Mielke Market Weekly

This column was written for the market- Soybeans were estimated at 87.6 miling week ending April 2. lion acres, up 5 percent from last year. Dairy farmers will see a little more in their milk check. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the March Federal The figures were less than expected for both crops, considering the prices they’re bringing. order Class III price at $16.15 per hun- Cotton planted area was estimated at dredweight. This is up 40 cents from 12 million acres, down less than 1 perFebruary, a dime below March 2020, but cent. the highest Class III price since November 2020. The three-month average stands at $15.98, down from $16.77 at this time a year ago and compares to $14.30 in 2019. MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY By Lee Mielke The March 31 Daily Dairy Report points out, “The next couple of months will determine whether farmers stick to their planting intentions. Last year’s Prospective Plantings report showed April 1’s Class III futures settlements portended an April price at MARKETING farmers intended to plant 97 million acres of corn, but then the rains $17.50; May, $18.45; June, $18.61; July, $18.64; came. By June’s Acreage report, farmers had planted August, $18.65; September, $18.74; October, $18.64; only 92 million acres to corn.” November, $18.34; and December at $17.97. Those prices, added to the already announced Class IIIs, would result in a 2021 average of $17.79, down from $18.16 in 2020, and compares to $16.96 in 2019. The second USDA report was Grain Stocks which showed shrinking supplies. March 1 corn totaled 7.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from March 1, 2020. The December 2020 to February 2021 period

The March Class IV price is $14.18 per cwt., up 99 indicated disappearance at 3.59 billion bushels, comcents from February, 69 cents below a year ago, and pared with 3.38 billion during the same period last the highest Class IV since March 2020. year.

Dairy farmers will need the extra cash to cover Soybeans totaled 1.56 billion bushels, down 31 perrising feed costs. We got some insight on that in two cent from 2020. Disappearance for the December USDA reports this week. First, was the Prospective 2020 to February 2021 quarter totaled 1.38 billion Plantings report which showed 2021 corn plantings bushels, up a hefty 39 percent from the same period at an estimated 91.1 million acres, up less than 1 a year earlier. percent, or an increase of just 325,000 acres from a year ago. n Ryberg optimistic for 2021 season

RYBERG, from pg. 15

but what we get is a measure of the biological activity of your soils. And this varies from soil type to soil type, plus drainage considerations, and we’re learning crop rotations and weed control also impact these scores. We’re moving in the right direction — that’s all that really matters. I don’t know if ‘ultimate scores’ are an eventuality.

Ryberg is pleased with the organic matter content of his farm’s soils. “Improving somewhat … we’re mostly in the high 5’s and 6’s. Plus some peat soils in the 15-plus category. There’s a continual message for us farmers to be increasing the organic matter of our soils. We were at relatively high scores already so we’re very pleased with the Haney test scores we’re seeing each year.”

Ryberg also employs variable nitrogen application rates for his crops. “Our fields are mapped and we collect yield data on a field-by-field basis. So we do some ‘spoon feeding’ our corn — especially those fields on continuous corn which get upwards of 220 pounds actual nitrogen. We’ve proven we can raise 225-230 bushel yields, so we try to feed according to appetite. On soybeans we’ve cut back to about 160 pounds.

Commodity prices are strong. China continues a major buyer of U.S. farm production — be that corn, soybeans, soybean oil, now ethanol fuels and even pork and beef are getting lots of China buyers too. I asked Ryberg for his predictions for the upcoming crop year.

“Right now we’re pretty optimistic,” he said. “Soil moistures are looking good. We’re hoping to get an early start. If Mother Nature cooperates with us throughout the growing season, 2021 could be a good one.”

With your increasing soil health, are you also considering boosting planting rates of corn, and even soybeans? “We’ve done a little with both crops,” explained Ryberg. “We don’t have much variability in our soils … pretty much flat and black on all our crop land. On seed genetics, we get at least a couple years data before making changes in our corn genetics, even our soybeans. In fact, with good genetics, it’s usually three to four years before a significant change to new pedigrees.”

So the bottom line for Ryberg Farms: Over the past six years they’re averaging $70 to $80 per acre reductions in total production costs. In simple farm jargon, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!” v

You’ll recall February milk output was up 2 percent from February 2020, after adjusting for Leap Day. The Dairy Products report shows where the milk went.

