ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science by The Imagination Agency Pty Ltd

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Issued: 02 UTC Thu, Feb 9 2017 Â© Commonwealth of Australia 2017

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©Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 2016 Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Annual Report 2016 The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is financially supported via a grant from the Australian Research Council (CE110001028). The Centre is financed and hosted by the University of New South Wales. Collaborating partners are Monash University, the University of Melbourne, the University of Tasmania and the Australian National University. They provide significant financial support. The Centre is also financially supported by the Federal Department of Environment, by the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, and by the NSW Government’s State Leveraging Fund. Images Photography: Stephen Gray, Andrew Pitman, Bronwen Smith, D Alesandro, Nadja Herger, The Imagination Agency Pty Ltd, Stock Libraries of Australian Images. Document Report: Claire Carouge, Vilia Co, Stephen Gray, Melissa Hart, Andy Pitman, Swa Rath, Alvin Stone and Chief Investigators Editor: Kathy Murfitt Design: Helena Brusic, The Imagination Agency Pty Ltd Paper and Printing Print: FAASTPRINT Paper: Spicers’ Revive Pure 100% Recycled Revive Pure Silk 100% Recycled is certified carbon neutral and FSC® Recycled. It is manufactured process chlorine free (PCF) by an ISO 14001 certified mil. Sales of Revive Pure support Landcare Australia and the restoration and replanting of landfill sites throughout Australia

CONTENTS Vision ....................................................................................................................... 4 Aims and Objectives .............................................................................................. 5 Overview ................................................................................................................. 6 Chairman’s Report .................................................................................................. 7 Director’s Report .................................................................................................... 8 Strategic Plan .......................................................................................................... 10 Partnerships and International Engagement ...................................................... 11 Centre Structure, Governance and Management ............................................... 16 Organisational Chart ..................................................................................................................20 Personnel ........................................................................................................................................21 Chief Investigators ......................................................................................................................24 Research Programs ................................................................................................ 32 Overview .........................................................................................................................................32 Program 1: The Effects of Tropical Convection on Australia’s Climate ...................34 Program 2: Mechanisms Explaining Changes in Australian Climate Extremes .........................................................................................................................................40 Program 3: The Role of Land Surface Forcing and Feedbacks for Regional Climate .........................................................................................................................46 Program 4: Drivers of Spatial and Temporal Climate Variability in Extra-tropical Australia ..............................................................................................................52 Program 5: Mechanisms and Attribution of Past and Future Ocean Circulation Change .....................................................................................................................60 Computational Modelling Systems ...................................................................... 62 CMS Profiles ..................................................................................................................................66 The Graduate Program .......................................................................................... 67 PhD Student Profiles ..................................................................................................................71 Media Coverage ..................................................................................................... 75 Publications ............................................................................................................ 77 Awards, Distinctions, Outreach and Engagement .............................................. 85 Performance Measures .......................................................................................... 83 Financial Statement ............................................................................................... 89 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure ........................................................................................91

VISION

We will revolutionize our understanding of the Australian climate system by transforming the scale and quality of climate system science in Australian universities, linked with national and international partners.

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AIMS & OBJECTIVES

The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is taking on the challenge to resolve the key uncertainties undermining our understanding of the Australian climate system. Focusing on observed changes over the last 10002000 years and the last 100 years provides us the laboratory for understanding the processes and mechanisms that affect our climate. This understanding provides the foundation to address limits to the reliable projection of Australian climate at regional scales over the next 50-100 years. Climate change has been described as the most fundamental security challenge for our long-term future. Yet there remains an unacceptable level of uncertainty in many areas of climate system science, including how climate will change at regional scales and how specific phenomena, including extremes of climate, will change. To address these weaknesses in climate system science, the ARC Centre of Excellence is engaging in fundamental research with national and international organisations. The resolution of these problems through this research will benefit Australia and will have a profound effect on the way climate is modelled and understood around the world.

The aims of the Centre are: to undertake world-class research specifically targeted to the fundamental weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system; to integrate the Centre’s research with national and international Partner Organisations through the development of a national framework of computational tools and human resources; to develop a world-leading program of graduate training and mentoring to expand the pool of climate researchers and develop future leaders in the field; and to bring together graduate students and postdoctoral fellows into one organisation -- the Centre of Excellence – irrespective of institution. The ultimate goal of the ARC Centre of Excellence is to reset the foundations of the science behind climate modelling, to create the next generation of world-leading climate scientists and to create international links that will serve Australia’s climate science community now and long into the future.

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OVERVIEW

The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is a major initiative funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC). The Centre is a consortium of five Australian universities and a suite of outstanding national and international Partner Organisations. We are building on and improving our understanding of the modelling of global and regional climates to enable enhanced adaptation to, and management of, climate change, particularly in the Australian region. The ARC Centre of Excellence was established in July 2011 with extensive investment from the ARC, the University of New South Wales, the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, New South Wales Government, Monash University, the Australian National University, the University of Melbourne, and the University of Tasmania. We have strong links with CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), and through them with the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) initiative. The Centre works in partnership with the National Computational Infrastructure Facility (NCI) and the Australian National Data Service. The Centre’s focus, climate system science, is the quantitative study of the climate system designed to enable modelling of the future of the climate system. It is built on a core of the sciences of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface. It includes the physics, dynamics and biology of these systems and the flow of energy, water and chemicals between them. Climate system science builds mathematical models of these systems based on observations. It describes these observations, and the underlying physics of the system, in computer codes. These computer codes, the “climate model”, utilise very large supercomputers. Most of our work is therefore linked with the ACCESS model, which is co-built by BoM and CSIRO, and uses the high-performance computers provided by NCI.

The scale of research enabled by the Centre provides for the enhancement of climate modelling and future climate projections, particularly at regional scales, minimising Australia’s economic, social and environmental vulnerability to climate change. Our goal, to resolve key uncertainties for Australia’s future regional climate, touches on a broad suite of the Federal Government’s 2015 Science and Research Priorities. Our fundamental objective is to improve the understanding and simulation of climate at global and regional scales. Achieving this will directly inform communities that need regionally specific knowledge of future climate. In each of our research programs we directly contribute to both the Environmental Change and the Soil and Water priorities in the aforementioned suite. Gaining a better understanding of our climate, particularly climate extremes, has clear relevance via translational research into the Health priority. Our Land research program is producing results that are particularly applicable to the Food priority. The ARC Centre of Excellence is also an enabling research initiative. By improving the capacity to simulate Australian climate, we provide the foundation for a range of climate impacts and adaptation research undertaken by the research community.

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FROM THE CHAIR OF THE ADVISORY BOARD

On behalf of the Advisory Board, I commend the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) for the exceptional work it has performed in 2016 and for the impact of its world class research. This annual report, the Centre’s sixth, showcases the success that results from bringing together the complementary skills and insights of a substantial group of extremely talented and committed people.

global, regional and local scales. Based on the scientific breakthroughs and enhanced modelling capabilities that ARCCSS has achieved since 2011, the new centre is ideally positioned to examine the processes that drive extreme events, often at very fine resolution. Indeed, Andy and his leadership team are to be commended for the vision, courage and ambition to establish the world’s first centre dedicated solely to researching climate extremes.

Researchers across the Centre have collaborated with each other and with partners from all regions of the planet to publish new and groundbreaking science in top journals. The Centre’s stature and the calibre of its researchers has been recognised through numerous awards and admissions to learned societies here and abroad.

I congratulate everyone involved on an excellent year, and wish to convey my personal thanks for the privilege of having been associated with such a wonderful group of dedicated and dynamic researchers.

Much of that science has subsequently been disseminated to a wider audience via comment and Op Eds in traditional and online media, especially The Conversation. Additionally, Centre researchers – ranging from senior professors to honours students – have participated in public forums, talks to schools and community groups and engaged with business and government decision makers. Of special note is the funding (from 2017) of a new ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes that will take Australian climate science into new and exciting realms. The focus of ARCCSS has been on gaining a more detailed understanding of climate means and averages across

Laureate Professor Peter Doherty AC FAA FRS Chair, Advisory Board

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Director’s Report Headline Achievements for 2016

173 peer-reviewed publications

DECRAs won by Leela Francombe and Alejandro Di Luca

ARC Fellowships: Andrea Taschetto, Nerilie Abrams, Shayne McGregor

Tasmanian Tall Poppy Award – our fourth state award – went to Stephanie Downes

Prof Christian Jakob won the American Geophysical Union’s Ascent Award in the Atmospheric Science Section

AMOS awards: the Early Career Researcher Award to Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and the AMOS Uwe Radok Award for 2016 went to Tim Cowan

Benjamin Henley was awarded the 2016 GN Alexander Medal at the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium in New Zealand

ARCCSS awards went to Martin Bergemann, Markus Donat and Stephen Gray

Prof Matthew England and Prof Harry Hendon were elected to the American Geophysical Union

Major paper first authored by PhD student Aarian Purich and others in Nature Communications on Antarctic sea ice coverage

Our PhD student cohort grew to 96 – an increase from 87 in 2015

Ranked Number 2 Centre in Australia in the Nature Index on Scientific Collaboration

Sophie Lewis established what the term “new normal” means in scientific terms and showed that a new normal for climate may appear in the mid 2020s

Markus Donat published groundbreaking research in Nature Climate Change showing dry areas over land would get wetter with global warming

Andrew King published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters showing climate change could be detected in the instrumental record in the 1930s

Research by Jatin Kala published in Nature Scientific Reports shows different plant types can affect temperatures by 3-5°C

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This is the sixth annual report of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS). I think 2016 was the most challenging year for the Centre to date. Navigating the ultimately successful submission to the Australian Research Council (ARC) for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes was demanding, and had to be accomplished while maintaining activity, strategy and energy in the ARCCSS. I am delighted to note that despite the challenges, 2016 has proven a highly successful year of publications, PhD completions, other successful ARC grant applications, and awards. Through 2016 the Centre published 173 articles in the peer-reviewed literature. That included our usual successes in the Nature family of journals including two papers in Nature itself. A particular highlight was Ariaan Purich’s Nature Communications paper – a tremendous achievement for a PhD student. It is particularly delightful how of the 13 papers in the Nature family, authors included Nerilie Abram, Ruth Lorenz, Markus Donat, Nicola Maher and Laurie Menviel, who are all early career researchers. Of course, most of our publications are in the highest quality specialist journals and we can celebrate 14 papers in Journal of Climate, 17 papers in Geophysical Research Letters and 15 papers in Journal of Geophysical Research . As usual, the full list is provided in this report, and many of these and other papers are profiled in the research reports. Our graduate program, led by Melissa Hart, remains a jewel in our crown. We again ran writing workshops and supported coding academies. We had 96 PhD students enrolled in 2016, with 16 new students and 15 completions. We therefore continue to grow. Importantly, our graduate destinations remain impressive, including positions in Cambridge University, University of Edinburgh, and the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting internationally, and CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. A key to our graduate program is our annual winter school. This year the focus was on tropical meteorology, highlighting both a research program in tropical convection and a focus on the Maritime Continent. We had 59 participants, including students from Centre Collaborating Organisations, and Partner Organisation CSIRO, but also from the Federation University, Murdoch University and the University of Auckland. Many Centre Chief Investigators presented lectures at the school and I would like to thank Dr Dietmar Dommenget, Prof Christian Jakob, A/Prof Todd Lane and Prof Steve Sherwood for their ongoing support of this core activity. A Centre of Excellence would not be excellent if our researchers did not win independent funding and awards. Two Centre researchers won Discovery Early Career Researcher Awards (DECRA): (Leela Francombe and Alejandro DiLuca). I’d also like to congratulate former Centre research fellow Jatin Kala, now at Murdoch University, who won a DECRA. Three ARC Future Fellowships were won by Andrea Taschetto, Nerilie Abrams and Shayne McGregor. Both DECRAs and Future Fellows are extraordinarily challenging to win and all deserve our congratulations. Centre researchers also won some major awards. Christian Jakob won the American Geophysical Union’s Atmospheric

Science Section Ascent Award. Tasmania’s Young Tall Poppy award for 2016 was won by Stephanie Downes. Two Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) awards were also won by our researchers, including the Early Career Researcher Award to Sarah KirkpatrickPerkins and the AMOS Uwe Radok Award 2016 to Tim Cowan. Benjamin Henley was awarded the 2016 GN Alexander Medal at the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Queenstown, NZ. The Centre awards its own prizes each year, to recognize particularly impressive contributions by a student and an early career researcher. Best Paper by a Student was awarded to Martin Bergemann for his paper, How important is tropospheric humidity for coastal rainfall in the tropics?. Best Paper by an Early Career Researcher was awarded to Markus Donat for his paper, More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Congratulations to both, and my thanks to all those who nominated and who helped with the assessment process. Finally, the Director’s Prize was awarded to Stephen Gray for an outstanding contribution to the Centre over a sustained period of time. Finally, two Centre researchers were elected to the American Geophysical Union: Matthew England and Harry Hendon. This is a phenomenal achievement, well deserved and timely. Our research through 2016 has been at the highest level, with major successes. I am not going to repeat what is provided in the research summary, or the report on activities from the Computational Modelling Services team. These provide details on specific discoveries, advanced visualizations, new modelling capabilities, new data sets and so on. The reports document a year in which we have exceeded our agreed key performance indicators across all measures. In addition to reporting on 2016, the research summaries again highlight our intent for 2017 and 2018. We welcome contact from researchers with similar interests wishing to collaborate on these intentions. This is expected to be my final Director’s Report on the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. I have to resign this role to take on the equivalent position in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. Transition arrangements are currently being considered by the ARC but the expectation is to transfer to Professor Christian Jakob from the end of June 2017. We anticipate maintaining very similar administrative, graduate program, computational and investigator team structures in the new centre, so there are few “good-byes” and more “emerging challenges”- but I should formally thank everyone for their help and support through the last five years. It is impossible to run a centre without active and collegial teams and we have always managed to maintain both. Finally, I will finish on a sad note. We celebrate research fellows moving on to new positions, or PhD students who complete and move to new jobs. I suppose I should therefore celebrate Stephen Gray’s departure for greener pastures but that would be disingenuous. As most of you reading this know, Stephen has been Centre Manager and Chief Operations Officer for our entire existence and has been phenomenal in these roles. I do congratulate Stephen and wish him every success of course and thank him for all his support and encouragement over the years.

Professor Andy Pitman, Director

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Strategy Our Research Goals

Our Research Strategy

Improve our understanding of tropical convection and its role in climate variability and change and build this understanding into models

We undertake transformative blue-sky research with a critical mass of world-class climate system scientists based on a seven-year strategy

Determine the risks posed from climate variability and change and enhance our capacity to predict how extremes will change in the future Improve our understanding of regional-scale land surface forcing and feedbacks and build this understanding into models Improve our understanding of the links between Australian climate variability and large-scale climate modes in the extra-tropics Improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the ocean circulation, its variability, response to change and impact on biogeochemical cycling.

Our Vision: We will revolutionize our understanding of the Australian climate system by transforming the scale and quality of climate system science in Australian universities, linked with national and international partners

We develop and respond to ground-breaking ideas with vigour and commitment We are building a national climate modelling infrastructure using our dedicated Computational Modelling Support team We educate the next generation of Australia’s climate scientists by transforming the graduate student experience at the national scale We will openly collaborate nationally and internationally We will define overarching research questions that integrate Centre activities and strengths

Our Values

We are successful when:

Internationally outstanding science, published in elite journals

Our graduate students are outstanding and in demand We collaborate without impact from institutional barriers Our papers have impact on international science Our science is included in Australian and overseas models Researchers want to join our team Technology is no barrier to our science We communicate our science accurately

A world-class education for our students and postdoctoral researchers Unrestricted access to our tools, data and knowledge Honest and clear communication of our science A desire to deliver more than we promise

We will communicate our science to the public and to policy makers with honesty, accuracy and integrity.

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES:

Transform the quality and scale of University research

Transform graduate education at the national scale

Transform national Transform climate science tools collaboration at all scales

Transform universitybased advice to stakeholders

SUCCESS PILLARS

Our research program

Our graduate program

Our Computational Modeling program

Our outreach program

STRATEGIC ACTIONS. WE WILL:

1.1

National climate science fabric

2.1 Develop a national 3.1 Build modelling 4.1 Establish structures 5.1 Focus on crossinstitutional research graduate program and analysis that encourage published in high led by a Graduate tools to support cross-institutional quality journals (A Director Australian climate research and A*) research 1.2 Ensure the Centre has 2.2 Co-supervise PhDs 3.2 Serve the ACCESS 4.2 Conduct national 5.2 a major national and across institutions model and its workshops and international impact components in training programs a user-friendly framework 1.3 Engage nationally 2.3 Enable students to 3.3 Serve data for 4.3 Conduct regular 5.3 and internationally via collaborate across models and from cross-institutional a targeted exchange institutions models in a userresearch team program friendly framework meetings 1.4

Increase the number 2.4 Conduct annual of organizations winter schools to collaborating with the educate, train and Centre build relationships

1.5

Identify gaps in our research and attract additional funding to resolve them

2.5

Grow the PhD cohort via scholarships and support

Interact with our Board and Advisory group on key strategic issues 3.5 Develop and share 4.5 Contribute all tools using strongly to world-standard National Research software practices Priorities 3.4

Build a virtual climate laboratory in collaboration with key partners

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4.4

5.4

5.5

Develop a media and communications strategy led by a media officer Develop a website that is relevant, informative and up to date Communicate Centre research to schools, to encourage and inform Brief business, industry and government on our science Develop educational resources for the community

RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS & INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT Our Partners

The Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) has a large network of Partner Organisations at both national and international level. Our relationships with our partners continued to be strong and fruitful throughout 2016 – at both the researcherto-researcher level and at higher, strategic institutional levels in terms of cooperating on research priorities.

Administering Institution The University of New South Wales

Collaborating Institutions

As outlined below, we saw numerous visits to and from Partner Organisations, including a number of extended stays, both of inbound visitors and of Centre of Excellence staff and students travelling abroad. In 2016, 79 per cent of our publications included cross-institutional authors and more than half (57 per cent) included one or more overseas authors, which shows the global reach and significance of the Centre.

The Australian National University Monash University The University of Melbourne The University of Tasmania

Australian Partner Organisations Australian National Data Service Bureau of Meteorology CSIRO Department of the Environment National Computational Infrastructure

International Partner Organisations and Collaborators Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA) Hadley Centre – Meteorological Office (UK) LMD – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (France) Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (Germany) NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center (USA) National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) National Centre for Atmospheric Science (UK) The University of Arizona (USA) The University of Oxford (UK)

We have strived to create as many opportunities as possible for staff and students to meaningfully interact with researchers from institutions other than their own university. This includes 217 person-days spent on visits by students and staff among the five nodes of the Centre. This is in addition to almost daily video conference meetings and collaborations between researchers and research programs. This year we hosted 35 overseas visitors, many visiting more than one of the ARCCSS university nodes. These visitors came from a variety of labs all over the world, including formal Partner Organisations, where our researchers maintain established ties and develop emerging collaborative ones. Our university nodes also hosted over a dozen inbound visits from scientists and data specialists from Australian Partner Organisations, other universities, business and government departments. PhD student Yue Li spent four months at US Partner Organisation NCAR. Another of our PhD students, Nadia Herger, spent a month working with partners at ETH Zurich. CI Lisa Alexander spent an extended time in Exeter visiting the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre. Deepening our ties into Asia, Dr Ryo Furue from the Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology spent seven weeks working with staff at UNSW and UTAS in our Oceans program. From Taiwan National University we hosted a four-week visit by Dr Ke-Sheng Cheng. These visits not only enhance the experience of those who conduct them, but they illustrate the breadth, depth and interconnectedness of our science on the national and global stage.

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Visitor Map

2016 Inbound Visitors (Visitors from our Partner Organisations in bold)

Igel, M. University of Miami (USA)

Ackerman, T. University of Washington (USA)

Langematz, U. Frei Universitat Berlin (Germany)

Camargo, S. Columbia University (USA)

Lehodey, P. CLS, Space Oceanography Division (France)

Cheng, K. National Taiwan University (Taiwan)

llanillo, P. U. Santiago (Chile)

Douglas, M. Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (USA)

Mantripragada, S. IIT Kharagpur (India)

Forster, P. University of Leeds (UK) Furue, R. JAMSTEC (Japan) Ganachaud, A. Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (France)

McCreary, J. University of Hawaii (USA) Mcmanus, J. Columbia University (USA) Menezes, V. Woodâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Hole (USA) Murphy, J. UK Met Office (UK)

Gettelman, A. NCAR (USA)

Peter, H. Harvard University (USA)

Giogetta, M. Max Plank Institute for Meteorology (Germany)

Rahmstorf, S. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany)

Grant, L. Colorado State University (USA)

Schaefer, H. NIWA (New Zealand)

Griffies, S. GFDL Princeton University (USA)

Stott, P. Hadley Centre/Met Office (UK)

Harrington, L. Victoria University Wellington (New Zealand)

Sun, J. Ocean University China (China)

Hawkins, E. University of Reading (UK)

Uhe, P. University of Oxford (UK)

Heng, P. National Environment Agency, Singapore (Singapore)

Wells, M. University of Toronto (Canada) Yu, T. Harbin University (China)

Huybers, P. Harvard University (USA)

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ARCCSS Staff and Student 2016 Destinations (major scientific meetings and lab visits) Abram, N. USA

King, A. Canada, UK, USA

Abramowitz, G. USA

Lago, V. Singapore

Alexander, K. USA

Lane, T. Singapore, USA

Alexander, L. UK

Lewis, S. USA

Angelil, O. Canada, Switzerland

Li, Y. USA

Bador, M. New Caledonia

Lipson, M. Cyprus

Bao, J. USA

Llort, J. France

Barthel, A. USA

Moebis, B. Mexico, Brazil, Germany

Bindoff, N. New Zealand, China

Murphy, J. USA

Boucharel, J. USA

Nikurashin, M. USA

Bull, C. USA

Oliver, E. Costa Rica, Canada

Catto, J. Austria, Switzerland

Pepler, A. Austria

Contractor, S. Canada, Germany, USA

Perry, S. USA

Decker, M. France, USA

Pitman, A. Hong Kong

Di Luca, A. USA

Ramsay, H. Puerto Rico

Dias, F. China

Reeder, M. UK

Dixit, V. USA

Roderick, M. China, USA

Dommenget, D. Austria

Roderick, M. USA

Dommenget, D. Germany

Santoso, A. Indonesia, China

Donat, M. USA

Shakespeare, C. USA

England, M. USA

Sherwood, S. UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy

Fiddes, S. New Zealand

Smyth, R. USA

Gibson, A. USA

Snow, K. USA

Goldie, J. Japan, Italy

Spence, P. Japan, Canada

Gray, S. Malaysia, New Zealand

Steffen, W. Philippines, New Zealand, Norway, Qatar

Harman, I. UK

Strutton, P. China, USA

Hart, M. Hong Kong

Taschetto, A. USA

Haughton, N. USA

Ukkola, A. USA

Herger, N. Switzerland, USA

Vincent, C. New Zealand, USA

Herold, N. Barbados, Fiji, UK, Switzerland, India

Vogel, E. Germany, France

Hirsch, A. Austria

Wolff, H. UK

Hogg, A. USA

Wurtzel, J. Singapore, USA

Holbrook, N. Costa Rica, Spain Jakob, C. Switzerland, Germany, USA, France Karoly, D. New Zealand, Canada, USA

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The observations taken during this voyage will have a direct impact on modelling of the Southern Ocean, which has a large influence on Australian and global climate.

All aboard for ARCCSS partnerships of the instrumentation that measured temperature, depth and salinity and regards the cruise as an extraordinary learning experience. The measurements taken are vital for international climate research.

ot all ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) research happens on a computer. This year has been a year of ocean voyages for many of our students and senior researchers, who have moved out into the field to take much-needed observations. The voyages started very early in the year with PhD student David Webb being invited to be a part of the US GO-SHIP program. The GO-SHIP program was formally established in 2007 by the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) and Climate

Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) to develop a strategy for a sustained global repeat hydrography program. Prior to this, informal surveys had been carried out since the early 1970s. The program is an international collaboration that takes in many of our major Partner Organisations, including CSIRO and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In April/May, ARCCSS students and researchers took part in a voyage on the research vessel Investigator with colleagues from the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. The voyage had three main missions:  to retrieve and redeploy Australian Integrated Marine Observing System moorings in the Southern Ocean;  to take observations of Southern Ocean clouds to improve modelling and satellite interpretation of these clouds; and  to get high-resolution two-dimensional slices of eddies in the Southern Ocean.

ARCCSS researchers Associate Professor Peter David Webb was aboard Strutton and Dr Helen the research vessel Revelle, Phillips led the third mission. which travelled from the mid The observations taken latitudes of the Indian Ocean during this voyage will have down to the Antarctica a direct impact on modelling circle. He was in charge of the Southern Ocean,

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which has a large influence on Australian and global climate. Towards the end of the year, Phd student Sonya Fiddes, Dr Claire Vincent and Dr Robyn Schofield took part on another research vessel Investigator cruise, this time around the Great Barrier Reef. This was again a voyage focused on observations directly related to ARCCSS research. A tethered kite was flown from the back of the ship to measure lower atmospheric winds and to get vertical profiles of the atmosphere using land-based measuring equipment as well. The now-defunct ABC science program, Catalyst, reported on the voyage. The measurements gathered will now be used to inform important research that looks at rainfall across the Australian Maritime Continent. These voyages not only have a direct impact on the Centre’s research but also give students and postdoctoral researchers a grounding in observations, which often underpins much of their future research.

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CENTRE STRUCTURE, GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT Governance and Management Centre Board The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is overseen by an advisory board, which is chaired by Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty, AC. The Board provides strategic oversight and advice to the Centre as well as monitoring the Centre’s performance against its stated Key Performance Targets. The board met twice in 2016, once on 2 March and again on 16 November, both held in Melbourne. The membership of the Board remained unchanged throughout 2016.

Board Members Professor Peter Doherty AC FAA FRS (Chair), University of Melbourne and St Jude Children’s Research Hospital Dr Peter May, Deputy Director, CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology Mr Ian Dunlop, former Chair, Australian Coal Association, and former CEO Australian Institute of Company Directors Professor Laura Poole-Warren, PVC Research Training, UNSW Dr Helen Cleugh, Director, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, National Environmental Science Program Dr Andreas Schiller, Science and Deputy Director Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Ocean and Climate Dynamics Program, CSIRO Professor Jean Palutikof, Director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University Mr Dave Johnson, Assistant Secretary, ERIN, Science and Monitoring Branch, Department of the Environment Dr Jon Petch, Head, Science Partnerships, UK Met Office.

The Centre Advisory Group The Centre Advisory Group (CAG) meets monthly to discuss strategic and tactical advice at the level of individual programs and projects. The CAG’s monthly meetings will ensure the Centre meets the agreed performance indicators, coordinated across the Partner (as well as host) Organisations.

Centre Executive The Centre Director, Professor Andy Pitman, carries overall responsibility for day-to-day leadership of the Centre and its research. He is supported by the Centre Executive Group (CEG). The CEG is comprised of the Director, Deputy Director, Centre Manager, Graduate Director, Computational Modelling Systems Team Leader, the Media and Communications Manager, and the five research program leaders. The CEG meets regularly via video conference to discuss Centre management, operations and policy. An extended Centre Executive, which includes the leaders of each research program, meets by video conference on a monthly basis to discuss both operational and scientific matters. Every second month, the group is joined by all Chief Investigators.

Centre Business Team The transformative research that the Centre of Excellence continues to deliver is supported by an enthusiastic team of professional staff. Centre Manager Stephen Gray (UNSW), Finance and Resources Officer Vilia Co (UNSW), Media and Communications Manager Alvin Stone (UNSW) and Executive Assistants Elaine Fernandes (Monash) and Swa Rath (UNSW) each play an important role in supporting the Centre’s core functions of research, graduate training, outreach and communications. The team is committed to best practice in the tertiary education and research management sphere. Stephen Gray’s commitment to the Centre and its growth, his foresight, and consistent striving to go “above and beyond what his role required” were acknowledged Centre-wide as he was awarded the Director’s Prize at the 2016 ARCCSS Annual Workshop in Lorne. In 2016 Stephen Gray was invited to address a high-level summit in Kota Kinabalu of the six nations involved in the Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI). CTI is exploring the possibility of establishing a regional Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Adaptation and invited Stephen, as a recognised leader in strategic management of cross-institutional research collaborations, to present.

Advisory Group Members Professor Andy Pitman, Director Professor Christian Jakob, Deputy Director Dr Claire Carouge, Computational Modelling Support Team Leader Professor Lindsay Botten, Director of NCI Dr Tony Hirst, Deputy Research Program Leader, CAWCR ESM, CSIRO Peter May, Deputy Director, CAWCR-BoM *Leaders of each of the Centre’s research programs are also involved in the Centre Advisory Group as required.

>16 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Stephen Gray addressing members of the Coral Triangle Initiative working group on climate change adaptation centres of excellence, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia.

Leadership

Gender Statistics of current staff and students

We remain committed to providing leadership training, guidance and opportunities for all Centre researchers, including our students and early career researchers. Our students and early career researchers are represented via our Early Career Researchers (ECR) committee, with an early career researcher representative attending Centre Executive Group meetings. Our ECR committee also organises early career researcher professional development and training events, including dedicated early career researcher events at national Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) annual meetings, and helps facilitate dedicated early career researcher funding applications that enable our early career researchers to lead small projects that expand beyond the scope of their research programs. An overview of ECRC activities for 2016 can be found within the report. Many of our early career researchers also played key roles in coordinating workshops focused on our research programs this year. In addition to offering leadership opportunities within the Centre, we also identify existing courses in people and project management at our nodes and encourage our researchers to take up these opportunities. Examples in 2016 include ANU researcher Dr Sophie Lewis completing the Emerging Leaders and Managers Program through the LH Martin Institute at the University of Melbourne, as well as completing ANUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s training for new supervisors. Dr Joan Llort (UTAS) and Dr Andrea Dittus (Monash University) attended their respective institutionsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; training programs for early career researcher career options and development. Dr Nerilie Abram (ANU) attended a valuable session on unconscious bias. The Centre is committed to raising awareness of a diverse range of equity issues and in 2017 will be exploring the provision of unconscious bias training to Centre staff and students; in particular, to senior staff.

Gender and Diversity

Role

% Female % Male

Chief Investigators

Partner Investigators

Associate Investigators

Research Associates

PhD Students

Master Students

Honours Students

CMS

Professional Staff

ARCSS Gender Profile Nov 2016 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

% Male

% Fema

% Male % Female

The gender balance among ARCCSS students is close to parity (currently 45% female); however, representation of women follows the common pattern experienced in the physical sciences and Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects, and drops off at the more senior levels. In 2016, the Centre continued its close engagement with AMOS gender and equity initiatives in order to enhance career-building opportunities for female scientists in our field. The AMOS committee is chaired by Graduate Director Dr Melissa Hart.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 17 <

The Early Career Researchers Committee This year the Early Career Researchers (ECR) committee (ECRC) continued its commitment to both supporting the early career researcher experience within the Centre of Excellence and being the communication channel between the Centre executives and early career researchers. This was achieved by holding early career researcher meetings at each node throughout the year (in the form of lunches and afternoon teas) where ECRC representatives met with early career researchers to discuss issues affecting their experience. The ECR day at AMOS-2016, held in February, was organised by two volunteers from Monash University, Sugata Narsey and Stephanie Jacobs. The day involved talks and exercises revolving around getting jobs in academia and industry, and was extremely successful. A keynote address was given by Michael Nolan who chairs the UN Cities Program and who drew on extensive experience in environmental consulting to talk about current opportunities for early career researchers. The ECR committee this year approved funding for two ECR projects, to Dr Sophie Lewis (ANU) and Dr Claire Vincent (University of Melbourne). Dr Lewis’s funding helped her attend training on leadership and management in the higher education sector in Australia, and as a result of her successful funding she has begun a series of three seminars to be given to all CoE nodes, relaying the leadership lessons that she has learned. Dr Vincent’s funding allowed her to coordinate the measurement of the tropical sea breeze that occurs off the coast of northern Queensland, from the research vessel Investigator. The observations she collected will directly help her and others within the Centre validate their work on this issue.

The ECR committee also helped nominate one postdoctoral researcher (Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick) and one PhD student (Pearse Buchanan) to attend the Science Pathways 2016 – Future Leaders Workshop at the University of New South Wales. As part of his interstate attendance at this workshop, Pearse gave a seminar at UNSW on the goals and results so far of his PhD project. The second ECR day this year was coordinated by the ECR committee and took place at the University of Melbourne following the CoE workshop in November. The theme for the day centred around communicating science, whether it be to a potential employer, the media, or through figures. The morning session involved a keynote presentation by James Whitmore, editor at The Conversation, who described the mission of The Conversation and the tips and tricks ECR’s could use to get their articles published. Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick gave an outsiders’ perspective on writing for The Conversation and attendees then developed their own article “pitches” that could be submitted to The Conversation. The afternoon session involved short talks by Beth Ebert, Ed Hawkins, Phil Klotzbach and Alvin Stone on science communication, followed by a Q&A panel with the presenters. Feedback for the event was very positive. Lastly, the ECR committee has undertaken to organise an early career researchers event in Canberra during AMOS 2017. Dr Nicholas Herold and Dr Andrew King on behalf of the ECR committee.

>18 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

As a result of his investigation Dr King was able to announce that ocean warming caused by climate change had made the event 175 times more likely than in a world without human-caused climate change.

