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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — APRIL 2/APRIL 9, 2021
Crop estimates spell higher feed costs for dairy farmers This column was written for the marketSoybeans were estimated at 87.6 miling week ending April 2. lion acres, up 5 percent from last year. The figures were less than expected for Dairy farmers will see a little more in both crops, considering the prices they’re their milk check. The U.S. Department of bringing. Agriculture announced the March Federal order Class III price at $16.15 per hunCotton planted area was estimated at dredweight. This is up 40 cents from 12 million acres, down less than 1 perFebruary, a dime below March 2020, but cent. the highest Class III price since The March 31 Daily Dairy Report MIELKE MARKET November 2020. The three-month average points out, “The next couple of months WEEKLY stands at $15.98, down from $16.77 at will determine whether farmers stick to this time a year ago and compares to By Lee Mielke their planting intentions. Last year’s $14.30 in 2019. Prospective Plantings report showed April 1’s Class III futures settlefarmers intended to plant 97 million ments portended an April price at acres of corn, but then the rains $17.50; May, $18.45; June, $18.61; July, $18.64; came. By June’s Acreage report, farmers had planted August, $18.65; September, $18.74; October, $18.64; only 92 million acres to corn.” November, $18.34; and December at $17.97. Those The second USDA report was Grain Stocks which prices, added to the already announced Class IIIs, showed shrinking supplies. March 1 corn totaled would result in a 2021 average of $17.79, down from 7.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from March 1, $18.16 in 2020, and compares to $16.96 in 2019. 2020. The December 2020 to February 2021 period The March Class IV price is $14.18 per cwt., up 99 indicated disappearance at 3.59 billion bushels, comcents from February, 69 cents below a year ago, and pared with 3.38 billion during the same period last the highest Class IV since March 2020. year. Dairy farmers will need the extra cash to cover Soybeans totaled 1.56 billion bushels, down 31 perrising feed costs. We got some insight on that in two cent from 2020. Disappearance for the December USDA reports this week. First, was the Prospective 2020 to February 2021 quarter totaled 1.38 billion Plantings report which showed 2021 corn plantings bushels, up a hefty 39 percent from the same period at an estimated 91.1 million acres, up less than 1 a year earlier. percent, or an increase of just 325,000 acres from a n year ago.
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Ryberg optimistic for 2021 season RYBERG, from pg. 15 but what we get is a measure of the biological activity of your soils. And this varies from soil type to soil type, plus drainage considerations, and we’re learning crop rotations and weed control also impact these scores. We’re moving in the right direction — that’s all that really matters. I don’t know if ‘ultimate scores’ are an eventuality. Ryberg is pleased with the organic matter content of his farm’s soils. “Improving somewhat … we’re mostly in the high 5’s and 6’s. Plus some peat soils in the 15-plus category. There’s a continual message for us farmers to be increasing the organic matter of our soils. We were at relatively high scores already so we’re very pleased with the Haney test scores we’re seeing each year.” Ryberg also employs variable nitrogen application rates for his crops. “Our fields are mapped and we collect yield data on a field-by-field basis. So we do some ‘spoon feeding’ our corn — especially those fields on continuous corn which get upwards of 220 pounds actual nitrogen. We’ve proven we can raise 225-230 bushel yields, so we try to feed according to appetite. On soybeans we’ve cut back to about 160 pounds.
You’ll recall February milk output was up 2 percent from February 2020, after adjusting for Leap Day. The Dairy Products report shows where the milk went. Cheese output totaled 1.04 billion pounds, down 8.1 percent from January, but 4.7 percent above February 2020 (when adjusted for the Leap Day). Output for the first two months of 2021 totaled 2.18 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from 2020. Italian-type cheese totaled 444.3 million pounds, down 7.6 percent from January but 2.4 percent above a year ago. Year-to-date, Italian was at 925.3 million pounds, down 0.9 percent. American-type cheese totaled 425.4 million pounds, down 10.3 percent from January, but 5.2 percent above a year ago. Year-to-date, American hit 899.7 million pounds, up 5.1 percent. Mozzarella output, at 347.5 million pounds, was up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Year-to-date, mozzarella was at 722.4 million pounds, down 1.7 percent from 2019. Cheddar output, the cheese traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, fell to 301.6 million pounds. This is down 45.3 million pounds or 13.1 percent from the January level which was revised up 9.3 million, but was 9.6 million pounds or 3.3 percent above a year ago. Year-to-date, cheddar is at 648.5 million pounds, up 4.3 percent from 2019. Churns produced 185.6 million pounds of butter. This is down 24 million pounds or 11.5 percent from January’s total which was revised up 2.7 million pounds, and was up 4 million pounds or 2.2 percent above a year ago, when adjusted. Butter output for the first two months totaled 395.3 million pounds, up 3.6 percent from 2020. Yogurt production totaled 381.7 million pounds, up 5.4 percent from a year ago, with the year-to-date total at 767.3 million pounds, up 6.1 percent. Dry whey totaled 77.0 million pounds, down 7 million or 8.3 percent from January, but 3.1 million or 4.2 percent above a year ago, with year-to-date at 161 million pounds, up 0.2 percent. Dry whey stocks grew to 70.4 million pounds, up 4.5 percent from January, but 5.5 percent below those a year ago. Nonfat dry milk output slipped to 186.3 million pounds, down 11.7 million pounds or 5.9 percent from January, but 32.7 million or 21.2 percent above a year ago. Powder production year-to-date stands at 384.3 million pounds, up 14.6 percent from 2020. Stocks, at 345.6 million pounds, were up 40.6 million pounds or 13.3 percent from January and a bulging 27.3 million pounds or 8.6 percent above a year ago. Shipping issues, including blockage of the Suez Canal, likely backed up exports. Skim milk powder production dropped to 29.6 million pounds, down 6.4 million pounds or 17.8 per-
Commodity prices are strong. China continues a major buyer of U.S. farm production — be that corn, soybeans, soybean oil, now ethanol fuels and even pork and beef are getting lots of China buyers too. I asked Ryberg for his predictions for the upcoming crop year. “Right now we’re pretty optimistic,” he said. “Soil moistures are looking good. We’re hoping to get an early start. If Mother Nature cooperates with us throughout the growing season, 2021 could be a good one.” With your increasing soil health, are you also considering boosting planting rates of corn, and even soybeans? “We’ve done a little with both crops,” explained Ryberg. “We don’t have much variability in our soils … pretty much flat and black on all our crop land. On seed genetics, we get at least a couple years data before making changes in our corn genetics, even our soybeans. In fact, with good genetics, it’s usually three to four years before a significant change to new pedigrees.” So the bottom line for Ryberg Farms: Over the past six years they’re averaging $70 to $80 per acre reductions in total production costs. In simple farm jargon, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!” v See MIELKE, pg. 18
