THE LAND — APRIL 2/APRIL 9, 2021
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
PAGE 19
MARKETING
Grain Outlook Mexico’s corn crop could boost U.S. exports
Livestock Angles Covid decline should help livestock prices
up cattle are now disappearThe following marketing cast — and we’re just seven As we approach the end of ing and feedlots are closer to analysis is for the week endmonths into the marketing March and move into the normal numbers on feed ing March 26. year! month of April, the livestock before the Covid crisis. Cattle CORN — A drought of news Of total commitments, we markets have had a good on feed numbers have been this week. A weak start to the have shipped 1.3 billion month as prices have moved declining over the past sevweek wasn’t the end of the bushels or 50 percent of the higher to levels not seen in eral months which has helped uptrend in corn, but it was forecast compared to an quite a while. With the Covid turn the corner and improved challenged with some lower average of 42 percent infections declining and the prices for finished cattle. prices later in the week. shipped. These totals should lockdown loosening, restauJOE TEALE The replacement market Funds lightened up a portion PHYLLIS NYSTROM lead to the USDA raising rants are reopening — which Broker CHS H edging Inc. has also improved since those has increased the demand for of their long positions ahead corn exports 100-200 million Great Plains Commodity March 2020 lows to near the S t. Paul meat products. The outlook of the March 31 Prospective bushels on the April World Afton, Minn. levels they collapsed from. As Plantings and Grain Stocks Agriculture Supply and appears to be improving. The we look ahead, the outlook caveat to this is because of as of March 1 reports. Demand Estimates report. appears to be positive but guarded; the unemployment problem, demand Technically, the market was bent again, The only export sale announcement because a lot will depend on an improvfrom this point forward will likely but not broken with further consolida- this week was 4.4 million bushels to tion in the May contract from $5.30 to Japan in routine business. China has decline until the economy rebounds to ing economy which will have a direct $5.60 per bushel. This week’s May officially bought 23.3 mmt of U.S. corn. better levels. All livestock markets at influence on demand for product. The range was $5.41.5 - $5.58.75 per bush- Private estimates for China’s corn this writing were either overbought or weeks ahead will be important as to el. December corn also moved in a side- imports this year are increasing to approaching that condition. This would which direction cattle prices will take ways pattern as it edged toward sup- over 30 mmt with recent Ukrainian advise caution at this juncture; but into the summer months. port in the low $4.60’s per bushel. A purchases and assuming 2-3 mmt of does not mean higher levels can’t be The hog market has had an impresfirmer U.S. dollar, retreating energy the unknown sales in the United attained. sive rally over the past several months. prices, and weak wheat prices contrib- States will go to China. New crop sales Cattle prices have continued to Hog numbers have been reduced uted to limit the upside in corn. this week were 5.7 million bushels, improve since their lows established in because of the severe cold weather Argentina’s corn harvest was 7 per- bringing total new crop sales to 76.4 March of 2020. This has been mainly back in February which aided the cent complete in the central and south- million bushels and running just due to the fact that the market got strong market in the past two months. ern regions as of March 25, according ahead of last year’s 68.5 million on the overdone on the downside from the Couple this with a good export marscare of Covid virus. This caused the ket and prices moved to levels not to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. books by this date. They left their production forecast Weekly ethanol production unex- lockdown of people in their homes and seen since 2014. unchanged at 45 million metric tons. pectedly pulled back after three weeks the closure of businesses which obviCurrently, the market is extremely The recent rain was beneficial in help- of increases. This week’s production ously hurt demand for beef. As things overbought and could be subject to a ing to stabilize Argentina’s crop. was down 49,000 barrels per day to have relaxed, demand for beef has once correction. However, this maybe short again picked up. As a result, the backed- lived as the latest U.S. Department of Argentine farmer selling has been slow See NYSTROM, pg. 20 with 19.6 mmt sold vs. 21.1 mmt last Agriculture Hogs and Pigs report year when the crop was 51 mmt. released March 25 was friendly due to the reduced numbers. Brazil is finishing up their safrinha corn planting. With the later than norOne noticeable condition is as the corn/change* soybeans/change* mal safrinha corn planting this year pork cutout has risen, the movement Stewartville $4.94 -.15 $13.09 -.53 and pollination occurring in the heat of of products has slowly decreased. This Edgerton $5.27 .00 $13.65 -.23 summer, Brazil’s weather will continue could be signaling a slowly diminishto be a topic of conversation. ing demand for pork because of higher Jackson $5.21 -.09 $13.27 -.52 prices. The next few weeks should Janesville $5.29 -.04 $13.24 -.40 Weekly export sales were exceptiongive a signal as to which direction the Cannon Falls $5.11 -.01 $13.41 -.25 ally high, but within expectations, with hog market will take into the summer Sleepy Eye $5.11 -.15 $13.27 -.56 the huge Chinese purchases during the months. v reporting period. Sales were 176.4 mil Average: $5.16 $13.32 lion bushels to bring total commitments to 2.558 billion bushels. This is Year Ago Average: $3.00 $8.35 closing in on the U.S. Department of Grain prices are effective cash close on March 30. Agriculture’s export forecast of 2.6 bil*Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. lion bushels or 98 percent of the fore-
Cash Grain Markets
Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.
