Mielke Market Weekly

This column was written for the marketing week ending May 14.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate on 2021 milk production and gave us our first peak at 2022 output in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand News and information for Minnesota and Northern Iowa dairy producers Estimates report. The report cited higher cow inventories for the gain in 2021 output and continued gains in milk per cow more than offsetting a MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY 2022 production and marketings were estimated at 230.3 and 229.2 billion pounds respectively. If realized, 2022 production per cwt., up 60 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to $18.16 in 2020 and $16.96 in 2019. The 2022 average is projected at $16.85, due to slight reduction in the dairy cow herd By Lee Mielke would be up 2.4 billion pounds or 1.1 per- expected weaker cheese and whey prices. for 2022. cent from 2021. The 2021 Class IV price is estimated to average

Predicting milk output in the coming months will Fat basis exports were raised on higher expected $15.75, also up 60 cents from a month ago, and combe a challenge, considering the rising costs of feed. exports of butterfat products. The skim-solids basis pares to $13.49 in 2020 and $16.30 in 2019. The Many operations are already pinched from recent export forecast was lowered as weaker-than-previ- 2022 average was projected at $15.70, as lower nonhigh producer price differentials and de-pooling. ously-expected nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder fat dry milk prices more than offsets higher butter Eyes will be on culling rates and if they climb much, sales more than offset higher expected whey-prod- prices, according to the USDA. U.S. milk output could slip. But no one can guess how much. The WASDE’s 2021 production and marketings were estimated at 227.9 and 226.8 billion pounds uct exports. Fat basis and skim-solids basis import forecasts were raised from last month on recent import data and higher expected second-quarter butterfat imports. Commercial fat basis exports for 2022 were forecast lower as the department believes higher domestic butter prices will reduce competitiveness in world markets but strong global demand and respectively, up 200 million pounds on production Cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey prices were weaker domestic prices for cheese, nonfat dry milk and up 100 million pounds on marketings. If real- raised from last month’s report, but butter was low- and whey are expected to support slightly higher ized, 2021 production would be up 4.7 billion pounds ered. Class III and Class IV milk prices were raised. exports on a skim-solids basis. or 2.1 percent from 2020. The 2021 Class III average was pegged at $17.70 Fat basis imports were forecast lower on lower Webinar focuses on coccidiosis expected imports of butterfat products and cheese, while skim-solids basis imports are expected to decline, mainly on lower cheese imports.

Dairy Calf and Heifer Association’s May 25 webi- weaned calves, a quick diagnosis of coccidiosis is Butter prices were forecast higher, but cheese was nar features “Your Calves Are Shedding Cocci: The often made and treatment begins. But what if it’s the forecast lower as an increased proportion of milk is Magnitude of the Problem.” This free, one-hour edu- wrong treatment? What if the problem isn’t coccidio- expected to move into cheese production. Nonfat dry cational offering starts at 2 p.m. sis? While diarrhea is a common symptom of coccid- milk and whey prices were lowered reflecting comDuring this webinar, Gerald Mechor, a technical consultant at Elanco Animal Health, will discuss the importance of a thorough examination and diagnostic testing to help confirm a positive case of coccidioiosis, its occurrence in calves does not always equate to coccidia. Bacteria, viruses, parasitic infections and dietary changes are other common causes of diarrhea in weaned calves. petition in international markets. n Switching to the crop and feed side of the report, some of the USDA’s data differed from what many sis, as well as prevention tips to keep calves healthy To register for the webinar, go to http://bit.ly/ had expected and may have shifted the market tone during this critical growth stage. Coccidiosis remains DCHARUMENSIN2021 and follow the prompts. As slightly lower, according to HighGround Dairy’s a common disease pathogen present on all dairies the webinar approaches, you will receive an e-mail Lucas Fuess. Speaking in the May 17 “Dairy Radio with the potential to significantly impact calves and with information on how to log in to participate. Now” broadcast, Fuess warned that dairy producers heifers. This article was submitted by the Dairy Calf and will likely see the highest costs in almost a decade.