Andrew Kingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s success attributed to hard work

arly career researcher Dr Andrew King has had one of the busiest years of any member of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in 2016. As a Centre PhD graduate and now lead member of the Extremes research program team, he has continued to develop a strong research and media profile here and overseas In March Dr King published a paper with Mitchell Black in Geophysical Research

Letters that traced the first extremes that could be attributed to global warming back to 1937. One of the most interesting aspects of this study was that it used a method that would allow future researchers to determine the contribution of climate change to extreme events, even if these events were not record breaking. This paper continues the Centreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strong and internationally recognized work in human-caused

climate change attribution studies. But in April, Dr King took it a step further when he responded to the substantial bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef by using peerreviewed attribution methods to look at the role of climate change in the bleaching event. This was the first time such an approach had been used for a coral bleaching event. Importantly he was able to investigate the role of climate change even as the event continued to unfold. As a result of his investigation Dr King was able to announce that ocean warming caused by climate change had made the event 175 times more likely than in a world without humancaused climate change. This became an important foundation for public discussion around the future viability of the reef as a tourist destination and the kind of response required to combat climate change. Dr Kingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s media work was particularly impressive

this year, with his public commentary extending to all aspects of the climate system. He has moved beyond commenting on his own papers and now regularly engages in general discussions about the climate system in public forums. This year alone he authored or co-authored six articles for The Conversation about various areas of the climate. These articles and his responses to the Australian Science Media Centre and media comment made him a regular expert voice in major media outlets. In 2016 he was quoted in The Washington Post twice, IFLS (with 25 million followers), the South China Morning Post, The Guardian (UK) and most major Australian media outlets. Dr King continues to be a strong example of how our graduate students are making a significant impact on peer reviewed science and the public discussion of that science.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 19 <

Organisational Chart Board

Centre Advisory Group

Prof Peter Doherty, Dr Peter May, Dr Helen Cleugh, Dave Johnson, Ian Dunlop, Prof Jean Palutikof, Prof Laura Poole-Warren, Dr Jon Petch, Dr Andreas Schiller

Lindsay Botten, Rachel Law, Tony Hirst, Peter May, Andy Pitman, Christian Jakob, Claire Carouge

Centre Director Prof Andy Pitman

Centre Executive

Deputy Director Prof Christian Jakob

Team Leader Computational Modelling Systems

Centre Manager

Media and Communications Manager

Dr Claire Carouge

Stephen Gray

Alvin Stone

Graduate Director Dr Melissa Hart

Twelve Chief Investigators Across Five Research Programs Dr Lisa Alexander, Prof Nathan Bindoff, Dr Dietmar Dommenget, Prof Matthew England, A/Prof Andy Hogg, Prof David Karoly, A/Prof Todd Lane, Prof Michael Reeder, A/Prof Michael Roderick, Prof Steven Sherwood, Prof Will Steffen, A/Prof Peter Strutton

Computational Modelling Support Team Heerdegen, Petrelli, Wales, Wolff

Administration Team Co, Fernandes, Rath

Research Associates

>20 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Partner and Associate Investigators

Research Students (PhD, Masters, Honours)

Director

Dr Harry Hendon CAWCR - (BoM)

Prof David Griggs Monash University

Prof Andy Pitman University of New South Wales

Dr Anthony Hirst CAWCR - (CSIRO)

Dr Benjamin Henley U.Melb

Deputy Director

Dr Richard Matear CAWCR - (CSIRO)

Dr Will Hobbs UTAS

Prof Christian Jakob Monash University

Dr Christa Peters-Lidard NASA-Goddard Space flight Centre (USA)

Prof Neil Holbrook UTAS

Graduate Director

Dr Scott Power CAWCR - (BoM)

Dr Melissa Hart University of New South Wales

Dr Alain Protat CAWCR - (BoM)

Centre Manager

Dr Peter Stott Met Office/Hadley Centre (UK)

Stephen Gray University of New South Wales

Chief Investigators A/Prof Lisa Alexander University of New South Wales Prof Nathan Bindoff University of Tasmania Dr Dietmar Dommenget Monash University Prof Matthew England University of New South Wales A/Prof Andy Hogg Australian National University Prof David Karoly University of Melbourne A/Prof Todd Lane University of Melbourne Prof Michael Reeder Monash University Prof Michael Roderick Australian National University Prof Steven Sherwood University of New South Wales Prof Will Steffen Australian National University A/Prof Peter Strutton University of Tasmania

Partner Investigators Dr Julie Arblaster CAWCR - (BoM) Dr Sandrine Bony LMD/CNRS (France) Dr Wojciech Grabowski NCAR (USA) Dr Stephen Griffies GFDL Prof Hoshin Gupta University of Arizona (USA)

Prof Rowan Sutton NCAS (UK) Dr Ying Ping Wang CAWCR - (CSIRO) Dr Ian Watterson CAWCR - (CSIRO)

Associate Investigators Dr Nerilie Abram ANU Dr Gab Abramowitz UNSW Dr Jessica Benthuysen CSIRO/UTAS Dr Ghyslaine Boschat U.Melb Dr Jennifer Catto Monash University Dr Catia Motta Domingues UTAS Dr Randall Donohue CAWCR - (CSIRO) Dr Stephanie Downes UTAS A/Prof Jason Evans UNSW Dr Jean-Francois Exbrayat University of Edinburgh Prof Graham Farquhar ANU A/Prof Michael Gagan ANU Dr Ailie Gallant Monash University Dr JoÃ«lle Gergis U.Melb Dr Donna Green UNSW Prof Ross Griffiths ANU

Dr Yi Huang Monash University Dr Nicolas Jourdain LGGE (France) Dr Jatin Kala Murdoch University Dr Shane Keating UNSW Dr Sarah Perkins UNSW Dr Andrew Kiss UNSW Dr Sophie Lewis ANU Dr Yi Liu UNSW Dr Ian Macadam UK Met Office Dr Angela Maharaj UNSW Dr Simon Marsland CAWCR - (CSIRO) Prof Trevor McDougall UNSW Dr Shayne McGregor Monash University Dr Timothy McVicar CAWCR - (CSIRO) A/Prof Katrin Meissner UNSW Dr Laurie Menviel UNSW Dr Mitch Moncrieff NCAR (USA) Prof Ben Newell UNSW Prof Neville Nicholls Monash University Dr Maxim Nikurashin UTAS Dr Helen Phillips UTAS Dr Hamish Ramsay Monash University Prof Peter Rayner U.Melb

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 21 <

Dr Oleg Saenko Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Dr Agus Santoso UNSW Dr Robyn Schofield U.Melb Dr Alexander Sen Gupta UNSW A/Prof Steven Siems Monash University A/Prof Scott Sisson UNSW Dr Kial Stewart ANU Dr Andrea Taschetto UNSW Prof Thomas Trull UTAS Dr Petteri Uotila CAWCR - (CSIRO) Dr Erik van Sebille Imperial College A/Prof Kevin Walsh U.Melb Dr Rob Warren Monash University Dr Stephanie Waterman UNSW/University of British Columbia Dr Matt Wheeler CAWCR - (BoM) Dr Susan Wijffels CAWCR - (CSIRO) Guy Williams UTAS Jan Zika UNSW

Research Associates Dr Duncan Ackerley Monash University Dr Daniel Argueso UNSW Dr Mark Decker UNSW Dr Andrea Dittus U.Melb Dr Leela Frankcombe UNSW Dr Nicholas Herold UNSW

Dr Jules Kajtar UNSW Dr Andrew King U.Melb Dr Veronique Lago UTAS Dr Joan Llort UTAS Dr Shaoxiu Ma UNSW Dr Benjamin Moebis Monash University

Professional Staff Vilia Co UNSW Elaine Fernandes Monash University Swagatika Rath UNSW Alvin Stone UNSW

Dipayan Choudhury UNSW Scott Clark Monash University Maxime Colin UNSW Steefan Contractor UNSW Nathan Cooper UNSW Andrea Cranenburgh UTAS

Dr Laura Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Brien Monash University

PhD Students

Ajitha Cyriac UTAS

Dr Eric Oliver UTAS

* Indicates 2016 thesis submission

Anil Deo U.Melb

Dr Julian Quinting Monash University

Esteban Abellan UNSW

Raktima Dey ANU

Dr Abhik Santra Monash University

Oliver Angelil UNSW

Fabio Boeira Dias UTAS

Dr Callum Shakespeare ANU

Rachel Badlan* U.Melb

Earl Duran UNSW

Dr Anna Ukkola UNSW

Witold Bagniewski* UNSW

Bethany Ellis ANU

Dr Claire Vincent U.Melb

Natasha Ballis U.Melb

Sonya Fiddes U.Melb

Dr Evan Weller Monash University

Jiawei Bao UNSW

Mandy Freund U.Melb

Yue Zheng UNSW

Pilar Andrea Barria U.Melb

Angus Gibson ANU

Computational Modelling Systems and Technical Programmers

Alice Barthel UNSW

Peter Gibson UNSW

Martin Bergemann* Monash University

James Goldie UNSW

Vidhi Bharti Monash University

Mia Gross UNSW

Mitchell Black* U.Melb

Ned Haughton UNSW

Bella Blanche UTAS

Nadja Herger UNSW

Pearse Buchanan UTAS

Lam Hoang* Monash University

Christopher Bull UNSW

Sanaa Hobeichi UNSW

Arden Burrell UNSW

Chiara Holgate ANU/UNSW

Wasin Chaivaranont UNSW

Willem Huiskamp* UNSW

Yingjun Chen U.Melb

Wilma Huneke UTAS

Xi Chen UNSW

Stephanie Jacobs Monash University

Sushma Chen Reddy U.Melb

Carlo Jamandre UNSW

Dr Claire Carouge UNSW Nicholas Hannah UNSW Dr Aidan Heerdegen ANU Dr Paola Petrelli UTAS Scott Wales U.Melb Dr Holger Wolff Monash University

>22 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Robert Johnson* UTAS

Sandra Richard U.Melb

Moirah Matou* Monash University

Malcolm King* U.Melb

Eytan Rocheta UNSW

Ewan Short U.Melb

David Kinniburgh Monash University

Cassandra Rogers Monash University

Taimoor Sohail ANU

Yue Li UNSW

Robert Ryan U.Melb

Veronica (Yuehua) Li UNSW

Fimi Sarmadi Monash University

Honours Students

Mathew Lipson UNSW

Serena Schroeter UTAS

* Indicates 2016 thesis submission

Yiling Liu UNSW

Kate Snow* ANU

Andrew Brown* U.Melb

Tammas Loughran UNSW

Christian Stassen Monah University

Taha Cowen* UTAS

Nicola Maher* UNSW

Nicholas Tyrrell* Monash University

Hannah Dawson* UTAS

Craig McConnochie* ANU

Peter van Rensch Monash University

Laurence Garcia-Villada UNSW

Mainak Mondal ANU

Asha Vijayeta Monash University

Joss Kirk* ANU

Sugata Narsey Monash University

Elisabeth Vogel U.Melb

Cameron Lewis* Monash University

Kaitlin Naughton UNSW

Catherine Vreugdenhil ANU

Nicholas Pittman* UTAS

Sonja Nieske Monash University

Gang Wang* Monash University

Max Rintoul* ANU

Nidhi Nishant UNSW

David Webb UNSW

Rohan Smyth* Monash University

Alexander Norton U.Melb

Jennifer Wurtzel ANU

Siru Zheng* ANU

Justin Oogjes U.Melb

Luwei Yang UTAS

Stacey Osbrough Monash University

Mathia Zeller Monash University

Marissa Parry UNSW

Haifeng Zhang UNSW Canberra

Daniel Pazmino Vernaza* U.Melb

Masters Students

Acacia Pepler UNSW Sarah Perry UNSW Byju Pookkandy* Monash University Valeria Prando UNSW Ariaan Purich UNSW Xuerong Qin* UNSW Saurabh Rathore UTAS

* Indicates 2016 thesis submission Ross Bunn Monash University Adrian Dâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Alessandro U.Melb Peter Degorski* U.Melb Paul Hartlipp UNSW@ADFA Tan Mai U.Melb

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 23 <

Chief Investigators Prof Andy Pitman Director of ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Research program: The Role of Land Surface Forcing and Feedbacks for Regional Climate Professor Andy Pitman was born in Bristol and was awarded a bachelor’s degree with honours in physical geography and a PhD in Atmospheric Science by the University of Liverpool, UK. He also holds a Postgraduate Certificate in Educational Leadership from Macquarie University. Prof Pitman was Head of the Department of Physical Geography at Macquarie University from 1999 to 2003 and Deputy Dean of Division from 2000 to 2003. He initiated the Climate Risk Centre of Research Excellence there before moving to the University of New South Wales in 2007 to co-direct the newly established Climate Change Research Centre. Prof Pitman’s research focus is on terrestrial processes in global and regional climate modelling, model evaluation and earth systems approaches to understanding climate change. His leadership, collaboration and research experience is extensive both nationally and internationally. Between 2004 and 2010 he convened the Australian Research Council Research Network for Earth System Science, which facilitated interaction between individuals and groups involved in climate system science. He is a member of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator initiative, the Academy of Science’s National Committee for Earth System Science, the NSW Minister for Climate Change’s Science Advisory Committee and the Department of Climate Change Advisory Committee. In 2007 he was appointed to the Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council on Regional Climate Change. Internationally, Prof Pitman is closely affiliated with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). He was chair of the WCRP’s Land Committee for the Global Land Atmosphere System Study from 2006 to 2008, and is now on its Science Steering Committee. As Co-chair, he jointly led one of the first major international intercomparison exercises: the Project for the Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes, which is supported by WCRP (and formerly by the now-defunct International Geosphere Biosphere Programme). He also sat on the Science Steering Committee of the Integrated Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Processes Study and is currently cocoordinator for the project Land Use Change: Identification of Robust Impacts. Prof Pitman is a regular invitee for keynote presentations and is a passionate communicator about science, contributing regularly to the media on the science of climate change. He was a Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports, contributing to the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC in 2007. He has also contributed to the Copenhagen Diagnosis, an Australia-led update of the science of climate change. He has held editorial positions

with the Journal of Climate and the Annals of the Association of American Geographers’ Journal of Geophysical ResearchAtmospheres and is currently an editor for the International Journal of Climatology. Awards and accolades received by Prof Pitman include: NSW Scientist of the Year Award (2010), the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographical Medal (2009), the Dean’s Award for Science Leadership at Macquarie University (2005), the Priestly Medal for Excellence in Atmospheric Science Research (2004) and the Geoff Conolly Memorial Award (2004). He jointly won the International Justice Prize for the Copenhagen Diagnosis (2010) and was among Sydney Magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people (2010). Prof Pitman has a long track record of nurturing early career researchers and has supervised 10 PhD students through to successful completion, plus five masters and a significant number of honours students. He has published more than 150 papers in peer-reviewed journals and has authored 20 book chapters.

Prof Christian Jakob Deputy Director of ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Research program: The Effects of Tropical Convection on Australia’s Climate Professor Christian Jakob was awarded his PhD in Meteorology from the Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, in 2001. As a research and senior research scientist for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts from 1993 to 2001, he worked on the development and evaluation of the model representation of clouds, convection and precipitation. From 2002 to 2007 he was Senior and Principal Research Scientist of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and since 2007 he has been a professor at Monash University. He currently is the Chair of Climate Modelling at Monash’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment. Prof Jakob’s experience and current interests are in the development and evaluation of the processes crucial to the energy and water cycles in global atmospheric models. Internationally, he is engaged in many scientific and collaborative activities. He is the current Co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Modelling Advisory Council. He led the prestigious Working Group on Numerical Experimentation from 2008 to 2012 and was the first university-based researcher to be appointed in that position. He was Chair of the WCRP’s Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Modelling and Prediction Panel from 2007 to 2010. Before that, Prof Jakob successfully led the GEWEX Cloud System Study, in which a group of about 150 scientists collaborated on the development and evaluation of cloud and convection representation in models.

>24 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

He co-led the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment in 2006. In recognition of his prominent position in the climate science field, Prof Jakob was a Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. In 2016, his research was recognised by the Ascent Award of the American Geophysical Union’s Atmospheric Sciences Section.

A/Prof Lisa Alexander Research program: Mechanisms Explaining Changes in Australian Climate Extremes Associate Professor Lisa Alexander holds a Bachelor of Science, a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics and a PhD from Monash University. Between 1998 and 2006 she worked as a research scientist at the UK Meteorological Office/ Hadley Centre, with a year on secondment at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A/Prof Alexander’s primary research focuses on understanding the variability and driving mechanisms of climate extremes. Of particular significance is her ongoing work assessing global changes in temperature and rainfall extremes, which has contributed significantly to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. She was awarded the 2011 Priestley Medal by the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the 2013 Australian Academy of Science Dorothy Hill Award for her contribution to this field of research. She contributed to the IPCC assessments in 2001 and 2007 and to the 2012 Special Report on Extremes and was a Lead Author of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report. A/Prof Alexander also chairs the World Meteorological Organisation Commission for Climatology Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-specific Indices and is Co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme’s Grand Challenge on Extremes.

Prof Nathaniel Bindoff Research program: Mechanisms and Attribution of Past and Future Ocean Circulation Change Professor Bindoff is a physical oceanographer, specialising in ocean climate and the earth’s climate system, with a focus on understanding the causes of change in the oceans. He was the Coordinating Lead Author for the oceans chapter in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th and 5th Assessment Reports (AR4 & AR5). Prof Bindoff and colleagues documented some of the first evidence for changes in the Indian, North Pacific, South Pacific and Southern oceans and the first evidence of changes in the Earth’s hydrological cycle from ocean salinity. His most recent work is on documenting the decline in oxygen content of the oceans. Prof Bindoff has also worked in the Antarctic, to determine the total production

of Adelie Land Bottom Water formation and its contribution to Antarctic Bottom Water Formation and its circulation. His group has contributed to the development of some of the largest and highest-resolution model simulations of the oceans for the scientific study of mixing in the oceans. He contributed to the IPCC’s winning of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, shared with Al Gore, and is now a Coordinating Lead Author of the Detection and Attribution chapter in the IPCC’s AR5. His current interests are primarily in understanding how the changing ocean can be used to infer changes in atmosphere and whether these changes can be attributed to rising greenhouse gases and for projecting future changes and its impacts on regional climates. He led the Climate Futures project for the study of impacts of climate change on Tasmania. Prof Bindoff has served on 13 international committees, been the invited speaker at 18 conferences and workshops and co-chaired two workshops. He was guest editor on two special volumes of Deep Sea Research, and convened the Oceans session of the Climate Change Congress, Copenhagen, March 2009. Prof Bindoff has published more than 88 scientific papers and 42 reports.

Dr Dietmar Dommenget Research program: Drivers of Spatial and Temporal Climate Variability in Extra-tropical Australia Dr Dietmar Dommenget completed his Diploma in Physics at the University of Hamburg. He started studying climate dynamics and climate model development at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in 1996 and finished his PhD in 2000. He joined the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project in a postdoctoral position at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, to study the predictability of El Niño in a joint observational data assimilation scheme. After three years in California he returned to Germany in 2003 for a fixed-term faculty position as a junior professor in the Meteorology department at the IFM-GEOMAR (also known as the Liebniz Institute of Marine Sciences) in Kiel. Since 2010 Dr Dommenget has been a senior lecturer at Monash University in the weather and climate group of the School of Mathematical Sciences. Dr Dommenget’s research focuses on large-scale climate dynamics. He works with climate models at all levels of complexity. Most of his work centres on the development, conducting and analysis of coupled general-circulation models, but he has also developed simple conceptual models of natural climate variability. Most of his work focuses on sea surface temperature variability in the tropical and extra-tropical oceans. He is most widely known for his work on the interpretation of statistical patterns in climate variability. His most recent projects focus on climate change. He developed a new type of climate model for the conceptual understanding of the climate response to external forcing, which is a fast and simple tool for researchers, students and the public to understand the interactions in the climate system.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 25 <

Prof Matthew England Research program: Mechanisms and Attribution of Past and Future Ocean Circulation Change Professor Matthew England obtained his PhD in 1992 from the University of Sydney. He is a former Fulbright Scholar and was a postdoctoral research fellow at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France, from 1992-1994. He was a research scientist in CSIRO’s Climate Change Research Program from 1994-1995 and was a CSIRO Flagship Fellow in 2005. He has been with the University of New South Wales since 1995, where he held an Australian Research Council (ARC) Federation Fellowship from 20062010. He commenced an ARC Laureate Fellowship in 2011 and is presently Deputy Director of the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre. In 2014 Prof England was elected a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science and in 2016 a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union. Prof England’s research explores global-scale ocean circulation and the influence it has on regional climate, large-scale physical oceanography, ocean modelling, and climate processes, with a particular focus on the Southern Hemisphere. Using ocean and coupled climate models in combination with observations, he studies how ocean currents affect climate and climate variability on time scales of seasons to centuries. His work has made significant impact on the treatment of water-mass physics in models, on the methodologies of assessment of ocean and climate models, on our understanding of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate modes, and on the mechanisms for regional climate variability over Australia. Prof England has served on two Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council Expert Working Groups (Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science, and Energy-CarbonWater); the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) International Working Group for Ocean Model Development; and the ARC Earth System Science Network board. He was Co-chair of the CLIVAR Southern Ocean Region Implementation Panel 2008-2014 and is currently a member of the World Climate Research Programme/CLIVAR/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Drought Interest Group. Prof England was awarded the Land & Water Australia Eureka Prize for Water Research and the Banksia Foundation Mercedes-Benz Australian Research Award in 2008. In 2007 he received the Royal Society of Victoria Research Medal. Other awards include the Sherman Eureka Prize for Environmental Research (2006); the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Priestley Medal (2005); the Australian Academy of Science Frederick White Prize (2004); a Fulbright Scholarship (1991-1992); and the University Medal, University of Sydney (1987). Prof England has authored over 180 peer-reviewed journal papers. He has been a Contributing Author for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. He was the convening lead author of the 2009 Copenhagen Diagnosis. He has graduated over 20 PhDs and taught more than 3000 undergraduate students. He was an associate editor for Reviews of Geophysics 2005-2009 and an associate editor for the Journal of Climate 2008-2015.

A/Prof Andy Hogg Research program: Mechanisms and Attribution of Past and Future Ocean Circulation Change Associate Professor Andy Hogg completed his undergraduate degree in physics at the Australian National University in 1996 and was awarded his PhD in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics from the University of Western Australia in 2002. He then spent three years as a postdoctoral fellow at the Southampton Oceanography Centre, where he developed a new, high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In 2004 he returned to ANU to take up a position as Australian Research Council (ARC) Postdoctoral Fellow. He is currently based at ANU’s Research School of Earth Sciences, and holds an ARC Future Fellowship. A/Prof Hogg’s research interests centre on physical processes governing the ocean and climate. His work within the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science will be focused on the role of the ocean in altering the variance of modes of climate variability and the ocean’s response to changes in the major climate modes. He will investigate the physical changes in Southern Ocean water mass formation and the role of eddies and mixing in the climate system. Due to A/Prof Hogg’s unique contributions to understanding of the Southern Ocean, he was awarded the Frederick White Prize from the Australian Academy of Science in 2012, the Nicholas P. Fofonoff Award from the American Meteorological Society and the AMOS Priestly Award in 2015. A/Prof Hogg’s publication record includes 68 scientific research papers and exhibits a flair for new and innovative research.

Prof David Karoly Research program: Mechanisms Explaining Changes in Australian Climate Extremes Professor David Karoly completed his Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Applied Mathematics in 1976 from Monash University and was awarded his PhD in Meteorology from the University of Reading in England in 1980. From 1995 to 2000 he was the Director of the Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology at Monash University and during 2001-2002 he was Professor of Meteorology and Head of the School of Mathematical Sciences at Monash University. From 2003-2007 he was the Williams Chair Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. He returned to Australia in 2007 as an ARC Federation Fellow and Professor of Meteorology at the University of Melbourne – a position he held until May 2012. His current position is Professor of Atmospheric Science at Melbourne University’s School of Earth Sciences. Prof Karoly’s research focuses on climate variability and climate change, including greenhouse climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion and interannual climate variations due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. He is recognised as one of the leading global experts on

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the dynamics of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere and its variability. He is also recognised as a world leader in the detection and attribution of climate change, particularly at regional scales. Recently, he has been studying the impacts of climate change on weather extremes and their impacts on human and natural systems. Prof Karoly is a member of the Climate Change Authority, established in 2012 as an independent body that provides expert advice on the operation of Australia’s carbon price, emissions reduction targets and other Australian Government climate change mitigation initiatives. In 2013, he became a member of the Scientific Steering Committee for the World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2014. During 2011-2012, he was a member of the Joint Scientific Committee that provides scientific oversight to the World Climate Research Programme. From 2008-2009 he was Chair of the Premier of Victoria’s Climate Change Reference Group. He is also a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. Prof Karoly was involved, through several different roles, in the preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report and was a Review Editor for a chapter in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Recent awards received include the 2014 Morton Medal of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society for “leadership in meteorology, oceanography, climate and related fields, particularly through education and the development of young scientists” and the 2015 Royal Society of Victoria Medal for Scientific Excellence for “excellence and leadership in scientific research in the Earth sciences”.

A/Prof Todd Lane Research program: The Effects of Tropical Convection on Australia’s Climate Associate Professor Todd Lane was awarded his PhD in Applied Mathematics from Monash University in 2000, having completed his bachelor’s degree in 1997. He was a postdoctoral fellow with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) from 2000-2002 and a staff scientist from 2003-2005. He joined the University of Melbourne in 2005, where he is now Associate Professor and Reader in the School of Earth Sciences. Between 2010-2014 he was an ARC Future Fellow.

Mesoscale Processes from 2012-2015. He has received awards from the American Meteorological Society, the Australian Academy of Science, the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, and NASA.

Prof Michael Reeder Research program: Drivers of Spatial and Temporal Climate Variability in Extra-tropical Australia Professor Michael Reeder completed a PhD in Applied Mathematics at Monash University before holding postdoctoral positions at the University of Munich (Germany) and the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (USA). He subsequently returned to Monash University as a member of staff, rising through the ranks to professor. Prof Reeder has also held long-term visiting positions at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), the State University of New York at Albany (USA), the University of Reading (UK) and the University of Leeds (UK). Prof. Reeder’s research is focused principally on weather-producing systems. However, he has published on a wide variety of topics, including fronts, tropopause folding, extra-tropical cyclones, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rossby waves, tropical cyclones, gravity waves, solitary waves, convection, boundary layers and bushfires. He has been the principal supervisor for more than 34 graduate students. Prof Reeder is a past President of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, and a winner of the Distinguished Research Award from the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the Loewe Prize from the Royal Meteorological Society, Australian Branch.

Prof Michael Roderick Research program: The Role of Land Surface Forcing and Feedbacks for Regional Climate

A/Prof Lane’s primary research focus is on cloud processes. He is internationally recognised as an expert on the generation of atmospheric waves and turbulence by thunderstorms and has made important contributions to many other aspects of mesoscale meteorology, convective cloud dynamics, and high-resolution atmospheric modelling. His work within the Centre is focused on convection in the Maritime Continent, and he is using state-of-the-art cloud models to determine the processes that govern the diurnal cycle and variability of clouds and precipitation in this region.

Professor Michael Roderick graduated with a Bachelor of Applied Science in Surveying from the Queensland University of Technology in 1984 and subsequently worked as a surveyor across northern Australia until 1990. He completed a Postgraduate Diploma in Geographic Information Systems at the University of Queensland in 1990. After working with the Department of Agriculture in Perth (1991-1993) he joined Curtin University. He was a lecturer at the School of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University of Technology, from 1993-1996 and completed a PhD in satellite remote sensing and environmental modelling at Curtin University in 1994. He joined the Australian National University as a research fellow in 1996 and currently holds a joint appointment as a professor between the Research School of Earth Sciences and the Research School of Biology.

He was the 2014-2015 President of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, and was Chair of the American Meteorological Society’s Committee on

Prof Roderick’s principal research interests are in environmental physics, climate science, ecohydrology (including plant-water relations), remote sensing and

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ecological dynamics. He has made major international contributions to understanding the water-energy-carbon linkage.    An advocate of national and international scientific collaboration, Prof Roderick co-instigated and co-organised the first international scientific meeting to address the observed decline in evaporative demand and the implications for the terrestrial water balance, hosted in 2004 by the Australian Academy of Science. He has also acted as an advisor to the US National Science Foundation’s program on ecohydrology. He led the Theoretical Developments in Carbon Cycle Science program of the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Accounting from 2001-2006.    In 1999, Prof Roderick received the J.B.S. Haldane Prize of the British Ecological Society for research linking waterenergy-carbon nutrients at a leaf scale and in 2004 he received a Top 100 award for his research on evaporation. He was awarded the Australasian Science Prize in 2009 for his research on evaporation and changing water availability. In 2013 he was awarded the John Dalton Medal by the European Geosciences Union for his groundbreaking research on trends in the water cycle. In 2015 he was elected a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union for his contributions to the science of evaporation and transpiration, including interpretation of changes in evapotranspiration under global environmental change. Prof Roderick is also an active supervisor and mentor to emerging scientists. He is currently supervising three PhD scholars, and has seen eight of his PhD scholars graduate since 2001.

Prof Steven Sherwood

Convection on Australia’s Climate. This work will ultimately contribute towards the goal of an innovative convective parameterization for climate models through local process modelling, larger-domain models of multi-scale interactions, field observations, global satellite observations of convection, and studies involving global climate models. Prof Sherwood was a Lead Author of the chapter on Clouds and Aerosols in the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, Working Group I, and a Contributing Author to the IPCC’s previous report in 2007. He also co-authored the first US Climate Change Science Program report, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere; contributed to The Copenhagen Diagnosis update on the science in 2009 and 2011; and contributed to the National Academy of Science’s Climate Science Questions and Answers, published in 2010. He currently serves on the editorial board of Environmental Research Letters, and on the steering committee of the World Climate Research Programme’s Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. In addition to those international activities, Prof Sherwood has co-authored over 90 papers published in peerreviewed journals. Some of these papers have been covered extensively by the international media; for example, his 2005 paper in Science on atmospheric warming, which was named as one of the top 100 scientific discoveries of the year by Discover magazine, and his 2014 study on climate sensitivity, published in Nature. Awards received by Prof Sherwood include the 2002 National Science Foundation CAREER Award and the 2005 American Meteorological Association’s Clarence Leroy Meisinger Award, and he was a Eureka Prize finalist in 2014. Since 2001, Prof Sherwood has given at least 60 invited presentations at scientific meetings or colloquia worldwide. He has also given many public presentations, including a briefing in the US House of Representatives, television and radio appearances, and public lectures at many venues.

Research program: The Effects of Tropical Convection on Australia’s Climate Professor Steven Sherwood received his bachelor’s degree in physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1987. He was awarded a Master of Science in Engineering Physics from the University of California in 1991 and a PhD in Oceanography from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, in 1995. He carried out postdoctoral research at Victoria University of Wellington (NZ) from 1996-1997 and was a research scientist at the Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center from 1998-2000. In 2001 he joined the faculty of Yale University, reaching the rank of professor in 2007. At the beginning of 2009 he moved to Australia, where he is currently an ARC Laureate Fellow and Director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales. Prof Sherwood is an established leader in atmospheric science. In particular, he has made significant contributions to the understanding of moisture-related processes in the atmosphere. His areas of study include: atmospheric humidity; convective systems; interactions between clouds, air circulation and climate; remote sensing of storms; and observed warming trends. Within the ARC Centre of Excellence, Prof Sherwood formerly led and still contributes to the research program The Effects of Tropical

Prof Will Steffen Research program: The Role of Land Surface Forcing and Feedbacks for Regional Climate Professor Will Steffen completed his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering at the University of Missouri. He was awarded his master’s degree and PhD in Chemistry from the University of Florida. He went on to serve as the Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme based in Stockholm until its recent closure. In 2005 Prof Steffen became the first Director of the Australian National University Fenner School of Environment & Society and from 2008 to 2012 he was the Executive Director of the ANU Climate Change Institute. His research interests range from sustainability to Earth system science, with an emphasis on the science of climate change, including approaches to climate change adaptation in land systems. He is known for his research on the incorporation of human processes into Earth system modelling and the past and future relationship between humans and nature.

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Prof Steffen has collaborated with and consulted for scientific organisations globally. He has been a member of the Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council working group on Australia’s Science & Technology Priorities for Global Engagement; the Advisory Board of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; and the Advisory Panel of the Earth and Sun System Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Prof Steffen was also a member of the Science Advisory Committee of the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre, Korea, and is currently Honorary Professor with Copenhagen University’s Department of Geography and Geology, and a senior fellow at the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Prof Steffen has held a number of advisory roles to the Australian Government at various times between 2004 and 2013. He was expert advisor to the multi-party Climate Change Committee, member of the Climate Commission, scientific advisor to the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (and its forerunners), and Chair of the Federal Government’s Antarctic Science Advisory Committee. From October 2013 he has been a councillor with the crowdfunded Climate Council of Australia.

A/Prof Peter Strutton Research program: Mechanisms and Attribution of Past and Future Ocean Circulation Change Associate Professor Peter Strutton received his bachelor’s degree (with first class honours) in marine science from Flinders University of South Australia in 1993. He went on to complete his PhD in Marine Science in 1998. He then left Australia to take up the positions of postdoctoral scientist and research associate with the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute in California, which he held until 2002. From 2002-2004 he was Assistant Professor with the State University of New York’s Marine Sciences Research Centre and from 2004-2010 he was Assistant, then Associate Professor at Oregon State University’s College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences. In 2010 he returned to Australia on an ARC Future Fellowship and since then has been Associate Professor at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania.

GRADUATE DIRECTOR Dr Melissa Hart Graduate Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Dr Melissa Hart completed her Bachelor of Science (Honours) in 2001 and her PhD in Atmospheric Science in 2006, at Macquarie University. During her PhD studies she worked part time at the well-respected air quality consultancy Holmes Air Sciences (now Pacific Environment). She then spent two years as a postdoctoral researcher at Portland State University, Oregon, working on the National Science Foundation-funded Feedback between Urban Systems and the Environment project. This was followed by five years in a faculty position in the Department of Geography, the University of Hong Kong, China. Dr Hart’s main research focus is in the area of urban climate, in particular the impact of land use, surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities on the climate of cities, and quantification of the magnitude of the Urban Heat Island. She is also working in the area of air pollution meteorology, in particular air pollution impacts from hazards reduction burns. Dr Hart holds an honorary position in the Department of Geography, the University of Hong Kong, and is a member of the Science Advisory Panel for ClimateWatch Hong Kong and China, and of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Course Advisory Committee. Dr Hart has extensive international experience in tertiary education at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. She is currently supervising two PhD students and one postdoctoral researcher.

A/Prof Strutton’s research focuses on biological oceanography and his standing as an Antarctic/Southern Ocean scientist is recognised internationally. He has considerable expertise on how modes of variability (such as El Niño) and internal ocean waves affect nutrients in the ocean, biological productivity and carbon exchange. Within the ARC Centre of Excellence he contributes to the Oceans program. He concentrates on the drivers of observed changes in biogeochemical cycles (oxygen, carbon and nutrients). A/Prof Strutton is an experienced supervisor and mentor of early career researchers. He currently oversees two postdoctoral researchers and several PhD and honours stents. He has an extensive publication record and has coauthored two reviews of coastal Antarctic productivity. He was also an editor for the journal Geophysical Research Letters where he handled 20-25 papers per month.

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The DoE is a major investor in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), via two of the Centre’s Partner Organisations, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, through the Australian Climate Change Science Program.

Department of the Environment Investment

he federal Department of Environment and Energy and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) maintain a strong and ongoing relationship.

Simulator (ACCESS), via two of the Centre’s Partner Organisations, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, through the Australian Climate Change Science Program. Elements of the ACCESS model are developed by The DoE is a Partner two international Partner Organisation that supports Organisations, the UK the Centre of Excellence Meteorological Office financially with an and the Geophysical Fluid investment of $100,000 each Dynamics Laboratory. year. These funds are used The Centre of Excellence to appoint an early career has worked with all of researcher, Dr Ruth Lorenz, these groups such that the to focus on the science and ACCESS model is accessible modelling of extremes. Dr and version-controlled at Lorenz acts as a catalyst, the National Computational helping to attract a range Infrastructure (NCI) – a key of people to key research element of the Australian challenges linked to the e-research landscape funded department’s research needs. by Department of Industry The DoE is a major investor and the Australian Research in the Australian Community Council. Climate and Earth System

In 2014, Dr Lorenz completed the first analysis of the ACCESS modelling system’s capacity to simulate extremes. Her paper, published in Geoscientific Model Development used the ACCESS model to examine the model’s skill in capturing the extremes recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Her paper (Lorenz et al., 2014) also reflects the nature of genuinely collaborative research effort, including as it does authors from CSIRO. A commitment the Centre of Excellence made to the DoE was to build the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment -- Part I (GLACE-1) experimental protocol into ACCESS1.3 and make this available to other users. This has been completed, and a suite of simulations with ACCESS1.3 completed. Furthermore, in part because the Centre of Excellence hosted a visit from Professor Sonia Seneviratne, we conducted additional experiments using the GLACE-CMIP-5 (CoupledModel Intercomparison

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Project – Phase 5) protocol. Based on Seneviratne et al. (2013), these simulations have been provided to the international community as part of GLACE-CMIP-5. As a consequence, the results from other modelling groups linked to GLACECMIP-5 are available to our group and Dr Lorenz is currently analysing extremes and their association with coupling strength across these models both globally and over Australia. In the meantime, Dr Lorenz has completed a major paper (Lorenz et al., submitted) to assess ACCESS’s coupling strength using a wide range of coupling metrics. Dr Lorenz has also explored how land cover change and coupling strength interact to affect climate. She undertook a highly innovative range of experiments where she took a weakly coupled region of Amazonia and separately took a strongly coupled region and then perturbed one grid point in each, then three, five, nine … etc., in a suite of paired experiments. She was able to show that the impact of land cover change in ACCESS1.3

depended on coupling strength. A strongly coupled region combined with a small land cover change had a larger overall impact than a large land cover change in a weakly coupled region. Lorenz published this result in Geophysical Research Letters. More profoundly though, we think we now have the results to resolve why some climate models simulate largescale teleconnections from land cover and others do not. We appear to be able to show that the statistical screening methods used for significance do not remove the noise inherent in climate models. This is an exciting result and we have collaborated with expert statisticians on a paper to be submitted in early 2015. The work on landatmosphere coupling and land surface processes in ACCESS, led by Dr Lorenz, has led to a number of associated studies focused on similar questions over the Australian continent. Dr Mark Decker, for example, has examined seasonal land-atmosphere coupling strength over northern Australia to determine how the soil moisture state and coupling strength definition

affect the conclusions reached. He submitted this paper to Hydrology and Earth System Science and it is currently in review. Dr Decker also worked through 2014 to replace the land hydrology in Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) that we think is part of the explanation for the weaknesses in ACCESS’s simulation of some extremes. This major model development research will bring groundwater simulation capability into ACCESS. A series of studies by PhD student Annette Hirsch has examined similar questions over Australia to those examined by Dr Lorenz in global modelling systems. In a joint paper with colleagues at NASA and CSIRO, Annette Hirsch examined how land surface initialization affected the skill of a model on seasonal forecasts. She used the CABLE land model in the NASA Land Information System that the Centre supports. She also used the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) modelling system to find that good initialization enhanced the capacity of the

model to simulate seasonal extreme temperatures. This was published in Journal of Hydrometeorology.

The support by the DoE for an early career researcher has therefore provided the catalyst for a study that has a high potential to significantly Building on this work, improve the ACCESS Annette Hirsh again used models’ capacity to simulate CABLE in the WRF extremes in the current modelling system to examine climate and examine some the interaction between important science questions land-atmosphere coupling linked to coupling strength. and asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperature The department’s support simulations. In collaboration has expanded the utilization with CSIRO and ETH of ACCESS and CABLE, led Zurich colleague Professor to innovative science using Seneviratne, Annette Hirsch Australian supercomputing, showed that variations in integrated research on coupling strength were extremes data sets with determined by background land modelling, led to climate, planetary boundary an activity to replace the layer and cumulus scheme. hydrology in ACCESS, and However, irrespective of led to closer collaboration how experiments were between CSIRO and Centre configured, all results researchers. It is an excellent identified Australia as a example of where targeted “hot spot” of soil moisturefunding can lead to highatmosphere coupling for impact outcomes. Ensuring both mean and maximum the Centre of Excellence temperatures. Results did remains well aligned with not highlight strong coupling national strategies led by the for rainfall, however. Hirsch DoE enables ARC funding et al. (2014b) published to have a coordinated and this result in Geophysical sustained impact on national Research Letters. Finally, priorities. Hirsch et al. (2014c) examined how land cover change interacted with coupling strength in a world first: the first time land cover change was unified with land-atmosphere coupling.

