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THE LAND — MAY 27/JUNE 3, 2022
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
MARKETING
Grain Outlook Corn caught up in wheat’s surge The following marketing analysis is for the week ending May 20. CORN – Corn traders returned from the weekend to news that India revised an earlier announcement and had decided to ban wheat exports until domestic prices retreated. This shot wheat prices to limit up and pulled corn prices along for the ride. December corn set a fresh contract high at $7.66.25 per contract as did a few other 2023 contracts. As details emerged, it was noted that government to government wheat sales would be permitted to areas that need food, and for other sales, if letters of credit had been received the shipments could proceed. Once the news PHYLLIS NYSTROM was absorbed into the market CHS Hedging Inc. and the weather turned more St. Paul favorable for planting, prices reversed direction and had erased May 16’s gains by midweek. Risk-off type trading ensued for the balance of the week as poor retail earnings reports slashed equity markets and selling spilled over to the ag sector. Accelerating the mid-week fall was news the United Nations Secretary-General was talking with Russia on the possibility of opening grain exports out of Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus. Little progress had been made and nothing was agreed to as of this writing. Adding woes to the markets is the fear of a recession from aggressive action by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Corn planting as of May 15 at 49 percent was as expected, but trails the 67 percent average. Illinois passed the halfway mark with 55 percent planted vs. 70 percent average; Iowa 57 percent planted vs. 80 percent average; Minnesota, with 35 percent complete, was the second-slowest since 2000 and compared to 72 percent on average. North Dakota was 4 percent planted vs. 41 percent on average and South Dakota was 31 percent planted vs. 54 percent on average. Corn emergence was less than half the average at 14 percent compared to the 32 percent average. The National Weather Service is forecasting high chances for above-normal temperatures for the Corn Belt and below normal rainfall for the western belt (except for Minnesota) for June through August. The private consultancy AgroConsult cut its
Cash Grain Markets corn/change* Stewartville Edgerton Jackson Hope Cannon Falls Sleepy Eye
$7.31 $7.72 $7.87 $7.62 $7.36 $7.62
-.12 +.07 +.12 +.03 +.05 +.05
soybeans/change* $16.53 $16.43 $16.50 $16.42 $16.70 $16.53
+.84 +1.11 +1.03 +1.03 +1.17 +1.16
Financial Focus Fallen tree damage — who pays?
As a homeowner, are you responsible for the damage caused by a tree on your property that hits your neighbor’s home or other insured structure — such Average: $7.58 $16.52 as a garage or shed? In most cases, the answer is “no.” Year Ago Average: $6.24 $14.82 When such damage occurs to your neighbor’s home Grain prices are effective cash close on May 24. due to forces outside your control (e.g., weather *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. events), your neighbors may have to file a claim with their insurer Brazilian safrinha corn crop forecast by 4.6 million to receive a reimbursement for metric tons to 87.6 mmt. Conab’s estimate is 88.5 the damage a down tree or mmt. The dry weather has been stressing the crop branches cause. and it’s expected the U.S. Department of Agriculture There is one exception, however. will lower Brazil’s total corn crop outlook next month. As of May 17, Brazil’s first corn harvest was If it is determined the tree dam91 percent complete and the safrinha corn harvest age stems from your negligence should begin the first week of June. Argentina’s corn (e.g., dead limbs you refused to MARISSA harvest was 44 percent complete vs. 49 percent on cut down, or you chose to trim JOHNSON the three-year average. Late in the week, Argentina’s your tree as a weekend project), Profinium Ministry of Agriculture said they may raise the then the neighbor’s insurer may Wealth Management export limit for 2021-22 corn from 30 mmt to 35 come after you to recover their Advisor mmt. The ministry stated 27 mmt of the 2021-22 loss — a process called subrogacrop has already been sold. tion. Weekly export sales were very good for old crop You may want to check your policy or speak to your and slightly disappointing for new crop. Sales for insurance agent to ascertain if your homeowners this marketing year were 17.1 million bushels. Total policy covers your liability in cases of negligence. commitments of 2.3 billion bushels are 13 percent When neighbors sue… behind last year. We need to average 9.7 million Some neighbors may seek to bring legal action bushels of sales per week to hit the USDA’s target of against you, though often that is unnecessary. 2.5 billion bushels. New crop sales were 23.2 million bushels to bring total 2022-23 sales to 219.7 million First, determine what municipal laws are in place bushels and now trailing last year’s 351.8 million to cover such instances. Generally speaking, you are bushels. Last year, China was a massive buyer of not responsible unless you knew, or should have corn during this period. known, about the danger. Proving what you knew or Weekly ethanol production was unchanged for the should have known can be difficult and costly in a week at 991,000 barrels per day, but is the second- court of law. It typically benefits both parties to lowest in the last six years on the same week basis. arrive at a compromise that avoids an expensive Ethanol stocks fell 349,999 barrels to 23.8 million legal process. barrels. Margins dropped 15 cents to 16 cents. (Note: The information in this material is not Gasoline demand increased 300,000 bpd to 9 million intended as legal advice. Please consult legal or bpd which was a 14-week high, but is down 2.1 per- insurance professionals for specific information cent from the same week last year. Iowa announced regarding your individual situation.) plans to make E15 and other biofuels more available Securities and insurance products are offered through by 2026. The plan includes the number of gas sta- Cetera Investment Services LLC (doing insurance business tions offering E15 increasing from 300 to 1000. in CA as CFG STC Insurance Agency LLC), member Retail gasoline prices in the United States hit a FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Cetera record $4.59 per gallon during the week. The average Investment Advisers LLC. Neither firm is affiliated with the price for diesel fuel set a record at $5.58 per gallon. financial institution where investment services are offered. Advisory services are only offered by Investment Adviser Outlook: We’ll continue to expect high volatility in Representatives. the markets as growers skirt rain patterns and push See JOHNSON, pg. 17 See NYSTROM, pg. 17
Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.