Mechor notes that when diarrhea is present in Heifer Association. v The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2021-22 is for Mastitis diagnostics is subject of webinar greater production and domestic use, lower exports, and increased ending stocks. The corn crop was projected at 15 billion bushels, up 5.7 percent from last National Mastitis Council’s next webinar features “From Dairy Lab to Veterinary Lab: The Do’s and Don’ts of Mastitis Diagnostics.” This free, one-hour educational offering starts at 2 p.m. on June 24. During the webinar, Justine Britten, an NMC board member and laboratory director at Udder Health Systems of Meridian, Idaho, will discuss mastitis diagnostics, including microbiological culture, molecular methods and on-farm culture. Key topics include primary differences between most on-farm labs and commercial milk quality labs; complexity levels of diagnosing mastitis pathogens; advantages molecular methods; and interpretation of results and use in management decisions. To register for this webinar, go to http://bit.ly/ June24NMCwebinar and follow the prompts. As the webinar approaches, registrants will receive an e-mail with information on how to log in to participate. If you are an NMC member and cannot attend the live program, you may access the webinar at www.nmconline.org after July 12. This article was submitted by the National Mastitis Council. v year, with a yield projection of 179.5 bushels per acre. With beginning stocks down sharply from a year ago, total corn supplies were forecast to increase only modestly to 16.3 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use was forecast to decline from a year ago as greater domestic use is more than offset by lower exports. Food, seed and industrial use was projected to rise 220 million bushels to 6.6 billion. With the total U.S. corn supply rising and use declining, ending stocks are up 250 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 10.2 percent would be above a year ago, says USDA, but still and disadvantages of culture-based methods versus See MIELKE, pg. 17

MIELKE, from pg. 16

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MIELKE, from pg. 17

costs and are a concern for cheese buyers, warned Dairy Market News, and some have begun to look for other avenues of transportation. With the high availability of milk in the region cheese plants are running full schedules but market tones are “firm.”

Dairy farmers remain grateful to pizza, in particular pizza restaurants, which have upheld cheese sales. Pizza outlets fared the best in the Coviddriven demise of a huge percentage of U.S. restaurants that closed their doors last year.

The pizza industry is still doing well. The May 7 Dairy and Food Market Analyst reported, “Papa John’s system-wide sales were up 26 percent yearover-year in North America and up 23 percent in international markets. Compared to two years ago, North American sales grew by 33 percent and international sales increased by 26 percent. Domino’s said their sales were up 15 percent year-over-year in the United States and up 13 percent in international markets during the quarter.”

But, U.S. cheese output is increasing due to expanded existing plants as well as new ones being built around the country. The investment is huge. However, American cheese consumption is rising and hopefully stays ahead of production. n

Cash butter had a good week climbing daily to a week’s end close of $1.875 per pound, up 10.5 cents and 23 cents above a year ago when it gained 35.5 cents. There were five sales reported on the week.

Butter producers tell Dairy Market News inquiries for bulk salted butter have increased. Cream is not regarded as tight, but butter plant managers do not report it as loose, either. Some butter makers are clearing cream from Western suppliers, despite increasing freight costs. Food service butter demand has rebounded some but general demand is mixed as retail sales are seasonally quiet. Butter producers are using the time to churn ahead for fall demand. Some contacts expect butter market tones to continue strengthening for the near-term.

Cream is steady in the west, says Dairy Market News, albeit gradually constricting as ice cream makers absorb ample volumes. Some ice cream

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makers say they are facing both high year-over-year and seasonal demand and cannot make enough ice cream. Some butter manufacturers are selling a few spot loads of cream and running decreased butter output. Others, particularly in the Southwest, are maintaining seasonally active butter output, trying to stash extra butter in the coolers now for later this year, when cream may be harder to come by.

Inventories throughout the region are stable. Retail demand is steady to lower. Food service orders are trending strong but level, although there is some variation at the state and even county level. Butter sellers note their food service partners placing either smaller and more frequent just-intime replenishment orders or placing and working through larger and less frequent orders. Accurately forecasting butter demand remains a challenge, says Dairy Market News, for both dairy manufacturers and food service customers.

