggest factors in his success was the downfield threat posed by DeSean Jackson. Not only did he contribute in the form of catches and touchdowns, but he forced defenses to extend their coverage, which opened up windows underneath. Although Washington has possession targets capable of replacing Pierre Garçon, the absence of a reliable deep receiver is likely to have an adverse effect on Cousins’ statistics. Kirk will probably experience a decrease in pass attempts as well following last season’s career high, as the addition of Samaje Perine as a between the tackles rusher suggests an intent to become somewhat more balanced on offense. With so much turnover on offense, it is better to assume regression than to pay for performance that may not be sustained.
Solid 13
Marcus Mariota
Tennessee Titans
6’4, 222lbs , b:October 30, 1993
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2015 TEN 22 370 230 2818 19 10 34 252 2 2016 TEN 11 451 276 3426 26 9 60 349 2 2017 Ten 13 3580 27 13 320 2
A broken fibula in Week 16 prematurely ended Mariota’s second season, but by all accounts, it was an otherwise successful campaign of growth. Tennessee went with the tried and true strategy of not surrounding their quarterback with much in the way of receiving talent, but Mariota still managed to toss for 3,400 yards and 26 scores, a touchdown figure good enough for top 10 in the league. Coach
Mike Mularkey installed a run-heavy offense behind DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. They took pressure off of Mariota but also took away a ton of yards and touchdowns. If Tennessee loosens the reigns on Mariota even a bit, it could have a nice impact on Mariota’s fantasy stakes. Also for the ‘nice’ column; number five overall pick, wide out Corey Davis, third round wide out Taywan Taylor, and third round tight end Jonnu Smith. With a newly stocked arsenal, Mariota’s fantasy ranking is headed in the right direction. (AG)
14
Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions
6’3, 236lbs , b:May 7, 1988 Year 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs DET 15 592 398 4262 32 13 44 159 1 DET 8 594 388 4327 24 10 37 207 2 Det 15 4000 23 14 180 2
How did Stafford’s first season without the services of the retired Calvin Johnson go? Not too bad. Although Stafford faded during the last month due to playing with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand, most of the golden-armed triggerman’s 2016 passing numbers were on par with his statistics from previous years. Stafford isn’t getting much preseason respect despite finishing as the seventh-best fantasy quarterback, which was his fifth top-10 finish in the last six years. Most of Stafford’s playmakers – Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah – are back. There’s a good chance that Anquan Boldin, who quietly led the Lions with eight scoring grabs, will re-sign, but rookie third-rounder Kenny Golladay is a project. With “Megatron” gone, the 29-year-old Stafford, an often reckless gunslinger during his younger days, is now more patient and willing to spray the ball to all his targets. Last season Detroit had five players amass 50-plus catches for the first time ever. Stafford isn’t a sexy pick, but this draft day bargain has weekly fantasy starter upside. (MW)
15
Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys
6’2, 226lb, b:July 29, 1993
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 DAL 7 459 311 3667 23 4 57 282 6 2017 Dal 14 3540 21 10 250 5
There really wasn’t a lot expected from the rookie QB drafted in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft, as he was a couple spots down the depth chart and had a history of inaccuracy in college. Yet, from an NFL perspective, Prescott became the more intriguing Cowboys rookie, even though fantasy owners were busy screaming, “Zeke!” There were just a handful of quarterbacks with more fantasy points than Prescott last season, but it’s difficult to not expect some regression in Year 2. Defenses will be scheming against him more in 2017, but Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant and the best offensive line in the NFL will have his back. Ending up with Dak isn’t a bad thing at all as he’s a prime target for fantasy owners who wait to fill the quarterback position later in drafts. The depth at fantasy quarterback is a better explanation of this ranking than Prescott’s prognosis. (DG)
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16
Tyrod Taylor
Buffalo Bills
6’1, 215lbs , b:August 3, 1989
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team BUF BUF Buf
RUSHING PASSING Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 14 380 242 3035 20 6 104 568 4 18 436 269 3023 17 6 95 580 6 16 3120 19 8 500 5
Tyrod Taylor followed up his promising first season as a starter by posting nearly identical totals in both yardage and touchdowns, proving that he represents a quality option for both the Bills as well as fantasy teams. Although his passing attempts increased significantly last season, attempting fewer deep passes meant fewer yards per completion, a situation likely caused by the prolonged absence of Sammy Watkins. Taylor remaining in Buffalo following an uncertain off-season is good news for his value, as lining up behind one of the more physical offensive lines in the NFL suits Taylor’s strengths, both as a rusher himself and as a play action passer. While the team did lose Robert Woods in free agency, second round pick Zay Jones arguably represents an upgrade at the wide receiver position. (JDB)
17
Andy Dalton
Cincinnati Bengals
6’2, 216LBS, b:October 29, 1987
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CIN CIN CIN Cin
Rank 18 18 16 17
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 481 309 3398 19 17 60 169 4 386 255 3250 25 7 57 142 3 563 364 4206 18 8 46 184 4 4240 18 10 160 1
Throwing to AJ Green is pretty great for Dalton. That has been well established. And when Tyler Eifert is healthy, he’s a big red zone target who has pulled in 18 scores in his last 21 games. Tyler Boyd, a 2016 rookie, managed 600 yards. And the Bengals decided all of that wasn’t quite enough. They spent a top 10 pick on John Ross, an absolute burner who would complement Green and Boyd beautifully if healthy. Ross has a lengthy injury history which, of course, is a worry. But, putting on the orange-colored glasses for a second, this offense has the feel of one ready to explode a la the Falcons from last year. Dalton has put together stretches of top 10 quarterback play, but injuries or inconsistency have haunted him. That risk puts his value down here in the teens, but there’s undeniable upside should the offense click and stay on the field. (AG)
18
Eli Manning
New York Giants
6’4, 218LBS, b:January 3, 1981 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team NYG NYG NYG NYG
Rank 10 10 20 18
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 601 379 4410 30 14 12 31 1 618 387 4436 35 14 20 61 0 598 377 4027 26 16 21 -9 0 3850 27 17 10 0
I want to live in a world where I can freely trust Eli Manning as a fantasy quarterback because he has one of the NFL’s premier weapons at his disposal Odell Beckham Jr. Unfortunately, the trail of trust for Eli is littered with turnovers, dropped passes, and a lackluster running game. After a productive
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QB
POSITION RANKING
2015, Manning’s yards and touchdown passes dipped in 2016. As Manning’s numbers slipped down the stretch, so did New York’s potentially potent offense. Over his last six games including the playoffs last season, New York’s offense failed to score 20 points. Despite those issues, Manning has plenty still going for him heading into 2017. Of course, Beckham’s wondrous talents return along with second-year with promising wideout Sterling Shepard and the addition of veteran Brandon Marshall could make the Giants into a major threat, which would be quite ideal for Manning owners. Now, all Eli has to do is keep those receivers off of boats in Miami... (DJ)
19
Blake Bortles
Jacksonville Jaguars 6’5, 245LBS, December 16, 1991
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs JAX 24 475 280 2908 11 17 56 419 0 JAX 4 606 355 4428 35 18 52 310 2 JAX 12 625 368 3905 23 16 58 359 3
2017 Jax
19
3760 21
16
320
2
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Blake Bortles both failed miserably in their attempt to take their games to the next level in 2016. While it is easy to fire the coach, it is much harder to fire your franchise quarterback. Bortles did set career highs in completions and attempts in 2016, but his passing yardage dropped by 500 yards, touchdowns dropped by 12 and interceptions remained high. The new coaching staff is hoping that less is better for Bortles, with a heavy emphasis on the running game (using the number four overall draft choice on Leonard Fournette) and defense. Bortles has the talent to flourish in an environment where the team is not solely reliant on him to make plays and there is enough negative talk about Bortles to knock him down in fantasy drafts. (MM)
20
Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals
6’5, 235LBS, b:December 27, 1979 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team ARI ARI ARI ARI
Rank 31 5 17 20
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 224 141 1626 11 3 8 25 0 537 342 4671 35 11 25 24 1 597 364 4233 26 14 14 38 0 4000 24 15 40 0
It is almost an afterthought that Palmer actually finished with over 4,000 yards last year. The big drop in touchdowns from 35 in 2015 to 26 last year squashed Palmer’s fantasy value, but at least the yardage stayed in the green. Palmer, at 38, is no spring chicken and it’s entirely likely this will be his last year as a starter, but he’s still a worthy fantasy backup. Larry Fitzgerald is still useful and David Johnson is an elite receiver, regardless of his “runningback” designation on the depth chart. Arizona will also hope to get something from third round wide out Chad Williams. A repeat of 2015 for Palmer is a bridge too far, but as a spot starter or bye-week fill in, he makes sense. (AG)
Andrew Luck #3
21
Carson Wentz
Philadelphia Eagles
6’5, 235lbs , b:November 30, 1992
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 PHI 24 607 379 3782 16 14 46 150 2 2017 Phi 21 3900 18 14 150 2
Carson Wentz, the number two overall draft choice in 2016, was thrown right onto the field to “game manage” a good, competitive team. Wentz was 5th in the NFL in passing attempts (607) but was only 18th in passing yards (3,782). To bolster the downfield passing game, the Eagles added both Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to go with what was already a young up-and-coming group of receivers. The signing of rushing touchdown machine LeGarrette Blount might hurt Wentz’ touchdown total, but it didn’t really have too much of a negative effect on Tom Brady. (MM)
22
Ryan Tannehill
Miami Dolphins
6’4, 220lbs , b:July 27, 1988
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIA MIA MIA Mia
Rank 9 17 26 22
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 590 392 4045 27 12 56 311 1 586 363 4208 24 12 32 141 1 389 261 2995 19 12 39 164 1 3320 22 12 130 1
Will this finally be the year where Tannehill puts it together? While his 2016 campaign was derailed thanks to a torn ACL, it was an uneven year at best beforehand. Tannehill finished just 27th in standard fantasy scoring for quarterbacks. Yet, his fortunes could change in 2017. Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills could be a formidable wide receiver trio. Miami traded for Jacksonville tight end Julius Thomas, who enjoyed success while in Denver with then-Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Of course, Gase leads the charge in Miami now.
Fresh off a playoff season, Miami is poised to make a leap into the upper echelon of NFL offenses. The question is can Tannehill rise to the occasion to join them? His biggest red flag will be last season’s ACL injury and how quickly he can get into form. Once he does, Tannehill could be in store for that long-awaited breakout season. (DJ)
Keep An Eye On 23
Joe Flacco
Baltimore Ravens
6’6, 245lbs , b:January 16, 1985 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team BAL BAL BAL Bal
Rank 13 26 21 23
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 554 344 3986 27 12 39 70 2 413 266 2791 14 12 13 23 3 672 436 4317 20 15 21 58 2 3720 18 15 60 1
Flacco and Matt Ryan came into the league together, but Ryan had his best season in 2016, while Flacco struggled with one of his worst. Remember that the 6-foot-6 Flacco was coming back from a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee from the end of the previous season, and he experienced a mid-season change at offensive coordinator in 2016. The Ravens threw the ball more than any other team in 2016 (42.4 attempts per game), though, and Marty “Air Marty” Mornhinweg is back as offensive coordinator. (DG)
24
Sam Bradford
Minnesota Vikings
6’4, 224lbs , b:November 8, 1987
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team PHI MIN Min
RUSHING PASSING Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 24 532 346 3725 19 14 26 39 0 22 552 395 3877 20 5 20 53 0 24 3460 16 7 60 0
Sam Bradford setting the NFL record for completion percentage in a season failed to generate
Photo: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
Year 2014 2015 2016
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much notice, as he accomplished that feat by relentlessly focusing on short passes, with over three quarters of his pass attempts traveling ten yards or less. The Vikings made a considerable investment in their offensive line this offseason, and Bradford will have to trust them long enough to let deeper routes develop if he is ever going to accrue significant fantasy value. (JDB)
25
Alex Smith
K ansas City Chiefs 6’4, 217lbs , b:May 7, 1984
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2014 2015 2016 2017
KC KC KC KC
19 16 23 25
464 303 3265 18 470 307 3486 20 489 328 3502 15 3080 15
6 7 8 11
49 84 48
254 498 134 150
1 2 5 3
Kansas City’s designated franchise quarterback of the future, rookie first-round selection Patrick Mahomes, is looking over Smith’s shoulder, but the vet’s starting gig should remain safe as long as the Chiefs stay in playoff contention. Last season the risk-averse-as-usual Smith threw for a career high in passing yards but tossed his lowest number of touchdown passes in a Kansas City uniform, despite having the services of the elite Travis Kelce, rising-star Tyreek Hill and an admittedly banged-up Jeremy Maclin. While Smith will rebound in the scoring department, keep in mind that he has never passed for more than 23 scores in a season. The career game manager remains a “break glass in case of emergency” fantasy backup. (MW)
26
Mike Glennon
Chicago Bears
28
Chicago invested plenty into the quarterback position during the offseason including inking Glennon to deal that will give him $16 million guaranteed in 2017. However, Glennon’s stay at the starting quarterback spot may be a one-and-done deal until the Bears get first-round pick Mitchell Trubisky ready to takeover. While Trubisky is the future of the Bears, their present likely lies with Glennon. Lacking a collection of weapons, Glennon’s ability to boost fantasy lineups will be limited. (DJ)
27
Jared Goff
Los Angeles Rams
6’4, 215lbs , November 14, 1994 RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 LAR 36 205 112 1089 5 7 8 16 1 2017 LAR 27 2820 18 15 30 0
Fantasy owners didn’t expect a lot from Goff in 2016, and the No. 1 overall draft pick completely fulfilled expectations. With a high interception rate (3.40%), a poor offensive line and a below-average receiving corps, Goff barely saw any fantasy football starting lineups. In 2017, improvement is likely, but he’s more of a bench player even in two-QB fantasy leagues. New Rams head coach Sean McVay, the former Redskins offensive coordinator, makes Goff’s future brighter, however. (DG)
The most decorated college quarterback in this draft class joining a roster seemingly set at every other position looks like a match made in heaven, yet DeShaun Watson will be asked to master a vastly more complicated offense in Houston than he experienced at Clemson, and it isn’t clear if Bill O’Brien will simplify his scheme to ease the transition. Watson’s collegiate success combined with the Texans’ receiving weapons create the potential to fly up these rankings if that happens. (JDB)
One Sentence 29
Trevor Siemian Denver Broncos
6’3, 215lbs, b:December 26, 1991 RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 DEN 22 486 289 3401 18 10 28 57 0 2017 Den 29 2340 14 16 60 0
If he holds off Paxton Lynch again and Demaryius Thomas is healthy, Siemian has some upside as a streaming option. (AG)
30
Brian Hoyer
San Francisco 49ers
6’3, 215lb, b:October 13, 1985 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CLE HOU CHI SF
Rank 25 25 31 30
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 438 242 3326 12 13 24 39 0 369 224 2606 19 7 15 44 0 200 134 1445 6 0 7 -2 0 1620 14 11 50 1
The rebuilding 49ers’ stop-gap starter is good enough to generate solid production as a matchup play off the waiver wire, but look for San Francisco to give rookie third-rounder C.J. Beathard some meaningful late-season action under center. (MW)
31
Paxton Lynch Denver Broncos
6’7, 244lbs, b:February 12, 1994
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2017 Hou 28 2260 15 13 220 1
Cody Kessler
Cleveland Browns
6’1, 224lbs, b:May 11, 1993
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 CLE 32 195 128 1380 6 2 11 18 0 2017 Cle 31 1480 10 5 49 0
Cody Kessler is expected to open the season as the Cleveland Browns starting quarterback. Second round draft choice DeShone Kizer, Brock Osweiler, and Kevin Hogan are all in the mix. Kessler has a chance to succeed in a short passing scheme. (MM)
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32
Houston Texans
6’2, 221lbs, b:September 14, 1995
6’7, 225lbs, b:December 12, 1989
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 TB 11 10 75 1 0 2017 Chi 26 2960 17 13 90 1
Deshaun Watson
RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2016 DEN 83 49 497 2 1 11 25 0 2017 Den 32 1560 8 7 60 0
Paxton Lynch had been described here and elsewhere as a long-term project not yet ready to be a regular starter, and his rookie season did nothing to dissuade anyone of that evaluation. (JDB)
33
Josh McCown New York Jets
6’4, 212lbs, b:July 4, 1979 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team TB CLE CLE NYJ
RUSHING PASSING Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 28 327 184 2206 11 14 25 127 3 27 292 186 2109 12 4 20 98 1 165 90 1100 6 6 7 21 0 33 1260 10 12 100 1
Josh McCown finds himself on his seventh NFL team entering his 13th season in the NFL. McCown has found success in isolated games in his career, with four 300+ yard games and one 400+ yard game in the past two seasons. (MM)
34
Tom Savage Houston Texans
6’4, 228lb, b:April 26, 1990 Year 2014 2016 2017
RUSHING PASSING Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs HOU 67 19 10 127 0 1 6 -6 0 HOU 73 46 461 0 0 6 12 0 Hou 34 1460 9 11 60 0
Rumblings out of Houston state the Texans may take their time with Deshaun Watson, which should open the door for Savage to be the opening day starter. (DJ)
35
Mitchell Trubisky Chicago Bears
6’2, 222lbs, b:August 20, 1994 RUSHING PASSING Year Team Rank ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 2017 Chi 35 1200 9 9 80 0
The top offensive rookie in the 2017 NFL Draft shouldn’t have much of a fantasy impact this season, considering the talent around him and the fact he has just 13 starts above the high school level. (DG)
36
Ryan Fitzpatrick Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6’2, 221lb, b:November 24, 1982 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team HOU NYJ NYJ TB
Rank 21 12 29 36
RUSHING PASSING ATTs Comp YDs TDs INTs ATTs YDs TDs 312 197 2483 17 8 50 184 2 562 335 3905 31 15 60 270 2 403 228 2710 12 17 33 130 0 1100 8 12 150 1
Coming off a disastrous 2016 and entering his age-35 season on the decline, there’s no reason whatsoever to get excited about career journeyman Fitzpatrick on the off chance that he lands a starting gig or a fill-in starter job. (MW)
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2017 POSITION R ANKING
running backs David Johnson #1
W
hy is the spotlight shining more brightly on the running back position now than in previous years? Even though the debate over selecting stud runners or stud wide receivers at the top of drafts will continue to rage like an inferno in the fantasy universe, the running back position is making a massive comeback. Last season, drafting with the “Zero RB” strategy was the cool thing to do, but many fantasy owners who drafted runners, like David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray or Jordan Howard, some using early picks, either hoisted league championship trophies or at least tasted the playoffs. Some new studs will emerge from the most intriguing rookie running back class in years, which includes Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Kareem Hunt and Jamaal Williams. The influx of talented young runners, however, has made some timeshare backfields even murkier. Everybody’s preseason rankings will change often as always because of injuries, promotions, demotions, trades, arrests, ominous quotes from head coaches or some guy busting off a 50-yard touchdown jaunt against another team’s third-string defense in a meaningless exhibition contest. Here’s the Guide’s painstaking prediction of how a more-uncertain-than-usual running back position will look when the preseason dust has settled. The rankings are based on a scoring system that uses six points for each rushing/receiving touchdown, one point per 10 yards rushing/receiving and half a point per reception. (MW)
1
David Johnson
Arizona Cardinals
6’1, 224lbs , b:December 16, 1991
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATTs ARI 7 125 ARI 1 293 Ari 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 581 8 1239 16 1160 13
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 36 457 4 80 879 4 66 690 5
Johnson over Ezekiel Elliott? Or Elliott over Johnson? While Elliott is a fantastic option, the Guide gives the clear edge to Johnson as the top fantasy running back and the best overall player on all 2017 fantasy draft boards because of his high-volume usage as a receiver. Last season, Johnson’s first as a full-time starter with a big-guy workload, the super-athletic do-it-all weapon topped all NFL runners in combo touches, total yards, and touchdowns to finish as the top fantasy running back in all scoring formats. Johnson’s out-of-thisworld receiving production – he led all backs in catches and receiving yards – propelled his fantasy scoring into the stratosphere. Johnson, who turns just 26 in December, looks primed for a repeat performance in a productive offense that’s anchored
2
Ezekiel Elliott
Dallas Cowboys
6’0, 225lbs , b:July 22, 1995
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs TDs 2016 DAL 2 322 1631 15 2017 Dal 2 1570 14
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 32 363 1 30 330 1
By the time 2016 fantasy draft season rolled around, the hype on Elliott was pushing him up into the end of the first round in most drafts. Those who gambled on the rookie were rewarded handsomely. He certainly had the resume coming out of Ohio State playing against some pretty strong defenses.
In his rookie NFL season, Elliott carried the ball at least 15 times in all 14 meaningful games he played. All 322 of those carries were great in 2016, but consider that Elliott now has almost 900 carries in his past three seasons. He is expected to be a top-three pick in most fantasy drafts in 2017 (with David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell). There are several questions to ponder when considering Elliott on draft day, including an NFL investigation into domestic violence he was accused of in July 2016. The NFL has reportedly left the case open, but it’s unclear if that’s just for the visuals in this post-Ray Rice world. Along with the usual football questions about durability and his workload, the seemingly small chance of the off-field issue resulting in a suspension can’t be completely ignored. (MM)
3
Le’Veon Bell
Pittsburgh Steelers 6’1, 225lbs , b:February 18, 1992
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATTs PIT 2 290 PIT 46 113 PIT 3 261 Pit 3
RUSHING YDs TDs 1361 8 556 3 1268 7 1160 8
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 83 854 3 24 136 0 75 616 2 58 530 3
Interesting fact: Bell has played in Week 1 just once in his four NFL seasons. While he did have
Photo: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Elite
by a vastly improved offensive line. Although he suffered a sprained MCL in the Cardinals’ last game of 2016, Johnson didn’t need surgery and is reportedly set to be a full-go. The still-acceptable Carson Palmer and his top targets, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown, will continue to power a passing attack that’s more than good enough to stretch the field, preventing opposing defenses from stacking the line and giving Johnson the “Todd Gurley treatment.” While Arizona might dial back his touches just a bit – don’t expect 80 catches again if Brown stays healthy – nobody in the team’s unremarkable collection of backup tailbacks is a threat to Johnson’s workload. (MW)
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offseason groin surgery, he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season without issue, that fact is interesting from a fantasy perspective. Since his breakout 2014 season (his only 16-game effort), Bell has had injuries and suspension keep him from being active, yet fantasy owners have kept him as a top-10 player in ADP in both 2015 and 2016. He’s a real “pick tease,” if you will. The suspension could be considered an outlier, but the injuries are concerning, now that he has had multiple foot, knee and groin injuries slow him down. Of course his running style relies more on patience and vision than outright speed. Bell’s just 25 years old, in a great offense with a stellar offensive line, and he’s used in several different facets of the playbook. From Weeks 4-15, when Bell played in 2016, his 75 catches ranked fourth among all positions in the NFL. Another interesting point is that he’s a yardage fiend, and he doesn’t need two touchdowns per game to reward his fantasy owners. He posted over 100 total yards in all but one game last season, with five or more catches in all but three games. Getting a healthy Bell as a first pick is a rare treasure. (DG)
4
Devonta Freeman
Atlanta Falcons
5’8, 209lbs , b:March 15, 1992
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs 2014 ATL 59 65 248 2015 ATL 1 265 1056 2016 ATL 6 227 1079 2017 Atl 4 1100
TDs 1 11 11 9
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 30 225 1 73 578 3 54 462 2 53 460 3
After Devonta Freeman emerged from relative obscurity to become the top fantasy running back of 2015, some noted that his per touch averages were not particularly impressive, and therefore his season totals were boosted by a lack of competition. While his touches did decrease by nearly seventeen percent this past season, Freeman countered his critics by significantly improving what he did with them, and as a result posted nearly identical numbers. What makes Devonta a special running back is that he possesses the rare combination of being a reliable receiver and a trusted short yardage rusher. Although Tevin Coleman is a much bigger back, Freeman’s vision for finding and and exploiting holes meant that Atlanta relied far more heavily on him in the red zone, and only Theo Riddick produced more catches among running backs over the last two seasons than Freeman. That versatility makes him essential to the Falcons’ offense, allowing the team to use run-pass options while also increasing the effectiveness of play action elements. Kyle Shanahan’s departure is somewhat of a concern, as a new offensive scheme might not utilize Freeman in quite the same ways or with such a high frequency, but Steve Sarkisian’s collegiate offenses have been running back friendly. As long as Freeman retains his goal line role, he will remain one of the top fantasy running backs. (JDB)
5
Melvin Gordon San Diego Chargers
6’1, 215lbs , b:April 13, 1993 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATTs SD 53 184 SD 7 254 SD 5
RUSHING YDs TDs 641 0 997 10 1120 11
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 33 192 0 41 419 2 43 420 2
After accomplishing the extraordinary feat of touching the
football 217 times without a touchdown in 2015, Gordon made it to the endzone 12 times in 2016, good enough for a top 10 finish. So it goes in fantasy football! Gordon’s peripheral numbers also improved. His yards-per-carry made a modest jump to nearly 4.0. Injuries limited the Charger back to only 13 games and 11 starts, but his 76 rushing yards per game placed him 8th in the league. In other words, there’s reason to believe Gordon is trending in exactly the direction fantasy owners like. Living up to this ranking will require either a boost in efficiency or just staying healthy for a full slate of games. San Diego is loaded with skill position talent. Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Keenan Allen are the big names, but Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams also performed well last season. The Chargers went ahead and added rookie wide out Mike Williams in the first round of this year’s draft. That’s all nice, but it might be the Chargers second and third round offensive line picks that do the trick for Gordon. Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney should solidify what was easily one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season. Even small gains on that front would pave extra room for Gordon, who has shown a proclivity to produce additional yards after contact. Gordon will cost a late first or early second round pick depending on league size, so be sure to feel out how those rookie linemen are looking before making the dive. (AG)
to a lackluster 2015 campaign. Now, as for the age matter. McCoy turns 29 in July, which can be towards the tail end of a running back’s effectiveness. He scored 14 touchdowns last season and rushed for over 1,200 yards. Yet, any time a running back draws closer to 30, it should be a concern. If healthy, McCoy could be a fantasy dynamo once again. However, he has played in all 16 games just three times in eight seasons. When draft day arrives and McCoy lands on your roster, make sure to have a contingency plan. It’s far better to be ahead of the curve on older running backs. Those mistakes are how folks lose fantasy championships. (DJ)
MARC MELTZER’S CHALLENGE:
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unfavorable - I don’t dislike Gordon by any means as I do have him ranked as the 10th best running back entering 2017. He is going to be picked in the first round based on his 2016 numbers and I get that, but it will not be by me. I just don’t see him as that lock guy you want in the first round to anchor your team. I am not ready to label Gordon as injury-prone, but he has suffered two significant injuries over the past two seasons. Gordon suffered a sprained PCL that cost him the final three games of the 2016 season. Gordon also had microfracture surgery in January 2016. The other question I have about Gordon is related to his dependency on high volume carries. Gordon’s career yards-per-carry average is a pedestrian 3.74 in 438 NFL carries.
6
LeSean McCoy Buffalo Bills
5’11, 208lbs , b:July 12, 1988 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATTs PHI 12 312 BUF 17 203 BUF 4 234 Buf 6
TDs 5 3 13 10
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 28 155 0 32 292 2 50 356 1 46 400 1
Before getting to the impending discussion about McCoy’s age, let’s first start with an important change with the Buffalo coaching staff. The arrival of new head coach Sean McDermott also signals a change on offense as Rick Dennison takes over as offensive coordinator. Prior to Buffalo, Dennison’s stints in Houston and Denver led to wild success for both teams. The Texans became a playoff team thanks to monster rushing seasons from Arian Foster. Meanwhile, the Broncos became one of the most formidable rushing attacks in the NFL in 2015 en route to winning Super Bowl 50. Thus, Dennison’s stretch zone scheme should be a welcome sight for McCoy owners. After posting strong numbers again in 2016, McCoy could be in line for another solid year. He finished last season as the third-best fantasy running back as a follow-up
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RUSHING YDs 1319 895 1267 1160
ANDY GOLDSTEIN’S CHALLENGE:
Unfavorable - It pays to be ahead of the trend in fantasy football. McCoy was underrated last year and now he’s being overrated. In the last two seasons McCoy ranked top 10 at running back, he’s followed up with a disappointing campaign. And now at 29 with nearly 2,000 career totes and a history of hamstring injuries to his name, McCoy is flat out too risky to take with a top 10 pick this year. (AG)
7
DeMarco Murray
Tennessee Titans
6’0, 217lbs , b:February 12, 1988
Team Rank ATTs DAL 1 392 PHI 18 193 TEN 5 293 Ten 7
RUSHING YDs TDs 1845 13 702 6 1287 9 1070 8
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 57 416 0 44 322 1 53 377 3 50 300 2
DeMarco Murray is an excellent illustration of how one bad year can dramatically change the perception of a player. Following his free agent failure in Philadelphia, Murray became viewed as a product of the Dallas offensive line who might not succeed elsewhere, only for his first season in Tennessee to reestablish him as a top performer at his position. He finished fourth among running backs in combined yardage and tied for sixth in combined touchdowns, even with Derrick Henry accounting for a quarter of the team’s carries. But while the season totals were strong, Murray’s week to week performance varied wildly. He topped one hundred rushing yards in five of his sixteen games while averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry in six others. Even more frustrating, his performance could not be anticipated based on the quality of the opponent, as three of his worst weeks came against bottom ten rush defenses. That inconsistency combined with the looming prospect of more touches for Henry raises some red flags regarding Murray’s future value, yet his proficiency as a receiver is an important hedge against the potential loss of rushing attempts. He has averaged more than fifty catches per season over the last four years, along with a handful of receiving touchdowns. (JDB)
8
Jordan Howard Chicago Bears
6’1, 230lbs , b:November 2, 1994 Year Team Rank ATTs 2016 CHI 10 252 2017 Chi 8
RUSHING YDs TDs 1313 6 1300 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 29 298 1 32 330 1
It’s time for a quiz: Ezekiel Elliott topped the NFL in rushing yards last season, but who finished second? David Johnson? Nope. Le’Veon Bell?
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RB
POSITION RANKING
Nope. It was Howard. Despite making just 13 starts, he also finished sixth among all NFL running backs in total yards and 12th (tie) in touches, closing out his rookie campaign as the ninth-rated fantasy back in standard scoring formats. Not too shabby for a fifth-round selection. As a starter, the old fashioned power back averaged an ultra-consistent 20.2 combo touches and 114.5 total yards per game. The bulk of his touches were carries – a hefty 18.5 per contest. So why are some fantasy owners a little nervous about Howard’s 2017 prospects? The additions of Benny Cunningham and rookie fourth-rounder Tarik Cohen have placed a firm ceiling on Howard’s passing-game usage. His scoring potential also will remain limited in a challenging offensive setup on a losing team. What’s the challenging offensive setup? Chicago replaced the Jay-Cutler-to-Alshon-Jeffrey connection with the Mike Glennon/Mitch Trubisky combo platter, and the unproven Cameron Meredith/Kevin White tandem. Will the Bears’ revamped aerial attack perform well enough to keep the offense afloat? Hopefully the run-first-andkeep-running-even-if-we’re-losing-the-game Bears will continue to give Howard all the touches that he can handle. (MW)
Upper Echelon 9
Todd Gurley
Los Angeles Rams
6’1, 227lbs , b:August 3, 1994 Year Team Rank 2015 STL 5 2016 LAR 15 2017 LAR 9
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 229 1106 10 278 885 6 1040 7
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 21 188 0 43 327 0 43 360 1
Is there a better example of a post-post-hype player than Gurley? He’s a guy that took the fantasy world by storm two seasons ago, coming off a major knee injury in his final season at Georgia, and becoming a top-five running back despite playing in just 13 games. But in 2016, the luster came off his shine, running behind a weak offensive line in an offense that couldn’t threaten defenses outside of the box. Late last season, a disgruntled Gurley said the Rams were employing a “middle-school offense,” which should be somewhat revamped now under new head coach Sean McVay, the former offensive coordinator for the Redskins, who ranked third in total offense last year. But the drop in yards per carry for Gurley, from 4.8 to 3.2 last season, has rekindled the ghost of Trent Richardson in some minds. Gurley, however, is a much better talent, in an organization that seems ready to rescue him. Gurley led the NFL in RB workload, carrying the ball for 74 percent of his team’s rushing attempts, and featured running backs are hard to come by these days. All of those facts help solidify Gurley as a second-rounder with great upside. (DG)
10
Jay Ajayi
Miami Dolphins
6’0, 228lbs , b:June 15, 1993 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team MIA MIA Mia
Rank ATTs 79 49 11 260 10
RUSHING YDs TDs 187 1 1272 8 1300 8
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 7 90 0 27 151 0 25 170 0
It felt overly optimistic when the Dolphins let Lamar Miller
walk and went with Ajayi, Damien Williams, Arian Foster, and Kenyan Drake at the running back position. Maybe NFL coaches get it right. Sometimes. Ajayi, after an ugly, early-season off-field issue, capitalized on his opportunity. In Weeks 5 and 6, Ajayi notched consecutive 200 yard games, scored three times, and became a fantasy darling. All in all, Ajayi finished 2016 top five in rushing yards per game and top 10 in attempts. Okay, now for the bad news. Outside of Ajayi’s three 200 yard games, he was, well, bottled up. In the six games between Week 8 and Week 13, Ajayi averaged a measly 3.5 yards per carry and scored once. The pessimistic fantasy owner will point to this as defenses keying on Ajayi and successfully stopping him. That may not be completely fair, but expecting multiple 200 yard performances again is probably foolish. Ajayi does, however, need to find some consistency and it’s why he’s ranked at the classic “tepid support” No. 10 spot. (AG)
11
Lamar Miller
Houston Texans
5’10, 225lbs , b:April 25, 1991
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATTs MIA 9 216 MIA 6 194 HOU 19 268 Hou 11
RUSHING YDs 1099 872 1073 1070
TDs 8 8 5 7
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 38 275 1 47 397 2 31 188 1 30 220 1
Miller’s first season in Houston turned into quite an intriguing story. The former Miami Dolphin delivered the second 1,000 yard season of his career, but averaged just four yards per carry while establishing a new career-high in carries with 268. Miller was slightly swallowed up by Houston’s perilous quarterback situation, and he couldn’t find consistent footing. Including the playoffs, Miller failed to reach 100 yards rushing in five of his last six games. The good news for Miller owners is the lack of Brock Osweiler, which should make things better for the Texans offense. Also, Miller’s knack for the end zone was eclipsed. He scored fewer times last year than the year before, both rushing and receiving. One storyline to keep an eye on will be Miller’s workload. During the offseason, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien admitted to overusing the free agent acquisition earlier in the year. Perhaps as a result of Miller’s workload, Houston used a third-round pick on running back D’Onta Foreman. (DJ)
12
Leonard Fournette (R) Jacksonville Jaguars
6’1, 228lbs, b:January 18, 1995 Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 Jax 12
RUSHING YDs TDs 980 11
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 25 200 0
The Jaguars want to run the ball in 2017, so with the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft, they selected Fournette. Only time will tell whether the Jaguars made the right choice or not, but there are clearly some warnings that fantasy players must consider when deciding whether to roster Fournette or not. Fournette played three games against the Alabama defense, loaded with top draft choices, and carried 57 times for only 145 yards. He has a history of ankle problems which caused him to miss more than half of the 2016 season at LSU. Catching passes was not a significant part of Fournette’s game at LSU, catching only 41 passes
in 32 games. With T.J. Yeldon as a good pass catching option, Fournette could see himself on the bench in third down situations. On the other hand, when given some space to get going, Fournette was one of the more dangerous backs in college history. Jacksonville will force feed Fournette the ball and it makes the rookie hard to pass up in the second round. (MM)
13
Isaiah Crowell Cleveland Browns
5’11, 225lbs , b:January 8, 1993 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CLE CLE CLE Cle
Rank ATTs 27 148 28 185 14 198 13
RUSHING YDs 607 706 952 980
TDs 8 4 7 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 9 87 0 19 182 1 40 319 0 31 290 2
let’s address a big problem that running backs on bad teams face. When talented runners play on bad teams, often the aforementioned squads face the problem of constantly being behind in games and playing in chase mode. The biggest issue with that for running backs is simple. If a team constantly trails by double figures, a running back’s carries could suffer. Last season, the Browns lost 10 games by double figures. Undoubtedly, that hurt Crowell’s numbers. He averaged 14 touches per game, which isn’t nearly enough to be a top-line fantasy running back. For example, David Johnson, arguably fantasy’s top back, averaged nearly 10 more touches. In regards to Crowell, this is a key. Last season, the four-year pro averaged just under five yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns. When he had opportunities, he turned into one of fantasy football’s more productive backs. If Crowell doesn’t receive any help on offense, he could struggle. However, consider him a second-tier running back in part thanks to his ability to catch passes. (DJ)
14
Carlos Hyde
San Francisco 49ers
6’0, 234lbs , b:September 20, 1991 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team SFO SFO SFO SF
Rank ATTs 52 83 55 115 18 217 14
RUSHING YDs 333 470 988 1010
TDs 4 3 6 7
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 12 68 0 11 53 0 27 163 3 25 160 2
The 49ers’ new braintrust passed on Leonard Fournette in the draft, but they traded up into the middle of Round 4 to draft Utah running back Joe Williams. Some reports have questioned whether the starting running back gig is up for grabs in San Francisco. Hyde is entering a contract year, and his between-the-tackles power-running style doesn’t appear to mix well with Shanahan’s outside zone-run scheme. But Hyde has improved his yards per carry each season, up to 4.6 yards per carry in 2016, and he added a career-high 27 receptions. Hyde’s rushing yards per attempt ranked ninth among running backs with at least 135 attempts, but he was also stuffed on 13% of his rushes, which is higher than average for a starter. Hyde should be in tip-top shape coming into camp, but Williams is probably going to cut into his touches. The promise of Hyde’s ability in a revamped 49ers offense makes Hyde a fantasy starter at running back, but the talent in the 49ers’ offensive huddle does limit his upside. (DG)
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as a rookie last season. Except, he didn’t exactly wrestle the starting job away from Devonta Freeman. Against all odds, reason, and expectations, Freeman more or less matched his 2015 season and Coleman excelled as more of a change of pace, receiving back. For those keeping score at home, the slight Freeman, billed as a versatile back out of college, became the primary runner and Coleman, the prototypical NFL back with elite speed averaged around 14 yards as a downfield receiving threat out of the slot and backfield. Fantasy football can be a tough nut to crack sometimes. While it was great to see Coleman expand his game, fantasy owners need the running stats to tick up to feel secure about Coleman. All systems are go in Atlanta, so it’s just a matter of staying healthy and hopefully picking up a bigger share of the carry distribution for Coleman to build on this solid second back ranking. (AG)
Ezekiel Elliott #2
15
C.J. Anderson Denver Broncos
5’8, 224lbs , b:February 10, 1991 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DEN DEN DEN Den
Rank ATTs 11 179 30 152 45 110 15
RUSHING YDs TDs 849 8 720 5 437 4 970 8
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 34 324 2 25 183 0 16 128 1 27 220 0
Since his 2014 breakout, Anderson has teased fantasy owners with huge upside as the undisputed lead dog in Denver’s run-heavy attack, but he has finished outside the top 25 in all fantasy scoring formats two straight years mainly due to nagging injuries. The smallish but scrappy three-down power runner has fully recovered from his latest ailment, a torn meniscus, which limited him to seven games last season and required surgery. For the third preseason in a row, however, Anderson’s upside is way too tempting to ignore. With only gimpy-kneed Jamaal Charles, Devontae Booker and rookie sixth-rounder De’Angelo Henderson as competition, Anderson is the alpha in the Broncos’ backfield yet again. Although Denver’s new offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, wants to open up the passing attack, he’ll still utilize a strong ground game as a safety net for the team’s young quarterbacks. The Broncos also used free agency and the draft to retool an offensive line that played very poorly at times in 2016. Will the 26-year-old Anderson, who has never started 16 games in a season, finally stay healthy and put it all together? While he offers fantasy starter upside, Anderson comes with risk too. He turns 31 in December. If his surgically repaired knee is okay, he could steal some passing-down work and change-of-pace snaps. But it might not be. (MW)
Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
16
Spencer Ware
K ansas City Chiefs
5’10, 227lbs, b:November 23, 1991
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team KC KC KC
Rank ATTs 52 72 16 214 16
RUSHING YDs TDs 403 6 921 3 860 3
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 6 5 0 33 447 2 35 420 2
In 2016, Ware was given the chance to be the primary back for the first time in his career and the results can be summed up as “O.K.” As the lead back, Ware only carried 20 or more times in three of the 14 games he played. He did average almost 2.5 catches
per game, an added bonus in PPR leagues. Ware was not much of a scoring threat, with only five touchdowns in 2016. The Chiefs added Kareem Hunt in the third round and he figures to give Ware a run for his money. Andy Reid is a coach with a history of using multiple running backs, even when he had Jamaal Charles in his prime. So when dividing carries between Ware, Hunt, Charcandrick West, Tyreek Hill, and Alex Smith, it is difficult to see Ware exceeding the useage, and fantasy value, he had in 2016. (MM)
17
Mark Ingram
New Orleans Saints
5’9, 215lbs , b:December 21, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team NO NO NO NO
Rank ATTs 15 226 15 166 8 205 17
TDs 9 6 6 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 29 145 0 50 405 0 46 319 4 41 300 1
Injuries and inconsistency plagued much of his professional career, yet the biggest obstacle keeping the former Heisman winner from achieving fantasy relevance was the Saints’ preference for using a committee approach at running back. 2014 marked the first time that Ingram topped 200 carries in a season, while the following year saw him finally take on a receiving role after Darren Sproles’ departure. Each time New Orleans asked him to do more, Mark succeeded. That culminated last season with his first campaign of one thousand rushing yards, his highest yards per carry average, his highest number of touchdowns, and his second best season as a receiver. Yet, just when he had proven that he is capable of excelling as a workhorse running back, the Saints signed Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara. While Ingram will remain the lead back, he simply will not receive enough touches to replicate last season’s success barring a significant injury to Peterson. (JDB)
18
Tevin Coleman Atlanta Falcons
6’0, 210lbs , b:April 16, 1993 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team ATL ATL Atl
Rank ATTs 76 87 20 118 18
RUSHING YDs TDs 392 1 520 8 500 8
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 2 14 0 31 421 3 30 430 3
Coleman finally became the fantasy force he showed glimpses of
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RUSHING YDs 964 769 1043 790
19
Christian McCaffrey (R)
Carolina Panthers 5’11, 203lbs, b:June 7, 1996
Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 Car 19
RUSHING YDs TDs 580 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 54 480 2
The Carolina Panthers have finished in the top 10 in rushing attempts each year since 2013. While they still have Jonathan Stewart, Carolina using a top ten pick on a running back isn’t exactly surprising. Yet, McCaffrey’s multifaceted skillset suggests he will do a little more than just carry the football for the Panthers. During his days as a Stanford Cardinal, McCaffrey showed a knack for being a plus weapon out of the backfield. He caught 82 passes for just under 1,000 yards in two seasons at Stanford. However, McCaffrey made his hay in college carrying the rock. He ran for 3,622 yards with a 6.1 yards per carry but his ability to translate that over to the NFL remains a big question. Between Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton, don’t expect McCaffrey to get plenty of redzone chances. Thus, his immediate fantasy value lies in PPR leagues. McCaffrey should be considered a decent option as a second-line fantasy running back. (DJ)
20
Marshawn Lynch
Oakland Raiders
5’11, 215lbs, b:April 22, 1986
Year 2014 2015 2017
Team Rank ATTs SEA 3 280 SEA 56 111 Oak 20
RUSHING YDs 1306 417 880
TDs 13 3 7
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 37 367 4 13 80 0 28 230 0
Lynch went undrafted in fantasy football in 2016! (His retirement likely had something to do with that, though.) After an injury-riddled final season with the Seahawks in 2015 and a year away from football, fantasy owners have to question whether this 31-year-old can rejuvenate his career in Oakland. Most fantasy football owners are leery of running backs once they reach 30 years old, and where Lynch gets a boost from resting for a year, he also gets a demerit for getting close to 300 touches in nearly every season dating back to 2007, when he entered the league. “Beast Mode” should get the early touches behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but he’ll still share the backfield with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington, just like Latavius Murray did last season. Getting Lynch beyond as a backup would be a great value for any drafter, but he’s a bigger risk if needed on a week-to-week basis. (DG)
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RB
POSITION RANKING
21
Dalvin Cook (R)
Minnesota Vikings
6’0, 209lbs, b:August 10, 1995
Year Team Rank 2017 Min 21
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 570 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 43 390 2
HIs up and down college career, combining great production, injuries and fumbles, ultimately ended up leading to a second-round draft pick and a situation in Minnesota that appears solidly in the ‘open’ category. The Vikings let Adrian Peterson go to the New Orleans Saints, brought in Latavius Murray, and still have Jerick McKinnon. It’s hard to see how Cook ends up with more than 200 or so carries this season, so he must be efficient with his carries, secure in his ball handling, and productive as a receiver. At Florida State, he ticked two of those boxes with fumbles being a concern. Minnesota’s offensive line struggled last season and while they did draft center Pat Elflein in Round 3, it probably will be a back-half of the league unit again. All of that limits Cook’s upside and scores him a weak second or strong flex type evaluation. (AG)
22
Ty Montgomery Green Bay Packers
6’2, 216lbs, b:January 22, 1993 Year Team Rank ATTs 2016 GB 57 77 2017 GB 22
RUSHING YDs TDs 457 3 530 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 44 348 0 55 360 3
Montgomery’s transition from wide receiver to running back wasn’t as odd as it initially appeared
23
Frank Gore
Indianapolis Colts
5’9, 217lbs , b:May 14, 1983 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team SFO IND IND Ind
Rank ATTs 17 255 12 260 12 263 23
RUSHING YDs 1106 967 1025 870
TDs 4 6 4 3
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 11 111 1 34 267 1 38 277 4 27 210 2
Gore is now 34 years old, a senior citizen among running backs. he continues to be an unspectacular, yet productive ball-carrier, rushing 263 times in 2016. His two lowest yards-per-rush seasons have been the last two (3.7 and 3.9) but his useage and durability enabled him to exceed 1,000 rushing yards for the ninth time. Receptions were at 38, but still nowhere near where he was in his prime, when he averaged 51 catches per season. The Colts finally drafted a running back, Marlon Mack in round four, but it is unclear at this time whether Mack will have a legitimate chance to unseat Gore. Gore had almost 80 percent of the Colts rushes from the running back slot in 2016 after being at almost 90 percent in 2015. (MM)
24
Joe Mixon (R)
Cincinnati Bengals 6’1, 227lbs, b:July 24, 1996
Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 Cin 24
RUSHING YDs TDs 730 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 27 260 0
The super-athletic rookie second-round selection is clearly the most talented three-down runner in a crowded Bengals backfield that includes Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. But Mixon will contribute immediately. Cincinnati didn’t take a public relations hit on the polarizing Mixon just to have him stand around on the sidelines. The question of who starts Week 1, however, is more dicey. Mixon should take that role eventually, but don’t be surprised if it happens more into the season. Despite operating in a timeshare at Oklahoma, the explosive Mixon, flashing 4.43 wheels, averaged 6.8 yards per carry on 300 totes of the rock and averaged 13.8 yards per reception on 65 catches. Mixon’s draft-day value will depend on his preseason performance, the health of Bernard and Hill’s level of play. If change-of-pace back Bernard is slow to recover from ACL surgery, Mixon will pick up the slack. If Hill, who has disappointed since a stellar rookie 2014 campaign, continues to underachieve, Mixon could replace him as the featured early-down runner by midseason – or possibly earlier. The smart money says the Bengals will ease Mixon into the mix slowly if they can. Fantasy owners should monitor Mixon and the Cincinnati backfield closely during the preseason, and draft him accordingly. (MW)
25
Mike Gillislee
New England Patriots 5’11, 218lbs, b:November 1, 1990
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team BUF BUF NE
Rank ATTs 74 47 39 101 25
RUSHING YDs TDs 267 3 577 8 900 9
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 6 29 0 9 50 1 9 50 0
Following New England’s spectacular and historic comeback victory over the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl, the Patriots’ backfield took center stage during the offseason. Their additions included former Bills running back Mike Gillislee, who scored eight touchdowns last season in Buffalo. While Gillislee doesn’t have a pedigree (or a 1,000 yard season to his credit) that would suggest he can post LeGarrette Blount-like numbers, the Patriots system seems to will players to success. He will get plenty of opportunities to produce - especially in the red zone, where Blount thrived throughout his Patriots career. One concern? There are definitely too many cooks in the Patriots kitchen. Gillislee will join newly acquired Rex Burkhead, Super Bowl hero James White, and Dion Lewis in the backfield. That is a lot of mouths to feed. Gillislee will fill Blount’s role as the primary power back and should be firmly seen as a secondary running back option. (DJ)
DAVID GONOS’S CHALLENGE:
Le’Veon Bell #3
Favorable - I’m not comfortable with Gillislee as an RB3 in fantasy leagues this season, much less as the one of the highest-ranked RB3s in 12-team leagues. The departure of LeGarrette Blount certainly opens up opportunities for rushing touchdowns for the leftover/new Patriots backfield, and the former Bills tailback has a chance to fill that role. Blount led the
Photo: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Solid
given his stature and questionable hands. Both shorter and more muscular than the majority of wideouts, Montgomery always had a running back’s build despite being a wide receiver throughout his time at Stanford. Injuries to other players forced a transition that should have occurred long ago, especially given how successful it was. Ty excelled as a running back, showing both the ability to make cuts in traffic to find open space and the balance to gain additional yards after contact. His background as a return man undoubtedly helped in those respects, but Montgomery showed that he is a legitimate running back and not simply a gimmick player. He has the skills and the build necessary to be the primary rusher in Green Bay. (JDB)
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NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns in 2016, and no one can just assume those all go to Gillislee. People point to his 5.7 yards per carry between 2015 and 2016 as evidence of an underused back waiting to explode if given a chance. Unfortunately, the Patriots backfield has always been confounding, and the presence of Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis and James White, make me incredibly wary of investing a high pick on Gillislee as my flex player or RB3.
26
Paul Perkins
New York Giants
5’10, 196lbs, b:November 16, 1994
Year Team Rank ATTs 2016 NYG 59 112 2017 NYG 26
RUSHING YDs TDs 456 0 630 5
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 15 162 0 30 250 1
While Perkins had an unspectacular rookie season with the Giants (4.1 YPC, 0 TDs), Rashad Jennings got twice as many touches as Perkins. But Jennings is no longer with the G-Men! Perkins is the incumbent, although, the Giants also drafted Clemson’s Wayne Gallman in the fourth round in April. Head coach Ben McAdoo has referred to Perkins as the starter this offseason, and that confidence and extra touches could prove to be a nice boost to Perkins’ stats. An interesting stat from his rookie season was that he was stuffed behind the line just five times in 112 carries (4.5%), which is considerably below average. Drafting him as a fantasy backup is smart, considering his upside, especially if the offensive line improves. (DG)
27
Bilal Powell
New York Jets
5’10, 204lbs , b:October 27, 1988
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team NYJ NYJ NYJ NYJ
Rank ATTs 86 33 45 70 17 131 27
RUSHING YDs 141 313 722 340
TDs 1 1 3 1
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 11 92 0 47 388 2 58 388 2 60 400 2
It was easy to see Bilal Powell scoring a ton of points if he was ever given the chance for playing time. When Matt Forte was injured in the latter half of the 2016 season, Powell finally had his chance and cashed in. In the final four games of the season, Powell had 82 carries and caught 21 passes for 596 total yards. Those numbers can certainly play, but consider that Powell has already been in the league for six years and there is a reason he has not been a lead back all of that time. (MM)
28
Eddie Lacy
Seattle Seahawks 5’11, 234lbs , b:June 2, 1990
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team GB GB GB Sea
Rank ATTs 6 246 26 187 75 71 28
RUSHING YDs 1139 758 360 800
TDs 9 3 0 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 42 427 4 20 188 2 4 28 0 24 200 0
The Lacy and Seahawks marriage is an intriguing one. Plagued by injuries and well-known weight problems during his last two seasons with the Packers, Lacy is desperately trying to resurrect his career, and the Seahawks are desperately trying to find a full-time workhorse since C.J. Prosise and Thomas Rawls both seem to lack the necessary durability for the job. When Lacy’s health and conditioning are both good, he’s a dominant
three-down runner. Operating as a bell cow in Green Bay during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Lacy amassed 2,317 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 530 carries (4.4 YPC), and 77 catches for 684 yards and four scores. Seattle acquired Marshawn Lynch when it had looked like his career was fading, and everybody knows how that move turned out. Can head coach Pete Carroll work some similar magic with Lacy? He’s playing on a one-year “prove it” deal that contains monthly weight clauses, so the 27-year-old Lacy should be motivated…in theory. If Lacy turns it around, his upside is huge. If Lacy can’t cut it as the lead dog, he’ll operate as a likely goal-line guy in a three-headed committee. Look for an outcome somewhere in between. (MW)
29
Danny Woodhead
31
Baltimore Ravens
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs 2014 SD 132 15 38 2015 SD 11 98 336 2016 SD 95 19 116 2017 Bal 29 280
TDs 0 3 0 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 5 34 0 80 755 6 6 35 1 44 440 3
When healthy, Danny Woodhead is a versatile running back not only gifted at generating yards as a receiver but also surprisingly capable of gaining yards on the ground, showing the vision to find holes between the tackles and the power to exploit them despite his lack of size. That health is a major concern, however, as he missed most of the 2014 season with a broken leg and almost all of last season with a torn ACL. Given that he is thirty-two, it remains to be seen how much explosiveness he will display following his recovery. At minimum he should be a productive pass catcher, and Kenneth Dixon’s four game suspension opens the door to contribute more. (JDB)
30
Latavius Murray 6’3, 225lbs , b:January 18, 1990 TDs 2 6 12 8
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 17 143 0 41 232 0 33 264 0 20 190 0
On this episode of “As the World Turns”, Murray has been replaced by the 12th pick in the 2007 draft (Marshawn Lynch) and now hopes to replace the seventh pick in the 2007 draft in Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have a stacked running back situation with newly drafted second rounder Dalvin Cook joining Murray and incumbent Jerick McKinnon. Murray has the most NFL carries of the group, but Cook is the guy the Vikings want to take over if he can prove himself. It’s a messy situation, but Murray still has an elite combination of size and speed. Unfortunately, his vision and durability do leave something to be desired and it’s ultimately why he’s fighting for a starting job in Minnesota instead of readying for another season as the Raiders lead back. As a fantasy backup, he has some upward mobility as a weak starter if he can hold off Cook. (AG)
JD BOLICK’S CHALLENGE:
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATTs CHI 4 266 CHI 8 218 NYJ 21 218 NYJ 31
Favorable - It’s easy to understand why people gravitate to rookies, as the ones who get drafted have considerable talent and experienced far more
RUSHING YDs 1038 898 813 640
TDs 6 4 7 5
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 102 808 4 44 389 3 30 263 1 28 200 0
How bad are the Jets? They’ll enter another season with a key veteran, who has one eye on the broadcast booth. Following in the footsteps of former teammate Brandon Marshall, Forte may be headed to a media role. The ex-Chicago Bear enrolled in an NFL Broadcast Boot Camp in May, which is a clear sign that he is thinking about retirement. Yet, Forte will press on in the Jets backfield reportedly behind Bilal Powell. The 31-year-old posted career-low numbers including the lowest yards per carry of his career (3.7 yards). Thus, a full-time move to Powell would make sense. Forte’s roster presence in larger leagues could be of assistance. While his prime days are behind him, he has a chance to contribute in smaller bursts. (DJ)
32
Minnesota Vikings
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs 2014 OAK 46 82 424 2015 OAK 10 266 1066 2016 OAK 13 195 788 2017 Min 30 580
Matt Forte
New York Jets
6’2, 218lbs , b:December 10, 1985
5’8, 200lbs , b:December 3, 1983
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success than failure in college. Dalvin Cook is exciting and new whereas Latavius Murray was pretty boring during his tenure with the Raiders behind a much better offensive line than the one he will run behind in Minnesota, but that lesser offensive line is precisely why I prefer Murray over Cook this season. Murray is the bigger and more physical back who can grind for additional yards after contact, which at minimum should secure him the goal line role. He has also been one of the best pass blocking running backs in the league for the last two seasons whereas Cook struggles in that area, meaning that Murray will also be preferred on third downs even though Cook is the bigger play-making threat.
Doug Martin
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5’9, 223lbs , b:January 13, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team TB TB TB TB
Rank ATTs 47 134 3 288 54 144 32
RUSHING YDs TDs 494 2 1402 6 421 3 680 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 13 64 0 33 271 1 14 134 0 27 220 0
Doug Martin’s five year career has been maddeningly inconsistent, with two superb seasons sullied by three terrible campaigns. Assorted injuries explain some of the discrepancy, yet the biggest culprit has been Tampa Bay’s offensive line. Martin is not a back who consistently creates on his own by breaking tackles or eluding defenders. He depends on his blocking to open up lanes, after which he can utilize his vision to gain what yards are available. A three game suspension to start the season will not only affect his totals but also give the other running backs an opportunity to seize his role. (JDB)
33
Robert Kelley Washington
5’10, 227lbs, b:October 3, 1992 Year Team Rank ATTs 2016 WAS 37 168 2017 Was 33
RUSHING YDs TDs 704 6 800 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 12 82 1 14 100 0
Washington averaged 403.4 offensive yards per game last season, which ranked third in the NFL, but that
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RB
POSITION RANKING
was done in spite of a below-average rushing attack (21st), led by Kelley. The Tulane product will have to work to keep fourth-round draftee Samaje Perine at bay, but offseason reports indicate Kelley’s in great shape, and coaches are happy with the work he’s putting in to stay on top. He’s not much help in the passing game, and Perine could end up stealing short-yardage touches. From a fantasy perspective, Kelley is a low-end RB3, and his upside is limited by the uncertainty of his role. (DG)
Keep An Eye On 34
Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans
6’3, 242lbs , b:July 17, 1994 Year Team Rank 2016 TEN 44 2017 Ten 34
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 110 490 5 680 5
RECs 13 19
RECEIVING YDs TDs 137 0 210 0
Henry looked tremendous nearly every time he touched the ball. He dominated second string defenses in the preseason and averaged 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season. The big problem was that Demarco Murray wasn’t as dead as some thought he was. Murray, 28, carried the ball 293 times, played in all 16 games, and effectively made Henry a fantasy afterthought. At some point, Murray’s age will show and Henry will become a fantasy force. But will it be this season? (AG)
35
Adrian Peterson
New Orleans Saints 6’1, 220lbs , b:March 21, 1985
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIN MIN MIN NO
Rank ATTs 124 21 2 327 118 37 35
RUSHING YDs 75 1485 72 630
TDs 0 11 0 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 2 18 0 30 222 0 3 8 0 21 220 1
The odds are heavily stacked against Peterson in 2017. At 32 years old, coming off a season that ended after three games due to a knee injury, success will be hard to come by. After all, incumbent Mark Ingram was very good, rushing for more than 1,000 yards, catching 46 passes and scoring 10 touchdowns. And the Saints used a third round draft choice on the exciting Alvin Kamara. One item in Peterson’s favor is the significant number of total plays run by the Saints offense, but Peterson is more “handcuff” material at this point. (MM)
36
Ameer Abdullah Detroit Lions
5’9, 200lbs, b:June 13, 1993 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team DET DET Det
Rank ATTs 43 143 96 18 36
RUSHING YDs 597 101 730
TDs 2 0 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 25 183 1 5 57 1 17 210 0
A season-ending foot injury (Lisfranc tear) that required surgery torpedoed his 2016 sophomore campaign in Week 2. The Lions didn’t make any major offseason upgrades to their backfield, and they’ve named Abdullah the starter. Dripping with big-play three-down ability, he’s capable of
ripping off huge gainers and should finish as Detroit’s leading rusher. Abdullah, however, will share touches with Theo Riddick, who is more of a weapon in the passing game. The slightly undersized Abdullah also doesn’t run with much power, and ball security and durability remain a concern. During his rookie season, Abdullah fumbled five times and lost two of them. (MW)
37
Theo Riddick Detroit Lions
5’9, 200lbs , b:May 4, 1991 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DET DET DET Det
Rank ATTs 54 20 38 43 25 92 37
RUSHING YDs 51 133 357 330
TDs 0 0 1 1
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 34 316 4 80 697 3 53 371 5 46 310 3
Even though ankle and wrist injuries caused Theo Riddick to miss six games last season, he still finished sixth among running backs in receptions after leading all backs the year before. His yardage totals are less impressive, as the Lions utilize him as a dump off option around the line of scrimmage and he lacks the explosiveness to do much after the catch. His role makes him a safe option in points per receptions leagues. (JDB)
38
Jonathan Stewart
Carolina Panthers
5’10, 235lbs , b:March 21, 1987
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CAR CAR CAR Car
Rank ATTs 23 175 16 242 27 218 38
RUSHING YDs 809 989 824 760
TDs 3 6 9 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 25 181 1 16 99 1 8 60 0 7 50 0
Time could be running out on Stewart’s run as the go-to back thanks to the drafting of Christian McCaffrey. While the Stanford rookie may not supplant Stewart immediately, rest assured the Panthers didn’t waste a top 10 pick on a player for him to collect dust. As a result, Stewart’s productivity could definitely be hindered. The best case scenario for Stewart owners is for McCaffrey to take on a pass-catching role. However, by season’s end, it’s likely that McCaffrey will be the guy in Carolina. (DJ)
39
Kenneth Dixon
Baltimore Ravens
5’10, 215lbs , b:January 21, 1994
Year Team Rank ATTs 2016 BAL 46 88 2017 Bal 39
RUSHING YDs TDs 382 2 400 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 30 162 1 32 210 1
If it weren’t for a pesky four game suspension to start the year, Dixon would probably have some healthy sleeper buzz. Against all odds, the Ravens did essentially nothing to bolster their running back situation in the offseason, which surprised many onlookers. That leaves Dixon to battle Terrance West as the two most likely lead dogs with Danny Woodhead entrenched as the receiving back. And if that doesn’t get the blood flowing, nothing will. Dixon probably would have been the defacto starter except he failed a drug test which makes a bad situation worse and keeps Dixon’s value as low as possible. Still, he’s worth a late round flier given the relative lack of competition once he gets back. (AG)
40
Jeremy Hill
Cincinnati Bengals
6’1, 235lbs , b:October 20, 1992 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CIN CIN CIN Cin
Rank ATTs 10 222 13 223 22 222 40
RUSHING YDs 1124 794 839 640
TDs 9 11 9 6
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 27 215 0 15 79 1 21 174 0 11 70 0
When your team adds a player considered to be one of the best college football talents at your position in the NFL Draft, that usually spells bad news. When Cincinnati drafted Oklahoma tailback Joe Mixon, who had off-the-field troubles that hurt his draft stock, current Bengals starter Jeremy Hill got the message. After back-to-back mediocre seasons, averaging 3.7 yards per carry since 2015, Hill changed his offseason regimen, hoping to improve on his yards after contact. After the NFL Draft, Hill went from being a mid-round to a late-round fantasy pick. (DG)
41
Kareem Hunt (R) K ansas City Chiefs
5’11, 201lbs, b:August 6, 1995 Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 KC 41
RUSHING YDs TDs 690 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 12 100 0
Are you yet to be impressed by the names Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West? Well, potentially add the Kansas City Chiefs to the list because they traded up to grab Hunt in the third round of April’s draft. After becoming Toledo’s all-time leading rusher, Hunt was named Most Outstanding Player at the Senior Bowl. Adept at making tacklers miss in college, Hunt could be a deep sleeper candidate to supplant Ware as lead back by season’s end. (DJ)
42
Thomas Rawls
Seattle Seahawks
5’9, 215lbs , b:August 8, 1993
Year Team Rank ATTs 2015 SEA 25 147 2016 SEA 60 109 2017 Sea
42
RUSHING YDs TDs 830 4 349 3 490
4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 9 76 1 13 96 0 21
220
0
Thomas Rawls had a clear path to carries in Seattle in 2016. He was ready to go at the start of 2016 after suffering a broken leg in 2015. But he broke his leg again two games in and did not return until late November. He was generally ineffective and now the Seahawks added Eddie Lacy, who figures to get the bulk of the carries. With C.J. Prosise poised to be the 3rd down back, Rawls could be the odd man out. (MM)
43
Duke Johnson
Cleveland Browns
5’9, 210lbs , b:September 23, 1993
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team CLE CLE Cle
Rank ATTs 34 104 31 73 43
RUSHING YDs TDs 379 0 358 1 270 0
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 61 534 2 53 514 0 36 330 3
Even though Johnson is capable of handling three-down back duties, the outstanding pass catcher and route runner remains locked into a low-ceiling third-down specialist role behind
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47
Jamaal Williams (R) Green Bay Packers
6’0, 201lbs, b:April 3, 1995 Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 GB 47
RUSHING YDs TDs 380 4
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 20 180 0
Expected to hold off a challenge from fellow rookie Aaron Jones, Williams will have a sizeable role in a timeshare with starter Ty Montgomery. Williams, an aggressive downhill power runner, possesses lackluster 4.6 speed, but he topped BYU in rushing for four straight seasons. Even though Williams is considered a competent outlet receiver, sure-handed Montgomery will handle most of the passing-down duties. If Montgomery struggles with sickle cell or nagging injuries for the second year in a row, Williams’ role will expand. (MW)
48
Dion Lewis
New England Patriots 5’8 195lbs, b:September 27, 1990
Year 2015 2016 2017
Devonta Freeman #4
early-down guy Isaiah Crowell. Since Johnson hasn’t shown a nose for the end zone in two seasons, racking up catches as a safety valve for a sub-par collection of quarterback talent will remain his main source of value. His workload will increase if Crowell underachieves or goes down with an injury. (MW)
44
LeGarrette Blount
Philadelphia Eagles 6’0, 250lbs , b:December 5, 1986
Photo: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team 2TM NE NE Phi
Rank ATTs 36 125 29 165 9 299 44
RUSHING YDs 547 703 1161 460
TDs 5 6 18 9
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 10 54 0 6 43 1 7 38 0 7 30 0
Blount is coming off a career-high in both rushing yards and an NFL-high rushing touchdowns, but the 250-lb. power back turned 30 years old in December, and the Patriots let him test the free-agent waters. Blount signed with the Eagles in mid-May, but we should remember most of Blount’s NFL success has been limited to when he was with the Patriots. The Eagles are expected to release Ryan Mathews, so Blount will be used between the tackles on early downs and in short yardage, with Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood getting work on passing downs. Philly’s West Coast offense is a great landing spot for Blount, but his fantasy contributions in 2017 should be a shadow of what they were in 2016. (DG)
45
Samaje Perine (R)
Washington
5’10, 234lbs, b:September 16, 1995
Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 Was 45
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 25 240 1
Despite being Oklahoma’s all-time leading rusher and the NCAA FBS single game rushing record holder, Samaje Perine is more of a plodding workhorse back than a talented playmaker. He runs with vision and power between the tackles, but lacks the speed to be effective outside or the agility to make defenders miss. In Washington, he should be able to claim the short yardage role and will accrue most of his value from rushing touchdowns. (JDB)
46
Darren Sproles Philadelphia Eagles
5’6, 190lbs , b:June 20, 1983 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team PHI PHI PHI Phi
Rank ATTs 30 57 41 83 24 94 46
RUSHING YDs 329 317 438 240
TDs 6 3 2 0
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 40 387 0 55 388 1 52 427 2 36 300 2
In 11 full NFL seasons, Darren Sproles has only 3,300 career rushing yards. So why would he be ranked in the top 50? Total yards, receptions and touchdowns, that’s why. Over the past three seasons with the Eagles, Sproles has 2288 yards, 147 receptions and 18 touchdowns. With Blount now in line to see the bulk of the carries, Sproles could see his reception total increase back to his Saints days. Sproles is clearly a player with greater value in PPR leagues or leagues that count special teams stats over standard scoring leagues. (MM)
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RUSHING YDs TDs 370 2
Team NE NE NE
Rank ATTs 49 49 70 64 48
RUSHING YDs TDs 234 2 283 0 210 1
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 36 388 2 17 94 0 32 320 1
The mystery of the New England running stable continues on for another season. Two years ago, it was Lewis who emerged as perhaps the top fantasy pick of the bunch thanks to how much of a receiving threat he was. He posted nearly 400 receiving yards in 7 games before suffering a season ending injury. Last year, however, became the LeGarrette Blount show and Lewis took a back seat. Blount left through free agency, but the team brought in Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. Along with receiving threat James White, there are too many cooks in the kitchen. Lewis is expected to have a reduced role so his fantasy value is tied mostly to receiving stats and the occasional game where he’s favored.
49
Devontae Booker
Denver Broncos
5’11, 219lbs , b:May 27, 1992
Year Team Rank ATTs 2016 DEN 29 174 2017 Den 49
RUSHING YDs TDs 612 4 250 1
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 31 265 1 37 280 0
He might have had a bigger role in the Broncos offense in 2016 if not for a major fumbling problem. He caught three or more passes only three times all season. Now he will have to battle Jamaal Charles and rookie De’Angelo Henderson for touches. (MM)
50
Giovani Bernard
Cincinnati Bengals
5’9, 205lbs , b:November 22, 1991
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CIN CIN CIN Cin
Rank ATTs 18 168 21 154 40 91 50
RUSHING YDs TDs 680 5 730 2 337 2 330 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 43 349 2 49 472 0 39 336 1 25 210 0
Still occasionally dynamic in open field, Bernard’s path to the starting gig got tougher with Cincinnati selecting Joe Mixon in the second round of this year’s draft. (AG)
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RB
POSITION RANKING
One Sentence 51
56
DeAndre Washington
Oakland Raiders
5’8, 190lbs, b:February 22, 1993
Year Team Rank 2016 OAK 55 2017 Oak
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 87 467 2
RECs 17
470
18
51
2
RECEIVING YDs TDs 115 0 120
0
The Raiders coaxed Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, which means Washington will likely battle Jalen Richard for time as Beast Mode’s primary backup. (DJ)
52
5’10, 194lbs, b:February 3, 1992
2016 NE 2017 NE
26 52
39
RUSHING YDs TDs 38 0 56 2 166 330
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 5 23 0 40 410 4
0 3
60 20
551 160
5 0
Although the Patriots have a crowded backfield, James White is expected to retain his role as the team’s primary receiving running back. (JDB)
53 Team JAX JAX Jax
T.J. Yeldon RUSHING YDs TDs 740 2 465 1 180 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 36 279 1 50 312 1 23 330 0
Although Leonard Fournette is the future in the Jaguars’ backfield, Yeldon, far and away the best receiving back on their roster, will have PPR-league value as a third-down specialist. (MW)
54
D’Onta Foreman (R) Houston Texans
6’1, 249lbs, b:April 24, 1996 RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs TDs 2017 Hou 54 260 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 20 200 1
The Texans will likely use the former Doak Walker award-winner as the backup to starting tailback Lamar Miller, which means the rookie could be a standout waiver-wire pickup if Miller gets hurt. (DG)
55
Chris Thompson 5’8, 194lbs, b:October 20, 1990 TDs 0 0 3 0
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 6 27 1 35 240 2 49 349 2 28 260 2
Chris Thompson has a knack for the end zone, cashing in five times in only 117 touches. Thompson figures in as a bye week replacement in PPR leagues, catching three or more passes in nine games in 2016. (MM)
61
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 6 55 0 26 200 0
Jalen Richard
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs TDs 2016 OAK 41 83 491 1 2017 Oak 58 380 3
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 29 194 2 13 120 0
Will compete with DeAndre Washington to backup Marshawn Lynch in Las- er Oakland. (AG)
59
Charles Sims
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6’0, 211lbs, b:September 19, 1990
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team TB TB TB TB
Rank ATTs 75 66 22 107 63 51 59
RUSHING YDs 185 529 149 210
TDs 1 0 1 1
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 19 190 0 51 561 4 24 190 1 25 220 1
Unless Doug Martin is traded or released, Sims will be battling rookie Jeremy McNichols and veteran Jacquizz Rodgers for playing time. (JD)
60
Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 Ind 61
Alvin Kamara (R)
New Orleans Saints 5’10, 194lbs, b:July 25, 1995
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs TDs 2017 NO 60 370 3
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 12 120 0
With Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram ahead of him on the depth chart, Kamara is likely to be a pass catching threat out of the backfield for the Saints. (DJ)
RUSHING YDs TDs 370 3
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 12 110 0
Marlon Mack is an explosive playmaker who has yet to master running between the tackles, which means that he probably won’t supplant Frank Gore but would have considerable value if Gore were to miss time. (JDB)
62
Darren McFadden Dallas Cowboys
6’1, 210lbs , b:August 27, 1987 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team OAK DAL DAL Dal
Rank ATTs 37 155 14 239 24 62
RUSHING YDs 534 1089 87 230
TDs 2 3 0 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 36 212 0 40 328 0 3 17 0 20 220 0
The aging McFadden returns to the fray after missing the 2016 season with an arm injury and firmly entrenched behind Ezekiel Elliott...and Alfred Morris (for now). (DJ)
63
Jacquizz Rodgers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5’6, 196lbs, b:February 6, 1990
Oakland Raiders
5’8, 207lbs, b:October 15, 1993
Marlon Mack (R)
Indianapolis Colts 5’11, 214lbs, b:March 7, 1996
Philadelphia Eagles
With the addition of LeGarrette Blount and expected subtraction of Ryan Mathews, Smallwood is in line to be the primary running backup in a backfield with a starting runner (Blount) and a starting receiver (Darren Sproles). (AG)
Washington
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs 2014 WAS 121 3 12 2015 WAS 63 35 216 2016 WAS 28 68 356 2017 Was 55 170
Wendell Smallwood
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs TDs 2016 PHI 71 77 312 1 2017 Phi 57 230 2
Jacksonville Jaguars Rank ATTs 27 182 33 130 53
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 17 208 0 17 170 0
Prosise flashed some impressive big-play ability in a three-down role before going down with a shoulder injury during his 2016 rookie campaign and could see more action than expected if reclamation project Eddie Lacy flops. (MW)
58
6’1, 225lbs , b:October 2, 1993
Year 2015 2016 2017
RUSHING Year Team Rank ATTs YDs TDs 2016 SEA 66 30 172 1 2017 Sea 56 300 3
5’11, 201lbs, b:January 20, 1994
New England Patriots
Year Team Rank ATTs 2014 NE 136 9 2015 NE 50 22
Seattle Seahawks
6’1, 220lbs , b:May 20, 1994
57
James White
C.J. Prosise
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team ATL CHI TB TB
Rank ATTs 63 58 137 14 53 129 63
RUSHING YDs TDs 217 1 41 0 560 2 370 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 29 173 1 1 10 0 13 98 0 10 80 0
Doug Martin’s suspension, Charles Sims’ disappointing season and the Bucs waiting until the fifth round to add Jeremy McNichols are all good signs for Rodgers to follow up on his best NFL season as a backup. (DG)
64
Joe Williams (R)
San Francisco 49ers 5’11, 210lbs, b:September 4, 1993
Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 SF 64
RUSHING YDs TDs 300 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 12 110 0
Williams’ challenge is to beat out Tim Hightower for the right to be the primary backup to Carlos Hyde. (MM)
65
James Conner (R)
Pittsburgh Steelers 6’2, 233lbs, b:May 5, 1995)
Year Team Rank ATTs 2017 Pit 65
RUSHING YDs TDs 230 2
RECEIVING RECs YDs TDs 14 150 0
Conner appears to be the primary backup to Le’Veon Bell which actually makes him very valuable to Bell owners. (AG)
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2017 POSITION R ANKING
WIDE RECEIVERS W
elcome to the sexiest position in fantasy football. This is where the magic happens! The top of the rankings will look pretty familiar to savvy fantasy owners. But last year featured some exciting newcomers to the top of the receiver rankings. Michael Thomas had an historic rookie season and a top 10 ranking. In Green Bay, Davante Adams lived up to the early promise to have a surprisingly studly season. His value this season far exceeds what it was last year. The flip side can’t be ignored, of course. From big time disappointments like DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, and Demaryius Thomas to the untapped potential of Devante Parker, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman, who can be relied upon this season? Whose value has plummeted so far that they could be free agents after draft day? And then there are the shiny new toys NFL and fantasy teams can’t wait to take for a spin. Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross were all taken top 10 overall in the NFL draft. But don’t sleep on later picks like Zay Jones and Curtis Samuel. After watching Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard outshine all the rookie wideouts last season (save for Thomas), it might just be time for a turnaround this season. (AG)
Elite 1
2
Antonio Brown
Pittsburgh Steelers
Photo: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs PIT 1 129 1698 13 PIT 1 136 1834 10 PIT 2 106 1284 12 Pit 1 122 1530 11
ATTs 4 3 3
RUSHING YDs 13 28 9
Odell Beckham Jr. New York Giants
5’11, 198lbs, b:November 5, 1992
5’10, 181lbs, b:July 10, 1988
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
TDs 0 0 0
Brown became one of the game’s elite players a few years ago, but it’s difficult to remain elite from a fantasy perspective when so much around changes. Since 2013, Brown has averaged over 120 receptions, 1,500 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while the Steelers offense has undergone alterations. From the emergence of Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant to the injuries and suspensions to Bell and Bryant, to Ben Roethlisberger’s own up-and-down injury history, Brown has remained a fantasy keystone for any team. In an era when running backs move in and out of the top-three overall choices faster than ever, No. 84’s consistent awesomeness makes him an early first-round pick every year, much like Jerry Rice was in the ‘90s. He’s a Zero-RB Theorist’s dream, as a wide receiver with great health (one missed game in the past four seasons, and that was a coach’s decision in Week 17) on a high-powered offense that passes the ball his way a lot (top-five in targets every year since 2012), and he’s still under 30 years old. There’s no reason to think Bryant’s return from suspension and Bell’s return to health will impact Brown’s stats negatively, which makes him a top-five pick in all drafts once again in 2017. (DG)
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs NYG 5 91 1305 12 NYG 5 96 1450 13 NYG 3 101 1367 10 NYG 2 107 1450 12
ATTs 7 1 1
RUSHING YDs 35 3 9
TDs 0 0 0
Is the best yet to come from Beckham? This awesomely talented wideout won’t turn 25 until November, and some think ODB hasn’t reached a statistical ceiling yet, despite averaging 96 catches, 1,374 receiving yards and 11.7 touchdown receptions per season during his first three years in the NFL. Even though Eli Manning suffered through a down 2016 in New York’s pass-heavy attack, the explosive Beckham still cranked out his typically fantastic numbers to finish as the fourth-best fantasy wideout in both non-PPR and one-point PPR scoring formats. ODB, the second-most targeted NFL wideout (169 looks), ranked third in the league in both catches and receiving yards, and just four receivers notched more scoring grabs. Is there reason to worry about Manning? His unexpected problems—turnovers, occasionally ill-advised throws and shaky pass protection—are all fixable, but there are whispers that Manning’s arm strength is slowly declining. Don’t worry, he should have at least two more good seasons left. The additions of Brandon Marshall and rookie WR/TE hybrid Evan Engram, and the presence of a more seasoned Sterling Shepard won’t mean fewer targets for Beckham. Manning will continue to feed his superstar wideout whenever possible, and ODB
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ANTONIO BROWN #1
shouldn’t be double teamed as often. Much has been made about Beckham’s temper and occasionally out-of-control behavior. Defenders get under his skin every so often. Following the Giants’ playoff loss to the Packers last season, an angry Beckham punched a hole in a wall outside his team’s locker room and cursed at Green Bay’s grounds crew. ODB is clearly meltdown prone but he’s also one of the best fantasy wideouts. (MW)
3
Mike Evans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6’5, 231lbs, b:August 21, 1993
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs TAM 11 68 1051 12 TAM 27 74 1206 3 TAM 6 96 1321 12 TB 3 101 1360 13
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Tampa Bay Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans became a certified NFL superstar in 2016. Only Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson outscored Evans in NFFC scoring in 2016, barely. The chemistry with Jameis Winston is undeniable as Evans led the NFL in targets in 2016. About the only thing to get nervous about when calling out Evans name on draft day is the touchdown total. Seeing three in 2015 with bookends of 12 is a little scary. The thought here is that 2015 was an anomaly and Evans will have no trouble scoring touchdowns in 2017. The addition of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard are not expected to have a significant negative effect on Evans production and may actually lead to Evans converting a higher percentage of targets into receptions. Evans did have a reputation early in his career for dropping passes, but he has clearly worked hard to reduce that worry. (MM)
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WR
POSITION RANKING
6
Atlanta Falcons
6’3, 220lbs, b:February 3, 1989 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 ATL 8 104 1593 6 2015 ATL 2 136 1871 8 2016 ATL 18 83 1409 6 2017 Atl 4 99 1600 9
Jordy Nelson
Green Bay Packers
6’3, 217lbs, b:May 31, 1985 Year 2014 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs GB 2 98 1519 13 GB 5 97 1257 14 GB 5 97 1330 11
ATTs 0
Cincinnati Bengals 6’4, 207lbs, b:July 31, 1988
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 1 1 0 0 0 0
Arguably the most physically dominant wide receiver in the NFL, Jones has established himself as the preeminent source of receiving yardage, finishing second in the league last season after leading all receivers in 2015. He is at his best turning short or intermediate passes into long gains by breaking tackles and using his straight line speed to find open space. What holds him back from being the top fantasy wideout is his perplexing ineffectiveness in the red zone. He’s reached double-digit touchdowns just once in his six-season career. The abilities that make him dominant in other parts of the field hold less sway where defenders are better able to contest passes and prevent yards after the catch. He has worked hard to eliminate the drops that plagued him in college, but his hands are still a weakness and probably explain why the Falcons do not look his way more often in the end zone. Only 6.5 percent of Matt Ryan’s completions in the red zone last season went to Jones, and until Atlanta targets him around the goal line he will not become the best at his position. It should also be noted that lower body injuries have been a recurring issue, as he has played all sixteen games only twice. That said, he is an elite option with the potential for more. (JDB)
5
A.J. Green
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0
The 2016 Comeback Player of the Year surprised many by making an emphatic return from a torn ACL during the 2015 preseason. Over the years, star receivers like Wes Welker and Kelvin Benjamin were slow to return to form after suffering similar injuries. Yet, after a somewhat slow start to the season, the nine-year veteran went on a tear over the final two months of the year. He finished as fantasy football’s top wide receiver thanks to an NFL-leading 14 touchdown catches. His run included a stretch where he caught at least one touchdown pass in eight of his first 10 games. While his yardage numbers dipped a bit and his explosiveness wasn’t quite the same, Nelson nearly topped 100 catches again en route to one of the best seasons of his career. Heading into ‘17, he could return a bit more to 2014 form with another year further removed from the ACL injury. What could stop Nelson from repeating his great ‘16 campaign? Green Bay’s signing of tight end Martellus Bennett could cut into Nelson’s red zone chances. Otherwise, it should be full systems go in Green Bay again for Nelson and company. As long as Aaron Rodgers is upright for the Packers, that should lead to more monster numbers for Packers receivers, including Nelson. (DJ)
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 CIN 42 66 964 4 2017 Cin 6 91 1360 8
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
A healthy AJ Green is quite a sight to behold. Over the first half of the 2016 season, Green was unstoppable. He lead the league in receiving yards and was on pace for nearly 1,800 total receiving yards, something that has only been done four times in NFL history. Green has the height, speed, hands, and body control to beat defensive backs in multiple ways. There are some reasons Green’s ranking has slipped this year, however. First is the question of health. Green suffered a hamstring “strain” during the Cincinnati Week 11 game against the Bills. While initially it appeared Green would only miss a couple games, he was eventually shut down for the rest of the season. Green has been medically cleared, but fantasy owners will remember having the rug pulled out from under them last season. The other question comes down to target-share. Quite simply, Green had little competition for targets last year. Tyler Eifert missed most of the early portion of the year and Brandon LaFell was the team’s second most targeted receiver. Green averaged 10 looks a game, good for fifth most in the league. The Bengals addressed this issue in the draft by selecting John Ross, Joe Mixon, and Josh Malone with their first, second, and fourth round picks respectively. Add in a healthy Tyler Eifert and some expected growth from second year wide receiver Tyler Boyd and suddenly the idea of 10 targets a game seems wishful for Green. That’s not to say Green won’t be productive and having some talent around him will surely be good for his efficiency. But it’s enough to put in the ‘con’ column for Green’s value to be about what it was last preseason despite his historic first half pace. (AG)
JD BOLICK’S CHALLENGE:
Unfavorable - A.J. Green remains one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, but he has missed multiple games in two out of the last three seasons and the Cincinnati offense has more competition for touches than ever before. By spending
the team’s first two draft picks on offensive skill positions, the Bengals created more options on offense that reduce the degree to which the team has to rely on Green. He will continue to be the focus of the passing attack and lead the team in targets per game, but not by as much as in previous years. There are only so many balls to go around, particularly on a team that wants to be balanced as opposed to pass-heavy. And given Green’s history of lower body injuries during his professional career, he represents a bigger risk than most of the other elite wide receivers.