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RESEARCH PROGRAM OVERVIEW

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The Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) was very much in “production stage” through 2016 in terms of its research programs. Our objectives are well set, students and research fellows are largely in the later years of their degrees or appointments, and the modelling and data tools the Centre depends on are established. One would therefore expect a series of research highlights that reflect the capability to deliver discoveries founded on strengths developed over four to five years. In the individual research reports, outcomes are reported that reflect new discoveries and exciting developments. Publications in elite international journals are interwoven with PhD completions, sustained international collaboration, strong national engagement and multiple awards. While the modelling and data tools we depend on are well established, improvements and new capabilities are also possible and these are also reported thanks to the efforts of the Computational Modelling Systems (CMS) team. These include major efforts around the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), including improved accessibility to the project’s Phase 5 (CMIP-5) data and collaboration with Partner Organisations CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) linked with CMIP-6. The CMS team’s contributions span the ocean sciences including optimisation of models for NCI and new versions of the open-access model through to integration of new science into the land modelling systems. As a consequence of the efforts by the CMS team, coupled with the outstanding researchers the Centre hosts, research progress has been spectacular. This is documented in the following reports from each research program but our research focused on ocean science has produced four papers in Nature family journals and five in Geophysical Research Letters, along with multiple other publications in outstanding international journals. Our Variability program has delivered a series of studies on the importance of cloud feedbacks

in driving and controlling the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and confronted the “wet-get-wetter paradigm” to show that rainfall over land does not follow this rule under climate change. The Land program has delivered four papers in Nature family journals and many other significant publications, implemented new innovative parameterizations into the Australian land surface model and, perhaps long term most importantly, strived to establish increasing engagement with plant physiology and ecological research communities in Australia. The Tropical Convection program completed a 10-year convection-permitting simulation over the entire Maritime Continent, published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters developing new metrics to capture mesoscale and intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the Maritime Continent, and a second paper that identifies how coastal convection forms in much drier environments than non-coastal convection. Finally, our Extremes program has made major progress in identifying a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events back as far as the 1930s. It has also published a Nature Climate Change study showing that global warming was increasing rain in the world’s driest areas. An effective cross-research program collaboration has highlighted how antecedent soil moisture conditions affects the characteristics of Australian heatwaves. These outcomes, published in the top international journals, are an illustration of a sustained impact by ARCCSS. To ensure this has long-term consequences, the publication of software and data is becoming increasingly common and Centre objectives around delivering these to the community have been met. Finally, we note under each research program our key objectives in 2017 and in the first half of 2018. As in previous years, we welcome collaboration in these priorities by researchers from outside the Centre. We encourage interested researchers to contact the research program lead in the first instance.

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THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CONVECTION ON AUSTRALIA’S CLIMATE

Highlights Paper published in GRL (Bergemann & Jakob 2016), which identifies that coastal convection forms in much drier environments than non-coastal convection Paper published in GRL (Vincent et al. 2016), which develops a new index that captures mesoscale and intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the Maritime Continent Completion of a 10-year convection-permitting simulation over the entire Maritime Continent PhD completion by Malcolm King Visit by Andrew Gettelman (NCAR) and PhD student Leah Grant (Colorado State University) Strong engagement with the UK Met Office as part of the convective-scale working group Christian Jakob received the AGU Ascent Award.

Team Chief Investigators

PhD Students

A/Prof Todd Lane (Lead, U.Melb) Prof Christian Jakob (Monash University) Prof Michael Reeder (Monash University) Prof Steven Sherwood (UNSW)

Rachel Badlan (U.Melb) Jiawei Bao (UNSW) Martin Bergemann (Monash University) Vidhi Bharti (Monash University) Yingjun Chen (U.Melb) Scott Clark (Monash University) Maxime Colin (UNSW) Sonya Fiddes (U.Melb) Lam Hoang (Monash University) Malcolm King (U.Melb) David Kinniburgh (Monash University) Nidhi Nishant (UNSW) Sandra Richard (U.Melb) Fimi Sarmadi (Monash University)

Partner Investigators Dr Harry Hendon (BoM) Dr Alain Protat (BoM) Dr Wojciech Grabowski (NCAR, USA) Dr Sandrine Bony (IPSL, France)

Centre Researchers Dr Martin Jucker (U.Melb) Dr Benjamin Moebis (Monash University) Dr Abhik Santra (Monash University) Dr Claire Vincent (U.Melb) Dr Yue Zheng (UNSW)

Associate Investigators Prof Ross Griffiths (ANU) Dr Yi Huang (Monash University) Dr Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR, USA) Dr Hamish Ramsay (Monash University) Dr Robyn Schofield (U.Melb) A/Prof Steven Siems (Monash University) A/Prof Kevin Walsh (U.Melb) Dr Rob Warren (Monash University) Dr Matthew Wheeler (BoM)

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Summary Maritime Continent Activities The Maritime Continent has continued to be a region of focus for the Convection research program. This region, which includes the northern parts of Australia as well as Indonesia and Malaysia, is of critical importance for global and Australian climate. It is characterised by significant multi-scale variability, ranging from intraseasonal oscillations and monsoons, down to coastal circulations. Sugata Narsey (PhD student) investigated the dynamics of Australian monsoon rainfall bursts. He found that the atmospheric circulation changes accompanying monsoon bursts were typically caused by influences from the south of the monsoon region. The physical phenomena that cause the southerly influence on the Australian monsoon are mid-latitude fronts or troughs. Building on these results, Sugata Narsey is evaluating the dynamics of the Australian monsoon in climate models. This will hopefully lead to better projections of rainfall for northern Australia, an area where current climate change projections are highly uncertain. Dr Claire Vincent ran a 10-year set of high-resolution (fourkilometre grid spacing) simulations over the Maritime

Continent using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model (see Figure 1). The simulations were unique in covering a larger area at high resolution than had been previously attempted in the region, making it possible to explore the interplay between intraseasonal variability and mesoscale circulations that are critical in determining the diurnal cycle. This data set will be published and is already being used by members of the scientific community for a range of applications. In addition to the above simulations, Dr Vincent developed a new index to characterise the intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the Maritime Continent. This index is based on the ratio of rainfall over the land to that over the sea, and its application demonstrated that many classes of intraseasonal events (e.g., the Madden-Julian Oscillation and equatorial Rossby waves) have a similar impact on the Maritime Continent rainfall. This index highlights the importance of larger-scale controls on the diurnal cycle in the region. PhD student Anil Deo and Associate Professor Kevin Walsh have been examining observations of rainfall in tropical cyclones. They showed that the drop size distribution of tropical cyclone rainfall over Darwin differs from the drop size distribution in non-tropical cyclone rainfall, and that this might have implications for the methods used to

WRF: Time (LST of daily precipitation maximum (10 year DJF average)

LST 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0

10S 100E 110E 120E 130E 140E 150E TRIMM: Time (LST of daily precipitation maximum (10 year DJF average)

LST 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0

10S 100E 110E 120E 130E 140E 150E CMORPH: Time (LST of daily precipitation maximum (10 year DJF average)

10S 100E

110E

120E

130E

140E

150E

LST 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0

Figure 1: The time of maximum rainfall over the Maritime Continent. Comparison between the 10-year (DJF) (a) WRF simulation and satellite estimates of rainfall from (b) TRMM, and (c) CMORPH.

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Figure 2: A conceptual model of deep convection development associated with the sea breeze (from Bergemann and Jakob 2016).

estimate rainfall intensity from radar signals. They have also investigated the ability of satellites to estimate tropical cyclone rainfall over Fiji, finding that the satellite-derived rainfall generally underestimated observed gauge rainfall for heavy rainfall events.

Coastal Processes Weather and climate models with parameterized convection produce large rainfall errors in tropical coastal regions, and poor representations of mesoscale coastal processes are a likely cause. Thus, alongside our emphasis on the Maritime Continent, understanding coastal convection has emerged as a research area of high priority. Using an algorithm he has developed as part of his PhD studies, Martin Bergemann conducted an investigation of the environmental conditions responsible for coastal and non-coastal tropical rainfall. He found that coastal rainfall occurs in significantly drier mid-tropospheric conditions

than rainfall not associated with coastlines. Sea breeze effects that moisten the atmosphere on scales not resolved by climate models have been hypothesized as a possible physical mechanism (see Figure 2). This finding has inspired a new approach to parameterization, based initially on a trigger function designed to represent sea breezes; this approach is being tested in an idealized framework. Ewan Short (masters student) and Andrew Brown (honours student) contributed to the understanding of the diurnal cycle of coastal winds in the tropics using satellite scatterometer wind measurements over the sea. Ewan characterised sea/land breeze circulation over the whole Maritime Continent, and Andrew examined the offshore extent of the observed land and sea breeze disturbance around Darwin relative to that in the WRF and the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) models, and the variation in behaviour with phases of the Australian monsoon.

>36 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Figure 3: Observations from the Research Vessel Investigator. Dr Claire Vincent, Sonya Fiddes and colleagues launching a tethered balloon kite to measure the tropical sea-breeze circulation.

In September-October 2016, Dr Claire Vincent, Dr Robyn Schofield, PhD student Sonya Fiddes and Rob Ryan joined the Research Vessel Investigator voyage to the Great Barrier Reef, where they collected an unprecedented data set of observations of the tropical sea breeze at distances of around 70 km from the coast, using a measurement unit attached to a tethered balloon kite (see Figure 3). These data fill an important gap in observing the tropical sea breeze offshore, and will be analysed in combination with highresolution modelling. Dr Schofield, Rob Ryan and Sonya Fiddes were also involved in a simultaneous land-based campaign AIRBOX which involved collecting complementary atmospheric chemistry data, the main focus of which was to investigate if aerosols produced by the Great Barrier Reef can have an impact on local climate and precipitation.

Large-scale cloud and convection processes In 2016 researchers in the Convection program conducted a range of investigations that explored the large-scale behaviour of convection, its response to thermodynamic changes in the mean state, and a range of approaches that inform and develop new parameterizations for climate models. Dr Benjamin Moebis is using the Stochastic Multicloud Model (SMCM), which is being developed as the basis of a new closure for massflux-type convection parameterizations for climate models. He has been using the Darwin C-Band Polarimetric Radar (C-POL) radar to tune the SMCM to realistically represent the fractions of cumulus congestus and deep convection. An important aspect of this approach is that it allows congestus and deep convection to occur simultaneously within a grid box. Dr Benjamin Moebis is

currently testing implementations of this scheme, with plans to run a series of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) style simulations in the coming year to evaluate its performance. Maxime Colin’s research is aimed at understanding the key processes in the “memory” of convection. This is a crucial topic for current climate models, which still fail to represent important characteristics of convection accurately, such as the diurnal cycle and the spatial organisation of convection, both memory related. Based on simulations at relatively high resolution, the sources of convective memory are investigated via perturbation experiments. Water vapour and temperature appear to be the most important variables to carry the memory of convection. Secondly, this project analyses the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) General Circulation Model (GCM), since it has the rare feature of representing the effects of cold pools, which provide a key feature to enhance and explicitly describe the memory of convection. Sensitivity tests are being carried out to harness the cold-pool impact on memory. Jiawei Bao has been investigating how precipitation changes with temperature. This work is motivated by the range of changes reported in previous observational studies, including strong rates of precipitation increases with temperature in midlatitudes but weak or negative rates in the tropics. Observations and New South Wales-Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) models used to analyse daily extreme precipitation events in several Australian cities reveal that temporary local cooling associated with extreme events and associated synoptic conditions reduces these apparent scaling rates, especially in warmer climatic conditions. Yet, the strongest extremes

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 37 <

Figure 4: Results from three simulations of convection associated with a roll cloud line with artificially modified moisture. (a) reduced moisture, (b) control simulation, and (c) increased moisture.

scale slightly faster than regional column water vapour and significantly faster than surface moisture, suggesting a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate. Malcolm King continued his PhD investigations of the modulation of tropical precipitation by the five-day Rossby-Haurwitz wave. Comparison between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Phase 5 (CMIP-5) models, European Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim reanalysis and Tropical Rain Analysis Measuring Mission (TRMM) data suggests that basic dynamics of the Rossby-Haurwitz waves are mostly independent of the quality of the simulation of their interaction with convection. Although there is a large spread in how well the models replicate the precipitation anomaly magnitudes and spatial patterns, they all have realistic five-day wave wind fields. This result suggested that the interaction between the five-day wave and tropical convection is largely one way, with little feedback from the modulation of convection back upon the five-day wave dynamics.

Convective-scale processes Understanding of the processes controlling the initiation and organisation of convection remains an impediment to the parameterization of convection in global models. Here at the Centre of Excellence we conduct research with highresolution models to better understand these processes, as well as evaluating such models against a suite of observations. Dr Evan Weller has led the development and implementation of an automated, objective method to identify instantaneous low-level convergence lines. The study used reanalysis data for the period 1979â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2013 and identified convergence lines associated with concurrent precipitation observations. It was revealed that a large percentage of precipitation (between 65-90%) over the tropical oceans is associated with such convergence lines, with large regional variations of up to 30% throughout the year, especially in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Over land, the annual-mean proportion

of precipitation associated with convergence lines ranges between 30-60%, and the lowest proportions (less than 15%) associated with convergence lines occur on the eastern flank of the subtropical highs. The method is now being applied to an ensemble of global climate models, to investigate the future changes in convergence lines and how this relates to the total future precipitation change as simulated by the models. A similar avenue of investigation is the initiation of moist convection by convective rolls. Dr Abhnil Prasad simulated cloud lines observed during January 2016 over northeastern Australia using the Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF). The simulations were constrained and evaluated with observations from satellite and radiosondes at Darwin to compute uncertainties relating to model and observations. Convergence lines driven by sea breezes matched with streets of roll clouds at finer resolution, but differences in timing of propagation resulted from using different boundary conditions. Of interest was that the model underestimated relative humidity by 20% in the boundary layer. Compensating for this bias during initialization produced more realistic simulations of convergence lines, streets of roll clouds and convection (see Figure 4). Dr Martin Jucker joined the Centre in April 2016 with the primary goal of evaluating convection-permitting versions of the Unified Model (UM). He has since conducted a series of simulations over Darwin and worked closely with the UK Meterological Office on testing pre-release versions of the UM. Dr Jucker and Associate Professor Todd Lane have joined the UK Met Office convective-scale working group, highlighting that improving convection-permitting versions of the UM is a priority area for both the ARCCSS and the UK Met Office. Dr Juckerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s work focuses on several key measures of convective activity and is built upon previous work -by Dr Vincent with the WRF model, and by Hanh Nguyen (Bureau of Meteorology) with the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (CCESS) as well as data from the CPOL radar measurements over Darwin.

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RP Convection â&#x20AC;&#x201D; Statement of Intent for 2017 Level Intent 1

Further engage with BoM on Maritime Continent Initiative, including planning for the Year of the Maritime Continent Experiment [links with Land]

Continue to examine causes of ACCESS biases in the Maritime Continent [links with Variability]

Evaluate and improve convection-permitting versions of ACCESS/UM

Examine heat and energy budgets of convection in the Maritime Continent in high-resolution WRF simulations

Coarse-grain the high-resolution simulations for use in parameterization development

Determine causes of noise in the ACCESS convection scheme, study its influence on tropical rainfall and propose solutions

Investigate the role of cold pools in convective memory in CRMs and in a GCM

Quantify the net larger-scale impact of sea breeze and other mesoscale circulations introduced by surface heterogeneity in a way that such effects can be parameterized

Investigate the use of simple statistical models to represent coastal effects on convection and commence the implementation of a new prototype cumulus parameterization based on the SMCM

Conduct a set of very high-resolution simulations over Darwin with horizontal grid spacing of 100200 m.

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2017, to be wrapped up in first half of 2018 â&#x20AC;&#x192;

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MECHANISMS EXPLAINING CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES

Highlights Andrea Dittus was awarded her PhD and Mitchell Black submitted his thesis Contributions to five of the event-attribution studies in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s annual report on last year’s climate extremes A study in Geophysical Research Letters identifies a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events back as far as the 1930s and shows that without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred Sophie Lewis commenced a DECRA Fellowship in February 2016 Progress on new research into ocean heatwaves A Nature Climate Change study showed that global warming was increasing rain in the world’s driest areas A study in Geophysical Research Letters investigated the regional and large-scale interannual processes associated with extreme Australian spring temperatures observed in 2013-2015 Several Extremes program team members led workshops on behalf of the WMO in Fiji, Barbados and India. These workshops are designed to bring met services and sectors together to develop ways to best use climate information for sector-specific applications In collaboration with the Land program, a study in Environmental Research Letters showed how antecedent soil moisture conditions affect the characteristics of Australian heatwaves The Extremes program made a substantial contribution to a special issue of Climatic Change on natural hazards in Australia, including papers on floods, droughts, heatwaves and sea level and coastal extremes.

Team Chief Investigators

Dr Pandora Hope (CAWCR-BoM) Dr Peter Stott (Hadley Centre, UK) Dr Ian Watterson (CSIRO)

A/Prof Jason Evans (UNSW) Dr Ailie Gallant (Monash University) Dr Donna Green (UNSW) Dr Benjamin Henley (U.Melb) A/Prof Neil Holbrook (UTAS) Dr Sophie Lewis (ANU) Prof Neville Nicholls (Monash University) Dr Eric Oliver (UTAS) Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (UNSW) Dr Hamish Ramsay (Monash University) A/Prof Scott Sisson (UNSW) Dr Andrea Taschetto (UNSW) A/Prof Kevin Walsh (U.Melb)

Associate Investigators

Centre Researchers

A/Prof Julie Arblaster (Monash University) Dr Jessica Benthuysen (UTAS/CSIRO) Dr Ghyslaine Boschat (U.Melb) Dr Jennifer Catto (Monash University) Dr Markus Donat (UNSW)

Dr Nicholas Herold (UNSW) Dr Andrew King (U.Melb) Dr Evan Weller (Monash University)

A/Prof Lisa Alexander (Lead - UNSW) Prof Nathaniel Bindoff (University of Tasmania) Prof David Karoly (U.Melb) Prof Andrew Pitman (UNSW) Prof Michael Reeder (Monash University) Prof Steven Sherwood (UNSW)

Partner Investigators

>40 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

PhD Students Oliver Angelil (UNSW) Natasha Ballis (U.Melb) Jiawei Bao (UNSW) Mitchell Black (U.Melb) Steefan Contractor (UNSW) Nathan Cooper (UNSW) Raktima Dey (ANU) Andrea Dittus (U.Melb) Peter Gibson (UNSW) James Goldie (UNSW) Mia Gross (UNSW) Ned Haughton (UNSW) Lam Hoang (Monash University) Stephanie Jacobs (Monash University) David Kinniburgh (Monash University) Yiling Liu (UNSW) Tammas Loughran (UNSW) Marissa Parry (UNSW) Daniel Pazmino Vernaza (U.Melb) Acacia Pepler (UNSW) Cassandra Rogers (Monash University) Elizabeth Vogel (U.Melb)

Summary The Extremes research program team has had another productive year with the publication of many high-impact studies in top-ranking journals, including Nature Climate Change. Engagement with international researchers has led to collaborations with scientists from Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NASA, UK Hadley Centre, Climate Central, ETH Zurich and the University of Reading amongst others. The group has made substantial contributions to the special supplement of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. One paper led by Professor David Karoly focused on the dry October in Tasmania and showed that anthropogenic climate change and El Niño made small but significant contributions to increasing the likelihood of the recordlow rainfall. Another paper led by PhD student Mitch Black focused on the hot October across southern Australia and showed that anthropogenic climate change was found to have a substantial influence. A third paper led by Dr Andrew King analysed heat and drought in Indonesia, finding that El Niño and human-induced climate change have substantially increased the likelihood of rainfall deficits and high temperatures respectively.

Dr Markus Donat led an investigation of changes in total and extreme precipitation in the world’s wettest and driest regions published in Nature Climate Change (see Figure. 1). Dr Donat also led a study comparing changes in climate extremes across a range of century-long observational and observations-constrained data sets, and found that there is mostly good inter-data-set agreement after about 1950 but there are inconsistencies in the first half of the 20th century. Dr Ailie Gallant and Dr Sophie Lewis showed that the repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in the Australian spring of 2013 and 2014 would have been unlikely without anthropogenic influences. Dr Nicholas Herold led two studies. A Geophysical Research Letters study revealed the dreary state of precipitation observations in global data sets, with daily precipitation intensity measures varying by up to ~3mm/day across observational products, which is about the same as the difference across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP-5) models. This suggests that observations of average rainfall intensity at this scale are no better than what models predict and has implications for the validation of model rainfall (i.e., when so many observations show little agreement, which data set(s) should be used to validate the models?). An Environmental Research Letters study

Figure 1: Precipitation changes in the dry and wet regions identified from observations (from Donat et al. 2016).

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Figure 2: Heatwave schematic illustrating the various physical processes contributing to heatwaves, the interactions and feedbacks existing between them, and time scales on which they operate. Note that not all processes need to be present for a heatwave to occur. Coloured shading indicates the severity of a heatwave (red being more severe), the arrow thickness on the x-axis indicates the temporal length of key mechanisms, and the arrow on the y-axis indicates how the mechanisms on their various time scales may amplify heatwave severity. For example, a particular phase of climate modes may increase the likelihood of heatwaves, which then become more severe once other, shorter time-scale mechanisms (e.g. dry soil and high pressure systems) also occur.

showed that the well-known soil moisture-temperature feedback leads to asymmetric impacts on Australian summer heatwave characteristics. It was found that in response to reduced antecedent soil moisture, mild heatwaves get hotter faster than strong heatwaves, while long heatwaves grow in duration faster than short heatwaves. A study led by Dr Andrew King identified a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events back as far as the 1930s. Without human-induced climate change recent hot years globally would be extremely unlikely to have occurred. Even at regional scales significant influences of human-induced climate change were found for record hot years and summers going back to the 1980s. In Australia, the last three record hot summers and six record hot years were all made more likely to occur due to the human influence on the climate. This work was reported in The Conversation (https:// theconversation.com/we-traced-the-human-fingerprint-onrecord-breaking-temperatures-back-to-the-1930s-55438).

Dr Lewis had a paper in Weather and Climate Extremes on misperceptions about the causes of extremes. Also, a paper by her will be published this month in the WMO Bulletin on communicating the science of extreme weather and climate events more clearly. Additionally, Dr Lewis has assumed a role as editor of the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. Chief Investigators, Associate Investigators and Partner Investigators contributed to papers on floods, droughts and coastal extremes. Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al. produced an overview paper of heatwaves in Australia as part of a special issue of Climatic Change on natural hazards in Australia. The paper identified the significant progress that has been achieved in the measurement of heatwaves, the physical mechanisms that drive them, and current and future large-scale trends (see Figure 2). However, more research is required to understand the coupling between heatwaves and the land surface, how the driving physical mechanisms will change in the future, and how large-scale changes in heatwaves correspond to those on smaller scales.

>42 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Figure 3: A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. From Hobday et al. 2016

To date, very little research has focused on marine heatwaves. This field is in its infancy, with a comprehensive measuring framework only recently proposed. We know very little about what drives marine heatwaves, their observed and future changes, and the extent of their impacts. The Extremes program and the Oceans program have collaborated in several studies focusing on marine heatwaves, with the first study, A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves, being published in Progress in Oceanography (see Figure 3) and a further study on global marine heatwave trends being submitted to Nature Climate Change. Overall, this review paper concluded that extensive research investment is required on the topic of marine heatwaves, as well as focusing on a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric heatwave dynamics, understanding heatwave links with droughts and working towards a more unified measurement framework. Students at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science have continued to make an impact by having their research published in the peer-reviewed literature. Amongst others who had papers published over the last year were

Oliver Angelil (Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products, in Weather and Climate Extremes), Mitchell Black (The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand, in Geoscientific Model Development), Peter Gibson (Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP-5 climate models over the Australian region, in Climate Dynamics) and Acacia Pepler (Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century, in Geophysical Research Letters; Australian midlatitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble, in the International Journal of Climatology; Zonal winds and southeast Australian rainfall in global and regional climate models, in Climate Dynamics).

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Workshops In collaboration with the Oceans program and international collaborators, investigation of marine heatwaves has continued. A number of studies are underway, one of which has already been published in Progress in Oceanography and outlines a more quantitative approach to defining marine heatwaves so that regional studies can be more easily compared and global trends more easily analysed. The work on marine heatwaves has been of particular media interest since there have been record-breaking sea temperatures around Tasmania in 2016 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/201604-20/tasmanian-marine-heatwave-longest-since-recordsbegan/7340366). A workshop is planned for February 2017 in Thailand. Several Extremes program team members (Associate Professor Lisa Alexander, Dr Herold, Acacia Pepler) led training workshops in Fiji, Barbados and India under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization’s Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI). These workshops introduced regional MetService participants and sector participants (e.g., agriculture, health, water) to the ET-SCI climate extremes indices and to the software used to calculate them. Feedback from the workshops was excellent and more are planned in the future. Several Extremes program team members (Dr King, Prof Karoly, A/Prof Alexander) attended the International Detection and Attribution Group meeting in Boulder, Colorado in February 2016. The Extremes program continues with regular monthly video conferences where all Chief Investigators, Associate Investigators and Partner Investigators and students are invited to hear a volunteer from the group speak about their latest (usually unpublished) work.

RRP Extremes — Statement of Intent for 2017 Level

Intent

Use SST-driven runs (including C20C+) and soil-moisture-forced runs to understand the effect of natural variability, including large-scale modes such as ENSO, and land surface forcing on extremes [links to Land, Variability] [King, Ma (Land), Karoly, Perkins-Kirkpatrick (Angelil/ Loughran), Lewis, Gallant (Variability), Herold, Santoso (Variability), Taschetto (Variability), Donat (Garcia-Villada)]

Investigate uncertainties (including parameter, initial conditions, spatial scale, model dependence) using weather@home and C20C+ in order to assess the sensitivity of attribution statements [Karoly, King, Perkins-Kirkpatrick (Angelil)]

Assess changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia over the 21st century using regional (e.g. NARCLIM) and global (e.g. CMIP-5) models, with a focus on sector-specific (e.g. agriculture, health, water) impacts [Herold, Alexander, Evans (Land)]

With national and international collaborators, continue to investigate methods and examples for the attribution of climate-related extreme events (ACE), including the unusually wet Australian winter, and recent marine and atmospheric heatwaves; and continue contributing publications to the annual BAMS reports [All]

Continue to investigate how probability distribution functions of temperature have changed globally in observations, renalyses and models with respect to extremes and how these will change in the future under different emissions scenarios using the CMIP-5 archive [Donat, Sherwood (Convection), Karoly, Alexander (Gross), Lewis, King]

Detailed studies of marine heatwaves will be performed with a focus on the attribution of 2016 events, specifically the record warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in early 2016 and the concurrent record warm seas around Tasmania [Perkins-Kirkpatrick, King, Oliver]

Investigate climate extremes under global warming of 1.5ºC and 2ºC in Australia and overseas. Contribute to international modelling experiments designed to understand implications of 1.5ºC and 2ºC warming. [King, Karoly, Perkins-Kirkpatrick]

Investigate large-scale and regional conditions related to the hottest days of the year to understand regional differences in extreme temperature changes. [Donat, Pitman (Land)]

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2017, to be wrapped up in first half of 2018

>44 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

El Niño revealed in all its glory

orking with the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science produced a detailed highresolution ocean animation video of the largest El Niño ever recorded. It used a 30-kilometre horizontal grid and split the vertical depth into 50 cells. Led by Dr Agus Santoso, the production of the animation showed how ocean observations allow us to see months in advance the development and inevitable destruction of an El Niño event. The particular event chosen for this animation video was the largest on record in the summer of 1997/98, and the video continues on to show the ensuing La Niña events that followed over the next two years.

The video highlighted how important international ocean observation networks are for Australia. It showed simply and strongly how the data delivered by these networks gives us advanced notification of climate events that have a direct and profound impact on Australia and the rest of the world. The illustrated event was known to have caused billions of dollars of damage worldwide, including massive forest fires in Indonesia, catastrophic flooding in Peru and the first global coral bleaching event that killed 16% of the world’s corals in a single year.

The animation video was released to the public in mid December and was picked up by IFLS , with more than six million followers, and a range of other media outlets. Within days it had more than 5000 views and it is likely to The animation video was the become a useful tool for the result of 30,000 computer Centre of Excellence in the hours crunching ocean model years ahead. data on the supercomputer, Raijin. The NCI Vizlab team There are also current then transformed this data plans to use this as part of a so that it showed the shifting Fairfax Media “explainer” pools of warm and cold video and online series as water 300 metres down into part of a partnership the the ocean. Centre launched with Fairfax in 2015.

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THE ROLE OF LAND SURFACE FORCING AND FEEDBACKS FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE

Highlights Four papers in Nature family journals Ongoing contribution to/ leadership of international projects to benchmark land surface models A new theoretical basis for understanding potential evaporation has been developed in collaboration with Centre partner, ETH-Zurich New insights into the performance of land surface models under seasonal drought conditions First analysis of land-atmosphere coupling using a resistance pathway framework Contributed to the development of new insights into the role of vegetation in controlling the surface water and energy balance over the extensive Savanna biome Former PhD student Annette Hirsch graduated and took up a postdoctoral position at ETH Zurich Increasing engagement with plant physiology and ecological research communities in Australia A new model for pan evaporation developed, evaluated and published Major paper establishing the statistical methods required for establishing the role of Amazonian deforestation on climate.

Team Chief Investigators

PhD Students

Prof Michael Roderick (Lead, ANU) Prof Andrew Pitman (UNSW) A/Prof Lisa Alexander (UNSW) A/Prof Todd Lane (U.Melb)

Arden Burrell (UNSW) Wasin Chaivaranont (UNSW) Xi Chen (UNSW) Emily Goodale (ANU) Ned Haughton (UNSW) Nadja Herger (UNSW) Sanaa Hobeichi (UNSW) Carlo Jamandre (UNSW) Mathew Lipson (UNSW) Sugata Narsey (Monash University) Alexander Norton (U.Melb) Eytan Rocheta (UNSW) Elisabeth Vogel (U.Melb)

Partner Investigators Prof Hoshin Gupta (University of Arizona, USA) Dr Christa Peters-Lidard (NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, USA) Prof Rowan Sutton (NCAS, UK) Dr Ying Ping Wang (CAWCR-CSIRO)

Centre Researchers Dr Daniel Argueso (UNSW) Dr Mark Decker (UNSW) Dr Melissa Hart (UNSW) Dr Jatin Kala (UNSW) Dr Sophie Lewis (ANU) Dr Ruth Lorenz (UNSW) Dr Shaoxiu Ma (UNSW) Dr Anna Ukkola (UNSW)

Associate Investigators Dr Gab Abramowitz (UNSW) Dr Randall Donohue (CSIRO) A/Prof Jason Evans (UNSW) Dr Jean-Francois Exbrayat (U. Edinburgh) Prof Graham Farquhar (ANU) A/Prof Michael Gagan (ANU) Dr Benjamin Henley (U.Melb) Dr Jatain Kala (UNSW) Dr Yi Liu (UNSW) Dr Ian Macadam (UK Met Office) Dr Timothy McVicar (CSIRO) A/Prof Katrin Meissner (UNSW) Prof Peter Rayner (U.Melb)

>46 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Summary During the year, the Land research program has undertaken a series of inter-disciplinary studies focusing on landatmosphere interactions. These have strengthened ongoing collaborations with scientists from the international community including ETH-Zurich, the UK Meteorological Office and NASAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Goddard Space Flight Center (GDFC). In addition, researchers on multiple projects have built deeper collaboration with Australian plant physiology and ecological research communities. We have also made major contributions to land model evaluation and the science of land processes and feedbacks. In terms of staffing, Dr Sophie Lewis moved to an Associate Investigator role as she began her Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) fellowship at ANU and, in turn, we welcomed Dr Dongqin Yin, a PhD graduate from Tsinghua University in Beijing to the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS). Dr Yin will be working on model formulation and model evaluation related especially to changes in the water cycle. She is located at the ANU node. In terms of earth system science we made two important contributions during 2016. In the first, Centre director and Land program team member, Professor Andy Pitman, worked with Dr Ruth Lorenz to investigate the response of the Amazon rainforest region to changes in land clearing. The first paper (Lorenz et al., 2016) established a firm statistical framework for determining whether a deforestation of the Amazon could have an impact on climate. Over the last decade there have been numerous investigations of the climatic impacts (e.g., changes in temperature, rainfall, etc.) of land clearing on this diverse biome. While there is much general agreement that replacing tall rainforest trees with short grass would lead to increases in local temperature, and perhaps local rainfall, there was a wide variety of predictions on what would happen remotely. Working with Associate Investigator Scott Sisson, the authors used a wide spectrum of statistical tests to show that most forecast a high rate of false positives. When tests with low levels of false positives were used, no remote impacts of deforestation were found.

With that background, Pitman and Lorenz (2016) configured the the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) 1.3b model (that incorporated the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model) to simulate the effects of clearing on the surface water and energy budgets as a function of the scale of deforestation. They were able to show that some of the effects on rainfall occurred outside the deforested regions, immediately surrounding the deforestation region, which raised important questions about how the impacts of deforestation should be assessed in future experiments. The other high-level earth system contribution involved the development, evaluation and publication of a new pan evaporation model by Dr Wee-Ho Lim with Professors Michael Roderick and Graham Farquhar (Lim et al 2016). Long-term readers of our annual reports will remember Dr Lim as the first PhD graduate of ARCCSS in 2013. Since then Dr Lim has been first at the Toyko Institute of Technology followed by a two-year stint as the Martin Fellow at Oxford University. The published study was the last part of the Dr Limâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s PhD and sought to make more effective use of the world-wide pan evaporation database for model evaluation and for understanding trends in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. That is important because evaporation pans, so long the workhorse of agricultural climatology, are the only true observable measure of atmospheric evaporative demand in existence. Even more interesting is that worldwide intercomparisons have shown atmospheric evaporative demand to be steadily declining worldwide since the 1950s. Work on this topic by an ANU-CSIRO team nearly a decade earlier established the now standard PenPan model for pan evaporation. Dr Lim has now extended the original PenPan model by developing new approaches to account for the albedo of the whole pan system (pan walls plus water surface) and evaluated these new developments using an elite Australian database for pan evaporation that was based on Bureau of Meteorology measurements. The new model, named PenPan-V2 can now be used worldwide and will hopefully lead to increased understanding of why atmospheric evaporative demand has been declining.

type Croplands Decidous Broadleaf Forest Evergreen Broadleaf Forest Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Grasslands Mixed Forests Permanent Wetlands Savannas Woody Savannas

Figure 1: The locations of 20 flux tower sites used in the PLUMBER experiment. The numbers at each site represent the number of years of data used. Adapted from Figure 1 in Haughton et al (2016)

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Figure 2: Simulated and observed evapotranspiration (left scale) during an example one-year period. The ET time series shows the 14-day running mean from Jan to Dec. The grey bars show seven-day precipitation totals (right scale). Adapted from Ukkola et al (2016a)

Land Model Development, Evaluation and Approaches to Modelling In terms of the Land program at the Centre of Excellence, 2016 could be called the Year of Land Surface Model (LSM) Evaluation. The two high-profile activities of the year included an evaluation of LSMs under seasonal drought and a formal international evaluation, using the model evaluation tool known as Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface (PALS). The latter project, known as PLUMBER (PALS Land sUrface Model Benchmarking Evaluation pRoject) evaluated

eight leading LSMs at 20 different flux sites (Haughton et al 2016) (see Figure 1). While it had previously been known that many of the models were unable to accurately simulate the seasonal time courses of latent and sensible heat fluxes from the land surface, the reasons for model failure were unknown. Here, the formal framework established by PALS proved invaluable for systematically tracking down the source of model errors. The international team working on this included scientists from Australia, the United States and many European countries. Led by ARCCSS PhD student, Ned Haughton, the team found that while most models did a

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reasonable job of estimating the net irradiance, it was able to pinpoint a problem area: the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes. This is central to LSM performance and the team’s identification of this problem represents a new level of model evaluation formalism within the climate land science community. A related study led by ARCCSS postdoctoral scientist, Dr Anna Ukkola, evaluated the ability of eight different LSMs to simulate seasonal droughts at six different worldwide sites (Ukkola et al 2016a) (see Figure 2). Given the findings of the previously noted PLUMBER study, it was no real surprise to find that model performance was perhaps not as good as it needs to be for many applications. To put that result in perspective, many previous climate (and LSM) model evaluations have tended to focus on the annual averages of relevant quantities because that was considered the key factor for understanding the (30-year average) climate. The results of our new study demonstrate that the ability to simulate the annual average is no guarantee that we can simulate the seasonal cycle or the climate extremes. In a closely related companion study also led by Dr Ukkola, we evaluated a new version of the Australian LSM-Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) – that included a new hydrologic scheme developed by Dr Mark Decker — against the older version of CABLE (Ukkola et al 2016b). Over annual time steps there was little difference between the old and new versions but at seasonal time scales there were important differences. The results showed that the new hydrology incorporated into CABLE has value but there is still work to be done. Finally, ARCCSS scientists contributed to a Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) led study involving a consortium of Australian plant physiologists and ecologists who evaluated the ability of eight different LSMs to simulate gross primary productivity and the latent heat flux at five flux sites in the top end of the Northern Territory (Whiteley et al 2016). Careful analysis showed that specifying the dynamic nature of vegetation proved critical to model performance. This is a reminder that many (if not most) LSM schemes used in current climate models include seasonally varying vegetation but the vegetation seasonal cycle repeats from one year to the next. In short, the vegetation is unable to adapt to the prevailing conditions and this represents a shortcoming of current LSMs. It is not surprising that one of the long-term grand challenges of the Land program is to incorporate dynamic vegetation into CABLE and other LSMs.