Grade A nonfat dry milk had some ups and downs but softened to a May 14 close at $1.30 per pound. This is down 2.25 cents on the week but still 36.5 cents above a year ago when it jumped 11 cents. There were 12 sales reported for the week.

Dry whey finished the week at 64 cents per pound, up 1.25 cents and 25 cents above a year ago, with two sales reported at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. n

U.S. fluid milk sales took a hit. USDA’s latest data shows 3.9 billion pounds of packaged fluid products were sold in March, down 7.5 percent from March 2020.

Conventional product sales totaled 3.7 billion pounds, down 8 percent from a year ago. Organic products, at 255 million pounds, were up just 0.2 percent and represented 6.5 percent of total sales for the month.

Whole milk sales totaled 1.25 billion pounds, down 14.5 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date consumption down 7.1 percent from a year ago. It represented 32.6 percent of total milk sales for the three-month period.

Skim milk sales, at 224 million pounds, were down 13.9 percent from a year ago and down 15.5 percent year-to-date.

Total packaged fluid milk sales for the three months amounted to 11.4 billion pounds, down 5.3 percent from 2020. Conventional product sales totaled 10.6 billion pounds, down 5.9 percent. Organic products, at 736 million pounds, were up 4.8 percent and represented 6.5 percent of total milk sales for the period. The figures represent consumption in Federal milk marketing order areas, which account for approximately 92 percent of total fluid milk sales in the United States.

In the week ending May 1, 55,700 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, down 3,400 from the previous week and 2,900 or 4.9 percent less than that week a year ago.

Lee Mielke is a syndicated columnist who resides in Everson, Wash. His weekly column is featured in newspapers across the country and he may be reached at lkmielke@juno.com. v

Dairy Nutrition, Management Conference

ST CLOUD, Minn. — Learn the latest information in dairy nutrition and management by attending the virtual 2021 Four-State Dairy Nutrition and Management Conference on June 9-10.

The conference will feature live morning sessions designed to promote interaction and discussion between participants and the speakers. General sessions will have a live component with speakers providing a 5-minute live summary of their recorded presentation. This will be followed with a question and discussion period between session speakers and participants. Breakout session will not have a live component, but you will be able to contact speakers directly with your questions.

The June 9 morning session will feature Dr. Bill Weiss, Ohio State University discussing updated energy systems for dairy cows. Dr. Jim Drackley, University of Illinois will be be explaining a new system for determining the nutrient requirements of young dairy calves. This will be followed by a panel discussion of how we will be feeding cows in the future.

The June 10 session will feature a discussion on hypocalcemia treatment and prevention featuring Dr. Jesse Goff, Iowa State University, and Dr. Laura Hernandez, University of Wisconsin. Another morning session will focus on improving lactation performance using high digestible forage featuring Dr. Kan Kalscheur, USDA Forage Research Center discussing their lactation research on reduced lignin alfalfa. Dr. Luiz Ferreretto, University of Wisconsin will discuss corn silage fiber digestibility.

Select breakout topics include using lung ultrasound to identify a “calories-out” problem in calves; new passive immunity guidelines; optimizing the use of sexed semen; nutritional strategies for alleviating heat stress in dairy cows; dairy heifer coccidiosis research; using summer to winter ratios to evaluate summer slump; what is happening in the gut in the scouring calf and effective fluid therapy; and mineral bioavailability.

The conference registration fee is $100. For details and to register, visit http://fourstatedairy.org/ or contact Jim Salfer at salfe001@umn.edu or (320) 2036093.

This article was submitted by University of Minnesota Extension. v

FOLEY, Minn. — With drier weather, concerns about corn and soybean emergence may be warranted. Since it has been a few years since we have dealt with potential stand issues, a short review of stand counts and potential replanting was in order. Much of this information can be found in greater detail at extension.umn.edu/crop-production under the Corn and Soybean tabs.