7
T.Y. Hilton
Indianapolis Colts
5’9 180lbs, b:November 14, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team IND IND IND Ind
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 10 82 1345 7 22 69 1124 5 10 91 1448 6 7 87 1350 7
ATTs 2 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 20 0 0 0
Anybody still think that the Colts own a trio of interchangeable weapons at wideout? Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Their receiver corps is still T.Y. Hilton and “the Hiltonettes.” Bouncing back nicely from a “down” 2015, Hilton racked up career-highs in catches and receiving yards to close out last season as the fifth-best fantasy wideout in both non-PPR and one-point PPR scoring formats. Hilton also topped the NFL in receiving yards, which was his fourth straight campaign with 1,000-plus, and only three wideouts eclipsed his 156 targets. The next-most targeted “Hiltonette” was Jack Doyle with 75 looks, and Phillip Dorsett logged 60 targets. If Donte Moncrief had stayed healthy enough to play 16 games, he would have been targeted an estimated 100 times. Hilton is clearly Andrew Luck’s favorite target by a wide margin, and that’s not going to change. Why doesn’t Hilton, who turns just 28 in November, receive more respect in the fantasy universe? The surprisingly durable 5-foot-9, 180-pound burner has missed just two games in five seasons. Hilton, like all big-play dependent wideouts, is streaky and prone to posting an occasional dud outing. Because of his smallish size, Hilton can’t operate as a featured red-zone target, which is probably why he has never scored fewer than five or more than seven times in a
ODELL BECKHAM Jr. #2
Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
4
Julio Jones
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season. Granted, Hilton has “fleas” like every other fantasy player and a little statistical regression from the career-best numbers is very likely, but he’s still a rock-solid fantasy WR1 choice. (MW)
8
Michael Thomas
New Orleans Saints 6’3, 212lbs, b:August 16, 1994
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 NO 9 92 1137 9 2017 NO 8 84 1070 12
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs
The outstanding play of Thomas in his rookie year fast-tracked ex-teammate Brandin Cooks from New Orleans to New England. Thomas led the Saints in receptions, targets, and touchdowns in 2016 and figures to play a prominent role once more in ‘17. While Thomas only nabbed three 100-yard receiving games, he proved to be a consistent performer. Despite being a rookie, Thomas finished ninth in scoring among fantasy wide receivers and ahead of such stars as Amari Cooper, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas. Entering year two, a new challenge arises for Thomas. With Cooks out of the picture, he’ll have to do without another significant option in the passing game. Thus, defensive coverages against Thomas could become a bit more aggressive and make the numbers just a bit harder to come by. The good news for Thomas owners is that Drew Brees can be one heck of an equalizer. If a teammate can throw for 5,000 yards, the opportunities will find a way to materialize. Seeing Thomas endure a sophomore slump would not be a surprise but with Brees pulling the trigger in New Orleans, a big dropoff is hard to envision for Thomas. He is on track to be one of fantasy football’s best again. (DJ)
9
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders
6’1, 211lbs, b:June 18, 1994 Year 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs OAK 24 72 1070 6 OAK 17 83 1153 5 Oak 9 94 1310 6
ATTs 3 1
RUSHING YDs TDs -3 0 0 0
Expectations have been sky-high for Cooper since he was drafted with the fourth pick in the 2015 draft. And Cooper’s stats, two nearly identical seasons averaging 1,111 yards and 5.5 scores per season have been good, but not great. In fact, teammate Michael Crabtree has more touchdowns over the last two years than Cooper does. The Cooper breakout, though, is coming. And there’s every reason to think this should be the year. Cooper is entering his third year, famously a common season for a statistical jump at the position. Crabtree will be 30 this year and should slow down at least a little. So yes, there’s some faith at play here, but everything is set up for a top 10 season from the former Alabama receiver. Cooper has elite speed and is able to fight through cornerback tackle attempts for extra yards after the catch. He has had issues with concentration which has resulted in dropped passes. As the game slows down (that whole experience thing), Cooper will convert those plays at a higher clip and blossom into the fantasy stud he was projected to be. (AG)
10
Brandin Cooks
5’10, 189lbs, b:September 25, 1993
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team NO NO NO NE
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 58 53 550 3 12 84 1138 9 24 78 1173 8 10 88 1320 6
ATTs 7 8 6
RUSHING YDs 73 18 30
TDs 1 0 0
New England traded its first round pick for Brandin Cooks because he is one of the best wide receivers in the league at changing directions. His quick feet and remarkable agility consistently leave defenders off balance when he makes cuts or otherwise uses moves to set up his eventual pattern, making him an exceptionally difficult assignment in man to man coverage. Cooks’ proficiency on double moves frequently got him behind the coverage the last two seasons, where he amassed twenty-three receptions for one thousand and seven yards along with ten touchdowns on passes that traveled more than twenty yards in the air. Although Tom Brady has a reputation for short passing, it should be noted that he attempted more of those long passes per game last season than Drew Brees. Brandin is not simply a deep threat, however, as he is effective at all levels of the route tree and has demonstrated the toughness to complete tough catches over the middle despite his small stature. Cooks’ abilities in combination with Brady’s accuracy is extremely exciting, with the only limiting factor being the number of targets he will receive in an offense with so many weapons. (JDB)
11
Dez Bryant
Dallas Cowboys
6’2, 220lbs, b:November 4, 1988 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DAL DAL DAL Dal
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 4 88 1320 16 79 31 401 3 84 50 796 8 11 76 1240 9
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
There were plenty of reasons to be cautious of drafting Dez Bryant last season, including the addition of a stud rookie running back, an injured veteran quarterback and an inexperienced rookie backup quarterback. That doesn’t even mention the nightmare 2015 season Bryant went through after foot surgery. No. 88 looked like he was off to another rough season marred with injuries, but he got better and better as the season wore on. As Dak Prescott matures in his second season, and defenses begin to worry more about Ezekiel Elliott and the running game, Bryant has a chance to post better numbers in 2017 than he did in 2015 and 2016 combined (1,197 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns). Once healthy, Bryant’s game improved considerably last year, and Jordy Nelson was the only WR with more touchdown catches between Weeks 8 and 17. Since about one-third of each league’s fantasy owners were close to being out of playoff contention by Week 8, Bryant’s return to prominence didn’t get noticed by everyone. Consider that Bryant posted just 2.8 yards after the catch last season, compared to 4.9 YAC he had in 2014, and it’s easy to see how a healthy Bryant could post big numbers yet again for fantasy owners in 2017. He’s a mid-second round pick with first-round potential. (DG)
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Upper Echelon
New England Patriots
12
DeAndre Hopkins Houston Texans
6’1, 207lbs, b:June 6, 1992 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team HOU HOU HOU Hou
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 15 76 1210 6 6 111 1521 11 26 78 954 4 12 94 1150 7
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
DeAndre Hopkins made the jump from very good to elite in 2015 while catching passes from marginal NFL quarterbacks Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden. Hopkins numbers took great leaps in each of his two seasons since having a strong rookie season in 2013 (52-76-111 receptions, 802- 1210-1521 yards, 2-6-11 touchdowns). The sky appeared to be the limit for Hopkins in 2016 with the apparent upgrades the Texans made on offense. But after two good games to start the 2016 season, the roof caved in on Hopkins progression to greatness. Quarterback Brock Osweiler could not get the job done and was eventually replaced. Hopkins was unable to separate from defenders and while he continued to catch passes, the yards and touchdowns disappeared. Hopkins did not exceed 71 receiving yards and scored only two touchdown from week three thru week 14. Hopkins did rebound to catch 18 passes for 253 yards in the final three regular season games and caught 12 in two playoff games. Hopkins will drop from an early first round draft choice in 2016 to a late second / early third round pick in 2017. With the numbers he has posted in the past, Hopkins provides great potential value falling down to that level. (MM)
MATT WILSON’S CHALLENGE:
Unfavorable - Hopkins was a top-six fantasy wideout two years ago, so I have no doubts whatsoever about the elite route-running technician’s talents. His quarterback situation, however, makes me very nervous, and we learned last season that Hopkins isn’t resistant to crummy quarterback play after all. The Texans’ No. 1 receiver couldn’t get on the same page with struggling check-down artist Brock Osweiler, finishing as a backup fantasy receiver. Betting on Hopkins returning to elite fantasy status is a wager that I’m not going to take. The Houston coaching staff is talking up Tom Savage, but I don’t think he’s much better than Osweiler. Will rookie Deshaun Watson play well enough to help Hopkins return to fantasy WR1 production? Not this season. I’m willing to draft Hopkins, but he’ll need to fall into No. 3 fantasy wideout territory for me to pull the trigger.
13
Demaryius Thomas
Denver Broncos
6’3, 229lbs, b:December 25, 1987
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DEN DEN DEN Den
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 3 111 1619 11 13 105 1304 6 12 90 1083 5 13 94 1100 6
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
The question of ‘What makes a fantasy wide receiver?’ has a nice little test case in Thomas. And so far “quarterback play” is the leading answer. Thomas
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WR
POSITION RANKING
broke into the league with Tim Tebow and, well, didn’t post great stats. Then Good Peyton Manning took over and Thomas reeled off three straight 1,400 yard, 10 touchdown seasons. Then there was one season of Eh Peyton Manning and last year’s rotation of Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian. Not coincidentally, Thomas’ touchdown rate has been halved and his yardage has fallen. Yes, injuries might also be playing a role as a hip issue clearly slowed Thomas at points last year. That said, Thomas has been remarkably durable in his career. He’s played 16 games each of the last five years and comes into 2017 as one of the safer wide receivers to improve on his 2016 stats. That means Thomas is going as a second wide out as opposed to the clearcut #1 he’s been since the 2013 preseason. If Denver’s quarterback play can make some mini improvements, Thomas could be one of the better bargains on draft day. (AG)
14
Doug Baldwin
Mike Evans #3
Seattle Seahawks
5’10, 189lbs, b:November 21, 1988
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs SEA 45 66 825 3 SEA 7 78 1069 14 SEA 7 94 1128 7 Sea 14 84 1050 8
ATTs 1 0 3
RUSHING YDs 8 0 2
TDs 0 0 0
It wasn’t uncommon to hear the words “bust candidate” surrounding the name Doug Baldwin last summer. He was coming off of his breakout 2015 season in which he led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns. Quarterback Russell Wilson had been looking for a go-to receiver since he joined the league in 2012, and people were skeptical that Baldwin was that guy. While Baldwin only caught half as many TDs in 2016, he did improve nearly every other facet, which makes his outlook for 2017 easier to swallow. Just one other WR with at least 90 catches had a higher percentage of targets caught than Baldwin’s 75.2% last season. Also, there were just four other wideouts with more big receiving plays of 25 yards or more than Baldwin’s 13. Tons of catches and big-play potential spells fantasy success. Even better, the Seahawks have the most favorable strength of schedule for wide receivers in 2017, so he should be able to follow up on 2016 with another stellar season. Things are looking up in the Great Northwest! (DG)
15
Allen Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars 6’3, 215lbs, b:August 24, 1993
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team JAX JAX JAX Jax
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 71 48 548 2 4 80 1400 14 32 73 883 6 15 81 1030 8
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Allen Robinson burst in 2015 in his second NFL season posting top-five wide receiver numbers. Robinson was hyped all the way into the first round in most 2016 fantasy drafts, but it was pretty easy to project a significant decline from his 2015 numbers. Averaging 17.5 yards-per-catch and scoring 14 touchdowns, as Robinson did in 2015, would be tough to match in 2016. So while Robinson was far from terrible in 2016, he appeared that way given the unreasonable expectations and where he was drafted. The addition of Leonard Fournette and the emphasis on the running game should actually help
Robinson as opposing defenses will be forced to defend the Jaguars running game. That was not the case in 2015 as there was little between T.J. Yeldon or Chris Ivory that scared opposing defenses. There is a good chance that Robinson drops into the third round on the perception that his 2016 season was really bad. In that area, Robinson provides a high ceiling with a high floor. (MM)
16
Davante Adams
Green Bay Packers
6’1, 215lbs, b:December 24, 1992
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team GB GB GB GB
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 78 38 446 3 78 50 483 1 28 75 997 12 16 66 870 12
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
His totally unexpected breakout last season gave Bears fans yet another reason to be jealous of the Packers. Thanks to some surprisingly impressive scoring prowess, Adams finished as the seventhbest fantasy wideout in non-PPR formats and as the ninth-rated fantasy wideout in one-point PPR leagues. The dozen scoring grabs tripled his previous career high of four and tied for second most in the NFL. Only teammate Jordy Nelson visited the end zone more times, and Nelson out-targeted him 152 to 121. The 121 ranked 23rd among all NFL wideouts. Adams’ weekly reception and yardage numbers, however, were peaks and valleys. He finished just 28th (tie) among NFL wideouts in catches and 26th in yardage. The seasoned Adams, entering his age-24 season, is playing with more confidence than ever and looks primed for another leap forward. The Packers use three wideouts in their base offense, but Adams clearly has supplanted the declining-for-whateverreason Randall Cobb as the second option in their prolific aerial attack and has clearly earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers—especially in the red zone. There’s no reason to think Adams won’t continue to score at a high level, and small upticks in his catches and receiving yards are likely. Green Bay’s passing game always flows through the wideouts, so the addition of Martellus Bennett shouldn’t impact the scoring-dependent Adams’ production. (MW)
17
Jarvis Landry Miami Dolphins
5’11, 202lbs, b:November 28, 1992 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIA MIA MIA Mia
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 50 84 758 5 15 110 1157 4 8 94 1136 4 17 88 1050 5
ATTs 2 18 5
RUSHING YDs -4 113 17
TDs 0 1 0
Jarvis Landry is the perfect example of a possession receiver. Only three players have caught more passes during his three years in the NFL, yet only eight of those catches came on passes that traveled more than twenty yards in the air, accounting for just three percent of his total receptions. Landry is an extremely productive receiver out of the slot, annually ranking among the league leaders in catches and yardage from that position, yet he lacks the size or speed to be as effective in other areas of the field. While the Dolphins have made statements at various points about expanding his role, the reality is that he is best suited for short passes where he can use his quickness to gain a step on the defender, and the team has other wideouts to challenge the coverage downfield. The nature of his use means that he is most useful in points per receptions leagues, and that he is unlikely to register strong touchdown totals, making him a safe option but one that lacks upside. (JDB)
18
Sammy Watkins
Buffalo Bills
6’1, 211lbs, b:June 14, 1993
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team BUF BUF BUF Buf
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 25 65 982 6 16 60 1047 9 163 28 430 2 18 72 1080 7
ATTs 2 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 8 0 1 0
The career of Sammy Watkins has been filled with big plays and plenty of injuries. The problems continued in 2016 as he missed most of the season’s first two months. He managed to return in late-November to play the final six games of the year
Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
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including a seven-catch, 154-yard effort against the Miami Dolphins. But the health worries outshine every other part of Watkins’ profile. During his last two years, Watkins has missed 11 games. His inability to stay on the field has caused Buffalo to decline Watkins’ contract option for 2018, which means he will likely become a free agent. That could motivate the former Clemson Tiger to produce a big comeback season. When Watkins is on the field, he is a dangerous option in Buffalo. Yet, the mix of spotty quarterback play from Tyrod Taylor, a new coaching staff that is a run-oriented group, and Watkins’s injury history, makes him a tricky proposition. Fantasy owners that hop on the Watkins bandwagon better have an immediate contingency plan if injury strikes again. (DJ)
19
Alshon Jeffery
Philadelphia Eagles
6’3, 216lbs, b:February 14, 1990 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 CHI 12 85 1133 10 2015 CHI 41 54 807 4 2016 CHI 2017 Phi
80 19
52 75
821 1150
ATTs 6 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 33 0 0 0
2 5
There is no denying the talent level of Alshon Jeffery. If the crystal ball shows him playing 14-16 games in 2017 then he is second round draft material, ranking somewhere between 6th and 10th among wide receivers. After playing every game in 2013 and 2014, Jeffery has played in only 21 games over the past two seasons. Hamstring and knee injuries coupled with a four-game PED suspension dogged Jeffery in 2015 and 2016. Ranking Jeffery in this 17-21 range is almost a hedged bet. If he is healthy like 2013 and 2014 then he easily beats this ranking. If he is unhealthy like 2015 and 2016 then Jeffery will barely crack the top 50. Switching teams doesn’t matter. The weather does not really matter. The only thing that matters with Jeffery is whether he will be healthy or not in 2017. (MM)
20
Golden Tate
Detroit Lions
5’10, 202lbs, b:August 2, 1988
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 DET 13 99 1331 4 2015 DET 32 90 813 6 2016 DET 11 91 1077 4 2017 Det 20 80 960 6
RUSHING ATTs YDs 5 30 6 41 10 4
TDs 0 0 0
Following the retirement of Calvin Johnson, there was some expectation that Golden Tate would be asked to take on a larger role with Detroit. That hope made his slow start all the more disappointing, as he averaged just twenty-seven yards over the season’s first five games. From that point, however, Tate went back to his highly productive self on the way to his second thousand yard campaign in three years with the Lions. Given how rarely Golden is targeted downfield, it would be fair to describe him as a possession receiver aside from one important difference: he is incredibly elusive after making a reception, annually ranking among the best in the league in yards after the catch. Most dangerous on screen passes where he uses his vision and patience to set up blocks, Tate consistently shows the balance to stay upright through contact and the ability to find open space. Unfortunately those routes rarely result in touchdowns. (JDB)
21
Kelvin Benjamin 6’5, 245lbs, b:February 5, 1991
Year 2014 2016 2017
Team CAR CAR Car
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 16 73 1008 9 51 63 941 7 21 69 1020 6
ATTs 0
22
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0
Larry Fitzgerald
Arizona Cardinals
6’3, 225lbs, b:August 31, 1983
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team ARI ARI ARI Ari
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 56 63 784 2 11 109 1215 9 1 107 1023 6 22 79 950 5
ATTs 0 0 2
Michael Crabtree Oakland Raiders
6’1, 214lbs, b:September 14, 1987
As a rookie in 2014, Benjamin was not just thrust into a starting role with Carolina, but basically the only go-to option on an offense starved for talent outside of quarterback Cam Newton. Benjamin missed his sophomore season with an ACL tear but predictably saw his targets drop last season. Carolina added Devin Funchess previous to this season and then went ahead and selected Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel in the first two rounds of the 2017 draft. McCaffrey was considered the best receiving back in the draft and Samuel is an intriguing second round wide receiver prospect. Basically, Benjamin won’t get to 150 targets like he did in 2014 unless something goes horribly wrong. But that’s ok, because it’s keeping Benjamin’s value down and his efficiency did improve last year. As a weak second receiver or strong third (or flex) play, Benjamin has some fun upside. He’s still a grand red-zone target at 6-5 and seems primed for his first double digit touchdown season. Newton is always a wildcard in the redzone, but the Panthers have to hope he’ll take fewer hits this season and that would be great news for Benjamin. (AG)
RUSHING YDs 0 0 5
TDs 0 0 0
There are indicators that Fitzgerald is going to retire from the NFL after this season, which means this could be his farewell tour. Fantasy football owners should wear black armbands if he does leave the game, considering he has missed just six games in his 13-year career, with 216 receptions over the past two years combined. The Cardinals offense leans more on the running game to set up the passing game now, which is different from much of Fitzgerald’s career, but he’s also benefitting from less attention and more plays from scrimmage. He led the league in receptions last season (107), although he posted just three big receiving plays over 25 yards. His yards per catch continue to dip as he ages, but his high volume of catches means fantasy owners will get what they paid for. (DG)
MARC MELTZER’S CHALLENGE: Favorable - I remember before the 2015 fantasy draft season, I was telling a friend of mine that I believed that Larry Fitzgerald was done. Now here we are entering the 2017 fantasy draft season, Fitzgerald will be 34 years old and he is coming off back-to-back 100+ catch seasons. Fitzgerald has only missed three games in the past ten seasons. While I have Fitzgerald only five spots higher than the magazine, I would rather have the reliable Fitzgerald than Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry, Kelvin Benjamin, and Golden Tate.
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23
Carolina Panthers
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team SF OAK OAK Oak
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 53 68 698 4 19 85 922 9 13 89 1003 8 23 74 850 7
ATTs 1 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 4 0 0 0
Racking up remarkably consistent numbers two years in a row, Crabtree has emerged as one of the NFL’s best possession wideouts in a high-powered Raiders passing attack but remains one of the most underrated fantasy options at the position. Finishing 17th and 9th in fantasy PPR scoring the last two years, he has out-targeted talented wingman Amari Cooper two seasons in a row by counts of 146 to 130 and 145 to 132, respectively. Crabtree lacks big-play ability and makes his living with chain-moving grabs. Thanks to his great chemistry with Derek Carr, Crabtree also has outscored Cooper in that same timeframe, 17 to 11. However, as Crabtree enters his age-30 season, there are two reasons why he’s likely due for a small drop in targets and a slight production decline. New Oakland offensive coordinator Todd Downing will keep the current playbook, but he’s determined to get more consistent production out of the talented Cooper, who has become notorious for late-season fades. He’s a candidate for a “magical” third-year breakout. The addition of Jared Cook also gives the Raiders a capable tight end for the first time since Crabtree showed up two years ago. He’s a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy wideout, and Crabtree likely will be undervalued yet again. (MW)
Solid 24
Terrelle Pryor Washington
6’4, 223lbs, b:June 20, 1989 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team CLE CLE Was
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 175 1 42 0 27 77 1007 4 24 72 920 6
ATTs 1 8
RUSHING YDs TDs -1 0 21 1
In his first season as a wide receiver, Pryor posed as one of the biggest threats for a lethargic Cleveland Browns offense. The six-year veteran caught 77 passes for 1,007 yards last year, which helped him finish 15th among fantasy receivers in standard scoring. Pryor parlayed his success in Cleveland to joining Washington. Instead of Cleveland’s annual quarterback carousel, Pryor will catch passes from Kirk Cousins, one of the NFL’s most prolific passers. With Washington losing DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Pryor steps in as the team’s top receiver. His 6’4 frame should help out in the red zone, which was a trouble spot for the team in 2016. Expect Pryor to produce similar numbers if not better than a season ago. He should be a great fit into the Washington system. Pryor could be a strong number two option, if not eventually a top-line fantasy receiver. (DJ)
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POSITION RANKING 25
Brandon Marshall
New York Giants
6’4, 230lbs, b:March 23, 1984
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CHI NYJ NYJ NYG
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 35 61 721 8 3 109 1502 14 58 59 788 3 25 71 860 7
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Marshall is making the tumultuous move from New York to New York this offseason and his 2017 prospects are looking up slightly. Going from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Eli Manning is kind of like going from Popov’s vodka to, let’s say, Smirnoff. It’s a gain anyway. Marshall has never really been the second banana in his team’s receiving game before, so it will be interesting to see how he pairs with Odell Beckham Jr. Marshall still finished top 20 in targets last year, so a drop there will take a toll on his final numbers. The obvious hope is that the more able Giant offense improves Marshall’s impact per touch. With his size, there’s no reason Marshall can’t carve out a niche role as the team’s primary red zone option. That would allow him to easily live up to this value. (AG)
26
Julian Edelman
New England Patriots
5’10, 200lbs, b:May 22, 1986 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 NE 26 92 972 4 2015 NE 37 61 692 7 2016 NE 4 98 1106 3 2017 NE 26 84 900 4
RUSHING ATTs YDs 10 94 3 23 12 57
TDs 0 0 0
Surprise, surprise. Once again, the New England Patriots will bring a stacked offense into another NFL campaign. Edelman will be joined by new acquisition Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, second-year receiver Malcolm Mitchell, Danny Amendola and of course, the great Rob Gronkowski. That’s a lot of mouths to feed for Tom Brady, right? And that is where the fantasy story of Edelman should begin. The former Kent State quarterback caught at least 90 passes over three of the past four seasons. The lone season he didn’t reach that feat came in 2015 when he missed seven games because of a broken foot. Despite the amount of weapons in New England, don’t expect a sizable drop in his numbers. The Patriots having an explosive offense isn’t an uncommon occurrence. It’s as sure of a thing in professional sports at the moment. Expect Edelman to hover around 80-90 receptions with considerably more value in PPR leagues as a number two fantasy receiver. (DJ)
27
Emmanuel Sanders
Denver Broncos
5’11, 180lbs, b:March 17, 1987
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DEN DEN DEN Den
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 7 101 1404 9 18 76 1135 6 23 79 1032 5 28 70 920 5
ATTs 8 3 1
RUSHING YDs 44 29 4
TDs 0 0 0
Even though Emmanuel Sanders is one of only eight players who have topped one thousand receiving yards in each of the last three seasons, he doesn’t seem to get much respect. He isn’t exceptionally fast
or overwhelmingly physical, and while he is capable of the occasional huge performance, his best attribute is his dependability. Week in and week out, Sanders is good for a handful of catches and respectable yardage. The last two years produced more modest totals than his career year in 2014, but interestingly it has not been due to a decrease in targets, as his numbers there have remained consistent. Instead, subpar quarterback play has prevented Emmanuel from capitalizing on as many of those opportunities, leading to a relatively poor catch rate. Improvement behind center would likely mean improved numbers for Sanders. (JDB)
28
Tyreek Hill
K ansas City Chiefs
5’10, 185lbs, b:March 1, 1994 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 KAN 54 61 593 6 2017 KC 30 52 580 5
ATTs 24
RUSHING YDs TDs 267 3 300 3
Tyreek Hill was in line to be an All-American candidate and potential high draft choice until he plead guilty to domestic assault and was kicked out of Oklahoma State in 2014. Hill emerged at West Alabama, and in spite of many NFL teams pulling him off of their board, the Chiefs selected Hill with a 5th round pick. Hill excelled as an NFL rookie in 2016 starting primarily as a kick returner, but it didn’t take very long for Andy Reid to look for creative ways to get Hill touches. Now with the release of Jeremy Maclin, Hill becomes the defacto top wide out in a system that, ok, still isn’t built for wide outs. But the target share is bound to increase and it is exciting from a fantasy perspective to know that any separation will allow Hill to take it to the house. (MM)
29
Willie Snead
New Orleans Saints
5’11, 195lbs, b:October 17, 1992 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team NO NO NO
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 35 69 984 3 33 72 895 4 29 71 890 5
ATTs 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0
With only seven scoring grabs and two 100-yard games on his NFL résumé, Snead definitely isn’t a flashy big-play specialist, but he’s a steady No. 2 option in one of the league’s most pass-happy offenses. Last season Snead missed one game and was slowed in a few others because of a bum toe, but the sure-handed wideout pretty much matched his 2015 numbers. By the way, Snead was targeted 96 times and 95 times, respectively, during the last two seasons. How’s that for steady? Does the departure of 1,000-yard receiver Brandin Cooks have you feeling the need for Snead on your fantasy team? An uptick in Snead’s targets and production is guaranteed. With Michael Thomas operating as the lead wideout, Snead also will draw more favorable coverage. However, don’t go overboard with expectations. As mentioned, Snead isn’t a dynamic playmaker. Capable new deep-threat Ted Ginn isn’t going to steal all of Cooks’ 117 targets (28th-most among wideouts) from 2016, but Ginn won’t be invisible, either. Draft Snead as a high-floor second or, ideally, third fantasy receiver with modest upside. (MW)
30
Stefon Diggs
Minnesota Vikings
6’0, 195lbs, b:February 10, 1994 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team MIN MIN Min
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 46 52 720 4 16 84 903 3 31 78 840 4
ATTs 3 3
RUSHING YDs TDs 13 0 10 0
While Diggs nearly topped 1,000 yards receiving last season and caught 84 passes, it still feels like he left a little on the table. Injuries caused the third-year receiver to miss three games and thus, cut into the best season of his young career. Entering 2017, Diggs must shake off the injury bug (he also missed three games during his rookie season) and prove to be a reliable scoring threat. Even though Diggs caught 84 passes, he only hauled in three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Vikings offense will be in a state of transition again. Adrian Peterson’s departure could mean a more sizable shift in philosophy to the passing attack. Elsewhere, teammates Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, and new addition Michael Floyd will be among those vying for quarterback Sam Bradford’s pass-throwing attention. Diggs must avoid the injury bug to take a leap in his third year. Consider him a second or third-string fantasy wideout. (DJ)
31
Donte Moncrief Indianapolis Colts
6’2, 222lbs, b:August 6, 1993 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team IND IND IND Ind
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 76 32 444 3 38 64 733 6 152 30 307 7 32 59 660 10
ATTs 4 0 1
RUSHING YDs 17 0 -1
TDs 0 0 0
Donte Moncrief was poised for a superstar 2016 season before injuries derailed the season. Moncrief essentially doubled his rookie numbers on 2015 finishing with 64 receptions. After a strong first game in 2016, Moncrief suffered a fractured scapula (shoulder) in week two then a hamstring injury in week 16. All-in-all, Moncrief was limited to nine games. Moncrief’s knack for finding the end zone after was apparent after scoring seven times on only 30 catches in 2016 giving him 16 touchdowns on 126 career receptions. (MM)
32
Quincy Enunwa
N.Y. Jets
6’2, 225lbs, b:May 31, 1992
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team NYJ NYJ NYJ
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 106 22 315 0 61 58 857 4 61 67 850 5
ATTs 0 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 12 0
N.Y. Jets – Enunwa dealt with a difficult situation last year as the Jets passing offense was one of the most erratic units in the NFL. Enunwa was one of the team’s few bright spots, though, leading the team in receiving yards, even with a healthy Brandon Marshall on the field. For 2017 he is in line to be the Jets top receiver thanks to the untimely departure of Eric Decker. Enunwa is a rapidly waking sleeper at this point. In other words, by draft day, his value could very well be approximately what it should be. Enunwa isn’t a household name, but he showed last season that he can break tackles and pick up yards after the catch, which will greatly
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endear him to new Jets Offensive Coordinator John Morton. He seems like a lock to improve on his targets, yardage, touchdowns, and fantasy value from 2016, which makes him an intriguing third receiver or flex option. (DG)
ANDY GOLDSTEIN’S CHALLENGE:
Favorable - Before the Decker release, Enunwa was criminally underrated. Even now, Enunwa isn’t getting the respect he deserves. This is mainly because the Jets are absolutely putrid and only the most hardcore of Jets fans (and fantasy football junkies) watched Fitzpatrick and the gang attempt to play the sport last year. But for those who did watch, Enunwa flashed. He made plays after the catch. He hauled in passes along the sideline over defenders. He basically was the offense’s lone bright spot. His numbers last season weren’t eye-popping, but they were accrued with only about 100 targets. That number will go up and has a chance to go up significantly. Enunwa is about the safest lock of any receiver to cross 1,000 yards this year of the group that didn’t do it last year. (AG)
33
Keenan Allen
Los Angeles Chargers
6’2, 211lbs, b:April 27, 1992 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team SD SD SD LAC
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 49 77 783 4 47 67 725 4 320 6 63 0 33 70 770 6
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
It’s suddenly very crowded in the San Diego offense, but Allen’s talent level isn’t really in question here. If he plays 16 games, Allen is easily a game-changing, top-10 receiver. Last year, Allen tore his ACL in Week 1 and missed the rest of the season. In the first half of the 2015 season, Allen smashed the league with 90 yards per game, but suffered a lacerated kidney, which cost him the second half of the season. All told, Allen has not played a full 16 game season in his four years, missing 27 games in that span. So, yeah, the talent is there. The situation is fine. The health risk is level red to the point that trusting Allen as a starter is treacherous business. (AG)
DAVID GONOS’S CHALLENGE:
Favorable - Understandably, there are plenty of reasons to downgrade Allen’s fantasy value entering draft season, considering he lost 2016 to a torn ACL, the ascension of Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon III in the passing game, and the drafting of star Clemson WR Mike Williams. As far as the knee injury, we know how Jordy Nelson’s return from his 2015 torn ACL went (he led all WRs in fantasy points). None of the Chargers WRs mentioned, including Williams, has Allen’s rapport with Rivers and the ability to beat defenders when healthy. In 2015, Allen was on pace stat-wise with Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. before a lacerated kidney ended his season early. With 27 missed games in his four-year career, Allen might not be an iron man, but if he was, he’d be an unquestioned WR1. Williams could very well take over as the top receiver on this team, but that’s years away, and I’m totally fine with Allen as my WR2. I completely understand people remaining leery of an injury-risk as their WR1, but the upside is too great for me, and his injuries/potential are quite different than someone like Sammy Watkins.
34
Corey Davis
Tennessee Titans
6’2, 205lbs, b:January 11, 1995 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Ten 34 62 780 7
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Four productive years at Western Michigan established Corey Davis as the NCAA FBS all-time leader in career receiving yards, and his strong numbers against Big Ten opponents proved that he was not simply a small conference success. Davis has loose hips that allow him to cut smoothly into and out of breaks, then elude defenders after the catch. He moves like a smaller receiver while also having the size to shield cornerbacks or go over them in jump ball situations. His long strides and the way he varies his speed keep defenders off balance and allow him to create separation at the top of his routes. Corey’s polish and Tennessee’s need for a primary wideout make him a strong bet to lead all rookies in receiving. (JDB)
35
Jordan Matthews
Philadelphia Eagles S6’3, 212lbs, b:July 16, 1992
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team PHI PHI PHI Phi
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 24 67 872 8 20 85 997 8 31 73 804 3 35 72 850 4
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
The talented slot wideout took a step backwards last season mainly because he was badly miscast as the No. 1 option in a very thin receiver corps. With the emergence of Zach Ertz (he topped the Eagles in receiving across the board in 2016) and the additions of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith, Matthews obviously will face far more competition for targets. However, don’t totally write him off. Jeffrey is Philadelphia’s lead wideout now, but his injury history (11 missed games in the last two years) is dicey. Can Jeffrey stay healthy? Smith is primarily a lid lifter, though you wouldn’t know it from his sub-par play with the 49ers during the last two seasons. Can Smith recapture his productive Ravens form from three-plus seasons ago? If either Jeffrey or Smith struggles for whatever reason, Matthews, a Carson Wentz favorite, will pick up the slack. If Jeffery, Smith, Ertz and Matthews all stay healthy, the targets probably will be distributed equally among the four. Matthews is safer to draft as a fantasy backup. (MW)
36
DeSean Jackson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5’10, 178lbs, b:December 1, 1986
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team WAS WAS WAS TB
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 17 56 1169 6 60 30 528 4 66 56 1005 4 36 53 950 5
ATTs 4 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 7 0 0 0
Very few NFL players can match Jackson’s speed, and now he’s joining a Buccaneers team with a cannon-armed quarterback and a superstar receiver pulling the best coverage away from Jackson’s side. However, from a fantasy perspective, Jackson leaves the second-best passing offense in the NFL in 2016 for a middle-of-the-pack passing team. Jackson’s speed should really open up opportunities for Jameis Winston downfield, and for Mike Evans on the other side. With Evans instead of Washington’s Pierre Garcon as his counterpart, Jackson should see a lot more space on his routes. The Bucs don’t throw deep a lot, but that should change in 2017, especially if their running game struggles out of the gate. (DG)
37
Mike Wallace
Baltimore Ravens
Photo: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
6’0, 199lbs, b:August 1, 1986 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Julio Jones #4
FFG17_43-67_position_WR_v6.indd 49
Team MIA MIN BAL Bal
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 18 67 862 10 75 39 473 2 34 72 1017 4 37 59 820 6
ATTs 4 1 5
RUSHING YDs 16 6 31
TDs 0 0 0
The NFL tracks in game speed with high-tech gadgets. This is relevant because 30 year old, 8-year-vet Mike Wallace had one of the fastest recorded top speeds from last season. So, it’s safe to say he’s not exactly slowing down yet. Wallace had his first position ranking | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | 49
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WR
POSITION RANKING
1,000 yard year since 2011 and was generally a nice surprise at the position. Touchdowns, of course, were a different story. Wallace didn’t score over the final eight games and only got into the end zone four times overall. Clearly, teams were very worried about Wallace achieving that top speed. Baltimore didn’t bring in any skill position players through the draft and while Danny Woodhead might steal some receptions, it shouldn’t change Wallace’s target share all that much. Basically, Wallace is a nice bye-week play who can get the occasional long touchdown still. He’s one of the safer backup options heading into 2017. (AG)
38
Jamison Crowder
Washington
5’9, 174lbs, b:June 17, 1993
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team WAS WAS Was
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 61 59 604 2 41 67 847 7 38 60 740 7
ATTs 2 2
RUSHING YDs TDs 2 0 -2 0
Quickly developing into one of the NFL’s better slot wideouts and flashing some rock-solid chemistry with Kirk Cousins, Crowder took a nice step forward during his sophomore campaign. Despite a late-season fade due to playing through a painful hip pointer, Crowder still topped pass-heavy Washington in scoring grabs, finished second in catches and finished third in receiving yards. Crowder looks primed for a “magical” third-year breakout as the favorite to lead Washington’s retooled receiver corps in catches. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, who were both 1,000-yard receivers last season, departed in free agency. Jackson’s replacement, Terrelle Pryor, a converted college quarterback, is athletic but miscast as a No. 1 wideout. Josh Doctson, who missed 14 games during his 2016 rookie season due to an Achilles’ tendon issue, will try to replace Garcon. Since Pryor and the talented-but-inexperienced Doctson are both downgrades, look for Cousins to lean more heavily on Crowder. If injury-prone Jordan Reed either goes down with an injury or plays at less than 100 percent, Crowder becomes even more important. He’s a fantasy flex play with sneaky upside. (MW)
39
Randall Cobb
Team GB GB GB GB
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 6 91 1287 12 31 79 829 6 55 60 610 4 39 67 770 5
ATTs 11 13 10
Corey Coleman
43
Cleveland Browns
5’11, 194lbs, b:July 6, 1994 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 CLE 134 33 413 3 2017 Cle 40 61 800 5
ATTs 2
RUSHING YDs TDs 10 0
HIs rookie year began in promising fashion, with one solid and one spectacular performance in his first two games. A broken finger cost him the next six weeks and appeared to hamper him throughout the remainder of the season. His exceptional speed makes it difficult for cornerbacks to stay with him on vertical routes, and makes him a dangerous threat after the catch. The Browns have said they intend for him to be the focus of the team’s passing attack, but the winner of the team’s quarterback competition is likely to influence his production. His deep speed fits better with Osweiler’s arm than Kessler’s preference for short passes. (JDB)
41
Martavis Bryant Pittsburgh Steelers
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 3 12 0 5 37 1
After being banned from NFL activities for more than 400 days, Bryant returns to the Steelers with an opportunity to regain some of the promise and luster he displayed prior to his suspension. He will have to work himself back into game shape, of course, and then win his job back, likely battling with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Sammie Coates for a starting role. Should he regain his usual spot, Bryant could help Pittsburgh establish themselves again as one of the league’s most dangerous passing units. When we last saw Bryant in 2015, he hauled 50 passes including six touchdowns. Assuming he rounds back into game shape, Bryant could be a good value pick in late rounds. (DJ)
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Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team WAS WAS WAS SF
John Brown
RUSHING YDs 37 50 33
TDs 0 0 0
Hamstring and ankle injuries hampered Randall Cobb for the second half of the 2016 season. After Cobb caught 39 passes for 388 yards in the first six games of the 2016 season he only had 21 catches for 222 yards in the other seven games he played. Cobb did catch 18 passes in three playoff games including three touchdowns in the game against the Giants. Cobb enters the season as the Packers number three receiver behind Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. He can still accumulate good statistics in the Packers offense if he can stay healthy, but he is unlikely to ever repeat 2014’s season of 91 catches and 12 touchdowns. (MM)
RUSHING ATTs YDs 3 -6 3 22 1 10
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 55 68 752 3 36 72 777 6 22 79 1041 3 43 58 760 5
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Sterling Shepard New York Giants
5’10, 194lbs, b:February 10, 1994 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 NYG 47 65 683 8 2017 NYG 44 57 630 7
ATTs 3
RUSHING YDs TDs 31 0
Through the first three weeks of the 2016 season, Shepard looked like his was living up to his preseason hype. He had 233 yards and two scores opposite the All-World Odell Beckham Jr. Unfortunately, Shepard’s season diverted towards a path of inconsistency. He’d flash his potential throughout the year. He scored in 6 out of the last 9 games, but his reception and yardage totals were more of a fantasy whisper. And in the offseason, New York went ahead and acquired Brandon Marshall, a more prototypical outside red zone target. That leaves Shepard with the slot role, but targets are going to be at a premium. (AG)
45
Arizona Cardinals
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 ARI 48 48 696 5 2015 ARI 21 65 1003 7 2016 ARI 114 39 517 2 2017 Ari 42 64 830 3
San Francisco 49ers
Not much was expected from Garcon when the Colts used a sixth round draft choice in 2008 to take him out of Mount Union. Now Garcon is entering his 10th season with a rebuilding 49ers team after a strong run with Washington, where he caught 332 passes for almost 4,000 yards in the past four seasons. Those worried about him catching passes from Hoyer or Barkley should not be. Garcon’s best season came in 2013 when he caught 113 passes from RGIII after catching 70 passes from Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky in 2011. (MM)
44
6’5, 201lbs, b:December 20, 1991 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 PIT 43 26 549 8 2015 PIT 34 50 765 6 2017 Pit 41 51 820 6
Pierre Garcon 6’0, 216lbs, b:August 8, 1985
Cameron Meredith
Chicago Bears
6’3, 201lbs, b:September 21, 1992
5’11, 179lbs, b:April 3, 1990
Green Bay Packers
5’10, 192lbs, b:August 22, 1990 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
40
TDs 0 0 0
After a breakout 2015 season, a lot was expected from Brown in 2016, especially with a healthy Carson Palmer returning to lead the offense. While being treated for Brown’s sickle cell trait last year, doctors found a growing cyst on his spine, which helped drain his energy, along with his disease. The cyst has since been surgically removed, and things are looking great for Brown—and his fantasy owners—once again in 2017. Considering the disappointing Michael Floyd is now with the Vikings, and future Hall-of-Famer Larry Fitzgerald turns 34 years old just before the season starts, Brown stands to become one of the best rebound candidates in fantasy football. He’ll get drafted among the backups, but he has starter potential. (DG)
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team CHI CHI Chi
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 150 11 120 0 43 66 888 4 45 56 750 5
ATTs 0 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 6 0
HE WAS a converted quarterback with only two years of receiving experience at an FCS school with a run-oriented offense, and was supposed to be a long-term project the Bears only signed as an undrafted free agent due to his combination of size and speed. Yet when injuries moved him into the starting lineup last season, he went on to lead the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. His raw skills may hold him back at times, but Meredith is a legitimate NFL talent who could take another step forward this season with improved quarterback play. (JDB)
50 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | position ranking
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Keep An Eye On 46
Tyrell Williams
Los Angeles Chargers 6’4, 205lbs, b:Februrary 12, 1992
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2015 SD 139 2 90 1 2016 SD 37 69 1059 7 2017 LAC 46 52 780 5
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 0 0 0
Williams posted the best season of his young career in 2016 even though teammate Keenan Allen missed nearly the entire season with an injury. With Allen’s return, the third-year wideout’s targets could see a drop. Last season, Philip Rivers targeted Williams 126 times. With Allen back and first-round draft pick Mike Williams in the mix, that number is very likely to diminish. Proceed with caution. (DJ)
47
Mike Williams
LOS ANGELES Chargers
6’3, 205lbs, g:October 4, 1994 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 LAC 47 50 700 6
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs
One problem for great college wide receivers is they often end up on an offensively challenged NFL offense. But in Williams’ case, one of the most exciting college receivers at Clemson ended up joining a high-powered offense in San Diego with an above-average quarterback under center. Unfortunately, the Chargers have too many passing options and Williams is battling a herniated disc in his back. Assuming he gets healthy, he’ll battle three other receivers, two quality tight ends and a running back who could catch 50 passes. (DG)
48
Devante Parker
Miami Dolphins
6’3, 218lbs, B:January 20, 1993
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team MIA MIA Mia
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 66 26 494 3 67 56 744 4 48 56 740 4
ATTs 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0
Despite the sophomore season production uptick, Parker remained inconsistent while playing through nagging injuries for the second year in a row. According to media reports, a completely healthy and “more mature” Parker has re-committed himself to offseason conditioning and is “hungry” to perform better. Slot guy Jarvis Landry remains the alpha in the Dolphins receiver corps, but Miami hopes the athletically gifted Parker finally will emerge as a dominant outside threat. Will he put it all together? Consider Parker a high-risk/high-reward fantasy depth piece. (MW)
49
Marvin Jones
Detroit Lions
6’2, 198lbs, b:March 12, 1990
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2015 CIN 39 65 816 4 2016 DET 71 55 930 4 2017 Det 49 47 790 4
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 5 33 0 1 3 0
Marvin Jones came over to the Lions after three seasons in
Cincinnati and appeared to be on the verge of stardom after a 65 catch season in 2015. Those who drafted Jones in 2016 fantasy leagues thought they were going to be rewarded after four games when Jones had 23 receptions, 482 receiving yards and four touchdowns. But then disappointment set in as he only caught 32 more passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns over the next 11 games. Jones is still in line for a steady workload in Detroit, but the 2016 inconsistency will make people think long and hard about rostering him. (MM)
50
Rishard Matthews
Tennessee Titans
6’0, 217lbs, b:October 12, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIA MIA TEN Ten
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 120 12 135 2 49 43 662 4 46 65 945 9 50 46 670 6
RUSHING YDs TDs 3 0 4 0
Starting just nine games, the underrated playmaker topped Tennessee with career-high production across the board during a surprising 2016 breakout campaign. Matthews also supplanted Delanie Walker as the team’s most targeted receiving option. Operating in a more crowded receiver corps, Matthews will be hard pressed to duplicate his numbers and some regression seems likely. However, if rookie fifth overall pick Corey Davis struggles with the playbook and/or his surgically repaired ankle, Matthews will pick up the slack and out-produce this ranking. (MW)
51
Adam Thielen
Minnesota Vikings
6’2, 200lbs, b:August 22, 1990
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIN MIN MIN Min
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 132 8 137 1 124 12 144 0 36 69 967 5 51 47 640 6
ATTs 0 4 2
RUSHING YDs 0 89 15
TDs 0 0 0
Two unproductive seasons by Thielen were followed by a breakout campaign in 2016 that led the receiver to getting a new contract. He finished 2016 with 969 yards and five touchdowns. The fourth-year wideout will be the number two receiver in Minnesota opposite Stefon Diggs. His new deal worth $19 million should provide plenty of job security. Despite his bump in pay, Thielen is a number three or four fantasy receiver. (DJ)
52
Kenny Britt
Cleveland Browns
6’3, 215lbs, b:September 19, 1988 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team STL STL LAR Cle
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 52 48 748 3 51 36 681 3 39 68 1002 5 52 33 470 5
ATTs 2 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 14 0 0 0
53
Zay Jones (R)
Buffalo Bills
6’2, 201lbs, b:March 30, 1995
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Buf 53 54 640 4
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Jones has the hands, body control, and after-the-catch ability to be an elite playmaker. His speed is not his strongest suit, but it’s good enough for the pro level. He comes into the league as a bit of a toothpick, so he bulking up without losing speed is a key. If he can carve out a starting role, which appears doable at this stage, Jones has intriguing fantasy upside. He also needs to stay healthy, obviously, and an OTA knee injury doesn’t help instill confidence about that. Still, Sammy Watkins will keep the pressure off on the other side, so watch how Jones progresses as the preseason wears on. (AG)
54
Breshad Perriman
Baltimore Ravens
6’2, 218lbs, b:September 10, 1993
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 BAL 138 33 499 3 2017 Bal 54 48 750 3
ATTs 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 2 0
With Steve Smith officially retired, Perriman steps into the Ravens’ starting lineup in his third NFL season, and a lot is expected out of him. He was an NFL first-rounder in 2015 because he had good size (6-foot-2) and elite speed, but injuries derailed his development. The best number to consider from 2016 with Perriman was his 15.1 yards per catch in an offense that really doesn’t throw deep much. The Ravens threw the ball an NFL-high 42.4 times per game last season, and Perriman is a very good post-hype fantasy sleeper for 2017. (DG)
55
Eric Decker
Free AGENT
6’3, 214lbs, b:March 15, 1987
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team NYJ NYJ NYJ
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 29 74 962 5 10 80 1027 12 283 9 194 2 27 67 820 8
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
THERE’S A LOT GOING ON FOR Decker off the field, including hip and shoulder surgeries, as well as being cut by the Jets. Decker participated in offseason team activities for the Jets in May, and would have lined up as the team’s No. 1 receiver if he stayed put. Decker was very successful as a third receiver in Denver and a second receiver in New York. The 30 year old Decker has been an excellent red-zone receiver and could still land in a favorable fantasy situation. (DG)
Kenny Britt’s size has long tantalized both NFL teams and fantasy owners, but it took eight years before he posted a one thousand yard season. Some of that was due to poor quarterback play, an issue likely to continue in Cleveland, yet Britt is also an unrefined route runner who gives inconsistent effort. The combination of a poor
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ATTs 1 1
running game, a lack of established receivers, and a team frequently trailing provides him an opportunity to match last season’s breakout. (JDB)
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WR
POSITION RANKING
56
Tyler Lockett
Seattle Seahawks
5’10, 182lbs, b:September 28, 1992
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team SEA SEA Sea
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 43 51 664 6 108 41 597 1 55 42 600 3
ATTs 5 6
RUSHING YDs 20 114 100
TDs 0 1 1
After a good 2015 rookie season, he was slow to recover from a week two knee sprain in 2016. He was an excellent weapon for Russell Wilson in the second half until he suffered a compound fracture of the fibula and tibia in week 16. While Lockett is expected to be ready by training camp, keep an eye on his rehab. He has the chance to become a significant player in the Seahawks offense. (MM)
57
Kenny Stills Miami Dolphins
6’1, 194lbs, b:April 22, 1992 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 NO 38 63 931 3 2015 MIA 73 27 440 3 2016 MIA 105 2017 MIA 57
42 39
726 650
ATTs 1 0
RUSHING YDs TDs -2 0 0 0
9 5
Michael Floyd
Minnesota Vikings
6’2, 220lbs, b:November 27, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team ARI ARI 2TM Min
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 33 47 841 6 33 52 849 6 121 37 488 5 57 44 590 5
ATTs 1 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 2 0 0 0
HE Was released by the Cardinals after a second DUI arrest, and finished the season with a forgettable stint with the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. Floyd then headed to Minnesota. While talented, he is facing a few challenges with the Vikings. He is under house arrest until mid-June, and then must compete for a roster spot in which Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen likely have the top two spots hammered down. (DJ)
59
Will Fuller
Houston Texans
6’0, 184lbs, b:April 16, 1994 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 HOU 94 47 635 2 2017 Hou 59 46 630 3
60
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 1 -3 0
Fuller went from “the next DeSean Jackson” to “can’t catch the ball” in record time. His positives are readily apparent. He can take the lid off any defense. He beats guys giving him a 15 yard cushion. But the lack of underneath production along with, yes, a number of dropped passes has
Josh Doctson
Washington
6’2, 202lbs, b:March 12, 1992
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 WAS 399 2 66 0 2017 Was 60 45 500 5
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
John Ross (R)
Cincinnati Bengals
5’11, 188lbs, b:November 27, 1994
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Cin 62 37 610 4
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Last April Ross set a combine record by running a 4.22 in the 40-yard dash. His speed and pass-catching ability will be a welcome addition to the Cincinnati receiving corps. The Bengals don’t offer much versatility past the tremendous skills of A.J. Green. Ross was selected ninth overall in April’s draft and is a small for the prototypical NFL receiver, but fast. (DJ)
62
Kevin White Chicago Bears
6’3, 217lbs, b:June 25, 1993 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 CHI 206 19 187 0 2017 Chi 63 32 530 6
ATTs 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 9 0
Two major leg injuries have limited the Bears’ highly touted 2015 first-round selection to just four games played in two seasons, but White is finally healthy and starting in a receiver corps that lost Alshon Jeffery to free agency. Although he was on pace to compile 76 catches last season, he struggled noticeably with his route running and Chicago’s playbook. While the opportunity is definitely there for White, he still has the look of a raw rookie trying to learn the NFL game. (MW)
63
Taylor Gabriel
Atlanta Falcons
5’8, 167lbs, b:February 17, 1991
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 CLE 69 36 621 1 2015 CLE 122 28 241 0 2016 ATL 129 35 579 6 2017 Atl 64 34 560 5
league in average yards after the catch and was a “Weapon X” type talent. Gabriel didn’t get much burn until about halfway through the season, but he scored 7 times over Atlanta’s final 8 games. Gabriel didn’t have a 100 yard game and never saw more than 6 targets, so the ceiling seems low here. But as a matchup-based, bye-week substitute, he has some appeal. (AG)
64
Jeremy Maclin BALTIMORE RAVENS
6’0, 198lbs, b:August 26, 1988
How Does a Second-Year wideout project as a breakout? Doctson, who appears to be healthy from an Achilles’ tendon injury that haunted him last summer, fits that bill. Washington ranked third in total offense in 2016 and needs to replace 214 targets now that Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson have moved on. Terrelle Pryor, a former quarterback, joins Jordan Reed (an oft-injured tight end) and Doctson on the other end of Kirk Cousins’ passes. That makes the second-year Doctson a high-upside sleeper pick in the late rounds. (DG)
61
After a subpar season in his first year with the Dolphins, Stills reestablished himself as one of the league’s better deep threats and earned a hefty contract in free agency. Unfortunately, the crowded receiving corps in Miami, along with Ryan Tannehill’s struggles with downfield accuracy, will make it difficult for him to exceed or even repeat that performance. Should an injury create an opportunity for more targets, Stills has the talent to improve. (JDB)
58
really put a question mark in Fuller’s future. Of course, the quarterback situation in Houston wasn’t super helpful and most rookies go through growing pains. As a late-mid round flier, Fuller does have some limited upside. (AG)
RUSHING ATTs YDs 4 10 0 0 4 51
TDs 0 0 1
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs PHI 9 85 1318 10 KC 17 87 1088 8 KC 99 44 536 2 58 44 530 3
ATTs 0 3 1
RUSHING YDs 0 14 -1
TDs 0 0 0
Racking up career-low numbers across the board, Maclin missed all but two plays of five mid-season 2016 games due to a nasty groin injury and likely played hurt during the closing month of the regular season. That’s why he took a backseat to Travis Kelce, and do-it-all-weapon Tyreek Hill emerged. With his surprising release in June, Maclin, at 29 and acclimating to a new situation in Baltimore, has a long way to go to claw back up the fantasy ranks. (MW)
65
Ted Ginn Jr.
New Orleans Saints 5’11, 185lbs, b:April 12, 1985
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team ARI CAR CAR NO
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 131 14 190 0 26 44 739 10 75 54 752 4 65 40 580 3
ATTs 3 4 14
RUSHING YDs 6 60 98
TDs 0 0 0
Ted Ginn Jr. was labelled a first round bust after three seasons with the Dolphins. Now Ginn is entering his 11th NFL season in a great fantasy offense coming off his two most productive seasons (98 catches and 14 of his 25 receiving touchdowns). Ginn’s week-to-week inconsistency coupled with his big play ability makes him much more valuable in a draft champions type fantasy format, where you do not have to set a weekly lineup. (MM)
One Sentence 66
Marqise Lee
Jacksonville Jaguars 6’0, 192lbs, b:November 25, 1991
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team JAX JAX JAX Jax
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 97 37 422 1 109 15 191 1 52 63 851 3 66 41 560 3
ATTs 3 5 6
RUSHING YDs 9 38 35
TDs 0 0 0
Marqise Lee finally showed some of the talent that made him an early second round pick, but a crowded depth chart and an offense likely to be more run-oriented will limit his opportunities for a repeat. (JDB)
He wasn’t quite Kasnas City’s Tyreek Hill, but Gabriel played a similar role for the Falcons. He lead the
52 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | position ranking
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67
Cole Beasley
72
Dallas Cowboys
RUSHING ATTs YDs 0 0 0 0 1 7
TDs 0 0 0
In spite of a career-best season in 2016, Beasley is a dink-anddunk underneath player that rarely breaks off big chunks of yards or multi-touchdown games. (DG)
68
Allen Hurns
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 STL 87 31 242 0 2015 STL 25 52 473 5 2016 LAR 60 58 509 3 2017 LAR 72 34 300 3
73
Jacksonville Jaguars
2017 Jax
68
40
550
JJ Nelson
Arizona Cardinals
5’10, 156lbs, b:April 24, 1992 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2015 ARI 96 11 299 2 2016 ARI 132 34 568 6 2017 Ari 69 30 490 5
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 1 0 0 4 83 1
Nelson will have to hold off a slew of receivers including Jaron Brown to keep a spot in the slot. (DJ)
70
Mohamed Sanu Atlanta Falcons
6’2, 210lbs, b:August 22, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team CIN CIN ATL Atl
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 30 56 790 5 77 33 394 0 59 59 653 4 70 39 450 4
ATTs 7 10 1
RUSHING YDs 51 71 5
TDs 0 2 0
Mohamed Sanu is a complementary wideout known more for his run blocking than his receiving skills, and as such is unlikely to produce much fantasy value. (JDB)
71
Eli Rogers
Pittsburgh Steelers 5’10, 187lbs, December 23, 1992
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 PIT 91 48 594 3 2017 Pit 71 42 520 2
Year 2014 2015 2016
Team BAL SF SF
2017 Phi
3
The good news is Hurns is an NFL starting wide receiver. The bad news is that it’s with the Jaguars. (AG)
69
ATTs 1
RUSHING YDs TDs 6 0
Eli Rogers was a distant third in catches for the Steelers in 2016 behind Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell (who combined caught 55% of Big Ben’s completions). With Martavis Bryant back and JuJu Smith-Schuster joining the mix, Rogers will have a hard time improving on his 2016 numbers. (MM)
Torrey Smith
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 19 49 767 11 48 33 663 4 198 20 267 3 73
34
450
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
4
As the vertical threat in a deep receiving corps, Smith will occasionally post strong numbers but not be consistent enough to merit more than emergency use. (JDB)
74
Kendall Wright Chicago Bears
5’10, 191lbs, b:November 12, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team TEN TEN TEN Chi
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 37 57 715 6 74 36 408 3 162 29 416 3 74 34 500 3
ATTs 4 5 1
RUSHING YDs 54 17 15
TDs 0 0 0
Wright moves on to Chicago after five seasons in Tennessee. After catching 94 passes in his second season, Wright caught only 122 passes in his next three seasons while missing 13 games. (MM)
75
Brandon LaFell
Team NE NE CIN Cin
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 22 74 953 7 85 37 515 0 50 64 862 6 75 33 440 4
ATTs 2 2 1
RUSHING YDs 13 9 -2
Laquon Treadwell
78
Curtis Samuel (R) Carolina Panthers
5’11, 196lbs, b:August 11, 1996
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Drafting Samuel and Christian McCaffrey indicates the Panthers are moving to a quick-pass offense, which makes Samuel an intriguing late-round sleeper. (DG)
79
Chris Conley
K ansas City Chiefs
6’3, 205lbs, b:October 25, 1992
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 KC 44 530 0 2017 KC 79 39 480 2
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
The release of Jeremy Maclin opens the door for Conley to make fantasy waves, especially with Tyreek Hill as more of a gadget player. (AG)
80
Robby Anderson (R) New York Jets
6’3, 190lbs, b:May 9, 1993 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Dal 80 32 460 3
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
He will battle with ArDarius Stewart for the second receiver role with the Jets.
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team BUF BUF BUF LAR
Robert Woods
Los Angeles Rams RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 47 65 699 5 65 47 552 3 83 51 613 1 79 38 440 2
ATTs 0 1 1
RUSHING YDs 0 0 6
TDs 0 0 0
Robert Woods is a reliable possession receiver, yet staggeringly inept at generating yards after the catch and big enough to be a red zone threat. (JDB)
82
Terrance Williams
Dallas Cowboys
6’2, 208lbs, b:September 18, 1989
Minnesota Vikings 6’2, 221lbs, b:June 14, 1995
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 MIN 462 1 15 0 2017 Min 76 33 480 3
RUSHING YDs TDs 58 0
6’1, 201lbs, b:April 10,, 1992
TDs 0 0 0
With A.J. Green healthy again and lightning-quick rookie John Ross pushing for snaps, LaFell won’t duplicate the nice fantasy outings that he racked up as a target monster in an injury depleted Bengals receiver corps late last season. (MW)
76
ATTs 4
The Bengals have a crowded receiver logjam, but Boyd has upside if he can win a starting role. (AG)
81
Cincinnati Bengals
6’2, 208lbs, b:November 4, 1986 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 CIN 72 54 603 1 2017 Cin 77 43 490 1
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Car 78 34 430 3
Philadelphia Eagles
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs
Treadwell could be a deep sleeper this season with the Vikings after receiving positive reviews from the coaching staff on his offseason work ethic. (DJ)
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TDs 2 4 1 1
6’0, 205lbs, b:January 26, 1989
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tyler Boyd
Cincinnati Bengals
6’1, 197lbs, b:November 15, 1994
RUSHING ATTs YDs 36 224 52 434 28 159 160
The Rams want speedy jack-of-all-trades Austin to operate as a deep threat, but it’s hard to see the 5-foot-8, 176-pounder, who has averaged just 9.1 yards per catch, quickly making the leap. (MW)
6’3, 205lbs, b:November 12, 1991 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 JAX 44 51 677 6 2015 JAX 14 64 1031 10 2016 JAX 130 35 477 3
77
5’8, 176lbs, b:March 15, 1991
5’8, 180lbs, b:April 26, 1989 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 DAL 80 37 420 4 2015 DAL 56 52 536 5 2016 DAL 29 75 833 5 2017 Dal 67 40 440 5
Tavon Austin
Los Angeles Rams
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DAL DAL DAL Dal
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 41 37 621 8 44 52 840 3 101 44 594 4 80 32 430 3
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
The designated deep threat will catch a touchdown pass every once in a while. (MW)
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2017 POSITION R ANKING 2014 POSITION RANKING
TIGHT ENDS T
ight ends are usually the largest players we draft, and their shelf life and development pace seems to be closer to that of quarterbacks than running backs and wideouts. They’re often targeted by quarterbacks inside the 20, which means their touchdowns-to-touches ratio is generally among the best in the league. Yet, we usually wait on them in drafts because we can—the position is usually stocked with stars, future stars and former stars. There’s no rush to get one because each team only starts one, much like quarterbacks. In 2017, the Chargers and Patriots have multiple tight ends worth owning in fantasy play, which paradoxically hurts their value. The Buccaneers are following this trend, adding Alabama tight end O.J. Howard even though they already have 2016 fantasy breakout Cameron Brate, who was tied for the position lead in touchdown catches—with eight—with rookie Hunter Henry, who became the first rookie tight end to score enough points to be a TE1 since Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez did it in 2010. What can that mean for Howard, Evan Engram and David Njoku, possibly the most celebrated rookie class of tight ends since 2010? It’s still tough to imagine any of the three breaking into the top 10 at this position, considering the recent history of tight ends, and their landing places. No matter how you look at it, there will likely be good tight ends available on the waiver wire in the early weeks, as Kyle Rudolph and Brate were last year, Gary Barnidge and Ben Watson were in 2015, or Larry Donnell and Travis Kelce were in 2014. (DG)
1
Rob Gronkowski
New England Patriots 6’6, 265lbs, b:May 14, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs NE 1 82 1124 12 NE 1 72 1176 11 NE 31 25 540 3 NE 1 77 1060 10
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Trying to find a fresh and entertaining angle to talk about Gronkowski is pretty much impossible at this point. So, the facts speak for themselves. Gronkowski is on an island in terms of tight end per-game production. In 2015 and 2014, he paced all tight ends in fantasy scoring. But the occasional major injury has increased the risk associated with taking Gronk in the first round. That fate befell Gronkowski again last year in the form of two separate injuries which limited him to just 8 games played and concluded with back surgery. That’s not a great offseason activity and Gronkowski isn’t the unanimous top tight end like he normally is. Gronkowski still has the size and skill to be a menace to opposing offenses. At his best, he’s an unstoppable force Tom Brady can always turn to in the red zone. The injury uncertainty actually represents a bit of a boon for fantasy owners who
aren’t deterred. Gronkowski won’t require the first round selection he has in year’s past. Now, it will be possible to see him drop to the late second or early third depending on league size. If he comes back healthy and smashy in the preseason, he’s a fine choice for a bounce-back campaign. (AG)
2
Greg Olsen
Carolina Panthers
6’5, 253lbs, b:March 11, 1985 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs CAR 4 84 1008 6 CAR 4 77 1104 7 CAR 3 80 1073 3 Car 2 81 1080 5
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Greg Olsen has never led tight ends in fantasy points, as he isn’t a physically dominating receiver or an athletic freak with the speed to outrun cornerbacks. He ranks this highly at his position because no tight end has ever been more consistent, with his performance last season establishing him as the first tight end in NFL history with three consecutive seasons of at least one thousand receiving yards. Even the two seasons before that saw him top eight hundred yards, and he had posted at least five touchdowns annually for eight straight years until that streak was broken last season. The two keys to Olsen’s remarkable consistency are his durability, as he hasn’t missed a game since 2007, and his skills as a receiver. No tight end is a better technician when
it comes to running routes and securing catches. Although at age thirty-two his speed isn’t what it once was, he still has the ability to threaten the seams before breaking off his route and finding open space. Those tools make him a dangerous weapon on intermediate patterns, allowing him to finish second among tight ends each of the last three seasons in first downs gained. Greg’s receiving prowess and his importance to Carolina’s passing offense kept him largely immune from Cam Newton’s post-MVP slump, but it stands to reason that his production will diminish to some extent as he heads into his mid-thirties. Until that happens, he remains a safe bet for big numbers. (JDB)
3
Travis Kelce
K ansas City Chiefs
6’5, 260lbs, b:October 5, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs KC 9 67 862 5 KC 7 72 875 5 KC 2 85 1125 4 KC 3 80 930 6
ATTs 0 0 1
RUSHING YDs 0 0 -5
TDs 0 0 0
Last season, Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller referred to Kelce as a fake version of Rob Gronkowski. Regardless, Kelce posted a career year in 2016. Only Baltimore’s Dennis Pitta caught more passes at tight end than the fifth-year veteran. His numbers propelled him to the top spot for standard scoring for fantasy tight ends. Kelce pulled
Photo: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Elite
Rob gronkowski #1
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off the trick despite Kansas City lacking consistent threats to take pressure off of his plate. Can he do it again? After Gronkowski, one could make a case for Kelce as fantasy football’s best tight end. Yet, there are a few issues at hand. Alex Smith’s quarterback play is the biggest potential red flag. Also, the difference between the aforementioned Gronkowski in part lies in the touchdown totals. Over the past three seasons, Kelce caught 14 touchdown passes. Conversely, Gronk is the proud owner of 26 scores over the same span. That, my friends, is the Gronk difference. Ultimately, Kelce is still trying to get to that point. Until he can show otherwise, the former Cincinnati Bearcat will still be just a cut or two below the best tight end in fantasy football. (DJ)
4
Jordan Reed
Washington
6’3, 237lbs, b:July 3, 1990
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 WAS 25 50 465 0 2015 WAS 3 87 952 11 2016 WAS 2017 Was
8 4
66 76
686 830
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
6 9
6
If Reed could stay on the field for 14, 15 or 16 games every season, he’d challenge Rob Gronkowski for fantasy supremacy at the position. However, that’s probably never going to happen. After Reed started 14 contests two years ago, it had looked like he finally put his infamous durability issues in the rear view mirror. No such luck. The caveat “when healthy” will apply to the talented-but-injury-prone Reed for the rest of his career. Last season he missed four games and played injured in at least three others but still finished as the ninth-best fantasy tight end in most scoring formats. Reed has missed 18 games in four seasons and has suffered six concussions in six years, but he also comes with a lot of positives. The sure-handed Reed remains the focal point of a pass-heavy Washington offense as Kirk Cousins’ favorite target. Even though Reed, who is heading into his age-27 season, is listed as a tight end, the dynamic playmaker is essentially a big wideout who frequently lines up in the slot, which makes him a size-speed matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Washington replaced 1,000-yard receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon (they both left in free agency) with Terrelle Pryor, a converted college quarterback who is miscast as a No. 1 wideout, and the talented-butinexperienced Josh Doctson, respectively. Doctson missed 14 games during his 2016 rookie campaign due to an Achilles’ tendon issue. If Pryor and/or Doctson struggle, Cousins will need Reed more than ever. He’s a high-risk fantasy TE1 with top-three upside as usual. (MW)
5
perhaps because their speed is less important. That’s a good thing, since Graham is still just a couple seasons away from a torn patellar tendon that killed his first year in Seattle. The Seahawks offense continues to ramp up its passing attack, with quarterback Russell Wilson posting a career-high in passing attempts for the fourth consecutive season in 2016. Graham isn’t the touchdown machine he was in New Orleans (his combined 26 touchdowns from 2013-14 are three times what he scored in 2015-16 (eight), but he still led Seahawks receivers in red-zone targets (20) over the entire season. The Seahawks ground game should improve this year, as long as Eddie Lacy stays in shape and the offensive line creates better holes. Graham’s name will likely get him drafted higher than his true preseason value, as owners have fond memories of his time in the Crescent City, but with so many quality tight ends available, waiting for Graham to fall is the smarter move. Graham was a top-five tight end last season, and he’s expected to fall in that same category in 2017. (DG)
Jimmy Graham
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs TEN 8 63 890 4 TEN 5 94 1088 6 TEN 5 65 800 7 Ten 6 65 790 7
TDs 0 0 0
While Graham turns 31 years old around Thanksgiving, one should remember that tight ends don’t seem to age like wide receivers or running backs,
RUSHING YDs 0 36 11
TDs 0 0 0
Upper Echelon 7
Tyler Eifert
Cincinnati Bengals
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs CIN 79 3 37 0 CIN 6 52 615 13 CIN 27 29 394 5 Cin 7 60 800 6
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Saying “Tyler Eifert is a fantasy stud when healthy,” is the fantasy equivalent of saying, “My girlfriend is absolutely beautiful once she puts on makeup.” After a breakout 2015 season in which Eifert caught 13 touchdown passes for the
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ATTs 0 1 2
Delanie Walker has been a star in his four seasons with the Tennessee Titans. After leading NFL tight ends in receptions in 2015, there was some regression in 2016. Walker has really developed after seven middling seasons in San Francisco where he caught only 123 passes. In four seasons with Tennessee, Walker caught 282 passes and really clicked with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in 2015 and 2016 with 94 and 65 catches. While Walker’s 2015 season was nearly perfect from a fantasy perspective as he scored double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring in 13 of the 15 games he played, he scored double digits in nine of 15 games in 2016. Last year we did project “A slight jump in touchdowns (Walker’s career-high is six) will offset the likely decline in receptions and keep him in the elite group of tight ends in the NFL.” Walker is a safe bet to match 2016 numbers and rank within the top six among NFL tight ends. (MM)
Seattle Seahawks
RUSHING ATTs YDs 0 0 0 0 1 0
Tennessee Titans
6’0, 248lbs, b:August 12, 1984
6’6, 250lbs, b:September 8, 1998
6’7, 265lbs, b:November 24, 1986 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 NO 3 85 889 10 2015 SEA 16 48 605 2 2016 SEA 4 65 923 6 2017 Sea 5 70 950 6
Delanie Walker
Bengals, he started last season on the active/PUP list, and he didn’t see game action until Week 6. But from Week 8 to Week 14, Travis Kelce was the only tight end to outscore him in fantasy points. But his season ended early for the third time in his four NFL seasons, after back surgery became necessary. From back to ankle to elbow to shoulder to neck, Eifert makes Gronk look like Cal Ripken Jr. Eifert should be ready for Week 1, but he might not start training camp with his teammates. If he can stay on the field, he has a shot at being the best tight end in fantasy, as the Bengals running game should be much improved, opening up space for him. (DG)
8
Zach Ertz
Philadelphia Eagles
6’5, 250lbs, b:November 10, 1990 Year 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs PHI 10 75 853 2 PHI 6 78 816 4 Phi 8 75 800 3
ATTs 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0
Consecutive seasons of 70+ catches from Ertz has him in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends heading into 2017. He ended the 2016 campaign in solid fashion by grabbing two 100-yard receiving days in his final four games. But how can he make the jump to the next level? Quarterback Carson Wentz and his supporting cast will have a lot to do with that. If the Eagles, can actually get wide receivers that can get open and actually catch the football, Ertz will benefit. The Eagles don’t spread the field effectively, which can make things more difficult for Ertz, especially in the red zone. In fact, the Eagles ranked 24th in red zone efficiency last season. Players like Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey could take targets away from Ertz but they will also likely help him contribute bigger plays in the passing game. Consider Ertz a starter despite his less than spectacular touchdown totals. He is not Gronk or Travis Kelce yet but has the opportunity to jump into the next tier of top fantasy tight ends. (DJ)
9
Martellus Bennett Green Bay Packers
6’6, 273lbs, b:March 10, 1987 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
RECEIVING Team Rank RECs YDs TDs CHI 5 90 916 6 CHI 26 53 439 3 NE 10 55 701 7 GB 9 55 660 7
ATTs 0 0 2
RUSHING YDs 0 0 10
TDs 0 0 0
Martellus Bennett jumps from one great tight end situation in New England to another one in Green Bay. Bennett is the best tight end to play in Green Bay since Jermichael Finley caught 116 passes combined in 2011-2012. Bennett has caught at least 53 passes in each of his past five seasons and scored five, six, or seven touchdowns in four of those five seasons. Bennett has also played in all 16 games in four of the past five seasons. His health makes him a strong candidate if you like to use your reserve spots on something other than a backup tight end. By rostering Bennett, there is a good chance that you will only need a second tight on Bennett’s bye week. (MM)
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POSITION RANKING 10
TE
Kyle Rudolph
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
6’6, 265lbs, b:November 9, 1989 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIN MIN MIN Min
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 32 24 231 2 14 49 495 5 1 83 840 7 10 60 640 6
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Rudolph may, in fact, be the least flashy pick in all of fantasy football this year. No one will react to the selection of Rudolph. No “Nice pick, man.” or “That’s a Taco move, bro!” will follow his name appearing on the board. But Rudolph quietly had a great season last year, racking up over 800 receiving yards to go along with 7 scores. That was made possible by the career high 132 targets Rudolph got last year. Sam “Captain Checkdown” Bradford ended up being good for someone in the Great North. The Vikings still have Bradford, a shaky receiver group (If anyone can find Laquon Treadwell, please contact authorities as soon as possible), and a situation primed for Rudolph. As a late-rounder, he makes a lot of sense as one of the last safe starting fantasy tight ends.
11
Hunter Henry
Los angeles Chargers
6’4, 265lbs, b:April 10, 1993 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 SD 15 36 478 8 2017 LAC 11 52 690 6
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Hunter Henry’s rookie campaign where he tied for first among tight ends in receiving touchdowns is all the more impressive when considering that he played fewer offensive snaps than Antonio Gates. With Gates entering his final season and Henry having already been named the team’s starter, it would be reasonable to hope for an improvement over last year’s numbers. Yet most of Henry’s production came over a four week stretch early in the season where he gained sixty percent of his total yardage, after which he struggled to be more than a red zone weapon. His size and excellent hands make him a valuable option around the goal line and on third downs, but he isn’t particularly athletic and won’t be the primary read very often given the team’s talent at wide receiver. Philip Rivers’ reliance on the tight end is a boost to Henry’s stock, but it is best to keep expectations modest until he shows himself to be consistently productive in yardage as well as touchdowns. (JDB)
Solid 12
Eric Ebron
Detroit Lions
RUSHING ATTs YDs 0 0 0 0 1 1
13
Jack Doyle
Indianapolis Colts 6’6, 267lbs, b:May 5, 1990
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team IND IND IND Ind
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 45 18 118 2 68 12 72 1 13 59 584 5 13 56 570 5
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
The Colts always seem to trot out some random tight end who proceeds to benefit from Andrew Luck and a complete lack of attention from defenses. Doyle was that guy last year for Indianapolis. Doyle was fairly consistent, yardage-wise. He finished with about 600 yards and 5 scores, which was good enough to be a bye-week replacement most weeks. To increase his value to ‘weak starter’ territory, he’ll need to add a few touchdowns. But with an extra year in the offense, he does have the size to improve his red zone production. The Colts aren’t blessed with tall receivers, so getting Doyle more involved around the goalline would make some sense. One worry to watch out for would be the inclusion of Erik Swoope, who came on strong over the last half of 2016. If Swoope starts taking away Doyle’s looks, the Colts tight end situation will be murky and avoidable for fantasy. (AG)
MARC MELTZER’S CHALLENGE:
Favorable - The magazine consensus has Doyle as a reserve in 12-team drafts. I believe that Doyle will be an every-week pencil-in-your-lineup tight end (8th ranked). Doyle finally saw time as a serious pass-catching tight end in 2016 and excelled. Now Dwayne Allen is gone, so it should be all Doyle, all the time. I know this is highly hypothetical, but if you add just half of Allen’s 2016 stats to Doyle’s 2016 total, Doyle would have been the second highest fantasy scoring tight end.
14
6’4, 245lbs, b:APRIL 10, 1993
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 DET 39 25 248 1 2015 DET 13 47 537 5 2016 DET 17 61 711 1 2017 Det 12 63 760 2
to hang up his cleats. While Ebron compiled career highs in receptions and receiving yards, he continued to struggle with dropped passes, consistency (Ebron frequently disappeared in home games) and injuries. Did he scoop up a bunch of the 150 targets that Johnson left behind in 2015? Nope. Ebron’s targets increased from 69 to only 86 probably because of the surprising effectiveness of Anquan Boldin (67-584-8 on 95 targets) in what has become a spread-the-wealth Lions passing attack. Even though Ebron’s production has been trending upward overall, this smells like a make-or-break season for the 10th overall selection in the 2014 draft. Athletically gifted, he’s more than big enough to operate as a lethal red-zone target, and Detroit likes to use Ebron’s mismatch-creating speed out of the slot. Staying healthy and rebounding in the scoring department will be the key to his 2017 success. Ebron is a late TE1 based on the relatively equal upside and downside (MW).