Cheese output totaled 1.04 billion pounds, down 8.1 percent from January, but 4.7 percent above February 2020 (when adjusted for the Leap Day). Output for the first two months of 2021 totaled 2.18 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from 2020.

Italian-type cheese totaled 444.3 million pounds, down 7.6 percent from January but 2.4 percent above a year ago. Year-to-date, Italian was at 925.3 million pounds, down 0.9 percent.

American-type cheese totaled 425.4 million pounds, down 10.3 percent from January, but 5.2 percent above a year ago. Year-to-date, American hit 899.7 million pounds, up 5.1 percent.

Mozzarella output, at 347.5 million pounds, was up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Year-to-date, mozzarella was at 722.4 million pounds, down 1.7 percent from 2019.

Cheddar output, the cheese traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, fell to 301.6 million pounds. This is down 45.3 million pounds or 13.1 percent from the January level which was revised up 9.3 million, but was 9.6 million pounds or 3.3 percent above a year ago. Year-to-date, cheddar is at 648.5 million pounds, up 4.3 percent from 2019.

Churns produced 185.6 million pounds of butter. This is down 24 million pounds or 11.5 percent from January’s total which was revised up 2.7 million pounds, and was up 4 million pounds or 2.2 percent above a year ago, when adjusted. Butter output for the first two months totaled 395.3 million pounds, up 3.6 percent from 2020.

Yogurt production totaled 381.7 million pounds, up 5.4 percent from a year ago, with the year-to-date total at 767.3 million pounds, up 6.1 percent.

Dry whey totaled 77.0 million pounds, down 7 million or 8.3 percent from January, but 3.1 million or 4.2 percent above a year ago, with year-to-date at 161 million pounds, up 0.2 percent.

Dry whey stocks grew to 70.4 million pounds, up 4.5 percent from January, but 5.5 percent below those a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk output slipped to 186.3 million pounds, down 11.7 million pounds or 5.9 percent from January, but 32.7 million or 21.2 percent above a year ago. Powder production year-to-date stands at 384.3 million pounds, up 14.6 percent from 2020.

Stocks, at 345.6 million pounds, were up 40.6 million pounds or 13.3 percent from January and a bulging 27.3 million pounds or 8.6 percent above a year ago. Shipping issues, including blockage of the Suez Canal, likely backed up exports.

Skim milk powder production dropped to 29.6 million pounds, down 6.4 million pounds or 17.8 per-

See MIELKE, pg. 18

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MIELKE, from pg. 16

cent from January and 7.5 million pounds or 20.2 percent below a year ago. Year-to-date, skim milk powder hit 65.6 million pounds, down 16.5 percent from 2020.

n

Falling milk prices and rising feed costs, thanks to China’s purchases, continue to take a toll on dairy farm profitability. The USDA’s latest Ag Prices report shows the February milk feed ratio at 1.78, down from 1.98 in January, down from 2.35 in February 2020, and the lowest since May 2020’s 1.77.

The index is based on the current milk price in relationship to feed prices for a dairy ration consisting of 51 percent corn, 8 percent soybeans and 41 percent alfalfa hay. In other words, one pound of milk could only purchase 1.78 pounds of dairy feed of that blend in February.

The U.S. All-Milk price averaged $17.10 per cwt., down 40 cents from January and $1.80 below the February 2020 average.

California’s All Milk price fell to $17.80, down 60 cents from January and 80 cents below a year ago. Wisconsin, at $17.20, was down 30 cents from January and $1.90 below a year ago.

The national average corn price jumped to $4.75 per bushel, up 51 cents per bushel from January, which followed a 27 cent rise the month before, and was a whopping 97 cents per bushel above February 2020.

Soybeans averaged $12.70 per bushel, up an astounding $1.80 per bushel from January, which followed a 40 cent rise from December. Soybeans were an unbelievable $4.10 per bushel above February 2020.

Alfalfa hay averaged $175 per ton, up $4.00 from January and $7.00 above a year ago.

Looking at the cow side of the ledger; the February cull price for beef and dairy combined averaged $65.60 per cwt., up $5.90 from January, 20 cents below February 2020, and $6.00 below the 2011 base average of $71.60 per cwt.

In the week ending March 20, 62,300 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, down 6,500 from the previous week and 5,200 or 7.7 percent less than that week a year ago.

n

Cash dairy prices moved higher in the Good Friday holiday-shortened week. The cheddar blocks closed April 1 at $1.7750 per pound, up 5.5 cents on the week and 62.5 cents above a year ago when the blocks saw the second largest week to week plunge ever, losing 44 cents.