The first step is to determine the current population of what was planted. For both corn and soybean this is approximately the same. Choose a row length is 1/1000 of an acre per your planting row width and count the healthy plants in that section of row. This makes scaling your calculations up to one full acre

Higher pork prices are hurting demand

TEALE, from pg. 14

to suddenly pick up, there would be a possibility for the current recovery rally to extend. The next few weeks will set the tone for the cattle market; but at this juncture the facts are trying to point to lower prices.

The hog market has been on fire since the beginning of the year. Demand for pork products has been the major factor behind the current — along with the decreased number of available market ready animals. However, as the prices have risen, the demand for pork has slightly decreased; which may signal an end to the recent rally.

Technically, the market is overbought and could be subject to a correction. Historically, the hog market tops in this time period from May to July. Therefore, the next few weeks and months could be very interesting and we may see some changes to the hog market.v

Fed can serve as lender of last resort

JOHNSON, from pg. 14

enforces the regulations which banks, savings and loans, and credit unions must follow. It works with other federal and state agencies to ensure these financial institutions are financially sound and consumers are receiving fair and equitable treatment. When an organization is found to have problems, the Fed uses its authority to have the organization correct the problems.

Financial system — The Fed maintains the stability of the financial system by providing payment services. In times of financial strain, the Fed is authorized to step in as a lender of last resort, providing liquidity to an individual bank or the entire banking system. For example, the Fed may step in and offer to buy the government bonds owned by a particular bank. By so doing, the Fed provides the bank with money it can use for its own purposes.

Banker for banks, U.S. government — The Fed provides financial services to banks and other depository institutions as well as to the U.S. government, directly. For banks, savings and loans, and credit unions, it maintains accounts and provides various payment services, including collecting checks, electronically transferring funds, distributing new money, and receiving and destroying old, worn-out money. For the federal government, the Fed pays Treasury checks; processes electronic payments; and issues, transfers, and redeems U.S. government securities.

Each day, the Fed is behind the scenes supporting the economy and providing services to the U.S. financial system. And while the Fed’s duties are many and varied, its focus is to maintain confidence in banking institutions.

A decentralized central bank

The Federal Reserve System consists of 12 independent banks that operate under the supervision of a federally appointed Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each of these banks works within a specific district.

Securities and insurance products are offered through Cetera Investment Services LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFG STC Insurance Agency LLC), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Cetera Investment Advisers LLC. Neither firm is affiliated with the financial institution where investment services are offered. Advisory services are only offered by Investment Adviser Representatives.

Investments are: *Not FDIC/NCUSIF insured *May lose value *Not financial institution guaranteed *Not a deposit *Not insured by any federal government agency.

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2021 FMG Suite.

To learn more about how Profinium is a full financial health solutions center offering banking, mortgage, insurance, trust and wealth planning services in Southern Minnesota, visit Profinium.com. v easier. Also, finding the length of 1/1000 of an acre per your row width is as simple as looking at tables provided online. For narrow row or solid seeded soybeans, use a hoop either 22.75 inches or 32-inches in diameter and use the table provided at the UMN Extension soybean page to help determine plant population. When taking these stand counts, randomly select multiple locations throughout the field. You will also need to take notes of uniformity of stand and seedling vigor which leads into the next step.

Investigate the problems associated with emergence. In the case of this season, dry weather is the primary concern. However, you will also want to check for potential issues with herbicides, fertilizer, disease and insects. As with many early season emergence issues, some may need correction this growing season and others may need to be considered for next season.

As for replanting decisions, it is time to combine the above information. First look at the population and uniformity of the existing stand. Keep in mind that uneven emergence does not necessarily mean a significant drop in yields and may not be profitable to replant. Potential yields for both corn and soybeans should be calculated. Tables containing potential yields based on planting populations and dates for both corn and soybeans are useful in this case and can be found at the Extension website.

Next, factor in the costs of replanting including seed, labor and fuel. Keep in mind that if the cost of replanting outweighs the added yield, then replanting will likely not be economical.

Finally, check the labels of any pesticides used to ensure replanting can occur.

This article was submitted by Nathan Drewitz, University of Minnesota Extension. v

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