Coby Fleener
New Orleans Saints
6’6, 251lbs, September 20, 1988 TDs 0 0 0
Ebron didn’t have the huge breakout campaign that some had predicted after Calvin Johnson decided
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team IND IND NO NO
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 6 51 774 8 22 54 491 3 18 50 631 3 14 55 620 4
ATTs 0 0 1
RUSHING YDs 0 0 2
TDs 0 0 0
Few offenses have been more friendly to the tight end in recent years than the Saints’, yet in the first
season of his large free agent contract, Coby Fleener failed to match Ben Watson much less Jimmy Graham. His main problem is the same one that plagued him during his time with the Colts, that he consistently struggles to maintain control and complete the catch through contact. Fleener has one of the lower drop rates at his position when untouched, yet defenders are able to jar or rip the ball loose with regularity on contested passes. That issue appeared to affect Drew Brees’ trust, as Coby’s targets decreased by a quarter over the second half of the season. With Brandin Cooks gone, Fleener has the opportunity to take on a larger role in the offense if he improves. (JDB)
15
Jason Witten
Dallas Cowboys 6’6, 263lbs, b:May 6, 1982
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DAL DAL DAL Dal
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 10 64 703 5 12 77 713 3 12 69 673 3 15 57 590 3
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Is this last call for Witten? The 35-year-old future Hall of Famer won’t commit to playing beyond 2017. Still a fantasy asset, Witten closed out last season as the TE14 in non-PPR scoring formats and as the TE11 in one-point PPR scoring setups. As the seventh-most targeted tight end (95 looks), he also finished sixth at the position in catches and 11th in receiving yards. Witten’s week-to-week consistency, however, slipped a little more due to the emergence of Cole Beasley. When Witten was in his prime, the Cowboys rarely featured him in scoring situations, and that hasn’t changed. Since Witten’s burst disappeared a few seasons ago, big plays are in short supply, too. Relying on a still-superb set of hands and tons of veteran smarts, Witten operates as an effective and productive safety valve for Dak Prescott. Although Witten clearly lacks upside, the 15th-year pro is still a decent matchup-play backup tight end to use in a committee. (MW)
Keep An Eye On 16
Julius Thomas Miami Dolphins
6’5, 260lbs, b:June 27, 1988 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DEN JAX JAX Mia
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 7 43 489 12 15 46 455 5 34 30 281 4 16 55 590 3
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
The ex-Broncos and Jaguars tight end combined to catch 24 touchdown passes in 2013 and ‘14. Over the past two seasons, Thomas just snagged nine. The difference? Thomas went from catching balls from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles. Now, he moves to Miami with head coach Adam Gase, who knows Thomas well from their time in Denver. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is somewhere inbetween Bortles than Manning, which could be problematic for Thomas. Expect a little bit of a bounceback season from Thomas thanks to the connection with Gase. (DJ)
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17
Antonio Gates
Los Angeles Chargers
6’4, 255lbs, b:June 18, 1980 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 SD 2 69 821 12 2015 SD 11 56 630 5 2016 SD 11 53 548 7 2017 SD 17 50 540 4
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 0 0 0 0 0 0
On the surface, Gates’ 2016 season was just another top-notch effort at his position, but the team is pivoting to sophomore Hunter Henry, who could have had one of the best rookie seasons for a tight end ever, if Gates had already retired. While Henry gets a larger role in 2017, Gates is still a Hall of Famer who could use his basketball skills to box out for another four or five touchdown catches. (DG)
18
Cameron Brate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6’5, 235lbs, b:July 3, 1991 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team TB TB TB TB
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 86 1 17 0 35 23 288 3 7 57 660 8 19 43 520 5
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Had the Bucs just stood pat, Brate was on pace to be a really nice undervalued guy who patient fantasy teams would be able to nab towards the end of drafts. But no! Tampa had to go and draft the top tight end prospect in O.J. Howard. There are only so many targets to be shared and it’s a crowded offense as is. If Howard disappoints, Brate could work his way into fantasy lineups again, but as is, he’s a reserve going into 2017. (AG)
19
Charles Clay
fracture in his right foot, and while he’s expected to be ready for Week 1, the Bears offense shouldn’t make much noise. (DG)
21
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Cle 22 48 470 3
Team MIA BUF BUF Buf
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 15 58 605 3 20 51 528 3 14 57 552 4 20 52 530 3
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
One Sentence
Zach Miller Chicago Bears
6’5, 240lbs, b:October 4, 1984 RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 SEA 67 6 76 0 2015 CHI 17 34 439 5 2016 CHI 21 47 486 4 2017 Chi 21 45 460 5
RUSHING YDs TDs
22
OJ Howard
Team HOU HOU HOU Hou
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Austin Hooper
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 0 0 0 0 0 0
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
Evan Engram (R)
New York GIants
6’3, 234lbs, b:September 2, 1994
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs
Jared Cook
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 NYG 28 40 410 3
ATTs
RUSHING YDs TDs
The Giants will likely give him the starting nod but hard to imagine Engram getting a big share of the receiving pie due to the amount of weapons in the passing attack. (DJ)
29
Oakland Raiders
Vance McDonald
San Francisco 49ers 6’4, 267lbs, b:June 13, 1990
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 1 0 0 0 0 0
The athleticism that made him a favorite sleeper at tight end has begun to wane, and he has joined a team with a passing attack oriented around its wide receivers. (JDB)
Vernon Davis
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team SF SF SF SF
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 89 2 30 0 31 30 326 3 35 24 391 4 29 30 390 4
ATTs 0 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
The athletic-but-inconsistent McDonald, assuming he’s not traded or released, could have a sizeable role in an offense that will be throwing a lot in catch-up mode. (MW)
30
Washington
Jesse James
Pittsburgh Steelers 6’7, 265lbs, b:June 4, 1994
6’3, 250lbs, b:January 31, 1984
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 SF 29 26 245 2 2015 2TM 37 38 395 0 2016 WAS 24 44 583 2 2017 Was 26 39 520 3
Los Angeles Rams
It’s not the greatest situation, but there’s room in his sophomore year to establish himself as a red zone target for Jared Goff. (AG)
Atlanta Falcons
Second-year pro Hooper’s upside as an undisputed starter is limited in a Falcons offense that’s loaded with capable pass catchers. (MW)
25
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0 0 0
Tyler Higbee (R)
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 Hou 27 36 340 5
28
6’5, 240lbs, b:October 4, 1984
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2014 STL 14 52 634 3 2015 STL 34 39 481 0 2016 GB 37 30 377 1 2017 Oak 25 36 440 5
ATTs 0 0
6’6, 250lbs, b:January 1, 1993
Howard will have many successful years in the NFL, but this isn’t the season to own him thanks to a crowded receiving group in Tampa. (AG)
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2016 ATL 40 19 271 3 2017 Atl 24 42 450 4
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 64 4 28 1 53 17 167 1 16 54 559 4 27 38 390 4
C.J. Fiedorowicz has always had good hands, but until last season he was primarily a blocker and he doesn’t possess the speed to be more than a dump off option. Can he repeat? (AG)
27
6’6, 242lbs, b:November 19, 1994
23
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RECEIVING Year Team Rank RECs YDs TDs 2017 TB 23 40 480 4
CJ Fiedorowicz
Houston Texans
6’6, 265lbs, b:October 22, 1991
6’5, 254lbs, b:April 7, 1987
There is nothing very exciting about Clay. It is very likely that when his career ends, his best statistical season will have been the 2013 season in Miami (69 receptions, 759 yards, six touchdowns). Clay fits as a bye week replacement where you and hope you get a five catch game (seven games of five or more catches in 2016) and not one of the stinkers. (MM)
20
ATTs
The last rookie tight end to be a viable fantasy starter from day one was Jeremy Shockey, but Njoku is a good bet for a mid to late season surge based on his talent and measurables. (AG)
6’3, 255lbs, b:December 6, 1986
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cleveland Browns
6’4, 247lbs, b:July 10, 1996
24
Buffalo Bills
David Njoku
26
RUSHING ATTs YDs TDs 1 4 0 0 0 0
Any fantasy owners that have Washington’s Jordan Reed will definitely want to keep any eye on Davis due to the former’s injury history. (DJ)
Year 2015 2016 2017
Team PIT PIT Pit
RECEIVING Rank RECs YDs TDs 66 8 56 1 29 39 338 3 30 41 390 2
ATTs 0
RUSHING YDs TDs 0 0
With the release of Ladarius Green, the Steelers are all in on TE Jesse James, 23, who is entering his third NFL season, with waiver-wire fantasy potential. (DG)
The 32-year-old’s 2016 season ended early with a Lisfranc
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2017 POSITION R ANKING 2014 POSITION RANKING
KICKERS K
icker is the most important position in a fantasy lineup and it is of the utmost importance that you spend most of your preparation time evaluating kickers. Sorry, it is hard to not be a little sarcastic when introducing the kicker position. In reality, most kickers are created equal (or at least close to equal). The difference during the season is opportunity and confidence. If you go back and look at the top ten scoring kickers in 2015, you will see that only two repeated in the top ten in 2016 (Justin Tucker and Graham Gano). Three of the top ten from 2015 were cut during 2016 (Blair Walsh, Robbie Gould, and Josh Brown). We even saw an NFL team use a second round draft choice on a kicker in 2016 (Roberto Aguayo) and there is a chance that he will not make the opening day roster in 2017. So when it comes to kickers, please follow the cardinal rule for drafting kickers: Thou shalt not draft a kicker before the last round. (MM)
1
Justin Tucker
Baltimore Ravens
6’1, 183lbs, b:November 21, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank BAL 10 BAL 7 BAL 4 Bal 1
Field Goals Made ATT 29 34 33 40 38 39
Extra Pts Made 42 29 27
Points 129 128 141 175
Tucker has long been one of the elite kickers in the NFL, combining a very strong leg with extraordinary accuracy, yet his fantasy value lagged due to Baltimore’s inconsistent offense. Even though he regularly ranked among the league leaders in field goal attempts, his average to below average number of extra points prevented him from matching the best fantasy kickers. While that limitation persisted last season, he overcame it by being perfect on all ten of his attempts from fifty yards or farther, tying an NFL record in the process. In leagues that do not award bonus points for conversions from that distance, his value isn’t quite as strong, but in the majority that do his unequaled accuracy from long range and high number of attempts makes him a fantasy force. (JDB)
2
Stephen Gostkowski New England Patriots
6’1, 215 LBS , b:January 28, 1984 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank NE 1 NE 1 NE 15 NE 2
Field Goals Made ATT 35 37 33 36 27 32
Extra Pts Made 51 52 46
Points 156 151 127 165
Whenever a kicker drops the line “I stink right now”, that has to be a red flag regarding his future with a
team. Since a critical extra point miss during the 2015 AFC title game in Denver, Gostkowski has been on a roller coaster ride. He missed five field goals—the most misfires for the Patriot since 2012. Then of course, his struggles with extra points continued. He missed five extra points, including a near-costly miss during New England’s Super Bowl rally. The good news for Gostkowski owners, however, is short and to the point. He is the kicker for football’s premier offense, probably. He will get opportunities aplenty courtesy of Tom Brady and New England’s potent attack. His biggest drawback could be his greatest strength. While New England possesses a world-class offense, it’s a unit that usually scores touchdowns and doesn’t have to settle for field goals often. Nonetheless, Gostkowski is a top-tier fantasy kicker. (DJ)
3
Matt Bryant Atlanta Falcons
5’9, 200lbs, b:May 29, 1975 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank ATL 12 ATL 31 ATL 6 Atl 3
Field Goals Made ATT 29 32 14 18 34 37
Extra Pts Made 40 26 56
Points 127 68 158 155
Entering the 2016 NFL season, Bryant was coming off a quad injury that robbed him of six games in 2015. While big things were expected from the Falcons’ offense, Atlanta brought in a rookie kicker to give Bryant a run for the job. Then Bryant caught fire in a big way, as the Falcons offense finished 2016 with as many points as “The Greatest Show on Turf” 2000 St. Louis Rams, tying for seventh-most points in NFL history. Bryant’s big year was fueled by career-highs in field goals made (34) and extra points made (56). The bad news? Bryant is 42 years old, offensive brainiac Kyle Shanahan is in San Francisco, and Bryant won’t be a sleeper anymore. Even so, taking a kicker late means there aren’t really any bust candidates, and the offense is still lethal with Matt Ryan under center. (DG)
4
Dan Bailey
Dallas Cowboys
6’0, 195lbs, b:January 26, 1988 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank DAL 8 DAL 12 DAL 14 Dal 4
Field Goals Made ATT 25 29 30 32 27 32
Extra Pts Made 56 25 46
Points 131 115 127 152
The second-most accurate field goal kicker in NFL history will start the season with a conversion percentage that’s just 0.311 behind leader Justin Tucker. As far as scoring goes, Bailey remains one of the safest choices at the position. He has finished between fifth and 12th in kicker scoring during each of his six pro seasons, and he has racked up at least 124 points five times. Last season, he finished eighth in scoring after attempting 32 field goals, the second-highest total of his career, and his 46 extra points ranked third among all kickers. Although his leg isn’t quite as powerful as some others, Bailey has connected on a respectable 24 of 35 career trey attempts (68.6 percent) from 50-plus yards. A Cowboys offense energized by talented youngsters will generate plenty of scoring chances for Bailey. The Dallas defense took some major hits in free agency and will likely struggle, so Bailey’s team should find itself in plenty of high-scoring contests, which clearly bodes well for him. (MW)
5
Cairo Santos
K ansas City Chiefs
5’8, 160lbs, b:November 12, 1991 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank KAN 18 KAN 6 KAN 10 KC 5
Field Goals Made ATT 25 30 30 37 31 35
Extra Pts Made 38 39 36
Points 113 129 129 150
Santos had his most accurate season on three-point attempts
Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Upper Echelon
Justin Tucker #1
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last year en route to 129 points scored, the sixth highest total in the league. It helped that he went from 19 attempts at 40+ yards and 10 attempts from 30-39 yards in 2015 to 9 attempts from 40+ and 15 attempts from 30-39 last year. Of course, scoring systems that reward extra points for yardage or 50+ yard field goals wouldn’t call that “helpful”. Still, Santos kicks for an Alex Smith offense, which is usually a recipe for at least 30 field goal attempts, and he has a big leg if needed. All of this points to another top 10 scoring season for Santos. (AG)
6
Graham Gano
Carolina Panthers
6’2, 205lbs, b:April 9, 1987 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank CAR 13 CAR 2 CAR 5 Car 6
Field Goals Made ATT 29 35 30 36 30 38
Extra Pts Made 34 56 31
Points 121 146 121 148
Gano has connected on 29 or 30 field goals in each of the past three seasons, but last year the misses jumped up to eight. Keep a close eye on the pre-season competition with rookie Harrison Butker. Any time an NFL team is willing to use one of its valuable draft choices on a kicker (even a 7th round pick in this case), the incumbent kicker has to be worried. (MM)
7
Mason Crosby Green Bay Packers
6’1, 207lbs, b:September 3, 1984 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank GB 4 GB 16 GB 20 GB 7
Field Goals Made ATT 27 33 24 28 26 30
Extra Pts Made 53 36 44
Points 134 108 122 143
When a kicker has an elite offense to back it, ofttimes their cleanup work comes from kicking extra points. Green Bay’s offensive success and ability to punch it into the end zone impacted Crosby’s fantasy scoring punch. Look no further than Crosby’s long-distance opportunities. He attempted just two field goals from 50 yards and beyond last season. Meanwhile, the 11-year veteran ranked 20th in field goal attempts last season. Led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers offense does not stall much in enemy territory, which is a negative for Crosby owners. (DJ)
8
Adam Vinatieri
Minnesota Vikings
5’10, 170lbs, b:January 8, 1990
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank MIN 3 MIN 17 MIN 19 MIN 8
Field Goals Made ATT 30 31 25 27 27 31
Extra Pts Made 50 32 44
Points 140 107 125 142
With 21 NFL seasons under his belt, it’s tough to imagine he has a lot left. But his 27 made field-goal attempts in 2016 were his third-most since 2004, and his 44 made extra points ranked fifth over his entire career. The Colts offense is expected to be prolific once again in 2017, which sets up well for Vinatieri’s fantasy owners. He’s worth a look in all formats, even if he started his professional career when Andrew Luck was just six years old. (DG))
9
Caleb Sturgis 5’9, 192lbs, b:August 9, 1989
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank MIA 11 PHI 25 PHI 3 Phi 9
Field Goals Made ATT 29 37 18 22 35 41
Extra Pts Made 41 35 30
10
Points 128 89 135 138
Dustin Hopkins Washington
6’2, 206lbs, b:October 1, 1990 Year 2015 2016 2017
Team Rank WAS 13 WAS 1 Was 10
Field Goals Made ATT 25 28 34 42
Extra Pts Made 39 36
Points 114 138 136
Kicking for a powerful Washington offense, the strong-legged Hopkins racked up a career-high 138 points, which ranked third among all kickers. Not too shabby for a guy who was out of the NFL in 2014. Unfortunately, some scoring regression seems likely for Hopkins because Washington’s offense looks set to take a step backwards. On top of that, Washington’s schedule also looks very challenging. It’s loaded up with AFC West and NFC West defenses, along with two dates with the elite New York Giants defense. Hopkins’ scoring won’t drop off a cliff, but another top-three finish in scoring is very unlikely. (MW)
Solid 11
Brandon McManus
Denver Broncos
6’3, 201lbs, b:July 25, 1991
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team DEN DEN DEN Den
Rank 31 10 12 11
Field Goals Made ATT 9 13 30 35 29 34
Extra Pts Made 41 35 32
Will Lutz
New Orleans Saints
5’11, 184lbs, b:July 7, 1994
2016 was by far the best of his four seasons, connecting on 35 field goals while missing on only six. Only Justin Tucker made more field goals than Sturgis in 2016. Sturgis was perfect inside 40 yards going 24-for-24. He certainly demonstrates the fine line kickers walk in the NFL. Miami Dolphin fans can talk to how terrible Sturgis was in his two seasons in Miami. An NFL kicker connecting on only 55-of-71 field goals is likely to lose his job, as did Sturgis. Now he has gone 53-of-63 in field goal attempts with the Eagles and life is good. (MM)
Points 68 125 119 135
Having posted above average fantasy totals each of the last two seasons, Brandon McManus is a solid but unspectacular option at kicker. Playing half of his games at altitude undoubtedly helps his performance, yet that has been offset by the team’s inconsistent offense, which has decreased his chances for both field goals and especially extra points. Should McManus go through another prolonged slump, it is conceivable that the team might look to make a change, but for now his home stadium and respectable performance over the last two seasons makes him a reasonable choice at the end of fantasy drafts. (JDB)
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12
Philadelphia Eagles
Year Team Rank 2017 NO 12
Field Goals Made ATT
Extra Pts Made
Points 132
Lutz performed well as a rookie, connecting on 82 percent of his field goal attempts. It helps that his home games are in a dome, where he did was slightly more accurate last year. It helps even more that Drew Brees plays for the Saints, so they are constantly putting points on the board one way or another. (AG)
13
Blair Walsh
Seattle Seahawks
5’10, 170lbs, b:January 8, 1990
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team MIN MIN MIN Sea
Rank 20 4 31 13
Field Goals Made ATT 26 35 34 39 12 16
Extra Pts Made 29 33 15
Points 107 135 51 128
How ironic is that? After getting booted out of Minnesota halfway through last season because of accuracy problems that mushroomed after he shanked a chip shot field goal that would have defeated the Seahawks in the 2015 playoffs, Walsh will try to resurrect his career with that team. Seattle has finished fourth, fifth, ninth and seventh in kicker scoring during the last four years, so Walsh, known for his huge leg, has some intriguing upside. (MW)
14
Matt Prater Detroit Lions
5’10, 195lbs, b:August 10, 1984 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team 2TM DET DET Det
Rank 29 21 8 14
Field Goals Made ATT 21 26 22 24 31 36
Extra Pts Made 21 36 31
Points 84 102 124 126
The NFL record holder for longest successful field goal at sixty-four yards, Prater has consistently shown the ability to convert from unusually long distances. He is accurate from those distances as well, connecting on all seven of his attempts from fifty yards or more last season. He also has yet to miss in clutch situations. Unfortunately, Detroit’s offense holds him back. (JDB)
15
Sebastian Janikowski
Oakland Raiders
6’1, 265lbs, b:March 2, 1978
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Team OAK OAK OAK Oak
Rank 27 22 9 15
Field Goals Made ATT 19 22 21 26 29 35
Extra Pts Made 28 38 37
Points 85 101 124 125
There is no way the newly explosive Raiders offense won’t methodically put points on the board! Anyone reading the last ranked kicker profile should definitely get a reward. Anyway. Janikowski, meanwhile, has a big leg still and the Raiders offense really is looking dangerous. (AG)
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2017 POSITION R ANKING 2014 POSITION RANKING
TEAM DEFENSE E
ven though Defense/Special Teams unitS Aren’t taken until the end of a fantasy draft, they can be the difference between winning a fantasy title and getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Sure, overreaching for D/ST can be death to a fantasy roster, but completely ignoring the position throughout the season will often come back to haunt fantasy owners at crucial times.
As for this year’s crop, some familiar and not-so surprising Defensive/ Special Teams options land around the top of our fantasy list. Once again, a talent-laden Denver Broncos defense is one of fantasy football’s most ferocious units. While Denver’s front-four and secondary Denver Broncos #1 are stocked with playmakers, other teams have plenty to offer fantasy owners, too. How about the Arizona Cardinals? While they underperformed as a team, the Cardinals led the NFL in sacks and showed bigplay ability in the special teams department. And what about former old-reliables Baltimore and Tampa Bay making a run at the top 10? Major forces throughout the 2000s, both the Ravens and Buccaneers have youthful talent that could make them top units once more. Overall, this is one of the most ignored and taken for granted portions of a fantasy roster. Yet, make no mistake. Landing the right team (or streaming the right teams week to week) can be a game-changer and thus, turn a fantasy owner’s roster into a superpower. (DJ)
1
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been a top-flight defense for the past few years and this year’s roster should keep them at that level in 2017. They have ranked second and third in fantasy defensive scoring over the past two seasons, and ranked in the top-four in the NFL in sacks, fumble recoveries, and pass touchdowns. Linebackers Von Miller and Shane Ray combined for 21.5 sacks. The Broncos added depth to the defense by drafting defensive end DeMarcus Walker in the second round and cornerback Brendan Langley in the third. One area that has room for improvement, however, Denver ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed, though their per-play average was middle of the pack. Walker, along with free agent signees Domata Peko and Zach Kerr, will attempt to fix that broken Broncos rush defense, which will be especially helpful in leagues that score yards allowed. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris both earned first-team all-pro honors in 2016 and return in 2017. (MM)
2
Minnesota Vikings
Forced to carry a mediocre-at-best offense all through 2016, Minnesota’s third season under head coach/defensive signal-caller Mike Zimmer was statistically its best overall. The Vikings yielded the sixth-fewest points, 19.2 per game. They also finished fifth in sacks,
3
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals had issues winning football games last year, but it’s tough to put the blame on coordinator James Bettcher and the defense. Arizona finished second in yards allowed, first in sacks, and fourth in turnovers. Lead by the linebacking core of Markus Golden, Chandler Jones, and Alex Okafor, the Cardinals end up just playing too fast for opposing offenses. With their 3-4 scheme, they decided that trio wasn’t quite enough, so they selected Temple’s Haason Reddick in the first round as well. That heat on the quarterback allows defensive backs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu to sit on panic passes. On the negative side, Arizona lost
Calais Campbell to the Jaguars in free agency while not really bringing anyone in to soften the subtraction. That means the lineman with the most tackles from last season still on the team is Josh Mauro, who had 24. that ranked 13th on the team. Assuming the line play can just hold it together, the Cardinals should still be one of the first defenses to go on draft day. (AG)
4
Carolina Panthers
The decision to part with Josh Norman had a disastrous effect on the Carolina Panthers’ secondary last season, as they fell from one of the better units to one of the worst in passing yards and touchdowns allowed. Losing Luke Kuechly for six weeks following his concussion was another devastating blow, yet despite all that the Panthers remained an above average fantasy defense thanks to the league’s second-best pass rush and a respectable turnover total. This offseason, the Panthers added significant talent in key areas to address some of the defense’s more glaring weaknesses. Julius Peppers will help the team remain one of the best at getting after the quarterback, while Captain Munnerlyn significantly upgrades the team’s coverage of slot receivers and Mike Adams adds veteran talent at safety. Age and injuries are the only major concerns going forward, as the defense is fairly old everywhere except cornerback and lacks the depth to plug holes if one of the important contributors misses significant time. If they can stay healthy, the Panthers should challenge for the top spot. (JDB)
5
Kansas City Chiefs Looking at the raw numbers from
Photo: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Upper Echelon
with 41 quarterback takedowns, and ninth in takeaways, which was their highest total under Zimmer. In addition, the team finished second only to the Chiefs in scoring, with seven touchdowns (four defensive scores and three special teams scores). By the way, Zimmer’s defenses have tallied 18 defensive/special teams touchdowns in the last three years. What’s new for the Vikings in 2017? Not much, and that’s a good thing. Nine starters are expected to return, including top pass-rushers Danielle Hunter (team-high 12.5 sacks), Everson Griffin (8.0 sacks) and Brian Robison (7.5 sacks), and shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes (team-high five picks). Emotional leader Chad Greenway retired, and the return of run-stuffer Sharrif Floyd, who is recovering from a knee injury, is unknown. Kickoff returner/gadget-guy Cordarrelle Patterson and slot corner Captain Munnerlyn both walked in free agency, which will sting a bit. Overall, though, Minnesota remains a top-level option. (MW)
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Kansas City’s 2016 defensive campaign, it appeared to be a scattershot effort. The Chiefs ranked 24th in total defense; 26th in rush defense; and 28th in sacks. So, why the high ranking for a seemingly pedestrian unit? Well, the Chiefs lost key defensive cogs during the season, including pass-rushing specialists Justin Houston and Derrick Johnson. Yet, Kansas City still led the NFL in forcing turnovers with 33. A huge portion of that success can be credited to their strong secondary, which intercepted an NFL-high 18 passes. Kansas City’s defense parlayed four of those interceptions into touchdowns. While safety Eric Berry and outside linebacker Dee Ford helped lead the defensive charge, wide receiver Tyreek Hill raised the Chiefs to another fantasy level. The speedy receiver posted two punt returns and a kickoff return for touchdowns last season. With Hill’s dynamic speed on special teams and the Chiefs possibly being healthier on defense, this unit could be in position to be near the very top of fantasy football. (DJ)
6
New England Patriots
A few things have changed for the Patriots defense in the past year or so, but two constants are head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. The Patriots ranked first in points allowed last season, which is great for fantasy leagues that reward that solely, as opposed to those leagues that also score yards allowed (the Patriots ranked eighth in that category). Patricia’s defenses have generally been quality fantasy units dating back to 2012, and this year should be no exception. The team’s secondary is now its strength, led by CB Malcolm Butler and FS Devin McCourty. The Patriots offense will again be running the show most weeks, controlling the clock, and putting their defensive counterparts in a great position to attack opposing quarterbacks trying to play from behind. It’s a high-quality fantasy unit, because of the sack and turnover opportunities afforded them because of Mr. Tom Brady and Company. (DG)
7
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks’ recent run of defensive excellence is extraordinary, they have finished in the top five for both points and yards allowed for each of the last five seasons. No other defense comes even close to that level of performance during that span. Their fantasy value hasn’t been at the same level, however, particularly last season when the loss of Earl Thomas for five games affected the secondary’s play-making ability. The structured, disciplined approach doesn’t allow them the aggressiveness to create many turnovers. As a result, only seven teams have had fewer over the last two seasons than Seattle. That combined with a pass rush that usually ranks in the middle of the pack makes this defense a safe yet unspectacular fantasy option. (JDB)
8
New York Giants
The arrival of Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison gave New York’s defense quite a boost. The Giants finished second in scoring defense and 10th in the total defense. Their performance was a bit more uneven from a fantasy perspective though. New York’s 17 interceptions were the second-most in the NFL but they failed to consistently get to opposing quarterbacks. Giants pass rushers recorded 35 sacks, which finished tied for 14th. Entering 2017, the biggest wild card could be defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. After suffering extensive damage to his right hand in July 2015, Pierre-Paul has just eight sacks over his last 20 games. (DJ)
9
Baltimore Ravens
While the Ravens defense hasn’t approached the standards once set by Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed, the current version of this fantasy unit is still good enough to serve as a starter in 10-team leagues. While they’re generally always good at keeping offenses from running up and down the field on them, gaining tons of yardage, the Ravens defense has been erratic in recent seasons as far as points allowed goes. Dean Peas returns as the Ravens defensive coordinator for the sixth consecutive season, and the biggest change from last year’s defense comes in the defensive backfield, where free agents CB Brandon Carr and FS Tony Jefferson step in. This secondary has a chance to improve in 2017. (DG)
10
Houston Texans
Solid Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers look to build on their 2016 success, when they ranked seventh in NFL defensive scoring. Any discussion of the Bucs has to start with their devastating linebacking corps, led by Kwon Alexander, the NFL’s leading solo tackle man, and
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12
Philadelphia Eagles
The switch to Jim Schwartz’s 4-3 scheme didn’t stop the Eagles from finishing as a top-10 fantasy defense for the third year in a row. Philly improved from 28th to a respectable 12th in points allowed (20.7 per game), but splash plays remained the strength of this unit despite terrible play in the secondary. The Eagles finished 10th in forced turnovers (16 picks and 10 fumbles), which was their third straight top-11 finish in that category. Schwartz’s crew also amassed five touchdowns. The Eagles will deliver plenty of splash plays as usual. A notable uptick in sacks will be a bonus. (MW)
13
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are coming off an all-around disappointing season, but there are still stars on both sides of the ball that lend to a good prospective season ahead for their defensive unit. The offense’s goal is to control the clock and pound teams into submission. They fell well short of that goal in 2016, and their defense ranked as a bottom-tier unit from a fantasy perspective. There is promise, however, with DE Aaron Donald and LB Alec Ogletree manning the first two lines of defense. (DG)
14
Without JJ Watt, the Texans are a stingy defense with a number of high-ceiling defensive stars. With a healthy JJ Watt, this could be the fantasy defense to change games week to week. Watt essentially missed the 2016 season and Houston still finished No. 1 in yards allowed. But their peripheral stats like sacks and turnovers fell significantly. It’s crazy that one player can have so much impact, but Watt’s status obviously has a big role in the Texans fantasy prospects. Couple that with the emergence of Jadeveon Clowney and there’s reason to think this defense could outperform their preseason value. (AG)
11
Lavonte David. Those two helped the Bucs rank in the top-ten in both sacks and fumble recoveries. Free agent defensive lineman Chris Baker was the key off-season signings. The team added safety Justin Evans and, for some reason, another linebacker in Kendell Beckwith in the draft. (MM)
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers ranked in the middle of the pack on defense in 2016 and will rely on early 2017 draft choices and the return of injured players to move up the defensive ranks. Big things are expected from linebacker Bud Dupree, who had 4.5 sacks late in the season after missing most of the early part of the season with a groin injury. Linebacker T.J. Watt was selected in the 1st round and cornerback Cam Sutton was selected in the 3rd round. Both need to contribute right away. More importantly, Ryan Shazier, linebacker extraordinaire, has to stay on the field. (MM)
15
Los Angeles Chargers
A young and talented Chargers defense returns to the field in 2017. While they don’t possess the most glamorous and flashiest of defenses, they have plenty of talented players capable of making big plays. Their secondary recorded an NFL-best 18 interceptions—three of which were returned for scores. Meanwhile, rookie defensive end Joey Bosa led the charge upfront with 10.5 sacks despite missing the first four games of the season. However, outside of Bosa, the Charger pass rush left a little to be desired elsewhere. (DJ)
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2017 POSITION R ANKING 2014 POSITION RANKING
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSE U
sing IDP players is one of the best ways to “change it up” in your fantasy league. And with the vast talent reserves on the other side of the ball, it’s only fair defensive players get the same adoration and hate from fantasy owners that the offensive players do. Along the defensive line, youngsters like Kahlil Mack, Joey Bosa, and Danielle Hunter are already among the elites. But don’t count out the elder statesmen. Of course future Hall of Famer JJ Watt is back and ready to make amends for his injury plagued 2016. Linebacker is perhaps where the most well-balanced athletes end up on the football field. And a majority of the guys in the top 10 have been here before. Still, this is where the top IDP picks go south, so don’t take anything for granted. It’s important to note a fall-off before it happens. Finally, the poor defensive backs get no respect. The good corners don’t see much action and the run support safeties get all the buzz. We can’t change that so, yes, hard hitters like Landon Collins and Keanu Neal are well placed on our list. But there are a couple corners who managed their way into our top 19 by sheer force of will. Read ahead to find our thoughts and freshen up on the IDP landscape. (AG)
1
Khalil Mack
Oakland Raiders
6’3, 250lb, b:February 22, 1991
The Guide considers him a defensive end, but some fantasy football sites have changed Mack’s position classification to linebacker, which torpedoes his overall value. Fantasy owners should double check his position listing in their leagues. With J.J. Watt missing virtually the entire 2016 season, Mack earned Defensive Player of the Year honors and easily dethroned the king of fantasy defensive linemen. Like Watt, the 26-year-old Mack’s rare combination of huge sack production and hefty tackle numbers makes him one of the most coveted options at the position. A proven disruptive force, Mack’s team-high 11 sacks ranked third among all linemen and fell just 1.5 quarterback takedowns short of top NFL sacker Danielle Hunter’s total. Mack’s 73 combo tackles (tied for third most at the position) included 54 solos (second most at the position), and 19 assisted stops. The fourth-year pro also racked up a career-high number of splash plays in 2016. He logged one interception, three passes defensed, five forced fumbles and three recovered fumbles. With everything status quo in Oakland for the durable-so-far Mack, he looks primed for a third straight season with 10-plus sacks and 70-plus total tackles, and another duel with Watt for top fantasy lineman honors. (MW)
2
J.J. Watt
Houston Texans
6’5, 289lbs, b:March 22, 1989
Last year we wrote that “the only thing that would prevent J.J. Watt from repeating as the top defensive lineman would be a significant injury,” and that is exactly what happened. Separate offseason surgeries to repair torn abductor muscles and a herniated disc raised questions about his readiness to start the season. As many competitors do, Watt rushed back to avoid missing any games and aggravated his back, resulting in another surgery that ended his season prematurely. When healthy, no defensive lineman can compete with the various ways that Watt impacts a game and contributes fantasy points. He annually ranks as one of the best at sacking the quarterback, is superb at knocking down passes, accumulates many solo tackles in run support, and has a knack for forcing fumbles. If he remains healthy for sixteen games, no defensive lineman will be worth more. The problem is that back issues have a tendency to recur, whether in the form of him missing weeks or simply playing through an injury at less than peak performance. The safest approach is to assume he will be worth slightly less than before. (JDB)
3
Joey Bosa
Los Angeles Chargers
6’5, 280lbs, b:July 11, 1995
With the latest NFL CBA, rookie holdouts almost become a thing of the past. But leave it to the San Diego Chargers (RIP) to bring one back. The Chargers
seemed unwilling to compromise on a couple issues salary-nerds like fantasy football magazine writers really enjoy. Bosa ended up missing the first four games of the season and then played like the best defensive lineman in the league when he returned. He burst onto the scene with a two-sack performance in his first game and then finished the year on a five-game streak of at least one sack. He also tied for the league lead in tackles for loss with 17. The Chargers have an improving defense and Bosa figures to be the centerpiece of that going forward. He is as technically sound as any edge rusher in the game, which is impressive for such a young player. He does, however, lack the physical tools that some other players around this ranking possess, so the ceiling might be a bit limited compared to Mack and Watt. (AG)
4
Jason Pierre-Paul
N.Y. Giants
6’5, 278lbs, b:January 1, 1989
\
After a gruesome fireworks mishap during a Fourth of July celebration injured both hands, Pierre-Paul played just half a season in 2015, posting just one sack. He rebounded nicely in 2016, posting seven sacks, on a stellar defensive line along with DE Olivier Vernon and DT Damon Harrison. The Giants were happy enough with J.P.P. that they signed him to a new four-year, $62 million contract, but he did need surgery to repair four other non-hand injuries, including his abdomen and groin. The Giants will lean heavily on Harrison, Pierre-Paul and Vernon to get to the quarterback, while a superb secondary takes advantage of turnover opportunities. The USF product is just 28
Photo: Action Images via Reuters / Paul Childs
Defensive Linemen
Landon Collins #1
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years old, so he has a few years left in his prime, and now that he has one of the best supporting casts in the NFL, he should remain a top-10 IDP linemen for the next few years. It should also be noted that Pierre-Paul is one of the better tackling defensive ends in the league, which obviously helps leagues that award points for tackles. (DG)
5
Carlos Dunlap
Even though Dunlap’s sack total returned to its usual level following his first double digit campaign in 2015, he remained an elite fantasy defensive lineman thanks to his fifteen passes defensed, the second highest total for a defensive lineman in NFL history. That came out of nowhere, Dunlap registered only one pass defensed the previous year, and his career high coming into the season was only five. It may have developed as a response to the increase in double teams he faced following his increased effectiveness at getting to the quarterback. He does have a history of evolving as a defensive player, having begun his career as a situational pass rusher before establishing himself as a fantasy force by developing as an asset against the run, then culminating with his career high in sacks. His ability to repeat his passes defensed performance will determine how valuable he is, but Dunlap will be a top defensive lineman regardless due to the numerous ways in which he contributes. (JDB)
Danielle Hunter Minnesota Vikings
6’5, 252lbs, b:October 29, 1994
We saw the promise Hunter displayed as a rookie. He made the top 20 in this section last year despite not playing as a starter in 2015. His talent, of course, shone bright and the puzzle pieces came together beautifully. Hunter finished third in the league, and tied for most at the defensive line position, with 12.5 sacks to go along with 32 solo tackles and 22 assists. All of this happened, meanwhile, with him again technically not starting. That makes Hunter the best “situational pass rusher” in the league, but it means there is room for growth in Minnesota. There are notions the Vikings might play with their roster a bit, to get Hunter more time on the field. Should that happen, this lofty ranking will seem modest by the season’s halfway point. It might also help Hunter build on his 11 tackles for loss last season. It’s an area that would catapult him into the elite top options at the position. (AG)
7
8
Aaron Donald
Los Angeles Rams 6’1, 285lbs, b:May 23, 1991
For three years now, Donald has terrorized interior offensive lines in the NFC West, but from a fantasy perspective, his 2016 effort ranks as the worst, with “only” eight sacks. Of course, that’s still good enough to tie him for 12th at his position. The Rams defense was disappointing as a whole in 2016, but Donald is expected to become one of the highest paid at his position at just 26 years old. According to NFL.com’s Next-Gen Stats, Donald’s 3.9 average yards from the QB when they look to
Olivier Vernon
Players switching teams and signing huge free-agent contracts can be worrisome. Vernon, however, so far has proven himself worthy of the record-setting five-year, $85 million deal that he inked last offseason. During his first go-around with Big Blue as the starting right defensive end in their attacking 4-3 scheme, he helped jumpstart what had been a nonexistent pass rush with a team-high 8.5 sacks, which was the second-highest total of his career and the 10th most among all linemen. Vernon’s 64 total tackles (46 solo stops and 18 assists) also finished just inside the top 10 at the position. The words “safe and solid” are printed in big letters on Vernon’s fantasy football business card. During the last three years, Vernon, who turns just 27 in October, has averaged a solid 7.5 sacks, 39.7 solo tackles and 17.7 assisted stops per season. The sixth-year pro also has never missed a start. (MW)
9
Calais Campbell
Jacksonville Jaguars
After nine above-average seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, the University of Miami product heads east to join a Jaguars defense that has recharged for the second offseason in a row with some high-profile additions. His presence should immediately help those around him, much like he did for DE Chandler Jones and Co. in the desert. But from a fantasy perspective, offenses prefer to run against the Jaguars, which limits sack opportunities for guys like Campbell. One important trait IDP owners should consider about Campbell in comparison with other defensive linemen is that he’s a gamer, playing in 138 of 144 regular season games since he entered the league. While his ceiling isn’t the highest (he has never posted 10 sacks in a season), his floor remains considerably high, averaging 7.25 sacks over his past six seasons in Arizona. (DG)
Cameron Jordan New Orleans Saints
6’4, 287lbs, b:July 10, 1989
The frequently overlooked Jordan, one of the NFL’s elite defensive ends, is the best player on a defense that has been a train wreck for years. Despite playing with a sprained MCL during a good part of the 2016 season, Jordan, the team’s leading sacker in four of the last five years, topped the Saints with 7.5 quarterback takedowns. He also notched 40 solo tackles, which was one short of Jordan’s career best, and 18 assisted stops. In addition, he compiled six passes defensed, which is right around his usual total, but other types of splash plays remain very rare for him. From 2012 through 2016, the consistent Jordan averaged a rock-solid 9.1 sacks, 34.6 solo tackles and 18.8 assisted stops per season, and there’s every reason
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Muhammad Wilkerson New York Jets
HIs production fell across the board in 2016 following a career year which resulted in him securing a lucrative contract. The Jets’ have blamed an assortment of nagging injuries for his decreased numbers, and the team’s general dysfunction probably contributed as well. Whatever the cause, the result was dramatically reduced effectiveness in rushing the passer. Not only did his sacks fall from a career high, his hurries also dropped significantly, showing that he simply was not as effective at collapsing the pocket and getting after the quarterback. Whether or not the team’s culture improves this season, the offense is likely to remain putrid, which will result in more opportunities to rack up numbers if Wilkerson can regain some of the ability he showed before the big contract. It would be fair to see last season as a floor and the prior season as a ceiling. (JDB)
12
DeForest Buckner San Francisco 49ers
6’7, 300lbs, b:March 17, 1994
6’8, 300, b:September 1, 1986
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to think that he’ll approach that level of production again. Uncommonly durable, Jordan, who turned 28 in July, has never missed a game in his six-year career. (MW)
6’4, 315lbs, b:October 22, 1989
New York Giants
6’2, 275lbs, b:October 7, 1990
Cincinnati Bengals
6’6, 280lbs, b:February 28, 1989
6
throw the ball is the best in the NFL among interior linemen. One problem for fantasy owners, however, is that the Rams have the second-worst schedule for a defensive lineman this season, which means he’ll be facing tough offensive lines throughout much of the season. (DG)
Buckner’s fantasy prospects are interesting because they don’t hinge on his talent level. Buckner has that in spades. He’s big, powerful, and speedy (for a guy his size). He used that combination to garner 43 solos and 30 assists in 2016. But the 49ers are installing a new 4-3 defense this year, which could have a varied impact on Buckner. Another issue is the San Francisco draft, in which they added first-rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster. Buckner got a lot of mileage out of tackle totals last year and they figure to be tougher to come by with so many athletic defenders flying around the field. On the flip side, the added talent could free Buckner up for more sacks. He was one of the league’s best quarterback terrorizers last season, even if he only actually got six sacks. (AG)
13
Everson Griffen
Minnesota Vikings
6’3, 273lbs, b:December 22, 1987
Racking up 30.5 quarterback takedowns in the last three seasons, “Sack Daddy” continues to live up to his nickname. The right defensive end in the Vikings’ lethal 4-3 scheme is coming off yet another impressive season. He compiled eight sacks (tied for 11th among all linemen), 36 solo stops, and 12 assists, and threw in his usual half dozen or so splash plays, which included scoring his first career touchdown on a fumble recovery. Turning 30 in December, the still-in-his-prime and durable Griffen (one missed game in the last six years) has amassed consistent numbers over the last three seasons, averaging 10.2 quarterback takedowns, 36 solo stops and 13 assists per year. Operating on a defensive line that’s loaded down with some of the NFL’s best pass-rushing talent will continue to cap his production, but Griffen will keep squeezing fantasy points out of his frequent one-on-one matchups. (MW)
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IDP
POSITION RANKING
14
Ezekiel Ansah
Detroit Lions
6’5, 278lbs, b:May 29, 1989
Anyone just looking at Ansah’s stats from last season would immediately dismiss him from IDP consideration this season. But there’s much more to the story than his two sacks in 13 games played, and some deeper investigation turns his bad stats into great fantasy value. A bum ankle slowed the defensive end down at the beginning of the season, followed by a shoulder injury in Week 14. With no sacks in the first 13 games of the season, most IDP owners had moved on, but he had two sacks in his final three games, and another two sacks in a playoff game at Seattle. With DL2 draft value and DL1 potential, Ansah makes for a good IDP bounceback candidate. He had 14.5 sacks in 2015! (DG)
15
Fletcher Cox
Philadelphia Eagles
6’4, 300lbs, b:December 13, 1990
There was an expectation that new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s system would elevate Cox to new heights by allowing him the freedom to penetrate and attack the football. Unfortunately, that was not the case, as Cox produced his fewest tackles since his rookie season while also experiencing a significant decline in sacks and hurries. Blessed with incredible quickness but somewhat undersized for the middle, it is possible that Cox simply is better suited as a 3-4 defensive end playing the five technique rather than a 4-3 defensive tackle playing the three technique, especially because lining up over the guard makes it easier for opposing offensive lines to double team him by sliding the center his way. While doing so opens up opportunities for Fletcher’s teammates, it suppresses his statistics. (JDB)
16
Yannick Ngakoue Jacksonville Jaguars
6’2, 250lbs, b:March 31, 1995
Ngakoue was a mid-round selection for the Jaguars, so it’s pretty understandable that he escaped the attention of many experts last year. In fact, he’s still a relatively obscure pick on draft day, but he shouldn’t be. As a rookie, he exploded for eight sacks, good for second among rookies behind only Joey Bosa. Now, Ngakoue is a safe starter and should be expected to approach double-digit sacks, which should work for fantasy squads. The obvious bugaboo here is the lack of anything else on the stat sheet. Ngakoue only totaled 20 solo tackles and barely factored in defending running games. (AG)
17
Kawann Short
Carolina Panthers
6’3, 315lbs, b:February 2, 1989
IDP owners should consider the Panthers’ recent investment in Short as a scouting key to the 28-year-old defensive tackle. Carolina signed the Purdue product to a five-year, $80 million deal this winter, keeping him from testing the free agent waters in 2018. He has never missed a game in his four-year NFL career. Pro Football Focus ranked him just behind defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh last season, but from a fantasy
perspective, he needs to get back to double-digit sacks, like the 11 he got in 2015. His six sacks last year weren’t dismissible, but showed he had better NFL value than fantasy value. (DG)
18
Leonard Williams
New York Jets
6’5, 298lbs, b:June 20, 1994
Displaying vastly improved play and a better command of the playbook, Williams, the Jets’ 2015 first-round selection, put together a nice breakout campaign on a stop unit that took a step backwards during a very disappointing season. As the only consistently effective defensive line starter for Gang Green, Williams topped the team with a career-high seven sacks (19th among all linemen). He also amassed 36 solo tackles and 32 assisted stops, which almost mirrored his rookie-season production in those two categories. Williams’ two forced fumbles do show limited fantasy upside, however. If Williams’ teammate, pass-rushing force Muhammed Wilkerson, can rebound from a down campaign (a slow recovery from a nasty leg injury clearly impacted his play last season), Williams should see more one-onone playmaking opportunities. He’s a lock to build on a promising 2016. (MW)
19
Ndamukong Suh MIAMI DOLPHINS
6’4, 307lbs, b:January 6, 1987
Ndamukong Suh is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, yet his fantasy statistics have been mostly pedestrian, in large part due to the difficulty that defensive tackles have accumulating numbers that affect fantasy scoring. While he is excellent at collapsing the pocket and hurrying the quarterback, he hasn’t produced double-digit sacks since his rookie season, and many of his tackles are assisted rather than solo. Suh does add a handful of pass deflections each year, but he will need to rediscover some of his pass rushing prowess to have more fantasy appeal. (JDB))
Linebackers 1
Kwon Alexander
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6’2, 227lbs, b:August 3, 1994
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense has gone through some turbulent swings in recent years, including a change in coordinators, but the one consistent element has been the productivity of the team’s linebackers. Alexander continued that tradition by leading all linebackers in fantasy points last season, due to the combination of a scheme in which he could flow freely to the football with his speed and technique to consistently bring down the ball carrier. Because he is undersized for a linebacker, he depends on the defensive line to keep blockers at bay. The front four consistently accomplished that task last season, and as a result Alexander led all defenders in solo tackles by a significant margin. Another major factor in his breakout season was a dramatic improvement in his missed tackle rate, something that had undermined his performance as a rookie. Alexander’s ability to roam sideline to sideline while also adding a handful of sacks and
passes defensed makes him a truly elite option for fantasy defenses. (JDB)
2
Luke Kuechly
Carolina Panthers 6’3, 238lbs, b:April 20, 1991
Growing concern about the 26-year-old Kuechly’s durability—he has missed nine games in the last two seasons—is the main reason why one of the NFL’s best linebackers and elite fantasy options at the position has been demoted from the top spot in the linebacker rankings. Last season Kuechly sat out six contests with his second concussion in as many years. Prorating the tackle production from his injury-shortened campaign—71 solo tackles and 31 assisted stops—over a full 16-game slate yields 164 total tackles, which would have ranked second at the position, so he’s obviously still a tackling machine. Not to detract from Kuechly’s excellent skill set, but his impressive tackle production is also the product of a 4-3 scheme that’s designed to use the Mike linebacker as the featured tackler with very few pass-rushing duties. The sixth-year pro has compiled just nine career quarterback takedowns, and, despite his big-play ability, Kuechly has usually been good for just a dozen or so splash plays per season. Don’t think twice about the coordinator switch to Steve Wilks since he’s keeping Sean McDermott’s scheme. Kuechly will continue to do just about everything on a top level – except perhaps stay healthy – and remains a top-five IDP selection. (MW)
3
Alec Ogletree Los Angeles Rams
6’2, 245lbs, b:September 25, 1991
Since coming into the league in 2013, Ogletree has excelled as a punishing tackler. Last year, he set career highs in solo tackles and assisted tackles. His tackle total was good enough to tie Telvin Smith for fourth in the league. He also defended 11 passes, which put him in a tie for first among linebackers. It was a great bounceback season for Ogletree, who missed most of 2015 with a broken fibula. There are some areas where he could improve, though. He doesn’t attack the quarterback all that much. He also dropped off in his forced fumbles last year after totaling 10 in his first two seasons. Luckily, the Rams didn’t do anything in the offseason to change Ogletree’s outlook. Aaron Donald will occupy blockers and Ogletree’s speed and size will allow him to matchup with just about any tight end in the league. (AG)
4
Bobby Wagner Seattle Seahawks 6’0, 241lbs, b:June 27, 1990
Wagner is probably one of the least-celebrated defensive superstars in the NFL, but his play in the middle of the Seahawks defense is extraordinary in its volume, as far as fantasy owners are concerned. He was the one of the top-three IDP linebackers by most scoring systems last season, following up a top-15 effort in 2015. What makes him extraordinary is that he’s scoring most of his points the old-fashioned way, piling up tons of tackles—both solo and assisted. His 167 total tackles led the NFL last season—five-percent better than the second-best tackler in the league! The two-time All-Pro will turn 27 years old this season, in the prime of his
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career, and IDP owners have to like the slight decline in Seattle’s defense. They ranked 17th in scrimmage plays last year, allowing for more tackle opportunities for Wagner. With just one expected new starter on defense, Wagner should again get tons of tackle chances. (DG)
5
NaVorro Bowman San Francisco 49ers
6’0, 242lbs, b:May 28, 1988
Although Bowman is coming off his second major injury in the last three seasons, the middle linebacker in new defensive coordinator Rob Saleh’s Seattle style 4-3 scheme is now healthy and good to go. Bowman missed all of 2014 after surgery to address a very gruesome knee injury that he suffered during the 2013 playoffs. Last season he was leading all defensive players in fantasy points per game and was on pace to amass 96 solo tackles and 44 assisted stops before going down with a season-ending Achilles’ tendon injury in Week 4. When healthy, this high-volume tackler is the heart and soul of a 49ers defense that will spend a ton of time on the field as usual, which is obviously a plus for fantasy owners. Of course, extended playing time increases the 29-year-old Bowman chances of wearing down or suffering another injury. (MW)
6
Telvin Smith
Jacksonville Jaguars
6’3, 223lbs, b:April 11, 1991
The Jaguars basically have three guys who do all their tackling, which makes it tough for offenses to key on any one in particular. But Smith has the advantage over the other two, linebacker Paul Posluszny and hybrid linebacker/safety Jonathan Cyprien, because of his position and durability. Smith has only missed two games in his three seasons and should finish with around 100 solo tackles for the third consecutive year. He has a very cerebral feel for the game, which helps explain why he excels at getting runners down in the backfield. He was one of the best linebackers in the game at that with 14 tackles for loss last season. (AG)
7
Jamie Collins
Cleveland BROWNs 6’4, 250lbs, b:May 2, 1990
In Collins’ fourth season in the NFL, the Patriots traded him midseason to the Browns, and it seemed to work out for all parties concerned. His tackle stats increased about 50-percent with the Browns from his time with the Patriots, and he’s once again a top-10 linebacker for IDP play. Considering the Browns’ bottom-dwelling offense, their defensive counterparts are expected to be on the field a lot once again in 2017, which is a very good thing for Collins’ IDP owners. Just three NFL defenses in 2017 had more scrimmage plays than Cleveland’s 1,067. (DG)
8
Sean Lee
Dallas Cowboys
6’2, 234lbs, b:July 22, 1986
Lee has been a consistently productive player when on the field. Unfortunately, he has missed thirty-seven games over his seven professional seasons. Last year would have marked his first full
campaign if the team had not rested him during the final week of the regular season. What is interesting about his breakout performance last year is that it came almost entirely from a monstrous tackles total, and he was particularly valuable in leagues that do not differentiate between solo and assisted tackles. Previously, he had been more of an asset against the pass thanks to his penchant for pass deflections and interceptions, but moving from middle linebacker to weakside linebacker limited his opportunities to make plays in coverage. (JDB)
9
CJ Mosley
Baltimore Ravens
6’2, 235lbs, b:June 19, 1992
Mosley is one of the league’s more versatile linebackers. He suffered a decline in tackles last year, but offset that with four interceptions. He is also a capable quarterback rusher, as his seven sacks in his first two seasons attests. Mosley should also benefit from the unfortunate injury situation of former teammate Zach Orr, who was a big reason for Mosley’s tackle fall when he exploded for 89 last year. But a spinal injury has forced Orr into an early retirement making those tackles available, a decent percentage of which should logically go to Mosley. Factoring in Mosley’s coverage ability, if his tackles and sacks bounce back, he’s as much of a sleeper as there can be in the top 10 linebacker rankings. (AG)
10
Ryan Shazier
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Minnesota Vikings
He struggled with a concussion and a hip injury last season, yet he still came through with more than 100 tackles in his second NFL season. Outside of a Week 1 interception return for a touchdown and a 2.5-sack game against the Packers on Christmas Day, Kendricks wasn’t much of a big-play guy in 2016. The Vikings happen to have a tough strength of schedule for linebackers entering 2017, also. With a relatively high floor though low ceiling, this third-year linebacker makes a nice late IDP pick. (DG)
13
Haason Reddick
Arizona Cardinals
6’1, 237lbs, b:September 22, 1994
Having been a running back and safety in high school, Reddick had to walk on at Temple despite his speed and athleticism because of doubts about his size and strength to play linebacker. Once on the field he showed not only range and cover skills but also the ability to get behind the line of scrimmage for sacks and tackles for loss. For Arizona he will reportedly be asked to serve at inside linebacker. His playing time will need to be monitored during the preseason given that the team returns last season’s starters at that position. (JDB)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Thomas Davis
Carolina Panthers 6’1, 235lbs, b:March 22, 1983
Shazier has now posted back-to-back solid seasons in Mike Tomlin’s defense, following up a very good rookie season, but he has battled injuries throughout his career. He has missed 14 of 48 NFL regular season games, but when he does play there are few more dynamic linebackers in the game. With a dozen passes defended last season, Shazier ranked among the leaders at his position, which is something to consider in leagues that award points for that statistic. For traditional IDP leagues, Shazier will turn just 25 years old just before Week 1, and his upside is considerable—if he can ever get past the injuries that have hampered him so far in his NFL career. (DG)
Deion Jones
Atlanta Falcons
6’1, 222lbs, b:November 4, 1994
One of the fastest and most athletic linebackers in the NFL, Jones was expected to be something of a project due to having only a single season of collegiate starting experience under his belt. The Falcons made him a second-round pick due to his potential, yet Jones seized a starting job in training camp and graded well across the board. His ability to contribute against the run or the pass makes him a consistent producer regardless of the offense he is facing. Missed tackles were his main weakness, as his speed caused him to overrun plays at times, but that should improve with experience. Given his elite physical ability and the type of defensive scheme he plays in, Deion is a high floor player with the potential to rank much further up this list a year from now. (JDB)
Eric Kendricks 6’0, 232lbs, b:February 29, 1992
14
6’1, 230lbs, b:January 14, 1992
11
12
Davis, the “other” tackling machine in the Panthers defense, topped Carolina with 106 combo stops in 2016 and has averaged 100-plus total tackles per season during the last five years. Flashing some recent improvement in the playmaking department, Davis has compiled seven picks, 11 passes defensed, five forced fumbles and three recovered fumbles (one returned for a score) in the last two years. Because he turned 34 in March, the Panthers dropped some subtle preseason hints about dialing back Davis’ reps to rest him a little more. (MW)
15
Vontaze Burfict
Cincinnati Bengals
6’1, 250lbs, b:September 24, 1990
As is the case every year, there are a number of parallel timelines where Burfict leads the league in tackles and sets IDP owners’ hearts on fire. But injuries and suspensions have robbed him of 22 games over the last three years. Burfict enters 2017 both healthy and unsuspended, which is a nice change of pace. While on the field, Burfict can do it all. Just look at his Pro Bowl 2013 season, where he played 16 games, had 115 solo tackles, 8 pass defenses, 3 sacks, and changed fantasy leagues across the country. That’s the ceiling here. But the risk of injury or bad behavior effectively suppresses Burfict’s value. (AG)
16
Benardrick McKinney Houston Texans
6’4, 246lbs, b:November 19, 1992
Benardrick McKinney is an impressively large human being with
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IDP
POSITION RANKING
surprising speed who has found his niche in Houston as a ferocious run stuffer and occasional blitzer. In pass coverage he does a good job of keeping everything in front of him and then preventing yards after the catch, but that doesn’t do much for his fantasy value given that he has only two pass deflections and no interceptions for his career. McKinney’s value comes from tackles, which means that he is best used situationally for fantasy purposes against offenses that favor running between the tackles and short passes over the middle. (JDB)
17
Lavonte David
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6’1, 233lbs, b:January 23, 1990
The Buccaneers’ new defensive scheme has elevated Kwon Alexander to IDP stud status and torpedoed the fantasy value of the once-elite David. After averaging 140-plus total tackles per season during his first four years in the NFL, David compiled a career-low 87 total tackles (67 solos and 20 assisted tackles) last season. The huge decline in his stops wasn’t a fluke. Tackle opportunities in coordinator Mike Smith’s 4-3 scheme are funneled to Alexander by design. The athletic 27-year-old David operates as a Will linebacker, so he was still able to contribute his usual number of splash plays. (MW)
18
Jordan Hicks
Philadelphia Eagles 6’1, 236lbs, b:June 27, 1992
It’s not as safe as tackles, but Hicks’ fantasy value is tied heavily to his ability as a coverage linebacker. He led linebackers in both interceptions and passes defended in 2016. His tackle totals were subpar and he didn’t really do much in any other major statistical category. Hicks is essentially the shutdown corner of linebackers. Tackles are where the safe value stems from, so Hicks will be lucky to make any impact most weeks. But when he does, it’s a big play capable of changing a fantasy game. (AG)
19
Preston Brown
Buffalo Bills
6’1, 251lbs, b:October 27, 1992
Brown entered the 2017 NFL offseason with the idea he’d be the starting middle linebacker in new head coach Sean McDermott’s 4-3 defense. But his bruiser body might not be built for Leslie Frazier’s defense, which would normally require a faster, more athletic linebacker. Brown could be moved in a trade at some point, but if he starts as the MLB, he’s essentially guaranteed over 100 tackles once again in his third NFL season. (DG))
Defensive Backs 1
Landon Collins
N.Y. Giants
6’0, 225lbs, b:January 10, 1993
No Individual Defensive Player outplayed the others at his position like Collins did in 2016. He delivers stats for points in nearly every defensive category, and he’s entering just his third NFL season. The Giants defense was one of the most improved last year, and they’ve now had a full year
working together, with just one expected new starter for 2017. The impressive pass rush sets everything up, while Collins and his teammates take advantage of the quarterback’s mistakes. Collins can lay the lumber, while remaining one of the best playmakers in the NFC East. He was second among NFL defensive backs in tackles (and 1st in solo tackles), and just four players had more interceptions. That combination means he’ll score points regularly with the tackles, but he has IDP home-run ability with turnovers and pick-six opportunities. (DG)
2
Reshad Jones Miami Dolphins
stops and 33 assisted tackles), which ranked second on the Falcons and fourth among all defensive backs. Quickly establishing himself as an enforcer in a secondary that desperately needed one, Neal has earned a well-deserved nod as one of the hardest hitting guys at the position in the NFL. He also chipped in nine passes defensed, five forced fumbles and one recovered fumble. Neal also ranked in the top five for fantasy points scored among defensive backs, and he’s a lock to improve his fantasy production in 2017 if he plays a full season. (MW)
5
6’1, 218lbs, b:February 25, 1986
Welcome to the wacky world of defensive back fantasy football where pass defense doesn’t matter and letting a guy catch a ball before bringing him down is the best play. Okay, okay, Jones has some pass defending bonafides. He garnered five interceptions during a pro-bowl 2015 campaign, but that was pretty secondary (pun...intended) to his ranking, which had more to do with the 106 solo tackles that season. Last year ended up being a wash thanks to a rotator cuff injury. It cost him 10 games, but hopefully will be a minor blip on an otherwise happy string of big fantasy years. The Dolphins obviously didn’t have long-term worries since they extended his deal through 2021. (AG)
3
Johnathan Cyprien
Tennessee TItans 6’0, 223lbs, b:July 29, 1990
Cyprien is a safety with pronounced strengths and weaknesses. Arguably no defensive back in professional football is better against the run, as he combines great instincts for understanding where the play is going with the ability to elude blockers and take down the ball carrier. Used as a box safety where his coverage responsibilities are minimized, Cyprien essentially functions as an extra linebacker who stifles the opponent’s rushing attack. Against the pass, he simply does not show the fluidity to stick with receivers downfield or the anticipation to break up passes before the completion, which limits his interceptions and deflections. He posted his best season last year with Jacksonville when the team adjusted its scheme to play him closer to the line of scrimmage, and it is reasonable to expect Tennessee to employ him in a similar manner after signing him to a substantial contract in free agency, especially given Dick LeBeau’s history of utilizing three safeties in the team’s dime package. (JDB)
4
Keanu Neal
Atlanta Falcons
6’0, 211lbs, b:July 26, 1995
Is this guy the next Kam Chancellor? Falcons head coach Dan Quinn, who directed the Seahawks defense from 2013 to 2014, wanted his own version of Seattle’s hard-hitting safety to anchor the secondary in Atlanta’s Seattle-type scheme, and it looks like he found one in Neal. Despite missing the first two games of the regular season due to a knee scope, Neal, the 17th overall selection in the 2016 draft, made an instant impact, compiling 105 combo tackles (72 solo
Harrison Smith Minnesota Vikings
6’2, 214lbs, b:February 2, 1989
With just two interceptions over the past two years, Smith would seem to be an IDP player on the decline. But the free safety offers enough fantasy help because of his tackling ability that he doesn’t necessarily need the big plays to rack up points. As a matter of fact, Smith’s 404 total tackles in his first five seasons ranks better than the first five seasons of many of the game’s greatest safeties. While Smith’s fantasy points pushed him back a couple tiers last season, he’s worth drafting among the top-5 defensive backs because of his consistency in the tackles column. The Vikings also happen to have one of the best strength of schedules for defensive backs, and Smith had four interceptions returned for touchdowns in the first four seasons of his career. (DG)
6
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Green Bay Packers
6’1, 208lbs, b:December 21, 1992
Clinton-Dix had been a nice IDP play for his first couple seasons based entirely on his tackling. He had 157 total solo tackles combined in that timespan. But he did not show as a ball-hawk. That changed last season as he exploded for five interceptions, good for fifth in the league. Clinton-Dix’s main value is still going to be his ability to step up and take on running backs. As long as he can hover around the 75 solo tackle mark, he’ll have value. It is therefore worth monitoring how the Green Bay defense adapts their top two draft picks from this season, corner Kevin King and safety Josh Jones. (AG)
7
Tony Jefferson
Baltimore Ravens
5’11, 213lbs, b:January 27, 1992
Last season, Jefferson established himself as one of the league’s better all-around safeties, combining excellence in coverage with consistent performance against the run. Originally undrafted due to a poor time in the forty-yard dash, along with his relatively small stature for a strong safety, he spent his first three seasons with the Cardinals as a valuable substitute and occasional starter. Even when on the field, his fantasy numbers haven’t always reflected the quality of his play, as he does a better job of preventing completions than deflecting passes, and his aversion to risk-taking doesn’t lend itself to interceptions. A change in schemes from Arizona to Baltimore may change that, so it will be interesting to see how the Ravens use him during the preseason. (JDB)
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8
Morgan Burnett Green Bay Packers
6’1, 209lbs, b:January 13, 1989
He’s not just a classic in-the-box safety anymore. Utilizing Burnett’s versatile skill set, the Packers moved him around frequently in a hybrid role last season. He saw regular action at strong safety, slot corner and linebacker, but Burnett still continued to generate the bulk of his fantasy points as a run defender. He finished ninth among all defensive backs with 91 total tackles (68 solo stops and 23 assists). Consistently productive when healthy, he has racked up at least 90-plus total stops in five of his last six seasons. While Burnett clearly has some nice athleticism, his 2016 list of peripheral plays included just a career-high three sacks, two picks (highest total since 2012), nine passes defensed (highest total since 2011) and one fumble recovery. Burnett has struggled with durability, missing 10 games in the last four seasons mainly due to nagging calf and groin injuries. (MW)
9
Malcolm Jenkins
Philadelphia Eagles
6’0, 204lbs, b:December 20, 1987
Jenkins has been around the block, but he’s still a capable safety and is just a couple years removed from a Pro Bowl nod. Last year was one of transition, as he was used in coverage a bit more. It led to a dip in his tackle numbers, going from 86 solos in 2015 to just 44 in 2016. Still, if his value is a bit depressed this year, all the better for shrewd fantasy owners! The Eagles added two corners in the draft, and Rasul Douglas could allow Jenkins to go back to having the more free-roaming role he enjoyed in his big fantasy years. (AG)
10
Jamal Adams New York Jets
6’0, 214lbs, b:October 17, 1995
The rookie sixth-overall selection will start in Week 1 and fills a glaring need in a Gang Green secondary that was absolutely awful last season. Gifted with excellent size and functional strength, Adams is a tough, physical and disciplined in-the-box sledgehammer known for defending the run super aggressively. He also has enough speed (4.56 wheels) to play centerfield and cover tight ends, and can shadow most slot wideouts effectively if necessary. IAdams dominated a college matchup against rocket-fast Evan Engram (Giants), holding him to just three catches for 15 yards. What about Adams’ fantasy prospects? Facing very little serious competition for tackles, his situation is excellent. Already drawing comparisons to Landon Collins (Giants), Adams has top-10 IDP upside as a high-floor instant impact safety. (MW)
11
Marcus Peters
K ansas City Chiefs
expected—and Peters comes through with them by the handful. No NFL player has caught more interceptions than the 14 Peters recorded in 2015 and 2016 combined. The Chiefs right cornerback locks down his side of the field, and remains a good fantasy starter in IDP play because of his playmaking ability. (DG)
12
6’0, 211lbs, b:December 29, 1988
13
Arizona Cardinals
5’9, 186lbs, b:May 13, 1992
While the Honey Badger doesn’t care about IDP scoring, fantasy owners definitely care about Mathieu’s health – or lack thereof! His 2013 and 2015 seasons ended with torn ACLs, and his 2016 season stopped short with a shoulder subluxation, which is a fancy way of saying he partially dislocated his shoulder. Entering 2017, Mathieu’s knees appear to be in fine order, and his shoulder was close to 100 percent at the start of summer. Mathieu is the rare defensive back with the ability to make huge plays and rack up tackles like a linebacker. (DG)
14
T.J. Ward
Denver Broncos
5’10, 199lbs, b:December 12, 1986
T.J. Ward’s calling card is his punishing tackling, having been an effective run-stopping strong safety for the Denver Broncos in each of the last three seasons. That aggressive style has its downside, as he has missed seventeen regular season games over his last six seasons, including six over the last two years with a concussion and an ankle injury. His physicality can be an asset on coverage when it is used to disrupt opposing tight ends and limit the damage of short passes. He struggles when asked to cover downfield, but still adds some pass deflections and the occasional interception. The other major factor limiting his fantasy appeal is the talent surrounding him on the Broncos’ defense, as Ward does not receive as many opportunities to make plays as some other safeties enjoy. (JDB)
15
Karl Joseph
Oakland Raiders
5’10, 205lbs, b:September 8, 1993
Tyrann Mathieu
Reggie Nelson
Oakland Raiders
5’11, 210lbs, b:September 21, 1983
Nelson moved from his longtime Bengals gig to the Raiders last year, but kept up his pilfering ways. Nelson pulled in five interceptions, a mild decline
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16
K ansas City Chiefs
Eric Berry returning to the field after being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma was impressive enough, but in his second season back he reestablished himself as one of the best safeties in the league. Blessed with the size of a safety and the agility of a cornerback, Eric’s exceptional cover skills make him a consistent source of pass deflections and interceptions while shutting down opposing tight ends. That proficiency helps explain why his fantasy value is not commensurate with his value to the Chiefs, as teams avoid him in the passing game whenever possible. Berry is a gifted run defender as well, but his value in coverage means that he is not around the line of scrimmage as often as some other safeties. (JDB)
6’0, 197lbs, b:January 9, 1993
After becoming the 2015 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year out of Washington, Peters continued to excel in his sophomore season to become a first-team All-Pro cornerback in 2016. Drafting an elite cornerback for IDP leagues means interceptions are
Eric Berry
from his league leading eight in 2015. He has chipped in double-digit pass defenses each of the last three years and still manages to tack on some tackles. Nelson isn’t an elite fantasy option because interceptions and pass defense are just more inconsistent than tackles are, but he can’t be ignored on draft day. (AG)
He suited up for just 12 games (nine starts) and didn’t rack up huge fantasy stats, but Joseph, the 14th overall selection in the 2016 draft, showed regular flashes of his elite talent and tons of promise last season. Joseph finished with 60 combo tackles (6.8 per game) and chipped in one pick, six passes defensed and one recovered fumble. Now more than one year removed from a college ACL injury, Joseph looks primed for a sophomore year leap as a full-time starter. He has a great chance to out-produce this ranking. (MW)
17
Barry Church
Jacksonville Jaguars
6’2, 218lbs, b:February 11, 1988
Anytime an IDP owner can get a former linebacker-turned-safety on your team, that’s a good thing, especially if he’s a strong safety expected to play a lot of offenses that want to run the ball. With the Cowboys, Church became an IDP beast, averaging over 110 tackles over the past four seasons. He’s replacing Jonathan Cyprien in the Jaguars’ defensive huddle, and Cyprien posted the second-most fantasy points among defensive backs in IDP formats last season. Choosing Church on NFL Sundays is the righteous way to go. (DG)
18
Josh Norman
Washington
6’0, 203lbs, b:December 15, 1987
Josh Norman’s numbers do not accurately reflect how impressive he was in his first season with Washington because better cornerbacks are targeted less frequently and have fewer opportunities to contribute to stats. When quarterbacks did throw his way, Norman had one of the highest percentages for disrupting the pass in the league, but there simply weren’t enough opportunities. Unlike some other gifted cover corners, Josh is a very willing defender in run support with the size and aggressiveness to bring down running backs. (JDB)
19
Kurt Coleman
Carolina Panthers
5’11, 200lbs, b:July 1, 1989
The underrated 29-yearold ball hawk can play both safety positions, but the Panthers have him slotted as a strong safety. Coleman is coming off the two best seasons of his career, averaging 92.5 combo tackles per campaign, which is top-10 production among defensive backs. He also racked up an impressive 11 interceptions (two were pick-sixes), 16 passes defensed and one forced fumble in that time frame. Since Carolina upgraded its secondary, it looks like Coleman’s tackle numbers will dip a bit. (MW)
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Give Me Daily Strength 2017: Exploiting Defenses Position X Position By Doug Anderson
Daily Fantasy Football Sets Us Free
2016 FPAbP for the FanDuel Scoring System
In the daily fantasy game, however, we are no longer restrained. Each owner puts together an all new team each and every week. It is now not only much easier to maximize point totals—by targeting players with only the very best matchups, position by position—it is imperative.
In the tables below you will find the 2016 Fantasy Points Allowed by Position for each of the skill positions. Obviously no team is exactly the same from year to year. Teams have made many offseason changes in the hopes of addressing some of the weaknesses we’re trying to exploit. They’ve added and subtracted players and may have new coaches with totally different schemes. Elsewhere in this magazine you can read about these changes and how they might affect each team, but in my experience it’s very dangerous to assume that such changes will drastically change a defense.
Thus, Fantasy Points Allowed by Position (FPAbP), a metric that had seen limited use in traditional fantasy, suddenly becomes a daily-fantasy player’s best friend. FPAbP simply measures how many points each NFL defense allows to each position, on average. The idea is that each defense has a mix of players and skills that are better (or worse) at stopping (or facilitating) DFS point scoring by each offensive position. FPAbP is, despite its acronym, a very straightforward way to evaluate the matchups that each NFL player is faced with each week.
For the first three or four games of each season I find that the previous year’s FPAbP numbers are very helpful. As the season progresses we can incorporate more recent data, which gains validity with each passing week. FPAbP should be a huge weapon in every Daily Fantasy player’s arsenal.
Photo: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Since the very beginning fantasy football players have tried to exploit NFL defenses and their weaknesses, basing many of their start/sit decisions on the week’s matchups. The problem in traditional season-long leagues has been that the options were limited to the players on your rosters, or free agents (in other words, the guys nobody else wanted). Thus was born the axiom, “You never sit your studs.” When your other options are backup running backs or questionable third receivers, that is sage advice.
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Defenses to Target The tables below show the 10 teams that allowed the most fantasy points to each of the skill positions. The first three columns show the team, its rank, and its average fantasy points allowed for that position. The last four columns show that team’s opponents for the first four weeks of the season. It is from these teams that you’ll want to draw from to build the meat of your Daily Fantasy Football lineups.
FPA to QBs Rk TEAM FPA/G
Week
FPA to RBs
1
2
3
4
Rk TEAM FPA/G
GB
@DET
BUF
1
SEA
Week 1
2
3
4
29.7
@GB
SF
@TEN
IND
PIT
@BAL @IND
CIN
1
ATL
20.0
@CHI
2
CLE
19.9
PIT
@BAL @IND
CIN
2
CLE
26.0
3
MIN
19.5
NO
@PIT
DET
3
NYG
25.7 @DAL
DET
@PHI
@TB
4
DET
19.5
ARI
@NYG ATL
@MIN
4
IND
24.1
@LAR
ARI
CLE
@SEA
5
GB
19.4
SEA
@ATL
CIN
CHI
5
ATL
24.0
@CHI
GB
@DET
BUF
6
NYG
18.8 @DAL
DET
@PHI
@TB
6
SF
24.0
CAR
@SEA LAR
@ARI
7
PHI
18.8 @WAS @KC
NYG
@LAC
7
WAS
23.9
PHI
@LAR OAK
@KC
8
TEN
18.7
OAK @JAX SEA @HOU
8
BUF
23.9
NYJ
@CAR DEN
@ATL
9
IND
18.7
@LAR
@SEA
9
LAC
23.7 @DEN
10 MIA
18.7
TB
NO
10
PHI
22.7 @WAS @KC
ARI
CLE
@LAC @NYJ
FPA to WRs Rk TEAM FPA/G
TB
MIA
FPA to TEs
Week
Rk TEAM FPA/G
KC
PHI
NYG
@LAC
Week 1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
@ATL
CIN
CHI
1
DAL
14.3
NYG @DEN @ARI
LAR
NO
2
CLE
14.1
PIT
CIN
SEA @HOU
3
CIN
13.2
BAL
HOU
4
CAR
12.6
@SF
BUF
NO
@NE
1
GB
35.2
SEA
2
MIA
32.6
TB
3
TEN
32.2
OAK @JAX
4
ARI
31.9
@DET @IND
DAL
5
PIT
31.6
@CLE
MIN
@CHI @BAL
5
DET
12.4
ARI
@NYG
ATL
@MIN
6
NYG
31.4 @DAL
DET
@PHI
@TB
6
MIN
12.0
NO
@PIT
TB
DET
7
CAR
30.7
@SF
BUF
NO
@NE
7
WAS
12.0
PHI
@LAR OAK
8
KC
30.3
@NE
PHI
@LAC WAS
8
ATL
11.9
@CHI
9
DET
30.1
ARI
@NYG
ATL
@MIN
9
PHI
11.5
10 SEA
30.0
@GB
SF
@TEN
IND
10
IND
11.4
@LAC @NYJ
SF
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@BAL @IND
GB
@GB @CLE
@KC
@DET
BUF
@WAS @KC
NYG
@LAC
@LAR
CLE
@SEA
ARI
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Top 3 FPAbP Values for Each Week The table below highlights the top DFS values for Weeks 1 thru 4 of the NFL season. These picks will not necessarily produce the most points each week, but they do represent the best values when salary is taken in context with the opposing defense. For example, Rob Gronkowski, if he’s healthy, may be the top-rated tight end many weeks, but FPAbP allows us to analyze the matchups and find other tight ends who may approach Gronkowski’s production at a lower cost. Of course, some weeks the top players also have top matchups. Each week, as you build your DFS lineups, you’ll have to balance the cost of each player against their projected performance. FPAbP should be a huge help in that. WEEK 1
WEEK 2
WEEK 3
WEEK 4
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks
1. Ben Roethlisberger vs. CLE
1. Aaron Rodgers vs.ATL
1. Matthew Stafford vs. ATL
1. Matthew Stafford vs. MIN
3. Jameis Winston vs. MIA
3. Matt Ryan vs. GB
3. Jameis Winston vs. MIN
3. Philip Rivers vs. PHI
2. Ben Roethlisberger vs. MIN
2. Andy Dalton vs. GB
2. Jameis Winston vs. NYG
Running Backs
Running Backs
Running Backs
Running Backs
1. Le’Veon Bell vs. CLE
1. David Johnson vs. IND
1. LeGarrette Blount vs. NYG
1. LeSean McCoy vs. ATL
3. Todd Gurley vs. IND
3. Christian McCaffrey vs. BUF
3. Marshawn Lynch vs. WAS
3. Doug Martin vs. NYG
2. Ezekiel Elliott vs. NYG
2. Eddie Lacy vs. SF
2. Todd Gurley vs. SF
2. David Johnson vs. SF
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers
1. Mike Evans vs. MIA
1. Julio Jones vs. GB
1. A.J. Green vs. GB
1. DeAndre Hopkins vs. TEN
3. Brandin Cooks vs. KC
3. T.Y. Hilton vs. ARI
3. Alshon Jeffery vs. NYG
3. Brandin Cooks vs. CAR
2. Amari Cooper vs. TEN
2. Alshon Jeffery vs. KC
2. Dez Bryant vs. ARI
2. Mike Evans vs. NYG
Tight Ends
Tight Ends
Tight Ends
Tight Ends
1. Coby Fleener vs. MIN
1. Travis Kelce vs. PHI
1. Coby Fleener vs. CAR
1. Rob Gronkowski vs. CAR
3. Jordan Reed vs. PHI
3. C.J. Fiedorowicz vs. CIN
3. O.J. Howard vs. MIN
3. Jimmy Graham vs. IND
2. Zach Ertz vs. WAS
2. Jesse James vs. MIN
2. Jack Doyle vs. CLE
2. Kyle Rudolph vs. DET
Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
2. Kirk Cousins vs. PHI
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Defenses to Avoid These tables represent the other side of the FPAbP coin. The bottom of the charts. These tables include the 10 teams that allow the fewest fantasy points to each position. These are the defenses you’ll want to avoid when you build your DFS rosters. Some of the stud offensive players will still produce against these teams, but there will likely be more reliable matchups found facing lesser defenses.
FPA to QBs Rk TEAM FPA/G
Week 1
3
4
32 DEN
13.4
DAL @BUF OAK
31 NYJ
13.8
30 LAR
15.0
IND
WAS
@SF
@DAL
29 HOU
15.2
JAX
@CIN
@NE
28 LAC
15.6
@DEN
MIA
27
15.8
KC
Week
Rk TEAM FPA/G
1
2
4
DAL
SF
16.7
31 TEN
17.1
OAK @JAX SEA @HOU
30
NO
18.0
@MIN
TEN
29 DAL
18.0
KC
PHI
28 NYJ
18.2
@NO
HOU
CAR
27 LAR
18.4
IND
WAS
@SF
@DAL
26 JAC
15.9 @HOU TEN
BAL
@NYJ
26
GB
18.5
SEA
@ATL
CIN
CHI
25
NO
16.4
@MIN
NE
@CAR @MIA
25
NE
18.7
KC
@NO
HOU
CAR
24 PIT
16.5
@CLE
MIN
@CHI @BAL
24 BAL
18.9
@CIN
CLE
@JAX
PIT
23 BUF
16.5
NYJ
23 CAR
18.9
@SF
BUF
NO
@NE
@BUF @OAK MIA
@CAR DEN
FPA to WRs Rk TEAM FPA/G
JAX
@ATL
2
NE
3
4
@CAR @MIA
NYG @DEN @ARI @BUF @OAK MIA
FPA to TEs
Week 1
@DET @IND
3
32 ARI
NE
LAC
2
FPA to RBs
LAR JAX
Week
Rk TEAM FPA/G
1
2
3
4 SF
32 ARI
4.8
@DET @IND
DAL
@GB @CLE
31
PIT
5.6
@CLE
MIN
@CHI @BAL
@NO
HOU
CAR
30 HOU
6.8
JAX
@CIN
@NE
TEN
@CIN
@NE
TEN
29 LAR
7.5
IND
WAS
@SF
@DAL
MIA
KC
PHI
28 BUF
7.7
NYJ
@CAR DEN
@ATL
26.0 @HOU TEN
BAL
@NYJ
27 MIA
8.0
TB
@LAC @NYJ
NO
26 NYJ
26.5 @BUF @OAK
MIA
JAX
26
KC
8.1
@NE
PHI
@LAC WAS
25
SF
26.6
LAR
@ARI
25
NO
8.4
@MIN
NE
@CAR @MIA
24
NO
27.0 @MIN
@CAR @MIA
24
TB
8.9
@MIA
CHI
@MIN
NYG
8.9
@CIN
CLE
@JAX
PIT
32 DEN
17.0
LAC
DAL
31
CIN
23.5
BAL
HOU
30
NE
24.0
KC
29 HOU
24.3
JAX
28 LAC
25.2 @DEN
27 JAC
23 BUF
27.0
CAR NYJ
@SEA NE
@BUF OAK
@CAR DEN
@ATL
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schedule report
Give Me Strength of Schedule! Dave Gawron
Strength of Schedule has been around as long as the game of fantasy football itself, yet it is still misunderstood. Granted, it is not a perfect science, but based on personal experience, it can help you win your league. You just have to understand all of its nuances. For example, just because your quarterback is facing a “bad” overall NFL team doesn’t necessarily mean that they are weak against the pass. In fact, “bad” teams can often be a poor matchup for passers, because winning teams tend to pack things in and play conservatively against an overmatched opponent in the second half—if not sooner. What matters is which teams give up the highest number of passing yards and touchdowns. The importance of a fantasy defense varies wildly depending on format, but generally you want your fantasy defense going up against weak opponents as often as possible. Note that we do not take Week 17 into account in our analysis, since many leagues play their championship games in Week 16, and Weeks 14-16 are considered “playoff” weeks.
drafting from strength
Too often, owners make the classic mistake of benching a star simply because he faces a tough matchup. Talent usually trumps opposition, but strength of schedule can be useful in final draft-day decisions on equally ranked players. For instance, running back Mike Gillislee has one of the easier rushing schedules this year. If you are deciding between him and another player expected to score the same amount of fantasy points, say perhaps Carlos Hyde, use the strength of schedule as a tiebreaker and draft Gillislee because of Hyde’s schedule. At wide receiver, Willie Snead has a very easy schedule and Pierre Garcon a pretty tough one. They’re both projected similarly, but given the schedule difference, you may consider taking Snead before Garcon. At the least, move Snead up a few slots and Garcon down a couple slots if SOS isn’t already factored in. When filling out your fantasy bench, it’s good to get those mid-to-late round players from teams with easy early-season schedules. For example, you could take a shot at Eddie Lacy or Rob Kelley for some potential early-season assistance, as neither one faces a “hard” rushing defense until at least Week 8.
looking ahead
Anyone who has dominated their fantasy season only to get bounced out of the playoffs knows all too well how often that happens and how unfulfilling that is, which is why studying SOS for your playoff weeks is so important. On draft day, Devin Cook might seem to have more fantasy potential on the Vikings than C.J. Anderson does on the Broncos, but looking ahead at the season’s final weeks reveals that Cook faces a tough stretch of run defenses, while Anderson has a favorable Week 14-16 schedule. Anderson’s production could easily surpass Cook’s during fantasy playoff weeks when your team needs it most. Danny Woodhead is perhaps not the most attractive pick as a running back on an iffy overall team, but his easy
playoff schedule makes him fairly attractive taken around twentieth among running backs in PPR leagues. When it comes to drafting your WR3, you may have your eye on Jamison Crowder, but his poor late-season schedule should give you pause. Consider an alternate receiver like Emmanuel Sanders instead, if both are on the board. Other wide receivers drafted late, like DeSean Jackson and Mike Williams, could really shine with easy late-season schedules and help win some fantasy championships for their owners this season from the WR3 or FLEX position.