Land Processes and Feedbacks As noted at the start of the report, pan evaporation is the only measure we currently have of the atmospheric evaporative demand. It is a measureable quantity and closely related to a quantity called potential evaporation that has been widely used in offline hydrologic impact models. This has led to many problems because projected increases in potential evaporation have led many to interpret the future for many regions as being one of increased aridity. Recently, following research reported last year that was led by Professor Roderick, there has been a growing realisation that one of the problems in the current use of potential evaporation is that it is an ill-defined quantity. Conceptually, potential evaporation represents the rate of evaporation when water is not limiting. However, in hydrologic practice it has become common practice to measure the radiation, temperature, humidity and wind and then calculate potential evaporation assuming water is freely available. There is a conceptual problem with this approach in dry environments, like those that cover most of Australia. The problem is

that if water were freely available for evaporation then the radiation, temperature, humidity and wind would likely be very different because the surface and near-surface atmospheres are tightly coupled. In a long running Centresupported collaboration with scientists from ETH-Zurich, we were able to develop an entirely new theoretical framework that can quantitatively account for changes in surface coupling when a landscape dries (or wets) (Aminzadeh et al 2016). This is an exciting development and we look forward to applying the new theory when interpreting both observed and projected changes in potential evaporation. While the topic of evaporation changes under global warming has been controversial, there is no controversy that in many temperate parts of the world, spring has been appearing earlier each year because of ongoing warming. One consequence of an earlier spring is an earlier change in the land surface properties (e.g. albedo decreases as ice melts earlier and vegetation greens up earlier). The change in albedo represents a feedback from the land surface to the atmosphere. While this has long been realised, the climate impact of an earlier European spring was first evaluated by ARCCSS scientists in 2016 in a study led by Dr Shaoxiu Ma and published in Geophysical Research Letters (Ma et al 2016) (Figure 3). The research found that an earlier spring was associated with increased heatwaves within 30 days of the spring green-up. An earlier spring is just one instance of a vegetation-related feedback. A further study on the topic of vegetation, led by Dr Ukkola, noted that changes in vegetation can have both positive and negative effects on water resources changes (Ukkola et al 2016c). One of the key vegetation feedbacks relates to increasing atmospheric CO2 and it is now well established that the water-use efficiency of photosynthesis increases as atmospheric CO2 increases. This effect is widely acknowledged in both the plant physiology and terrestrial ecology research communities but it is still to be fully incorporated into the thinking of the hydrology and climate research communities. There are two main challenges. The first is that an increase in water use efficiency could occur because of an increase in photosynthetic carbon uptake or because of a decrease in transpiration, or some combination thereof (see Figure 4). At the moment there is no constraint on and little detailed knowledge about how the increase in water-use efficiency would occur. A further constraint is that most of the detailed knowledge is available from laboratory experiments: how an increase in leaf-scale wateruse efficiency would impact larger-scale hydrologic (e.g. catchment-scale) or climate (e.g. 1 km grid-box) processes is currently unknown. With that in mind, ARCCSS scientists collaborated with a CSIRO team to undertake the first observation-based assessment of changes in precipitation, runoff and vegetation cover over the global tropics (Yang et al 2016). They found that with increasing CO2, there was as yet no evidence for a change in hydrologic partitioning and no evidence for a change in transpiration. The implication is that with fixed transpiration, there must have been a relatively large increase (i.e., ~10%) in photosynthesis across the global tropics. This observation-based study is a global first and there is an urgent need to conduct similar assessments in other major global biomes. How the land interacts with the atmosphere is measured by land-atmosphere coupling. This has been reported on several times in the past but, in her last publication as a PhD student, Annette Hirsch examined how landatmosphere feedbacks could be evaluated using a resistance pathway framework. Hirsch et al. (2016) suggest that land–atmosphere coupling in the modelling system acts

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Figure 3: Difference due to earlier spring greening in (a-c) Tmax and (d-f ) TXx between the experiments and the control in spring. Adapted from Ma et al (2016)

mostly through the aerodynamic resistance from the soil surface to the displacement height, which is a function of both the friction velocity and vegetation height and cover. Their results show that a resistance pathway framework can be used to examine how changes in the resistances affect the partitioning of the surface energy balance and how this subsequently influences surface climate through landâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; atmosphere coupling.

Land Processes and Extremes Many land-related studies on extremes are reported under the Extremes research program. However, we highlight three here because they reflect major advances linked to the Land program. First, we noted earlier that there has been a sustained collaboration between eco-physiologists and the land sciences within the Centre of Excellence. This reached a level of maturity in 2016 that we were able to undertake a truly innovative project that led to a publication in the Nature Publishing Groupâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Scientific Reports by Kala et al. (2016). Stomatal conductance links plant water use and carbon uptake, and is a critical process for the land surface component of climate models. Kala et al. (2016) implemented a new stomatal scheme derived from optimal stomatal theory and constrained by a recent global synthesis of stomatal conductance measurements from 314 species, across 56 field sites. They then used this new stomatal scheme within the ACCESS climate model and simulated the intensity of future heatwaves across Northern Eurasia. They were able to show that previous estimates of heatwave intensity were very likely an underestimate (see Figure 5) with widespread implications for other climate models, many of which do not account for differences in stomatal water use across different plant functional types.

Figure 4: Observed relative changes (%) of Assimilation (A), Evapotranspiration (E) and water-use efficiency (W = A/E) in 18 undisturbed tropical catchments (1982-2010). The black numbers represent the catchment identifier. The blue dashed line (dW/W=12.1%) represents the estimated increase in water-use efficiency due to CO2 alone. Adapted from Yang et al (2016)

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Figure 5: Difference (Experiment minus Control) in mean Boreal summer (June-July-August) showing the change in heatwave intensity (HWI) averaged over 20 year intervals between 2020–2099. Stippling shows regions where differences are statistically significant at the 95% level using the student’s t-test and the false discovery method for field significance.

RP Land — Statement of Intent for 2016 Level

Intent

Investigation of urban land-use/surface characteristics on local and regional climate

Couple a groundwater parameterization into CABLE and ACCESS and then examine the impact of this on simulations of Australian climate/ climate variability

Using PLUMBER results, progress our understanding of CABLE’s performance relative to other land models

Resolve technical coupling of CABLE with ACCESS in collaboration with CSIRO

Global C20C simulations with ACCESS focused on land-cover change

Investigating Australian drought processes using observations and satellite surface-energy estimates

Assess the skill of ACCESS to simulate the frequency, duration and magnitude of drought over the 20th century

Maintain ongoing efforts to benchmark the CABLE model using PALS

Exploration of urban parameterization building on existing efforts in CSIRO

Quantification of land surface influences (e.g., land initialization, land-cover change) on Maritime Continent precipitation.

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2016, to be wrapped up in first half of 2018

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DRIVERS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN EXTRA-TROPICAL AUSTRALIA

Highlights Further development of the ACCESS modelling hierarchy, by now including an ENSO ocean toy model International workshop on ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnections, and Impacts Series of ENSO and climate change studies illustrating how extreme events become stronger and how the warming hiatus will disappear Perturbed physics study illustrating how mean state biases and climate sensitivity uncertainties are linked Catastrophic fires in Victoria are associated with severe cold fronts, and these cold fronts are connected to Rossby wave breaking aloft Changes from break to active phases in the Australian monsoon are driven by midlatitude cold fronts that propagate equatorward Heatwaves in Victoria are more likely when the MJO is active over the Maritime Continent and in La Niña phases of ENSO.

Team Chief Investigators

PhD Students

Associate Investigators

Dr Dietmar Dommenget (Lead, Monash University)  Prof Matthew England (UNSW)  Prof David Karoly (U.Melb) A/Prof Andrew Hogg (ANU)  A/Prof Lisa Alexander (UNSW)  Prof Steven Sherwood (UNSW) Prof Michael Reeder (Monash University)  Prof Michael Roderick (ANU)

Esteban Abellan (UNSW) Natasha Ballis (U.Melb) Pilar Barria (U.Melb) Sushma Chen Reddy (U.Melb) Dipayan Choudhury (UNSW) Scott Clark (Monash University) Anil Deo (U.Melb) Raktima Dey (ANU) Mandy Freund (U.Melb) Lam Hoang (Monash University) Yue Li (UNSW) Tammas Loughran (UNSW) Nicola Maher (UNSW) Sonja Neske (Monash University) Stacey Osbrough (Monash University/ CSIRO) Sarah Perry (UNSW) Byju Pookkandy (Monash University) Saurabh Rathore (UTAS) Robert Ryan (U.Melb) Christian Stassen (Monash University) Nicholas Tyrrell (Monash University) Peter van Rensch (Monash University) Asha Vijayeta (Monash University) Jennifer Wurtzel (ANU)

Dr Nerilie Abram (ANU) Dr Ghyslaine Boschat (U.Melb) Dr Jennifer Catto (Monash University) Dr Allie Gallant (Monash University) Dr Benjamin Henley (U.Melb) Dr Will Hobbs (UTAS) A/Prof Neil Holbrook (UTAS) Dr Nicolas Jourdain (LGGE – France) Dr Angela Maharaj (UNSW) Dr Shayne McGregor (UNSW) Dr Laurie Menviel (UNSW) Prof Neville Nicholls (Monash University) Prof Peter Rayner (U.Melb) Dr Agus Santoso (UNSW) Dr Alex Sen Gupta (UNSW) Dr Andrea Taschetto (UNSW)

Partner Investigators Dr Julie Arblaster (Monash University) Dr Peter Stott (Hadley Centre, UK)  Prof Rowan Sutton (NCAS, UK) Dr Ian Watterson (CSIRO)

Centre Researchers Dr Duncan Ackerley (Monash University) Dr Jules Kajtar (UNSW) Dr Laura O’Brien (Monash University) Dr Julian Quinting (Monash University) Dr Evan Weller (Monash University)

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Summary The Variability research program has an overarching theme that connects to all other research programs. We focus on large-scale climate variability and change that affects Australia, with a particular focus on the regions where most Australians live. We address a wide range of aspects using observations data, model simulations and developments, and theoretical considerations. The research program has organised itself around a number of main themes that reflect the main activities of this program: the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO), weather-climate interactions, seasonal variability, decadal variability and climate change, and model errors. Below we point out a few highlights from the main themes.

ENSO In 2015 to 2016 we experienced one of the biggest El Niño events since modern observations became available, with record-breaking impacts throughout the globe. Spring 2015, for instance, was the hottest October Australia ever recorded, which can be clearly linked to ENSO. The Antarctic sea ice extent in November 2016 was at a record low, which is likely to be related to the large El Niño event on going in the tropical Pacific in 2016. Many of the research activities in this program are connected to the understanding of ENSO dynamics and the impact of ENSO on the global climate system. Raedel et al. (2016), for instance, studied a connection between high-level positive cloud feedbacks and ENSO that suggests cloud feedbacks are at the heart of positive ENSO feedbacks (see Figure 1). A further study by Dommenget and Yu (2016) suggested that cloud feedbacks are also at the heart of the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO; namely, the fact that El Niño events tend to peak in our summer and then disappear. ENSO is the most important driver of global climate variability. During El Niño years, the trade winds, which usually blow from east to west, weaken or even reverse. These anomalous winds are centred over the equatorial

Ocean Pacific prior to the peak of the event but they shift towards south of the equator during the mature phase of these events (around Christmas time). Previous studies have suggested that this meridional wind movement results in the termination of El Niño. Abellan and McGregor (2016) developed a simple model capable of reproducing ENSO and this southward wind shift, and carried out some experiments with and without this shift. We found that this meridional wind shift causes the rapid termination of the events around Christmas time, which results in events peaking near the end of the calendar year, as observed. Another question explored related to how sensitive the Pacific-North Atlantic teleconnections are to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming. In work led by Andrea Taschetto (Taschetto et al., 2016) the atmospheric teleconnections associated with the Eastern Pacific El Niño and El Niño Modoki events on the tropical Atlantic Ocean were investigated. The Eastern Pacific El Niño drives significant warming of the tropical North Atlantic basin during boreal spring after its peak via the atmospheric bridge and tropospheric temperature mechanisms. However, the tropical Atlantic does not show a robust response to El Niño Modoki events. We used a climate model to assess why El Niño Modoki events do not impact the tropical Atlantic. We showed that the location of the El Niño Modoki Sea Surface Temperature (SST) warming during its mature phase could be favourable for exciting atmospheric teleconnections in boreal winter but not in the following spring season, as the mean seasonal atmospheric circulation prevents the signal. We also suggested that the cooling in the eastern Pacific associated with El Niño Modoki counteracts the atmospheric response driven by the central western Pacific warming. We demonstrated that the modelled Pacific-tropical Atlantic teleconnections to an eastern Pacific warming depends strongly on the underlying seasonal cycle of SST. And finally, we found the tropical Atlantic warming in boreal winter plays an important role in the following season, not only during Eastern Pacific El Niños but also during El Niño Modoki events.

Figure 1: Impact of cloud-circulation interactions in the MPI-ESM-LR simulation on Niño-3.4 SST variance. (a) Normalized variance spectra for observations (black), the control run (blue) and the two non-interactive clouds runs (red). For the model, thin lines are individual 200-year periods and thick lines are the average. A seven-month filter is applied before calculating the spectra. (b) Unfiltered Niño-3.4 SST variance in observations and the model. Here, contributions to variance are calculated as the difference between control and the respective non-interactive clouds experiment — for example, the red bar is the variance in the control minus that in non-interactive clouds runs. Adapted from Raedel et al. (2016)

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Figure 2: Dynamics of mid-latitude variability. Composite (a) depth averages diabatic heating anomalies (K/s), (b) 850 hPa temperature anomalies (K), (c) 350 K zonal wind anomalies (m/s). Vectors in panel (a): 200 hPa divergent wind anomalies (m/s). Purple contours in panels (a) and (b): 200 hPa geopotential anomalies = ±[50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400]. Green contour in panel (a): 350 K PV = -2 (PVU). Green contours in panel (c): 350 K jet = [20, 25, 30, 35, 40] (ms−1).

Weather-Climate Interactions Climate is what you expect and weather is what you get, is one way of understanding the link between weather and climate. However, you can also think of weather events being influenced by the background climate state affecting the probability, structure and physical organisation of them. A number of projects in this research program address the interactions between weather and climate. A particularly interesting example is how weather and climate in the tropical regions to the north of Australia link to weather and climate in the extra-tropical regions to the south of Australia. They are connected in a steering cycle that some people call “the Australian washing machine”. The study of Berry and Reeder (2016), for instance, found a clear link between monsoon burst (a few days of intensive rainfalls in the rainy season) in the northern Australian region and extra-tropical atmospheric wave patterns over the Southern Ocean in the Indian sector, suggesting that extra-tropical weather patterns can influence tropical weather patterns (see Figure 2 for an illustration).

Decadal Variability Long-time climate variations lead to persistent climate anomalies over Australia that can have severe impacts, like the millennium drought. Our understanding of such long-time decadal climate variations is still very limited and presents one of the frontiers in climate research. Natural decadal climate variations interact with the long term global warming leading to periods of warming hiatus and periods of accelerated warming. Decadal climate predictions are starting to become available and mark one of the current hot topics in weather/climate forecasting. A number of projects in this research program try to tackle decadal climate variability. Much of our understanding about long-time natural climate variability can only be gained by the collection and analysis of paleo climate proxies. The study by Gergis et al. (2016) presents such an effort for reconstructing the temperature variations in the Australian region over the past millennium. In turn, model simulations can be used to gain understanding of potential natural mode of climate variability on the decadal or longer time scales. The studies of Meehl et al. (2016) and Purich et al. (2016) illustrate how tropical Pacific variability influences the

sea ice extent in Antarctica. These studies highlight once again how interconnected the climate system is, and how remote tropical regions can influence polar climates. Wang et al. (2016) discuss the leading modes of multi-decadal climate variability in the Southern Ocean regions. Their paper not only illustrates the time scales, spatial structure and processes controlling multi-decadal climate variability, it also illustrates that state-of-the-art climate models have substantial problems in simulating these phenomena, reminding us that we still have a long way to go to adequately simulate the complex extra-tropical climates. In another study, Taschetto et al. (2016) investigate whether droughts/wet periods can be generated in the absence of ocean variability. That is, could Australian multi-year droughts and wet spells be generated in the absence of oceanic variability? They found that this is indeed the case; i.e., prolonged droughts and wet periods in Australia can result from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. However, ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe. We also found that the duration of droughts and wet spells lasting more than three years is of comparable length regardless of whether the model simulations include ocean variability. Taschetto et al. (2016) suggest that internally driven mega-rainfall events over the Australian tropics are linked to perturbations in the monsoonal low and zonal winds in the eastern Indian Ocean, while those generated in the southern regions are associated with oscillations in the Southern Annular Mode. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies (see Figure 3). McGregor et al. (2016) investigated the mechanisms responsible for the build-up of equatorial region warm water in the Pacific Ocean. This build-up generally occurs prior to El Niño events and is considered a necessary precondition for event development, while the event initiation is thought to be triggered by bursts of westerly wind. Despite its apparent importance, very little attention has been given to better understanding the causes of this build-up of equatorial region warm water. Existing theory suggests that this build-up of water is thought to occur very slowly and be related to oceanic dynamical adjustment to preceding easterly winds. However, in contrast to the view that warm water slowly builds up years before an El Niño event, the

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Figure 3: Time series of mean annual rainfall (gray lines) averaged over (a)–(c) western Australia (13–35S, 113–129E), (d)–(f ) eastern Australia (11–39S, 138–154E), and (g)–(i) Tasmania (40-44S, 143-150E) for (left) fully coupled and (right) atmospheric simulations. Decadal variations using a smoothed time series with an 11-yr running mean window are shown in blue for the fully coupled run, and brown for atmospheric run. Shaded bars indicate the duration of the five most severe dry (brown) or wet (blue) spells in the simulated decadal time series estimated by the largest cumulative rainfall anomalies.

volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific doubled in the first few months of 2014 and this dramatic warm water build-up coincided with a series of westerly wind bursts in the western tropical Pacific.

impacts of a particular mode on another via a third mode. This result implies that to model and predict a certain mode of variability, such as ENSO, correctly, we also need to ensure good representation of other modes of variability.

This study uses linear wave theory to understand the drivers of equatorial Pacific warm water content. We find that both easterly and westerly wind bursts can build up equatorial region warm water, but what differs between them is the timing of when this build-up occurs. Easterly wind events provide a delayed build-up which occurs about three months after the wind event, while westerly winds provide a near-instantaneous warm water build-up which is discharged after about three months. In fact, our results suggest that the single westerly wind burst, which peaked in the first few days of March in 2014, was largely responsible for the coincident dramatic observed increase in Warm Water Variability (WWV).

Climate Change

Finally, Kajtar et al. (2016) focused on the tough challenge of predicting and modelling ENSO and other modes of climate variability in the tropics. The community has come to a realisation that it is not sufficient to capture what is occurring in the respective ocean basin alone, for instance the tropical Pacific where ENSO originates; for there should be a consideration of what is occurring elsewhere, since climate modes do actually interact. Using a suite of partially coupled experiments with the CSIRO Mk3L climate model, the Kajtar et al. (2016) study demonstrates the complexity of these interactions among ENSO, Indian Ocean variability, and Atlantic Niño. In particular, the study reveals indirect

The 2015 to 2016 El Niño event has led to an acceleration in global warming leading to a wide range of recordbreaking climate extremes. Many recent climate extremes have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change in ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science studies (e.g. Dittus et al. 2016, Gallant et al. 2016, King et al. 2016) illustrating nicely how the Extremes and Variability programs are interrelated. The fast-changing climate has led to more studies addressing how we will or have already moved into “new normals” (Lewis et al. 2016). The study by Donat et al. (2016) addressed rainfall changes over wet and dry regions over land. It found that the general paradigm of the wetget-wetter does not hold over land at all, which illustrates that much has to be learned for better understanding of how the hydrological cycle will change with future global warming (see Figure 4). This is also highlighted in the current discussion about the recent global warming hiatus and our struggle to understand the nature of this event and how this can be rectified with disagreeing model simulations. Fyfe et al. (2016) contributed to this discussion, illustrating that the recent warming hiatus is real and needs to be better understood.

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Figure 4: Simulated precipitation changes in dry and wet regions. Precipitation index changes averaged over the dry (left column) and wet (right column) regions. Historical changes show the average during 1981â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2010, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show the average during 2070â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2099, all relative to the 1951â&#x20AC;&#x201C;1980 average. Horizontal black lines represent the ensemble-mean changes and the coloured boxes show one ensemble standard deviation. Adapted from Donat et al. (2016)

Figure 5: Uncertainties in the global mean (y-axis) and regional climate sensitivity spread (x-axis) in perturbed physics ensembles with the GREB model. For members with both perturbed physics and perturbed control climate (black dots), only perturbed physics (blue) and only perturbed control climates (red). It illustrates that errors in the control climates lead to more uncertainties than error in the physics. Adapted from Dommenget (2016)

Model Biases and Evaluations

hierarchy allows researchers to conduct idealised model simulations and to deconstruct the complexity of the climate system to better understand the process within the climate system. Over the past years the Centre of Excellence has developed a number of elements in the ACCESS modelling hierarchy to address different aspects of large-scale climate variability and change. These included lower-resolution simulations for faster and longer-term model simulations, which allowed us to conduct a series of millennium-scale simulations with different forcings than are currently conducted. The latest member in the ACCESS modelling hierarchy is a single-column ocean upper mixed-layer model that allows us to investigate ocean-atmosphere interaction in the climate system in the absence of any lateral ocean dynamics (Pookkandy et al. 2016). The study by Ackerley and Dommenget (2016) further extended the ACCESS modelling hierarchy by introducing a new concept in controlling the surface temperatures over land within an atmospheric model simulation. This allows a wide range of studies related to the role of land surface temperature variations, regional forcing patterns and errors in climate models, and builds the basis for controlling the mean land surface temperatures within fully coupled model simulations.

Biases in model simulations are still a very serious limitation in our research of climate variability and change. They affect the simulation of the natural modes of climate variability and the processes controlling them, and they affect how the climate system will respond to anthropogenic climate change. The recent global warming hiatus period over the last decades highlighted a number of model simulation biases that we are currently investigating in a number of projects. We address these model biases in many different ways by model evaluations and developments and by conducting simulation studies with perturbed physics to understand the nature of model error and biases. We also investigated new strategies in reducing model biases in climate model simulations. Dommenget (2016), for instance, investigated the role of mean state biases corrections by flux adjustments in an ensemble of a simple climate model with perturbed physics. The study found that regional climate sensitivity errors are primarily controlled by biases in the mean state caused by model errors (perturbed physics), whereas the direct effect of model errors (independent of mean state biases) is of minor importance (see Fig. 5). This result suggests that climate models can potentially be strongly improved in their simulation of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change by simply correcting the mean state biases without any improvement in the model physics.

ACCESS Modelling Hierarchy Many of the projects conducted in this research program use model simulations based on the the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) modelling hierarchy to understand the climate system. This modelling

Workshops The collaborations in this research program are organised and fostered by a number theme-based half-day workshops. The half-day workshops are usually along one of the main themes (e.g. ENSO or model errors) and they are used to discuss ongoing projects, present new results and discuss possible collaborations. We also started more regular short video conferences organised by Duncan Ackerley in which we present ongoing works and discuss future projects.

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RP Variablilty — Statement of Intent for 2016 Level

Intent

Analysis of SST re-emergence in the global oceans

Analysis of the ENSO future climate change projections and dynamics in the CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 database

Continue work on the dynamics of the Australian monsoon onset in CMIP-5 models

Continue work on the quantification of diabatic processes in the production of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies over the Southern Ocean and their role in and extra-tropical cyclogenesis. Extend the work to extra-tropical cyclogenesis in the CMIP-5 models

Development of elements of a consistent ACCESS N48 model hierarchy

Analysis of basin-wide Southern Ocean multidecadal mode of variability in the CMIP-5 database

Perturbed physics experiments with ACCESS lowresolution model to address mean state biases problems

Model simulations to estimate the climate sensitivity to surface temperature variations and biases

Dynamics of the large-scale hydrological cycle responses in climate change with the help of a simple globally resolved energy balance model

Modelling variability and trends in the SAM over the Southern Ocean affected by stratospheric ozone variations over Antarctica.

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2016, to be wrapped up in first half of 2018

Research showed that even without the influence of the oceans, the extraordinary natural variability in the atmosphere around Australia by itself could trigger long-term droughts...

Dr Andrea Taschetto’s outstanding year

t has been an extraordinary year for Dr Andrea Taschetto. First she was named as an Australian Research Council Future Fellow and then a few weeks later won the 2016 Dorothy Hill Award from the Australian Academy of Science. Dr Taschetto was recognised for her major contributions to the understanding of climate variability and in particular the El Niño Modoki and its impact on regional climate. She led the research that discovered the El Niño Modoki had very different impacts over Australia compared to traditional El Niños. We now know, as a direct result of her work, that these Modoki forms produce dry conditions over north and north-west Australia during autumn and a lack of rain over the eastern half of the continent. This has had a profound effect on seasonal forecasting and was of particular interest to the agricultural sector. It has also led to international researchers reframing the way they quantify regional climate impacts around the world.

Dr Taschetto’s work on variability also extended this year to the predictability of droughts. It has long been a hope that climate researchers could uncover the precursors that would warn us of long and intense droughts before they appeared. Many suspected ocean conditions would provide this advance warning. However, Dr Taschetto’s research showed that even without the influence of the oceans, the extraordinary natural variability in the atmosphere around Australia by itself could trigger longterm droughts similar to the most recent millennial drought experienced in the early 2000s. It is important research that suggests we may never be able to forecast these high-impact events. All of this builds on Dr Taschetto’s work assessing how well climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th and 5th Assessment Reports reproduced El Niño phenomenon. This work has had a significant impact on the way the climate community understands the systemic biases in the present generation of climate models. As a result of her research, Dr Taschetto is widely considered a leader in our understanding of regional climate dynamics and global modes of climate variability. Certainly we can expect more outstanding years as her research continues.

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MECHANISMS AND ATTRIBUTION OF PAST AND FUTURE OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGE

Highlights Four papers in Nature family journals and five in Geophysical Research Letters, along with multiple other publications in outstanding international journals Progress in understanding Antarctic sea ice distribution, Southern Ocean currents and the circulation changes that have led to rapid warming on the Tasmanian continental shelf Veronique Lago, Robert Johnson and Kate Snow completed PhDs Matthew England elected a Fellow of the AGU, Stephanie Downes was awarded the Tasmanian State Young Tall Poppy for 2016 and Andy Hogg received the Priestley Medal from AMOS Visits from Andrew Stewart (UCLA), Fabien Roquet (Stockholm University), Laure Zanna (University of Oxford), Stefan Rahmstorf (University of Postdam) and Oleg Saenko (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) Configured and optimised an eddy-resolving, global ocean sea ice model, forming partnerships with Australian Antarctic Division, BoM and CSIRO. Released animation of El Niño in partnership with NCI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaFjlZxM7S4

Team Chief Investigators

PhD Students

Associate Investigators

A/Prof Andrew Hogg (Lead, ANU) Prof Nathan Bindoff (UTAS) Dr Dietmar Dommenget (Monash University) Prof Matthew England (UNSW) A/Prof Peter Strutton (UTAS)

Witold Bagniewski (UNSW) Alice Barthel (UNSW) Bella Blanche (UTAS) Pearse Buchanan (UTAS) Christopher Bull (UNSW) Dipayan Choudhury (UNSW) Andrea Cranenburgh (UTAS) Ajitha Cyriac (UTAS) Fabio Boeira Dias (UTAS) Earl Duran (UNSW) Bethany Ellis (ANU) Angus Gibson (ANU) Willem Huiskamp (UNSW) Wilma Huneke (UTAS) Robert Johnson (UTAS) Veronique Lago (UTAS) Veronica (Yuehua) Li (UNSW) Nicola Maher (UNSW) Craig McConnochie (ANU) Mainak Mondal (ANU) Kaitlin Naughton (UNSW) Sonja Neske (Monash University) Ramkrushnbhai Patel (UTAS) Valeria Prando (UNSW) Ariaan Purich (UNSW) Serena Schroeter (UTAS) Kate Snow (ANU) Catherine Vreugdenhil (ANU) David Webb (UNSW) Luwei Yang (UTAS) Haifeng Zhang (UNSW Canberra)

Dr Nerilie Abram (ANU) Dr Jessica Benthuysen (CSIRO/UTAS) Dr Catia Motta Domingues (UTAS) Dr Stephanie Downes (UTAS) Prof Ross Griffiths (ANU) Dr Will Hobbs (UTAS) A/Prof Neil Holbrook (UTAS) Dr Shayne Keating (UNSW) Dr Andrew Kiss, (UNSW Canberra) Dr Angela Maharaj (UNSW) Dr Simon Marsland (CSIRO) Prof Trevor McDougall (UNSW) Dr Shayne McGregor (UNSW/Monash) A/Prof Katrin Meissner (UNSW) Dr Laurie Menviel (UNSW) Dr Maxim Nikurashin (UTAS) Dr Helen Phillips (UTAS) Dr Oleg Saenko, (CCCMA) Dr Agus Santoso (UNSW) Dr Alex Sen Gupta, (UNSW) Dr Kial Stewart (ANU) Prof Thomas Trull (UTAS) Dr Petteri Uotila Dr Erik van Sebille (UNSW) Dr Stephanie Waterman (U.BC, Canada) Dr Susan Wijffels (CSIRO) Dr Guy Williams (UTAS) Dr Jan Zika (UNSW)

Partner Investigators Dr Stephen Griffies (GFDL, USA) Dr Anthony Hirst (CSIRO) Dr Richard Matear (CSIRO) Dr Scott Power (BoM)

Centre Researchers Dr Julien Boucharel (UNSW) Dr Leela Frankcombe (UNSW) Dr Ryan Holmes (UNSW) Ms Veronique Lago (UTAS) Dr Joan Llort (UTAS) Dr Eric Oliver (UTAS) Dr Callum Shakespeare (ANU)

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Summary The Oceans research program undertook studies into a wide range of ocean-climate problems in 2016, including new research into the distribution of Antarctic sea ice, studies of the upwelling of deep water in the Southern Ocean and work on better understanding of rapid warming in the Tasman Sea. Our work involves the synthesis of highresolution cutting-edge ocean and climate models and idealised or low-order theoretical models, guided by the constraints of available observations. Sea ice in the Southern Ocean plays a key role in driving ocean currents around Antarctica, by controlling the distribution of dense saline waters (Bindoff and Hobbs, 2016). However, the changing patterns of Antarctic sea ice remains a conundrum for climate scientists. Over the last decade, while Arctic sea ice has declined, it has slightly expanded in the Antarctic region – until the latter half of 2016, when seasonal sea ice was the lowest on record. We have discovered that a strengthening of the Amundsen Sea Low from 1979-2013 largely explains the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice in the Ross Sea and decrease in the Bellingshausen Sea. While these changes are not generally seen in freely running climate model simulations, they are reproduced in simulations of two independent coupled climate models constrained by observed tropical variability. This leads to the conclusion that tropical variability, specifically decadal variations in the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributed to the observed strengthening of the Amundsen Sea Low and associated

pattern of Antarctic sea ice change (see Figure 1 and Purich et al. 2016). Our results highlight the importance of accounting for teleconnections from low to high latitudes. The ocean’s thermohaline (or overturning) circulation involves upwelling of deep, carbon-rich waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean. Southern Ocean upwelling is thought to be driven by strong westerly winds, implying that the intensification of Southern Ocean winds in recent decades may have enhanced the rate of upwelling. We have used a new framework to study the energetics of Southern Ocean upwelling (see Figure 2; Hogg et al. 2016). While increasing winds drag more deep water to the surface, this effect is offset by poleward shifts of the wind stress field, implying that future climate trajectories may not be associated with enhanced upwelling. Much of our work requires high-resolution models to simulate eddying processes in the ocean. We have developed a new scheme to understand the vertical resolution required in these eddy-resolving ocean models (Stewart et al., under review). We have also contributed to a unique interdisciplinary study, in which high-resolution ocean modelling of bottom currents are used to explain an extensive line of sediment deposits on the floor of the Southern Ocean extending back two to five million years (Dutkiewicz et al. 2016). The deposit is in an area of low surface productivity bounded by the Kerguelen Plateau to the east and the Macquarie Ridge to the west. The sediment locations identified may offer exceptionally valuable drilling targets for high-resolution climatic investigations of the Southern Ocean.

Figure 1: Trend in sea ice concentration (colours) and atmospheric sea level pressure (contours). The left panel shows observed Southern Ocean sea ice trends; on the right is a model result of sea ice concentration in ENSO years.

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Figure 2: Global distribution of surface Available Potential Energy in a global eddy-permitting ocean model.

We have also developed a numerical ocean model for the continental shelf off eastern Tasmania (Eastern Tasmania model; Oliver et al. 2016). This model led to the first shelfwide understanding of circulation variability off eastern Tasmania at relatively high resolution (approximately two kilometres horizontal), including insights into cross-shelf structure. The model provided a hindcast data set covering 1993-2014 which has been used to characterise the seasonal cycle of circulation, in particular the summertime dominance of the East Australian Current and the wintertime dominance of the Zeehan Current. This paper provides the foundation for targeted ongoing research investigating climate change and variability and its effects on the shelf circulation and impacts on ecology. In particular, the hindcast has been updated to the year 2015, to be updated each year, and ongoing work with this data includes (1) the characterisation of interannual variability and long-term trends in the confluence of the two boundary currents mentioned above and (2) the characterisation of historical marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania including their duration, intensity, spatial extent, depth, concurrent oceanic and atmospheric forcing conditions, and ecological impacts. In March-April 2016, a large UTAS contingent participated in an Investigator Research Vessel voyage to map eddies in the Southern Ocean, south of Tasmania. The team had great success mapping a cyclonic eddy, which was characterised by a cool core but low productivity, in contrast to other ocean regions. Initial indications are that the unusual eddy properties were governed mainly by the waters from which the eddy originated, and only slightly modified by the eddy circulation after its formation. An autonomous float from the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations Modeling (SOCCOM) program (http://soccom.princeton.edu/) was deployed in the eddy centre to monitor its physics and biogeochemistry beyond the ship occupation window. Two similar floats were deployed on the next Investigator voyage, north of the Ross Sea, to test current theories regarding the genesis of Southern Ocean seasonal blooms. In the months following the eddy voyage, Research Associate Dr Joan Llort has been synthesising data from all existing profiling floats in the Southern Ocean that carry oxygen sensors. Using well-defined criteria related to the vertical structure of oxygen, and in conjunction with model output from CSIRO, he has been identifying subduction events that inject oxygen into the mid-depths of the ocean. These results are revealing the importance of mesoscale features such as eddies for regulating the exchange of gases between the ocean

and atmosphere, as well as revealing specific areas of the Southern Ocean where this exchange is intensified. The circulation in the Southern Indian Ocean has been characterised as part of a long-term, international collaboration (Furue et al., under review). This work has led to a new characterisation of the vertical structure of the circulation along the west Australian coastline, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Volume transports calculated from CARS â&#x2026;&#x203A;-degree now quantify the annual mean and seasonal transport of the Leeuwin current (0-200m) and Leeuwin Undercurrent (200-900m), the zonal transports into and out of the Leeuwin and Undercurrent, and most importantly the very strong downwelling at the coast.

>60 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Ongoing work in this research program includes the interaction of currents with topography. PhD students Alice Barthel and Luwei Yang are working to understand how jets interact with seamounts, and how topography acts to damp eddy activity. This type of topographic interaction can generate internal waves which propagate energy vertically in the ocean; a similar process occurs in the near-surface regions where spontaneous generation of internal waves from fine-scale fronts play an important role in the oceanic energy balance (Shakespeare and Hogg, under review). These studies form the basis of a future investigation into the role that internal waves play in turbulent mixing and dissipation in the ocean.

RP Oceans — Statement of Intent for 2017 Level

Intent

Using eddy-resolving global ocean sea ice models to investigate the response of the Southern Ocean to changes in wind stress on the Antarctic coastal margin

Conduct a series of partially coupled experiments designed to investigate causality of different modes of climate variability

Regional submesoscale- and internal waveresolving ocean modelling to better understand the ocean energy budget

Use global ocean sea ice models with fully interactive biogeochemistry to investigate the interaction between light, nutrients and mixing for regulating primary productivity in the Southern Ocean [Links with CAWCR]

Attribution of ocean changes on global, basin and sub-basin scales

Work on developing a new hybrid coordinate for global ocean models. [Link to GFDL]

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2016, to be wrapped up in first half of 2018

Acacia’s most recent paper explored whether sea surface temperatures played a major role in the development of East coast Lows.

