Grain Outlook Line to buy corn is very short

The following marketing analysis is for the week ending April 21.

CORN — We were treated to choppy trade early in the week in the corn market before bearish influences overwhelmed traders. An absence of fresh export sales, fund selling, and variable Midwestern weather pushed July prices to their lowest since late March. The December contract took out last month’s low and was nearly 25 cents off this week’s high. Early week strength came from weather that ranged from a winter blizzard to heavy rains with cooler temperatures.

More noise from Russia about not extending the Black Sea grain agreement beyond the May 18 expiration date added to supply uncertainty. Russia wants sanctions lifted to make it easier for them to sell their grain, fertilizer, etc. to customers. Russia interrupted grain inspections over the weekend before resuming them on April 18. The uncertainty over this region stays heightened. Some EU countries were halting the importation of cheap Ukrainian grains that were dampening grain prices. Poland reached an agreement where Ukrainian grain could transit through the country, but not unload the grain. Other countries were working through their plans. The EU was also preparing a plan to supplement payments to farmers in bordering states who were hurt by Ukrainian imports.

I will stay with my assumption that U.S. planting will proceed at an average pace. It’s estimated that as of April 23 U.S. corn planting will reach 15-20 percent complete. As of April 16, corn planting was 8 percent complete. Remember last year that by May 1 Minnesota had no corn planted, Illinois was 7 percent planted, and Wisconsin was 1 percent planted. All went on to have record yields.

The 90-day forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released this week didn’t forecast any growing season obstacles. Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is essentially planted with favorable weather in the short-term forecast. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged Argentina’s corn harvest at 15 percent complete vs. 27 percent complete on average.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture did not announce any fresh daily export sales flashes and