Evans, Michael Thomas and Doug Baldwin are certainly even more attractive top fantasy receivers because of their easy schedules. Ben Roethlisburger and his passing game weapons face a tough schedule, but they are good enough players that we can ignore the schedule deficiency. At wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton can overcome a hard schedule as well. With a tough schedule, however, we can worry about Andrew Luck’s interception total. Downgrade receivers Sammy Watkins, Donte Moncrief, and Jordan Matthews because of tough schedules.
rushing offenses
defenses
Others may be wary of drafting Bilal Powell and Matt Forte, since they are part of a timeshare on a team that will potentially play from behind more often than not. Those who pay attention will notice, however, that the Jets lead the league in a ridiculous easy-to-hard rushing-opponent-defense ratio of 8:2, making Powell and Forte very attractive targets later in the draft over similar backs with harder schedules. Melvin Gordon is a great choice as your top running back. He has a historic schedule (NINE easy opponents vs. three hard ones). Given their easy schedules, Mike Gillislee, C.J. Anderson and Joe Mixon are worth extra consideration. LeVeon Bell is obviously good enough to overcome a tough schedule, and Lamar Miller should still get his points, but Todd Gurley should be downgraded a tad, as the Rams may struggle to open holes for him against all the tough run defenses on their slate. Tampa Bay running backs should also be downgraded, as they are more likely to just throw the ball often than try and run it against tough run defenses.
passing offenses
Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Jameis Winston are great choices as your QB1 this year with easy schedules on tap. Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, and O.J. Howard likewise have easy schedules for tight ends. Mike
One of the best ways to employ strength of schedule is in picking defenses, as great offenses consistently trump great defenses, at least from a fantasy perspective. Simply choosing units that face the worst offenses each week produces numbers equal to or superior to the elite defenses, making it possible to get top production by playing the matchups instead of investing an early draft pick. Because streaming is the best way to go, you’ll want to keep this magazine handy all year long as a reference. One thing to try is drafting a starting defense with few hard matchups overall and fill in with free agent defenses during the hard weeks. The Cardinals and Steelers are both decent defenses with only three hard match-ups each. Otherwise, the most important thing to look at on draft day is the first few weeks. Draft a somewhat solid defense with the best early schedule, then dump them when the schedule toughens up. After the good start, you could use the schedule to pick and choose matchups. The Ravens and Buccaneers are two defenses you can take in the final round that should get off to good starts. It’s nice to have a strong defense during the fantasy playoffs, too. The Cardinals and Steelers also have excellent playoff matchups this season. The Broncos and Giants are the two draftable defenses that have some poor playoff matchups during Weeks 14-16.
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Runners against Defenses Easiest Schedules:
Hardest Schedules:
Easiest Playoffs:
Hardest Playoffs:
LA Chargers, NY Jets, New England, Denver, and Cincinnati
San Francisco, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Houston, and Pittsburgh
New England, Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore, and Chicago Week
Pittsburgh, San Francisco, LA Rams, Minnesota, and NY Giants
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Arizona
det
ind
DAL
SF
phi
TB
lar
BYE
sf
SEA
hou
JAX
LAR
TEN
wsh
NYG
sea
Atlanta
chi
GB
det
BUF
BYE
MIA
ne
nyj
car
DAL
sea
TB
MIN
NO
tb
no
CAR
Baltimore
cin
CLE
jax
PIT
oak
CHI
min
MIA
ten
BYE
gb
HOU
DET
pit
cle
IND
CIN
NYJ
car
DEN
atl
cin
BYE
TB
OAK
nyj
NO
lac
kc
NE
IND
MIA
ne
mia
Buffalo
sf
BUF
NO
ne
det
PHI
chi
tb
ATL
MIA
BYE
nyj
no
MIN
GB
TB
atl
Chicago
ATL
tb
PIT
gb
MIN
bal
CAR
no
BYE
GB
DET
phi
SF
cin
det
CLE
min
Cincinnati
BAL
HOU
gb
cle
BUF
BYE
pit
IND
jax
ten
den
CLE
PIT
CHI
min
DET
bal
Cleveland
PIT
bal
ind
CIN
NYJ
hou
TEN
MIN
BYE
det
JAX
cin
lac
GB
BAL
chi
pit
Dallas
NYG
den
ari
LAR
GB
BYE
sf
wsh
KC
atl
PHI
LAC
WSH
nyg
oak
SEA
phi
Denver
LAC
DAL
buf
OAK
BYE
NYG
lac
kc
phi
NE
CIN
oak
mia
NYJ
ind
wsh
KC
Detroit
ARI
nyg
ATL
min
CAR
no
BYE
PIT
gb
CLE
chi
MIN
bal
tb
CHI
cin
GB
Green Bay
SEA
atl
CIN
CHI
dal
min
NO
BYE
DET
chi
BAL
pit
TB
cle
car
MIN
det
Houston
JAX
cin
ne
TEN
KC
CLE
BYE
sea
IND
lar
ARI
bal
ten
SF
jax
PIT
ind
Indianapolis
lar
ARI
CLE
sea
SF
ten
JAX
cin
hou
PIT
BYE
TEN
jax
buf
DEN
bal
HOU
Jacksonville
hou
TEN
BAL
nyj
pit
LAR
ind
BYE
CIN
LAC
cle
ari
IND
SEA
HOU
sf
ten
Kansas City
ne
PHI
lac
WSH
hou
PIT
oak
DEN
dal
BYE
nyg
BUF
nyj
OAK
LAC
MIA
den
LA Chargers
den
MIA
KC
PHI
nyg
oak
DEN
ne
BYE
jax
BUF
dal
CLE
WSH
kc
nyj
OAK
LA Rams
IND
WSH
sf
dal
SEA
jax
ARI
BYE
nyg
HOU
min
NO
ari
PHI
sea
ten
SF
Miami
TB
lac
nyj
NO
TEN
atl
NYJ
bal
OAK
car
BYE
ne
DEN
NE
buf
kc
BUF
Minnesota
NO
pit
TB
DET
chi
GB
BAL
cle
BYE
wsh
LAR
det
atl
car
CIN
gb
CHI
Carolina
New England
KC
no
HOU
CAR
tb
nyj
ATL
LAC
BYE
den
oak
MIA
buf
mia
pit
BUF
NYJ
New Orleans
min
NE
car
mia
BYE
DET
gb
CHI
TB
buf
WSH
lar
CAR
atl
NYJ
ATL
tb
New York Giants
dal
DET
phi
tb
LAC
den
SEA
BYE
LAR
sf
KC
wsh
oak
DAL
PHI
ari
WSH
New York Jets
buf
oak
MIA
JAX
cle
NE
mia
ATL
BUF
tb
BYE
CAR
KC
den
no
LAC
ne
Oakland
ten
NYJ
wsh
den
BAL
LAC
KC
buf
mia
BYE
NE
DEN
NYG
kc
DAL
phi
lac
Philadelphia
wsh
kc
NYG
lac
ARI
car
WSH
SF
DEN
BYE
dal
CHI
sea
lar
nyg
OAK
DAL
Pittsburgh
cle
MIN
chi
bal
JAX
kc
CIN
det
BYE
ind
TEN
GB
cin
BAL
NE
hou
CLE
CAR
sea
LAR
ari
ind
wsh
DAL
phi
ARI
NYG
BYE
SEA
chi
hou
TEN
JAX
lar
San Francisco Seattle
gb
SF
ten
IND
lar
BYE
nyg
HOU WSH
ari
ATL
sf
PHI
jax
LAR
dal
ARI
Tampa Bay
mia
CHI
min
NYG
NE
ari
buf
CAR
no
NYJ
BYE
atl
gb
DET
ATL
car
NO
Tennessee
OAK
jax
SEA
hou
mia
IND
cle
BYE
BAL
CIN
pit
ind
HOU
ari
sf
LAR
JAX
Washington
PHI
lar
OAK
kc
BYE
SF
phi
DAL
sea
MIN
no
NYG
dal
lac
ARI
DEN
nyg
Best weeks
good weeks
BYE
bad weeks
worst weeks
• Upper case indicates a home game • Ranked by projected points scored/allowed and projected yards gained/allowed.
FFG17_72-75_StrengthS_v2.indd 73
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passers/receivers against Defenses Easiest Schedules:
Hardest Schedules:
Easiest Playoffs:
Hardest Playoffs:
Minnesota, Chicago, Seattle, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay
Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, LA Rams, San Francisco, and Cleveland
Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Denver Week
Washington, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Arizona
det
ind
DAL
SF
phi
TB
lar
BYE
sf
SEA
hou
JAX
LAR
TEN
wsh
NYG
sea
Atlanta
chi
GB
det
BUF
BYE
MIA
ne
nyj
car
DAL
sea
TB
MIN
NO
tb
no
CAR
Baltimore
cin
CLE
jax
PIT
oak
CHI
min
MIA
ten
BYE
gb
HOU
DET
pit
cle
IND
CIN
Buffalo
NYJ
car
DEN
atl
cin
BYE
TB
OAK
nyj
NO
lac
kc
NE
IND
MIA
ne
mia
Carolina
sf
BUF
NO
ne
det
PHI
chi
tb
ATL
MIA
BYE
nyj
no
MIN
GB
TB
atl
Chicago
ATL
tb
PIT
gb
MIN
bal
CAR
no
BYE
GB
DET
phi
SF
cin
det
CLE
min
Cincinnati
BAL
HOU
gb
cle
BUF
BYE
pit
IND
jax
ten
den
CLE
PIT
CHI
min
DET
bal
Cleveland
PIT
bal
ind
CIN
NYJ
hou
TEN
MIN
BYE
det
JAX
cin
lac
GB
BAL
chi
pit
Dallas
NYG
den
ari
LAR
GB
BYE
sf
wsh
KC
atl
PHI
LAC
WSH
nyg
oak
SEA
phi
Denver
LAC
DAL
buf
OAK
BYE
NYG
lac
kc
phi
NE
CIN
oak
mia
NYJ
ind
wsh
KC
Detroit
ARI
nyg
ATL
min
CAR
no
BYE
PIT
gb
CLE
chi
MIN
bal
tb
CHI
cin
GB
Green Bay
SEA
atl
CIN
CHI
dal
min
NO
BYE
DET
chi
BAL
pit
TB
cle
car
MIN
det
Houston
JAX
cin
ne
TEN
KC
CLE
BYE
sea
IND
lar
ARI
bal
ten
SF
jax
PIT
ind
Indianapolis
lar
ARI
CLE
sea
SF
ten
JAX
cin
hou
PIT
BYE
TEN
jax
buf
DEN
bal
HOU
Jacksonville
hou
TEN
BAL
nyj
pit
LAR
ind
BYE
CIN
LAC
cle
ari
IND
SEA
HOU
sf
ten
Kansas City
ne
PHI
lac
WSH
hou
PIT
oak
DEN
dal
BYE
nyg
BUF
nyj
OAK
LAC
MIA
den
LA Chargers
den
MIA
KC
PHI
nyg
oak
DEN
ne
BYE
jax
BUF
dal
CLE
WSH
kc
nyj
OAK
LA Rams
IND
WSH
sf
dal
SEA
jax
ARI
BYE
nyg
HOU
min
NO
ari
PHI
sea
ten
SF
Miami
TB
lac
nyj
NO
TEN
atl
NYJ
bal
OAK
car
BYE
ne
DEN
NE
buf
kc
BUF
Minnesota
NO
pit
TB
DET
chi
GB
BAL
cle
BYE
wsh
LAR
det
atl
car
CIN
gb
CHI
New England
KC
no
HOU
CAR
tb
nyj
ATL
LAC
BYE
den
oak
MIA
buf
mia
pit
BUF
NYJ
New Orleans
min
NE
car
mia
BYE
DET
gb
CHI
TB
buf
WSH
lar
CAR
atl
NYJ
ATL
tb
New York Giants
dal
DET
phi
tb
LAC
den
SEA
BYE
LAR
sf
KC
wsh
oak
DAL
PHI
ari
WSH
New York Jets
buf
oak
MIA
JAX
cle
NE
mia
ATL
BUF
tb
BYE
CAR
KC
den
no
LAC
ne
Oakland
ten
NYJ
wsh
den
BAL
LAC
KC
buf
mia
BYE
NE
DEN
NYG
kc
DAL
phi
lac
Philadelphia
wsh
kc
NYG
lac
ARI
car
WSH
SF
DEN
BYE
dal
CHI
sea
lar
nyg
OAK
DAL
Pittsburgh
cle
MIN
chi
bal
JAX
kc
CIN
det
BYE
ind
TEN
GB
cin
BAL
NE
hou
CLE
CAR
sea
LAR
ari
ind
wsh
DAL
phi
ARI
NYG
BYE
SEA
chi
hou
TEN
JAX
lar
Seattle
gb
SF
ten
IND
lar
BYE
nyg
HOU WSH
ari
ATL
sf
PHI
jax
LAR
dal
ARI
Tampa Bay
mia
CHI
min
NYG
NE
ari
buf
CAR
no
NYJ
BYE
atl
gb
DET
ATL
car
NO
Tennessee
OAK
jax
SEA
hou
mia
IND
cle
BYE
BAL
CIN
pit
ind
HOU
ari
sf
LAR
JAX
Washington
PHI
lar
OAK
kc
BYE
SF
phi
DAL
sea
MIN
no
NYG
dal
lac
ARI
DEN
nyg
San Francisco
Best weeks
good weeks
BYE
bad weeks
worst weeks
• Upper case indicates a home game • Ranked by projected points scored/allowed and projected yards gained/allowed. 74 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | strength of schedule report
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defenses against offenses Easiest Schedules:
Hardest Schedules:
Easiest Playoffs:
Hardest Playoffs:
Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Arizona
Denver, Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay
Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Cin Week
Atlanta, Buffalo, NY Giants, Denver, and New Orleans
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Arizona
det
ind
DAL
SF
phi
TB
lar
BYE
sf
SEA
hou
JAX
LAR
TEN
wsh
NYG
sea
Atlanta
chi
GB
det
BUF
BYE
MIA
ne
nyj
car
DAL
sea
TB
MIN
NO
tb
no
CAR
Baltimore
cin
CLE
jax
PIT
oak
CHI
min
MIA
ten
BYE
gb
HOU
DET
pit
cle
IND
CIN
Buffalo
NYJ
car
DEN
atl
cin
BYE
TB
OAK
nyj
NO
lac
kc
NE
IND
MIA
ne
mia
Carolina
sf
BUF
NO
ne
det
PHI
chi
tb
ATL
MIA
BYE
nyj
no
MIN
GB
TB
atl
Chicago
ATL
tb
PIT
gb
MIN
bal
CAR
no
BYE
GB
DET
phi
SF
cin
det
CLE
min
Cincinnati
BAL
HOU
gb
cle
BUF
BYE
pit
IND
jax
ten
den
CLE
PIT
CHI
min
DET
bal
Cleveland
PIT
bal
ind
CIN
NYJ
hou
TEN
MIN
BYE
det
JAX
cin
lac
GB
BAL
chi
pit
Dallas
NYG
den
ari
LAR
GB
BYE
sf
wsh
KC
atl
PHI
LAC
WSH
nyg
oak
SEA
phi
Denver
LAC
DAL
buf
OAK
BYE
NYG
lac
kc
phi
NE
CIN
oak
mia
NYJ
ind
wsh
KC
Detroit
ARI
nyg
ATL
min
CAR
no
BYE
PIT
gb
CLE
chi
MIN
bal
tb
CHI
cin
GB
Green Bay
SEA
atl
CIN
CHI
dal
min
NO
BYE
DET
chi
BAL
pit
TB
cle
car
MIN
det
Houston
JAX
cin
ne
TEN
KC
CLE
BYE
sea
IND
lar
ARI
bal
ten
SF
jax
PIT
ind
Indianapolis
lar
ARI
CLE
sea
SF
ten
JAX
cin
hou
PIT
BYE
TEN
jax
buf
DEN
bal
HOU
Jacksonville
hou
TEN
BAL
nyj
pit
LAR
ind
BYE
CIN
LAC
cle
ari
IND
SEA
HOU
sf
ten
Kansas City
ne
PHI
lac
WSH
hou
PIT
oak
DEN
dal
BYE
nyg
BUF
nyj
OAK
LAC
MIA
den
LA Chargers
den
MIA
KC
PHI
nyg
oak
DEN
ne
BYE
jax
BUF
dal
CLE
WSH
kc
nyj
OAK
LA Rams
IND
WSH
sf
dal
SEA
jax
ARI
BYE
nyg
HOU
min
NO
ari
PHI
sea
ten
SF
Miami
TB
lac
nyj
NO
TEN
atl
NYJ
bal
OAK
car
BYE
ne
DEN
NE
buf
kc
BUF
Minnesota
NO
pit
TB
DET
chi
GB
BAL
cle
BYE
wsh
LAR
det
atl
car
CIN
gb
CHI
New England
KC
no
HOU
CAR
tb
nyj
ATL
LAC
BYE
den
oak
MIA
buf
mia
pit
BUF
NYJ
New Orleans
min
NE
car
mia
BYE
DET
gb
CHI
TB
buf
WSH
lar
CAR
atl
NYJ
ATL
tb
New York Giants
dal
DET
phi
tb
LAC
den
SEA
BYE
LAR
sf
KC
wsh
oak
DAL
PHI
ari
WSH
New York Jets
buf
oak
MIA
JAX
cle
NE
mia
ATL
BUF
tb
BYE
CAR
KC
den
no
LAC
ne
Oakland
ten
NYJ
wsh
den
BAL
LAC
KC
buf
mia
BYE
NE
DEN
NYG
kc
DAL
phi
lac
Philadelphia
wsh
kc
NYG
lac
ARI
car
WSH
SF
DEN
BYE
dal
CHI
sea
lar
nyg
OAK
DAL
Pittsburgh
cle
MIN
chi
bal
JAX
kc
CIN
det
BYE
ind
TEN
GB
cin
BAL
NE
hou
CLE
CAR
sea
LAR
ari
ind
wsh
DAL
phi
ARI
NYG
BYE
SEA
chi
hou
TEN
JAX
lar
gb
SF
ten
IND
lar
BYE
nyg
HOU WSH
ari
ATL
sf
PHI
jax
LAR
dal
ARI
Tampa Bay
mia
CHI
min
NYG
NE
ari
buf
CAR
no
NYJ
BYE
atl
gb
DET
ATL
car
NO
Tennessee
OAK
jax
SEA
hou
mia
IND
cle
BYE
BAL
CIN
pit
ind
HOU
ari
sf
LAR
JAX
Washington
PHI
lar
OAK
kc
BYE
SF
phi
DAL
sea
MIN
no
NYG
dal
lac
ARI
DEN
nyg
San Francisco Seattle
Best weeks
good weeks
BYE
bad weeks
worst weeks
• Upper case indicates a home game • Ranked by projected points scored/allowed and projected yards gained/allowed.
FFG17_72-75_StrengthS_v2.indd 75
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75
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round
round
mock draft 2017
1
first Pick
Scott Pianowski Yahoo.com @scott_pianowski second Pick
Marc Meltzer mastersball.com
third Pick
Jake Ciely
RotoExperts/FNTSY @allinkid fourth Pick
LisaAnn
Sirius/XM @thereallisaann fifth Pick
Corey Parsons FNTSY.com @TheFantasyExec sixth Pick
Lori Rubinson WFAN, wfan.com @lrubinson seventh Pick
Howard Bender FantasyAlarm.com @rotobuzzguy eighth Pick
JD Bollick
Fantasy Football Guide @JohnDavidBolick ninth Pick
Ray Flowers
1. Johnson, David, ARI Even if RB were deep, he's my first pick. Checks all the boxes.
28. Gronkowski, Rob, NE Probably the only time I draft him this year; I'm not a risk-taker with premium picks, but I didn't like how the draft fell.
29. Thomas, Demaryius, DEN He's produced with good and with bad quarterbacks, and the Broncos have a very narrow usage tree.
2. Brown, Antonio, PIT Brown is the top PPR fantasy wide receiver and is much safer than the top three running backs
27. Robinson, Allen, JAX Robinson was far from terrible in 2016, but he appeared that way given the unreasonable expectations and where he was drafted.
30. Ingram, Mark, NO Solid, dependable fantasy running back. Not worried about AP.
3. Bell, Le'Veon, PIT Thinking I was going to get the last of the big three RBs, I instead got the one who regularly produces the most FPPG in PPR.
26. Baldwin, Doug, SEA Perenially underrated. Baldwin continues to finish as a fringe WR1 and pairs up nicely with Bell.
31. Mixon, Joe, CIN Mixon was the most talented RB in the NFL Draft. Bernard can't stay healthy, and Hill will be lucky to see five carries a week. Mixon will be a RB1.
4. Elliott, Ezekiel, DAL Looming investigation, potential suspension or not, I am so in on Elliot. I am sure we will be seeing a lot more of what we saw last season.
25. Pryor Sr., Terrelle, WAS If Kirk Cousins can adjust to his shiny new weapon he will have the deep threat he always dreamed of. I see a boom or bust situation happening.
32. Miller, Lamar, HOU Last season Miller rushed for 1073 yards with 5 TDs. I see a lot more of that coming in what could be Miller’s career year.
5. Evans, Mike, TB The addition of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard will lead to a highly efficient heavily-targeted Evans.
24. Cooks, Brandin, NE A dip in targets is likely but Cooks will still be a dangerous playmaker in his new home.
33. Adams, Davante, GB After a breakout season in 2016, Adams is now the second option in the Packers passing attack.
6. Jones, Julio, ATL Sure thing No. 1 WR. No risk of suspension or boat trip with the Biebs.
23. Ajayi, Jay, MIA Poised for monster rushing year though not a PPR stud
34. Jeffery, Alshon, PHI If not hurt or suspended, then top 10 WR value. Lotta Ifs.
7. Beckham Jr., Odell, NYG Stud No. 1 WR who routinely makes big plays.
22. Fournette, Leonard, JAX Best RB in Jacksonville since MJD, with great upside. Now let's see the line block for him.
35. Lynch, Marshawn, OAK High risk/high reward pick, but still a chance that the year off didn't ruin him.
8. Freeman, Devonta, ATL He's been a top running back each of the last two seasons, even though I still have my doubts.
21. Hopkins, DeAndre, HOU Deshaun Watson is going to help him get back to fantasy excellence.
36. Rodgers, Aaron, GB It's lunacy that Rodgers lasted until the 36th pick, even with four-point passing TDs.
9. McCoy, LeSean, BUF Only way he's not an RB1 is if he's hurt.
20. Bryant, Dez, DAL Scored six times his final eight games and is still a beast in the red zone.
37. Moncrief, Donte, IND Crashed last year, but with health he takes off.
10. Gordon, Melvin, LAC On an offense-based squad with a QB who will use it effectively.
19. Hilton, T.Y., IND Tough between Dez and T.Y., but Hilton is tough to "pass" up.
38. Crabtree, Michael, OAK Will play John Taylor to Cooper's Jerry Rice making both killer picks.
11. Green, A.J., CIN 1,000-plus yards each of his first six seasons, prior to hitting 964 in only 10 games last year.
18. Murray, DeMarco, TEN Third in carries and sixth in receptions among RBs last year. And the Titans say he's still the main man.
39. Landry, Jarvis, MIA Lack of scoring (one end zone target last year) is offset by massive target volume (fourth in the NFL in receptions since he entered the league).
12. Nelson, Jordy, GB Automatic if he's healthy.
17. McCaffrey, Christian, CAR Love, love, love the PPR upside. He's a game changer.
40. Crowell, Isaiah, CLE A true workhorse in the third round is a great opportunity.
13. Cooper, Amari, OAK Top wideout in an emerging offense. Lynch should help take some pressure off.
16. Gurley, Todd, LAR Will still be the focal point in the Rams offense that should be better.
41. Allen, Keenan, LAC If healthy, Allen is a PPR stud. High Risk/ High Reward.
14. Howard, Jordan, CHI Second in the league in rushing yards as a rookie, and he wasn't even a starter until Week 4.
15. Thomas, Michael, NO After a stellar rookie season, he moves to the top of Saints receiving corps with Brandin Cooks gone.
42. Reed, Jordan, WAS Could be the No. 1 fantasy TE if he can just stay healthy.
Guru Elite @baseballguys tenth Pick
Lawr Michaels Mastersball.com @lawrmichaels
QB
eleventh Pick
Mike Clay
RB
ESPN.com @MikeClayNFL
WR
twelfth Pick
Seth Trachtman Street & Smith’s @sethroto
TE
thirteenth Pick
Justin Mason
K
FriendsWithFantasyBenefits.com @justinmason fourteenth Pick
Steve Gardner USA TODAY Sports @SteveAGardner
DEF
Curated by Lawr Michaels, mastersball.com
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56. Edelman, Julian, NE Needs some PPR kickback because he's not a dynamic touchdown scorer.
57. Crowder, Jamison, WAS Slot machine, ankle breaker, tied to a plus coach and quarterback.
84. Snead, Willie, NO Holds a priority spot in a high-volume offense; I'd keep taking WRs if this format would allow.
85. Gillislee, Mike, NE Steps into the Blount role, only younger and more talented; though projectability will be a problem in this offense.
112. Murray, Latavius, MIN Has plenty of obvious flaws, but I'm given a reasonable price to find out.
55. Montgomery, Ty, GB Wanted Fitzgerald in this spot, but Montgomery will be a fine RB in PPR.
58. Luck, Andrew, IND While I was lamenting getting snaked on Fitzgerald and Coleman, Luck was an auto-selection.
83. Garcon, Pierre, SF Garcon’s best season came in 2013, when he caught 113 passes from RGIII after catching 70 passes from Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky in 2011.
86. Thielen, Adam, MIN 12-202-2 in 2016 Week 16 Championship week has me sold in 2017.
111. Mack, Marlon, IND Earlier than you need to take him. But please take him. Great spot if Gore is hurt or too old.
54. Fitzgerald, Larry, ARI Every year, people want to leave Fitzgerald for dead just like Frank Gore. Fitzgerlad actually sees a nice boost in PPR as well.
59. Davis, Corey, TEN Davis shows similarities to Terrell Owens. That's how good he is. He'll be the Titans No. 1 WR by midseason.
82. Bryant, Martavis, PIT Had a breakout campaign before his off-field activities got him suspended. If he's the same Bryant as before, WR2 upside is coming.
87. Williams, Jamaal, GB Williams is this year's Jordan Howard. He might not start as the top option, but his talent is real, and once he takes over, Williams will be a Top 15 RB.
110. Prosise, C.J., SEA I was surprised to see him last this long in a PPR league. Whoever is the lead, Prosise is going to be the passcatcher and can be Theo Riddick-like.
53. Hill, Tyreek, KC I like the gadget in Hill. His after catch ability, his break away speed are something to watch, especially as an owner.
60. Brady, Tom, NE Brady will go down as one of the greatest QBs of all time. I could not let him sit there past round five.
81. Blount, LeGarrette, PHI We all know what happened for Demarco Murray when he went to the Eagles. I can only hope that Blount is used for what he did last season.
88. Howard, O.J., TB If I’m going to take a chance on a rookie, I will take a chance on a 6’6” 242 pound TE with the arm of Jameis Winston throwing to him.
109. Jones Jr., Marvin, DET This could be a 1,000 yard season, he was only 70 yards short last year. He does make a team owner have to focus a bit on matchups.
52. Coleman, Tevin, ATL Coleman's ankle injury should not be a issue going into the pre season. If he can play 16 games he will account for double digit touchdowns.
61. Woodhead, Danny, BAL When Woodhead is healthy he will flirt with RB 1 numbers in point per reception leagues. Woodhead has played in 21 games over the last 3 seasons.
80. Winston, Jameis, TB Breakout Player Alert. Winston will flirt with Top 5 fantasy QB production.
89. Jackson, DeSean, TB Jackson moves to Tampa to pair up with Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Double digit touchdowns in 2017 maybe bold but not out of the question
108. Dixon, Kenneth, BAL Dixon will serve a four game suspension to start the season, he will eventually be the lead back in Baltimore.
51. Kelce, Travis, KC Last year. Good PPR value
62. Cook, Dalvin, MIN Cook has a chip on his shoulder and Vikes’ O-line has nowhere to go but up.
79. Wilson, Russell, SEA Was tied with Brees in 2nd half of 2016. Ok, I reached on this pick
90. Decker, Eric, NYJ When he's not hurt, he's a top-20 WR. Damning with faint praise?
107. Coleman, Corey, CLE Could be No. 1 WR in Cleveland. I know, he could get "Osweilered."
50. Ware, Spencer, KC Might battle Kareem Hunt in camp, but Andy Reid likes his veterans.
63. Matthews, Rishard, TEN Breakout season in 2016 could be stepping stone, with Corey Davis drawing coverage away but not targets.
78. Williams, Tyrell, LAC I think we all, pretty much, expect Keenan Allen to get hurt again, right?
91. Ertz, Zach, PHI Averaged 10.6 targets over last seven games in 2016. Eagles should pass even more this year.
106. Mariota, Marcus, TEN Took a step forward last season and the Titans just keep giving him more weapons.
49. Marshall, Brandon, NYG I'm betting that he still has the talent and that Eli will bring it out.
64. Perkins, Paul, NYG The Giants didn't replace Rashad Jennings, so Perkins will get a lot of snaps.
77. Graham, Jimmy, SEA His second season with Seattle was a resounding success.
92. Gore, Frank, IND He's nearing the end, but he stays on the field and the Colts don't have a better option.
105. Wallace, Mike, BAL Have you seen the Ravens' depth chart? He's an underrated vet.
48. Lacy, Eddie, SEA A vicious runner in a good offense. He's hungry, and not for burgers.
65. Anderson, C.J., DEN Will have to fight for job, but last year’s pace over 16 games—998 yards, nine rushing scores.
76. Parker, DeVante, MIA We're still waiting for his talent to result in consistent production.
93. Roethlisberger, Ben, PIT Never healthy, always whining, and a total diva. Always productive though.
104. Martin, Doug, TB Will lead the TB backfield after suspension and seems driven to succeed.
47. Riddick, Theo, DET With PPR emphasis, I love backs who can catch.
66. Carr, Derek, OAK Maybe a little premature, but I think Carr has an MVP season with some great weapons.
75. Benjamin, Kelvin, CAR Pretty good No. 3 WR option.
94. Engram, Evan, NYG Rookie gamble, but new Giants TE looks like the real thing.
103. Richard, Jalen, OAK A 5.9 yard average for a slippery back who will play Napoleon Kaufman on an explosive Raiders team.
46. Sanders, Emmanuel, DEN Sees a heavy target share and set a career-high with 14 end zone targets last year.
67. Diggs, Stefon, MIN A poor man's Landry, Diggs finished 14th with 84 receptions last year. He's a sleeper for 100 in 2017.
74. Abdullah, Ameer, DET A post-hype sleeper who should blow past 200 touches as Detroit's lead back
95. Walker, Delanie, TEN Despite missing two games, a top-five fantasy TE each of the past two years.
102. Hunt, Kareem, KC A terrific all-around player with only Spencer Ware blocking him from feature back duties in Andy Reid’s RB-friendly offense.
45. Watkins, Sammy, BUF I didn't love this pick, but he was far better than any other WR option.
68. Olsen, Greg, CAR As durable and consistent as they come.
73. Ryan, Matt, ATL Did I miss something? Ryan dropped too far.
96. White, James, NE Patriots backfield is crowded, but White's PPR upside is too good to pass up.
101. Matthews, Jordan, PHI Loses value behind Alshon Jeffery, but should still be a solid play.
44. Hyde, Carlos, SF Love Hyde being the focal point of the Shanahan offense. Should rack up a ton of points this year.
69. Newton, Cam, CAR Carolina has added weapns and Cam should flourish again.
72. Doctson, Josh, WAS Is healthy and could be a standout in the Washington offense
97. Eifert, Tyler, CIN The only question is health. Eifert is a top tier talent.
100. Kelley, Rob, WAS I wish I had handcuffed him, but "Fat Rob" looks fit and ready to go for the Skins this season.
43. Tate, Golden, DET Volume is the key and he'll get a ton of targets.
70. Brees, Drew, NO How is he still available at pick No. 60? Lock for 4500 yards and 30+ TD
71. Powell, Bilal, NYJ Hasn't had the workload of a typical 28-year-old RB. Averaged 5.5 yards per carry and is a great receiver.
98. Meredith, Cameron, CHI Came on strong late last season and is now the Bears No. 1 WR.
99. Cobb, Randall, GB Great value pick in a high-octane passing game.
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113. Cousins, Kirk, WAS Unless an elite QB falls to some silly price, waiting is the obvious, welldocumented way to go.
140. Johnson Jr., Duke, CLE Won't be the bell cow here, but still has exciting pass-catching chops.
141. Denver Broncos Worried the QB play might lead them down some messy paths, but the talent is still here.
168. Hooper, Austin, ATL The breakout is coming, just a matter of if it's Year 2 or Year 3.
169. Crosby, Mason, GB Proven kicker on a proven offense. Stills, Nash will fill in during bye weeks. Young’s in the CFL.
114. Henry, Derrick, TEN Good spot if anything happens to Murray in Tennessee. Expect more timeshare in 2017
139. Fleener, Coby, NO Had Doyle in the queue as I think he will be a star. Fleener is an average talent in great offense
142. Bortles, Blake, JAX Last decent quarterback remaining. Will be better with Jags improved running game.
167. Prater, Matt, DET He is not Tucker, but is pretty dependable
170. Philadelphia Eagles Turns a lot of turnovers into scores
115. Rivers, Philip, LAC So, a QB who regularly finishes in the Top 10 and who was QB8 last year despite a mess of a WR situation falls this far?
138. Doyle, Jack, IND I'll probably be cursing Erik Swoope's name as Dwayne Allen owners cursed Doyle’s last year, but I'm okay with his TE1 potential this late in the draft.
143. Houston Texans Best defensive player in football? Check. Potentially the best defense period… check again.
166. James, Jesse, PIT With Ladarius Green done, James is Ben Roethlisberger's new main tight end, and he flashed some potential last year. Plus, it's Round 12.
171. Boswell, Chris, PIT It's a kicker. They shouldn't exist in Fantasy. #bankickers. But, I had to follow the rules to participate in the draft.
116. Shepard, Sterling, NYG Yes, I know Manning has a lot of weapons, but what we saw glimpses of last season could become something more.
137. Manning, Eli, NYG Has too many weapons to not pick him up in a PPR format. Sometimes I draft thinking about players I don’t want to face as much as I want to have.
144. Witten, Jason, DAL Having the experiment of a rookie as my other TE, I wanted to balance with some age experience, consistency & guaranteed playing time.
165. Vinatieri, Adam, IND Vinatieri is the consistency I look for in a kicker. It is a position I don’t want to spend too much time on weekly, he allows an owner that freedom.
172. Los Angeles Rams This may be rolling the dice. Could the changes the Rams have made make a difference, this season, one can only hope.
117. Ebron, Eric, DET Eric Ebron should rise in the tight end ranks this season if he can stay on the field.
136. Gostkowski, Stephen, NE Top Kicker in Fantasy.
145. Rodgers, Jacquizz, TB Look for Rodgers to hold on as the Bucs starting running back even after Doug Martin returns from season.
164. New York Giants The Giants were a top 10 fantasy defense in 2016. Expect more of the same this year.
173. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Many dont know but the Tampa unit finished in the top 5 in 2016.
118. Charles, Jamaal, DEN By round nine, it's a low risk, potentially high reward pick
135. Bernard, Giovani, CIN He's a question mark coming off of ACL injury but should be ready for start of season
146. Seattle Seahawks I know there's a lot of off the field nonsense, but if Earl Thomas is healthy they're elite
163. Brate, Cameron, TB OJ Howard, OJ Shmoward. Don't forget Brate's breakout last season
174. Santos, Cairo, KC I sometimes take a PK in 2nd to last round but I waited and took what was left over
119. Perine, Samaje, WAS There's just no way Rob Kelley holds this kid back. Plus I like to say his last name.
134. Fuller V, Will, HOU New QB means a clean slate, so all he has to do is not drop the ball.
147. Wentz, Carson, PHI Solid back-up here with potential to start regularly if he jells with Alshon Jeffery.
162. Minnesota Vikings The uniforms are purple and who doesn't love their helmets (I'm a DST streamer).
175. Lutz, Wil, NO Kicks in a dome for a high-octane offense.
120. Brown, John, ARI A great bounce back candidate who proved what he could do in 2015.
133. Kansas City Chiefs The No. 1 fantasy defense last season and No. 2 the season before that.
148. Dalton, Andy, CIN Hopefully I won't need to shoot the Red Rifle except on Rodgers' bye week.
161. Bryant, Matt, ATL If most are waiting for the last round to grab a kicker, pick a good one a round early.
176. Williams, Joe, SF New coaching staffs tend to favor players they picked. Williams could be the starter.
121. Rudolph, Kyle, MIN Don't know if he can repeat last season or not but should be pretty close.
132. Stills, Kenny, MIA Wouldn't take much for him to have a D-Jax type season.
149. Arizona Cardinals Facing Niners and Rams four times helps.
160. Palmer, Carson, ARI Aging, but I need a second QB since Big Ben always misses games.
177. McManus, Brandon, DEN Big leg. Don't know what else matters for a kicker.
122. Perriman, Breshad, BAL Former No. 1 is now a third year vet who averaged 15.1 yards a catch last year.
131. Taylor, Tyrod, BUF Back-up QB can run and throw and has almost as many weapons as Carr.
150. Stewart, Jonathan, CAR Crapshoot veteran RB late in the draft works for me. Stewart is a starter.
159. Pittsburgh Steelers I like to stream defenses, and the Steelers open against the Browns.
178. Walsh, Blair, SEA Pretty steady, and now playing for a theoretically high-powered offense.
123. Peterson, Adrian, NO Will be busy on early downs and at the goal line in one of the game's highestscoring offenses
130. Stafford, Matthew, DET He's gone conservative, but has still finished as a top-11 fantasy QB five of the past six years
151. Jacksonville Jaguars Emerging unit that filled its remaining voids in free agency with Campbell, Bouye and Church
158. Thomas, Julius, MIA A late dart-throw at a TE who is reunited with Adam Gase in an offense that will use him near the goal line
179. Hopkins, Dustin, WAS Attempted NFL-high 42 field goals last year. The Redskins' high-scoring O will get him in position often.
124. Henry, Hunter, LAC Love the upside with Philip Rivers relying on his tight end.
129. Maclin, Jeremy, BAL I haven't given up. Played through groin injury last year, was solid in 2015.
152. New England Patriots An elite defense last year despite lack of big plays.
157. Kamara, Alvin, NO Possible PPR unicorn in the Saints offense.
180. Dawson, Phil, ARI An oldie but goodie will get more chances in Arizona.
125. Williams, Mike, LAC This is Keenan Allen insurance, but he could have a breakout even with Allen around.
128. Prescott, Dak, DAL Dak is a all around contributor and a perfect QB2
153. Njoku, David, CLE Needed a good strong backup with Eifert at TE1. Njoku fits the bill as a high upside lottery ticket.
156. Bailey, Dan, DAL Why we still play with kickers in fantasy football is beyond me. I'd rather have to draft referees.
181. Baltimore Ravens See blurb about kickers. Go play IDP.
126. Bennett, Martellus, GB What will Aaron Rodgers do with a high-end tight end?
127. Tucker, Justin, BAL He's never missed an extra point in his career and was 38-for-39 in FG attempts last year.
154. Hill, Jeremy, CIN Bengals' bruiser and goal-line back is a worthy gamble this late.
155. Watson, Deshaun, HOU Why not take a flyer on the rookie's upside as a fantasy backup?
182. Carolina Panthers Panthers have several big-play guys on defense.
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No. 1 David Johnson: “Even if RB were deep he’d be my first pick.”
2017 Mock Draft CommentarIES OUR PANEL CONFESSES: Their original strategies, the resulting realities, and their best & worst picks.
Scott Pianowski
Marc Meltzer
Yahoo.com @scott_pianowski PLAN GOING IN: Take value where it shows, don’t freak out over filling RB2 and RB3, take QB very late unless a god slips multiple rounds.
DID PLAN WORK? Not proud
1. Johnson, David ARI 28. Gronkowski, Rob NE 29. Thomas, Demaryius DEN
of the Gronk pick, but this team is filled with a lot of players I’d love to go to huddle with. Getting the No. 1 pick is definitely an advantage (so is an odd-number of rounds, when you pick early).
56. Edelman, Julian NE
(5th Round) was pretty damn affordable for someone likely to catch 100 balls. To a lesser extent, that’s also my comment on Willie Snead.
112. Murray, Latavius MIN
BEST PICK: Jamison Crowder
Photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
mastersball.com
WORST PICK: I’m generally not a Gronk guy (2nd Round), given his body attrition. It’s not if he’ll get hurt, it’s when. I also have too many Patriots, but hey, it’s a mock, I was value-focused. At least Gronk would, in theory, be easy to deal.
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57. Crowder, Jamison WAS 84. Snead, Willie NO 85. Gillislee, Mike NE
113. Cousins, Kirk WAS 140. Johnson Jr., Duke CLE
PLAN GOING IN: Load up on wide receivers early, then stockpile OK backs later DID PLAN WORK? The format
2. Brown, Antonio PIT 27. Robinson, Allen JAX
made it difficult, as there was a max of four WR and four RB, with only 13 roster spots. Filled four WR spots in first seven rounds. Strong backup RBs in rounds 8 and 9. In NFFC drafts, where you can set a KDS draft preference, I indend to have 1, 2, and 3 set last, as those are almost destined to all be RBs. I want a WR in round 1 - Brown, Evans, Beckham and even Jones will do.
30. Ingram, Mark NO
Round): Great spot after successful career at USF. Can likely pick later in deeper drafts.
114. Henry, Derrick TEN
BEST PICK: Marlon Mack (8th
55. Montgomery, Ty GB 58. Luck, Andrew IND 83. Garcon, Pierre SF 86. Thielen, Adam MIN 111. Mack, Marlon IND
139. Fleener, Coby NO
WORST PICK: Andrew Luck (5th
169. Crosby, Mason GB
Round) and Coby Fleener (10th Round): 142. Bortles, Blake JAX I don’t want a QB in round 5. Would have preferred another WR. Coby Fleener was 167. Prater, Matt DET a reaction to not getting Doyle.
mock draft commentary | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | 79
141. Denver Broncos 168. Hooper, Austin ATL
170. Philadelphia Eagles
6/16/17 9:42 PM
mock draft commentary
Jake Ciely
LisaAnn
RotoExperts/FNTSY @allinkid PLAN GOING IN: My plan was to take whichever was left of the big three RBs. I also wanted to build tons of depth at RB and WR and wait on QB/TE.
DID PLAN WORK? Sort of… as Bell being there let me get the potential best PPR RB again. As for waiting on QB/TE, that was a major success. Rivers, Doyle and James is a terrific group to add to my amazing RB/WR depth. BEST PICK: Le’Veon Bell (1st
3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT 26. Baldwin, Doug SEA 31. Mixon, Joe CIN 54. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI 59. Davis, Corey TEN 82. Bryant, Martavis PIT
Round) - OK, too easy. It’s Rivers (9th Round). Again, he’s a Top 8 QB coming 87. Williams, Jamaal GB in the double-digits of QBs and way too 110. Prosise, C.J. SEA late overall.
Sirius/XM .@thereallisaann PLAN GOING IN: I wanted to have a diverse team with some questionable picks, like how will Pryor work with Cousins, and common sense picks like Tom Brady is a damn good QB.
53. Hill, Tyreek KC
BEST PICK: Ezekiel Elliot (1st
60. Brady, Tom NE
Round)
81. Blount, LeGarrette PHI
(13th Round)
88. Howard, O.J. TB
WORST PICK: Rams Defense
109. Jones Jr., Marvin DET
137. Manning, Eli NYG
166. James, Jesse PIT
165. Vinatieri, Adam IND
171. Boswell, Chris PIT
172. Los Angeles Rams
5. Evans, Mike TB 24. Cooks, Brandin NE 33. Adams, Davante GB 52. Coleman, Tevin ATL 61. Woodhead, Danny BAL
(6th Round)
80. Winston, Jameis TB
(7th Round)
89. Jackson, DeSean TB
WORST PICK: DeSean Jackson
116. Shepard, Sterling NYG
144. Witten, Jason DAL
Corey Parsons
BEST PICK: Jameis Winston
32. Miller, Lamar HOU
143. Houston Texans
FNTSY.com @TheFantasyExec
DID PLAN WORK? I like the way the team turned out, was reallly please to grab Davante Adams as a WR 3
25. Pryor Sr., Terrelle WAS
DID PLAN WORK? That is the
question….
WORST PICK: Chris Boswell (13th 115. Rivers, Philip LAC Round). If you draft a kicker, that’s always going to be your worst pick. 138. Doyle, Jack IND
PLAN GOING IN: My Goal was to build a team by going for the best players available when I was on the clock.
4. Elliott, Ezekiel DAL
108. Dixon, Kenneth BAL 117. Ebron, Eric DET 136. Gostkowski, Stephen NE 145. Rodgers, Jacquizz TB 164. New York Giants 173. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lori Rubinson
WFAN, wfan.com @lrubinson PLAN GOING IN: My plan was to take a safe 1st rounder, draft 2 WRs in top 3 picks, wait on QB given the depth, and take a flier on some high upside guys DID PLAN WORK? I mostly
executed the strategy. Not sure why I grabbed Wilson at QB. Think there was equal value later. I took a TE earlier than expected but thought Kelce was good value in PPR. I like taking chances late with guys like Coleman and Charles who could surprise
BEST PICK: I like both Cook
(5th Round) and Ajayi (2nd Round) selections. Thought both were good value.
WORST PICK: I think I reached too early for a QB, Russell Wilson (6th Round). There’s a lot of depth there and I recommend waiting to draft one later
6. Jones, Julio ATL 23. Ajayi, Jay MIA 34. Jeffery, Alshon PHI 51. Kelce, Travis KC 62. Cook, Dalvin MIN 79. Wilson, Russell SEA 90. Decker, Eric NYJ 107. Coleman, Corey CLE 118. Charles, Jamaal DEN 135. Bernard, Giovani CIN 146. Seattle Seahawks 163. Brate, Cameron TB 174. Santos, Cairo KC
80 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | mock draft commentary
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Howard Bender
JD Bollick
FantasyAlarm.com @rotobuzzguy PLAN GOING IN: Load up on as many RB and WR early on and don’t worry about QB and TE until later. Can never have enough WRs or RBs. DID PLAN WORK? For the
most part yes, though probably should have gone WR instead of Ertz. Still, very comfortable with this squad.
BEST PICK: Samaje Perine (9th
Round) -- Nice bargain price for the best RB in the Redskins backfield. Rob Kelley can’t hold him off.
WORST PICK: Spencer Ware
(4th Round) -- Sounds like Kareem Hunt is going to be given more than enough opportunity to poach work from Ware.
The Fantasy Football Guide @JohnDavidBolick
7. Beckham Jr., Odell NYG 22. Fournette, Leonard JAX 35. Lynch, Marshawn OAK 50. Ware, Spencer KC 63. Matthews, Rishard TEN 78. Williams, Tyrell LAC
106. Mariota, Marcus TEN 119. Perine, Samaje WAS 134. Fuller V, Will HOU 147. Wentz, Carson PHI
WORST PICK: Who knows how
many targets Brandon Marshall (4th Round) will get, so he’s a gamble. I should have grabbed Montgomery.
36. Rodgers, Aaron GB 49. Marshall, Brandon NYG 64. Perkins, Paul NYG 77. Graham, Jimmy SEA 92. Gore, Frank IND 105. Wallace, Mike BAL 120. Brown, John ARI 133. Kansas City Chiefs 148. Dalton, Andy CIN
175. Lutz, Wil NO
176. Williams, Joe SF
Lawr Michaels
Mastersball.com @lawrmichaels
9. McCoy, LeSean BUF 20. Bryant, Dez DAL 37. Moncrief, Donte IND
potential lead back as late as Doug Martin (8th Round), suspension or not.
65. Anderson, C.J. DEN
48. Lacy, Eddie SEA
76. Parker, DeVante MIA 93. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 104. Martin, Doug TB 121. Rudolph, Kyle MIN 132. Stills, Kenny MIA 149. Arizona Cardinals
PLAN GOING IN: Make sure and get a prime RB first, and one who can catch, and then exploit the No. 2 WR slot as much as I could from there on out. DID PLAN WORK? I think
10. Gordon, Melvin LAC 19. Hilton, T.Y. IND 38. Crabtree, Michael OAK
so: Hilton, Crabtree, Benjamin, and Perriman make for a pretty good corps of WR, considering I focused more on RB.
47. Riddick, Theo DET
(11th Round): Still just 30, averaging 830 yards and six TDs over the last three years.
94. Engram, Evan NYG
(7th Round): I do like him, but I should have grabbed Jason Witten first, then Engram. By the time I went for Witten, he was gone.
122. Perriman, Breshad BAL
BEST PICK: Jonathan Stewart
WORST PICK: Even Engram
66. Carr, Derek OAK 75. Benjamin, Kelvin CAR
103. Richard, Jalen OAK
131. Taylor, Tyrod BUF 150. Stewart, Jonathan CAR
160. Palmer, Carson ARI
159. Pittsburgh Steelers
177. McManus, Brandon DEN
178. Walsh, Blair SEA
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Aaron Rodgers (3rd Round) made it to me in third. That’s not cleverness on my part, it’s everyone else criminally underrating his value.
21. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU
161. Bryant, Matt ATL
DID PLAN WORK? Yes. I would have liked one more WR that I could count on though.
WORST PICK: Eddie Lacy (4th Round), not cause I dislike his game, but calories are a strong draw, and could have used a WR in that spot.
ended up with players who should see the field often when healthy, but health may be an issue given how old my team is. I’ll cross my fingers and hope for the best.
8. Freeman, Devonta ATL
162. Minnesota Vikings
Ray Flowers
BEST PICK: Hard to find a
DID PLAN WORK? I definitely
BEST PICK: I still can’t believe
91. Ertz, Zach PHI
Guru Elite @baseballguys PLAN GOING IN: Pretty simple for me. Wait on QB and TE while trying to build a solid RB base.
PLAN GOING IN: I wanted to prioritize playing time. You can’t produce stats from the bench, so situations with limited competition should be preferred.
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mock draft commentary
Mike Clay
ESPN.com @MikeClayNFL PLAN GOING IN: Wait at QB, target a value at TE and ensure I grab a stud RB early on since it’s 14 teams and we can only start a max of three WR (including the flex) DID PLAN WORK?
Absolutely. I ended up strong and deep at WR, but still landed Murray, a top-five PPR TE in Walker and a quality QB in Stafford.
BEST PICK: Adrian Peterson
(9th Round) - Hard to believe Peterson can be had in the ninth round. He’ll pay big dividends, even in a lesser role.
WORST PICK: Julius Thomas (12th Round) - Nothing more than a dart-throw, but I’m unlikely to use him much if Walker stays healthy
11. Green, A.J. CIN 18. Murray, DeMarco TEN 39. Landry, Jarvis MIA 46. Sanders, Emmanuel DEN 67. Diggs, Stefon MIN 74. Abdullah, Ameer DET 95. Walker, Delanie TEN 102. Hunt, Kareem KC 123. Peterson, Adrian NO 130. Stafford, Matthew DET
BEST PICK: Matt Ryan (6th Round): Yes, there’s a new OC, but Ryan was elite last year. He shouldn’t fall to Round 6.
WORST PICK: Phil Dawson (13th Round): What do you say we abolish the kicker in fantasy football?
17. McCaffrey, Christian CAR 40. Crowell, Isaiah CLE 45. Watkins, Sammy BUF 68. Olsen, Greg CAR 73. Ryan, Matt ATL 96. White, James NE 101. Matthews, Jordan PHI 124. Henry, Hunter LAC 129. Maclin, Jeremy BAL
157. Kamara, Alvin NO
179. Hopkins, Dustin WAS
180. Dawson, Phil ARI
DID PLAN WORK? Not really, got bogged down in lack of flexiblity and made mistakes along the way. Felt like I recovered well from a poor early start.
WORST PICK: Amari Cooper (1st Round): Didn’t love anyone at the spot at the end of the first. Probably should have gone a different direction.
DID PLAN WORK? The plan helped me get Matt Ryan, but I don’t feel great about my wideouts after Nelson. That’s not a great sign in PPR.
12. Nelson, Jordy GB
158. Thomas, Julius MIA
PLAN GOING IN: Always take
Round): He was a consensus top 3 pick last season and comes in with the same situation, a better coach, and a QB that is no longer a rookie.
PLAN GOING IN: Picking late, I basically wanted to take the best player available and wait a while on quarterback.
152. New England Patriots
Justin Mason
BEST PICK: Todd Gurley (2nd
Street & Smith’s @sethroto
151. Jacksonville Jaguars
FriendsWithFantasyBenefits.com @justinmason
best available player.
Seth Trachtman
13. Cooper, Amari OAK 16. Gurley, Todd LAR 41. Allen, Keenan LAC 44. Hyde, Carlos SF 69. Newton, Cam CAR 72. Doctson, Josh WAS 97. Eifert, Tyler CIN 100. Kelley, Rob WAS 125. Williams, Mike LAC 128. Prescott, Dak DAL
Steve Gardner
USA TODAY Sports @SteveAGardner PLAN GOING IN: Favor younger players over older ones. And from the No. 14 spot, try to lead the position runs to keep from being left out. DID PLAN WORK? I went
young early, I got the TE I wanted in Reed and took the best kicker. Nabbing Brees at the 5/6 turn will make this team very competitive.
BEST PICK: Taking Cameron
Meredith (7th Round) had several other owners in the chat room grumbling. That’s always a good sign.
WORST PICK: Golden Tate. I
could have selected Brandon Marshall or Julian Edelman, but probably should have gone for a No. 2 RB.
14. Howard, Jordan CHI 15. Thomas, Michael NO 42. Reed, Jordan WAS 43. Tate, Golden DET 70. Brees, Drew NO 71. Powell, Bilal NYJ 98. Meredith, Cameron CHI 99. Cobb, Randall GB 126. Bennett, Martellus GB 127. Tucker, Justin BAL
153. Njoku, David CLE
154. Hill, Jeremy CIN
156. Bailey, Dan DAL
155. Watson, Deshaun HOU
181. Baltimore Ravens
182. Carolina Panthers
82 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | mock draft commentary
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2016 RANKING | NFFC SCORING PASSING: TC=6, 20 YDS=1, 2PT CONV=2, INTERCEPTION=-2 RUSH/REC: TD=6, 10 YDS=1, RECEPTION=1, 2PT CONV=2, FUMBLE=-1 KICKING: XP=1, FG <30 YDS=3, FG>30=0.1 PT PER YARD Quarterbacks
23 Terrance West
BAL
20 Emmanuel Sanders
DEN
2
Kyle Rudolph
MIN
PHI
21 Terrelle Pryor Sr.
CLE
3
Greg Olsen
CAR
# Player
Team
24 Darren Sproles
1
GB
25 Theo Riddick
DET
22 Pierre Garcon
WAS
4
Jimmy Graham
SEA
NE
23 Tyreek Hill
KC
5
Delanie Walker
TEN
Aaron Rodgers
2
Matt Ryan
ATL
26 James White
3
Drew Brees
NO
27 Jonathan Stewart
CAR
24 Kelvin Benjamin
CAR
6
Zach Ertz
PHI
28 Chris Thompson
WAS
25 Kenny Britt
LA
7
Cameron Brate
TB
26 Mike Wallace
BAL
8
Dennis Pitta
BAL
27 DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
9
Jordan Reed
WAS
28 Allen Robinson
JAX
10 Martellus Bennett
NE
29 Adam Thielen
MIN
11
DAL
30 Jamison Crowder
WAS
12 Antonio Gates
SD
31 Stefon Diggs
MIN
13 Jack Doyle
IND
32 Cole Beasley
DAL
14 Eric Ebron
DET
33 A.J. Green
CIN
15 Charles Clay
BUF
34 Brandon LaFell
CIN
16 C.J. Fiedorowicz
HOU
35 Willie Snead
NO
17 Hunter Henry
SD
36 Sterling Shepard
NYG
18 Coby Fleener
NO
37 DeSean Jackson
WAS
19 Gary Barnidge
CLE
38 Steve Smith Sr.
BAL
20 Zach Miller
CHI
39 Cameron Meredith
CHI
21 Vernon Davis
WAS
40 Dez Bryant
DAL
22 Lance Kendricks
LA
41 Anquan Boldin
DET
23 Dwayne Allen
IND
4
Andrew Luck
IND
5
Kirk Cousins
WAS
29 Devontae Booker
DEN
30 Jerick McKinnon
MIN
6
Philip Rivers
SD
7
Dak Prescott
DAL
31 Duke Johnson Jr.
CLE
8
Matthew Stafford
DET
32 Ryan Mathews
PHI
9
Derek Carr
OAK
33 T.J. Yeldon
JAX
10 Jameis Winston
TB
34 Christine Michael
2TM
11
TEN
35 Rashad Jennings
NYG
JAX
36 Matt Asiata
MIN
13 Tom Brady
NE
37 Robert Kelley
WAS
14 Russell Wilson
SEA
38 Tim Hightower
NO
15 Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
39 Mike Gillislee
BUF
16 Andy Dalton
CIN
40 Giovani Bernard
CIN
17 Carson Palmer
ARI
41 Jalen Richard
OAK
18 Tyrod Taylor
BUF
42 Shaun Draughn
SF
19 Cam Newton
CAR
43 Robert Turbin
IND
20 Eli Manning
NYG
44 Derrick Henry
TEN
42 Marvin Jones Jr.
DET
24 Ryan Griffin
HOU
21 Joe Flacco
BAL
45 C.J. Anderson
DEN
43 Jordan Matthews
PHI
25 Tyler Eifert
CIN
22 Sam Bradford
MIN
46 Kenneth Dixon
BAL
44 Kenny Stills
MIA
26 Rob Gronkowski
NE
23 Alex Smith
KC
47 Chris Ivory
JAX
45 Quincy Enunwa
NYJ
27 Will Tye
NYG
24 Carson Wentz
PHI
48 DeAngelo Williams
PIT
46 Marqise Lee
JAX
28 Jesse James
PIT
25 Trevor Siemian
DEN
49 Damien Williams
MIA
47 Dontrelle Inman
SD
29 Jermaine Gresham
ARI
26 Ryan Tannehill
MIA
50 Zach Zenner
DET
48 Brandon Marshall
NYJ
30 Vance McDonald
SF
27 Colin Kaepernick
SF
51 Charcandrick West
KC
49 DeVante Parker
MIA
28 Brock Osweiler
HOU
52 Travaris Cadet
NO
50 Ted Ginn Jr.
CAR
29 Ryan Fitzpatrick
NYJ
53 Jacquizz Rodgers
TB
51 Jeremy Kerley
SF
# Players
Team
30 Case Keenum
LAR
54 Doug Martin
TB
52 Mohamed Sanu
ATL
1
Justin Tucker
BAL
31 Brian Hoyer
CHI
55 DeAndre Washington
OAK
53 Alshon Jeffery
CHI
2
Matt Bryant
ATL
32 Cody Kessler
CLE
56 Matt Jones
WAS
54 Randall Cobb
GB
3
Dustin Hopkins
WAS
33 Matt Barkley
CHI
57 Rex Burkhead
CIN
55 Taylor Gabriel
ATL
4
Caleb Sturgis
PHI
34 Blaine Gabbert
SF
58 Jeremy Langford
CHI
56 Travis Benjamin
SD
5
Adam Vinatieri
IND
35 Josh McCown
CLE
59 Paul Perkins
NYG
57 Ty Montgomery
GB
6
Matt Prater
DET
36 Jared Goff
LAR
60 Thomas Rawls
SEA
58 Chris Hogan
NE
7
Graham Gano
CAR
61 Fozzy Whittaker
CAR
59 Adam Humphries
TB
8
Wil Lutz
NOR
62 Kyle Juszczyk
BAL
60 Terrance Williams
DAL
9
Cairo Santos
KAN
63 Charles Sims
TB
Marcus Mariota
12 Blake Bortles
Running Backs # Players
Team
1
David Johnson
ARI
2
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL
3
Le'Veon Bell
PIT
# Players
4
LeSean McCoy
BUF
1
5
DeMarco Murray
TEN
6
Devonta Freeman
Jason Witten
Kickers
61 Tavon Austin
LA
10 Steven Hauschka
SEA
62 J.J. Nelson
ARI
11
NWE
63 Eli Rogers
PIT
12 Nick Novak
HOU
Team
64 Tyler Lockett
SEA
13 Dan Bailey
DAL
Jordy Nelson
GB
65 Will Fuller V
HOU
14 Sebastian Janikowski
OAK
2
Antonio Brown
PIT
66 Tyler Boyd
CIN
15 Jason Myers
JAX
ATL
3
Mike Evans
TB
67 Robert Woods
BUF
Wide Receivers
Stephen Gostkowski
Defense/Special Teams
7
Melvin Gordon
LAC
4
Odell Beckham Jr.
NYG
68 Michael Floyd
NE
8
Mark Ingram
NO
5
T.Y. Hilton
IND
69 Brian Quick
LA
1
Kansas City
9
LeGarrette Blount
NE
6
Julio Jones
ATL
70 Robby Anderson
NYJ
2
Minnesota
10 Jordan Howard
CHI
7
Michael Thomas
NO
71 Jeremy Maclin
KC
3
Denver
11
MIA
8
Doug Baldwin
SEA
72 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
4
Arizona
IND
9
Davante Adams
GB
73 Seth Roberts
OAK
5
Baltimore
TEN
6
Philadelphia
Jay Ajayi
12 Frank Gore 13 Latavius Murray
OAK
10 Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
74 Tajae Sharpe
14 Isaiah Crowell
CLE
11
NO
75 Victor Cruz
NYG
7
Tampa Bay
15 TodD Gurley
LAR
12 Michael Crabtree
OAK
76 Donte Moncrief
IND
8
New England
16 Spencer Ware
KC
13 Jarvis Landry
MIA
77 John Brown
ARI
9
Carolina
14 Demaryius Thomas
DEN
78 Breshad Perriman
BAL
10 Miami
Brandin Cooks
17 Bilal Powell
NYJ
18 Carlos Hyde
SF
15 Amari Cooper
OAK
79 Allen Hurns
JAX
11
19 Lamar Miller
HOU
16 Julian Edelman
NE
80 Jermaine Kearse
SEA
12 NY Giants
20 Tevin Coleman
ATL
17 Golden Tate
DET
21 Matt Forte
NYJ
18 Tyrell Williams
SD
# Players
Team
22 Jeremy Hill
CIN
19 Rishard Matthews
TEN
1
KC
Tight Ends Travis Kelce
San Diego
13 Seattle 14 Buffalo 15 Atlanta
DRAFT AT A GLANCE | THEFANTASYFOOTBALLGUIDE2017 | 83
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2017-06-21 10:59 AM
Draft at a Glance | NFFC SCORING WR Adjustments Austin add 160 rush yards and 1 rush TD Lockett add 100 rush yards and 1 rush TD Hill add 300 rush yards and 3 rush TD
Passing: TC=6, 20 yds=1, 2pt conv=2, Interception=-2 Rush/Rec: TD=6, 10 yds=1, Reception=1, 2pt conv=2, fumble=-1 Kicking: XP=1, FG <30 yds=3, FG>30=0.1 pt per yard Quarterbacks
23 Frank Gore
Ind
165
20 Golden Tate
Det
212
2
Greg Olsen
Car
219
Cin
162
21 Kelvin Benjamin
Car
207
3
Jordan Reed
Was
213
# Player
Team Points
24 Joe Mixon
1
GB
490
25 Mike Gillislee
NE
158
22 Larry Fitzgerald
Ari
204
4
Travis Kelce
KC
209
NYG
154
23 Michael Crabrtree
Oak
201
5
Jimmy Graham
Sea
201
Aaron Rodgers
2
Tom Brady
NE
464
26 Paul Perkins
3
Andrew Luck
Ind
457
27 Bilal Powell
NYJ
152
24 Terrelle Pryor
Was
200
6
Delanie Walker
Ten
186
28 Eddie Lacy
Sea
148
25 Brandon Marshall
NYG
199
7
Tyler Eifert
Cin
176
26 Julian Edelman
NE
198
8
Zach Ertz
Phi
173
27 Emmanuel Sanders
Den
192
9
Martellus Bennett
GB
163
28 Willie Snead
NO
190
10 Kyle Rudolph
Min
160
29 Tyreek Hill
KC
188
11
LAC
157
30 Stefon Diggs
Min
186
12 Eric Ebron
Det
151
31 Donte Moncrief
Ind
185
13 Jack Doyle
Ind
143
32 Keenan Allen
LAC
183
14 Coby Fleener
NO
141
4
Drew Brees
NO
421
5
Matt Ryan
Atl
412
29 Danny Woodhead
Bal
146
Min
145
6
Russell Wilson
Sea
391
30 Latavius Murray
7
Derek Carr
Oak
382
31 Matt Forte
NYJ
142
8
Cam Newton
Car
374
32 Doug Martin
TB
141
9
Philip Rivers
LAC
372
33 Rob Kelley
Was
140
TB
366
34 Derrick Henry
Ten
138
10 Jameis Winston 11
Kirk Cousins
12 Ben Roethlisberger
Was
364
35 Adrian Peterson
NO
136
Pit
359
36 Ameer Abdullah
Det
135
Det
134
13 Marcus Mariota
Ten
359
37 Theo Riddick
14 Matt Stafford
Det
340
38 Jonathan Stewart
Car
124
Bal
123
15 Dak Prescott
Dal
338
39 Kenneth Dixon
16 Tyrod Taylor
Buf
334
40 Jeremy Hill
Cin
118
Sea
116
17 Blake Bortles
Jax
326
41 Thomas Rawls
18 Andy Dalton
Cin
322
42 Kareem Hunt
KC
115
Cle
114
19 Eli Manning
NYG
322
43 Duke Johnson
20 Carson Palmer
Ari
318
44 LeGarrette Blount
Phi
110
Was
104
21 Carson Wentz
Phi
302
45 Samaje Perine
22 Ryan Tannehill
Mia
293
46 Darren Sproles
Phi
102
23 Joe Flacco
Bal
276
47 Jamaal Williams
GB
100
24 Sam Bradford
Min
261
48 Dion Lewis
NE
97
25 Alex Smith
KC
255
49 Devontae Booker
Den
96
Cin
91
Hunter Henry
33 Quincy Enunwa
NYJ
182
15 Jason Witten
Dal
134
34 Corey Davis
Ten
182
16 Julius Thomas
Mia
132
35 Jordan Matthews
Phi
181
17 Antonio Gates
LAC
128
36 DeSean Jackson
TB
178
18 Cameron Brate
TB
125
37 Mike Wallace
Bal
177
38 Jamison Crowder
Was
176
19 Charles Clay
Buf
123
39 Randall Cobb
GB
174
20 Zach Miller
Chi
121
40 Corey Coleman
Cle
171
21 David Njoku
Cle
113
22 O.J. Howard
TB
112
23 Austin Hooper
Atl
111
24 Jared Cook
Oak
110
25 Vernon Davis
Was
109
26 CJ Fiedorowicz
Hou
101
27 Tyler Higbee
LAR
100
28 Evan Engram
NYG
99
29 Vance McDonald
SF
93
30 Jesse James
Pit
92
41 Martavis Bryant
Pit
169
42 John Brown
Ari
165
43 Pierre Garcon
SF
164
44 Sterling Shepard
NYG
162
45 Cameron Meredith
Chi
161
46 Tyrell Williams
LAC
160
47 Mike Williams
LAC
156
26 Mike Glennon
Chi
239
50 Giovani Bernard
48 Devante Parker
Mia
154
27 Jared Goff
LAR
222
51 DeAndre Washington
Oak
89
49 Marvin Jones
Det
150
NE
87
Kickers
28 DeShaun Watson
Hou
205
52 James White
50 Rishard Matthews
Ten
149
29 Trevor Siemian
Den
175
53 TJ Yeldon
Jax
86
51 Adam Thielen
Min
147
SF
154
Hou
84
Team Points
30 Brian Hoyer
54 De'Onta Foreman
# Players
52 Kenny Britt
Cle
144
175
129
83
Bal
Cle
Was
Justin Tucker
31 Cody Kessler
55 Chris Thompson
1
53 Zay Jones
Buf
142
2
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
165
32 Paxton Lynch
Den
118
56 CJ Prosise
Sea
82
54 Tyler Lockett
Sea
136
3
Matt Bryant
Atl
155
33 Josh McCown
NYJ
115
57 Jalen Richard
Oak
81
55 Breshad Perriman
Bal
141
4
Dan Bailey
Dal
152
34 Tom Savage
Hou
111
58 Wendell Smallwood
Phi
81
56 Eric Decker
139
5
Cairo Santos
KC
150
35 Mitch Trubisky
Chi
104
59 Charles Sims
TB
80
57 Kenny Stills
Mia
134
6
Graham Gano
Car
148
36 Ryan Fitzpatrick
TB
100
60 Alvin Kamara
NO
79
58 Michael Floyd
Min
133
7
Mason Crosby
GB
143
61 Marlon Mack
Ind
78
59 Will Fuller
Hou
127
8
Adam Vinatieri
Ind
142
62 Darren McFadden
Dal
77
60 Josh Doctson
Was
125
9
Caleb Sturgis
Phi
138
63 Jacquizz Rodgers
TB
67
61 John Ross
Cin
122
10 Dustin Hopkins
Was
136
62 Kevin White
Chi
121
11
Den
135
Running Backs # Players
Team Points
1
David Johnson
Ari
359
2
Ezekiel Elliott
Dal
310
63 Taylor Gabriel
Atl
120
132
Pit
293
Team Points
NO
Le'Veon Bell
# Players
12 Will Lutz
3
64 Ted Ginn Jr
NO
116
Antonio Brown
Pit
341
13 Blair Walsh
Sea
128
65 Jeremy Maclin
Bal
115
14 Matt Prater
Det
126
15 Sebastian Janikowski
Oak
125
Wide Receivers
4
Devonta Freeman
Atl
281
1
5
Melvin Gordon
LAC
275
2
Odell Beckham Jr
NYG
324
66 Marquise Lee
Jax
115
6
LeSean McCoy
Buf
268
3
Mike Evans
TB
315
67 Cole Beasley
Dal
114
Brandon McManus
Defense/Special Teams
7
DeMarco Murray
Ten
247
4
Julio Jones
Atl
313
68 Allen Hurns
Jax
113
8
Jordan Howard
Chi
237
5
Jordy Nelson
GB
296
69 JJ Nelson
Ari
109
1
9
Todd Gurley
LAR
231
6
AJ Green
Cin
275
70 Mohamad Sanu
Atl
108
2
Minnesota Vikings
10 Jay Ajayi
Mia
220
7
TY Hilton
Ind
264
71 Eli Rogers
Pit
106
3
Arizona Cardinals
11
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Jax
209
8
Michael Thomas
NO
263
72 Tavon Austin
LAR
104
4
12 Lamar Miller
Hou
207
9
Amari Cooper
Oak
261
73 Torrey Smith
Phi
103
5
Kansas City Chiefs
13 Isaiah Crowell
Cle
206
10 Brandin Cooks
NE
256
74 Kendall Wright
Chi
102
6
New England Patriots
14 Carlos Hyde
SF
196
11
Dal
254
75 Brandon LaFell
Cin
101
7
Seattle Seahawks
15 CJ Anderson
Den
194
12 DeAndre Hopkins
Hou
251
76 Laquon Treadwell
Min
99
8
New York Giants
16 Spencer Ware
KC
193
13 Demaryius Thomas
Den
240
77 Tyler Boyd
Cin
98
9
Baltimore Ravens
17 Mark Ingram
NO
192
14 Doug Baldwin
Sea
237
78 Chris Conley
KC
97
10 Houston Texans
18 Tevin Coleman
Atl
189
15 Allen Robinson
Jax
232
79 Robby Anderson
NYJ
96
11
16 Davante Adams
GB
225
80 Curtis Samuel
Car
95
12 Philadelphia Eagles
Leonard Fournette
Dez Bryant
19 Christian McCaffrey
Car
184
20 Marshawn Lynch
Oak
181
17 Jarvis Landry
Mia
223
Buf
222
# Players
Team Points
Phi
220
1
NE
21 Dalvin Cook
Min
175
18 Sammy Watkins
22 Ty Montgomery
GB
174
19 Alshon Jeffery
13 Los Angeles Rams
Tight Ends Rob Gronkowski
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
243
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 San Diego Chargers
84 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | draft at a glance
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6/16/17 9:41 PM
Draft at a Glance | STANDARD SCORING WR Adjustments Austin add 160 rush yards and 1 rush TD Lockett add 100 rush yards and 1 rush TD Hill add 300 rush yards and 3 rush TD
Passing: TD=4, 25 yds=1, 2pt conv=2, Interception=-2 Rush/Rec: TD=6, 10 yds=1, 2pt conv=2, fumble=-1 Kicking: XP=1, FG <39 yds=3, FG (40-49 yds=4, FG 50+=5 Quarterbacks
23 Dalvin Cook
Min
132
20 Jarvis Landry
Mia
135
2
Greg Olsen
Car
138
Car
130
21 Golden Tate
Det
132
3
Jordan Reed
Was
137
# Player
Team Points
24 Christian McCaffrey
1
GB
352
25 Rob Kelley
Was
126
22 Brandon Marshall
NYG
128
4
Jimmy Graham
Sea
131
Min
125
23 Terrelle Pryor
Was
128
5
Travis Kelce
KC
129
Aaron Rodgers
2
Andrew Luck
Ind
345
26 Latavius Murray
3
Tom Brady
NE
343
27 Paul Perkins
NYG
124
24 Tyreek Hill
KC
128
6
Delanie Walker
Ten
121
28 Eddie Lacy
Sea
124
25 Michael Crabrtree
Oak
127
7
Tyler Eifert
Cin
116
26 Donte Moncrief
Ind
126
8
Martellus Bennett
GB
108
27 Larry Fitzgerald
Ari
125
9
Hunter Henry
LAC
105
28 DeSean Jackson
TB
125
10 Kyle Rudolph
Min
100
29 Emmanuel Sanders
Den
122
11
Phi
98
30 Corey Davis
Ten
120
12 Eric Ebron
Det
88
31 Willie Snead
NO
119
13 Jack Doyle
Ind
87
32 Mike Wallace
Bal
118
14 Coby Fleener
NO
86
4
Drew Brees
NO
307
5
Matt Ryan
Atl
301
29 Ty Montgomery
GB
119
294
30 Derrick Henry
Ten
119
6
Russell Wilson
Sea
7
Cam Newton
Car
292
31 Ameer Abdullah
Det
118
8
Derek Carr
Oak
279
32 Jonathan Stewart
Car
117
9
Marcus Mariota
Ten
269
33 Adrian Peterson
NO
115
Was
269
34 Matt Forte
NYJ
114
TB
267
35 Doug Martin
TB
114
LAC
266
36 Jeremy Hill
Cin
107
KC
103
10 Kirk Cousins 11
Jameis Winston
12 Philip Rivers 13 Tyrod Taylor
Buf
265
37 Kareem Hunt
14 Dak Prescott
Dal
261
38 LeGarrette Blount
Phi
103
Bal
102
Zach Ertz
33 Martavis Bryant
Pit
118
15 Cameron Brate
TB
82
34 Jamison Crowder
Was
116
16 Antonio Gates
LAC
78
35 Quincy Enunwa
NYJ
115
17 Jason Witten
Dal
77
36 Julian Edelman
NE
114
18 Julius Thomas
Mia
77
37 Keenan Allen
LAC
113
19 Zach Miller
Chi
76
38 Corey Coleman
Cle
110
20 Jared Cook
Oak
74
39 Jordan Matthews
Phi
109
21 O.J. Howard
TB
72
40 Tyrell Williams
LAC
108
22 Charles Clay
Buf
71
41 Stefon Diggs
Min
108
23 Vernon Davis
Was
70
15 Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
260
39 Danny Woodhead
16 Matt Stafford
Det
254
40 Thomas Rawls
Sea
95
17 Blake Bortles
Jax
246
41 Bilal Powell
NYJ
92
18 Andy Dalton
Cin
244
42 Kenneth Dixon
Bal
91
19 Carson Palmer
Ari
230
43 Theo Riddick
Det
88
20 Eli Manning
NYG
229
44 Jamaal Williams
GB
80
42 Randall Cobb
GB
107
24 Austin Hooper
Atl
69
21 Carson Wentz
Phi
227
45 Samaje Perine
Was
79
43 Mike Williams
LAC
106
25 David Njoku
Cle
65
22 Ryan Tannehill
Mia
216
46 Duke Johnson
Cle
78
44 Pierre Garcon
SF
106
26 Tyler Higbee
LAR
64
23 Joe Flacco
Bal
203
47 DeAndre Washington
Oak
71
45 Cameron Meredith
Chi
105
27 CJ Fiedorowicz
Hou
63
24 Sam Bradford
Min
194
48 Jalen Richard
Oak
68
46 Sterling Shepard
NYG
105
28 Vance McDonald
SF
63
25 Alex Smith
KC
194
49 James White
NE
67
47 Kenny Britt
Cle
104
29 Evan Engram
NYG
59
26 Mike Glennon
Chi
175
50 Alvin Kamara
NO
67
48 Marvin Jones
Det
103
30 Dwayne Allen
NE
57
27 Jared Goff
LAR
158
51 Giovani Bernard
Cin
66
49 Rishard Matthews
Ten
103
28 DeShaun Watson
Hou
152
52 Marlon Mack
Ind
66
50 John Brown
Ari
101
29 Trevor Siemian
Den
124
53 Darren Sproles
Phi
66
51 Adam Thielen
Min
100
# Players
Team Points
NE
65
52 Devante Parker
Mia
98
1
Justin Tucker
Kickers
30 Brian Hoyer
SF
110
54 Dion Lewis
Bal
175
31 Cody Kessler
Cle
94
55 CJ Prosise
Sea
65
53 Kenny Stills
Mia
95
2
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
165
Hou
64
54 Tyler Lockett
Sea
94
3
Matt Bryant
Atl
155
32 Paxton Lynch
Den
86
56 De'Onta Foreman
33 Josh McCown
NYJ
82
57 TJ Yeldon
Jax
63
55 Breshad Perriman
Bal
93
4
Dan Bailey
Dal
152
Den
59
56 Kevin White
Chi
89
5
Cairo Santos
KC
150 148
34 Tom Savage
Hou
78
58 Devontae Booker
35 Mitch Trubisky
Chi
74
59 Darren McFadden
Dal
57
57 Michael Floyd
Min
89
6
Graham Gano
Car
73
60 Jacquizz Rodgers
TB
57
58 Zay Jones
Buf
88
7
Mason Crosby
GB
143
61 Wendell Smallwood
Phi
55
59 Eric Decker
88
8
Adam Vinatieri
Ind
142
62 Charles Sims
TB
55
60 Taylor Gabriel
Atl
86
9
Caleb Sturgis
Phi
138
55
61 John Ross
Cin
85
10 Dustin Hopkins
Was
136
62 Will Fuller
Hou
81
11
Den
135
36 Ryan Fitzpatrick
TB
Running Backs # Players
Team Points
1
David Johnson
Ari
293
2
Ezekiel Elliott
Dal
280
63 Josh Doctson
Was
80
12 Will Lutz
NO
132
3
Le'Veon Bell
Pit
235
# Players
Team Points
64 JJ Nelson
Ari
79
13 Blair Walsh
Sea
128
4
Melvin Gordon
LAC
232
1
Antonio Brown
Pit
219
65 Ted Ginn Jr
NO
76
14 Matt Prater
Det
126
5
Devonta Freeman
Atl
228
2
Odell Beckham Jr
NYG
217
66 Cole Beasley
Dal
74
15 Sebastian Janikowski
Oak
125
6
LeSean McCoy
Buf
222
3
Julio Jones
Atl
214
67 Marquise Lee
Jax
74
7
Jordan Howard
Chi
205
4
Mike Evans
TB
214
68 Allen Hurns
Jax
73
Jordy Nelson
GB
199
69 Jeremy Maclin
Bal
71
1
63 Chris Thompson
Was
Wide Receivers
Brandon McManus
Defense/Special Teams Denver Broncos
8
DeMarco Murray
Ten
197
5
9
Jay Ajayi
Mia
195
6
AJ Green
Cin
184
70 Tavon Austin
LAR
70
2
Minnesota Vikings
Michael Thomas
NO
179
71 Mohamad Sanu
Atl
69
3
Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers
10 Todd Gurley
LAR
188
7
11
Jax
184
8
Dez Bryant
Dal
178
72 Torrey Smith
Phi
69
4
Hou
177
9
TY Hilton
Ind
177
73 Kendall Wright
Chi
68
5
Kansas City Chiefs
Cin
68
6
New England Patriots
Leonard Fournette
12 Lamar Miller 13 Isaiah Crowell
Cle
175
10 Brandin Cooks
NE
168
74 Brandon LaFell
14 Carlos Hyde
SF
171
11
Oak
167
75 Laquon Treadwell
Min
66
7
Seattle Seahawks
12 Davante Adams
GB
159
76 Robby Anderson
NYJ
64
8
New York Giants Baltimore Ravens
Amari Cooper
15 CJ Anderson
Den
167
16 Tevin Coleman
Atl
159
13 DeAndre Hopkins
Hou
157
77 Eli Rogers
Pit
64
9
14 Doug Baldwin
Sea
153
78 Curtis Samuel
Car
61
10 Houston Texans
17 Spencer Ware
KC
158
18 Marshawn Lynch
Oak
153
15 Allen Robinson
Jax
151
79 Terrance Williams
Dal
61
11
16 Sammy Watkins
Buf
150
80 Chris Conley
KC
58
12 Philadelphia Eagles
19 Mark Ingram
NO
151
20 Mike Gillislee
NE
149
17 Demaryius Thomas
Den
146
Phi
145
# Players
Team Points
Car
138
1
NE
21 Frank Gore
Ind
138
18 Alshon Jeffery
22 Joe Mixon
Cin
135
19 Kelvin Benjamin
13 Los Angeles Rams
Tight Ends Rob Gronkowski
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
166
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 San Diego Chargers
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Draft at a Glance | AUCTION STYLE $200 12 TEAMS: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 2Flex, 1TE, 1K, 1Def, 9 Bench
Quarterbacks # Player
24 Frank Gore
Ind
$11
22 Larry Fitzgerald
Ari
$14
3
Travis Kelce
KC
$18
Team $
25 Mike Gillislee
NE
$8
23 Michael Crabrtree
Oak
$13
4
Jordan Reed
Was
$12
NYG
$7
24 Terrelle Pryor
Was
$11
5
Jimmy Graham
Sea
$11
1
Aaron Rodgers
GB
$43
26 Paul Perkins
2
Tom Brady
NE
$40
27 Bilal Powell
NYJ
$7
25 Julian Edelman
NE
$10
6
Delanie Walker
Ten
$9
Bal
$6
26 Brandon Marshall
NYG
$10
7
Tyler Eifert
Cin
$6
Min
$6
27 Emmanuel Sanders
Den
$8
8
Zach Ertz
Phi
$5
NO
$8
9
Martellus Bennett
GB
$4
3
Andrew Luck
Ind
$36
28 Danny Woodhead
4
Drew Brees
NO
$34
29 Latavius Murray
5
Matt Ryan
Atl
$30
30 Matt Forte
NYJ
$6
28 Willie Snead
6
Russell Wilson
Sea
$23
31 Eddie Lacy
Sea
$6
29 Donte Moncrief
Ind
$7
10 Hunter Henry
LAC
$4
KC
$7
11
Min
$4
Kyle Rudolph
7
Cam Newton
Car
$20
32 Doug Martin
TB
$6
30 Tyreek Hill
8
Derek Carr
Oak
$17
33 Rob Kelley
Was
$6
31 Stefon Diggs
Min
$7
12 Eric Ebron
Det
$3
LAC
$6
13 Jack Doyle
Ind
$3
Jameis Winston
TB
$16
34 Adrian Peterson
NO
$4
32 Keenan Allen
10 Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
$14
35 Derrick Henry
Ten
$4
33 Quincy Enunwa
NYJ
$6
14 Jason Witten
Dal
$2
Ten
$6
15 Antonio Gates
LAC
$2
9
Philip Rivers
LAC
$12
36 Theo Riddick
Det
$3
34 Corey Davis
12 Kirk Cousins
Was
$11
37 Ameer Abdullah
Det
$3
35 Mike Wallace
Bal
$5
16 Julius Thomas
Mia
$2
36 Corey Coleman
Cle
$5
17 Coby Fleener
NO
$2
11
13 Marcus Mariota
Ten
$10
38 Kenneth Dixon
Bal
$2
14 Dak Prescott
Dal
$8
39 Jonathan Stewart
Car
$2
37 Randall Cobb
GB
$5
18 Austin Hooper
Atl
$1
Phi
$5
19 Charles Clay
Buf
$1
15 Matt Stafford
Det
$7
40 Jeremy Hill
Cin
$2
38 Jordan Matthews
16 Tyrod Taylor
Buf
$6
41 Duke Johnson
Cle
$2
39 Martavis Bryant
Pit
$5
20 Zach Miller
Chi
$1
TB
$5
21 David Njoku
Cle
$1
17 Andy Dalton
Cin
$5
42 Kareem Hunt
KC
$2
40 DeSean Jackson
18 Eli Manning
NYG
$4
43 LeGarrette Blount
Phi
$2
41 Jamison Crowder
Was
$5
22 Jared Cook
Oak
$1
Ari
$4
23 O.J. Howard
TB
$1
19 Carson Palmer
Ari
$3
44 Thomas Rawls
Sea
$2
42 John Brown
20 Blake Bortles
Jax
$3
45 Giovani Bernard
Cin
$1
43 Cameron Meredith
Chi
$4
24 Cameron Brate
TB
$1
LAC
$4
25 Vernon Davis
Was
$1
26 Tyler Higbee
LAR
21 Ryan Tannehill
Mia
$3
46 Darren McFadden
Dal
$1
44 Tyrell Williams
22 Carson Wentz
Phi
$3
47 Devontae Booker
Den
$1
45 Sterling Shepard
NYG
$4
23 Joe Flacco
Bal
$2
48 Jamaal Williams
GB
$1
46 Pierre Garcon
SF
$4
27 CJ Fiedorowicz
Hou
24 Sam Bradford
Min
$2
49 De'Onta Foreman
Hou
$1
47 Marvin Jones
Det
$3
28 Evan Engram
NYG
LAC
$3
29 Vance McDonald
SF
30 Jesse James
Pit
25 Mike Glennon
Chi
$1
50 Marlon Mack
Ind
$1
48 Mike Williams
26 Mitch Trubisky
Chi
$1
51 TJ Yeldon
Jax
$1
49 Devante Parker
Mia
$3
Ten
$3
27 Cody Kessler
Cle
$1
52 James White
NE
$1
50 Rishard Matthews
28 Trevor Siemian
Den
$1
53 Dion Lewis
NE
$1
51 Breshad Perriman
Bal
$2
29 Paxton Lynch
Den
$1
54 Alvin Kamara
NO
$1
52 Zay Jones
Buf
$2
30 DeShaun Watson
Hou
$1
55 Jalen Richard
Oak
$1
53 Kenny Britt
Cle
$2
31 Tom Savage
Hou
$1
56 DeAndre Washington
Oak
$1
54 Will Fuller
Hou
$2
32 Alex Smith
KC
$1
57 Darren Sproles
Phi
$1
55 Kenny Stills
Mia
$2
33 Jared Goff
LAR
$1
58 Wendell Smallwood
Phi
$1
56 Adam Thielen
Min
$2
34 Josh McCown
NYJ
$1
59 CJ Prosise
Sea
$1
57 Michael Floyd
Min
$2
35 Brian Hoyer
SF
$1
60 Charles Sims
TB
$1
58 Tyler Lockett
Sea
$2
36 Ryan Fitzpatrick
TB
61 Samaje Perine
Was
$1
59 Eric Decker
62 Chris Thompson
Was
$1
60 JJ Nelson
Ari
$1
63 James Conner
Pit
61 Taylor Gabriel
Atl
$1
62 Mohamad Sanu
Atl
$1
Running Backs # Players
Team $
1
David Johnson
Ari
$52
2
Ezekiel Elliott
Dal
$51
# Players
Team $
3
Le'Veon Bell
Pit
$50
1
Antonio Brown
Pit
$57
4
Devonta Freeman
Atl
$45
2
Odell Beckham Jr
NYG
$55
5
Melvin Gordon
LAC
$43
3
Mike Evans
TB
$53
Julio Jones
Atl
$51
Wide Receivers
6
LeSean McCoy
Buf
$40
4
7
DeMarco Murray
Ten
$39
5
Jordy Nelson
GB
$48
AJ Green
Cin
$46
8
Jordan Howard
Chi
$36
6
9
Todd Gurley
LAR
$35
7
TY Hilton
Ind
$44
10 Jay Ajayi
Mia
$35
8
Michael Thomas
NO
$42
11
Hou
$33
9
Amari Cooper
Oak
$39
12 Leonard Fournette
Jax
$29
10 Brandin Cooks
NE
$35
Lamar Miller
13 Isaiah Crowell
Cle
$28
11
Dal
$32
14 Carlos Hyde
SF
$28
12 DeAndre Hopkins
Dez Bryant
Hou
$29
15 CJ Anderson
Den
$25
13 Demaryius Thomas
Den
$28
16 Spencer Ware
KC
$25
14 Doug Baldwin
Sea
$28
17 Mark Ingram
NO
$24
15 Allen Robinson
Jax
$26
18 Tevin Coleman
Atl
$22
16 Davante Adams
GB
$25
19 Christian McCaffrey
Car
$22
17 Jarvis Landry
Mia
$23
20 Dalvin Cook
Min
$20
18 Sammy Watkins
Buf
$22
21 Marshawn Lynch
Oak
$20
19 Alshon Jeffery
Phi
$19
Det
$17
22 Ty Montgomery
GB
$12
20 Golden Tate
23 Joe Mixon
Cin
$11
21 Kelvin Benjamin
Car
$15
$2
63 Jeremy Maclin
Bal
$1
64 Kevin White
Chi
$1
65 Kendall Wright
Chi
$1
66 John Ross
Cin
$1
67 Brandon LaFell
Cin
$1
68 Tyler Boyd
Cin
$1
69 Cole Beasley
Dal
$1
70 Marquise Lee
Jax
$1
71 Allen Hurns
Jax
$1
72 Chris Conley
KC
$1
73 Tavon Austin
LAR
$1
74 Laquon Treadwell
Min
$1
75 Ted Ginn Jr
NO
$1
76 Robby Anderson
NYJ
$1
Kickers # Players
Team $
1
Justin Tucker
Bal
4
2
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
3
3
Matt Bryant
Atl
3
4
Dan Bailey
Dal
2
5
Cairo Santos
KC
2
6
Graham Gano
Car
2
7
Mason Crosby
GB
2
8
Adam Vinatieri
Ind
2
9
Caleb Sturgis
Phi
1
10 Dustin Hopkins
Was
1
11
Den
1
12 Will Lutz
NO
1
13 Blair Walsh
Sea
14 Matt Prater
Det
15 Sebastian Janikowski
Oak
Brandon McManus
Defense/Special Teams 1
Denver Broncos
9
2
Minnesota Vikings
6 4
3
Arizona Cardinals
4
Carolina Panthers
3
5
Kansas City Chiefs
3
6
New England Patriots
2
7
Seattle Seahawks
2
8
New York Giants
2
Baltimore Ravens
2
77 Torrey Smith
Phi
$1
78 Eli Rogers
Pit
$1
9
79 Josh Doctson
Was
$1
10 Houston Texans
1
80 Curtis Samuel
Car
11
1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12 Philadelphia Eagles
Tight Ends # Players
Team $
1
Rob Gronkowski
NE
$44
2
Greg Olsen
Car
$26
1
13 Los Angeles Rams 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 San Diego Chargers
86 | thefantasyfootballguide2017 | draft at a glance
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team profiles 2017 BUCK DAVIDSON Is a sports writer and photographer who has been involved in fantasy sports since the Internet was more a flight of fancy than a way of life. Despite his more than two decades of experience, though, he still seeks out the unique sports wisdom of his 97-year-old Granny Lil when the fantasy chips are truly down. This is Buck’s ninth year as a writer for the Fantasy Football Guide.
