THE LAND — JUNE 25/JULY 2, 2021
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
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MARKETING
Grain Outlook It’s ‘wait and see’ as corn market watches weather
Livestock Angles Willing packers keep cash cattle strong
out of the last ten years, but Triple digit moves are an will increase. As this happens The following marketing in the last five years, it has almost daily occurrence in and the supply of beef analysis is for the week ending closed lower twice. the livestock futures as of becomes more ready availJune 25. late. Some is due to the cash able to the consumer, expect Weekly corn export sales CORN — The central and prices moving in large direcprices paid for live cattle to were neutral for both old eastern Corn Belt benefited tions on a daily basis. Some is peak soon after this happens. and new crop. Old crop sales from timely rain this week due to the large speculative were 8.5 million bushels. The short-term outlook will with more in the forecast for Total commitments are 2.737 makeup in the market at the remain questionable and the balance of June. In some billion bushels vs. the USDA present time. Also, it is partly expect a continuation of radicases, severe storms caused PHYLLIS NYSTROM JOE TEALE outlook for 2.85 billion bush- due to the overall uncertainty cal behavior in the futures flooding but nothing which CHS Hedging Inc. Broker els. We only need to average of the underlying economic market as well in the live was considered significant in St. Paul Great Plains Commodity trade. 4.7 million bushels of sales conditions at the present. the big picture. Afton, Minn. to hit the USDA forecast. In The current Covid-19 panic The hog market has Big daily price swings have the report, two corn cargoes has disrupted the supply line appeared to find a potential top during become the norm as the market reducwere switched from unknown to China. from top to bottom for the last year and the week ending on June 18. Futures es the weather premium in the market China has 255.9 million bushels left to is still a factor in the uncertainty of the prices have plummeted under heavy and funds reduce their net long expoship. New crop sales were 12.2 million supply chain of the entire meat produc- long liquidation as pork cuts outs have sure before month and quarter end. bushels to bring total commitments to tion. Another cause of wide swings is also begun to fall back from the recent The June 30 U.S. Department of 617.3 million bushels. The International purely the dynamics of the trade. When rally. Agriculture reports for planted acreage Grains Council raised world corn pro- prices move to higher prices than norand grain stocks as of June 1 could There is an old saying when hog duction by 7 mmt. mal range at any given time, the volachange the scenario, but we will have prices exceed cattle prices it won’t be Weekly ethanol production was up tility will normally expand. The future long before the hog market will fall. to wait and see. 23,000 barrels per day to 1.05 million will decide when the volatility will This appears to be what is taking place As of June 20, U.S. corn ratings fell 3 bpd and only 2.2 percent behind the diminish and the wide swings in prices at the present time. Therefore, the outpercent to 65 percent good/excellent. same week in pre-Covid 2019. Ethanol will also subside. look has the possibility of suggesting Minnesota conditions dropped 8 perstocks rose 518,000 barrels to 21.1 milAs for the cattle market, prices have lower hog prices may be in the future cent, Illinois fell 4 percent, Indiana lion barrels, the highest in 13 weeks. moved higher over the past few weeks heading into the fall months. down 3 percent, Iowa down 7 percent, Net margins improved 3 cents to 13 as packers continue to buy cattle at Ohio up 4 percent, South Dakota Because the export of pork has been cents per gallon. Gasoline demand rose higher prices in an attempt to bring dropped 11 percent, and North Dakota so exceptional over the past year, the from 9.36 million bpd to 9.44 million back a better supply of beef to the conwas 3 percent lower. initial drop may be the most severe folbpd. We did see the first ethanol imports sumer. The disruptions because of the The average trade estimate for the in 27 weeks at 6 million gallons. pandemic have slowed the production lowed by an easing lower as we move into the fall months. June 30 Planted Acreage report is 93.8 AgroConsult lowered their Brazilian of beef products for the past several million acres with a range of guesses months. However, as we get back to n from 92.0 to 95.84 million acres. The See NYSTROM, pg. 16 more normal conditions, production I would like to thank The Land for USDA forecasted corn acreage in the opportunity to write “Livestock March at 91.1 million acres and has Angles” for their magazine for all these been using that on the balance sheet. years. It has been a pleasure and I will Last year we planted 90.8 million acres. certainly miss writing the livestock corn/change* soybeans/change* The average trade estimate for corn article in the future. However, after 48 stocks as of June 1 is 4.144 billion St. Cloud $6.09 -.44 $13.20 -.91 years in the futures industry, I felt it bushels with a range of guesses from Madison $6.21 -.44 $13.05 -.86 was time to move on in my life and 3.917 to 4.546 billion bushels. Last Redwood Falls $6.24 -.43 $13.40 -1.06 retire. Thank you and God bless. v year we had 5 billion bushels of corn on Fergus Falls $6.19 -.39 $13.00 -.96 hand on June 1. Morris $6.18 -.39 $13.05 -.91 On the June 30 report day, corn stocks Tracy $6.37 -.28 $13.38 -.96 were higher than the average trade Average: $6.21 $13.18 estimate in four of the last five years. Corn stocks as of June 1 have been Year Ago Average: $2.99 $8.16 higher than the average trade estimate Grain prices are effective cash close on June 29. in all the last four years. On report day, *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. December corn has closed lower five
Cash Grain Markets
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Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.