Acacia Pepler storms ahead with East Coast Low research East Coast Lows are an important weather phenomenon for the eastern states of Australia, not only because they can be extremely damaging but also because they play a major role in filling dams and therefore affect the water security of some of our major cities.

most damaging East Coast Lows that appeared close to the coast would become more frequent. This has significant implications for coastal infrastructure.

Acacia’s most recent paper explored whether sea surface temperatures played a major role in the development of East coast Lows. If this had been the case, then it would hD student Acacia have been very useful for Pepler has had an forecasting these events. impressive year. While her research revealed She was lead author on The most significant of that warmer sea surface three papers looking at the Acacia Pepler’s leadtemperatures led to a slight causes of East Coast Lows, author papers appeared increase in the intensity of concluded her PhD with the in Geophysical Research these events and the amount ARC Centre of Excellence Letters and looked at how of rainfall they brought, for Climate System Science, the incidence of East Coast atmospheric conditions still and led national media Lows may change with were the prime driver in their reporting explaining the global warming. It found that development. impact of the large and it was likely that we would damaging East Coast Low see a decrease overall in East Acacia’s expertise was widely called upon during that hit Sydney in June 2016. Coast Lows during winter, when they are most common. the major East Coast Low in 2016. She wrote an However, the strongest and

article for The Conversation entitled “The role of climate change in eastern Australia’s storms”, was quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald and most of the Fairfax network; and appeared on ABC News, SBS and New Scientist. She was the first researcher in the Centre of Excellence to feature in the video “explainer series” developed with Fairfax Media as part of an ongoing partnership in producing climate videos. It was her impressive work on camera that gave Fairfax the confidence to pursue the partnership. Acacia’s research coupled with a growing public profile means she will finish her PhD with her peers and national media recognizing her as a key expert in Australia’s East Coast Lows.

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COMPUTATIONAL MODELLING SUPPORT

Highlights CMIP-5 improvements to the official replica and continuing work on facilitating query of the NCI and remote collections CMIP-6 planning in collaboration with CSIRO, BoM and NCI Optimisation work on high-resolution ocean model (MOM5, 0.1°) with 50% gains in speed Publication in open access of two versions of the ACCESS-OM model by Nicholas Hannah Optimisation of CABLE with the new SLI scheme developed by Vanessa Haverd (CSIRO) The CMS team was involved in several training courses offered to the Centre’s researchers, including an ACCESS Users Training Course provided in collaboration with the BoM and UK Met Office New data sets publications and currently working on further publications.

CMIP-5

CMIP-6

As well as updating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP-5) with new data requests, data manager Dr Paola Petrelli has led work on curating the current collection, including managing duplicates, corrupted files, and ensuring correct version management. The availability of the CMIP-5 database has been enhanced for the research community as a consequence. In addition, a complete restructure of the CMIP-5 database has been undertaken as part of a long-term strategy to ensure continued availability. New functions and example scripts were added to the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science archive (ARCCSSive) repository such that a researcher can compare local and remote collections and automatically place a request for new files to be downloaded from overseas repositories. Other scripts have been developed to help perform searches for latest available versions or to identify all the models that have all the variables passed as constraint. An R script has been added to allow R users to access the database too.

Dr Petrelli has led the Centre’s planning for CMIP-6 in consultation with our collaborators and CMIP users in the Centre. Different committees and working groups have helped in coordinating collaboration across institutions and, to facilitate this, Dr Petrelli is part of the CMIP-6 Technical Committee, the Climate Data Set Committee and the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) Research Data Services (RDS) Technical Advisory Group. She is also chairing a regular weekly meeting with NCI, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO technical staff to discuss issues and progress related to the CMIP-5, CMIP6 and reanalysis data sets. Dr Petrelli also visited BoM in Melbourne to further discuss these subjects. In preparation for CMIP-6, Dr Petrelli is working on ensuring timely access to all CMIP data by Centre researchers. This involves extensive consultation with users in regards to prioritisation, something facilitated with email surveys, a poster at the ARCCSS annual workshop and direct questioning of current users. solving issues relating to post-processing and quality control of future Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) CMIP simulations.

>62 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

testing of available/planned services to facilitate access to the data. ensuring outstanding issues with CMIP-5, e.g., inconsistent versioning and lack of good quality checks, are taken into account in the planning of CMIP-6 both internationally and locally. The work on CMIP data has long-term strategic value as CMIP-6 emerges across the international community. However, most of the developments have immediate value, both within CMIP-5 and across many other data collections used in the Centre.

Model Updates Ocean Modelling Dr Aidan Heerdegen has improved the speed and stability of the high-resolution ocean model configurations (MOM5, 0.1 deg) in collaboration other ARCCSS and CSIRO colleagues. The model now runs some 50% faster, which improves the Centre’s use of NCI resources, improves the cost-benefit of simulations and, critically, ensures results are available far more quickly than otherwise possible, which leads to higher chances of being first to significant scientific discoveries. Through 2017 Dr Heerdegen hopes to increase the model speed further, doubling it from the original baseline. Dr Kial Stewart has been working on improved vertical grids for z-star models in order to ensure the same level of skill in the vertical grid as on the horizontal one. Dr Heerdegen has implemented Dr Stewart’s improved 75 vertical level scheme in the high-resolution (0.1 deg) Modular Ocean Model 5 (MOM5)–Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) model. This MOM5SIS-KDS model is now the current high-resolution model configuration and is being run in production mode. Through 2016, the research community in Australia established the Consortium for Ocean Sea Ice Modelling in Australia (COSIMA) to improve collaboration. Dr Heerdegen, Nicholas Hannah and Scott Wales are members of the COSIMA Technical Working Group. Nicholas Hannah has already published two new versions of both 1° and 0.25° resolutions of the ACCESS-Ocean Model (OM) model. This is the MOM5.1 ocean model, coupled to the Los Alamos National Laboratory’s CICE4.1 sea ice model and the MATM atmosphere model. A JRA-55 forced 0.25° ocean/ice model, ACCESS-OM2-025 is now in development for the consortium by Dr Heerdegen. Additionally, Nicholas Hannah has continued to manage the MOM5 repository, including the source code and model documentation. In particular, this year was marked by the publication of all previous MOM versions going back to the late 1980s. A final important model development was the identification of a limitation of the OASIS3-MCT coupler that limited part of the ACCESS model hierarchy at NCI. Specifically, the model could not be run for more than 25 years at a time, affecting research productivity. Dr Holger Wolff traced the issue to a limitation of OASIS3-MCT and modified the OASIS3-MCT library for allowing runs which calculate >25 years per submit. This has enabled an acceleration of research in the Centre’s Variability program.

Land Modelling Scott Wales has been assisting Dr Vanessa Haverd at CSIRO and Dr Mark Decker at UNSW with optimising the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange’s (CABLE) Soil-Litter-Isotopes (SLI) scheme. This is a work in progress, but has already produced a 20% improvement of the run time of CABLE with SLI enabled by re-factoring parts of the code. In addition, Ned Haughton has been using the Jenkins server set up by Computational Modelling Support teamto regularly test the CABLE model. The goal is to support the research priority of better benchmarks and testing of the CABLE model. The Centre is now close to the goal of automated testing of CABLE developments. Dr Claire Carouge has been working with Dr Bernard Pak (CSIRO) and Dr Martin De Kauwe (Macquarie University) in planning a complete reorganisation of the inputs and outputs for CABLE. The first phase of consultation with the CABLE community is now finished, with identified bottlenecks and issues to resolve. This is an area that should be resolved through 2017.

Atmosphere Modelling Scott Wales, as a member of the Unified Model Partnership’s Technical Advisory Group, has been involved in work on the Unified Model (UM) atmosphere model’s Nesting Suite in collaboration with the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research and the UK Meteorological Office. As a result of this work, the exact same configuration can be run at multiple sites, minimizing the need to manually port changes made at other institutions to the NCI supercomputer. This enables a faster access to the latest UM versions by the Australian community. Dr Martin Jucker benefited from this development to run high-resolution configurations of the latest version of the UM over Darwin. Scott Wales and Martin Dix (CSIRO) also helped Dr Andrea Dittus to configure a coupled UK Met Office ChemistryAerosol-ocean model. This coupled model consists of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science’s atmospheric chemistry configuration of the UM coupled to the MOM5 ocean model planned to be used in ACCESS 2.

New, Updated or Published Data Sets Several data sets managed by ARCCSS were added or updated during the year: ERAI

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis

NASA TRMM L3

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Level 3

MERRA2

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

JRA55

Japanese Reanalysis, by the Japanese Meteorological Agency

CMORPH

Climate Prediction Centre MORPHing technique

C20C

Climate of the 20th Century project

euroclim500

Project studying the European climate over the past 500 years

ostia

Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis

CMIP-5

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5

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Nicholas Hannah has been curating multi-century highresolution climate and ocean-only data sets. More work was done on Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Detection and Attribution project publication, and new simulations from Dr Andrew King are currently being processed for publication. Dr Petrelli also helped Dr Kane Stone to set up post-processing of ACCESS model outputs for publication with the Chemistry-Climate ModeI Initiative project Dr Petrelli has added several new NCI Geonetwork records, Research Data Australia and Australian National Data Service (ANDS) records and DOIs for data sets produced by the Centre’s researchers, as journals more frequently require publication of the data underlying a paper. She has also documented the process on the CMS wiki and added information on this to the data induction to make sure our researchers and students are prepared well in advance. Dr Petrelli has also supported the organisation and delivery of the Weather@Home project model simulations. New simulations are uploaded continuously to the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing’s Research Data Storage Infrastructure server. Using the Mediaflux software, an automated system to add experiment information to the files and reorganise them automatically as soon as they are uploaded to the server is now working in test mode. Next steps are finalising the workflow following feedback from the researchers and adding a Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) Data Server (TDS) to make the data publicly available. To discuss progress and issues around the Weather@Home project, Dr Petrelli visited the researchers involved at University of Melbourne as well as Arcitecta, the developers of Mediaflux. Also, Dr Petrelli attended the e-research conference in Melbourne and is participating in a monthly software citation meeting organised by ANDS. Both activities are important to keep up to date with publishing tools and data portals available to our researchers. NCI has a new data catalogue in addition to the Geonetwork catalogue. This catalogue was created following users’ feedback on the Geonetwork catalogue indicating it was not user friendly and very confusing at times. This new data catalogue, as well as information on all data services at NCI and how to use these, were presented during a new Data Intensive Workshop by NCI. Scott Wales, Dr Heerdegen and Dr Carouge attended this workshop in early November. Finally, Nicholas Hannah has started working on data analysis methods suitable for large data sets. This task is very important for the Centre as data sets produced and used by researchers are growing to a scale that is impossible to manage with traditional methods.

Training João Teizeria from the UK Met Office visited in March to run a training course on the new Rose user interface that will be used in the upcoming ACCESS 2 model. This training course was open to all personnel at CSIRO, BoM and ARCCSS. Scott Wales helped out with the organisation of this visit and presented a talk on making model configurations portable across institutions. Several training sessions have occurred at University of Tasmania in which Dr Petrelli actively participated. She delivered part of NeCTAR cloud training in May. assisted with a Software Carpentry workshop (Software Carpentry is a group that trains researchers in software development techniques and how to program in languages like Python and Bash). delivered -- in collaboration with Dr Wolff -- CMS inductions to the students as part of the Centre’s inductions. Dr Petrelli also delivered a specific induction centred on data. participates in running the regular weekly session of Data Science Hobart, where students and researchers can discuss data and analysis-related issues and tools. CMS team members have also given or participated in various training sessions around the Centre of Excellence. Dr Petrelli assisted with a CWSLab training session in Melbourne. Following feedback from a Basic Fortran Tutorial in 2015, Dr Wolff gave an Advanced Fortran Tutorial to the Centre’s students earlier this year. Dr Heerdegen gave a seminar about bash shell tips and tricks at ANU. Nicholas Hannah, Scott Wales and Dr Wolff ran a Software Carpentry workshop at the University of Melbourne. Also, Dr Wolff created a build environment for Fortran projects with a focus on version control using git and unit testing with pFUnit. He created two short videos to discuss its usage. Finally, the CMS team is also actively planning future training around the Centre of Excellence. Dr Wolff has supported the Graduate Director, Dr Melissa Hart, in better structuring the training offered to the Centre’s staff. The first steps in this direction were to poll the Centre staff via an online survey to assess training needs in a more structured way. plan a new knowledge-sharing monthly seminar session. These seminars would enable Centre’s staff to exchange knowledge around tools and techniques useful to their work. plan a reformatting of the student inductions. These will be open to all new staff at the Centre (as opposed to new students currently) and the induction on data and data management will be run separately. Finally, in 2017, Dr Petrelli will help organise an advanced high-performance computer training session, a “research bazaar” at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at UTAS and a UNSW data storage training session in Sydney.

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Level

Intent Upgrade NU-WRF to version 7 and beyond. Steps are:

fully implement inputs for CABLE update CABLE to latest trunk version rewrite the Python scripts to launch simulations to add the LDT step to the process

It even produced accurately the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on driving the region’s climate variations.

Submit WRF updates to NCAR for inclusion in default WRF. Useful to reduce time for WRF updates in future

Mitchell Black multitasks a research career participants to generate climate simulations.

Model updates at NCI: WRF 2

NU-WRF Model hierarchy Single Column Model Redesign CABLE I/O

Adding mask capability to current code for meteorology forcing

Optimise CABLE-SLI for use in ACCESS

Develop tools to automatically save model experiments set-up to enable better sharing and reproducibility of experiments

Further 0.1° MOMS.1 model development

Develop new ocean/ice ACCESS-OM2 model configurations to incorporate JRA-55 reanalysis

Improving quality and access of current and future CMIP collection by improving and promoting ARCCSSive and sharing information and solutions with the community (CMIP-Quality group) to individuate and fix issues with data on raijin

CMIP-6 - organising for CMIP-6 delivery to research community CMIP-6 - updating the post-processing workflow

Complete publishing of new data sets including C20C+ post-processing and finalising Weather@ Home re-organisation and delivery

Making data procedures and access more automatic. This includes data set updates, involvement in ocean science cloud project and helping with software publishing and catalogues. Facilitate access to BoM collections

Document outcomes on the CMS wiki for future reference

Provide training opportunities in tools such as Fortran, Python and visualisation tools that researchers can take with them beyond the Centre to enhance their future research

Improving workflow to publish data at NCI: from DMPs to DOIs. This should include training/ informing new and current researchers and students

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2016, to be wrapped up in first half of 2018

itchell Black only just finished his PhD in 2016 but already he has made a mark in the climate science modelling community and looks set to have a long career in climate model research.

Since it was launched, the home computers of volunteers have run many thousands of global and regional climate model simulations. These have generated 50Tb of data that represent 200,000 years of simulated climate.

Mitchell Black’s evaluation of the model found it represented the mean climate and climate variability across the Australia and New Zealand region very well. It even produced accurately the influence of El NiñoThis year he produced a Southern Oscillation on significant first-author paper driving the region’s climate in Geoscientific Model variations. Development that provided Analysis of the daily rainfall critical documentation and evaluation of the Weather@ and temperature distributions produced by the model Home Australia and New indicated the simulations Zealand (W@H ANZ) climate model. He produced of daily temperature and this paper while working on rainfall extremes were his PhD and assisting users consistent with what has been observed in the real to evaluate the model. world. It’s a job load that would The model was so effective have taxed the senior that four short papers researcher but Mitchell analysing extreme events in Black took it on gladly as 2014 using its simulations it allowed him to develop were published in the 2015 a deeper understanding Bulletin of the American of climate models and Meteorological Society provided the opportunity (BAMS) Explaining Extreme to work with leading international researchers in Events special issue, the climate modelling field. including one from New Zealand, whilst another three W@H ANZ is part of papers that used the model a global Weather@ were published in the BAMS Home project led from 2016 issue. Oxford University. It takes Mitchell Black is now eyeing an innovative approach to the next step in his career modelling, using the home and will be commencing a computers of volunteer postdoctoral fellowship with CSIRO DATA 61 in 2017.

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CMS Staff Profiles Dr Claire Carouge

Scott Wales

Team Leader

Computational Modelling Support

Dr Claire Carouge is the leader of the Computational Modelling Systems team at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. She coordinates the efforts of the team members distributed over the five nodes of the Centre.

Scott Wales supports the researchers at the ARC Centre of Excellence who work with the Unified Model (UM), the atmospheric component of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model. He helps researchers to understand, run and modify the model, and works with our Partner Organisations to make their model configurations usable on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) supercomputers. Scott Wales also works closely with leaders across the ACCESS community, providing technical advice and helping to develop and maintain the infrastructure needed to run the models at NCI such as the Accessdev and Subversion servers. He also works with our partners at the UK Meteorological Office on collaborative development across the entire UM partnership. Scott Wales has experience in a variety of different computational modelling techniques, including numerical atmospheric models, cosmological N-body simulations, and stochastic partial differential solvers. He has a Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Physics from the University of Queensland.

In parallel, Dr Carouge provides the modelling support at the Centre of Excellence for the atmospheric regional model Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) and the land surface model Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE). As such she has coupled CABLE to WRF via the integration of CABLE into the Land Information System (LIS). She has also developed new diagnostics in WRF required for simulations for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiments. Dr Carouge now maintains, keeps up to date and documents a stand-alone modified WRF model and the CABLE-LIS-WRF coupled model. She is also developing a proper suite of tests for CABLE in collaboration with the CABLE development team at CSIRO. Dr Carouge also supports researchers using and developing the CABLE and WRF models at the Centre of Excellence.

Dr Aidan Heerdegen Computational Modelling Support Dr Aidan Heerdegen is a computational scientist with a background in physical chemistry, but has also supported research in climate modelling. He has experience with statistical analysis of climate data, and health statistics database software. Dr Heerdegen has a BSc(Hons) in Physics and Chemistry from Massey University (NZ), and a PhD (ANU). His doctoral thesis was on Monte-Carlo modelling of diffuse X-ray scattering from disordered materials. He joined the ARC Centre of Excellence’s Computational Modelling Support team at ANU in 2014.

Dr Holger Wolff Computational Modelling Support Dr Holger Wolff has a background in physics. After graduating from the University of Hannover, Germany, he completed a PhD in Quantum-Atom Optics at Swinburne University in Melbourne, with a focus on micro-fabrication of atom chips for Bose-Einstein-Condensate Experiments. Following the PhD, Dr Wolff worked with CSIRO as a programmer for atmospheric modelling for three-anda-half years. He joined the ARC Centre of Excellence in November 2013.

Dr Paola Petrelli

Computational Modelling Support Collaborators

Computational Modelling Support

Nicholas Hannah

Dr Paola Petrelli is the data manager of the ARC Centre of Excellence. Before joining the Centre she managed oceanographic and climate data sets for the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing, acquiring extensive experience in web services and software used by the earth sciences research community. She received a PhD from the University of Siena (Italy) in 2005. Dr Petrelli sets the Centre strategy and provides advice on data management practices. She leads the data collaborations with our Partner Organisations and the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) to manage shared data resources. Dr Petrelli represents the Centre of Excellence on technical committees – for climate data and for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6. An important part of her role is to publish Centre data and metadata on public repositories such as the NCI data services, ESGF and ANDS Research Data Australia (RDA).

Ocean-ACCESS Model Coupling Project Nicholas Hannah works at the intersection of numerical modelling, high-performance computing and software engineering. At the ARC Centre of Excellence he works on computational aspects of climate model development. Nicholas Hannah is especially interested in ways to create open and reproducible science. He holds degrees in computer science and mathematics.

>66 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

The Graduate Program THE GRADUATE PROGRAM

Highlights A successful winter school in tropical meteorology held at the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University An advanced Fortran workshop held via our videoconferencing system A Software carpentry and two Intro-to-NCI workshops 27 students completed their degrees in 2016, with 15 students submitting their PhD theses. Graduate destinations for our graduated PhD students have included: Cambridge University, University of Edinburgh and National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting internationally, and CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology in Australia Two successful scientific paper writing workshops Our students were authors on 55 journal articles this year — 39 as first authors, and four in Nature family publications including a first-author paper in Nature Communications 18 undergraduate students were introduced to climate science research via our summer scholarship initiative. Summer students were supervised by our ECRs, giving them vital supervisory experience.

2016 Overview Honours and graduate student numbers have been maintained. In 2016 we had 11 honours students and 100 graduate students affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS). All have been actively involved in our graduate activities. We had 28 students submit this year (17 PhD, two MSc and nine honours) and they have been moving on to positions in top institutions worldwide. This includes Kate Snow, a PhD student at ANU moving on to a postdoctoral position at University of Edinburgh. In collaboration with our Computational Modelling Support team, technical training opportunities this year included: an advanced Fortran training workshop, which was delivered remotely via our videoconferencing system; a Software Carpentry workshop; two “introduction-to” workshops delivered by our Partner Organisation, the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI); and data induction and management workshops.

Our students and early career researchers continue to be supported in their writing via our scientific paper writing workshops, the success of which can be seen through their success in publishing their research, with 55 papers published by Centre of Excellence students this year (38 as first author). Included in this impressive publication list was a first-author paper in Nature Communications by Ariaan Purich, PhD student. Centre early career researcher Dr Sophie Lewis delivered three virtual professionaldevelopment seminars on finding your place within the university system. The breadth of our graduate program initiatives for 2016 can be seen in our calendar schedule.

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December

November

October

September

August

July

June

May

April

March

February

January Researcher Development New student induction Winter School Paper writing workshop ARCCSS Workshop Professional Development ECR Day Technical Training Data Management Fortran tutorial ACCESS User Training Course CWSLab training Intro to NCI Software Carpentry Virtual Seminars Stefan Rahmstorf- The public climate debate Campbell Watson- career pathways at IBM Sophie Lewis- Know your place: who, what, where?

Winter School Our winter schools are the cornerstone of our graduate program and are open to all climate science honours and graduate students regardless of ARCCSS affiliation. The theme and location of the winter school changes every year; in 2016, we were at the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University investigating tropical meteorology. We welcomed 59 participants from our ARCCSS node universities, CSIRO, Federation University, Murdoch University and the University of Auckland. This year we were pleased to offer winter school places to students and postdoctoral researchers from the Asia Pacific. We received 45 applications for five places and were pleased to welcome students from Vietnam National University, the National University of Malaysia, the University of the Philippines, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the Centre for Climate Research Singapore. In addition to ARCCSS researchers our lecturers included: Associate Professor Liz Ritchie from UNSW Canberra, who covered tropical cyclones; and Bureau of Meteorology scientists Dr Chris Lucas, Dr Andrew Marshall and Jo Brown, covering zonal mean circulation, monsoons and the Madden-Julian-Oscillation. The winter school consisted of both lectures and labs, in addition to participants working in groups on mini-projects which involved working on a research project designed and mentored by an ARCCSS researcher. The week was rounded out by social events ranging from icebreaker games, screening of a disaster movie and a tour of the impressive Monash Earth Sciences Garden.

Undergraduate Summer Scholarships in Climate System Science Our Undergraduate Summer Scholarships in Climate System Science are highly competitive scholarships intended to provide undergraduate students from Australian universities an introduction to cutting-edge climate science research at one of our five universities, or our national Partner Organisations -- CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology and Department of the Environment. This is the fifth year we have offered these scholarships and over that time we have had 59 students join us for the summer. Summer students are supervised by our early career researchers, giving them vital supervisory experience. This initiative has been the most successful tool by far for attracting future domestic graduate students, with 17 of our current graduate students coming to us via the summer scholarship path.

Travel Many of our students had the opportunity during 2016 to spend significant amounts of time embedded in international research institutes, including many of our international Partner Organisations, or to attend Northern Hemisphere summer schools.

2016 trips Total: 151 International: 30 Domestic: 121 Conferences: 94

>68 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Node visits: 25

Graduate Program — Statement of Intent for 2017

Australian Partner Organisation visits: 3 International Partner Organisation visits: 3

Level* Intent

International non-Partner Organisation visits: 7 Our students are also actively involved in cross-node collaborations and often spend time visiting nodes other than their home institution, or talking to researchers and supervisors at other nodes via videoconferencing.

Prizes Our students were extremely successful in winning both national and international prizes this year. Pearse Buchanan was awarded a Fullbright Scholarship to undertake further research in the United States, specifically Princeton University, for the 2017-2018 round. Tim Cowan won the AMOS Uwe Radok Award. Jennifer Wurtzel got the AQUA student travel prize for INQUA attendance and ANU RSES DA Brown Award for international travel. Mathew Lipson received the 2015 Climate Change Research Centre Best Student Presentation Award.

Run a student-focused winter school with a focus on the science of climate change

Implement advanced climate-science-focused software training opportunities (in collaboration with the CMS team)

Continuation of a Centre-wide undergraduate summer scholarship program, including embedding of students into Partner Organisations

Support leadership training opportunities for ECRs, and offer in-Centre opportunities for ECRs to lead projects and initiatives

Expand the library of virtual resources available via the Centre’s website

Expansion of the Centre’s virtual seminar series, covering both science and research skills

Formalise the training needs analysis available for all incoming students

Develop a formal mentoring program.

*Level 1 = to be achieved in 2017. Level 2 = substantial progress in 2017. Level 3 = progress towards in 2017

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 69 <

Congratulations Graduates!

>70 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Selected Student Profiles Natasha Ballis

What opportunities has the Centre of Excellence offered you?

Degree: PhD

I attended this year’s winter school on tropical meteorology. It was a great opportunity to broaden my knowledge beyond my field of research, and to meet others from the Centre of Excellence.

Year: 1st year Institution: U.Melb Supervisor: Dr Murray Peel (U.Melb), A/Prof Rory Nathan (U.Melb), Dr Benjamin Henley (U.Melb) and Prof David Karoly (U.Melb)

What are your hopes/plans for after you graduate? I endeavour to continue bridging science and engineering, academia and industry.

Who in ARCCSS are you working with? Two of my PhD supervisors are ARCCSS investigators: Prof David Karoly (Chief Investigator) and Dr Ben Henley (Associate Investigator).

Tell us a little about your background, how did you get here? Upon being awarded degrees in engineering (civil) and science (atmosphere and ocean sciences) from the University of Melbourne, I was employed as an engineering consultant in the water industry. In this role, I undertook the analysis, modelling, planning and design of water supply systems for a number of Victorian and interstate water authorities and undertook a secondment at a water authority in regional Victoria. Keen to incorporate my science background with my engineering experience in the water sector, and also keen to balance industry experience with academic research, I’ve undertaken a PhD candidature spanning both fields and with direct application to industry.

Tell us a little about your project. My PhD research spans the University of Melbourne’s Department of Infrastructure Engineering and School of Earth Sciences, and forms part of an Australian Research Council linkage project, the Victorian Drought Risk Inference Project, between the University of Melbourne, Monash University, Melbourne Water, The Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and the Bureau of Meteorology. I intend to combine observed hydrologic records with paleoclimate archives to: improve our understanding of hydrologic variability in Victoria; build better-informed stochastic models for water supply systems; and more reliably assess the risk of severe drought and its associated risk to water supply systems.

Pearse Buchanan Degree: PhD Year: 3rd year Institution: UTAS Supervisor: Dr Richard Matear (CSIRO) and Prof Nathan Bindoff (UTAS)

Who in ARCCSS are you working with? Dr Richard Matear (CSIRO) and Prof Nathan Bindoff (UTAS)

Tell us a little about your background, how did you get here? Some my favourite childhood memories are snorkelling among the warm temperate reefs of Western Australia. These experiences nurtured my interest in the ocean, and after taking an oceanography course during my undergraduate studies, I was completely hooked. So I concentrated on biological oceanography, completing both a research project and an honours in the field, with two amazing supervisors. But I wanted to move past regional studies towards global patterns, as I enjoyed asking big questions about the climate. This led naturally to an interest in global biogeochemical cycles, which involve all pieces of the oceanography puzzle: physics, geochemistry, and biochemistry.

Tell us a little about your project. My research explores the complex relationship between oceanic biogeochemical cycles and the climate system. That is, how do ocean biogeochemical properties, such as the carbon and oxygen cycles, change in response to climate, and in turn how do these changes affect the climate? We have found that fundamental changes in ocean biogeochemistry are necessary to explain past changes in the climate. Now we seek to quantify how variations in the oxygen and nitrogen cycles have influenced climate change in the past.

What opportunities has the Centre of Excellence offered you? Climate modelling is terribly technical. The Centre of Excellence has supported my learning of numerous programming languages and has provided me with the opportunity to attend workshops.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 71 <

What are your hopes/plans for after you graduate? I hope to continue research as a postdoctoral scientist, working to answer big questions about the interaction between global biogeochemical cycles and the climate system so that our predictions of future climate evolution are more confident.

Sonya Fiddes Degree: PhD Year: 2nd year Institution: U.Melb

What opportunities has the Centre of Excellence offered you? Although I have only recently become officially affiliated with the Centre (early this year), from my masterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree onwards the Centre has been very welcoming and supportive of students and their involvement! The events, in particular the Introduction to NCI workshop, winter schools and paper writing workshops have already been hugely beneficial to me.

What are your hopes/plans for after you graduate? Considering I have only just started my PhD, I have not put too much thought into what I might do after. A lot can happen in three years, so I think I will just keep an open mind and see where it takes me!

Supervisor: Dr Robyn Schofield (U.Melb) and A/Prof Todd lane (U.Melb)

Who in the Centre of Excellence are you working with? My supervisors at the ARCCSS are Robyn Schofield and Todd Lane, with a third, Matt Woodhouse, at CSIRO, Aspendale.

Tell us a little about your background; how did you get here? I completed a Master of Science at the University of Melbourne in 2013, where my thesis looked at Alpine Australian wintertime rainfall and snowfall trends. This set me up well to do an internship at the Bureau of Meteorology in 2014, where I was working on Victorian rainfall and streamflow projections under the Victorian Climate Initiative (VicCI). Over the rest of 2014-2015 I worked as a research assistant at the University of Melbourne, where I focused on synoptic scale analysis of a range of air pollution events in New Zealand. At the end of 2015 I returned to BoM, again with the VicCI project before starting my PhD at the end of March 2016.

Tell us about your project. I am using climate models, complemented with some fieldwork (see photo of recent voyage upon the research vessel Investigator), to try to determine if the Great Barrier Reef has some impact on the local climate, specifically rainfall, cloud formation and surface temperatures, via aerosol formation. Hopefully by the end of it I will have the tools to answer the question: If the reef disappears, will we see a change in climate over Queensland? >72 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Angus Gibson

to show us exactly where the current, commonly used vertical coordinates in ocean models are insufficient. These diagnostics will inform the development of a hybrid coordinate.

Degree: PhD Year: 3rd year

What opportunities has the Centre of Excellence offered you?

Institution: ANU Supervisor: A/Prof Andy Hogg, Dr Andrew Kiss (UNSW ADFA) and Callum Shakespeare (ANU)

Who in ARCCSS are you working with? I’m working mainly with Andy Hogg (ANU), but I also work with Andrew Kiss (UNSW in Canberra) and Callum Shakespeare (ANU).

Tell us a little about your background, how did you get here? I completed my undergraduate Bachelor of Computational Science with a physics major at ANU. This gave me a mixture of computer science, mathematics and physics skills that I wanted to apply in my honours project. I took a project with Andy that involved developing a computational model to understand a physical problem.

Tell us a little about your project. My project involves the MOM6 ocean model, a flexible model that can be used for idealised, regional or even global studies. I’m working on ways to make better use of available resolution through “hybrid” vertical coordinates. Part of this involves developing diagnostics for the models

I’ve attended a couple of winter schools, which are a fantastic opportunity to meet other students in the Centre of Excellence and learn about things I might not normally encounter in my regular research. There have been ECRspecific training days, to learn about communication and the options available early in my career as a researcher. Finally, I’ve been able to interact with many people from the other nodes in the Centre through research workshops.

What are your hopes/plans for after you graduate? I’d like to continue combining more traditional computer science and numerical methods with physics and mathematics. Whether I’ll be continuing to do this in an academic environment or out in the widerworld is for the future to decide, but I’m excited to see what’s ahead of me! Figure 1: A snapshot of the horizontal velocity of a dense flow down a slope in a stratified ambient fluid, in an isopycnal configuration of MOM6. This flow is difficult to represent in many vertical coordinates, as the dense fluid mixes too strongly with the surrounding ambient fluid, slowing down the flow and sometimes preventing it from travelling all the way down the slope. The isopycnal vertical coordinate is an example of an ideal zero-mixing scenario, and on its own it is often unsuitable for global ocean modelling. However, its advantages are incorporated in some hybrid coordinates

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 73 <

MEDIA AND COMMUNICATIONS

Highlights 508 stories placed in media 21 articles from Centre authors in The Conversation Our Twitter account continues to grow – to 1533 followers, up from 1344 inn 2015 Our Facebook page has 811 followers, up from 557 in the previous year An “Ask A Climate Scientist” Facebook page has been established and now has 1397 followers Our Centre Newsletter has increased its subscribers to 267, up from 223 in 2015? Our website had 86,699 hits and 38,433 unique visits in 2016.

Our media impact has continued to grow though 2016. A video partnership with Fairfax Media led to the creation of “explainer” videos being developed for Fairfax websites featuring researchers the Australian Research Council Media and Communications Mediafrom and Communications CentreHighlights of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS). Highlights These video explainers were incredibly well watched – by more Media than 200,000 people – and more than 80% of Fairfax and Communications Media and Communications subscribers Highlights watched Highlightsthe videos through to the end.       

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1 Click on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heatClick on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heatits-2016-a-year-of-weather-extremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html its-2016-a-year-of-weather-extremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html 2 Click on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-national-news/how-doClick on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-national-news/how-dothunderstorms-work-20161030-4mjfs.html thunderstorms-work-20161030-4mjfs.html 3 3 Click on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/2017-to-be-third-hottestClick on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/2017-to-be-third-hottestyear-on-record-scientists-say-20161220-gtfec6.html year-on-record-scientists-say-20161220-gtfec6.html 4 4 Click on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/turning-up-the-heat-toClick on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/turning-up-the-heat-topush-many-australian-plants-to-the-brink-new-study-finds-20160912-greeuo.html push-many-australian-plants-to-the-brink-new-study-finds-20160912-greeuo.html 1 1 Click on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heatClick on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heatits-2016-a-year-of-weather-extremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html its-2016-a-year-of-weather-extremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html 2 2 Click on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-national-news/how-doClick on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-national-news/how-dothunderstorms-work-20161030-4mjfs.html thunderstorms-work-20161030-4mjfs.html 3 3 Click on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/2017-to-be-third-hottestClick on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/2017-to-be-third-hottestyear-on-record-scientists-say-20161220-gtfec6.html year-on-record-scientists-say-20161220-gtfec6.html 4 4 Click on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/turning-up-the-heat-toClick on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/turning-up-the-heat-topush-many-australian-plants-to-the-brink-new-study-finds-20160912-greeuo.html push-many-australian-plants-to-the-brink-new-study-finds-20160912-greeuo.html 2

Building on previous years, Centre of Excellence researchers appeared in many international media outlets, with multiple stories in The Washington Post, USA Today, The Times, The Independent (UK), the South China Morning Post, the New York Times and a host of other major international media outlets. Centre researchers played an important role in the public discussion around the job cuts at CSIRO, which have had a significant impact on the climate science community here and overseas. Our Media and Communications Manager, Alvin Stone, arranged the press conference at the annual Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) annual conference about the changes at CSIRO, which was widely reported here and overseas. Our Media and Communications Manager has been very active in outreach this year. He presented media communication workshops for various Centres of Excellence, including the Centre of Excellence for the Dynamics of Language, the Centre of Excellence for Plant Energy Biology and the Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers. Alvin Stone was also a guest panel convener at the annual Public Relations Institute of Australia, which for the first time looked at introducing science communication and communicators as a regular feature of the institute’s work.

Footnotes 1

Click on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heat-its-2016-a-year-of-weatherextremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html

Click on image, or go to http://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-national-news/how-do-thunderstorms-work-20161030-4mjfs. html

Click on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/2017-to-be-third-hottest-year-on-record-scientists-say20161220-gtfec6.html

Click on image or go to http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/turning-up-the-heat-to-push-many-australian-plants-tothe-brink-new-study-finds-20160912-greeuo.html

>74 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

2016 Overview

results rapidly entered into the public discussion around the future of the reef, both in Australia and overseas.

The past year was one of the more unusual years for media communications at ARCCSS. We had a pronounced lull in media activity during the middle of the year, which corresponded with both the progress of the application for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and an extended Federal election period. Both had an impact on media and website hits.