Photo: saiah J. Downing-USA TODAY
HERIJA C. GREEN
Born the illegitimate son of Lord Eddard of House Stark, Green was raised alongside his half
FFG17_87_TeamIntro_v3.indd 87
brothers and sisters in Winterfell, learning the art of sword fighting. Ostracized by Lord Stark;s wife, Green chose a life of honor and solitude by taking the black and becoming a member of the Night’s Watch. He has pretty hair, pretty eyes, and he knows nothing. He also writes. @VideoGamerRob
ZACH GREUBEL
Hails from the bustling metropolis of Cheyenne, Wyoming. He is a graduate of the University of Wyoming -- home to future No. 1 NFL draft pick Josh Allen. Three things he enjoys are football, Chick-Fil-A and Swedish Fish. Three things he doesn’t enjoy are kale, tofu and the company of those who enjoy either or both. He is a lifelong Denver Broncos fan, has been playing fantasy football since his early teenage years and contributes to Gridiron Experts.
KEITH HERNANDEZ
An avid fantasy sports gamer, he has been playing for more than 10 years. He’s written for
KFFL, USA TODAY Sports, RotoWire and currently serves as a managing news editor at RotoBaller. He’s competed in some of the most prestigious fantasy leagues in the nation, including LABR.
JASON HOFFMAN
Has been a Fantasy Football Guide veteran since 2009, and he has been playing in (and winning) fantasy football, basketball and baseball leagues since dialup internet was still a thing.
DOUG ORTH
Has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. http://www.fftoday.com @DougOrth
Buck Davidson Herija C. Green Zach Greubel Keith Hernandez Jason Hoffman Doug Orth Matt Wilson Edited by Herija C. Green
MATT WILSON See page 27.
6/16/17 8:36 PM
2017 TEAM PROFILE
ARIZONA CARDINALS Herija C. Green
A
humbling loss in the NFC Championship Game was supposed to serve as motivation to push last year’s Cardinals over the top. Instead, it set the tone for the worst showing of the Bruce Arians era. Arizona dropped three of four out of the gate, including deflating home losses to the Brady-less Patriots and offensively inept Rams, but managed to claw their way back to 4-4-1 after Week 10. They’d go 1-4 over their next five, however, ending any hope of a third straight playoff berth. Although three blowout wins created statistical respectability, the Cardinals rarely resembled the group that was one win from the Super Bowl a year earlier. There was no knee-jerk reaction to last year’s disappointment, but it’s concerning that the line out of the door was longer than the one coming in. Gone are five of the team’s top six tacklers from 2016 in Tony Jefferson, Calais Campbell, DJ Swearinger, Marcus Cooper and Keith Minter. They’ll try to plug the holes with a mix of free agents, notably Antoine Bethea and Karlos Dansby, and early-round draft choices Haason Reddick and Budda Baker. On offense, Carson Palmer returns for his 15th season after contemplating retirement during the offseason. Whatever his shortcomings, Palmer gives Arizona its best chance at a deep playoff run in 2017.
[HEAD COACH] After posting double-digit wins
in each of his first three years with the Cardinals,
BRUCE ARIANS experienced a losing season for
the first time in 2016—though it didn’t put a dent in the 64-year-old’s job security. Arians’ hyperaggressive approach can be seen in all facets of the game, and his players embrace it. There’s more pressure for Arians to win big in 2017 than you might imagine, however, with Palmer nearing retirement and no replacement on roster.
as many weapons at Palmer’s disposal, though, which explains the drop in yards per attempt from 8.7 in ‘15 to 7.1 last year. Entering his age38 season, Palmer is a decent QB2. [BACKUPS] DREW STANTON started for
Palmer in Week 5 and, coincidentally, beat
BLAINE GABBERT, who will challenge Stanton
Fifth-year offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin will try to squeeze another season of top-shelf play out of Palmer despite fewer weapons on the outside, while James Bettcher must cope with massive personnel changes and a questionable secondary in his third season as defensive coordinator. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] Regression to the mean was expected after CARSON PALMER put together
the best season of his career in 2015. To that end, the veteran’s yards and touchdowns fell as his interceptions and fumbles (an NFL-high 14) rose. His final numbers remained solid, and outside of a concussion that cost him a game he was healthy for the fourth time in five years. There aren’t
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Only one player in the NFL ac-
counted for more than 2,000 all-purpose yards last season: DAVID JOHNSON. The Northern Iowa product rushed for 1,239 yards (seventh in the league), caught 80 passes for 879 yards and scored a league-high 20 touchdowns. Johnson was a force of nature, showing speed, elusiveness and power in equal measure. His pass-catching abilities are on par with Le’Veon Bell, which should create plenty of chances in an aerial attack that’s suddenly lacking proven depth. Given his durability, Johnson owns a slight edge over Bell for the top overall pick.
[BACKUP] KERWYNN WILLIAMS has never
for reserve duties this year. Gabbert, nearly six years Stanton’s junior, started 13 games over the last two seasons and showed decent athleticism while minimizing big mistakes. Gabbert is likely the better talent, but Stanton, who arrived the same year as Arians, is 6-3 as a starter and knows the offense. Neither player would be worth owning if they were forced into action.
had anything resembling job security since joining the Cardinals three years ago, but Arians insists Williams will enter 2017 as Johnson’s primary backup despite logging just 18 carries last season. There’s no doubt the undersized back has produced in limited work (98-545-3 in his career), including out of the Wildcat. Whether he can replicate it over 16 games remains to be seen; that leaves Williams as little more than a dicey handcuff for Johnson owners.
[THIRD] In theory, ANDRE ELLINGTON is moving to receiver to help offset the talent erosion
Photo: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
J.J. NELSON
88 | THEFANTASYFOOTBALLGUIDE2017 | TEAM PROFILES
FFG17_88-121_teamsA-L_v4.indd 88
2017-06-19 11:59 AM
WK.1 WK.2 WK.3 WK.4 WK.5 WK.6
@LIONS @COLTS COWBOYS 49ERS @EAGLES BUCCANEERS
SUN. SEP 10 SUN. SEP 17 MON. SEP 25 SUN. OCT 01 SUN. OCT 08 SUN. OCT 15
1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 4:05PM
WK.7 WK.8 WK.9 WK.10 WK.11 WK.12
at the position. It makes sense as Ellington, who carries big-play potential, was a complete nonfactor last season (181 total yards) and has proven capable catching passes out of the backfield. Still, if Johnson went down it wouldn’t be a shock to see them turn to Ellington. Rookie TJ LOGAN is another smallish change-of-pace back with excellent speed in the open field. Barring injury, neither player deserves consideration. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] There are two ways to look at LARRY FITZGERALD’s performance this past season. On the plus side, his 107 receptions led the NFL and was the second-highest total of his career. The asterisk is that he averaged just 9.6 yards per catch; that was 116th out of 154 qualified candidates and fifth-worst among wideouts. While there’s no questioning the veteran’s toughness over the middle or ability in the red zone, his explosiveness is gone. As he nears the conclusion of a Hall of Fame career, Fitzgerald is a midrange WR3 in standard leagues and a low-end WR2 in point-per-reception formats. [STARTER] After topping 1,000 yards receiving in 2015, JOHN BROWN stumbled through last
year amid health struggles with sickle-cell trait. The 27-year-old had a cyst removed from his spine after the season and was reportedly back to full health. That’s music to the Cardinals’ ears as Brown’s excellent speed makes him the position’s top big-play threat, and his downfield prowess opens things up underneath for Fitzgerald and Johnson. Draft Brown as your fourth receiver with moderate risk/reward potential. [THIRD] JJ NELSON moved past Brown and
Michael Floyd last season, but that had more to do with their respective issues than Nelson’s performance. Although he had his moments, scoring in four consecutive games at one point, the 160-pound burner simply isn’t built for heavy work. He’s dangerous out of the slot, and his ability to stretch the field is unquestioned. Still, Nelson rates as late-round flier material.
[FOURTH] Third-rounder CHAD WILLIAMS is
tough to bring down with the ball in his hands and plays bigger than his 6-foot-1, 204-pound
RB WR WR QB WR
DAVID JOHNSON LARRY FITZGERALD JOHN BROWN CARSON PALMER JJ NELSON
@RAMS BYE @49ERS SEAHAWKS @TEXANS JAGUARS
SUN. OCT 22
1:00PM
SUN. THU. SUN. SUN.
4:05PM 8:25PM 1:00PM 4:25PM
NOV 05 NOV 09 NOV 19 NOV 26
WK.13 WK.14 WK.15 WK.16 WK.17
DEC 03 DEC 10 DEC 17 DEC 24 DEC 31
4:25PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 4:25PM 4:25PM
Catanzaro put up starting fantasy numbers. That makes Dawson better suited as a steaming option.
[RETURNERS] There’s no shortage of options in the return game as BRITTAN GOLDEN, ANDRE ELLINGTON, JARON BROWN and PATRICK PETERSON all posted 10 or more punt/kickoff
[FIFTH] In addition the aforementioned Ellington, JARON BROWN, AARON DOBSON and BRITTAN GOLDEN will compete for roster
berths. Brown and Golden have been with the club since 2013. Of the two, Brown, who is coming off a torn ACL, is the better receiver (55-700-5 career line), whereas Golden is a key contributor on special teams. Newcomer Dobson has done little since catching 37 passes as a rookie with the Patriots in ‘13. No one here holds any fantasy value. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] Arizona paid big money to keep JERMAINE GRESHAM in the desert. Much of
what Gresham brings to the table doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, as the veteran has just 55 catches for 614 yards and three touchdowns during his two-year tenure with the club. He could be in line for more opportunities in 2017 with fewer established options on offense. That being said, Gresham was so far from fantasy relevance last season it’s hard to imagine his production growing to that level. [BACKUP] Injuries have limited TROY NIKLAS
to 26 of a possible 48 games over his three NFL campaigns; that includes a season-ending wrist injury in Week 3 of 2016. The former Notre Dame standout has just eight receptions in his career, and time is running out for him to prove he belongs. Arizona hasn’t given up on Niklas yet, but he shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] After Chandler Catanzaro stumbled in big moments last season, the team signed PHIL DAWSON to stabilize the situation. The 42-yearold did well in limited chances with the 49ers, going 18-for-21 (85.7 percent) on FGAs and 33 of 34 on PATs in 2016. There’s definite upside to Arizona’s offense, but only once in three years did
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 1 54 120 160
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
frame suggests. He showed the ability to work deep in college, but scouts worry that he lacks the wheels to duplicate that at the NFL level. Coming out of Grambling, Williams looks like a developmental project. While he’ll make the team, his role figures to be minor.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 1 22 42 20 69
RAMS TITANS @WASHINGTON GIANTS @SEAHAWKS
returns. No one excelled, however, and that could open the door for rookie TJ LOGAN, who ran four kickoffs back for touchdowns during his career at North Carolina. JJ DEFENSE Only the Texans allowed fewer yards in 2016 than the Cardinals, but they ranked a middling 14th in points surrendered (22.6 per game). It was a blip in an otherwise solid effort as Arizona paced the NFL in sacks (48)—led by Markus Golden (12.5) and Chandler Jones (11)—and finished fourth in takeaways with 28. As good as all those numbers are, the mass exodus of talent is a concern; five starters from 2016 departed, including Calais Campbell, leaving some major holes to fill. If DC Harold Goodwin is able to get all of his newcomers to gel quickly the Cardinals defense could again be a force to be reckoned with, though there are safer options available. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Functioning as the third receiver in 2015, JOHN BROWN compiled 65 receptions for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns. Last year’s fall (39-517-2) was tied largely to his health woes, which seem to have abated. If he’s right, Brown is by far the most dangerous option the Cardinals have in the passing game. He’s well worth the risk in the middle rounds.
[OVERVALUED] LARRY FITZGERALD is one of the all-time greats, and his place in history is secure. He still creates separation underneath and moves the chains, but his athleticism has diminished significantly—just eight of 107 receptions last year went for 20 yards or more (down from 17 in ‘15). Fitz’s name value means he’ll likely go a few rounds too early.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 359 204 165 318 109
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 293 125 101 230 79
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $52 $14 $4 $3 $1
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ATLANTA FALCONS Jason Hoffmann
D
espite an early four-game winning stretch, Atlanta suffered through a spell with losses in four of seven contests. At 7-5, the Falcons found themselves tied atop the NFC South with Tampa Bay. During the team’s Week 13 loss to Kansas City, head coach Dan Quinn took over defensive play-calling duties. The move paid off as Atlanta won their final four to earn the division crown. The Falcons then pounded Seattle and Green Bay to earn their second Super Bowl berth. Once there they stormed to a 28-3 lead over the Patriots before surrendering 31 consecutive points to lose in overtime, 34-28, in the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] DAN QUINN’s job security
wasn’t really a concern heading into 2016, as owner Arthur Blank hasn’t been prone to knee-jerk firings. The Super Bowl run solidifies Quinn’s hold on the job, and he’s also proven to be on the same page as GM Thomas Dimitroff, whose contract was extended in December. Quinn will maintain his hands-on approach to the defense and continue to have a major say in personnel decisions, but his toughest task might be overcoming a potential Super Bowl hangover.
in the NFL. With all of Ryan’s key weapons returning, expect Ryan to be one of the best fantasy quarterbacks again in 2017.
[BACKUP] MATT SCHAUB threw only three passes last season with Atlanta, which was his fourth different stop in four seasons. Schaub, who hasn’t looked like a capable starter since 2012, has little left as a passer and wouldn’t be worth using
yards and 11 touchdowns—he finished sixth in the NFL in both rushing and total scores (13). The emergence of Tevin Coleman cut into Freeman’s workload, and his reception total fell from 73 in 2015 to 54 last year, but he was still fifth among NFL running backs in catches. Freeman is entering a contract year, but he has said negotiations will not affect his preparation for the season or cause him to hold out. He is one of the safer mid-level No. 1 fantasy backs out there.
[BACKUP] TEVIN COLEMAN was a touchdown machine (11 in 13 games) last season, outscoring more than half of the league’s starting RBs. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry and proved to be a dangerous option for Ryan out of the backfield— he led all backs in yards per catch (13.6) among those with at least 10 receptions. Injuries remain a concern, however, as he has missed seven games in two years due to a variety of maladies. He’s a dynamic complement to Freeman, but he’s on the shorter end of the timeshare. Consider Coleman a solid RB3 in most formats.
Steve Sarkisian was Alabama’s offensive coordinator for exactly one game, the National Championship. He plans to run a fast-paced, aggressive scheme that’s very similar to the one Shanahan ran. On defense, newly minted coordinator Marquand Manuel will call plays with input from Quinn.
JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] Everything clicked for MATT RYAN last year; he set career bests in accuracy (69.9 percent), passing yardage (4,944) and touchdowns (38). He threw multiple TD passes 12 times, and his decision-making showed marked improvement. Ryan threw a career-low seven interceptions, down from 16 the previous year, which was one of the main reasons why Atlanta tied with New England for the fewest team turnovers (11)
MATT RYAN
if Ryan is hurt. Given the 36-year-old’s propensity for throwing pick-sixes, however, owners could consider streaming opposing defenses should Schaub see extended duty. JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] For the second straight season, DEVONTA FREEMAN rushed for 1,000-plus
[THIRD] BRIAN HILL left Wyoming as the school’s all-time leader in rushing yardage and touchdowns. He’s a bigger back (6-foot-1, 219 pounds) with decent athleticism, but he was poor in pass protection and wasn’t a major receiving threat. While his chances figure to be limited in ‘17, Hill may be worth targeting in dynasty formats considering Freeman’s contract uncertainty.
Photo: Mike Jula at Fostoff Fotos
Easily the biggest offseason changes came on the coaching side. Kyle Shanahan parlayed the offense’s explosive output, led by NFL MVP Matt Ryan, into a head coaching job with San Francisco. On defense, Richard Smith was fired shortly after the Super Bowl collapse. Smith was replaced by Marquand Manuel, and Alabama’s Steve Sarkisian was tabbed to replace Shanahan. Player-wise, Desmond Trufant inked a five-year extension, Dontari Poe signed a free-agent deal and pass-rusher Takk McKinley was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. With no significant departures, Atlanta opens their new home, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with a legitimate chance of repeating as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
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@BEARS PACKERS @LIONS BILLS BYE DOLPHINS
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SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01
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TERRON WARD averaged 4.9 yards per carry in 2016 but only toted the rock 31 times, mostly when the game’s outcome wasn’t in doubt.
JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Despite battling various leg and foot ailments that sidelined him for two games and limited him in several others, JULIO JONES still finished second in the league with 1,409 yards on 83 receptions—that included the sixth 300yard receiving game in NFL history. For some reason, touchdowns continue to be elusive for the physically imposing Jones, who only scored six in 2016 and has just 20 over the last three seasons combined. That rates as the only “complaint,” however, as Jones remains a top-five fantasy wideout and a surefire first-round selection. [STARTER] MOHAMMED SANU filled the No.
2 receiver role during his first year with Atlanta but, like his stint opposite A.J. Green in Cincinnati, Sanu’s targets paled in comparison to the No. 1 wideout. So even though he set a career best in receptions, his 59-653-4 line was very similar to his usual production with the Bengals. Sanu is an excellent blocker with sure hands, but those traits don’t translate to fantasy scoring. As such, Sanu is more of a WR5 for fantasy purposes.
[THIRD] Released after two uninspired seasons with Cleveland, TAYLOR GABRIEL managed
to tie Jones for the team lead in touchdown receptions with six despite catching just 35 balls. Gabriel also added a rushing touchdown as the Falcons found ways to use his blazing speed to exploit opposing defenses. While he was a feelgood story last year, Gabriel’s 165-pound frame all but ensures he’ll continue to function in a specialized role that’s unlikely to produce reliable fantasy numbers.
[FOURTH] JUSTIN HARDY scored his first four NFL touchdowns in 2016, but he was passed by Gabriel on the depth chart and ended up matching the reception total from his rookie season (21) even though he played nine more games. Hardy is sure-handed in the slot, but he lacks breakaway
WR RB RB QB TE WR WR
JULIO JONES DEVONTA FREEMAN TEVIN COLEMAN MATT RYAN AUSTIN HOOPER TAYLOR GABRIEL MOHAMAD SANU
@PATRIOTS @JETS @PANTHERS COWBOYS @SEAHAWKS BUCCANEERS
SUN. OCT 22 SUN. OCT 29 SUN. NOV 05 SUN. NOV 12 MON. NOV 20 SUN. NOV 26
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[FIFTH] Veteran ANDRE ROBERTS, DEVIN FULLER and NICK WILLIAMS will vie for a spot
at the bottom of the depth chart. Roberts and Fuller are potential kick return options, which would give them the upper hand in the battle, but no one in the trio will do enough offensively to be fantasy factors. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] AUSTIN HOOPER had his moments
during his rookie campaign, with three touchdown receptions and an average of 14.3 yards per catch, but the Stanford product was stuck in a time share and managed only 19 receptions in 14 games. Hooper was held under 10 receiving yards in 10 outings, yet he is poised to assume a much larger role in the offense since last year’s starter, Jacob Tamme, left via free agency. Hooper is a decent late-round gamble for owners as a TE2 with upside. [BACKUP] Towering LEVINE TOILOLO is the
primary blocking tight end but, as his 13 receptions in 16 games last year indicate, he is not someone that fantasy owners need to monitor. Fifth-rounder ERIC SAUBERT is lean for the position (6-foot-5, 253 pounds) but possesses decent athleticism and large hands. He’ll be making the jump from FCS-level Drake, however, and won’t be fantasy-relevant for a while, if ever.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] After slumping a little in 2015, MATT BRYANT tied for fourth in the NFL with 34 successful field goals last year. He connected on 91.7 percent of his FGAs, and he missed only one of 57 extra-point attempts, finishing with a careerhigh and league-best 158 points. Bryant turned 42 this spring, but he hasn’t lost any leg strength and kicks for one of the NFL’s best offenses. Bryant should have weekly fantasy value in 2017.
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 6 8 52 73 168
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speed and has trouble creating separation. While Hardy is decent as depth for an NFL receiving corps, he’s not going to move the needle in anything but the deepest fantasy formats.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 4 4 18 5 23 63 70
VIKINGS SAINTS @BUCCANEERS @SAINTS PANTHERS
[RETURNERS] ANDRE ROBERTS returned two punts for touchdowns last year with Detroit, where he also served as the team’s primary kickoff man. He might be the favorite to handle both roles in Atlanta, though JUSTIN HARDY, TAYLOR GABRIEL and DEVIN FULLER could also be factors.
JJ DEFENSE On the whole, the Falcons’ defense struggled in 2016. They ranked 27th in points allowed (25.4 per game) and 25th in yards surrendered (371.2) while finishing 16th in turnovers forced with 22. With Quinn calling the shots, however, the defense surrendered only 18.8 points and 272.2 yards with nine takeaways over the final four games. The pass rush was led by Vic Beasley, who tallied an NFL-high 15.5 sacks, but overall the unit was tied for 16th with 34 sacks. On the plus side, the defense was opportunistic, tying for the NFL lead with five defensive scores. Coupled with late-season improvement, Atlanta’s defense could be worth monitoring as a quality streaming option sometime in 2017. JJ EXTRA POINTS
[UNDERVALUED] AUSTIN HOOPER split snaps with Jacob Tamme, among others, at tight end last year, and none of them posted huge numbers. Rewind a year and Tamme caught 59 passes with little competition for snaps. Hooper, the clear starter this year, has more athleticism and can create red-zone mismatches. It wouldn’t be shocking if he works his way into TE1 territory.
[OVERVALUED] Fantasy owners should temper expectations for Atlanta’s improved defense over the final four games, as the Saints were the only opponent during that time that ranked higher than 19th in total yardage. Plus, with Quinn ceding play-calling duties to Marquand Manuel, there could be some growing pains, making this a defense that is too risky to consider selecting on draft day.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 313 281 189 412 111 120 108
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 214 228 159 301 69 86 69
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $51 $45 $22 $30 $1 $1 $1
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BALTIMORE RAVENS Zach Greubel
I
t was a back-and-forth affair for the Ravens in 2016. Baltimore couldn’t have asked for a better start, winning its first three games. A four-game losing streak followed with two of those losses by a combined five points. A Week 8 bye rejuvenated the club, resulting in four wins in five games. With a trip to the postseason in sight, however, the Ravens squandered the opportunity, dropping three of their final four and finishing 8-8. It was the third time in four years Baltimore failed to make the playoffs—a bitter pill for a team that reached the postseason each of John Harbaugh’s first five seasons.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] JOHN HARBAUGH is entering
his 10th season with the Ravens. During his decade in charge, he has led Baltimore to six playoff appearances and just one losing record; although he’s just 31-33 (.484) since winning the Super Bowl in 2012. While Harbaugh is one of the more respected head coaches in the NFL, it’s a results-oriented business, and the 54-year-old needs to get things going in the right direction again following four mostly forgettable years that have upped the ante on 2017.
is cemented in mediocrity and best viewed as a low-end reserve.
[BACKUP] Like Flacco, RYAN MALLETT sports a cannon for an arm and has optimal size at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds. He’s 3-4 as a starter, but the fact he signed a one-year deal to return shows how limited the market for his services was. Given that Flacco has started all 16 games in eight of his nine seasons, Mallett should remain
Despite rumors he’d be dismissed, Marty Mornhinweg returns as offensive coordinator, a job he assumed in Week 6 last season, aiding Joe Flacco to a career-high 4,317 yards. Things are more stable defensively where Dean Pees enters his sixth season as coordinator. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] JOE FLACCO eclipsed 4,000 yards
for the first time in his career last season but still finished 18th in touchdown passes (20). Statistical mediocrity is par for the course with Flacco, who in the eight seasons he started all 16 games has averaged 3,731 yards, 21 touchdowns and 13 picks. Good size, good health and a strong arm do not necessarily an elite quarterback make. To Flacco’s credit, he tends to save his best for big moments. Unfortunately, in fantasy circles Flacco
on the sideline. And on the off chance Flacco is hurt, the journeyman still wouldn’t be worth the gamble for fantasy owners. JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] A fourth-round pick in 2016, KENNETH DIXON saw his role increase as his rookie campaign rolled on. Dixon appeared poised to ride that momentum into a starting gig in Year 2, but he was suspended for this season’s first four games for violating the NFL’s performance-
KENNETH DIXON
enhancing drug policy. It’s another red flag for a player that already had durability concerns and is operating in a crowded backfield. Dixon’s talent is evident, and he could return to claim the top job. That’s hardly a sure thing, however, so drafting Dixon as more than your fourth or fifth back represents unnecessary risk.
[BACKUP] Baltimore’s biggest offseason acquisition may well be DANNY WOODHEAD, if he
can stay healthy. Woodhead missed most of 2014 after breaking his fibula, and he’s coming off a torn ACL that limited him to two games last year. Woodhead has proven he can return from catastrophic injuries, and there should be plenty of opportunities with Dixon suspended and a middling receiving corps. Woodhead has RB2 upside in point-per-reception formats, but durability concerns suggest you should draft him later to minimize risk. [THIRD] Dixon’s suspension gives TERRANCE WEST and LORENZO TALIAFERRO added ap-
peal through the first quarter of the season with West, the team’s leading rusher in 2016, likely to be the primary beneficiary. Unfortunately, the pair may be relegated to complementary roles upon Dixon’s return. Taliaferro should be passed on, but West is a later-round option. He’ll open as an RB3/RB4 candidate and could retain value if he performs well.
Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore suffered several big losses on offense this offseason, including Steve Smith (retired), Dennis Pitta and Kamar Aiken. Free-agent acquisitions Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead will look to pick up some of the slack in the passing game. Meanwhile, an already solid defense received a few boosts. Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson came to town via free agency, while GM Ozzie Newsome used his first four draft picks on defense, headlined by first-rounder Marlon Humphrey. A run at a playoff berth and perhaps an AFC North title are in play for 2017, though overtaking the Steelers won’t be an easy task.
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@BENGALS BROWNS @JAGUARS STEELERS @RAIDERS BEARS
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SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
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JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] A groin injury cost JEREMY MACLIN four games last season and limited him in several others. That’s the easy answer for his disappointing numbers, but the reality is he was struggling to produce before the injury, putting up a 66-859-4 pace through eight weeks. The Ravens hope it was just a fluke, and that they’ll be getting the player that averaged 88 catches for 1,203 yards and nine scores over the two previous campaigns. At 29, Maclin should still be in his prime, but he’s ideally deployed as a No. 3 fantasy wideout.
[STARTER] After bottoming out with Minnesota in 2015, MIKE WALLACE bounced back with
his best output since 2011, catching 72 passes for 1,017 yards and four touchdowns. While he isn’t quite the explosive threat he was early in his career, the 31-year-old was Flacco’s favorite receiver, leading Baltimore’s wideouts with 117 targets. Given his big-play potential, Wallace could again pace the team in receiving, but remember that he faded late—he failed to top 65 yards receiving in a game or score over the final eight weeks. Draft him as a WR4.
[THIRD] While there’s nothing but unproven commodities after Maclin and Wallace, BRESHAD PERRIMAN could be a diamond in the rough. Af-
ter missing his entire rookie campaign with a torn ACL, the 2015 first-rounder notched a respectable 499 yards and three touchdowns last season—not bad considering he was the fourth option. Perriman will begin camp behind the two veterans, but there’s little doubt that he has the most untapped potential of any Ravens reciever. Consider stashing him with a late-round pick.
[FOURTH] When MICHAEL CAMPANARO entered the NFL, scouting reports noted his trouble staying healthy. Spot on. Campanaro’s career has been plagued by injuries, and it’s hard to hold out much hope for someone that’s only appeared in 11 games over three seasons. His burst and shiftiness makes the undersized wideout a good fit for the slot. Unfortunately, history says he can’t stay on the field.
[FIFTH] CHRIS MOORE’s game is to get vertical and hope his suspect hands don’t betray him.
RB WR RB WR WR QB
DANNY WOODHEAD MIKE WALLACE KENNETH DIXON BRESHAD PERRIMAN JEREMY MACLIN JOE FLACCO
@VIKINGS DOLPHINS @TITANS BYE @PACKERS TEXANS
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LIONS @STEELERS @BROWNS COLTS BENGALS
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 SAT. DEC 23 SUN. DEC 31
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Other than occasional splash plays, Moore’s true worth for 2017 may lie in the return game. He’ll be joined by KEENAN REYNOLDS, the former Navy QB that spent last year transitioning to receiver, 6-foot-5, 228-pound CHRIS MATTHEWS, who had 109 receiving yards in Super Bowl XLIX, and a pair of 2015 mid-round picks (VINCE MAYLE and KENNY BELL) looking for a second chance with a new team. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] With Dennis Pitta gone following another dislocated hip, BENJAMIN WATSON
steps in as the likely starter. Watson is coming off a serious injury of his own, having missed all of last season after tearing his Achilles’ in August. He’s expected to be ready for Week 1, and the team hopes he’ll be the same player that posted a 74-825-6 line with the Saints in 2015. That’s a lot to ask of someone entering their age-37 season, however, and Watson carries plenty of risk, even as a late-round backup. [BACKUP] Baltimore could really use MAXX WILLIAMS or CROCKETT GILLMORE , two
recent high-round picks that have been dogged by injuries in their NFL careers, to stay healthy and start paying dividends based on their potential. Williams was considered the best tight end in the 2015 class due to his speed and ball skills; Gillmore, meanwhile, has the athleticism and power to thrive underneath. Keep an eye on them both. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] You won’t find a more consistent kicker than JUSTIN TUCKER. He went 38-for39 on FGAs in 2016 (97.4 percent)—easily the highest success rate in the league—made all 27 of his extra points and finished second in scoring with 141 points. Even more impressive, Tucker went 10 of 10 on field goals from 50 yards or more. Tucker should be the first or second kicker selected in 2017.
CAMPANARO looks like the frontrunner for punt returns (provided he can stay healthy) with LARDARIUS WEBB and KEENAN REYNOLDS among the club’s other internal possibilities.
JJ DEFENSE Baltimore’s defense has been its calling card since the days of Ray Lewis. A defensive hiccup in 2015 saw the Ravens yield 401 points—the most points surrendered in one season by the Ravens since they gave up 441 back in 1996. They turned things around in a big way last year, finishing in the top 10 in yards (322.1; seventh) and points allowed per game (20.1; ninth). Their pass rush underwhelmed (31 sacks; tied-24th), but the Ravens proved an opportunistic bunch with their 28 takeaways good for fourth in the NFL. Free-agent signings of Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson and the addition of first-round pick Marlon Humphrey will only improve a dangerous secondary. Baltimore’s defense deserves fantasy consideration as a borderline top-10 group. JJ EXTRA POINTS
[UNDERVALUED] BRESHAD PERRIMAN finished 13th among qualified receivers last season with his 15.1 yards per catch. Although Maclin’s signing will depress Perriman’s value in fantasy circles, the third-year pro is now fully recovered from his 2015 injury and has already developed a rapport with Flacco. Remember, Baltimore invested a first-round pick on Perriman; he isn’t a terrible late-round gamble.
[OVERVALUED] With so many question marks in the passing game, it’s easy to fall in love with DANNY WOODHEAD. After all, he’s a tremendous receiver out of the backfield—he caught 156 passes in his last two healthy seasons—and an effective change-of-pace runner. Woodhead is also 32 and coming off his second major injury in three years. Don’t overpay.
[RETURNERS] CHRIS MOORE has the potential to be a dangerous kick returner and seems to be the favorite after taking over from Devin Hester, who was released last December. MICHAEL
POSITION RANK (p.31) 29 37 39 54 65 23
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 61 105 108 122 129
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 146 177 123 141 115 276
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 102 118 91 93 71 203
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $6 $5 $2 $2 $1 $2
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BUFFALO BILLS Doug Orth
B
uffalo had the look of a team ready to end the league’s longest playoff drought (1999) after stunning Arizona in Week 3 and handing New England its first home shutout since 1993 en route to a 4-2 start. However, the decision to push LeSean McCoy through a hamstring injury set the wheels in motion for a three-game losing streak. For an offense already lacking in playmakers—Sammy Watkins missed over two months—and a defense which never quite met expectations under head coach Rex Ryan, it was too much to overcome. The Bills lost four of their last five to fall out of playoff contention, and Ryan was shown the door before the finale. Turnover in Buffalo didn’t stop there. GM Doug Whaley, who was scorned for his handling of Tyrod Taylor’s late-season “benching,” saw his authority usurped, first with the hiring of Sean McDermott—over his preferred candidate Anthony Lynn— and later with Taylor’s contract restructuring. Unsurprisingly, Whaley was dismissed a day after the NFL Draft and replaced by Brandon Beane. The Bills were able to fill some of the holes created by free agency (Stephon Gilmore, Robert Woods and Mike Gillislee all departed) in the draft, but Buffalo will likely be hard-pressed to top last year’s 7-9 record.
[HEAD COACH] After interviewing for a number of head coaching jobs in recent years, SEAN MCDERMOTT finally landed one on Jan. 11. He
spent his last six seasons as Carolina’s defensive coordinator and the two before that in the same position for Philadelphia. Although the Panthers took a step back as a whole in 2016, McDermott oversaw a top-10 unit in each of the previous three seasons. His next task is returning the Bills to the postseason.
and he should remain in that conversation as Dennison has promised to feature that mobility in his offense. Still, Taylor is a better fit as a solid fantasy reserve.
[BACKUPS] Perhaps in part because the Bills can get out of Taylor’s contract after the season, Buffalo may have identified its 2018 starter when it selected NATHAN PETERMAN in the
Rick Dennison served as Taylor’s quarterbacks coach with Baltimore in 2014 and will call the shots on offense after holding the same job in Denver the past two seasons. Leslie Frazier will scrap Ryan’s 3-4 defense for the 4-3 as he installs his Cover 2-based scheme. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] There may not be a more underap-
preciated quarterback in the league right now than TYROD TAYLOR, who finds his long-term job security in question despite an impressive 37:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go with 10 rushing scores in two years as Buffalo’s starter. He has flirted with QB1 numbers as a Bill thanks largely to his ability to run (back-toback seasons with better than 550 yards rushing),
fifth round. The Pittsburgh product has drawn comparisons to Kirk Cousins and was one of the most pro-ready prospects available in the draft. CARDALE JONES has the most natural talent of any signal-caller on the roster, but he has done little to this point to give the new regime much faith he is ready to be the primary backup.
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] LESEAN MCCOY may have been a
disappointment in his first season with the Bills, but few were better in 2016. Although he missed one game and mostly struggled through three others while playing with a pulled hamstring, “Shady” finished sixth in the league in rushing with 1,267 yards and topped 50 catches for the fourth time in his career. McCoy is still one of the most elusive runners in the game and should be expected to assume a similar workload this season, but he’s an RB1 who carries some risk entering his age-29 season.
[BACKUP] Gillislee proved to be invaluable spelling McCoy and as a goal-line runner last season. Following his departure to New England, both of those tasks figure to fall onto the shoulders of JONATHAN WILLIAMS. Although the second-year back managed only 27 carries as a rookie and has a bit of an injury history, the Bills didn’t add any real competition this spring. As a talented player behind an aging back on a run-heavy team, the case can be made Williams should be considered one of the more valuable handcuffs in fantasy.
[THIRD] JOE BANYARD has been a preseason darling for some time, but Buffalo will mark his fourth team in five years since entering the league
Photo: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
LESEAN MCCOY
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JETS @PANTHERS BRONCOS @FALCONS @BENGALS BYE
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SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08
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in 2012. The 223-pounder spent the bulk of last season on Jacksonville’s practice squad and is well off the fantasy radar. Another option is veteran bulldozer MIKE TOLBERT, a capable inside runner and pass catcher, though he’s 31 and coming off a quiet year in Carolina. With a very low ceiling, Tolbert is of no interest, either. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Since playing 16 games as a rookie after being considered the most coveted prospect in the famed receiver class of 2014, SAMMY WATKINS has been limited to 21 of a possible 32 contests due to foot injuries. The team declined his fifth-year option this spring due largely to his lack of availability, setting the former fourth overall selection up for a potential huge payday in free agency next year if he can stay healthy. Watkins’ durability woes will keep his price down a bit on draft day, but he boasts WR1 upside anytime he’s on the field. [STARTER] Seeking a replacement for Robert
Woods this year and perhaps Watkins the next, the Bills traded up to select ZAY JONES, who left East Carolina as the FBS single-season (158) and career (399) record holder in receptions. While he benefited greatly from the Pirates’ spread offense, he wasn’t merely a product of the system. Jones has some of the surest hands of any draft prospect in recent memory and should become fast friends with Taylor on third downs as a result. He can be considered a later-round option with some upside.
[THIRD] A bit of a breakout performer for
Carolina during the Panthers’ 2015 Super Bowl season, COREY BROWN followed McDermott to Buffalo on a one-year deal early in free agency. The fourth-year veteran’s familiarity with the new head coach won’t hurt his chances to secure third-receiver duties ahead of a lackluster group of challengers, and he may be needed in a larger role if Watkins continues to struggle with injuries. In all but the deepest fantasy leagues, however, Brown should left on the waiver wire.
[FOURTH] ANDRE HOLMES appeared to be on the rise after collecting 47 receptions in 2014 with Oakland, but back-to-back 14-catch seasons did little to drum up interest on the free-agent
RB WR QB WR TE
LESEAN MCCOY SAMMY WATKINS TYROD TAYLOR ZAY JONES CHARLES CLAY
BUCCANEERS RAIDERS @JETS SAINTS @CHARGERS @CHIEFS
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PATRIOTS COLTS DOLPHINS @PATRIOTS @DOLPHINS
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market. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, the former undrafted free agent out of Hillsdale College has proven to be a weapon in the red zone but little else. Stay away. [FIFTH] A once-hyped receiver when his career began in 2009, BRANDON TATE has instead
become one of the league’s better returners. He’ll hit the occasional big play on offense, but he has just 41 catches over the last six seasons combined. Other possibilities include WALTER POWELL (14-142-0 last year) and JEREMY BUTLER (31363-0 with the Ravens in ‘15). This trio can be ignored in all leagues. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] CHARLES CLAY somewhat
salvaged a mostly disappointing season by compiling 21 catches for 229 yards and all four of his touchdowns in December. He has tallied 108 receptions in two years as a Bill, but his regular appearances on the injury report due to a chronic knee condition make betting on him going forward a risky proposition. With very little touchdown upside in a run-heavy offense, Clay is no better than a low-end TE2.
[BACKUP] Perhaps more well-known for being one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets at Florida State or golf legend Jack Nicklaus’ grandson, NICK O’LEARY graded out as one of the league’s best run blockers at tight end last season. With 10 total catches over his first 20 career games, however, he is not a fantasy option.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] After dealing with four seasons’ worth
of diminishing returns from Dan Carpenter, the Bills ponied up nearly $9 million over three years to land STEVEN HAUSCHKA in free agency. Although he has taken a step back recently—10 missed PATs over the last two years—Hauschka’s career 87.2-percent field-goal accuracy is thirdbest in league history. While he isn’t a top-five fantasy kicker anymore, Hauschka could still be a back-end starter.
per punt ranked seventh and fifth, respectively, in the NFL last year. He is the heavy favorite to keep both gigs this season. JJJDEFENSE Lorenzo Alexander came out of nowhere to rank third in the league with 12.5 sacks, but he’s one of several square pegs Frazier will be trying to fit into round holes. The front seven was ravaged by injuries in 2016 as first-rounder Shaq Lawson missed six games and secondrounder Reggie Ragland didn’t play at all. Marcell Dareus was also limited to eight games due to injury and suspension. It all added up to a defense that finished 16th in points allowed (23.6 per game), eighth in sacks (39) and 23rd in takeaways (18). While full seasons from Lawson, Ragland and Dareus could solve some problems, questions at linebacker and a lack of quality cornerback depth make this defense a longshot to be fantasy-viable in 2017. JJJEXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] With Watkins’ injury history and the team concerned about Clay’s health, ZAY JONES may have a clearer path to being his team’s top passing-game weapon than any other rookie receiver. With no one behind him capable of stealing his job, Jones, a high-volume target in college, should be a very capable part-time fantasy starter with the potential for more.
[OVERVALUED] Of the 21 backs to top 1,600 scrimmage yards in their age-28 season, only six did so again the following year. LESEAN MCCOY has missed five games over the last two years with hamstring issues and running backs tend not to age well. Considering all the risks, McCoy may be the most likely first-round fantasy pick to bust this year.
[RETURNERS] BRANDON TATE hasn’t run a kick or a punt back for a touchdown since 2011, but his 22.8 yards per kick return and 11.6 yards
POSITION RANK (p.31) 6 18 16 53 19
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 9 45 131
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 268 222 334 142 123
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 222 150 265 88 71
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $40 $22 $6 $2 $1
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CAROLINA PANTHERS Matt Wilson
F
avored to four-peat as NFC South champions and chase the Lombardi Trophy that eluded them in Super Bowl 50, the Panthers succumbed to a massive Super Bowl hangover. Carolina never escaped the division basement after a devastating 1-5 start, finishing a dismal 6-10. A usually dominant defense tumbled from sixth to 21st overall mainly due to growing pains in a young secondary that badly missed Josh Norman. Meanwhile, injuries plagued an offense that dropped from first in scoring to 15th. Cam Newton, battered repeatedly behind a depleted line and hampered by a sore throwing shoulder, regressed noticeably, rarely flashing his 2015 MVP form.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] Entering his seventh season, RON RIVERA deserves a mulligan for a disap-
pointing 2016 campaign that resulted in Carolina missing the playoffs for the first time in four years. “Riverboat Ron” wasn’t responsible for the Josh Norman fiasco, the lack of offensive line depth and all the injuries. It goes without saying, however, that Rivera needs to lead his team back into postseason contention after Gettleman shelled out big bucks to upgrade the roster.
Fifth-year offensive coordinator Mike Shula has tweaked his Newton-centric system to feature more formations along with short, highpercentage passes and rollouts to reduce the number of hits Newton takes. New defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will keep Sean McDermott’s attacking 4-3 scheme in place.
production uptick across the board seems likely— assuming Newton’s surgically repaired shoulder heals properly. Draft Newton as a low-end QB1.
[BACKUP] Unlike Newton, DEREK ANDERSON is strictly a pocket passer, but the 13th-year
pro has proven he can keep the offense afloat when the Panthers need his services. Completing an efficient 67.9 percent of his throws, Anderson compiled 453 passing yards and two touchdowns last year but was careless with the football—his five picks were his first since joining Carolina in 2011. While the tweaked passing attack plays
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] CAM NEWTON, frequently under
siege, banged up and lacking weapons, slumped last season. His passing numbers declined from 3,837-35-10 to 3,509-19-14, and he compiled career lows of 90 carries for 359 yards, though he still notched five rushing scores. Rivera wants the 28-year-old to run less and improve his accuracy. Can the big-armed Newton do it? Historically, his rushing numbers have compensated for mediocre passing statistics, so there’s risk. With a reworked line and new weapons, however, a
to Anderson’s strengths, he’d still offer minimal fantasy appeal as a fill-in starter. JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] Eighth overall selection CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY injects some desperately needed big-play firepower into the backfield.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY
The super-elusive McCaffrey (5-foot-11, 202 pounds) has 4.48 jets, and the do-it-all runner was compared to Hall of Famer Curtis Martin by Gettleman. Since McCaffrey is the team’s best receiving back and excels at blitz pickup, he’ll see heavy passing-down usage. Carolina still plans to use a committee backfield, however, so the Stanford product won’t dominate the touches. Consider the rookie an RB2 with extra value in point-per-reception leagues.
[BACKUP] Veteran JONATHAN STEWART isn’t
going anywhere. He’ll share the early-down and short-yardage rushing duties. Despite averaging just 3.8 YPC last season, Stewart rushed for 824 yards, which was his second-highest total since 2009, and nine scores. Stewart, who has averaged just 17 catches per season during his career, clearly won’t cut into McCaffrey’s passing-down work. The durability of the 30-year-old Stewart also remains a question mark as he has missed at least three games in each of the last five seasons. He’s a middling No. 3 fantasy back with concerns.
[THIRD] FOZZY WHITTAKER, a jack-of-alltrades, compiled 491 yards on 82 touches, which were both career highs, in his typically fantasy irrelevant backup role last year. Early-down thumper CAMERON ARTIS-PAYNE was more miss than hit as a low-end streaming option while starting three games in place of the injured Stewart, amassing 144 yards on 36 carries and scoring twice. Artis-Payne doesn’t play special
Photo: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Last year’s embarrassing collapse sent typically frugal GM Dave Gettleman a message: maintaining a championship contender costs money. Armed with nearly $50 million in cap space, Gettleman went on a rare spending spree. His laundry list of re-signings included Kawann Short and Mario Addison. Free-agent prizes Mike Adams, Captain Munnerlyn and Matt Kalil all filled critical needs. In the draft, Gettleman bolstered a plodding offense with playmakers Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, while Taylor Moton should help Kalil anchor a revamped offensive line. Despite Carolina’s struggles last season, six of their losses were by three points or less, so this improved team looks primed for a huge rebound.
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@49ERS BILLS SAINTS @PATRIOTS @LIONS EAGLES
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SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 12
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teams, which is why he’s only active when Stewart doesn’t suit up. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] KELVIN BENJAMIN topped Caro-
lina with seven scoring grabs and finished with 63 receptions for 941 yards. Both figures ranked second on the team, but more had been expected in his comeback season after ACL surgery cost him all of 2015. Despite a strong start (29-394-4 in his first six games), the 6-foot-5, 245-pound target never looked fully recovered and faded down the stretch. The Panthers’ best wideout and second option in the passing attack should benefit from a healthy offseason. If Benjamin is in shape and has a drama-free preseason, he’s a WR3 with upside. Watch him closely.
@BEARS @BUCCANEERS FALCONS DOLPHINS BYE @JETS
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won’t ascend to fantasy relevance. Last season he caught a personal-best 23 balls for 341 yards and two touchdowns for the Buccaneers. In four NFL seasons, Shepard has compiled just 30 catches and three scoring grabs. [FIFTH] There’s another CHARLES JOHNSON
on the roster. This Johnson, not the one who plays defensive end, is Gettleman’s newest free-agent reclamation project. The big wideout enjoyed a promising 2014 season (31-475-2) with the Vikings, but he caught just 29 passes as a rarely used backup during the last two years. Special-teamer BRENTON BERSIN has amassed a mere 24 receptions in three seasons. Don’t expect either player to have any fantasy usefulness. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] Slowly developing DEVIN FUNCHESS, Carolina’s second-round selection in 2015,
[STARTER] GREG OLSEN led the Panthers in
[THIRD] Rookie second-rounder CURTIS SAMUEL will use his insane 4.31 speed to energize
[BACKUP] Although ED DICKSON has shown
could be facing a make-or-break season. Funchess regressed in his sophomore campaign, compiling a disappointing 23 catches for 371 yards and four touchdowns. He’s built like Benjamin, but “Funch” continues to struggle with route running and gaining separation. A perceived lack of adequate speed was the biggest draft-day knock on Funchess, which is why fantasy owners should be pessimistic about his prospects for a third-year breakout. Consider Funchess a marginal lateround flier.
the offense in a designated “offensive weapon” role. While Samuel will operate primarily as a slot wideout, the versatile replacement for the departed Ted Ginn is also expected to see action as a runner. Listed at 5-foot-11, 196 pounds, Samuel wasn’t some little-used gadget guy at Ohio State. As the featured H-back, he amassed 74-865-7 via the air and 97-771-8 on the ground during his final season. Versatility and explosiveness make Samuel a very intriguing No. 5 fantasy receiver.
[FOURTH] Free-agent addition RUSSELL SHEPARD, a career special-teamer, could
contribute more than expected since there’s little proven talent behind Benjamin, but Shepard
RB TE QB WR RB WR
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY GREG OLSEN CAM NEWTON KELVIN BENJAMIN JONATHAN STEWART CURTIS SAMUEL
catches (80) and receiving yardage (1,073) for the fourth straight season in 2016 and also became the first tight end in NFL history to rack up three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. Olsen’s dip in scoring—he found the end zone just three times after notching at least five TDs each season since 2008—had more to do with Newton’s struggles than Benjamin’s return. Although the durable Olsen turned 32 in March, he should have at least a couple more good seasons left in the tank. Newton’s favorite target remains a safe top-five selection at the position.
himself to be a competent receiver, the Panthers rarely pull him away from blocking duties. Dickson scored 10 receptions for 134 yards and one touchdown last season, which marks the third straight year that he has caught 17 passes or fewer. Since Olsen hasn’t missed a start since 2011, Dickson almost never sees expanded opportunities. He holds zero fantasy appeal.
nected on only 78.9 percent of his field goal attempts (30 of 38), which was Gano’s worst success rate as a Panther. He also finished just 16th in scoring with 121 points. Gano, who has misfired on 14 field goal attempts in the last two years, will
POSITION RANK (p.31) 19 2 7 21 38 80
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 17 68 69 75 150
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face a legit challenge from rookie seventh-round selection HARRISON BUTKER. The Gano/ Butker kicking derby winner is a sneaky starting option for what should be an improved offense.
[RETURNERS] Carolina has to replace primary return man Ted Ginn. CURTIS SAMUEL and CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY both returned punts
and kickoffs with notable success in college, so they’re the obvious frontrunners for both jobs. FOZZY WHITTAKER, JOE WEBB and BRENTON BERSIN offer some depth as well.
JJ DEFENSE Problems with a leaky secondary impacted what had been a lethal Super Bowl defense. The Panthers dropped from sixth to 26th in points allowed (25.1 per game), plummeted from 11th to 29th versus the pass and slipped from first to seventh in takeaways (27). The pass rush, however, remained potent with Carolina actually improving from sixth to second in sacks (47). The additions of Mike James and Captain Munnerlyn will boost a Kurt Coleman and James Bradberry-led secondary that flashed some modest late-season improvement. Julius Peppers is 37, but he’s still an upgrade over Kony Ealy (traded). Thanks to the reinforcements, the Panthers look set to return to top-10 fantasy status. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Is it fair to compare CURTIS SAMUEL to Tyreek Hill? Yes. Carolina didn’t spend a second-round pick on Samuel to only use him a few times per game. With lots of slowness and uncertainty in the Panthers’ receiver corps, Samuel should see plenty of action in a Hill-like role and make a Hill-like impact.
[OVERVALUED] There are concerns about KELVIN BENJAMIN’s attitude because of question-
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] Last season GRAHAM GANO con-
@SAINTS VIKINGS PACKERS BUCCANEERS @FALCONS
able conditioning, uninspired play, a sideline temper tantrum and a benching last season. Perhaps he was frustrated by his slow recovery from ACL surgery. Needing a fresh start, Benjamin showed up overweight at spring workouts. If he’s still making preseason waves, Benjamin shapes up as a potentially risky option.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 184 219 374 207 124 95
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 130 138 292 138 117 61
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $22 $26 $20 $15 $2
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CHICAGO BEARS Herija C. Green
W
hatever good will the coach/GM pairing of John Fox and Ryan Pace cultivated during an unexpectedly competitive 2015 was flushed away last season. The Bears were bad from the start, opening 0-3 and dropping six of their first seven prior to upending the Vikings before the bye. They’d win just once the rest of the year, however, finishing a dismal 3-13 while employing three equally ineffective quarterbacks: Jay Cutler (1-4), Brian Hoyer (1-4) and Matt Barkley (1-5). While there were a few bright spots, most notably the play of then-rookie Jordan Howard, the Bears still found themselves in the NFC North cellar for a third consecutive campaign.
One postseason appearance in 10 years constitutes desperate times in Chicago. Enter Mitchell Trubisky, No. 2 overall pick and physical manifestation of desperate measures. The Bears paid a king’s ransom to move up one spot and select Trubisky, and his ability to develop into a franchise quarterback will determine the fate of Pace—and perhaps Fox as well. In the short term, the team will go with Mike Glennon, who signed a lucrative contract before the draft. On the other side of the ledger, Alshon Jeffery’s Bears career is done. While Trubisky’s arrival could mean good things in the future, 2017 looks like it’ll be a very long season.
[HEAD COACH] After seeming to right the ship in 2015, JOHN FOX endured one of the worst
seasons in his 15 years as an NFL head coach. Injuries were partly to blame, but the team’s overall regression was disappointing regardless of the circumstances. Outside of a three-year run with Peyton Manning in Denver, Fox has now finished .500 or worse in seven of his last eight seasons. At 62 and with questions everywhere it’s fair to posit this could be Fox’s final year in charge of an NFL team.
[BACKUPS] While opinions of MITCHELL TRUBISKY’s potential vary, the consensus is
Chicago surrendered too much for him. Time will tell. Physically, Trubisky has what teams covet: accuracy, arm strength and mobility. He’s light on experience, however, with just 13 starts after two years behind Marquise Williams, who didn’t make a practice squad last year. The plan is for Trubisky to sit behind Glennon for a year and
Dowell Loggains’ first year as offensive coordinator was unimpressive, but he didn’t have a lot to work with. His top priority now is getting Trubisky ready for 2018. Vic Fangio is back for his third season in charge of Chicago’s defense.
JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] It was a crazy rollercoaster ride for MIKE GLENNON, who inked a three-year deal to become the team’s starter, only to be undercut six weeks later by the selection of Trubisky. He’ll still pocket a hefty chunk of change and open 2017 as the starter, but the good news ends there. Glennon has accuracy issues that date back to NC State, and he wasn’t particularly impressive during his Tampa Bay tenure, going 5-13 as a starter. Whatever upside he might’ve possessed vanished when it became clear he wasn’t the team’s quarterback of the future.
learn. If Chicago is committed to that approach, veteran MARK SANCHEZ will be the backup. If not, Trubisky could see the field sooner than later. Either way, Trubisky’s value lies exclusively in dynasty leagues.
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] An unheralded fifth-round pick a year ago, JORDAN HOWARD took the NFL by
storm in 2016. The powerfully built back took over for an injured Jeremy Langford in Week 3 and never looked back, finishing second to Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliot in rushing yards with 1,313. He showed toughness, burst and was careful with the pigskin, putting the ball on the ground just twice. Howard struggled badly as a receiver, however, dropping seven passes against 29 receptions; it’s an area that needs improvement. While Howard rates as a midrange RB1, remember he entered the league with durability concerns.
[BACKUP] JEREMY LANGFORD came into last season as the anointed successor to Matt Forte. He exited it looking like the second coming of Michael Bush. Although a high-ankle sprain put Langford on the shelf, he did little during his three starts to suggest he belonged in the role. There’s simply no explosiveness to his game—just two of his 210 career rushes have gone for more than 20 yards. After averaging a measly five touches per game as Howard’s backup, Langford is strictly late-round handcuff material. [THIRD] Given TARIK COHEN’s complementary skill set, the undersized rookie out of North Carolina A&T could see more action most weeks than Langford. Cohen is a shifty playmaker with plus hands that’ll push to be Chicago’s third-
Photo: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
JORDAN HOWARD
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FALCONS @BUCCANEERS STEELERS @PACKERS VIKINGS @RAVENS
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down back, though his lack of size (5-foot-7, 179 pounds) ensures he’ll never see regular duty. Former fourth-rounder KA’DEEM CAREY has 574 total yards in three seasons and is no lock to stick. Neither player is worth drafting. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] With Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery departing in consecutive offseasons, undrafted CAMERON MEREDITH now sits as the Bears’ No. 1 receiver. He was a bit of a revelation last year, leading the team in receptions (66), receiving yards (888) and tying Zach Miller with four touchdowns through the air—all that despite being a healthy inactive the first two weeks. Meredith has the size/speed combination to excel at the NFL level, but he needs more consistency. At a position filled with question marks, Meredith is your best bet as a WR4. [STARTER] KEVIN WHITE has played exactly
four games since being selected seventh overall back in 2015. A litany of leg injuries have been the cause, resulting in multiple surgeries and putting tremendous pressure on White to get healthy and stay that way for a team that’s short on talent in the passing game. Scouts loved his size, speed and terrific hands coming out of West Virginia; the question is whether injuries have lessened him in any way. It’ll likely only cost a late-round pick to find out. At that point it’s worth rolling the dice on White’s upside.
[THIRD] Coming off a torn labrum that limited him to three games last season, MARKUS WHEATON will be looking to revitalize a career
that stagnated in the Steel City. He totaled 97 catches, 1,393 yards and seven touchdowns in 2014-15, which is respectable production, but there’s no Antonio Brown to draw coverage here, and Glennon is no Big Ben. At best you can stick Wheaton on your watch list.
[FOURTH] Sixth-year pro KENDALL WRIGHT
posted a 94-1,079-2 line in 2013. His role diminished after that, however, and his freelancing style didn’t mesh with the new regime in Tennessee last season. In Chicago it’s easy to envision any
RB WR QB QB WR WR TE
JORDAN HOWARD CAMERON MEREDITH MIKE GLENNON MITCH TRUBISKY KEVIN WHITE KENDALL WRIGHT ZACH MILLER
PANTHERS @SAINTS BYE PACKERS LIONS @EAGLES
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49ERS @BENGALS @LIONS BROWNS @VIKINGS
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number of roles, from situational afterthought to every-down player if those ahead of him succumb to injury or regression. Minus more clarity it’d be wrong to draft Wright.
converted better than 80 percent of his field goal attempts at Utah. No matter who emerges from this battle, steer clear.
credit for battling back from serious leg injuries, the veteran doesn’t look anything like the dynamic playmaker he was before tearing his patella. Entering his age-31 season, Cruz’s true value is to help mentor a group of unproven wideouts. If the Bears elect not to carry both Wright and Cruz, a spot could open up for undersized DANIEL BRAVERMAN, veteran RUEBEN RANDLE or incumbent returner DEONTE THOMPSON. Stay away from the lot.
second in the NFL in kick return yardage (804) last season. Rookie EDDIE JACKSON took two punts to the house for Alabama in 11 attempts his senior year before sustaining a season-ending broken leg.
[FIFTH] Although VICTOR CRUZ deserves
JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] When you think about ZACH MILLER’s talent and injury history, 2016 seemed like the proper mix: he played 10 games, caught 47 passes and then broke his foot and missed the rest of the year. He should be 100 percent come August following Lisfranc surgery, but odds are it won’t last. Still, Miller produces when healthy, and that alone makes him a decent backup tight end in the fantasy world.
[BACKUP] Stop me if you heard this one before: Chicago signs a free agent for a lot of money and then uses a high draft pick on someone that plays the same position. The free agent is DION SIMS, who became Miami’s starter last year and finished with a modest 26-256-4 line. The draft pick is second-rounder ADAM SHAHEEN, a mammoth of a man (6-foot-7, 278 pounds) with intriguing athleticism, though the converted basketball player from DII Ashland is facing a potentially steep learning curve.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] CONNOR BARTH took over for
Robbie Gould when the latter was released in the final cuts. Barth didn’t secure the job for the long haul, though, going 18-for-23 (78.3 percent) on FGAs and tallying just 85 points, which was 28th among kickers. He’ll need to fend off ANDY PHILLIPS, a 28-year-old undrafted rookie that
POSITION RANK (p.31) 8 45 26 35 62 74 20
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 14 98
[RETURNERS] In addition to his receiving duties, DEONTE THOMPSON also finished
JJ DEFENSE After a significant jump in Year 1 under Fox and Fangio, the Bears stagnated last season, finishing an identical 15th in total defense and dropping from 20th to 24th (24.9 points allowed per game) in scoring. They jumped 10 places in sacks despite registering just two more quarterback takedowns (37) than the previous year—Leonard Floyd chipped in with seven and looks like a player on the rise. Takeaways, however, were nonexistent as the Bears finished dead last with 11 forced turnovers. They sunk some money into upgrading the secondary, which should help, but Chicago needs significant improvement to even approach fantasy relevance in 2017. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Pittsburgh made no effort to re-sign MARKUS WHEATON, but that was more indicative of the players they had waiting in the wings rather than a lack of talent on Wheaton’s part. The Oregon State product is fast and can line up outside or in the slot, and he’s joining a team with no sure things at receiver.
[OVERVALUED] ZACH MILLER is a nice story. He entered the NFL as a sixth-round pick in 2009, played four games from 2011-14 and persevered to post 81 receptions, 925 yards and nine touchdowns over the past two years. Cool. He also turns 33 this season and is held together by duct tape. Miller’s ceiling is too low to offset the significant injury risk.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 237 161 239 104 121 102 121
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 205 105 175 74 89 68 76
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $36 $4 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
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CINCINNATI BENGALS Keith Hernandez
A
fter finishing 12-4 in ‘15, the Bengals regressed in a big way last year to go 6-9-1, finish third in the AFC North and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2010. The offense started behind the 8-ball in the offseason when Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones left in free agency. Add in the fact that offensive staples A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard all missed significant time with injuries and the Bengals never realistically had a shot at consistently performing at a high level. Their defense battled, but the die was cast, and the Bengals spent just one week above .500 for all of last season. While the expectation among many was that heads would roll after the season, they didn’t. In fact, Cincinnati was surprisingly quiet in the free-agent market with Kevin Minter the only signing of note against the loss of key players such as Rex Burkhead, Karlos Dansby, Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler—they also re-signed Brandon LaFell, Dre Kirkpatrick and Eric Winston. They saved their biggest acquisitions for the draft, selecting speedy wideout John Ross ninth overall and controversial Joe Mixon in Round 2. The Bengals will need their rookies to deliver and improved overall health to have any chance of unseating the Steelers atop the division.
[HEAD COACH] After signing one-year extensions annually the last four years, MARVIN LEWIS enters 2017 as a lame-duck coach, and his
future with the organization likely depends on how the team performs this season. The 58-yearold has been in charge since 2003, posting a 118103-3 mark over that span, though he’s perhaps best known for being the first coach in NFL history to lose seven postseason games without a win, including five straight from 2011-15.
[BACKUP] Cincinnati elected to hang onto AJ MCCARRON despite significant trade interest in
the 26-year-old. He had mixed results (six TDs, two picks) starting three games down the stretch for Cincy in ‘15 with Dalton injured but didn’t attempt a single pass last season. While the jury is still out on McCarron, he’d at least be worth monitoring if pressed into starting duty.
For at least one more season, the Bengals will have continuity on both sides of the ball. Paul Guenther enters his fourth year as defensive coordinator, while Ken Zampese will be hoping for better health (and results) running the offense after taking over for Hue Jackson in 2016.
[BACKUP] Like Hill, GIOVANI BERNARD had a disappointing campaign, one which ended after 10 games due to a torn ACL. Before the injury he was averaging a career-low 3.7 yards on 91 carries but was on pace for a career-high 62 receptions. The good news is that Bernard took part in OTAs just six months removed from his injury, but Cincy’s fortification of the position through the draft likely means fewer touches for Bernard in a crowded backfield. With a more unique skill set than Hill, Bernard is a steadier No. 4 fantasy back who carries additional value in point-perreception setups. [THIRD] Cincinnati invited controversy when it selected JOE MIXON 48th overall in this year’s
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] ANDY DALTON reached the 4,000-
yard mark for the second time in four seasons last year, but his 18 touchdown tosses were a career low. It’s tough to put too much of that on the Red Rifle, though, as he had to endure long stretches without both A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, which severely limited his red-zone options. He should have a better nucleus around him in ‘17, and it’s encouraging he limited his picks to single digits the last two years. Even with that, Dalton holds more appeal as a fantasy backup or matchup play.
his back is certainly against the wall with talented options behind him. There’s a lot of downside with Hill, who rates as an RB4/RB5.
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] In theory, JEREMY HILL remains the starter entering training camp, but he’ll face stiff competition for the lead job after underperforming each of the last two years and averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. He doesn’t contribute much in the passing game, either (63 career receptions). Entering a contract year, it’s not inconceivable that Hill steps up to the plate, but
draft. Widely considered a first-round talent, the Oklahoma product dropped due to off-the-field baggage that resulted in multiple suspensions in college. As a player, however, Mixon has the size (6-foot-1, 228 pounds) to go through and the shiftiness and burst to go around. He lacks great vision and can wait too long for lanes to materialize, but he clearly has the three-down skills to leapfrog both Hill and Bernard early on. Despite currently sitting third on the depth chart, Mixon should be targeted as an RB2.
Photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
A.J. GREEN
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RAVENS TEXANS @PACKERS @BROWNS BILLS BYE
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JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] AJ GREEN was on pace for a career year with 66 catches (100 targets) for 964 yards and four touchdowns through 10 games before a balky hamstring sidelined him for the final six contests. The addition of two high-profile rookies to Cincy’s offense should help take some of the attention away from Dalton’s favorite target and allow him to top the 1,000-yard mark for the sixth time in seven years with relative ease. The six-time Pro Bowl selection is one of the more consistent top-tier pass catchers in the league and should again return solid WR1 value.
[STARTER] Veteran BRANDON LAFELL proved
to be a successful free-agent signing, putting together the second-best season of his career. Still, while his 64-862-6 line is solid, he did most of his damage (and had his only 100-yard game) when both Green and Eifert were on the shelf. Barring more injuries, LaFell faces stiff competition for targets and is unlikely to match his ‘16 production. He could provide depth in deeper setups.
[THIRD] What’s not to like about a rookie
receiver that broke the NFL record with a 4.22 40-yard dash at the combine? There’s no doubt that performance pushed Washington alum JOHN ROSS (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) into the draft’s top-10, and he should immediately become Cincy’s slot receiver. Ross could quickly ascend to the second or third option with his game-changing speed down the seam as well. His injury history is a concern—two knee surgeries in ‘15 and a shoulder operation last year—as is his slight build against press coverage, but Ross’ upside may be appealing late in drafts.
[FOURTH] Selected 55th overall last year, TYLER BOYD had a solid rookie season as the third
wideout with 54 grabs on 81 targets for 603 yards and one score. He offers good versatility, able to line up outside or in the slot, and reliable hands, and he could slide into Ross’ or LaFell’s role with a strong showing in August. He’ll face stiff
WR RB TE RB QB RB WR WR WR
AJ GREEN JOE MIXON TYLER EIFERT GIOVANI BERNARD ANDY DALTON JEREMY HILL JOHN ROSS BRANDON LAFELL TYLER BOYD
@STEELERS COLTS @JAGUARS @TITANS @BRONCOS BROWNS
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both on draft day, but monitor the winner as a possible in-season addition.
[FIFTH] Big-bodied JOSH MALONE is the
second burner added in this year’s draft, and while the former Volunteer isn’t as refined as Ross, he has the jets to take the top off of coverage. He’ll likely see the field sparingly as a rookie. Second-year man CODY CORE caught 17 passes for 200 yards over the final six games last season and is another possibility. Neither player deserves fantasy consideration. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] If TYLER EIFERT could just stay healthy, he might be in contention as fantasy’s most valuable tight end. Unfortunately, the 26-year-old has never seen a full season and played in only 22 of 48 games over the last three years. To add injury to insult, he’s coming off back surgery and isn’t sure he’ll be ready for training camp. The upside is evident (13 TDs in 13 games in ‘15) as he’s an elite red-zone weapon. Eifert is a high-risk, high-reward TE1. If you select him, however, you better have a legitimate backup option at the ready. [BACKUP] Former third-round pick TYLER KROFT didn’t exactly take advantage of Eifert’s
absence and suffered a late-season injury of his own. With 21 catches in 30 career games it’s unclear what Kroft brings to the passing game. CJ UZOMAH outproduced Kroft (three times as many targets) in three fewer starts and makes a case to be Eifert’s true backup. Neither player would be an attractive fantasy backup, though, should Eifert get injured again. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] It’s usually not a good sign when you’ve kicked for five different teams in the last two years. Such is the career arc of RANDY BULLOCK, who went 5-for-6 on FGAs in three games to close out ‘16. He’ll compete with fifthrounder JAKE ELLIOT in training camp. Ignore
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 11 31 97 135 148 154
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competition, however, leaving Boyd as a likely watch-list candidate to begin the season.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 6 24 7 50 17 40 61 75 77
STEELERS BEARS @VIKINGS LIONS @RAVENS
[RETURNERS] Last year’s kick and punt returner ALEX ERICKSON —who averaged 27.9
yards per kickoff return and 7.0 per punt—will enter camp as the primary returner again, but rookies JOE MIXON and JOHN ROSS could push for jobs.
JJ DEFENSE Cincinnati fell from second to eighth in points per game (19.7) and also dropped from 42 total sacks in ‘15 to just 33 (tied for 19th in the league)—they were led by Geno Atkins (9.0) and Carlos Dunlap (8.0). The Bengals also regressed in takeaways from 28 to 20 (19th; tied) but were fourth in interceptions with three players that tied for the team lead with three picks apiece (Shawn Williams, George Iloka and Dre Kirkpatrick). Losing leading tackler Karlos Dansby (114 tackles) is a potential blow, but they did sign Kevin Minter. Cincinnati is a middling fantasy D that could be an in-season streaming option. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Red-zone woes aside, ANDY DALTON enjoyed a solid 2016: he posted his second-best completion percentage (64.7), yards per attempt (7.5) and passing yardage (4,206). The O-line remains a concern, but an improved ground game and better health for his receivers should take pressure off of Dalton. Don’t be shocked if he approaches career bests in 2017.
[OVERVALUED] Being a top-10 draft pick often comes with sky-high expectations. Despite blazing speed, JOHN ROSS has a worrisome injury history, questionable size (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) and a lack of route-running savvy. The former Huskie will need time to adjust on a team with plenty of playmakers, and Ross might make a more immediate impact on special teams.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 275 162 176 91 322 118 122 101 98
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 184 135 116 66 244 107 85 68 55
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $46 $11 $6 $1 $5 $2 $1 $1 $1
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CLEVELAND BROWNS Matt Wilson
D
awg Pound diehards have had very little to howl about since the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999. Cleveland has notched just two winning seasons (2002 and 2007) and has made the playoffs just once (‘02), which is why some Browns fans refer to FirstEnergy Stadium as a “Factory of Sadness.” It can’t get any sadder than an NFL- and franchise-worst 1-15 finish last season, but nobody expected this badly undermanned team to contend in Year 1 of the massive Hue Jackson/Sashi Brown rebuild. As expected, Cleveland finished near the bottom of the league in most of the major offensive and defensive statistical categories. There was nothing sad about the franchise’s best offseason in years, however. Spending big in free agency, Brown upgraded a Joe Thomasled offensive line by signing Kevin Zeitler and JC Tretter. Cleveland’s other pricey addition, Kenny Britt, will anchor the young receiving corps. Analytics-driven Cleveland’s impressive draft was loaded with explosive athletes from big-name schools. With no elite quarterback prospects available, Brown wisely selected Myles Garrett at No. 1 overall and landed Week 1 contributors Jabrill Peppers, David Njoku and Larry Ogunjobi. DeShone Kizer has franchise passer talent but needs seasoning. A still-dismal quarterback situation will keep the Browns buried in the AFC North basement, but there’s hope for the future.
[HEAD COACH] Although HUE JACKSON’s
first season at the helm was a predictably rough one, he continued to cultivate strong bonds of trust with his players. Gathered in the Browns locker room following a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Week 16, some were heard telling Jackson, “This one’s for you.” Jackson’s positive reputation played a huge role in the team landing some big-name free agents, too. The Cleveland front office has assured Jackson that he’s their guy for the long haul.
his game is likely, but Cleveland may want to see their other quarterbacking options in action, too. As a marginal starter on a short leash, Kessler has little-to-no fantasy appeal.
