High feed prices, slumping income won’t deter cow buying

This column was written for the marketing week ending April 21.

The spring flush is upon us, but farm milk tanks are not exactly bulging. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s preliminary data shows March output at 19.8 billion pounds, up 2.1 billion from February, but only 90 million pounds or 0.5 percent above March 2022, and less than the 1.1 percent increase in February.

Mielke Market Weekly

The 24-state March total, at 18.9 billion pounds, was up 1.9 billion pounds from February and up 0.6 percent from a year ago. The February 50-state total was revised up 51 million pounds, while the 24-state total was revised up 48 million pounds.

By Lee Mielke

Milk output in first quarter 2023 totaled 56.8 million pounds, up 1 percent from 2022, with cow numbers at 9.42 million, up 20,000 from fourth quarter 2022 and 40,000 more than first quarter 2022.

Farmers have added cows, however, despite the high feed prices and falling milk income. Cow numbers totaled 9.435 million, up 6,000 head from the February count which was revised up 12,000 head, 28,000 more than in January, and up 31,000 from a year ago. This makes for the largest dairy herd since August 2021. The 24-state count was also up 6,000 from February and 44,000 above a year ago, largest since July 2021.

Output per cow averaged 2,099 pounds, up 3 pounds or 0.1 percent from March 2022.

California, battered by heavy rains and flooding in February and March, saw March milk drop to 3.6 billion pounds, down 75 million pounds or 2 percent from a year ago. Output per cow fell 45 pounds, far outweighing the 1,000-cow increase. Wisconsin output totaled 2.7 billion pounds, up 11 million pounds or 0.4 percent from a year ago, thanks to a 15-pound gain per cow offsetting the loss of 4,000 cows.

Texas was up 4.7 percent, thanks to 17,000 more cows and a 45-pound gain per cow. The fire at a dairy near Dimmitt on April 10 claimed some 18,000 cows. The cow loss will register in next month’s report. However, milk output may or may not, as milk in the state was already being dumped due to the excessive supply.

Idaho milk was up 3.1 percent on 15,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow. Florida again registered the biggest loss, down 5.5 percent, on 7,000 fewer cows, though output per cow was up 30 pounds. Michigan was up 2.9 percent thanks to a 25-pound gain per cow and 8,000 more cows.

Minnesota was up 1.2 percent on a 20-pound gain per cow and 1,000 more cows. New Mexico was down 4.4 percent on 14,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was up five pounds New York was up 2.1 percent on 10,000 more cows and 10 pounds more per cow.

Oregon was down 2.6 percent on a loss of 3,000 cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Pennsylvania was off 0.2 percent on a loss of 1,000 cows. Output per cow was unchanged. South Dakota was up 7 percent, thanks to 13,000 more cows offsetting a 10-pound loss per cow. Vermont was down 0.9 percent on a 10-pound drop per cow. Washington State was down 1.6 percent on 5,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was up five pounds.

StoneX reported that milk components improved in March after being weak in January and February. Combined fat and protein was up 0.7 percent from last year after being up just 0.3 percent in February.

HighGround Dairy observed, “With heavy livestock slaughter through the first three months of 2023, it is surprising that the U.S. milking herd continues to grow.”

Dairy culling continues to outpace that of a year ago. The latest Livestock Slaughter report shows an estimated 306,100 head were sent to slaughter under federal inspection in March. This is up 39,600 from February and 8,900 or 2.3 percent above March 2022.

The week ending April 8 saw 61,700 head go to slaughter, down 5,100 from the previous week, but 800 or 1.3 percent more than a year ago. Year-todate, 933,200 cows have been culled, up 33,400 or 3.7 percent above a year ago. StoneX points out that, so far this year, only two weeks of slaughter were below year-ago levels.

“Beef supplies in the United States are tight,” says HighGround Dairy, “and after spring flush, when production drops, farmers may be even more motivated to send lower-producing cows to processing plants to manage expenses against lower milk prices and higher feed costs.”

The USDA’s monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook projects U.S. milk cows will average 9.400 million head, 10,000 higher than last month’s forecast. The annual milk-per-cow projection was lowered 10 pounds from last month to an average 24,335 pounds per head.

The International dairy market looked a little more promising on April 18 as the Global Dairy Trade auction weighted average surprised the trade and reversed four successive declines, jumping 3.2 percent and the first GDT gain since Feb. 7.

Traders brought 50.1 million pounds of product to market, down from 52.5 million on April 4, and the average metric ton price advanced to $3,362 U.S., up from $3,227.00 on April 4.

All products offered moved higher led by skim milk powder, up 7 percent after falling 2.5 percent on April 4. Whole milk powder was up 1 percent following a 5.2 percent downfall. GDT cheddar was up

See MIELKE, pg. 13

Poster competition now open

The public is invited to participate in the International Dairy Federation World Dairy Summit (IDF WDS) 2023 Poster Competition, with posters featuring the 2023 Summit theme of “BE Dairy –Boundless Potential … Endless Possibilities.”

The Summit, to be held October 16-19 in Chicago, is dairy’s premier annual gathering and brings together more than 1000 dairy sector leaders from over 35 countries.

As an important part of knowledge exchange at the IDF WDS, all accepted posters will be displayed during the Summit and considered for the IDF WDS 2023 poster award. The U.S. Organizing Committee welcomes all types of posters including case studies, research, and commercial projects.

The winner of the Poster competition will receive a prize of $1,000. In addition, plaques will be present- ed to the winners of each of the seven poster categories which represent IDF’s major workstreams: Safety & Quality – Microbiology; Safety and Quality – Chemistry and Composition; Nutrition and Health; Animal Health and Farm Management; Dairy Technology; Environment and Sustainability; and Marketing and Economics.

Poster abstracts must be submitted online by June 1. For submission forms, abstract guidelines, and other information, visit https://idfwds2023.com/ idf2023/posters.

Poster candidates will receive an email notification of poster abstract acceptance by July 1, with final poster submissions due in pdf format by Sept. 1

This article was submitted by the International Dairy Federation. v