In January, Dr Markus Donat and Professor Andy Pitman were part of an international collaboration with our Partner Organisations that produced a Nature paper that looked at how a 2°Celsius rise in global temperatures could lead to much higher temperature rises – some as high as 6°Celsius at regional levels. This received considerable media attention here and overseas. Dr Donat was also lead author on a paper in March that, for the first time, showed that rainfall would increase globally with climate change, particularly in arid areas. Prior to this, the general understanding was that wet areas would get wetter and dry areas would get drier. Over land this did not hold true and this was reported widely in our national media because of its importance to Australia.

At the same time there were significant policy changes around climate science in Australia that manifested as job cuts and a change of research focus at CSIRO – potentially adversely affecting a prime source of climate science expertise. These events figured largely in the early part of the year and Centre researchers were regularly called on to speak about these cuts. A range of internal discussions allowed the Centre and its researchers to carefully navigate the politics surrounding these changes. The announcement of the CSIRO job cuts in early February also corresponded closely with the annual AMOS conference, which is Australia’s largest gathering for climate researchers. Our Media and Communications Manager organized a press conference and provided advice to speakers late at night on the day before the conference began. In one 14-hour period, starting at 10pm Sunday night, media notices were sent out, a press conference was arranged and the speakers were advised on how to deliver their talking points. The conference went on to be one of the major news stories for that week and repeatedly featured throughout the period in which this was discussed. The Centre also delivered some excellent public engagement focused on its research. A partnership with Fairfax Media produced a range of videos viewed by about 200,000 visitors to the Fairfax website. The first video produced featured PhD student Acacia Pepler explaining how East Coast Lows formed and the impacts they had on infrastructure and our water sources. This was developed in anticipation of major events later in the season and the video was completed a few weeks before Sydney had its first East Coast Low of the year. Consequently, the video featured prominently at the top of stories about the weather system. In June, a far more damaging East Coast Low struck the coast. The video reappeared and, with Acacia Pepler’s expertise being recognised, she was called on to do a number of interviews as well. Four additional videos were produced and have featured on Fairfax websites – one on thunderstorms, one on global warming and two more on heatwaves. Other videos that have been shot but are yet to be edited by the Fairfax Media team include the topics El Niño, Urban Heat Island effect and bushfire weather. Our strong relationship with The Conversation also continues, with 21 articles from Centre authors – including invitations from the editors to contribute specific pieces. Dr Andrew King, for example, authored 10 articles for The Conversation in 2016 and is now established as a significant and effective communicator on climate system science. In March, his paper that showed human-caused climate change was detectable in extreme heat records as early as the 1930s. The story ran nationally and internationally over a period of weeks. A highlight of Dr King’s year in terms of media was his rapid-response attribution study looking at the role of climate change in the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef. His

In August, Dr Nerilie Abram and Dr Helen McGregor produced a paper that showed that human-caused climate change was detectable as far back as the 1830s — the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The media reporting on this paper included major media organisations across the Americas, Asia, Europe, Africa and Pacific regions. Dr Sophie Lewis had a paper with a similar media reach when she defined exactly what the phrase “new normal” means and then showed that new-normal states could appear as early as the mid-2020s.

Online Presence In 2016, the ARCCSS web site received 86,699 hits and 38,433 unique visits. The visitors to our website this year have spent more time on the website and looked at more pages. This is likely the result of some new website strategies. This year we introduced Research Briefs; short, easily understood summaries of every piece of research that we put out. The intention of this approach was to ensure that our media unit did not miss any research that could have been of interest, and to give researchers experience in writing summaries that the public could understand. However, it had an added bonus. It became apparent that some important pieces of research from the scientific community, while not media-friendly to the public, still attracted attention from other climate researchers when they were tweeted out through social media. Two very important examples of this came from our chief investigators. Professor Andy Hogg was a co-author on the paper, Eddy cancellation at the Ekman Cell in subtropical gyres. While this was not something that would light up headlines in major media outlets, it was a game-changing piece of research for those working in oceanography. It produced a very strong response on Twitter when it was posted. Likewise, a new pan evaporation scheme by Professor Michael Roderick and his team turned out to be extremely important for climate models, and again produced a very strong response on Twitter among his scientific peers. The research briefs have proved to be quite important for disseminating our work and will continue to be an important part of our website. Our associated websites continue to attract visitors. Adrift attracted 70,333 views and 37,053 unique visitors. The average duration spent on this website has increased by 50%. The sister site, Plastinography, which was designed as an outreach tool for schools, has performed exceptionally well. It has doubled its page views to 112,720 and increased unique viewers to 23,150. By every metric it has improved over the past year. The Scorcher website has been used as

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 75 <

the basis of a second explainer video by Fairfax Media and continues to bring in the casual user looking at heatwaves as they develop -- and to be an outreach tool for schools. Some technical difficulties linked to the end of federal funding via National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources late in the year means that we are unable to provide specific statistics for its performance. Our social media accounts continue to grow, with Twitter expanding to 1533 followers; the Centre Facebook page is up to 811 followers and our Ask a Climate Scientist page now has 1397 followers.

Media plans for 2017 A special project team has been set up within Fairfax Media to develop a new range of explainers in the form of articles and videos. The Centre has been asked to provide a number of these explainers and this is likely to be a major project in 2017. Another project in development is an online book that brings together the evidence for human-caused global warming. The book is essentially a simple compilation of

important graphs and figures about climate, with extended captions written for ease of understanding by the public. As an annually updatable document it creates opportunity for regular media and also becomes a great handbook for schools, journalists and those who need easily accessible climate data. We will also be developing additional communications workshops for our staff. Of particular interest will be the development of a workshop on poster design for conferences. It has become apparent after a significant search that there are no formal design guidelines or understanding of how design works for academics in general. This new workshop aims to teach researchers and students the fundamentals of design so they can use these to produce exceptional conference posters that target their peers. More generally, we will be looking at ways to boost our social networks and to engage specific researchers and students to contribute to these networks. We will also continue to develop new media spokespeople from the ranks of our early career researchers.

>76 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Publications Book Chapters Dean, A., D. Green, and P. Nunn (2016), The Impacts of Climate Finance on an Atoll Nation, in Island Geographies, edited by Stratford E (Routledge: US). Green, D. (2016), Is it Too Late to Do Something About Climate Change in the Torres Strait?, in Anthropology and Climate Change, edited by Crate & Nuttall (Routledge: UK). Green, D., M. Sullivan, and K. Nolan (2016), Environmental Injustice in ResourceRich Aboriginal Australia, in Handbook of Environmental Justice, edited by W. and C. (Routledge:US) Holifield. Lane, T. (2016), Processes Underlying NearCloud Turbulence, in Aviation Turbulence: Processes, Detection, Prediction, edited by R. Sharman and T. Lane, pp. 317–333, Springer International Publishing. Sharman, R., and T. Lane (Eds.) (2016), Aviation Turbulence: Processes, Detection, Prediction, Springer International Publishing.

Journal Articles Abellan, E., and S. McGregor (2016), The role of the southward wind shift in both the seasonal synchronization and duration of ENSO events, Climate Dynamics, 47(1), 509–527, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2853-1.

Ashcroft, L., J. Gergis, and D. J. Karoly (2016), Long-term stationarity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia, Climate Dynamics, 46(9), 2991– 3006, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2746-3, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2746-3. Azorin-Molina, C., S. M. Vicente-Serrano, T. R. McVicar, J. Revuelto, S. Jerez, and J.I. López-Moreno (2016a), Assessing the impact of measurement time interval when calculating wind speed means and trends under the stilling phenomenon, International Journal of Climatology, 37(1), 480-492, doi:10.1002/joc.4720. Azorin-Molina, C., S. M. Vicente-Serrano, A. Sanchez-Lorenzo, T. R. McVicar, E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Revuelto, A. El Kenawy, N. Martín-Hernández, and M. TomasBurguera (2016b), Atmospheric evaporative demand observations, estimates and driving factors in Spain (1961–2011), Journal of Hydrology, 523, 262–277, doi:10.1016/j. jhydrol.2015.01.046. Azorin-Molina, C., J.-A. Guijarro, T. R. McVicar, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, D. L. Chen, S. Jerez, and F. Espirito-Santo (2016c), Trends of daily peak wind gusts in Spain and Portugal, 1961-2014, Journal of Geophysical Research, 121, 1059–1078, doi:10.1002/2015JD024485. Beck, H. E., A. I. J. M. van Dijk, A. de Roo, D. G. Miralles, T. R. McVicar, J. Schellekens, and L. A. Bruijnzeel (2016), Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters, Water Resources Research, 52(5), 3599–3622, doi:10.1002/2015WR018247.

Abram, N. J., H. V. McGregor, J. E. Tierney, M. N. Evans, N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman, and the PAGES 2k Consortium (2016), Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents, Nature, 536(7617), 411–418, doi:10.1038/nature19082.

Berg, A., K. Findell, B. Lintner, A. Giannini, S. I. Seneviratne, B. van den Hurk, R. Lorenz, A. Pitman, S. Hagemann, A. Meier, F. Cheruy, A. Ducharne, S. Malyshev, and P. C. D. Milly (2016), Land-atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming, Nature Climate Change, 6(9), 869–874, doi:10.1038/nclimate3029.

Ackerley, D., and D. Dommenget (2016), Atmosphere-only GCM simulations with prescribed land surface temperatures, Geoscientific Model Development Discussion 2016, 1–32, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-6.

Bergemann, M., and C. Jakob (2016), How important is tropospheric humidity for coastal rainfall in the tropics?, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(11), 5860–5868, doi:10.1002/2016GL069255.

Alexander, L. V. (2016), Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond, Weather and Climate Extremes, 11, 4–16, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007.

Berry, G. J., and M. J. Reeder (2016), The dynamics of Australian monsoon bursts, Journal of Atmospheric Science, 73, 55–69, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0071.1.

Aminzadeh, M., M. L. Roderick, and D. Or (2016), A generalized complementary relationship between actual and potential evaporation defined by a reference surface temperature, Water Resources Research, 52(1), 385–406, doi:10.1002/2015WR017969. Andrys, J., T. J. Lyons, and J. Kala (2016), Evaluation of a WRF ensemble using GCM boundary conditions to quantify mean and extreme climate for the southwest of Western Australia (1970–1999), International Journal of Climatology, 36(13), 4406–4424, doi:10.1002/joc.4641. Angélil, O., S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L. V. Alexander, D. Stone, M. G. Donat, M. Wehner, H. Shiogama, A. Ciavarella, and N. Christidis (2016), Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products, Weather and Climate Extremes, 13, 35–43, doi:10.1016/j. wace.2016.07.001. Argueso, D., A. Di Luca, and J. P. Evans (2016), Precipitation over urban areas in the western Maritime Continent using a convectionpermitting model, Climate Dynamics, 47(3), 1143–1159, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2893-6. Argüeso, D., A. Di Luca, S. E. PerkinsKirkpatrick, and J. P. Evans (2016), Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(14), 7653–7660, doi:10.1002/2016GL069408.

Birch, C. E., S. Webster, S. C. Peatman, D. J. Parker, A. J. Matthews, Y. Li, and M. E. E. Hassim (2016), Scale interactions between the MJO and the Western Maritime Continent, Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2471– 2492, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0557.1. Black, M., and D. J. Karoly (2016), Southern Australia’s warmest October on record: the role of ENSO and climate change, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (97), S118–S121, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0124.1. Black, M. T., D. J. Karoly, S. M. Rosier, S. M. Dean, A. D. King, N. R. Massey, S. N. Sparrow, A. Bowery, D. Wallom, R. G. Jones, F. E. L. Otto, and M. R. Allen (2016), The weather@ home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand, Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3161–3176, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3161-2016. Blunden, J., and D. S. Arndt (2016), State of the Climate in 2015, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), Si-S275, doi:10.1175/2016BAMSStateoftheClimate.1. Boschat, G., I. Simmonds, A. Purich, T. Cowan, and A. B. Pezza (2016), On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave – SST associations, Scientific Reports, 6, 29599, doi:10.1038/srep29599. Boucharel, J., F.-F. Jin, I. I. Lin, H.-C. Huang, and M. H. England (2016a), Different controls of tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific for two types of El Niño, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1944– 8007, doi:10.1002/2016GL067728.

Boucharel, J., F.-F. Jin, M. H. England, B. Dewitte, I. I. Lin, H.-C. Huang, and M. A. Balmaseda (2016b), Influence of oceanic intraseasonal Kelvin Waves on eastern Pacific hurricane activity, Journal of Climate, 29(22), 7941–7955, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-16-0112.1. Boucharel, J., F.-F. Jin, M. H. England, and I. I. Lin (2016), Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(21), 2016GL070847, doi:10.1002/2016GL070847. Boyer, T., C. M. Domingues, S. A. Good, G. C. Johnson, J. M. Lyman, M. Ishii, V. Gouretski, J. K. Willis, J. Antonov, S. Wijffels, J. A. Church, R. Cowley, and N. L. Bindoff (2016), Sensitivity of global upper-ocean heat content estimates to mapping methods, XBT bias corrections, and baseline climatologies, Journal of Climate, 29(13), 4817–4842, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0801.1. Buchanan, P. J., R. J. Matear, A. Lenton, S. J. Phipps, Z. Chase, and D. M. Etheridge (2016), The simulated climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and insights into the global marine carbon cycle, Climate of the Past, 12(12), 2271–2295, doi:10.5194/cp-12-22712016. Bull, C., and E. van Sebille (2016), Sources, fate, and pathways of Leeuwin Current water in the Indian Ocean and Great Australian Bight: A Lagrangian study in an eddy-resolving ocean model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(3), 1626– 1639, doi:10.1002/2015JC011486. Chafik, L., S. Häkkinen, M. H. England, J. A. Carton, S. Nigam, A. Ruiz-Barradas, A. Hannachi, and L. Miller (2016), Global linkages originating from decadal oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(20), 2016GL071134, doi:10.1002/2016GL071134. Chen, T., R. T. McVicar, G. Wang, X. Chen, A. R. de Jeu, Y. Y. Liu, H. Shen, F. Zhang, and J. A. Dolman (2016a), Advantages of using microwave satellite soil moisture over gridded precipitation products and land surface model output in assessing regional vegetation water availability and growth dynamics for a lateral inflow receiving landscape, Remote Sensing, 8(5), 428, doi:10.3390/rs8050428. Chen, T., G. Wang, W. Yuan, A. Li, and Y. Y. Liu (2016b), Asymmetric NDVI trends of the two cropping seasons in the Huai River basin, Remote Sensing Letters, 7(1), 61–70, doi:10.1 080/2150704X.2015.1109156. Choudhury, D., A. Sharma, A. Sen Gupta, R. Mehrotra, and B. Sivakumar (2016), Sampling biases in CMIP-5 decadal forecasts, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(7), 3435–3445, doi:10.1002/2016JD024804. Clarke, H., A. J. Pitman, J. Kala, C. Carouge, V. Haverd, and J. P. Evans (2016), An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia, Climatic Change, 139(3–4), 591–605, doi:10.1007/s10584-0161808-9. Davidson, J. L., A. Lyth, C. L. Baldwin, A. Dedekorkut-Howes, J. C. Ellison, N. J. Holbrook, M. J. Howes, C. Jacobson, S. Serrao-Neumann, L. Singh-Peterson, and T. F. Smith (2016), Interrogating resilience: Towards a typology to improve its operationalization, Ecology and Society, 21(2), 27, doi:10.5751/ES-08450-210227. Deo, A., and K. J. E. Walsh (2016), Contrasting tropical cyclone and nontropical cyclone related rainfall drop size distribution at Darwin, Australia, Atmospheric Research, 181(15), 81–94, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.06.015.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 77 <

Di Luca, A., J. P. Evans, A. Pepler, L. V. Alexander, and D. Argueso (2016), Evaluating the representation of Australian East Coast Lows in a Regional Climate Model ensemble, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 66, 108–124, doi: 10.22499/3.6002.003. Di Luca, A., D. Argüeso, J. P. Evans, R. de Elía, and R. Laprise (2016), Quantifying the overall added value of dynamical downscaling and the contribution from different spatial scales, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(4), 2169–8996, doi:10.1002/2015JD024009. Dittus, A. J., D. J. Karoly, S. C. Lewis, L. V. Alexander, and M. G. Donat (2016), A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes, Journal of Climate, (29), 8285–8299, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-16-0164.1. Dommenget, D. (2016), A simple model perturbed physics study of the simulated climate sensitivity uncertainty and its relation to control climate biases, Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 427–447, doi:10.1007/ s00382-015-2591-4. Dommenget, D., and Y. Yu (2016), The seasonally changing cloud feedbacks contribution to the ENSO seasonal phaselocking, Climate Dynamics, 47(12), 3661– 3672, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3034-6. Donat, M. G., A. D. King, J. T. Overpeck, L. V. Alexander, I. Durre, and D. J. Karoly (2016a), Extraordinary heat during the 1930s US Dust Bowl and associated large-scale conditions, Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 413–426, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2590-5. Donat, M. G., A. L. Lowry, L. V. Alexander, P. A. O’Gorman, and N. Maher (2016b), More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions, Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 508–513, doi:10.1038/nclimate2941. Donat, M. G., L. V. Alexander, N. Herold, and A. J. Dittus (2016c), Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(19), 2016JD025480, doi:10.1002/2016JD025480. Downes, S. M., A. M. Hogg, S. M. Griffies, and B. L. Samuels (2016), The transient response of Southern Ocean circulation to geothermal heating in a global climate model, Journal of Climate, 29(16), 5689– 5708, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0458.1. Dunn, R. J. H., C. Azorin-Molina, C. A. Mears, P. Berrisford, and T. R. McVicar (2016), Global climate: atmospheric circulation, surface winds, surface wind speed in State of the Climate in 2015, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), S38-40.

Gallant, A. J. E., and S. C. Lewis (2016), Stochastic and anthropogenic influences on repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in Australian spring of 2013 and 2014, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 1944–8007, doi:10.1002/2016GL067740. Gergis, J., R. Neukom, A. J. E. Gallant, and D. J. Karoly (2016), Australasian temperature reconstructions spanning the last millennium, Journal of Climate, 29(15), 5365–5392, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1.

Herold, N., J. Kala, and L. V. Alexander (2016b), The influence of soil moisture deficits on Australian heatwaves, Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064003, doi:10.1088/17489326/11/6/064003

Gibson, P. B., P. Uotila, S. E. PerkinsKirkpatrick, L. V. Alexander, and A. Pitman (2016a), Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP-5 climate models over the Australian region, Climate Dynamics, 47(7), 2235–2251, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2961-y.

Hirsch, A. L., A. J. Pitman, and V. Haverd (2016), Evaluating land–atmosphere coupling using a resistance pathway framework, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(10), 2615–2630, doi:10.1175/ JHM-D-15-0204.1.

Gibson, P. B., S. E. Perkins, and J. A. Renwick (2016b), Projected changes in synoptic weather patterns over New Zealand examined through self-organising maps, International Journal of Climatology, 36(12), 3934–3948, doi:10.1002/joc.4604.

Hobbs, W., M. Curran, N. Abram, and E. R. Thomas (2016a), Century-scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends from proxy reconstructions, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 121(10), 7804–7818, doi:10.1002/2016JC012111.

Gilmore, J. B., J. P. Evans, S. Sherwood, M. Ekstrom, and J. Fei (2016), Extreme precipitation in WRF during the Newcastle East Coast Low of 2007, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125(3), 809–827, doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1551-6. Gimeno, L., F. Dominguez, R. Nieto, R. Trigo, A. Drumond, C. J. C. Reason, A. S. Taschetto, A. M. Ramos, R. Kumar, and J. Marengo (2016), Major mechanisms of atmospheric moisture transport and their role in extreme precipitation events, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 41, 117–141, doi:10.1146/annurevenviron-110615-085558. Gottwald, G. A., K. Peters, and L. Davies (2016), A data-driven method for the stochastic parameterisation of subgrid-scale tropical convective area fraction, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(694), 349–359, doi:10.1002/qj.2655. Graham, F. S., A. T. Wittenberg, J. N. Brown, S. J. Marsland, and N. J. Holbrook (2016), Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs, Climate Dynamics, 1–19, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3189-1. Green, D. (2016), The spatial distribution of extreme climate events, another climate inequity for the world’s most vulnerable people, Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 091002, doi:10.1088/17489326/11/9/091002. Harrington, L. J., P. B. Gibson, S. M. Dean, D. Mitchell, S. M. Rosier, and D. J. Frame (2016), Investigating event-specific drought attribution using self-organizing maps, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 121(21), 2016JD025602, doi:10.1002/2016JD025602.

Dutkiewicz, A., R. D. Müller, A. M. Hogg, and P. Spence (2016), Vigorous deep-sea currents cause global anomaly in sediment accumulation in the Southern Ocean, Geology, 44(8), 663–666, doi:10.1130/ G38143.1.

Harris, R. M. B., T. A. Remenyi, G. J. Williamson, N. L. Bindoff, and D. M. J. S. Bowman (2016), Climate–vegetation–fire interactions and feedbacks: Trivial detail or major barrier to projecting the future of the Earth system?, WIREs Climate Change, 7(6), 910–931, doi:10.1002/wcc.428.

Fletcher, J., S. Mason, and C. Jakob (2016), The climatology, meteorology, and boundary layer structure of marine cold air outbreaks in both hemispheres, Journal of Climate, 29(6), 1999–2014, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-15-0268.1.

Hassim, M. E. E., T. P. Lane, and W. W. Grabowski (2016), The diurnal cycle of rainfall over New Guinea in convectionpermitting WRF simulations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16, 161–175, doi:10.5194/acp-16-161-2016.

Fuchs, D., and S. Sherwood (2016), Practical approximations to seasonal fluctuation– dissipation operators given a limited sample, Journal of Atmospheric Science, 73(6), 2529– 2545, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0279.1.

Haughton, N., G. Abramowitz, A. J. Pitman, D. Or, M. J. Best, H. R. Johnson, G. Balsamo, A. Boone, M. Cuntz, B. Decharme, P. A. Dirmeyer, J. Dong, M. Ek, Z. Guo, V. Haverd, B. J. J. van den Hurk, G. S. Nearing, B. Pak, J. A. Santanello, L. E. Stevens, and N. Vuichard (2016), The plumbing of land surface models: Is poor performance a result of methodology or data quality?, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(6), 1705–1723, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0171.1.

Fyfe, J. C., G. A. Meehl, M. H. England, M. E. Mann, B. D. Santer, G. M. Flato, E. Hawkins, N. P. Gillett, S.-P. Xie, Y. Kosaka, and N. C. Swart (2016), Making sense of the early2000s warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, 6(3), 224–228, doi:10.1038/ nclimate2938.

Herold, N., L. V. Alexander, M. G. Donat, S. Contractor, and A. Becker (2016a), How much does it rain over land?, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(1), 341–348, doi:10.1002/2015GL066615.

>78 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Hobbs, W. R., R. Massom, S. Stammerjohn, P. Reid, G. Williams, and W. Meier (2016b), A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings, Global and Planetary Change, 143, 228–250, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.008. Hobbs, W. R., M. Palmer, and D. Monselesan (2016c), An energy conservation analysis of ocean drift in the CMIP-5 global coupled models, Journal of Climate, 29, 1639–1653, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0477.1. Hobday, A. J., L. V. Alexander, S. E. Perkins, D. A. Smale, S. C. Straub, E. C. J. Oliver, J. A. Benthuysen, M. T. Burrows, M. G. Donat, M. Feng, N. J. Holbrook, P. J. Moore, H. A. Scannell, A. Sen Gupta, and T. Wernberg (2016), A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves, Progress in Oceanography, 141, 227–238, doi:10.1016/j. pocean.2015.12.014. Holgate, C. M., R. A. M. De Jeu, A. I. J. M. van Dijk, Y. Y. Liu, L. J. Renzullo, Vinodkumar, I. Dharssi, R. M. Parinussa, R. Van Der Schalie, A. Gevaert, J. Walker, D. McJannet, J. Cleverly, V. Haverd, C. M. Trudinger, and P. R. Briggs (2016), Comparison of remotely sensed and modelled soil moisture data sets across Australia, Remote Sensing of Environment, 186, 479–500, doi:10.1016/j. rse.2016.09.015. Huiskamp, W. N., K. J. Meissner, and M. dOrgeville (2016), Competition between ocean carbon pumps in simulations with varying southern hemisphere westerly wind forcing, Climate Dynamics, 46(11), 3463– 3480, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2781-0. Humphries, R. S., A. R. Klekociuk, R. Schofield, M. Keywood, J. Ward, and S. R. Wilson (2016), Unexpectedly high ultrafine aerosol concentrations above East Antarctic sea ice, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(4), 2185–2206, doi:10.5194/acp-16-21852016. Ilıcak, M., H. Drange, Q. Wang, R. Gerdes, Y. Aksenov, D. Bailey, M. Bentsen, A. Biastoch, A. Bozec, C. Böning, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, A. C. Coward, B. Curry, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, E. Fernandez, P. G. Fogli, Y. Fujii, S. M. Griffies, D. Iovino, A. Jahn, T. Jung, W. G. Large, C. Lee, C. Lique, J. Lu, S. Masina, A. J. George Nurser, C. Roth, D. Salas y Mélia, B. L. Samuels, P. Spence, H. Tsujino, S. Valcke, A. Voldoire, X. Wang, and S. G. Yeager (2016), An assessment of the Arctic Ocean in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations. Part III: Hydrography and fluxes, Ocean Modelling, 100, 141–161, doi:10.1016/j. ocemod.2016.02.004. Ji, F., J. P. Evans, J. Teng, Y. Scorgie, D. Argueso, and A. D. Luca (2016), Evaluation of long-term precipitation and temperature Weather Research and Forecasting simulations for southeast Australia, Climate Research, 67(2), doi:10.3354/cr01366

Johnson, G. C., J. M. Lyman, T. Boyer, C. M. Domingues, M. Ishii, R. Killik, D. Monselesan, and S. E. Wijffels (2016), Global oceans: Ocean heat content, in State of the Climate in 2015, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), S66-70. Jones, J. M., S. T. Gille, H. Goosse, N. J. Abram, P. O. Canziani, D. J. Charman, K. R. Clem, X. Crosta, C. D. Lavergne, I. Eisenman, M. H. England, R. L. Fogt, L. M. Frankcombe, G. J. Marshall, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. K. Morrison, A. J. Orsi, M. N. Raphael, J. A. Renwick, D. P. Schneider, G. R. Simpkins, E. J. Steig, B. Stenni, D. Swingedouw, and T. R. Vance (2016), Assessing recent trends in high-latitude southern hemisphere surface climate, Nature Climate Change, 6(10), 917, doi:10.1038/nclimate3103. Jourdain, N. C., M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, T. Izumo, and A. Sen Gupta (2016), Further insights on the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s ENSO from observations and CMIP-5 models, Journal of Climate, 29, 637–658, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0481.1. Jucker, M. (2016), Are sudden stratospheric warmings generic? Insights from an idealized GCM, Journal of Atmospheric Science, 73(12), 5061–5080, doi:10.1175/ JAS-D-15-0353.1. Kajtar, J. B., A. Santoso, M. H. England, and W. Cai (2016), Tropical climate variability: Interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, Climate Dynamics, 1–18, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3199-z. Kala, J., M. G. De Kauwe, A. J. Pitman, B. E. Medlyn, Y.-P. Wang, R. Lorenz, and S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick (2016), Impact of the representation of stomatal conductance on model projections of heatwave intensity, Scientific Reports, 6, 23418, doi:10.1038/ srep23418. Karoly, D. J., M. T. Black, M. R. Grose, and A. D. King (2016), The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S127–S130, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0139.1. Keenlyside, N., and D. Dommenget (2016), The fingerprint of global warming in the Tropical Pacific, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33(4), 533–534, doi:10.1007/ s00376-016-6014-1. Kepert, J. D., J. Schwendike, and H. A. Ramsay (2016), Why is the tropical cyclone boundary layer not “well mixed”?, Journal of Atmospheric Science, 73, 957–973, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0216.1. Kim, S., R. M. Parinussa, Y. Y. Liu, F. M. Johnson, and A. Sharma (2016a), Merging alternate remotely-sensed soil moisture retrievals using a non-static model combination approach, Remote Sensing, 8(6), 518, doi:10.3390/rs8060518. Kim, Y.-H., S.-K. Min, X. Zhang, F. Zwiers, L. V. Alexander, M. G. Donat, and Y.-S. Tung (2016b), Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010, Climate Dynamics, 46(5–6), 1769–1782, doi:10.1007/ s00382-015-2674-2. King, A. D., G. J. vanOldendorgh, and D. Karoly (2016a), Climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Indonesian heat and drought, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S113–S117. King, A. D., M. T. Black, S.-K. Min, E. M. Fischer, D. M. Mitchell, L. J. Harrington, and S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick (2016b), Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(7), 3438–3443, doi:10.1002/2015GL067448. King, M. J., M. C. Wheeler, and T. P. Lane (2016c), 5-day-wave interactions with tropical precipitation in CMIP-5 models, Journal of Climate, 29(23), 8611–8624, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0190.1.

Kiss, A. E., and L. M. Frankcombe (2016), The influence of periodic forcing on the time dependence of western boundary currents: Phase-locking, chaos, and mechanisms of low-frequency variability, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 46, 1117–1136, doi:10.1175/ JPO-D-15-0113.1. Klotzbach, P. J., E. C. J. Oliver, R. Leeper, and C. J. Schreck (2016), The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and southeastern New England snowfall, Monthly Weather Review, 144, 1355–1362, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1. Kumar, V. V., A. Protat, C. Jakob, C. R. Williams, S. Rauniyar, G. L. Stephens, and P. T. May (2016), The estimation of convective mass flux from radar reflectivities, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(5), 1239–1257, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0193.1. Lewis, S. C. (2016), Can public perceptions of Australian climate extremes be reconciled with the statistics of climate change?, Weather and Climate Extremes, 12, 33–42, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.11.008. Lim, W. H., M. L. Roderick, and G. D. Farquhar (2016), A mathematical model of pan evaporation under steady state conditions, Journal of Hydrology, 540, 641– 658, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.048. López-Parages, J., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, D. Dommenget, and C. Frauen (2016), ENSO influence on the North Atlantic European climate: A non-linear and non-stationary approach, Climate Dynamics, 47(7–8), 2071– 2084, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2951-0. Lorenz, R., A. J. Pitman, and S. A. Sisson (2016), Does Amazonian deforestation cause global effects; can we be sure?, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(10), 2015JD024357, doi:10.1002/2015JD024357. Lorenz, R., D. Argueso, G. D. Markus, A. J. Pitman, B. van den Hurk, A. Berg, D. Lawrence, F. Cheruy, A. Duchame, S. Hagemann, A. Meier, P. C. D. Milly, and S. I. Seneviratne (2016), Influence of landatmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP-5 ensemble, Journal of Geophysical Research, 121(2), 607–623, doi:10.1002/2015JD024053. Loridan, T., L. Coates, D. Argeueso, S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and J. McAneney (2016), The Excess Heat Factor as a metric for heat related fatalities: Defining heatwave risk categories, Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 31(4), 37pp. Ma, S., A. J. Pitman, R. Lorenz, J. Kala, and J. Srbinovsky (2016), Earlier green-up and spring warming amplification over Europe, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 1944– 8007, doi:10.1002/2016GL068062. Macadam, I., D. Argüeso, J. P. Evans, D. L. Liu, and A. J. Pitman (2016), The effect of bias correction and climate model resolution on wheat simulations forced with a regional climate model ensemble, International Journal of Climatology, 36(14), 4577–4591, doi:10.1002/joc.4653. Maher, P., and S. C. Sherwood (2016), Skill in simulating Australian precipitation at the tropical edge, Journal of Climate, 29(4), 1477–1496, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0548.1. Mann, M. E., B. A. Steinman, S. K. Miller, L. M. Frankcombe, M. H. England, and A. H. Cheung (2016), Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(7), 3459–3467, doi:10.1002/2016GL068159. van Marle, M. J. E., G. R. van der Werf, R. A. M. de Jeu, and Y. Y. Liu (2016), Annual South American forest loss estimates based on passive microwave remote sensing (1990–2010), Biogeosciences, 13(2), 609–624, doi:10.5194/bg-13-609-2016.

McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, and F.-F. Jin (2016), Charging El Niño events with offequatorial wind bursts?, Climate Dynamics, 47(3), 1111–1125, doi:10.1007/s00382-0152891-8. McInnes, K. L., C. J. White, I. D. Haigh, M. A. Hemer, R. K. Hoeke, N. J. Holbrook, A. S. Kiem, E. C. J. Oliver, R. Ranasinghe, K. J. E. Walsh, S. Westra, and R. Cox (2016), Natural hazards in Australia: sea level and coastal extremes, Climatic Change, 139(1), 69–83, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1647-8. Menezes, V. V., H. E. Phillips, M. L. Vianna, and N. L. Bindoff (2016), Interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(5), 3465–3487, doi:10.1002/2015JC011417. Menviel, L., J. Yu, F. Joos, A. Mouchet, K. J. Meissner, and M. H. England (2016), Poorly ventilated deep ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum inferred from carbon isotopes: A data-model comparison study, Paleoceanography, 2016PA003024, doi:10.1002/2016PA003024. Merino, N., J. Le Sommer, G. Durand, N. C. Jourdain, G. Madec, P. Mathiot, and J. Tournadre (2016), Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean: Climatology and impact on sea ice, Ocean Modelling, 104, 99–110, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.05.001. Meyer, A., K. L. Polzin, B. M. Sloyan, and H. E. Phillips (2016), Internal waves and mixing near the Kerguelen Plateau, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 46(2), 417–437, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0055.1. Murray-Tortarolo, G., P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, S. I. Seneviratne, I. Fletcher, B. Mueller, P. Greve, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Ahlström, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng (2016), The dry season intensity as a key driver of NPP trends, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6), 2016GL068240, doi:10.1002/2016GL068240. Naseem, B., H. Ajami, Y. Liu, I. Cordery, and A. Sharma (2016), Multi-objective assessment of three remote sensing vegetation products for streamflow prediction in a conceptual ecohydrological model, Journal of Hydrology, 543, Part B, 686–705, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.038. Ogier, E. M., J. Davidson, P. Fidelman, M. Haward, A. J. Hobday, N. J. Holbrook, E. Hoshino, and G. T. Pecl (2016), Fisheries management approaches as platforms for climate change adaptation: Comparing theory and practice in Australian fisheries, Marine Policy, 71, 82–93, doi:10.1016/j. marpol.2016.05.014. Oliver, E. C. J. (2016), Blind use of reanalysis data: Apparent trends in Madden-Julian Oscillation activity driven by observational changes, International Journal of Climatology, 36(10), 3458–3468, doi:10.1002/joc.4568. Oliver, E. C. J., and K. R. Thompson (2016), Predictability of the Madden– Julian Oscillation index: Seasonality and dependence on MJO phase, Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 159–176, doi:10.1007/ s00382-015-2576-3. Oliver, E. C. J., M. Herzfeld, and N. J. Holbrook (2016), Modelling the shelf circulation off eastern Tasmania, Continental Shelf Research, 130, 14–33, doi:10.1016/j. csr.2016.10.005. Olson, R., J. P. Evans, A. D. Luca, and D. Argüeso (2016), The NARCliM project: Model agreement and significance of climate projections, Climate Research, 69(3), 209–227, doi:10.3354/cr01403.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 79 <

Osburn, L., T. Chubb, S. T. Siems, and M. J. Manton (2016), Observations of supercooled liquid water in wintertime alpine storms in south eastern Australia, Atmospheric Research, 169, 345–356, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.10.007. Otto, F. E. L., G. J. van Oldenborgh, J. Eden, P. A. Stott, D. J. Karoly, and M. R. Allen (2016), The attribution question, Nature Climate Change, 6(9), 813–816, doi:10.1038/ nclimate3089. Pepler, A., L. Alexander, J. Evans, and S. Sherwood (2016a), Zonal winds and southeast Australian rainfall in global and regional climate models, Climate Dynamics, 46(1), 123–133, doi:10.1007/s00382-0152573-6. Pepler, A. S., A. Di Luca, F. Ji, L. V. Alexander, J. P. Evans, and S. C. Sherwood (2016b), Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(1), 334–340, doi:10.1002/2015GL067267. Pepler, A. S., L. V. Alexander, J. P. Evans, and S. C. Sherwood (2016c), The influence of local sea surface temperatures on Australian east coast cyclones, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(22), 13352– 133363, doi:10.1002/2016JD025495. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., C. J. White, L. V. Alexander, D. Argüeso, G. Boschat, T. Cowan, J. P. Evans, M. Ekström, E. C. J. Oliver, A. Phatak, and A. Purich (2016), Natural hazards in Australia: Heatwaves, Climatic Change, 139(1), 101–114, doi:10.1007/ s10584-016-1650-0. Pitman, A. J., and R. Lorenz (2016), Scale dependence of the simulated impact of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate, Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 094025, doi:10.1088/17489326/11/9/094025. Pontes, G. M., A. Sen Gupta, and A. S. Taschetto (2016), Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: The role of wind and deep ocean changes, Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 094013, doi:10.1088/17489326/11/9/094013. Pookkandy, B., D. Dommenget, N. Klingaman, S. Wales, C. Chung, C. Frauen, and H. Wolff (2016), The role of local atmospheric forcing on the modulation of the ocean mixed layer depth in reanalyses and a coupled single column ocean model, Climate Dynamics, 47(9), 2991–3010, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3009-7. Purich, A., W. Cai, M. H. England, and T. Cowan (2016a), Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes, Nature Communications, 7(10409), doi:10.1038/ncomms10409. Purich, A., M. H. England, W. Cai, Y. Chikamoto, A. Timmermann, J. C. Fyfe, L. Frankcombe, G. A. Meehl, and J. M. Arblaster (2016b), Tropical Pacific SST drivers of recent Antarctic sea ice trends, Journal of Climate, 29(24), 8931–8948, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0440.1. Qin, X., L. Menviel, A. Sen Gupta, and E. van Sebille (2016), Iron sources and pathways into the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent, Geophysical Research Letters 43(18), 2016GL070501, doi:10.1002/2016GL070501. Rädel, G., T. Mauritsen, B. Stevens, D. Dommenget, D. Matei, K. Bellomo, and A. Clement (2016), Amplification of El Niño by cloud longwave coupling to atmospheric circulation, Nature Geoscience, 9(2), 106– 110, doi:10.1038/ngeo2630.