[BACKUPS] Unless second-rounder DESHONE KIZER exceeds all expectations with a Dak
Prescott imitation, Kizer won’t merit fantasy consideration in a starting role, and neither would
Since Jackson calls the plays, the Browns don’t have an offensive coordinator. Senior offensive assistant Al Saunders, Jackson’s OC with the Raiders, was hired to help with game planning. New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will switch Cleveland from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] CODY KESSLER’s biggest ad-
vantage over his two challengers is one year of experience with the playbook. Winless in all eight of his starts, the then-rookie threw for 1,380 yards and six scores versus just two picks. He flashed nice accuracy (65.6 percent completions) but poor pocket presence (sacked 21 times). The average-armed Kessler also struggled to drive the ball downfield. Some all-around improvement in
BROCK OSWEILER. Kizer is a big (6-foot-4, 233
pounds) talented athlete with a powerful arm and scrambling ability, but the Notre Dame product had limited experience and struggles with accuracy as well as some of the game’s mental aspects. Sixth-year pro Osweiler, a salary dump acquisition from Houston, passed for 2,957 yards
and 15 touchdowns last year but made too many mistakes and looked gun shy prior to a Week 15 benching. His future is uncertain. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Top returning rusher ISAIAH CROWELL, despite some notable week-to-week
inconsistency in his production, amassed career highs of 198 carries, 952 yards (15th in the NFL) and seven touchdowns last year—his 40 receptions for 319 yards were also personal bests. The tough-running Crowell will continue to benefit from extra passing-down work and the retooled line, but consistency and uneven workloads remain a worry since the Browns frequently play from behind. Don’t think of Crowell as anything more than a middling RB2.
[BACKUP] DUKE JOHNSON’s numbers dipped slightly during his sophomore campaign because of Crowell’s increased usage, particularly as a receiver. The shifty back still amassed 53 receptions (tied for sixth among RBs) for 514 yards and toted the rock 73 times for 358 yards and a touchdown. With no nose for the end zone (three total scores in two years) and complementary work as a ball carrier, Johnson’s fantasy value is heavily dependent on catches. He’s a solid No. 4 fantasy back in point-per-reception formats and Crowell’s handcuff.
Photo: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
ISAIAH CROWELL
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STEELERS @RAVENS @COLTS BENGALS JETS @TEXANS
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[THIRD] Seventh-rounder MATT DAYES operated as a high-volume three-down back during his four years at NC State. Although he lacks elite speed or power, Dayes is a tough jack-of-alltrades that could stick. Special-teamer GEORGE ATKINSON III carried seven times for 34 yards and a touchdown in Week 17 mop-up action. With Crowell and Johnson entrenched, neither Dayes nor Atkinson will have fantasy relevance barring injuries up the depth chart.
JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] Terrelle Pryor’s departure leaves COREY COLEMAN as the top returning wideout.
Coleman’s first seven receptions covered 173 yards (24.7 per catch); the ensuing 26 went for 240 (9.2). In between, Coleman missed six games with a broken hand that helped to derail his rookie campaign. Now healthy, the speedster should be incorporated more into the offense and receive a ton of targets, though Cleveland’s subpar trio of quarterbacks will likely undermine his value. Coleman is a risky low-end fantasy WR4 who can deliver mid-round upside. [STARTER] Cleveland desperately needs KENNY BRITT, the only proven talent in this receiver
corps, to get up to speed quickly. Britt topped the Rams in 2016 with 68 catches for 1,002 yards (both career bests) and five touchdowns while catching passes from the Case Keenum/Jared Goff tandem. Britt is a big target (6-foot-3, 223 pounds) and has more than enough speed to be an effective vertical threat. As the best wideout on a bad team, Britt should be a target monster, and the Browns’ passers aren’t any worse than the Rams’ duo. Consider Britt a relatively safe No. 4 fantasy wideout.
[THIRD] Although RICARDO LOUIS, a 2016 fourth-round pick, hauled in just 18 balls for 205 yards and disappointed in his three starts, the Browns remain intrigued with his talent cocktail of size, 4.43 speed and superb athleticism. Louis, however, still needs to improve his catching and route running. If Louis wins the No. 3 job, he’ll operate as a lid lifter but won’t be fantasy material. [FOURTH] RASHARD HIGGINS lacks big-play
speed, but he’s still expected to mount a serious
RB WR RB TE QB WR
ISAIAH CROWELL COREY COLEMAN DUKE JOHNSON DAVID NJOKU CODY KESSLER KENNY BRITT
TITANS VIKINGS BYE @LIONS JAGUARS @BENGALS
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[FIFTH] JAMES WRIGHT, who played for Jack-
son as a rookie with the Bengals two years ago, compiled 13 of his career 18 receptions last year. Possession guy JORDAN PAYTON, another 2016 fifth-round pick, played only 30 offensive snaps, amassing just one catch for three yards before sitting out the final month because of a four-game PED suspension. There’s no fantasy usefulness with this duo. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] The Browns thought enough of doit-all weapon DAVID NJOKU that they cut Gary Barnidge the day after they traded back into the first round to land the freakishly athletic rookie. The explosive Njoku topped all draft-eligible tight ends in yards after the catch by a notable margin during his final season with the Hurricanes. Although Njoku needs to improve his blocking, the 6-foot-4, 246-pounder has an intriguing ceiling: he’ll operate as a safety valve alongside a thin receiver corps on an offense that figures to be playing catch up a lot in 2017. Njoku is an interesting TE2.
[BACKUP] Size-speed specimen SETH DEVALVE, selected in the fourth round last year,
reeled in 10 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns in some mid-to-late season action that included two very forgettable starts. RANDALL TELFER, a 2015 sixth-rounder, caught just two balls for four yards. Both should see action in hard-to-predict backup roles, but neither will be worthy of fantasy consideration. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] In 14 games, CODY PARKEY nailed
20 of 25 field goal attempts (80 percent) and went 20-for-21 on PATs to amass 80 points. Parkey’s well-known accuracy funks prompted Cleveland to spend a seventh-round pick on ZANE GONZALEZ, who left Arizona State as the Division I record holder in points scored and field goals
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challenge for the slot gig. Higgins, picked one round later than Louis in the same draft, is the more polished of the two, though you wouldn’t know it from Higgins’ dismal six catches for 77 yards last year. His strengths are good hands and run-after-the-catch ability. Even if Higgins moves up the depth chart, he’ll lack fantasy value.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 13 40 43 21 31 52
@CHARGERS PACKERS RAVENS @BEARS @STEELERS
made. The Browns offense (31st in scoring) likely will struggle again, so the winner of this kicking competition lacks fantasy appeal. [RETURNERS] DUKE JOHNSON is expected
to continue as the main punt returner, despite averaging just 6.6 yards per return during his first season on the job. Last year’s kickoff returner by committee featured the like of GEORGE ATKINSON, RICARDO LOUIS and MARIO ALFORD, but rookie JABRILL PEPPERS looms large there. JJ DEFENSE Cleveland has switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 or vice versa three times in the last seven seasons, but at this point any change is arguably better than none at all for what was a terrible defense in 2016. The Browns finished 30th in points allowed (28.3 per game), tied for 30th in sacks (26) and, you guessed it, tied for 30th in takeaways (10 picks and three recovered fumbles). Rookie upgrades Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers and Larry Ogunjobi will provide a nice boost. The NFL’s third-leading tackler, Christian Kirksey, and Jamie Collins anchor a solid linebacker corps. Joe Haden has been trending down the last two years, however, due to nagging injuries. Work-in-progress Cleveland won’t have any fantasy usefulness. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Rookie tight ends are usually poor fantasy assets, but DAVID NJOKU is primed to be a rare exception. The Browns defense will allow a lot of points, so the offense will have to operate frequently in must-throw mode. Njoku figures to be peppered with targets in a young receiver corps with no proven talent aside from Kenny Britt.
[OVERVALUED] Running game aficionado Hue Jackson will pound the rock with ISAIAH CROWELL whenever possible. Fantasy owners, however, shouldn’t go overboard with their expectations. Crowell has never rushed for 1,000 yards. Last season his inconsistent week-to-week rushing yardage included four efforts with 100plus and seven games with less than 50. He’ll also lose touches when Cleveland is forced into heavy passing situations.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 206 171 114 113 129 144
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 175 110 78 65 94 104
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $28 $5 $2 $1 $1 $2
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DALLAS COWBOYS Herija C. Green
W
hen Tony Romo suffered a broken bone in his back during the preseason it felt like déjà vu for the Cowboys. Coming off a 4-12 season where they won just once without Romo at the helm, Dallas hoped fourth-round pick Dak Prescott could at least keep them afloat until Romo returned. Prescott did a lot more than that. Following a Week 1 loss, the Cowboys rattled off 11 wins in a row behind then-rookies Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and cruised to a 13-3 mark and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. While they fell to a red-hot Packers squad on a last-second field goal, the season far exceeded expectations. With Prescott now ensconced as the starter, Romo retired to the broadcast booth. He was the first of many departures, headlined by a mass exodus in the secondary where Barry Church, Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne and JJ Wilcox must be replaced. To that end de facto GM Jerry Jones signed Nolan Carroll and invested four of his nine draft picks on the defensive backfield, including Day 2 picks Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis. The Cowboys look loaded for bear on offense. Now it’s up to the defense to incorporate all of the offseason changes. If they can, there’s no reason Dallas shouldn’t be in the mix again come January.
[HEAD COACH] It took six seasons, but JASON GARRETT looks to have finally left .500 in the
rearview mirror. Following a 13-win campaign, Garret is now 58-46 during his time in Dallas and has won two NFC East titles in the last three years. He took some hits for the team’s performance early against Green Bay, but his level-headed approach is a good fit for Jones’ bluster. Garrett now oversees a young, talented roster with Super Bowl ambitions. Can he get them over the hump?
take an offseason full of praise and heightened expectations in stride. For fantasy, Prescott is a top-10 option.
[BACKUP] Had KELLEN MOORE not sustained
a broken ankle in training camp who knows what would’ve happened when Romo went down? Clearly the team thinks he can play, re-signing him to be Prescott’s backup despite showing little during a three-game stint late in 2015. If the
Third-year offensive coordinator Scott Linehan plays to his strengths, running behind one of the NFL’s top lines and controlling the clock. DC Rod Marinelli may have his work cut out for him defensively following significant personnel losses.
carries (322) and rushing yards (1,631) last season. His blend of power and burst—he led the league in runs of 20 yards or more (14)—is perhaps unmatched, and running behind Dallas’ starstudded line makes stopping him an even more difficult task. Elliot did have some issues with ball security, but it’s his modest contributions in the passing game that should keep him out of the top spot in fantasy drafts. He’ll be a top-five overall pick. [BACKUP] DARREN MCFADDEN missed most
of 2016 after undergoing offseason elbow surgery. Had the team needed him it’s likely McFadden could’ve returned earlier, but Dallas had the luxury of bringing him along slowly. He ran for 1,089 yards behind this line in 2015, but the oftinjured veteran turns 30 before the season, and it’s fair to wonder what he has left. He’s a late-round handcuff at best.
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] Let’s go ahead and rip up all those DAK PRESCOTT scouting reports that said he
could develop into an NFL backup. The Mississippi State product authored one of the best rookie campaigns in history last season, completing 67.8 percent of his 459 passes for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns and only four picks. His poise belied his inexperience, and his accuracy was better than advertised. While there’s always a chance for regression, Prescott’s demeanor suggests he’ll
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Despite sitting out Week 17, EZEKIEL ELLIOT comfortably led the NFL in
undersized Moore were pressed into the action Dallas would ride their running game and ask the southpaw to do as little as possible. As such his fantasy appeal is nil.
[THIRD] After starting his first 64 NFL games, ALFRED MORRIS was strictly a backup in Big
D, and it’s unclear if he’s suited for that role. Morris averaged just 3.5 YPC, which marked the fourth straight season his yards per carry have declined. He’s also a nonfactor as a receiver and doesn’t play special teams. If undrafted JAHAD
Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
DAK PRESCOTT
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GIANTS @BRONCOS @CARDINALS RAMS PACKERS BYE
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THOMAS impresses in camp or the team feels
rookie wideout Ryan Switzer can approximate a third-down back, Morris could be out of a job. Don’t draft him.
JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] In terms of talent, DEZ BRYANT remains near the top of NFL receivers. When it comes to durability and production, however, it’s a different story. After averaging a robust 911,312-14 line from 2012-14, Bryant has struggled to stay healthy. He broke his foot in 2015 and dealt with a knee injury last year. In 22 combined games over the last two years, he has posted 81 receptions, 1,197 yards and 11 scores. Another year working with Prescott should benefit the duo’s timing, but that doesn’t address Bryant’s durability concerns. He’s a safer gamble as a WR2 with WR1 upside. [STARTER] Coming off his best season in 2015 it was widely expected that TERRANCE WILLIAMS would leave via free agency after last
year. Instead, Williams regressed statistically, falling from 840 yards to 594, and when a market for him didn’t materialize he signed a modest deal with Dallas. His size and speed mean he’ll remain the “starter” outside, but he’s behind Cole Beasley in the pecking order. Given Williams’ sporadic production there’s not much to like here.
[THIRD] COLE BEASLEY isn’t very big, and
he isn’t very fast. Despite those limitations, the SMU product has evolved into a dangerous weapon out of the slot thanks to improved precision on his routes and quickness off the line. He led the team in receptions (75) and receiving yards (833), both of which were career highs, and added five touchdowns in 2017. He could serve as your No. 5 wideout, though as with most possession receivers, Beasley’s value jumps in point-per-reception leagues.
[FOURTH] Fourth-round selection RYAN SWITZER is cut from the same undersized cloth
as Beasley. He’s quick, runs crisp routes and has good hands. There’s no deep speed, meaning he’ll need to make his living underneath, and he can
RB WR QB TE RB WR WR
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT DEZ BRYANT DAK PRESCOTT JASON WITTEN DARREN MCFADDEN COLE BEASLEY TERRANCE WILLIAMS
@49ERS @WASHINGTON CHIEFS @FALCONS EAGLES CHARGERS
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OCT 22 OCT 29 NOV 05 NOV 12 NOV 19 NOV 23
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[FIFTH] A full season in Dallas didn’t improve BRICE BUTLER’s production as he had just 219
yards last year (down for 258 in a seven-game stint in ‘15). He has flashed some big-play potential, however, and could be brought back. LUCKY WHITEHEAD and NOAH BROWN are possibilities as well. Most of Whitehead’s contributions come in the return game, so Switzer’s selection is a direct threat. Brown, a seventh-round pick, is a physical presence both as a receiver and blocker. On the downside, his route running is limited and he’s light on experience. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] When JASON WITTEN entered the NFL there were only three channels and gas cost a nickel. Well, perhaps not, but the 15th-year veteran has been playing at a high level for a very long time now. Witten posted a steady 69-673-3 line last season while appearing in all 16 games for the 13th consecutive campaign. Even though his days of running past defenders are long gone, Witten has a knack for getting open and is an invaluable safety valve for Prescott. In fantasy circles he’s a solid TE2. [BACKUP] Prior to tearing a pectoral muscle in Week 10, GEOFF SWAIM had become the No. 2 tight end. It’s primarily a blocking role, and one Swaim figures to fill again assuming his foot heals properly following offseason surgery. RICO GATHERS is hoping to stick on the 53-man roster this year after spending 2016 on the practice squad. He has more size (6-foot-6, 281 pounds) and athleticism than Swaim but is still relatively raw after playing basketball collegiately.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] By his standards, DAN BAILEY had
a down year in 2016, connecting on a careerlow 84.4 percent (27-for-32) of his FGAs. His struggles came from long range as he missed half
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get roughed up by physical DBs. While Switzer could fill multiple roles as a rookie—slot receiver, returner, pseudo third-down back—he’s unlikely to contribute enough to warrant fantasy consideration outside dynasty leagues.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 2 11 14 15 62 67 82
WASHINGTON @GIANTS @RAIDERS SEAHAWKS @EAGLES
of his six attempts of 50 yards or more. Even with that, Bailey still piled up 127 points, which put him in a three-way tie for eighth in the NFL. He’s a good choice as a season-long PK option.
[RETURNERS] LUCKY WHITEHEAD served as the primary return man on both kickoffs (23.2 yards per return) and punts (7.8; 15th in the NFL) last season. Enter rookie RYAN SWITZER, who had seven punt returns for scores at North Carolina and is the likely frontrunner for both jobs heading into training camp.
JJ DEFENSE Buoyed by a dominant run game, the Cowboys finished fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 19.1 points per game. Don’t be deceived. While Dallas gave consistent effort they were short on playmakers—Benson Mayowa led the team with six sacks and no one created more than two turnovers—as the team finished 13th in sacks (36) and 19th in takeaways (20). Firstround pick Taco Charlton and the expected return of Jaylon Smith, who missed his entire rookie year recovering from a knee injury suffered in college, should help, but the on-the-fly overhaul of the secondary is a major red flag. Keep clear of this group. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] It feels like there’s a perception that COLE BEASLEY has reached his ceiling, but has he? He’s the steadiest pass catcher in Dallas not named Jason Witten, and there’s an undeniable chemistry between him and Prescott. Beasley isn’t a force in the red zone, but it’s not crazy to think he could top 80 catches and 1,000 yards in 2017.
[OVERVALUED] DAK PRESCOTT was phenomenal last season. He was accurate with the ball, limited mistakes and made plays with both his arm and his legs. Teams have a way of making adjustments in the offseason, however, and it remains to be seen how well Prescott reacts to true adversity. He’s earned top-10 status; just make sure you have a capable backup.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 310 254 338 134 77 114 93
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 280 178 261 77 57 74 61
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $51 $32 $8 $2 $1 $1
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DENVER BRONCOS Keith Hernandez
I
n what ended up being head coach Gary Kubiak’s final season—he retired for health reasons after the 2016 campaign—the Broncos (9-7) failed to make the postseason for the first time since 2010. Denver surprisingly got off to a 4-0 start behind a young quarterback on the strength of their defense, but things quickly unraveled when starting running back C.J. Anderson suffered a season-ending knee injury halfway through the year. A lack of identity on offense, a poor offensive line and a weakened run defense were just a few of the reasons why the Broncos were a mediocre outfit in 2016.
GM John Elway named Vance Joseph as Kubiak’s successor. The first order of business in the offseason was fortifying what was a putrid offensive line; that started with free-agent signings Ron Leary and Menelik Watson and continued with first-round pick Garrett Bolles. Five of Denver’s seven selections were spent on offense, including speedster Carlos Henderson. Among the key departures were DeMarcus Ware (retired), Sylvester Williams, Kayvon Webster and Russell Okung. After the draft, Denver took a flier on Jamaal Charles. With a new coaching staff and plenty of questions at quarterback, the Broncos may struggle to be a .500 club in what could be the best division, top to bottom, in the NFL.
[HEAD COACH] VANCE JOSEPH has just over
a decade of coaching experience in the NFL. He was a defensive assistant for much of that time before serving as Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2016. He gained notoriety around the league coaching defensive backs in Cincy for two years before getting the job in Miami. As more of a defensive mind, he’ll lean heavily on his assistants when trying to fix Denver’s anemic offense.
downs and 10 interceptions in 2016. He’s also a nonfactor with his legs. The unpredictability of his job status makes Siemian an extremely risky fantasy backup.
[BACKUP] Elway and the Broncos didn’t draft PAXTON LYNCH in the first round a year ago
to have him hold a clipboard forever. His size (6-foot-7, 244 pounds) and strong arm give him more long-term appeal and projectability than
Former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy returns for a second stint as the Broncos’ offensive coordinator, replacing Rick Dennison. On the defensive side future Hall of Famer Wade Phillips departed for the Rams’ coordinator gig, leading to the promotion of Joe Woods as coordinator to maintain continuity for the team’s strength.
wide-open quarterback competition as a slight favorite after he exceeded expectations as the full-time starter in just his second season. Despite leading Denver to a winning record, the former seventh-rounder often looked overmatched in the pocket and was more of a game manager. He offers familiarity but a limited statistical ceiling, as evidenced by his 3,401 passing yards, 18 touch-
season. The fourth-year back finished with 110 carries for 437 yards (career-low 4.0 YPC) and four touchdowns, and his inability to stay healthy—he has yet to play a full season—has lead the Broncos to enact more of a runningback-by-committee. He should still lead the team in carries, but his injury history, lack of involvement in the passing game and overall depth at the position make Anderson better suited as an RB3 target. [BACKUP] DEVONTAE BOOKER disappointed
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] TREVOR SIEMIAN enters a
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] A meniscus injury cost CJ ANDERSON nine games and ultimately flatlined Denver’s
his counterpart in Denver’s QB competition. He must improve his footwork, however, along with his knowledge of the offense to land the starting gig—things he struggled with in his two starts in 2016. Still a virtual unknown at this level, Lynch has some appeal in dynasty leagues and as a lowend backup if he wins the job.
in his rookie season and didn’t look anything like a lead back while replacing the injured Anderson down the stretch. He’ll have a chance to show that his 174-612-4 line and three lost fumbles were a learning experience in a committee approach, possibly as the team’s primary third-down back. Since the touches and playing time are likely to be fluid, however, Booker shouldn’t be anything more than a late-round flier or handcuff for Anderson owners.
[THIRD] Thirty-year-old JAMAAL CHARLES
missed 27 of a possible 35 games with the Chiefs over the last two seasons due to multiple knee injuries. Nonetheless, Denver gave him a one-year deal hoping he has something left in the tank as a
Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
DEMARYIUS THOMAS
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CHARGERS COWBOYS @BILLS RAIDERS BYE GIANTS
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complement for Anderson. Charles’ career mark of 5.5 yards per carry is an NFL record, so even a glimmer of his former self could go a long way in this backfield. Denver will likely ease him in, and expectations are low, so Charles could be a valuable low-risk, high-reward late-round flier in point-per-reception formats. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] In the last five seasons, DEMARYIUS THOMAS has been one of the NFL’s most reliable receivers, compiling five straight years of 90 or more receptions and 1,000-plus yards. While his touchdown totals have withered—11 combined scores the past two seasons after averaging 11.7 from 2012-14—due to shaky QB play, the 29-year-old should continue to be a target monster in an offense that’ll be more pass-happy under McCoy. Drops can be an issue, but Thomas remains a strong WR2 that could be available a little later in drafts because of Denver’s quarterback situation. [STARTER] Despite his lack of size (5-foot-11, 180 pounds), EMMANUEL SANDERS is one of
the toughest receivers around, and he excels at making highlight-reel catches. His career took off after joining Denver in ‘14 with three straight 1,000-yard seasons, though his yardage output has dropped each successive year. The SMU product has yet to record double-digit scores in any season, however, and that’s unlikely to change given his stature and the team’s options at signalcaller. Despite that, Sanders remains a low-end No. 2 fantasy receiver.
[THIRD] After Thomas and Sanders, Denver’s
receiver depth falls off a cliff. As such, rookie
CARLOS HENDERSON has a good shot to open
2017 in the slot. The 82nd overall pick was highly productive in 2016, finishing fourth in FBS in total touchdowns (23) and fifth in receiving yards (1,535) despite missing two games with an ankle injury. Durability is a legitimate concern with Henderson, who checks in at 5-foot-11, 199 pounds, but his versatility, quickness and ability to break tackles gives him plenty of upside. Keep an eye on him in training camp.
WR WR RB QB QB RB
DEMARYIUS THOMAS EMMANUEL SANDERS CJ ANDERSON TREVOR SIEMIAN PAXTON LYNCH DEVONTAE BOOKER
@CHARGERS @CHIEFS @EAGLES PATRIOTS BENGALS @RAIDERS
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[FIFTH] Denver had high hopes for CODY LATIMER when they drafted him in the second round
in 2014, but he hasn’t performed on game days and is entering a make-or-break year. He’ll be competing with JORDAN TAYLOR (16-209-2 as a rookie) and diminutive fifth-round pick ISAIAH MCKENZIE, who lacks polish but has blazing quickness. Avoid them all. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] Two years into a three-year, $8.4 million deal, VIRGIL GREEN has played 28
games, made 34 receptions for 410 yards and scored twice. While some thought a breakout was coming, it turns out his expertise is in run blocking and not pass catching, which makes his spot on the depth chart tenuous as the Broncos look for more offense from the position. He can be ignored in fantasy leagues.
[BACKUP] Acquired in a midseason trade with New England, A.J. DERBY had 16 catches for 160 yards over six games in Denver. The 25-yearold may be the position’s best vertical threat, but injuries have been a problem. That’s the story with JEFF HEUERMAN, a third-round pick in 2015 that tore his ACL a week after being drafted and has struggled to stay on the field, and rookie JAKE BUTT, who is making his way back from a torn ACL of his own. While you shouldn’t draft any of them, it’s a position battle worth monitoring.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
matched his kicking totals from ‘15 by going 29for-34 on FGAs (85.3 percent), including three successful tries from 50-plus yards. He finished just 18th in scoring (118 points), however, down from 10th in 2015. Despite one of the strongest
POSITION RANK (p.31) 13 27 15 29 32 49
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 29 46 65
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[FOURTH] If Henderson isn’t ready or can’t stay healthy, BENNIE FOWLER is the presumptive next man up at receiver. He posted just 11 catches, 145 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games last year, which was down from his rookie numbers. He must eliminate critical drops to gain the new coaching staff’s trust. Until he does, Fowler is of no interest.
[KICKER] BRANDON MCMANUS nearly
@DOLPHINS JETS @COLTS @WASHINGTON CHIEFS
legs in the league aided by kicking at altitude, McManus is held back by an offense that needs to prove it can provide regular opportunities. [RETURNERS] With last year’s leading punt
returner Jordan Norwood gone, a pair of smallish rookies, CARLOS HENDERSON and ISAIAH MCKENZIE, could be tasked with taking over as the team’s primary return man. CODY LATIMER, who led the club with eight kickoff returns in 2016, is also a possibility. JJ DEFENSE After the defense almost single-handedly carried the Broncos to a Super Bowl title they came back with another strong showing, finishing fourth in both total and scoring defense (18.6 points allowed per game). Von Miller (team-high 13.5 sacks) again paced a pass rush that tied for third in the NFL in sacks (42), while Denver’s DB tandem of Aqib Talib (team-high three INTs) and Chris Harris made opposing QBs hold the ball an extra beat. The group was opportunistic as well, taking the ball away 27 times (tied for seventh-most). Assuming Shane Ray (eight sacks) can continue to produce opposite Miller, Denver’s D remains a high-end fantasy squad. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] C.J. Anderson has never played a full season in his four years and Jamaal Charles isn’t even a lock to make the roster given his recent knee ailments, leaving second-year back DEVONTAE BOOKER overlooked in this committee backfield. If Denver’s investments on the offensive line pay off, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Utah product rise to the top. [OVERVALUED] Even though JAMAAL CHARLES hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since
2014 due to a series of injuries, name value alone will likely cause him to be overdrafted. With an incentive-laden contract, Charles may only have a 50-50 shot to make the final roster. Charles’ dominant history makes him worthy of a lateround flier, but you shouldn’t get your hopes up for a renaissance.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 240 192 194 175 118 96
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 146 122 167 124 86 59
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $28 $8 $25 $1 $1 $1
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DETROIT LIONS Herija C. Green
N
ot much was expected from the Lions in the wake of Calvin Johnson’s retirement, and a 1-3 start seemed to validate lowered expectations. The Lions rallied, however, winning eight of nine and showing an innate ability to win close games in the process. It was fool’s gold. Detroit dropped their final three games, including a Week 17 home loss to Green Bay that cost them the NFC North, and finished the season at 9-7 (0-5 against playoff teams). A dispirited group traveled to Seattle in the Wild Card round and was soundly outclassed, 26-6, setting an NFL record by concluding their 25th consecutive season without a playoff win.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] Is JIM CALDWELL underrated?
The 62-year-old has gone 27-21 and made the playoffs twice in three seasons with the Lions despite high-profile departures like Johnson and Ndamukong Suh. In fact, Caldwell owns a 51-29 mark in the five seasons in which he didn’t lose his starting quarterback (he went 2-14 with the Colts minus Peyton Manning in 2011). Still, there was speculation Caldwell was coaching for his job prior to the Wild Card loss. He seems to be on perpetually shaky ground.
is better served as a strong backup than your primary signal-caller.
[BACKUPS] A pair of sixth-round picks, JAKE RUDOCK (2016) and BRAD KAAYA (‘17), will
battle for clipboard duties behind Stafford. Both played in pro-style offenses in college, but Rudock figures to have the advantage after spending last season learning the offense. That being said,
Jim Bob Cooter’s first full season in charge was a bit underwhelming, though injuries decimated his backfield. He’ll be seeking a more balanced attack in 2017. Teryl Austin enters Year 4 as defensive coordinator. JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] With the Lions unable to run the ball, MATTHEW STAFFORD was asked to carry the load offensively in 2016. He started strong, passing for 14 TDs in his first six games, but wasn’t nearly as productive late when he threw for just six scores over the final seven contests. Stafford is a good athlete, durable under center—he hasn’t missed a start since 2010—and has cut down on his mistakes over the years. While he’s a safe bet for 4,000-plus yards this season, Stafford
Kaaya’s accuracy and polish may already be superior, and he’s considered to have more long-term upside (if he can improve under pressure). No matter who wins, Stafford’s durability suggests they won’t see meaningful snaps in 2017.
GOLDEN TATE
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] When the Lions drafted AMEER ABDULLAH in 2015 scouts worried about his ability to endure the pounding of the NFL. Two seasons, two surgeries and 14 missed games later, it’s fair to say questions about his durability persist. Abdullah has flashed playmaking ability when healthy, and the signings of Wagner and Lang implies Detroit is serious about offensive balance. While Abdullah is penciled in as the No. 1 back, how many touches does Detroit feel comfortable giving him? Consider Abdullah a tempting RB3 with boom-or-bust potential.
[BACKUP] THEO RIDDICK was pressed into extended action when Abdullah went down, and for the most part the Notre Dame product looked overmatched. There’s no question he’s a weapon as a receiver out of the backfield—133 receptions, 1,068 yards and eight touchdowns in his last 26 games—but a career average of 3.5 yards per carry isn’t misleading. Riddick, who underwent surgery on both wrists this offseason, should be the third-down back in 2017. He’d make a solid fourth fantasy option with added value in pointper-reception leagues. [THIRD] When Abdullah and Riddick went down, the team turned to ZACH ZENNER and DWAYNE WASHINGTON. Of the two, Zenner
Photo: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
In his second offseason with the club, GM Bob Quinn was a busy man, inking nearly a dozen free agents. The big money went to Ricky Wagner and TJ Lang, who replace Larry Warford and Riley Reiff along the offensive front. Among the other signings, only DLs Akeem Spence and Cornelius Washington got multiyear deals. Quinn’s draft focused on defense early with a pair of Florida Gators, first-round pick Jarrad Davis and second-rounder Teez Tabor, expected to contribute immediately. The Lions could certainly be in the postseason hunt in 2017, but the Packers and potentially the Vikings stand between them and a divisional crown.
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CARDINALS @GIANTS FALCONS @VIKINGS PANTHERS @SAINTS
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was the one that flashed some upside, accounting for 202 yards and three scores over the final two games. He’s a tough inside runner and is likely Plan B if Abdullah’s injury woes persist. As for Washington, he has intriguing measurables but carries durability concerns of his own. Former Viking MATT ASIATA (121-402-6 in ‘16) brings toughness and experience to the table but little else. In this group only Zenner has appeal as a late-round flier/handcuff. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Whether or not GOLDEN TATE is a true No. 1 receiver he’s the best the Lions have, and in three seasons in Motown he has averaged 93 receptions for 1,074 yards. That is respectable production, but there are two notable issues since joining Detroit: 1) Tate largely subsists on shorter routes these days (11.5 yards per catch), and 2) he’s too small to be a consistent producer inside the red zone (14 TDs). A volume receiver with smarts and toughness, Tate is a low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout. [STARTER] MARVIN JONES made fans forget
about Calvin Johnson... for about a month. Unfortunately, after Jones compiled 23 catches, 482 yards and two scores through four games, he posted a 32-448-2 line over the final 12 and didn’t score after Week 6. He blamed his struggles on double coverage and an offense designed to spread the wealth, but he’s the team’s top vertical threat and must win downfield to open things up. Jones enters 2017 as a WR4/ WR5 with the potential to ascend.
[THIRD] Third-round pick KENNY GOLLADAY is guaranteed a roster spot. Beyond that it’s
unclear what the 6-foot-4, 218-pound rookie will contribute. His best attribute is his size, something that’s lacking outside, and that alone could make him a weapon in the red zone—Anquan Boldin’s 220-pound frame helped him lead the team in TDs last year with eight. Despite limited options, Golladay has trouble separating and is making the jump from Northern Illinois so temper your expectations.
[FOURTH] Assuming Boldin doesn’t re-sign, T.J. JONES is the top returning option for the
WR RB RB WR TE QB
GOLDEN TATE THEO RIDDICK AMEER ABDULLAH MARVIN JONES ERIC EBRON MATT STAFFORD
BYE STEELERS @PACKERS BROWNS @BEARS VIKINGS
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[FIFTH] Among the names fighting for a spot are KESHAWN MARTIN, JARED ABBREDERIS and JACE BILLINGSLEY. Martin, a Michigan
State alum, has bounced around the NFL since 2012. That includes a nine-game stint with New England where he posted a 24-269-2 line while Bob Quinn was there. Abbrederis spent three years with the Packers, flashing his smarts and toughness but battling injuries. Billingsley led the Lions in receiving (12-146) last preseason and spent most of the year on the practice squad. The team likes Billingsley; he’s a dark horse to emerge as the slot receiver. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] It’s amazing that ERIC EBRON
reached pay dirt on just one of his 61 grabs last season considering he’s 6-foot-4, 253 pounds. Despite his red-zone struggles, the former 10th overall pick has progressed, improving his receptions and yardage each of his first three years. Still just 24, Ebron has the size and speed to threaten defenses. If he can stay healthy—hardly a given considering he hasn’t played more than 14 games in a season—Ebron could produce top-10 numbers at the position. [BACKUP] MICHAEL ROBERTS and DARREN FELLS will battle for snaps behind Ebron. Rob-
erts, a fourth-round pick, is a beast (6-foot-4, 270 pounds) and possesses the tools to make a mark on third downs and in the red zone. Fells played three seasons in Arizona and carries a reputation as one of the NFL’s best blocking tight ends. Neither player is worthy of fantasy consideration. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
solid season for the Lions, connecting on 31 of his 36 FGAs, including 7-for-7 from 50 yards and beyond (only Baltimore’s Justin Tucker made more), and 31 of 33 PATs. It all added up to 124
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Lions. That isn’t saying much. Jones has just 15 receptions since the team selected him in 2014, and he spent much of last year on the practice squad. It’s a complete free-for-all after the top three, and Jones could end up in the slot or looking for work. He’s of zero interest on draft day.
[KICKER] MATT PRATER enjoyed another
@RAVENS @BUCCANEERS BEARS @BENGALS PACKERS
points, tied for 12th in the NFL, and Prater’s best season since leaving Denver. With his accuracy and an indoor stadium, the veteran is a borderline top-10 kicker.
[RETURNERS] A year ago, Andre Roberts
handled both kickoff and punt returns. Without him, it’s open season. Among the options are DWAYNE WASHINGTON, T.J. JONES and JACE BILLINGSLEY. All three could be on the bubble come August so this battle may play a key role in who makes the club. JJ DEFENSE Although the Lions finished an identical 18th in total defense, they moved from 23rd in points allowed in 2015 to 13th (22.4 per game) last year. That they did it with basically no pass rush (26 sacks; tied for 30th in the NFL) is impressive. The fall from 43 sacks to 26 can be traced directly to Ziggy Ansah, who was dogged by an ankle injury for most of last season and fell from 14.5 sacks to two. Splash plays were also few and far between for the Lions as their 14 takeaways tied with the Jets for 28th. While Detroit hopes improved health and a few key additions will help, there are better options available. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] There’s nothing exciting about ZACH ZENNER. He’s a self-made player from a small college that opened 2016 fourth on the depth chart. Ho hum. Except that he’s arguably the most complete back in Detroit. He’s a better runner than Riddick and more durable than Abdullah or Washington. Another Abdullah injury should immediately put Zenner into a meaningful role.
[OVERVALUED] In a year when Detroit’s leading rusher gained just 357 yards, MATTHEW STAFFORD finished 14th in the NFL in touchdown passes and sixth in yardage—many of which came in the fourth quarter. If the Lions can finally put together a respectable running game, Stafford’s numbers could drop. He’s better off as a strong QB2.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 212 134 135 150 151 340
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 132 88 118 103 88 254
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $17 $3 $3 $3 $3 $7
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GREEN BAY PACKERS Herija C. Green
W
ith the Packers at 4-6 through 10 games and staring at a lost season, Aaron Rodgers uttered three words: run the table. And run it they did, winning their final six games of the regular season and outclassing the Lions in Week 17 to capture their fifth NFC North banner in six years. They dispatched playoff nemesis New York, 38-13, in the Wild Card round and downed No. 1 seed Dallas the following week. Green Bay ran out of steam in the NFC Championship Game, however, and was brushed aside by the Falcons, 44-21—a rare postseason blowout under Mike McCarthy. There was an unusually high amount of change during the offseason, which saw the likes of Julius Peppers, TJ Lang, Eddie Lacy, Jared Cook and Sam Shields (released) depart. GM Ted Thompson was surprisingly active in free agency as well, inking Martellus Bennett, Lance Kendricks and Jahri Evans among others. The draft brought help in the secondary with secondrounders Kevin King and Josh Jones, and Thompson spent a trio of Day 3 picks on running backs. While there are questions aplenty on defense, the Rodgers-led offense looks potentially lethal. They remain the class of the NFC North and belong on the short list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
[HEAD COACH] If you took the temperature of MIKE MCCARTHY’s seat on Nov. 21 it might’ve
required oven mitts. Fast-forward two months and McCarthy had secured a sixth divisional crown and fourth NFC Championship Game appearance. Things ended on a down note, however, leaving McCarthy’s postseason record at 10-8 and marking the sixth straight year without a Super Bowl appearance. Some believe he has underachieved, but that sentiment isn’t shared by the organization, which continues to put its trust in the combination of McCarthy/Thompson.
down and run (his 369 rushing yards were third among QBs) he has proven durable. Rodgers should be the first quarterback selected.
[BACKUPS] A preseason darling in 2015, BRETT HUNDLEY missed most of August with
an ankle injury and saw only mop-up duty during the regular season. The Packers believe they can win with Hundley and elected to keep him as Rodgers’ understudy for another season despite
[BACKUP] Fourth-round pick JAMAAL WILLIAMS is one of three rookies jockeying for
Dom Capers is back for a ninth year as defensive coordinator, which confirms McCarthy blames talent, not scheme for the unit’s struggles. Edgar Bennett is entering Year 3 as the offensive coordinator, though McCarthy runs the show. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] Reports of AARON RODGERS’
demise were greatly exaggerated. The two-time MVP shook off a relatively slow start to toss for 2,018 yards, 18 TDs and 0 INTs over his final seven games. The change corresponded to the return of Jared Cook, and while Cook is gone, the team believes Bennett is an upgrade. Now 33, Rodgers is still at the height of his powers, and despite his willingness to extend plays or pull it
and James Starks never got going. He was effective in the role, averaging 5.9 yards per carry while showing good vision and toughness. The converted receiver can stay in the backfield or flank out wide, and he presents matchup problems for opposing defenses. Montgomery was used sparingly, however, and the jury remains out as to whether he can handle the pounding of regular use. Consider Montgomery an RB3 with a bump in point-per-reception leagues.
outside interest. JOE CALLAHAN made the team out of camp, and then spent time with Cleveland and New Orleans before Green Bay re-signed him. He’s being groomed to be the potential No. 2 option for 2018. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] TY MONTGOMERY became the
team’s de facto No. 1 back when Lacy got hurt
position on the depth chart. The BYU product is a powerful downhill runner that gains yards after contact, and he’s a willing combatant in pass pro. Williams lacks an extra gear, however, and has limited experience as a receiver out of the backfield. While he figures to be the power option in Green Bay’s ground attack, Williams’ role is hardly etched in stone. He’s late-round depth with some upside.
[THIRD] AARON JONES (the 182nd pick) and DEVANTE MAYS (238th) are the other rookies in
the mix. Jones compiled more than 4,000 yards rushing at UTEP and showed his all-around athleticism at the combine. He has some durability concerns but is more of a big-play threat than Williams. While a leg injury limited Mays to 37 carries last year, he has surprising explosiveness
Photo: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
DAVANTE ADAMS
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SEAHAWKS @FALCONS BENGALS BEARS @COWBOYS @VIKINGS
SUN. SUN. SUN. THU. SUN. SUN.
SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 SEP 28 OCT 08 OCT 15
4:25PM 8:30PM 4:25PM 8:25PM 4:25PM 1:00PM
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for his size (5-foot-11, 230 pounds). Holdover AARON RIPKOWSKI assumed the John Kuhn role in 2016 and did well outside of his disastrous fumble in Atlanta. Jones is worth watching. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
missing the 2015 campaign with a torn ACL was catch 97 passes for 1,257 yards and NFL-best 14 touchdowns. His 13.0 yards per reception were well below his career average (14.8), but 19 catches of 20 yards or more matched his ‘14 output. Although Nelson initially lacked his pre-injury burst, he proved he could rely on his hands and smarts to find open spots in the secondary. Even at 32, Nelson is a steady No. 1 fantasy wideout.
[STARTER] A disappointment in Year 2, DAVANTE ADAMS emerged as one of Rodgers’
go-to targets in 2016. He was noticeably slimmed down, and his quickness off the line and refined technique as a route runner helped compensate for a lack of downfield speed. Adams showed a penchant for making tough receptions, but his hands were inconsistent and led to too many drops, including a pair of easy scores. Entering a contract season, Adams is firmly entrenched opposite Nelson and would make a nice low-end WR2, with a potential for more. ued last season, as he caught 60 passes for 610 yards and three TDs (down from 79-829-6 in 2015 and 91-1,287-12 the year before). Injuries contributed to Cobb’s struggles, and one has to wonder if six seasons of taking shots as a receiver, returner and running back have taken their toll. After basically not playing the final three weeks, Cobb torched the Giants for 116 yards and three scores in the Wild Card round, proving he can still excel out of the slot. Draft him as your fourth option and hope for more.
[FOURTH] It’s unsettled after the top three, but GERONIMO ALLISON did enough as a rookie
to be considered the frontrunner for the fourth spot. A wiry target at 6-foot-3, 202 pounds, Allison made plays after being summoned from
WR WR QB RB RB WR TE
JORDY NELSON DAVANTE ADAMS AARON RODGERS TY MONTGOMERY JAMAAL WILLIAMS RANDALL COBB MARTELLUS BENNETT
SUN. OCT 22
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MON. NOV 06 SUN. NOV 12 SUN. NOV 19 SUN. NOV 26
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the practice squad in Week 8, showing an innate feel for getting open when Rodgers adlibbed. He has good hands and respectable speed. The issue figures to be how many opportunities he receives in a loaded passing attack.
JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] Green Bay wanted MARTELLUS BENNETT last year, but the Bears refused to
trade him within the division and he landed in New England with Rob Gronkowski. Bennett was left to pick up the slack when Gronk got hurt, however, and he finished with a respectable 55-701-7 line despite battling multiple injuries of his own. Off the field, Bennett is a unique personality. On it, he’s a versatile pass catcher and tenacious blocker that could thrive. Bennett profiles as a strong TE2.
[BACKUP] That Thompson signed Bennett and LANCE KENDRICKS indicates he doesn’t see RICHARD RODGERS in his long-term plans.
Like Bennett, Kendricks has some juice as a pass catcher and is a tenacious blocker, and their arrival allows McCarthy to utilize more two-tight end looks. Rodgers may be on the bubble, though his soft hands and red-zone savvy should earn him another year. [KICKER] MASON CROSBY has settled in as one of the NFL’s steadier placekickers, converting 26 of 30 FGAs (86.7 percent) and going 44-for47 on PATs. His kicks during the Divisional
POSITION RANK (p.31) 5 16 1 22 47 39 9
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 12 33 36 55 87 99 126
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 SAT. DEC 23 SUN. DEC 31
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Round upset of Dallas will live on in Packers lore, even though his miss the following week set the tone for a humbling defeat. While his 122 points a season ago finished a middling 14th, Crosby is a safe option for fantasy owners.
erage units, but his chance to emerge as a receiver in Green Bay has likely passed. TREVOR DAVIS basically redshirted last year. The team hopes he’ll make a leap as no one on the roster can match his vertical speed. Rookies DEANGELO YANCEY and MALACHI DUPREE are also options. Yancey has good size (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) and speed but is considered a limited route runner. Dupree is tough and can work underneath—he got some post-draft attention as a possible seventh-round steal for the Green and the Gold.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
BUCCANEERS @BROWNS @PANTHERS VIKINGS @LIONS
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
[FIFTH] Veteran JEFF JANIS is a force on cov-
[STARTER] All JORDY NELSON did after
[THIRD] RANDALL COBB’s regression contin-
SAINTS BYE LIONS @BEARS RAVENS @STEELERS
[RETURNERS] JEFF JANIS and TREVOR DAVIS figure to get long looks as returners this
August. Davis showed his potential on a 55-yard haul back, but he put the ball on the ground twice in a four-game stretch. RANDALL COBB is probably the fallback option, at least on punts. JJ DEFENSE Green Bay’s defense struggled for most of last season, particularly a secondary that dealt with major injuries. Even with a quality pass rush (40 sacks; tied for sixth in the NFL), the Packers couldn’t hold up, finishing 22nd in total defense and 21st in scoring (24.3 points allowed per game). Their 25 takeaways tied for 11th. The team will be looking to a quartet of rookies and internal growth from young players for improvement, and they’ll need to find a way to replace Peppers’ 7.5 sacks. Green Bay will be faster defensively, but there are sure to be some growing pains. Look elsewhere. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] On paper, Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams profile as the team’s onetwo punch at running back. Don’t forget about AARON JONES, who may have been the best pure athlete at the position in this year’s draft. Jones posted huge numbers at UTEP, and he has the vision, shiftiness and burst to make things happen at the next level. [OVERVALUED] Were injuries to blame for RANDALL COBB’s struggles last year? Or, at 27,
is he already on the downside of his career? Either way, the Packers are expected to deploy more two-tight end sets in 2017, and they have multiple options in the slot like Ty Montgomery, who could motion out, and Geronimo Allison.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 296 225 472 174 100 174 163
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 199 159 352 119 80 107 108
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $48 $25 $43 $12 $1 $5 $4
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HOUSTON TEXANS Doug Orth
H
ouston’s 27-0 defeat at New England in Week 3 should have been the beginning of the end for the Texans, as it marked the final time defensive stalwart JJ Watt saw the field in 2016. Instead, the league’s top-ranked defense proved to be the primary reason Houston claimed its fourth AFC South title in six seasons. It was all for naught, however, as Brock Osweiler was anything but the long-term answer at quarterback. The Divisional Round loss to the Patriots proved to be a fitting end to the season: three second-half interceptions by Osweiler undermined a defense that picked Tom Brady twice and forced three turnovers overall. Watt appears good to go after two back surgeries, but breakout defensive standouts AJ Bouye (Jacksonville) and Quintin Demps (Chicago) bolted in free agency. Osweiler was shipped to Cleveland in a March salary dump—a move that appeared to pave the way for Tony Romo to take over before he opted to join CBS’ broadcast booth. Houston rebounded nicely by drafting Deshaun Watson, who’ll be expected to eventually give the back-to-back AFC South champions their answer to Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota. The Texans should compete for a division championship yet again if they can get even league-average quarterback play, but Indianapolis and Tennessee are serious threats.
[HEAD COACH] BILL O’BRIEN’s seat is a bit
warm considering Houston has finished 9-7 in each of his three seasons. He has earned a reputation as a quarterback “guru” in part for his ability to coax solid regular seasons from the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick (2014) and Brian Hoyer (2015), but it’s clear he hasn’t had a lot to work with. If Watson is the long-term answer, perhaps O’Brien will start receiving some recognition as one of the league’s better coaches.
injury history and the presence of Watson. Don’t waste your draft pick.
[BACKUP] Among his many achievements at Clemson, DESHAUN WATSON led the Tigers to a 32-3 mark, consecutive BCS Championship Game appearances and a national title. In two games against Alabama—sometimes jokingly referred to by personnel people as the NFL’s 33rd team—Watson amassed 825 yards passing, 116
After sharing play-calling duties with offensive coordinator George Godsey for most of last season, O’Brien fired Godsey and will fly solo in 2017. Former linebackers coach Mike Vrabel will succeed Romeo Crennel, who was named assistant head coach, as defensive coordinator.
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] Underused throughout his four-year stay in Miami, LAMAR MILLER turned in a workmanlike debut campaign with the Texans, battling through a number of injuries, poor offensive line play and dreadful quarterbacking to top 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in three seasons. An ankle injury sidelined him for the final two weeks of the regular season, and O’Brien would later admit that he rode Miller too hard early on. While the team wants to reduce his touches, the 26-year-old should remain the primary ball carrier and a solid RB2 in fantasy, if not a low-end RB1. [BACKUP] Third-round pick D’ONTA FOREMAN has unusual explosion for a bigger back,
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] TOM SAVAGE has prototypical size
(6-foot-4, 230 pounds) and the arm strength necessary to be a long-term NFL quarterback, but he has attempted only 92 regular-season passes in part because he has shown a frightening inability to stay healthy. He’ll enter camp as the nominal favorite due to his experience in O’Brien’s complex offensive system, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll make much of a fantasy impact in 2017 given his
realize low-end fantasy QB2 value if he wins the job in camp.
yards rushing and eight touchdowns. Watson impressed O’Brien with his grasp of the mental part of the game during a pre-draft visit, while his ability as a runner gives him a dimension no other quarterback on the roster has. Watson could
and the 6-foot, 233-pounder was drafted with the idea to lighten Miller’s load a bit. He doesn’t figure to add much as a receiver (13 catches in three years), which may limit him to early downs, and Foreman also carries concerns related to both durability and ball security. Despite that, Foreman is expected to overtake Alfred Blue, though the rookie should be considered merely a handcuff for fantasy purposes.
[THIRD] ALFRED BLUE has proven a capable fill-in during his three years in Houston, replac-
Photo: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
LAMAR MILLER
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JAGUARS @BENGALS @PATRIOTS TITANS CHIEFS BROWNS
SUN. THU. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
SEP 10 SEP 14 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
1:00PM 8:25PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 1:00PM
WK.7 WK.8 WK.9 WK.10 WK.11 WK.12
ing an injury-prone Arian Foster multiple times in 2014 and 2015. He also helped the Texans get an important win on Christmas Eve in one of the two games Miller missed, rushing for 73 yards and a score. Blue is a non-factor as a receiver, however, and his 3.6 yards-per-carry average speaks to a lack of explosiveness. With Foreman on board, Blue will likely be relegated to spot duty—a role that’s bereft of fantasy appeal. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Perhaps no receiver in the NFL took it on the chin more last season than DEANDRE HOPKINS, who felt the brunt of Osweiler’s limitations more than any other Texan. In 2015, the Clemson product established a franchise mark with 11 receiving touchdowns and nearly set additional club records with 111 receptions and 1,521 yards despite catching passes from four different quarterbacks. O’Brien knows what he has in the fourth-year wideout, so Hopkins would seem poised for a rebound. Coming off a down year, he might be viewed as a WR2, but he’s a solid bet to return to WR1 status. [STARTER] Through four weeks last season, WILL FULLER appeared to be more than just the
vertical threat designed to make defenses think twice about focusing too much on Hopkins. By the end of the season, he was little more than an afterthought. The deep throws that came so easily in September turned into check-downs to minimize Osweiler’s mistakes; although Fuller didn’t help his cause by committing the same kind of drops that dogged him at Notre Dame. The speedster should improve on his 47-635-2 rookie line, but not by so much that Fuller should be considered anything but late-round depth. [THIRD] As a rookie last year, BRAXTON MILLER showed glimpses of the promise that made
Houston believe it had found its long-term, jackof-all-trades option in the slot. The former college quarterback still has much to learn, however, as he enters only his third year of playing receiver at any level. The long-term ceiling may be very high for this versatile talent, but the quarterback situation will need to be completely settled before
WR RB WR QB QB RB TE
DEANDRE HOPKINS LAMAR MILLER WILL FULLER DESHAUN WATSON TOM SAVAGE DE'ONTA FOREMAN CJ FIEDOROWICZ
BYE @SEAHAWKS COLTS @RAMS CARDINALS @RAVENS
SUN. OCT 29 SUN. NOV 05 SUN. NOV 12 SUN. NOV 19 MON. NOV 27
WK.13 WK.14 WK.15 WK.16 WK.17
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[FOURTH] JAELEN STRONG struggled with his weight as a rookie in 2015 but opened camp as a starter last season. He quickly fell behind thenrookies Fuller and Miller before a Week 8 ankle injury cost him the rest of the season. A mix of Anquan Boldin’s physicality and Alshon Jeffery’s ability to win at the catch point at Arizona State, Strong will be hard-pressed to climb the depth chart after disappointing the coaching staff in each of his first two seasons. He can be ignored barring a wave of injuries at the position. [FIFTH] Second-year pro WENDALL WILLIAMS appeared in three games last year after
making the club as an undrafted free agent out of tiny Cumberlands University. While he boasts world-class athleticism and is a solid developmental project, he’s going to be hardpressed to contribute outside of special teams barring injury. He is well off the fantasy radar. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] Nobody benefited more from Osweiler’s tendency to check down last year than CJ FIEDOROWICZ, who more than tripled his previous career highs across the board, finishing with 54 catches for 559 yards and four touchdowns. While he was a capable fantasy TE1 at times in 2016, he figures to settle in as more of a middling TE2 this season if Savage or Watson prove more successful going downfield than Osweiler.
[BACKUP] Houston’s small-ball offense also catered nicely to RYAN GRIFFIN, who hauled in 50 passes one season after setting a personal best with 20. He’ll look to hold off STEPHEN ANDERSON, the one “move” tight end on the roster and certainly the most athletic of the bunch. While Fiedorowicz is the only one worth drafting, Anderson is a name to file away.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] Primarily the result of the team’s season-long red-zone struggles, NICK NOVAK finished tied for second in the league in both field goals made (35) and attempted (41). On the
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 21 32 134
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 MON. DEC 25 SUN. DEC 31
1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 4:30PM 1:00PM
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
owners should start considering third receivers from this offense.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 12 11 59 28 34 54 26
@TITANS 49ERS @JAGUARS STEELERS @COLTS
downside, his 88 percent conversion rate on PATs was the fourth-lowest in the NFL. While he made the best of a bad situation last year, Novak isn’t someone to consider in drafts. [RETURNERS] AKEEM HUNT averaged a
team-high 21.6 yards on kick returns, while WILL FULLER ran one of the 11 punts he fielded back for a touchdown. TYLER ERVIN excelled in the return game in college and could factor into the equation at both spots despite showing little during his rookie year.
JJ DEFENSE Once Jadeveon Clowney was finally able to stay healthy, and the Texans allowed him to be more defensive end than linebacker, he began to deliver on the promise expected from a former No. 1 overall pick. Combined with Watt’s healthy return, Houston should easily exceed the meager 31 sacks (24th; tied) and 17 takeaways (26th; tied) it registered last season. There’s enough depth with three former first-round cornerbacks to survive the loss of Bouye, but second-year man KJ Dillon figures to be hard-pressed to replace Demps. Still, there is enough here for the Texans to be a top-five fantasy defense. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] If you don’t think a dualthreat rookie passer can step in and make an immediate impact consider these two words: Dak Prescott. Granted, it was an extraordinary circumstance, but DESHAUN WATSON has high-level experience, tremendous physical attributes and a supporting cast loaded with highround draft picks. If he can acclimate to O’Brien’s system quickly he could have value this year. [OVERVALUED] CJ FIEDOROWICZ’s
production last season was more a function of Osweiler’s conservative play than anything else. The former third-rounder won’t fall completely off the fantasy map, but he’s unlikely to see 89 targets again. He is a worthy selection late in drafts, but there’ll likely be a few undrafted tight ends that out-produce Fiedorowicz by season’s end.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 251 207 127 205 111 84 101
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 157 177 81 152 78 64 63
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $29 $33 $2 $1 $1 $1
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Zach Greubel
H
igh expectations quickly transformed into low morale for Indianapolis and its fans in 2016. The Colts posted an 8-8 record for the second consecutive year and missed the playoffs, resulting in the termination of GM Ryan Grigson. Early losses to the Lions and Jaguars proved to be the writing on the wall as the Colts were unable to overcome a 1-3 start—they won consecutive games just once all last year. Silver linings included the offensive quartet of Andrew Luck, Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton and Adam Vinatieri, in addition to a Pro Bowl season from punter Pat McAfee, who retired at season’s end. Even with back-to-back 8-8 seasons in the rearview mirror, the Colts remain a legitimate contender to win the AFC South in 2017. Granted, the Colts are always contenders when Luck is at the helm. New GM Chris Ballard did his part to ensure a rebound this season. Free-agent signings Johnathan Hankins, John Simon, Sean Spence and Jabaal Sheard should help bolster a ghastly defense, at least on paper. The Colts focused on the defensive side of the ball with the draft, too, including first-round pick Malik Hooker. Luck’s good health and an improved defense will be vital in the Colts’ pursuit of another division title and postseason berth.
[HEAD COACH] While CHUCK PAGANO was
in the hottest of hot seats following the 2016 season, he was ultimately retained despite two straight .500 seasons. Prior to joining the Colts, Pagano’s experience was solely on defense, yet Indianapolis has been host to one of the NFL’s worst defenses since he took over head coaching duties in 2012. If Indianapolis starts off slowly or misses the postseason again this year, Pagano will likely be looking for work next offseason, or perhaps sooner.
impressive. The sixth-year signal-caller needs better protection for longevity’s sake, but he has proven he can make the best of a less-than-ideal situation with both his arm and his legs (341 yards rushing in ‘16). Monitor his status, but bar-
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Indy has a pair of ageless wonders on their roster; FRANK GORE is one of them.
Even at 33, Gore managed to become the first Colt to top 1,000 yards rushing since 2007. All told, the bruising back tallied 1,302 total yards and eight touchdowns this past season—he even caught 38 passes, which were his most since 2010. Decline is inevitable, though, and it may be just around the corner for Gore, who has more than 3,500 touches on his résumé. Drafting him as more than a high-end RB3 is a risky proposition.
Third-year offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski leads one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. On defense, Ted Monachino coordinated a season to forget in his first year with the Colts. He’s been given a second chance with an improved defensive unit. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] ANDREW LUCK bounced back from an injury-riddled 2015 to produce his second season of 4,000-plus passing yards and 30-plus touchdowns last year. That he did it while being bothered by a right shoulder injury that led to offseason surgery—he’s expected to be fully recovered before the season starts—is even more
his career touchdown-to-interception ratio fall to 2:7 in the process. He’s clearly irrelevant as long as Luck is healthy, and he hasn’t shown he’d be worth rolling the dice on in the event of another start. While he has learned behind two of the best (Luck and Aaron Rodgers), it’s best to avoid Tolzien for fantasy purposes.
ring any setbacks Luck remains a top-five fantasy quarterback with elite upside.
[BACKUP] There are worse backups out there than SCOTT TOLZIEN, but the University of Wisconsin alum once again oversaw a doubledigit defeat when pressed into action and watched
[BACKUP] MARLON MACK is quietly stepping
into one of the better situations among rookie running backs this year. The fourth-round pick is shifty at the line and owns the kind of acceleration to turn small holes into big gains. He can dance too much at times, though, and had issues with ball security at South Florida. With Gore
Photo: Mike Jula at Fostoff Fotos
JJ COACH
ANDREW LUCK
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@RAMS CARDINALS BROWNS @SEAHAWKS 49ERS @TITANS
SUN. SEP 10 SUN. SEP 17 SUN. SEP 24 SUN. OCT 01 SUN. OCT 08 MON. OCT 16
4:05PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 1:00PM 8:30PM
WK.7 WK.8 WK.9 WK.10 WK.11 WK.12
nearing the end of the road, Mack will be licking his chops to become Gore’s successor. Those who draft Gore should give late-round precedence to Mack as a handcuff. [THIRD] Believe it or not, ROBERT TURBIN
matched Gore for the team lead in total touchdowns last season, scoring seven times on the ground and once through the air. He is expected to take a back seat to Mack this year and may not see the field much if Gore and Mack stay healthy and productive. JOSH FERGUSON should only compete for playing time in passing situations and possibly as a returner. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] While his ascent to superstardom was delayed a year, due in large to Luck’s injuries, T.Y. HILTON led the league in receiving yards (1,448) last season. He also posted a career-high 91 catches, finding pay dirt six times. That gives Hilton four straight seasons of 1,000-plus yards and five or more scores. While he lacks the size of many of the NFL’s other elite receivers, Hilton has the speed to take the top off any defense—a big reason he led the league in receptions of 20 yards or more (28). Just reaching his prime, Hilton is steady WR1.
[STARTER] Seemingly poised to take the next step, DONTE MONCRIEF was bitten by the injury
bug last season, playing in just nine games while dealing with a fractured scapula suffered in Week 2. He made up for lost time upon returning, scoring in five consecutive games before the shoulder flared up and kept him sidelined much of the final four weeks. Moncrief has established himself as a beast in the red zone. Now he just needs to be more consistent between the 20s. Moncrief is best suited as your No. 3 receiver, but meeting his potential could yield WR2 numbers.
[THIRD] One of the more underrated free-agent signings of the offseason could end up being KAMAR AIKEN. Although Aiken didn’t do much in
his third season with the Ravens last year, people forget he nearly reached the 1,000-yard plateau in 2015 after Steve Smith went down. Aiken will battle Phillip Dorsett for the No. 3 spot, but Aiken is the more reliable, more productive and
WR WR QB RB RB TE
TY HILTON DONTE MONCRIEF ANDREW LUCK FRANK GORE MARLON MACK JACK DOYLE
JAGUARS @BENGALS @TEXANS STEELERS BYE TITANS
OCT 22 OCT 29 NOV 05 NOV 12
1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM
WK.13 WK.14 WK.15 WK.16 WK.17
SUN. NOV 26
1:00PM
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more experienced option. If Aiken locks down the job he could have sneaky late-round value.
[FOURTH] PHILLIP DORSETT has been a disappointment since Indianapolis selected him with the 29th overall pick in 2015. He has turned into a one-trick deep threat that will see fewer targets than Hilton or Moncrief (and likely Aiken as well). Dorsett needs to play better than he did in his first two seasons to hold off Aiken for the third receiver job. If he does, watch him. If he doesn’t, move on. [FIFTH] Second-year man CHESTER ROGERS
appears to be the favorite for the fifth slot, but he only caught 19 passes for 273 yards in 2016, and that was with Moncrief out for nearly half the season. QUAN BRAY and TEVAUN SMITH are also in the mix, but Bray was used almost exclusively as a return man last year, while Smith spent most of ‘16 on the practice squad. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] JACK DOYLE broke out last season,
posting a 59-584-5 line that paved the way for the Colts to trade Dwayne Allen to New England. The team loves Doyle’s work ethic and attitude, and they believe him to be an ascending talent. Given Chudzinski’s past as a tight ends coach and Luck’s affinity for the position, Doyle has lowend No. 1 appeal with modest upside.
[BACKUP] Indianapolis’ coaching staff thinks ERIK SWOOPE, who played basketball for the
University of Miami (Fla.), is another player on the rise. While still a bit raw, Swoope flashed his athleticism last year, averaging 19.8 yards per catch. Now he’ll have another offseason under his belt and a more advantageous spot on the depth chart. He’s not worth drafting, but Swoope is possibly a name to file away for later. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] ADAM VINATIERI is the Colts’
other ageless wonder. The 44-year-old’s streak of consecutive field goals made ended, coincidentally, at 44 in late November, but he still finished 27-for-31 (87.1 percent) on FGAs and was one of five full-time kickers to make all of their PATs in 2016 (44-for-44). Vinatieri has averaged 135
POSITION RANK (p.31) 7 31 3 23 61 13
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 19 37 58 92 111 138
@JAGUARS @BILLS BRONCOS @RAVENS TEXANS
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points per year in Luck’s last three healthy seasons and remains a midrange No. 1 option.
[RETURNERS] JOSH FERGUSON is the favor-
ite to return kicks, a role Jordan Todman handled admirably last year. Meanwhile, CHESTER ROGERS (9.2 yards per punt return) and QUAN BRAY (8.3) will compete for return duties on punts, which could be the tiebreaker for a roster spot. Bray also has experience on kickoffs. JJ DEFENSE Defense again haunted the Colts in 2016. They finished 30th in yards allowed and 22nd in scoring (24.5 per game). Big plays were a rarity, as their 17 takeaways ranked 26th, and the pass rush registered a middling 33 quarterback takedowns (19th)—Erik Walden led the team with 11 sacks. Efforts were made this offseason to overhaul the defense via both free agency and the draft, and the result is that the Colts could have as many as six new starters. Although they can really only improve after the calamities that were the last two seasons, the Colts defense is still a group that should not be drafted. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] When everyone is healthy, KAMAR AIKEN will, at best, be the team’s third receiver. At 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, however, he’s another big target for Luck, especially in the red zone. This is Aiken’s first season as part of an elite passing offense, and he’s flying completely under the radar. Starting him as a weekly flex in deeper leagues isn’t preposterous.
[OVERVALUED] It feels wrong to doubt FRANK GORE, who has been so consistent for so long,
but the Laundromat is crowded and Gore’s clothes are almost dry. He’s already an anomaly considering his sustained success at age 34, and with talented depth behind him a flex slot might end up being a more appropriate weekly home for Gore this year.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 264 185 457 165 78 143
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 177 126 345 138 66 87
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $44 $7 $36 $11 $1 $3
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Jason Hoffmann
F
or a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs (or even had a winning record) since 2007, Jacksonville began 2016 with plenty of optimism. A road win at Chicago brought the Jaguars’ record to 2-3, but that was followed by a nine-game losing streak that saw offensive coordinator Greg Olson and head coach Gus Bradley dismissed. Jacksonville split the final two games, but their final record of 3-13 marked the club’s sixth straight season with double-digit defeats. The offense slumped as Blake Bortles’ play regressed in a big way last year, while the defense surrendered plenty of points but showed definite signs of improvement. On the sidelines, offensive line coach Doug Marrone replaced Bradley for the final two games and had the interim tag removed shortly after the season ended. Personnel-wise, the Jaguars traded away Julius Thomas, a massive bust in two seasons with the team, and added Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye to bolster their young defense. Offensively, the draft-day selections of Leonard Fournette and runblocking behemoth Cam Robinson suggest that Jacksonville could deploy a more conservative, ground-based attack while leaning heavily on their defense to win games. While Jacksonville could struggle to climb out of the AFC South cellar, don’t be surprised if they instead flirt with their first .500 season since 2010.
[HEAD COACH] Jacksonville played hard during DOUG MARRONE’s interim stint, and he was
rewarded with the permanent coaching position. It’s Marrone’s second chance at an NFL head coaching gig following a 15-17 record during a two-year run in Buffalo. Marrone opted out of his contract following the 2014 campaign after the Bills were sold to new owners but didn’t immediately land a new coaching job, providing a hit to the self-confidence that irked both Buffalo management and their players.
The fourth-year pro again completed less than 59 percent of his attempts, and his throwing mechanics looked amiss all season. This may be make-or-break for Bortles in Jacksonville; there’s enough upside to consider him as a QB2, but be ready to cut bait if his struggles continue.
[BACKUP] This will be CHAD HENNE’s ninth season, and his fifth with the Jaguars. He has completed only 59.3 percent of his career attempts
Nathaniel Hackett served as Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator for the final nine games last season, and he’ll reprise that role in 2017. Also returning is Todd Wash, though the secondyear defensive coordinator may implement a different scheme than the one the Jaguars ran in 2016. JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] Coming off a 35-touchdown performance in 2015, BLAKE BORTLES entered last season as a popular fantasy target. He managed just 23 scoring strikes on the year, however, and only two quarterbacks committed more turnovers than Bortles, who tossed 16 interceptions—he now has 11 pick-sixes in his brief NFL career.
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] LEONARD FOURNETTE averaged
6.2 yards per carry and found the end zone 40 times in three seasons at LSU. He measures 6-foot, 228 pounds and displayed 4.51 speed at the combine—it is this size-speed combination that has drawn comparisons to the likes of Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson, among others. Fournette didn’t do much as a receiver in college, though, which may hamper his value a bit. Still, he enters his rookie season with the chance to be an immediate impact player, ranking as a low-tier No. 1 or strong No. 2 fantasy back.
[BACKUP] TJ YELDON finished 10th among
and has thrown more interceptions (63) than touchdowns (58). Henne hasn’t attempted a pass since 2014 and is more of a game manager, meaning he’s waiver wire fodder even if forced into action.
NFL backs with 50 receptions, yet he only gained 312 yards as a receiver. Yeldon gained 465 yards on the ground (down from 740 as a rookie) as well, but he saw double-digit carries just four times and his lone rushing score came in Week 1. Yeldon should dominate snaps on obvious passing downs given Fournette’s limitations as a receiver, but he’s a weak option in point-per-reception leagues and a virtual non-factor in other formats.
[THIRD] After signing a $32 million contract last March, CHRIS IVORY’s first season with
Jacksonville was a colossal disappointment. He missed five games due to injury, averaged less than 40 yards rushing per game and had as many
Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
LEONARD FOURNETTE
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@TEXANS TITANS RAVENS @JETS @STEELERS RAMS
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SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
1:00PM 1:00PM 9:30AM 1:00PM 1:00PM 4:05PM
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fumbles lost (three) as touchdowns. COREY GRANT is a straight-line runner that only carried the ball 32 times last year, but 18 came during a 122-yard showing in the finale. With Fournette entrenched as the starter, Ivory and Grant are likely battling for one spot. Whoever earns that position could hold some late-round handcuff value for Fournette owners.
[STARTER] ALLEN ROBINSON played in all 16
games this past season, and though his receptions dropped only slightly (from 80 to 73), the rest of his numbers fell off a cliff. Robinson tied for the NFL lead with 14 touchdowns and was sixth with 1,400 receiving yards in 2015, but those totals fell to six and 883, respectively, last year. He had some problems with drops, but Bortles’ regression was the primary issue for Robinson. He’s the epitome of a bounce-back candidate, a low-end WR2 on paper that could easily elevate to WR1 status if Bortles can right the ship.
[STARTER] Like Robinson, ALLEN HURNS
was a major disappointment as he, too, was unable to duplicate his 2015 success. Injuries limited Hurns to 11 appearances last year, and even when he did suit up he was passed by Marqise Lee on the target list. Hurns enters 2017 fully healthy and with plenty to prove. Still, while he’s just a season removed from a 64-1,031-10 line, Hurns may have trouble providing more than WR5 value to fantasy owners. Draft accordingly.
[THIRD] Although he’s technically third on the depth chart, MARQISE LEE was clearly the
Jags’ second-best receiver last year. His 63-851-3 line far surpassed the combined totals from his first two seasons, and he proved to be a steady (if unspectacular) weekly option with at least four receptions in 11 contests. He also added touchdowns on a kickoff return and as a passer. Lee holds minimal value in standard formats, but he’s decent depth in point-per-reception leagues. figure from this year’s draft. Westbrook excelled at Oklahoma, both as a receiver and a kick returner, culminating in being named a Heisman
RB WR QB RB WR WR
LEONARD FOURNETTE ALLEN ROBINSON BLAKE BORTLES TJ YELDON MARQUISE LEE ALLEN HURNS
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Trophy finalist. He displayed sub-4.40 speed at the combine and rarely dropped the football. However, off-the-field concerns are abundant. He was arrested twice for domestic assault in junior college, and there were reports that he was kicked out of a combine interview. We’ll see if the on-field rewards offset the risk, but for now Westbrook shouldn’t be on fantasy radars.
punt returner last year, but he fumbled four times and has only 24 catches in two injury-shortened seasons. Holdovers ARRELIOUS BENN and SHANE WYNN, along with undrafted rookie (and possible Jedi) AMBA ETTA-TAWO, are also in the mix, but none of these players are worth monitoring in 2017. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] After two years of backing up Julius Thomas, MARCEDES LEWIS returns to the top of the depth chart. Lewis was an actual fantasy asset way back in 2010, when he caught 58 passes with 10 touchdowns, but he has only 11 touchdowns combined in six seasons since. The 33-year-old is past his prime, and injuries have become an ongoing issue—he has appeared in 45 of 64 games over the last four years. Even if healthy, Lewis offers little upside and isn’t worth selecting regardless of league size. [BACKUP] MYCHAL RIVERA joins the Jaguars
after four seasons in Oakland. He could challenge Lewis for the starting role, but Rivera averaged just 9.7 yards per catch with the Raiders and caught only 18 passes in 13 games last year. BEN KOYACK is the best of the incumbents vying for the No. 2 spot. He has good hands, but his 19-161-1 line doesn’t inspire much hope for a breakout. Nothing to see here. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] JASON MYERS’ field goal percentage dropped below 80 percent last season, though five of his seven misses came from 50 yards and beyond. Myers missed three extra points in 32 tries, but this was an improvement over his NFLworst seven missed PATs in 2015. He finished 18th with 110 points last year and isn’t more than a streaming option to cover bye weeks.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 12 15 19 53 66 68
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 22 27 142
COLTS SEAHAWKS TEXANS @49ERS @TITANS
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
DEC 03 DEC 10 DEC 17 DEC 24 DEC 31
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[FIFTH] RASHAD GREENE was the primary
JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[FOURTH] Aside from Joe Mixon, DEDE WESTBROOK might be the most polarizing
@COLTS BYE BENGALS CHARGERS @BROWNS @CARDINALS
[RETURNERS] MARQUISE LEE returned a
kickoff 100 yards for a score last year, helping him average a lofty 30.3 yards per return. RASHAD GREENE, DEDE WESTBROOK and COREY GRANT are among the options to join Lee on kickoffs, and they should all be in the mix on punt returns as well. JJ DEFENSE Jacksonville finished sixth in total defense last year, which was a massive improvement considering they’d finished 24th or worse in the previous four campaigns. While they didn’t do a lot of bending, however, the Jags broke far too often in allowing 25 points per game (25th in the NFL) in 2016. Plus, only Chicago forced fewer turnovers than the Jaguars’ 13—that included an NFL-low seven interceptions. The defense tied for 19th in sacks (33) and failed to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, but the hope is a change to a more traditional 4-3 defense combined with the Calais Campbell signing will generate a steadier pass rush. Although they’re not yet a starting option, Jacksonville’s defense could become one sometime in 2017. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] During Marrone’s tenure in Buffalo, with Nathaniel Hackett calling the shots, running back Fred Jackson was the team’s leading receiver. This could mean good things for TJ YELDON, who’s clearly the best receiving back on the Jaguars roster. Having Fournette on early downs should help keep Yeldon fresh, which makes him an inviting late-round target in pointper-reception formats.
[OVERVALUED] Jacksonville’s potential shift to a more run-oriented offense would have obvious repercussions to the passing game, with MARQISE LEE standing to lose the most value in the process. He isn’t a preferred red-zone option and doesn’t have the big-play capabilities that Robinson (or even Hurns) possesses, so any loss in targets could drop Lee out of the picture in most standard fantasy formats.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 209 232 326 86 115 113
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 184 151 246 63 74 73
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $29 $26 $3 $1 $1 $1
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Zach Greubel
C
arried by defense, Kansas City powered their way to a 12-4 record in 2016. After a rocky 2-2 start, the Chiefs went on a five-game winning streak, including key road wins over the Raiders, Colts and Panthers. They swept each of the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers en route to the AFC West crown and a No. 2 playoff seed. Ultimately, though, the Chiefs faltered in the postseason. While the defense held its ground, the Chiefs sputtered on offense in a tough 1816 loss to the Steelers in the Divisional Round. Pittsburgh proved to be Kansas City’s kryptonite last year, beating them once in the regular season and again in the playoffs
With the misfortune of playing in arguably the NFL’s toughest division, the Chiefs knew they couldn’t afford to take a step back during the offseason. They made a couple tough personnel decisions, releasing Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Maclin, and Dontari Poe signed in Atlanta, but the team otherwise returns intact. Although GM John Dorsey did little in free agency, the Chiefs, perhaps feeling they’d gone as far as Alex Smith could take them, swung for the fences with first-round pick Patrick Mahomes. It was done with an eye toward the future. In the present, Kansas City will be challenged to defend their AFC West banner.
[HEAD COACH] Since joining the Chiefs in 2013, ANDY REID has led his squad to a 43-21
record and three postseason trips. He has yet to witness a losing season in Kansas City, and the Chiefs’ 12-4 record in 2016 was Reid’s best since 2004 when he was with the Eagles. Among current head coaches, Reid is second in career wins—his 173 victories trail only New England’s Bill Belichick (237). Under the erudite supervision of Reid, the Chiefs remain a top contender.
with three playoff appearances and two Pro Bowl nods. His on-field success does not translate to the fantasy world, however, where his cautious approach leads to disappointing numbers. Smith is a weak No. 2 fantasy quarterback with minimal upside.
Quarterbacks coach Matt Nagy was named the new offensive coordinator in mid-February, taking over for Brad Childress, who was elevated to assistant head coach. Bob Sutton enters his fifth season as the coordinator of Kansas City’s stalwart defense. JJ QUARTERBACKS [STARTER] ALEX SMITH’s days as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback are officially numbered after Kansas City paid a hefty price to draft Patrick Mahomes—although that number is unlikely to hit zero before 2018. Smith’s shortcomings are apparent, including his reluctance to throw the deep ball, but no one can deny that he wins. He’s 41-20 in four seasons as Kansas City’s starter
into duty in 2017, but his real value is reserved for those in dynasty leagues. JJ RUNNING BACKS
[STARTER] SPENCER WARE did an admirable
job filling in for Jamaal Charles last year. Still, while Ware was a steady performer he struggled to make big plays, tallying just three runs of 20 yards or more among his 214 carries. He also had some trouble with ball security. On the plus side, the LSU product proved dangerous as a receiver, averaging 13.5 yards per catch. As was the case at quarterback, though, the Chiefs drafted a rookie that could eventually supplant the current starter. Ware fits as a midrange RB2, but his job security is a bit worrisome. [BACKUP] Third-round pick KAREEM HUNT
[BACKUP] Selected 10th overall, PATRICK MAHOMES has perhaps the most physical talent
of any quarterback in this year’s draft class, headlined by elite arm strength. He developed some bad habits during his gunslinger days at Texas Tech, however, and the prevailing thought is that he’ll need some time to put the Air Raid offense in the past and embrace the pro system. There would be a natural intrigue if Mahomes is pressed
is primed to at least take over a backup role and poses a viable threat to Ware for playing time. Hunt has good vision and the power to churn out tough yards. He can make plays in the passing game as well, and despite less-than-ideal speed is legitimately dangerous in the open field. Starting off, Hunt is more of a fourth or fifth option, but his upside is appealing.
Photo: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACHES
TRAVIS KELCE
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@PATRIOTS EAGLES @CHARGERS WASHINGTON @TEXANS STEELERS
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[THIRD] Holdover CHARCANDRICK WEST (88-293-1 in ‘16) and veteran CJ SPILLER are likely competing for one spot. Spiller, a former 1,000-yard back, reportedly looked rejuvenated during OTAs, but he’ll need to stay healthy through camp after missing significant time over the past three seasons due to injury. West generated some buzz back in 2015 but looked ordinary backing up Ware last year. Still, he’s familiar with the offense, which is something neither Hunt nor Spiller can claim.
JJ WIDE RECEIVERS [STARTER] With Maclin gone, CHRIS CONLEY should get first crack at stepping into the No. 1 role. The third-year wideout has big-time speed, though with Smith avoiding the deep ball like vegetarians avoid meat, that hasn’t translated into production (the longest of his 44 receptions last season covered 39 yards). Despite his nominal ascent, Conley still sits behind Kelce and Hill in the pecking order, so don’t expect a huge breakout. That said; you can take a chance on Conley late based on upside. [STARTER] ALBERT WILSON started most of
2015 opposite Maclin, and he seems the likeliest option to get the nod in Week 1, though his stocky frame (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) is a better fit for the slot. Wilson’s production has been marginal, and it is debatable how much higher the former undrafted free-agent’s ceiling is. His grip on the job is tenuous at best, and even if Wilson holds onto it through camp his fantasy appeal is nil.
[THIRD] No matter who lines up outside, TYREEK HILL is the club’s most dangerous
receiver by a wide margin. Hill is an all-around football player, totaling 593 yards receiving, 267 rushing and 976 via returns as a rookie. He’ll continue lining up all over the field to exploit matchups and get the ball in his hands with space to maneuver—the question is how much can the Chiefs ask of his 185-pound frame? A threat to score every time he touches the ball, Hill is a strong third fantasy wideout with tangible upside.
[FOURTH] If you’re looking for a dark horse, DEMARCUS ROBINSON might be your guy. His
RB TE WR RB QB WR
SPENCER WARE TRAVIS KELCE TYREEK HILL KAREEM HUNT ALEX SMITH CHRIS CONLEY
@RAIDERS BRONCOS @COWBOYS BYE @GIANTS BILLS
THU. OCT 19 MON. OCT 30 SUN. NOV 05
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[FIFTH] Fourth-year pro DE’ANTHONY THOMAS and rookie JEHU CHESSON are the favorites
to round out Kansas City’s receiving corps. While Thomas has been used primarily as a returner, Hill’s emergence moved him to the side; this may be the Oregon product’s last chance to make an impact. Chesson is a big target (6-foot-3, 204 pounds) with the versatility to line up in multiple spots, but he’s a body catcher and subpar route runner. Although a safe bet to make the team, Chesson looks to be a work in progress. JJ TIGHT ENDS [STARTER] You can count on one finger how many tight ends are superior to TRAVIS KELCE (that’s Rob Gronkowski for the layman). Kelce led his team in targets (117), catches (85) and yards (1,125) in 2016 and was an invaluable asset on short-to-intermediate passes—Smith’s favorite kind. At 6-foot-5, 260 pounds, Kelce is not only a big threat near the end zone, but he’s surprisingly quick and able to help stretch the field. Most tight ends don’t deserve early-round consideration, but Kelce, the Chiefs’ No. 1 target, absolutely does.
[BACKUP] DEMETRIUS HARRIS should maintain his role as Kelce’s primary backup, while GAVIN ESCOBAR joins the Chiefs after four years with the Cowboys. They might vulture a touchdown or two, but Harris and Escobar are no threat to Kelce as long as he is healthy. Both players can be ignored for fantasy purposes.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
Chiefs are no strangers to the scoreboard. They find ways to put up points, thanks in large to CAIRO SANTOS. Santos was one of the league’s most accurate kickers in 2016, making 31 of his 35 FGAs (88.6 percent), and his 129 points were good for a sixth-place finish. He’s a viable weekly starting option.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 16 3 29 42 25 78
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 50 51 53 102
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SAT. DEC 16 SUN. DEC 24 SUN. DEC 31
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athleticism and playmaking ability were never utilized last season when the then-rookie was used exclusively on special teams. He has better size and speed than Wilson, though, and after a full season of learning the offense Robison could be ready to step up. While he isn’t worth drafting you should file his name away.