The barrels finished at $1.5125, up 5 cents on the week, 37.5 cents above a year ago when the barrels lost 20.25 cents, and are 26.25 cents below the blocks. Sales for the week amounted to 11 cars of block and four loads of barrel.

Central cheesemakers tell Dairy Market News regional dairy farmers are seeing increases in dayto-day milk output. Cheese demand has remained steady on the retail side and food service orders have picked up. Barrel producers report that steadily busy customer activity has kept loads moving out the door. Some report hearing of potential carnivals and fairs, but this year’s spring/summer events could be 11th-hour decisions due to the pandemic. Cheese market tones are “holding somewhat steady, although some contacts view them more bullishly than not,” says Dairy Market News.

Western retail cheese demand was slightly lower this week, while food service demand continued to increase. Export demand is also strong. There is plenty of milk available for cheese as plants continue to run at or near capacity. Inventories are mixed as some inventories grow, others are committed to surging food service sales. Plenty of cheddar-style cheese is available, though much is currently contracted. Hard Italian cheese demand is currently stable. n

Butter climbed to an April 1 close of $1.8450 per pound, 7 cents higher on the week and the highest since June 19. It was 56.5 cents above a year ago when the butter fell 20.75 cents to $1.28. Nineteen cars found new homes on the week.

The last trading day in February saw butter at $1.47 per pound. But, as food service demand continues its upswing, butter producers say the push into the $1.80s at the end of March is not surprising. Retail orders have continued to outdo expectations, but food service customers refilling pipelines have definitely given the market tones some life. That said however, contacts question the longevity as butter prices push higher, which could offset some of the recent international luster. Cream availability remains somewhat tight and plant managers say the heavy availability of much of the pandemic era has dissipated.

Some western butter makers are producing additional 82 percent unsalted butter to keep up with steady export interest. Inventories are up year-overyear, but much of it is already on contract, and butter makers expect to work through the stock over the next few months. Contacts hold varying opinions on how responsive consumers will be to retail holiday promotions; changes in grocery shopping habits and in-home gatherings pose challenges to accurate forecasting. However, as spring weather returns and vaccination rates increase, consumers are venturing out more, and food service demand is burgeoning, says Dairy Market News.

Grade A nonfat dry milk closed April 1 at $1.19

See MIELKE, pg. 21

World Dairy Expo to remain in Madison

MADISON, Wis. — World Dairy Expo recently announced, after thorough consideration, World Dairy Expo 2021 will remain in Madison, Wisconsin. The 54th edition of the event is scheduled for Sept. 28 through Oct. 2. This announcement comes after contingency planning and consideration of alternative venues.

“The clarity that Expo’s leaders sought from Dane County officials regarding the path forward for responsibly and safely hosting World Dairy Expo 2021 at the Alliant Energy Center has come to fruition,” shares Bill Hageman, WDE Board President. “We are grateful for the patience and commitment to World Dairy Expo exhibited by our stakeholders and the dairy community throughout this process. Expo is excited for Madison to once again be the place where the global dairy industry meets!”

For more information, visit worlddairyexpo.com.

This article was submitted by World Dairy Expo. v

Webinar offers European dry cow therapy

“Selective Dry Cow Therapy: Which Herds, Which Cows?” headlines the National Mastitis Council’s next webinar, set for April 15, starting at 2 p.m. This free, one-hour educational offering features Volker Krömker, a professor in the University of Copenhagen’s department of veterinary and animal sciences, Frederiksberg C, Denmark.

The April 15 webinar will focus on factors to consider when contemplating selective dry cow therapy for a dairy herd and factors to consider when choosing a dry cow therapy regimen for individual cows. Key topics include practical decision making regarding drying off dairy cows, herd-specific mastitis monitoring, risk factors for new mastitis infections or mastitis cure, and decision criteria for selective dry cow treatment.

To register for this webinar, go to https://bit. ly/3r3YNIC and follow the prompts. As the webinar approaches, registrants will receive an e-mail with information on how to log in to participate. If you are an NMC member and cannot attend the live program, you may access the webinar recording after April 30 at nmconline.org.

For further information, contact JoDee Sattler at jdsattler@nmconline.org.

This article was submitted by the National Mastitis Council. v