Rosso, I., A. M. Hogg, R. Matear, and P. G. Strutton (2016), Quantifying the influence of sub-mesoscale dynamics on the supply of iron to Southern Ocean phytoplankton blooms, Deep Sea Research Part I, Oceanographic Research Papers, 115, 199– 209, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2016.06.009.

Stone, K. A., O. Morgenstern, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, W. J. French, N. L. Abraham, and R. Schofield (2016), Evaluation of the ACCESS – chemistry–climate model for the southern hemisphere, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(4), 2401–2415, doi:10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016.

Saenko, O. A., J. C. Fyfe, N. C. Swart, W. G. Lee, and M. H. England (2016), Influence of tropical wind on global temperature from months to decades, Climate Dynamics, 47(7), 2193–2203, doi:10.1007/s00382-0152958-6.

Sullivan, M., and D. Green (2016), Misled about lead: An assessment of online public health education material from Australia’s lead mining and smelting towns, Environmental Health, 15(1), 12pp, doi:10.1186/s12940-015-0085-9.

Schroeter, S., W. Hobbs, and N. L. Bindoff (2016), Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP-5 models, The Cryosphere Discussions, 2016, 1–24, doi:10.5194/tc-2016-200.

Taschetto, A. S., A. S. Gupta, C. C. Ummenhofer, and M. H. England (2016a), Can Australian multiyear droughts and wet spells be generated in the absence of oceanic variability?, Journal of Climate, 29(17), 6201–6221, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-15-0694.1.

Schuyler, Q. A., C. Wilcox, K. A. Townsend, K. R. Wedemeyer-Strombel, G. Balazs, E. van Sebille, and B. D. Hardesty (2016), Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles, Global Change Biology, 22(2), 567–576, doi:10.1111/gcb.13078. Sen Gupta, A., S. McGregor, E. van Sebille, A. Ganachaud, J. N. Brown, and A. Santoso (2016), Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1944–8007, doi:10.1002/2016GL067757. Seneviratne, S. I., M. G. Donat, A. J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R. L. Wilby (2016), Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets, Nature, 529(7587), 477–483, doi:10.1038/ nature16542. Serrao-Neumann, S., J. Davidson, C. Baldwin, A. Dedekorkut-Howes, J. Ellison, N. J. Holbrook, M. Howes, C. Jaconson, and E. Morgan (2016), Marine governance to avoid tipping points: can we adapt the adaptability envelope?, Marine Policy, 65, 56–67, doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.007. Sewell, T., R. E. Stephens, D. DomineyHowes, E. Bruce, and S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick (2016), Disaster declarations associated with bushfires, floods and storms in New South Wales, Australia between 2004 and 2014, Scientific Reports, 6, 36369, doi:10.1038/ srep36369. Sijp, W. P., and M. H. England (2016), The effect of low ancient greenhouse climate temperature gradients on the ocean’s overturning circulation, Climate of the Past, 12(2), 543–552, doi:10.5194/cp-12-5432016. Snow, K., B. M. Sloyan, S. R. Rintoul, A. M. Hogg, and S. M. Downes (2016a), Controls on circulation, cross-shelf exchange, and dense water formation in an Antarctic polynya, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(13), 7089–7096, doi:10.1002/2016GL069479. Snow, K., A. M. C. Hogg, B. M. Sloyan, and S. M. Downes (2016b), Sensitivity of Antarctic bottom water to changing surface buoyancy fluxes, Journal of Climate, 29, 313–330, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0467.1. Stewart, K. D., and T. W. N. Haine (2016), Thermobaricity in the transition zones between alpha and beta oceans, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 46(6), 1805–1821, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0017.1. Stockhecke, M., A. Timmermann, R. Kipfer, G. H. Haug, O. Kwiecien, T. Friedrich, L. Menviel, T. Litt, N. Pcikarski, and F. S. Anselmetti (2016), Millennial to orbitalscale variations of drought intensity in the eastern Mediterranean, Quarternary Science Reviews, 133, 77–95, doi:10.1016/j. quascirev.2015.12.016.

>80 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Taschetto, A. S., R. R. Rodrigues, G. A. Meehl, S. McGregor, and M. H. England (2016b), How sensitive are the Pacific-North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming, Climate Dynamics, 46(5), 1841–1860, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2679-x. Thorne, P. W., M. G. Donat, R. J. H. Dunn, C. N. Williams, L. V. Alexander, J. Caesar, I. Durre, I. Harris, Z. Hausfather, P. D. Jones, M. J. Menne, R. Rohde, R. S. Vose, R. Davy, A. M. G. Klein-Tank, J. H. Lawrimore, T. C. Peterson, and J. J. Rennie (2016), Reassessing changes in diurnal temperature range: Intercomparison and evaluation of existing global data set estimates, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(10), 2015JD024584, doi:10.1002/2015JD024584. Tian, F., M. Brandt, Y. Y. Liu, A. Verger, T. Tagesson, A. A. Diouf, K. Rasmussen, C. Mbow, Y. Wang, and R. Fensholt (2016), Remote sensing of vegetation dynamics in drylands: Evaluating vegetation optical depth (VOD) using AVHRR NDVI and in situ green biomass data over West African Sahel, Remote Sensing of Environment, 177, 265–276, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2016.02.056. Uhe, P., F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, G. J. van Oldenborgh, A. D. King, D. C. H. Wallom, M. R. Allen, and H. Cullen (2016), Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16), 2016GL069568, doi:10.1002/2016GL069568. Ukkola, A. M., M. G. D. Kauwe, A. J. Pitman, M. J. Best, G. Abramowitz, V. Haverd, M. Decker, and N. Haughton (2016a), Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts, Environmental Research Letters, 11(10), 104012, doi:10.1088/17489326/11/10/104012. Ukkola, A. M., A. J. Pitman, M. Decker, M. G. De Kauwe, G. Abramowitz, J. Kala, and Y.-P. Wang (2016b), Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: identifying critical processes in a land surface model, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(6), 2403–2419, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016. Ukkola, A. M., T. F. Keenan, D. I. Kelley, and I. C. Prentice (2016c), Vegetation plays an important role in mediating future water resources, Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 094022, doi:10.1088/17489326/11/9/094022. Vincent, C. L., and T. P. Lane (2016), Evolution of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle with the passage of a Madden–Julian Oscillation Event through the Maritime Continent, Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1983–2005, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0326.1.

Vincent, C. L., T. P. Lane, and M. C. Wheeler (2016), A local index of Maritime Continent intraseasonal variability based on rain rates over the land and sea, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(17), 2016GL069987, doi:10.1002/2016GL069987.

Wong, P. P., P. Lai, C. Low, S. Chen, and M. A. Hart (2016), The impact of environmental and human factors on urban heat and microclimate variability, Building and Environment, 95, 199–208, doi:10.1016/j. buildenv.2015.09.024.

Vreugdenhil, C. A., A. M. Hogg, R. W. Griffiths, and G. O. Hughes (2016), Adjustment of the meridional overturning circulation and its dependence on abyssal and upper ocean mixing, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 46, 731–747, doi:10.1175/ JPO-D-15-0050.1.

Yanshan, Y., D. Dommenget, C. Frauen, G. Wang, and S. Wales (2016), ENSO diversity as a result of the recharge oscillator interacting with the slab ocean, Climate Dynamics, 46(5), 1665–1682, doi:10.1007/ s00382-015-2667-1.

Walsh, K., C. J. White, K. McInnes, J. Holmes, S. Schuster, H. Richter, J. P. Evans, A. D. Luca, and R. A. Warren (2016), Natural hazards in Australia: Storms, wind and hail, Climatic Change, 139(1), 55–67, doi:10.1007/s10584016-1737-7. Wang, B., D. Li Liu, I. Macadam, L. V. Alexander, G. Abramowitz, and Q. Yu (2016a), Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme temperature change using a statistical downscaling method in south eastern Australia, Climate Change, 138(1), 85–98. Wang, G., and D. Dommenget (2016), The leading modes of decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP-5 simulations, Climate Dynamics, 47(5), 1775–1792, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2932-3. Wang, Q., M. Ilicak, R. Gerdes, H. Drange, Y. Aksenov, D. A. Bailey, M. Bentsen, A. Biastoch, A. Bozec, C. Böning, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, A. C. Coward, B. Curry, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, E. Fernandez, P. G. Fogli, Y. Fujii, S. M. Griffies, D. Iovino, A. Jahn, T. Jung, W. G. Large, C. Lee, C. Lique, J. Lu, S. Masina, A. J. G. Nurser, B. Rabe, C. Roth, D. Salas y Mélia, B. L. Samuels, P. Spence, H. Tsujino, S. Valcke, A. Voldoire, X. Wang, and S. G. Yeager (2016a), An assessment of the Arctic Ocean in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations. Part I: Sea ice and solid freshwater, Ocean Modelling, 99, 110–132, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.12.008. Wang, Q., M. Ilicak, R. Gerdes, H. Drange, Y. Aksenov, D. A. Bailey, M. Bentsen, A. Biastoch, A. Bozec, C. Böning, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, A. C. Coward, B. Curry, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, E. Fernandez, P. G. Fogli, Y. Fujii, S. M. Griffies, D. Iovino, A. Jahn, T. Jung, W. G. Large, C. Lee, C. Lique, J. Lu, S. Masina, A. J. G. Nurser, B. Rabe, C. Roth, D. Salas y Mélia, B. L. Samuels, P. Spence, H. Tsujino, S. Valcke, A. Voldoire, X. Wang, and S. G. Yeager (2016b), An assessment of the Arctic Ocean in a suite of interannual COREII simulations. Part II: Liquid freshwater, Ocean Modelling, 99, 86–109, doi:10.1016/j. ocemod.2015.12.009. Warren, B., P. Christoff, and D. Green (2016), Australia’s sustainable energy transition: The disjointed politics of decarbonisation, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 21, 1–12, doi:10.1016/j. eist.2016.01.001. Watson, C. D., and T. P. Lane (2016), A case of an undular bore and prefrontal precipitation in the Australian Alps, Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2623–2644, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0355.1. Whitley, R., J. Beringer, L. B. Hutley, G. Abramowitz, M. G. De Kauwe, R. Duursma, B. Evans, V. Haverd, L. Li, Y. Ryu, B. Smith, Y.-P. Wang, M. Williams, and Q. Yu (2016), A model intercomparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas, Biogeosciences, 13(11), 3245–3265, doi:10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016. Wilson, L. J., C. J. Fulton, A. M. Hogg, K. E. Joyce, B. T. M. Radford, and C. I. Fraser (2016), Climate-driven changes to ocean circulation and their inferred impacts on marine dispersal patterns, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25(8), 923–939, doi:10.1111/geb.12456.

Ypma, S. L., E. van Sebille, A. E. Kiss, and P. Spence (2016), The separation of the East Australian Current: A Lagrangian approach to potential vorticity and upstream control, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(1), 758–774, doi:10.1002/2015JC011133. Yu, J., L. Menviel, Z. D. Jin, D. J. R. Thornalley, S. Barker, G. Marino, E. J. Rohling, Y. Cai, F. Zhang, X. Wang, Y. Dai, P. Chen, and W. S. Broecker (2016), Sequestration of carbon in the deep Atlantic during the last glaciation, Nature Geoscience, 9(4), 319–324, doi:10.1038/ngeo2657. Yue, R. P. H., H. F. Lee, and M. A. Hart (2016), The human dimension of visibility degradation in a compact city, Natural Hazards, 82(3), 1683–1702, doi:10.1007/ s11069-016-2263-7. Zhang, H., H. Beggs, L. Majewski, H. X. Wang, and A. E. Kiss (2016), Investigating sea surface temperature diurnal variation over the tropical warm pool using MTSAT1R data, Remote Sensing of Environment, 183, 1–12. Zhang, H., H. Beggs, X. H. Wang, A. E. Kiss, and C. Griffin (2016), Seasonal patterns of SST diurnal variation over the Tropical Warm Pool region, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(11), 8077–8094, doi:10.1002/2016JC012210. Zhang, Y., J. L. Peña-Arancibia, T. R. McVicar, F. H. S. Chiew, J. Vaze, C. Liu, X. Lu, H. Zheng, Y. Wang, Y. Y. Liu, D. G. Miralles, and M. Pan (2016), Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components, Scientific Reports, 6, 19124, doi:10.1038/srep19124. Zhao, X., K. Strong, C. Adams, R. Schofield, X. Yang, A. Richter, U. Friess, A.-M. Blechschmidt, and J.-H. Koo (2016), A case study of a transported bromine explosion event in the Canadian high arctic, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(1), 2169–8996, doi:10.1002/2015JD023711. Zheng, X., S. J. Kao, Z. Chen, L. Menviel, H. Chen, Y. Du, S. Wan, H. Yan, Z. Liu, L. Zheng, S. Wang, D. Li, and X. Zhang (2016), Deepwater circulation variation in the South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16), 8590– 8599, doi:10.1002/2016GL070342.Spence, H. Tsujino, S. Valcke, A. Voldoire, X. Wang, and S. G. Yeager (2016b), An assessment of the Arctic Ocean in a suite of interannual COREII simulations. Part II: Liquid freshwater, Ocean Modelling, 99, 86–109, doi:10.1016/j. ocemod.2015.12.009. Warren, B., P. Christoff, and D. Green (2016), Australia’s sustainable energy transition: The disjointed politics of decarbonisation, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 21, 1–12, doi:10.1016/j. eist.2016.01.001.

tropical savannas, Biogeosciences, 13(11), 3245–3265, doi:10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016. Wilson, L. J., C. J. Fulton, A. M. Hogg, K. E. Joyce, B. T. M. Radford, and C. I. Fraser (2016), Climate-driven changes to ocean circulation and their inferred impacts on marine dispersal patterns, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25(8), 923–939, doi:10.1111/ geb.12456. Wong, P. P., P. Lai, C. Low, S. Chen, and M. A. Hart (2016), The impact of environmental and human factors on urban heat and microclimate variability, Building and Environment, 95, 199–208, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2015.09.024. Yanshan, Y., D. Dommenget, C. Frauen, G. Wang, and S. Wales (2016), ENSO diversity as a result of the recharge oscillator interacting with the slab ocean, Climate Dynamics, 46(5), 1665–1682, doi:10.1007/ s00382-015-2667-1. Ypma, S. L., E. van Sebille, A. E. Kiss, and P. Spence (2016), The separation of the East Australian Current: A Lagrangian approach to potential vorticity and upstream control, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(1), 758–774, doi:10.1002/2015JC011133. Yu, J., L. Menviel, Z. D. Jin, D. J. R. Thornalley, S. Barker, G. Marino, E. J. Rohling, Y. Cai, F. Zhang, X. Wang, Y. Dai, P. Chen, and W. S. Broecker (2016), Sequestration of carbon in the deep Atlantic during the last glaciation, Nature Geoscience, 9(4), 319–324, doi:10.1038/ngeo2657. Yue, R. P. H., H. F. Lee, and M. A. Hart (2016), The human dimension of visibility degradation in a compact city, Natural Hazards, 82(3), 1683–1702, doi:10.1007/s11069-0162263-7. Zhang, H., H. Beggs, L. Majewski, H. X. Wang, and A. E. Kiss (2016), Investigating sea surface temperature diurnal variation over the tropical warm pool using MTSAT-1R data, Remote Sensing of Environment, 183, 1–12. Zhang, H., H. Beggs, X. H. Wang, A. E. Kiss, and C. Griffin (2016), Seasonal patterns of SST diurnal variation over the Tropical Warm Pool region, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(11), 8077–8094, doi:10.1002/2016JC012210. Zhang, Y., J. L. Peña-Arancibia, T. R. McVicar, F. H. S. Chiew, J. Vaze, C. Liu, X. Lu, H. Zheng, Y. Wang, Y. Y. Liu, D. G. Miralles, and M. Pan (2016), Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components, Scientific Reports, 6, 19124, doi:10.1038/srep19124. Zhao, X., K. Strong, C. Adams, R. Schofield, X. Yang, A. Richter, U. Friess, A.-M. Blechschmidt, and J.-H. Koo (2016), A case study of a transported bromine explosion event in the Canadian high arctic, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(1), 2169–8996, doi:10.1002/2015JD023711. Zheng, X., S. J. Kao, Z. Chen, L. Menviel, H. Chen, Y. Du, S. Wan, H. Yan, Z. Liu, L. Zheng, S. Wang, D. Li, and X. Zhang (2016), Deepwater circulation variation in the South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16), 8590– 8599, doi:10.1002/2016GL070342.

Watson, C. D., and T. P. Lane (2016), A case of an undular bore and prefrontal precipitation in the Australian Alps, Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2623–2644, doi:10.1175/ MWR-D-15-0355.1. Whitley, R., J. Beringer, L. B. Hutley, G. Abramowitz, M. G. De Kauwe, R. Duursma, B. Evans, V. Haverd, L. Li, Y. Ryu, B. Smith, Y.-P. Wang, M. Williams, and Q. Yu (2016), A model intercomparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 81 <

Outreach and Engagement Lists Prizes, Awards, Elections and Citations Abram, N. Vice-Chancellor’s Award for advancing the reputation of the university through media Bindoff, N. University of Tasmania Distinguished Service Medal for contributions to the university Buchanan, P. Fulbright Scholarship to Princeton University, the United States Cowan, T. AMOS Uwe Radok Award 2016 Downes, S. AIPS 2016 Tasmanian State Young Tall Poppy Scientist of the Year England, M. Elected a Fellow of the AGU Frankcombe, L. Awarded a DECRA Hendon, H. Elected a Fellow of the AGU Henley, B. 2016 GN Alexander Medal Jakob, C. 2016 Ascent Award of the AGU’s atmospheric sciences section

Oogjes, J. Liaising with the City of Melbourne Council about weather station installation related to Melbourne Metro Rail project Pitman, A. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority Briefing Pitman, A. Uniting Justice Australia, Uniting Church in Australia Assembly Pitman, A. NRIR/NCRIS EWG meeting, Melbourne Pitman, A. NRM Impacts & Adaptation research grants program Pitman, A. CSIRO Projections Project Steering Committee meeting Santoso, A. Discussion at ICOPE 2016 conference regarding the utility of El Niño predictability for palm oil management Santoso, A. Talk and one-to-one discussions at the 8th Asia Sustainable Palm Oil Summit on El Niño Southern Oscillation and implications for the palm oil industry

Meissner, K. UNSW Science Staff Excellence Award in Equity, Diversity and Inclusion for GERL talk lunches

Santoso, A. Provided information about El Niño and La Niña to the firefighting community at the Aerial Firefighting Asia Pacific conference

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. AMOS 2016 Early Career Researcher Award

Steffen, W. Briefing to Ken Wyatt, MP on climate change

Sherwood, S. 2015 Editors’ Citation for Excellence in Refereeing - Geophysical Research Letters.

Steffen, W. Brieifing to Queensland members of parliament on climate change and land clearing

Government and Industry Engagement

Public Talks

Barthel, A. CCRC representative at AYCC/CPSU delegation meeting with MPs and Senators about CSIRO cuts England, M. JSCOT public hearing Paris Agreement Gray, S. Invited expert advisor on establishing a successful Centre of Excellence at Coral Triangle Initiative six-nation working group on climate change adaptation Lane, T. Briefed Anthony Carbines MP, Secretary for the Environment, Victoria Lane, T. Bureau of Meteorology Research Scientist Assessment Committee Lewis, S. Delivered guest lecture on “Climate change and extremes” to Climate Change in the Defence Environment - Short Course for Department of Defence

Abram, N. Talk to Parks Australia, Christmas Island, about planned Future Fellowship research Abram, N. Chair of Climate Change Response Post-Paris session for ANU Energy Update 2016 Bindoff, N. Invited keynote talk “Creating and building Antarctic and Southern Ocean programs for the benefit of society” at Global Ocean Summit Blanche, B. Volunteer expert for ice core display at Antarctic Festival, Hobart, aimed at school children and the public Blanche, B. Volunteer for STEM-centred activities and displays at the Festival of Bright Ideas, Hobart Blanche, B. Volunteer with Climate Action Hobart at the Sustainable Living Festival, Hobart

>82 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Buchanan, P. Presentation on research to the Royal Society of Tasmania Buchanan, P. Presentation on basic global biogeochemical cycling, to Year 5 students at Calvin Christian Primary School, Kingston, Tasmania Colin, M. Talk at the French High School in Maroubra about “Climate, ocean, and meteorology” Dittus, A. Talk to school students from Derrimut Primary School, Victoria, about “Weather and measuring the weather”. Help with ideas for setting up students’ own weather station Dommenget, D. Talk to teachers and Sustainability Victoria on “Climate change in the classroom” Dommenget, D. Participated in teacher workshop on climate change in the classroom Dommenget, D. Participated in High School Science Project Week, featuring the Monash Simple Climate Model at Penleigh and Essendon Grammar School, Melbourne Downes, S. Presentations to students in Years 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 and 10 at three schools in Hobart. Topics: Coding climate and Climate and megacities England, M. Talk on “The costs of climate change mitigation vs adaptation” as part of Global Climate Change Week, UNSW England, M. UNSOMNIA public event – UNSW Grand Challenges launch England, M. Talk on “Oceans and climate change”, UNSW Fernandes, E. climate change in the classroom participant Gallant, A. Lecture on “Climate change in the classroom” to teachers and Sustainability Victoria Hart, M. Talk on “Career opportunities in climate sciences” at AMSI summer school Hogg, A. Talk to STEM X Academy Science Teachers Workshop Jakob, C. Organiser and presenter at teacher workshop on climate change in the classroom Jakob, C. Talk on climate change to the Geography Teachers Association, Victoria King, A. Talk on climate change at Wesley College, Melbourne

Lewis, S. Led science session for kindergarten class at O’Connor Cooperative School, Canberra Lewis, S. Invited speaker for The Wholesome Show, with Dr Will Grant and Dr Rod Lamberts from the Centre for Public Awareness of Science Lewis, S. Ran National Science Week activity at O’Connor Cooperative School, Canberra Lewis, S. Ran National Science Week climate science trivia night with Prof Kate Auty and Dr Anna MacDonald Lewis, S. Competed in ANU Battle of the Brains event for school students and the public Roderick, M. Lecture to Daramalan College senior science students Sen Gupta, A. Multiple talks at St Edmonds School, Turramurra Sen Gupta, A. Talk to the Australian Business School on “Anthropogenic climate change”. Sherwood, S. Friends of CSIRO information session, Sydney Spence, P. Represented CoE at UNSW Talented Students meeting Steffen, W. Panelist at World Science Festival, Brisbane Stone, A. Led a science panel at the annual conference of the Public Relations Institute of Australia Strutton, P. Public talk to breakfast meeting of local community leaders, Sorrel, Tasmania

Roderick, M. Participant at National Youth Science forum

Steffen, W. Senior Editor, The Anthropocene Review

Roderick, M. Lecture to the Earth Science Olympiad summer school program

Walsh, K. Associate Editor, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Santoso, A. Presented at the CLIVAR Pacific panel meeting in Qingdao, China, on the 2015/16 El Niño

International Committee Memberships

Steffen, W. Panelist World Science Festival, Brisbane

Abram, N. Member of coordinator team, PAGES 2k network

Steffen, W. Climate presentation to Rural QLD Property Conference

Alexander, L. Member-at-large, IAMAS Bureau

Stone, A. Ran a media communications workshop for the ARCCSS on the dynamics of language

Alexander, L. Member of Scientific Steering Committee of the IGBP’s AIMES Project

Stone, A. Ran a media communications workshop for the ARCCSS on plant energy biology

Bindoff, N. CLIVAR Science Steering Group: Member 2014-2017

Stone, A. Ran a media and communications workshop for the ARCCSS on mathematical and statistical frontiers Webb, D. Joined I08S GO-SHIP repeat hydrography cruise into Southern/ Indian Ocean.

Editor Roles Abram, N. Co-chief Editor, Climate of the Past Abramowitz, G. Associate Editor, Journal of Hydrometeorology Dommenget, D. Associate Editor, Journal of Climate Grabowski, W. Editor, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Strutton, P. Talk at Princes Street Primary School about climate

Hogg, A. Editor, Geophysical Research Letters

Strutton, P. Talk at Mt Pleasant Elementary School, Vancouver, Canada

Jakob, C. Associate Editor, Journal of Climate

Vincent, C. ARCCSS representative at Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute careers workshop.

Karoly, D. Chief Editor, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Scientific and Community Engagement

Lane, T. Editor of Monthly Weather Review

Abram, N. Australia representative at IPCC Scoping Meeting for special report on climate change and the oceans and cryosphere

Lewis, S. Editor of Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science Pitman, A. Associate Editor, International Journal of Climatology

England, M. Chair, UNSW’s Path to Carbon Neutrality – hosted by the Grand Challenge on Climate Change

Saenko, O. Editor, Journal of Climate

Fernandes, E. Resource for Smart Schools briefing and contributor to teacher’s guide for teaching climate change in the classroom

Schofield, R. Associate Editor, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques

Lane, T. Submission to National Research Infrastructure review

Santoso, A. Associate Editor, the Journal of Climate

Sherwood, S. Editor, Environmental Research Letters

Bindoff, N. Royal Society of New Zealand: Marsden Fund Committee member for Earth Science Panel, 2014-2017 England, M. Co-chair, CLIVAR/ CliC/SCAR Southern Ocean Region Implementation Panel England, M. Member, WCRP/CLIVAR/ GEWEX Drought Interest Group Evans, J. Co-chair of the WCRP’s GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel Jakob, C. Member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Numerical Weather Prediction Centre of the Chinese Meteorological Agency Karoly, D. Member, External Advisory Board, EUCLEIA Project Karoly, D. Member, Scientific Advisory Panel, NIWA, NZ Lane, T. Council member of the International Forum of Meteorological Societies Lane, T. Member, AMS Committee on Mesoscale Processes Parry, M. Appointed as committee member of the Local Organizing Committee for the 29th Annual Conference for the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology (2017) Parry, M. Appointed as committee member of the Scientific Program Committee for the 29th Annual Conference for the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology (2017) Parry, M. Steering Committee member for the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology Student and New Researchers Network

Steffen, W. Senior Editor, Regional Environmental Change REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 83 <

Phillips, H. Member of the CLIVAR/IOC/ GOOS Indian Ocean Panel

Jakob, C. Member, Advisory Committee for Phase 5 of the Managing Climate Variability program

Phipps, S. Member, Australian Academy of Science National Committee for Quaternary Research

Santoso, A. CLIVAR Pacific Panel

Karoly, D. Board member, Tipping Point Australia

Pitman, A. Member, Monash Foundation Scholarships

Santoso, A. CLIVAR Pacific Panel member

Karoly, D. Member, Climate Change Authority

Pitman, A. Member, National Committee for Earth System Science

Schofield, R. Elected a member of the International Ozone Commission

Karoly, D. Member, Museum Victoria Research Committee

Pitman, A. National council member, AMOS

Karoly, D. Member, Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists

Schofield, R. Chair of AMOSâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Expert Group on Atmospheric and Oceanic Composition

Pitman, A. Member, WCRP-GLASS Science Steering Committee

Australian Committee Memberships Abram, N. Invited to join the National Committee for Earth System Science

King, A. Chair of AMOS Melbourne Centre

Abram, N. Member, National Committee for Antarctic Research

Lane, T. Advisory Board member, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Abram, N. Member, National Committee for Earth System Science

Lane, T. Member, AMOS Conference & Events Working Group

England, M. Member, Climate Scientists Australia

Lane, T. Awards Committee member, AMOS

Goldie, J. Member, AMOS ACT Committee

Lane, T. Past President of AMOS Phillips, H. Elected Chair of the Tasmanian Regional Centre of AMOS

>84 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Steffen, W. Member, Global Change Institute, UQ Strutton, P. Co-lead of the Bluewater and Climate Node of Australiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Integrated Marine Observing System Vincent, C. Member, AMOS 2016 Scientific Organising Committee Walsh, K. Member, BMTC Forecasting Course Advisory Committee

Key Performance Indicators Key Result Area

Research findings

Performance Measure

International, national and regional links and networks

Target 2016

Achieved 2016

Annually

Journal papers

Annually

173

Book chapters

Annually

Peer reviewed conference proceedings

Annually

80%

95.4%

Annually

Quality of research (defined as percent of the journal publications in top tier journals) Number of invited talks/papers/ keynote lectures given at major international meetings Number and nature of commentaries about the Centre’s achievements (list media releases and articles separately)

Notes

Number of research outputs

Annually Media releases

Articles

Print 86, Radio 48, Online 158, TV 18

Citation data for publications

At review

200

270 citations to date of 2016 publications 2869 citations in 2016 of 2011-2016 publications

Number of attended professional training courses for staff and postgraduate students

Annually

Number of Centre attendees at all professional training courses

Annually

226

Number of new postgraduate students working on core Centre research and supervised by Centre staff (include PhD, Masters by research and Masters by coursework). Note we do not plan a Masters by Coursework program.

Research training and professional education

Reporting Frequency

Number of new postdoctoral researchers recruited to the Centre working on core Centre research (assumes that no continuity of the centre beyond 2017) Number of new Honours students working on core Centre research and supervised by Centre staff Number of postgraduate completions and completion times, by students working on core Centre research and supervised by Centre staff

Annually Masters by coursework Masters by Research

Annually

9 Honours 2 Masters 16 PhD Total: 27

PhD

Annually

Completion time

(Average, in years)

Number of Early Career Researchers (within five years of completing PhD) working on core Centre research

Annually

Number of students mentored

Annually

10 Honours 9 Masters 96 PhD

Number of mentoring programs (this is an integrated program, split into subAnnually programs on the basis of student need)

3.75

3.83

Number of international visitors and visiting fellows (significant visits — excludes visits of less than a week).

Annually

Number of national and international workshops held/organised by the Centre

Annual

Number of visits to overseas laboratories and facilities

Annually

Examples of relevant interdisciplinary research supported by the Centre

Annually

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 85 <

Key Result Area

End-user links

Performance Measure

Reporting Frequency

Target 2016

Achieved 2016

Notes

Number of government, industry and business community briefings

Annually

Number and nature of public awareness programs

Annually

Currency of information on the Centre’s website (we expect a weekly update of the Web site in year 1, standardizing Annually to a fortnightly update in subsequent years)

>50 (content updated at least weekly)

10,000

38,433 Unique browsers 86,699 Website hits

Number of website hits

Annually

Number of public talks given by Centre Annually 50 staff Annual Cash and In-kind contributions See Financial Statements on page 89 from Collaborating Organisations ARC grants Other research income secured by Centre staff (list research income from ARC grants, other Australian competitive grants, grants from the public sector, industry and CRCs and other research income separately).

Organisational support

Number of new organisations collaborating with, or involved in, the Centre Level and quality of infrastructure provided to the Centre (note the Centre already includes all organizations with significant capacity. We do anticipate new capacity emerging, but we will be advised by the Board on the strategic advantage of partnering with new organisations. We are therefore setting these measures to reflect new significant partnerships). Breadth, balance and experience of the members of the Advisory Committee

Governance

Other Australian Competitive Grants Other Commonwealth, State and Local Government Grants Industry/Private Sector Grants

$3m

$4,837,216

$100,000

$292,240

$200,000

Annually Supercomputing time at NCI (million hours) On-line storage to serve models, tools and data (Petabytes) Key software system availability (Evo, Subversion, NCL) (percentage availability)

$8,828,002

Nil

$30,409

119

2.3 Pb (Used) 3 (Available)

90%

98%

See Page 16 for details of the Board membership

At review

Frequency, attendance and value added At review by Advisory Committee meetings

The board met twice in 2016.

Vision and usefulness of the Centre strategic plan

At review

The Centre strategic plan was approved by the Board. It is reviewed annually. This document informs Centre direction and priorities.

The adequacy of the Centre’s performance measure targets

At review

The Board assesses performance against targets. These measures will be reviewed annually.

At review

Effectiveness of the Centre in bringing researchers together to form an interactive and effective research team

Cross-institutional meetings per year PhD students mentored by staff of more than one institution PhD students spending time at non-enrolled institution Research Fellows spending time at non-enrolled institution

>86 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

>150 (predominantly via Videoconference)

Key Result Area

Governance continued

Reporting Frequency

Performance Measure

Target 2016

Achieved 2016

Recruitment and training of staff

Recruitment and training of students

(Honours, MS, PhD)

Capacity building of the Centre through International scale and outcomes linkages Establishment of national leadership through workshops and conferences Annually

Contribution to the National Research Priorities and the National Innovation Priorities

National benefit

Notes

Journal articles relevant to NIPs Projects relevant to NIPs (assumes NIPs does not change and “projects” are of a significant scale beyond the capacity of an individual researcher)

4 new centre employees 3 Associate Investigators added

174

At review

Measures of expansion of Australia’s capability in the priority area(s)

PhDs relevant to NIPs Development/ updating of significant data sets of national significance Development/ updating of significant modelling tools of national significance

ADDITITIONAL ARCCSS TARGETS

Research Findings

Review/Synthesis papers, reports, book chapters etc. Number of Cross-institutional publications (percentage of journal papers produced by the centre - the increasing percentage reflects growing connectivity of Centre Research) Number of invited talks/papers/ keynote lectures given at major international meetings

Annual

70%

83%

At Review

Demonstrated contribution of Centre participants to the 5th Assessment report of the IPCC

Engagement via Convening lead authors, lead authors and review editors Contributions via use of Centre research (e.g. via analyses, publications, tools etc.) Talks, briefings etc. on IPCC 5th Assessment Report

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 87 <

Key Result Area

Research Training and Professional Education

National Benefit

International, national and regional links and networks

Reporting Frequency

Performance Measure Establishment and delivery of a virtual graduate program Lectures delivered virtually to multiinstitutions Winter School in support of virtual graduate program Number of PhD students involved in cross-institutional activities (highlights that new PhD students will be primarily cross-institutional from Year 1) New/refined/enhanced software modules for the climate models developed and served to the community. New/Refined/updated software tools for data analysis developed and served to the community

Target 2016

Achieved 2016

At Review

Notes 3

80%

77%

Annual

Shared climate-modelling system available to the community.

At Review

Modules available to the community via shared-modelling systems

Annual

New/refined/updated data sets served to the community

Annual

Effectiveness of the Centre as the University Sector's leading contributor to the National Framework for Climate Science Acknowledged contributions to the National Framework for Climate Science (measured via Centre board and/or Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) Number of visits by overseas researchers to Centre [in person months] Number of Centre staff involved in leadership positions in major international committees/science programs

Footnotes 1. We have not focussed on conference proceedings. There will be occasional major conferences that generate proceedings that we will contribute to, but we do not intend this to be a major priority 2. For the 2016 report we define quality journals as those rated in the Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) top quartile (Q1) 3. We have been continually developing our graduate program through the leadership of the Graduate Director. This program encapsulates an annual calendar of science and computational workshops, professional development and leadership days, social activities, cross node-meetings and supervision and the launch of mentoring circles 4. This is difficult to quantify. The vast majority of the Centre’s research crosses our five research programs which themselves each combine discrete disciplines. Therefore, our research is by nature inter-disciplinary

At Review

Annually

n/a

35.2

6. This target was set unrealistically high for the latter years of the Centre’s operations as we are not seeking to, nor able to continue to grow staff numbers at this stage of the Centre lifecycle 7. This number includes our overseas partner institutions as well as labs where ARCCSS staff and students made substantial visits to during 2016 8. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report was published in 2014, therefore there was no further activity associated with the development of AR5 in 2016

>88 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

5. We have established a strong media profile, a very strong scientific awareness program and we are also very visible to federal and state governments. We continue to bring these strands together into a fully integrated public awareness program

9. The Computational Modelling System team functioned below capacity during 2016 due to maternity leave. The focus of remaining resources was put on modelling software rather than developing data analysis tools 10. The National Framework for Climate Science has been suspended. We have received advice, via our board, from the Department of Environment that the Centre should seek approval to update this KPI after a new national framework emerges.

