Cash Grain Markets

third-highest safrinha production areas will not be planted within the ideal planting window.

Negotiations to extend the Black Sea grain corridor should begin soon. Russia is once again asking for concessions to make it easier for customers to buy their grain and Ukraine wants more ports and vessel inspectors added — as well as extending the agreement for a year. The current agreement ends March 18. President Putin this week said he would halt participation in the New Start nuclear arms treaty, a nuclear arms control treaty with the United States. The first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was Feb. 24.

bushels vs. 1.809 billion estimated and 1.267 billion last year. The USDA’s history of ending stocks in February is to overestimate the stocks compared to the final number. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13 percent. The average farm price outlook for 2023-24 at $5.60 is $1.10 lower than for 2022-23.

There weren’t any export sales flashes this week and both the weekly ethanol and export sales reports were delayed a day by the holiday. Weekly export sales were within expectations and the lowest in six weeks at 32.4 million bushels. Total cumulative exports are 1.13 billion bushels and remain 40 percent behind last year when the USDA is forecasting a 22 percent decline in year-on-year exports. We need to average 26.3 million bushels of sales per week to ring the bell on USDA’s outlook. Weekly export inspections at 622,800 metric tons were at the low end of expectations and cumulative inspections are running 36.6 percent behind last year. The USDA has exports down 22 percent year-on-year.

Weekly ethanol production was up 15,000 barrels per day at a nine-week high of 1.029 million bpd. This is still below the pace needed to meet USDA forecasts. Ethanol stocks were up 249,000 barrels at 25.6 million barrels. Net margins improved 2 cents to 15 cents per gallon. Gasoline demand was at an eight-week high at 8.9 million bpd. Gasoline demand over the last four weeks has averaged 1.2 percent below last year.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut their Argentine corn production forecast by 3.5 million metric tons to 41 mmt. The USDA is at 47 mmt and will be expected to play catch-up on the March World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. The BAGE had Argentina’s pollination at 61 percent vs. 74 percent on average. The corn rating fell 2 percent to 9 percent good/excellent. AgRural said over half of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil’s second and

Outlook: A major winter storm across the upper Midwest garnered a lot attention this week with not much fresh for the markets. The number of traders may have been limited in the first half of the week with the last vestiges of Mardi Gras winding up before Ash Wednesday. The three major crops of corn, soybeans, and wheat total acres were estimated by the USDA at 228 million acres, up 6.2 million acres from last year. Prevent planted acres are expected to be below the last two years. Cotton acres are anticipated to be slashed to 10.9 million acres, down from 13.8 million acres last year. The first “survey based” acreage estimates will come on the Prospective Planting report on March 31.

Corn this week plunged below the recent trading range and back to December’s lows. Without bottompicking or fresh bullish news, the next downside support will be the January low which was $6.48.25 in the May contract. The December contract crashed to prices not seen since early August. The December low in August was $5.64 per bushel.

For the week, May corn plunged 28.25 cents to $6.49.25, July dropped 27.25 cents to $6.38.75, and December was 19.5 cents lower at $5.76.25 per bushel.

SOYBEANS — Soybeans gapped higher in postholiday trading after reports of frost in Argentina and limited rainfall events. The gaps were filled later in the week in post-USDA Forum trading. Brazil’s soybean harvest is behind the average pace, but it is expected to move ahead with sporadic rain interruptions. The two week forecast for Argentina is a return to hot, dry conditions.

May soybeans surged to highs not seen since last June and November not seen since mid-January. The May contract has been stymied at the $15.50 per bushel level several times and again fell back before touching it. The November contract traded above $14.00 per bushel, but couldn’t muster the strength to close above it.

The USDA Outlook Forum showed 2023-24 U.S. soybean acreage at 87.5 million acres vs. 88.6 million acres estimated and 87.5 million acres last year. The February soybean acreage number has been above the final acreage number in all of the last five years.