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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — MAY 28/JUNE 4, 2021
MARKETING
Grain Outlook New crop corn sales largest of the year
Cash Grain Markets
corn/change* soybeans/change* Stewartville $6.15 -.97 $14.77 -1.15 Edgerton $6.32 -.97 $14.81 -1.54 Jackson $6.23 -1.12 $14.73 -1.58 Janesville $6.26 -1.11 $14.74 -1.38 $14.87 -1.18 The following marketing analysis is for States alone, they have bought 41.3 percent Cannon Falls $6.20 -1.02 $6.30 -1.02 $14.97 -1.28 the week ending May 21. of their forecasted corn imports for 2021-22. Sleepy Eye Either China’s corn import prediction is too CORN — Despite the spectacular sell-off $6.24 $14.82 low, or the USDA needs to bump up the U.S. Average: last week in corn, July corn this week number. Year Ago Average: $2.78 $7.97 dropped to its lowest point since April 28 and December since April 20 on improved For old crop, China has 397 million Grain prices are effective cash close on May 25. weather forecasts and sharp losses in the unshipped bushels remaining on the books *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. soybean and wheat markets. However, corn as of May 18. A portion of this may still be was able to recover and close higher on the canceled or rolled forward. None of these N-S. Soybeans did not suffer the same sell-off as week thanks to huge new crop export sales PHYLLIS NYSTROM numbers include any portion of sales that corn in the previous week. Remember in the week CHS Hedging Inc. announcements to China totaling 222.3 may eventually move from unknown to ended May 14, July soybeans were only down 3.5 St. Paul million bushels, and corn planting that was China. cents and July corn crashed 88.5 cents lower. This not as far along as expected. Corn planting Weekly ethanol production was the high- week it was the soy complex which experienced as of May 16 was 80 percent complete comest since March 2020 at 1.03 million barrels per day. extreme ranges. Soybeans fell to their lowest price pared to estimates for 85 percent, and the 68 percent This was a 53,000 bpd increase week-on-week and since May 4. A disappointing April National Oilseed average for this date. Corn emergence was 41 per- the biggest one-week jump in 10 weeks. Ethanol Processors Association Crush Report and improving cent, slightly ahead of the 35 percent average. stocks rose 40,000 barrels to 19.4 million barrels. Midwest weather were catalysts for profit taking. Brazil’s safrinha corn crop continued to fade with Gasoline demand increased 880,000 bpd to 9.22 milWorld vegetable oil markets were also on the Agro Consult publishing a 91.1 million metric ton lion bpd and a 61-week high. Compared to 2019 (pre- defensive. Nearby basis levels at processors jumped total corn crop vs. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Covid) gasoline demand is down just 2.2 percent. Net lower, suggesting they are covered at least into June. 102 mmt number this month. Rain was on its way for ethanol margins surged 32 cents to 57 cents per gal- The April NOPA Crush was 160.3 million bushels their safrinha corn crop, but it may only help 40 per- lon! compared to expectations for 168.7 million bushels. cent of the safrinha crop from suffering further yield Argentina’s corn harvest was 27.6 percent complete Increasing cases of Covid-19 in Asian countries, loss. as of May 20, according to the Buenos Aires Grain which are our largest customers, put a scare into the Weekly export sales for the week ending May Exchange. The Ag Ministry is higher at 40 percent market at mid-week. 13 were huge with new crop sales the largest of the complete. The BAGE is projecting its corn crop at 46 We had our first announced soybean sale this marketing year and combined sales the second-larg- mmt while the Rosario Grain Exchange is at 50 mmt, month with 5 million bushels for new crop sold to est of the year. Old crop sales were 10.9 million bush- and the USDA at 47 mmt. Mexico. Planting progress as of May 16 at 61 percent els to bring total commitments to 2.677 billion bushOutlook: Tight stocks this year, skyrocketing new complete was right what the trade was anticipating els. The USDA is estimating this year’s exports at crop sales, favorable weather for crop development and well ahead of the 37 percent average. Soybean 2.775 billion bushels, so we need just a couple of (but we’re just getting started), and inflation fears emergence was 20 percent vs. 12 percent average. million in sales per week to ring the bell. New crop will keep us on our toes until we begin to see more Soyoil set another new contract high this week, but sales were a staggering 159.9 million bushels for the acreage estimates leading up to the June 30 report. then retraced gains to the 20-day moving average week that ended May 13. Total new crop commit- It would be unusual for us to see December highs set technical support line. ments stand at 351.8 million bushels which is 14.4 in May, but this has been a strange year so I’m not Weekly export sales were neutral this week with percent of the USDA’s 2.45 billion bushel 2021-22 sure anything would surprise me. We have a long export forecast. Adding new crop sales announce- way to go before this crop is put to bed and it may old sales of 3.1 million bushels and new crop sales of ments since May 13, total new crop commitments to take a weather scare to give us another leg up. I 3.5 million bushels. Total commitments for 2020-21 all buyers of 627.6 million bushels equates to 25.6 would continue to manage risk using a variety of rose to 2.258 billion bushels vs. the USDA target of percent of the USDA forecast. This is a very high available marketing tools. Looking out to your 2022 2.28 billion bushels. China has 26 million bushels of unshipped old crop bushels on the books. Total U.S. percentage for this time of year. crop may also work into your marketing plan. These 2021-22 commitments are 258 million bushels vs. China’s new crop U.S. corn purchases since the cut- markets are not for the faint of heart, so tread care- just 78.2 million last year and the USDA’s 2.075 biloff for the weekly export report were 275.8 million fully. lion bushel forecast. China has purchased 113.9 milbushels. It’s estimated they have bought 423 million For the week, July corn traded a range from $6.33 lion bushels of U.S. new crop soybeans or 44 percent bushels of U.S. corn for the 2021-22 crop year as of to $6.71.25, closing 15.75 cents higher at $6.59.5 per of the total U.S. new crop sales on the books. May 20. The USDA’s latest estimate for U.S. 2021-22 bushel. The December contract traded from $5.20.75 Argentina’s port workers staged a 72-hour strike exports is 2.45 billion bushels. This calculates to to $5.55.75, settling 3.75 cents higher for the week at to protest the lack of vaccine availability. There is China being responsible for a minimum of 17.2 per- $5.46.5 per bushel. the possibility of another strike in the coming week cent of our projected exports, so far. It’s estimated SOYBEANS — We’re spelling volatility a different if they are not satisfied with the government’s progChina will import a total of 26 mmt (1.023 billion way this week. This week it’s spelled S-O-Y-B-E-Abushels) of corn in 2021-22. From just the United See NYSTROM, pg. 17 Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.