FINANCIAL STATEMENT Executive Summary

1: Australian Research Council Funding

The Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) formally commenced operations on 1 July 2011. The Centre’s financial affairs are conducted within the established procedures, controls and delegations of the relevant universities, and as set out by the Australian Research Council (ARC). This statement provides an analysis of the income and expenditure of the Centre of Excellence. In 2016, the ARCCSS received $5,041,318 (102%) income compared to the full year budget of $4,941,121. In terms of the Centre’s expenditure, $4,937,983 (99%) was spent compared to the full year budget of $5,003,689. In 2016, personnel accounted for the highest proportion of expenditure of $3,639,834 (74%), followed by travel and annual workshop expenditure of $638,556 (13%). Overall, the Centre’s cash balance in 2016 is $103,334 and the life-to-date cash balance is $5,029,868.

Financial Management and Performance Quarterly financial reporting monitors institutional income and expenditure against the Centre-wide budget. The Centre’s Finance and Resource Officer prepares consolidated financial statements for review by the Director. The Centrewide finances are discussed at Centre Executive meetings and financial statements are tabled at Centre Board meetings. The Centre meets its reporting requirements to the ARC by submitting the annual Centre Outputs and Detailed Income and Expenditure (CODIE) report. The Centre also meets all other reporting obligations set by Partner Organisations that provide financial support.

The Centre received indexed income from the ARC of $3,504,777. This was distributed to the institutions in accordance with the inter-institutional agreement and was used for payroll, scholarships, consumables, equipment, materials, maintenance and travel.

2: Government Funding 2.1 Department of the Environment

The Department of the Environment initially committed $100,000 per annum for the first two years of the Centre’s operations. This support was subsequently renewed and is envisaged to continue for the life of the Centre. The Department invested $104,314 in ARCCSS research in 2016.

2.2 The NSW Science Leveraging Fund (SLF)

Funding is provided to the Centre via a Science Leveraging Fund grant of $500,000 that was received in 2011 and 2012. No funding was received in 2016.

2.3 NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH)

With the efforts of the OEH and ARCCSS combined, the NSW Government will ensure a significant enhancement of efforts towards climate system science research specifically relevant to NSW, whilst maintaining strong and coordinated links with the Commonwealth Government. The OEH provided $79,376 funding in 2016.

3: Collaborating Organisation Funding Cash contributions to the Centre of Excellence from the Administering Organisation and the Collaborating Organisations amounted to $1,352,851, as follows: $597,058 UNSW

2016 Income

$124,957 ANU

Cash income totalled $5,041,318 from all sources. The Centre derived its income from the ARC, the Department of the Environment and the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH), participating universities (including Collaborating Organisations) and Partner Organisations.

$119,305 U.Melb

Income is summarised by source in detail in the tables that follow.

$220,102 UTAS $291,429 Monash

4: In-kind Contributions In-kind support totalled $3,750,476 in 2016. The Centre is grateful for $2,607,961 of in-kind contributions, provided by the Administering Organisation and the Collaborating Organisations. The contributions are primarily personnel related, and consist of the apportioned salary, on-costs and burdens of faculty members and other university staff members who contribute towards the Centre. Partner Organisations provided additional in-kind contributions of $1,142,515. Again, this was mainly personnel time.

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 89 <

Organisation

In-Kind Budget

In-Kind Actual

ANU

171,247

173,161

CAWCR-Bureau of Meteorology

180,893

CAWCR-CSIRO

184,885

150,363

50,000

15,000

35,433

38,826

Department of the Environment and Energy Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hadley Centre/ Meteorological Office (UK) LMD/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

5,650

384,365

390,237

23,784

35,274

17,000

526,925

OEH

80,000

UTAS

179,456

254,950

U. Melbourne

717,438

803,071

18,800

UNSW

703,184

986,542

TOTAL

2,802,409

3,750,476

Monash University NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center National Center for Atmospheric Research National Centre for Atmospheric Science National Computational Infrastructure

2016 Expenditure In 2016 the Centre expended $4,937,983, analysed below: Equipment Costs

$23,665

0.5%

$8,942

0.2%

$253,772

5.1%

Materials and Maintenance (IT) Consumables and Events

This amount included computer software, repairs and maintenance, student fees, consumables, internal printing, consulting, entertainment, marketing, utilities, office supplies and the cost of producing the annual report. Personnel (including on-costs)

$3,639,834

73.7%

Scholarships

$362,504

7.3%

Travel and Workshop Costs

$638,556

12.9%

$10,710

0.2%

Other

2016 Income Vs Expenditure Income and Expenditure is based on cash and is derived from the institutions’ general ledgers. The Collaborating Organisations certify income and expenditure by formally acquitting all grants as at 31 December 2016. The Centre’s cash expenditure of $4,937,983 was below income of $5,041,318 by $103,334. The Centre will carry over a balance of $103,334 to 2017. The carry-over by institution is as follows: UNSW

$177,262

surplus

ANU

$109,181

surplus

U.Melb

$155,769

deficit

UTAS

$55,521

surplus

2016 Leverage

Monash

$82,861

deficit

The Centre’s 2016 cash income of $5,041,318 and in-kind support of $3,750,476 total $8,791,794, with ARC funding accounting for $3,504,777 of the total income. The Centre’s leverage of $5,287,014 equates to $1.51 of external funding and in-kind contributions for each $1.00 received from the ARC.

In summary, as at 31 December 2016, the financial position for the life of the ARCCSS after its sixth year of operation is as follows:

University of Arizona

Total Cash Income

$29,909,262

Total Expenditure

$24,916,563

Surplus carried forward to 2017 $4,992,699

>90 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

2016 Cash Income & Expenditure Actual Income

Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Australian Research Council- Centre of Excellence

3,148,827

3,269,977

3,395,785

3,498,407

3,446,192

3,504,777

3,357,349

23,621,314

University Cash Contributions

1,130,663

1,092,401

1,184,607

1,471,983

1,314,778

1,352,850

1,246,994

62,000

8,856,276

668,435

247,640

326,622

275,793

395,834

183,690

2,098,014

Total Income

4,947,925

4,610,019

4,907,014

5,246,183

5,156,804

5,041,317

4,604,343

62,000

34,575,605

Expenditure

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

TOTAL

1,001,021

2,937,425

3,467,682

3,341,937

2,829,815

3,560,360

4,421,599

2,061,475

23,621,314

People Cost

687,853

2,302,338

2,655,473

2,537,203

2,072,260

2,823,470

3,491,741

1,618,050

18,188,387

Scholarship

85,360

65,288

103,828

125,074

203,998

113,276

134,576

64,990

896,389

Non-People Cost

227,808

569,799

708,381

679,659

553,557

623,615

795,282

378,435

4,536,537

University Cash Contributions

386,466

883,841

1,030,691

1,215,515

1,270,553

1,145,354

1,794,440

1,129,415

8,856,276

People Cost

177,012

491,072

617,472

84,986

514,013

601,509

1,206,682

651,566

4,344,312

Scholarship

105,949

159,177

131,093

473,717

250,180

238,416

292,225

216,197

1,866,953

Non-People Cost

103,505

233,593

282,126

656,813

506,360

305,429

295,533

261,653

2,645,011

Others (exclude special projects)

31,729

202,171

227,502

488,089

664,141

232,269

161,345

90,767

2,098,014

People Cost

30,586

177,745

213,652

482,660

623,262

214,855

140,045

90,767

1,973,572

34,618

3,800

42,218

1,143

24,426

13,851

5,429

6,261

13,614

17,500

82,224

1,419,216

4,023,438

4,725,876

5,045,541

4,764,510

4,937,984

6,377,384

3,281,657

34,575,604

Others

Australian Research Council- Centre of Excellence

Scholarships Non-People Cost

Total Expenses

2018

TOTAL

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 91 <

2016 Cash Income & Expenditure (Year to Date December 2016) 1. 2016 Cash Income

UNSW

Australian Research Council- Centre of 1,607,288 Excellence Australian Research Council- Centre of 0 Excellence indexation distribution CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 Department of Environment (formerly known as 104,314 DIICCSRTE) Department of Trade Investment and Regional 0 NSW Office of Environment and Heritage 79,376 University Cash Contributions 597,058 Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2,388,036 Total

2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 1. 2016 Cash Income 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 1. 2016 Cash Income 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW 1. 2016 Cash Income Australian Research Council- Centre of Excellence 1. 2016 Cash Income 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure

ANU

U. Mel

U.Tas

Monash Uni

Total A$

FY Budget

% Variance

410,364

666,397

3,504,777

0 0

0 104,314

0 100,000

0% 4%

0 0 0 0 124,957 119,305 0 0 (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) 535,321 529,669

0 0 220,102 0 630,466

0 0 0 0 79,376 0 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 0 0 0 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121

0% 0% 1% 100% 2%

(Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) UNSW U. Mel ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget% % Variance (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) ANU U.Tas Monash Total A$ Total A$ FYTotal A$ UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas FY Budget % Variance 1,607,288 UNSW 410,364 ANU 410,364 U. Mel 410,364 Monash Uni 666,397 3,504,777 3,504,777 0% U.Tas Monash Uni FY Budget % Variance (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) 1. 2016 Cash Income UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Uni 0 Monash Uni Budget Variance 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 3,504,777 3,504,777 Australian Research Council- Centre of Excellence indexation distribution 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 1. 2016 Cash Income UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 666,397 3,504,777 3,504,777 3,504,777 0% 1. 2016 Cash Income UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 3,504,777 0% 1. 2016 Cash Income UNSW 0 ANU U. Mel U.Tas Total A$ Australian Research Council- Centre of Excellence indexation distribution 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 3,504,777 3,504,777 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 0 0 Monash Uni 0 0 FY Budget 0 % Variance 0% 1. 2016 Cash Income ANU U. Mel U.Tas Total A$ FY Budget Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence indexationindexation distributiondistribution UNSW 0 0% Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence 0 0 0 0 0 0 Monash Uni 0 0 3,504,777 0 0 3,504,777 0 0 % Variance 0 0% 0% Australian Research CouncilCentre ofofExcellence 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 Australian Research CouncilCentre Excellence 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 3,504,777 3,504,777 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 0 0 0% indexation distribution Department of Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) 104,314 0 0 0 0 104,314 100,000 4% Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 0% CSIRO Marine andMarine Atmospheric Research 0 0% CSIRO and Centre Atmospheric Research 00 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 3,504,777 0 00 0 00 0% 0 0% 0% Leased/Hired Equipment 0 0 000 03,504,777 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 3,504,777 3,504,777 0% Australian Research CouncilofofRegional Excellence indexation distribution 00 Australian Research CouncilCentre Excellence indexation distribution Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) 104,314 104,314 100,000 4% CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Department of Trade Investment and 0 0 0 0 0 0% AustralianDepartment Research CouncilCentre ofknown Excellence indexation distribution 0 0% Department of Environment (formerly as DIICCSRTE) 104,3140 104,314 00 00 00 104,314 100,0000 100,000 4% of Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) 0 0 0 000 08,942 0 18,000 4% Australian Research CouncilCentre Excellence indexation distribution CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 00 00 104,314 00 50% 0% CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 0 0% Materials & Maintenance (IT and lab) 8,779 0 000 163 000 0 Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) Department of Trade Investment andof Regional 104,314 104,314 100,000 4% NSW Office of Environment and Heritage 79,376 79,376 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 0 0 0 0 0% Department of and Trade Investment and Regional 0 0% Department of Trade Investment and 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 00 0 00 0 4% 0% CSIROOffice Marine Atmospheric Research 0% Department ofofEnvironment (formerly asasRegional DIICCSRTE) 104,314 104,314 100,000 Department Environment (formerly known DIICCSRTE)1,620,442 104,314 104,314 100,000 4% NSW and Heritage 79,37600 534,954 0 0 0 0 79,376 0 1% 0% Trade Investment and known Regional 0 University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 1% Department of Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) Personnel 276,367 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 104,314 0 0 0 0 104,314 100,000 4% NSW OfficeNSW ofofEnvironment and Heritage 79,376 79,376 00 79,376 0 0% Office of Environment and Heritage 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 0 79,376 0 0% 0% Department Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) 104,314 104,314 100,000 4% Department of Trade Investment and 00 00 00 Trade Investment andRegional Regional 0% University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 1% NSW Office Environment and Heritage 79,376 79,376 Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 0 0 0 100% Department of Trade Investment and Regional 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% University Cash Contributions 597,0580 597,058 124,9570 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,3440-32% 1% University Cash Contributions 1% Consumables and Events 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699000 119,305 24,518 253,772 192,162 Department Trade Investment and Regional 01,352,851 NSW Office ofofof Environment and Heritage 79,376 00 000 220,102 000 291,429 79,376 001,336,344 0% NSW Office Environment and Heritage 79,376 79,376 0% Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 0 100% University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 1% NSW Office of Environment and Heritage 79,376 79,376 0% Other Interest Distribution) 0 100% Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 1,352,851 0 0 1,336,344 0 000 0 1% 100% NSW (including Office of Environment and Heritage 79,376 79,376 0% University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 1% Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 1% Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% University Cash Interest Contributions 597,058 124,957 119,305 220,102 291,429 1,352,851 1,336,344 1% Other (including Distribution) 002,388,036 00 535,321 00 529,669 00 630,466 00 957,826 005,041,318 004,941,121 100% Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Other (including Interest Total 2% Other (including Interest Distribution) Distribution) 0 37,533 0 124,602 0 0 0 0 0 25% 100% 100% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 39,490 362,504 484,184 Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 2% Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 0 0 0 0 5,041,3180 4,941,1210 100% Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Shared 0 0 0 0 TotalEquipment/Facilities 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,4660 957,826 0 5,041,318 04,941,121 0% 2% Total 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 Monash Uni 957,826 Total A$ 5,041,318 FY Budget 4,941,121 % Variance 2% 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW 0 UNSW ANU 0 ANU U. Mel U.Tas FY Budget FY Budget % Variance Leased/Hired Equipment 0 U. Mel 0 Monash Uni 0 Total A$ 0Total A$ 0-11% 0% 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure U.Tas282,184 Monash Uni % Variance Travel Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 255,349 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Leased/Hired Equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Materials & Maintenance (IT and lab) 8,779 163 8,942 18,000 50% CIs)2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Leased/Hired EquipmentEquipment 0 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Leased/Hired 0 0 0 0 0 0 Monash Uni 0 0 Total A$ 0 0 FY Budget 0 0 % Variance 0 0% 0% 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Materials & Maintenance 8,7790 0 1630 0 0 8,942 18,0000 50% Leased/Hired Equipment (IT and lab) 0 0% Personnel 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW ANU 0 U. Mel U.Tas Total A$ % Variance Materials &Materials Maintenance (ITworkshops and lab)(IT and(Postdocs 8,779 18,770 0 Monash Uni 8,942 18,000 -7% 50% & Maintenance lab) 8,779 0163 163 0 000 0 00 FY Budget 8,942 50% Travel - Conferences and 105,842 31,904 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 Leased/Hired Equipment 00 00 00 00 00 18,000-32% 0% Leased/Hired Equipment 0% Materials & Maintenance (IT and lab) Personnel 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% 8,779 163 8,942 18,000 50% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 Leased/Hired Equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Personnel 1,620,44201,620,442 276,3670 276,367 534,9540 534,954 357,5310 357,531 850,5410 850,541 3,639,83403,639,834 3,676,38803,676,388 1% 1% andMaterials students) Leased/Hired Equipment (IT 0% &Personnel Maintenance 8,779 0 163 0 0 8,942 18,000 50% Materials &Equipment Maintenance (ITand andlab) lab) 8,779 163 8,942 18,000 50% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Personnel 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% Purchased 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Materials & Maintenance (IT and lab) 8,779 179,975 163 23,326 8,942 253,772 18,000 192,162 50% Consumables 179,975 16,25300 16,253 23,326 9,69900 24,51800 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Consumables 9,699 -32% Materials &Equipment Maintenance (IT and lab) 8,779 163 8,942 18,000 50% Personnel 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% Personnel 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% Purchased 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% Travel New staff relocation expenses 0 8,536 8,940 3,410 0 20,887 6,652 -214% PersonnelPurchased 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% Purchased EquipmentEquipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 23,665 16,170 16,170 -46% 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 -46% Personnel 1,620,442 276,367 534,954 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 3,676,388 1% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% Travel - Regular meetings of Centre staff 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 61% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% Consumables 179,975 16,253 23,326 9,699 24,518 253,772 192,162 -32% Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% Travel Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 12,591 0 0% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58,233 0 0 -40% 025% 0% Travel - Visitor travel to the Centre 44,684 2,947 16,700 4,492 81,414 Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% (Dir, COO, CIs) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Travel Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 -7% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 41,351 37,533 42,148 124,602 39,490 70,497 362,504 282,184 484,184 255,349 25% Travel - Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, (Dir, CIs) COO, CIs) 97,623 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% Travel - Conferences and workshops -11% Scholarship 127,680 33,199 37,533 124,602 39,490 362,504 484,184 25% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Travel Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 -7% (Dir, COO, CIs) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% New to staff relocation 8,536 8,940 3,410 20,887 6,652 -214% Travel - Visits nodes (Dir,expenses COO, CIs) and 6,447 1,386 0 0 31,904 790 18,770 438 8,351 25,079 Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 15,894 0 47,444 0 219,853 0% Travel - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs students) 105,84200 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,96800 67% -7% Travel - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) 205,968 -7% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0% Travel - -Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% Travel Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% New staff relocation expenses 0 8,5360 8,940 3,4100 00 20,8870 6,652 -214% (Postdocs and 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 -7% Regular meetings of Centre staff 10,699 1,583 8750 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 61% Travel Conferences and workshops COO, CIs) students) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% Travel - --New staff expenses(Dir, 0 8,536 8,940 3,410 0 3,410 0 20,887 6,652 -24% -214% Travel - Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 0 1,530 10,617 8,530 Travel - relocation New staff relocation expenses 0 8,536 8,940 0 20,887 6,652 Travel Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) 97,623 41,351 42,148 30,565 70,497 282,184 255,349 -11% Travel Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 -7% (Postdocs and and students) students) 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 -7% -214% Regular meetings ofCentre Centre staff 10,6990 1,583 875 1,031 1,0620 15,250 38,716 61% New staff relocation expenses 8,536 8,940 3,410 20,887 6,652 -214% Travel -- Visitor travel to the 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Travel Conferences and workshops (Postdocs 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 205,968 -7% Travel Regular meetings of Centre staff 10,699 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 15,250 38,716 38,71661% Travel - relocation Regular meetings of(Postdocs Centre staff 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 61% Travel-- -New Conferences and workshops and students) 105,842 31,904 18,770 15,894 47,444 219,853 -7% Other 0 -22 0 10,733 10,710 18,258 205,968 41% -214% Travel staff expenses 00 8,536 8,940 3,410 00 20,887 6,652 New staff relocation expenses 8,536 8,940 3,410 20,887 6,652 -214% Visitor to(Dir, the 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Regular meetings ofCentre Centre staff 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 61% Travel Visits totravel nodes COO, CIs) 6,447 1,386 0 790 438 8,351 25,079 67% Travel- --Visitor New staff relocation expenses 8,536 8,940 3,410 20,887 6,652 58,233 -214% Travel travel to the Centre 44,68400 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,49200 81,414 58,233 -40% Travel - Visitor travel to the Centre 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 -40% Travel- -Regular New staff relocation expenses 8,536 8,940 3,410 20,887 6,652 -214% Travel meetings ofofCentre staff 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 61% Regular meetings Centre staff 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 61% (Dir, COO, CIs) 6,447 1,386 79 438 8,351 25,079 67% Visitor travel to the Centre 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Travel Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 0 1,530 0 10,617 8,530 -24% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Travel- -Visits Regular meetings of Centre 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 25,07967% 61% Travel to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs)staff 6,447 1,386 0 438 8,351 25,079 Travel - Visits to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs) 6,447 1,386 0 79 79 438 8,351 67% Travel- Visitor Regular meetings of Centre staff 10,699 1,583 875 1,031 1,062 15,250 38,716 61% Travel travel totothe Centre 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Visitor travel the Centre 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Travel Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 1,530 10,617 8,530 -24% (Dir, COO, CIs) 6,447 1,386 79 438 8,351 25,079 67% Other 0 -22 0 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 41% Travel- --Visits Visitor to(Postdocs thenodes Centre 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Travel totravel nodes and students) 5,950 3,138 0 1,530 0 10,617 8,530 -24% Travel -nodes Visits to (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 0 79 1,530 0 10,617 8,530 -24% Visitor to theCOO, Centre 44,684 2,947 12,591 16,700 4,492 81,414 58,233 -40% Travel - -Visits tototravel nodes (Dir, CIs) 6,447 1,386 00 438 8,351 25,079 67% Travel Visits (Dir, COO, CIs) 6,447 1,386 79 438 8,351 25,079 67% Other 0 -22 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 41% (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 1,530 10,617 8,530 -24% Travel - Visits to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs) 6,447 1,386 438 8,351 25,079 18,25841% 67% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Other 0 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 Other 0-22 U.Tas -22 000 0 79 0 FY 10,710 41% (Dir, COO,and CIs)students) 6,447 1,386 79 10,733 8,351 25,079 67% Travel totonodes (Postdocs 5,950 3,138 1,530 0A$ 10,617 8,530 -24% Travel Visits (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 0 1,530 0 10,617 8,530 -24% 3. Summary Income UNSW ANU Total438 % Other- --Visits -22 10,733 10,710 18,258 41% Travel Visits 2016 to nodes nodes (PostdocsVs. and Expenditure students) 5,9500U. Mel 3,138 0 Monash 1,530 0 10,617 8,530 -24% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Travel Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students) 5,950 3,138 1,530 10,617 8,530 -24% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Other 0 -22 0 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 41% Other 0 -22 0 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 41% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% / Carry Uni Budget Variance 41% Other 0 -22 0 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 Total Over 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Other 0 -22 0 10,733 0 10,710 18,258 41% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Total 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 Monash Uni 1,040,687 Total A$ 4,937,983 FY Budget 5,003,689 % Variance 1% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Total Income 2,388,036 UNSW 535,321 ANU 529,669 U. Mel 630,466 Monash Uni 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Income 2,388,036 685,438 535,321 574,945 529,669 1,040,687 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 1% 2% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 4,937,983 5,003,689 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 529,669 630,466 957,826 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 4,941,121 2% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 630,466 5,041,318 2% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Monash Uni Total A$ FY Budget % Variance Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Income less Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 Monash Uni -82,861 103,334 FY Budget -62,568 % Variance 265% 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU U. Mel U.Tas Total A$ Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689265% 1% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 2% 1% Income less Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Income less Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 109,181 529,669 -155,769 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 55,521 ‐82,861 -82,861 103,334 103,334 -62,568 -62,568 265% Income lessIncome Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% less Expenditure 265% Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 630,466 957,826 5,041,318 4,941,121 2% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Income less Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 5,003,689 1% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 ‐82,861 4,937,983 103,334 -62,568 265% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 109,181 685,438 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 1% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) ‐155,769 ‐82,861 Income less Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Income less 177,262 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 103,334 -62,568 265% Income less Expenditure -155,769 ‐155,769 -82,861 ‐82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over toExpenditure 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262-155,769 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 ‐82,861 Income less Expenditure 177,262 109,181 -155,769 55,521 -82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 ‐82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 ‐82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 ‐82,861 103,334 -62,568 265% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 55,521 ‐82,861 103,334 -62,568 265%

INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY BY SOURCE SOURCE INCOME INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME INCOME BY BY SOURCE SOURCE

Australian Research Council-

EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE EXPENDITURE BY BY PURPOSE PURPOSE Equipment EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSELeased/Hired EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE Leased/Hired Equipment Leased/Hired Equipment Leased/Hired Equipment EXPENDITURE BY EXPENDITURE BYPURPOSE PURPOSE Leased/Hired Equipment EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE BY BY PURPOSE PURPOSE Leased/Hired Equipment Leased/Hired Equipment (IT Materials & Maintenance

Centre of Excellence Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research CouncilAustralian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence Centre of Excellence Centre of Research Excellence Australian Australian ResearchCouncilCouncilAustralian Research CouncilCentre CentreofofExcellence Excellence indexation Australian Research CouncilCentre of Research Excellence Australian CouncilAustralian Research Councildistribution Centre of Excellence indexation Australian Research indexation CouncilCentre of Excellence Centre of Excellence indexation distribution Centre Marine of Research Excellence indexation Australian CouncilAustralian Research CouncilCSIRO and Atmospheric distribution distribution Australian Research Councildistribution Centre of Excellence indexation Centre of Excellence indexation Research Australian Research CouncilCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric CentreMarine of Excellence indexation CSIRO and Marine Atmospheric CSIRO and Atmospheric distribution distribution Centre Marine of Excellence indexation Research CSIRO and Atmospheric distribution Research Research distribution Research CSIRO and Atmospheric CSIROMarine Marine and Atmospheric Department of Environment CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Research (formerly known asAtmospheric DIICCSRTE) CSIRO Marine Department ofand Environment Research Department of Environment Department of Environment Research known (formerly as DIICCSRTE) Department of Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) Department ofofEnvironment Environment Department Trade Department of Environment (formerly as (formerlyknown known asDIICCSRTE) DIICCSRTE) Investment and Regional Environment Department of Trade (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) Department of Trade Department of Trade (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) Investment and Regional Department of Regional Trade Investment and Investment and Regional Investment of and Regional Department Department ofTrade Trade Department of Trade Investment and Investment and Regional Department of Regional Trade Investment and Regional Investment and Regional

>92 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

Leased/Hired Equipment and lab) & Maintenance Leased/Hired Equipment (IT Materials Materials &Materials Maintenance (IT & Maintenance (IT and lab) Materials Maintenance (IT and lab) &and lab) and lab) &&Maintenance Materials Materials Maintenance(IT (IT Personnel Materials & Maintenance (IT and lab) and lab) & Maintenance (IT Materials Personnel and lab) Personnel and lab) Personnel Personnel Personnel Personnel Consumables and Events Personnel Personnel Consumables and Events Consumables and Events and Events Consumables Consumables and Events Consumables and Consumables andEvents Events Purchased Equipment Consumables and Events Consumables and Events Purchased Equipment Purchased Equipment Purchased Equipment Purchased Equipment Purchased PurchasedEquipment Equipment Scholarship Purchased Equipment Purchased Equipment Scholarship Scholarship Scholarship Scholarship Scholarship Scholarship Scholarship Scholarship

2016 Cash Income & Expenditure AFFILIATED PROJECTS (Year to Date December 2016) 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) (Year‐To‐Date Dec 2016) 1. 2016 Cash Income

UNSW

1. 2016 Cash Income 1. 2016 Cash Income

UNSW

ANU

U. Mel UNSW

LTD

Budget Variance U.Tas U. Mel Monash Uni Total A$ FY BudgetTotal A$ % Variance ANU U.Tas Monash Uni FY Budget

CSIRO 625,909 625,909 0% Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence 1,607,288 410,364 410,364 410,364 410,364 410,364 666,397 3,504,777 666,397 3,504,777 Australian Research Council- Centre of Excellence 1,607,288 410,364 3,504,777 0% 3,504,777 Australian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Australian Research Council-indexation Centre of distribution Excellence indexation distribution 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 Total 625,909 625,909 0% Department of Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) 0 104,314 0 0 0 104,314 100,000 Department of Environment (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) 104,314 0 0 0 0 104,314 4% 100,000 Department of Trade Investment Regional 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Departmentand of Trade Investment and Regional 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 NSW Office of Environment and Heritage 79,376 0 79,376 0 0% 79,376 0 79,376 0% NSW Office ofExpenditure Environment and Heritage 0 0 0 0 0 2. 2016 Cash UNSW0 LTD University Cash Contributions 597,058 124,957 597,058 119,305 124,957 220,102 119,305 291,429 220,102 1,352,851 291,429 1,336,344 University Cash Contributions 1,352,851 1% 1,336,344 Budget Variance Other (including Interest Distribution) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other (including Interest Distribution)(Life-To-Date Dec 2016) 0 0 0 0 0 0100% 0

016 Cash Income & Expenditure Purchased Equipment & Maintenance

FFILIATED Total PROJECTS Total Personnel 2013-2016 Cash Income

Consumables and Events

UNSW

7,688

5,238

% Variance 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 100%

2,388,036 535,321 529,669 535,321 630,466 529,669 957,826 630,466 5,041,318 957,826 4,941,121 2,388,036 5,041,318 2% 4,941,121 418,472 418,472 0% LTD Budget % Variance

IRO 625,909 625,909 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure 2. 2016 Cash Expenditure Travel - Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) UNSW

0% ANU

U. Mel ANU U.Tas U. Mel Total A$ FY BudgetTotal A$ % Variance UNSW U.Tas Monash Uni FY Budget 28,523 28,523 Monash Uni 0%

% Variance

Leased/Hired Equipment 0 00 00 0 0 0 Leased/Hired Equipment 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0% 0 Travel - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) 2016 Cash Income & Expenditure Dec 2016)0 otal 625,909(Life-To-Date 625,909 0% Materials & Maintenance (IT and&lab) 8,779 0 8,779 163 0 0 18,000 Materials Maintenance (IT and lab) 0 163 08,942 0 8,942 50% 18,000 AFFILIATED PROJECTS Travel - New staff relocation expenses 0% 3,639,834 3,676,388 Personnel 276,367 534,9540276,367 357,5310534,954 850,541 Personnel 1,620,442 357,531 850,541 3,639,834 1% 3,676,388 1. 2013-2016 Cash Income UNSW 1,620,442 LTD Budget % Variance Consumables Travel 179,975 16,253 23,3260 16,2539,6990 23,326 24,518 253,772 24,518 192,162 253,772 -32% 192,162 - Regular meetings of Centre staff 0% 9,699 CSIRO Consumables 625,909 2013-2016 Cash Expenditure UNSW LTD Budget 625,909 % Variance 0% 179,975 Purchased Equipment 2,652 9,499 6,138 3,171 2,205 23,665 16,170 -46% Purchased 2,652 2,205 23,665 16,170 Travel - VisitorEquipment travel to the Centre 0 9,499 0 6,138 0% 3,171 urchased Equipment & Maintenance 7,688 7,688127,680 0%33,199 127,680 Scholarship 37,533 33,199 124,602 37,533 39,490 124,602 362,504 39,490 484,184 362,504 25% 484,184 Scholarship Total 625,909 625,909 0% Travel Visits to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs) 0 0 0% rsonnel 418,472 418,472 0% Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shared Equipment/Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 Travel - Conferences and COO, CIs) 42,1480 41,351 30,5650 42,148 70,497 282,184 70,497 255,349 282,184 -11% 255,349 onsumables 5,238 5,23897,623 0%41,351 97,623 Travel -workshops Visits to (Dir, nodes (Postdocs students) 0%30,565 Travel - Conferences and workshopsand (Dir, COO, CIs) - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs students) 105,842 31,904 105,842 18,770 31,904 15,894 18,770 47,444 15,894 205,968 219,853 -7% 205,968 avelTravel - Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) 28,523 28,523 Travel - Conferences andand workshops (Postdocs andUNSW students) 2. 2013-2016 Cash Expenditure LTD Budget % 0% Variance Other 0 0 0% 219,853 47,444 - New staff relocation expenses 0 0 3,410 20,887 avelTravel - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) 0 0 7,688 0% 8,536 Travel - New relocation expenses 08,940 8,5363,410 8,940 06,652 20,887-214% 6,652 Purchased Equipment &staff Maintenance 7,688 0% Regular meetings of Centre staff 15,250 1,062 38,716 15,250 61% 38,716 avelTravel - New- staff relocation expenses 0 418,472 010,699 0% 1,583 Travel - Regular meetings of Centre staff 8751,062 1,031 Personnel 418,472 0% 10,699 875 1,5831,031 - Visitor travel to the Centre 12,591 2,947 16,700 12,5914,492 81,414 4,492 58,233 81,414 -40% 58,233 avelTravel - Regular meetings of Centre staff travel to the Centre 0 0% 2,947 Consumables 5,238 044,684 5,238 0% 44,684 Total 459,921 459,921 0%16,700 Travel - Visitor Conferences and (Dir,COO, COO,CIs) CIs) 28,523 0 6,447 28,523 0% - Visits toTravel nodes (Dir, COO, CIs) 0 1,386 79 25,079 8,351 67% 25,079 avelTravel - Visitor travel to the- Travel Centre 0 0% 1,386 - Visits toworkshops nodes (Dir, 6,447 0 438 798,351 438 Conferences andtoworkshops (Postdocsand and students) 0 0 5,9500 0% toTravel nodes (Postdocs and students) 0 3,1381,530 0 1,530 10,617 avelTravel - Visits- Visits to nodes (Dir,- Travel COO, CIs) 0% 3,138 - Visits nodes (Postdocs students) 0 5,950 0 08,530 10,617 -24% 8,530 Travel New staff relocation expenses 0 0 0% Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry LTD 0 0 10,733 0%10,733 10,710 18,258 avelOther - Visits to nodes3. (Postdocs 0 0 Over 0% -22 UNSW Other and students) 0 -22 0 0 10,710 41% 18,258 Travel - Regular meetings of Centre staff 0 0 0% Budget Variance herTotal 0 0 0% 426,140 685,438 426,140 574,945 685,438 1,040,687 4,937,983 5,003,689 Travel - Total Visitor travel to the Centre 0 2,210,774 0 0% 2,210,774 574,945 1,040,687 4,937,983 1% 5,003,689 Travel to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs) 0 0 Total- Visits Income 625,909 625,909 0% otal 459,921 459,921 0% 0%

0% 50% 1% -32% -46% 25% 0% -11% -7% -214% 61% -40% 67% -24% 41%

Travel - Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students) Total Expenditure Other

0 0

0% 0%

165,988

459,921

3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW ANU UNSW U. Mel ANU U.Tas U. Mel Monash UniU.Tas Total A$ FY BudgetTotal A$ % Variance 3. Summary 2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over Monash Uni FY Budget % Variance Income less Expenditure 165,988 165,988 0% Total 459,921 459,921 0% Summary 2013-2016 Income Vs. Expenditure / Carry Over UNSW LTD Budget % Variance Total Income 2,388,036 535,321 529,669 535,321 630,466 529,669 957,826 630,466 5,041,318 957,826 4,941,121 Total Income 2,388,036 5,041,318 2% 4,941,121 2% Total Expenditure 2,210,774 426,140 685,438 426,140 574,945 685,438 1,040,687 574,945 4,937,983 5,003,689 Total Expenditure 2,210,774 1,040,687 4,937,983 1% 5,003,689 1% tal Income 625,909 625,909 0% Income less Expenditure 3.Carry Summary 2013-2016 Income surplus Vs. Expenditure / Carry459,921 Over UNSW LTD Budget % 0% Variance 177,262 109,181 177,262 -155,769 109,181 55,521-155,769 -82,861 103,334 -82,861 -62,568 103,334265% -62,568 over toExpenditure 2017 / (deficit) 165,988 165,988 0%55,521 Income less 265% tal Expenditure 459,921 come less Expenditure 165,988 625,909 165,988 0% Total Income 625,909 0% 177,262 Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 177,262 109,181 ‐155,769 109,181 55,521‐155,769 ‐82,861 55,521 103,334 ‐82,861 -62,568 103,334265% -62,568 Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 265% Total Expenditure 459,921 459,921 0% rry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit) 165,988 165,988 0% Income less Expenditure 165,988 165,988 0% Carry over to 2017 surplus / (deficit)

INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY SOURCE INCOME BY SOURCE

EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE BY PURPOSE EXPENDITURE Purchased Equipment & Maintenance EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE Leased/Hired Equipment Leased/Hired Equipment Purchased Equipment & Maintenance EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE

Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence Centre of Excellence

Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research CouncilCentre of Excellence indexation Centre of Excellence indexation distribution distribution CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Research CSIRO Department of Environment Department of Environment CSIRO (formerly known as DIICCSRTE) (formerly known as DIICCSRTE)

Department of Trade Department of Trade Investment and RegionalInvestment and Regional

Personnel

Materials & MaintenanceMaterials (IT Consumables and Events & Maintenance (IT Consumables and Events and lab) and lab)

- Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) TravelTravel - Conferences and workshops (Dir, COO, CIs) Personnel Personnel TravelTravel - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs and students) and students) - Conferences and workshops (Postdocs

Consumables andrelocation EventsConsumables Travel - New staff expenses and Events Travel - New staff relocation expenses Travel - Regular meetings of Centre staff

Travel - Regular meetings of Centre staff Purchased Equipment Purchased Equipment Travel - Visitor travel to the Centre

Travel - Visitor travel to the Centre

Travel - Visits to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs)

Scholarship Scholarship Travel - Visits to nodes (Dir, COO, CIs) Travel - Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students)

OtherTravel - Visits to nodes (Postdocs and students)

Summary Cash Income/Expenditure Life-To-Date (2016 Affiliated Projects)

Other

In summary, as at 31 December 2016, the financial position for the life of the ARCCSS Affiliated Projects after their sixth year of operation is as follows: Total Cash Income

$625,909

Total Expenditure

$459,921

Surplus carried forward to 2017

$165,988

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 93 <

>94 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science REPORT 2016

REPORT 2016 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science 95 <

1000

L 992 1008

1016

1024

100E

nal Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre

1017 1008

1000

120E MSL Prognosis (hPa)

d: 00 UTC Fri, 10 February 2017 (10AM EST, 11AM EDT