[KICKER] Despite their lack of big plays, the
@JETS RAIDERS CHARGERS DOLPHINS @BRONCOS
[RETURNERS] Explosive playmaker TYREEK HILL became the first rookie since Gale Sayers
in 1951 to score on a run, catch, kick return and punt return in the same season. He’s as dangerous as they come. They could also use DE’ANTHONY THOMAS to return kicks now and then to reduce Hill’s workload. JJ DEFENSE Defense was the name of the game for Kansas City in 2016, as it has been since Andy Reid and Bob Sutton arrived in 2013. The Chiefs led the NFL in takeaways (33) and turnover differential (plus-16; tied with Oakland), and they also topped the league with five defensive touchdowns—two by Eric Berry. In addition, Kansas City logged its fourth consecutive topseven finish in points allowed per game (19.4); they have never yielded more than 20 points per contest during that span. Their one weakness was rushing the passer, where their 28 sacks finished a matching 28th in the NFL. Assuming newly acquired veteran Bennie Logan can fill the sizable hole of Dontari Poe’s departure the Chiefs should be a top-10 fantasy defense. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] He’s not the biggest name in this year’s vastly talented rookie running back class, but KAREEM HUNT could be a name to remember by season’s end. Hunt poses a legitimate threat to Spencer Ware. His playmaking ability, elusiveness and receiving prowess, among other skills, threaten Ware’s playing time and may be too much to keep Hunt on the sideline. [OVERVALUED] SPENCER WARE will be re-
ceiving some positive recency bias this offseason, which may cause some to forget that the Chiefs even drafted Hunt. Ware will open as the Chiefs’ top back, but Hunt has more big-play ability and is a capable receiver, which could decrease Ware’s worth in point-per-reception formats. Handcuffing Hunt with Ware is sensible strategy.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 193 209 188 115 255 97
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 158 129 128 103 194 58
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $25 $18 $7 $2 $1 $1
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Herija C. Green
U
p 24-3 midway through the third quarter of a Week 1 matchup in Kansas City, the Chargers fell apart in spectacular fashion and lost in overtime. It set the tone for one of the most disappointing seasons in the team’s history as the Bolts routinely blew second-half leads to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. After the city of San Diego rejected the club’s stadium measure the Chargers would lose six of their final seven amid a spate of major injuries. Consecutive last-place finishes closed the book on the Mike McCoy era and also the franchise’s time in San Diego.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] ANTHONY LYNN, 48, has
nearly two decades of experience as a coach, but until he took over for Greg Roman last year he’d never even been a coordinator at any level, much less the man in charge. It was his work in relief of Roman, guiding a Bills team short on playmakers to 27 points per game in 13 weeks on the job, which opened eyes around the league. Still, it’ll be a daunting task for Lynn, who’ll be asked to guide the franchise through a tumultuous time.
tions with 21, including some critical miscues, and put the ball on the ground nine times—his most since 2012. Still, considering his durability and high statistical floor, Rivers is an ideal No. 2 fantasy signal-caller. [BACKUP] KELLEN CLEMENS has attempted
just 10 passes in three seasons behind Rivers, but the 12th-year pro opted to re-sign for the second
Ken Whisenhunt was retained as offensive coordinator, offering some continuity on that side of the ball. Defensively, deposed Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley was named the new coordinator, a role he filled with distinction in Seattle from 2009-12. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] It doesn’t seem to matter how many
playmakers you subtract from the Chargers’ offense, PHILIP RIVERS simply finds ways to put up numbers. Minus Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead from Week 2 on, Rivers still finished fifth in the NFL in yards passing (4,386) and fourth in touchdowns (33). On the downside, the veteran comfortably led the league in intercep-
offseason in a row. He has 21 starts under his belt, the last coming in 2013, and should be serviceable if pressed into action. Of course, considering Rivers has started every game for 11 straight years, Clemens is likely to spend 2017 on the sidelines. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Coming off a disappointing rookie campaign, MELVIN GORDON quickly showed
KEENAN ALLEN
that anyone trying to label him a bust was woefully premature. The former Badger emerged as a dual threat and entered play in Week 14 on pace for 1,323 rushing yards, 559 receiving yards and 16 total touchdowns. Unfortunately, Gordon’s leg got rolled up trying to recover a fumble, and he missed the final three-plus games. Still, Gordon enters 2017 as a legitimate three-down back, a rarity in the modern NFL, and he should benefit from Lynn’s expertise. Gordon is a No. 1 fantasy back and legitimate first-round selection.
[BACKUP] ANDRE WILLIAMS, the Giants’ leading rusher as a rookie in 2014, spent most of last season on the practice squad until injuries earned him a Week 17 promotion. He made the most of it, gaining 87 yards on 18 carries and positioning himself to be the primary early-down backup. Williams has good power and can run inside but is limited in other areas, including as a receiver. If he’s the clear No. 2 back he has handcuff appeal. If not, stay away.
[THIRD] Injuries put BRANDEN OLIVER on the
map in 2014 when he ably filled in for then-starter Ryan Matthews. He missed half of ‘15 with a toe injury and all of last year with a torn Achilles’, however, and his future is in doubt. He’ll compete with versatile speedster KENJON BARNER,
Photo: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
On Jan. 12, Dean Spanos announced the team would move to Los Angeles. A day later, GM Tom Telesco named former Bills offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn as the new head coach. Despite the change, the Chargers were quiet in free agency with Russell Okung the only signing of note. They also franchised Melvin Ingram and bolstered their offense via the draft with the dynamic Mike Williams and Forrest Lamp. Among the departed were Danny Woodhead, Manti Te’o, Stevie Johnson (released) and Brandon Flowers (released). Set to play their home games in the intimate StubHub Center in 2017, the Chargers face an uphill climb out of the cellar in a loaded AFC West.
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@BRONCOS DOLPHINS CHIEFS EAGLES @GIANTS @RAIDERS
MON. SEP 11 SUN. SEP 17 SUN. SEP 24 SUN. OCT 01 SUN. OCT 08 SUN. OCT 15
10:20PM 4:05PM 4:25PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 4:25PM
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who was effective in limited opportunities for the Eagles last season, for third-down duties. KENNETH FARROW showed little when pressed into action last December but is an option should Oliver and/or Barner flop. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] If KEENAN ALLEN could stay
healthy his name might be mentioned among the NFL’s best. He has exceptional hands, good size, runs precise routes, works the entire field and can win in traffic. Unfortunately, Allen has yet to play a full 16-game schedule and has appeared in just nine games combined over the last two years with his 2016 coming to an end in Week 1 due to a torn ACL. Still just 25, Allen should be fully recovered come September. Although he has WR1 talent, durability woes demand he be drafted as a low-end WR2.
[STARTER] An 80-yard touchdown in the final
week of the 2015 season raised eyebrows, but few anticipated TYRELL WILLIAMS’ dramatic ascent in Year 2. While Williams (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) had the physical credentials, he was lacking in experience against big-time talent having played collegiately at DII Western Oregon. And yet, when injuries thinned the receiving ranks, Williams stepped in and became the club’s steadiest option on the outside. He earned the right to start in Week 1 even though the seventh overall pick looms on the horizon. That makes Williams a risk/reward fourth option.
[THIRD] TRAVIS BENJAMIN parlayed a breakout 2015 with Cleveland into a four-year, $24 million deal from the Chargers. He started strong—28 catches for 394 yards through five games—but suffered a sprained PCL in Week 6 and did little the rest of the way. He had arthroscopic knee surgery to repair the damage in January. The dynamic has changed, however, and Benjamin could be squeezed for opportunities even though he’s the most natural option in the slot. At best, Benjamin is a late-round flier. [FOURTH] Selected seventh overall, MIKE WILLIAMS was considered by many scouts to
RB WR WR QB TE WR TE
MELVIN GORDON KEENAN ALLEN TYRELL WILLIAMS PHILIP RIVERS HUNTER HENRY MIKE WILLIAMS ANTONIO GATES
BRONCOS @PATRIOTS BYE @JAGUARS BILLS @COWBOYS
SUN. OCT 22 SUN. OCT 29
4:25PM 1:00PM
SUN. NOV 12 SUN. NOV 19 THU. NOV 23
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[FIFTH] That DONTRELLE INMAN started all
16 games a season ago and is listed fifth speaks to Los Angeles’ depth at the position. He ran hot and cold early before becoming a steady, if unspectacular, producer (58-810-4). If everyone is healthy, Inman doesn’t figure to see many snaps. Of course, with this group that’s a big “if.” While not worth drafting, Inman is someone to watch if he’s forced into action. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] ANTONIO GATES remains the
starter entering 2017, but he’s clearly nearing the end of the road. The 6-foot-4, 255-pounder is still a threat in the red zone (seven TDs last season) and on third downs, but his days of stressing defenses down the field has passed. Gates still has a little juice left in the tank and could hold value as a middling reserve.
[BACKUP] Although Gates is winding down, HUNTER HENRY looks ready to maintain the
high level of play at the position well into the future. As a rookie, Henry logged nine catches for 133 yards when Gates was hurt, and he went on to score in eight of his final 12 games. The smart money says this is the year the two of them flip their production with Henry becoming the one to own in fantasy as a low-end TE1.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] JOSH LAMBO’s second NFL campaign was a case of statistical déjà vu: he went an identical 26-for-32 (81.3 percent) on field goals and missed another four PATs, albeit on 14 more attempts. Don’t get caught up on the Bolts’ won-loss record, they score points and lots of them. With better health offensively, Lambo
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 10 41 78 115 124 125
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SAT. DEC 16 SUN. DEC 24 SUN. DEC 31
4:05PM 4:05PM 8:25PM 1:00PM 4:25PM
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
be the best receiver available in this year’s draft. At 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, Williams has the size and strength to win one-on-one matchups from Day 1. His speed and wingspan should cause additional trouble for defensive backs. The Clemson product is a bit raw as a route runner, but the Chargers don’t need him to be a star right away. He’s someone you can roll the dice on as your WR5 with upside.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 5 32 46 11 11 47 17
BROWNS WASHINGTON @CHIEFS @JETS RAIDERS
could see enough action to warrant weekly starter consideration in most leagues.
[RETURNERS] Los Angeles has several options in the return game, including holdovers ISAIAH BURSE, the club’s leader in punt and kickoff return yardage last year, and TRAVIS BENJAMIN, who took three punts to the house while with Cleveland. Free-agent addition KENJON BARNER could also be a factor here.
JJ DEFENSE Despite strong contributions from newcomers Casey Hayward (NFL-high seven INTs) and Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss), the Chargers somehow regressed in scoring defense, allowing 26.4 points per game (29th in the NFL). They did improve in other areas, including takeaways, where they jumped from 24th to fourth, and rushing the passer—their 35 sacks tied for 14th, up from 24th a season ago. Other than investing a pair of mid-round picks on DBs Desmond King and Rayshawn Jenkins, the Bolts did nothing to address the defense, so they’ll be hoping a full season from Bosa leads to more improvement. They’re not a smart draft-day selection. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Los Angeles invested draft picks and free-agent dollars into fixing their offensive line. The expected beneficiary is Melvin Gordon, but he hasn’t made it through a full season yet. If the injury bug bites again ANDRE WILLIAMS might step into an attractive situation. Williams looked capable in a Week 17 showcase and could break camp as Gordon’s top backup. Draft accordingly.
[OVERVALUED] Fantasy owners love rookies. And when you’re the second receiver taken, like MIKE WILLIAMS was, on a team with a legitimate quarterback, the hype machine will get rolling. Perhaps it rolls too fast. Williams isn’t joining a team that’s short on receiving talent, particularly if everyone is healthy. He’s an intriguing flier. Just don’t draft him as more than that.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 275 183 160 372 157 156 128
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 232 113 108 266 105 106 78
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $43 $6 $4 $12 $4 $3 $2
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LOS ANGELES RAMS Matt Wilson
A
re they still excited about having NFL football back in Los Angeles? The Rams’ 2016 return to the City of Angels after a 21-year absence wasn’t a happy homecoming. They were downright terrible. While a talented defense that underachieved deserves plenty of blame for the 4-12 record and third-place finish in the NFC West, a completely inept Case Keenum/Jared Goff-led offense that ranked dead last in both yardage and scoring (14 points per game) severely crippled the Rams’ ability to compete. The team canned fifth-year head coach Jeff Fisher after a demoralizing 42-14 loss to the Falcons in Week 14 that sparked Todd Gurley’s scathing “middle-school operation” remark. GM Les Snead was a surprise survivor of ownership’s offseason housecleaning. With Fisher gone, Snead, entering his sixth season, now owns the roster. Acting with urgency, he replaced defensiveminded Fisher with offensive-minded Sean McVay. In free agency, Snead franchised Trumaine Johnson and spent big money for roster upgrades, which included Andrew Whitworth, Robert Woods and Connor Barwin. Despite not having a first-round pick, Snead still drafted a pair of likely Week 1 contributors: Cooper Kupp and John Johnson. McVay will need time to try to fix this mess. The defense could rebound quickly, but an offense that looks only marginally better figures to keep the Rams well out of playoff contention in 2017.
[HEAD COACH] Former Washington offensive coordinator SEAN MCVAY, the youngest head-
coaching hire in modern NFL history at 31, will try to resurrect a franchise that hasn’t posted a winning record since 2003. McVay’s top-two priorities: build a productive offense and develop Jared Goff, last year’s No. 1 overall pick. This past season McVay directed a Washington offense that finished third overall and 12th in scoring, and he’s credited with molding 2012 fourth-rounder Kirk Cousins into a solid starter.
five scores versus seven picks. The pocket passer also amassed a tiny 8-16-1 rushing line. Goff remains a project, but the Rams have him on a long leash. While Goff should benefit from roster and scheme changes, and an offensive-minded coaching staff, he’s not worth drafting outside of the deepest of leagues.
[BACKUP] While SEAN MANNION has good arm strength and accuracy, he won’t see much action unless Goff gets hurt or totally implodes. The
It’s no surprise that McVay will call the plays for his aggressive pass-heavy West Coast-based scheme, so new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will focus on game planning and coaching up Goff. Respected new defensive boss Wade Phillips inherits plenty of talent to plug into his attacking 3-4 system.
[BACKUP] Free-agent pickup LANCE DUNBAR
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] JARED GOFF ’s development went
slower than expected last season. The first of his seven starts didn’t come until Week 11, and Goff was still painfully unprepared. With little help from a patchwork offensive line and a limited receiver corps, Goff threw for just 1,089 yards and
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] Supremely talented TODD GURLEY, constantly swallowed up by defenses that ignored an impotent passing attack, couldn’t live up to massive expectations. While Gurley’s numbers were disappointing—885 yards and six touchdowns on 278 carries, including just two of 20 yards or more, and 43 catches for 327 yards—he’ll remain the centerpiece of the offense. The scheme changes and line upgrades can only help, and Goff should play competently enough to keep the offense afloat. However, Gurley, who struggles with his blocking, figures to play fewer snaps in passing situations. Draft him as a low-end RB1.
third-year pro made just one mop-up appearance last year, connecting on three of his six throws for 19 yards and a pick. Even if Mannion were to make some fill-in starts, there’d be no reason for fantasy owners to consider adding him.
could handle a majority of the third-down/ change-of-pace duties. Dunbar fell out of favor with the Cowboys last year, posting just 153 yards on 25 total touches. During an injury shortened 2015 (four games played), however, Dunbar averaged 70.5 combined yards per contest before tearing an ACL. Still, if Gurley goes down with an injury, however, don’t expect the 5-foot-8, 195-pound Dunbar to operate as a high-volume back. He’s potential depth in pointper-reception leagues.
Photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
JARED GOFF
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WK.1 WK.2 WK.3 WK.4 WK.5 WK.6
COLTS WASHINGTON @49ERS @COWBOYS SEAHAWKS @JAGUARS
SUN. SUN. THU. SUN. SUN. SUN.
SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 21 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
4:05PM 4:25PM 8:25PM 1:00PM 4:05PM 4:05PM
WK.7 WK.8 WK.9 WK.10 WK.11 WK.12
[THIRD] Early-down thumper MALCOLM BROWN failed to impress in limited duty, car-
rying 18 times for 39 yards and catching three balls for 46 yards. The third-year pro has just 26 touches on his NFL résumé. AARON GREEN spent most of last year on the practice squad after he parlayed 445 carries into 2,426 yards and 20 touchdowns at TCU. Neither player will be fantasy relevant. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Jack-of-all-trades TAVON AUSTIN compiled career highs in catches (58) and receiving yards (509) last year. Conversely, his rushing numbers fell from 52-434 in 2015 down to 28-159—his TDs also dropped from nine to four. The team wants to use him in a vertical role similar to what DeSean Jackson did for McVay in Washington. Although Austin has blazing speed, it’s hard to envision the 5-foot-8, 176-pound gadget guy making a quick leap to viable deep threat. Assuming there are no issues with Austin’s surgically repaired wrist, he looks like a very shaky fantasy WR5. [STARTER] With Austin cast as “D-Jax 2.0,” ROBERT WOODS is set to play “Pierre Garcon.”
Woods, a West Coast possession wideout cut from the same cloth as Garcon, amassed 51 catches for 613 yards in 13 games while playing through a knee injury during his final season with the Bills. The former USC standout, relegated to mediocre passing attacks during his four years in Buffalo, has never caught more than 65 balls in a season. Since Austin may struggle as a downfield producer, however, Woods has the look of an intriguing late-round bargain with upside in point-per-reception formats. [THIRD] Third-rounder COOPER KUPP, who
isn’t big enough (6-foot-2, 198 pounds) or athletic enough (4.62 speed) to succeed outside consistently, operated exclusively as a slot guy in Eastern Washington’s spread attack. He compiled a whopping 428 catches as a four-year starter and has the hands and toughness to work underneath. Assuming Kupp holds off all competition, he could be targeted heavily in a receiver corps that lacks a true top option. Kupp isn’t worth drafting, but remember the name.
RB QB WR WR TE
TODD GURLEY JARED GOFF TAVON AUSTIN ROBERT WOODS TYLER HIGBEE
CARDINALS BYE @GIANTS TEXANS @VIKINGS SAINTS
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Cooper, a 2016 fourth-round selection, but he struggled to stay healthy as a rookie, compiling just 14 receptions for 106 yards in 10 games. He has a similar skill set to Kupp but is shiftier after the catch. Cooper is only worth watching if he takes over in the slot.
[FIFTH] Rookie JOSH REYNOLDS, respected for his field-stretching speed, racked up 164 catches as a three-year starter in Texas A&M’s spread attack. He has good ball skills but must get stronger physically. Special-teamer BRADLEY MARQUEZ has 16 catches in two seasons. MIKE THOMAS, a 2016 sixth-rounder, logged three receptions in very limited action. This group lacks fantasy usefulness.
JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] McVay loves to use tight ends— Washington topped the NFL in receiving yards from tight ends last season—and he plans to utilize sure-handed TYLER HIGBEE. Higbee, boasting the speed, athleticism and tackle-breaking ability to make plays in the passing game, should easily top the 11-85-1 line that he posted as a rookie. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound Higbee is a work in progress as a blocker, but that issue shouldn’t limit him in any meaningful way. A strong preseason showing could make Higbee a sleeper fantasy TE2 candidate. Watch him closely. [BACKUP] GERALD EVERETT, the first draft choice of the McVay Era, is undersized at 6-foot-3, 227 pounds, but he has 4.62 speed and great ball skills. He didn’t start playing football until his senior year in high school, however, and coming from South Alabama he could be a bit raw. TEMARRICK HEMINGWAY, a long-term project, was active for eight games as a rookie but didn’t catch any passes. McVay made regular use of three-tight end sets at Washington; clearly, though, Everett is the one with potential.
[KICKER] GREG ZUERLEIN has been known more for his inaccuracy than his big leg in recent years. After connecting on a dismal 66.7 percent of his FGAs in 2015, Zuerlein converted a respectable 86.4 percent last season (19 of 22)
POSITION RANK (p.31) 9 27 72 81 27
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 16
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DEC 03 DEC 10 DEC 17 DEC 24 DEC 31
4:25PM 4:25PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 4:25PM
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[FOURTH] If Kupp isn’t ready, PHAROH COOPER is the likely next man up. The Rams like
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
@CARDINALS EAGLES @SEAHAWKS @TITANS 49ERS
and all 23 PATs to finish with 80 points, which ranked 30th among all kickers. Zuerlein should remain off of fantasy radars until the league-worst Rams offense shows major improvement. [RETURNERS] TAVON AUSTIN has handled
the punt returner duties for four straight years and will likely continue to do so. Prior to 2016, Austin had taken one punt to the house three seasons in a row. PHAROH COOPER and COOPER KUPP will battle to replace Benny Cunningham as the main kickoff returner.
JJ DEFENSE Even a talented unit like the Rams can struggle and lose interest with no support from an anemic offense. They dropped from 13th to 23rd in points allowed (24.6 per game), 11th to 24th in sacks (31) and ninth to 23rd (tied) in takeaways (18). Defensive guru Wade Phillips, known for engineering quick turnarounds, will direct what should be a painless transition from a 4-3 scheme to his trademark 3-4 system. Los Angeles hopes a now-healthy Robert Quinn (4.0 sacks), who moves to linebacker, and Connor Barwin (5.0 sacks with the Eagles) can help Aaron Donald (team-high 8.0 sacks) jumpstart the pass rush. Kayvon Webster and rookie John Johnson bolster the secondary. The undervalued Rams are a strong bounce-back candidate. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Currently seated atop the depth chart, TYLER HIGBEE is an interesting breakout candidate. Tight ends are featured heavily in Sean McVay’s offense, and work-in-progress Jared Goff desperately needs a go-to guy. The Rams aren’t exactly loaded with dominant players at wideout, and rookie Gerald Everett may not contribute right away. A nice preseason could boost Higbee into TE2 territory.
[OVERVALUED] For lack of better options, the Rams are expected to use TAVON AUSTIN as a deep threat. Although Austin possesses big-play jets, the diminutive wideout has averaged just 9.1 yards per catch in his career. DeSean Jackson, who stretched defenses in Washington, averaged 17.9 yards per reception last season. It’s doubtful that Austin quickly develops into a productive long-ball specialist.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 231 222 104 94 100
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 188 158 70 56 64
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $35 $1 $1
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MIAMI DOLPHINS Keith Hernandez
A
dam Gase’s first season as a head coach got off to a rough 1-4 start, beginning with a tough defeat in Seattle, but the Dolphins quickly turned their fortunes around by rattling off six straight victories. They finished on a 9-2 run and earned their first winning record since 2008 with a Week 15 win over the rival Jets. The following week they clinched a playoff berth and finished second in the AFC East with a 10-6 record. Although Miami’s shortcomings (backup QB, weak defense) were exposed in the AFC Wild Card loss to the Steelers, 3012, it was a positive step in Gase’s first year at the helm. As one might expect after a successful season that culminated in the team’s first postseason appearance in almost a decade, the Dolphins were content not making too many changes in the offseason. While trimming some fat—they let go of Branden Albert (trade), Mario Williams, Earl Mitchell and Dion Jordan—the Dolphins focused more on retaining key contributors like Kenny Stills, Kiko Alonso and Reshad Jones. Miami also traded for Jacksonville’s Julius Thomas after losing Dion Sims in free agency. It certainly won’t be easy, but Miami has the weapons in place to potentially stop New England’s eight-year run as division champs.
[HEAD COACH] ADAM GASE figures to buck
the trend of frequent coaching turnover in Miami. He started his NFL career as a scouting assistant for the Lions before graduating to quarterbacks coach, offensive assistant and then offensive coordinator down the road. Gase had three years of coordinator experience, including two with the Broncos and their record-setting offense in 2013, before joining Miami. He’s one of the better bright young offensive minds in the game and has developed a reputation for being a quarterback whisperer.
an all-around quarterback under Gase’s tutelage. He’s coming off a torn ACL that limited him to 13 games last year but should be fully healthy in time for Week 1. Tannehill should grow in Year 2 of this offensive system, but until further notice he’s a low-end QB2.
[BACKUP] Before starting three games for an injured Tannehill in ‘16, MATT MOORE hadn’t
On offense the Dolphins will maintain continuity with coordinator Clyde Christensen in the role for the second straight year. Meanwhile, Miami promoted linebackers coach Matt Burke to DC after Vance Joseph departed for the head coaching gig in Denver. JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] Looking at RYAN TANNEHILL’s 2016 season from a purely statistical standpoint would lead many to believe it was the worst of his five NFL campaigns. Look closer, however, and you’ll see Tannehill put up career highs in completion percentage (67.1) and yards per attempt (7.7), and he showed signs of maturing into
on their ground game, rendering Moore a fantasy non-factor in nearly all leagues. JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] Even though Gase’s specialty is quarterbacks, it’s no secret this offense will run through JAY AJAYI. Perhaps most impressive about his ‘16 breakout was the fact that he didn’t play in the opener and didn’t really get going until a 204-yard performance in Week 6. While his final line was impressive (260-1,272-8), his weekto-week production fluctuated greatly, topping 200 yards three times but only surpassing 80 in one other game; and although he held up physically last season, Ajayi entered the NFL with significant concerns about his knee. Despite that, he will be a hot commodity as a solid RB1. [BACKUP] As long as Ajayi stays healthy, DAMIEN WILLIAMS will basically be fight-
taken meaningful snaps since making 12 starts back in 2011, his first season in Miami. Primarily a game-manager type, the 33-year-old was serviceable with eight TDs and three interceptions in 87 attempts down the stretch. If he’s forced into action again, expect the ‘Phins to rely mostly
ing for scraps. The fourth-year pro contributes in multiple areas, including as a receiver out of the backfield (he has 65 career receptions, five of which went for touchdowns) and on special teams, but he hasn’t shown much as a pure runner: 87 lifetime carries, 296 yards (3.4 YPC) and three scores. Williams certainly wouldn’t be an exciting selection, but he’s currently the best handcuff option for Ajayi owners.
Photo: Morris Fostoff
JJ COACH
RYAN TANNEHILL AND JAY AJAYI
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WK.1 WK.2 WK.3 WK.4 WK.5 WK.6
BUCCANEERS @CHARGERS @JETS SAINTS TITANS @FALCONS
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
1:00PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 9:30AM 1:00PM 1:00PM
WK.7 WK.8 WK.9 WK.10 WK.11 WK.12
[THIRD] Despite having only 33 attempts in his rookie season, KENYAN DRAKE’s 5.4 yards
per carry led the Dolphins. A third-round pick last year, Drake is probably the best pure athlete in Miami’s backfield, and he was a 100-meter high school champion in Georgia. His speed and explosiveness make him a potentially versatile weapon out of the backfield, but his freelancing style hasn’t endeared him to Gase yet. Still, Drake is one to watch on the waiver wire. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] Miami is still waiting for 2015 firstrounder DEVANTE PARKER to deliver on high
expectations, and 2017 could be the year. Injuries, inconsistency and immaturity have all kept Parker from emerging as a legitimate No. 1 threat on the outside, but he has the size (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) and speed to work downfield and outfight DBs for the ball. After posting 56 catches (90 targets) for 744 yards and four touchdowns last year, Parker should be available in the later rounds and could be an undervalued sleeper with starter upside.
[STARTER] KENNY STILLS was smart to re-up
in Miami: he’s in the prime of his career (25 years old) and had one of his most productive seasons in ‘16 (42-726-9). The former Sooner rebounded from a dismal first year with the club and was the Dolphins’ most consistent deep threat, leading the club in receiving scores. While he may struggle to match the career-high nine TDs, Stills’ team-leading 17.3 yards per catch shouldn’t be ignored. He’ll remain a useful WR5 type with more value in standard-scoring leagues.
[THIRD] As the slot receiver, JARVIS LANDRY
is listed third on the depth chart, but there’s no question he’s the Dolphins’ top target. In three NFL seasons, the LSU product has averaged 96 receptions, 1,017 yards and four touchdowns per year—his lack of red-zone production being his only real drawback. Landry helped offset that last season, though, with 593 yards after the catch (most among WRs). In Year 2 of Gase’s system, the arrow continues to point up for Landry, and his high statistical floor makes him a steady WR2 in standard leagues and a legit WR1 in point-perreception formats.
RB WR WR WR TE QB
JAY AJAYI JARVIS LANDRY DEVANTE PARKER KENNY STILLS JULIUS THOMAS RYAN TANNEHILL
JETS @RAVENS RAIDERS @PANTHERS BYE @PATRIOTS
SUN. OCT 22 THU. OCT 26 SUN. NOV 05 MON. NOV 13
1:00PM 8:25PM 8:30PM 8:30PM
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[FOURTH] A third-rounder last season, LEONTE CARROO disappointed in his rookie year with
just three catches for 29 yards and a score in 14 games. His draft pedigree likely ensures him a roster spot, but the team wants to see the 217-pounder put his toughness and plus hands to work in contested situations as he offers a different skill set than the other receivers. Barring a massive statistical leap, the 23-year-old is unlikely to have any fantasy appeal in 2017.
[FIFTH] It’s all about speed with the 5-foot-7, 172-pound JAKEEM GRANT. That didn’t trans-
late to any receptions as a rookie, but Grant is likely to stick because of his game-changing abilities in the return game. Wiry seventh-rounder ISAIAH FORD needs to add muscle and seems a likely candidate for the practice squad. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] JULIUS THOMAS burst onto the
scene in 2013 with 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns with the Broncos. He scored a dozen more times in ‘14 and parleyed that into big free-agent dollars. He was a massive bust in Jacksonville, however, partially due to the scheme but mainly because of injuries. While Thomas has yet to play a full season, the track record for success is there, and Miami is hoping a reunion with Gase, his OC with the Broncos, reignites the veteran. An injury-prone Thomas is a high-risk, high-reward TE2 that could be Miami’s X-factor in the red zone.
[BACKUP] Thirty-three-year-old ANTHONY FASANO returns to Miami after two years apiece
in Kansas City and Tennessee. The 12th-year pro caught 23 touchdowns during his five seasons with the Dolphins—including a career-high 41 catches in ‘12—but he’ll mainly be a blocking specialist this time around. Fasano carries no fantasy appeal whether backing up Thomas or filling in for him when he’s hurt.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] While making more kicks in 2016 (16-for-21) than in his rookie season with Miami, ANDREW FRANKS regressed with a 76.2 percent success rate and made only two successful tries out of five attempts of kicks from 40-plus
POSITION RANK (p.31) 10 17 48 57 16 22
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 23 39 76 132 158
BRONCOS PATRIOTS @BILLS @CHIEFS BILLS
SUN. DEC 03 MON. DEC 11 SUN. DEC 17 SUN. DEC 24 SUN. DEC 31
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yards. His job appears safe for now but may not be for much longer. With questionable security, Franks should be left to the waiver wire.
[RETURNERS] Miami has perhaps one of
the most electric young returners in football in
JAKEEM GRANT (39 combined kickoff and punt returns, one touchdown), but JARVIS LANDRY and KENYAN DRAKE (30.5-yard kick return
average, one TD) also figure to be in the mix.
JJ DEFENSE It was another forgettable year defensively for the Dolphins, who finished 18th in points allowed (23.8 per game) and 29th in yardage (382.6) in 2016. Despite the presence of Ndamukong Suh in the middle, Miami struggled to stop the run (140.4 yards per game; 30th) and racked up a disappointing 33 sacks (tied for 19th)—led by Cameron Wake’s 11.5. It’s no wonder then that five of their seven draft picks went towards the D, with first-rounder Charles Harris expected to immediately beef up the pass rush. The secondary is Miami’s biggest strength, but if they can’t stop the run again, it probably won’t matter much. The Dolphins D has sleeper potential but can be left to streaming later in the year. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Since being drafted 14th overall in 2015, DEVANTE PARKER has compiled modest numbers and is already being labeled a bust by some. The 24-year-old has generated positive buzz this offseason and will be given every opportunity to become the No. 1 receiver the team envisioned. Parker has the potential to be one of 2016’s best value picks.
[OVERVALUED] Workhorse running backs are a dying breed in the NFL, which likely means 2016 breakout JAY AJAYI will be overdrafted in the early rounds as an RB1—with Gase’s comments about Ajayi being able to handle as many as 350 carries inflating that value. Can the third-year back handle a full-time, 16-game load after starting only 12 games last season?
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 220 223 154 134 132 293
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 195 135 98 95 77 216
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $35 $23 $3 $2 $2 $3
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS Herija C. Green
W
hen the Vikings gathered for practice on Aug. 30, 2016, the defending NFC North champs had Super Bowl aspirations. Thirty minutes later the franchise’s trajectory had changed, perhaps for good. Teddy Bridgewater, their ascending signal-caller, had gone down with a gruesome knee injury. His season was over. Thinking they could still contend, GM Rick Spielman sent two picks, including a first-rounder, to Philly for Sam Bradford. The early returns were great as Minnesota started the season 5-0. They’d win just two of their next 10, however, and were officially eliminated in Week 16. A year that’d held such promise four months earlier had ended in disappointment.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] A year ago, MIKE ZIMMER was
the toast of the Twin Cities. By the end of the season, however, there was speculation he’d be fired. A run of devastating injuries, starting with Bridgewater, were beyond the coach’s control, but the midseason resignation of veteran OC Norv Turner and bizarre Christmas eve story where the secondary ignored his coverage calls made for bad optics. Zimmer, 26-22 overall (0-1 in the playoffs) in his three seasons, could be bound for Valhalla if things don’t improve.
focused on restoring the running game during the offseason, leaving Bradford as a weak QB2.
[BACKUPS] After starting nine games for the Rams last season, CASE KEENUM was signed to replace Shaun Hill as Bradford’s primary backup. While there’s nothing flashy about Keenum’s game, his 9-7 record as a starter shows he stays within himself and doesn’t make critical mis-
three-down back than AD was, and ball security is one of his strengths, but in terms of explosiveness and game-changing ability Murray shouldn’t be considered the second coming. The 6-foot-3, 230-pounder will be asked to split time with Cook initially, though it wouldn’t be shocking to see the rookie emerge as the lead back. That makes Murray a shaky third option. [BACKUP] Minnesota traded up to nab DALVIN COOK with the 41st overall pick, which repre-
sents value for someone many thought would go in Round 1. Cook is patient, has the vision to see holes open up and the acceleration to hit them and start getting north-south in a hurry. There are concerns both on and off the field that led to him slipping in the draft. Most worrisome are durability concerns relating to his shoulders—he has also had issues with fumbles. Despite that, Cook appears poised to thrive as a rookie. Draft him as an RB3 with upside.
Pat Shurmur, who took over for Turner last year and fostered minimal improvement, will be the OC from Week 1 in 2017. George Edwards, who arrived with Zimmer, enters his fourth season as the team’s defensive coordinator. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] Considering he was acquired eight days before the opener, SAM BRADFORD did
an admirable job leading the Vikings to a 7-8 mark. The veteran threw for a career-best 3,877 yards while completing 71.6 percent of his passes, setting a new NFL record for accuracy. He also tossed just five picks against 20 touchdowns. Of course, Bradford unleashed a dizzying array of check downs and swing passes, and teams routinely stacked the box against them, daring him to throw over the top. He didn’t. Minnesota
SAM BRADFORD
[THIRD] JERICK MCKINNON was asked to be a
takes. That makes him a good fit for the Vikings. His signing is further proof the team can’t count on TEDDY BRIDGEWATER to play in 2017. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Even though Peterson played just 20 of the team’s last 48 games, LATAVIUS MURRAY
still has some big shoes to fill. He’s more of a
bigger part of the offense last year. It didn’t go so well: 159 carries and 43 receptions for a combined 794 yards, good for just 3.9 yards per touch. He also scored four times. McKinnon is better suited as a part-time player, though barring injury he’s looking at more of a no-time role. There’s no reason to consider McKinnon on draft day.
Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
This offseason felt like the end of an era for the Vikings as they bid adieu to former first-round picks Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chad Greenway (retired) and Matt Kalil. Spielman signed Latavius Murray, Mike Remmers and Riley Reiff early in free agency to breathe life back into the running game and then doubled down by using his first two draft picks on Dalvin Cook and Pat Elflein. It’s a sound strategy—control the clock, win with defense and limit Bradford’s role— but whether it’ll be enough to overtake Detroit and, more importantly, Green Bay, in the NFC North is debatable.
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SAINTS @STEELERS BUCCANEERS LIONS @BEARS PACKERS
MON. SEP 11 SUN. SEP 17 SUN. SEP 24 SUN. OCT 01 MON. OCT 09 SUN. OCT 15
7:10PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 1:00PM
WK.7 WK.8 WK.9 WK.10 WK.11 WK.12
JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] For two weeks, STEFON DIGGS looked like an emerging star with back-to-back 100-yard games to open the season. He’d top the century mark just once the rest of the way, however, and was dogged by lower-body injuries to his groin, knee and hip at various times. His final line (84-903-3) was representative of Minnesota’s dink-and-dunk attack, and the injuries coupled with his statistical fade in 2015 raise questions about his ability to handle punishment over a 16game schedule. Still, given his role and his talent level, Diggs is a solid No. 3 fantasy receiver.
[STARTER] One of Minnesota’s few bright spots offensively last year was the emergence of ADAM THIELEN, who went from 12 catches in 2015 to
69 receptions, 967 yards and five touchdowns. Although a substantial chunk of that production came in two monster games the Vikings thought enough of Thielen to re-sign him to a big deal. He’s a reliable, hard-working target than can work the middle or downfield. Snap him up as your fourth wideout and you should be Thielen pretty good about yourself. [THIRD] When the Vikings drafted LAQUON TREADWELL in the first round last year it was
believed he was the most NFL-ready receiver in the draft. Instead, Treadwell did basically nothing during his inaugural campaign: he was frequently inactive, dealt with injuries and couldn’t earn time on a club desperate for playmakers at the position. Things are wide open after Diggs and Thielen entering 2017, and the team would love to see the Ole Miss product emerge as a reliable possession receiver. Until he produces on Sundays, though, Treadwell is a final-round flier at best.
[FOURTH] Back in 2013, MICHAEL FLOYD
looked like an ascending star. Now, three seasons and one 120-day sentence later, he’ll be looking to get his career back on track and help add firepower to the Vikings’ aerial attack. Floyd’s size will always present problems for defensive backs, and he proved a willing blocker with the
RB WR WR RB TE QB WR WR
DALVIN COOK STEFON DIGGS ADAM THIELEN LATAVIUS MURRAY KYLE RUDOLPH SAM BRADFORD MICHAEL FLOYD LAQUON TREADWELL
RAVENS @BROWNS BYE @WASHINGTON RAMS @LIONS
SUN. OCT 22 SUN. OCT 29
1:00PM 9:30AM
SUN. NOV 12 SUN. NOV 19 THU. NOV 23
1:00PM 1:00PM 12:30PM
WK.13 WK.14 WK.15 WK.16 WK.17
[FIFTH] Assuming Floyd sticks, RODNEY ADAMS, STACY COLEY, MORITZ BOEHRINGER and JARIUS WRIGHT could be fighting for
one spot. Wright is the most accomplished—he caught 76 passes in 2014-15—but fell out of favor last year. Boehringer is a physical specimen that spent 2016 on the practice squad and remains quite raw. Adams and Coley are rookies that are also candidates to replace Patterson in the return game. Of the two, Adams, drafted 49 spots earlier, offers more explosive speed and big-play potential, whereas Coley, while talented, didn’t endear himself at Miami (Fla.) with a questionable attitude and work ethic. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] After five rather nondescript seasons, KYLE RUDOLPH broke out in a big way last year. He posted 83 receptions (third among TEs) for 840 yards (fourth) and seven touchdowns (tied for third), obliterating his previous career bests in the first two categories. Of equal importance, Rudolph appeared in all 16 games for a second straight year, which at least diminishes previous concerns about his durability. He’s a low-end starting fantasy tight end. [BACKUP] Minnesota got essentially nothing out of their reserve tight ends a season ago, and with the duo of DAVID MORGAN II and BUCKY HODGES looking to replace Rhett Ellison there’s little reason to expect more from that spot this year. Hodges was a beast at the combine but fell to the sixth round because his raw talent didn’t translate to production at Virginia Tech.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] When Blair Walsh couldn’t turn the page on his disastrous Wild Card shank the team cut him loose and turned to KAI FORBATH. The veteran stabilized the situation, connecting on all 15 of his FGAs, though he went just 11-for-14 (78.6 percent) on PATs. While he enters camp
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 62 67 86 112 121
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 SAT. DEC 23 SUN. DEC 31
1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 1:00PM
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Pats. Still, given his modest production and likely discipline from the NFL, Floyd isn’t a smart investment on draft day.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 21 30 51 30 10 24 58 76
@FALCONS @PANTHERS BENGALS @PACKERS BEARS
as the prohibitive favorite over MARSHALL KOEHN, Forbath has never produced at a fantasyrelevant level.
[RETURNERS] Although Cordarrelle Patterson’s departure is a blow to the return game, MARCUS SHERELS remains and is one of the best in the
business on punts—he has five returns for scores, including two in ‘16. Rookies RODNEY ADAMS and STACY COLEY are strong candidates to handle kickoffs.
JJ DEFENSE There are plenty of fingers to be pointed for Minnesota’s disappointing season, but the performance of their defense isn’t one of them. The group finished third in total and sixth in scoring defense (19.2 points per game). They also placed seventh in takeaways (27), up from 18th the year before, and fifth in sacks (41). In addition to being well coached, the Vikings’ defense also has the benefit of continuity with Chad Greenway and Captain Munnerlyn the only departures of note from last year. Loaded with talent, particularly along the defensive front, Minnesota’s defense is one of the steadier options you can draft for your fantasy squad. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Latavius Murray was a freeagent splash, but don’t be fooled by the terms of his contract. It’s essentially a one-year deal, and when DALVIN COOK slipped in the draft Rick Spielman pounced. Without any financial commitment beyond 2017, don’t be surprised if Cook emerges as the clear-cut No. 1 option in Minnesota this year. [OVERVALUED] Take out ADAM THIELIN ’s
two biggest games from last year and his line drops to 50-638-2; that’s 3.6 receptions and 45.6 yards per contest over the other 14. With a renewed focus on the ground attack, the Vikings figure to be more in line with 2015 when they attempted 454 passes, well below the 588 from last year.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 175 186 147 145 160 261 133 99
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 132 108 100 125 100 194 89 66
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $20 $7 $2 $6 $4 $2 $2 $1
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Herija C. Green
A
four-game suspension for Tom Brady was supposed to put the Patriots in a tough spot to open the season. Instead, the team didn’t miss a step behind backups Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, who led the Pats to a 3-1 start. Brady returned in Week 5 and New England was off to the races, winning 11 of 12 with all but two victories by double digits en route to another AFC East banner and No. 1 seed. After steamrolling through the AFC, the Pats spotted Atlanta a 25-point second-half lead in Super Bowl LI before Brady and company rattled off 31 straight to claim a fifth Lombardi Trophy.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] Even at 65, BILL BELICHICK
shows no signs of losing his fastball. He has a philosophy that he adheres to without compromise—it’s why he could trade his best defensive player midway through last season and not miss a beat—and he eats, sleeps and breathes football. The results speak for themselves: 226 wins, 14 division crowns, seven AFC championship and five Super Bowl victories. Perhaps what separates him from his contemporaries, however, is that the only one that matters to Belichick is the next one.
scarier is that this might be the most talented group of skill players Brady has had over his 18year career. He’s 1b to Aaron Rodgers’ 1a.
[BACKUPS] To the surprise of many, JIMMY GAROPPOLO remains a Patriot despite heavy
interest from other organizations. Garoppolo, who looked composed and decisive in two starts last year, will have no shortage of suitors should he reach free agency next March. For 2017 he’d
Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels interviewed for several head-coaching vacancies but opted to return for his sixth year amid speculation he’ll eventually succeed Belichick. Matt Patricia has been the Pats’ defensive coordinator since 2012. JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] Limited to 12 games due to his suspension, TOM BRADY’s numbers last year projected to 4,739 yards passing, 37 touchdowns and three interceptions over a 16-game schedule. It’s almost not fair. The veteran’s quick release and surgical accuracy frustrate defensive linemen that can’t get home, and it’s a huge reason Brady still performs at an elite level at age 40—he hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2008. Even
garner similar fantasy interest if he has to fill in for Brady; so much so that he’d be worth considering as a handcuff for Brady owners. JACOBY BRISSETT performed admirably in two starts of his own, but things would have to go really wrong for him to play this season. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] With Blount gone, JAMES WHITE
steps in as the nominal starter, though he’ll doubtless be part of a committee. Ever since his
JULIAN EDELMAN
days with the Badgers, White has been a complementary piece, excelling as a receiver and doing enough on occasional carries to keep defenses honest. Nowhere was that more evident than during Super Bowl LI, when he caught 14 passes, gained 139 total yards and scored three times. White’s prowess as a receiver (his 60 catches ranked third among RBs last year) gives him RB3 value in point-per-reception leagues.
[BACKUP] MIKE GILLISLEE was an underrated part of Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing attack last season, gaining 577 yards on 101 carries and scoring eight times (he added a receiving touchdown, too). Gillislee figures to see most of his action on early downs and short-yardage situations, but he’s a more capable receiver than his career totals would indicate. With his patience, vision and burst, Gillislee is the likeliest candidate to lead the team in carries. Consider him a borderline RB3/RB4 with some upside.
[THIRD] Newcomer REX BURKHEAD got few chances during his first three years with Cincinnati, but injuries created opportunities last season, and Burkhead cashed in. The 210-pounder is a tough runner with underrated athleticism and pass-catching ability. Like Gillislee, he brings significant versatility to the table and could be late-round material. DION LEWIS offers similar skills to White, albeit with major durability
Photo: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Not content to rest on their laurels, the Patriots were aggressive in upgrading their roster during the offseason. They swung deals for Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen and Kony Ealy, and signed free agents Stephon Gilmore, Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. While New England made significant additions, there were also some subtractions, including Martellus Bennett and LeGarrette Blount, though it’s a clear net positive for the Pats. Loaded on both sides of the ball and led by arguably the greatest coach/quarterback combination in league annals, the Patriots are solid favorites to represent the AFC and challenge for their sixth title. Anything less would be a disappointment.
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CHIEFS @SAINTS TEXANS PANTHERS @BUCCANEERS @JETS
THU. SUN. SUN. SUN. THU. SUN.
SEP 07 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 05 OCT 15
8:30PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 8:25PM 1:00PM
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concerns. With the other three RBs either signed or extended during the offseason, Lewis could be on the bubble. If he sticks, however, Lewis has possible PPR depth appeal. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Acquired from New Orleans, BRANDIN COOKS got plenty of “best Patriots receiver since Randy Moss” buzz. Whether he makes a Moss-like impact remains to be seen, but Cooks is positioned for immediate success coming from the Saints’ complex offense. With the speed to get deep plus the hands and toughness to work the middle, Cooks offers a combination no other Pats wideout possesses. The 23-yearold averaged 81 receptions, 1,156 yards and 8.5 touchdowns over his last two seasons. With no reason to think he’ll regress, Cooks is a strong No. 2 fantasy wideout.
[STARTER] JULIAN EDELMAN is coming off a 98-1,106-3 campaign, and he has been one of Brady’s favorite targets since 2013. Although that’s unlikely to change, the sheer wealth of options figures to cut into Edelman’s usage—his 158 targets a year ago were third in the NFL. The veteran remains a volume receiver that relies on quickness and precision to win on routes. At 31, though, it’s fair to wonder when all the miles will start to catch up to Edelman. He’s still a strong WR3 with a smidgen of uncertainty. [THIRD] Belichick identified CHRIS HOGAN
last offseason as someone with the speed and athleticism that was lacking outside. As usual, he was right. Hogan stretched the field vertically, averaging 17.9 yards per catch (tied with DeSean Jackson for most among qualified receivers) and opening things up underneath. His production was inconsistent week to week, however, and Cooks’ arrival further erodes Hogan’s fantasy appeal. He’s best left undrafted. [FOURTH] After catching just six passes in Weeks 1-8, MALCOLM MITCHELL looked like
a different player after the bye, posting 21 receptions, 263 yards and four scores over a four-game stretch before fading. Still, it was a successful
WR TE WR QB RB RB RB TE
BRANDIN COOKS ROB GRONKOWSKI JULIAN EDELMAN TOM BRADY MIKE GILLISLEE JAMES WHITE DION LEWIS DWAYNE ALLEN
FALCONS CHARGERS BYE @BRONCOS @RAIDERS DOLPHINS
SUN. OCT 22 SUN. OCT 29
8:30PM 1:00PM
SUN. NOV 12 SUN. NOV 19 SUN. NOV 26
8:30PM 4:25PM 1:00PM
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[FIFTH] With so much depth, DANNY AMENDOLA and ANDREW HAWKINS might be
battling for one spot. Amendola was forgotten for much of 2016, but his 8-78-1 line in the Super Bowl served as a reminder he can still go. He’s also a steadying presence in the return game. Whether that’s enough to hold off Hawkins, who caught 33 balls while stuck in Cleveland’s dysfunctional passing attack, will be determined in August. Barring injury, neither player is of interest to fantasy owners. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] For the second time in four years, ROB GRONKOWSKI had a season ruined by in-
juries when a herniated disc landed Gronk on IR. From a talent perspective, no tight end can match Gronkowski’s blend of size and strength—in four healthy games last year he caught 21 passes for 473 yards and three touchdowns. At this stage, however, you cannot separate the immense talent from the durability woes. He’s still the top option at the position, but if you take the leap make sure you grab a quality backup. Martellus Bennett. Ideally, he’ll team with Gronkowski on two-tight end sets, but history suggests Allen will be the primary option at times in 2017. The sixth-year pro has never posted big-time numbers, and he carries durability issues of his own. Fifteen of his last 80 catches went for touchdowns, however, and he’s a verified force in the red zone. While Allen shouldn’t be drafted he could be an in-season target if Gronkowski misses extended time.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] After topping 150 points for four straight years, STEPHEN GOSTKOWSKI tumbled down to 127 (his lowest full-season total since 2009). The reason for the decline was twofold: 1) his 32 FGAs were his fewest in
POSITION RANK (p.31) 10 1 26 2 25 52 48 31
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 24 28 56 60 85 96
SUN. DEC 03 MON. DEC 11 SUN. DEC 17 SUN. DEC 24 SUN. DEC 31
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rookie year, and even with the additions Mitchell’s ability to play multiple spots should keep him involved. For fantasy purposes, however, Mitchell stays on the waiver wire.
[BACKUP] DWAYNE ALLEN steps in for
@BILLS @DOLPHINS @STEELERS BILLS JETS
six years, and 2) his success rate dipped to 84.4 percent after topping 91 percent from 2013-15. Despite last season’s hiccup, Gostkowski remains a top-two kicker.
[RETURNERS] Veterans DANNY AMENDOLA and JULIAN EDELMAN were the main
return men last season, and while neither was particularly dynamic, the Pats value ball security over explosiveness in the role. Second-year man CYRUS JONES could also get another look. JJ DEFENSE Although New England’s offense gets the headlines, their defense quietly surrendered the fewest points (250) in the NFL last season—34 less than the Giants. They’re more about limiting damage than making splash plays, however, finishing 14th in takeaways (23) and 16th in sacks (34). They were also one of eight teams not to register a defensive score last year. Despite their relative struggles in creating big plays, New England looks to be on the rise defensively, and newcomers Stephen Gilmore (five INTs in ‘16) and Kony Ealy (5.0 sacks) should help that ascent. With Belichick coaching them up, the Pats hold top-10 appeal as a fantasy defense. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Only Ezekiel Elliot logged more carries last year than LeGarrette Blount, whose 299 rushes were just seven fewer than James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis combined... in their career. While a committee is expected, MIKE GILLISLEE is the only true three-down option and also the most capable of handling the load. As such, his ceiling is higher than his fellow backs.
[OVERVALUED] For much of the last four years, JULIAN EDELMAN has been the best of a mostly
uninspired reciever corps. The winds of change started blowing last year when Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell arrived; they turned into a nor’easter following the acquisition of Brandin Cooks. Edelman’s fantasy appeal is built on quantity. Without it, his value suffers.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 256 243 198 464 158 87 97 91
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 168 166 114 343 149 67 65 57
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $35 $44 $10 $40 $8 $1 $1
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Matt Wilson
A
h, the good ol’ 7-9 Saints. Despite annually featuring one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses, New Orleans is coming off its third straight seven-win campaign. The seasons all played out the same way. The Saints open 1-3, win some games, usually because the Drew Brees-led offense scores a bigger boatload of points than the opposition, and lose some games, usually because a putrid New Orleans defense yields a bigger boatload of points than Brees’ offense could score. The franchise’s three-year streak of mediocrity coincided with a self-made salary cap prison caused by many bad spending decisions. The Saints simply couldn’t afford big-money roster upgrades.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] If you include SEAN PAYTON’s
2012 “Bountygate” suspension season, this is his 12th year. Coming off three straight losing campaigns, 2017 is a critical year for Payton and Loomis. There’s quiet optimism for a turnaround after seven of the nine losses last year were by just six points or fewer. The Saints, rebuilding their talent base and locker-room culture after both areas crumbled in 2014, finally had cash to spend for free-agent help. There are no more excuses.
for yet another monster season in one of the NFL’s most lethal aerial attacks, is a top-three fantasy quarterback until proven otherwise.
[BACKUPS] This is CHASE DANIEL’s second tour of duty as Brees’ backup, having spent the first four years of his career (2009-12) in New Orleans. The ninth-year pro, known for his decent mobility and game manager skill set, has made just two starts in his career and hasn’t
Improvement from third-year defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s 4-3 unit is a must to power New Orleans into postseason contention. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, entering his ninth year, will handle the playing-calling duties again for the Saints’ high-octane West Coast/Air Coryell hybrid scheme. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] How did the “aging” DREW BREES
do last season? He completed 70 percent of his passes, topped the NFL with 5,208 passing yards—Brees’ fifth career 5,000-yard campaign (no other QB in history has more than one)—and added 37 scoring strikes. The durable 38-year-old pocket passer (two missed games in the last 12 years) has shown no major signs of physical decline, and the Saints have enough pass-catching talent to offset Cooks’ departure. Brees, primed
thrown a meaningful pass since ‘14. GARRETT GRAYSON, a 2015 third-round selection, has never taken a snap in the regular season. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] Despite inconsistent usage, MARK INGRAM comfortably led the Saints with a ca-
reer-high 1,043 yards on 205 carries and notched six rushing scores. He also added 46 catches for
MICHAEL THOMAS
319 yards and a personal-best four scoring grabs. Entering his age-28 season, Ingram is a decisive and productive three-down runner, but durability (12 missed games in the last four years) remains a concern. His versatility, receiving skills and familiarity with the complex Saints offense will keep Ingram heavily involved as the lead back. He is a midrange fantasy RB2.
[BACKUP] Nobody knows exactly how much gas ADRIAN PETERSON has left in the tank. Here’s
what we do know: he’s 32, missed most of last season with a torn LCL and has 2,600-plus career touches on his odometer. Peterson, running behind an admittedly porous Vikings offensive line, struggled badly before going down. While the veteran has earned rave reviews in OTAs, that means little once the pads come on. Peterson is set to fill Tim Hightower’s old slot, spelling Ingram on early downs and catching the occasional pass. Consider Peterson as your fourth back with some upside and moderate risk. [THIRD] New Orleans plans to slide rookie ALVIN KAMARA into a third-down role (think
Darren Sproles). Kamara is a versatile runner with good speed and natural hands. The Tennessee product struggles with his blocking, however, which keeps TRAVARIS CADET in the mix. Cadet amassed a career-high 40 catches for 281 yards and four touchdowns last season. Kamara and Cadet aren’t draft worthy, but keep an eye
Photo: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Finally freed from cap purgatory, GM Mickey Loomis didn’t spend big this offseason, but he spent plenty. Loomis’ free-agency trophies include Larry Warford, AJ Klein, Ted Ginn, Alex Okafor and Adrian Peterson; he also re-signed emerging Nick Fairley. The blockbuster Brandin Cooks trade left Loomis with six selections in the first three rounds of the draft. Clearly rebuilding on defense, he landed potential impact rookies Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson. The Saints are always scrappy with Brees under center, but getting consistent contributions from a retooled defense is the key to making a run in a ferociously competitive NFC South division that has produced the last two NFC Champions.
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@VIKINGS PATRIOTS @PANTHERS @DOLPHINS BYE LIONS
MON. SEP 11 SUN. SEP 17 SUN. SEP 24 SUN. OCT 01
7:10PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 9:30AM
SUN. OCT 15
1:00PM
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on them in case the weathered veterans ahead of them run into health issues again. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] MICHAEL THOMAS took the NFL
by storm with one of the better seasons by a rookie wideout ever, amassing 92 catches, 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns in just 15 games—it was the Ohio State product’s impact that made Cooks expendable this offseason. Thomas, while lacking elite speed and athleticism, gets the job done with his size, sure hands, crisp route running and tackle-breaking ability. With Cooks gone, Thomas is set for an uptick in targets and scoring chances. The volume wideout and centerpiece of the New Orleans aerial attack is a top-10 option at the position. [STARTER] WILLIE SNEAD will probably ben-
efit the most from Cooks’ exit. Although Snead missed one game and was slowed in a few others because of a bad toe, he pretty much duplicated his 69-984-3 rookie receiving line with a 72-8954 effort last season. With just seven career scoring grabs and only two 100-yard games on his NFL career stat sheet, the sure-handed Snead isn’t a big-play specialist. A notable increase in targets is all but guaranteed, though, and he’ll battle more favorable coverage than Thomas. Snead can be drafted as a WR3 with modest upside.
[THIRD] Still considered one of the NFL’s fastest players at age 32, TED GINN will be the team’s
designated deep threat—a role he ably filled with Carolina over the past two seasons. Ginn, coming off his third career 700-plus-yard effort, has inconsistent hands, but he still managed to notch 14 scoring grabs with the Panthers in 2015-16. The 11th-year pro is sure to catch some bombs from Brees, but Ginn’s inconsistent production makes him no better than late-round depth.
[FOURTH] Don’t write off fourth-year pro BRANDON COLEMAN. New Orleans prefers
to use the 6-foot-6, 225-pound wideout as a blocker, but he could be an intriguing in-season add if injuries occur up the depth chart. Although Coleman caught just 26 passes for 281 yards and
WR RB QB WR RB TE RB WR
MICHAEL THOMAS MARK INGRAM DREW BREES WILLIE SNEAD ADRIAN PETERSON COBY FLEENER ALVIN KAMARA TED GINN JR
@PACKERS BEARS BUCCANEERS @BILLS WASHINGTON @RAMS
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
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[RETURNERS] TED GINN will likely pull
[FIFTH] Speedy TOMMYLEE LEWIS, a tiny (5-foot-7, 168 pounds) 2016 undrafted free agent recommended to the Saints by legendary coach Bill Parcells, caught seven balls for 76 yards and carried three times for 11 yards in 12 games played. JAKE LAMPMAN was active for just six contests during his rookie debut and didn’t catch any passes. This duo lacks fantasy value.
JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] Even though COBY FLEENER finished with a respectable 50-631-3 line, many considered his Big Easy debut to be a big bust. Frequently struggling with the playbook and dropping passes, Fleener was horribly inconsistent from week to week—he limped to the finish line with just eight catches over the final four games. The Stanford alum has had another offseason to study the scheme and practice with Brees, however, and the New Orleans offense helped Benjamin Watson produce a career-best 74-825-6 line two years ago. That’s the source of the ongoing Fleener intrigue. Consider him a boom-or-bust fantasy reserve.
double duty as the main punt returner and the primary kickoff return guy. If the Saints decide to reduce Ginn’s return load to keep him fresher for offensive duties, their other options include TOMMYLEE LEWIS, ALVIN KAMARA and TRAVARIS CADET. JJ DEFENSE Improving from 31st to 14th versus the run deserves a salute, but this unit tanked in the major fantasy statistical categories as usual. New Orleans finished 31st in points allowed (28.4 per game), 27th in quarterback takedowns (30 sacks) and 17th in forced turnovers (nine picks, 12 recovered fumbles). The Saints hope newcomers Alex Okafor and Trey Hendrickson can help Cameron Jordan (team-high 7.5 sacks) and Nick Fairley, assuming he’s healthy, to ignite the pass rush. AJ Klein is penciled in as the new starting middle linebacker, while rookies Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams are set to anchor the revamped secondary. New Orleans looks better on paper, but a leap to fantasy relevance seems unlikely. JJ EXTRA POINTS
[BACKUP] Athletic JOSH HILL has shown flashes
when given legit opportunities, but the Saints seem content to use him primarily as a blocker. Limited to nine games due to two separate injuries, Hill compiled just 15 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown last season. Although his targets are trending upward a bit, Hill still lacks any fantasy appeal. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] WIL LUTZ looks like a keeper. During
a great NFL debut, Lutz finished fifth in scoring with 133 points thanks to nailing 28 of his 34 field goal attempts (82.4 percent) and going 49for-50 on PATs. The cannon-legged Lutz still has some work to do from long distance after he made just three of seven attempts from 50-plus yards. Kicking in a dome for one of the league’s most potent offenses, Lutz is a top-10 option.
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 15 30 70 84 123 139 157
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three touchdowns in 2016, he quietly impressed when Snead was inactive with seven catches for 78 yards in Week 3.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 8 17 4 28 35 14 60 64
PANTHERS @FALCONS JETS FALCONS @BUCCANEERS
[UNDERVALUED] WILLIE SNEAD looks set
to benefit from a great situation. With Cooks gone, Snead’s week-to-week target load should be larger and more consistent. Plus, since the Saints playbook is a tough one to learn, Ginn, who has never caught more than 56 passes in a season, could struggle, giving Brees yet another reason early and often to look Snead’s way.
[OVERVALUED] Even though ADRIAN PETERSON will be close to a year removed
from knee surgery and will run behind a better offensive line, he was showing his age last season. Throughout Peterson’s career, he has amassed huge rushing numbers behind some less-thanstellar lines, but, while operating behind the Vikings’ awful blockers prior to suffering a knee injury, he looked painfully average.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 263 192 421 190 136 141 79 116
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 179 151 307 119 115 86 67 76
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $42 $24 $34 $8 $4 $2 $1 $1
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NEW YORK GIANTS Jason Hoffmann
A
fter opening 2016 with two straight victories, the Giants suffered through a three-game losing spell. While it was the first losing streak in new coach Ben McAdoo’s tenure, it brought back unpleasant memories of the previous three seasons under Tom Coughlin, all of which ended with sub-.500 records. Those worries were quickly put to rest, however, as New York reeled off six straight wins and, with an 11-5 record, earned their first playoff berth in five seasons. The postseason ended after just one game, however, as New York fell, 38-13, to Green Bay in the Wild Card round.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] BEN MCADOO proved up to the
task in his first run as head coach, but the offensive guru has work to do on that side of the ball. Namely, he must find a way to improve a ground attack that was 29th in yardage with an NFL-low six rushing scores. One move may include giving up play-calling duties, something that McAdoo has done since becoming the Giants’ offensive coordinator in 2014. Either way, McAdoo’s job security is not in question heading into 2017.
and the week-to-week inconsistency makes him hard to trust as a fantasy starter. Draft Manning as a quality backup option only.
[BACKUPS] After being rumored as a potential first-round pick, DAVIS WEBB fell to the Giants late in Round 3. Webb, an above-average athlete and imposing figure at 6-foot-5, 229 pounds, struggled at Cal with accuracy and when the pocket collapsed. He’ll be asked to transition
This marks Steve Spagnuolo’s third season in his second stint as defensive coordinator, and he’ll look to build on the unit’s major turnaround last season. Meanwhile, Mike Sullivan returns for his second season as offensive coordinator with the club.
JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] For the 12th consecutive season, ELI MANNING started all 16 games for the Giants. Last year wasn’t Manning’s worst season statistically—he surpassed 4,000 yards passing for the sixth time and tied for 10th in the NFL with 26 touchdowns. He totaled one or zero touchdowns eight times, however, and only three signal-callers threw more interceptions than Manning’s 16. At 36, his prolific career is starting to winding down,
from the Air Raid offense to a pro-style, which could take some time. That means the No. 2 role likely comes down to holdover JOSH JOHNSON and former Jet GENO SMITH. None of those guys figures to have fantasy appeal this year, but Webb may be worth targeting late in dynasty formats.
STERLING SHEPARD
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] As a rookie, PAUL PERKINS was eased into the offense, settling into a time-share with then-starter Rashad Jennings in the middle of the season. Perkins was much more productive than Jennings over the final month, and he averaged 67.7 yards on 4.4 yards per rush in the last four games. Perkins did not score a single touchdown, though, and was a non-factor in the passing game—despite being considered a capable receiver coming out of UCLA. He’ll open the season as the primary early-down back, but Perkins shouldn’t be considered more than a lowend No. 3 fantasy runner. [BACKUP] SHANE VEREEN appeared in only five games in 2016 due to a pair of triceps injuries. He has proven to be a capable volume receiver, averaging almost 53 receptions from 2013-15, but he has never tallied more than 96 carries in a season. There are also clear durability concerns with Vereen, who has played in eight games or less in half of his six NFL campaigns. Expect Vereen to fill a pass-catching role in 2017, which would mean limited value in deep point-per-reception leagues but no discernible fantasy appeal in other formats. Draft accordingly. [THIRD] Fourth-round pick WAYNE GALLMAN
is a hard runner that offers some versatility out of
Photo: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
During the offseason, the team released one-time star Victor Cruz along with leading rusher Rashad Jennings. Brandon Marshall was the only big-name free-agent addition, and the Giants also re-signed Jason Pierre-Paul to a contract extension and picked up Odell Beckham Jr’s fifth-year option. The draft brought some complementary pieces like Evan Engram and Wayne Gallman, along with Eli Manning’s potential replacement in Cal’s Davis Webb. However, the team didn’t really address an offensive line unit that struggled both in opening running lanes and pass protection. Since the team’s top-notch defense returns relatively intact, the O-line’s performance could go a long way in determining whether the Giants return to the playoffs in 2017.
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@COWBOYS LIONS @EAGLES @BUCCANEERS CHARGERS @BRONCOS
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the backfield. He lacks elite measurables, however, and struggled in pass protection at Clemson. Gallman should be the true backup to Perkins and offers some late-round intrigue. ORLEANS DARKWA didn’t touch the ball after Week 5, yet he’ll be the team’s returning leader in rushing touchdowns (two). SHAUN DRAUGHN caught 29 passes with the 49ers last season and offers some insurance in case Vereen gets injured again. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] ODELL BECKHAM JR started 2016
slowly, gaining only 359 yards through five games and not scoring until Week 5. He eventually found his rhythm and was again an elite receiver, finishing third in the NFL in receptions (101) and yardage (1,367) while reaching double-digit touchdowns for a third straight season. Occasionally lining up in the slot, Beckham caught 57 passes over the final eight weeks and aside from his unusual fascination with kicking nets kept onfield distractions to a minimum. He enters 2017 as a clear-cut top-three fantasy wideout.
[STARTER] It was a season to forget for BRANDON MARSHALL in 2016, with his 59 receptions
and three touchdowns marking the lowest output since his rookie year. Though he only missed one game, Marshall battled various ailments throughout the season, and the Jets’ ineffective quarterback play definitely hampered the veteran’s production. He figures to bounce back somewhat with the Giants, especially in the touchdown category, but the 33-year-old’s days of surpassing 100 receptions may be over. Consider Marshall a high-end No. 3 fantasy receiver. [THIRD] STERLING SHEPARD made an immediate impact in his rookie year, finishing second on the team with 65 receptions and eight touchdowns. Shepard was a consistent weekly contributor, with three or more receptions in all but two weeks, but he isn’t a big-play threat—his longest gain was 32 yards and he averaged just 10.5 per catch. This season, he faces increased competition for targets with the additions of Marshall and Evan Engram. With a repeat performance unlikely, Shepard is a borderline option in most fantasy leagues.
WR WR RB TE WR QB
ODELL BECKHAM JR BRANDON MARSHALL PAUL PERKINS EVAN ENGRAM STERLING SHEPARD ELI MANNING
SEAHAWKS BYE RAMS @49ERS CHIEFS @WASHINGTON
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for 97 yards. On the field, Lewis has decent speed and athleticism but was plagued by mental mistakes. Off the field, he was arrested in early June for operating a vehicle while impaired, which puts his future in doubt. Stay far away.
[FIFTH] After catching a career-high 36 passes in 2015, DWAYNE HARRIS managed just a
single reception with the Giants last year. He and Lewis figure to face a camp challenge from TAVARRES KING, who caught three passes for 73 yards and a TD in the Giants’ Wild Card loss. Harris’ value as a return man may give him an edge for the final receiver spot, but his fantasy appeal is zero. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] EVAN ENGRAM isn’t an accom-
plished blocker, but he was hardly ever asked to stay in line at Mississippi. Engram is purely a receiving threat with wideout-level speed that can either outrun linebackers or, at 6-foot-3, 234 pounds, outmuscle defensive backs. He’s a prime target for owners in dynasty leagues, but the competition for targets in New York makes Engram a bench option for 2017. [BACKUP] Holdover WILL TYE has been a
pretty good volume receiver in his first two seasons with New York, catching 43 and 48 passes, respectively, but he averaged only 8.2 yards per catch last season. JERELL ADAMS has better blocking skills than Tye and showed outside receiving abilities at South Carolina, but the then-rookie only caught 16 passes last year. As long as Engram is healthy, neither player figures to see enough snaps to be fantasy options. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
on roster. Rosas made 116 PATs and nailed 25 of 32 career FGAs at Southern Oregon, an NAIA program. He was in camp with the Titans last year and has unusual size (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) for a kicker. Rosas is too risky to consider draft-
POSITION RANK (p.31) 2 25 26 28 44 18
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 7 49 64 94 116 137
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DEC 03 DEC 10 DEC 17 DEC 24 DEC 31
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[FOURTH] As the Giants’ No. 4 receiver last year, ROGER LEWIS managed just seven catches
[KICKER] With Robbie Gould signing in San Francisco, ALDRICK ROSAS is the only kicker
@RAIDERS COWBOYS EAGLES @CARDINALS WASHINGTON
ing, but if he’s still there in Week 1 he’d be a potential streaming option.
[RETURNERS] DWAYNE HARRIS was the Gi-
ants’ primary option on kickoff and punt returns in 2016, but he was mediocre average-wise and didn’t register any return scores. The team could look to STERLING SHEPARD as an alternative, while ODELL BECKHAM JR could also see the occasional punt return opportunity.
JJ DEFENSE After finishing 2015 dead last in yards allowed and 30th in points surrendered, the Giants defense did a complete 180 last year. It finished second in points allowed and 10th in yards ceded. The defense scored three touchdowns and was tied for 11th in the NFL with 25 takeaways. Emerging star Landon Collins had four of the unit’s 17 interceptions and one of the scores, and he also added four of the Giants’ 35 sacks (tied for 14th). Olivier Vernon led the team with 7.5 sacks, as the free-agent signee’s play was a big reason for the unit’s return to prominence. With all of the key contributors returning, look for the Giants to be a low-end starting option in 2017. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] If the Giants generate an effective ground attack, PAUL PERKINS is going to be the most likely beneficiary. Perkins is a tough runner between the tackles, and his collegiate career suggests he could be a capable receiver. If the line provides enough running lanes, Perkins could work his way into the RB2 conversation in short order. [OVERVALUED] BRANDON MARSHALL
should see his share of targets, especially in the red zone, but there are too many weapons at Eli Manning’s disposal to trust in a complete return to fantasy greatness. Also, keep in mind that Marshall has failed to reach 800 yards in two of the last three seasons. While Marshall still remains capable, there are safer options out there.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 324 199 154 99 162 322
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 217 128 124 59 105 229
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $55 $10 $7 $4 $4
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NEW YORK JETS Matt Wilson
A
lthough the Jets were coming off a 10-win season and looked like playoff contenders, their 2016 implosion under the strain of horrible quarterbacking, key injuries and a tough schedule wasn’t a shock. It proved that Gang Green’s “magical” 2015 campaign was the fluky product of a cushy schedule, overachieving and lots of lucky breaks. This badly flawed team finished with just five wins at the bottom of the AFC East. Ryan Fitzpatrick, operating without safety blanket Eric Decker for virtually the entire season, tanked spectacularly as the offense plummeted to 30th in scoring. Meanwhile, a dysfunctional defense yielded the fifth-most points in the NFL, encapsulated by fading Darrelle Revis’ struggles in the secondary. By dumping Fitzpatrick, Decker, Revis, Brandon Marshall, Nick Mangold and other declining pricey veterans, GM Mike Maccagnan has gone all-in on a total rebuild. To stabilize the offensive line, he re-signed Ben Ijalana and Brian Winters, and took a flier on free-agent Kelvin Beachum. Maccagnan also added Morris Claiborne, and drafted Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye to help shore up the secondary. Signing the aging Josh McCown, however, was clearly a desperation move and certainly wasn’t Maccagnan’s “Plan A” to address an embarrassing quarterback situation. Get ready for yet another losing season from what’s arguably the worst team in the NFL.
[HEAD COACH] Is TODD BOWLES on the hot
seat? Maybe. Even though the Jets are coming off a miserable season, Bowles, entering his third year, deserves a chance to try to turn things around. Maccagnan stuck him with a bad roster, which included a quartet of crummy passers. That doesn’t explain why some players mentally checked out late in the season—remember Gang Green’s pathetic Monday Night Football showing in Week 13? A repeat of that could put Bowles’ job in jeopardy.
a short-term bridge in an offense that features limited options, McCown is merely a desperation matchup play.
[BACKUPS] Despite consistently unfavorable reviews, CHRISTIAN HACKENBERG is expected to be handed the reins by midseason if not sooner. It makes sense to see what the
[BACKUP] Veteran MATT FORTE is now the
New offensive coordinator John Morton will try to rebuild a dreadful unit by switching from a spread system to a run-oriented West Coast attack. Third-year defensive boss Kacy Rodgers will continue handling the play-calling duties that he inherited from Bowles last season.
JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] Declining journeyman JOSH MCCOWN appeared in five games (three starts) during an injury-marred 2016 with the Browns, completing a career-low 54.5 percent of his throws for 1,100 yards, six TDs and six picks. While the 38-year-old has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, it may prove to be irrelevant as the Jets reportedly plan to put Christian Hackenberg under center sooner rather than later during the upcoming season. Operating as
vacuum up a majority of the touches. Receiving a statistical boost from four late starts, Powell toted the rock 131 times for 722 yards (career high) last season, and he amassed a personal-best 58 catches (fourth-most among NFL RBs) for 388 yards. He tallied five total touchdowns. Entering his age-29 season, Powell lacks a dynamic skill set, but he’s an underrated three-down option. Draft Powell as a low-end No. 2 or strong No. 3 back with a bump in point-per-reception formats.
2016 second-round selection can do, but even if he improves dramatically between now and then he’d still be leading an unproven group of skill players. If he gets hurt or is an unmitigated disaster, the Jets could turn to BRYCE PETTY, who threw for 809 yards and three touchdowns against seven INTs before landing on IR.. JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] New York will utilize a committee backfield with BILAL POWELL expected to
junior partner in this timeshare. Playing through a torn meniscus, Forte still suited up for 14 games and led the team with 813 yards on 218 carries— just 3.7 YPC—and seven scores. Despite his prowess as a pass catcher, Forte amassed a modest 30-263-1 receiving line. He wore down late, but perhaps his balky knee was to blame. While Forte underwent surgery to repair the meniscus, it’s debatable what the 32-year-old has left after nearly a decade of heavy usage. Consider Forte a middling RB4 with minimal upside.
[THIRD] If Forte’s health doesn’t hold up, rookie ELIJAH MCGUIRE and BRANDON WILDS
are the leading candidates to pick up the slack. McGuire has the physical tools to succeed, but he lacks patience and has durability concerns of his own. Wilds played in Weeks 14-17 last year, gaining 47 total yards. He has good size and
Photo: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
QUINCY ENUNWA
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@BILLS @RAIDERS DOLPHINS JAGUARS @BROWNS PATRIOTS
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could be effective between the tackles. Ignore them both on draft day. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Minus Decker and Marshall, QUINCY ENUNWA becomes the clear No. 1 option in New York. Physically, Enunwa looks the part: he’s 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, has good speed and is competitive as hell. He has grown each year, steadily ascending the depth chart since being selected 209th overall out of run-heavy Nebraska in 2014. With so few established options around him, Enunwa appears poised to comfortably surpass his 58-857-4 line from last year. Draft him as your fourth or fifth receiver, but don’t hesitate to sell high if he starts strong with McCown at the helm. [STARTER] While ROBBY ANDERSON
appears to be the early favorite for the No. 2 job, he was taken into custody on May 7 for obstructing justice and resisting arrest, which clouds his status for 2017. Anderson made the team as an undrafted rookie last year and amassed 42 catches, 587 yards and two scores— the bulk of which came late with Petty under center. The lanky wideout struggled with drops, though clearly it’s his legal status that’s of paramount concern in the short term. Keep an eye on Anderson to see how this all shakes out.
[THIRD] ARDARIUS STEWART is a compact
target (5-foot-11, 204 pounds) with good hands, toughness and superior run-after-thecatch ability that makes him dangerous in the open field and as a return man. He was talented enough to win the slot job on merit, but after Decker’s release the odds are he has already been penciled in. Plus, if Anderson’s off-thefield legal issues become a major problem, Stewart’s role could expand further. While aspects of his situation are good, the Alabama product is ultimately a rookie in a suspect passing attack. For now, simply add him to your watch list.
[FOURTH] Deep-ball specialist CHAD HANSEN was taken in the fourth round out of Cal
on the strength of his physicality in fighting for the ball down the field. He’s one of those types that play bigger and look faster than their measurables would suggest. Hansen has good,
RB QB RB WR WR
BILAL POWELL JOSH MCCOWN MATT FORTE QUINCY ENUNWA ROBBY ANDERSON
@DOLPHINS FALCONS BILLS @BUCCANEERS BYE PANTHERS
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not great hands, but it’s his relative inexperience—he started just one season for the Golden Bears—that could work against him contributing early on. Unless he climbs the depth chart he’s not worth owning. [FIFTH] Among the remaining wideouts, CHARONE PEAKE, a second-year pro with a
good blend of size and speed, is the most likely to contribute after he caught 19 passes for 186 yards as a rookie. JALIN MARSHALL (set to serve a four-game suspension for PEDs) and veteran QUINTON PATTON (37-408-0 with the 49ers in ‘16) are also options, albeit not for fantasy owners. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] Despite a two-game suspension for DUI, AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS will battle for the top job in camp. Beset by injuries as usual, Seferian-Jenkins compiled just 10 catches for 110 yards in a forgettable seven-game Big Apple debut. The fourth-year pro has shown flashes of top-shelf production, but ASJ has never stayed healthy enough to sustain it. Even if a noticeably slimmed down Seferian-Jenkins wins the starting gig, fantasy owners should steer clear. [BACKUP] It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Jets give fifth-rounder JORDAN LEGGETT
the Week 1 starting nod (for obvious reasons). While Leggett has dependable hands and a good physical makeup—he’s listed at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds—the speedy Clemson product sometimes struggles with route running and blocking. Rookie tight ends are very rarely fantasy relevant. Leggett won’t be an exception. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] CHANDLER CATANZARO went
57-for-64 on FGAs (89.1 percent) over his first two years but was ushered out of Arizona after converting just 75 percent of his 28 field goal attempts and missing four PATs in 2016. He’ll be competing for the job with ROSS MARTIN, a 2016 undrafted free agent that nearly outdueled Nick Folk for the gig last season. Whether it’s Catanzaro or Martin, kicking for the Jets is a non-starter for fantasy owners.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 27 33 31 33 79
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 71
CHIEFS @BRONCOS @SAINTS CHARGERS @PATRIOTS
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[RETURNERS] As noted earlier, JALIN MARSHALL, the primary returner from 2016, will
serve a four-game suspension and has an uncertain future with the team, which opens up jobs for competition. Rookies ELIJAH MCGUIRE, ARDARIUS STEWART and BRISLY ESTIME, a dark-horse candidate, are the players to watch. JJ DEFENSE Awful play in the secondary explains why Gang Green plummeted from third to 28th in takeaways (eight picks and six fumbles) last season. They also dropped from ninth to 28th in points allowed (25.6 per game) and plunged from 12th to 29th in quarterback takedowns (27 sacks). The Leonard Williams-led pass rush (team-high 7.0 sacks) should improve with Muhammad Wilkerson, now almost two years removed from a broken leg, a likely bounceback candidate. Expect growing pains from the revamped secondary, however, which includes newcomer Morris Claiborne along with rookies Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. The Jets aren’t worth drafting, but an improved pass rush could give them streaming value. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] New York’s passing attack will likely be one of the NFL’s worst, but QUINCY ENUNWA still has some sneaky upside. Unlike last season, he’ll spend more time at “X” receiver than in the slot. And even if the quarterback play is uninspired, Enunwa’s main competition for targets consists almost exclusively of young, unproven wideouts and tight ends.
[OVERVALUED] Even if the Jets double cross us and let declining MATT FORTE keep the No. 1 job, don’t reach for him on draft day. Bilal Powell is the better back of the two and should still receive a majority of the touches. Forte, who turns 32 in December, played through nagging injuries and faded noticeably late last year.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 152 115 142 182 96
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 92 82 114 115 64
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $7 $1 $6 $6 $1
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OAKLAND RAIDERS Herija C. Green
A
fter 13 seasons without a winning record, much less a postseason appearance, the once-proud franchise was desperate for a return to relevance. It finally happened last year. The Raiders, led by MVP candidate Derek Carr, scored 30 or more points in seven of their first 12 games and entered Week 16 in control of the AFC West. They took down the Colts, but up 19 in the fourth Carr was sacked and suffered a broken fibula. Minus their leader, the Raiders lost to Denver in Week 17, costing them the divisional crown, and were bounced in the Wild Card round by the Texans, 27-14.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] In guiding Oakland to the playoffs, JACK DEL RIO did what a half-dozen pre-
decessors couldn’t. That alone buys the 54-yearold some rope moving forward. Still, while Del Rio’s 12-4 mark matched the best of his career, it was his first winning season since 2007 and just his third in 11 years in charge. He’s also 1-2 in the playoffs and has never won a division. Perhaps the best is still to come for Del Rio, but the specter of Las Vegas provides an unusual challenge.
top-tier passing numbers. That leaves Carr as a borderline top-10 fantasy QB.
[BACKUPS] With Matt McGloin signing elsewhere, second-year man CONNOR COOK and former Bills starter EJ MANUEL will battle for the No. 2 job. Cook experienced a trial by fire when injuries forced him to start in Houston on Wild Card Weekend, and the results were predictably grim: 18-for-45, 161 yards and 3 INTs. The Michigan State alum has the physical tools to
Veteran Bill Musgrave is out despite guiding the sixth-ranked offense; he’s replaced by up-and-comer Todd Downing as offensive coordinator. Ken Norton Jr. gets another year in charge of the defense, but he needs his group to show improvement.
