THE LAND — JULY 8/JULY 15, 2022
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
PAGE 13
MARKETING
Grain Outlook Corn, soybeans joined at the hip
14.460 billion bushels in June. The average trade estimate for 2021-22 U.S. corn ending stocks is 1.488 billion bushels, up 3 million bushels from last month. corn/change* soybeans/change* For 2022-23, ending stocks are estimated at 1.442 billion bushels vs. 1.400 billion last month. St. Cloud $6.59 -.56 $14.48 -1.03 Madison $6.79 -.78 $14.58 -1.09 World ending stocks for 2021-22 are forecasted at 311.32 mmt vs. 310.92 mmt last month and for 2022Redwood Falls $6.84 -.76 $14.78 -1.09 23 310.49 mmt vs. 310.45 mmt last month. Argentina’s Fergus Falls $6.54 -.76 $14.18 -1.24 corn crop is predicted at 52.38 mmt vs. 53.0 mmt last Morris $6.74 -.65 $14.33 -1.18 month and Brazil’s corn production at 116.47 mmt vs. The following marketing analysis is for the week Tracy $6.81 -.76 $14.73 -1.08 116.0 mmt last month. ending July 8. Average: $6.72 $14.51 June payrolls were up 372,000 compared to the CORN — In post-holiday trading, corn extended the 250,000 increase that was expected. The unemployprevious week’s losses, only to overdo it and spring Year Ago Average: $6.21 $13.18 ment rate was steady at 3.6 percent. This may cast back from five-month lows in the second half of the Grain prices are effective cash close on July 12. positive waves to commodities. week. In a general overview, it looks like the June 30 reports weren’t bullish or bearish and bulls need to *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. Outlook: Watch the weather forecasts for shortbe fed. Traders’ outlook on the economy pivoted from term price direction but outside factors driving money flows will also be impactfear of inflation to fear of recession. ful. The current forecasts look slightly warm and dry as we head to pollination. December corn futures dropped below the February insurance level of $5.90 Corn finished with a flourish into the weekend to close with the first weekly gain when they traded as low as $5.66.5 before bouncing. Long fund positions exited in three weeks. If the current forecast verifies, we could see additional gains. and drove the market to pre-invasion price levels. Oversold conditions and a There is an overhead gap in the December contract from $7.25.75 to $7.28.25 drier weather forecast for later this month then attracted money back to the per bushel from June 21. For the week, September corn was 13.5 cents higher at market. This allowed the market to correct and erase the early week losses. Fund $6.33.25 and December rallied 16 cents to $6.23.5 per bushel. Historical action length in corn at mid-week was estimated to be the smallest since October 2020 in December corn for the balance of July favors whichever direction it settles the and in soybeans the smallest since December 2021. first trading day after the July 4 holiday, which this year was lower. I would The weather over the Fourth of July weekend was seen as favorable for the expect weather and outside economic interest in commodities to take precedence over history. crops, but longer-term forecasts later in the week looked drier into mid-July.
Cash Grain Markets
The U.S. dollar soared to its highest level since December 2002 as investors See NYSTROM, pg. 14 looked for a safe haven. Added to the list of war-related incidents, a Russian-flagged ship which was supposedly carrying “stolen” Ukrainian grain was allowed to leave a Turkish port even after Ukraine reportedly supplied evidence the grain was stolen. Ukraine had asked Turkey to detain the ship. Ukraine has called upon Turkey to explain. Events in Ukraine will continue to be monitored, but it feels like the grain repercussions have mostly been built in the market. Conab expects a slightly bigger Brazilian corn crop at 115.7 million metric tons based on a better safrinha crop. The USDA is carrying Brazil’s corn crop at 116 mmt. Conab is estimating corn exports at 37.5 mmt which is well below the USDA’s 44 mmt export forecast. Corn conditions as of July 3 fell 3 percent to 64 percent good/excellent with Illinois down 5 percent, Iowa down 3 percent, Indiana down 11 percent, but Minnesota improved 4 percent. Seven percent of the corn was silking compared to 11 percent on average. Poor weekly export sales were unable to curb the price rally ahead of the weekend. Old crop sales showed net cancellations of 2.6 million bushels. Total sales commitments are 2.4 billion bushels. We need to average 8.3 million bushels of sales per week to hit the USDA’s target of 2.45 billion bushels. New crop sales were 4.4 million bushels, bringing total sales to 255.4 million bushels. Must present coupon at Farmfest 2022. Weekly ethanol production fell 7,000 barrels per day to 1.044 million bpd. Good while supplies last. Stocks decreased by 744,000 barrels to 23.5 million barrels. Ethanol exports in the first five months of the calendar are up 24 percent from last year. Gasoline demand was up 491,000 bpd to 9.41 million bpd. Ethanol margins dropped to a If you haven’t negative 17 cents per gallon, down 29 cents per gallon for the week. fi lle d out The Lan For the July World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, the d 2022 subscrib trade is estimating U.S. corn yield at 177.025 bushels per acre vs. 177.0 bu./acre er card you can do it last month. Corn production is expected at 14.52 billion bushels compared to at Farmfest!
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Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.
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