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] After a one-year hiatus, MARSHAWN LYNCH is returning to the NFL. When last we saw “Beast Mode” he was struggling through an injury-plagued 2015 where he played just seven games and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. A year away from the NFL grind will benefit him physically, at least in the short term, but don’t forget he’s 31 years old and has more than 2,500 touches on his odometer. Call his name as your second fantasy back. Just make sure your depth is solid. [BACKUP] JALEN RICHARD wasn’t even drafted last year, latching on with the Silver and Black as a free agent out of Southern Miss. He opened eyes in OTAs thanks to his vision and power that belied his 5-foot-8, 207-pound frame. Richard was excellent in a complementary role, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and proving a capable receiver (29-194-2). Ideally, Richard will offer a change of pace to Lynch, but he could be asked to do more if the veteran struggles to regain his form. Richard is an intriguing RB4.
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] DEREK CARR took another step
forward in Year 3, finishing third in MVP voting despite a pair of late-season duds (36-for-71, 330 yards, 1 TD combined in Weeks 14-15) and a leg injury that ended his season in Week 16. For the second straight year he finished tantalizingly close to 4,000 yards passing while reducing his mistakes—nine turnovers in 2016, down from 16 in each of his first two seasons. Carr doesn’t make plays with his legs, however, and he hasn’t posted
DEREK CARR
succeed and should be better with another offseason under his belt. Manuel flamed out in Buffalo, but he’s a good athlete with 17 career starts and offers some insurance if Cook isn’t ready.
[THIRD] Although he had his moments, DEANDRE WASHINGTON’s first year wasn’t
the unmitigated success that Richard’s was. After seeing regular snaps early in the season, Washington was phased out after the Week 10 bye, going a month with just one carry and being
Photo: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Most years wondering what might’ve been would be enough to torture a fan base, but the team officially announced in March that it was leaving Oakland for Las Vegas, casting a pall over the upcoming campaign. On the field, the news was happier: the Raiders lured Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, signed Jared Cook and added juice to special teams with Cordarrelle Patterson. Among the departures were leading rusher Latavius Murray and Malcolm Smith. The draft was all about defense, which featured a controversial first-round pick of Gareon Conley. This group looks loaded, and they might be one of the few AFC teams that can challenge New England come January.
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@TITANS JETS @WASHINGTON @BRONCOS RAVENS CHARGERS
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
1:00PM 4:05PM 8:30PM 4:25PM 4:05PM 4:25PM
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inactive twice. He closed strong, however, and offers Oakland another option in the backfield, particularly on third downs. Still, Washington isn’t worth owning as long as Lynch and Richard are healthy. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] After nine games AMARI COOPER had 58 receptions for 843 yards, which put him on pace for 100-plus catches and nearly 1,500 yards. Instead, his output fell dramatically over his final seven contests (25-310-3). Health could’ve been a problem as he dealt with back and shoulder issues down the stretch, though perhaps just as important as what it was, is what it wasn’t: his hands. After struggling with drops as a rookie, Cooper caught 83 of 86 on-target passes in 2016. He’s a low-end WR1 or strong WR2. [STARTER] Maybe there’s something in the
water in Oakland. A year after Cooper had issues hanging onto the football MICHAEL CRABTREE led the NFL in drops with nine. It was a stain on an otherwise excellent season for the veteran as he broke 1,000 yards receiving for just the second time in his career. Crabtree is never going to be a dynamic playmaker—just 10 of his 89 receptions went for 20 yards or more—but he has reestablished himself as a reliable target for Carr, even with the drops. Crabtree would be an ideal third fantasy receiver. [THIRD] SETH ROBERTS was essentially the
third receiver on a two-receiver team last season, hauling in 38 passes for 397 yards. His work in the red zone was his greatest asset with four of his five touchdown receptions coming inside the 20. Outside of that there isn’t much excitement with Roberts, an undrafted West Alabama product that may have maxed out his talent. He isn’t worth drafting. [FOURTH] Former first-round pick CORDARRELLE PATTERSON didn’t develop into the
weapon the Vikings hoped they were getting back in 2013. There’s no denying his speed or elusiveness in the open field, but Patterson never grasped the nuance of playing receiver at the NFL level and was limited to quick hitters and
WR RB WR QB RB RB TE
AMARI COOPER MARSHAWN LYNCH MICHAEL CRABRTREE DEREK CARR JALEN RICHARD DEANDRE WASHINGTON JARED COOK
CHIEFS @BILLS @DOLPHINS BYE PATRIOTS BRONCOS
THU. OCT 19 SUN. OCT 29 SUN. NOV 05
8:25PM 1:00PM 8:30PM
SUN. NOV 19 SUN. NOV 26
4:25PM 4:25PM
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[FIFTH] Undrafted JOHNNY HOLTON can flat
out fly. He was active for 15 games as a rookie and played primarily on special teams. Six-footfour KJ BRENT spent last year on the practice squad and turned some heads at the team’s May minicamp. ISHMAEL ZAMORA looks the part of an NFL wideout. He’s 6-foot-3, weighs 224 pounds and ran a 4.53 40 at his pro day. The Baylor alum has inconsistent hands and is limited as a route runner but off-the-field issues kept him from getting drafted. While Zamora has upside, he profiles as a long-term project. JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] Despite modest production, JARED COOK got a lot of credit for Green Bay’s dramatic turnaround last season—the Packers went 8-2 with him, 2-4 without. His size (6-foot-5, 254 pounds), speed and better-than-advertised hands demanded attention and opened things up all over the field. As valuable as that is, fantasy football is a bottom-line business, and Cook’s 30377-1 line didn’t move the needle. While there should be more opportunities in Oakland, Cook is a sketchy TE2.
[BACKUP] CLIVE WALFORD became the starter
last year and finished fourth on the club in both receptions (33) and receiving yards (359). He’s expected to slide back into a reserve role following the Cook signing, and that duo should afford Todd Downing the chance to use more two-tight end sets in 2017. With Cook the likely preferred target, Walford’s fantasy appeal is nil. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] For 17 seasons SEBASTIAN JANIKOWSKI has donned the Silver and Black, so it
means something to say last year was among his best. Janikowski went 29-for-35 on field goals (82.9 percent; 18th in the NFL) and scored 124 points (12th), which was his highest total since 2011. Oakland’s offense is dangerous, and if they
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 13 35 38 66 103
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 MON. DEC 25 SUN. DEC 31
4:25PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 8:30PM 4:25PM
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
bubble screens (8.7 yards per catch in ‘16). We’ll see if better talent around Patterson makes him more dangerous offensively. He’s a potential watch list candidate.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 9 20 23 8 58 51 24
GIANTS @CHIEFS COWBOYS @EAGLES @CHARGERS
keep providing opportunities for Janikowski he could return top-10 value at the position. [RETURNERS] CORDARRELLE PATTERSON
has been the standard bearer on kickoff returns since entering the NFL in 2013, leading the league in return average three of the last four seasons and scoring five times. JALEN RICHARD finished fourth in punt return yardage (306 yards) as a rookie. JJ DEFENSE One of seven squads to allow more than 6,000 yards in 2016, the Raiders actually improved in scoring defense, going from 22nd (24.9 points allowed per game) in ‘15 to 20th (24.1) last year. Only Kansas City (33) forced more turnovers than Oakland (30) with Reggie Nelson’s seven takeaways leading the charge. Their pass rush crashed and burned, however, finishing last in the NFL—Khalil Mack (11) and Bruce Irvin (7) combined for 18 of their league-low 25 sacks. They’ll be looking to rebound in that department; meanwhile, the selections of Conley and second-round pick Obi Melifonwu should reinforce a solid secondary. They’re a streaming option with the potential to grow into a weekly start, but don’t draft them. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Prior to the Marshawn Lynch acquisition, JALEN RICHARD seemed to be on everyone’s radar as a breakout candidate, and with good reason. Richard delivered in limited opportunities—his 5.9 YPC tied for best in the NFL among backs with at least 50 carries—and showed three-down potential. Backing up a senior statesman, Richard could provide late-round value. [OVERVALUED] MARSHAWN LYNCH is one of
the 2017 season’s biggest mysteries. Are we going to see the guy that averaged 1,339 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns per year from 2011-14? Or will it be the one that only held up for five full games in 2015? History tells us age isn’t kind to running backs. Exercise caution.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 261 181 201 382 81 89 110
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 167 153 127 279 68 71 74
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $39 $20 $13 $17 $1 $1 $1
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Herija C. Green
L
ast year was supposed to be one of transition in Philadelphia, from Chip Kelly and Sam Bradford to Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz. Expectations went through the roof after a 3-0 start, however, including a 31-point thrashing of interstate rival Pittsburgh that “legitimized” the Eagles in the eyes of pundits. Yeah, about that... Philly would take Ls in nine of their next 11 games as defenses forced them to march down the field a few yards at a time to put points on the board—they led the NFL in both fourth-down attempts and time of possession. Philadelphia did win their final two to finish 7-9 and exceed all reasonable expectations.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] DOUG PEDERSON, a disciple
of longtime Eagles head man Andy Reid, took some flak for the offense’s shortcomings, but that was equal parts lack of personnel and residual expectations from the team’s unsustainable start. He’ll have more to work with in 2017, but his roots in the West Coast offense mean quick passes will always be featured. Pederson’s No. 1 task remains coaching up Wentz; something the former NFL backup should be well suited to.
under his belt and significant upgrades outside, Wentz makes an intriguing QB2.
[BACKUPS] AFC West backups NICK FOLES and MATT MCGLOIN were both lured back to
Pennsylvania—Foles played for the Eagles from 2012-14, and McGloin starred at Penn State— during the offseason. With 36 career starts, Foles is the clear favorite to be the No. 2 quarterback.
last season, racking up 299 carries (second only to Ezekiel Elliot), 1,161 yards and an NFL-high 18 rushing touchdowns. The 250-pounder is a wrecking ball between the tackles and should give the Eagles the early-down bruiser they lacked in 2016. Of course, Blount has his limitations as well: he’ll be 31 in December, averaged a modest 3.9 yards per carry last year and is a nonfactor in the passing game. Consider Blount a solid No. 3 fantasy back.
[BACKUP] This is it for DARREN SPROLES. He already announced 2017 will be his last season after 13 years as the prototypical third-down back. Even at 33, Sproles remains a threat due to his hands and quickness in the open field. While there could be a bit of a torch passing for the veteran, he could still produce similarly to last season when Sproles posted 865 total yards and four touchdowns. He could have some depth appeal in the later rounds of point-per-reception drafts.
Another onetime clipboard jockey, Frank Reich, returns as offensive coordinator, a role he held in San Diego from 2014-15. Fiery Jim Schwartz has washed the stink of his Lions tenure off with strong work as a defensive coordinator, first in Buffalo and now here. JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] It was expected that CARSON WENTZ would sit for most, or all, of 2016 and learn the NFL game. When the Vikings inquired about Sam Bradford, however, Roseman took the money and ran, sliding Wentz in as the Week 1 starter. He was efficient early on, looking like an above-average game manager limiting mistakes by making the safe play. There were probably more downs than ups over the final 13 games, though, with 17 turnovers against 13 touchdowns (11 passing, two rushing). Still, with a season
CARSON WENTZ
He has good size, an above-average arm and familiarity with the offense after playing under Reid last year. McGloin started six games in 2013 but went to the bench when David Carr arrived in Oakland. Neither man would be appealing if forced into action. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] LEGARRETTE BLOUNT was an
underappreciated piece of New England’s offense
[THIRD] Fourth-round pick DONNEL PUMPHREY seems like the logical successor to
Sproles. He has a similar build (5-foot-8, 176 pounds) and was hugely productive at SDSU, breaking Ron Dayne’s career rushing record. The question is how many snaps does Pumphrey get in 2017? WENDELL SMALLWOOD posted a solid 77-312-1 line as a rookie, and he’d likely get the call if something were to happen to Blount. Last year’s leading rusher RYAN MATHEWS remains
Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
It wasn’t hard to identify the Eagles’ big problem last year: their receivers couldn’t beat anyone downfield (only Houston averaged fewer yards per pass attempt). To that end, GM Howie Roseman brought in a pair of legitimate deep threats in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. He also signed LeGarrette Blount to add some toughness and stability to the ground game. There were few departures of note, headlined by the releases of Connor Barwin and Leodis McKelvin. For all their maneuverings, the Eagles’ 2017 fortunes rest on the progression of Wentz, who must raise his game in what is suddenly a highly competitive NFC East.
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@WASHINGTON @CHIEFS GIANTS @CHARGERS CARDINALS @PANTHERS
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. THU.
SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 12
1:00PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 8:25PM
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on the roster while he recovers from neck surgery, but it has been widely reported that he’ll be released when healthy. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] With apologies to DeSean Jackson, ALSHON JEFFERY is the most complete receiver to suit up in the City of Brotherly Love since Terrell Owens. He has the power to win over the middle, the height to excel in the red zone, and the speed, while not elite, to make plays downfield. Unfortunately, all that talent comes with a qualifier: when healthy. The sixth-year pro has missed 11 games the past two seasons, and it’s why he settled for a one-year “prove it” deal in free agency. Draft Jeffery as a WR2 and hope he stays on the field. [STARTER] TORREY SMITH was woefully
miscast in San Francisco, logging a mere 53 receptions combined in two seasons with the 49ers. He’s a bit of a one-trick pony, but that trick was sorely lacking for the Eagles in 2016, and Smith will be looking to recapture the form that made him one of the NFL’s preeminent deep threats with Baltimore. While the 28-year-old’s presence should benefit the passing game as a whole, Smith’s own fantasy value figures to be negligible.
[THIRD] Moving back to the slot should benefit JORDAN MATTHEWS, who didn’t hold up as the
de facto No. 1 receiver last season. He doesn’t fit the prototype that many teams want in the slot, but Matthews’ size (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) and strength should be a tough cover for opposing nickelbacks. After averaging 75 catches, 891 yards and 6.3 TDs over his first three seasons, Matthews is a steady WR4 with a high statistical floor and added appeal for owners in point-perreception leagues.
[FOURTH] Selected 20th overall in 2015, NELSON AGHOLOR has been a complete bust thus
far. The USC product struggled with drops—he graded out with the third-worst drop rate in the NFL last season at 9.1 percent—and suffered a loss of confidence that ended with him being a healthy inactive in Week 12. With more talent at
WR RB TE WR QB RB RB WR
ALSHON JEFFERY LEGARRETTE BLOUNT ZACH ERTZ JORDAN MATTHEWS CARSON WENTZ DARREN SPROLES WENDELL SMALLWOOD TORREY SMITH
WASHINGTON 49ERS BRONCOS BYE @COWBOYS BEARS
MON. OCT 23 SUN. OCT 29 SUN. NOV 05
8:30PM 1:00PM 1:00PM
SUN. NOV 19 SUN. NOV 26
8:30PM 1:00PM
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[FIFTH] Rookies MACK HOLLINS and SHELTON GIBSON were added on Day 3, and
both will be looking for a spot. At 6-foot-4, 221 pounds, Hollins has ideal size along with the speed to stretch the field; he’s also a potential special teams ace. Gibson is smaller and less polished, but he has legitimate deep speed as well. DORIAL GREEN-BECKHAM is a physical specimen, but Tennessee traded the former secondrounder after one year, and he appears unlikely to make the Eagles in 2017. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] ZACH ERTZ posted 78 receptions
for 816 yards and four touchdowns this past season, which was good enough to lead the Eagles in all three categories. Although those are strong numbers, Ertz’s ongoing lack of contributions in the red zone have moved past coincidence—just nine of his last 211 catches were for six, which means he scores once every 23 receptions. Given his size and talent, that’s not good enough. With more options this year, Ertz is a borderline top-10 fantasy tight end.
[BACKUP] If you’ve been playing fantasy football long enough the name BRENT CELEK might
still mean something. He was a legitimate force at one point, even putting together a 76-971-8 line. Unfortunately, that was nearly a decade ago, and Celek’s transformation from focal point to blocker in two-tight end sets is complete. Coming off the statistical low point of his career, Celek carries zero fantasy appeal.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] After outlasting Cody Parkey last August, CALEB STURGIS rewarded the team’s faith by going 35-for-41 (85.4 percent) on FGAs and converting 30 of 31 PATs. The 35 made field goals were second only to Justin Tucker, and his 135 points were good enough for fourth. Despite Sturgis’ performance there are better kickers and higher-powered offenses to back on draft day.
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 34 81 91 101 147
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 MON. DEC 25 SUN. DEC 31
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the position, Agholor’s role has been marginalized. Stay far away.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 19 44 8 35 21 46 57 73
@SEAHAWKS @RAMS @GIANTS RAIDERS COWBOYS
[RETURNERS] DARREN SPROLES averaged 13.2 yards per punt return in 2016, proving he still has explosiveness. He’ll likely reprise the role in his final season. It’s doubtful that NELSON AGHOLOR will be released despite his struggles; he should compete with WENDELL SMALLWOOD on kickoff returns.
JJ DEFENSE Under Schwartz’s tutelage the Eagles moved from 28th in scoring defense to 12th last season, allowing 20.7 points per game. Of course, some improvement can be traced to the departure of Chip Kelly, whose scheme kept Philly’s D on the field more than any other group. Despite playing fewer snaps, the Eagles fell only slightly in sacks—from 37 in ‘15 to 34—and matched their prior year total of 26 takeaways. The team hopes first-rounder Derek Barnett and free-agent Chris Long upgrade the pass rush while Day 2 picks Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas help stabilize the secondary, though Jones could miss his rookie year. The ascending Eagles are a potentially attractive streaming option. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] When you consider everything that worked against CARSON WENTZ last season—the jump from North Dakota State, shoddy receivers (only Matthews was in the top-100 WRs for yardage), a middling running game—his rookie campaign rates as impressive. Now, with a year under his belt, a legitimate lead back and much improved talent outside, Wentz could make a big leap.
[OVERVALUED] Despite two years in receiver purgatory, TORREY SMITH still carries name recognition from his time as the big-play option during Baltimore’s most successful time. There’s really nowhere to go but up from his 49ers days, but the veteran figures to spend a lot of time running deep simply to loosen things up underneath. He shouldn’t be drafted in most leagues.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 220 110 173 181 302 102 81 103
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 145 103 98 109 227 66 55 69
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $19 $2 $5 $5 $3 $1 $1 $1
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS Jason Hoffmann
P
ittsburgh opened last season without two of its key offensive cogs, as Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell were serving suspensions of one year and three games, respectively. The Steelers still had Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, though, and they helped Pittsburgh open with wins in four of their first five contests. A fourgame losing streak ensued, which dropped the Steelers to second place in the AFC North, but they followed that with seven straight wins to finish 11-5 for their second divisional crown in three seasons. In the playoffs, Pittsburgh throttled Miami and edged Kansas City on the road before falling, 36-17, to New England in the AFC Championship Game. Offseason upheaval rarely takes place in Pittsburgh, and this year was no exception. On the personnel front, Bryant was reinstated and Brown was inked to a four-year, $80 million extension. Roethlisberger will return after contemplating retirement, though the seriousness of it was debatable. DeAngelo Williams wasn’t re-signed, and Ladarius Green was released. No free agents of note were brought in, but the draft yielded high-motor defender TJ Watt (JJ’s brother) and offensive role players JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner. Pittsburgh is favored to claim their second straight division title and, barring injuries, could threaten the Patriots as the AFC’s Super Bowl representative.
[HEAD COACH] Last year’s AFC North title was the Steelers’ fifth over MIKE TOMLIN’s 10 years
at the helm. After consecutive .500 campaigns, Pittsburgh has now made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, splitting their six postseason encounters. The 45-year-old broke the 100-win barrier last year, and given the club’s love of continuity, Tomlin could someday challenge Chuck Noll’s franchise-best 193 wins as a head coach. His more immediate task, however, is returning to the Super Bowl.
takes, Roethlisberger’s durability issues make him a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
[BACKUPS] Fifth-year man LANDRY JONES
has made a pair of starts in each of the last two seasons, and the Steelers valued his abilities enough to give him a two-year deal this offseason. Jones is a career 60.3 percent passer that has proven competent when called upon, but his fantasy appeal would be minimal. JOSH DOBBS has the size and physical tools to succeed at the NFL level, but he needs to improve his throwing
Todd Haley is in his sixth season as offensive coordinator—in each of the last three, Pittsburgh has finished in the top 10 in the NFL in both scoring and yardage gained. Keith Butler returns for his third season leading the defense.
[BACKUP] Fourth-round pick JAMES CONNER had quite an eventful career at Pitt, with
JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] BEN ROETHLISBERGER missed
two games last year. One, the 2016 finale, was to mitigate injury risk prior to the playoffs. The other followed surgery to repair a torn meniscus—the fact that Roethlisberger’s recovery time was only two weeks (one coincided with Pittsburgh’s bye) further illustrates his toughness. Despite the missed games, Big Ben finished sixth in the NFL with 29 touchdown passes and ninth with 272.8 passing yards per contest. While he has taken steps to reduce the number of hits he
JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] In addition to the three-game suspension, LE’VEON BELL sat out the finale with the Steelers’ playoff position set. In between, Bell rushed for 1,268 yards (fifth in the league) and, perhaps more impressively, collected 75 receptions—that trailed only David Johnson’s 80 among RBs. Beyond being explosive, Bell was also consistent: just twice in 12 games did he account for fewer than 130 yards of offense. With apologies to Johnson, Bell (157 total yards per game in ‘16) is the NFL’s premier three-down back. A spotty injury history is all that prevents Bell from being the undisputed top overall pick.
mechanics and decision-making. Dobbs won’t threaten Jones for the backup spot in 2017, but he’s a potential dynasty target as Roethlisberger’s eventual successor.
strong statistical sophomore and senior seasons sandwiched around a junior year with a torn MCL and Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis. Fully recovered, the 6-foot-2, 235-pound bulldozer projects as a tough interior runner that lacks burst or plus receiving skills. That makes Conner a complementary option to Bell and potential goalline vulture. Consider him the preferred handcuff for Bell owners, though he’ll do little individually to be worth using most weeks. [THIRD] With Bell and Conner locked in, FITZGERALD TOUSSAINT and KNILE DAVIS
are likely competing for one spot. Toussaint
Photo: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
LE’VEON BELL
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@BROWNS VIKINGS @BEARS @RAVENS JAGUARS @CHIEFS
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 08 OCT 15
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flashed some potential during the 2015 playoffs when Bell was sidelined, but he was relegated to mostly special teams last year with just 14 carries. Also in the mix is Davis, another possible return man who has exactly 100 yards rushing over the last two seasons. JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Like Bell and Roethlisberger, ANTONIO BROWN sat out last year’s finale. It likely cost him another reception title; his 106 catches were one behind Larry Fitzgerald for the NFL lead. Brown also tied for second in touchdowns (12) and fifth in receiving yardage (1,284). It was just another in an increasingly long line of amazing statistical performances for the three-time All-Pro, who blends volume with explosiveness better than any other receiver out there. Brown is the most bulletproof fantasy wideout there is and a legitimate top-five overall pick.
[STARTER] MARTAVIS BRYANT gives the Steelers a dynamic pass-catcher opposite Brown, one with 14 touchdowns and an average of 17.2 yards per catch in his 21 NFL games. Although he has struggled with drops, Bryant has offset them with highlight-reel grabs while proving to be electric after the catch. Bryant is capable of being a WR2 in this offense, but he presents tremendous risk given his off-field transgressions. Draft him as your fourth receiver and hope he stays on the straight and narrow. [THIRD] Second-rounder JUJU SMITHSCHUSTER is one of the youngest rookies in this
year’s class, as he won’t turn 21 until late November. He displayed decent athleticism at the NFL Combine, and it’s possible his speed and agility improve as he matures. Smith-Schuster piled up receptions at USC and showed the ability to excel in traffic, though he wasn’t elite after the catch or in separating from defenders. Still, SmithSchuster will be a coveted dynasty prospect that might have value as early as this year.
[FOURTH] Target-wise, ELI ROGERS was the
main beneficiary of Bryant’s absence. After missing all of 2015 with a foot injury, Rogers caught 48 passes for 594 yards and three scores in his
WR RB WR QB TE RB WR
ANTONIO BROWN LE'VEON BELL MARTAVIS BRYANT BEN ROETHLISBERGER JESSE JAMES JAMES CONNER ELI ROGERS
BENGALS @LIONS BYE @COLTS TITANS PACKERS
SUN. OCT 22 SUN. OCT 29
1:00PM 8:30PM
SUN. NOV 12 THU. NOV 16 SUN. NOV 26
1:00PM 8:25PM 8:30PM
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@BENGALS RAVENS PATRIOTS @TEXANS BROWNS
MON. DEC 04 SUN. DEC 10 SUN. DEC 17 MON. DEC 25 SUN. DEC 31
8:30PM 8:30PM 4:25PM 4:30PM 1:00PM
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
first year of action. He’ll lose value with Bryant’s return, but Rogers won’t simply hand over slot duties to Smith-Schuster. If Rogers can hold off the rookie he could have some late-round appeal, but be wary of his elongating injury history.
[FIFTH] Through five games, SAMMIE COATES had 19 receptions, 421 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He sustained a serious hand injury the next week, however, and caught just two passes the rest of the way. While Coates has the inside track, he’ll need to hold off camp challenges from speedy DARRIUS HEYWARD-BEY (6-114-2 in ‘16), COBI HAMILTON (17-234-2), DEMARCUS AYERS (6-53-1) and free-agent acquisition JUSTIN HUNTER, who has long teased with his size and speed.
JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] At 6-foot-7, 261 pounds, JESSE JAMES is an inviting red-zone target. He had
just three touchdowns last year, though (all in Weeks 2-5), and 24 of his 39 receptions came in nine games prior to Ladarius Green’s return— James added 10 catches for 131 yards in Pittsburgh’s final two playoff games. The Penn State product reminds Steelers’ brass of Heath Miller, another big-bodied tight end that could block and catch passes underneath. Like Miller, however, James is a low-end TE2 for fantasy purposes.
love of the two-point conversion undercuts him. That makes Boswell very tough to rely on.
[RETURNERS] ANTONIO BROWN was the primary punt returner in 2016, with ELI ROGERS also seeing chances there. Look for one or both to claim those duties again this season. FITZGERALD TOUSSAINT and SAMMIE COATES are the leading options for kickoffs, with Coates’ big-play potential giving him the edge here.
JJ DEFENSE Pittsburgh’s defense finished 10th in points allowed (20.4 per game) and 12th in yardage surrendered last year. While that effort won’t draw comparisons to the Steel Curtain defenses of yore, it’s a continuation of the improvement shown under coordinator Keith Butler. The Steelers were tied for 14th with 23 total takeaways and scored one defensive touchdown, and Pittsburgh’s D finished with 38 sacks (tied for ninth). Although no one posted more than James Harrison’s five takedowns, this number could skyrocket if first-rounder TJ Watt has anywhere near the impact that JJ had in Houston. While it may not be an elite unit, the Steelers defense looks like a trusted weekly option for 2017 and is worth selecting on draft day.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Martavis Bryant, the projected starter opposite Antonio Brown, is one strike away from another ban from the NFL. If that occurs, JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER goes from keeper-league stash to someone that could be a weekly fantasy asset this year. Smith-Schuster could still hold low-end value regardless of Bryant’s status, which makes him worth a late-round flier in most drafts.
36 extra point tries and made 21 of 25 field goal attempts in 2016. Boswell has only hit two field goals of beyond 50 yards in two NFL seasons, though, and long-range attempts are often risky propositions at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field. The Steelers’ offense is dynamic enough to give Boswell regular scoring opportunities, but Tomlin’s
taken tremendous punishment over the years, and the hits have taken their toll. He missed five games due to injuries in 2015 and 2016, and has been banged up during both playoff runs. With ailments possibly lingering longer for Roethlisberger at age 35, owners would be wise to allocate a roster spot for a quality backup.
[BACKUP] XAVIER GRIMBLE had an 11-118-2 line in 13 games last year, and like James, he is a big target with little fantasy upside. Veteran DAVID JOHNSON is primarily a blocker with just 31 career receptions in seven seasons and, as a fantasy non-factor, should not be confused with his namesake in Arizona. [KICKER] CHRIS BOSWELL was perfect on
POSITION RANK (p.31) 1 3 41 10 30 65 71
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 2 3 82 93 166
[OVERVALUED] BEN ROETHLISBERGER has
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 341 293 169 359 92 64 106
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 219 235 118 260 51 50 64
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $57 $50 $5 $14
$1
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Jason Hoffmann
S
an Francisco opened 2016 with a 28-0 thrashing of the Rams, and in a Week 16 rematch between the two teams the 49ers erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win, 22-21. That was it for victories, however, as the Niners’ 2-14 record matched the franchise’s worst finish. Head coach Chip Kelly’s offensive wizardry was absent in San Fran; despite showing some life on the ground, the offense ranked last in the NFL in passing and 27th in scoring. The defense was even worse, ranking last in the NFL in both yardage and points allowed. Add numerous multiple off-field distractions from Colin Kaepernick, and 2016 amounted to another lost season in the Bay Area. Not surprisingly, wholesale changes ensued on and off the field. Kelly was fired after one season, and GM Trent Baalke was also relieved of his duties. Kelly was replaced by Kyle Shanahan, the architect of Atlanta’s potent offense last season, while former broadcaster John Lynch took over Baalke’s role. Notable player departures include Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert and massive bust Torrey Smith. Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon highlight an uninspired group of free-agent signees, while the biggest additions on defense came via the draft. There is hope that the 49ers finally have direction, but a return to the NFC West cellar is likely in 2017.
[HEAD COACH] KYLE SHANAHAN has
served as offensive coordinator for four different franchises over the last nine seasons. In that time, his groups have had plenty of success. Atlanta’s offense led the NFL in scoring last year and was second in yardage gained, and he has overseen units that have ranked in the top 10 in scoring and/or passing yardage six times each. As expected, Shanahan will handle all play-calling duties, and he will not employ a separate offensive coordinator, either.
Shanahan hired Robert Saleh to lead the defense. This is Saleh’s first coordinator position in the NFL. He was Jacksonville’s linebackers coach for the past three seasons, and he’s expected to implement the hybrid 4-3 scheme that was utilized by the Jaguars. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] Barring another addition, BRIAN HOYER will enter 2017 as the prohibitive favor-
ite to be San Francisco’s starting signal-caller. Last season, Hoyer completed 67 percent of his throws and topped 300 yards passing in his first four starts with Chicago before a broken arm ended his season in Week 7. He signed a two-
year deal to join the 49ers, but the journeyman is a stopgap that doesn’t figure to start beyond this season. Surrounded by an uninspiring group of skill players, Hoyer has very little fantasy appeal regardless of format.
[BACKUPS] MATT BARKLEY also spent 2016 in the Windy City, surpassing 300 yards in three of six starts. Barkley completed less than 60 percent of his passes, however, and tossed a whopping 14 interceptions in only 216 attempts. C.J. BEATHARD didn’t set foot in Chicago last year. The third-round pick has experience running a pro-style offense at Iowa, but he’s a limited athlete that needs to improve his accuracy and speed up his release. Neither guy would be worth owning if thrust into action.
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] CARLOS HYDE was one of the lone
bright spots during last year’s dismal campaign. Hyde accounted for nine touchdowns and nearly broke the 1,000-yard barrier despite knee issues that limited him to 13 appearances. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the first time injuries have been an issue for Hyde, who has missed a combined 14 games over his three seasons. A limited receiver out of the backfield, Hyde’s forte is power between the tackles, which isn’t a great fit for Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme. Hyde may rate as a strong RB3 this year, but his long-term outlook in San Francisco is unclear.
[BACKUP] As New Orleans’ No. 2 back last year, TIM HIGHTOWER scored five times and gained
748 all-purpose yards. He was signed by San Francisco to fill a similar role in 2017. Although he’s no threat to replace Hyde as the lead back, Hightower has shown he can be productive when called upon. He’s a sure-handed veteran presence that gives the team some coverage should Hyde succumb to injury again. If you invest an early pick on Hyde, you should target Hightower later on as a handcuff selection.
Photo: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
CARLOS HYDE
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PANTHERS @SEAHAWKS RAMS @CARDINALS @COLTS @WASHINGTON
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[THIRD] Fourth-round pick JOE WILLIAMS has had issues with ball security and hasn’t shown much promise as a receiver. He also had several concerning off-field incidents, including theft while at UConn and a month-long “retirement” at Utah. Williams boasts excellent north-south speed, however, which was enough to convince the team to trade up in order to select him. Compared by some to Atlanta’s Tevin Coleman, who scored 11 touchdowns in Shanahan’s offense last season, Williams should be a popular late-round sleeper in many leagues.
JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] PIERRE GARCON will be San
Francisco’s primary receiving threat after signing a two-year deal this offseason. Garcon spent the last five seasons in Washington, and his monster 2013 campaign (113-1,346-5) came during Shanahan’s stint as offensive coordinator with the team. Entering his age-31 season, Garcon, who averaged 73 catches over his last three years, figures to once again be a volume receiver with little big-play potential. He’s a low-upside No. 3 fantasy receiver, though he gets a modest bump in point-per-reception formats.
[STARTER] After four years in Buffalo, MARQUISE GOODWIN joins the 49ers with plenty to
prove. Goodwin is among the NFL’s fastest receivers, yet 49 receptions over four seasons are all he has to show for it. He finally saw an expanded offensive role last year, but the results (29-431-3) were underwhelming. Perhaps Shanahan can maximize his talents (see Gabriel, Taylor), but the diminutive Goodwin needs to stay on the field after missing 25 games with the Bills. Goodwin isn’t a draft-worthy fantasy threat, but he’s not a bad bench stash for owners gambling on upside.
[THIRD] After falling out of favor with the Jets, JEREMY KERLEY bounced back with the 49ers
last season. Operating as the primary slot receiver, Kerley was targeted nearly twice as often as any other San Fran receiver and led the team in both receptions (64) and receiving yards (667). While Kerley benefited immensely from Chip Kelly’s scheme that emphasized short, quick passes, his targets figure to drop significantly under Shanahan. At best, Kerley has some fringe value in deeper point-per-reception formats.
RB WR RB QB TE
CARLOS HYDE PIERRE GARCON JOE WILLIAMS BRIAN HOYER VANCE MCDONALD
COWBOYS @EAGLES CARDINALS GIANTS BYE SEAHAWKS
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[FOURTH] ALDRICK ROBINSON gives Shanahan another familiar face in the receiving corps. After a year out of the NFL, Robinson spent 2016 in Atlanta and caught a career-best 20 passes with two touchdowns. Owner of a career average of 18.6 yards per catch, Robinson could challenge Goodwin for the role of deep receiving threat. However, he shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar. [FIFTH] Recent draft picks AARON BURBRIDGE (sixth round; 2016) and DEANDRE SMELTER (fourth; 2015) had reception totals of
seven and one, respectively, last year and appear unlikely to receive expanded offensive roles. Rookie TRENT TAYLOR could push the duo for the final receiver spot. At 5-foot-8, 181 pounds, Taylor is lacking in size, but the former Louisiana Tech wideout has the hands, speed and agility to make things happen out of the slot. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] Former second-rounder VANCE MCDONALD led the team in receiving touch-
downs (four) and was rewarded with a five-year, $35 million contract extension in December. McDonald caught only 24 passes on the season, however, and he missed five games because of injuries to his hip and shoulder, the latter occurring the day after he inked his extension. McDonald has had issues with drops and despite the new contract, his roster spot isn’t guaranteed by the new regime. If he returns, McDonald should be considered a low-upside fantasy backup.
[BACKUP] GARRETT CELEK saw an uptick in targets when McDonald was sidelined, and he had career bests in receptions (29) and touchdowns (three). GEORGE KITTLE, Beathard’s teammate at Iowa, is an excellent blocker with surprising athleticism, but the fifth-round pick tallied only 48 receptions over his final two collegiate seasons. Neither player is worth monitoring.
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] San Francisco signed 35-year-old ROBBIE GOULD to replace Phil Dawson, who
joined Arizona in the offseason. Gould, the longtime Bear, missed three extra points in 10 games with the Giants, and though he was perfect on field goal tries he only had 10 attempts
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@BEARS @TEXANS TITANS JAGUARS @RAMS
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all season. Kicking for an offense that figures to struggle with consistency, Gould is not a viable fantasy option.
[RETURNERS] JEREMY KERLEY handled the majority of punt return duties last year. Kerley had one career touchdown as a returner with the Jets, but he averaged just 7.5 yards per return last season. Kerley, RAHEEM MOSTERT, MARQUISE GOODWIN and ALDRICK ROBINSON are among the potential options on kickoffs.
JJ DEFENSE New coordinator Robert Saleh inherits a defense that allowed 30 points and more than 400 yards per game to opposing offenses in 2016. They were abysmal against the run, allowing almost 166 rushing yards per contest, more than 20 more than the next-worst unit. San Fran’s D forced 20 total turnovers, but only six teams tallied fewer interceptions than the 49ers’ total of 10. The defense finished tied for 19th with 33 total sacks, but it was actually above-average at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. First-round picks Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster should provide immediate impact for the 49ers, but overall this is a defense that needs a lot of improvement before it can even be considered mediocre, let alone one that fantasy owners can trust. Keep your distance. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Carlos Hyde is injury-prone and possibly ill-suited for the new offensive scheme, and he’s in the final year of his contract. This could give Shanahan every excuse to see what JOE WILLIAMS can do. Williams is an intriguing dynasty target, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have an impact in standard leagues as well. [OVERVALUED] PIERRE GARCON appears to
have plenty left in the tank, but he’s never scored more than six touchdowns in a season and needs high reception totals to hold significant fantasy value. The quarterback depth chart behind Brian Hoyer is shaky at best, so an injury to Hoyer could drop Garcon’s production enough that he’s not a surefire weekly fantasy option.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 196 164 65 154 93
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 171 106 53 110 63
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $28 $4 $1
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Jason Hoffmann
A
fter finishing second to Arizona in 2015, last season figured to be another two-team race between the Seahawks and the Cardinals for the NFC West title. Instead, Arizona played .500 football for most of the season while Seattle won seven of their first 10 games and finished 10-5-1—it was the team’s third divisional crown in four years and fifth season in a row with double-digit wins. The Seahawks crushed Detroit, 26-6, in the Wild Card round, but their season ended a week later in a 36-20 loss to Atlanta. Seattle’s defense remained top-notch, but the team’s offense crumbled as issues with the line hurt both the running and passing games. GM John Schneider focused on improving the woeful O-line during the offseason by bringing in former No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel and drafting Ethan Pocic in the second round. Eddie Lacy was also signed to aid a rushing attack that finished 25th last season. The defense remains largely intact, though many of this year’s draft picks figure to be added rotational players. The only real offseason drama involved Richard Sherman. He was rumored to be on the trading block prior to the draft but was not moved. Despite any potential off-field distractions, Seattle appears to be the overwhelming favorite to repeat as NFC West champs.
[HEAD COACH] Seattle is 70-41-1 over PETE CARROLL’s tenure and has made the playoffs in
six of his seven seasons, including five in a row. He has also won at least one game in each postseason trip and holds a 9-5 overall mark. Questions about how he handles different personalities in the locker room have been quickly refuted by several players. Carroll’s contract runs through 2019 and given the team’s success on the field, his job looks as safe as any coach in the NFL.
Wilson looks like a prime bounce-back candidate that should once again be a midrange No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
[BACKUPS] Despite kicking the tires on Colin Kaepernick, the Seahawks ultimately signed journeyman AUSTIN DAVIS to compete with holdover TREVONE BOYKIN. Davis is the more experienced option with 10 starts under his belt,
[BACKUP] Injuries were the story of CJ PROSISE’s rookie season as he appeared in just six
Darrell Bevell will lead an offense that was just 18th in the NFL in scoring last season, the worst finish since the first of his six years as coordinator. Kris Richard returns for his third year as defensive coordinator. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] RUSSELL WILSON passed for a
career-high 4,219 yards in 2016, good for 10th in the NFL, but overall his season was disappointing. Wilson only registered 21 touchdown passes and gained just 259 rushing yards, by far the lowest total in his career, as persistent ankle and knee issues bothered him throughout the season. Still, he started all 16 games for the fifth straight time, and his accuracy continues to be excellent.
2015-16 are behind him. Lacy averaged 1,159 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns per year in his first two seasons, but he hasn’t been the same since showing up out of shape for camp in 2015. The extra weight sapped Lacy’s effectiveness that year, and while he showed up slimmer last season an ankle injury limited him to five games. Signed to a one-year, incentive-laden deal that includes a weight clause, Lacy will be trying to get his career back on track. He’s a risk/reward RB2.
most of them coming with the Rams in 2014. Boykin looked solid in preseason and mop-up duty last year, but he was arrested for marijuana possession this March, so a suspension could be forthcoming. Neither player would move the needle for fantasy owners. JJ RUNNING BACK [STARTER] Former Packer EDDIE LACY will be, ahem, hungry to prove that his struggles from
games due to broken bones in his wrist and shoulder. He opened eyes when he was on the field, however, averaging 12.2 yards on his 17 receptions along with a tidy 5.7 yards per carry. Prosise is clearly their best receiver out of the backfield, and the Seahawks plan to feature him in that role. Consider him an intriguing selection as your third option in point-per-perception formats. [THIRD] THOMAS RAWLS entered 2016 fully
recovered from a broken ankle, but he promptly missed nine weeks with a hairline fracture in his leg. When he suited up, Rawls did virtually nothing as a receiver and averaged a paltry 3.2 yards per carry, though some of that could be attributed
Photo: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
DOUG BALDWIN
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@PACKERS 49ERS @TITANS COLTS @RAMS BYE
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to Seattle’s offensive line woes. Lacy’s presence puts a huge dent into Rawls’ outlook, making him a mediocre handcuff option. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] DOUG BALDWIN’s 14-touchdown
outburst in 2015 could be a career outlier, so it shouldn’t be surprising that he caught only seven scoring strikes last year. Baldwin did improve on his reception (94) and yardage (1,128) totals, however, ranking seventh and 11th in the NFL, respectively, in those categories. Despite being a bit undersized, Baldwin is tough, durable and works the entire field. The Stanford product doesn’t get his due in fantasy circles, but he’s a strong WR2 that could produce more.
[STARTER] Although JERMAINE KEARSE operates as Seattle’s other starting wideout, his strength (blocking) doesn’t translate to the fantasy world. Over the past three seasons, the sixth-year pro has averaged 43 receptions, 577 yards and 2.33 touchdowns, which is a good baseline for what to expect in 2017. With his subpar separation skills Kearse will never produce big numbers. He’s simply not fantasy material. [THIRD] After underwhelming for much of 2016, TYLER LOCKETT started to heat up down
the stretch. Over his last four games, Lockett caught 18 passes for 278 yards and a touchdown—he added 90 yards and another score on just three carries. His season ended in Week 16 after he suffered a broken leg, but he should be close to 100 percent by the time Week 1 rolls around. Although he may be eased into action early on, Lockett has enough potential to warrant drafting as a WR5. [FOURTH] PAUL RICHARDSON posted an uninspiring 21-288-1 line as Seattle’s fourth receiver last season, but he tallied 15 receptions, 213 yards and two touchdowns over the final four games (including playoffs) with Lockett out. Even with Lockett healthy, the team sounds interested in getting Richardson and his deep speed more involved in 2017. Look for Richardson to push Kearse for snaps, though at this point he’s only worth a look in deeper leagues.
WR RB TE QB RB RB WR
DOUG BALDWIN EDDIE LACY JIMMY GRAHAM RUSSELL WILSON CJ PROSISE THOMAS RAWLS TYLER LOCKETT
@GIANTS TEXANS WASHINGTON @CARDINALS FALCONS @49ERS
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JJ TIGHT END [STARTER] After a miserable debut in Seattle, JIMMY GRAHAM finished second among the team’s receivers with his 65-923-6 line. The yardage total was third among all NFL tight ends, and the overall performance was remarkable since it came less than a year after Graham suffered a torn patellar tendon. Several receivers who have suffered this injury have never been the same (Victor Cruz being the prime example), but in games Graham looked just as explosive as he often did in New Orleans. He has worked his way back into the middle tier for starting fantasy tight ends. [BACKUP] LUKE WILLSON re-signed with Se-
attle and will again be Graham’s primary backup. Willson has decent open-field speed for a tight end, but he was limited mostly to blocking duties last year and averaged a career-worst 8.6 yards per catch on 11 grabs. NICK VANNETT, a thirdround pick in 2016, had only three catches in nine games and is known more as a blocker than as a receiver. Neither player will be worth considering for fantasy purposes. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] In a weird twist of fate, BLAIR WALSH takes over Seattle’s kicking duties from Steven Hauschka. As an up-an-coming kicker that scored 135 points for the Vikings in 2015, Walsh shanked a 27-yarder at the end of Seattle’s playoff win in Minnesota. His confidence was shot in 2016, as he went 12-for-16 on FGAs and missed four of 19 extra points before the Vikings
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[FIFTH] Third-round pick AMARA DARBOH displayed 4.45 speed at the NFL combine and has good size, but he didn’t post huge numbers at Michigan and profiles as little more than a third receiver. Darboh is a long shot to contribute in 2017 and isn’t someone to target in yearly formats. TANNER MCEVOY, who once played both quarterback and safety at Wisconsin, averaged 15.6 yards on nine receptions and has been used on occasional gimmick plays, but he has no fantasy value.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 14 28 5 6 56 41 56
EAGLES @JAGUARS RAMS @COWBOYS CARDINALS
released him. Walsh is waiver-wire fodder unless his accuracy improves markedly.
[RETURNERS] TYLER LOCKETT is the
prohibitive favorite to handle all return duties again in 2017. Although he didn’t score any touchdowns last season, Lockett did finish among the leaders in kickoff return average (26.3 yards/return). PAUL RICHARDSON filled in after Lockett was hurt, and he figures to see occasional kickoff chances. JJ DEFENSE In 2016, Seattle’s defense continued to be a fantasy force. They finished third in points allowed (18.3 per game) and fifth in yardage, which was actually the defense’s worst showing in both categories since 2011. The Seahawks were tied for third with 42 sacks, and both Cliff Avril and Frank Clark broke double digits individually. The defense was only 22nd in takeaways with 19, though, with Richard Sherman accounting for four of the unit’s 11 interceptions (tied for 21st). Seattle’s defense has the luxury of playing six games in a division with two weak offenses (the Rams and 49ers) and a third (Arizona) that was very turnover-prone a year ago. Expect the Seahawks defense to remain an elite fantasy unit in 2017. JJ EXTRA POINTS
[UNDERVALUED] TYLER LOCKETT was
emerging as a dynamic weapon on offense late last year, and he appeared to have passed Jermaine Kearse in the passing game hierarchy. Though his season ended due to his broken leg, health doesn’t appear to be an issue. In some leagues, the injury could depress Lockett value, which would make him a bargain on draft day.
[OVERVALUED] Some owners are gambling that EDDIE LACY’s one-year, incentive-heavy contract
will give him the focus needed to return to his old form. Before rolling the dice, keep in mind that he faced serious questions about his conditioning last offseason and lost plenty of weight before the 2016 campaign... but the pounds gradually returned as the season progressed.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 237 148 201 391 82 116 136
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 153 124 131 294 65 95 94
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $28 $6 $11 $23 $1 $2 $2
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Buck Davidson
T
ampa Bay headed into the 2016 season looking for a glimmer of hope, and the team made some nice strides in forging a 9-7 record and finishing second in their division. Their record suggests “balance,” but in fact the team was streakier than some cab drivers’ windshields: after winning their opener, the Bucs lost three in a row, won two in a row, lost two in a row, won five straight, and then dropped a pair before winning the season finale. The team failed to make the playoffs for the ninth straight season, but enough good things happened last season to give the Buccaneer faithful hope for the future.
JJ COACH
[HEAD COACH] DIRK KOETTER almost made
the playoffs in his first year at the helm, rescuing a team that went 12-36 over the previous three seasons and finished last in their division five straight times. He also oversaw a dramatic reduction in penalties, from an NFL-worst 146 in 2015 to 109 last season. Koetter is an offensive-minded coach who is the Bucs’ primary play-caller; his 2016 success should safeguard his job for at least the next couple of seasons.
quarterback, but he’s better slotted in as your backup with the upside to be a starter.
[BACKUP] Coming off a dismal 2016, RYAN FITZPATRICK will step into a fully formed re-
serve role for the first time in a decade. With 116 starts on his NFL resume, the Harvard product is arguably the most accomplished backup in the league, and his first-hand knowledge of the game should help Winston’s preparation and
recent huge disappointment stands to be one of 2017’s biggest draft-day gambles. Martin has reportedly looked great during offseason workouts, but his history of injuries, stint in rehab, aforementioned suspension and periodic ineffectiveness should scream “caution” to potential fantasy owners. Martin has plenty of upside, but he carries all manner of risk. He should be considered no better than a No. 5 fantasy back; one that you’ll need to stash on your bench.
[BACKUP] Fourth-year pro CHARLES SIMS missed much of last season due to a knee injury, and he was mostly ineffective when he was on the field. Sims flashed his upside in 2015—1,090 total yards and four TDs—but he has missed significant time due to injuries in two of his three NFL seasons. Although Martin’s situation opens the door for Sims, he’s flying his own collection of red flags for owners to be wary of. The former Mountaineer is a late-round flier with more value in point-per-reception leagues.
Defensive coordinator Mike Smith’s charges were mediocre, but they progressed as the season wore on. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s attack sputtered last year, and while the Bucs should boast a fine passing attack in 2017, the key may lie in their ability to effectively run the football. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] JAMEIS WINSTON improved his
accuracy and again eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in his second season, but the young signal-caller remains a work in progress. Put bluntly, he’s too reckless with the football: his six lost fumbles were the most in the NFL, and his 18 picks trailed only Philip Rivers (21). While Winston should benefit from the Bucs’ impressive array of targets, the running game has more questions than a Jeopardy marathon. Winston is a serviceable option as a lower-end No. 1 fantasy
MIKE EVANS
adjustments. If he ends up under center, however, Fitzgerald would be worth keeping an eye on as he has proven capable of producing with talent around him. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] DOUG MARTIN will be suspended for the first three games because of a failed drug test, and the oft-injured former fantasy stud /
[THIRD] Veteran JAQUIZZ RODGERS stepped
up when injuries decimated the Bucs’ running game and racked up 324 rushing yards over a three-game span. He’s undersized, though, and couldn’t be a featured back over a long period. Fifth-round pick JEREMY MCNICHOLS was a prolific dual threat at Boise State, and he has the versatility to contribute in multiple areas. Both players are watch-list candidates.
Photo: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
GM Jason Licht made significant upgrades to the offense during the offseason, signing veteran DeSean Jackson to a free-agent deal, and selecting Alabama’s OJ Howard with the 19th overall pick in the draft. Tampa Bay then added speedy Chris Godwin in the third round, further augmenting what looks to be a formidable arsenal of aerial options. The Bucs also made news with what they did not do: namely adding any significant upgrades to a woeful rushing attack. Buccaneer fans—including my 97-year-old Granny Lil—are already whispering “playoffs,” and that murmur could become a shout by the time Week 17 arrives. For now, let’s simmer down, Grandma.
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@DOLPHINS BEARS @VIKINGS GIANTS PATRIOTS @CARDINALS
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SEP 10 SEP 17 SEP 24 OCT 01 OCT 05 OCT 15
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JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Following an uneven sophomore campaign, MIKE EVANS rebounded to post monster numbers last season, and more good things should be in store for 2017. The big wideout led the league with 175 targets while significantly improving his drop rate from 7.4 percent in ‘15 to 4.1 last year. D-Jax may have a slight impact on Evans’ targets, but Jackson’s ability to stretch the field should aid Evans in finding more room to maneuver. Evans should see plenty of footballs heading his way again this year, and he looks like a safe choice as a top-five fantasy wideout. [STARTER] DESEAN JACKSON is entering
his 10th NFL season, but the playmaking deep threat won’t turn 31 until December and can still get it done. Jackson averaged 17.9 yards per catch last season (tied for first among qualified receivers), and the veteran’s ability to stretch defenses could be a vital cog in Tampa Bay’s passing attack. Jackson can pile up the yards, but he has never reached double digits in receiving touchdowns and will lag behind Evans in the pecking order. Consider Jackson a low-end WR3.
[THIRD] Other than Evans, ADAM HUMPHRIES was Winston’s most reliable option
on the outside, finishing third on the team in both receptions (55) and receiving yards (622). He’s primarily a possession receiver, however, and he figures to see a reduced workload with Jackson and OJ Howard in the fold. Humphries should still be a factor out of the slot, but he’ll likely hold very little, if any, fantasy value. [FOURTH] Third-round pick CHRIS GODWIN
clocked a 4.42 40-yard dash at the combine, and he has the size and athleticism to win contested catches. He’s also versatile enough to work outside or in the slot. Opportunity is critical to fantasy success, though, and with only one football to go around Godwin is unlikely to be a meaningful fantasy contributor as long as the Bucs’ top receiving options remain healthy.
WR QB TE WR RB RB TE QB RB
MIKE EVANS JAMEIS WINSTON O.J. HOWARD DESEAN JACKSON DOUG MARTIN JACQUIZZ RODGERS CAMERON BRATE RYAN FITZPATRICK CHARLES SIMS
@BILLS PANTHERS @SAINTS JETS BYE @FALCONS
OCT 22 OCT 29 NOV 05 NOV 12
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SUN. NOV 26
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SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
[FIFTH] There’s no shortage of candidates for the
final job, but the most interesting name kicking around Tampa Bay’s depth chart is JOSH HUFF. A third-round pick in 2014, Huff was released last November after being arrested and was subsequently signed by the Bucs for whom he played three games. Huff has made some explosive plays, particularly on special teams, and should push for a spot. That being said, Huff doesn’t figure to be a blip on fantasy radars in 2017. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] CAMERON BRATE tied for the
league lead among tight ends with eight scoring grabs, and he finished second on the Bucs in both receptions and receiving yardage. Brate is undersized, but he has a nice rapport with Winston, and should see plenty of targets—especially in the red zone—this season. Although Howard figures to cut into his production, Brate should still manage enough looks to warrant selection as a midrange No. 2 fantasy tight end.
[BACKUP] First-round pick OJ HOWARD ran
a 4.51 40-yard dash during the combine, and his blend of size (6-foot-6, 251 pounds) and speed could create all kinds of matchup problems for NFL secondaries... someday. Howard is a good blocker, which means he should see plenty of reps as a rookie—especially in two-tight end formations—but it’s uncertain how much his talent will translate into production this season. He should be targeted early in dynasty leagues, but in singleyear he’s a high-upside reserve. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
[KICKER] ROBERTO AGUAYO had the lowest
field-goal conversion percentage (71) among regular kickers last season, thanks in large part to his abysmal 4-for-11 from 40 yards and beyond. In response, the Bucs signed veteran NICK FOLK, who could land the job if he impresses in camp. Whoever wins could be in for plenty of scoring chances in the coming season and is worth a look at the end of drafts.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 3 9 22 36 32 63 18 36 59
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 5 80 88 89 104 145 163
@PACKERS LIONS FALCONS @PANTHERS SAINTS
SUN. DEC 03 SUN. DEC 10 MON. DEC 18 SUN. DEC 24 SUN. DEC 31
1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM 1:00PM 1:00PM
[RETURNERS] ADAM HUMPHRIES hauled
back 24 punts last season, and his 9.9 yards per return was seventh-best among qualifiers. Meanwhile, RYAN SMITH led the team in kickoff returns (10). Other options include JOSH HUFF and second-round pick JUSTIN EVANS, who showed some burst as a returner for Texas A&M. JJ DEFENSE Tampa Bay’s defense took a bit of a step back after a resurgent 2015, finishing 22nd against both the run and the pass. On the bright side, they recorded 38 sacks, which were tied for ninth in the league, allowed fewer points per game (23.1) than in ‘15, and only two teams produced more than the team’s 29 takeaways. The Bucs finished 23rd in total defense and 15th in scoring defense last season, but the optimistic observer would point to their strong second half as proof they had grasped Smith’s scheme, and tab them as an up-and-comer among NFL defenses. The Bucs might be worth a look when the matchup is right, but they’re probably not worth drafting. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Only three NFL tight ends saw more red-zone targets than CAMERON BRATE last season, and only four of his peers received a higher percentage of their team’s targets inside the 20. Brate has obviously won Winston’s confidence when the chips are down, so don’t be too quick to write him out of your late-round fantasy plans based on Howard’s presence. [OVERVALUED] It’s easy to become enamored with OJ HOWARD’s tremendous skill set, but keep in mind that he only scored seven touchdowns at Alabama, and that there are numerous talented options at Winston’s disposal. History tells us that rookie tight ends often struggle to adjust to the NFL; don’t expect Howard to step in and post big numbers as a rookie.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 315 366 112 178 141 67 125 100 80
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 214 267 72 125 114 57 82 73 55
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $53 $16 $1 $5 $6 $1 $1
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TENNESSEE TITANS Matt Wilson
D
espite finishing the 2016 regular season tied with the Texans at 9-7 atop the AFC South, the upstart Titans were denied what would have been their first division title and playoff berth in eight years because they lost a division-record tiebreaker. Nevertheless, this young and competitive Tennessee team, one of the NFL’s biggest surprises, turned a lot of heads with victories over the Packers, Chiefs and Broncos. The Titans featured a potent DeMarco Murray-led “exotic smashmouth” rushing attack, which was the league’s third-most productive ground game. Meanwhile, Pro Bowler Brian Orakpo helped pace the NFL’s sixth-ranked pass rush.
With Tennessee trending in the right direction, GM Jon Robinson, loaded up with more than $60 million in cap space, cut some big checks in free agency to bolster the defense and special teams. Two of his biggest additions, Logan Ryan and Johnathan Cyprien, will anchor a revamped secondary, while Sylvester Williams will start at nose tackle. In the draft, Robinson focused on upgrading a painfully thin receiver corps to help rising star Marcus Mariota with the selections of first-round pick Corey Davis, and thirdrounders Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith. The Titans, with the core of their roster returning, should remain competitive, but they need improved play from the defense—particularly the re-worked secondary—to reach the postseason.
[HEAD COACH] Reactions to the hiring of MIKE MULARKEY ranged from raised eyebrows to fa-
cepalms, but the retread coach who few believed in has proved the critics wrong so far. By giving Tennessee an identity—the “exotic smashmouth” mantra—and improving the culture, he has completely turned this team around. Mularkey deserves credit for keeping his players focused after a shaky 1-3 start, but the Titans now need to take another step amid raised expectations.
wants to throw more, so an uptick in Mariota’s passing numbers is likely. However, don’t expect the Titans to stray too far from their run-first philosophy. Assuming no lingering issues with his surgically repaired leg, Mariota can be drafted as a solid QB2.
Second-year offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie will continue to feature a run-heavy twotight end base system, but he also plans to open up the passing game a bit. Legendary defensive boss Dick LeBeau returns for a third season to direct his trademark 3-4 zone blitz scheme.
JJ QUARTERBACK [STARTER] Shaking off a slow start to his sophomore campaign, MARCUS MARIOTA came on like gangbusters before suffering a broken fibula in Week 16. Mariota passed for 3,426 yards and 26 touchdowns against just nine picks while enjoying stellar protection (sacked 23 times); he also posted a solid 60-349-2 rushing line. The overhauled receiver corps suggests that Tennessee
[BACKUP] With Mariota on the mend, Tennessee opted to re-sign unimpressive MATT CASSEL
because the 35-year-old journeyman knows the offense. In four appearances (one start), Cassel connected on just 58.8 percent of his throws, totaling 284 yards and two touchdowns versus two picks. Avoid him in fantasy circles.
JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] There’s no longer any doubt that DEMARCO MURRAY’s quiet 2015 with the Eagles
was a fluke after watching him top the AFC with 1,287 yards on 293 carries to go along with nine touchdowns. He was steady catching passes out of the backfield as well, compiling a 53-377-3 receiving line. The powerful north-south runner faded late while playing through a foot injury, but at least it didn’t require surgery. While he’ll continue to operate as a workhorse, look for Tennessee to scale back the 29-year-old’s usage a bit. Even with fewer touches, Murray remains a midrange No. 1 fantasy back.
[BACKUP] While DERRICK HENRY’s rookie numbers—110 carries for 490 yards and five touchdowns—don’t jump off the page, it was a decent effort behind a bell-cow back. Listed at 247 pounds, the powerful but shifty Henry is nearly 30 pounds heavier than Murray and has a lot less mileage. The Titans plan to give Henry more work, which should include additional short-yardage and goal-line carries. As the complementary back, however, his unpredictable usage, which has fluctuated wildly from one week
Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
DEMARCO MURRAY
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RAIDERS @JAGUARS SEAHAWKS @TEXANS @DOLPHINS COLTS
SUN. SEP 10 SUN. SEP 17 SUN. SEP 24 SUN. OCT 01 SUN. OCT 08 MON. OCT 16
1:00PM 1:00PM 4:05PM 1:00PM 1:00PM 8:30PM
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to the next, is likely to continue. Henry is a smart handcuff or a standalone RB4.
[THIRD] Barring injuries, don’t expect to see much (if any) of DAVID FLUELLEN or seventhrounder KHALFANI MUHAMMAD. Last season
@BROWNS BYE RAVENS BENGALS @STEELERS @COLTS
SUN. OCT 22
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JJ WIDE RECEIVER [STARTER] Signed from Miami before last season, RISHARD MATTHEWS caught a team-high and personal-best nine touchdown passes—good for sixth-most in the NFL—while emerging as the Titans’ top receiving option. Despite splitting time early on with Andre Johnson, the underrated playmaker led the club with career highs in both catches (65; tied with Delanie Walker) and receiving yards (945) during his breakout campaign. At 6-foot, 217 pounds, he’s a goodsized target that’s more physical than fast. The team’s offseason receiver overhaul tamped down Matthews’ upside, but Mariota’s most-trusted wideout is still a solid WR3. [STARTER] How good is fifth overall selection COREY DAVIS? He left Western Michigan as
want to get him on the field. Taylor is worth a deep-league flier if Davis’ ankle issues linger.
[FOURTH] Following a competent overall start, TAJAE SHARPE faded badly over the final
[FIFTH] If either of Tennessee’s rookie wideouts
aren’t ready to contribute, reliable 10th-year pro
HARRY DOUGLAS could step in. Operating in
a very limited backup role, he made just 15 grabs (five in one contest) for 210 yards last season. His fantasy usefulness vanished years ago. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] Veteran DELANIE WALKER isn’t
the lone wolf in the receiving group anymore. Matthews topped Walker in targets, 108 to 102, which helped explain why his production dropped from 94 receptions for 1,088 yards in 2015 to 65 and 800 this past season. Walker, entering his age-33 campaign, will lose targets to the new weapons around him, but he can still play at a solid level and has Mariota’s trust. As such, Walker should retain solid TE1 value.
the NCAA’s all-time leader in receiving yards. The 6-foot-3, 209-pounder has the quickness of a No. 1 wideout, excellent route-running skills and the ability to play inside or out. Davis will see action as a deep threat and goal-line target, but the jump from the MAC to the NFL is substantial. Assuming he has no complications from offseason ankle surgery, Davis looks like an interesting fourth receiver with some upside.
[BACKUP] Tennessee’s other rookie third-round selection, JONNU SMITH, is a possible heir apparent to Walker. He’ll play right away in multiple tight end sets but is no threat to his mentor’s job this season. Undersized at 6-foot-3, 248 pounds, Smith relied on his impressive athleticism and 4.62 speed to set Florida International records for catches and receiving yards by a tight end. He may make occasional noise statistically, but he’s not a trusted fantasy asset yet.
every notable single-season and career receiving record at Western Kentucky, is expected to replace the departed Kendall Wright in the slot. Taylor brings slippery quick 4.52 speed to the table, making him a nightmare in the open field, though there are concerns about his hands. The Titans usually utilize a two-tight end base offense that doesn’t include a third wideout, but they
JJ SPECIAL TEAMS [KICKER] Unfortunately, the Titans’ successful ground game didn’t generate many extra scoring chances for RYAN SUCCOP. Kicking for an offense that improved from 28th to 14th in scoring, Succop went 22 of 24 (91.7 percent) on field goal attempts and 39-for-41 on PATs to amass 105 points (21st among kickers), which were all
[THIRD] Rookie TAYWAN TAYLOR, who broke
RB WR WR TE QB RB
DEMARCO MURRAY COREY DAVIS RISHARD MATTHEWS DELANIE WALKER MARCUS MARIOTA DERRICK HENRY
POSITION RANK (p.31) 7 34 50 6 13 34
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 18 59 63 95 106 114
SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
DEC 03 DEC 10 DEC 17 DEC 24 DEC 31
1:00PM 4:05PM 4:25PM 1:00PM 1:00PM
(ALL TIMES EASTERN)
month of his rookie season, finishing with just 41 receptions on 83 targeted throws for 522 yards and two touchdowns. While the former fifth-round selection has room to improve—he’s unlikely to make fantasy relevant strides this year.
the Murray/Henry tandem handled 469 of the 473 touches by Tennessee backs, and it remains a two-runner system. Fluellen, a practice squad holdover, had just eight touches last preseason. Muhammad will get a look on special teams.
TEXANS @CARDINALS @49ERS RAMS JAGUARS
personal bests as a Titan. Succop might be worth a look if Tennessee’s offense takes another big leap forward.
[RETURNERS] Free-agent addition ERIC WEEMS is the early favorite to replace departed
Marc Mariani as the team’s primary return man. Weems is set to face serious challenges, however, from rookies ADOREE’ JACKSON (eight combined return TDs at USC) and KHALFANI MUHAMMAD (87 kickoff returns at Cal). JJ DEFENSE Tennessee jumped from 27th to 16th in points allowed (23.6 per game), and the pass rush edged up from 39 to 40 sacks, which ranked sixth (tie). For the second year in a row, however, the Titans finished in the bottom 10 in takeaways, notching just 18 (tied for 23rd). Problems in the secondary (30th versus the pass) held this unit back, but the Titans think the additions of Logan Ryan, Johnathan Cyprien and Adoree’ Jackson will improve things dramatically. Brian Orakpo (team-high 10.5 sacks) also needs to stay healthy. Thanks to the pass rush, Tennessee is a decent streaming option, particularly at home. There’s also upside if the secondary improves. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] Keep an eye on TAYWAN TAYLOR. The Titans, who rely heavily on twowideout power formations, supposedly want to open up their passing attack by using more three-receiver sets, which would increase Taylor’s snaps. If Corey Davis’ surgically repaired ankle gives him problems, Taylor, who can play outside and inside, will likely outplay Tajae Sharpe and be the next guy up. [OVERVALUED] DELANIE WALKER remains
one of the better options at tight end, but his arrow is pointing down. With rookies Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith now in the mix, a drop in Walker’s targets is likely. Turning 33 in August, Walker has been prone to nagging injuries and has missed one game in each of the last four seasons.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 247 182 149 186 359 138
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 197 120 103 121 269 119
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $39 $6 $3 $9 $10 $4
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WASHINGTON Keith Hernandez
A
s the defending NFC East champions, Washington’s season didn’t start the way they wanted it to with tough home losses to the Steelers and Cowboys, but they turned things around quickly with four straight wins before a disappointing loss and tie in England heading into their Week 9 bye. Losses in four of their final six games sealed their fate and left them 8-7-1 and third in an improved NFC East. Washington’s high-flying offense led by Kirk Cousins put up 24.8 points (12th in the NFL) and 403.4 yards per game (third), but ultimately their mediocre defense would let them down. To put it mildly, it was a tumultuous offseason for Washington. Front-office strife led to the firing of GM Scot McCloughan, and the offense took a huge hit with the freeagent departures of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. In a rare move, Cousins was given the franchise tag for a second straight year as management continues to doubt his longterm value. Terrelle Pryor was brought in to help the passing game, and Samaje Perine was drafted to beef up the backfield after Washington utilized each of its first three draft picks on defense. Washington’s offense certainly has the chops to compete in the division, but their defense must step up for them to return to the postseason.
[HEAD COACH] Despite an overall losing record
during his three seasons in Washington (21-261), JAY GRUDEN was given a multi-year contract extension March 6, and he has guided the team to back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1996-97. While he doesn't have a wealth of NFL head coaching experience, Gruden served as an assistant for six years with the Bucs and worked as Cincy's offensive coordinator for three seasons. His offensive approach has vaulted Washington to a top-five unit the past two years. Sean McVay, the previous offensive coordinator, left for the Rams' head coaching gig and was replaced by quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh. The club also fired Joe Barry as the defensive coordinator and named 51-year-old Greg Manusky as his successor. JJ QUARTERBACK
[STARTER] Many still wonder whether KIRK COUSINS has what it takes to be a franchise
signal-caller, including his own front office. His numbers the last two seasons say yes. Cousins has led what has become a top-three offense and narrowly missed the 5,000-yard mark in 2016. He has passed for 54 touchdowns against 23 interceptions the last two years and should continue to
put up a safe statistical floor as a low-end QB1 for fantasy owners after attempting a career-high 606 passes in 2016. Despite key offseason departures in the receiving game, Cousins still has plenty of playmakers at his disposal. [BACKUP] COLT MCCOY has started just four
games during his three years in Washington and none since 2014—the soon-to-be 31-year-old has attempted 11 passes the last two years with Cousins as the full-time starter. McCoy lacks a strong arm, but he'd be serviceable in this offense if forced to start at any point. For fantasy purposes, however, he'd remain of no interest. JJ RUNNING BACK
[STARTER] As an undrafted rookie out of Tulane, ROBERT KELLEY worked his way up
the depth chart and eventually overtook Matt Jones for the final nine games. "Fat Rob" has added muscle this offseason in preparation for a 16-game schedule after running 168 times for 704 yards (4.2 YPC) and six touchdowns. Kelley only surpassed the 100-yard mark once in a game, though, and his production waned down the stretch with only 40 carries in the final three games. Limited versatility (12 receptions) and lack of long-term upside makes him vulnerable to losing touches down the line as a shaky RB3.
[BACKUP] At 26, CHRIS THOMPSON is the veteran in the running back room. He'll enter 2017 as the team's third-down specialist after snagging a career-high 49 receptions for 349 yards and two touchdowns last year. The shifty 5-foot-8, 195-pounder has the coaching staff's confidence and has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in 106 career attempts. The former Seminole is a sneaky target in point-per-reception leagues that could see more early-down work if Kelley falters. [THIRD] Fourth-round selection SAMAJE PERINE out of Oklahoma is a tough, physi-
cal runner that'll provide depth to an unproven ground game in Washington. The 233-pounder is at his best between the tackles and in shortyardage situations. Plus, while he seems built to handle a heavy workload on early downs, Perine also has solid hands and is capable in blitz pickup. Perine, already of interest in dynasty formats, might challenge for touches sooner rather than later and could become an excellent value pick in the later rounds, particularly in deep leagues. JJ WIDE RECEIVER
[STARTER] TERRELLE PRYOR, Washington's
top free-agent acquisition, immediately steps into the No. 1 receiving role to replace DeSean Jackson. In his first full season as a receiver with
Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
JJ COACH
ROBERT KELLEY
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EAGLES @RAMS RAIDERS @CHIEFS BYE 49ERS
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SUN. OCT 15
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Cleveland, Pryor managed 77 catches for 1,007 yards and four scores. The former Buckeye's size (6-foot-4, 223 pounds) and speed make him a dynamic weapon in any offense, let alone the high-flying passing attack in D.C. While there are still some questions about Pryor's ability to beat tight coverage, he should be able to surpass his 2016 numbers with Cousins throwing to him. As such, Pryor rates as a decent WR2. [STARTER] JOSH DOCTSON, the team's
first-round pick a year ago, missed all of training camp and then appeared in just two games due to mysterious Achilles' injuries in both legs. He seems healthy now and will be asked to take on a significant role across from Pryor. Doctson's speed and vertical athleticism made him one of the better receiving prospects in his draft class, and if he can stay healthy he should see plenty of opportunities in 2017. If you're looking for someone with big upside late in drafts, Doctson could fit the bill.
[THIRD] Minus D-Jax and Garcon, JAMISON CROWDER is the team's top returning wideout on
the strength of his 67-847-7 line this past season. Like many slot receivers, the undersized Crowder is quicker than fast and is dangerous with the ball in his hands—his 386 yards after the catch in 2016 were 12th among NFL receivers. Gruden plans on keeping Crowder on the field, even when the team isn't going three-wide, and the third-year pro is probably the safest option among Washington's receivers. More targets and a more versatile role have Crowder's fantasy stock on the rise as a WR3 target.
[FOURTH] BRIAN QUICK never lived up to his
second-round pedigree in five seasons with the Rams, but he posted a career-high 41 catches in 2016. The 28-year-old will hope to build on that in becoming part of a new-look receiving corps. His 6-foot-3, 218-pound frame will be useful in the red zone, but five years of lackluster production should keep him off fantasy rosters.
WR TE WR WR RB QB RB RB TE WR
TERRELLE PRYOR JORDAN REED JAMISON CROWDER JOSH DOCTSON ROBERT KELLEY KIRK COUSINS SAMAJE PERINE CHRIS THOMPSON VERNON DAVIS ERIC DECKER
@EAGLES COWBOYS @SEAHAWKS VIKINGS @SAINTS GIANTS
MON. OCT 23 SUN. OCT 29 SUN. NOV 05 SUN. NOV 12 SUN. NOV 19 THU. NOV 23
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pushed for a roster spot after catching 39 passes for 412 yards over his first three seasons in D.C. Among the other contenders is sixth-round pick ROBERT DAVIS, a physical specimen that tested well at the combine but is in for a culture shock jumping from Georgia State to the NFL. Bypass them both. JJ TIGHT END
[STARTER] When healthy, JORDAN REED is
a surefire TE1 in fantasy, but the problem for the former Gator has been staying on the field. Reed has never played a full season in four years in the NFL, missing 18 of a possible 64 games, but he has managed a whopping 17 touchdowns the last two seasons as Cousins' favorite red-zone target. The tight end's ceiling could be as high as ever in 2017, too, as he should be asked to take on a bigger pass-catching role. Reed will fly off the board early as a high-risk, high-reward fantasy starter.
[BACKUP] VERNON DAVIS' career looked to
be winding down before being rejuvenated in Washington with 44 catches, 583 yards and two touchdowns last season. The 33-year-old benefitted from missed time from Reed and remains on the fringes of fantasy relevance for his speed and pass-catching prowess in this high-flying aerial attack. He's not worth drafting, but Davis would be an attractive in-season addition if Reed goes down again. JJ SPECIAL TEAMS
strong, making 13 of 14 field goals and 10 of 11 extra points in the first five weeks. The 26-yearold missed seven field goals and two extra points in the final 12 games, however, and finished 34-for-42 (81 percent) on FGAs. By any measure it was a disappointing finish, but Hopkins has low-end kicker appeal in what should once again be a high-scoring offense.
POSITION RANK (p.31) 24 4 38 60 33 12 45 55 25 55
MOCK DRAFT PICK (p.76) 25 42 57 72 100 113 119
90
THU. SUN. SUN. SUN. SUN.
NOV 30 DEC 10 DEC 17 DEC 24 DEC 31
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[FIFTH] Fourth-year pro RYAN GRANT will be
[KICKER] DUSTIN HOPKINS started 2016
@COWBOYS @CHARGERS CARDINALS BRONCOS @GIANTS
[RETURNERS] Washington brings back their leading return men in CHRIS THOMPSON and JAMISON CROWDER. Those two will likely assume their roles, but WILL BLACKMON and rookie MAURICE HARRIS could also be in the
mix in 2017.
JJ DEFENSE Washington's defense was their Achilles' heel in 2016, ranking 28th in yards allowed per game (377.9) and 19th in points (23.9). They were also last in third-down defense (46.6 percent conversion rate). The silver lining was a pass rush that finished ninth in sacks with 38—led by Ryan Kerrigan's 11. Still, it's easy to see why Washington invested their first three draft picks on defense with Jonathan Allen, Ryan Anderson and Fabian Moreau. D.J. Swearinger should help bolster the secondary alongside All-Pro Josh Norman, and linebacker Zach Brown brings veteran depth in the middle. Still, anything less than major improvement would leave Washington's D fantasy irrelevant in most leagues. Steer clear. JJ EXTRA POINTS [UNDERVALUED] With Washington's offense losing more than 40 percent of their 2016 passing yards, JAMISON CROWDER has a huge opportunity. Entering his third season in the league, Crowder was often overshadowed by Jackson and Garcon, but he quietly has become one of the best slot receivers around and has a great shot to top 1,000 yards for the first time.
[OVERVALUED] With Washington talking up ROBERT KELLEY's role this offseason, fantasy
owners may overpay for the No. 1 back on the depth chart. Questions remain as to whether the 24-year-old can carry the load for a full season— he averaged 3.98 YPC in his nine starts. There's a reason Washington drafted Samaje Perine and has high hopes for Chris Thompson.
NFFC POINTS (p.83) 200 213 176 125 140 364 104 83 109 139
STD POINTS SCORING (p.84) 128 137 116 80 126 269 79 55 70 88
AUCTION $ VALUE (p.82) $11 $12 $5 $1 $6 $11 $1 $1 $1 $2
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ALL ABOUT CLUTCH RATE: WINNING WITH CONSISTENCY By Bob Lung
Consistency is very important in fantasy football’s head-to-head format, yet very few fantasy football owners incorporate this information in their drafts and matchup decisions. Anyone who has played the game for any length of time at all knows how frustrating it can be for your fantasy players to score 30 points one week, then five the next. How many times have you been one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but ended up missing the playoffs by one or two games? Many call it “bad luck,” and that’s partially true, as all kinds of bad unpredictable things—injuries to key players, bad weather, a bad call, to name but a few—negatively affect fantasy teams. These variables are uncontrollable. You can only shake your head. But one aspect of fantasy football beyond talent is controllable, and that is the consistency of your team!
JJQUARTERBACKS UNDERVALUED – KIRK COUSINSJ
The Clutch system identified Cousins as a breakout player last year, and he produced as predicted. He ended the season ranked tied for sixth, with a 70-percent Clutch Rate, tying Drew Brees, who was second in total points. Cousins’ early ADP is QB No. 11. He should continue his consistency in 2017, so don’t be afraid to wait on him. OVERVALUED – CAM NEWTONJ
Newton went from MVP to CRAP in one year. However, his early ADP for 2017 is QB No. 6. Newton has never been consistent, even in 2015. While he was ranked first in total points in 2015, his Clutch Rate was 69 percent, tying for fifth place in consistency. Please don’t draft him based on the name and the past. Let someone else have him.
JJRUNNING BACKS UNDERVALUED – FRANK GOREJ
Yes, I know he’s like 50 years old, but he’s not dead yet. Let’s be honest, if the Colts were worried, wouldn’t they have drafted a running back before Round 4 to replace him? Truth is, Gore ended 2016 with a 70-percent Clutch Rate, tying him with Devonta
JARVIS LANDRY
Clutch Rates, going from 60 percent to 64 to 69 over the last three years respectively. His early ADP is WR No. 4 with an overall ADP of eighth! Are you kidding me? The Buccaneers added O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson. If Evans couldn’t be consistent before, how’s it going to get any better in 2017?
JJTIGHT ENDS UNDERVALUED – KYLE RUDOLPHJ
Freeman of the Falcons. His early ADP is RB No. 27! I’d be surprised if it stayed that low, but many fantasy owners don’t like old guys. I don’t care about age, consistency is consistency. Gore will be on my teams! OVERVALUED – JAY AJAYIJ
Jay Ajayi rushed for a combined 735 yards across four separate games last year, but only 537 yards over the other 12. That, my friends, is inconsistent! Ajayi ended the year with a 47-percent Clutch Rate even though he ranked 11th in total points. Little has changed in Miami to make you believe he’s going to become more consistent. I’d pass on him.
JJWIDE RECEIVERS UNDERVALUED – JARVIS LANDRYJ
Landry turned in a second-straight season with better than a 75-percent Clutch Rate. He will continue, however, to be ignored as a top receiver. His early ADP is WR No. 17. With no real big changes occurring to the Miami offense in the off-season, there’s no reason to believe Landry cannot exceed 75 percent again in 2017. He’ll be a great value as a WR2 on your team! OVERVALUED – MIKE EVANSJ
Every year, I tell fantasy owners not to draft Evans too high. Yet, every year, his ADP gets higher! He has been improving with his
Quick question: Who was the most consistent tight end in 2016? Gronk? Kelce? Olsen? Nope, it was Rudolph. His 75-percent Clutch Rate was 12 points higher than second place. Rudolph hasn’t been very consistent in the past, but the emergence of Sam Bradford and his lack of arm strength at quarterback, made Rudolph very important in the passing game. Bradford remains the quarterback in 2017, which means Rudolph should be a consistent factor, especially with his early ADP at TE of No. 11. OVERVALUED – MARTELLUS BENNETTJ
Bennett filled in for Rob Gronkowski for half of last season and still only earned a Clutch Rate of 50 percent for the year. He went to the Packers in the off-season and all of a sudden he’s in the top 10 for tight ends. He may make it into the Top-10, but I wouldn’t get too giddy about him. Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball around to many of the other receivers not named Jordy Nelson. Don’t reach too high for Bennett.
SUMMARY By adding Clutch Rating to your arsenal
of fantasy tools, you will see why it’s so important to have good and consistent fantasy players on your team. You can check out my website at www.BigGuyFantasySports.com or follow me on Twitter @bob_lung. This season, start dominating your fantasy league with consistency instead of luck!
Photo: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
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he more consistent a player is, the more beneficial they are to their fantasy team. How do you determine if a player is consistent in your league? You can easily look this up on my website (BigGuyFantasySports.com). A player’s consistency rate is referred to as “Clutch Rating (CR).” A highly consistent fantasy player will have a CR of more than 70 percent. The elite studs of the fantasy world will normally be better than 80-90 percent. I have identified Undervalued players who may not be highly ranked in total fantasy points, but because they were very consistent were crucial to their fantasy team’s success. In addition, I have identified Overvalued players based on their lack of consistency. Here are my some of my Under and Overvalued Players (PPR scoring) heading into the 2017 season.
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Odds of a child becoming a professional athlete: 1 in 16,000 Odds of a child being diagnosed with autism: 1 in 68
Some signs to look for:
No big smiles or other joyful expressions by 6 months.
No babbling by 12 months.
No words by 16 months.
To learn more of the signs of autism, visit autismspeaks.org © 2017 Autism Speaks Inc. “Autism Speaks” and “It’s Time To Listen” & design are trademarks owned by Autism Speaks Inc. All rights reserved.
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